Food Security and Poverty Alleviation Under Changing Environmental
conditions: Challenges and Opportunities in Sudan
International Syposium
12-14 December 2011
Location Elfatih Tour, Khartoum , Sudan
Amel Mustafa Mubarak and Salah Mohamed Elawad
Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Khartoum , Sudan
29 July 2017
Contents (Part 1)
2
Contents (Part 2)
3
Resources - Land
Total arable land: 200 m fed
40 m fed (20%) currently under crop
Agriculture (3 sub-sectors) food / cash crops:
Average 2004-2010 (Source MoAF)
Agric sub-sector
Area (m fed.) % share
Irrigated
3.658
9
Mechanized rain-fed
13.120
33
Traditional rain-fed
23.352
58
Total
40.205
100
Problem Statement
1
2
3
The main Characteristics of Agriculture
Low and fluctuating production
Problems
High cost of production
Low productivity
inhibited
Agricultur
al Growth
Aggravated by the civil war
Frequent incidence of drought.
Poor soil and Water management
Inadequate and high cost of farm
credit
Series of development plans and programmes
5
Agricultural Productivity
Source: derived from data of the MoAF
Agricultural Productivity
Comparison of average sorghum yields in Sudan and other
Yield (kg/fed)
countries, 1994-2003
2000
1824
1651
1581
1500
1000
467
500
402
339
255
0
Aregentina America
Source: FAO data
China
Nigeria
Yemen
India
Sudan
Comparison of Cotton Yields (kg/fed) (lint)
System/Country
90/91
94/95
00/01
01/02
Egypt (irrigated)
298
353
389
400
Mali (rain-fed)
234
200
189
202
241
245
256
262
167
200
182
173
World Average
Sudan (irrigated)
Source: Abdeen M. Ali
Research Yields Farmer Yields
(av 1992/93-08/09)
Research
Yields
Farmer
Yields
Yields on Farms as
Proportion of
Research Yields
(kg/fed)
(kg/fed)
(percent)
Sorghum
540
42
8
Groundnut
546
186
34
Sesame
180
17
9
Crop
Source: ARC data/ MoAF
• Increasing agricultural production :
• - expansion of land
necessitates analyzing the economic
and environmental costs
• - investment in agricultural technologies
often limited by financial constraints
• The possibility of increasing production
through improving technical efficiency by
better use of farmers’ available resources
and technology is another option.
• Literature on Efficiency in Sudan reveals
that technical efficiency in the overall
Sudanese agriculture is low.
• Sorghum in western Sudan (0.65)
(Mohamed et al., 2008
• Sesame in Kordofan State (0.72)
(Mohamed et al., 2008a)
• Given the importance of wheat as one of the
important food crop and its contribution to food
security in Sudan and as an import substitute ,
in 2008 the Department of Agricultural
Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of
Khartoum conducted many researches at M.Sc.
level under the theme wheat technical efficiency
to measure and evaluate the technical efficiency
of wheat production in different areas in Sudan
Objectives of the study:
The overall objectives of this study are to:
- measure and evaluate the technical
efficiency of wheat production in different
areas in Sudan .
-and to determine the major factors that
affecting or constraining the technical
efficiency of wheat production.
Research methodology:
• Sources of Data:
• Primary and secondary data will be used to
•
fulfill the objective of the study. Primary data
collected by mean of a questionnaire, 54 tenants
were interviewed. The primary data included
basic information about the socio-economic
characteristic, area of the tenancy, location of
the tenancy, agricultural practices , etc.
Secondary data collected from different
institutional sources.
Data analysis:
The objectives of this study will be achieved by
using the Stochastic Frontier Production (SFP)
model. Stochastic frontier production analysis is
method of estimating frontier function involving
the use of econometric and thereby measuring
the efficiency of production. Economic efficiency
is generally defined as the ability of a production
organization to produce a well–specified output
at the minimum cost. In our study two models
will be used:
Efficiency model:
• This model includes the tenant’s factors
affecting the tenant technical efficiency for
wheat production. Stochastic production
frontier model of the Cobb-Douglas form
will be used. The model is written as
follows:
• lnyi =βo+ β1*D1xi1+ ∑ βjlnxij+vi-ui
•
J=1
Inefficiency effect model:
• As mentioned above in the tenants model, ui in
•
the stochastic production frontier model is anon
negative random variable, associated with the
tenants' technical inefficiency in production and
assumed to be independently distributed, such
that the technical in efficiency effect for the ith
tenant, ui, will be obtained by truncating (at
zero) of the normal distribution with mean, μi,
and variance, δ2, such that
μi = δ0 +∑ δs Zs
Efficiency model: lnyi =βo+ β1*D1xi1+ ∑ βjlnxij+vi-ui
J=1
Inefficiency model μi = δ0 +∑ δs Zs
Where
lnyi
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
D1 Xi6
X7
β1 and
βj
vi
ui
9
Community ,Social And
Personal Services
Z1i
= Gender
Z2i
= Tenants age;
Z3i
= level of education;
= Planted area under wheat crop;
Z4i
Z4i = Marital status
= Working time in field hr/day;
Z5i
= Tenants experience;
= the natural logarithm of wheat yield in
sack/feddan
= Agricultural income;
= Non-agricultural income;
= Pest infestation;
Z6i
= Family size;
= dummy variable for sowing date
= Varieties;
Z7i
= Number of in sufficient irrigation
are unknown parameters to be estimated
Z8i
= Location of the farm
δs and
δs2
are unknown parameters to be
estimated
the statistical error (+,-,0)
non negative random variable associated with the
tenants technical inefficiency
Table 1: Wheat Technical Efficiency in Different Region in the Sudan
Author
Region
Mean Technical
Efficiency
El Moez Abdel Allah
Gezira Scheme (2008)
0.73
Hamza Mohamed
White Nile Pump Scheme
0.69
(2008)
Hassan Hussein
Rahad Scheme (2009)
0.70
Rama Abd Elkarim
North of Gezira (2011)
0.69
Uthaila Abd Elrazig
Central Gezira
0.63
Manal Osman
Northern State -
0.72
Source : unpublished M.Sc. theses at Department of Agricultural Economics
• These researches have shown that the
mean technical efficiency of producing
wheat ranging between o.63 and
0.73(Table 1) and that each region had
unique factors that constraining wheat
production. This mean that wheat
production could have been increased by
27 -37 percent at the same level of inputs
had farmers been technically efficient.
Factors affecting efficiency
• Number of irrigation.
• Timing of finance
• working time in the field.
• Sowing date
• varieties
• educational level.
• skill
• These study recommends that technical
efficiency in the Sudanese agricultural
sector needs to be improved by enhancing
labor skills. That requires more effective
extension services besides employing
more advanced farming practices and
improved seeds.
• Based on this background, further
assessment and elaboration on the
efficiency issue in different agricultural
crops at different region in the Sudan is
needed in order to reflect its particular
importance and the benefits of exploiting
the available and limited resources in the
Sudanese agriculture to the policy makers
and all concerned people with objective of
Improved resource use efficiency .