The Effects of Portfolio Choice on Retirement Wealth Outcomes

Who Chooses Defined
Contribution Plans?
Jeffrey R. Brown
University of Illinois and NBER
Scott J. Weisbenner
University of Illinois and NBER
RRC Annual Conference
August 10, 2006
1
Why care who chooses Defined
Contribution (DC) plans?
 Numerous proposals to partially replace DB
benefits provided by Social Security with
personal retirement accounts

In many proposals, participation in personal accounts is
voluntary
 To assess welfare implications and timing of
expenditures of Social Security reform
proposals it is important to understand who
would opt to participate in personal accounts
2
Our Research Design
 Examine a sample of individuals that have to
make an explicit choice between DB and DC
plans
 This choice is important as:


Combined employee & employer contributions
are at least 14.6% of wages for these individuals
Earnings from this employment are NOT
covered by Social Security
3
Who is our sample?
 There are seven states whose public-sector
employees do not participate in Social Security

California, Colorado, ILLINOIS, Louisiana,
Massachusetts, Ohio, and Texas
 We have administrative data provided by the State
Universities Retirement System (SURS) of Illinois

Established 1941, covers all faculty and support staff of
Illinois higher public education including universities
and community colleges
4
Decision faced by
SURS-covered employees
 Within first six months of employment, are given
opportunity to make a one-time, irrevocable choice
among three retirement plans:



Traditional DB plan: standard formula-based DB plan
Portable DB plan: somewhat less generous than
traditional DB if retire from the system, but much more
generous if take an early lump-sum distribution
Self-Managed Plan: standard self-directed DC plan
 If make no decision within 6 months, are defaulted
into the Traditional DB plan
5
Our Focus in This Paper
 What choices do individuals make?
 What worker characteristics are correlated
with retirement plan choice?
6
Brief Background on SURS
 Prior to 1998, all SURS employees’ covered by
the Traditional DB plan
 In 1997, Illinois legislature passed a law
allowing participating employees a choice of
three plans
 These new choices adopted by most employers
sometime in 1998
 Our sample is 45,000 new hires over period
1999-2004
7
Basics on the three options
 Important differences in rate of return,
amount of employer matching contributions,
handling of “refunds” across the three plans
 Vesting period for employer contributions is
5 years
 Employee contributions are 8% of salary
under all three plans (employer contributions
at least 6.6% of salary)
8
Traditional DB Plan
 Very generous if are long-tenured employee and
retire within the system

Annuity retirement benefit is the highest amount
calculated under two different formulas
 Is NOT generous if leave the SURS system before
retirement and take a “refund”

Regardless of vesting status, will receive employee
contributions (plus a 4.5% return) but NOT employer
contributions
 Is the default option if do not make a choice
9
Portable DB Plan
 Retirement benefits from the Portable DB plan are
not as generous as those from the Traditional plan
for those who retire within the system
 Big difference in treatment for those who leave the
system before retirement


If leave within five years, receive own contributions
(grossed up at an Effective Interest Rate that has been 810% over the past 25 years)
If leave with tenure of 5+ years, receive own
contributions plus a dollar-for-dollar employer match
10
SMP (DC plan)
 Entirely participant-directed DC plan
 Participants choose from a variety of mutual
funds provided by TIAA-CREF and Fidelity
 Balance in account depends on asset returns
and vesting status



If leave system in less than five years, lose employer
contributions
If leave system with tenure of 5+ years, leave with
employee and employer contributions
Employer contributions are 6.6% of salary or 0.825-forone match
11
Summary
 Traditional DB plan a bad deal for shorttimers, very good deal for long-tenure
employees
 Portable DB plan historically offers an
attractive rate of return with a larger
employer match than the SMP (DC plan)
12
Plan Choice, 1999-2004
SMP
15%
Portable DB
19%
Traditional DB
66%
Enrollment in SMP (DC plan)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Full Sample
Enrollment in SMP (DC plan)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Full Sample
University
Academic
Enrollment in SMP (DC plan)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Full Sample
University
Academic
University
Academic
$100K+
Enrollment in SMP (DC plan)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Full Sample
University
Academic
University
Academic
$100K+
Jeff
Enrollment in SMP (DC plan)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Full Sample
University
Academic
University
Academic
$100K+
Jeff
Scott
Enrollment in SMP (DC plan)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Full Sample
University
Academic
University
Academic
$100K+
Jeff
Scott
SURS
Framing of Plan Choices
SMP
DC
DC or
DB?
Portable
DB
Portable
or not?
Traditional
Enrollment in Portable DB Plan
50
40
30
20
10
0
Full Sample
University Academic University Academic
$100K+
SURS
Traditional DB Plan
 Is the default plan if no choice made in 6 months
 Vast majority of Traditional DB plan enrollment is
via the default


From 1999-2004, 56% of participants default into the
Traditional DB plan (10% actively choose the Traditional
DB plan)
Percent defaulting has grown over time
 Is the Traditional DB plan the optimal choice for
the defaulters?
22
Percent of 1999 & 2000 Cohorts that
Defaulted into Traditional DB Plan
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Left in < 5 Years
Left in 5+ Years
Still in System
Empirical Findings
 More highly educated (university academics) and
higher income are more likely to select DC plan
 Young workers and those with low income are more
likely to default into retirement plan choice
 Those that ex post left before vesting more likely to
have defaulted into retirement plan choice
 Framing of retirement plan choices likely important
(DB vs. DC as opposed to 3 plans simultaneously)
24
Next Steps
 Missing from administrative data but relevant for
retirement plan choice:





Expectations of asset returns
Confidence in investment ability
Assessment of political risk of DB plan rate of return
Tenure expectations
Pension coverage of spouse
 Currently putting together focus groups (thanks SSA!)
to delve into these issues with participants with plans to
then administer a much broader survey to shed more
light on motivations for pension plan choice
25