1. Forecasts of UND1X at different times
and actual outcome
Annual percentage change
4
4
UND1X, outcome
Inflation Report 2004:4
Inflation Report 2003:1
Inflation Report 2002:1
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2. Productivity growth in the business sector since
1980 and HP trend
Annual percentage change
8
8
Business sector
Forecast
HP-trend
7
6
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-4
1981
1981-1990:
1.7%
1984
1987
1991-1994:
2.8%
1990
1993
1995-2000:
3.2%
1996
1999
-3
2001-2004:
3.0%
2002
-4
2005
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the
3. Forecasts of CPI inflation in 2004 at various
times: the Riksbank and an average of other
forecasters
Annual average
3.0
3.0
Riksbank
Average of other forecasters
Outcome (0.5)
Lowest forecast
Highest forecast
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
0.0
Dec-04
Sources: Consensus Inc., Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
4. The repo rate according to the NIER’s forecasts
in 2002-2003 and the actual repo rate
Per cent
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Jan-02
2.5
M arch 2002
August 2002
M arch 2003
August 2003
NIER's repo rate
Repo rate
2.0
1.5
1.0
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Sources: NIER and the Riksbank
5. UND1X and CPI
Annual percentage change
6
6
UND1X
5
5
CPI
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
6. GDP for the United States and euro area
Annual percentage change
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
GDP, United States
-1
-1
Forecast United States
-2
GDP, euro area
-2
-3
Forecast euro area
-3
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources. Eurostat, the US Department of Commerce and the Riksbank
7.UND1X: outcome and forecast in
the main scenario
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
UND1X
Inflation Report 2005:1
Inflation Report 2004:4
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 1. GDP by expenditure
Annual percentage change
GDP by expenditure
Private consumption
Government
consumption
Gross fixed capital
formation
Change in inventories
Exports
Imports
GDP at market prices
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1.5
0.8
1.8
0.3
2.7
1.2
3.0
1.4
3.3
0.6
-1.5
5.1
8.0
5.8
4.5
0.2
5
4.9
-0.3
10.2
6.7
0.0
6.6
7.5
0.0
6.1
6.6
0.0
6.0
6.7
1.5
3.5
3.2
3.2
2.8
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the