French Presidential elections – 2nd Round
Summary:
On 6 May, François Hollande was elected as President of France with 51.7% of expressed
votes1.
Following the first round, held on 22 April 2012, the remaining candidates to the presidential
election were the socialist candidate François Hollande (28.63%), and the liberal
incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy (27.08%).
François Hollande received the support of the left and center right candidates between the two
rounds.
The new government will probably not be known before the end of this week. The
transition between the current and newly elected president is provided by the
Constitution to take place a few days after the elections. Depending on the discussions
with Nicolas Sarkozy, François Hollande could take office at the beginning of next week. It
is likely that only a provisional Government will be nominated, to lead the campaign for
the legislative elections that will take place in June (10th and 17th). Until then, the parliament
will be in recess. With the new National Assembly elected on June 17th, a definitive and
comprehensive Government will be appointed. The first legislative measures will be initiated by
a Parliament planned to seat until August 2nd for an extraordinary session before leaving for the
summer recess, and which will resume working in ordinary session on October 1st.
The Socialist party will be in a good position to win the legislative elections as it never happened
in the history of the French 5th Republic that the winning President does not also win the
following legislative elections2. It is also worth reminding that the Senate already has a Socialist
majority, therefore if such a majority was also to be elected at the National Assembly, the
Socialist President would have a large margin of maneuver.
In any case, in addition to the fact that François Hollande’s political program remains very
general, providing for a reduction of the public deficit but also for growth-oriented measures,
1
This percentage is estimation at this stage, the exact final numbers will be known in the course of Monday 7th.
2
With a nuance for the 1988 legislative when the Socialist party and its allies didn’t win an absolute majority and had to negotiate case by
case with either the center right or the Communist parties to pass laws.
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his policies will also depend on the agreements and policies decided with the European
partners, notably Germany and Italy.
In terms of the French political landscape, a revamping of the right wing is foreseen, with
dissensions likely to arise after Nicolas Sarkozy’s fall as a leader of the UMP (the main right wing
party), the high score of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right party, at the first round of the
elections, and the support to François Hollande expressed by François Bayrou, leader of the
Center party, between the two rounds of the elections.
François Hollande’s broad political margin of manoeuver
It is important to note that François Hollande is not bound by conditions or agreements
negotiated with other parties in order to win the elections. Due to the very good results at
the first round, and the fact that the polls had been foreseeing his victory for a while, he did not
have to negotiate in order to make allies and ensure his election. He therefore has a large margin
on manoeuver in terms of policies (except if the legislative elections were to give a right-wing
majority to the National Assembly, which is unlikely to, but could still happen).
Right after the first round, Eva Joly, candidate of the Greens Party and current chair Committee
on Development in the European Parliament and Jean-Luc Melenchon, candidate of the Left
Front Party and also a member of the European Party immediately backed Mr. Hollande.
Moreover, the support of these two left-wing candidates came without conditions attached,
therefore, except an agreement signed between the Socialist Party and the Green Party before
the beginning of the campaign, and that François Hollande never backed, he is not bound by any
pre-conditions coming from the far-left.
In addition, just before the second round, the center-right candidate, François Bayrou,
announced for the first time that he would personally vote for François Hollande, without
conditions attached, adding that this decision was motivated by the populist tone of Mr.
Sarkozy’s campaign, but that it did not mean that he would support Mr. Hollande’s socialist
policies, especially on the economic side. Corinne Le Page, well know center leader and Member
of the European Parliament and former Minister of Environment, alongside with other Center
right leaders, also clearly expressed her support to Mr. Hollande,
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221 Rue de la Loi
1040 Brussels – Belgium
O. +32 2 231 71 31
F. +32 2 231 71 39
11-17 Rue de l’Amiral Hamelin
75116 Paris - France
O. +32 2 231 71 31
F. +32 2 231 71 39
Finally, Marine le Pen, leader of the National Front (far-right) called for her electors to abstain
voting for one or the other candidate at the second round.
Measures that could be expected at European level:
In spite of some concerns expressed at the EU level regarding the foreseen election of François
Hollande, a clear dynamic emerging at the EU level in favor of a shift towards the growthsupportive policies advocated by Mr. Hollande has been observed those past weeks, which
could bridge the gap between his stance and the current dominance of right-wing parties in
Europe.
The absence of an agreement with the rest of the left-wing to win their support, combined with
the support expressed by François Bayrou, leader of the Center-Party and strong supporter of
EU, indicate that the policies followed by François Hollande are likely to be rather
moderate, looking for a consensual approach notably at the European level, where he has to
find a compromise with the other EU leaders. Non-official information gathered last week
mentioned a potential tour to European most important capitals in the upcoming two weeks in
order to show his willingness to cooperate with the other EU leaders and find consensus. In
addition, François Hollande’s team announced that once elected, his first gesture would be
to give a phone call to Angela Merkel right after the elections on Sunday night.
The main measure he had announced, whose applicability will depend on the cooperation of the
other EU leaders, is the adding of a “growth package” to the fiscal compact treaty, as
“although discipline was needed, it did not bring growth”. Four mechanisms could support the
growth package if a consensus is found: the emission of Eurobonds (to finance infrastructure
projects and not to guarantee the public debt of other Member States), the mobilization of
European structural funds, the mobilization of European Development Bank funds, and the
creation of a financial transactions tax (with the last one being already a European Commission’s
proposal, currently discussed at the European Parliament).
In the past two weeks, a shift could be observed in the main European policy makers’ speeches,
ascertaining the need for growth, yet making it clear that they would not back a renegotiation of
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221 Rue de la Loi
1040 Brussels – Belgium
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F. +32 2 231 71 39
11-17 Rue de l’Amiral Hamelin
75116 Paris - France
O. +32 2 231 71 31
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the fiscal compact treaty. Angela Merkel, German Chancellor implied that she would be open
to discussing growth measures. Mario Monti, Italy Prime-minister, agreed that the demand
side of the economy needs a boost, though remains intransigent on Keynesian stimuli. Mario
Draghi, President European Central Bank, recently said that Europe has a fiscal compact, but
is lacking a growth compact. Last week, Herman Von Rompuy, President of the European
Council, called for a “Dinner for Growth” with the EU leaders before June, which might provide
the opportunity to reach a compromise (between Germany, Italy and France) on the application
of the already agreed austerity measures against the introduction of a “growth package” into the
Treaty.
As a first conclusion at this stage, this indicates that the EU fiscal compact already agreed on
should not be challenged and that it is very likely that the upcoming discussions will be very
political and high level.
Measures that could be expected at French level:
François Hollande announced a programme of reducing the public deficit to 3% of GDP by
the end of his mandate, which would be done both by taxation measures (he already
announced a tax increase for the highest incomes) and limiting fiscal niches as well as through
savings. However, he also committed to increase the number of civil servants by 12,000 in
education, and respectively 1,000 in justice, police and army, without saying whether he would
hire new people or reorganize affectations within the administration.
Throughout his campaign he called for new policies that would allow boosting employment and
growth. He announced the set-up of a Public bank of investments which would particularly
support SMEs, and also the adoption of incentive measures that would support the French
industry and encourage re-localization. In addition, he said during the campaign that his
priorities would be to introduce policies in favor of social justice and youth.
Possible Mutations on the French Political Scene:
Mr. Hollande’s election was anticipated, with the polls having given him victorious almost all
along the presidential campaign, both before and after a quite aggressive, although technical,
debate between the two remaining candidates.
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221 Rue de la Loi
1040 Brussels – Belgium
O. +32 2 231 71 31
F. +32 2 231 71 39
11-17 Rue de l’Amiral Hamelin
75116 Paris - France
O. +32 2 231 71 31
F. +32 2 231 71 39
There is a high chance that he will also nominate a Prime Minister from his own Party,
who will then form a government from the same majority. The Socialists already hold the
majority at the Senate, and might gain it at the National Assembly too, in the upcoming
legislative elections (June 2012).
Except for an already signed agreement with the Greens, Socialists may not need to negotiate
with other parties the nomination of the Ministers. However, Jean-Luc Melenchon (Left Front
Party) and François Bayrou (Centre-Democratic Party), two other runners who had endorsed
the Socialist candidate, might also look to be involved in various decision-making instances. So
far, only the Left Front Party made a clear proposal to Socialists concerning the second
legislative round.
The parties which will constitute the opposition are the liberal party (UMP) and the extreme
right party (FN - National Front), to which we can add part of the Centre-Democratic Party, since
François Bayrou has made clear that he does not support the political program presented by
François Hollande, and that he voted for him only at a “personal level”, due to the aggressive and
far-right oriented campaign made by Nicolas Sarkozy between the two rounds of the elections.
As for the two right-wing Parties (UMP and FN), a traditional quarantine line has been kept
between the two since the ‘6Os. However, it is possible to imagine a scenario in which they reach
an agreement, which, should it happen, would most likely be secret. The far-right candidate
Marine Le Pen, since she reached the third place in the first round of the election, will most likely
work towards imposing her party as the new main right-wing force. She already called for a
blank vote in the second round, while pursuing her criticisms towards Mr Sarkozy’s five-year of
presidency as well as other attacks.
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