Activity in the political echo chamber fails to
boost Labour in the polls
A Kantar Public view on the 2017 General Election
16th May 2017
NOTE TO EDITORS: In order to have a better understanding of electoral trends and movements and to
highlight the key factors of confidence and/or uncertainties our electoral research and analyses are
based on multiple sources (polls and social media).
Voting intentions reflect the state of the opinion at the moment when the interviews were realised and should therefore not
be considered as predictive of the final result of the election.
This week’s research from Kantar Public sheds light on the extent to which voters live in political echo
chambers. Most voters believe that their social circles consist of people who share similar political opinions –
three-quarters of Conservative supporters (75%) and two-thirds of Labour supporters (69%) think that their
party would win the general election if it was just their friends and family voting.
This echo chamber is even more pronounced in the online world with search engines and social media sites
tailoring content deemed relevant to each individual user’s interests and political affiliation. It is quite possible
that individuals who are very engaged online – surrounded by people with similar views, and generally only
seeing news stories that chime with their own opinions – will be surprised by the outcome of the General
Election.
The Labour party is far more active online than its counterparts. For example, on Facebook it has posted more
than three times as many articles as the Conservative party, received more than three times as many ‘likes’,
and seen these articles shared at more than double the rate. The Liberal Democrats are also less active than
the Labour party on both Twitter and Facebook, and far fewer engage with their content than with that posted
by Labour. However, this intense online engagement is not translating into vote share. Conservative support is
currently on 47% (+3) and they remain significantly ahead of Labour who are on 29% (+1), as well as the Lib
Dems on 8% (-3) and UKIP on 6% (-2).
Support for the Labour party remains strongest among those aged 18 to 24 (52% of likely voters of this age
group support Labour compared with 23% who support the Conservatives). However, this age group remains
the least likely to turn out in the election, with only one in seven (14%) saying they will definitely vote. The
challenge for the Labour party remains how to encourage this age group to vote in the election. With this in
mind, Kantar Millward Brown has conducted analysis on how best to communicate and engage with younger
voters.
Luke Taylor, Head of Social and Political Attitudes at Kantar Public UK, comments: “The Conservative party
look set to perform even better in the General Election than in the recent local elections. However, it should be
noted that while the Conservative party has what appears to be an unassailable lead, Other parties can still
narrow the gap as more than one-in-ten (12%) of ‘likely voters’ in the election are still undecided.”
“It should also be noted that both the Green Party and UKIP are not standing candidates in all constituencies.
Not all of their supporters will be able to vote for them on the 8th of June and they are therefore likely to
perform less well than our polls currently suggest. These voters are another potential opportunity area for the
parties looking to close the gap to the Conservatives.”
Methodological note
SURVEY
Download the survey data and further details on the methodological approach here.
1,201 interviews were conducted online among adults living in Great Britain between 11th May 2017 and 15th May 2017.
Interviews were conducted using the Kantar TNS Omnibus, which uses the Lightspeed access panel as its sample source.
The data was weighted to match population totals for age, gender, working status, 2015 General Election voting patterns,
2016 EU referendum voting patterns, education, region, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. Our voting
intention figures have been adjusted to take into account likely turnout patterns at the General Election
SOCIAL MEDIA
Download the social media data and further details on the methodological approach here.
The Facebook analysis is based on the interactions which Facebook users have had with content posted on the official
Facebook pages of the main political parties and their leaders between 24th April and 14th May.
The Twitter analysis is based on the “buzz” generated by original tweets authored by the official Twitter accounts of the
main political parties and their leaders between 24th April and 14th May.
Contacts
Kantar Public UK
Luke Taylor
Tel: 020 7656 5799
Mail: [email protected]
Kantar
Edmund Gemmell
Tel: 020 7656 5759 / 07825 281352
Mail: [email protected]
Weblink
http://uk.kantar.com/ge2017
Any use or mention of this research must credit Kantar Public
Other recent similar research
In France: http://fr.kantar.com/opinion-publique/
In Germany: http://www.infratest-dimap.de/ & https://www.tns-infratest.com/sofo/
In Poland: http://www.tnsglobal.pl/monitor/
Reach our experts:
Kantar Public UK
Luke Taylor
Tel: +44 020 7656 5799
Mail:
luke.taylor@kantarpubli
c.com
Kantar Public Germany
Nico Siegel
Tel: +49 89 5600 1756
Mail:
[email protected]
m
Kantar Public Korea
Chung Jinwoo
Tel: +82 2 3779 0541
Mail:
Jinwoo.Chung@kantar
public.com
Kantar Public Poland
Urszula Krassowska
Tel: +48 22 598 98 98
Mail:
Urszula.krassowska@kanta
rpublic.com
Kantar Public France
Emmanuel Riviere
Tel: +33 1 40 92 46 30
Mail:
emmanuel.riviere@kantar
public.com
Twitter:
@emmanuelriviere
Kantar Public Brussels
Nicolas Becuwe
Tel: +3226617214
Mail:
nicolas.becuwe@kantarp
ublic.com
Twitter: @nicolasbecuwe
Kantar Public
Netherlands
Tim de Beer
Tel: +31 (20) 5225 399
Mail:
tim.de.beer@kantarpubl
ic.com
Twitter: @timbebeer79
Kantar Public Global
Edouard Lecerf
Tel: +33 1 40 92 45 06
Mail:
edouard.lecerf@kantar
public.com
Twitter: @edouardlecerf
Kantar Public (in the UK, formerly TNS BMRB) provides strategic advice to political parties, candidates,
media, institutions and research centres, building on our deep knowledge of electoral trends and drawing on
our broad portfolio of tools and methods. We offer expertise at each stage of the electoral cycle from electoral
segmentation and strategy through to exit polling and post-electoral research.
Our political polling experts measure and analyse voting intentions and provide strategic advice to candidates.
We lead the market in evaluating the potential of candidates and political parties, supporting election night
media coverage and delivering accurate estimates of real votes cast.