Climate change impact on
winter wheat yield
and nitrogen leaching
Preliminary analysis
Tove Heidmann & Jørgen E. Olesen
Department of Agroecology
U N I V E R S I T Y O F AAR H U S
Faculty of Agricultural Sciences
Methods
 Daisy model
 Simulations for selected regions in
Europe
 Baseline climate data from
MARS/STAT database at JRC (19762004)
 Future climate data from ENSEMBLES
 Two crops: winter wheat and spring
barley
MARS/STAT grid
Thresholds
 20 % decrease in yield
 10 % decrease in yield
 Nitrogen leaching > 25 kg N/ha
Example - preliminary work
 Future climate data from perturbed
physics experiment (2050-70)
 Two locations: Denmark and South
Germany
 Crop: winter wheat
 Fertilisation: optimum N rate
 Soil type: same soil type at both sites
(14 % clay in top soil)
Cumulative probability plot of
temperature change and
precipitation change
South Germany 2050-70
Denmark 2050-70
25
15
90-100
0
-5
20
70-80
15
60-70
10
50-60
40-50
5
30-40
0
20-30
-5
10-20
-10
1
2
3
4
5
Tem perature change (oC)
6
0-10
-10
1
2
3
4
5
Tem perature change
(oC)
6
Precipitation change (%)
5
Precipitation change (%)
10
90-100
80-90
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
Changes in climate
 South Germany:
 Precipitation: -15, -10, -5, 0, +5, +10, +15 %
 Temperature: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 oC
 Denmark
 Precipitation: -10, -5, 0, +5, +10, +15, +20,
+25 %
 Temperature: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 oC
Changes in climate
 Two different situations
 Precipitation evenly distributed on all months
 Seasonal variation in precipitation included
Seasonal variation in climate
(from Ruosteenoja et al., 2003)
Including seasonal variation in
precipitation distribution
South Germany
 Decrease:
 Decrease in precipitation during May – Nov.
(larger decrease during Jul. – Aug.)
 Unchanged precipitation during Dec. – Feb.
 Increase
 Unchanged precipitation during Jun. – Aug.
 Increase in precipitation during the rest of the
period (larger increase during Dec. – Feb.)
South Germany, 20% yield decrease
South Germany
Uniform precipitation distribution
15
5
0
-5
-10
Precipitation change (%)
10
-15
0
1
2
3
4
5
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
6
Temperature change (oC)
South Germany
Seasonal precipitation distribution
15
5
0
-5
-10
-15
0
1
2
3
4
5
Temperature change (oC)
6
Precipitation change (%)
10
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
South Germany, 10 % yield decrease
South Germany
Uniform precipitation distribution
10
5
0
-5
-10
Precipitaiton change (%)
15
-15
0
1
2
3
4
5
90-100
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
6
0-10
Temperature change (oC)
South Germany
Seasonal precipitation distribution
15
5
0
-5
-10
-15
0
1
2
3
4
5
Temperature change (oC)
6
Precipitation change (%)
10
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
South Germany,
Leaching > 25 kg N/ha
South Germany
Uniform precipitation distribution
10
5
0
-5
-10
Precipitation change (%)
15
-15
0
1
2
3
4
5
35-40
30-35
25-30
20-25
15-20
10-15
5-10
0-5
6
Temperature change (oC)
South Germany
Seasonal precipitation distribution
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Temperature change (oC)
Precipitation change (%)
15
45-50
40-45
35-40
30-35
25-30
20-25
15-20
10-15
5-10
0-5
Seasonal variation in climate
(from Ruosteenoja et al., 2003)
Including seasonal variation in
precipitation distribution
Denmark
 Increase:
 Increase in precipitation during Sep. – May
 Decrease in precipitation during Jun. – Aug.
 Decrease:
 All the decrease in Jun. – Aug.
 The rest of the months unchanged
Denmark, 20 % yield decrease
Precipitation
change (%)
Denmark
Uniform precipitation distribution
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Precipitation
change (%)
Temperature
change (oC)
6
30-40
20-30
90-100
70-80
0
5
40-50
80-90
5
4
50-60
20
10
3
60-70
25
15
2
70-80
0-10
Denmark
Seasonal precipitation distribution
1
80-90
10-20
Temperature
chagnge (oC)
0
90-100
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
-5
20-30
-10
10-20
0-10
Denmark, 10 % yield decrease
Denmark
Uniform precipitation distribution
25
90-100
20
Precipitation
change (%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
0
1
2
3
4
5
40-50
30-40
90-100
80-90
20
70-80
5
0
-5
-10
Precipitation
change (%)
25
10
Temperature
change (oC)
50-60
0-10
15
5 6
60-70
10-20
Denmark
Seasonal precipitation distribution
2 3 4
70-80
20-30
6
Temperature
change (oC)
0 1
80-90
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
Denmark, leaching > 25 kg N/ha
Denmark
Uniform precipitation distribution
25
15
10
5
0
-5
Precipitation change (%)
20
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
-10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Temperature change (oC)
Denmark
Seasonal precipitation distribution
25
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
0
1
2
3
4
5
Temperature change (oC)
6
Precipitation change (%)
20
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
Response surfaces in combination
with probabilistic information on
future climate
Denmark
Seasonal precipitation distribution
Denmark 2050-70
25
10
5
0
-5
-10
1
2
3
4
5
Tem perature change
(oC)
6
90-100
25
80-90
20
70-80
15
60-70
50-60
10
40-50
5
30-40
0
20-30
-5
10-20
0-10
-10
0
1
2
3
4
5
Temperature change (oC)
6
Precipitation change (%)
15
Precipitation change (%)
20
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
Remarks
 Baseline climate from 1976-2004,
should be 1960-90
 CO2 concentration not included in
simulations
Preliminary conclusion
 Calculations of nitrogen leaching is
more sensitive to seasonal variation
in climate data than the calculations
of crop yields.
Future work
 Seasonal relationships between
meteorological variables in future
climate data will be investigated
 Include CO2-concentrations, fixed for
each time period
 Include the seasonal variation in
climate in the calculations
 Simulations with two crops: winter
wheat and spring barley
 Simulations for more locations and
local soil types