24/11/16 25E52000 Market Entry Strategies for Entrepreneurial Business Lecture 4 Market Entry Based on Chapter 6 in Besanko et al. (2013). Economics of Strategy. Sixth Edition. Wiley. Learning Objectives Identify barriers to entry Analyse incumbent’s response strategies to market entry Principal concepts Structural and strategic barriers to entry ¡ Limit pricing ¡ Predatory pricing ¡ Tit-for-tat pricing ¡ 1 24/11/16 Market Structures Entry Entrants are firms that produce and sell in new markets ¡ ¡ Brand new firms Established firms diversifying into a new market Entry threatens incumbents in two ways ¡ ¡ The market share of the incumbents is reduced Price competition is intensified A potential entrant compares the sunk cost of entry with post-entry profits ¡ ¡ Sunk costs of entry range from investment in specialised assets to obtaining government licenses Post-entry profits will depend on demand and cost conditions as well as post-entry competition 2 24/11/16 Asymmetry between Incumbents and Entrants Incumbents have incurred sunk costs, entrants haven’t Established relationships with customers and suppliers are not easy to replicate Learning curve effects Switching costs for the customers Barriers to Entry 3 24/11/16 Barriers to Entry Barriers to entry are factors that ¡ allow the incumbents to earn economic profit while ¡ making it unprofitable for the new firms to enter the industry Characteristics of markets for assessing entry barriers ¡ Structural barriers (natural advantages) ¡ Strategic barriers (incumbents’ actions to deter entry) ¡ Feasibility of entry deterring strategies Structural Barriers to Entry Control of key resources ¡ Physical resources ÷ ÷ ¡ natural resources (e.g. minerals, oil) infrastructure (e.g. railways, phone lines) Intangible resources ÷ ÷ ÷ Patents Mobile phone ecosystems Special know-how that is hard for the rivals to replicate Economies of scale and scope ¡ ¡ Market has significant economies of scales that the incumbent has already exploited Potential entrant may face cost disadvantages that deter entry High set-up (sunk) costs ¡ ¡ ¡ Manufacturing sector R&D intensive industries Any business that requires large investments in marketing and advertising 4 24/11/16 Strategic Barriers to Entry Limit pricing ¡ ¡ Incumbent sets a low price to signal to entrants that post-entry profits are impossible Incumbent exploits scale economies and superior knowledge of the market Predatory pricing ¡ After entry has occurred, the rival tries to force the entrant out of the market by means of low prices Capacity expansion ¡ ¡ By holding excess capacity, the incumbent can rapidly increase its output Credible threat of post-entry predatory pricing Vertical integration ¡ Example: breweries owning pubs Exclusive contracts ¡ Example: a retail chain selling only one brand of milk Blockaded Entry Entry is considered blockaded when the incumbent does not need to take any action to deter entry Existing structural barriers are effective in deterring entry High sunk entry costs relative to market size ¡ Low post-entry profitability ¡ 5 24/11/16 Accommodated Entry Incumbents should not bother to deter entry if the market is highly contestable Structural barriers may be low ¡ Low sunk costs for entrants Strategic barriers may be ineffective or not cost effective Typical of markets with ¡ growing demand ¡ rapid technological change Deterred Entry Entry is deterred if the incumbent can keep the entrant out by employing an entry-deterring strategy ¡ if employing the entry-deterring strategy boosts the incumbent’s profits ¡ Deterred entry is the only condition under which the incumbents should engage in predatory acts Predatory acts aim to raise entry costs ¡ reduce post-entry profits ¡ 6 24/11/16 Is Limit/Predatory Pricing Rational? Monopoly vs. Duopoly Consider a market with ¡ One incumbent (monopoly) ¡ Entry by one firm that transforms the market into a duopoly For entry deterring strategies to work ¡ Incumbent must earn higher profits as a monopolist than as a duopolist ¡ The strategy should change the entrants’ expectations regarding post-entry competition 7 24/11/16 Limit Pricing Incumbent sets the price sufficiently low to discourage entrants ¡ ¡ ¡ It has excess capacity and can set prices below entrant’s marginal cost It can meet the market demand at the low prices It believes that it is better to be a monopolist at the limit price than to share the market at a duopoly price Entrant concludes that post-entry profits won’t cover sunk costs of entry ¡ ¡ It assumes the incumbent will lower the price further as a consequence of entry But is this a rational conclusion? Limit Pricing Example Jane is the incumbent in the local craft beer market in a small town ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Demand for craft beer: P = 100 – Q Total costs: €800 + €10Q Monopoly price: €55 Monopoly profit: €1225 Assume a market that lasts two years Jane would earn €2,450 as monopolist Paul considers entry in Year 2 ¡ ¡ ¡ Scenario If Paul enters, both expect equal market shares Cournot duopoly price: €40 Duopoly profit per firm: €100 Jane’s profit Paul’s profit Year 1 Year 2 Total Year 2 Jane does not limit price; Paul enters €1,225 €100 €1,335 €100 Jane sets P=€30 in Year 1, Paul enters; Jane keeps P=€30 in Year 2 €600 -€100 €500 -€100 Jane sets P=€30 in Year 1, Paul does not enter; Jane raises P=€55 in Year 2 €600 €1,225 €1,825 - 8 24/11/16 Is Limit Pricing Rational for Jane? Pm = monopoly price €55 Incumbent (Jane) Pl = limit price €30 Pm Pl Pc = Cournot price €40 Year 1 profits for Jane Entrant (Paul) Monopoly = €1225 Out Out In In Pl πI = 1125 πE = -100 Year 2 profits (Jane & Paul) πI = 2450 πE = 0 Incumbent Pc Pl πI = 1325 πE = 100 πI = 500 πE = -100 Limit price = €600 πI = 1825 πE = 0 Pc Limit price = -€100 Cournot = €100 πI = 700 πE = 100 Is Limit Pricing Rational? When multiple periods are considered ¡ The incumbent has to set the price low in each period ¡ To deter entry in the following period ¡ So in fact if Jane chose to limit price P=€30, that would be her price indefinitely! The incumbent may be better off being a Cournot duopolist ¡ Than limit pricing forever as a monopolist Rational incumbents and entrants look for a Nash equilibrium outcome ¡ ¡ Both strive for the best outcome (e.g., profit maximisation) Given the other’s strategy (e.g., price or capacity decision) 9 24/11/16 Predatory Pricing Predatory pricing is directed at entrants who have already entered ¡ setting the price below short run marginal cost ¡ with the expectation of recouping the losses via monopoly profits once the rival exits Predatory pricing will not work assuming ¡ a finite time horizon ¡ entrants being able to foresee the future course of the incumbent’s pricing Models that include uncertainty and information asymmetry show that predation can be a rational Limit Pricing & Predation Can Be Rational Entrant is uncertain about ¡ ¡ ¡ Market demand Incumbent’s costs Incumbent’s motivations Information asymmetry ¡ ¡ Incumbent does not have a cost advantage and/or market demand ‘meets expectations’ for feasible business – but the entrant does not know it The incumbent can use a low price to persuade the entrant that they do have a cost advantage (or market demand is low) Reputation ¡ ¡ Predatory pricing can deter entry when the incumbent seeks a reputation for toughness If the incumbent does not slash prices, other challengers may consider them ‘easy’ rather than ‘tough’ 10 24/11/16 Entrant’s Strategy: ’Judo Economics’ Smaller entrants use the larger incumbent’s size to their own advantage Revenue destruction effect ¡ Incumbent stands to lose more revenue if it slashes prices compared to the entrant ¡ Incurring large losses may not appear worthwhile to the incumbent Entrant discourages the incumbent from entry deterrence strategies by appearing to be a nonthreat in the long term Tit-for-Tat Pricing HOW FIRMS CAN SET PRICES ABOVE COMPETITIVE LEVELS WITHOUT FORMAL COLLUSION? 11 24/11/16 Example of Price Increase Paul and Jane charge pubs €40 per cask The market is worth €120,000 in profits per year ¡ Currently split evenly between Jane and Paul (€60,000 each) ¡ Paul’s partner is pressuring him to boost profits and raise price to €60 If Jane keeps her price at €40 She will capture 100% of the market ¡ And earn an annual profit of €120,000 ¡ If Jane follows Paul and raises her price to €60 Total profits increase to €160,000 ¡ Jane (as Paul) earns a profit of €80,000 ¡ Example of Price Increase Suppose prices can change every week Paul raises his price, Jane doesn’t follow ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Paul loses one week’s profit at the current price of €40 (€1150) Jane gains a one-off profit of 100% market share for that week (€2300) Paul drops his price back to €40 after a week Jane’s profits return to ‘normal’ In annual terms: ÷ ÷ Jane’s profits: €61,150 Paul’s profits: €58,850 What if Jane followed the price increase? ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Instead of the current annual profit of €60,000 each Both would earn €80,000/pa This is more for Jane than the current profit + one week’s profit bump Paul has an incentive to keep his price at €60 12 24/11/16 Prisoner’s Dilemma Tit-for-Tat 13 24/11/16 Tit-for-Tat Pricing When two firms compete over several periods, a tit-for-tat strategy may make cooperative pricing possible Since each firm knows that its rival will match any price cut, neither has an incentive to engage in price cutting Similarly, there might be an incentive for cooperative price increases The Superiority of Tit-for-Tat Tit-for-tat is easy to communicate: ¡ ‘Lowest price guaranteed’ Successful implementation of tit-for-tat ¡ Be nice: never be first to defect ¡ Be forgiving: cooperate if cooperation is offered ¡ Be retaliatory: defect if others defect against you ¡ Be clear: make it easy to infer that you follow this strategy 14
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