Sea ASIA
CHARTERERS’ FORUM
Singapore
2 April 2007
Peter M. Swift
INTERTANKO: London, Oslo, Brussels, Singapore, Washington
CHARTERERS’ FORUM
OIL SHIPPING
Fleet development
Chartering today
Future demand ?
Tanker fleet development
m dwt
No
460
5,200
dwt
368
number
4,160
276
3,120
184
2,080
92
1,040
0
0
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 P07 P08 P09
Assumptions for period until 2009:
Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already
have been phased out earlier than 2007
Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)
Record ordering - despite high prices
(mdwt)
120
Source: Fearnleys
100
280,000 dwt
80
60
150,000 dwt
40
95/105,000 dwt
40/45,000 dwt
20
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
Dec-03
Jun-03
Dec-02
Jun-02
Dec-01
Jun-01
Dec-00
Jun-00
Dec-99
Jun-99
Dec-98
Jun-98
Dec-97
Jun-97
Dec-96
Jun-96
Dec-95
Jun-95
Dec-94
Jun-94
Dec-93
Jun-93
Dec-92
80
70
60
1993 and earlier sizes except
Handy
VLCCs were defined differently
50
Chem/Spec)
Panamaxes
40
30
20
10
0
Aframaxes
Suezmaxes
VLCCs
Demolition: slowed in recent years
(mdwt)
30
Others/NK
Bangladesh
25
Pakistan
India
20
Taiwan
15
Korea
China
10
5
0
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Average age steadily reducing
(tankers above 10,000 dwt)
Years
16
14
12
10
8
6
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Double-hull percentage rising steadily
%
100
80
49
41
33
32
27
24
21
18
15
% dwt share* :
SH/DB/DS
78
60
94
End 07
82
85
End 10
End 06
79
End 09
67
73
End 05
51
59
68
76
End 04
40
End 08
DH
20
22
End 03
End 02
1997
6
1991
0
* Assumes
phase out
according to
regulations
(rounded
upwards, 25
years after 2010
.
(Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out
- an “uncertainty” post 2010
m dwt
70
60
MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH
until 25 years)
EU + no SH after 2010
50
OPA90
40
30
20
10
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Assumptions :
MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015
The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010.
DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015
Conversions to Double Hull
a further “uncertainty”
Built
10-30,
000 dwt
30-52,
000 dwt
60-72,
000 dwt
90-113,
000 dwt
120-148, VLCCs
000dwt
TOTAL
(incl 6 obos)
1970s
3
2
0
0
0
0
5
19801984
8
36
9
1
0
0
54
19861989
11
12
0
3
3
1
30
19901998
2
9
1
18
2
2
34
24
59
10
22
5
3
123
TOTAL
CHARTERERS’ FORUM
OIL SHIPPING
Chartering today
Oil import by VLCCs - share of
double hull
%
100
90
80
70
Average
60
50
40
30
Europe
US Atlantic
20
Far East
Others
10
0
1998
1999
Source : Fearnleys
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of
double hull
%
100
90
80
Average
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Europe
US Atlantic
Far East
Others
0
1998
1999
Source : Fearnleys
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Oil import by Aframaxes - share of
double hull
%
100
90
80
Average
70
60
50
40
30
20
Europe
10
0
US Atlantic
Far East
Others
2004
2006
Based on figures from Fearnleys
1998
1999
Source : Fearnleys
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
Oil import by Panamaxes - share of
double hull
%
100
90
80
70
Average
60
50
40
30
20
Europe
10
US Atlantic
Far East
Others
0
1998
1999
Source : Fearnleys
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Oil export by Aframaxes - share of
double hull
%
100
90
80
Average
70
60
50
40
30
AG/Red Sea
NE/A Africa
20
Caribs
N Sea
10
Others
0
1998
1999
Source : Fearnleys
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Period contracts of one year and above
No.
250
Unknow n
225
10,000-49,999 dw t
200
50,000-99,999 dw t
175
100,000-199,999 dw t
150
Above 200,000 dw t
Average
age
Average
period
Year
No.
2000
144
9.5
1.37
2001
218
8.5
2.39
2002
221
7.3
1.87
2003
108
8.7
1.96
2004
126
8.7
2.44
2005
160
5.1
2.90
2006
198
6.2
2.60
*2007
70
5.3
2.30
125
100
75
50
25
0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Source: INTERTAKO
*Projection 2007: 305 contracts
CHARTERERS’ FORUM
OIL SHIPPING
Future demand ?
India and China – growth markets
Asia leads tanker demand rise
CHARTERERS’ FORUM
OIL SHIPPING
Tonnage Supply & Demand Forecasts
Average Annual Growth 2007-2009
Source: McQuilling Brokerage Partners
Supply
Demand
VLCC
9.2%
3.3%
Suezmax
7.3%
2.1%
Aframax
9.6%
0.5%
Coated Aframax
4.4%
1.3%
THANK YOU
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