National Public Opinion Poll: Testing Possible Campaign Platform Policies FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: April 14, 2015 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE AMONG 16 POSSIBLE CAMPAIGN PLATFORM POLICIES TESTED, MIDDLE INCOME TAX CUT (84%), INCREASED HEALTH CARE FUNDING (78%), AND INCREASED CPP FUNDING (70%) MOST POPULAR WITH CANADIANS Large Majorities Expect These Policies to Have Positive Impact on Themselves and Their Family, including Three-­‐in-­‐Ten who Expect a Very Positive Impact OTHER FREQUENTLY-­‐DISCUSSED PARTY POLICIES NOTABLY LESS POPULAR: INCOME-­‐SPLITTING (56%), HIGHER CORPORATE TAXES (51%), AND DAY CARE FUNDING (50%) Child-­‐Focused Policies and Business Incentives Fare Worst in Policy-­‐Testing Exercise (Toronto, Ontario, April 14, 2015) – With a federal election on the horizon, a middle income tax cut, increased health care funding, and increased CPP funding are – by far – the most popular policies among 16 current and possible campaign platform planks tested in a new survey by Pollara Strategic Insights. Other policies, including policies currently being promoted by federal political parties, were notably less popular among Canadians. Pollara Strategic Insights conducted the survey from March 16-­‐18, 2015. The online survey was conducted among a randomly-­‐selected sample of 1,007 Canadians aged 18 and older. As a guideline, the margin of error for a probability sample of this size is ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20. These survey results were part of a larger survey gauging points of financial stress among the public. The full report is appended to this release. MOST POPULAR POLICIES The study asked Canadians to indicate what type of impact they expected each of the 16 policies would have on themselves and their family, if introduced. Eight-­‐in-­‐ten Canadians expected the two top-­‐ranked policies – middle income tax cut (84% positive; 36% very) and increased health care funding (78% positive; 31% very) – would have a positive impact, including more than three-­‐in-­‐ten who expected a very positive impact. Few Canadians expected that these policies would have no impact or a very negative impact. 1 National Public Opinion Poll: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Testing Possible April 14, 2015 Campaign Platform Policies Similarly, the third-­‐ranked policy – increased CPP funding (70% positive; 30% very) – was expected to provide a positive impact by seven-­‐in-­‐ten Canadians, with three-­‐in-­‐ten expecting a very positive impact. Few Canadians expected a very negative impact from this policy, but 10% thought it would have no impact on themselves and their family. “There is no magic bullet in the new policy arsenal that will attract and move large swaths of voters,” said Pollara Executive Vice-­‐President Craig Worden. “However, with a notable degree of intensity, Canadians believe that these three policies would be directly beneficial to themselves and their families. No other policy approaches the popularity of a middle income tax cut or increased health and CPP funding. The other policies receive relatively lukewarm responses, tinged with pessimism about their efficacy.” Policy'Tes+ng.–.Top.Tier:..Public.Feels.Middle.Income.Tax.Cut,.
Investments.in.Health.Care.&.CPP.Would.Have.Most.Posi+ve.Impact.
Very!posi*ve!impact!
Somewhat!nega*ve!impact!
No!impact!
Lower.income.taxes.on.
Canadians.in.the.middle.
income.brackets..
!
Net..
!
Intensity.
!
!
Score*.
Somewhat!posi*ve!impact!
Very!nega*ve!impact!
Don't!know!/!Unsure!
36%.
Increased.funding.of.
Canada’s.health.care.
system..
31%.
Increased.funding.of.the.
Canadian.Pension.Plan.
(CPP)..
30%.
48%.
47%.
40%.
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
5. 3. 5. 3.
+33.
9%. 4. 5. 4.
+27.
10%. 3. 10%. 7%.
+27.
Q5:$What$type$of$impact$–$if$any$–$do$you$think$each$of$the$following$ini9a9ves$would$have$on$you$and$your$family,$if$introduced?$$(n=1,007)$
New$ques2on$in$Wave$2.$$$*Net$Intensity$Score$=$Very$Posi2ve$Impact$minus$Very$Nega2ve$Impact$$
POLICIES RECEIVING LUKEWARM RESPONSE, TINGED WITH PESSIMISM Six of the 16 policies included in the survey received middling scores, with between half to two-­‐thirds of Canadians expecting a positive impact – but only about two-­‐in-­‐ten expecting a very positive impact and at least one-­‐in-­‐ten expecting no impact at all for themselves and their family. The more popular policies in this middling tier of tested platform planks are as follows: •
67% of Canadians expect a positive impact from higher tax incentives for retirement savings – but only 22% expect a very positive impact, 6% expect a very negative impact, and 11% expect no impact at all. 2 National Public Opinion Poll: Testing Possible Campaign Platform Policies •
•
•
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: April 14, 2015 65% expect a positive impact from increased infrastructure funding, but only 21% expect a very positive impact, 5% expect a very negative impact, and 13% expect no impact at all. 64% expect a positive impact from higher income taxes on the highest income brackets, with 28% expecting a very positive impact, 8% expecting a very negative impact, and 13% expecting no impact at all. Six-­‐in-­‐ten (60%) Canadians expect a positive impact from a tax deduction to reduce the costs of post-­‐
secondary education, but just 24% expect a very positive impact and two-­‐in-­‐ten (20%) expect no impact at all. Perhaps the most-­‐debated policy tested, income-­‐splitting sees less than six-­‐in-­‐ten (56%) Canadians expecting a positive impact from it, with just 20% expecting a very positive impact and 23% expecting no impact at all for themselves and their family. Similarly, just half (51%) of Canadians expect a positive impact from higher corporate taxes, and only 20% expect a very positive impact, 7% expect a very negative impact, and 15% expect no impact at all. This, even though Policy'Tes+ng://Middling/Scores,/Pessimism/for/PSE/&/Re+rement/Tax/
Breaks,/Income'SpliAng,/Infrastructure,/Taxes/on/Rich/Business/
Very!posi*ve!impact!
Somewhat!nega*ve!impact!
No!impact!
Tax/deduc+ons/for/reduced/post'
secondary/educa+on/tui+on/
Higher/income/taxes/on/Canadians/
in/the/highest/income/brackets/
!
Net//
!
Intensity/
!
!
Score/
Somewhat!posi*ve!impact!
Very!nega*ve!impact!
Don't!know!/!Unsure!
!
24%/
36%/
28%/
11%/ 3/
36%/
20%/
5%/
!
+21/
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
10%/ 8%/ 13%/ 5%/
+20/
Higher/tax/incen+ves/for/
re+rement/savings/
22%/
45%/
10%/ 6/ 11%/ 7%/
+16/
Increased/funding/to/repair/&/
build/transport,/transit,/other/
infrastructure/
21%/
44%/
9%/ 5/ 13%/ 8%/
+16/
Reducing/income/tax/for/families/
w//children/via/income/spliAng*/
20%/
Higher/corporate/taxes/
20%/
36%/
31%/
9%/ 4/
19%/
23%/
7%/ 15%/
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
7%/
+16/
8%/
!
+13/
!
Q5:$What$type$of$impact$–$if$any$–$do$you$think$each$of$the$following$ini9a9ves$would$have$on$you$and$your$family,$if$introduced?$$(n=1,007)$
Net$Intensity$Score$=$Very$Posi7ve$minus$Very$Nega7ve.$*Income$spli=ng$included$following$defini7on:$“i.e.$allowing$the$spouse$in$the$higher$income$
tax$bracket$to$move$to$a$lower$tax$bracket$by$assigning$some$of$their$income$to$the$spouse$in$the$lower$tax$bracket$(when$doing$their$tax$returns).”$
CHILD-­‐FOCUSED POLICIES AND BUSINESS INCENTIVES FARE POORLY The remaining seven policies included in the survey fare poorly, with 52% to 56% of Canadians expecting a positive impact – but no more than 16% expecting a very positive impact and between two-­‐in-­‐ten to three-­‐in-­‐
ten expecting no impact at all for themselves and their family. Notably, all seven planks in this bottom tier are either child-­‐focused policies or business incentives: 3 National Public Opinion Poll: Testing Possible Campaign Platform Policies •
•
•
•
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: April 14, 2015 56% of Canadians expect a positive impact from business incentives to hire more employees – but only 16% expect a very positive impact, 6% expect a very negative impact, and 18% expect no impact at all. 52% of Canadians expect a positive impact from business incentives to encourage productivity improvements – but only 14% expect a very positive impact, 5% expect a very negative impact, and 19% expect no impact at all. 52% of Canadians expect a positive impact from business incentives to encourage research and innovation – but only 12% expect a very positive impact, 4% expect a very negative impact, and 22% expect no impact at all. 52% of Canadians expect a positive impact from incentives for new businesses – but only 12% expect a very positive impact, 4% expect a very negative impact, and 28% expect no impact at all. Another much-­‐discussed policy, increased funding to create affordable day care / child care spaces sees just half (50%) of Canadians expecting a positive impact from it, with only 16% expecting a very positive impact, 4% expecting a very negative impact, and almost three-­‐in-­‐ten (28%) expecting no impact at all for themselves or their family. Similarly, just 48% expect a positive impact from increased tax deductions for children’s activity expenses, with only 16% expecting a very positive impact, 5% expecting a very negative impact, and 30% expecting no impact at all. Finally, 47% expect a positive impact from increased tax deductions for child care expenses, with only 15% expecting a very positive impact, 5% expecting a very negative impact, and a third (33%) expecting no impact at all. Policy'Tes+ng.–.Bo1om.Tier:..General.Public.Pessimis+c.about.Impact.
Poten+al.of.Child'Focused.Funding/Tax.Breaks.&.Business.Incen+ves.
Very!posi*ve!impact!
Somewhat!nega*ve!impact!
No!impact!
!
Net..
!
Intensity.
!
!
Score.
Somewhat!posi*ve!impact!
Very!nega*ve!impact!
Don't!know!/!Unsure!
Incr..funding.to.create.affordable.day.care./.child.
care.spaces..
16%.
34%.
12%. 4.
28%.
6.
!
+12.
!
Incr..tax.deduc+ons.for.children’s.ac+vity.expenses..
16%.
32%.
11%. 5.
30%.
5.
!
+11.
!
!
!
Increased.tax.deduc+ons.for.child.care.expenses.
15%.
Financial.and.tax.incen+ves.to.businesses.if.they.
hire.more.employees...
16%.
Financial.and.tax.incen+ves.to.businesses.to.
encourage.produc+vity.improvements.
14%.
32%.
40%.
38%.
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
6.
+10.
11%. 6. 18%. 10%.
+10.
8%. 5.
33%.
11%. 5. 19%. 13%.
!
+9.
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Financial.and.tax.incen+ves.to.new.businesses. 12%.
40%.
9%. 4.
7%.
+8.
Financial.and.tax.incen+ves.to.business.to.
12%.
encourage.research.and.innova+on.
40%.
11%.4. 22%. 11%.
!
+8.
28%.
!
Q5:$What$type$of$impact$–$if$any$–$do$you$think$each$of$the$following$ini9a9ves$would$have$on$you$and$your$family,$if$introduced?$$(n=1,007)$
New$ques2on$in$Wave$2.$$Net$Intensity$Score$=$Very$Posi2ve$Impact$$minus$$Very$Nega2ve$Impact.$$
4 National Public Opinion Poll: Testing Possible Campaign Platform Policies FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: April 14, 2015 Background About the Survey: Pollara Strategic Insights conducted an online survey of a randomly-­‐selected sample of 1,007 Canadians aged 18 and older. The survey was conducted from March 16-­‐18, 2015. As a guideline, the margin of error for a probability sample of this size is ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current gender, age, and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire population of Canadians aged 18 and older. Any discrepancies in or between numeric totals are due to rounding. About Pollara Strategic Insights: Founded in 1980, Pollara Strategic Insights is one of Canada’s premier full-­‐service research firms – a collaborative team of senior research veterans who are passionate about conducting research through hands–on creativity and customized solutions. Taking full advantage of their comprehensive toolbox of industry-­‐leading quantitative and qualitative methodologies and analytical techniques, Pollara provides research-­‐based strategic advice to a wide array of clients across all sectors on a local, national, and global scale. For more information, please visit www.pollara.com. Contacts For more information, please contact: Craig Worden Executive Vice President Pollara Strategic Insights 416-­‐509-­‐4596 [email protected] Survey Results These survey results were part of a larger survey. The full results of the entire survey are appended to this release in the form of the final report. The full report is Wave 2 of our study entitled “Searching for the Middle Class: Canadians Under Financial Stress”. Wave 2 (March 2015) of this study is the first time that these policy-­‐testing questions were asked. 5