RISE Impact Evaluation: Proposal for First 21 out of 60 GNs for Baseline Assessment
25 October 2009
This note updates all previous documents on the impact evaluation.
The baseline assessment will include approximately 900 to 1,200 total survey interviews of
ordinary civilians plus approximately 300 IOM beneficiaries across 60 GN divisions within
Batticaloa District. This implies an average of approximately 15-20 interviews with ordinary
civilians per GN division and an average of 5 IOM beneficiaries per GN. It may be that in most
(or even all) of the 60 GNs, we interview all local IOM beneficiaries. The precise number of
interviews within each GN will be determined through consultations among the impact
evaluation team, the survey research firm (Social Indicators), IOM, and the RISE staff.1
Selection of GNs will be based on the distribution of IOM targeted beneficiaries. At the time of
writing, the location of approximately 1/3 of IOM targeted beneficiaries was determined.
Based on IOM beneficiary information available at the time, the October strategy meeting
proposed an initial focus in the following DS divisions for RISE programming:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
Koralai Pattu North (Vaharai)
Koralai Pattu South (Kiran)
Koralai Pattu (Valachchenai)
Eravur Pattu (Chenkalady).
GN divisions within each of these DS divisions will thus be included in the baseline assessment.
The following four DS divisions were ruled out for inclusion in the baseline assessment, either
because they were not expected to need IOM or RISE activity, or because of they were too
urban: Koralai Pattu West (Oddamavadi), Eravur Town, Manmunai North, Kattankudy, and
Koralai Pattu Central.
This leaves GNs in the following DS divisions in Batticaloa to consider for inclusion in the
baseline assessment:
(v)
(vi)
(vii)
(viii)
(ix)
Manmunai Pattu (Araipattai)
Manmunai South and Eruvil Pattu
Manmunai Southwest
Manmunai West
Poratheevu Pattu
At this time, we assign the first 21 of the 60 GN divisions to be included in the study. The next
40 will be determined once additional information is provided. For the first 21, we will restrict
This design replaces the previous design, which had us choosing 3 “control” matched to each of 3 “treated” GN.
The 3-3 design was scrapped because the program was likely to work in far more than 3 GNs, the program was not a
position to commit to holding any particular set of GNs out as “control” communities, and after paying visits to the
field, we realized that having only 6 GNs in the evaluation would not be the most effective use of resources. Thus,
the 60 GN design was introduced to provide more flexibility as well as better data.
1
attention to DS divisions (i) through (iv). Only when additional information becomes available
will we consider GNs within DS divisions (v) through (ix).
Given RISE’s aims, we feel that the baseline should concentrate on areas where relatively
significant numbers of IOM beneficiaries will reside. In DS divisions (i) through (iv), 15 GNs
were identified to have at least 9 IOM beneficiaries. All but three of these are in Vaharai. We
thus include for certain the three GNs that are not in Vaharai:
(#1)
(#2)
(#3)
Kalmadu (Koralai Pattu/Valachchennai DS)
Vahaneri (Koralai Pattu South/Kiran DS)
Vadumanai (Koralai Pattu South/Kiran DS)
Within Vaharai, the RISE team had already selected the following three GN divisions for the first
wave of program activity:
(#4)
(#5)
(#6)
Kathiraveli (Koralai Pattu North/Vaharai DS)
Kaddumurivu (Koralai Pattu North/Vaharai DS)
Mankerny South (Koralai Pattu North/Vaharai DS)
These three GN divisions will be included in the baseline assessment. In addition, we include 5
more GN divisions from within Vaharai that resemble the already-selected three in terms of
population size, geographic position and proximity to the coast, and confirmed IOM beneficiary
numbers. These additional GNs are as follows:
(#7)
(#8)
(#9)
(#10)
(#11)
Panichankerni—interior areas (Koralai Pattu North/Vaharai DS)
Vaharai North (Koralai Pattu North/Vaharai DS)
Kayankerni (Koralai Pattu North/Vaharai DS)
Palchenai (Koralai Pattu North/Vaharai DS)
Ooriyankattu (Koralai Pattu North/Vaharai DS)
The presumption is that these four additional GNs in Vaharai will not be targeted for locationspecific program. As such, they will provide information that will allow us to measure DS-wide
“spill-over” benefits from the programs in Kathiravelli, Kaddumurivu, and Mankerny South. At
this point, we do not include any additional GNs from Vaharai, and rather seek some diversity
across the DS divisions (i) through (iv). Once more information becomes available, however, we
may decide to increase the number of GNs in Vaharai. That remains to be determined.
In DS divisions (ii) through (iv), we have already included all three of the GNs that were
confirmed to contain at least 9 IOM beneficiaries. We now consider the next tier down: those
GNs that are confirmed to have at least 2 IOM beneficiaries, but not confirmed to have as many
as 9. There are 18 such GNs in that fit this description in DS divisions (ii) through (iv). The
question is how to select 10 GNs (to complete our first set of 20 GNs) from this 18. We do so by
selecting out the 8 GNs that are outliers in terms of population density (which is also an indicator
of other social-economic features). To get an estimate of population density, we used population
size data from the national statistics office’s 2007 special enumeration of Batticaloa and
geographic size of GNs as shown on OCHA’s 2009 Batticaloa maps. The GNs with larger
population size tended to be those with smaller land area, in which case we could easily
determine GNs to select out by setting a population size bar of 2,677. Thus, among the GNs
with 2-9 confirmed beneficiaries, we ruled out any GNs with estimate population size at or above
2,677. That left us with the following eleven GNs to include in this first set of GNs:
(#12)
(#13)
(#14)
(#15)
(#16)
(#17)
(#18)
(#19)
(#20)
(#21)
Sungankerni (Koralai Pattu/Valachchenai DS)
Kumburumoolai (Koralai Pattu/Valachchenai DS)
Valaichenai Tamil (Koralai Pattu/Valachchenai DS)
Puthukudiyiruppu (Koralai Pattu/Valachchenai DS)
Nasivanthivu (Koralai Pattu/Valachchenai DS)
Arumugathan Kudiyiruppu 1 (Eravur Pattu/Chenkalady DS)
Thannamunai (Eravur Pattu/Chenkalady DS)
Arumugathan Kudiyiruppu 2 (Eravur Pattu/Chenkalady DS)
Mavadivembu 2 (Eravur Pattu/Chenkalady DS)
Othuchenai (Koralai Pattu South/Kiran DS)
The annex to this memo provides some background information on these 20 GNs as provided by
the 2007 special census enumeration.
Annex
2007 Special Enumeration Data for selected GNs
DS
975
0.49
Number
of people
conflict
displaced
0
1776
0.44
67
839
821
0.49
0
0
Vaharai North
1758
0.39
0
0
Kathiraveli
2287
0.49
0
364
Palchenai
1900
0.50
0
1213
Oorinyankattu
1902
0.45
0
17
Kaddumurivu
626
0.48
0
0
Sungankerni
2088
0.47
525
0
583
0.36
3
0
Kalmadu
4673
0.43
1150
0
ValaichenaiTamil
1395
0.32
36
0
Puthukudiyiruppu
2010
0.33
150
0
CNasivanthivu
1060
0.48
0
0
GN
Kayankerni
Panichankerni
MankernySouth
Koralai Pattu North
(Vaharai)
Kumburumoolai
Koralai Pattu
(Valachchenai)
Arumugathan Kudiyiruppu 1
Eravur Pattu (Chenkalady)
Koralai Pattu South (Kiran)
Total
Population
Under 18
percent
Number
of people
tsunami
displaced
0
813
0.43
41
0
Thannamunai
1057
0.35
74
174
Arumugathan Kudiyiruppu 2
2253
0.39
195
3
Mavadivembu 2
2037
0.51
97
0
Vahaneri*
NA
NA
NA
NA
Vadamunai*
NA
NA
NA
NA
Othuchenai*
NA
NA
NA
NA
*According to the 2007 special enumeration report, these communities were emptied due to conflict- or tsunamirelated displacement, and we in the middle of resettlement. Thus, population enumeration could not be conducted.
Koralai Pattu North (Vaharai)
Koralai Pattu (Valachchenai)
Koralai Pattu South
(Kiran)
Eravur Pattu
(Chenkalady)