EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
WHO’S GETTING
READY FOR ZERO?
PDF copies of our full report, Who’s Getting Ready for Zero? - A report on the state of play of net zero carbon modelling, can be
downloaded free of charge from www.zerocarbonbritain.com/ready-for-zero and http://track0.org/whos-getting-ready-for-zero/
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CARBON
BRITA N
The ‘Paris Agreement’, adopted by COP21 in 2015, was far more
ambitious than many expected, and demonstrated recognition of
the urgent and passionate demand from many of the world’s most
vulnerable countries. It states that nations must limit global temperature
rise to “well below 2ᵒ°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts
to limit the temperature increase to 1.5ᵒ°C”. To achieve this, the Paris
Agreement requires countries to set nationally determined contributions
(NDCs) in the form of short term emissions reduction targets as well as
devising long term decarbonisation strategies that map out a pathway to
achieving net zero emissions in the second half of the century. The Paris
Agreement commands widespread international support, evidenced by
its rapid entry into force on 4 November 2016, and the 123 of the 197
UNFCCC Parties having now ratified it (as of 11 January 2017).
Increasing Ambition
But of course, the Paris Agreement is a compromise agreement and
has shortcomings. The NDCs put forward by countries ahead of COP21,
and subsequently reaffirmed in their ratification processes, will not,
on their own, deliver the well below 2ᵒ°C, let alone the much needed
1.5ᵒ°C limit. Experts such as Climate Action Tracker calculate the sum
of each nation’s NDC, if fully implemented by all countries, will, at very
best, limit global temperature rise to around 2.8ᵒC. Although that’s a
clear improvement of 0.4ᵒC since the 2014 UN summit in Lima, it’s
still not enough to keep global temperatures below the safer limits of
1.5ᵒ°C/2ᵒ°C. That is why some of the most important elements of the
Paris Agreement are the ratcheting up provisions that can raise short
and long-term ambition. One of these is the first ambition review,
called the Facilitative Dialogue, to be held in 2018 – which is our best
chance to deliver the actions required to limit global warming to the
1.5°ᵒC/2ᵒ°C Paris goals.
Our policy must reflect what our science is telling us. To stabilise our
climate system and stay below the globally agreed limit of 2ᵒ°C with high
certainty and keep 1.5°ᵒC within sight, we must rapidly move beyond
fossil fuel based energy systems and eliminate man-made emissions
of greenhouse gases (GHGs) almost entirely by mid-century. The Paris
Agreement and the mitigation commitments of Parties to the UNFCCC
reflect this reality.
Who’s Getting Ready for Zero?
The good news is that there is a wealth of evidence demonstrating that
a phase-out of GHGs, especially from fossil fuels, can be achieved
in ways that are both socially just and economically prosperous. This
evidence comes from peer-reviewed global modelling studies and
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
scenarios - such as those assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) and new research set out in the World Bank
report, Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero Carbon
Future and Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy
Report by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2014. For
example, more and more countries are putting forward 2050 strategies
that aim to get to zero emissions. These include France, Mexico, and the
United States. Evidence also comes from scenarios that drill down to the
national and city levels, which are the focus of this report, because this
is where most economic and political decisions are made.
Our report Who’s Getting Ready for Zero? maps out how different actors
at national, regional and city levels are already modelling the elimination
of GHGs on science-based timeframes compatible with 2°C. The report
draws on results from over 100 scenarios that demonstrate how we
can reach low or zero emissions before the second half of the century
with existing technology and without harming social or economic
development. We feature 27 of these in more detail to showcase work
occurring in developed and developing countries, covering both low as
well as full decarbonisation scenarios.
Our mapping shows that low or full decarbonisation scenarios have
been undertaken for a wide range of countries, including sixteen of the
world’s largest emitters, which emit nearly 75% of the world’s carbon
emissions. Although a proportion of the NDCs submitted to date do
contain a long-term objective or perspective, there are still too many
countries that have not yet been able to prepare scenarios or strategies
that align their short-term mitigation and development goals with
longer-term 2050 timeframes required by the Paris Agreement.
Whilst Parties to the UNFCCC agreed at COP16 in 2010 that developed
countries should create low-carbon strategies and encouraged
developing countries to undertake sustainable low-carbon
development strategies, too few countries have formally undertaken or
presented such longer-term visions. If we are to take the 1.5°C/2ᵒ°C
limit seriously, all countries – developed and developing, large and small
– should prepare 2050-orientated low and zero carbon development
scenarios and strategies. This will ensure each country’s development
pathway aligns with both the mitigating actions and the climate impact
adaptation needed to live in a near 1.5°ᵒC/2°C world mandated by the
Paris Agreement.
gaps and to engage more countries and citizens in the task of envisioning
and implementing a zero-emissions world. At the same time, we must
join together and celebrate the exciting progress already being made
in mapping the path to zero. Governments, international organisations,
academic networks, think tanks, scientists, NGOs, business groups and
youth must all become ‘zero heroes’ to secure our planet’s future. And
we must build the practitioners’ community at a global, national and city
scale for a collective global push for a zero emissions world by midcentury.
Our concluding recommendation is that a network to support zero
modelling practitioners be established to share their insights and
expertise as a way to support the development of long-term scenarios
and decarbonisation strategies by all. This network could underpin
the implementation of the Paris agreement by engaging citizens and
stakeholders to create a zero carbon, climate resilient world. This will
help us in our collective task of keeping the rise in global temperatures
below 1.5°ᵒC/2°ᵒC to deliver both a stable climate and a prosperous
future for generations to come.
Key for icons in Table 1
Icon
Scenario feature
Zero emissions s cenario
+
-Low
Includes CO2 emissions only
+
-
Scenario includes all greenhouse gases
+
+
+
-
Our main conclusion is that scenario building is a powerful tool that
can engage stakeholders and citizens, and we recommend more work
is done to develop long-term decarbonisation strategies and to share
results within and across countries. Doing so will increase confidence in
a country’s nationally determined climate commitments, whilst driving
the powerful actions, targets, incentives and legislation which are
needed today.
We are conscious this report is very much a first cut at mapping out who
is doing what to get to zero. Further work remains to be done to fill in
-
- includes carbon offsetting
Scenario
+
-
Scenario addresses a single sector
Achieving zero is about more than emissions.
Paris encourages countries to combine their emissions reduction actions
with achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals also adopted
in 2015. Our report also highlights a range of co-benefits such as a
better, more stable economic system, poverty reduction and greater
equity, increased health and well-being, strengthened communities
and improved relationships with nature. We identify these as areas that
should be further explored by future scenarios in order to fully evaluate
the wider benefits of moving to a climate resilient, zero carbon future,
which also help deliver our Sustainable Development Goals.
emissions scenario
+
-
Scenario addresses multiple sectors
Governmental author
Non-governmental author
+
+
-
+
Scenario
offers a vision for the future
+
-
Agreed action plan
+
-
Country also has a scenario in the Deep
Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP)
Scenario uses 50% renewable energy or more
Scenario uses 100% renewable energy
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Table 1: Case studies selected from over 100 scenarios included in the report
Who
What
GLOBAL SCENARIOS
WWF, Ecofys & OMA
The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
ACT 2015
The Three Propositions
REGIONAL SCENARIOS
Nordic Energy Research & IEA
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives
- Pathways to a Carbon Neutral Energy Future
Lappeenranta University of
Technology & partners
North-East Asian Super Grid:
Renewable Energy Mix and Economics
European Commission
Energy Roadmap 2050
COUNTRY SCENARIOS
Beyond Zero Emissions
Zero Carbon Australia
Royal Government of Bhutan
A national strategy and action plan for low carbon development
Mitigation Action Plans &
Scenarios (MAPS)
MAPS Chile - Mitigation options for a low carbon development
Costa Rica Climate Change
Carbon Neutral by 2021
Danish Climate Commission
& Energy Agency
The Road to a Danish Energy System Without Fossil Fuels &
2020, 2035, 2050 Scenarios for energy decarbonisation
Vedvarende Energi & INFORSE
Fast Transition to Renewable Energy by 2030
Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia
The path to sustainable development - Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient
Green Economy Strategy
German Federal
Environment Agency
Germany in 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral country
Greenpeace Japan
The advanced energy [r]evolution:
A sustainable energy outlook for Japan
World Future Council
100% Renewable Energy: Boosting Development in Morocco
University of Canterbury
A 100% renewable electricity generation system for New Zealand
Norwegian Env. Agency
Knowledge base or low-carbon transition in Norway
Gov. Offices of Sweden
Sweden - an emissions-neutral country by 2050 (in Swedish)
IVL Swedish Env. Research
Institute & WWF
Energy Scenario for Sweden 2050 Based on Renewable Energy
Technologies and Sources
Centre for Alternative
Technology
Zero Carbon Britain: Re-thinking the Future
The Solutions Project
100% Wind, Water and Sunlight Energy Plans for the 50 United States
Greenpeace International
Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable USA energy outlook
UN SDSN & IDDRI
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project
Berlin Senate
Climate-Neutral Berlin 2050
City of Copenhagen
Copenhagen 2025 Climate Plan – a Green, Smart and Carbon Neutral City
City of Rome and the Jeremy
Rifkin Group
A Third Industrial Revolution Master Plan to Transition Rome into the
World's First Post Carbon Biosphere City
CITIES
Scenario summary
FROM DECARBONISATION CASE STUDIES
KEY CONCLUSIONS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 Climate
5 Joining the dots: Integrated net zero scenarios
2Time
6​Multiple co-benefits:
action is pro-‐human development
and pro‐-fairness: Policies that eliminate GHG
emissions go hand in hand with increasing equity
and supporting the more vulnerable sections of
communities.
up for wasteful energy use: We can
drastically reduce energy demand by re‐thinking
our urban spaces and reconfiguring lifestyles,
whilst also creating smart, efficient distributed
energy models for those who currently lack access
to energy.
3 Time
up for fossil fuels – the technologies
to achieve zero emissions by mid-century
already exist: There is no longer any need to
rely on fossil fuels; we can capture enough of
the energy that is naturally available to us using
technologies available today at minimal extra cost.
covering energy, transport, built environment,
industry, agriculture and land use ensure that all
emissions are fully accounted for and land use
changes are considered.
In addition to the benefits
of stabilising our climate, pursuing the goal of zero
emissions offers a huge opportunity to achieve
a wide range of co-‐benefits, from stronger and
more stable economics, to increased access to
energy without air pollution and productive and
biodiverse forests and land use.
7 Everyone must be ambitious – we must all pull
together: We need new collaborative knowledge
platforms that work across borders and across
disciplines as well as learning across scales.
4 If we manage the transition well, we can reach
zero emissions without disruption to industry
or consumers: ​Technologies to balance supply
and demand from renewables already exist and
are part of a rapidly growing mix of technologies
and tools driving the clean energy revolution.
NEXT STEPS:
A ZERO PRACTITIONERS NETWORK
REPORT AUTHORS
This report marks the start of an important journey towards the creation of a Zero Practitioners Network
bringing together developers and users of zero emissions and deep decarbonisation scenarios. The key
conclusion of this report shows: we have the evidence, the technology and the tools but to make progress
towards zero emissions we urgently need to connect across borders – geographic, professional and political.
The Zero Practitioners Network is our contribution to convening the experts and policy-makers to drive this
vital transition.
Paul Allen
Farhana Yamin,
Project Coordinator
Zero Carbon Britain:
[email protected]
Founder & CEO Track 0
Associate Fellow, Chatham House:
[email protected]
Isabel Bottoms
Philip James
Research and Policy Engagement
at Track 0:
Researcher
Zero Carbon Britain:
ZERO
CARBON
BRITA N