15th Annual
Integrated Learning - School to Career
Conference
Other Ways to Win:
Counseling Teens in Uncertain
Times
Kenneth Gray
Professor of Workforce Education and Development
Penn State University
Uncertain Times
•
•
•
•
•
The new “Gilded Age”
Decline in wages of BA graduates
Growth of “Gray Collar” workers
Growth of off-shoring of jobs
Growth of high skill but low wage
work.
Obstacle # 1
The One Way to Win Paradigm
1. Get a four year college degree
98% agree, 72% plan on grad school
2. In order to insure economic success
Three of top 4 reasons for going to college
3. In the professional ranks
Professional/manageral 65% Technical 6%
The “Other Way to Win”
Message
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
The “one way to win” philosophy is nonsense. It insures the
majority of teens will fail.
There are Other Ways to Win. Technical education is a better
way for many from the academic middle.
All students should go on to postsecondary education when
and if they can benefit from the experience.
Students who are at risk of dropping out or who will go to
work after graduation are just as important as the
baccalaureate bound.
The traditional academic program “alone” is not likely to serve
well many students from the academic middle.
CTE is to some student what AP/honors is to others.
The Fate of
24 Pennsylvania Elementary School
Children
• 5 drop out (23%)
• 10 graduates go to work (53%); only
22% get any formal on-the-job training.
The Fate of
24 Pennsylvania Elementary
School Children
5 Drop out (23%)
10 Graduate & go to work (53%)
9 Enroll in college (47%)
2 Drop out freshman year (21%)
5 Graduate in five years (60%)
2 Take “gray collar” jobs, nationally (40%).
Only 3 win the one way to win game
Employment of University
Graduates
2000-2012
Supply
University Grads 1,324,000
12%
Demand
730,400
Employed
55%
Only
of all jobs require just a BA degree (Dept
of labor projections to 2012).
Financial Aide
60
%
55
50
45
40
Grants
35
Loans
30
94-95
95-96
96-97 97-98
98-99 99-00
Year
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
Obstacle # 2
Fundamental Fears &
Misconceptions
• A college degree is today what a high
school diploma was before.
There will be so many with a university
degree that they will take all the good
jobs.
Fundamental Fears &
Misconceptions
• College grads earn more than others. It must
be because they have a college degree.
–
–
–
–
–
Education explains less than 10% of earnings
Extreme wealth at the top distorts truth.
26% BA grads earn less than HS grads
21% HS grads earn more than BA grads
83% of associate degree holders have same
median annual earnings a 4-yr grad.
(Thurow, Ulreich,NYT, 1/17/05)
Obstacle # 4
Labor Market Misconceptions.
1. The High Skills/High Wage
Workplace
Semi-conductor
Manufacturing
Engineers
Technicians
Operatives
Ratio: 1 to 2 to 7
2. Labor Market Projections
Can be Misleading
• Opportunity is greatest in occupations
where demand exceeds supply.
• Fast growing,slow growing and even net
job loss may or may not mean
opportunity.
Shortages of Technicians
• There will be 100,000 more jobs for computer
technicians than computer engineers.
• While construction trades employment is
predicted to grow only by 13% retirement of
older workers results in a net demand of over
two million jobs from 2000 to 2010
Among high-tech industries those with a high proportion
of scientists, engineers, and
Technicians,
are projected to grow rapidly:
Source: Hecker, Monthly Labor Review (July 2005),
p. 57.
3. Occupational Skill not Degrees
Provide Labor Market Advantage
High Skill/ High Wage
Occupational
Skills
Academic Skills
Low Skill/
Low Wage
Work Ethic & Work Ethics
Other Ways to Win
What Types of Employees are Expected to Be in Short Supply Over
the Next Years?
Skilled Production
80%
Scientists % Engineers
35%
Unskilled Production
25%
Sales & Marketing
18%
Management & Administration
16%
Customer Service
8%
Others
5%
None
4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Source: “2005 Skills Gap Report: A Survey of the American Manufacturing Workforce”
by National Association of Manufacturing
Types of Skills Workers Will Need in the Future
(NAM. 2006)
39%
51%
53%
53%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Math
Reading
Technical Skills
Employability Skills
Obstacle 5
Widespread Career
Immaturity
The Need to Help Teens
“Get Real”
Today Success Requires
Appropriate Academic skills
&
Career Direction
Few Graduate with Both
Where High School Seniors
Expect to be Employed
Occupations
All Seniors
Males
Females
49.3
68.8
Professional
59.0
Manager
6.0
6.6
5.4
Craft/Precision
manufacturing/
Specialized repair
2.8
5.3
0.3
Technicians
6.0
8.4
3.7
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Other Ways to Win
Consequences of Indecision
• Many colleges now have prerequisites required for
entering college majors.
• 50% seniors change their career goal in 18 months
• One quarter of those who start at a four year
institution transfer.
• One third of those who enter two year colleges
intending on transferring to a university, do so. Of
these, only one third graduate in six years.. success
rate = 11%.
Parents
• National surveys suggest most parents
welcome help with college/career
planning.
• The majority of parents do not want
their children to do what they do for
work.
All my life I’ve always wanted
to be somebody, but I see now
I should have been more specific.
Wagner, 1986
Other Ways to Win
Old Advice that is Now Bad Advice
• Postpone career choices as long as
possible - You don’t want to close any
doors.
• Do not worry about career/college major
indecision - you will decide that in
college.
Creating Other Ways to Win
Career Guidance
 By
the tenth grade all students will have
participated in activities designed to help
them identify several career options.
 In
the eleventh and twelfth grades all
students will participate in activities that allow
them to verify these choices, using the results
to develop postsecondary plans.
Career Verification Activities
Preferred by Teens
Job Shadowing 71%
Vocational
Education
56%
Internships
64%
Unpaid
employment
51%
Paid
employment
61%
Guest speakers
36%
Career interest
inventories
17%
Career focused 60%
academic class
Student Outcomes Goals of Career
Development Programs
Help teens make the best career
decision they can based on what they
know “now” about themselves and the
world of work.
 If this is a good decision, the next
decision will be even better.
Summary
1. Half of all teens in PA either drop out
or go to work after high school
graduation.
2. There are other ways to win
3. There will be more opportunity at
technician level occupations. 1-2-7
4. Career maturity is as important as
academic maturity.
CTE
Is to Some Teens
What
AP & Honors
Is To others.