Global Youth Economic Opportunities Summit
October 7, 2015
Holistic Youth Development:
it may be all right in practice,
but it will never work in theory
creating and using a holistic youth-centered theory of change
“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?"
"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to," said
the Cat.
"I don't much care where—" said Alice.
"Then it doesn't matter which way you go," said the Cat.
"—so long as I get SOMEWHERE," Alice added as an
explanation.
"Oh, you're sure to do that," said the Cat, "if you only walk long
enough."
Alice in Wonderland, Lewis Carroll
WHAT WILL WE COVER IN
TODAY’S SESSION?
● What is a theory of change?
● value and purpose
● key components
● creation process
● socialization and utilization
● lessons learned, tools and Q&A
“There is nothing so practical
as a good theory”
- Kurt Lewin
WHAT IS A THEORY OF
CHANGE?
An explanation of how a group of
stakeholders expects to reach a commonly
understood long-term goal. It articulates
the preconditions and resources that
create early and inter-mediate changes
that add up to this goal. It makes explicit
the assumptions that have to hold for the
theory to be true.
LONG-TERM
OUTCOME
– Aspen Institute
A theory of change is a complete, coherent
causal chain from inputs to outputs to
outcomes to goal that recognizes the
complexity of factors influencing the
realization of a shared goal, including
conditions outside of our control.
– Aaron Ausland
Intermediate Outcomes or
Preconditions
Preconditions
Preconditions
FOR WHAT IS A THEORY OF
CHANGE?
1. It raises new questions
2. It grounds us in reality
3. It forces clarity over “fuzzy
thinking”
4. Puts all the stakeholders
“on the same page”
Image from The Aspen Institute
KEY COMPONENTS
 outcomes & preconditions (modeled in causal pathways)
 assumptions
 rationale
 pathway of change
 narrative
 Optional goodies include: indicators, interventions and
enabling conditions
 narrative
BOTTOM LINE UP TOP
Image from Centre for Theory of Change
PRECONDITIONS
A precondition is what has
to happen if the ultimate
outcome is to be realized.
A focus on the rationale of
necessity helps avoid doing
things that are good, but don’t
get you where you want to go.
OUTCOME
PRECONDITION
PRECONDITION
ASSUMPTIONS
The beliefs about conditions you think exist or
about the logical connection between
preconditions and what they lead to that are
critical to the validity of the theory
RATIONALES
Why that Precondition?
Explaining every step of the way why the outcomes are
needed and why they would lead to upper-level outcomes.
Why that Intervention?
Why in a given context interventions (activities) done in a
certain way are most likely to bring about the outcome
PATHWAY OF CHANGE
NARRATIVE
The plain language summary - short and compelling story
that explains the map.
Can have different versions to emphasize
different points, level of detail, etc.
OPTIONAL GOODIES
Indicators describe what it looks like if a precondition or
outcome is met. They are measurable criterion that provide
evidence of success along the pathway.
Interventions are the actions or activities designed to
achieve particular outcomes. You don’t identify interventions
until you’ve got the outcomes and their preconditions
mapped.
Enabling Conditions at the local, national, and global level
facilitate the pathway of change. When missing they can
constrain success. They are often outside a project’s
capacity to strongly or directly influence.
THE PATHWAY OF CHANGE
HOW DO WE KNOW IF WE HAVE
A GOOD THEORY?
• Plausible
• Feasible
• Testable
Theory of Change is
both a process and a
product.
STEPS TO
FACILITATING
THE THEORY OF
CHANGE
PROCESS
THE STEPS
1. Gain buy-in and support from senior staff and
technical leads
2. Identify qualified and experienced facilitators
3. Select space and date for ToC workshop
4. Identify and select participants for workshop
5. Organize logistics of workshop
6. Host ToC workshop
7. Establish working group to develop ToC product
8. Peer review by participants and critical friends
9. ToC validated by youth
10. ToC reviewed and ratified by senior staff
11. ToC socialized and put into use
THEORY OF CHANGE PROCESS
TIMELINE
1.5 months
1 month
1 week
1 month
2
months
3 days
2
months
1 month
1 month
1 month
1 month
Theory of Change for Youth
Domain
Pathway
Pathway Standard
Youth Employment
Work readiness
All youth are work ready (formal or self-employment)
Workforce development and protection
policies
Communities understand and address child labor
Resiliency, coping and decisionmaking skills
All youth receive needs based and comprehensive life
skills and psycho-social support
Youth-friendly sexual and reproductive
health services
All youth have access to youth-friendly, confidential
and accessible reproductive health services
Supportive homes and communities
Communities and homes are supportive of healthy
sexual and reproductive behaviors for youth
Community-based protection
mechanisms against sexual
exploitation and abuse
Communities understand and address sexual
exploitation and abuse
Informed and Involved Citizens
Youth utilize citizenship knowledge and skills
individually
Collective Youth Action
Youth collectively advocate for change before public
authorities at any level
Youth-inclusive Environments
Communities include and value the active participation
Youth Sexual and
Reproductive
Health
Youth Change
Agents
Same content, different look
Goal: “Skilled and
Engaged Youth”
Youth Sexual and
Reproductive Health
Youth Employment
Work Readiness
Workforce
development and
protection policies
Resiliency, coping
and decision-making
skills
Supportive homes
and communities
Youth-friendly sexual
and reproductive
health services
Youth Change
Agents
Community-based
protection
mechanisms against
sexual exploitation
and abuse
Informed and
Involved Citizens
Collective Youth
Action
Youth-inclusive
Environments
Examples of Theory of Change
Unpacked
Examples from country processes
Tools
Aspen Institute –
I’ll get some from Anita
Lesson Learned
•
Clarifying distinction from a logframe
•
Use it to clarify what you will do and what others will, but seeing the big
picture so it is clear of all that must be done by someone in order to
bring about the desired change. Shapes partnerships
•
Getting people in the room with influence, technical skills across org
levels, geographical regions, technical areas
•
It takes time