Terrorist Use of WMD: A Concrete Threat?
Dr. Yair Sharan –ICTAF Director
[email protected]
2nd Annual Arms Control Conference: New Trends in
WMD Arms Control
Ma’ale Hachamisha,
February 8-9, 2005
ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting
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THE TWO AXIOMS
• It is very easy for terrorists groups to acquire
non-conventional capabilities (especially when
chemicals and biologicals are concerned).
• Non conventional weapons are weapons of mass
destruction. The number of casualties as a result
of an attack will be huge.
ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting
2
Characteristics of Non-Conventional Agents in
the hands of Terrorists
Covert use
It is possible to apply agents covertly and delay warning.
Indetectability
Some agents are not detectable in real time by present
warning and sensing systems.
Small quantities
Potentially cause significant effects resulting in casualties or
contamination.
ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting
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Characteristics (cont.)
Incubation time
There is a time lag between application of biological agent
and the onset of casualties. First symptoms may not
appear for days or weeks. This creates difficulties for the
defense system and the attack validation
Persistent contamination
Radioactivity as well as some of chemical and biological
persistent agents can deny human access to important
areas, infrastructures, and urban areas. Effects may be
long-lasting: decontamination is possible in most cases
although very expensive.
ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting
4
Characteristics (cont.)
Epidemics
Contagious Bio-agents (e.g. Small pox, Plague)
have potential to cause epidemics.(A two sided
sward??)
Psychological effects
Combination of collective memory and ignorance
of CBW weapons effects.
ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting
5
General Observations
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Non-conventional Terrorism threat utilized by non-state
actors, has developed slowly.
Terrorist organizations have caused significant economic
and psychological damages. Non-conventional weapons in
the hands of terrorists have been “Weapons of Mass
Impact” rather then “Mass Casualties” or “Mass
Distraction”
Biological NCT is the major threat. The nuclear threat has a
low probability; the chemical NCT has a low impact
(comparable to conventional means).
• Non state actors show great willingness to harm large
numbers of civilians (e.g Madrid, 9/11)
ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting
6
Lessons learned from recent events
1. Bioterrorism (use of Anthrax) resulted in a small number of
casualties (none in Japan, several in U.S.A.)
2. Casualties were caused by military quality agents (and not by
self-made ones).
3. Casualties from Bacterial agents (e.g. Anthrax) were
successfully treated by antibiotics,
4. Biological events were quickly identified by well equipped and
trained health systems (U.S.A.)
5. Terrorists are aiming at most infectious effective agents – anthrax
the lord of bioterrorism
Is Smallpox the next???
ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting
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Basic Ways for Achieving Non
Conventional capability by terrorists
• Primitive – Use of “natural”
Contagious sources (e.g. ill people, corpses)
• Technological – Self made/produced
agents/weapons
• Political – Covert state assistance (the problem
of rouge states)
ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting
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The “Technological”
Alternative
Terrorist
Knowledge Base
Weapon Effects
Operation
Choice &
Deployment
Acquisition of
Key
Components
Manufacture
Weaponization
Storage and
Transportation
Weapon Use
ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting
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Outcomes of a simulation
The main obstacles Preventing terrorists from utilizing CW as
mass destruction weapons are:
• Sort out a suitable agent out of huge information.
• Impure agents due to the low quality of the raw materials and
the improvised manufacturing equipment.
• Small quantities that can be produced and transported.
• Difficulty of efficient dispersion.
• Manufacturing assembling, storage and transportation of large
quantities of CW are difficult under covert conditions.
Self production of Chemical Agents would result in relatively low
toxicity products, and thus smaller effects in a real event.
ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting
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