Let Glasgow Flourish
Hanlon,Walsh
Walshand
andWhyte
Whyte
Hanlon,
February
April
20062006
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
The information used to compile this report has come from a wide variety of national
and local organisations. We are indebted to the many individuals in these
organisations who have helped to compile the data and who in many instances have
also provided their own advice and knowledge. The length of this list indicates the
range of organisations who can provide public health relevant data and underlines the
collaborative nature of this work. We hope that those who provided data will in turn
derive useful information from the report for their own uses.
It is simply not possible to mention every individual who has assisted in the
compilation of this report. Those not listed here, however, are acknowledged through
the listing of their organisations from whom we have obtained information.
The authors are grateful to the following:
x
ISD Scotland – and in particular Laura Kelso (one of the authors of the NHS
Health Scotland Community Profiles on which a significant amount of the
presented data is based, and who also helped in some of the initial analyses for
this report); also, Julie Kidd, Richard Lawder, Kenny McIntyre, Nadiya
Choudhry, Samantha Clarke and Joanne Hattie.
x
Colleagues at the Glasgow Centre for Population Health – in particular Valerie
Millar, Russell Jones and James Arnott.
x
Glasgow City Council – in particular Neil Hunter (Addictions Services) and
Iain Paterson (Social Work Services).
x
NHS Greater Glasgow – in particular David McCall and Allan Boyd.
x
University of Glasgow, especially Gordon Hay, Maria Gannon, Neil
McKeganey of the Centre for Drugs Misuse Research.
x
Graeme Busfield and Neil McKinnon of Communities Scotland.
x
Fiona Marrison, MSc student in Geographical Information Systems,
University of Edinburgh, Institute of Geosciences.
x
Strathclyde Police – in particular Chris Mooney, Carol McLeod and Will
Linden.
x
Roger Houchin, Glasgow Caledonian University.
x
Kate Lang, HESA.
x
Edith Young, Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plan Joint Committee.
x
Health Protection Scotland – in particular Ian Henton.
3
x
David Leon, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
x
Newhaven Research.
x
Various departments and individuals within the Scottish Executive.
x
Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics.
x
General Register Office for Scotland – in particular Paula Lopez.
x
Department of Work and Pensions.
x
Glasgow Housing Association.
x
Keep Scotland Beautiful.
x
Office for National Statistics (ONS).
x
Finally, we are grateful to colleagues at NHS Health Scotland, particularly
those who commented on various drafts of the report.
Note. Ordinance Survey maps reproduced in Figures 6.21 – 6.26 (Chapter 6):
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Glasgow City Council, 100023379, 2006.
4
Chapter 1: Introduction
“If fresh insights are to be generated into Glasgow’s health we need a
detailed and comprehensive understanding of how health is being promoted or harmed in our city.”
“This is the most comprehensive description of health and its determinants
ever created for Glasgow and West Central Scotland.”
“An analysis of what is getting better in Glasgow is illuminating and challenges a number of stereotypes.”
Let Glasgow Flourish
A comprehensive report on health and its determinants in
Glasgow and West Central Scotland
written by
Phil Hanlon1, David Walsh2 and Bruce Whyte3
for the
Glasgow Centre for Population Health
1
Professor Phil Hanlon, Professor of Public Health, University of Glasgow
David Walsh, Public Health Information Manager, NHS Health Scotland
3
Bruce Whyte, Public Health Information Manager, NHS Health Scotland
2
Published by the Glasgow Centre for Population Health
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 The Glasgow Centre for Population Health
The Glasgow Centre for Population Health (GCPH) is a research and development
facility that generates insights and evidence, provokes discussion and debate, and
mobilises action to improve health and tackle inequality. It provides a setting where
academics, policy-makers, practitioners and local people can come together to
confront problems facing population health in Glasgow and beyond. The Glasgow
Centre is a collaboration between NHS Greater Glasgow, Glasgow City Council and
Glasgow University supported by the Scottish Executive. Other partners also play an
important role. For example, NHS Health Scotland contributed the time of two of the
authors of this report.
1.2 The ‘Observatory Function’ within the GCPH
If fresh insights are to be generated into Glasgow’s health problems we need a
detailed and comprehensive understanding of how health is being promoted or harmed
in our city. To achieve this aim an interdisciplinary group has been assembled from a
variety of organisations. This group will create and maintain a detailed description of
health and its determinants in Glasgow, conduct detailed analyses of major
determinants of health and develop new techniques to enhance our understanding of
how routinely collected data can be used for planning and evaluation. This report is
the first from the observatory group but more will follow.
1.3 Health and how it is created and destroyed
Health is a resource for living. It is not an end in itself but the lack of good health
diminishes life for many. Health is multidimensional. We can recognise physical,
mental, social and perhaps even spiritual dimensions to health. We are aware of poor
health (concepts like disease or compromised function) as well as good health (well
being and good function). It is also important to recognise subjective as well as
objective measurements of health.
One way of thinking about the factors that determine health in a population is the
phrase ‘it all matters’. What this means is that health in populations emerges from a
complex interplay between the physical environment, social environment, individual
response and behaviour, genetic endowment and the provision of services interacting
with economic and other influences from which the health status of a city emerges.
These factors interact and combine over the human life-span to create or destroy
health. These influences also give rise to the patterns of inequality that are now
observed. They also provide the intellectual framework that should allow us to devise
strategies to improve health. It is clear, therefore, that health is a complex construct
and that the determinants of health are multiple, interactive and complex, but we
understand enough of this complexity to devise detailed strategies to confront the
system as a whole and to target specific determinants of health.
8
1.4 How we use data – the strength of holistic data
A full description of how we developed our approach to public health data is provided
elsewhere 1 . The key idea is to reflect the description of health and how it is created
and destroyed (set out briefly above) in the way data are analysed and presented.
Consequently, we have tried in this report to provide data on many aspects of health
and its determinants so that, taken together, they paint a picture of what is happening.
Although it is possible to highlight weaknesses in each individual source of data,
these individual weaknesses are rendered less important by the strength and
consistency of patterns that emerge throughout this report.
For example, our understanding of the determinants of health in communities
highlights the difficulty of focusing on only a small number of indicators.
Community health profiles 2 have demonstrated that the least healthy communities
fare less well on a whole spectrum of indicators. These factors are mutually
reinforcing, meaning that improvement in one small area is unlikely to bring about
transformative improvement in others. In fact, it appears that a significant number of
determinants of health have to change in a community for the health of that
community to improve significantly. The comparison, shown in Figure 1.1 overleaf,
between the two postcode sectors covering Newton Mearns and Dalmarnock
demonstrates this clearly. The key point is that the least healthy communities in
Glasgow have concentrations of problems, not only less good health outcomes, and
many (if not all) of these other factors will need to change before health outcomes
significantly improve.
The example shown in Figure 1.1 has been created from data for two defined areas in this case postcodes that overlap fairly well with Newton Mearns and Dalmarnock.
In other parts of the report data will be presented for different geographies. Often this
will be for local authority areas – for example, Glasgow City compared with other
West of Scotland local authorities. Sometimes data will be presented for NHS Board
areas or parliamentary constituencies i . Overall, a picture will emerge of the health of
people in the whole of the West of Scotland but with a central focus on Glasgow.
Each Figure and Table is carefully labelled to indicate the geographic area being
considered and the source of the data.
1.5 The purpose of this report
This is the most comprehensive description of health and its determinants ever created
for Glasgow and the West of Scotland. Our aim is to increase understanding, provoke
debate and stimulate action. The intended audience is ‘anyone in a position to
influence health in Glasgow and the West of Scotland’. In a very real sense that
means everyone so the report will be widely circulated and also published on the
GCPH web site – www.gcph.co.uk. Copies of the report will also be disseminated to
key policy makers and practitioners who work in sectors highlighted by the report.
We expect that the press will cover the issues it raises too. It is vital that this report
generates public debate. The result we are seeking is a ‘civic conversation’ that leads
to a new consensus about what needs to be done to transform the overall health of
Glasgow’s population and to effectively address existing health inequalities.
i
The range of large and small scale geographies that have been used in the report are explained in more
detail in the ‘Preface to Chapters 2-12’.
9
Figure 1.1 A comparison of health outcomes and determinants of health in two
Glasgow communities showing the degree to which this sample of indices is better or
worse than the Scottish average ii . Note that the profile for Newton Mearns is
different in almost every way from that for Dalmarnock.
Newton Mearns – G77 5
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dalmarnock – G40 4
-70
-60
-50
-40
ii
Each bar on these charts represents that community’s position on a specific indicator, with bars to the
to left indicating a position better than the Scottish average, and those to the right indicating a worse
position. The indicators include both measures of health and measures of the determinants of health.
10
1.6 Summary of main themes
Glasgow is changing but health status and inequalities in health lag behind
Glasgow has been undergoing profound change in recent times. It is true that all cities
have changed in the last 25 years, but Glasgow is not only typical of these changes, it
has experienced the most rapid change in Scotland and has been at the forefront of
change in the UK. In addition to the obvious physical improvements in the city, there
has been a significant amount of social change. Since the 1980s, the following social,
demographic and housing trends have been influential:
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Population decline since the 1950s - driven particularly by the drop in
Glasgow’s birth rate which fell beneath the death rate for the first time in the
mid 1970s.
Population loss, especially evident in the peripheral estates and in the most
deprived parts of the city.
The number and proportion of residents aged between 25 and 44 has
increased, even with overall population levels in decline.
Increasing numbers of households overall and, within this, a growth in single
adult households, a drop in two parent family households and a rise in lone
parent households.
Growth of a service sector based economy - comprising finance, business, the
public sector, retail and hospitality - compensating for the collapse of
manufacturing industry.
Doubling of jobs in occupations considered as middle class employment,
reflecting the growth in the service sector.
Increasing involvement of women in employment and the growth of part-time
work.
Increased general levels of prosperity and a generalised reduction in indices
of overall deprivation - as measured, for instance, by increased car ownership
and reduced levels overcrowding.
Rising income levels for those in employment.
Significant falls in unemployment rates.
Doubling in size of owner-occupation, with growth both in the city centre and
in the peripheral estates.
Transformations to the quality and condition of housing in the city.
In short, much of Glasgow has become a more affluent and ‘middle class’ city with a
profile that is currently similar to most UK cities. Yet, Glasgow’s overall health status
does not fully reflect the changes described above. There is a ‘Glasgow effect’ 3, iii –
that is, an excess of mortality beyond that which can be explained by current indexes
of deprivation. The result is that Glasgow’s health status remains worse than that of
comparable English cities like Liverpool. This ‘Glasgow effect’ is currently being
investigated by a member of the Centre’s Observatory Group.
Thus, while there have been many positive changes in Glasgow over the last twenty
years there remain notable causes for concern.
iii
The supplied reference relates to the existence of a ‘Scottish effect’. However, that research has
shown that the areas most affected are in Glasgow and the West of Scotland.
11
Socio-economic, health and environmental differences between affluent and deprived
communities are still clearly evident. The income gap between the well-paid and those
on the lowest incomes has widened. Official unemployment levels have reduced but
increases in economic activity have not been realised because a significant proportion
(15%+) of the working age population is too ill or disabled to work. The proportion of
families in Glasgow dependent on income related benefits is relatively high and has
been so for many years, and a third of children live in households where neither
parent is in work. Although overall crime levels have reduced there have been
worrying rises in violent crime, drug related crime and vandalism.
An example of the persistence of inequalities, despite decades of interventions to
reverse these trends, can be seen in Castlemilk. This area of Glasgow still features
prominently in the 10% most deprived datazones in Scotland and its health outcomes
remain poor in spite of the high levels of investment in the area over the last 20 years.
Despite enhancements to the physical environment and to the facilities in Castlemilk,
commensurate social and health improvements have not followed.
What is getting better?
An analysis of what is getting better in Glasgow is illuminating and challenges a
number of stereotypes. Life expectancy continues to increase overall and there are
encouraging trends in smoking, unemployment, teenage pregnancies, some crimes,
and some specific causes of death (e.g. heart disease, stroke, some cancers, accidents,
infant mortality).
Two of these trends are worth particular comment. First, smoking has shown a steady
decline for two decades. This is part of a national trend but reflects a multiplicity of
national and local interventions (tax, health warnings on packets, workplace smoking
policies, smoking cessation initiatives, advertising campaigns, schools programmes
and much more) that, over time, have made a difference. Is this a model for what
needs to be done for problems that are currently getting worse? Second, deaths from
heart disease continue to show a marked decline to the extent that, although it was
true that at one time Glasgow was the ‘coronary capital of the world’ this is no longer
the case.
What is proving resistant to change?
The answer to this question is: some aspects of health related behaviour (e.g. the
dental health of children and breastfeeding) and many of the circumstances in which
some people live (e.g. some indices of poverty and low income), and indices that
reflect disability or chronic disease (e.g. adults unable to work for reasons of health
and ‘healthy life expectancy’).
What is getting worse?
Inequalities in health are widening, and we know from numerous studies - many of
them recent - that the health of Glasgow's population, as measured by a variety of
indicators, is still amongst the worst in Scotland, and indeed in the UK, and that
position does not appear to be improving 4,5 . There is also evidence that Glasgow's
health position (for example, as measured by rates in all-cause mortality) has
worsened relatively over the last 25 years (see Chapter 3: Population and life
expectancy).
12
However, some of the more specific problems that are worsening are interesting
because they, arguably, have a relationship to each other. Obesity is showing a
worrying rise. We are part of a global epidemic of obesity but our levels are among
the highest in the world and show no sign of slowing. More obesity has already
brought rising rates of diabetes and might put into reverse our improving heart disease
trends. Alcohol related harm also shows a dramatic increase and concern has been
raised that we are ‘in denial’ about the size and nature of this problem. The size of our
‘drugs’ problem is harder to measure but data in this report suggest that, at best, it is
not improving. Notifications of sexually transmitted infections are rising, some
aspects of mental health seem to be worsening and inequalities between the most and
least deprived communities are increasingiv . It is also notable that traffic volumes
continue to rise and that vandalism, fire-raising and violent crime are rising.
How do we make sense of these trends?
The historian, Professor Tom Devine, in a lecture hosted by the Glasgow Centre for
Population Health v argued two main points. First that Scotland has, historically,
experienced a series of social and economic changes more profoundly than any other
part of the industrialised world and, second, the past twenty years has seen a marked
improvement. His arguments refer to the whole of Scotland but Glasgow’s experience
exemplifies his analysis more than any other part of country.
Devine’s argument is that when the industrial revolution started, Scotland experienced
a more rapid and profound industrialisation, with higher migration from the land and a
greater intensity of urbanisation, than most regions of Europe. Next, Scotland
experienced the highest per capita death rate on the battlefields of World War I and a
deep economic slump during the great depression. Scotland, and in particular West
Central Scotland, continued to rely on heavy industry much longer than most other
European regions. Consequently, when the collapse of heavy industry occurred in the
1960s, 70s and 80s, the effect was more profound. This analysis provides a
convincing narrative to explain the relatively poor heath of Glasgow around the time
of the 1981 census. Unlike cities such as Birmingham, London and Manchester,
Glasgow maintained its dependence on heavy industry (despite policy initiatives to
diversify into light industry) right up to the early 1970s. Therefore, when the ‘shock’
came in the form of the OPEC oil embargo and the three day week, followed by an
economic slump, Glasgow suffered greatly from de-industrialisation, and
unemployment then decimated its traditional working class communities.
iv
Inequalities in life expectancy between the most affluent and least affluent parliamentary
constituencies have increased although the populations of these areas have changed over time and more
sophisticated analysis is required to make judgements about the overall changes in inequalities in the
whole population.
v
Lecture on 6th December 2005 - available at www.gcph.co.uk/seminar2.htm.
13
The causes of inequalities in health at that time were clear. They resulted from income
inequalities and the poorer life circumstances of people in lower paid employment and
unemployment. However, in the past 20-25 years (since the 1981 census) Glasgow
has experienced profound changes that have seen a significant improvement in, for
example, housing stock, median wages, levels of employment, nature of employment,
social class composition of the population and some manifestations of social mobility.
We know, of course, that the polarization between the most affluent and least affluent
communities has become worse - indeed there is evidence of significant sections of
the population being left behind as others prosper further. However, the analysis is not
a simple one because the sizes of Glasgow’s poorest communities have also decreased
significantly since 1981 (see Chapter 3).
The old pathologies, arising from socio-economic inequalities of an industrial age, are
now overlaid with a new set of problems that reflect the stresses, speed and levels of
consumption of our modern society – obesity, alcohol related harm, mental health
problems, traffic congestion and so on. So, despite our rising prosperity, economic
gains remain unequally distributed and, while our new ‘epidemics’ affect the whole
population, those who live in the least advantaged areas are suffering most.
Do we need a new strategy?
Towards the end of this report, we ask the question whether Glasgow’s strategy for
the 21st Century is too heavily influenced by an analysis that was formed in the early
1980s. That analysis focused on material manifestations of deprivation as the primary
causes of ill health. Thus, for example, improved housing and employment were seen
as two key improvements needed to generate health. This is a sound argument and
remains true. Yet, it is equally true that many improvements in material circumstances
have occurred. Our inequalities are not confined to material capital but extend into
social and cultural capital. Other research now provides interesting clues about the
biological pathways between inequality and ill health. For these reasons the Glasgow
Centre for Population Health believes we need ‘fresh thinking’, and a new strategy, if
we are genuinely to address our current problems: after all, our current strategy has
yielded the results set out in this report. This is discussed further in the final chapter of
this report. The reader must make up his or her own mind about the most appropriate
way forward.
1.6 Predicting the future?
Our level of satisfaction with our current circumstances will, in part, depend on where
we believe our future lies.
The optimistic scenario is that we are experiencing the birth pangs of a historical
transformation into a post-industrial society. Glasgow’s economy is now dominated
by services and consumerism within a much wider (UK, European and global)
context. Although we do not understand fully why Glasgow as a whole has less good
health than comparable cities, the explanation probably has its roots in the history
outlined above and will improve over time. Also, although inequalities between
communities are getting bigger, social mobility is diminishing the size of our poorest
communities and this will yield a more equal society in time.
14
How convinced are we of this ‘optimistic scenario’? If we take some of the more
troubling trends set out in this report and extrapolate them, the projected future is
more worrying. The population is ageing, economic inactivity remains high compared
to other parts of the UK and the ratio of those in work to those who receive pensions,
benefits or are in full time education will become progressively more unfavorable.
While Glasgow’s population is predicted to reduce further in the next ten years, single
adult households are predicted to rise to make up half of all households and lone
parent families are set to become as common as two parent families in ten years time.
Traffic volumes are forecasted to rise by 25% in the twenty years to 2021. In terms of
health, two forecasts of what could happen are particularly worrying. If the current
trends in alcohol related mortality continue, the number of deaths from this cause will
double by 2027. Secondly, looking at life expectancy it is possible that the gap in
male life expectancy between Glasgow City and its near neighbour East
Dunbartonshire may have widened to ten years in approximately ten years time.
Many of these trends are predicted for other parts of Scotland but the uniqueness of
Glasgow’s position is in the scale of the changes and the fact that, within Scotland,
Glasgow is already at the extreme for many of these indicators.
In short, trends that are currently well established threaten our future. We should also
consider threats that have not yet fully engaged public concern. We have moved, over
20 or 30 years, from an economy dominated by manufacturing to one that makes very
little. Yet, a long recognized phenomenon, known as ‘peak oil’, is set to bring the age
of cheap oil to an end in the near future. This will occur not when oil runs out, but
after only half of the oil reserves have been used – the production peak 6 . This is
likely to have a large negative and sustained impact on Western economies in the
future, as multiple facets of our societies are built upon the cheap availability of oil.
Through the impact on economic circumstances, the dwindling availability of energy
resources may be the biggest challenge to public health in the foreseeable future. The
timing of the oil production peak is hotly debated but we should at least consider the
possibility that, just as Glasgow came to rely too much and for too long on heavy
industry, we have overshot too far in the direction of consumption and may be ill
prepared for future challenges.
1.7 Structure of this report
The whole document is designed to be a comprehensive review of health and its
determinants in Glasgow and the West of Scotland. Although the report is an
integrated whole, each chapter can be read on its own and individual graphs and
figures stand on their own. Chapter 2 provides a historical perspective on Glasgow’s
population; Chapter 3 looks at issues concerning population and life expectancy;
Chapter 4 considers economic factors; Chapter 5 presents data relevant to the socalled ‘social environment’ in which people live (and so includes topics such as
education, crime, and social capital); Chapter 6 examines the physical environment;
Chapter 7 reviews health related behaviour; Chapter 8 describes data related to
pregnancy, childbirth and early years; Chapter 9 includes data relevant to the
health and well-being of children and adolescents; Chapter 10 looks at indicators of
the health and function of the population; Chapter 11 examines the topic of illness
and disease; Chapter 12 looks at past and future trends; and finally Chapter 13
provides a summary and discusses possible new approaches.
15
1.8 A ‘civic conversation’
Our proposition is that we need a ‘conversation’ about these issues – a civic
conversation. Government, at all levels, will play its part in any solution but it is up to
the people of Glasgow, ourselves, to discuss the findings of this report and to come up
with the fresh thinking needed to confront some old intractable problems and to rise to
a variety of new challenges.
Visit the website – www.gcph.co.uk – to find out about events or add your comment.
16
References
1
Hanlon P, Walsh D, Whyte B. Meeting the information needs of the ‘Health for all’
challenge – lessons from Scotland. Public Health 2005; 119(12): 1088-1096
2
NHS Health Scotland. Community Health and Well-being Profiles, 2004.
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/communityprofiles
3
Hanlon P et al. Why is mortality higher in Scotland than in England and Wales?
Decreasing influence of socioeconomic deprivation between 1981 and 2001 supports
the existence of a ‘Scottish Effect’. Journal of Public Health 2005; 27(2): 199-204
4
Palmer G, Carr J, Kenway P. Monitoring poverty and social exclusion in Scotland
2004. Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2004.
5
Shaw M, Dorling D, Gordon D, Davey-Smith, G. The Widening Gap: health
inequalities and policy in Britain. 2nd ed. Bristol: The Policy Press, Bristol, 1999
6
Kunstler J H. The Long Emergency. London: Atlantic Books, 2005
17
Preface
Preface to Chapters 2-12
Please note that the data presented in the following chapters relate to a number of different
geographical areas:
x
West of Scotland. This is defined as covering 11 local authority areas in West Central
Scotland, namely East Ayrshire, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow City,
Inverclyde, North Ayrshire, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire, South
Lanarkshire, and West Dunbartonshire (Map 1 overleaf). However, we have also defined
the West of Scotland as covering a number of so-called ‘communities’. This is discussed
further below.
x
Greater Glasgow. This relates to the boundaries of NHS Greater Glasgow.
x
Glasgow City. Data presented at this level relate to the City Council boundaries. Note
also that, generally, references to ‘Glasgow’ mean Glasgow City.
However, a considerable amount of information has been taken from the 2004 Community
Health and Well-being Profiles produced by NHS Health Scotland 1 . These data are presented
at two further geographies:
x
Community. These are primary care-based localities (mainly the old Local Healthcare
Cooperative (LHCC) areas or, in some cases, the new Community Health (Care)
Partnerships (CH(C)Ps)) with populations ranging from 20,000-140,000 people. Map 2
overleaf illustrates the broad geographical spread of the West of Scotland and Greater
Glasgow communities.
x
Postcode sector. These are small areas with populations of around 3,000-5,000 on
average.
Note that all the charts which present data at a ‘community’ or postcode sector level, employ
the following colour scheme. Communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. This is illustrated in the example
below.
Dependent children living in households where no-one is in employment, 2001
West of Scotland and Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
Percentage of all dependent children
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
23
23
24
33
33
29
24
7
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0
Where possible, the same
colour scheme has been
incorporated into other
charts employing different
geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council
area, Glasgow City is
shaded dark red; the other
West of Scotland council
areas are coloured light
blue).
Community
1
See www.scotpho.org.uk/communityprofiles.
21
Note also that the postcode sectors are presented by means of a descriptive name rather than
their official postcode name (e.g. ‘Hillhead’ rather than ‘G12 8’). With some minor
adaptations, these are the names that were used in the Community Profiles. We believe that
presenting the information in this way is more meaningful to the reader. However, it should
be borne in mind that all these descriptive names are very approximate, and the boundaries of
postcode sectors will seldom match natural communities. A full list of all the West of
Scotland postcode sectors used in this report, along with their descriptive names, is included
in Appendix 2.
It should be noted that most of the data presented at a community and postcode sector level
covers the years 2001 to 2002. It is possible, therefore, that areas (particularly small areas)
may have undergone change in the past three or four years which could impact on the figures
presented.
Note finally that in a few cases, other geographies (e.g. parliamentary constituency, data
zone) have also been used. However, these are fairly small in number.
Map 1: ‘West of Scotland’ council areas (Glasgow City shaded dark red)
22
Map 2: ‘West of Scotland’ communities (Greater Glasgow communities shaded dark red).
23
The last 200 years have seen extraordinary change in the size of the population of
Glasgow, from initial rapid growth to more recent decline.
The birth and death rates have been in decline since the middle of the 19th century.
However, the death rate now exceeds the birth rate and, without a resurgence in the
fertility rate or significant inward migration to Glasgow, the city’s population is likely to
drop further.
The downward trend in infant mortality underlines the huge improvements in public
health, hospital treatment, sanitation and housing that have been achieved over the last
150 years.
Inequalities in health have been present in Glasgow throughout the entire period.
At the start of the 20th century, Glasgow’s health compared favourably with the large
English cities such as Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham. This is no longer the case.
Overall life expectancy for both men and women has doubled over the last 100 years,
increasing by approximately 34 years and 39 years respectively since the late 19th
century.
“In the past quarter century Glasgow has been part of a rapid change that
has affected North America, Europe and parts of Asia.”
“…many of the healthiest and least healthy communities within the city
remain unchanged from a hundred years ago.”
“The population [of Glasgow] in recent years has reached relative
stability… although further reductions are predicted.”
Chapter 2: Historical perspective
Summary
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 2: A historical perspective on Glasgow’s population
In the past quarter century Glasgow has been part of a rapid change that has affected
North America, Europe and parts of Asia. Glasgow has undergone a transition to
become a post-industrial society. Service industries have replaced manufacturing and
a new knowledge economy is emerging. Consumer choice has exploded, fertility
rates have fallen, divorce has soared, and out of marriage child bearing has increased.
Perhaps most important of all, trust and confidence in institutions have declined.
Within local communities, mutual ties between people have tended to become weaker
and less permanent. We have to look to a set of demographic, economic and cultural
trends to account for these changes. The nature of work and the respective roles of
men and women have changed, as have many fundamentals of life including the
family, leisure, beliefs, values and norms. For example, increased life expectancy and
greater control of fertility made it both inevitable and desirable that women should
seek a wider range of activities beyond the traditional child rearing and home making
roles. Simultaneously, the knowledge economy had less use for the physical strengths
of young men. The result in some communities is a large cohort of younger men who
find themselves without a meaningful role at home or in work, and many of them lack
the education or social skills to remedy the situation. Could this be the explanation
for the fact that younger men have seen an absolute increase in their death rates in
recent years, mostly through accidents, suicide, drug related deaths and violence?
Great disruptions of this nature are not new. At the beginning of the industrial
revolution, alcohol consumption, crime and illegitimacy (to quote just three indices)
were substantially higher than they are today. What emerged in that period was a
reaction to the social disorder that accompanied the upheavals brought about by the
industrial revolution. Victorian society deliberately sought to create institutions and
instil values that would create order out of what seemed like chaos. Thus, in time,
emerged co-operative societies, modern police forces, health visitors, universal
education, orphanages and much else. These were supported by grass roots efforts to
create and sustain a whole series of informal norms and behaviours that, in their time,
were important for social order. The fact that these eventually became outmoded and
now often seem illiberal to modern eyes does not mean that they were not radical in
their time. Human societies have been very inventive and successful in their response
to change. Can we be as successful in our responses to our post-industrial society?
The lesson of history is that we should be optimistic. Therefore, we begin this report
with a brief review of Glasgow’s history, noting how successful we have been at
improving health in the past.
In the following sections of this chapter some of the major demographic trends that
have affected Glasgow over the last century and a half are summarised with the focus
on three topics: population, births and deaths. A brief description of inequalities in
the city around the start of the 20th century is also given to, first, emphasise that the
issue of inequalities in living conditions and in health outcomes is not new; and,
second, to show that Glasgow’s health position in comparison to other major UK
cities has not always been as relatively poor as it is currently. Finally, the great
improvement in life expectancy in the city over the last 150 years is illustrated.
27
2.1 Trends in population, births and deaths
Population
The reports of Glasgow’s Medical Officers of Health 1 , which extend back into the
19th century, provide an insight into the spectacular growth of Glasgow’s population.
Figure 2.1, using data drawn from the aforementioned reports and from the annual
reports of the General Registrar for Scotland 2 , illustrates Glasgow’s population trend
over the last 200 years.
Figure 2.1
Glasgow's Population; 1801-2004
Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow (1898, 1925,1926,1972);
Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004)
1,200,000
1,000,000
Estimated Population
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
Major city
extensions
Local Gov
Districts
introduced
Unitary
Councils
introduced
0
1801 1811 1821 1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
In 1801 the population of Glasgow was estimated as 77,000. Within 20 years the
population had almost doubled to 147,000 and a hundred years later, in 1901, the
population was ten times as large, estimated at 762,000. During this period the
boundaries of the city were extended on many occasions reflecting the expansion of
the city population. Both reductions in mortality (particularly early in life, brought
about by improved sanitation, nutrition and general life circumstances) and greater
inward migration (as people were attracted to industrial jobs) contributed to the
increased population of the city.
Glasgow’s population peaked in 1925 but then remained stable until the early 1950s
when it began to drop. In the early 1960s Glasgow’s population started to fall steeply,
by 1% or more per year, and by 2004 the population of the city (as defined by the
Council boundaries) stood at just over 577,000.
28
Births
Figure 2.2 presents Glasgow’s birth trends from 1855 to 2004 in terms of both actual
births and birth rates. The numbers of births in the city rose steadily through the
second half of the 19th century and peaked just after the end of the First World War, in
1920. Since then, despite a post-war rise in 1947 and again in the ‘baby-boomer’
years of the 1950s and early 1960s, the number of births (and the birth rates) has
continued to fall. In 2004 there were 6,612 births in the city; less than a third of the
figure of 22,415 recorded forty years previously.
The most striking pattern to note from the birth rate figures is that they have clearly
been in long-term decline since the mid 19th century. In the 1860s the birth rate was
above 40 per 1,000 but had dropped to half this rate by the 1930s. From 1964 to 1977
the birth rate dropped particularly steeply, but since then it has stabilised at around 11
per 1,000.
Figure 2.2
Trends in Births and Births per 1,000 population in Glasgow; 1855 - 2004
Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow (1898, 1925,1926,1972)
Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004)
35000
45
1920
40
1914
35
1947
1962
25000
30
25
15000
20
Births
20000
15
10000
10
Births
5000
0
1855
Births per 1,000 population
30000
Births per 1,000 population
5
0
1865
1875
1885
1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
Deaths
Figure 2.3 illustrates the trends in deaths and death rates for the city since 1855. As
the graph illustrates, the number of deaths in Glasgow rose from the mid-1800s to the
1920s before dropping. Much of the rise in the number of deaths until 1920 can be
attributed to the expanded population of the city because the crude death rate from the
1870s onward dropped, falling from around 30 per 1,000 population to below 15 per
1,000 by the mid 1940s. The crude death rate has fluctuated between 13 and 16 per
1,000 since the 1940s. This rate does not, however, take account of population ageing
and, as Chapter 3 of this report shows, the age-standardised mortality rate in Glasgow
has reduced steadily since the 1970s.
29
Figure 2.3
Trends in Deaths and Deaths per 1,000 population in Glasgow; 1855 - 2004
Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow (1898, 1925,1926,1972);
Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004)
25000
40.0
35.0
1915
20000
25.0
Deaths
15000
20.0
10000
15.0
Deaths per 1,000 population
30.0
1940
10.0
5000
Deaths
0
1855
5.0
Deaths per 1,000
l ti
1865
1875
1885
1895
0.0
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
The great progress that has been made in improving the health of Glasgow’s citizens
can perhaps be best illustrated by looking back to 1901, when the distribution of
deaths by age and disease was markedly different to today. In 1901, deaths of
children under five years of age accounted for 41% of all deaths and, of those dying in
their first year of life, 33% of deaths were due to diarrhoeal and respiratory diseases
(532 and 660 total deaths respectively).
Deaths from many infectious diseases, which have all but disappeared in the present
day, were common. Out of an overall total of 15,715 deaths in the city in 1901,
significant numbers of deaths were recorded for the following: smallpox (193 deaths),
diphtheria (115), scarlet fever (131), typhus (10), enteric fever (210), measles (499),
whooping cough (850), diarrhoeal diseases (861), and tubercular diseases (2101). In
contrast, deaths from cancer (498) and circulatory diseases (1154) were far less
prominent overall than now.
Infant deaths
The falling death rates in the city reflect public health advances, better healthcare and
improved life circumstances. The impact of these improvements is seen most vividly
in the dramatic drop in the infant death rate from almost one in five babies dying in
the city in their first year of life (in 1855) to one in forty by 1972 (Figure 2.4). Even
since 1972, infant mortality has dropped significantly (although this is not clearly
shown in the graph) to 7.1 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2004 – a rate which is less
than a third of the rate in 1972.
30
Figure 2.4
Infant Deaths (under 1 year) per 1,000 live births in Glasgow; 1855 - 2004
Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow (1898, 1925,1926,1972);
Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004)
250
196
Infant Deaths per 1,000 births
200
150
100
50
7.1
23
19
27
19
31
19
35
19
39
19
43
19
47
19
51
19
55
19
59
19
63
19
67
19
71
19
75
19
79
19
83
19
87
19
91
19
95
19
99
20
03
19
19
15
19
19
07
11
19
03
19
99
19
95
18
91
18
87
18
83
18
79
18
75
18
71
18
18
63
67
18
59
18
18
18
55
0
However, despite the much higher rates of mortality that were prevalent a hundred
years ago, Glasgow’s comparative position was better in the past than it is today. As
Table 2.1 shows, in 1901, Glasgow had lower infant mortality rates than several
English cities and comparable overall death rates.
Table 2.1
City
in 1901
Glasgow
London
Liverpool
Manchester
Birmingham
Infant mortality
(per 1,000 live births)
149
149
188
199
187
All cause mortality
(per 1,000 population)
21.2
17.6
22.3
22.1
20.5
Implications of birth and death trends
Figure 2.5 below, showing the birth and death rates in the city between 1855 and
2004, demonstrates how the birth rate outstripped the death rate throughout this
period until 1973. In contrast, for most of the period since, deaths have exceeded
births. The implications of this are that, unless fertility rates rise or Glasgow gains
population through net inward migration, the population of the city looks set to reduce
further. Population projections produced by the General Register Office for Scotland,
which are included in the Chapter 3: Population and life expectancy, confirm this.
31
Figure 2.5
Deaths and Births per 1,000 population in Glasgow; 1855 - 2004
Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow (1898, 1925,1926,1972);
Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports (1973-2004)
45
40
Deaths per 1,000 population
35
30
25
20
15
10
Births per 1,000 population
5
Deaths per 1,000 population
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
00
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
40
35
45
19
19
19
25
20
15
10
30
19
19
19
19
19
00
05
19
19
90
95
18
18
80
85
18
18
75
70
18
18
65
60
18
18
18
55
0
2.2 Inequalities one hundred years ago
While health inequalities are a major concern today, there were clearly growing
concerns about the effects of poverty and poor living conditions in late Victorian
times 3 . The following graphs show patterns in population density, birth and death
indicators for sanitary districts i in 1901.
Population density
Population density (see Figure 2.6) – a crude proxy for overcrowding – showed huge
variations across the city from 4.5 persons per acre in Pollokshields West &
Bellahouston and similarly low rates in Kelvinside, to extremely high figures for
Brownfield (357 persons per acre) and St Rollox (354).
i
In 1901, for the purposes of health administration, Glasgow was organised into sanitary districts.
Their average population in 1901 was 23,000, but there was a wide range in their size from St Enoch
Square, the smallest, with a population of 3,000 to Bellgrove and Dennistoun with a population of
nearly 80,000.
32
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Persons per Acre
Figure 2.6
Population Density in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts, 1901
Source: Report of the Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow
400
350
356.7
300
250
200
150
100
50
60.1
0
4.5
Sanitary District
Births
Birth rates in 1901 showed a five-fold variation across the city from 10.5 per 1,000 in
Hillhead and 13.6 per 1,000 in Kelvinside to 49.8 per 1,000 in Port Dundas (Figure
2.7).
Figure 2.7
Birth rates in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts, 1901
Source: Report of the Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow
60
50
49.8
40
30
31.8
20
10
10.5
0
Sanitary District
33
Po
llo
ng
si
de
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d
G
la
Ke
of
sg
ow
Deaths per 1,000 population
25
M lv
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ld
Deaths in first year per 1,000 births
Infant deaths
The Figure below (Figure 2.8) shows infant death rates for Glasgow’s Sanitary
Districts. There was a five-fold variation between the rate of 50 per 1,000 in
Pollokshields West & Bellahouston and that of 242 per 1,000 in Brownfield (part of
the Broomielaw area).
Figure 2.8
Infant Death rates in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts, 1901
Source: Report of the Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow
300
250
242
200
150
149
100
50
50
0
Sanitary District
Deaths
The overall crude death rates per 1,000 followed a similar pattern (see Figure 2.9)
with the lowest rates in Kelvinside (8.3) and the highest rates in Brownfield (40.4).
Figure 2.9
Death rates in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts, 1901
45
Source: Report of the Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow
40
40.4
35
30
20
20.6
15
10
8.3
5
0
Sanitary District
34
The 1901 Medical Officer of Health’s report noted that, during the preceding 30
years, most sanitary districts had shown a reduction in death rates. However, two
were largely unchanged, Cowcaddens and Brownfield, and the report commented that
in these districts “the mass of insanitary conditions affects so large a proportion of the
inhabitants that the district death rates, as a whole, are influenced thereby”. The areas
were compared unfavourably to Kelvinhaugh & Sandyford and Pollokshields West &
Bellahouston, which apart from Kelvinside, had the lowest death rates in the city.
These comments and the preceding graphs illustrate the truth of the observation that
“where you live, the class into which you were born, the size of your family, and your
access to ‘improvements’ in housing, diet and medical care – were all critical
influences upon life and death in Glasgow” 4 . In Glasgow at the beginning of the 21st
century this comment still retains validity, as will be illustrated in subsequent
chapters. It is also notable from these figures that many of the healthiest and least
healthy communities within the city remain unchanged from a hundred years ago.
The next chapter of this report returns to the theme of health inequalities and
illustrates the persistence of mortality and life expectancy inequalities in Glasgow at
the beginning of the 21st century.
Life expectancy and overcrowding
In the 1925 Medical Officer of Health report for Glasgow, the difference in life
expectancy by size of house (a proxy for overcrowding) was demonstrated. For girls
aged ten, there was an estimated difference in future expected years of life of 12 years
between those living in one apartment houses (46.9 years) and those living in housing
of four apartments or more (58.8 years) (see Figure 2.10). For boys of the same age,
the equivalent gap in expected future years of life was only three years.
Figure 2.10
Expected future years of life at 10 by size of house and by gender for Glasgow;
(calculated on the basis of 1911 Census and deaths between Oct 1909 and Sept 1912)
Source: Report of the Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow, 1925 (p34)
70
Males at age 10
Females at age 10
60
58.8
54.7
52.5
Expected future years of life at 10
50.0
50
49.6
53.1
49.9
51.7
49.8
46.9
40
30
20
10
0
1 Apartment
2 Apartments
3 Apartments
4 Apartments or more
Whole City
35
Overcrowding, and poor living conditions in general, and their relationships to illhealth were already well-recognised concerns, which had prompted a range of
measures aimed at improving living environments. These included slum clearances,
improvements to sewage and water quality, redesign of tenements, tighter planning
controls and housing developments aimed at spreading the population and re-housing
people in less cramped circumstances. However, the issue of overcrowding was still a
major concern in 1921 with over 270,000 people, 28% of the city’s population, living
in accommodation where there were more than three occupants per room (Figure
2.11). A presentation and discussion of more recent trends and inequalities in
overcrowding is contained within Chapter 6: Physical environment.
Figure 2.11
Overcrowding in Glasgow in 1921 - percentage of occupants living more than 3 per
room of all occupants by size of house
Source: Report of the Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow, 1925 (p190); original source 1921 Census
All houses
27.8%
Number of rooms
4 rooms or more
0.5%
3 rooms
7.7%
35.3%
2 rooms
1 room
59.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
%
36
2.3 Improvements in life expectancy
Life expectancy trends in Glasgow from the early 1820s onwards (see Figure 2.12)
demonstrate the exceptionally low life expectancy of men and women in the city
during the 19th century. It is only from around 1900 onwards that a notable rise in life
expectancy in the city occurs. Life expectancy for men and women has
approximately doubled over the last 100 years.
Figure 2.12
Expected future years of life at birth by gender for Glasgow; 1821-27 to 2001-03
Source: Report of the Medical Officer of Health, Glasgow, 1925; Office for National Statistics, 2004
90
80
76.4
Expected future years of life at birth
70
69.1
60
52.2
50
48.4
40
37.7
36.6
34.1
30
32.6
35.2
30.9
20
Males
10
Females
0
1821-27
1870-72
1881-90
1920-22
2001-2003
The following chapter (Chapter 3: Population and life expectancy) provides further
analysis of life expectancy trends, particularly in relation to deprivation.
37
Summary
This chapter has attempted to highlight some of the key health and demographic
trends that have occurred in Glasgow in the last 150 or so years.
x
There was extraordinary population growth from the beginning of the 1800s into
the 1920s, followed by a brief period of stability in the 1930s and 1940s, and then
a decline, which became rapid from the 1960s until 2000. The population in
recent years has reached relative stability at around 570-580,000, although further
reductions are predicted.
x
There has been a steady reduction in the birth rate from the 1860s onwards with
the birth rate in 2004 approximately one quarter of the rate in 1860.
x
Over the same period the death rate has dropped significantly.
x
The death rate now exceeds the birth rate; a reversal of the pattern prevalent from
1855 to the 1970s. Without a resurgence in the fertility rate or inward migration
Glasgow’s population is likely to drop further.
x
The downward trend in infant mortality underlines the huge improvements in
public health, hospital treatment, sanitation and housing that have been achieved
over the last 150 years. Even in the last 40 years the infant mortality rate has
dropped significantly from 22 per 1,000 live births in 1972 to 7.1 per 1,000 live
births in 2004.
x
Inequalities in health have been present throughout the entire period.
x
Compared to other large cities, Glasgow’s health position has not always been as
bad as it is now. In 1901 Glasgow’s infant mortality and overall mortality rates
were lower or on a par with those in Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham.
x
Despite the poor comparative position of Glasgow’s health currently in relation to
other parts of Scotland and the UK, it is important to bear in mind that overall life
expectancy for both men and women has doubled over the last 100 years,
increasing by approximately 34 years and 39 years, respectively, since the late
19th century.
38
References
1
City of Glasgow Corporation. Reports of Medical Officer of Health, City of
Glasgow. 1898, 1925, 1926, 1972
2
General Register Office for Scotland. The Registrar General for Scotland’s Annual
Reports, 1973-2004.
http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/annrep/index.html
3
Booth C. Inquiry into the Life and Labour of the People in London. various
publications, 1889-1903
4
Fraser W H, Maver I, eds. Glasgow, Volume II: 1839-1912. 1996
39
The City of Glasgow, with a population of 577,000, and Greater Glasgow NHS Board,
with a population of 867,000, are the largest council and NHS Board, respectively, in
Scotland.
Among West of Scotland councils, Glasgow City has one of the lowest proportions of
children in its population but the highest proportion of people of working age.
In Glasgow, the proportions of men and women of pensionable age are strikingly
different: 22% of women compared with 12% of men.
Forecasts predict that the population of Glasgow City will reduce further in the next 20
years, but Glasgow will retain a relatively stable, low dependency ratio in contrast to
other West of Scotland councils, where dependency ratios will rise.
Despite the prediction of a continuation of falling population size overall, numbers of
households are predicted to rise.
It is predicted that by 2016 single adult households will account for 49% of all
households in Glasgow and single parent households will make up almost one in two
households with children.
Trends in overall deaths are downward, but the mortality gap between the communities
with the highest and lowest mortality has widened noticeably.
People are living longer, but when the West of Scotland councils are compared there is
an eight year gap in male life expectancy with Glasgow having the lowest life
expectancy (69.1) and East Dunbartonshire (77.2) the highest.
Female life expectancy, while better than male life expectancy, also displays a variation
of around four and a half years across the West of Scotland councils.
Within Greater Glasgow the polarity in life expectancy is clear: for instance, there is an
estimated 15 year gap in male life expectancy between Bridgeton & Dennistoun and
Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie.
Over the last twenty years, life expectancy in the 20% most affluent and 20% least
affluent communities has diverged markedly; the gap in male life expectancy in the
region between the most and least affluent communities has widened to nearly 12 years.
It is notable how relatively young people are when they are first affected by limiting
longstanding illness, as is the length of time people, particularly women, live with a
limiting long-term illness.
Despite overall reductions in mortality, huge health inequalities remain and indeed such
inequalities appear, on the basis of a number of different mortality and life expectancy
measures, to have widened over the last ten to 20 years.
“Greater Glasgow not only has the communities with the highest mortality
rates in Scotland, but also those with the lowest mortality.”
“The 15 year gap in male life expectancy between Bridgeton & Dennistoun
and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie highlights the differences in life
circumstances, lifestyles and life chances that exist in the city.”
“It is predicted that single adult households will account for 49% of all
households in Glasgow by 2016.”
Chapter 3: Population and life expectancy
Summary
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 3: Population and life expectancy
The previous chapter described some of Glasgow’s historical demographic trends. In
this chapter we look at recent demographic and health trends across Glasgow and the
West of Scotland, and highlight health inequalities within the region. Specifically, we
focus on a number of key themes:
x population – including population density, population structure, dependency
ratios, population change and future projections;
x household structure and household projections;
x vital statistics, in terms of births and deaths;
x life expectancy, in terms of patterns of inequality, trends and healthy life
expectancy.
3.1 Population size and density
Of the estimated 5,078,400 people living in Scotland 1 , just over 42% (2.1 million)
live in the West of Scotland. The city of Glasgow with a population of 577,000 and
Greater Glasgow NHS Board (population - 867,000) are the largest council and NHS
Board, respectively, in Scotland.
Population densities in all the West of Scotland council areas are higher than the
Scottish average, reflecting the urbanised nature of the region. However, within that,
there is a wide spectrum of population densities across the West of Scotland councils
(see Figure 3.1), ranging from Glasgow City with the highest concentration of people
(3,292 persons per square kilometre or 33 per hectare) to South Ayrshire with the
lowest population density (92 persons per square kilometre or 0.9 per hectare).
Figure 3.1
Population density (persons per sq. km), West of Scotland council areas, 2004
Source: General Register Office for Scotland
3,500
3,292
3,000
2,000
1,500
1,000
516
514
579
610
687
653
500
172
154
95
92
65
La
na
rk
sh
ire
N
or
th
R
en
fre
w
sh
ire
sh
ire
W
es
tD
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
Ea
st
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
en
fre
w
Ea
st
R
In
ve
rc
ly
de
ks
hi
re
La
na
r
rs
hi
re
Ay
or
th
So
ut
h
re
sh
i
N
st
Ay
r
Ea
ity
Ay
rs
hi
re
So
ut
h
C
G
la
sg
ow
TL
AN
D
0
SC
O
Persons per sq km
2,500
Council
43
3.2 Population structure
Population age structure by council
The age and sex population structures of West of Scotland council areas vary greatly.
Currently, the average age for a man in Scotland is 38 years, while the average age for
a woman is slightly older at 41 years. In many of the West of Scotland councils, the
average age of the male population is younger than the Scottish average. In Glasgow
City, the average age of males is 36 years, the youngest average age among the West
of Scotland councils. The average age of a woman in the West of Scotland is close to
the Scottish average, but it is slightly lower in Glasgow at 40 and higher in South
Ayrshire at 44 years of age.
Figures 3.2 and 3.3 show the proportions of the male and female population,
respectively, in three age groups – ‘under 16’, ‘working age’ and ‘pensionable age’ i .
Figure 3.2
Male population age structure, 2004
West of Scotland council areas
(Source: General Register Office for Scotland)
100%
12
14
17
14
14
13
14
13
15
15
12
14
80%
% of population
% under 16
% working age
% pensionable age
60%
67
69
20
18
64
67
66
66
65
67
64
64
67
63
20
20
20
20
20
21
21
21
23
40%
20%
18
yr
sh
ire
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
N
or
th
Ay
rs
Ea
hi
re
st
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
N
re
or
th
La
na
rk
sh
Ea
ire
st
R
en
fre
w
sh
ire
W
es
t
Ea
st
A
La
na
rk
sh
ire
So
ut
h
In
ve
rc
ly
de
R
en
fre
w
sh
ire
Ay
rs
hi
re
So
ut
h
C
ity
la
sg
ow
G
SC
O
TL
AN
D
0%
Council
i
Working age: 16-64 years for men and 16-59 years for women. Pensionable age: 65 years and older
for men and 60 years and older for women.
44
Figure 3.3
Female population age structure, 2004
West of Scotland council areas
(Source: General Register Office for Scotland)
100%
90%
24
22
59
62
17
16
23
24
25
28
23
25
25
24
21
24
80%
% of population
70%
60%
% under 16
50%
55
% working age
% pensionable age
58
59
59
57
59
57
58
60
57
17
17
17
18
18
18
18
19
19
40%
30%
20%
10%
16
re
sh
i
en
f re
w
R
ks
hi
re
th
or
Ea
st
La
na
r
yr
sh
ire
Ea
st
A
N
Ea
st
Du
nb
ar
to
ns
hi
re
La
na
rk
sh
i re
So
ut
th
or
N
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
sh
ire
re
w
en
f
R
ar
to
ns
hi
re
ly
de
W
es
tD
un
b
In
ve
rc
re
Ay
rs
hi
h
So
ut
C
G
la
sg
ow
SC
O
TL
AN
D
i ty
0%
Council
Glasgow City has one of the lowest proportions of ‘under 16s’ in its population, but
also has the highest proportion of people of ‘working age’ compared to other West of
Scotland councils. Conversely, nearby East Renfrewshire has a strikingly different
population structure with a lower than average proportion of its population that is
‘working age’, but a higher than average proportion of ‘under 16s’.
There is almost double the proportion of Scottish women who are of ‘pensionable
age’ compared to men (24% vs 14%). This is in part because the pensionable age for
women (60 years of age) is five years younger than for men, but it also reflects the
greater longevity of women. In Glasgow the proportions of men and women who are
of ‘pensionable age’ are strikingly different: 22% of women compared to 12% of
men.
Population age structure by community and postcode sector
The population age structure within West of Scotland ‘communities’ ii and postcode
sectors can be summarised from Census data compiled in NHS Health Scotland’s
Community Health and Well-being profiles 2 .
The percentage of the Scottish population who were children (‘under 16’) in 2001 was
19% and the proportion of children in most West of Scotland communities varied
only slightly from this national figure (Figure 3.4). However, two communities did
stand out as having low proportions of children, Bridgeton & Dennistoun and
Glasgow West End (both 14%).
ii
These are primary care-based localities (mainly the old Local Healthcare Cooperative (LHCC) areas
or, in some cases, the new Community Health (Care) Partnerships (CH(C)Ps)) with populations
ranging from 20,000-140,000 people. For further details see ‘Preface to Chapters 2-12’.
45
Figure 3.4
% of population who are children (under 16 years), 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
25
19
20
18
15
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
21
21
21
21
21
14
%
14
10
5
Br
id
G
ge
to
n
Sc
ot
&
De land
la
nn
sg
ow isto
un
W
So est
E
ut
So
nd
h
ut
A
h
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s
G
t G ire
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am rea
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te
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r S sgo
sl
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an
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w
g
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is
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ar
le
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y
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ds
n
rn
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e
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&
l
l
ey
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la
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m
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ilt
on
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ly
de
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al
In
e
ve
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de
st
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rs
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hi
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re
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w
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or
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ni
t
w
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h
es
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la
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rs
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/B
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r
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r
e
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iln
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e
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in
rd
o
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rie
e
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&
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e
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h
tb
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g
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la
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w
st
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lb
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rid
um
e
be
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r
st
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ul
n
d
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C
la
ly
sg
de
ow
ba
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nk
s
tw
&
o
D
od
ru
m
ch
ap
el
0
Community
At the postcode sector level, there is greater variation. Figure 3.5 compares the ten
postcode sectors in the West of Scotland with the highest proportions of children in
their populations with the ten sectors with the lowest proportions. Unsurprisingly, in
the sectors covering Glasgow City Centre only 3% of the population are children, and
there are a handful of other areas where the proportion of children in the population is
10% or lower. The ten areas with the highest proportion of children tend, with two
exceptions (Cumbernauld Village & Dullatur; Perceton, Scourlie, Doura &
Roddinghill) to be among the more deprived parts of the West of Scotland.
Figure 3.5
% of population who are children (under 16 years), 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
35
30
26
27
27
27
28
28
28
28
29
29
25
19
%
20
15
10
6
5
7
8
8
9
10
10
10
11
3
C
Sc
ot
la
nd
ity
C
en
tre
To
w
nh
G
re
ea
en
d
oc
k
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en
tra
l
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lv
rin
gr
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ar
ov
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e
ur
an
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illh
d
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ea
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d
w
n
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rt
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un
rk
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s;
ll
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rti
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ck
es
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e
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m
ch
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e
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rg
us
lie
Pa
rk
0
Postcode sector
46
There are relatively small variations in the proportion of the population in the 16-64
age group comparing across communities in the West of Scotland (Figure 3.6). The
lowest proportion of 16-64 year olds were in Clydebank & Drumchapel, Eastwood
and South West Glasgow (all 62%), while the highest concentrations of this age group
were in Bridgeton & Dennistoun and Glasgow West End (71%).
Figure 3.6
% of population who are adults aged 16- 64 years, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
72
71
71
70
67
68
%
66
65
64
62
62
62
63
63
63
64
64
64
64
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
66
66
66
66
66
62
60
58
C
ly
de
ba
nk
Sc
ot
&
la
D
nd
ru
m
ch
ap
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el
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ut
h
st
W
w
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oo
es
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d
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es
la
la
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sg
nd
ut
ow
/B
h
ea
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rs
rs
de
hi
n/
re
M
Ea
iln
ga
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er
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n
e
G
la
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sg
or
o
th
w
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rs
hi
re
In
C
ve
am
Ea rcly
bu
de
st
sl
an
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g
rs
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hi
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re
ut
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rg
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le
n
st
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lb
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is
rid
le
ar
y
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e
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ill/
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d
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is
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ha
oo
v
w
ds
er
n
id
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e
&
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y
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la
sg
o
C
w
ly
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sd
al
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e
ot
he
rw
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S
A
e
en
tra
ll
ird
fre
th
rie
ke
w
&
lv
&
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i
n
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es
t R tbri
dg
en
e
fre
w
sh
ire
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m
on
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d
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re
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at
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ilt
on
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ut
aw
h
la
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nd
st
s
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l
a
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id
um
ow
ge
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to
n
rn
&
au
D
ld
G
e
nn
la
sg
is
to
ow
un
W
es
tE
nd
56
Community
At the postcode sector level, there is a wider variation in the proportions of population
who are adults aged 16-64 (Figure 3.7). It is notable, however, that the ten areas with
the highest rates of 16-64 year olds are all in parts of Glasgow that have either
undergone recent regeneration (e.g. Tradeston & Gorbals; City Centre) or are part of
the West End of Glasgow (e.g. Hyndland, Hillhead, Kelvingrove). These areas tend
to have higher house prices, are favoured by younger adults, including students, and
appear to attract fewer families with children.
47
Figure 3.7
% of population who are adults aged 16-64 years, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
100
90
77
80
70
80
79
79
81
86
86
82
88
65
60
%
77
55
54
55
57
57
55
57
58
57
57
50
40
30
20
10
Ke
Tr
lv
ad
in
es
N
to
n
;G
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yn
or
dl
ba
an
ls
d;
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ow
an
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ll
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c
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ll
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rt
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s
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dl
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ds
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d
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lv
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e
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ity
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le
e
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ig
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rk
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r;
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lm
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ch
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ig
ht
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d
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e
ig
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l
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os
sp
ar
k
Sc
ot
la
nd
0
Postcode sector
There was relatively little variation in the proportion of older persons (aged 65 or
over) in the population across the West of Scotland communities (Figure 3.8). The
two extremes are Cumbernauld with the lowest percentage (12%) and South Ayrshire
with the highest percentage (19%).
Figure 3.8
% of population who are adults aged 65 years and over, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
25
19
20
16
14
15
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
17
17
17
17
%
12
10
5
R
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0
Community
48
Across postcode sectors in the West of Scotland, much wider variations are apparent
(Figure 3.9). Of the ten areas with the lowest proportions of elderly, none had more
than 8% of elderly people in the population, while in the ten areas with the highest
proportions, all ten had populations where more than 25% were 65 or over.
Figure 3.9
% of population who are adults aged 65 years or older, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest
West of Scotland and Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
45
38
40
35
33
32
30
27
27
27
28
28
29
30
%
25
20
16
15
10
5
5
5
6
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
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um
be
l
s
La
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t
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Postcode sector
Dependency ratios
Dependency ratios – which can loosely be described as the young and old as a
proportion of working age adults in a population iii – can be calculated for Scotland
and for each West of Scotland council iv (Figure 3.10). For Scotland as a whole in
2004, the dependency ratio is 53%, but it varies greatly within the West of Scotland,
from 60% in East Renfrewshire to 48% in Glasgow. A lower ratio in theory reflects
lower economic dependency. However, the measure does not take into account those
who are of working age but economically inactive due to illness, incapacity or other
reasons.
iii
In econometric terms, it is the ratio of the economically dependent part of the population, to the
productive part, where the economically dependent part is recognised to be children, who are too young
to work, and adults of pensionable age, while the productive part of the population are those of working
age. In theory this gives a dependency ratio = 100 x (‘under 16’ + ‘pensionable’) / ‘working age’.
iv
As applied here, the dependency ratio = 100 x (‘population under 16 years’ + ‘population of 65 years
or more’)/ ‘population aged 16-64’.
49
Figure 3.10
Population Dependency Ratios1, 2004
West of Scotland council areas
Source: General Register Office for Scotland
70%
60%
53%
52%
53%
53%
53%
59%
57%
57%
55%
55%
60%
48%
50%
%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Ay
rs
hi
re
Ea
st
R
en
fre
w
sh
ire
So
ut
h
to
ns
hi
re
D
un
ba
r
sh
ire
Council
Ea
st
N
or
th
Ay
r
yr
sh
ire
Ea
st
A
In
ve
rc
ly
de
to
ns
hi
re
ks
hi
re
es
t
D
un
ba
r
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na
r
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So
ut
h
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r
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or
th
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en
fre
w
sh
ire
ks
hi
re
C
ity
G
la
sg
ow
SC
O
TL
AN
D
0%
1
Dependency Ratio: 100 x (Population under 16 years + Population of 65 years or more) / Population aged 16-64
Dependency ratios at a community level (from the Community Profiles) varied from
41% and 42% respectively in Glasgow West End and Bridgeton & Dennistoun to
61% in Clydebank & Drumchapel (Figure 3.11).
Figure 3.11
Population Dependency Ratios1, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
70%
60%
54%
48%
50%
59% 60% 60% 61%
58% 59%
56% 56% 57%
54% 54% 54% 55% 55% 56%
53%
53%
53%
52%
51% 51% 51% 52%
41% 42%
%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Br
id
G
Sc
la
sg
ot
ow
la
nd
ge
W
to
es
n
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&
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n
d
en
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s
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um tou
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n
ut
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h
rn
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au
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ld
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G
re
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at
s
er
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Sh
w
aw
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en
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fre
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ilt
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t R om
on
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rie
w
sh
&
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oa
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ar
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in
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he
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rw
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sd
&
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al
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la
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&
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gl
e
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rs
hi
re
In
ve
rc
N
An
ly
or
de
ni
th
es
Ea
Ay
la
rs
st
nd
e
h
/B
rn
ire
ea
G
la
rs
sg
de
ow
n/
M
iln
So
ga
So
ut
vi
e
h
ut
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h
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rs
hi
es
r
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C
la
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sg
de
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ba
E
nk
as
tw
&
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D
ru
d
m
ch
ap
el
0%
Community
1
Dependency Ratio: 100 x (Population under 16 years + Population of 65 years or more)/ Population aged 16-64
50
At a postcode sector level, the differences between the areas with the highest and
lowest proportions are large (Figure 3.12). The ten areas in the West of Scotland with
the lowest dependency ratios were all in Glasgow and are areas with lower than
average proportions of children and higher than average proportions of working age
adults. The areas with the highest dependency ratios tend to also have higher than
average elderly populations.
Figure 3.12
1
Population Dependency Ratio , 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest
West of Scotland and Glasgow
Source: NHS HS - Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
90%
82%
81%
80%
74%
73%
76%
76%
75%
84%
82%
77%
70%
60%
54%
%
50%
40%
31%
30%
22%
20%
14%
16%
24%
24%
27%
31%
27%
16%
10%
rg
s
G
re
en
oc
k
La
rk
C
en
tra
l
or
t
il l p
os
sp
a
M
M
ig
to
n;
ra
C
m
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ig
e
ht
sw
oo
d
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t
on
Pa
r
kh
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Kn
E
Be
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r;
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m
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ts
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gh
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ng
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irc
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s;
ad
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nd
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en
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rk
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ll
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yn
r
t
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kh
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d;
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Tr
ow
ad
a
nh
es
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to
n;
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or
ba
ls
Ke
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in
N
Pa
rk
Po
rt
Ke
l
nd
ity
C
Sc
ot
la
C
en
tre
0%
1
Postcode sector
Dependency Ratio: (Population under 16 years + Population of 65 years or more)/ Population aged 16-64
Projections of future dependency ratios at a council level are included in the next
section.
3.4 Population change and population projections
Population change
The General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) has produced tables estimating
population changes, and the sub-components of change such as migration, births and
deaths, over the period 1994-20041 (Table 3.1). The analysis shows that over this tenyear period there was net migration v into Scotland but that overall the population
dropped by 0.5%. The pattern within the West of Scotland is quite mixed. In East
Renfrewshire the population has increased by 3.4% as a result of inward migration
and ‘natural growth’ (births exceeding deaths) over the period. Glasgow City shows
the greatest overall drop in population (34,590), two thirds of which is accounted for
by outward migration and a third by a death rate that has exceeded the birth rate.
Inverclyde shows the largest overall population decline – 7.7%, over the period.
v
Includes movements to/from armed forces and an adjustment for a recurring unattributable
population change based on the 2001 Census, which is assumed to be unmeasured migration.
51
Table 3.1
Components of population change, West of Scotland council areas, 1994-2004
Source: General Register Office for Scotland
Estimated
population
Births
Deaths
30 June 1994
Estimated
Estimated
Natural
net civilian
population
Population change
change
migration and
30 June 2004
Number
%
other changes
SCOTLAND
5,102,210
557,631
589,385
-31,754
7,944
5,078,400
-23,810
-0.5
612,260
70,437
81,191
-10,754
-23,836
577,670
-34,590
-5.6
Glasgow City
East Renfrewshire
86,660
9,713
8,567
1,146
1,804
89,610
2,950
3.4
South Lanarkshire
305,220
33,229
33,845
-616
806
305,410
190
0.1
North Lanarkshire
323,830
39,121
35,317
3,804
-4,844
322,790
-1,040
-0.3
North Ayrshire
137,550
14,881
16,405
-1,524
-6
136,020
-1,530
-1.1
South Ayrshire
113,550
10,697
14,830
-4,133
2,433
111,850
-1,700
-1.5
East Dunbartonshire
109,540
10,643
9,933
710
-3,700
106,550
-2,990
-2.7
Renfrewshire
175,460
19,717
20,557
-840
-4,010
170,610
-4,850
-2.8
East Ayrshire
123,250
13,068
14,869
-1,801
-1,729
119,720
-3,530
-2.9
West Dunbartonshire
96,780
10,717
11,801
-1,084
-3,726
91,970
-4,810
-5.0
Inverclyde
89,320
9,277
11,641
-2,364
-4,526
82,430
-6,890
-7.7
Population projections
The 2004 based population projections from the General Register Office for
Scotland 3 forecast that Scotland’s population will rise by 0.8% between 2004 and
2024 (see Figure 3.13), resulting in a projected population of around 5,119,000
(40,000 more than at present). However, the actual period of population growth is
between 2004 and 2014, after which the Scottish population is predicted to reduce.
The majority of West of Scotland councils are predicted to lose population up to 2024
with the largest decreases in Inverclyde (-13.6%) and East Dunbartonshire (-10.5%).
It is predicted Glasgow City will have lost 4.4% of its population by 2024, or around
25,000 people overall. Small population increases are predicted for South
Lanarkshire (+4.1%), East Renfrewshire (+3%) and North Lanarkshire (+0.3%).
Figure 3.13
Projected Population Changes in Scotland, 2004-2024,
West of Scotland council areas
Source: based on 2004 based population projections, GROS
South Lanarkshire
4.1%
3.0%
East Renfrewshire
0.3%
North Lanarkshire
-2.5%
South Ayrshire
-2.9%
East Ayrshire
-5.0%
North Ayrshire
-8.6%
Renfrewshire
-8.7%
West Dunbartonshire
East Dunbartonshire
-10.5%
-13.6%
Inverclyde
-4.4%
Glasgow City
0.8%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
SCOTLAND
2%
4%
6%
% Change in overall population
52
Detailed projections by age and sex are available from GROS. The following graphs
are derived from these projections. The Figure below shows projected changes across
six age bands at a Scottish level between 2004 and 2024 (Figure 3.14). The
predictions for Scotland confirm a number of now well-known patterns.
x
Our population is ageing and the number of older people will increase markedly
(nearly 200,000 more in 75+ population and 130,000 more in 65-74 years age
band).
Our ‘working age’ population will get older (140,000 more in 50-64 age group)
but will also shrink (overall 171,000 less in 16-64 age group).
Overall the number of children under 16 in the population will shrink dramatically
by 115,000 or by 12%.
x
x
Figure 3.14
Population projections by age band, Scotland, 2004 vs 2024
Source: based on 2004 based population projections, General Register Office for Scotland
1600
1502
1400
1263
2004
1200
2024
Population in thousands
1075
1000
935
933
881
820
807
800
585
600
569
455
371
400
200
0
0-15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Age band
For Glasgow (see Figure 3.15), a slightly different set of population changes are
predicted. The number of children under 16 is set to decrease by 13,000 or 13%.
There are large drops predicted in the 16-49 age bands, representing a reduction of
33,000 people, but the population aged 50-64 is set to grow by 24%. Unlike the
overall Scottish pattern, the population in older age groups (65 years and above) will
remain relatively stable, rather than increasing as elsewhere, which in part may reflect
the poorer life expectancy in areas of Glasgow.
53
Figure 3.15
Population projections by age band, Glasgow, 2004 vs 2024
Source: based on 2004 based population projections, General Register Office for Scotland
200
2004
174
180
2024
163
160
Population in thousands
140
131
120
110
106
99
100
86
85
80
60
49
47
40
38
40
20
0
0-15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Age band
Projections of dependency ratios
The population projections allow a calculation of changes in dependency ratios vi over
the same period (2004-2024). For Scotland (see Figure 3.16) the projections imply an
increase in the dependency ratio for the country as a whole and this is mirrored in
most of the West of Scotland councils with the exception of Glasgow, which
maintains a virtually unchanged position of having a relatively low dependency ratio
up to 2024.
Figure 3.16
Dependency Ratio Projections, West of Scotland council areas, 2004 and 2024
Source: based on 2004 based population projections, General Register Office for Scotland
80%
2004
2024
70%
Dependency Ratio (%)
63%
60%
53%
48%
50%
60%
53%
53%
52%
67%
66%
65%
63%
63%
61%
55%
53%
57%
55%
76%
73%
72%
69%
59%
57%
46%
40%
30%
20%
10%
re
hi
rs
Ay
ut
h
So
N
or
th
Ay
rs
hi
hi
re
re
ire
un
Ea
st
D
en
f re
ba
rto
ns
w
sh
ly
de
In
ve
rc
Ea
st
R
Ea
st
Ay
rs
hi
re
w
sh
ire
fre
en
R
un
b
ar
to
n
sh
na
rk
sh
i
ut
h
So
W
es
tD
La
na
r
La
or
th
N
ire
re
re
hi
ks
C
w
go
la
s
G
SC
O
TL
AN
D
ity
0%
Council
vi
As previously, the dependency ratio = 100 x (‘population under 16 years’ + ‘population of 65 years
or more’)/ ‘population aged 16-64’.
54
3.5 Household projections
Across Scotland, the number of households is projected to increase by 7% over the
period 2002-2016 according to recently published GROS forecasts 4 . Within the West
of Scotland, the largest growth will be in East Renfrewshire (11%), while in
Inverclyde the number of households is forecast to reduce by 1%. In Glasgow City a
6% increase in households is forecast, which equates to the number of households in
Glasgow rising by 15,300 to a total of 290,030 (Figure 3.17) vii .
Figure 3.17
Projected change in numbers of households, West of Scotland council areas,
2002 vs 2016
Source: General Register Office for Scotland
300,000
290,030
250,000
2002
2016
Households
200,000
145,500
138,150
150,000
100,000
76,320
62,180
50,000
43,840
42,200
39,180
37,170
51,350
49,980
ire
ks
h
La
or
th
N
So
ut
h
La
n
na
r
ar
k
w
sh
fre
R
en
Ay
or
th
N
sh
ire
ire
ire
rs
h
ire
yr
sh
tA
Ea
s
Ay
r
sh
ir e
ire
ar
to
tD
un
b
ar
to
Ea
s
un
b
So
ut
h
ns
h
ire
ns
h
ire
w
sh
W
es
tD
Ea
s
tR
en
fre
ve
r
In
G
la
sg
o
w
C
cl
yd
ity
e
0
Council
These projections also predict changes in the relative proportions of different types of
households (see Figure 3.18). In Glasgow City, single adult households with no
children will rise as a proportion of all households will rise from 42.4% in 2002 to
49% in 2016. The percentage of ‘households with two or more adults and children’ is
projected to decrease from 16.1% in 2002 to 11.6% by 2016. Over the same period
the percentage of lone parent households is projected to increase marginally from
9.4% to 10.5% of all households.
vii
Please note that the household numbers displayed above each set of columns are for 2016.
55
Figure 3.18
Projected trend in % mix of households, Glasgow City, 2002 - 2016
Source: General Register Office for Scotland
100%
9.4%
10.5%
16.1%
11.6%
32.1%
28.9%
42.4%
49.0%
90%
80%
% of all households
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2002
2003
2004
Households with 1 Adult
2005
2006
2007
Households with 2 or more Adults
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Housholds with 2 or more adults and one or more children
2014
2015
2016
Households with 1 Adult with Child(ren)
Single adult households with no children are predicted to increase significantly across
the whole of Scotland. Over the period 2002 to 2016, the GROS forecasts that
nationally the figure for single adult households with no children expressed as a
percentage of all households will rise from 33% in 2002 to 39% in 2016 (see Figure
3.19). In Glasgow the predicted rise suggests that, in 2016, single adult households
with no children will make up 142,000 out of the 290,000 households in the city.
Figure 3.19
Projected change in % of single adult households with no children
West of Scotland council areas, 2002 vs 2016
Source: General Register Office for Scotland
60%
2002
42%
39%
40%
35%
32%
31%
30%
26%
31%
29%
31%
35%
35%
34%
32%
30%
42%
42%
41%
39%
38%
38%
37%
33%
25%
20%
10%
rc
ly
de
ve
W
es
tD
In
rto
un
ba
fre
ns
hi
re
w
sh
ire
re
R
en
N
or
th
Ay
rs
hi
ar
ks
hi
re
La
n
na
r
N
or
th
La
h
So
ut
h
Ay
ks
hi
re
rs
hi
re
rs
hi
re
Ay
st
So
ut
hi
re
Ea
ire
fre
R
en
st
D
un
Ea
st
Ea
ba
r to
ns
w
sh
w
la
sg
o
G
ot
la
C
nd
ity
0%
Sc
% of all households
2016
49%
50%
Council
56
Nationally, lone parent households viii as a percentage of all households are projected
to increase by 12%. The GROS’ household projections also allow a calculation of
lone parent households expressed as a percentage of all households with children (see
Figure 3.20). Based on these projections, the 2002 national figure of 23% is predicted
to increase to 33% by 2016. For Glasgow, the equivalent figure for 2002 is 37% and
this is forecast to rise to 48% by 2016. All the West of Scotland councils show
similar rises. However, Glasgow has by far the largest proportion of current and
projected lone parent households.
Figure 3.20
Projected change in lone parent households as a percentage of all households with children, West
of Scotland council areas, 2002 vs. 2016
60%
2002
2016
48%
50%
40%
37%
33%
23%
23%
20%
33%
33%
31%
29%
29%
27%
21%
41%
39%
37%
36%
30%
20%
27%
25%
24%
22%
20%
14%
14%
10%
re
hi
Ay
rs
th
or
N
hi
re
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
La
na
rk
s
W
es
t
N
or
th
In
ve
rc
ly
de
sh
ire
w
hi
re
rk
s
R
en
fre
ire
Ay
r
La
na
So
ut
h
So
ut
h
Ay
r
rto
sh
sh
ire
re
hi
Ea
st
ns
sh
w
fre
en
Du
nb
a
Ea
st
st
R
Ea
G
la
sg
ow
C
ity
ire
0%
Sc
ot
la
nd
Lone parents as % of all households with children
Source: General Register Office for Scotland
Council
3.6 Minority ethnic population
According to the 2001 Census, only 2% of the Scottish population are from a minority
ethnic group. However, there are large variations across the West of Scotland and
particular parts of Glasgow have much higher concentrations of ethnic minorities. In
fact, most Glasgow communities have a larger proportion of persons from an ethnic
minority group than the Scottish average. In South East Glasgow and Glasgow West
End over 6% of the population are from an ethnic minority, while in Greater
Shawlands the figure rises to nearly 17% (Figure 3.21).
viii
Please note the definition of lone parent households used here differs from that used in Chapter 5:
Social environment, which refers to data drawn from NHS Health Scotland’s Community Profiles.
57
Figure 3.21
% of population who are from an ethnic minority group, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
18
16.9
16
14
12
%
10
8
6.7
6.7
5.5
6
3.8
4
4.3
4.4
2.4
2.0
2
4.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
Ea
st
Sc
ot
la
nd
Ay
rs
N
or
hi
re
th
Ay
So
rs
hi
ut
re
h
Ay
C
ly
rs
de
hi
C
ba
re
ly
nk
de
sd
&
D
al
ru
e
m
ch
ap
el
Lo
m
on
Ai
I
d
n
rd
ve
Pa
rie
rc
is
&
ly
le
de
C
y
oa
an
C
am
tb
d
rid
Le
bu
ge
ve
sl
rn
an
g
Va
&
lle
R
y
ut
he
rg
Ea
le
n
st
Ki
lb
rid
R
en
e
H
fre
am
w
ilt
&
on
W
es
W
is
tR
ha
en
w
fre
w
sh
ire
M
ot
he
rw
C
um
el
l
be
Ea
rn
st
au
er
n
ld
G
la
M
sg
ar
So
St
ow
yh
ra
ut
ill/
th
h
W
ke
W
oo
es
lv
in
ds
tG
id
la
e
Br
sg
An
&
id
ow
ni
N
g
et
es
G
on
la
la
sg
nd
&
ow
/B
D
en
ea
ni
rs
st
de
o
n/
un
M
iln
ga
vi
So
e
Ea
ut
st
h
w
Ea
oo
st
G
d
G
la
la
sg
sg
ow
o
w
G
W
re
es
at
tE
er
nd
Sh
aw
la
nd
s
0
Community
At a postcode sector level, the variation in the proportions of the population who are
from minority ethnic groups in each area across the West of Scotland is large (Figure
3.22). In some postcode sectors, less than five people were recorded as coming from
an ethnic minority, while in Glasgow minority ethnic groups are concentrated
particularly in areas of the West End, Springburn and parts of the south side of
Glasgow.
Figure 3.22
% of population who are from an ethnic minority group, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
40
37.6
35
28.1
30
26.4
25
22.2
23.3
24.4
17.7
13.2
15
14.9
10
5
2.0
<5
<5
<5
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
d
H
ow
w
oo
d
Sp
rin
gs
id
e
St
ew
ar
to
n
St
ev
en
st
Ki
o
n
lb
irn
ie
So
ut
O
h
ld
Bi
M
sh
on
o
kl
pt
an
on
d;
Pa
Ki
tn
r
k
a;
w
oo
D
al
d
m
N
el
ew
lin
gt
m
on
ills
..
;G
re
en
ho
lm
Vi
ew
pa
rk
G
ov
an
hi
ll
N
C
ow
la
Ki
irs
Po
nn
rt
in
D
g
un
Pa
da
rk
Pa
s;
N
rk
W
C
oo
irc
dl
us
a
;W
nd
s
oo
dl
C
an
ro
ds
ss
Po
;C
hi
llo
ll
ow
ks
hi
ca
el
dd
ds
en
;B
s
el
la
ho
us
Ki
to
nn
n
in
g
Pa
rk
S
D
um
br
ec
k
St
ra
th
bu
ng
o
0
Sc
ot
la
n
%
20.4
20
Postcode sector
58
Glasgow’s asylum seeker and refugee population
It is worth noting also that the number of asylum seekers and refugees living in
Glasgow has risen rapidly in recent years with the total number standing at 12,500 in
December 2004 5 . Currently children from asylum seeking and refugee families make
up approximately 6% of the city’s under-five population.
3.7 Births
The previous chapter commented on the long-term downward trend in the city’s birth
rate. In this section we examine the variation in birth rates across West of Scotland
communities (Figure 3.23). In Scotland over the period 2000-2002, the birth rate was
4.8 per 100 women aged 15-44, while across the West of Scotland communities the
birth rate varied from 3.6% in Glasgow West End to 5.9% in Greater Shawlands.
Figure 3.23
Birth rates per 100 females aged 15-44 years, 2000-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from GROS data)
Birth rates per 100 females aged 15-44 years
7
5.9
6
5
4.8
4.1
4
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.4
3.6
3
2
1
Br
id
G
Sc
la
sg
ot
ow
la
nd
ge
W
to
es
n
An
tE
&
D
ni
nd
en
es
ni
la
st
nd
ou
St
/B
n
ra
ea
th
rs
ke
de
lv
n/
i
n
M
iln
ga
vi
e
Lo
m
Ea
on
d
st
Ki
lb
rid
In
e
ve
So
rc
ly
ut
de
h
Ay
rs
hi
C
re
ly
de
sd
Ea
a
st
le
Ea
Ay
st
rs
er
hi
re
n
G
Pa
la
is
N
sg
le
or
ow
C
am y an th A
d
yr
bu
Le
sh
sl
ire
ve
an
rn
g
an
Va
d
So
lle
R
y
ut
ut
h
he
M
W
rg
ar
es
le
yh
n
t
G
ill/
la
W
sg
oo
ow
ds
H
id
am
e
&
ilt
R
S
on
N
en
ou
G
fre
th
l
w
Ea asg
&
ow
st
W
G
es
C
ly
t R las
de
go
en
ba
w
fre
nk
w
&
sh
D
ire
ru
m
ch
ap
Ai
el
rd
W
rie
i
s
&
ha
C
w
oa
tb
r
C
um idg
e
be
rn
au
M
ld
ot
he
rw
el
G
E
l
re
as
at
tw
er
Sh ood
aw
la
nd
s
0
Community
At a postcode sector level, not surprisingly, the variation in birth rates is far greater
(Figure 3.24). The lowest birth rates occur in parts of the West End and in the
Townhead and City Centre areas.
59
Figure 3.24
Birth rates per 100 females aged 15-44 years, 2000-2002,
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHS HS - Community Health Profiles (from GROS data)
Birth rates per 100 females aged 15-44 years
9
7.7
8
6.6
7
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.8
7.0
7.8
7.2
6
4.8
5
4
3
2.4
2
1.2
1.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
1.7
1
Sc
ot
la
nd
To
w
nh
ea
d
C
i ty
C
en
tre
Hi
llh
ea
Po
d
Ke
rt
D
lv
un
in
gr
da
ov
s;
e
W
oo
dl
an
ds
M
ea
do
w
si
de
W
oo
ds
id
e
Yo
rk
hi
ll
Pa
rti
ck
hi
ll
Al
to
Ke
nh
lv
ill;
in
Kn
N
oc
ki
nl
aw
C
..
as
tle
m
ilk
E
Br
id
ge
to
n
E
Pa
rk
he
ad
N
D
al
m
ar
no
ck
St
ra
th
bu
ng
o
So
H
ow
ut
hc
Po
w
oo
ra
llo
ig
d
ks
s;
hi
C
Fe
el
um
ds
nw
be
;B
ic
k
rn
el
au
la
ho
ld
us
Vi
to
lla
n
ge
;D
ul
la
tu
r
0
Postcode sector
The reasons for this require further study, but the affordability of housing for young
families and the type of housing available in these areas – much of which is designed
for, or at least more attractive to, single people or couples without children – is likely
to be important. The areas with the highest birth rates are quite mixed, including parts
of the East of Glasgow (Bridgeton E, Parkhead N, Dalmarnock), the Southside
(Strathbungo, Pollokshields & Bellahouston) and areas outside Glasgow that are
within easy commuting distance (Howwood, Cumbernauld Village).
3.8 Deaths
Infant deaths
In the previous chapter the large fall in infant mortality rates over the last 150 years
was noted. In this section we examine the variation in infant death rates across the
West of Scotland. The rate of infant deaths across West of Scotland communities in
the period 1999-2002 varied quite markedly from 3.5 (per 1,000 live births) in
Motherwell to 10.1 in Bridgeton & Dennistoun (Figure 3.25). Although the actual
numbers of deaths underlying these rates are low, because infant deaths are so
relatively rare now, some of the differences between communities may be worthy of
further investigation.
60
Figure 3.25
Infant deaths per 1000 live births, 1999-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow Communities
Source: NHSHS Community profiles (from GROS data)
12.0
10.1
% of all household spaces
10.0
9.0
8.0
8.0
6.0
5.3
3.5
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.7
7.1
8.2
7.1
2.0
So
M
Sc
ot
la
ot n d
he
rw
ut
el
H
h
l
An
a
W
ni
es milt
G
es
t G on
re
la
at
nd
la
/B er S sg
o
ea
rs haw w
de
l
n/ and
M
Ea
iln s
st
ga
er
vi
n
e
G
la
St sgo
ra
w
th
ke
lv
in
C
am
Ai
gl
rd
en
E
rie
as
tw
&
o
C
oa od
tb
rid
g
W e
Ea ish
a
Pa
st
w
Ki
is
R
lb
en ley
fre
an Cly ride
de
w
d
L
&
s
W eve da
le
es
rn
tR
Va
en
lle
fre
y
w
C
u m sh
be ire
rn
au
Lo ld
N
m
or
on
th
Ay d
rs
In hire
C
ve
ly
de
rc
E
ly
ba
a
nk st A de
yr
&
s
D
G
ru hire
la
m
sg
ch
So ow
a
ut
W pel
M
h
es
ar
E
t
yh
as
E
ill/
t G nd
W
la
oo So
sg
u
ds
t
ow
id h A
Br
e
y
id
g e & N rsh
ire
to
G
n
la
&
sg
D
en ow
ni
st
ou
n
0.0
Community
Deaths
Across the West of Scotland there was a two-fold variation in death rates in 20002002 (see Figure 3.26), ranging from 428 and 454 per 100,000 in Anniesland,
Bearsden & Milngavie and Eastwood, respectively, to more than double these rates in
Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow (897 per 100,000) and Bridgeton &
Dennistoun (965 per 100,000). From this it is clear that Greater Glasgow not only has
the communities with the highest mortality rates in Scotland, but also those with the
lowest mortality.
Figure 3.26
Death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised, 2000-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from GROS data)
Age standardised death rate per 100,000
1200
965
1000
800
600
428
400
200
An
ni
e
sl
a
nd
/
Be
Sc
ar
sd
ot
en
la
nd
/M
iln
ga
v
ie
Ea
st
Ea wo
od
st
Ki
lb
rid
St
e
ra
th
ke
lv
C
in
ly
S o des
R
da
ut
en
l
h
fre
Ay e
w
r
C
sh
&
u
ire
m
W
b
es
t R ern
au
en
fre ld
w
sh
ir
Lo e
N
m
or
o
n
th
Ay d
rs
Ea
hi
G
s
re
tA
re
at
yr
er
sh
C
S
am
ha ire
bu
w
la
sl
nd
an
s
g
H
a
an
m
d
ilt
R
on
G
ut
la
he
sg
rg
So ow
le
W
n
ut
es
h
Ea
tE
st
nd
G
la
sg
ow
C
W
ly
is
de
h
ba
aw
M
ot
nk
he
&
rw
D
el
ru
l
m
ch
ap
Ai
In
el
rd
Pa
ve
rie
is
rc
&
le
ly
y
an Coa de
d
tb
Le
r
ve idge
Ea
rn
M
Va
st
ar
er
So
lle
yh
n
u
y
ill/
G
W th W
la
oo
es sgo
ds
w
tG
i
de
Br
la
sg
id
&
ge
ow
N
to
G
n
la
sg
&
D
o
w
en
ni
st
ou
n
0
Community
61
At a postcode sector level the differences are magnified further with three- to fourfold variations in mortality between the ten areas of lowest mortality and the ten of
highest mortality. Of the twenty areas in this analysis of extremes, only three lie
outside Greater Glasgow, emphasising the huge polarity in health that exists across
the city and often between adjacent areas. In the five areas with the highest mortality
rates, it is double the Scottish average.
Figure 3.27
Death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised, 2000-2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from GROS data)
Age standardised death rate per 100,000
1600
1475
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
350
200
al
to
n
C
S
k
D
al
m
ar
no
ck
hi
ll
Pa
r
ilt
on
in
g
Ki
nn
uc
hi
ll
R
am
H
Ib
ro
x
Pa
rk
he
ad
N
Fu
lla
rto
Fe
n
rg
us
lie
Pa
rk
To
w
nh
ea
d
Sc
ot
la
nd
Be
Ki
ar
lm
sd
ac
en
ol
m
-K
es
si
ng
to
n
C
la
rk
st
on
C
ar
M
iln
m
un
ga
no
vi
e
ck
-K
ey
C
st
at
on
hc
e;
ar
t
D
ou
M
ga
iln
l
st
ga
o
vi
n
e
-B
ar
lo
ch
H
C
ou
ro
ftf
s
to
oo
n
t;
Li
nn
Pa
rk
Ea
gl
es
ha
m
0
Postcode sector
Death trends
Despite Glasgow’s well-recorded poor health status, the trend in mortality for those
aged 15-74 is favourable for both males and females, as Figures 3.28 and 3.29 show.
The key issue, however, is that Glasgow’s mortality rate is not reducing at the same
rate as Scotland’s, and the excess mortality in Glasgow compared to Scotland has
actually increased over the last 30 years among men and women.
62
Figure 3.28
Male death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised, aged 15-74 years,
1974-2003, NHS Greater Glasgow
Source: calculated from GROS deaths data
1600
1400
Rate per 100,00 population per year
Greater Glasgow
Scotland
1200
1000
800
600
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
400
Figure 3.29
Female death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised,
aged 15-74 years, 1974-2003, NHS Greater Glasgow
Source: calculated from GROS deaths data
1000
900
Greater Glasgow
Scotland
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
Rate per 100,00 population per year
800
63
Figure 3.30, which displays the mortality trend for communities within Greater
Glasgow over the last ten years, highlights the varied health trends within the region
over this period. Across Scotland there was a 15% reduction in mortality between
1991/93 and 2000/02. However, while the mortality reductions in some parts of
Greater Glasgow exceed this (-21% in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie), in other
communities the reductions have been very modest (-4% in Maryhill, Woodside &
North Glasgow; -1% in Bridgeton & Dennistoun). It is also clear from the graph that,
because of these differential reductions in mortality, the mortality gap between the
communities with the highest and lowest mortality has increased.ix
Figure 3.30
Death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised, 1991/93 - 2000/02
Greater Glasgow Communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from GROS deaths data)
Age Standardised Mortality Rate per 100,000 population
1,100
Bridgeton & Dennistoun
1,000
Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow
South West Glasgow
900
Eastern Glasgow
Clydebank & Drumchapel
800
South East Glasgow
Glasgow West End
700
Cambuslang and Rutherglen
600
Greater Shawlands
Scotland
500
Strathkelvin
Eastwood
400
Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie
1991 - 1993
1994 - 1996
1997 - 1999
2000 - 2002
3.9 Life expectancy
In this section we examine recent trends and patterns in life expectancy in the West of
Scotland (at a council, community and postcode sector level), trends in life
expectancy by deprivation and patterns of healthy life expectancy.
Life expectancy at a council level
Male life expectancy at birth in Glasgow was most recently calculated as 69.1 years 6
(see Figure 3.31), four years less than the Scottish average and eight years short of the
life expectancy in East Dunbartonshire (77.2 years).
ix
Note that there are major differences in the definitions and calculation methods relating to the figures
presented in Figures 3.28 and 3.29, and those in 3.30. Thus, the rates in the two sets of graphs are not
directly comparable. All definitions are included in Appendix 1.
64
Figure 3.31
Male life expectancy at birth, 2001-2003,
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Office for National Statistics
78
77.2
76.0
Life Expectancy at birth (years)
76
74.0
74
74.0
73.5
72.7
72.5
71.9
72
71.9
70.8
70.2
70
69.1
68
66
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
en
fre
w
sh
ire
Ea
st
D
R
Ea
st
La
na
rk
sh
ire
So
ut
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
So
ut
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
N
or
th
Ea
st
Ay
rs
hi
re
sh
ire
en
fre
w
R
La
na
rk
sh
ire
N
or
th
W
es
t
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
In
ve
rc
ly
de
G
la
sg
ow
Sc
ot
la
nd
C
ity
64
Council
Trends in male life expectancy for West of Scotland councils from 1991-93 onwards
have been upward in every council, although the rise has been steeper in some areas
than others (Figure 3.32). There was a rise of 3.2 years in male life expectancy in
East Dunbartonshire compared to a more modest rise of 0.9 years in Glasgow and 0.6
years in Inverclyde over the ten years to 2001-03.
Figure 3.32
Male life expectancy at birth, 1991-1993 to 2001-2003,
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Office for National Statistics
78
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
76
Life Expectancy at birth (years)
South Lanarkshire
South Ayrshire
74
Scotland
North Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
72
Renfrewshire
North Lanarkshire
West Dunbartonshire
70
Inverclyde
Glasgow City
68
66
1991-1993 1992-1994 1993-1995 1994-1996 1995-1997 1996-1998 1997-1999 1998-2000 1999-2001 2000-2002 2001-2003
65
Female life expectancy varies from 76.4 years in Glasgow (two and a half years less
than for Scotland) to 81.1 years in East Renfrewshire (Figure 3.33). This represents a
four and a half year gap but is much less than the eight year variation in male life
expectancy that occurs across the West of Scotland at a council level.
Figure 3.33
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (years), 2001- 2003
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Office for National Statistics
82.0
81.1
Life Expectancy at birth (years)
81.0
80.5
80.0
79.3
78.9
79.0
78.5
78.0
77.4
78.5
78.1
78.0
77.8
77.4
77.0
76.4
76.0
75.0
re
w
sh
ire
Ea
st
R
en
f
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
Ay
rs
hi
re
Ea
st
So
ut
h
La
na
rk
sh
ir e
So
ut
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
N
or
th
R
en
fre
w
sh
ir e
re
Ay
rs
hi
Ea
st
yd
e
In
ve
rc
l
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
W
es
t
La
na
rk
sh
ir e
N
or
th
la
sg
ow
G
Sc
ot
la
nd
C
ity
74.0
Council
The trends in female life expectancy have been upward overall over the ten year
period from 1991-93 to 2001-03 but, while there was a rise in life expectancy for
women in Inverclyde of 2.3 years over the period, the rise in West Dunbartonshire
was only 0.3 years (Figure 3.34).
Figure 3.34
Female life expectancy at birth, 1991-1993 to 2001-2003
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Office for National Statistics
82
East Renfrewshire
81
East Dunbartonshire
South Ayrshire
Life Expectancy at birth (years)
80
Scotland
North Ayrshire
79
South Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
78
East Ayrshire
Inverclyde
77
North Lanarkshire
West Dunbartonshire
Glasgow City
76
75
74
1991-1993 1992-1994 1993-1995 1994-1996 1995-1997 1996-1998 1997-1999 1998-2000 1999-2001 2000-2002 2001-2003
66
Male life expectancy at community and postcode sector level
The life expectancy graphs to a great extent mirror the death rate patterns, but add
extra information on gender related health inequalities. For men, the life expectancy
differences at a community level across the West of Scotland are large (Figure 3.35).
In Bridgeton & Dennistoun life expectancy for a man at birth was estimated to be less
than 64 years (in 1998-2002). Glasgow communities occupy the first six positions in
order of lowest male life expectancy across the West of Scotland. At the other end of
the spectrum three communities in Greater Glasgow have the highest male life
expectancy within the West of Scotland – Strathkelvin, Anniesland, Bearsden &
Milngavie and Eastwood. The 15 year gap in male life expectancy between Bridgeton
& Dennistoun and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie highlights the differences in
life circumstances, lifestyles and life chances that exist in the city.
Figure 3.35
Male life expectancy at birth,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities, 1998-2002
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles
Estimated Life Expectancy at birth
80
75
78.7
73.3
70
65
63.5
60
M
Br
ar
yh idg
et
ill/
Sc
on
W
ot
oo
&
la
D
ds
n
e
id
nn d
e
is
&
So
to
N
u
ut
n
G
h
la
W
sg
es
ow
t
C
E
G
ly
de aste las
go
ba
r
w
nk n G
la
&
sg
So
D
ow
ru
ut
m
h
Ea cha
st
pe
Pa
G
l
la
is
sg
le
y
ow
In
an
ve
d
rc
Le
ve lyd
G
e
la
r
n
sg
V
ow
al
le
W
es y
tE
Ai
n
rd
rie
W d
i
sh
&
C
aw
oa
tb
rid
G
M
ge
C
ot
a m r ea
he
te
bu
rw
r
Sh
sl
e
an
aw ll
g
la
&
nd
R
ut
s
he
R
rg
en
le
fre
n
Lo
w
N
m
&
or
on
W
t
d
es h A
yr
tR
en shir
e
fre
w
sh
ire
H
a
Ea mi
l to
st
Ay n
rs
C
um
hi
be re
rn
au
C
ld
ly
So d e s
da
ut
h
Ay le
Ea rsh
ire
st
Ki
An
l
ni
St brid
es
r
e
at
la
hk
nd
el
/B
ea
Ea vin
rs
de stw
oo
n/
M
d
iln
ga
vi
e
55
Community
At a postcode sector level the differences in life expectancy widen further (see Figure
3.36), although it should be borne in mind that estimates for these areas, which have
populations of 3,000-5,000 on average, have wide confidence limits. In three
postcode sectors male life expectancy is actually estimated to be less than 60 years,
while in the sectors with the highest life expectancy, it is estimated that men will live
for 20 years longer.
67
Figure 3.36
Male life expectancy (LE) at birth, 1998-2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest LE and 10 with lowest LE
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles
Estimated Life Expectancy at birth
90
79.3
80
79.4
79.6
79.7
79.9
79.9
80.9
81.1
81.7
82.6
73.3
70
60
58.0
53.9
59.9
61.9
61.4
60.2
62.2
62.5
62.9
63.1
50
40
30
20
10
hi
Pa
ll
rk
he
ad
S
;G
or
ba
ls
Yo
D
r
r
k
um
Be
hi
ll
ar
ch
sd
ap
en
el
N
-K
E
ilm
Be
ar
Bi
di
ar
s
n
sd
ho
ny
en
pb
rig
-C
gs
as
W
tle
hi
ll;
Th
or
W
n
em
ys
s
Ba
y
H
ou
st
on
Ki
lm
ac
ol
Be
m
ar
C
la
sd
rk
en
st
on
-K
es
si
ng
to
n
M
Le
iln
nz
ga
ie
vi
N
e
-B
ar
lo
ch
Tr
ad
es
to
n
E
to
n
id
ge
Br
R
uc
ill
d
on
h
am
ilt
H
ck
no
nh
ea
To
w
to
n
D
al
m
ar
C
al
Sc
ot
la
nd
0
Postcode sector
From life expectancy data it is also possible to estimate the likelihood of a 15 year old
boy reaching his 65th birthday. This is again an estimate with wide confidence
intervals but re-emphasises the differences in health across Greater Glasgow (Figure
3.37). In Bridgeton & Dennistoun, it is estimated that just 53% of 15 year old boys
will reach their 65th birthday, while in Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden &
Milngavie the estimates are that at least 87% are likely to reach this age.
Figure 3.37
Percentage of 15 year old boys likely to reach their 65th birthday, 1998-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles
100%
90%
80%
87%
79%
%
74% 74% 74% 75%
70% 70%
69% 70%
70%
78% 78% 78%
77% 77%
88%
82% 82%
80% 81% 81% 81%
72% 72%
66%
60%
60%
53%
M
Br
ar
yh idge
ill/
to
Sc
W
n
ot
&
oo
la
D
ds
en nd
id
ni
e
st
&
So
ou
N
ut
n
G
h
la
W
s
es
go
w
Ea t G
la
st
sg
er
ow
n
C
G
ly
la
de
sg
ba
ow
nk Inv
er
&
cl
So
D
y
de
ru
ut
Pa
m
h
is
Ea cha
le
y
s
p
tG
el
an
d
l
Le asg
ow
ve
G
la
sg rn V
ow
al
Ai
le
rd
W
rie
es y
tE
&
G
C
re
o a nd
at
er tbri
Sh d g
aw e
la
n
M
C
ot ds
am
he
bu
rw
sl
e
an
W ll
g
is
&
ha
R
w
ut
he
R
rg
en
l
e
fre
Lo n
w
N
m
&
or
on
W
th
es
Ay d
tR
rs
h
en
fre ire
w
sh
ire
H
am
C
um ilto
n
be
rn
au
C
ld
ly
d
Ea esd
al
st
Ay e
So
rs
ut
hi
r
h
Ay e
Ea rsh
i
re
st
Ki
An
l
ni
St brid
es
r
e
at
la
hk
nd
el
/B
v
ea
in
Ea
rs
de stw
oo
n/
M
d
iln
ga
vi
e
50%
Community
68
Female life expectancy at community and postcode sector level
While female life expectancy is higher than for men, the differences between
communities are still marked, although with much less variation (Figure 3.38). The
gap between the communities with the lowest female life expectancy (Maryhill,
Woodside & North Glasgow and Bridgeton & Dennistoun) and those with the highest
(Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie and Eastwood) is seven to eight years.
Figure 3.38
Female life expectancy at birth, 1998-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles
85
82.2
Estimated Life Expectancy at birth
81.4
80
79.8
78.7
77.2 77.3 77.3 77.3 77.4 77.5 77.5 77.5
76.8 76.8 77.1 77.1
75
74.1 74.4
75.2
80.2
78.7 78.9 78.9
78.2 78.3 78.5
75.9
70
M
ar
yh
ill/
W
oo
ds
Sc
Br ide
o
id
ge & N tlan
to
d
G
n
la
So &
sg
D
ut
e n ow
h
n
W
es isto
t G un
C
E
ly
la
de ast
ba ern sgo
w
nk
G
la
&
s
D
ru gow
Pa
m
is
ch
le
ap
y
C
el
am and
W
bu
is
Le
ha
sl
v
e
an
w
rn
g
Va
&
l
R
ut ley
he
rg
l
H en
am
ilt
G
M
o
la
s g oth n
ow erw
G
e
W
re
at
es l l
Ai e r S t E
rd
nd
h
rie
aw
So & C lan
ut
oa d s
h
Ea tbr
id
st
G ge
Ea lasg
o
st
Ay w
rs
h
i
In
ve re
N
or rcly
th
de
Ay
R
rs
en
hi
fr e
r
Lo e
w
C
m
&
um
on
W
d
es
be
tR
rn
au
en
l
fr e
d
w
sh
C
ire
ly
d
So
es
da
ut
h
Ay l e
An
rs
ni
S
es
tra hire
la
th
nd
ke
E
/B
lv
ea as
in
t
rs
de Kilb
rid
n/
M
iln e
ga
Ea vie
st
w
oo
d
65
Community
At a postcode sector level, the gap between areas with the lowest and highest female
life expectancy is wider, around 14 to 15 years (see Figure 3.39). The areas of highest
female life expectancy are quite geographically spread and most are affluent. In
contrast, the areas of low female life expectancy are all areas of long-standing
deprivation and the majority are in Glasgow. However, it is worth noting that these
estimates of life expectancy for small areas have wide confidence intervals.
69
Figure 3.39
Female life expectancy (LE) at birth, 1998-2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest LE and 10 with lowest LE
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles
Estimated Life Expectancy at birth
90
80
83.2
83.3
83.6
83.9
83.9
84.0
84.1
84.2
84.3
84.4
78.7
70.5
69.9
69.2
68.8
70
70.5
71.7
71.0
70.7
71.7
71.7
60
50
40
30
20
10
se
ar
as
ra
H
si
ol
;R
e
y
od
Is
la
d
in
nd
gh
;I
ill
sl
e
of
Ar
ra
n
Ki
lm
ac
ol
m
C
To
at
rra
hc
nc
ar
t
e;
Ba
lm
or
e
C
la
rk
st
on
Be
Ea
ar
gl
sd
es
en
G
ha
le
-K
m
ns
es
id
si
e;
n
Fa
gt
on
irl
ie
;K
el
bu
rn
ou
;D
rli
e
ou
on
;S
Pe
rc
et
Tr
o
on
-
M
ui
rh
ea
d;
Lo
an
s
;B
on
Pa
rk
ho
u
E
us
e
R
oy
st
rh
o
ga
d;
st
e
Ea
G
ar
n
x
Pa
rk
Ib
ro
Fe
rg
u
sl
ie
W
us
e
rh
o
st
e
R
uc
hi
ll
ck
ill
Ea
D
al
m
ar
no
n
nh
ilt
o
lla
rto
H
am
Fu
Sc
ot
la
nd
0
Postcode sector
From the life expectancy calculation it is also possible to estimate the likelihood of a
fifteen year old girl reaching her 65th birthday. This is an estimate with wide
confidence intervals but again re-emphasises the differences in health across the city.
In Bridgeton & Dennistoun, it is estimated that 79% of 15 year old girls will reach
their 65th birthday, while in Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie the
estimates are that at least 92% are likely to reach this age (Figure 3.40).
Figure 3.40
Percentage of 15 year old girls likely to reach their 65th birthday, 1998-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles
100%
90%
79% 79%
81% 81%
84% 84% 84% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%
83% 84% 84%
88% 88% 89% 89%
87% 87% 87%
90%
92% 92%
%
80%
87%
70%
60%
M
ar
Br
yh idge
ill/
to
Sc
W
n
ot
&
oo
la
D
ds
e n nd
id
ni
e
st
&
So
ou
N
ut
n
G
h
la
W
s
es
g
t G ow
C
E
ly
de aste las
go
ba
r
w
nk n G
la
&
s
go
D
ru
w
m
ch
ap
S
el
Pa out
W
h
is
Ea
is
le
ha
y
s
C
w
a m a n d t Gl
a
Le
bu
sg
ve
ow
sl
an
rn
g
Va
&
l
G
R
re
ut ley
he
at
er
rg
le
G
Sh
la
aw n
sg
la
ow
Ai
nd
rd
W
s
rie
es
tE
&
C
o a nd
tb
r
M idge
ot
he
rw
el
H
am l
ilt
o
In
ve n
R
Ea rcl
en
yd
st
fr e
Ay e
w
N
r
&
s
or
hi
W
t
es h A re
yr
tR
s
h
en
fre ire
w
sh
ir
Lo e
m
C
on
um
d
b
So ern
au
ut
h
l
Ay d
rs
hi
St
re
ra
th
ke
lv
C
i
ly
de n
An
Ea sda
ni
es
s
t K le
la
nd
ilb
/B
r
ea
Ea ide
rs
s
tw
de
o
n/
od
M
iln
ga
vi
e
50%
Community
70
Life expectancy by deprivation
As part of our analysis of life expectancy we examined trends in life expectancy in
relation to deprivation. Two analyses were designed to examine the gap in life
expectancy between the most and least deprived communities in Greater Glasgow (as
measured by Carstairs deprivation x quintile) between 1981 and 2001.
The first analysis set out to measure differences in life expectancy by defining the
postcode sectors in Greater Glasgow’s most and least deprived quintiles in 1981 and
using the same sets of sectors to represent the most and least deprived quintiles from
1981 through to 2001. The second analysis assigned postcode sectors in Greater
Glasgow to the most and least deprived quintiles as measured at each Census from
1981, 1991 and 2001. Thus, while in the first analysis areas (postcode sectors) in each
quintile remained fixed, in the second new areas could appear in the most and least
deprived quintiles. In fact the two analyses produced very similar results and for this
reason the following description describes the results of only one of the approaches
(the first analysis) in depth.
Two features of this analysis are important: the trends in life expectancy by
deprivation quintile and sex, and the change in the gap in life expectancy between the
most and least deprived quintiles. A third trend, which underlies the approach taken,
is the change in population of each quintile over time, remembering that the same
postcode sectors remain in each quintile between 1981 and 2001.
In summary the most notable trends for males (see Figure 3.41) are that:
x
x
x
Male life expectancy in the most affluent quintile in Greater Glasgow was nearly
three years better than the Scottish figure in 1981 and has remained in this
position over the last 20 years, having risen in parallel to the Scottish trend.
Males in the most affluent parts of Greater Glasgow can now expect to live to
over 76 years, while in Scotland as a whole men can expect to live to just over 73
years.
By contrast, in the most deprived quintile, life expectancy is estimated to have
dropped slightly in the last 20 years from 65.3 years to 64.4 years.
As a result of these opposing trends, the gap in life expectancy for men in Greater
Glasgow has widened from 6.9 years to 11.8 years. In other words, the gap in male
life expectancy between the most and least affluent parts of Greater Glasgow has
widened by five years over a twenty year period.
x
Carstairs deprivation scores were originally developed by Vera Carstairs and Russell Morris. See the
MRC Social and Public Health Sciences Unit website for more details:
http://www.msoc-mrc.gla.ac.uk/Publications/pub/Carstairs_MAIN.html.
71
Figure 3.41
Estimates of male life expectancy, least and most deprived Carstairs quintiles, 1981/85 1998/2002 (areas fixed to their deprivation quintile in 1981)
Greater Glasgow
Source: calculated from GROS death registrations and Census data (1981, 1991, 2001)
85
Males -Dep Quin 1 (least deprived)
Males - Dep Quin 5 (most deprived)
Scotland Males
Estimated life expectancy at birth
80
76.2
75
73.9
73.3
72.2
71.2
70
69.4
65.3
64.8
64.4
1988-1992
1998-2002
65
60
1981-1985
The trends in life expectancy for women are similar (see Figure 3.42) but not as
pronounced. Life expectancy for women in the most affluent quintile has risen (by
approximately three years) and remains higher than for Scotland as a whole, but the
difference from the Scottish average has narrowed slightly. Life expectancy of women
in the most deprived quintile has improved but only by one year over a twenty year
period, and so the gap in life expectancy between women in the most and least
deprived communities of Greater Glasgow has widened from 5.5 to 7.5 years.
Figure 3.42
Estimates of Female Life Expectancy, least and most deprived Carstairs quintiles,
1981/85 - 1998/2002 (areas fixed to their deprivation quintile in 1981)
Greater Glasgow
Source: calculated from GROS death registrations and Census data (1981, 1991, 2001)
85
Females - Dep Quin 1 (least deprived)
Females - Dep Quin 5 (most deprived)
Scotland Females
79.6
Estimated life expectancy at birth
80
77.8
78.7
76.5
77.0
75
74.9
71.1
71.6
72.1
70
65
60
1981-1985
1988-1992
1998-2002
72
Over twenty years the change in the populations of each quintile – whose areas were
fixed to their 1981 positions – is both dramatic and contrasting. The population of the
most deprived quintile was 203,677 in 1981, dropped to 150,821 in 1991 and then
reduced further to 120,240 in 2001. This represents an overall drop of over 83,000 or
41% in the 20 year period. In contrast, the population of the most affluent quintile
increased slightly over the period from 194,239 to 207,571, a rise of over 13,000 or
7%. Another way of describing this change is to note that, while in 1981 the
population of each quintile, by definition, accounted for 20% of the population of the
region, by 2001 the population of the most deprived areas (as defined in 1981)
represented only 14% of the Greater Glasgow population and the population of the
most affluent areas had risen to 24% of the total.
These trends are open to a number of interpretations. However, it is safe to say that
the population trends do reinforce the often-noted observation that the population of
many of the deprived parts of Glasgow has dropped significantly. This pattern may
also partly explain the worsening life expectancy trends of males in deprived areas if
it is believed that those who left were generally in better health, with better education
and better employment prospects.
Healthy life expectancy
Healthy life expectancy is the best estimate of years of life without a limiting longterm illness. Figures recently published by ISD Scotland 7 show that across the West
of Scotland there is almost a twelve year gap in male healthy life expectancy between
Glasgow (46.7 years) and East Renfrewshire (58.5 years) (see Figure 3.43) xi . The
average number of years of life lived with a limiting long-term illness varies between
17 and 25 years among the West of Scotland councils.
Figure 3.43
Estimated healthy life expectancy at birth and years of life with a limiting long-term Illness
Males, West of Scotland council areas
Source: ISD Scotland (based on 1999 & 2000 Scottish Household Surveys data, population estimates & deaths)
90
Years of life with a limiting longterm illness
80
Healthy life expectancy at birth
70
19.2
Years
60
21.8
25.8
24.9
22.5
19.6
46.8
46.8
48.3
50.5
20.2
17.8
52.6
53.2
20.8
19.2
53.6
53.8
19.7
17.6
56.5
58.5
50
40
30
53.8
46.7
20
10
w
sh
ire
Ea
st
R
en
fre
un
b
ar
to
ns
hi
re
rk
sh
ire
Ea
st
D
La
na
Ay
rs
hi
re
So
ut
h
So
ut
h
fre
w
sh
ire
R
en
Ay
rs
hi
re
N
or
th
In
ve
rc
ly
de
La
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sh
W
ire
es
tD
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hi
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or
th
N
Ea
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Ay
rs
hi
re
ity
C
w
G
la
sg
o
Sc
ot
la
nd
0
Council
xi
Note that the blue part of each column shows years of 'healthy life expectancy' (HLE), while the
maroon section indicates the estimated number of years of life with a limiting long-term illness (LLI).
The overall height of each column indicates overall life expectancy at birth.
73
For women in the West of Scotland, the gap in healthy life expectancy is equally
pronounced (see Figure 3.44): there is an eleven year difference in healthy life
expectancy between North Lanarkshire (50 years) and East Renfrewshire (61 years).
The estimated number of years of life lived with a limiting long-term illness varies
between 20 and 27 years among the West of Scotland councils.
Figure 3.44
Estimated healthy life expectancy at birth and years of life with a limiting long-term Illness
Females, West of Scotland council areas
Source: ISD Scotland (based on 1999 & 2000 Scottish Household Surveys data, population estimates & deaths)
100
Years of life with a limiting longterm illness
90
Healthy life expectancy at birth
80
70
21.6
22.2
20.7
22.1
24.2
21.6
27.5
24.3
22.8
24.3
51.5
52.1
53.0
55.5
55.6
55.6
56.3
57.0
57.8
50.0
21.5
19.7
Years
60
50
40
30
56.9
61.0
20
10
ire
re
en
fr e
w
sh
ns
hi
st
R
Ea
Ea
st
D
R
un
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en
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re
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ire
ire
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or
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N
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La
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C
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la
Sc
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la
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ity
0
Council
The calculation of healthy life expectancy for regions of Scotland is a relatively recent
innovation and reveals important information. First, it is striking how relatively young
people in Scotland are when they are first affected by limiting long-term illness.
Second, although the data are not shown here, there has been little growth in healthy
life expectancy while life expectancy has been rising. The result is that the length of
time that people are living with illness is rising; thus, contributing in turn to the
increasing demands on health and social services.
74
Summary
x
The city of Glasgow, with a population of 577,000, and Greater Glasgow NHS
Board area, with a population of 867,000, are the largest council and NHS Board,
respectively, in Scotland.
x
Glasgow City, compared to other West of Scotland councils, has one of the lowest
proportions of ‘under 16s’ in its population but the highest proportion of people of
‘working age’.
x
In Glasgow, the proportions of men and women of ‘pensionable age’ are
strikingly different: 22% of women compared with 12% of men.
x
Glasgow has a low dependency ratio in comparison to other West of Scotland
councils and to Scotland as a whole. Projections predict an increase in the
dependency ratio for the country as a whole and this is mirrored in most of the
West of Scotland councils with the exception of Glasgow, which is predicted to
maintain an unchanged and relatively low dependency ratio up to 2024. However,
this (theoretically) healthy economic profile does not take account of people of
working age not working or unable to work due to incapacity, of which Glasgow
has a high proportion currently (as outlined in Chapter 10: Health and function).
x
Looking ahead to 2024, many of the West of Scotland councils are expected to
show population decreases. The greatest decreases are predicted for Inverclyde,
which is expected to lose 13.6% of its population between 2004 and 2024, and for
East Dunbartonshire (-10.5%). Glasgow City is set to lose 4.4% of its population,
equating to a reduction of around 25,000 people.
x
In Glasgow, the number of children under 16 is set to reduce by 13,000 or 13% in
the period 2004-2024. Over the same period it is predicted that the population in
the 16-49 age range will reduce by 11% (a reduction of 33,000 people), whereas
the population aged 50-64 is set to grow by 24%. However, unlike the overall
Scottish pattern, the population in older age groups (65 years and above) is
predicted to remain relatively stable, rather than increasing as elsewhere. This, in
part, may reflect the relatively low life expectancy in parts of Glasgow.
x
Despite the prediction of a continuation of falling populations, household numbers
are predicted to rise as single adult households increasingly dominate. It is
predicted they will account for 49% of all households in Glasgow by 2016. Lone
parent households are also predicted to increase and may soon make up almost
one in two of households with children (48% in Glasgow by 2016).
x
Trends in overall death rates are downward, but the rate of this reduction has
varied greatly across Glasgow in the last ten years such that the mortality gap
between the communities with the highest and lowest mortality has widened
noticeably. At a small area level, there are three- to four-fold variations in
mortality between the areas with the lowest and highest mortality.
75
x
Life expectancy trends and local variations mirror the mortality rate patterns:
people are living longer, but across West of Scotland councils there is an eight
year gap in male life expectancy with Glasgow having the lowest life expectancy
(69.1) and East Dunbartonshire (77.2) the highest. Trends over the last ten years
show that the gap in male life expectancy has widened. Female life expectancy,
while better than male life expectancy, displays a gap of around four and a half
years across the West of Scotland councils.
x
Within Greater Glasgow, the polarity in life expectancy is clear: for instance, there
is an estimated 15 year gap in male life expectancy between Bridgeton &
Dennistoun and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie, highlighting the differences
in life circumstances, lifestyles and life chances that exist. The likelihood of a boy
of 15 in Bridgeton & Dennistoun reaching his 65th birthday is little better than one
in two (53%), based on current mortality rates.
x
At a small area (postcode sector) level there is an estimated gap in male life
expectancy of at least 20 years between those areas with highest and lowest life
expectancy, and a 15 year gap for females.
x
Over the last twenty years, the life expectancy at birth of the 20% most affluent
and 20% least affluent communities has diverged markedly, particularly for men.
For example, male life expectancy in the most affluent parts of Greater Glasgow
has risen to over 76 years, compared to just over 73 in Scotland as a whole; while
in the most deprived quintile, life expectancy is estimated to have dropped slightly
in the last 20 years from 65.3 years to 64.4 years. As a result of these opposing
trends, the gap in male life expectancy between the most and least affluent has
widened to nearly 12 years.
x
The trends in life expectancy for women, in relation to deprivation, are similar,
but not as pronounced. The gap in life expectancy between women in the most
and least deprived communities of Greater Glasgow has widened to 7.6 years.
x
There is an 11 to 12 year gap in years of healthy life expectancy across the West
of Scotland, for men and women. It is notable how relatively young people are,
on average, when first affected by limiting long-term illness and how long people
live with a limiting long-term illness, particularly women – estimates vary
between 20-27 years across West of Scotland councils.
In conclusion, it is clear that in comparison to Scotland and the rest of the West of
Scotland, Glasgow is already quite distinct in terms of its population and household
structure. Predictions suggest that these differences may be further accentuated in the
future (e.g. percentages of lone parents, single adults, dependency ratios). It is also
clear that, despite overall reductions in mortality, huge health inequalities remain and
indeed such inequalities appear, on the basis of a number of different mortality and
life expectancy measures, to have widened over the last ten to twenty years.
76
References
1
General Register Office for Scotland, Mid-2004 Population Estimates, Council and
Health Board Areas. 2005
http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/mid-2004-populationestimates/index.html
2
NHS Health Scotland. Community Health and Well-being Profiles. 2004
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/communityprofiles
3
General Register Office for Scotland. Projected Population of Scotland (2004
Based). 2005
http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/popproj/04populationprojections/index.html
4
General Register Office for Scotland. 2002-based Household Projections. 2005
http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/household-estimatesprojections/2002-based-household-projections.html
5
Personal communication from Ann MacDonald, NRCEMH (The National Resource
Centre for Ethnic Minority Health) and Margaret Hanlon, Fernbank Medical Centre
6
Office for National Statistics. Life expectancy at birth by health and local authorities
in the United Kingdom.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Product.asp?vlnk=10860
7
Clark D, McKeon A, Sutton M, Wood R. Healthy life expectancy in Scotland. 2004
http://www.isdscotland.org/isd/info3.jsp?pContentID=2860&p_applic=CCC&p_
77
Glasgow has retained a position within the UK as a major business centre and is rated
second only to London as a retail centre.
The service sector has grown to a position of predominance in Glasgow’s economy,
providing the bulk of the city’s economic output and employment.
There are now more women than men in employment in Glasgow and part-time work
has grown to represent more than a quarter of all jobs.
The number of Glasgow residents in employment has grown in recent years – by more
than 45,000 jobs in the period 1998-2004.
The official unemployment rate and the claimant unemployment rate have both reduced
greatly over the last four to five years.
It is estimated that there are 110,000 adults in Glasgow who are not economically
active, equating to 30% of the working age population.
In 2002, 235,000 adults in the region were defined as ‘employment deprived’ or
workless (54% of the Scottish total), and Glasgow City alone contributed 85,000
people or 19% of the Scottish total.
Income for those in work has risen in recent years, both nationally and in Glasgow.
However income inequalities are widening, with those in the best-paid occupations
having gained more, relatively, and far more, absolutely, in terms of pay.
Across the West of Scotland 19% of the population are estimated to live in ‘income
deprivation’. This figure varies greatly from 8% in East Dunbartonshire and East
Renfrewshire to 28% in Glasgow City – over 160,000 of the city’s population.
Glasgow City has double the national rate of pupils eligible for free school meals
(42%).
House prices have risen hugely in the last ten years and to a level in many areas where
affordability has become a very real issue, especially for those on lower incomes.
There has been an overall trend towards greater numbers of households with access to
a car, but there are large variations in access levels across the West of Scotland and
Glasgow especially.
The proportion of Glasgow’s population in the top two social classes has more than
doubled since 1981 so that in 2001 four out of ten of Glasgow’s population were
classified as either Social Class I or II.
While the city’s middle class has grown and some parts of the city prosper from greater
employment and higher wages, other parts of Glasgow have seen little improvement in
circumstances.
“In 1993, for the first time in Glasgow’s history, there were more women
in jobs than men.”
“The gap in pay between the highest and the lowest paid is widening
nationally and in Glasgow.”
“The proportion of Glasgow’s population in the top two social classes has
more than doubled since 1981 so that in 2001 four out of ten adults in
Glasgow were classified as either Social Class I or II.”
Chapter 4: Economic factors
Summary
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 4: Economic factors
The economy globally, nationally and locally has a major impact on people’s lives
and so it is important to consider the role of economic factors in shaping health at a
population level. Thus, patterns and trends in economic output, social class,
unemployment and income are all relevant to understanding health in Glasgow and
the West of Scotland.
To cover this large and important area we start with a brief overview of Glasgow’s
current business and labour market. This is followed by a more detailed description
of the economic position of Glasgow (and West of Scotland) residents in terms of
unemployment, economic inactivity, income levels, income related benefits, house
prices, some aspects of deprivation and social class.
4.1 Business and labour market overview
The Glasgow Economic Monitor for autumn 2005 1 provides an in-depth description
of the business and economic health of the city. We have summarised a selection of
important trends and indicators drawn from this publication.
Business
x A ranking produced by Scottish Business Monitor (2005) assessed that 113 of
Scotland’s top 500 companies (some 23%) are located in Glasgow.
x
A national retail ranking for 2004 produced by Experian confirmed Glasgow’s
ranking as the most important retail centre in the UK outside London.
x
Glasgow is one of only three UK cities included in a ‘European Cities Monitor’ 2 ,
which ranks the 30 top European cities by their attractiveness as a business
location. While Glasgow has been in this top tier of cities over the past decade, its
ranking as a business location has fallen from 10th in 1990 to 24th in 2004.
Economic output
In 2002 Glasgow accounted for 16.1% of Scotland’s Gross Value Added (GVA), an
indicator of economic output that measures the wealth produced in an area – an
increase from 14.4% in 1995. However, in comparison to ten other UK cities
Glasgow’s ranking in terms of output rate of growth has fallen in recent years.
Sector breakdowns of output highlight the growth of the service sector, which has
grown to represent 82% of total GVA for Glasgow (2002) – a rise from the 1981
position, when services accounted for only 66% of GVA.
Employment
From 1950 to 1991 overall employment fell from 559,000 to 370,000 with over 90%
of the employment loss in manufacturing. However in the five year period to 2001
total employment rose again to a peak of 411,000.
81
Employee jobs (i.e. people who work for a company or organisation, excluding the
self-employed) account for 92-95% of all jobs in Glasgow and grew by 11.7%
between 1998 and 2001 – almost double the Scottish rise. The main sector that
gained jobs was the service sector, which gained some 44,599 jobs and within this the
main gains were in banking, finance and insurance and business services (up 23%),
public administration, education and health (+12.2%) and distribution, hotels and
restaurants (+13.8%).
There are wide variations in employment levels by sector within Glasgow. The graph
below (Figure 4.1), limited to Greater Glasgow constituencies in 1999-2001 3 ,
illustrates this. ‘Public administration, education and health’ is the largest
employment sector nationally representing 27% of those in employment, but in a
number of the Glasgow constituencies the percentage of employees working in this
sector is much higher; in Maryhill, Springburn, Pollok and Anniesland the percentage
of employees working in the sector ranges from 36% to 42%. There are also wide
variations across Glasgow in the proportion of employees working in ‘distribution,
hotels and catering’ and ‘banking, finance and insurance’ – the second and third
largest employing sectors nationally. Manufacturing, which employed 14% of all
employees nationally in 1999-2001, varies widely across Glasgow from being a minor
employer in some parts, (Glasgow Kelvin (4%) and Maryhill (7%)), to being a major
employer in other areas such as Rutherglen (33%) and Shettleston (21%).
Figure 4.1
% of Employees by Industry, Scotland and Greater Glasgow Constituencies, 1999-2001
Source: NHSHS Consitutency Profiles (original source: ABI)
Public administration,education & health
Manufacturing
Other services
Distribution, hotels and restaurants
Construction
Energy and water
Banking, finance and insurance, etc
Transport and communications
Agriculture and fishing
100%
90%
4%
80%
70%
14%
33%
%
60%
14%
9%
12%
7%
18%
15%
34%
13%
19%
26%
16%
27%
24%
20%
19%
21%
22%
27%
26%
19%
26%
26%
28%
20%
27%
16%
23%
10%
13%
23%
20%
39%
41%
9%
12%
23%
30%
10%
11%
23%
8%
36%
29%
9%
9%
14%
21%
17%
50%
40%
13%
17%
24%
42%
An
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Constituency
The latest figures (2001-2003) show a small net loss of jobs across the city. In this
period further jobs were lost in manufacturing (4,600), along with smaller losses in
‘finance and business’, in ‘transport and communications’ and in the ‘distribution,
hotels and restaurants’ sectors. Partially offsetting these losses was a large increase in
public sector jobs (up by nearly 9,000 jobs) and a small rise in construction sector
employment.
In the future it is predicted that there will be further increases in employee jobs as
well as in self-employment. The major rises are expected in business and finance
82
services (26,100 job gain, 2003-2013) and in public services/health/education (8,600
gain).
In 1993, for the first time in Glasgow’s history, there were more women in jobs than
men. By 2003, 51.5% of all jobs in the city were held by women, in contrast to only
45.7% in 1981. Over the same period part-time working increased considerably,
rising from 19.6% of jobs in 1981 to 28.8% in 2003. However, there is a wide
variation between the different sectors in terms of the patterns and trends in part-time
employment, and employment by gender.
The increase in service industries has been accompanied by changes in the
occupational structure of the city (see Table 4.1). Since the 1980s, ‘professional’,
‘technical’ and ‘administrative’ occupations have all increased in contrast to decreases
in ‘skilled trades’, ‘process, plant and machine operatives’ and ‘unskilled manual
workers’.
Table 4.1 Employment in Glasgow by Occupation, 1981, 1991 and 2004
Employment by occupation
1981
1991
Managers & senior officials
11%
13%
Professional
10%
11%
Associate professionals and technical
14%
16%
Administrative and secretarial
15%
16%
Skilled trades
13%
11%
Personal service
5%
5%
Sales and customer service
9%
9%
Process, plant & machine operatives
9%
7%
Unskilled manual
14%
12%
All Occupations
100%
100%
Source: SLIMS/RF
2004
13%
13%
17%
17%
8%
6%
9%
6%
11%
100%
The number of Glasgow residents who are in employment, irrespective of whether
they work within Glasgow or not, has risen in recent years. Compared to 1998, there
were 45,000 more residents in work in 2004, 20,000 more men in work and 25,000
more women. This rise has, in turn, led to a rise in the employment rate (the
proportion of the working age population in employment), which increased from
55.9% in 1998 to 66% in 2004. However, Glasgow’s rate is still considerably below
the rate for Scotland (74.8%) and for Great Britain (74.9%) but the gap halved
(approximately) in the period between 1998 and 2004.
83
4.2 Unemployment, economic inactivity and employment deprivation
Unemployment
The Glasgow FQA i unemployment rate was 7.6% in the period June 2004 - May
2005, representing 20,000 people out of work. This rate is 35% higher than the
Scottish average (5.8%) and 58% above the level for Great Britain (4.8%). However
this position does represent a relative improvement from Glasgow’s position three
years ago, in 2002.
The claimant unemployment rateii is not a proxy for total unemployment or for
overall levels of worklessness because, in terms of unemployment, it represents only a
subset of those who are officially unemployed and, in terms of worklessness, it takes
no account of those too ill to work. However, it does provide a useful comparative
indicator for measuring local trends and patterns in employment deprivation.
As Figure 4.2 demonstrates, the claimant unemployment rate fell by over half
nationally between 1992 and 2004 and this was mirrored by a reduction across the
West of Scotland. However it should be noted that the rate for Inverclyde has risen
again in the most recent years.
Figure 4.2
Unemployment claimant count expressed as percentage of working age population,
West of Scotland council areas, 1992-2004
Source: NOMIS
Glasgow City
14.0
West
Dunbartonshire
Inverclyde
12.0
% of working age population
East Ayrshire
10.0
North Ayrshire
8.0
North Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
6.0
Scotland
4.0
South Lanarkshire
South Ayrshire
2.0
East
Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
0.0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
More recent data from 2004 show that Inverclyde has the highest percentage of
claimants of Job Seekers Allowance (4.8%) across the West of Scotland councils,
followed by Glasgow (4.1%). The lowest rates of claimants are in East Renfrewshire
and East Dunbartonshire.
i
FQA – Four Quarter Average.
Claimant unemployment rate is defined as the proportion of the working age population claiming job
seekers allowance.
ii
84
Data from NHS Health Scotland’s Community Health and Well-being profiles 4
highlights the variation in claimant unemployment rates across the West of Scotland
using the average claimant unemployment rate for 2003. Across the West of Scotland
‘communities’ iii , claimant unemployment rates varied widely from 1.6% in Eastwood
and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie to 6.3% in Maryhill, Woodside & North
Glasgow (Figure 4.3).
Figure 4.3
% of working age population claiming unemployment benefit (12 month average), 2003
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Communtiy Health Profiles (from NOMIS data)
7%
6.3%
6%
5.6% 5.7%
5%
4.7%
3.7% 3.7%
4%
5.2% 5.2%
4.3% 4.4%
3.3%
3.3%
%
4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
3.9% 3.9%
4.9%
3%
2.6% 2.7%
2.9% 2.9% 3.0%
2.2%
2%
1.6% 1.6%
1%
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At a postcode sector level, the variations between the extremes were even greater. In
the ten areas with the lowest rates, the rate varied between 1.2% and 1.3% of the
working age population, while in the ten areas with the highest claimant
unemployment, rates were all above 8% (Figure 4.4). As with other indicators, the
majority of areas at both extremes were in Greater Glasgow, emphasising the polarity
in economic circumstances that exists in the city and surrounding area.
iii
These are primary care-based localities (mainly the old Local Healthcare Cooperative (LHCC) areas
or, in some cases, the new Community Health (Care) Partnerships (CH(C)Ps)) with populations
ranging from 20,000-140,000 people. For further details see ‘Preface to Chapters 2-12’.
85
Figure 4.4
% of working age population claiming unemployment benefit (12 month average), 2003
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from NOMIS data)
14%
11.8%
12%
10%
8.1%
8.5%
8.5%
8.7%
8.7%
8.8%
9.2%
8.8%
8.8%
%
8%
6%
4%
3.3%
2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
G
ov
an
ch
ap
e
lN
W
E
To
w
n
C
en
tre
ru
m
D
ra
nd
ar
bo
u
Ay
r
-H
C
al
to
n
Al
H
am
to
nh
i
lto
ill;
n
hi
Kn
ll
oc
ki
nl
aw
...
.
ck
-C
br
ec
as
Bi
k
tle
sh
hi
op
ll;
Th
br
ig
or
gs
n
N
Le
;C
nz
a
ie
dd
S;
er
Au
ch
in
lo
ch
Ea
gl
es
ha
m
C
la
M
rk
iln
s
ga
to
n
vi
Br
e
oo
-B
m
ar
;K
lo
ir k
ch
hi
Be
ll;
ar
M
sd
ea
en
rn
-K
s
es
si
ng
Ea
to
st
n
er
ho
us
e
Fe
W
rg
us
lie
G
ar
P
ar
ng
k
ad
;R
Tr
oy
ad
st
es
on
to
n;
G
or
ba
ls
iff
no
D
um
G
Be
ar
sd
en
Sc
ot
la
nd
0%
Postcode sector
Economic inactivity
Economic inactivity rates iv across the West of Scotland, as measured at the 2001
Census, were above the Scottish average and particularly high in some Greater
Glasgow communities – above 50% in Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow and in
Bridgeton & Dennistoun (Figure 4.5).
Figure 4.5
% of people (aged 16-74) who are economically inactive, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
60
51
51
50
44
40
35
%
32
32
32
32
33
33
33
35
35
37
37
37
38
38
39
39
39
39
39
41
41
45
41
30
20
10
Sc
ot
la
Ea
nd
st
Ki
lb
An
rid
ni
e
Ea
es
st
la
nd
w
C
R
oo
um
/B
en
d
e
be
fre
ar
rn
sd
w
au
en
&
l
W
/M
d
es
i
t R lnga
v
en
fre ie
w
sh
ire
Lo
m
on
St
d
ra
Pa
th
ke
is
le
lv
C
y
i
n
ly
an
de
d
sd
Le
al
ve
e
rn
Ea Val
le
st
y
Ay
So
rs
hi
ut
r
h
e
Ay
rs
hi
re
H
am
ilt
on
M
ot
C
am
he
N
rw
bu
or
e
th
sl
an
Ay ll
g
rs
&
hi
R
re
ut
he
rg
l
Ai
e
In
n
rd
ve
rie
rc
&
ly
de
C
G
oa
re
tb
at
ri
er
Sh dge
G
la
aw
sg
la
ow
nd
So
s
W
ut
C
e
h
ly
Ea st E
de
nd
st
ba
G
nk
la
&
sg
D
ow
ru
m
ch
ap
el
Ea
W
M
is
st
ha
ar
er
S
yh
ou
n
w
G
ill/
th
la
W
W
sg
oo
es
ow
ds
tG
id
la
e
Br
sg
&
id
ow
N
ge
G
to
la
n
sg
&
ow
D
en
ni
st
ou
n
0
Community
At a sector level this indicator highlights even more clearly the very high levels of
economic inactivity, in particular in parts of the east and north of the city (Figure 4.6).
iv
Please refer to Appendix 1 for a definition of ‘economic inactivity’.
86
Figure 4.6
% of people (aged 16-74) who are economically inactive, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
70
56.9
60
59.1
57.6
57.5
61.5
60.3
59.7
64.2
61.6
66.0
50
40
%
35.0
30
22.8
26.4
25.3
25.1
25.0
25.0
24.8
23.4
23.0
19.4
20
10
To
w
nh
ea
d
Br
id
ge
to
n
E
no
ck
us
hi
ar
m
D
al
Pa
rk
ho
ilt
on
H
am
or
C
e
ll
e
S
ea
Pa
rk
h
C
ar
nt
yn
d
W
n
ilk
al
to
C
as
tl e
O
ba
ch
m
d
ds
el
la
n
at
es
tfi
;W
ys
s
W
em
llo
H
ut
ch
C
um
es
on
be
to
w
n;
G
Ba
th
So
u
H
rn
ls
;
k
Ba
y
ll
en
;F
cr
la
yn
d
w
ic
hi
nd
ai
gs
;D
Er
sk
in
ow
an
e
ric
at
Ki
lp
ld
O
el
H
ld
au
E
k
n
d
st
o
ou
H
ow
w
oo
h;
rg
bu
en
s
H
r
tu
tla
ul
la
D
ge
;
Vi
lla
Sc
o
R
hu
nd
0
Postcode sector
More recent data (restricted to working age adults i.e. males 16-64 and females 16-59
years) for 2003 and 2004 at a council level show that Glasgow City has the highest
levels of economic inactivity in the West of Scotland but that there was a slight
reduction in economic inactivity rates across all the councils between 2003 and 2004
(Figure 4.7). The figure of 30% for Glasgow equates to 110,000 people of working
age.
Figure 4.7
Employment deprivation
% of people economically inactive, West of Scotland council areas, 2003-2004
Source: Annual Scottish Labour Force Survey, SE
35%
2003
30% 30%
30%
2004
27%
27%
% Economically Inactive
25%
25%
22%
22%
21% 21%
21%
20%
27%
25%
25%
24% 24%
24%
24%
22% 22%
21%
18%
18%
17%
17%
15%
10%
5%
ire
de
rk
sh
cl
y
N
or
th
La
na
In
ve
r
sh
i re
Ea
st
rto
un
ba
Ay
r
hi
re
ns
rs
Ay
W
es
tD
or
th
N
R
en
fre
w
ks
na
r
La
So
ut
h
hi
re
sh
ire
hi
re
hi
re
ut
h
So
un
ba
rto
Ay
ns
rs
hi
re
ire
w
sh
fre
en
R
st
Ea
Ea
st
D
w
go
la
s
G
Sc
ot
la
n
d
C
ity
0%
Council
An indicator of the number and percentage of working age adults who are
‘employment deprived’ – a measure of those not in work either due to unemployment,
87
illness or disability – was produced as a component of the Scottish Index of Multiple
Deprivation 5,v .
Across the West of Scotland councils, 235,000 adults were ‘employment deprived’ in
2002, a third of whom (85,000) lived in Glasgow City. Glasgow also had the highest
percentage of the working age population who were employment deprived (23%),
whereas the lowest percentages were in East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire
(both 9%) (Figure 4.8).
Figure 4.8
% of working age population who are 'Employment Deprived', West of Scotland council
areas, 2002
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (from SIMD)
25
23.1
20
% of Working Age Population
17.4
13.8
16.1
15.7
15.5
15
19.0
18.8
18.6
17.9
13.7
10
9.1
8.8
5
rto
ns
hi
re
ks
hi
re
La
na
r
W
es
tD
un
ba
In
ve
rc
ly
de
N
or
th
Ay
rs
hi
re
N
or
th
Ay
rs
hi
re
Ea
st
sh
ire
en
fre
w
R
La
na
rk
sh
ire
Ay
rs
hi
re
So
ut
h
So
ut
h
rto
ns
hi
re
fre
w
sh
ire
Ea
st
D
un
ba
C
ity
la
sg
ow
G
Ea
st
R
en
W
es
t
of
Sc
ot
la
n
Sc
ot
la
nd
d
0
Council
At a data zone vi level across the West of Scotland, there is a massive variation in the
proportion of working age adults who are employment deprived. In the ten data zones
with the lowest rates, between 1.4% and 2.4% of adults were employment deprived;
while in the ten areas with the highest rates, the figures were all above 50%. In one
part of Calton the percentage was above 60% (Figure 4.9).
v
A detailed definition of this measure is available in Appendix 1.
Data zones are areas constructed from 2001 Census output areas and have populations of between
500 and 1,000 household residents.
vi
88
Figure 4.9
% of working age population who are 'Employment Deprived', 2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (from SIMD)
70
64.7
60
% of working age population
58.9
58.8
53.6
53.4
53.2
51.9
51.7
51
50.7
50
40
30
20
13.8
10
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
2
1.7
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
Data Zone
C
al
to
n
al
to
n
C
C
al
to
n
Ki
ng
st
on
Ba
rlo
ch
N
et
he
rle
e
To
ry
gl
en
C
ow
la
irs
As
hf
ie
Pa
ld
th
er
Ki
an
ng
d
st
on
G
ow
kt
hr
ap
pl
e
An
de
rs
to
n
ro
ok
fu
r
an
d
C
or
th
Se
af
ie
ld
G
re
Ba
e
lja
nf
ffr
ar
ay
m
/M
os
sh
ea
d
G
Ay
rD
oo
nf
oo
t
iff
no
ck
N
C
lo
b
er
Sc
ot
la
nd
G
re
en
fa
rm
Be
ar
sd
en
0
Name given is that of the ward within which the Datazone is contained
4.3 Income
Income levels
Data on pay levels from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 6 show that mean
gross weekly pay for Glasgow residents (see Figure 4.10) is slightly below the
national average (-2.6%). Across the West of Scotland average weekly wage levels
are highest for residents of East Dunbartonshire (21.5% higher than Scottish average)
and lowest for residents of West Dunbartonshire (12.3% lower than the Scottish
average).
Figure 4.10
Mean Gross Weekly Pay for all Employees, West of Scotland council areas, 2005
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Office for National Statistics
£600
£481
£500
£458
£456
£424
£396
£400
£300
£200
£100
Ea
st
D
un
ba
rto
ns
h
Ay
rs
hi
ire
re
ire
ut
h
So
en
f re
rs
Ay
or
th
N
Ea
st
R
w
fre
en
R
w
sh
hi
re
sh
ire
re
So
ut
h
La
In
v
na
r
er
ks
hi
cl
yd
e
ire
sh
yr
Ea
st
A
na
rk
sh
ire
re
hi
La
rto
or
th
N
un
ba
W
es
tD
G
la
s
go
w
ns
C
ot
la
nd
ity
£0
Sc
£
£372
£367
£348
£398
£395
£394
£386
Council
89
Gross weekly pay has been rising in recent years, by 30% nationally from 1998-2005
and by the same amount in Glasgow. However it is interesting to note that the gap in
pay between the highest and lowest paid is widening, both nationally and in Glasgow.
While pay in the lowest paid decile of employees rose by 24%, amongst the highest
paid ten per cent of employees the increase in pay was 34%. In percentage terms
these figures do not seem so far apart; however, the equivalent rises in actual weekly
pay equate to just over £22 in the lowest paid decile and to £189 in the highest paid
decile. In fact, the increase in the highest paid group is comfortably greater than the
actual pay of the lowest paid decile (£116 a week). Figure 4.11 highlights these
trends and patterns for Glasgow vii .
Figure 4.11
Gross Weekly Pay for all Employees, Glasgow, 1998 versus 2005
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Office for National Statistics
£800
£744
£700
£600
£555
£500
£
1998
2005
£400
£300
£200
£100
£116
£94
£10
20
25
30
40
60
70
75
80
90
Percentile
Accurate estimates of overall income from all sources are difficult to come by beneath
council level. However, modelled estimates calculated by the marketing company,
CACI viii , illustrate the relative differences in gross annual household income across
the West of Scotland. It should be noted, however, that it is difficult to verify the
accuracy of these estimates, and, thus, they should be interpreted with caution.
Figure 4.12 shows the estimated average annual gross household income figures in
2003 for Scotland (approximately £26,500) and West of Scotland communities (the
latter ranging from around £18,400 in Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow to
approximately £38,400 in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie: a two-fold relative
difference, and an absolute difference of around £20,000). It is notable that the areas
with the highest and lowest incomes are all in Greater Glasgow.
vii
These pay comparison estimates relate to people in employment in Glasgow rather than to
employees who are Glasgow residents and, thus, will include workers who commute into Glasgow.
viii
Provided by Communities Scotland. Details of how these estimates were created are provided in
Appendix 1.
90
Figure 4.12
Average Annual Gross Household Income, 2003
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: Communities Scotland (CACI Paycheck Data)
£45,000
£40,000
£35,000
£30,000
£
£25,000
£20,000
£15,000
£10,000
£5,000
M
ar
yh
ill/
W
oo
d
Br sid
Sc
e
id
ot
ge &
to N G lan
n
la d
So &
D sgo
C
e
ly uth
de
W nni w
ba
es sto
nk
tG u
n
&
l
D as
Ea rum g o w
s
ch
So te
a
ut rn
G pe
h
Ea las l
g
st
G ow
la
sg
o
W w
E
Ai
i
rd as sha
rie t A
w
yr
&
C shi
oa
re
N
or tbri
d
th
Ay g e
rs
Pa
M
h
ot ire
is
le
he
y
C
am a n
In rwe
bu d L ver ll
c
e
sl
a n ve l yd
rn
e
g
Va
&
R
ut lley
he
rg
G
re
l
at Ha en
er
m
Sh ilto
aw n
la
G
n
la
sg
L ds
ow om
W ond
So es
tE
ut
h
R
Ay n d
en
rs
fre
C
ly hire
w
&
C des
u
W
d
es mb ale
t R er
en nau
fre ld
Ea ws
An
st hir
e
K
ni
es
St ilbr
la
ra ide
nd
th
/B
ke
ea
l
rs Eas vin
de
t
n/ wo
o
M
iln d
ga
vi
e
£0
Community
Figure 4.13 presents the same data at a small area level, showing the ten postcode
sectors in the West of Scotland with the lowest average annual gross household
income next to the ten sectors with the highest. Note that (a) all bar one of these 20
areas are located within Greater Glasgow, and (b) the relative difference between the
area with highest income and the one with the lowest is four-fold, and the absolute
difference is almost £36,000 (ranging from under £13,200 in Bridgeton East to almost
£49,000 in the sector covering Cumbernauld Village & Dullatur).
Figure 4.13
Average Annual Gross Household Income, 2003
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: Communities Scotland (CACI Paycheck Data)
£55,000
£50,000
£45,000
£40,000
£35,000
£
£30,000
£25,000
£20,000
£15,000
£10,000
£5,000
H
am
ilt
o
yg
l
;T
or
ie
ad
m
nh
C
ill
as
t le
m
ilk
W
Pa
rk
G
he
ar
a
ng
d
N
ad
;R
oy
st
on
R
uc
ha
zi
e
C
ar
nt
yn
Be
Pa
e
ar
rk
sd
he
en
ad
-K
S
ilm
ar
di
nn
C
y
ar
m
un
no
ck
G
if f
no
ck
H
yn
H
ou
dl
an
st
on
Be
d;
D
ar
ow
sd
Be
en
an
ar
hi
sd
-K
ll
en
es
-C
si
n
gt
as
Br
on
tle
oo
hi
m
ll;
;K
Th
irk
or
n
hi
ll;
C
um
M
ea
be
rn
rn
s
au
D
um
ld
br
Vi
ec
lla
ge
k
;D
ul
la
tu
r
en
ck
E
no
to
n
ar
D
al
m
Po
l
ge
Br
id
Sc
ot
la
nd
£0
Postcode sector
91
Income Support claimants
The rate of Income Support claimants provides a proxy measure of low income and
shows a large variation across the West of Scotland. However it is within Greater
Glasgow that the largest differences exist. In Eastwood and in Anniesland, Bearsden
& Milngavie, 5% of the working age population in the year 2000 were claiming
Income Support (IS), while in Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow and in
Bridgeton & Dennistoun over 30% of working age adults were claiming these benefits
(Figure 4.14).
Figure 4.14
% of working age population claiming Income Support, 2000
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from DWP data)
35
31
32
30
26
25
24
25
22
%
20
15
14
13
11
10
8
5
11
11
11
15
15
15
16
16
16
17
17
18
18
12
8
5
5
An
n
ie
sl
an
d/
Be
ar
Sc
ot
la
Ea nd
st
sd
w
en
oo
/M
d
iln
ga
St
vi
e
ra
th
ke
R
Ea
lv
en
in
s
tK
fre
ilb
w
C
rid
&
um
W
e
be
es
rn
tR
au
en
fre ld
w
sh
ire
C
ly
de
So
sd
ut
a
le
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
Lo
m
Ea
on
st
d
Ay
N
rs
or
hi
th
re
Ay
rs
hi
M
re
ot
he
rw
el
G
l
H
la
Pa
am
sg
is
ow
le
ilt
o
y
n
W
an
e
d
Le st E
nd
ve
rn
Va
lle
Ai
y
rd
W
rie
is
&
ha
C
w
oa
tb
rid
ge
G
In
C
r
v
e
am
er
at
c
e
bu
ly
rS
de
sl
ha
an
w
g
la
&
n
So
ds
R
ut
ut
C
he
h
ly
Ea
rg
de
le
st
ba
n
G
nk
la
&
sg
D
ow
ru
m
Ea
ch
M
st
ar
ap
er
So
yh
n
el
ut
G
ill/
h
la
W
W
s
oo
go
es
ds
w
tG
id
la
Br
e
sg
&
id
ow
ge
N
G
to
la
n
sg
&
ow
D
en
ni
st
ou
n
0
Community
The difference in rates of claiming is more dramatic when small areas are compared.
In the ten areas with the lowest rates of claimants, between 1.5% and 3.5% of adults
were claiming IS in 2000, while in the ten areas with the highest rates of claimants
(nine out of ten of which were in Glasgow) 43% to 60% of adults were IS claimants
(Figure 4.15).
92
Figure 4.15
% of working age population claiming Income Support, 2000
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from DWP data)
70
60.7
57.5
60
54.3
50.2
50
43.3
43.5
45.0
45.5
50.6
47.3
%
40
30
20
12.6
10
1.5
2.0
2.5
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.5
E
ar
no
ck
to
n
m
D
al
al
to
n
C
Br
id
ge
Sc
ot
la
nd
Br
oo
C
la
m
r
ks
;K
to
irk
n
hi
ll;
M
ea
rn
s
Le
H
nz
ou
ie
st
on
S;
Au
ch
in
lo
ch
W
em
Be
ys
ar
s
s
Be
de
Ba
ar
n
y
sd
-W
en
es
-C
te
rto
as
n
tle
Be
hi
ar
ll;
sd
Th
en
or
n
-K
es
si
ng
to
n
G
D
i
f
f
oo
no
nf
ck
oo
t;
Al
lo
w
ay
C
as
tle
m
ilk
W
Pa
rk
ho
D
us
ru
e
m
ch
ap
el
N
E
Pa
rk
he
G
ad
re
en
N
oc
k
C
en
tra
l
Pa
rk
he
ad
S
H
am
ilt
on
hi
ll
0
Postcode Sector
Between 2001 and 2003, there was a small increase in the percentage of the working
age population claiming Income Support nationally and across all the West of
Scotland councils. In 2003, East Dunbartonshire had the lowest rate in the West of
Scotland (5.6%) and Glasgow City had by far the highest (19.4%), equating to over
91,000 claimants.
Income deprivation
This indicator is again taken from the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD)
and provides a measure of the percentage of adults and children living in households
with lower than average incomes ix .
At a national level it is estimated that in 2002 there were over 750,000 people, or 15%
of the population, living in ‘income deprivation’. Across the West of Scotland this
percentage was higher (19%), but it varied greatly from 8% in East Dunbartonshire
and East Renfrewshire to 28% in Glasgow City (Figure 4.16).
ix
Appendix 1 provides a more detailed definition of this measure.
93
Figure 4.16
% of population who are 'Income Deprived', West of Scotland council areas, 2002
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (from SIMD)
30%
28%
25%
21%
19%
% of population
20%
19%
18%
16%
16%
15%
15%
19%
19%
14%
10%
8%
8%
5%
ire
e
ly
d
D
un
ba
rt o
ns
h
er
c
In
v
Ay
rs
hi
re
W
es
t
N
or
th
N
or
th
Ay
La
na
rk
s
rs
hi
re
hi
re
ire
st
Ea
Ea
st
D
R
en
f re
w
sh
un
ba
rt o
ns
hi
re
Ea
st
R
en
fre
w
sh
ire
So
ut
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
So
ut
h
La
na
rk
sh
i re
C
ity
G
la
sg
ow
co
tla
nd
W
es
to
fS
Sc
ot
la
nd
0%
Council
At a data zone level across the West of Scotland, the proportion of working age adults
categorised as income deprived varies hugely from areas where no one is living in
income deprivation to areas where the percentage of the population in income
deprivation ranges from 64% to 80%. While the majority of these data zones (seven
out of ten) are in Glasgow City, two are in Paisley and one is in Craigneuk in North
Lanarkshire (Figure 4.17).
Figure 4.17
% of population who are 'Income Deprived', 2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (from SIMD)
90
80.5
80
64.1
64.7
64.8
66.5
64.9
66.7
67
71.1
60
50
40
30
20
15.0
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
po
ch
hi
Ea
ll
st
er
ho
us
e
Pa
rk
he
ad
Fe
rg
us
lie
Ke
lv
in
Ke
p
al
to
n
N
or
th
C
C
lo
be
G
iff
r
D
no
oo
ck
nf
N
W
oo
o
es
rth
ta
te
nd
rw
Se
oo
af
d,
ie
G
C
ld
iff
ar
no
ric
ck
ks
So
to
ne
ut
h
an
d
D
M
u
lla
os
tu
sn
r
eu
k/
Ki
tto
ch
St
ew
ar
tfi
el
Ay
d
rM
as
on
hi
ll
St
.J
am
es
G
ar
th
am
lo
ck
Q
ue
en
sl
ie
C
ra
ig
ne
uk
Ay
r
m
Be
ar
sd
en
G
re
e
nf
ar
d
0
Sc
ot
la
n
% of population
70
68.5
Data Zone
Name given is that of the ward within which the Datazone is contained
94
Free school meals
At a council level, Glasgow City stands out as having the highest proportion of
primary school pupils eligible for free school meals. At 42%, this is double the
national figure and around five times the rate of East Dunbartonshire, the council area
with the lowest eligibility rate in the West of Scotland (see Figure 4.18). In terms of
trends, the graph also shows that the proportion of eligible pupils has fallen very
slightly across all Scotland (from 24% in 1997 to the current figure of 21%) and
Glasgow City has experienced a similarly small decrease over the eight-year period –
down from 46% in 1997 to 42% in 2004.
Figure 4.18
Primary school pupils entitled to free school meals,
by West of Scotland local authority, 1997-2004
Source: Scottish Executive Education Department
Glasgow City
60.0
West Dunbartonshire
50.0
North Ayrshire
Inverclyde
40.0
North Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
30.0
East Ayrshire
Scotland
20.0
South Lanarkshire
10.0
South Ayrshire
East Renfrewshire
0.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
East Dunbartonshire
Figure 4.19 shows the variation within Glasgow between the ten schools with the
lowest, and the ten with the highest rates (note that the data is presented by location of
school). Schools with the lowest rates have between 3% and 13% of pupils eligible.
At the other end of spectrum, the schools with the highest rates have between 76%
and 92% of pupils eligible.
95
Figure 4.19
Glasgow primary school pupils entitled to free school meals, 2004
Comparison of 10 schools with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
Source: Scottish Executive Education Department
100.0
92
90.0
76
% of school roll
80.0
77
78
79
79
80
81
84
85
70.0
60.0
50.0
42
40.0
30.0
21
20.0
10.0
3
6
6
7
7
9
11
13
12
12
G
Ea
Ib
ro
st
er
x
ho
D
u
ru
s
e
m
E
ch
Tr
ad
ap
es
el
to
N
E
n;
G
or
ba
ls
ro
ys
Po
to
n
llo
ks
ar
ng
ha
ad
w
s
;R
oy
st
on
R
uc
ha
zi
e
C
ow
C
la
as
irs
tle
m
ilk
W
S
ar
t
R
ob
n
at
hc
C
Ba
illi
es
to
Ba
rm
ul
lo
ch
;
un
no
ck
i
n
Sa
n
Pa
nd
Ba
rk
yh
illi
ills
es
;M
to
n
ou
N
nt
Ve
rn
Ke
Ba
on
lv
illi
in
es
da
to
le
n
;K
N
el
vi
ns
id
e
N
ew
la
nd
s
;L
ar
m
C
C
ro
ftf
oo
t
ity
C
ow
la
sg
G
Sc
o
tla
nd
0.0
Location of school
The figures on children living in workless households, which vary hugely across the
West of Scotland and within Glasgow, are also clearly relevant to building up a
picture of relative economic circumstances of households. In 2001, 36% of children
lived in households in Glasgow where no one was in work 7 . This was double the
Scottish figure. Further detail on children living in workless households is contained
in Chapter 9: Children and adolescents.
4.4 House prices
House prices are included in this section as they not only give an indication of the
relative attractiveness of living in different neighbourhoods but, given their nature, are
an indicator of wealth and, by extension, the affordability of living in particular areas.
The figures presented (provided by Communities Scotland) cover the year 2003 and,
given the striking year-on-year increases in house prices within Scotland, will already
be out of date. However, the relative differences between areas are unlikely to have
changed significantly in the intervening period.
Figure 4.20 shows average house prices by West of Scotland community in 2003. The
national average in this year was approximately £86,500, but at a community level
this ranged from £51,500 in Wishaw to around £161,000 in Anniesland, Bearsden &
Milngavie.
96
Figure 4.20
Average House Price, 2003
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: Communities Scotland (Communities Scotland/SASINE)
£180,000
£160,000
£140,000
£120,000
£
£100,000
£80,000
£60,000
£40,000
£20,000
Sc
ot
la
n
W d
is
Ai
ha
M
rd
C
w
o
ly
r
de ie & the
ba
rw
nk C o a e l
M
ar
tb l
&
yh
r
D
ill/
ru idg
e
W
m
oo
Ea ch
ap
ds
s
t
id
Ay el
So e &
r
N shi r
ut
h
e
G
W
la
s
es
Pa
t G gow
is
la
N
le
o
s
y
a n rt h g o w
Ay
d
Le
rs
hi
Ea ver
re
st n V
er
a
ll
n
G ey
la
C
um sgo
be w
rn
I n aul d
ve
R
rc
en
ly
C
f re
d
ly
w
de e
&
sd
W
C
al
am
es
H
e
b u t R am
i
sl
e
an nfr lton
e
g
w
So &
s
ut Ru hire
h
t
Ea her
gl
st
G en
l
Ea asg
ow
st
Ki
lb
rid
S o Lo e
u t mo
h
n
Br
Ay d
id
ge
St rsh
ir
to
ra
n
th e
&
ke
G
D
l
v
re
en
in
at
er nis
t
G
l a Sh o u n
An
a
sg
ni
ow wla
es
W nds
la
nd
es
/B
tE
ea
Ea nd
rs
de stw
n/
oo
M
iln d
ga
vi
e
£0
Community
As ever, the variation at a small area level is even more striking. Figure 4.21 shows
the ten postcode sectors with the lowest average price alongside the ten sectors with
the highest price, with the figures ranging from under £25,000 in parts of Easterhouse
to over £225,000 in Bearsden.
Figure 4.21
Average House Price, 2003
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: Communities Scotland (Communities Scotland/SASINE)
£250,000
£225,000
£200,000
£175,000
£125,000
£100,000
£75,000
£50,000
£25,000
£0
Sc
ot
Ea
la
st
nd
er
ho
us
e
W
Pe
Ea
ni
le
st
e
er
ho
us
e
E
N
its
hi
Pa
ll
rk
he
ad
H
S
am
ilt
Irv
on
in
hi
e
St
ll
C
ev
en
en
tre
s
;S
to
n
ta
ne
D
c
a
ru
st
m
le
ch
Be
ap
ar
el
sd
N
E
en
Sp
ri n
-C
gs
as
Br
id
tle
oo
e
hi
m
ll;
;K
Th
irk
o
r
hi
n
ll;
M
ea
rn
s
H
D
yn
um
dl
br
an
e
d;
ck
D
D
ow
oo
an
nf
hi
oo
ll
t;
M
Al
iln
lo
ga
w
vi
ay
e
-B
ar
lo
Be
ch
ar
sd
G
iff
en
n
oc
-K
k
ilm
ar
di
nn
Be
C
ar
y
ar
m
sd
un
en
no
-K
ck
es
si
ng
to
n
£
£150,000
Postcode sector
97
It is widely known that house prices have been rising in all parts of Scotland for over
a decade. Figure 4.22, which shows average house prices for the period 1993-2004,
illustrates this upward trend, but also shows the growing attractiveness of Glasgow’s
housing, which in terms of average house sale values has caught up with the Scottish
average.
Figure 4.22
Average House Price, Glasgow City & Scotland 1993-2004
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
£120,000
£100,000
Scotland
Glasgow City
£
£80,000
£60,000
£40,000
£20,000
£0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
4.5 Households without access to a car or van
This is a measure normally derived from the Census and is a component of the
Carstairs deprivation index x . Access to a car is also a reasonable proxy for car
ownership and, thus, for relative affluence, although patterns and trends in the
prevalence of access to a car clearly also have important environmental influences
(see Chapter 6: Physical environment).
Across the West of Scotland, and in Glasgow in particular, there is a huge variation in
the percentage of households who do not have access to a car or van. In Eastwood
and in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie less than 20% of households do not have
access to a car, while in Bridgeton & Dennistoun, the figure is above 70% (Figure
4.23).
x
Carstairs deprivation scores were originally developed by Vera Carstairs and Russell Morris. See the
MRC Social and Public Health Sciences Unit website for more details:
http://www.msoc-mrc.gla.ac.uk/Publications/pub/Carstairs_MAIN.html.
98
Figure 4.23
% of households without access to a car or van, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
80
71
67
70
57
60
52
50
%
50
40
53
54
45
34
29
30
24
17
20
29
31
32
33
34
33
36
37
38
39
41
42
43
25
19
10
An
ni
es
la
nd
Sc
ot
la
/B
Ea nd
ea
rs
st
w
de
oo
n/
d
M
iln
ga
St
vi
e
ra
th
ke
lv
C
in
ly
de
R
Ea sda
en
le
st
fre
So Kilb
w
rid
&
ut
W
h
e
Ay
es
tR
rs
hi
en
r
e
fre
w
sh
C
um
ire
be
rn
au
ld
Lo
m
Ea
on
st
d
Ay
rs
hi
re
H
am
N
ilt
or
on
th
Ay
rs
hi
Ai
re
rd
W
rie
is
&
ha
C
w
oa
C
am
tb
rid
bu
ge
M
sl
ot
an
Pa
he
g
is
rw
&
le
y
R
el
ut
an
l
he
d
rg
Le
le
ve
n
rn
Va
lle
G
In
y
re
ve
at
rc
er
ly
de
Sh
G
la
aw
sg
la
ow
nd
s
Ea We
C
ly
st
st
de
En
ba ern
d
G
nk
la
&
sg
D
So
ow
r
u
ut
m
h
ch
M
ar
ap
So Eas
yh
el
tG
ut
ill/
h
la
W
W
s
oo
go
es
ds
w
tG
id
la
Br
e
sg
&
id
ow
ge
N
G
to
la
n
sg
&
ow
D
en
ni
st
ou
n
0
Community
At a postcode sector level, comparing the ten sectors in the West of Scotland with the
highest rates of access to the ten with the lowest rates, these differences are more
pronounced with less than 10% of households without access to a car in some areas,
but 77 to 81% in the areas of low car ownership – all of which are in Glasgow (Figure
4.24).
Figure 4.24
% of households without access to a car or van, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
90
77.1
80
77.2
77.4
77.7
77.7
78.5
78.3
77.9
79.4
81.0
70
60
%
50
40
34.2
30
20
10
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.4
8.3
8.4
9.0
9.1
9.4
ad
S
Br
id
ge
to
n
E
H
am
ilt
on
hi
ll
no
ck
Pa
rk
he
Ib
ro
x
D
al
m
ar
Sc
ot
la
nd
W
Br
em
oo
y
ss
m
C
;
um
Ba
Ki
rk
be
y
hi
rn
ll;
au
M
ld
ea
Vi
rn
lla
s
ge
;D
ul
la
tu
r
H
ou
D
oo
st
on
nf
oo
t;
Al
lo
w
Be
ay
ar
sd
C
en
la
rk
-C
st
as
on
tle
hi
ll;
Th
or
n
Be
G
le
ar
n
sd
F
ru
en
in
-K
es
si
G
ng
ar
to
ng
n
ad
;R
oy
st
on
Pa
rk
he
ad
Ea
N
st
er
ho
us
e
W
To
w
nh
ea
d
C
am
la
ch
ie
0
Postcode sector
99
Figure 4.25 illustrates the downward trend in the population without access to a car
over the last 20 years or (put another way) the growth of car ownership. In Scotland
as a whole only a quarter of the population did not have access to a car in 2001
compared to 41% in 1981, while in Greater Glasgow lack of access to a car dropped
from 57% in 1981 to 39% in 2001. It should be noted that this measure is slightly
different from that used in Figures 4.23 and 4.24, which were based on households
without access to a car or van.
Figure 4.25
% of all persons in private households without access to a car or van,1981-2001
Greater Glasgow and Scotland
Source: Census
60.0
56.8
49.2
50.0
41.3
40.0
38.6
%
33.8
30.0
Greater Glasgow
25.6
Scotland
20.0
10.0
0.0
1981
1991
2001
4.6 Social grade / social class
Social grade is the socioeconomic classification used by the market research and
marketing industries xi . The analyses described below compare the percentage of
adults in households classified as social grade ‘AB’ (higher and intermediate
managerial, administrative, professional) and as social grade ‘E’ (on state benefit,
unemployed people, lowest grade workers) by community and postcode sector, based
on data from the 2001 Census.
Across West of Scotland communities, the percentage of adults (16+) who are in
households classified as ‘AB’ varies from 8% in Maryhill, Woodside and North
Glasgow to 36% in Eastwood and 38% in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie (Figure
4.26).
xi
Appendix 1 provides further details on the definition of ‘social grade’.
100
Figure 4.26
% of adults (16+) in households classified as AB (Higher and intermediate managerial /
administrative / professional), 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
45
38
40
36
35
30
26
%
25
19
20
15
13
13
10
10
10
10
14
14
16
16
17
17
18
18
18
20
20
21
21
22
23
24
10
8
5
M
ar
yh
ill/
W
oo
ds
Sc
id
e
ot
&
So
la
N
nd
ut
G
h
la
W
es sgo
t
w
Br Eas Gla
sg
id
t
ge ern
ow
C
to
G
ly
la
de n &
sg
ba
D
en ow
nk
ni
&
st
D
ru oun
m
ch
ap
Ai
rd
el
rie
W
is
&
ha
C
w
oa
tb
rid
M
ge
ot
h
Ea erw
st
e
Ay ll
N
rs
or
So
h
th
ire
ut
A
h
Ea yrs
hi
st
re
C
G
am
la
sg
bu
ow
s
I
l
n
Pa
an
ve
g
is
rc
le
&
ly
y
de
an R u
th
d
er
Le
ve glen
rn
V
C
um alle
y
be
rn
au
l
d
H
am
ilt
C
on
ly
de
sd
R
en
al
fre
Lo e
w
So
m
&
ut
on
W
d
es h A
yr
tR
en shir
e
fre
w
sh
Ea
G
i
r
s
e
re
tK
at
ilb
er
Sh ride
G
la
a
sg
w
la
ow
nd
W
s
es
An
tE
ni
S
nd
es
tra
la
th
nd
ke
/B
l
ea
Ea vin
rs
de stw
oo
n/
M
d
iln
ga
vi
e
0
Community
At a postcode sector level the differences in the social composition of populations are
even more apparent (Figure 4.27). The ten areas with the lowest percentage of adults
classified as ‘AB’ are all in recognisably deprived parts of Glasgow, where the
percentage of adults classified as ‘AB’ ranges between 2% and 4%. In contrast, the
ten areas with the highest rates are recognisably affluent areas, and adults classified as
‘AB’ make up between 41% and 47% of the adult population.
Figure 4.27
% of adults (16+) in households classified as AB (Higher and intermediate managerial /
administrative / professional), 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
50
41
42
42
42
43
45
45
47
47
47
40
%
30
20
19
10
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
Sc
ot
la
nd
Br
id
ge
to
Ea
n
E
st
er
ho
us
e
W
C
as
tle
m
ilk
W
H
am
ilt
on
hi
ll
D
al
m
ar
no
ck
Pa
rk
ho
us
e
H
ig
h
Po
ss
il
R
uc
ha
D
zi
ru
e
m
ch
ap
el
N
E
Ke
C
lv
ar
in
nt
da
yn
le
e
;K
el
vi
ns
id
e
G
le
n
Fr
ui
n
Ki
lm
D
a
Be
oo
co
nf
lm
ar
oo
sd
t;
en
Al
-C
lo
w
as
ay
tle
hi
ll;
Th
or
n
Be
D
ar
um
sd
br
en
ec
-K
k
Br
es
oo
si
m
ng
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0
Postcode sector
101
Across West of Scotland communities, the percentage of adults classified as social
grade ‘E’ (those claiming benefit, unemployed people and the lowest graded workers)
varies from 13% in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie to 42% in Maryhill, Woodside
& North Glasgow (Figure 4.28).
Figure 4.28
% of adults (16+) in households classified as E (On state benefit, unemployed, lowest
grade workers), 2001, West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
45
42
41
40
33
35
30
30
25
25
%
22
18
20
15
13
19
20
22
21
22
25
25
25
26
26
26
28
27
34
36
31
28
22
14
10
5
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0
Community
At a postcode sector level the contrast in social composition of areas is even clearer.
In the ten areas with the lowest concentration of adults from social grade ‘E’
households, between 6% and 11% of adults are from households classified as social
grade ‘E’. While at the other extreme in the ten areas with the highest concentrations
of adults from social grade ‘E’ households, over 50% of adults are classified as being
from social grade ‘E’ households (Figure 4.29).
Figure 4.29
% of adults (16+) in households classified as E (On state benefit, unemployed, lowest
grade workers), 2001. Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with
lowest rates, West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
70
60
60
51
51
52
52
53
53
55
55
55
50
%
40
30
22
20
10
6
7
8
9
9
10
10
10
10
11
Sc
ot
la
nd
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0
Postcode sector
102
Changing nature of employment and social class in Glasgow
As recently as the 1971 census, Glasgow’s employment was dominated by heavy
engineering, textiles and chemical manufacturing. At that time, the policy emphasis
was on moving toward light engineering and electrical products. Furthermore, large
numbers of workers were engaged in the distributive trades for these manufacturing
industries and in the production of food (including bread), drink and tobacco. The
intervening period has seen a collapse in manufacturing but improved quality of work
for those in employment. One way of capturing this change is to explore how social
class has changed over the past 25 years.
With almost four out of ten of its population now in the top two social classes 8 (see
Table 4.2), Glasgow is not only comparable to the rest of Scotland in this regard but is
similar to most other leading cities in the UK. In the same period, Glasgow has seen a
104% increase in owner occupation of housing (larger than the increase for Scotland
as a whole at 80%).
Table 4.2 Social Class I and II in 1981 and 2001
Social Class I & II Social Class I & II
1981
2001
Glasgow
18%
38%
Rest of West
Central Scotland
Scotland
% change
+111%
28%
37%
+32%
28%
37%
+32%
James Arnott, an analyst with Glasgow City Council and a member of the Glasgow
Centre for Population Health’s ‘Observatory Group’ will be bringing out a detailed
analysis of the size and nature of such changes in Glasgow later in 2006. The
publication of his report will be an opportunity to discuss these findings in more
detail.
103
Summary
x
In terms of business, it is clear that Glasgow has retained a position within the UK
as a major business centre, and is rated second only to London as a retail centre.
However, its economic output, although rising, is still growing more slowly than
the Scottish average and Glasgow’s ranking in terms of economic output has
fallen relative to other UK cities in recent years. The service sector has grown to
a position of predominance in Glasgow’s economy, providing the bulk of the
city’s economic output and employment. In contrast, manufacturing has declined
over the last 50 years and continues to do so.
x
There are now more women than men in employment in Glasgow and part-time
work has grown to represent more than a quarter of all jobs. The number of
Glasgow residents in employment has grown in recent years (by more than 45,000
jobs in the period 1998-2004) but employment levels remain considerably lower
than the Scottish average, although the gap has reduced.
x
The official unemployment rate and the claimant unemployment rate have both
reduced greatly over the last four to five years. Relative inequalities in
employment between different parts of the West of Scotland, and within Glasgow,
remain however, and official unemployment rates do not provide a true measure
of the extent of worklessness. In Glasgow it is estimated that there are 110,000
adults who are not economically active, equating to 30% of the working age
population.
x
The ‘employment deprived’ measure used in the Scottish Index of Multiple
Deprivation provides a measure of ‘worklessness’ due to unemployment, illness
or disability and emphasises the size of this problem in the West of Scotland. In
2002, 235,000 adults in the region were defined as ‘employment deprived’, 54%
of the Scottish total. Glasgow City alone contributed 85,000 people or 19% of the
Scottish total. This measure, analysed at a small area level (data zone), illustrates
the massive inequalities in employment that exist in the West of Scotland –
ranging from 1 to 2% of adults being ‘employment deprived’ in the more affluent
areas compared to over 60% of adults in the most deprived areas.
x
Income for those in work has risen in recent years, both nationally and in
Glasgow. However income inequalities are widening with those in the best-paid
occupations having gained more relatively, and far more absolutely, in terms of
pay.
x
Income Support provides a good measure of those on low income (whether in
employment or not) and it is across Greater Glasgow communities that the
greatest inequalities are apparent. In 2000, there was a six-fold variation in the
proportion of the working age population claiming Income Support; ranging from
5% in Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie to over 30% in Bridgeton
& Dennistoun.
104
x
A broader measure of income deprivation, taken from the Scottish Index of
Multiple Deprivation, illustrates that, while across the West of Scotland 19% of
the population are estimated to live in ‘income deprivation’, this figure varies
greatly from 8% in East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire to 28% in
Glasgow City – the latter figure equating to over 160,000 of the city’s population.
In the most income deprived datazones of the West of Scotland, two thirds of the
population live in ‘income deprivation’.
x
In terms of ‘free school meals’ eligibility, Glasgow City (at 42%) has double the
national rate of pupils eligible for free school meals. Although this proportion
represents a small reduction on the rate in 1997, Glasgow’s eligibility rate is still
the highest rate in Scotland and around five times the rate of East Dunbartonshire.
x
In other ways, though, Glasgow appears to have become a wealthier city,
although, or maybe because of this, the inequalities in wealth and status have
become starker.
o House prices have risen hugely in the last ten years and to a level in many
areas where affordability has become a very real issue, especially for those on
lower incomes. The variation in house prices across Glasgow at a small area
level is striking, with average house prices (in 2003) ranging from under
£25,000 in parts of Easterhouse to over £225,000 in Bearsden.
o There has been an overall trend towards greater numbers of households with
access to a car, but there are large variations in access levels across the West
of Scotland and especially in Glasgow.
o The proportion of Glasgow’s population in the top two social classes has more
than doubled since 1981 so that in 2001 four out of ten adults in Glasgow were
classified as either Social Class I or II. Essentially, Glasgow now has more
middle class jobs and its employment structure is similar to most other leading
cities in the UK. However, there are wide variations in the distribution of
these ‘better’ jobs across the city. For example, in Maryhill, Woodside &
North Glasgow in 2001, 8% of adult residents came from households
classified as ‘AB’ (higher and intermediate managerial / administrative /
professional) compared to over 35% in Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden &
Milngavie.
x
In short, Glasgow has developed a service based economy over the last 20 years
and is no longer dependent on manufacturing. While the city’s middle class has
grown and some parts of the city prosper from greater employment and higher
wages, other parts of Glasgow have seen little improvement in circumstances. For
those in the ‘other Glasgow’, many are dependent on income, disability and
unemployment related benefits, and those who are earning are in low paid jobs.
105
References
1
Glasgow City Council, Scottish Enterprise Glasgow. Glasgow Economic Monitor,
Autumn 2005. 2005
http://www.glasgoweconomicfacts.com/library%5Fsection/
2
Cushman & Wakefield Healey & Baker, European Cities Monitor, September 2004
http://www.cushmanwakefield.com/cwglobal/jsp/servicesDetail.jsp?serviceId=25000
30&Country=EMEA&Language=null
3
NHS Health Scotland. Constituency Health and Well-being Profiles. 2004
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/constituencyprofiles
4
NHS Health Scotland. Community Health and Well-being Profiles. 2004
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/communityprofiles
5
Scottish Executive. Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004: technical report.
2004
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/library5/society/siomd-00.asp
6
Office for National Statistics (ONS). Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
[1998 and 2005 results].
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=13101&Pos=4&ColRank=1
&Rank=160
7
General Register Office for Scotland. 2001 Census results – Theme Table T16, 2003
http://www.scrol.gov.uk
8
Arnott J. Socio-economic change in the Glasgow conurbation. In press
106
Glasgow City has by far the highest proportion of pupils from minority ethnic
communities of any Scottish council (10.9%), equating to 7,500 pupils. It also has the
highest percentage of pupils from less affluent households – 42% of primary school
pupils were eligible to receive free school meals in 2004, double the national average.
Levels of educational attainment among adults and participation in higher education by
young people display strong socio-economic patterning.
There are high proportions of lone parent families in many parts of Greater Glasgow,
but also great polarity between areas with high concentrations (e.g. Bridgeton &
Dennistoun) and those with much lower concentrations (e.g. Eastwood).
Two-thirds of Greater Glasgow residents feel that neighbours look out for each other in
their local area and that people can be trusted in their local area.
Relatively low proportions of Greater Glasgow residents reported feeling isolated from
friends and relatives (15% of respondents).
The majority of Greater Glasgow residents have a positive perception of their local
area as a place to live and to bring up children. However, people living in more
deprived parts of the city are much less positive about their local areas compared to
those from more affluent areas.
Homelessness applications in Glasgow have been consistently double the Scottish
average for the last eight years and are much higher proportionately than in the other
West of Scotland council areas.
Glasgow City has the highest overall crime rate among councils in Scotland and within
the West of Scotland, Glasgow has the highest rates for a range of crime types.
Analysis of violent crime in Glasgow shows that male offenders outnumber females by
over three to one and the peak ages for offenders and victims are the mid-teenage
years to early twenties. The areas of residence of violent offenders and victims of
violence are highly correlated with deprivation. In some smaller communities in
Glasgow over one in ten people have been the victim of a violent crime in the last three
years.
West Dunbartonshire and Glasgow have the highest and second highest rates of
domestic abuse, respectively, in the West of Scotland.
Rates of assault admission in Glasgow are much higher than the Scottish average across
all ages. Admissions after ‘assault by a sharp object’ predominate, a reflection of the
high rates of knife crime in the city.
“Glasgow City has by far the highest proportion of pupils from minority
ethnic communities of any Scottish Council.”
“Two-thirds of Greater Glasgow residents felt that neighbours look out for
each other in their local area and that people can be trusted in their local
area.”
“Glasgow City has the highest overall crime rate among councils in
Scotland.”
Chapter 5: Social environment
Summary
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 5: Social environment
How we behave, our relationships, our gender and ethnic group, our education and
work, the conditions and communities in which we live, and how we feel about
ourselves are all elements of the social environment. These elements overlap and
interact with elements of the physical environment to influence our health and impact
on the quality of our lives, as well as how long we live. The fact that the social
environment encompasses such a large number of different yet overlapping topics
means that there is a similarly large number of different data sets relevant to its
measurement and understanding.
Many of the topics relevant to describing the social environment of Glasgow and the
West of Scotland are covered in other chapters (e.g. ethnicity, changes in patterns of
employment, behavioural trends, etc.). In this chapter we focus on only a handful of
topics: education, vulnerable households, social capital, crime and homelessness.
Given this limited set of topics, we do not claim that this represents a comprehensive
overview of the social environment of the city and the wider surrounding area.
However, we believe that much of the data compiled is either new or has not been
brought together in such a way before, and the insights these data provide will aid our
understanding of life in Glasgow and the West of Scotland area.
5.1 Education
This section covers three main themes: the size of the school population i , and its
socio-economic and ethnic composition; educational attainment of adults; trends and
patterns in participation in higher education.
Size of the school population
In 2004 there were 170,000 primary school children in the West of Scotland,
representing 43% of all Scottish primary school children. Within Glasgow City there
were just over 40,000 primary school children, 24% of the total for the West of
Scotland. At secondary school level there were 136,000 pupils in the West of
Scotland, representing 43% of the Scottish total, while Glasgow City had 28,900
secondary school pupils, 21% of the total for the West of Scotland. Figure 5.1 shows
school pupil numbers across the West of Scotland council areas.
i
All pupil figures quoted relate to pupils in publicly funded schools in Scotland.
109
Figure 5.1
Total children in primary and secondary schools, 2004
West of Scotland council areas
Source: SE, Pupils in Scotland 2004
80000
Total Number of pupils in secondary schools
70000
Total Number of pupils in primary schools
Numbers of pupils
60000
28914
50000
40000
22363
20018
30000
40544
20000
11657
10000
5571
6397
6492
7550
8255
7625
7384
9869
8676
8407
9205
8690
27989
25043
13925
11409
9469
rk
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rk
sh
ire
na
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th
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or
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i ty
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Council
Socioeconomic and ethnic background of school pupils
Glasgow City has the largest proportion of pupils from low income families, as was
demonstrated in Chapter 4: Economic factors, with reference to the proportion of
pupils eligible for free school meals. 42% of all Glasgow primary pupils were
eligible for free school meals in 2004, representing over 17,500 of the 42,000 primary
pupils in Glasgow. This proportion is double the national average and five times the
level of eligibility in East Dunbartonshire.
In terms of ethnic background, 10.9% (over 7,500) of Glasgow’s primary and
secondary pupils were from minority ethnic groups in 2004 (Figure 5.2). This is by
far the highest proportion of any Scottish local authority and is three times the
Scottish average. Elsewhere in the West of Scotland there were above average
percentages of pupils from ethnic minorities in East Dunbartonshire (5.6%) and in
East Renfrewshire (8.9%)
110
Figure 5.2
Percentage of school pupils from ethnic minority groups, 2004,
West of Scotland council areas
Source: SE, Pupils in Scotland 2004
12%
10.9%
10%
8.9%
Percentage
8%
5.6%
6%
3.5%
4%
2%
1.1%
1.1%
2.2%
1.9%
1.9%
1.4%
2.4%
2.2%
re
re
re
w
ns
sh
i
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en
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sh
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C
ity
es
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G
la
sg
ow
ot
la
nd
0%
Council
Educational attainment of adults
Comparing attainment on three measures – adults of working age with three or more
'Highers'; a degree; no qualifications – across West of Scotland council areas, clear
patterns emerge (see Figure 5.3). Glasgow has a lower proportion of adults with three
or more Highers than Scotland as a whole (52% vs. 57%), the same proportion of
adults with a degree as the Scottish average and more people without a qualification
(22% vs. 16%). Two West of Scotland Councils, East Dunbartonshire and East
Renfrewshire, stand out as having much better qualified residents on average than in
the rest of the West of Scotland and in comparison to the Scottish average.
Figure 5.3
% of adults (of working age) with: 3 or more Highers; a degree; no qualifications,
2003, West of Scotland council areas
Source: SNS
90%
25%
76%
80%
60%
57%
52%
51%
50%
51%
54%
54%
56%
56%
58%
15%
50%
40%
10%
27%
30%
20%
15%
15%
9%
8%
10%
8%
8%
12%
14%
11%
27%
14%
% No Qualifcations
20%
5%
0%
R
en
fre
w
Ea
sh
st
ire
D
un
ba
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ns
Ea
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en
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re
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es
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yr
sh
or
th
N
sg
ow
la
G
Ea
st
A
C
ity
0%
Sc
ot
la
nd
% with qualifications (by type)
72%
70%
Council
% people with at least 3 highers
% people with degree level qualifications
% people with no qualifications
111
Adults with no qualifications at community and postcode sector level
The following graphs show the pattern of adults (16-74) with no qualifications across
the West of Scotland in more geographic detail, drawing on data published in NHS
Health Scotland’s Community Health profiles 1 . In Scotland as a whole 33% of
adults aged 16-74 did not have a qualification in 2001. Across West of Scotland
communities ii , there are wide variations in this measure: in Anniesland, Bearsden &
Milngavie and in Eastwood, 18% and 20% of adults, respectively, did not have a
qualification, while in South West Glasgow, Eastern Glasgow and Maryhill,
Woodside & North Glasgow, 45% or more of adults had no qualification (Figure 5.4).
In the last of these areas, over half of all adults did not have a qualification.
Figure 5.4
% of adults (16-74) with no qualifications, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
60
51
50
40
%
33
32
30
20
26
18
28
33
33
33
33
35
36
37
37
38
38
38
41
41
42
43
44
44
46
48
29
20
10
An
n
ie
s
la
nd
/B
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rs
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la
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0
Community
At a postcode sector level there are even greater variations observed (see Figure 5.5).
In the ten areas with the lowest percentages of adults with no qualifications, between
7% and 16% of adults do not have a qualification, while in the areas with the highest
rates (all in deprived parts of Glasgow) between 59% and 66% of adults have no
qualification.
ii
These are primary care-based localities (mainly the old Local Healthcare Cooperative (LHCC) areas
or, in some cases, the new Community Health (Care) Partnerships (CH(C)Ps)) with populations
ranging from 20,000-140,000 people. For further details see ‘Preface to Chapters 2-12’.
112
Figure 5.5
% of adults (16-74) with no qualifications, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
70
59
60
60
61
62
63
64
63
65
66
66
50
40
%
33
30
20
14
13
10
7
14
14
15
15
15
16
9
H
yn
dl
an
d;
D
Sc
ot
la
nd
ow
an
hi
Be
ll
ar
H
sd
illh
en
e
a
-K
d
ilm
ar
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di
ar
nn
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y
G
en
le
n
-C
Fr
as
u
in
tle
hi
ll;
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Th
el
en
or
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n
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ur
lv
gh
in
;R
da
le
hu
Br
;K
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el
m
vi
;K
ns
irk
id
e
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hi
ll;
ar
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sd
ea
en
rn
-K
s
es
si
ng
to
n
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la
rk
st
on
C
as
tle
m
ilk
W
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ig
h
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ss
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al
to
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ar
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yn
e
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rk
he
ad
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st
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er
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us
e
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am
ilt
on
hi
ll
Pa
rk
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us
e
D
al
m
ar
no
ck
Br
id
ge
to
n
E
0
Postcode sector
Trends and patterns in participation in higher education
Figures on entrants to higher education, provided by the Higher Education Statistics
Agency (HESA), shed some light on the backgrounds of new entrants to full-time
first-degree courses. Across Scotland in the university year 2002/03, 87.5% of
students came from state schools or colleges, while in the main higher education
institutions of the West of Scotland the percentage is higher, although there is
considerable variation between institutions 2 (Figure 5.6).
Figure 5.6
% of young (under 21) first-time entrants to full-time first degree courses from state
schools or colleges, 2002/03
Comparison by country and institution
Source: HESA, Performance Indicators 2002/03
100
98.8
98.1
97.0
97.2
95
%
92.4
90
89.2
87.2
87.5
Total UK
Total Scotland
85
80
The University of
Glasgow
The University of
Strathclyde
Glasgow
Caledonian
University
Glasgow School of The University of
Art
Paisley
Bell College
Country/Institution
113
HESA have also classified entrants by whether they come from ‘low participation’
neighbourhoods iii (see Figure 5.7). The percentage of young first-time entrants to
higher education from such areas was 18.6% across Scotland in 2002/03 and varied
considerably among the West of Scotland Higher Education institutions from 15.4%
of new students of Glasgow School of Art to 51.9% of new young entrants to Bell
College.
Figure 5.7
% of young (under 21) first-time entrants to full-time first degree courses from 'low
1
participation' neighbourhoods , 2002/03
Comparison by country and institution
Source: HESA, Performance Indicators 2002/03
60
51.9
50
%
40
34.9
30
26.3
18.6
20
15.4
13.3
16.8
18.5
19.5
The University
of Strathclyde
The Royal
Scottish
Academy of
Music and
Drama
10
0
Total UK
Total Scotland
Glasgow
School of Art
The University
of Glasgow
Glasgow
Caledonian
University
The University
of Paisley
Bell College
Country/Institution
1
Low-participation neighbourhoods are defined as areas for which the participation rate is less than two-thirds of the UK average rate.
Data provided by HESA has facilitated a detailed geographic analysis of new student
participation rates across the West of Scotland for students domiciled in Scotland.
Before discussing the results it is worth noting a major caveat surrounding this
analysis, which relates to the accuracy of the population denominator used to create
the rates iv . Given this caveat, the actual rates created should be treated with caution,
although we believe that the figures are robust enough to make relative comparisons
between areas.
A comparison of annual rates (averaged over three recent years – 2001/02-2003/04)
across West of Scotland communitiesv shows wide variation in participation rates (see
Figure 5.8). While the Scottish figure is 34%, in Maryhill, Woodside & North
Glasgow the participation rate was estimated to be only 12%. It was only slightly
higher at 15% in Clydebank & Drumchapel. In four Greater Glasgow communities
(including these two) participation rates are estimated to be less than 20%. At the
other end of the spectrum, participation rates in Glasgow West End and Strathkelvin
are estimated to be above 40% and, in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie and in
Eastwood, 65% or above.
iii
Low-participation neighbourhoods are defined as areas for which the participation rate is less than
two-thirds of the UK average.
iv
In the absence of more up to date population data, the population of 17 year olds in 2001 (from the
Census) has been used as the denominator in order to create participation rates. This denominator is
clearly not precisely matched with the numerator in terms of time period or age range.
v
The same communities used in NHS Health Scotland’s Community Health and Well-being profiles1.
114
Figure 5.8
Estimated new student participation rates in Higher Education, annual average, 2001/0203/04, West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
1
Estimated participation rate per 100 population
'yh
ill/
W
C
o
od
ly
Sc
de
si
ot
d
ba
la
nk e/N
nd
an .Gl
as
d
So
go
D
ru
ut
w
Br
m
h
id
c
W
ge
es hap
to
t
e
n
an Gla l
sg
d
D
ow
Ea en
ni
st
st
er
o
un
n
G
la
Ai
sg
rd
ow
rie
W
an
is
d
ha
C
w
oa
tb
rid
M
ge
ot
he
C
um rwe
ll
be
Ea rna
ul
st
Ay d
rs
C
hi
am Sou
In
re
v
th
bu
e
r
Ea
cl
sl
yd
an
st
e
g
an Gla
sg
d
ow
R
Pa
ut
he
is
N
le
rg
or
y
an th A len
d
Le yrs
hi
ve
rn re
Va
lle
C
ly
de y
sd
al
e
H
R
am
en
ilt
fre
on
w
L
an
o
E a mo
d
W
nd
es st K
tR
ilb
rid
en
G
e
re
fre
at
w
er
s
S h h ire
aw
So
la
ut
nd
G
h
la
Ay s
sg
r
ow
An
sh
ire
ni
W
es
es
l'd
tE
/B
St
nd
ea
ra
t
rs
de hk e
l
n/
M v in
iln
ga
E a v ie
st
w
oo
d
Source: Calculated from data supplied by HESA
80
70
70
65
60
50
40
44
34
30
20
12
15
17
19
21
23
24
27
29
29
30
30
30
31
32
34
34
35
36
36
38
47
40
10
M
0
Community
1
HESA does not accept responsibility for any inferences or conclusions derived from the data by third parties
It has been possible to create trends over recent years based on three-year average
rates at a community level, although the participation rates are subject to the same
caveats as above. At a national level, there has been a rise from 31.7% to 34.4% and
rises have also occurred across many of the West of Scotland communities, including
many of the more deprived communities (Figure 5.9). The graph shows trends for
selected communities. The majority of ‘below average participation’ communities
have shown a rise, although in one, Clydebank & Drumchapel, the rate appears to
have fallen. Despite general increases in rates of participation in Higher Education,
there does not appear to be any narrowing of the gap between the traditionally ‘high
participation’ communities of Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie and Eastwood and
the rates in less affluent communities.
Figure 5.9
Trends in estimated new student participation rates in Higher Education, 3 year rolling
average rates, 1998/00 - 2001/03, selected West of Scotland communities
Source: Calculated from data supplied by HESA
1
80
Eastwood
Estimated participation rate per 100 population
70
Anniesland, Bearsden
and Milngavie
Scotland
60
West of Scotland
50
Inverclyde
40
Motherwell
30
Eastern Glasgow
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
South West Glasgow
20
10
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
0
1998/00
1
1999/01
2000/02
2001/03
HESA does not accept responsibility for any inferences or conclusions derived from the data by third parties
115
At a postcode sector level, the caveats about the accuracy of estimated participation
rates are even more pertinent. Nevertheless, bearing this in mind, the comparison of
the ten highest participation areas (postcode sectors) with the ten lowest participation
areas produces striking results (see Figure 5.10). The ten areas of lowest participation
all have rates of below 10%, while, in the highest participation areas, rates of
participation are above 80%. While there may be considerable inaccuracy in the
estimated rates for individual areas, the overall pattern is clear. There are parts of the
West of Scotland where a university education is the ‘norm’ for the majority of young
people, while, at the other extreme, there remain many other areas where only a small
minority of pupils would be expected to go on to this level of education.
Figure 5.10
Estimated new student participation rates in Higher Education, annual average, 2001/0203/04 Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
82.4
81.8
82.7
82.9
84.7
85.0
86.2
89.8
94.3
98.9
80
60
34.4
40
20
5.5
4.3
4.2
4.0
7.5
7.1
6.6
6.1
5.9
5.5
ea
M
ll;
irk
hi
D
oo
-K
ie
ga
v
M
iln
m
Sk
el
nf
rn
oo
s
ey
t;
Al
st
on
lo
w
e;
Be
ay
D
ar
ou
sd
ga
en
ls
to
-K
n
i lm
ar
di
nn
y
Ki
H
lm
yn
ac
dl
an
ol
m
d;
D
ow
an
hi
ll
G
if f
no
ck
H
illh
ea
d
D
um
br
ec
k
rth
ie
ga
m
Br
oo
or
lie
;M
ei
g
le
;K
;A
R
uc
he
n
W
uc
ha
z
e
ile
se
ou
st
er
h
E
Br
id
ge
to
n
Pa
Pe
n
Ea
rk
ll
Fe
r
gu
sl
ie
N
its
hi
ll
E
nh
i
ilt
o
W
lN
ap
e
am
H
ch
ru
m
D
pe
l
tla
D
ru
m
ch
a
Sc
o
G
ov
an
0
Postcode sector
1
1
100
nd
Estimated participation rate per 100 population
Source: Calculated from data supplied by HESA
120
HESA does not accept responsibility for any inferences or conclusions derived from the data by third parties
5.2 Vulnerable households
This section focuses on levels and distributions of lone parent and lone pensioner
households across the West of Scotland.
Lone parents vi
In 2001, lone parent households made up 25% of all households with children.
Across the West of Scotland communities (see Figure 5.11), this measure varies from
13% in Eastwood and 14% in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie to 49% and 50%,
respectively, in Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow and in Bridgeton &
Dennistoun.
vi
It should be noted that the measure described in this section – lone parent households with dependent
children taken as a percentage of all households with dependent children – is slightly different to that
used to describe lone parent households in the household projections section of Chapter 3: Population
and life expectancy.
116
Figure 5.11
Lone parent households with dependent children, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
53
49
50.0
40.0
37
30.0
25
18
20.0
13
20
21
20
22
22
24
25
28
26
28
28
29
29
30
30
31
37
41
40
34
14
10.0
Sc
ot
la
/B
Ea nd
ea
rs
st
de
w
oo
n/
d
M
iln
ga
St
vi
e
ra
th
ke
lv
C
in
ly
de
sd
R
E
en
al
as
e
fre
t
w
S o Kilb
&
r
u
i
d
th
W
es
Ay e
tR
rs
hi
en
fre re
Ea wsh
ir
st
Ay e
rs
hi
r
Lo e
m
C
on
um
d
be
rn
au
l
d
H
am
ilt
Ai
on
rd
W
rie
is
&
ha
C
w
oa
tb
rid
ge
M
ot
he
N
rw
or
th
e
Pa
Ay ll
is
rs
le
h
y
ire
In
an
C
ve
am
d
rc
Le
bu
ve lyde
sl
an
rn
g
Va
&
ll e
R
G
y
u
re
th
at
er
er
gl
en
Sh
G
la
aw
sg
la
ow
nd
W
s
Ea
es
st
t
er
En
So
n
d
ut
G
h
la
So Eas sgo
w
t
u
G
C
th
la
ly
M
W
de
ar
es sgo
yh
ba
w
tG
ill/
nk
la
W
&
sg
oo
ow
ds Dru
m
id
Br
ch
e
&
id
ap
ge
N
el
to
G
n
la
sg
&
D
en ow
ni
st
ou
n
0.0
An
n
ie
sl
a
nd
% of all households with dependent children
Source: 2001 Census
60.0
Community
At a postcode sector level, the variations across the West of Scotland are even more
pronounced (Figure 5.12). In the ten areas with the lowest rates, the percentage of
lone parent households varies from 6%-10%, while in the ten areas with the highest
rates the percentage of lone parent households varies from 59%-70%. All ten areas
with the highest rates are in Glasgow.
Figure 5.12
Lone parent households with dependent children, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
70
70.0
59
60.0
59
59
59
61
61
61
62
62
50.0
40.0
30.0
25
20.0
10.0
6
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
10
10
0.0
Be
Sc
ot
la
nd
ar
H
sd
ow
e
w
n
Bi
oo
-K
sh
d
op
es
br
si
ng
ig
gs
to
n
N
;C
ad
Be
de
ar
r
sd
G
en
iff
n
oc
-K
k
ilm
ar
di
nn
y
C
at
hc
ar
t
D
um
br
ec
k
C
C
um
la
rk
be
s
rn
to
Ki
au
n
lm
ld
ar
Vi
n
lla
oc
ge
k
;D
ul
la
tu
G
r
le
n
Ea
Fr
st
ui
er
n
ho
us
e
Br
W
id
ge
to
n
D
E
al
m
ar
no
C
ck
as
tle
m
ilk
E
Tr
ad
G
es
ov
to
an
n;
G
or
ba
H
ls
am
ilt
D
on
ru
hi
m
ll
ch
ap
el
N
Pa
E
rk
he
ad
S
To
w
nh
ea
d
% of all households with dependent children
Source: 2001 Census
80.0
Postcode Sector
Household projections, commented on already in Chapter 3: Population and life
expectancy, predict that the proportion of lone parent households will increase, and in
Glasgow it is predicted that lone parent households will become almost as common as
households with two adults and children (48% in 2016).
117
Lone pensioners
Nationally, lone pensioner households made up 15% of all households in Scotland in
2001. Across West of Scotland communities (see Figure 5.13), this measure varies
from 12% in Cumbernauld to 17% in South West Glasgow, but for most communities
is close to the national average.
Figure 5.13
Lone pensioner households, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
20
18
% of all households
16
15
14
12
13
13
14
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
17
17
17
17
12
10
8
6
4
2
C
Sc
o
um tlan
d
be
R
r
en
St nau
fre
ra
ld
w
th
k
&
W Eas elv
es
t K in
tR
i
lb
Ai
rd enf ride
rie
re
w
&
C shir
oa
e
tb
rid
H ge
am
ilt
o
Lo n
m
on
C
Pa
ly
de d
is
le
sd
y
an Mo ale
t
d
Le her
w
ve
rn ell
Va
lle
W y
is
h
G
Ea a w
re
at
e r stw
Sh oo
d
a
An
Ea wla
ni
es
nd
G
st
la
la
Ay s
nd sg
rs
o
/B
ea w W hire
rs
de e s t
En
n
Ea /M
iln d
s
ga
So ter
n
vi
ut
e
G
h
Ea l as
go
st
C
w
am
M
G
l
ar
N
o r asg
yh bus
th
o
ill/
l
Ay w
W ang
oo
rs
&
hi
ds
R
r
ut
id
he e
e
&
rg
N
le
C
n
G
ly
la
de
sg
ba
o
I
nv
nk
w
er
&
c
D
ru lyde
m
Br
S
c
id
ge out hap
h
to
Ay el
n
rs
So &
h
D
ut
e n ire
h
ni
W
es sto
t G un
la
sg
ow
0
Community
Greater variation is apparent at a postcode sector level (see Figure 5.14). In the ten
areas with the lowest percentages of lone pensioners, only 4-8% of all households
were occupied by lone pensioners, while in the ten sectors with the highest
percentages of lone pensioners, 25-36% of households were lone pensioner
households (Figure 5.14). In the latter areas the high proportion of lone pensioners is
related to the high proportion of elderly living in the area. It is also known that in
some areas, for example, Knightswood and Mosspark, many residents bought their
houses from the Council and have remained in the area for much of their adult lives,
and that this may contributed to the older age structure in these areas.
118
Figure 5.14
Lone pensioner households, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
40
36
35
% of all households
30
25
25
25
25
25
26
26
28
29
29
20
15
15
10
6
5
6
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
4
C
um
ie
en
tra
l
id
dr
C
R
oc
k
G
re
en
illp
or
t
w
ra
nh
ig
ea
to
d
n;
M
os
sp
ar
k
M
To
C
be
rn
au
ld
Sc
ot
Vi
la
lla
nd
ge
;D
ul
la
tu
W
r
em
ys
s
Ba
y
Ke
lv
in
gr
ov
e
H
ou
st
on
G
le
n
F
ru
Pe
in
rc
et
on
Bo
H
illh
;S
nh
ea
ou
ill;
d
rli
Ja
e;
m
D
e
st
ou
o
ra
w
;R
n
od
di
ng
hi
ll
Bl
ac
kh
ill
St
ra
th
bu
Kn
ng
o
ig
M
ht
iln
sw
ga
oo
vi
d
e
S
-K
ey
st
La
on
rg
e;
s
D
ou
ga
ls
to
n
Pa
rk
ho
Kn
us
e
ig
ht
sw
oo
d
N
0
Postcode sector
Projections of lone pensioner households are not available. However, given the
projected increases in the elderly population in most West of Scotland councils and
predicted increases in single adult households, it seems likely that lone pensioner
households will also continue to rise.
5.3 Social capital
In this section various measures of social capital are presented, mainly for the Greater
Glasgow area as a whole, but also broken down by deprivation. The data presented
are taken from the 2002 Greater Glasgow Health and Well-being Survey 3,vii . The
measures included are: civic engagement, reciprocity, trust, membership, feelings of
isolation, volunteering, and perception of area as a place to live and bring up children.
The final part of the section describes patterns and trends in voter turnout and
attitudes to voting.
Civic engagement
Figures 5.15 and 5.16 present two measures of civic engagement: first, whether
respondents had undertaken any ‘responsibilities’ in terms of being a committee
member/event organiser/fund-raiser etc. in the previous three years (Figure 5.15), and,
second, whether respondents had taken any actions to solve a local problem in the
previous three years (Figure 5.16). In both cases, the proportion of respondents to
whom this applied was small: 7% and 11% respectively. In both cases, the
proportions within the three deprivation groupings used in the analysis differed
significantly: respondents in the less deprived areas were more likely to have been a
committee member etc. (11%), while those in the more deprived areas were more
likely to have taken action to address a local problem (13%).
vii
Comparisons with figures from a previous survey in 1998 are made where significant changes in
results have been noted.
119
Figure 5.15
Civic Engagement: % of respondents with 'civic responsibilities'
(e.g. committee/school board member) in previous 3 years
Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
12
10.9
10
8.5
8
%
7.0
6
4.6
4
2
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
Figure 5.16
Civic Engagement: % of respondents having taken action to
solve local problem in previous 3 years
Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
14
12
13.1
11.4
10.2
10
8.6
%
8
6
4
2
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
Reciprocity
Figure 5.17 presents a measure of ‘reciprocity’ – the proportion of respondents who
feel that neighbours look out for each other in their local area. The figure for all
Greater Glasgow is 66%, with significant differences between those living in the least
deprived areas (76%) and those in most deprived (60%).
120
Figure 5.17
Reciprocity: % of respondents who think neighbours 'look out for each other'
Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
100
90
80
76.0
71.8
66.6
70
59.7
%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
Trust
Figure 5.18 shows the proportion of respondents who believe that people can be
trusted in their local area. Overall 69% of respondents believed this was the case, but
the proportions were significantly higher in the less deprived areas (82%) than in the
more deprived (59%).
Figure 5.18
% of respondents believing people can be trusted in local area
Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
90
82.5
80
70
75.5
68.6
58.9
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
121
Membership
Membership of clubs, organisations etc. is a frequently used proxy for social
networking or social capital. Figure 5.19 shows the results from the 2002 NHSGG
Health and Well-being Survey. One in five respondents were members of clubs or
other such organisations, with significant differences between the least deprived
(25%) and most deprived (16%) areas.
Figure 5.19
Social networks: % of respondents belonging to clubs,
associations, church groups etc.
Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
100
90
80
70
%
60
50
40
30
25.1
23.2
20.1
16.2
20
10
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
Figure 5.20 shows that between the 1999 and 2002 surveys there was a significant
decrease in the numbers of respondents who were members of such
clubs/organisations, with the total for all Greater Glasgow falling from 30% to 20%.
Figure 5.20
Social networks: % of respondents belonging to clubs,
associations, church groups etc.
Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 1999 and 2002
100
1999
90
2002
80
70
%
60
50
37.4
40
37.1
30.2
30
25.1
23.2
20.1
23.7
16.2
20
10
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
122
Isolation
Figure 5.21 shows the proportion of respondents who feel isolated from friends and
family. Overall, 15% of respondents fall into this category, but there are again
significant differences across the three deprivation groups, ranging from just 8% in
the least deprived areas to 18% in the most deprived. For the whole of Greater
Glasgow, the proportion of respondents feeling isolated is down slightly (but
significantly) from the 1999 survey.
Figure 5.21
% of respondents feeling isolated from family & friends
Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
20
18.3
18
16
14.8
14
13.2
12
10
8.1
8
6
4
2
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
Volunteering
The proportion of Greater Glasgow respondents who said they “act as a volunteer” is
shown in Figure 5.22. According to the 2002 survey, only 7% fell into this category,
although the figure in the least deprived areas was significantly higher at 11%. There
was little difference in the overall responses between the 1999 and 2002 surveys.
However, the Scottish Household Survey asked a related, but slightly different,
question around the same time (2001/02), which showed that around 21% of
respondents within Glasgow City had volunteered in the previous 12 months.
123
Figure 5.22
Civic engagement: % of respondents volunteering
Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
14
12
11.3
10
8
7.3
%
6.6
5.9
6
4
2
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
Perception of the local area
Perception of the local area is relevant to – and is quoted within – Chapter 6: Physical
environment. However, overall perception of a neighbourhood as a place to live
(Figure 5.23) and a place to bring up children (Figure 5.24) is also relevant to the
notions of social capital and social connectedness.
Figure 5.23
% of respondents with a positive perception of their local area as a place to live
Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
100
91.7
90
79.8
80
72.8
70
61.1
%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
124
Figure 5.24
% of respondents with positive perception of local area as
a place to bring up children
Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
100
88.8
90
80
73.1
70
64.4
%
60
49.5
50
40
30
20
10
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
As can be seen from these charts, the majority of respondents in 2002 viewed their
areas in a positive light (73%). However, the figures were markedly, and
significantly, higher in the more affluent parts of Greater Glasgow, where 92%
viewed their area in this way (the corresponding figure for the most deprived areas
was 60%). Similarly, a large 'deprivation effect' is also visible in terms of the
proportions of respondents who have a positive perception of their local area as a
place to bring up children. Although 64% fell into this category overall, in the most
deprived areas the figure was less than 50%, and in the least deprived it was almost
90%. There was little change in either measure between the 1999 and 2002 surveys.
Voter turnout
Voter turnout in the 2003 Scottish Parliamentary election was 49%. Figure 5.25
shows how this varied at a constituency level (from 35% in Glasgow Shettleston to
58% in Eastwood).
125
W
Ay
rs
hi
56
re
re
83
th
sh
i
56
w
hi
re
83
N
or
fre
rs
ire
50
Ay
sh
re
81
Ea
st
R
en
rto
n
sh
i
80
So
ut
h
un
ba
53
re
w
ire
52
Ea
st
D
sh
e
80
en
f
to
n
yd
80
R
ar
cl
46
50
un
b
80
In
ve
r
re
51
ire
rk
sh
i
re
80
tD
La
na
rk
sh
i
think voting is important
Ea
st
Ay
rs
h
h
50
La
na
81
So
ut
49
th
80
N
or
60
C
it y
81
ow
e
d
90
sg
Av
er
ag
la
n
%
la
s
G
go
G
la
w
Sc
Sh ot la
nd
e
la sgo ttle
sg w st
o w M on
S ar
G p yh
G las ring ill
la
sg gow bur
ow
K n
G B el
G la aill vin
la sg ie
s g o st
ow w on
G
o
A
Ai nn va
rd ie n
rie sla
H
a & nd
G m il S ho
l
t
C asg on tts
un o
S
ni w C ou
ng
th
ha at h
C
ca
o G m
H atb las e S rt
am r i g
o
ilt dge ow uth
on
Po
&
l
N
G or C hr l o k
la th
ys
s
M go & B ton
ot w
he R ell s
rw uth hil
l
el
l & erg
C
le
um
Pa Wi n
be
s
rn isle haw
au y
ld N o
r
Pa & K th
i s ils
Ki
l e yt
lm
y
h
S
a
G rno Cly o u
re
de th
c
e
k
C noc & L s da
ly
de k & ou l e
b a I n do
C nk ver un
un &
c
ni M lyd
n g iln e
C
ar
h a ga
ric
m vi e
k,
e
C
D No
um
um rt
no E
b h
ck as art
t K on
&
W
i
e s Doo l b r i
t R n de
e n Va
St
ra
fre lle
th
w y
ke
sh
lv
ire
in
&
Be Ay
ar r
E a sde
st n
w
oo
d
G
% turnout
40%
G
la
of
Sc
ot
la
nd
Sc
ot
50%
W
es
es
t
Figure 5.25
Voter turnout by constituency, 2003 Scottish Parliamentary Elections
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow constituencies
70%
Source: NHSHS Constituency Profiles
60%
58%
49%
35%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Constituency
Figure 5.26 presents those figures at a council level and contrasts them with the
proportion of respondents in the 2001/02 Scottish Household Survey who said they
believed voting to be important. Thus we see that, for example, in Glasgow, although
74% of adults apparently believe it is important to vote, only 41% did so in the 2003
elections.
Figure 5.26
% Adults who think voting is important (2001-2002) vs. Electoral turnout (2003)
West of Scotland council areas
100
Source: SHHS/SNS; Electoral Commission
2003 turnout
86
86
70
74
51
58
41
49
40
30
20
10
0
Council
126
Figure 5.27 shows the trend in voter turnout at general elections from 1945 onwards
for Scotland as a whole and for Glasgow constituenciesviii . Despite dropping from the
high levels of the early 1950s, turnout remained above 70% up to, and including, the
1992 election. However, in subsequent elections turnout dropped sharply to 58%
nationally in 2001 and to 50% in Glasgow. Despite a slight rise in 2005, there is
broad agreement, from this evidence and that of other elections, that the general
public has become less inclined to vote. Figure 5.27 also, perhaps, suggests that this
has become a progressively more prominent trend in Glasgow than nationally.
Figure 5.27
Voter Turnout in Westminster General Elections, 1945-2005
Glasgow Constituencies & Scotland
Sources: UK Election Statistics; Political Guide to Modern Scotland
90
80
70
% turnout
60
50
40
30
20
Scotland
Glasgow Average
10
0
1945
1950
1951
1955
1959
1964
1966
1970
1974
1974
1979
1983
1987
1992
1997
2001
2005
5.4 Crime
At the start of this section, recorded crime levels and trends in recorded crime (for a
range of crimes) at a council level are presented. Following on from this, crime
patterns within Glasgow are described. There is a particular focus on violent crime
within Glasgow and related figures on domestic abuse and hospital discharges after an
assault are also reported. Two final sub-sections comment briefly on imprisonment
rates and fear of crime.
viii
Due to numerous changes in constituency boundaries over the period, the trend for Glasgow should
be considered as very approximate.
127
Recorded crime levels
In 2004/05 over 430,000 crimes were recorded ix in Scotland 4 , 44% of the Scottish
total occurring in the West of Scotland and 18% in Glasgow City. Glasgow City has
the highest overall crime rate among councils in Scotland. Within the West of
Scotland, Glasgow has the highest rates for a range of crime types including nonsexual crimes of violence, crimes of indecency, crimes of dishonesty, serious assaults,
crimes involving offensive weapons and domestic housebreaking (See Tables 5.1 and
5.2).
Table 5.1
Number of crimes recorded by the police per 10,000 population and crime index, West of Scotland council
areas, 2004/05
Source: Scottish Executive
Rate and Index
Fire - raising,
vandalism, Other crimes
etc.
Council area
Non - sexual
crimes of
violence
Crimes of
indecency
Crimes of
dishonesty
Scotland
Glasgow City
29
78
14
34
414
589
253
334
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
South Lanarkshire
South Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
North Lanarkshire
North Ayrshire
Renfrewshire
Inverclyde
West Dunbartonshire
16
17
27
24
31
27
28
35
39
48
3
3
7
10
11
11
12
10
7
11
209
217
265
311
341
315
339
476
411
413
190
206
235
234
256
260
288
246
285
356
Total crimes
Index
(Scotland
=100)
152
315
863
1,350
100
157
82
66
146
114
130
168
156
126
231
203
500
509
680
692
770
782
823
892
974
1,032
58
59
79
80
89
91
95
103
113
120
Table 5.2
Number of crimes recorded by the police and rate per 10,000 population for selected crimes, West of Scotland council area,
2004/05
Source: Scottish Executive
Rate per 10,000 population
Number
Council area
Serious
assault
Offensive
weapons
Scotland
Glasgow City
6,775
2,187
9,545
3,184
23,613
4,004
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
South Lanarkshire
South Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
North Lanarkshire
North Ayrshire
Renfrewshire
Inverclyde
West Dunbartonshire
101
70
442
157
240
441
215
298
194
219
118
123
641
107
218
632
297
380
308
290
315
374
1,065
327
584
1,223
653
1,026
495
482
All crimes
Serious
assault
Offensive
weapons
119,855
17,265
438,093
78,014
13
38
19
55
46
69
236
299
1,842
1,749
6,765
2,487
2,806
7,686
3,652
3,855
2,095
2,955
5,325
4,561
20,775
7,741
9,214
25,227
11,200
15,223
8,027
9,491
9
8
14
14
20
14
16
17
24
24
11
14
21
10
18
20
22
22
37
32
30
42
35
29
49
38
48
60
60
52
173
195
222
222
234
238
268
226
254
321
Domestic
1
Vandalism
housebreaking
Domestic
1
Vandalism
housebreaking
1. Includes vandalism, malicious damage and malicious mischief only.
In contrast, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire have overall crime rates that
are approximately one third of the Glasgow rate (Figure 5.28).
ix
It should be noted that the reported crime level for many crime types is a considerable underestimate
of the true crime level, as many crimes are not reported to the police.
128
Figure 5.28
Index of overall crime rate per 10,000 population, West of Scotland council areas,
2004/05
Source: Scottish Executive
180
157
160
Index (Scotland = 100)
140
120
113
120
103
100
100
80
59
58
60
95
91
89
80
79
40
20
re
e
ns
hi
cl
yd
un
ba
In
rto
ve
r
sh
fre
w
en
W
es
tD
R
N
N
La
th
or
or
th
rk
sh
na
Ay
rs
ire
Ay
rs
hi
re
ire
re
hi
re
Ea
st
So
na
La
h
So
ut
ut
h
rk
sh
Ay
rs
hi
ire
re
fre
en
Ea
st
R
Ea
st
D
G
un
la
ba
sg
rto
ow
w
ns
hi
C
la
Sc
ot
sh
i
re
ity
nd
0
Council
Recorded crime trends
Using slightly older data (for the period 1997-2003 x ) a comparison of crime trends
within the West of Scotland council areas can be made. The rate of ‘serious violent
crime’, which includes murder, serious assault, robbery, rape and attempted rape, rose
by 19% between 1997 and 2003 across Scotland, and rose even more sharply in North
Ayrshire, West Dunbartonshire and Glasgow (Figure 5.29). Glasgow has the highest
prevalence rate for this type of crime, followed by West Dunbartonshire. In contrast,
in East Dunbartonshire a 33% reduction in this type of crime was recorded over the
same period.
x
Trends by council for more recent years than 2003 have not been published.
129
Figure 5.29
Serious Violent Crime per 10,000 population, 1997 vs 2003
West of Scotland council areas
Source: SNS
100
88
90
1997
2003
Crimes per 10,000 population
80
68
70
60
52
50
37
40
40
46
39
33
32
30
43
27
20
27 25
25 23
21
26
26
22
19 19
25
21
14
10
re
W
es
t
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
cl
yd
e
In
ve
r
w
sh
ire
R
en
th
fre
Ay
rs
Ay
rs
hi
h
N
or
Ea
So
So
ut
st
Ay
r
na
La
ut
h
hi
re
re
re
sh
i
re
rk
sh
i
rk
sh
i
La
th
N
or
Ea
st
Ea
na
R
en
f re
ba
st
D
un
G
la
re
re
w
sh
i
re
ns
hi
rto
sg
o
w
Sc
ot
la
nd
C
ity
0
Council
Rates of domestic housebreaking reduced by 32%, nationally, over the same period
and by 25-50% in most of the West of Scotland councils (Figure 5.30).
Figure 5.30
Domestic Housebreaking per 10,000 population, 1997 vs 2003
West of Scotland council areas
Source: SNS
160
153
1997
140
Crimes per 10,000 population
121
2003
119
120
110
100
87
81
80
72
71
62
60
65
63
61
57
49
60
62
63
64
66
48
40
42
37
34
33
20
th
or
N
In
ve
rc
ly
de
rs
Ay
ut
h
So
Ay
rs
hi
Ea
re
st
R
en
fre
w
W
sh
es
ire
tD
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
Ea
st
Ay
rs
hi
re
R
en
fre
w
sh
ire
re
hi
re
na
rk
ut
h
So
th
or
N
La
La
ba
rto
un
Ea
st
D
sh
i
na
rk
sh
ire
ns
hi
re
ity
C
w
go
la
s
G
Sc
ot
la
nd
0
Council
‘Fire-raising, vandalism etc.’ rates rose by 25% in Scotland. In parts of the West of
Scotland, such as Inverclyde, there were even steeper rises (Figure 5.31). This
increase partly reflects improved recording of minor incidents of such crimes by
Scottish police forces.
130
Figure 5.31
'Fire-raising,vandalism etc.' per 10,000 population, 1997 vs 2003
West of Scotland council areas
Source: SNS
300
272
Crimes per 10,000 population
1997
247
250
244
184
159
172
168
154
155
151
144
150
131
128
126
118
113117
199
199
188
198
200
267
2003
126
94
100
50
ns
hi
re
un
ba
In
rto
ve
w
sh
i
fre
W
es
tD
N
R
en
or
th
rc
ly
de
re
re
Ay
rs
hi
rk
sh
ire
La
na
ar
ks
hi
re
N
So
ut
or
th
h
h
So
ut
Ea
st
Ea
Ea
La
n
Ay
rs
hi
re
rs
hi
re
st
fre
R
en
ba
r
st
D
un
Ay
w
sh
ire
re
to
ns
hi
C
w
G
la
sg
o
Sc
ot
la
nd
ity
0
Council
Perhaps, the most concerning trends are those for drug related crimes, which rose by
38% nationally over the six years up to 2003. Many of the individual West of
Scotland councils had even greater rises (Figure 5.32). Glasgow stands out as having
a rate that is more than double the national average.
Figure 5.32
Drug related crime per 10,000 population, 1997 vs 2003
West of Scotland council areas
Source: SNS
200
175
180
1997
2003
140
100
98
92
80
80
60
125
121
118
120
49
49
43
39
35
40
26
74
57
50
45
79
77
76
70
65
58
25
20
e
rc
ly
d
ve
In
un
b
ar
to
ns
hi
re
ar
ks
hi
re
tD
W
es
N
or
th
La
n
La
na
h
So
ut
Ay
or
th
N
rk
sh
ire
rs
hi
re
re
st
Ea
fre
en
R
Ay
w
sh
i
rs
hi
re
rs
hi
re
h
So
ut
ba
r
un
D
Ay
re
to
ns
hi
w
sh
ire
Ea
st
Ea
st
G
R
en
fre
la
sg
o
w
C
nd
ity
0
Sc
ot
la
Crimes per 10,000 population
160
Council
131
Crime patterns within Glasgow
The data used in this analysis were provided from the Strathclyde Police Corporate
Database for the fiscal year 2004/05 and only cover the Glasgow City area. The
crime types included within this analysis were disorder, vandalism, vehicle crime and
housebreaking. All the crimes were assigned to the postcode sector in which the
crime occurred and analysed as rates per 1,000 resident population at a postcode
sector level across Glasgow City.
Crimes of vandalism
The city centre has the highest rate of crimes of vandalism. However if the city centre
is excluded, a wide variation in the levels of vandalism per head of population can
still be observed across the city, varying from 10-18 per 1,000 in the lowest rate areas
to 52-74 in the highest rate areas (Figure 5.33). An association with deprivation is
clear. The areas with the highest rates of vandalism are notably amongst the most
deprived in the city, while the opposite is true of those areas with the lowest rates of
vandalism.
Figure 5.33
Crimes of Vandalism per 1,000 population, 2004/05
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
Glasgow
Sources: Strathclyde Police Corporate Database & 2001 Census
160
142
Rate per 1,000 population
140
120
100
72
80
60
40
20
52
54
55
74
74
60
60
59
32
10
10
11
12
12
13
14
16
16
18
Ib
ro
C
x
as
tle
m
ilk
E
C
ity
C
en
tre
N
n;
G
or
ba
ls
n
ov
a
ea
d
Tr
ad
es
to
G
Pa
rk
h
C
al
Ki
to
nn
n
in
g
Pa
rk
S
N
its
hi
ll
uc
ha
zi
e
R
G
la
s
go
w
Pa
rti
ck
hi
ll
Ke
lv
in
N
H
Br
yn
oo
Po
dl
m
an
llo
hi
d;
ks
ll
D
hi
ow
el
ds
a
nh
;B
ill
el
Ke
la
lv
ho
in
us
da
to
le
n
;K
el
vi
ns
id
e
N
ew
la
nd
s
Ki
ng
sp
ar
k
D
um
br
ec
Ba
k
illi
es
to
n
N
0
Postcode sector
Crimes of disorder
The prevalence of crimes of disorder varies greatly across the city. In 2004/05 in the
ten postcode sectors with the highest rates, the rate varied from over 100 disorder
crimes per 1,000 residents to over 1200 (Figure 5.34). The latter was in the city
centre, and clearly reflects the large numbers of people socialising there in the
evenings and at the weekend. The ten areas with the lowest rates of this crime tend to
be in more affluent parts of Glasgow.
132
Figure 5.34
Crimes of Disorder per 1,000 population, 2004/05
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
Glasgow
Sources: Strathclyde Police Corporate Database & 2001 Census
1400
1214
Rate per 1,000 population
1200
1000
800
600
400
305
200
14
13
10
18
15
22
21
19
151
147
137
133
132
119
118
66
171
24
23
tre
ls
C
to
n
ity
;G
C
or
w
do
ea
Tr
ad
es
M
en
ba
si
d
ea
Pa
rk
h
el
hi
Po
llo
ks
Ke
de
N
E
S
d
to
n
ge
Br
id
in
Pa
r
g
kh
Pa
ea
S
Ib
ro
x
rk
N
ll
hi
Ki
nn
G
ov
an
uc
R
es
Ba
ll
hi
N
N
to
n
vi
n
Ke
l
illi
pl
us
to
ho
la
el
hi
ds
;B
rd
Jo
lv
in
n
e
N
Te
ll;
Yo
an
le
da
an
dl
yn
H
m
ke
r
id
el
vi
;K
Br
o
ns
om
hi
e
ll
s
k
la
ew
N
um
d;
D
D
nd
hi
br
an
sg
ow
la
G
ec
ll
ow
0
Postcode sector
Vehicle crime
While the level of vehicle crime varied widely across the city in 2004/05, and was
particularly high in the city centre, it is difficult to observe a pattern related to
deprivation (Figure 5.35). The areas with the lowest rates of vehicle crime are a
mixture of deprived and more affluent areas, although the areas with the highest rates
of vehicle crime are (with the exception of the city centre) noticeably more deprived
than average.
Figure 5.35
Vehicle Crimes per 1,000 population, 2004/05
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
Glasgow
Sources: Strathclyde Police Corporate Database & 2001 Census
140
129
100
81
80
60
40
40
36
33
28
26
53
50
47
14
20
4
3
5
4
5
5
6
5
5
5
t re
C
ity
C
to
n
;G
or
en
ba
ls
S
rk
W
Pa
in
g
Tr
ad
Ki
nn
es
x
ro
to
n
ge
Ib
Br
id
Pa
r
kh
ea
d
N
an
ov
E
an
dl
C
G
to
n
n
ni
en
D
ge
en
ds
Br
id
;C
st
ou
s
ll
ow
ca
R
Pe
n
ht
ig
dd
e
ile
d
oo
uc
hi
N
n
m
m
sw
k
er
st
o
Pa
r
n
in
ro
Su
ot
;L
ftf
o
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N
k
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ke
r
ng
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ng
illi
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rk
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irc
us
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do
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ld
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s
N
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sp
to
ar
n
ll
hi
m
Br
oo
te
r
ho
la
sg
us
e
ow
E
0
G
Rate per 1,000 population
120
Postcode sector
133
Housebreaking
The areas that had the highest rates of housebreaking in 2004/05 were quite mixed
socio-economically and, perhaps surprisingly, the areas with the lowest rates of
housebreaking tended to be among the most deprived (Figure 5.36).
Figure 5.36
Housbreaking Crimes per 1,000 population, 2004/05
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
Glasgow
Sources: Strathclyde Police Corporate Database & 2001 Census
25
23
21
20
Rate per 1,000 population
20
15
13
16
16
15
15
15
14
10
7
5
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
ls
tre
ba
or
;G
C
ity
C
es
to
n
Tr
ad
el
;B
ds
el
ks
hi
en
us
to
la
H
ho
illh
ea
n
d
ve
an
ro
vi
ng
ds
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ov
s
w
an
dl
ks
ha
oo
llo
W
Po
Ke
l
llo
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C
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r
ar
tD
do
un
na
da
s;
ill
Ib
ro
x
ie
ss
h
C
ro
ch
E
to
n
am
la
C
to
n
ge
Br
id
ld
N
st
e
;H
rh
o
us
illi
ng
e
W
W
n
el
ap
ch
m
ru
D
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al
to
ilk
m
tle
C
ck
lo
m
as
C
G
ar
th
a
W
er
st
on
ilk
m
m
m
Su
C
as
G
tle
la
sg
ow
0
Postcode sector
Violent crime patterns within Glasgow
Data were supplied by Strathclyde Police’s Violence Reduction Unit on the location
(by data zone xi ) of incidents of violent crime and the (data zone of) residence of
victims and perpetrators of violent crime covering a three-year period from July 2002
– June 2005 for Glasgow City. Offences that are classified as ‘violent offences’
include: murder, attempted murder, serious assault, simple assault and possession of
an offensive weapon.
Police intelligence records suggest that there were approximately 13,725 offenders
living in Glasgow City, who offended on at least one occasion in the three-year
period, July 2002-June 2005. There were substantially more male than female
offenders (10,743 vs. 2,982), a ratio of 3.6 males to one female. The age profile of
violent offenders is strongly skewed towards a peak offending age of 15/16 years
(Figure 5.37) xii . From this peak the numbers of male and female offenders drop
gradually with increasing age, although numbers of offenders remain high,
particularly for men, between late teenage years and mid twenties.
xi
Populations c600/700.
Please note that the column values for males and females in Figure 5.37 (and in subsequent similar
graphs – Figure 5.38, 5.40 and 5.41) are independent, not cumulative e.g. in Figure 5.37, the number
of 16 year old male offenders is 514 and the number of 16 year old female offenders is 168.
xii
134
Figure 5.37
Violent offenders by age and gender over a 3 year period, July 2002 - June 2005
Glasgow City
Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police
600
Female
Male
500
No. of Offenders
400
300
200
100
97
82
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
8
10
0
Age of offender
Rates of violent offenders by age and gender show similar patterns (Figure 5.38). It is
worth noting that rates of violent offenders among young males of 15 or 16 years
were double that of those aged 22 years. The equivalent rates for females, while
much lower, show an even sharper decline by age; the offending rate among 14 to 16
year old females was three times that for 22 year old women.
Figure 5.38
Violent offenders per 1,000 population by age and gender over a 3 year period, July 2002 June 2005, Glasgow City
Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police
160
Female (rate per 1000)
Male (rate per 1000)
120
100
80
60
40
20
82
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
0
8
Violent offenders per 1,000 population
140
Age of offender
135
A comparison of the geographic concentration of violent offenders within the
population – at a data zone level – shows a huge variation across the city (Figure
5.39). In the ten areas with the highest rates of residents who have committed a
violent offence, there are 60-100 offenders for every thousand residents while, in the
10 areas with the lowest rates of offenders, there are only 1-3 offenders per 1,000
residents xiii . The areas with low rates of offenders are generally more affluent but not
exclusively, while the areas with the highest rates of offenders are among the most
deprived in Glasgow. This is confirmed by a strong statistical correlation xiv at a data
zone level between deprivation (as measured by SIMD) and rates of offenders.
Figure 5.39
Violent offenders per 1,000 population over a 3 year period, July 2002 - June 2005
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
Glasgow City
Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police
120
100
Violent offenders per 1000 population
100
88
80
72
66
67
72
76
77
78
68
60
40
20
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
C
al
to
n
To
ry
gl
en
Q
ue
en
sl
Po
ie
llo
ks
ha
w
s
An
de
rs
to
n
R
oy
st
on
R
Kn
oy
ig
st
ht
on
sw
oo
d
Pa
rk
Ki
ng
st
on
Pa
rti
ck
N
ew
la
nd
s
H
ay
bu
Vi
rn
ct
or
ia
Pa
rk
C
ro
ok
st
on
G
ar
ro
w
hi
ll
G
ov
an
Jo
rd
an
hi
ll
Jo
rd
an
hi
ll
Jo
rd
an
hi
ll
N
ew
la
nd
s
0
Data zone (named after relevant electoral ward)
The distribution of victims of violent offences by age and gender is similar to that for
violent offenders (Figure 5.40). Victims are more likely to be male than female and
numbers of victims are highest in the age range 15-25.
xiii
It should be noted that ward names repeat on the graph where more than one data zone from the
same ward is present.
xiv 2
R = .77, where 0 would represent no correlation and 1 a perfect correlation.
136
Figure 5.40
Victims of violent offences by age and gender over a 3 year period, July 2002 - June 2005,
Glasgow City
Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police
600
Female
Male
500
No. of Victims
400
300
200
100
91
86
83
79
76
73
70
67
64
61
58
55
52
49
46
43
40
37
34
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
7
10
4
0
Age of victim
The chart of victim rates (Figure 5.41) by age shows that the peak age for a male or
female being a victim of a violent offence is fifteen. From this age the rate drops
steadily until the mid-twenties where it remains stable before dropping again around
forty.
Figure 5.41
Victims of violent offences per 1,000 population by age and gender over a 3 year period, July
2002 - June 2005, Glasgow City
Source: Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police
160
Female (rate per 1000)
Male (rate per 1000)
120
100
80
60
40
20
91
86
83
79
76
73
70
67
64
61
58
55
52
49
46
43
40
37
34
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
10
7
0
4
Victims of violent offences per 1,000 population
140
Age of victim
137
A comparison of the geographic concentration of victims of violence in Glasgow
(Figure 5.42) shows that in some data zones over one in ten people have been the
victim of a violent crime in the last three years, while at the other extreme in the ten
areas with the lowest rates of victims between five and 11 people per 1,000
population have been victims of violent crime. There is a strong correlation xv
between areas with high concentrations of victims of violent crime and deprivation (as
measured by SIMD at a data zone level).
Figure 5.42
Victims of violent crime per 1,000 population over a 3 year period, July 2002 - June 2005
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
Glasgow City
Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police
180
168
160
139
Victims per 1000 population
140
142
144
129
118
120
119
120
121
123
100
80
60
40
20
8
7
5
9
9
9
9
9
10
11
oc
k
el
lP
ar
Vi
k
ct
or
ia
Pa
rk
N
ew
la
nd
s
H
yn
dl
an
d
C
at
hc
ar
t
Pa
r ti
ck
H
yn
dl
an
d
An
de
rs
to
n
R
oy
st
on
Q
ue
en
sl
Po
ie
llo
ks
ha
w
Po
s
llo
ks
ha
w
s
R
oy
st
on
C
ow
la
irs
C
ow
la
irs
To
ry
gl
en
Ki
ng
st
on
un
n
ax
w
M
C
ar
m
yn
dl
H
Jo
rd
an
hi
ll
an
d
0
Data zone (named after relevant electoral ward)
Rates of violent incidents per 1,000 residents for data zones were also analysed. The
graph below (Figure 5.43) clearly shows that these offences tend to concentrate in
particular parts of the city centre, such as Anderston and Kingston.
xv
R2 = .71, where 0 would represent no correlation and 1 a perfect correlation.
138
Figure 5.43
Violent incidents per 1000 population over a 3 year period, July 2002 -June 2005
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
Glasgow City
Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police
4500
4118
Violent Incidents per 1000 population
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1786
1500
857
1000
500
316
0
1
3
5
4
3
5
5
5
353
612
600
536
518
464
5
rs
to
n
rs
to
n
An
de
rs
to
n
An
de
rs
to
n
An
de
ad
An
de
ro
ve
Pa
rk
he
oc
k
ar
n
m
Ke
lv
in
g
C
al
to
n
/D
al
Br
id
ge
to
n
nh
ill
nt
Ve
rn
on
Ki
ng
st
on
Ki
ng
st
on
M
ou
nd
nh
ill
Jo
rd
a
Jo
rd
a
yn
dl
a
la
nd
s
ew
H
la
nd
s
N
ew
N
Pa
rti
ck
Ke
lv
in
da
le
N
or
th
Ke
lv
in
R
ob
ro
ys
to
n
0
Data zone (named after relevant electoral ward)
Domestic abuse
Statistical reporting of incidents of domestic abuse by the police only started
relatively recently, in 1999. Since recording started a number of patterns have
become established (statistics quoted are based on 2004 national figures) 5 :
x
The majority of incidents involve a female victim and male perpetrator (88%).
x
Where information was available on whether or not the victim had previously
been reported as being a domestic abuse victim, 52% of the cases involved known
repeat victimisation.
x
Nearly 45% of incidents of domestic abuse recorded by the police involved cohabitees or spouses and in 32% of cases, the victim and perpetrator were expartners or ex-spouses.
x
The overwhelming majority of incidents of domestic abuse took place in the home
(91% of all incidents where the location was recorded).
The latest domestic abuse statistics show that across the West of Scotland (see Figure
5.44) rates of recorded incidents of domestic abuse vary hugely from 1,409 per
100,000 in West Dunbartonshire (64% above the Scottish average) to 364 per 100,000
in East Renfrewshire (58% below the Scottish average). The rate for Glasgow is the
second highest in the West of Scotland and is 56% above the Scottish average.
139
Figure 5.44
Domestic Abuse Incidents per 100,000 population, 2004
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Scottish Executive
1600
1,409
1,339
Rate per 100,000 population
1400
1200
1000
967
957
937
893
875
860
812
800
708
600
368
364
400
200
re
e
ns
hi
yd
rto
ve
rc
l
un
ba
In
W
es
tD
Ay
rs
hi
re
ire
ut
h
So
R
en
fre
w
rk
sh
na
La
th
or
N
sh
ire
re
tA
yr
sh
i
re
Ea
s
or
N
La
th
na
Ay
rs
rk
sh
hi
ire
ns
hi
re
th
So
u
un
ba
f re
en
tR
Ea
s
Ea
st
D
sg
la
G
rto
w
ow
Sc
ot
la
C
sh
ire
ity
nd
0
Council
Hospital discharges after an assaultxvi
There are approximately 6,000 hospital discharges after assault xvii in Scotland,
annually. Greater Glasgow, contributes disproportionately to this figure, accounting
for a quarter to a third of all such admissions within Scotland, while at a council level,
Glasgow City had the highest rates for males (see Figure 5.45) and females until
2003/04, when there was a large reduction; although, this drop is likely to be
artefactual, rather than a real reduction xviii .
xvi
Appendix 1 provides details of the diagnoses used to define assaults.
It is worth noting that these figures are based on discharges after inpatient or day case treatment in
hospital and do not include patients treated in accident and emergency departments who are not then
admitted. Thus, the figures clearly underestimate incidences of assault, although they are likely to be
less of an underestimate of assaults resulting in serious injury.
xviii
Changes in the organisation of the A&E receiving wards at Glasgow Royal have had a knock-on
effect on actual patient admissions and this may account for part of the drop in Glasgow City.
xvii
140
Figure 5.45
Assault discharges for males as a rate per 1,000 population, 1995/96 - 2003/2004
Selected West of Scotland council areas
Source: ISD Scotland
6
Rate per 1000 population
5
4
Glasgow City
North Ayrshire
3
Scotland
2
East Renfrewshire
1
East Dunbartonshire
0
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
Age and gender breakdowns of assault discharges highlight that males are far more
likely to be involved and that the rates are highest among young males with the peak
rates in the age ranges from 15-29. A comparison of assault discharges for males
between Glasgow City and Scotland (see Figure 5.46) shows that the rate in Glasgow
is consistently higher in each age band. For 15-19 year olds the rate was double the
Scottish rate in 2003/04 and was the highest among the West of Scotland councils.
Figure 5.46
Assault discharges per 1,000 population for males by age, 2003/2004
Comparison of Glasgow City rates to Scottish rates
Source: ISD Scotland
12.00
10.8
Scotland
Glasgow City
10.00
8.8
Rate per 1000
8.00
7.5
6.0
6.00
5.3
5.9
5.1
4.00
3.4
3.4
2.0
2.00
1.4
1.4
0.7
0.6
0.1 0.1
0.2 0.3
0.00
0-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 39
40 - 49
50 - 64
65+
Age Group
141
Among 20-24 year old males, the rates of discharge after assault were highest in
Inverclyde and North Ayrshire (11.8 and 13.8 per 1,000 population, respectively),
while, for 25-29 year old males, Inverclyde had the highest rates (16 per 1,000
population).
The diagnostic codes used to define assault include 25 separate diagnoses, but four
account for the majority of assaults. Across Scotland, ‘assault by bodily force’ is the
most commonly coded diagnosis accounting for nearly one in two cases, but in
Glasgow City (Figure 5.47) the pattern is different with ‘assault by (a) sharp object’
the most common cause shown (46% of all assaults).
Figure 5.47
Four main assault diagnoses as a percentage of all assault discharges, 2003/2004
Comparison of Glasgow City to Scotland
Source: ISD Scotland
97%
100%
Scotland
98%
Glasgow City
80%
60%
47%
46%
40%
25%
19%
20%
17%
12%
16%
12%
0%
Assault by sharp object
Assault by blunt object
Assault by bodily force
Assault by unspecified
means
Four categories as a % of
total assault discharges
Diagnosis
Repeat admissions with an assault diagnosis are relatively unusual. Just over 5% of
individuals were discharged more than once after an assault in 2003/04. While
multiple admissions after an assault are rare, these are clearly cases to cause concern.
Figure 5.48 highlights the numbers of persons admitted in the West of Scotland in
2003/04. It is notable five men had four assault admissions, while one woman had
six such admissions in the year xix .
xix
It should be noted that some of these multiple admissions may be readmissions for treatment of
injuries caused in one rather than many assault incidents.
142
Figure 5.48
Frequency of assault discharges by sex, 2003/2004
All West of Scotland Council areas
Source: ISD Scotland
3000
2729
Male
Female
2500
Number of persons
2000
1500
1000
500
338
138
10
18
1
5
0
0
1
0
One admission
Two admissions
Three admissions
Four admissions
Six admissions
Number of times admitted in year
Currently hospital discharge data do not record where an incident of assault occurred.
However, it is possible to look at where victims admitted to hospital after an assault
normally reside at a small area level. An analysis across the West of Scotland at a
postcode sector level shows large variations between low assault discharge rates for
populations in relatively affluent areas and the highest assault discharge rates
associated with people living in more deprived areas (Figure 5.49). The differences
are stark. The rates in the ten sectors with the highest rates are three to seven times
higher than the Scottish rate, while, in the ten areas with the lowest rates, rates are less
than a quarter of the Scottish rate. Although these rates are still based on small
numbers – in the sector with the highest rate the actual number of assault discharges
recorded in 2003/04 was 25 – taken collectively it is clear that people living in more
deprived areas suffer far higher levels of assaults that require overnight hospital
treatment.
143
Figure 5.49
Assault discharges, 3 year average rate per 1,000 population, 2001/02-03/04
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: ISD Scotland
10.0
9.2
9.0
8.0
Rate per 1,000
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.3
7.5
7.2
6.9
6.9
7.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.4
1.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
M
iln
to
n
n
E
Ki
n
gs
al
to
C
Ay
r
ga
Bi
vi
e
gg
a
r;
Le
ad
Br
id
g
Sc
et
on
ot
la
hi
-K
nd
lls
ey
;A
st
b
on
in
gt
e;
on
D
ou
ga
ls
to
n
H
H
yn
ow
dl
w
an
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d;
d
D
To
ow
rra
an
nc
hi
Be
ll
e;
ar
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sd
lm
en
o
-K
re
es
si
ng
to
W
Br
n
em
oo
m
ys
;K
s
Ba
irk
hi
y
ll;
M
ea
rn
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s
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lv
gl
in
es
da
ha
le
m
;K
el
vi
ns
id
e
R
uc
ha
H
ut
z
ch
ie
es
on
Ki
to
w
nn
n
in
g
Pa
rk
S
G
ar
ng
Fe
ad
rg
us
lie
Pa
rk
D
al
m
ar
no
ck
0.0
Postcode sector
Imprisonment rates
A recent report investigated imprisonment and social exclusion in Scotland 6 and this
section summarises a selection of the findings.
A comparison of imprisonment rates across the West of Scotland (Figure 5.50), as at
June 2003, shows that the lowest rates of imprisonment were in East Dunbartonshire
and East Renfrewshire, while the highest rates occurred in Inverclyde (five times the
rate in East Dunbartonshire) and Glasgow City (six times higher).
Figure 5.50
Imprisonment per 100,000 on 30th June 2003,
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Houghton, Glasgow Caledonian University
300
261
204
200
150
125
122
116
145
138
136
130
102
100
48
42
50
e
ve
r
In
Ay
rs
cl
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yd
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th
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en
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ity
nd
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Sc
o
Imprisonment per 100,000
250
Council
144
The socioeconomic background of prisoners was also investigated by an analysis of
the proportions of prisoners coming from Group H housing – an ACORN xx
classification that includes housing areas characterised by high unemployment,
overcrowding, council ownership, high proportion of lone parents and poorer
families. This analysis reveals that, in June 2003, 60% of prisoners from Glasgow
came from Group H type housing compared to a Scottish average of 28% (Figure
5.51).
Figure 5.51
% imprisoned coming from type H housing on 30th June 2003,
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Houghton, Glasgow Caledonian University
% Imprisoned coming from type H housing 100,000
70
59.7
60
50
44.9
38.9
40
30.8
28.4
30
20.9
18.2
20
13.9
12.8
8.9
8.6
10
4.7
re
w
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ire
es
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N
or
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st
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la
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ow
G
Sc
ot
la
nd
C
ity
0
Council
While there are 1,222 local government wards in Scotland, the home address of a
quarter of the prisoner population (of 6,007) is in just 53 wards, where 7.0% of the
population live. Of these 53 wards, 35 are in Glasgow. There is a strong correlation
between the probability of spending time in prison and deprivation (SIMD).
Fear of crime
In this section a question from the Scottish Household Survey is used to illustrate
safety concerns within neighbourhoods. The question asked respondents to state
whether they felt safe walking in their neighbourhood alone after dark. Across the
West of Scotland in 2003/04, the proportion of respondents stating that they didn’t
feel safe ranged from 17% in East Dunbartonshire to 36% in Inverclyde, while the
figure for Glasgow was 32% (Figure 5.52).
xx
ACORN is a housing classification produced by the market research company CACI. The Scottish
ACORN version classifies housing into 43 types, which aggregate up to eight groups, of which Group
H is one; 10.2% of the Scottish population live in this type of housing.
145
Figure 5.52
Fear of Crime - % of respondents stating they don’t feel safe walking in their
neighbourhood alone after dark, 2003-04
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Scottish Household Survey
40%
36%
35%
33%
33%
32%
31%
29%
30%
26%
25%
24%
23%
22%
%
20%
20%
17%
15%
10%
5%
ve
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um
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ly
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Sc
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la
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0%
Council
5.5 Homelessness
Across all Scotland in 2003-04 there were approximately 55,000 applications made
under the Homeless Persons legislation 7 . This figure increased steadily over the
previous 12 years – for example the figure in 1992-93 was under 43,000. Of those
55,000 applications, just under a quarter related to Glasgow City; a figure of just over
12,500, which has changed little over the past eight years.
Proportionally, however (i.e. as a crude rate per 100,000 population), homelessness
applications in Glasgow have been considerably higher than the combined total for
the West of Scotland local authority areas, and indeed the rate for 2003-04 is around
twice the rate for the whole country in that year (Figure 5.53).
146
Figure 5.53
Homeless applications expressed as a rate per 100,000 adults, 1996-97 to 2003-04
Glasgow city and West of Scotland
Source: Scottish Executive
3000
Crude rate per 100,000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
Scotland
2000-01
2001-02
West of Scotland
2002-03
2003-04
Glasgow City
Finally, Figure 5.54 shows homelessness application rates in 2003-04 broken down
for each individual West of Scotland council area. Glasgow again stands out as the
council area with by far the highest proportion of homelessness applications.
Figure 5.54
Homeless applications expressed as a rate per 100,000 adults, 2003-04
West of Scotland
Source: Scottish Executive
3000
2621
2000
1643
1641
1532
1500
1323
1204
1000
1040
1008
987
1075
1042
810
553
500
hi
re
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rt o
ns
Ay
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h
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es
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co
t
la
Sc
ot
la
nd
0
W
Crude rate per 100,000 pop
2500
Council
147
Summary
x
Glasgow City has the highest proportion of pupils from minority ethnic
communities of any Scottish council (10.9%), equating to 7,500 pupils. It also has
the highest percentage of pupils from less affluent households – 42% of primary
school pupils were eligible to receive free school meals in 2004, double the
national average.
x
In terms of attainment, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire stand out
across the West of Scotland as having the highest proportion of adults with
qualifications at degree level or with three ‘Higher’ qualifications.
x
Estimates of new student participation rates – despite many caveats – suggest a
strong degree of socio-economic patterning in terms of who attains a university
level education. While in many of the affluent parts of the West of Scotland, a
university education is the ‘norm’, only a minority of young people from the most
deprived areas would currently be expected to enter higher education.
x
Over recent years there have been increases in participation rates. However, there
does not appear to be a narrowing of the gap in participation rates between the
traditionally high participation communities of Anniesland, Bearsden &
Milngavie and Eastwood and the rates in less affluent communities.
x
The high proportions of lone parent families in many parts of Glasgow are
highlighted by these figures. Equally, the polarity across Glasgow in the
concentrations of lone parents as a percentage of all households with children is
highlighted. While in Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie 13-14%
of households with children are lone parent households, in Maryhill, Woodside &
North Glasgow and Bridgeton & Dennistoun the percentages rise to around 50%.
x
In terms of social capital, recent surveys present a mixed picture. Levels of civic
engagement appear to be relatively low. However, while those in less deprived
areas are more likely to have been a committee member etc. (11%), those in the
more deprived areas were more likely to have taken action to address a local
problem (13%). One in five Greater Glasgow residents are members of clubs or
organisations, with significantly more membership in the least deprived areas
(25%) compared to the most deprived (16%) areas.
x
Levels of reciprocity and trust are relatively high as measured by survey results.
Two-thirds of Greater Glasgow residents feel that neighbours look out for each
other in their local area and that people can be trusted in their local area.
However, levels of reciprocity and trust are significantly higher in the least
deprived areas compared to the more deprived. Relatively low proportions of
Greater Glasgow residents reported feeling isolated from friends and relatives
(15% of respondents).
148
x
The majority of Greater Glasgow residents have a positive perception of their
local area as a place to live and to bring up children: 73% and 64%, respectively.
However, respondents from more deprived parts of the city are much less positive
about their local areas compared to those from more affluent areas.
x
Voter turnout patterns and trends show that levels of voting are generally lower in
Glasgow than in the rest of Scotland, and that there has been a dramatic drop in
voting turnout since 1992.
x
Glasgow City has the highest overall crime rate among councils in Scotland.
Within the West of Scotland, Glasgow has the highest rates for a range of crime
types including serious assaults, crimes involving offensive weapons, domestic
housebreaking, non-sexual crimes of violence, crimes of indecency and crimes of
dishonesty.
x
Crimes of disorder, vandalism, vehicle crime and housebreaking are all highest in
the city centre area of Glasgow. Crimes of disorder and vandalism show a clear
correlation with deprivation, while vehicle crime and housebreaking appear to be
less related to social patterning of areas.
x
Detailed analysis of violent crime patterns in Glasgow shows that male offenders
outnumber females by over three to one and the peak ages for offenders and
victims are the mid-teenage years to early twenties. The area of residence of
offenders and victims is highly correlated with deprivation and in some smaller
communities in Glasgow over one in ten people have been the victim of a violent
crime in the last three years. Incidents of violent crime are highly concentrated in
the centre of the city.
x
Recorded incidents of domestic abuse vary considerably across the West of
Scotland with the highest recorded rate in West Dunbartonshire (64% above the
Scottish average) and the lowest in East Renfrewshire (58% below the Scottish
average). The rate for Glasgow is the second highest in the West of Scotland and
is 56% above the Scottish average.
x
Rates of assault admission in Glasgow are much higher than the Scottish average
across all ages. The specific diagnosis of assault that predominates in Glasgow is
‘assault by sharp object’, which is likely to be a reflection of the high rates of
knife crime in the city. People from more deprived areas suffer far higher levels
of assault that result in hospitalisation.
x
Across the West of Scotland, the lowest rates of imprisonment occur in East
Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire, while the highest rates are in Inverclyde
(five times the rate in East Dunbartonshire) and Glasgow City (six times higher).
There is a very strong correlation between deprivation and imprisonment.
x
Homelessness applications in Glasgow have been double the Scottish average for
the last eight years and are much higher proportionately than in the other West of
Scotland council areas.
149
x
In summary, Glasgow is a city where deprivation/affluence clearly matters,
whether it is in relation to educational attainment, the chances of being a lone
parent or likelihood of being affected by crime. And while for some measures of
social capital, Glasgow’s profile is quite positive (e.g. in terms of trust, low levels
of isolation, high levels of satisfaction with the local area), other measures,
particularly levels of violent crime, domestic abuse and imprisonment, reflect a
darker side to the city.
150
References
1
NHS Health Scotland. Community Health and Well-being Profiles. 2004
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/communityprofiles
2
HESA. Performance Indicators in Higher Education in the UK 2002/03. 2004
http://www.hesa.ac.uk/pi/0203/home.htm
3
Jones R, Borland E, Boyd A, Lorenzetti K, Scouller J, Carey L, Tannahill C. The
Health and Well-being of the Greater Glasgow Population; summary report. 2003
www.show.scot.nhs.uk/gghb/PubsReps/Reports/health_promotion/health+wellbeing/h
ealth+wellbeing_city_nov03.pdf
4
Scottish Executive. Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2004/05. 2005
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/10/19155942/59484
5
Scottish Executive. Domestic Abuse Recorded by the Police in Scotland, 1 January31 December 2004. 2005
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/09/16120959/10005
6
Houchin R. Social Exclusion and Imprisonment in Scotland: A report. 2005
http://www.sps.gov.uk/Uploads/C1D3FBFB-E123-4643-8D83-AB0F622E7755.pdf
7
Scottish Executive. Operation of the Homeless Persons Legislation in Scotland:
National and Local Authority Analyses 2003-04. 2004
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00363-00.asp
151
Despite major improvements in housing in Glasgow and the West of Scotland in recent
decades, significant numbers of properties still suffer from rising damp, poor heating
efficiency, condensation and mould.
The last 20 years have seen a dramatic decrease in the levels of overcrowding, and a
dramatic increase in the numbers of owner occupiers. However, equally striking
variations in the levels of both indictors across Glasgow and the West of Scotland are
evident today.
Surveys have shown a range of environmental issues to be causes of concern to
Glasgow residents, and these concerns are backed up by other sources of data which
highlight relatively high levels of litter and dog fouling in the city. Considerable concern
also exists about levels of problematic behaviour in Glasgow (e.g. young people
hanging around, drink and drug activities), especially in the more deprived parts of the
city.
Traffic volume has increased year on year in the West of Scotland in recent times and it
is projected to grow further in the next two decades (with almost a 25% rise in Glasgow
predicted by 2021).
Glasgow’s deprived areas are relatively well served by the council in terms of
accessibility to leisure centres. However, areas have been identified where access is a
major problem.
Significant proportions of the population of Glasgow and the West of Scotland live in
proximity to derelict land, landfill sites or sites of potential industrial pollution.
“There have been major improvements in housing in Glasgow and West
Central Scotland in recent decades.”
“The ten small areas with the lowest rates of owner-occupancy are all in
Glasgow, with eight out of ten areas with the highest rates also located
within Glasgow communities.”
“Environmental issues (e.g. dog dirt, traffic, young people hanging
around, alcohol and drug activities) are more likely to be perceived as
problems in the more deprived parts of the city.”
Chapter 6: Physical environment
Summary
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 6: Physical environment
The physical environment has long been recognised as a key determinant of health,
and is described as such in many of the current models of health. The surroundings in
which people live and work can influence health both directly (e.g. through toxic,
allergenic, or infectious agents) and indirectly through influencing behaviours (e.g.
the availability of a local environment in which to walk or cycle). The quality of their
physical environment also affects people’s mental health and well being (which in
turn may affect their physical health). This chapter summarises a few examples of
data relevant to the physical environment for the Glasgow and West of Scotland area.
These data have been grouped into six broad categories: housing; neighbourhood
characteristics and perceptions; traffic volume and air quality; access to services; sites
of environmental concern; and ‘greenspace’.
6.1 Housing
House condition
The last 25 years have seen large-scale investment in the quality of housing stock in
Glasgow and the surrounding West of Scotland area, both in terms of renovation of
existing properties and in the creation of new developments. However, analysis of the
2002 Scottish House Condition Survey 1 (including sub-analysis of the Glasgow
Housing Association (GHA) stock) shows that, for many people, problems remain:
x
An estimated 20,000 properties in Scotland (1% of the total number) are classed
as below tolerable standard’ (BTS) i and, of these, one fifth (4,000 properties)
are located within Glasgow.
x
Nationally, about 6% of properties have rising/penetrating damp, and this is also
true for the West of Scotland generally, and for Glasgow specifically (although the
figure for GHA properties within Glasgow is higher at 10%). At a council level,
the proportion ranges from 4.6% (East Dunbartonshire) to 9.1% (East Ayrshire).
These figures equate to over 20,000 properties in Greater Glasgow, including
approximately 8,000 GHA properties. This is all illustrated in Figure 6.1.
i
The ‘tolerable standard’ is the minimum standard of house condition required by Scottish law.
155
Figure 6.1
Estimated proportion of properties with rising/penetrating damp,
West of Scotland council areas, 2002
Source: SHCS; Newhaven Research
12.0
10.0
% of properties
10.0
9.1
7.6
8.0
6.4
6.0
6.3
6.2
6.0
6.0
6.8
5.5
5.2
4.9
4.6
6.5
8.0
4.0
2.0
In
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More than one in ten properties
ies in Scotland, the West of Scotland, and Greater
Glasgow have mould in at least one room, ranging (at a council level) from 7% in
East Renfrewshire to 15% in East Ayrshire (Figure 6.2). For the West of Scotland this
equates to an estimated 100,000 properties (with, for example, over 30,000 such
properties in Glasgow, and 17,500 in North Lanarkshire).
Figure 6.2
Estimated proportion of properties with mould in any room,
West of Scotland council areas, 2002
Source: SHCS; Newhaven Research
18.0
15.3
16.0
13.8
14.0
11.0
11.2
10.8
11.1
10.0
10.0
9.4
9.3
8.9
8.3
8.0
9.5
10.1
6.9
6.0
4.0
2.0
La
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% of properties
12.0
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Council
156
Figure 6.3 shows that over 30% of properties in the West of Scotland are estimated to
be in “urgent disrepair” ii , ranging from 25% in East Renfrewshire to 50% of all
properties in South Ayrshire. The figure for Glasgow is 28% (Figure 6.3). This
represents over 300,000 properties in the West of Scotland, over a third of which are
within the Greater Glasgow area.
Figure 6.3
Estimated proportion properties with any urgent disrepair,
West of Scotland council areas, 2002
Source: SHCS; Newhaven Research
60.0
49.9
50.0
45.7
41.8
41.6
% of properties
46.7
37.6
40.0
34.1
33.0
28.3
28.0
30.0
29.0
25.2
27.9
25.7
28.4
20.0
10.0
ire
rs
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Council
It should also be noted that an estimated 27,000 properties in Greater Glasgow have
poor heating efficiency (as defined by the National Home Energy Rating iii ). Included
in this number are an estimated 10,300 GHA properties (13% of the total GHA stock).
It is worth noting that in Glasgow a new, and large, programme of regeneration of the
city’s socially rented housing stock is soon to be undertaken 2 . To accompany this, the
Glasgow Centre for Population Health has been commissioned to carry out a research
programme to investigate the impacts of neighbourhood change in a number of
communities, including some which will undergo major programmes of regeneration
(‘the GoWell programme’). Although this is a ten-year research programme, interim
reports will be produced as data become available.
ii
Urgent disrepair defined as: disrepair, that if not repaired, would cause the fabric of the building to
deteriorate further and/or place the health and safety of residents at risk.
iii
Full definition available from the 2002 Scottish House Condition Survey report (see references
section of this chapter).
157
Overcrowding
Levels of overcrowding iv (a key indicator of socio-economic deprivation, and used in
a variety of deprivation indices such as Carstairs 3 and the new Scottish Index of
Multiple Deprivation (SIMD 4 )) have declined dramatically in Scotland over the past
20 years. Expressed in terms of individuals (the measure used in the above
deprivation indices), the proportion of the population living in overcrowded
households in Scotland decreased from 18% of the population in 1981 to less than 5%
in 2001 v . A similarly dramatic decline took place across all Greater Glasgow. This is
illustrated in Figure 6.4 vi .
Figure 6.4
% of population living in overcrowded households, 1981-2001
Source: 1981, 1991, 2001 Censuses
25.0
23.6
20.0
% of population
18.3
15.0
11.2
10.0
7.2
7.4
5.0
4.6
0.0
1981
1991
Scotland
2001
Greater Glasgow
Despite this overall decline, huge variations in rates of overcrowding remain.
Expressed in terms of households (as was done in the Community Profiles 5 ), the
proportion of all households in Scotland classed as overcrowded in 2001 stands at just
under 12%. However, at a ‘community’ vii level across Greater Glasgow and the West
of Scotland this figure ranges from 6% in Eastwood to around 30% in Bridgeton &
Dennistoun (Figure 6.5). At a small area level (Figure 6.6), the contrasts are again
greater: from around 1% to 4% of households in the areas with the lowest rates (e.g.
Alloway, Giffnock, Newton Mearns); to around 30% to 35% in the small areas with
the highest rates (e.g. Govan, Easterhouse, Parkhead).
iv
See Appendix 1 for definition of this, and all other, indicators included in this chapter.
Note that other published figures quote the 1981 overcrowding figure for Scotland as 25%. However,
to allow valid comparison with 1991 and 2001, a correction factor has been applied to the 1981 figure.
vi
Data in Figure 6.4 is for all ‘communities’ within NHS Greater Glasgow, the boundaries of which
differ from the exact NHSGG boundary.
vii
These are primary care-based localities (mainly the old Local Healthcare Cooperative (LHCC) areas
or, in some cases, the new Community Health (Care) Partnerships (CH(C)Ps)) with populations
ranging from 20,000-140,000 people. For further details see ‘Preface to Chapters 2-12’.
v
158
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ad
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er
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e
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oo
Sc
ot
Figure 6.5
Proportion of households classed as overcrowded, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
35.0
30.0
26
29
25.0
20.0
19
14
12
7
8
2
9
3
9
3
9
3
10
10
4
10
4
10
4
4
14
14
32
15
32
15
15
32
16
33
33
21
33
21
34
22
34
22
17
12
5.0
0.0
Community
Figure 6.6
Proportion of households classed as overcrowded, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
40.0
35
35
30.0
20.0
10.0
12
4
0.0
Postcode sector
159
Tenure
Housing tenure is an indicator which could just as easily sit in Chapter 4: Economic
factors, as in this chapter. It is another indicator that has shown massive change in the
past 20 years, with the proportion of properties owner-occupied in Glasgow having
doubled between 1981 and 2001 (from 24% to 49%). However, huge variation in the
levels of owner-occupancy across Greater Glasgow and the West of Scotland remain.
Nationally in 2001, 63% of the population owned their own home. At a community
level across the West of Scotland, however, this ranged from 34% in Maryhill,
Woodside & North Glasgow to almost 90% in Eastwood (Figure 6.7). Greater
Glasgow communities have the three highest and three lowest rates of owner
occupancy in the West of Scotland.
Figure 6.7
Owner-occupiers - proportion of population owning their own home, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
100.0
86
90.0
80.0
% of population
70.0
70
63
60.0
50
50.0
40.0
52
52
53
54
55
56
59
60
60
61
61
64
64
64
71
71
75
88
77
65
43
34
34
30.0
20.0
10.0
M
ar
yh
ill/
W
oo
ds
Sc
Br ide
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ge & N tlan
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d
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ly
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sg
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sg Gla ll
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rie We w
st
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t R ern
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iln n
ga
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0.0
Community
At a small area level, huge contrasts are again evident: the ten small areas with the
lowest rates of owner-occupancy (between approximately 10% and 20%) are all in
Glasgow, while eight of the ten areas with the highest rates (between 93% and 98%
owner-occupancy rates) are also located within Greater Glasgow communities (Figure
6.8).
160
Figure 6.8
Owner-occupiers - proportion of population owning their own home, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
110.0
100.0
94
93
94
95
95
94
98
96
96
95
90.0
% of population
80.0
70.0
63
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
11
12
16
15
15
20
19
19
17
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ov
an
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as
tle
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ilk
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ig
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am
la
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0.0
Postcode sector
Vacant dwellings
Figure 6.9 shows the proportion of households within each of the West of Scotland
communities which are vacant dwellings. The national figure is just under 4%, but
across Scotland it ranges from around 1% (Strathkelvin) to 7% (Paisley & Levern
Valley).
Figure 6.9
Vacant dwellings - proportion of all household spaces which are unoccupied, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow Communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
8.0
7
6
6.0
5
5.0
5
4
4.0
3.0
2
2.0
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
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4
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4
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1.0
la
nd
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lv
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rs
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rn
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lle
y
0.0
An
ni
es
la
nd
St
Sc
ot
% of all household spaces
7.0
Community
161
Figure 6.10 shows the same figures at a small area (postcode sector) level, contrasting
the ten areas with the lowest rates (all under 1% of households) with the ten highest
(e.g. Laigh Park and Ferguslie Park in Paisley, where almost one in five dwellings
were vacant at the time of the 2001 census).
Figure 6.10
Vacant dwellings - proportion of all household spaces which are unoccupied, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
% of all household spaces
25.0
20.0
17.8
19.4
13.9
15.0
9.4
10.0
5.0
18.8
10.3
10.8
11.3
11.7
11.9
3.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Sc
ot
la
nd
Er
sk
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i
n
llo
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;W
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e;
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lm
or
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illi
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on
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rn
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on
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e
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r;
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ai
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t.
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ad
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rn
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n;
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or
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ls
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rk
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ad
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al
m
ar
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ck
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re
en
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k
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en
fr e
w
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illa
rs
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n
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rle
n
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ar
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bo
ui
n
ur
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ig
d
h
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To
rk
w
n
C
en
Fe
tre
rg
us
li e
Pa
rk
0.0
Postcode sector
This highlights the fact that a number of the more deprived areas in the West of
Scotland were characterised in 2001 by having high proportions of unoccupied
properties. This is clearly likely to have a negative impact on the overall
environmental quality of a neighbourhood. Further aspects of the overall quality of
neighbourhoods are examined in the second section of this chapter.
162
6.2 Neighbourhood characteristics and perceptions
Cleanliness, litter and adverse environmental quality indicators
Levels of ‘cleanliness’ of different areas in Scotland can be assessed by means of data
collated by the Keep Scotland Beautiful organisation. This is based on a 2% random
sample of streets across the 32 council areas in Scotland, from which areas are graded
according to the 1999 Code of Practice on Litter and Refuse viii . Four grades of
cleanliness are used:
Grade A
Grade B
Grade C
Grade D
No litter or refuse
Predominantly free of litter and refuse – apart from small items
Widespread distribution of litter and refuse with minor accumulations
Heavily littered with significant accumulations.
Under this system, sites graded ‘C’ or ‘D’ are deemed unacceptable. Figure 6.11
shows the grading of sites in Glasgow and, for comparison, Scotland. This shows that
in Glasgow 17% of sites were ‘unacceptable’ (Grades C and D), compared to the
national figure of 6.4%. Although not illustrated here, this is the highest figure among
all West of Scotland councils (the lowest is in South Lanarkshire: 1%).
Figure 6.11
'Cleanliness': % of sites graded A, B, C or D, 2004/05
Source: Keep Scotland Beautiful
90
79
78
80
70
% of sites
60
50
40
30
20
16
16
10
6
4
1
0.4
0
Scotland
Glasgow City
Cleanliness Grade A (No litter or refuse)
Cleanliness Grade B (Predominantly free of litter and refuse apart from small items)
Cleanliness Grade C (Widespread distribution of litter and refuse with minor accumulations)
Cleanliness Grade D (Heavily littered with significant accumulations)
viii
Relates to Part IV of the Environmental Protection Act (EPA) 1990. Full details of relevant
definitions, and methods used, are listed in Appendix 1.
163
From this grading information, Keep Scotland Beautiful has derived an Overall
Cleanliness Index ix . The figures for each West of Scotland council area are presented
in Figure 6.12. This shows that Glasgow has the lowest ‘cleanliness’ score of the 11
areas (in fact, it has the lowest score of all 32 council areas in Scotland 6 ).
Figure 6.12
Overall Cleanliness Index for 11 West of Scotland Councils, 2004/05
Source: Audit Scotland Performance Indicators ( from Keep Scotland Beautiful data)
75
73
73
72
71
70
71
70
70
69
Index out of 100
68
67
66
65
62
60
sh
ire
st
R
en
fre
w
rto
ns
hi
re
Ea
Ea
st
La
na
h
So
ut
Ay
h
So
ut
D
un
ba
rk
sh
ire
ire
rs
h
ire
rs
h
Ay
N
or
th
ar
ks
hi
re
La
n
N
or
th
rto
ns
hi
re
W
es
t
D
un
ba
w
sh
ire
ve
rc
ly
de
In
st
Ea
R
en
fre
Ay
rs
hi
re
ity
C
go
w
la
s
G
Sc
ot
la
nd
55
Council
Keep Scotland Beautiful has also analysed litter problems at a council level and by
source of litter. Figure 6.13 presents a summary of these data for Glasgow and
Scotland, showing that pedestrians or individuals are by the far the most common
sources of litter, with animal faeces the next most common source. In comparison to
the other West of Scotland councils (not shown), Glasgow had the largest problem in
terms of pedestrian/individual litter (93% of sites). It also had the second highest
percentage for animal faeces (18%) after South Ayrshire (22%). The most common
types of litter found were: smoking related litter, sweet wrappers, drinks related
materials, and fast food litter.
ix
Full methodology outlined in Appendix 1.
164
Figure 6.13
Litter: % presence of different sources of litter, 2004/05
Source: Keep Scotland Beautiful
100
93
90
82
80
70
% of sites
60
50
40
30
18
20
10
10
6
4
11
8
3
2
1
2
0
SCOTLAND
Glasgow City
Council
Pedestrian/Individual
Business
Domestic
Construction
Animal Faeces
Other
Keep Scotland Beautiful also produces ‘Adverse Environmental Quality’ indicators at
a council level, showing the percentage of sites for which dog fouling, vandalism,
graffiti, weeds, detritus (includes muck, grit, loose particles and leaves) and flyposting were noted as a problem. Figure 6.14 summarises these indicators for the
eleven West of Scotland councils. The key features of this graph are that while
‘detritus’ and weeds appear to be the most common problems across all the councils,
perhaps the most concerning issues for Glasgow are dog fouling (second highest level
in West of Scotland) and graffiti (highest).
Figure 6.14
Adverse Environmental Quality Indicators, West of Scotland council areas, 2004/05
Source: Keep Scotland Beautiful
80
73
71
67
70
60
57
56
51
50
53
51
49
48 49
46
42
41
39
40
44
40
31
30
38
35
32
35
26
9
10
1
4
1
4
13
11
8
5
21
19
18
20
1
10
6
4
1
0
1
0
3
1
0
3
1
3
01
0
3
0
9
8
6
5
1
1
8
1
0
3
0
5
0
23
2
sh
ire
Ay
r
re
So
ut
h
sh
ire
La
na
rk
sh
i
So
ut
h
Ay
r
N
or
th
ly
de
Ea
st
R
en
fre
w
sh
ire
In
ve
rc
Ea
st
D
un
ba
rt o
ns
hi
re
La
na
rk
sh
ire
sh
ire
N
or
th
Ay
r
Ea
st
w
sh
ire
R
en
fre
W
es
tD
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
C
ity
G
la
sg
ow
TL
AN
D
0
SC
O
% of sites
50
Council
Dog Fouling
Vandalism
Graffiti
Weeds
Detritus
Flyposting
165
0
Perceptions of neighbourhoods
Issues such as those outlined above will clearly influence residents’ perceptions of
their neighbourhoods. These perceptions were measured by NHS Greater Glasgow’s
Health and Well-being Survey of 2002 7 . Figure 6.15 shows the results of ten survey
questions relating to perceptions of problems in the local area. These are presented for
Glasgow City area (results for Greater Glasgow are also available, but are very
similar), and analyse responses within the city by those living within Social Inclusion
Partnership (SIP) areas at the time of the 2002 survey compared to those who were
not. Important issues include:
x
Young people hanging around (perceived as a problem by almost 70% of the
population: 82% in SIP areas)
Drug activity (perceived as a problem by 59% overall: 77% in SIP areas)
Excessive drinking (58% overall: 77% in SIP areas)
Vandalism/graffiti (55% overall: 75% in SIP areas)
Car crime (43% overall: 55% in SIP areas).
x
x
x
x
Figure 6.15
Perceived problems in local area, Glasgow City and SIP/Non-SIP areas
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
% of respondents saying very/fairly common
100
90
82
77
80
70
77
75
74
68
59
60
59
58
50
55
55
51
48
47
43
43
42
38
40
36
31
37
34
29
30
30
28
21
22
20
20
15
15
10
Young people
hanging around
Drug activity
Excessive
drinking
Vandalism /
graffiti
Unemployment
Car crime
Burglaries
Assaults /
muggings
Domestic
violence
SIP
Bullying in
schools
Figure 6.16 presents a similar range of ten survey question responses, this time with
regard to perceptions of environmental problems in local areas. The biggest identified
problems (seen as ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ common) are:
x
x
x
x
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
0
Dog dirt (54% perceiving this as a problem, rising to 62% in SIP areas)
Traffic (45% overall: 51% in SIP area)
Rubbish lying about (40% overall: 47% in SIP area)
Noise and disturbance (28% overall: 38% in SIP area).
166
Figure 6.16
Perceptions of Environmental Problems, Glasgow City and SIP/non-SIP areas
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
% of respondents saying very/fairly common
100
90
80
70
62
60
54
51
50
50
47
45
42
40
40
38
35
30
28
30
22
20
20
29
22
18
22
14 15 14
16
16
15
11
9
8
10
12
14
10
Dog dirt
Traffic
Rubbish lying
about
Noise and
disturbance
Air pollution
Contaminated Vacant / derelict Vacant / derelict
drinking water
buildings
land
Abandoned
cars
SIP
Poor street
lighting
These figures suggest high levels of concern about some behavioural and
environmental issues in Glasgow neighbourhoods, particularly in the more deprived
(SIP) areas. One of these concerns – noise and disturbance – is considered in more
detail in the next section below.
Noise complaints
Noise complaints are collected by environmental health departments within councils
and the data have been collated by Health Protection Scotland as part of their EHS3
project x . Comparing total noise complaints across all West of Scotland councils, the
highest rate of complaints in 2003 was in Renfrewshire followed by Glasgow and then
Inverclyde (Figure 6.17).
x
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
SIP
Non-SIP
Glasgow
0
Environmental Health Surveillance System for Scotland (EHS3).
167
Figure 6.17
Total Noise Complaints per 10,000 population, West of Scotland council areas, 2003
Source: Health Protection Scotland (from Council Environmental Health Departments)
27.8
Renfrewshire
26.0
Glasgow City*
24.3
Council
Inverclyde
North Ayrshire
22.7
South Ayrshire
22.7
22.0
South Lanarkshire
East Dunbartonshire
11.9
North Lanarkshire
11.9
9.7
West Dunbartonshire
6.2
East Renfrewshire
6.0
East Ayrshire
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Complaints per 10,000 residents
*Glasgow: based on 9 months data annualised
It should be noted, however, that these figures may be misleading in a number of
ways. First, an individual could have complained on many occasions (thus inflating
the population rate). Second, the system only records complaints made to an
environmental health department (thus underestimating the real scale of noise
problems in a council area). Furthermore, the numbers are clearly dependent on how
likely people are to make a complaint in each area. Finally it is more important to note
that noise complaints can be subdivided by type (e.g. domestic, industrial, etc.) but
this level of detail is not reported here, given these concerns regarding the reliability
of the data xi .
6.3 Traffic volume and air quality
The estimated total volume of traffic on Scotland's roads in 2003 was 42 billion
(thousand million) vehicle kilometres. The West of Scotland accounted for 35% of
that figure (14.5 billion vehicle kilometres).
Figure 6.18 shows the figures for West of Scotland council areas, by year, for the
period 1993-2003. Within all Scotland (not shown) there was an 18% rise in traffic
volume over this period, with similar rises evident across most of the council areas
shown.
xi
Some of these discrepancies may be resolved (or partially resolved) in future by means of a European
Union Noise Directive requiring (by June 2007) the creation of local "noise maps" for specific areas.
168
Figure 6.18
Estimates of traffic volume in vehicle kilometres,
West of Scotland council areas, 1993-2003
Source: Scottish Executive - Scottish Transport Statistics 2004
3500.0
Glasgow City
North Lanarkshire
3000.0
Million Vehicle Kilometres
South Lanarkshire
2500.0
Renfrewshire
East Ayrshire
2000.0
South Ayrshire
1500.0
North Ayrshire
1000.0
East Renfrewshire
West Dunbartonshire
500.0
Inverclyde
0.0
East Dunbartonshire
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
More strikingly, Figure 6.19 showss projections in traffic growth between the years
2001 and 2021 for Scotland and the 11 West of Scotland council areas. Nationally
traffic is expected to grow by 27%, ranging in the West of Scotland from 18% in
Inverclyde to 33% in North Lanarkshire. The predicted increase for Glasgow is 24%.
This raises a number of concerns about future levels of pollution and road congestion,
as well as questions about how sustainable such a rise in traffic growth can be.
Figure 6.19
Projected traffic growth from 2001 by West of Scotland council
Source: Scottish Executive
North Lanarkshire
35
East Renfrewshire
30
South Lanarkshire
East
Dunbartonshire
% growth from 2001
25
West
Dunbartonshire
20
Scotland
Renfrewshire
15
North Ayrshire
10
Glasgow City
East Ayrshire
5
South Ayrshire
Inverclyde
0
2001
2006
2011
2021
169
Air pollution
Recorded nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels provide a proxy measure of the impact of
traffic pollution. Data on NO2 are collected at recording sites and the results are
presented here for West of Scotland councils. However, as with noise complaints, a
number of caveats should be noted and the figures should, as a consequence, be
interpreted with caution: the number and location (kerbside/roadside, intermediate,
background) of recording sites varies substantially between councils and there are
differences in the methods of analysis used in different laboratories xii . The figures
presented should thus be interpreted with caution.
Bearing these caveats in mind, Figure 6.20 below shows that, of the 11 West of
Scotland councils, Glasgow had the highest annual average recorded levels of NO2 in
2003, while South Ayrshire had the lowest. This is not unexpected as Glasgow has the
highest volumes of traffic and the most monitoring sites.
Figure 6.20
*
Monthly mean NO2 Readings , West of Scotland Councils, 2003
Source: Health Protection Scotland (from Council Environmental Health Departments)
90
Glasgow City
80
East Dunbartonshire
North Lanarkshire
70
Renfrewshire
60
10 ȝg per m3
Inverclyde
50
West Dunbartonshire
40
East Renfrewshire
30
East Ayrshire
20
South Lanarkshire
10
North Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
0
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
* The NO2 data have not been bias corrected. The means provided are an average of all results and do not differentiate between roadside or background monitors.
xii
The differences in measurement recording used in different laboratories are usually controlled for:
so-called ‘bias correction’. However, the figures presented above have not been bias corrected. They
are thus an average of all results and do not differentiate between roadside or background monitors.
170
6.4 Access to services
Access to leisure services xiii
A study on access to leisure services in Glasgow for non-car users was carried out in
2004 by Fiona Marrison, an MSc student in Geographical Information Systems (GIS)
at the University of Edinburgh. The study examined access to the 16 multi-function
local authority-owned leisure centres xiv within Glasgow City in terms of public
transport, acceptable walking distances and acceptable cycling distances. Such access
is an important issue given the rising trend in obesity in Glasgow (see Chapter 7:
Behaviour) combined with the fact that a significant proportion of the population
within Glasgow, especially those under the age of eighteen or those on low incomes,
are non-car users. A full copy of the dissertation is available on request and the main
summary points are as follows:
x
The majority of the leisure centres in Glasgow are, in fact, situated within the
most deprived areas of the city. This can be seen in Figure 6.21 where the centres’
locations are mapped against a backdrop of the deprivation distribution (from the
SIMD) within the Glasgow City Council boundaries.
Figure 6.21 Map illustrating the extent of multiple deprivation in Glasgow, 2004, and
the location of the 16 local authority owned leisure centres.
Donald Dewar Leisure Centre
Drumchapel Pool
.
North Woodside Leisure Centre
Springburn Leisure Centre
Yoker Sports Centre
Whitehill Pool
Easterhouse Sport s Centre
Scotstoun Leisure Centre
Kelvin Hall International Sports Arena
Gorbals Leisure Centre
Legen d
Pollok Leisure Ce ntre
Holyrood Sports Ce ntre
Tollcro ss Park Leisure Centre
Leisure Fac ilities
Glasgow Data Zones
Castlemilk Po ol
Castlemilk Sports Centre
0
1.25
2.5
5 Kilometers
SIMD Ranking
2% (most deprived)
Bellahousto n Leisu re Centre
Map produced by Fiona Marrison
August 2004
Source: SportScotland 2004
SIMD 2004, Scottish Executive
Strathclyde Passenger Transport
OS OSCAR Road Network Centreline
2001 Census, Output Area Boundaries
5%
10%
20%
50%
51%-100% (least deprived)
xiii
Note for Figures 6.21-6.26: ©Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Glasgow City Council,
100023379, 2006.
xiv
There are a total of 24 local authority owned leisure facilities in Glasgow. However, the analysis was
confined to those centres which offered a range of different leisure facilities (a selection of: swimming
pool, health suite, sports hall, fitness suite (gym), dance hall).
171
x
There is generally excellent access to public transport in the city: 99% of
Glasgow’s population live within 400m (five minutes walk) of a bus stop.
x
The entire population (100%) of the city lives within 20 minutes cycling distance
(the maximum ‘acceptable’ distance of 5km) xv, 8 of leisure facilities. 60% live
within a distance of 2km, and 21% live within 1km. This is illustrated in Figure
6.22.
Figure 6.22
Accessibility to Leisure Facilities by Cycling
.
Cycling Thresholds
1km
2km
0
x
1.25
2.5
5 Kilometers
Map produced by Fiona Marrison
August 2004
Source: SportScotland 2004
OS OSCAR Road Network Centreline
5km
Leisure Facilities
OSCAR Road Network
However, it is estimated that only 45% of the total population lives within 20
minutes walking distance of a leisure facility (estimated at 1600mxvi ). This is well
under the Scottish Executive / Sport Scotland’s target for 2007 that 70% of the
population should have access to leisure facilities within a 20 minute walk. 9
xv
This relates to research published by the Scottish Executive which calculates the ‘maximum
acceptable’ cycling distance to reach services as being 5km (acceptable ‘short to normal’ distances:
1km and 2km).
xvi
1600m estimate derived from the same published research as above which also stipulated this
distance as being the maximum ‘acceptable’ walking distance for reaching services.
172
x
Figure 6.23 shows walking accessibility from each leisure facility (areas within 20
minutes/1600m walk of each centre are highlighted) against a backdrop of the
health deprivation domain of the SIMD. Figure 6.24 is a similar map, but shows
public transport accessibility from each facility (the green lines indicate areas
within five minutes walk of a bus stop xvii ). Together these two maps suggest that
for a number of highly deprived areas in the north side of the city – e.g. Milton,
Maryhill and Summerston – access to leisure facilities by public transport is very
poor and, at the same time, the relevant walking distances exceed the ‘acceptable’
Scottish Executive threshold. Similarly, there are areas in the eastern side of the
city (e.g. Royston, Robroyston, Gartcraig, Garthamlock, Dalmarnock, Bridgeton
and Queenslie) with limited accessibility.
Figure 6.23
Health deprivation and accessibility by walking to leisure facilities
Su mmersto n
Maryhill
Kepp ochhil l
Milto n
Roysto n/Ro broysto n
Gartcraig
.
Gar th amlock
G ovan/Ib rox
Dalmarn ock/
Toryglen Brid geton
H ea lth D ep riva tion
P arkhea d
Leisure Facilities
n etwa lk1600 sh p
Heal th Ranking
2% (most deprived)
Pollo ksha ws
0
1.25
2.5
5 Kil ometers
5%
Map p rodu ce d by Fio na Marrison
A ugu st 2004
S ource: Spo rtsS co tla nd 200 4
S IMD 200 4, S co ttish E xecutive
O S OSCA R Roa d Ne twor k Cen trel ine
S tr ath cl yd e P assenge r Tr anspo rt
10%
20%
50%
51-1 00% (le as t depriv ed)
xvii
Glasgow City Council adheres to regional transport planning guidelines stipulating an ‘access goal'
of 400m (or five minutes walking time) to a public transport service stop; as 98% of transport service
stops in Glasgow are bus stops, these were used in the analysis. Further details / references available on
request.
173
Figure 6.24
Health deprivation and accessibility by public transport to leisure facilities
Su mmersto n
Maryhill
Kepp ochhil l
Milto n
Roysto n/Ro broysto n
Gartcraig
.
Gar th amlock
G ovan/Ib rox
Dalmarn ock/
Toryglen Brid geton
H ea lth D ep riva tion
P arkhea d
Leisu re Facilities
B us Ac cess ibilit y
Castle milk
Heal th Rank ing
2% (most deprived)
Pollo ksha ws
0
1.25
2.5
5 Kilo mete rs
5%
Map p rodu ce d by Fio na Marrison
A ugu st 2004
S ource: Spo rtsS co tla nd 200 4
S IMD 200 4, S co ttish E xecutive
O S OSCA R Roa d Ne twor k Cen trel ine
S tr ath cl yd e P assenge r Tr anspo rt
10%
20%
50%
51-1 00% (le ast depriv ed)
x
South of the river, there are a number of highly deprived areas which, in fact, have
very good levels of access to leisure centres by means of public transport, walking
and cycling – for example Castlemilk and Toryglen & Hutchestown. Exceptions
to this picture are apparent, however (e.g. parts of Ibrox and Govan). Although not
specifically marked on the map, there is a large area north of, and including part
of, Pollokshaws which has no accessible leisure centres. It should be borne in
mind that Pollokshaws and Govanhill swimming pools were both located within
this area but were closed in 1999 and 2001 respectively.
x
Figures 6.25 and 6.26 compare car ownership levels with access to leisure services
through walking (Figure 6.25) and public transport (Figure 6.26). These maps
confirm that many of the areas identified above as having poor access to leisure
service by means of walking or public transport also suffer from relatively low car
ownership – areas such as Gartcraig, Summerhill, Wallacewell and parts of
Maryhill stand out in this respect.
174
Figure 6.25
Car ownership levels and accessibility to leisure facilities by walking
Summe rhill
Drumry
.
Mar yh ill
Kep pochhil l
Wall acewell
Royston/Robr oyston
G artcraig
Easterho use
Go va n/Ibr ox
Ki ngsto n
Mo sspa rk
Dalmar nock/
Bri dgeton
Ca r O w ners hi p Leve ls
81 % - 1 00 %
61 % - 8 0%
41 % - 6 0%
0
1.25
2.5
5 K ilometers
Map p rodu ce d by Fio na Marrison
A ugu st 2004
S ource: Spo rtS cotl and 20 04
S tr ath cl yd e P assenge r Tra nsport
O S OSCA R Road Ne twor k Centreli ne
2 001 Censu s, Output Area B oun dari es
2 001 Censu s, Ca r Ownershi p Levels
21 % - 4 0%
0% - 20 %
Le isure Fa cilit ie s
16 00 m Wa lkin g T hresh old
N o B us Sto p P rovision
175
Figure 6.26
Car ownership levels and accessibility to leisure facilities by public transport
Sum m e rhill
D rum ry
.
M ar yh ill
Kep pochhil l
W all acew ell
R oyston/R obr oyston
G artcraig
Easterho use
Go va n/Ibr ox
Ki ngsto n
Mo sspa rk
D alm ar nock/
Bri dgeton
C a r O w n ers hi p L eve ls
8 1% - 10 0%
6 1% - 80 %
4 1% - 60 %
0
1.25
2.5
5 K ilom eters
M ap p rodu ce d by Fio na M arrison
A ugu st 2004
S ource: Spo rtS cotl and 20 04
S tr ath cl yd e P assenge r Tra nsport
O S OSC A R R oad N e tw or k C entreli ne
2 001 C ensu s, Output Area B oun dari es
2 001 C ensu s, Ca r Ow nershi p Levels
2 1% - 40 %
0 % - 2 0%
L eis u re F ac ilitie s
N o Bu s S t op Pr ov isio n
B us A ccessibil ity
Access to health services
A less sophisticated analysis of access – measured solely by drive-time – to a range of
local services was carried out in 2001/02 on behalf of the Scottish Executive’s
Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (SNS) programme 10 . The health services included
in the analysis were general practitioners, dentists and hospitals. Note, however, that
the analysis was based solely on the physical location of the services and did not take
any other issues into consideration.
One illustrative example is presented here. Figure 6.27 shows, by community, the
proportion of households within five minutes drive-time of a dentist. At this level, the
figures range from 62% of households to 99% to 100% in the majority of the Greater
Glasgow communities.
Similar data (not presented here) show that, at a West of Scotland community level,
there would appear to be good access to GPs (80% or more households in each area
are within five minutes drive-time of a GP) and hospitals (95%-100% are estimated
to be within 30 minutes drive time).
176
Figure 6.27
Households within 5 minutes' drive-time of a dentist, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics data)
100.0
93
82
% of households
80.0
71
74
76
76
78
81
82
93
95
96
97
97
99
99
99
99
100 100 100 100 100 100 100
85
62
60.0
40.0
20.0
So
Sc
o
tla
C
nd
ly
de
sd
ut
a
l
h
Ay e
rs
Ea
hi
st
re
Ay
rs
hi
r
Lo e
m
on
In
ve d
rc
ly
de
W
N
i
s
or
ha
th
w
Ay
r
C
um shir
e
be
r
Ea na u
Ai
ld
st
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rie
Ki
lb
R
&
ri
en
C
oa de
fr e
tb
w
rid
&
ge
W
H
C
es
ly
t R am
de
i
l
e
t
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on
nf
nk
re
w
&
sh
D
i
ru
re
P
m
ch
An aisl
ap
ey
ni
St
el
es
ra
an
la
th
d
nd
ke
Le
/B
lv
v
in
er
ea
n
rs
Va
de
lle
n/
y
M
C
am
iln
M
ga
ar
bu
vi
yh
sl
E
e
an
ill/
as
W
g
tw
oo
&
oo
R
ds
d
u
id
th
e
er
&
gl
N
en
G
Ea
la
st
sg
er
So
ow
n
ut
G
h
l
as
W
g
es
t G ow
la
sg
ow
M
G
r
ot
he
Br eat
er
r
id
ge
Sh wel
l
to
aw
n
la
&
nd
D
G
e
s
la
sg nni
st
ou
So ow
W
n
ut
e
h
E a st E
st
nd
G
la
sg
ow
0.0
Community
At a small area level, the vast majority of all West of Scotland postcode sectors are
within easy access (at least by car) of a GP, hospital and dentist.
Access to other, non-NHS, services
Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics also provides similar data on access to other, nonNHS, services. Again, for the sake of brevity, one illustrative example is shown here.
Figure 6.28 shows, by council, the percentage of all households that are within a five
minute drive of a secondary school. The average figure for Scotland was 74% and
across the West of Scotland councils it varied from 87% in Glasgow to 48% in East
Ayrshire.
177
Figure 6.28
Households within a 5 minute drive of a Secondary School, 2001
West of Scotland Councils
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
100
86.6
90
% of households
80
84.0
81.2
80.2
79.5
74.2
79.1
75.7
72.8
67.3
70
62.3
60
47.7
50
40
30
20
10
ire
rs
h
Ay
st
Ea
ire
re
w
sh
Ea
ire
st
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
So
ut
h
La
na
rk
sh
W
ire
es
tD
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
N
or
th
Ay
rs
hi
re
So
ut
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
R
en
f
yd
e
rc
l
R
en
fr e
w
sh
Ea
st
or
th
N
In
ve
La
na
rk
sh
ire
C
ity
la
sg
ow
G
Sc
ot
la
nd
0
Council
Similar education-based indicators are available from the SNS website providing
estimates of drive times to Nursery School, Primary School and Further/Higher
Education College. Data are also available for ‘retail services’ (e.g. drive time to post
offices, petrol stations, chemists, supermarkets), and other services such as citizens
advice bureaux, police stations, job centres, and libraries.
6.5 Sites of environmental concern
This section of the chapter looks briefly at three issues of major environmental
concern: derelict land, proximity to landfill sites and proximity to areas with reported
industrial pollution.
Areas of derelict land and proximity of population to derelict land
Across Scotland derelict land xviii accounts for over 7,600 hectares. Among the West of
Scotland councils, North Lanarkshire has the highest area of derelict land (945
hectares – 12% of the Scottish total) followed by Renfrewshire (11%) and Glasgow
(10%) (Figure 6.29).
xviii
Derelict land (and buildings): defined as that which has been so damaged by development or use
that it is incapable of being developed for beneficial use without rehabilitation, and which is not being
used for either the purpose for which it is held, or for a use acceptable in a local plan.
178
Figure 6.29
Area of Derelict Land (Hectares), West of Scotland council areas, 2004
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (from Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey)
1200
Scotland: 7368 hectares
1000
945
Derelict land (Hectares)
820
800
733
600
451
400
347
275
182
200
123
64
54
43
ks
hi
re
La
na
r
N
or
th
fre
en
R
na
La
th
So
u
w
rk
sh
sh
ire
ire
ire
rs
h
Ay
N
or
th
Ay
rs
hi
re
Ea
st
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
W
es
t
Ay
rs
hi
re
th
ly
de
So
u
ba
un
st
D
In
ve
rc
hi
rto
ns
w
sh
Ea
Ea
s
tR
en
fr e
w
sg
o
la
G
re
ire
C
i ty
0
Council
In terms of proximity, 27% of the Scottish population live within 500m of derelict
land. However this percentage rises to 51% in North Lanarkshire, 57% in Glasgow
and 64% in West Dunbartonshire (Figure 6.30)
A recent report produced by Fairburn et al on ‘environmental justice’ in Scotland 11 ,
reported that there is a strong relationship between derelict land and deprivation and
that “people in the most deprived areas are far more likely to be living near to (this)
source of potential negative environmental impact than people in less deprived areas”.
They further pointed out that both old and newly derelict sites are found in proximity
to substantially greater numbers of people experiencing relative deprivation.
179
Figure 6.30
Proximity to Derelict Sites: % of population living within 500m of any derelict site, 2004
West of Scotland Councils & Scotland
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (from Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey)
70
64.3
57
60
51.2
% of population
50
40
25.9
25
24.8
22.7
21.9
33.8
31.9
30.7
27.4
30
20
10
hi
re
ire
ns
sh
rto
rk
ba
na
un
La
D
th
N
W
es
t
or
N
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en
or
th
fr e
ve
r
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w
sh
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de
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i
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st
R
So
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en
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sh
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s
tD
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
Ea
s
G
la
sg
Sc
o
ow
tla
C
nd
ity
0
Council
Areas of urban vacant land
In Scotland in 2004 just over 3000 hectares of land were designated as urban vacant
land: land that is located in or very close to urban settlements and is unused or
unsightly, or which could benefit from development or improvement. As is shown in
Figure 6.31, Glasgow City boundaries incorporate 582 hectares – 19% of all land of
this type in Scotland – while the North Lanarkshire council area also has a significant
percentage of this type of land (376 hectares: 12% of the total).
Figure 6.31
Area of Urban Vacant Land (Hectares) by West of Scotland Council, 2004
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (from Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey)
800
Scotland: 3023 hectares
582
600
500
376
400
300
205
195
200
153
100
21
13
79
67
44
38
re
La
na
rk
sh
i
N
or
th
sh
ire
R
en
fre
w
sh
ire
Ay
r
N
or
th
ly
de
La
na
rk
sh
ire
So
ut
h
In
ve
rc
Ea
st
D
un
ba
rt o
ns
hi
re
sh
ire
Ay
r
Ea
st
W
es
tD
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
Ay
rs
hi
re
So
ut
h
re
re
w
sh
i
Ea
st
R
en
f
C
ity
0
G
la
sg
ow
Urban Vacant Land (Hectares)
700
Council
180
Proximity to landfill sites
Figure 6.32 shows that 13% of the Scottish population lived within two kilometres of
a landfill site in 2001. Within the West of Scotland, 28% of East Dunbartonshire
residents and 26% of East Renfrewshire residents lived within two kilometres of a
landfill site, while in Glasgow the figure was only 10%.
Figure 6.32
Proximity to Landfill Sites: % of population living within 2km of a landfill site,
West of Scotland council areas, 2001
% of population living within 2km of a landfill site
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (from SEPA data)
30
28.3
25.9
25
20.2
20.1
20
16.4
15
13.3
10
10
8.7
4
5
2.5
1.8
0.1
un
tD
Ea
st
R
en
ba
fre
rto
w
ns
sh
hi
re
ire
re
hi
La
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rk
s
or
th
N
N
or
th
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s
W
Ay
rs
hi
re
re
hi
ns
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es
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un
en
fre
w
sh
ire
La
So
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th
R
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sh
ire
Ay
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ut
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st
A
Ea
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e
ly
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ve
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ow
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G
la
Sc
ot
la
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C
ity
0
Council
Note that this information relates only to population numbers living in proximity to a
landfill site in 2001. No attempt was made to identify how many people (if any) are
exposed to pollutants from these sites. To determine the specific health risks of these
pollutants it would be necessary to know such factors as prevailing wind direction and
the location of local watercourses 12 .
The report on environmental justice by Fairburn et al (referred to previously) reported
that patterns of relationship between deprivation and landfills were indistinct and that
nationally there is no evidence to suggest that more deprived populations are more
likely than others to live near to landfill sites.
Proximity to EPER sites (sites on the European Pollutant Emissions Register)
Thirty two per cent of the Scottish population lived within two kilometres of an EPER
site (i.e. a site of potential industrial pollution) in 2002 (Figure 6.33). Within the West
of Scotland, 50% of Inverclyde residents, 49% of South Lanarkshire and
Renfrewshire residents respectively lived within two kilometres of an EPER site,
while in Glasgow the figure was 44%.
181
Figure 6.33
Proximity to EPER Sites: % of population living within 2km of a EPER site,
West of Scotland council areas, 2002
Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (from SEPA data)
% of population living within 2km of an EPER site
60
50.4
49.2
48.7
50
43.8
40
36.5
32
31.4
30
25.9
19.2
18.6
20
11.7
10
1
de
ly
rc
ve
In
So
ut
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La
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en
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ire
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rs
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or
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re
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G
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sg
Sc
o
ow
tl a
C
nd
ity
0
Council
Referring again to the recent environmental justice report, a clear relationship
between proximity to sites of potential industrial pollution (IPPC sites xix ) and
deprivation was established, with the highest proportion of people living in proximity
to an IPPC site being found within the most deprived decile (of the SIMD).
Concentrations of such sites were noted particularly in the more deprived parts of
Glasgow. Clusterings of multiple IPPC sites near to more deprived populations was
also noted.
A few other key points from the report on environmental justice – relevant to this, and
other sections, of this chapter – are summarised briefly below. It is likely that the
general summary of relationships between environmental indicators and deprivation
discussed in the report are applicable to Glasgow and the West of Scotland, although
there may be local variation.
x
Industrial pollution, derelict land and river quality were all related to deprivation
with people in the most deprived areas being far more likely to be living in
proximity to these sources of potential negative environmental impact.
x
At a national level and for urban areas, there was no clear relationship between
deprivation and population proximity to landfills, quarries and open cast sites.
xix
IPPC – Industrial Pollution Prevention and Control. IPPC sites are those that fall within the IPPC
Directive and constitute those with the potential to contribute significant levels of polluting emissions
to air, water or land. A proportion of IPPC sites are reported to the European Pollutant Emission
Register (EPER).
182
x
In terms of air quality it is clear that people living in the most deprived areas are
most likely to experience the poorest air quality. This was found to be true for
nitrogen dioxide, PM10, benzene and carbon monoxide but not for sulphur dioxide.
Those areas exceeding the nitrogen dioxide objective (annual mean) are strongly
concentrated in the most deprived areas.
x
People living in more deprived areas are less likely to live near woodland but
there is evidence that new woodland development has been planted to a relatively
greater degree in more deprived areas.
x
The analysis of greenspace showed that both the least and most deprived areas in
Scotland have high percentages of people living near designated local wildlife
sites. A separate more detailed study in Glasgow highlighted the complex issues in
assessing environmental justice in relation to greenspace.
The issue of ‘greenspace’ is discussed further in the final section of the chapter below.
6.6 Greenspace
Glasgow and Clyde Valley Green Network dataset
The importance of greenspace to health and well being has been increasingly
recognised in recent years and, while it will be some time before good quality
greenspace data are available across the whole of Scotland, a recent project has been
instrumental in producing the first detailed categorisation of land usage in the West of
Scotland. This project, jointly commissioned by Forestry Commission Scotland
(FCS), Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plan Joint Committee (GCVSPJC) and
Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH), has produced a GIS xx -based classification of land
usage for the Structure Plan area. This classification divides land usage into the
following broad groupings (and sub groups of): roads, water courses, railways, paths,
buildings, open space xxi (e.g. public parks and gardens, amenity greenspace, sports
areas, woodland, other functional greenspace, etc.) and other open space (e.g.
farmland, moor land). The dataset aims to provide a comprehensive and consistent
mapping of open space across the main urban areas in western Scotland.
The dataset has only recently been produced and requires further quality assurance.
There are currently no concrete examples of its use, but clearly it will be a valuable
resource for planners, particularly for the purposes of regeneration and redesign of
urban land.
Figure 6.34 illustrates this greenspace data on a map stretching from the west end to
the east end of Glasgow.
xx
Geographical Information System.
Based on a modified version of the Scottish Executive’s PAN65 open space typology – further
details are included in Appendix 1.
xxi
183
Figure 6.34
184
Summary
This chapter highlights a number of important issues relevant to the health of the
people of Glasgow and the West of Scotland:
x
There have been major improvements in housing in Glasgow and the West of
Scotland in recent decades. However, serious issues concerning the living
conditions of considerable numbers of the population remain. For example an
estimated 30,000 households in Glasgow have evidence of mould, and 20,000
properties have rising/penetrating damp.
x
There has been a striking decrease in the proportion of the population living in
overcrowded conditions, but equally striking variations in the levels of
overcrowding across the West of Scotland are still evident. Similarly, rates of
owner-occupancy have changed considerably over the past two decades (doubling
between 1981 and 2001) – again, however, considerable variations persist.
x
Data collected by the Keep Scotland Beautiful organisation highlight a number of
environmental issues for many parts of the West of Scotland. Glasgow stands out
with the highest proportion of areas in the city deemed as unacceptably littered.
There are also concerns around the levels of, for example, dog fouling.
x
Unsurprisingly, such environmental concerns are also highlighted as issues by
residents of Glasgow in terms of their perceptions of their neighbourhood. A
number of problems are emphasised, both environmental (e.g. dog dirt, traffic)
and behavioural (e.g. young people hanging around, drink and drug activities).
These issues are more likely to be perceived as problems in the more deprived
parts of the city.
x
Concern over traffic levels are well-founded. Traffic volume has increased year on
year in the West of Scotland in recent times and it is projected to grow further in
the next two decades (with almost a 25% rise in Glasgow predicted by 2021).
x
Glasgow’s more deprived areas are relatively well served by the Council in terms
of accessibility to leisure centres. However, areas have been identified where
access is a major problem.
x
Significant proportions of the population of Glasgow and the West of Scotland
live in proximity to derelict land, landfill sites and sites emitting industrial
pollution.
185
References
1
Communities Scotland. Scottish House Condition Survey 2002. 2003
http://www.shcs.gov.uk/downloads/downloads.htm
2
Glasgow Housing Association. Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy 2005/07.
http://www.gha.org.uk/content/mediaassets/doc/neighbourhoodRstrategy2005_07.pdf
3
Carstairs V, Morris R. Deprivation and Health in Scotland. Aberdeen: Aberdeen
University Press, 1991
4
Scottish Executive. Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/simd2004
5
NHS Health Scotland. Community Health and Well-being Profiles. 2004
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/communityprofiles
6
Keep Scotland Beautiful. Local Environmental Audit and Management System
(LEAMS) Benchmarking Report 2004-2005.
7
Jones R, Borland E, Boyd A, Lorenzetti K, Scouller J, Carey L, Tannahill C. The
Health and Well-being of the Greater Glasgow Population; summary report.
November 2003
http://www.show.scot.nhs.uk/gghb/PubsReps/Reports/health_promotion/health+wellb
eing/health+wellbeing_city_nov03.pdf
8
Halden D, McGuigan D, Nisbet A, McKinnon A, Derek Halden Consultancy.
Accessibility: Review of Measuring Techniques and their Application. 2000
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/cru/resfinds/drf89-00.asp
9
SportScotland. Sport 21 2003-2007: The National Strategy for Sport – Shaping
Scotland’s Future. 2003
http://www.sportscotland.org.uk/ChannelNavigation/Our+activities/TopicNavigation/
Sport+21/
10
Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
http://www.sns.gov.uk
11
Fairburn J, Walker G, and Mitchell G. Investigating environmental justice in
Scotland: links between measures of environmental quality and social deprivation.
Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER). 2005
http://www.sniffer.org.uk/results.asp?bool=OR&proposed=1&active=1&complete=1
&theme=%5BUrban%20Environment%5D&title=Urban%20Environment&location=
research_areas&refer=res_area_waste_1.asp
12
Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
http://www.sns.gov.uk
186
Alcohol is a major cause for concern. There are estimated to be more than 13,500
‘problem alcohol users’ resident within Glasgow City, and since the beginning of the
1990s, there has been a striking increase in numbers of alcohol related deaths and
hospitalisations within the Greater Glasgow area.
Levels of obesity are rising, and in Greater Glasgow one fifth of males and almost a
quarter of females are now estimated to be obese, with well over half classified as
overweight.
Recent years have also seen notable increases in recorded rates of sexually transmitted
infections in Greater Glasgow (and elsewhere).
Drug related deaths in Greater Glasgow are also rising, and there are estimated to be
approximately 25,000 problem drug users in the West of Scotland (of whom more than
11,000 live in Glasgow).
Smoking levels are falling. However, profound inequalities in prevalence persist.
Survey data suggest more people in Greater Glasgow are taking regular exercise,
especially in some of the more deprived areas.
“Since the beginning of the 1990s there has been a striking increase in
numbers of alcohol related deaths and hospitalisations within both
Scotland and the Greater Glasgow area.”
“A fifth of males and almost a quarter of females in Greater Glasgow are
now estimated to be obese, with well over half classified as overweight.”
“As is the case nationally, smoking rates in Glasgow have fallen considerably in the last thirty years.”
Chapter 7: Behaviour
Summary
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 7: Behaviour
This chapter summarises current trends in a selection of health related behaviours
among the population of Glasgow and the West of Scotland. As with other chapters, it
is not – and cannot be – a comprehensive list of all the factors relevant to this topic,
but it attempts to cover what most would agree are the key issues. These are (in no
particular order): alcohol, drugs misuse, smoking, obesity, diet, oral health, sexual
health, and physical activity.
7.1 Alcohol
Alcohol consumption
It is notoriously difficult to determine levels of alcohol consumption within
communities accurately. However, the most recent data available (from the 2003
Scottish Health Survey) suggest that approximately 24% of adults (ages 16+) in
Greater Glasgow (32% of males, 17% of females) were exceeding the recommended
weekly limits i . These are higher than the overall figures for Scotland (20% overall,
27% of males, 14% of females).
Restricting the age group to 16-64 only, we can show a trend in excess alcohol
consumption from the 1995, 1998 and 2003 surveys. Overall levels in Greater
Glasgow have increased slightly (from 24% to 27%), but as Figure 7.1 shows, the
survey suggests a decrease in consumption among males, and an increase among
females.
Figure 7.1
% of adults (aged 16-64) exceeding weekly recommended units of alcohol,
Greater Glasgow, 1995, 1998 & 2003
Source: Scottish Health Surveys
40.0
37.6
36.6
35.0
32.3
% of adults aged 16-64
30.0
25.0
21.1
20.0
15.0
14.4
13.9
10.0
Males
5.0
Females
0.0
1995
i
1998
2003
21 units per week for males; 14 units per week for females.
189
Problem alcohol use
Estimates of the number of ‘problem alcohol users’ within Glasgow City have been
calculated by the Centre for Drugs Misuse at Glasgow University as part of a report
on children affected by parental substance misuse in Glasgow 1 (this is discussed in
more detail in Chapter 9: Children and adolescents). The authors calculate that more
than 13,500 such users are resident within Glasgow, approximately 80% of whom are
male. The breakdown of numbers (presented as a percentage of the population aged
15-64) in each Glasgow City Council Social Work Area Service Team area ii is shown
in Figure 7.2. However, it should be emphasised that these figures are statistically
modelled estimates and, given the lack of any accurate data on prevalence of problem
alcohol use in Glasgow (as acknowledged by the report’s authors), it is extremely
difficult to gauge the accuracy of these findings.
Figure 7.2
Estimated prevalence of 'problem alcohol use' within Glasgow City, 2003
Source: University of Glasgow Centre for Drugs Misuse Research
6.0
% of population aged 15-64
5.0
Glasgow City: 3.4%
(13,650 individuals)
5.0
4.0
3.4
3.3
3.3
West
South East
3.7
3.8
North
Greater
Pollok
3.9
3.4
3.1
3.0
2.0
1.8
1.0
0.0
Glasgow City
North West
South
North East
South West
East
Glasgow City Council Social Work Area Service Team
Drunk-driving
Approximately 4,500 drunk-driving offences were recorded in the West of Scotland in
2003, of which over one third (1,666) took place within the Glasgow City Council
area. As a rate per head of population, Glasgow has the highest recorded rates of
drunk-driving offences in the West of Scotland: 3.6 per 1,000 population, compared to
the national figure of 2.9 and a rate of 2.7 for all the West of Scotland council areas
(Figure 7.3) (although clearly a proportion of offences recorded in Glasgow may
relate to residents of other areas). As detailed in the subsequent chart (Figure 7.4),
trends over the past five years have been relatively flat.
ii
Areas with an average population of around 65,000 (ranging from just under 35,000 to over 94,000).
190
Figure 7.3
Drunk-driving offences, rate per 1000 population aged 17+, 2003
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Scottish Executive Justice Department
4.5
Number of offences:
Scotland: 11,566
West of Scotland: 4,544
Glasgow: 1,666
Rate per 1000 population aged 17+
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.0
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.5
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.0
0.5
ar
ks
hi
re
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nd
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of
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ot
la
Sc
ot
la
nd
0.0
Council
Figure 7.4
Drunk-driving offences 1999-2003, rate per 1000 population aged 17+,
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Scottish Executive Justice Department
4.0
Glasgow City
Scotland
3.5
Rate per 1000 population aged 17+
North Lanarkshire
3.0
East Ayrshire
2.5
West Dunbartonshire
Inverclyde
2.0
South Ayrshire
1.5
North Ayrshire
South Lanarkshire
1.0
Renfrewshire
0.5
East Renfrewshire
0.0
East Dunbartonshire
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
191
Alcohol related / attributable hospitalisations
Figure 7.5 shows that the alcohol related and attributable hospitalisation rate of the
majority of the West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow ‘communities’ iii, 2 in the period
1999-2001 exceeded the national figure, and that the rate in Bridgeton & Dennistoun
(the area with the highest recorded figures) was more than twice the national rate and
more than four times the level recorded in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie. The
figure for Scotland increased by almost 50% between 1990/92 and 1999/01. Figure
7.6 shows that this rate of increase is generally matched, and in some cases exceeded,
by that of the Greater Glasgow communities.
Figure 7.5
Alcohol related/attributable hospital admissions, 1999-2001
Average annual age-standardised rates per 100,000 population,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
Age-standardised rate per 100,000 pop
3000
2427
2500
2072
2000
1696
1479 1530
1500
1315 1334
1225 1269
1156 1163 1168 1179 1215 1218 1221
1077 1131
1049
1000
744
566
795
905
911
923
950
609
500
An
ni
es
la
nd
/B
ea
Sc
rs
ot
de
la
nd
n/
M
iln
ga
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e
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en
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&
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e
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Community
iii
These are primary care-based localities (mainly the old Local Healthcare Cooperative (LHCC) areas
or, in some cases, the new Community Health (Care) Partnerships (CH(C)Ps)) with populations
ranging from 20,000-140,000 people. For further details see ‘Preface to Chapters 2-12’.
192
Figure 7.6
Alcohol related & attributable hospital admissions
Age-standardised rates, 1990/92 - 1999/01, Greater Glasgow communities
Ave. annual age-standardised rate per 100,000 pop
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
3,000.0
Bridgeton & Dennistoun
2,500.0
Maryhill/Woodside & N
Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South East Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
2,000.0
Cambuslang & Rutherglen
Clydebank & Drumchapel
1,500.0
Greater Shawlands
Glasgow West End
1,000.0
Scotland
Strathkelvin
500.0
Eastwood
Anniesl'd/Bearsdn/Milngavie
0.0
1990 - 1992
1993 - 1995
1996 - 1998
1999 - 2001
Furthermore, at a small-area level, differences in rates of increase between areas in
Greater Glasgow/West of Scotland with the lowest rates of hospitalisation and those
with the highest are even more striking. This is shown in Figure 7.7 where a widening
gap between the two sets of areas is also visible. (Note, however, that 95% confidence
intervals are not shown on this graph, many
ny of which will be overlapping at the
postcode sector level given the relatively small populations involved.)
Figure 7.7
Alcohol related/attributable hospital admissions, 1990/92 - 1999/01
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
Ave. annual age-standardised rate per 100,000 pop
4,500
Townhead
Ayr - Harbour and W Town Centre
4,000
Tradeston; Gorbals
Dalmarnock
3,500
Hamiltonhill
Bridgeton E
Ibrox
3,000
Govan
Easterhouse W
2,500
Ferguslie Park
Scotland
2,000
Clarkston
Hyndland; Dowanhill
1,500
Lugton; Dunlop
Bearsden - Kessington
1,000
Houston
Milngavie - Keystone; Dougalston
Kilmacolm
500
Cathcart
Bearsden - Kilmardinny
0
1990 - 1992
1993 - 1995
1996 - 1998
1999 - 2001
Broom; Kirkhill; Mearns
193
Alcohol related mortality
Figure 7.8 shows the number of alcohol related deaths for the Greater Glasgow area
between 1980 and 2003. The overall number of deaths for this cause remained
reasonably constant throughout the 1980s, but increased strikingly in the subsequent
decade with a four-fold increase evident between 1991 and 2002. This is principally
due to the increase in deaths among men, although it should be noted that the number
of female deaths also more than doubled over the period shown.
Figure 7.8
Numbers of alcohol related deaths by year and sex, Greater Glasgow 1980-2003
Principal ("underlying") and Secondary ("contributing") Causes of Death
Source: GRO(S)
600
500
Number of deaths
400
300
200
100
0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Male
Female
Total
In 1980 alcohol related deaths in Greater Glasgow accounted for just 2% of all male
deaths in the area, and 4.6% of all male premature (age <65) deaths. By 2003, these
figures had risen to 7% and 17% respectively. Further details of causes of premature
death in Glasgow and the West of Scotland are presented in Chapter 11: Illness and
disease.
Liver cirrhosis
Looking at one subset of alcohol related mortality – liver cirrhosis – Figure 7.9
presents mortality rates from this cause for Greater Glasgow, and Scotland, in a
European context (the green trend lines represent the minimum, maximum and mean
values in each year for 16 Western European countries iv ).
iv
Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, N. Ireland, Netherlands, Norway,
Portugal, Scotland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, England & Wales. Other relevant definitions are
detailed in Appendix 1.
194
Figure 7.9
Liver cirrhosis mortality age standardised rates among men aged 15-74 years
Scotland and Greater Glasgow in the context of maximum, minimum, and mean rates for 16
Western European countries
Source: WHOSIS
Rate per 100.000 population per year
100
80
Greater Glasgow
60
Maximum
40
Mean
20
Scotland
0
1950
Minimum
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year of death
This shows that, in a European context, cirrhosis mortality rates in Greater Glasgow in
the 1970s and 1980s were consistently at, or below, the European average; between
1990 and 2001, however, mortality increased sharply to a level far in excess of both
the European average and maximum values.
This information is considered further at the end of this chapter.
7.2 Drugs misuse
Drugs misuse prevalence
Analyses carried out by Glasgow University Centre for Drugs Misuse Research and
the Scottish Centre for Infection and Environmental Health v calculated that in 2003
there were an estimated 51,500 ‘problem drug users vi ’ between the ages of 15 and 54
in Scotland 3 . Of these, almost half were resident in the West of Scotland, with over
11,200 living in Glasgow (Figure 7.10).
v
vi
Now renamed NHS Health Protection Scotland.
Defined as individuals ‘misusing opiates or benzodiazepines’.
195
Figure 7.10
Location of 'problem drug users' (aged 15-54) in Scotland, 2003
Source: Glasgow University/SCIEH
Edinburgh City
5,667 (11%)
Aberdeen City
2,810 (5%)
Dundee
2,522 (5%)
Other West of Scotland councils
(excl. Glasgow)
14,111 (27%)
Rest of Scotland
15,237 (30%)
Glasgow City
11,235 (22%)
Proportionally,
lly, Glasgow City has the highest level of problem drug users among the
West of Scotland council areas (over 3% of 15-54 year olds), with East
Dunbartonshire the council with the lowest (0.7%). This is illustrated in Figure 7.11.
Figure 7.11
Estimated proportion of 'problem drug users' (aged 15-54), 2003
Source: Glasgow University/SCIEH
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.4
1.5
1.1
1.0
0.7
0.5
ve
rc
ly
de
In
hi
re
w
sh
ire
R
en
fre
Ay
st
es
tD
un
ba
W
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rto
ns
rs
hi
re
rs
hi
re
Ay
h
rs
hi
re
So
ut
Ay
N
or
th
La
na
fre
w
rk
sh
ire
sh
ire
h
So
ut
st
R
en
La
n
Ea
rto
ns
N
or
th
D
un
ba
Ea
st
ar
ks
hi
re
hi
re
ity
C
la
sg
ow
te
r
re
a
G
G
G
la
s
co
tla
fS
es
to
W
go
w
nd
0.0
Sc
ot
la
nd
% of population aged 15-54
2.6
2.5
Council
196
In terms of trends, there was no significant change in problem drug use prevalence in
Scotland between 2000 and 2003. However, rates in three of the West of Scotland
councils did change significantly: Glasgow (where rates decreased from 3.9% to 3.3%
– a 15% decrease), North Lanarkshire (32% decrease), and South Ayrshire (124%
increase). This is shown (with 95% confidence intervals) in Figure 7.12.
Figure 7.12
Estimated proportion of 'problem drug users' (aged 15-54), 2000 vs. 2003
Source: Glasgow University/SCIEH
5.0
4.5
% of population aged 15-54
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Inverclyde 2003
Inverclyde 2000
Renfrewshire 2003
Renfrewshire 2000
West Dunbartonshire 2003
West Dunbartonshire 2000
East Ayrshire 2003
East Ayrshire 2000
South Ayrshire 2003
South Ayrshire 2000
North Ayrshire 2003
North Ayrshire 2000
South Lanarkshire 2003
South Lanarkshire 2000
East Renfrewshire 2003
East Renfrewshire 2000
North Lanarkshire 2003
North Lanarkshire 2000
East Dunbartonshire 2003
East Dunbartonshire 2000
Glasgow City 2003
Glasgow City 2000
Scotland 2003
Scotland 2000
0.0
Council/Year
Within Greater Glasgow, there is more than seventy fold variation between the
estimated drug misuse prevalence rates in the LHCC vii area with the lowest rates,
Anniesland & Bearsden (0.15 per 100 population aged 15-54), and the area with the
highest, Dennistoun (11.2 per 100). This is shown in Figure 7.13 (but note that these
are again modelled estimates and the figures should therefore be interpreted with
caution viii ).
vii
Local Health Care Cooperative. LHCCs have now been replaced by the new Community Health
Partnerships (CHPs) (Community Health and Care Partnerships (CHCPs) within Glasgow).
viii
The report authors note that the prevalence estimate for Glasgow is “more reliable and robust that
the estimates for the smaller LHCC areas”. It should also be noted that the estimates at LHCC level
were based on aggregations of data at the postcode district level (e.g. G31) – thus the definition of an
LHCC area may differ considerably from recognised LHCC boundaries.
197
Figure 7.13
Estimated proportion of 'problem drug users' (aged 15-54)
within Greater Glasgow LHCC areas, 2003
Source: Glasgow University/SCIEH
12
11.2
% of population aged 15-54
10
8
7.3
6.4
6
4.8
4.0
4
1.8
2
0.6
0.6
0.2
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.2
3.4
3.0
2.8
2.6
un
on
D
en
ni
st
o
Br
id
ge
t
ne
ha
w
la
th
nd
W
s
es
tG
la
sg
Ea
ow
st
er
n
G
So
la
sg
ut
ow
h
Ea
st
G
l
as
M
go
ar
w
yh
ill/
W
oo
ds
id
e
D
ru
m
ch
ap
N
el
or
th
G
la
sg
ow
So
u
rS
es
tO
re
at
e
G
rs
id
e/
W
R
iv
e
C
am
gl
en
an
k
n
C
ly
de
b
ke
lv
i
tw
oo
d
St
ra
th
en
Ea
s
Be
ar
sd
An
Al
l
G
G
ni
es
la
nd
/
LH
C
C
Sc
ot
la
ar
ea
s
nd
0
LHCC area
Drugs related deaths
Between 1997 and 2001 there were 765 drugs related deaths in the West of Scotland,
of which 459 (60%) related to residents of Greater Glasgow communities. Figure 7.14
shows the total five year figure, expressed as a crude rate per 100,000 population, for
West of Scotland communities: Bridgeton & Dennistoun clearly stands out with more
than seven times the national rate.
Figure 7.14
Drugs related deaths over 5 years (1997-2001) per 100,000 population;
West of Scotland and Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from GRO(S) data)
250
201
Crude rate per 100,000
200
150
99
100
50
27
16
<5
16
23
25
26
27
28
29
29
29
31
32
34
34
38
41
44
53
54
62
70
71
<5
An
ni
es
la
n
d/
B
ea
rs
d
Sc
en otla
n
/M
iln d
ga
C
vi
ly
de e
C
um sda
C
am
be le
rn
bu
a
sl
Ea uld
an
st
g
w
&
Ai
oo
R
rd
d
rie uth
er
&
gl
C
oa en
tb
rid
Ea
ge
st
Ki
lb
St
rid
ra
e
So th k
el
ut
vi
h
Ay n
rs
hi
r
W e
R
i
sh
en
a
fre
w
H
w
a
Ea mi
&
lto
W
st
C
e
Ay n
ly
d e st R
rs
ba
h
e
nk nfre ire
w
&
sh
D
ru
i
m re
ch
M ape
Pa
ot
is
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N
le
o
rw
y
el
an rth
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A
d
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r
e
rn
Va
lle
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re
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L
at
er om
G
Sh on
la
d
aw
sg
la
So ow
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W
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So
as t E
ut
t G nd
h
la
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es sgo
tG
w
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la
ar
sg
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o
In
ill/
ve w
W Eas
rc
oo
t
ly
ds ern
de
id
G
Br
e
l
as
id
&
go
ge
N
w
to
G
n
la
&
sg
D
en ow
ni
st
ou
n
0
Community
198
Figure 7.15 shows the total number of drugs related deaths by year between 1996 and
2004, for the Greater Glasgow area. The numbers have risen by a third over the
period, although there has been some year-on-year fluctuation within that overall
trend.
Figure 7.15
Numbers of drugs related deaths 1996-2004, Greater Glasgow
Source: GRO(S)
140
120
Number of deaths
100
80
60
40
20
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
7.3 Smoking
Smoking prevalence
Unfortunately, no long term trend in smoking prevalence in Glasgow is available.
However, we know that, as is the case nationally, adult smoking rates have fallen
considerably in the last thirty years. Figure 7.16 shows that the current rate in
Glasgow (from the 2003/04 Scottish Household Survey) is about 33% for adults (aged
16+). This exceeds the national figure of 27%, but represents a slight fall since the
1999/2000 survey.
199
Figure 7.16
Percentage of adults smoking, 1999/00 - 2002/03
Source: Scottish Household Survey
40
35
30
% of adults
25
20
15
10
Glasgow City
5
Scotland
0
1999/2000
2000/2001
2002/2003
To look at how current smoking prevalence varies within Greater Glasgow and the
West of Scotland we can use the modelled estimates produced by Portsmouth
University for NHS Health Scotland (and used in the Community Profiles). Again, as
with all modelled estimates, the accuracy is uncertain. Nevertheless, the relative
variations in smoking prevalence between different areas are likely to be reasonably
robust ix .
Figure 7.17 shows that Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie are the
communities which have the lowest estimated smoking prevalence (22%), while the
estimated prevalence of smoking is double this in four other Greater Glasgow
communities – Clydebank & Drumchapel, South West Glasgow, Bridgeton &
Dennistoun and Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow.
ix
Note also that the estimates are based on 1995 and 1998 Scottish Health Survey data. As Figure 7.16
shows, smoking prevalence in Glasgow is likely to have fallen slightly since then.
200
Figure 7.17
Estimated smoking prevalence (16-74 years of age), 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles, 2004 (from modelled estimates produced by Portsmouth University)
Estimated % of 16-74 year-olds who smoke
60.0
51
50
50.0
40.0
35
34
33
32
31
31
38
38
38
38
37
36
35
43
40
40
39
39
39
47
46
44
28
30.0
22
22
20.0
10.0
An
ni
es
la
nd
/B
Sc
ot
la
ea
Ea nd
rs
s
tw
de
oo
n/
d
M
iln
ga
St
vi
ra
e
th
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in
st
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r
en
i
C
de
ly
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w
So des
&
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ut
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Ay e
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en shir
e
fr e
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rn
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C
am
ld
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on
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Pa ng
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am
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Le
r
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ow V a l
G
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re
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at
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t
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aw
la
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st
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rs
or
h
ir
th
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rs
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re
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is
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In
ve w
rc
ly
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M
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rd
rie oth
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oa ell
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h
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e
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ly
la
st
de
sg
e
ba
rn
ow
nk
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la
&
sg
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D
ow
ru
ut
m
h
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Br
ch
W
ar
id
ap
es
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ill/
to
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n
la
sg
&
oo
D
ow
ds
e
nn
id
e
is
&
to
N
un
G
la
sg
ow
0.0
Community
At a postcode sector level (Figuree 7.18) the differences between the ten areas with the
highest prevalence and the ten areas with the lowest prevalence are much wider,
showing on average at least a three-fold variation. While the areas of lowest
prevalence have levels of smoking 15-20% lower than the Scottish average (35%), in
the areas of highest prevalence the rates are at least 25% higher, and in some areas are
estimated to be above 60%.
Figure 7.18
Estimated smoking prevalence (16-74 years of age), 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from estimates produced by Portsmouth University)
70
63
62
60
60
59
59
58
58
58
58
60
50
40
35
30
20
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
16
10
ho
er
st
Ea
m
ru
D
W
E
us
e
N
rk
el
na
ap
ch
on
hi
r la
Ba
ilt
am
H
ad
G
ar
ng
ru
D
ll
on
st
W
;R
ap
ch
m
er
st
Ea
oy
el
e
E
an
ho
us
ov
S
G
ad
Pa
rk
he
ad
ec
he
rk
Pa
m
br
st
Du
ou
N
k
on
m
ol
H
lm
ac
Ki
Th
or
n
ck
hi
ll;
sd
ar
Be
Be
ar
en
sd
-C
en
as
-K
tle
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G
la
iff
rk
di
st
no
on
y
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ng
ilm
ar
es
-K
en
sd
ar
nn
n
ay
w
si
lo
Al
nf
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oo
Be
oo
m
;K
irk
hi
oo
t;
ll;
Sc
M
ot
ea
la
rn
s
nd
0
Br
Estimated % of 16-74 year-olds who smoke
80
Postcode sector
201
Smoking attributable deaths
The estimates of smoking attributable death rates presented here are subject to the
same caveats about accuracy as the smoking prevalence estimates (from which they
were in part derived) discussed in the previous section. Despite this, relative
differences between communities are again likely to be reasonably robust. Figure 7.19
shows that Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie, Eastwood and Strathkelvin are the
communities with the lowest rates, while – in contrast – in South West Glasgow,
Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow, and Bridgeton & Dennistoun rates of death
attributable to smoking are at least twice as high.
Figure 7.19
Smoking Attributable Deaths (ages 35+), 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles, 2004
900
Crude rate per 100,000 population aged 35+
816
800
734
700
647
599
600
500
400
400
309
300
239
325
346
368
375
387
391
421
429
434
462
465
473
477
492
493
509
520
527
558
244
200
100
An
n
ie
sl
an
d,
Be
ar
sd
en
&
Sc
ot
la
nd
M
iln
ga
Ea vie
st
w
oo
St
d
ra
th
ke
Ea
lv
in
st
Ki
R
lb
en
C
rid
um
f re
e
be
w
an
rn
a
d
ul
C
W
d
ly
es
de
tR
sd
en
al
e
f re
w
sh
ire
Lo
So
m
on
ut
h
d
Ay
rs
hi
re
H
am
N
or
ilt
o
th
Ay n
rs
Ai
E
hi
rd
as
re
rie
t
an Ayr
sh
d
ire
C
o
Pa
at
br
is
le
id
y
ge
an Mo
th
d
e
Le
rw
ve
el
G
l
re
rn
at
Va
er
lle
Sh
y
aw
la
nd
s
W
is
ha
w
C
am
gl
en
G
In
la
v
er
sg
cl
o
y
w
S
de
C
ou
W
ly
th
e
de
Ea st E
ba
st
nd
nk
G
an
la
d
sg
D
ow
ru
Ea
m
M
ch
st
ar
ap
er
So
yh
n
el
ut
ill,
G
h
la
W
W
oo
es s g o
ds
w
t
Br
G
id
la
id
sg
ge e &
ow
N
to
.
n
a n Gla
sg
d
ow
D
en
ni
st
ou
n
0
Community
A great deal of caution should be exercised when inspecting the smoking attributable
death rates at a postcode sector level given the previously mentioned caveats over the
accuracy of these estimates, which are particularly pertinent for small areas.
Nevertheless, as Figure 7.20 illustrates, it is clear that many of the most deprived parts
of Glasgow have the highest rates of death attributable to smoking. In contrast the
areas with the lowest rates are geographically dispersed but clearly more affluent and
with less health problems in general.
202
Figure 7.20
Smoking Attributable Deaths (ages 35+), 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
1400
1200
1000
914
922
957
980
1001
1001
1026
1041
1063
1119
800
600
400
400
<5
cases
<5
cases
<5
cases
196
193
153
200
198
214
214
<5
cases
ll
R
uc
hi
Tr
oo
n-
M
C
al
to
n
Le
nz
Th
ie
or
S;
n
ui
Au
rh
ea
ch
d;
in
lo
Lo
ch
an
s;
H
Ba
ut
ch
ra
es
ss
on
ie
to
Ki
w
lm
n;
ac
G
or
ol
ba
m
ls
;O
at
la
nd
Ea
s
st
er
ho
us
e
W
Br
id
ge
to
n
E
H
am
ilt
on
hi
ll
D
al
m
ar
no
ck
Pa
rk
he
ad
S
To
w
nh
G
ea
re
en
d
oc
k
C
en
t ra
l
M
ea
rn
s
as
tle
hi
ll;
-C
en
on
st
on
la
rk
hi
ll;
G
le
n
H
ou
st
C
;K
irk
W
Fr
ui
n
Br
oo
m
Be
ar
sd
C
um
be
rn
au
ld
Vi
lla
ge
;
D
ul
la
tu
r
em
ys
s
Ba
y
0
Sc
ot
la
nd
Crude rate per 100,000 population aged 35+
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles, 2004
Postcode sector
7.4 Obesity
Data from the most recent Scottish Health Survey (2003) estimate that more than half
the adult female population of Greater Glasgow is overweight (55%), while the same
is true of more than six out of ten adult males (63%). Furthermore, almost one in four
females (24%) and more than one in five males (21.5%) were classed as obese x .
These are similar to the figures for all Scotland (females: 60% overweight, 26%
obese; males: 65% overweight, 22% obese). These data are summarised in Figure
7.21.
x
Overweight – body mass index (BMI) greater than 25; obese – BMI greater than 30.
203
Figure 7.21
% of overweight & obese adults (aged 16+), Greater Glasgow and Scotland, 2003
Source: Scottish Health Survey
70
65.4
63.2
59.7
60
54.7
% of adults (16+)
50
40
30
26
23.9
22.4
21.5
20
10
0
Males
Females
Males
Greater Glasgow
Females
Scotland
Overweight
Obese
Restricting the
he adult respondents in the survey to ages 16-64, we can show a trend in
the levels of obesity from the 1995, 1998 and 2003 surveys. This is presented in
Figure 7.22, showing a clear rise in levels of obesity for males and females.
Figure 7.22
% of adults (aged 16-64) classed as obese (BMI>30),
Greater Glasgow, 1995, 1998 & 2003
Source: Scottish Health Surveys
25
21.9
% of adults (16-64)
20
19.8
16.4
15
14.8
10
5
Males
Females
0
1995
1998
2003
As discussed in Chapter 9: Children and adolescents, childhood obesity has also
reached worrying levels.
204
7.5 Diet
Detailed information on many aspects of diet is available from the Greater Glasgow
Health and Well-being Survey 4 and the 2003 Scottish Health Survey 5 . One illustrative
example (from the Greater Glasgow survey) is presented here, namely fruit and
vegetable consumption.
Figure 7.23 shows that one quarter of the population of Greater Glasgow does not eat
any fresh fruit on a daily basis. However, this figure differs significantly between the
three deprivation groupings used, ranging from just 11% in the least deprived areas
(as defined by Carstairs deprivation 6 categories 1 and 2) to 31% in the most deprived
(categories 6 and 7).
Figure 7.23
Diet: % of respondents who on average eat no portions of fruit per day
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
35
31.2
30
% of respondents
25
24.2
21.0
20
15
10.9
10
5
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
Figure 7.24 shows similar figures for vegetables/salad (excluding potatoes). Overall,
13.5% of the population do not eat vegetables/salad daily. However, the figure is as
low as 5% in the more affluent parts of Greater Glasgow, and as high as 17.5% in the
most deprived areas.
205
Figure 7.24
Diet: % of respondents who on average eat no portions
of vegetables (excl. potatoes) or salad per day
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
20
17.5
18
16
% of respondents
14
13.5
12.1
12
10
8
6
5.0
4
2
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
The minimum guideline for fruit and vegetable consumption is five or more portions
of fresh fruit and vegetables per day. Figure 7.25 shows that overall, 34% of the
Greater Glasgow population were meeting this target in 2002. However, there were
significant differences between sub-categories of the population with the proportion
meeting the target ranging from 29% (most deprived areas) to 42% (least deprived).
Although not shown here, the overall figure in the 1999 survey was 25%: thus, there
has been a significant increase over four years. However, separate analysis of the data
for SIP xi and non-SIP areas showed that this increase only took place in non-SIP
areas, potentially increasing the health gap between more and less affluent
communities in Greater Glasgow.
Furthermore, it should be noted that the 2003 Scottish Health Survey suggests
considerably fewer residents of Greater Glasgow are meeting this target (21%) than
the Greater Glasgow survey found in 2002.
xi
Social Inclusion Partnership.
206
Figure 7.25
Diet: % of respondents who on average eat five or more
portions of fruit & vegetabes each day
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
100
90
80
% of respondents
70
60
50
42.5
40
37.1
34.1
28.9
30
20
10
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
7.6 Oral health
A more detailed analysis of oral health of children is contained in Chapter 9: Children
and adolescents, but two questions asked of adults in the 1999 and 2002 Greater
Glasgow Health and Well-being Surveys are of potential interest here.
At the time of the 2002 survey, one in three of the Greater Glasgow population had
not visited a dentist in over 15 months, with statistically significant differences
between the three deprivation groupings used: ranging from 23% in the least deprived
areas to 38% in the most deprived (Figure 7.26). These figures were not significantly
different to those recorded in the 1999 survey.
207
Figure 7.26
Oral health: % of respondents who had not been to
the dentist in over 15 months
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
45
40
38.4
35
33.1
30.7
% of respondent
30
25
23.1
20
15
10
5
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
A similar proportion of the population (33%) stated in 2002 that they brush their teeth
less than twice a day (Figure 7.27). Again, this was not significantly different to the
1999 figures, but again there were significant differences between sub-categories of
the population: 25% in the least deprived areas, 40% in the most deprived.
Figure 7.27
Oral health: % of respondents who brush their teeth less than twice a day
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
45
40.3
40
35
33.2
% of respondents
30
26.5
25.7
25
20
15
10
5
0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
208
7.7 Sexual health
Only one indicator of sexual health is considered here: sexually transmitted infections
(STIs). However, given current trends it is arguably one of the most important.
Figure 7.28 shows so-called acute STI rates for the Greater Glasgow area (and
Scotland) between 1996 and 2004. Acute STIs include: infectious syphilis,
gonorrhoea, chlamydia, genital herpes (first episode only), genital warts (first episode
only), non-specific genital infections (non-chlamydial), trichomoniasis, HIV infection
(newly diagnosed only), and ‘other acute STIs’ xii .
Figure 7.28
Acute Sexually Transmitted Infection Rates, Greater Glasgow & Scotland
Source: ISD Scotland
900
Crude rate per 100,000 15-64 year-olds
800
700
600
500
Greater Glasgow
400
Scotland
300
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
The numbers of acute STI diagnoses are expressed as a crude rate per 100,000
population aged 15-64. For Greater Glasgow, there has been a 93% increase over
eight years. The equivalent figure for Scotland is 71%. In terms of actual numbers,
the total number of recorded diagnoses within Greater Glasgow in 1996 was 2,100
and this had increased to over 4,000 by 2004. The total figure for all Scotland in 2004
was almost 19,000.
Note, however, that these figures may be influenced by proximity to genito-urinary
medicine services, and it is possible that the higher rate of increase in Greater
Glasgow reflects higher levels of screening in the area. Despite these caveats, the
figures are clearly a cause for concern.
xii
NB this group of diagnoses does not, therefore, include: other acquired syphilis, congenital syphilis,
genital herpes recurrence, genital warts recurrence/reregistered.
209
7.8 Physical activity
Two aspects of physical activity are presented in this final section of the chapter: the
proportion of Glaswegians meeting nationally set targets for physical exercise (from
the Greater Glasgow Health and Well-being surveys), and the proportion of the
population travelling to work or study by bike or on foot (from the 2001 Census).
Figure 7.29 shows that in 2002 just over a fifth of the population of Greater Glasgow
met one of the minimum exercise targets, taking at least 20 minutes of vigorous
exercise three or more times per week. It is notable that this figure did not differ
significantly across the three deprivation groupings shown.
Figure 7.29
Exercise: % of respondents taking at least 20 minutes of
vigorous exercise 3 or more times per week
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
30.0
24.5
25.0
22.8
21.4
20.4
% of respondents
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
However, over half (55%) the Greater Glasgow respondents met the less demanding
target of taking either 20 minutes of vigorous exercise three or more times per week
or 30 minutes of moderate exercise five or more times per week. These data are
shown in Figure 7.30.
210
Figure 7.30
Exercise: % of respondents taking at least 20 minutes of vigorous exercise 3+ times per week
or 30 minutes of moderate exercise 5+ times per week
Source: NHSGG Health/Well-Being Survey, 2002
70.0
59.0
60.0
55.0
53.0
50.0
% of respondents
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
All (Greater Glasgow)
1-2 (least deprived)
3-5
6-7 (most deprived)
Carstairs Deprivation Category
Figure 7.30 also shows that significantly more respondents (59%) in the most
deprived areas were meeting this target. Furthermore, although not illustrated here,
comparison with the 1999 survey shows that there was a significant increase in the
proportion of the population living in SIP areas who were taking this level of exercise
– from 48% to 61%. There was no significant increase for the rest of the population.
The 2003 Scottish Health Survey presents data on a more recent physical activity
target (30 minutes or more moderate or vigorous activity at least five days a week).
This showed that in Greater Glasgow 36% of adults (aged 16-74) met this target,
which was significantly higher than the figure recorded in the 1998 Scottish Health
Survey (28.5%) 7 .
Finally, Figure 7.31 shows the percentage of the population who travel to their place
of work/study by bicycle, foot and car. This shows that in Glasgow considerably
fewer individuals travel to work/study by car than is the case nationally (40%
compared to the Scotland figure of 54%), and that more people regularly commute on
foot or by bicycle. That said, we have already shown in Chapter 4: Economic factors
that car ownership in Glasgow is rising, and, as discussed in the previous chapter,
future projections in traffic volume show arguably unsustainable increases. Thus, this
picture may change in the near future.
211
Figure 7.31
Travel to place of work or study* by bicycle/foot and car, 2001
Source: 2001 Census
70
bike/foot
car
% of population working/studying*
60
54
61
60
59
59
59
58
57
56
55
52
50
40
40
30
28
25
23
21
20
20
22
20
19
23
20
19
15
10
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Council
* Excludes those working/studying at home
212
Summary
A number of worrying trends are highlighted in this chapter:
x
Alcohol is a major cause for concern. There are estimated to be more than 13,500
‘problem alcohol users’ resident within Glasgow City and, since the beginning of
the 1990s, there has been a striking increase in numbers of alcohol related deaths
and hospitalisations within both Scotland and the Greater Glasgow area. By 2003,
17% of all premature deaths among males in Greater Glasgow were related to
alcohol, while liver cirrhosis mortality rates among males exceeded the maximum
national figure in Western Europe.
x
The increase in the levels of obesity among adults in Greater Glasgow is also
worrying. A fifth of males and almost a quarter of females are now estimated to be
obese, with well over half classified as overweight.
x
In eight years (from 1996 to 2004), recorded rates in acute sexually transmitted
infections have almost doubled. Although some of this increase may in part be due
to better screening, this is an important problem in Glasgow (as it is elsewhere in
Scotland).
x
Over the same eight-year period, drug related deaths in Greater Glasgow have
risen by a third. There are estimated to be around 25,000 ‘problem drug users’ in
the West of Scotland (of whom more than 11,000 live in Glasgow).
x
Better news is evident in terms of the overall downward trend in smoking.
Nonetheless, it remains one of the commonest causes of preventable mortality and
demonstrates profound inequalities in its distribution.
x
Survey results also suggest that further good news is provided by the number of
people within the more deprived areas of Greater Glasgow who are taking regular
exercise.
213
References
1
Hay G, Gannon M, McKeganey N. Estimating the number of children affected by
parental substance misuse in Glasgow (University of Glasgow Centre for Drug
Misuse Research report for Glasgow City Council Addiction Services). June 2005
2
NHS Health Scotland. Constituency Health and Well-being Profiles. 2004
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/constituencyprofiles
3
Hay G, Gannon M, McKeganey N, Hutchinson S, Goldberg D. Estimating the
National and Local Prevalence of Problem Drug Misuse in Scotland. January 2005
http://www.drugmisuse.isdscotland.org/ publications/local/prevreport2004.pdf
4
Jones R, Borland E, Boyd A, Lorenzetti K, Scouller J, Carey L, Tannahill C. The
Health and Well-being of the Greater Glasgow Population; summary report.
November 2003
http://www.show.scot.nhs.uk/gghb/PubsReps/Reports/health_promotion/health+wellb
eing/health+wellbeing_city_nov03.pdf
5
Scottish Executive. The Scottish Health Survey 2003.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/11/25145024/50251
6
Carstairs V, Morris R. Deprivation and Health in Scotland. Aberdeen: Aberdeen
University Press, 1991
7
Scottish Executive. The Scottish Health Survey 1998.
http://www.show.scot.nhs.uk/scottishhealthsurvey/
214
Teenage pregnancies for 13-19 year olds have reduced nationally and, although the
gap (compared to Scotland) has reduced, Glasgow still has a higher than average
teenage pregnancy rate.
There is a gap of ten years in the age of first time mothers across West of Scotland
communities with mothers in more deprived communities likely to have their first child at
a much younger age.
However, trends indicate that proportionately more and more babies are being born to
older mothers – in 2004 almost 50% of births were to mothers of 30 years of age or
older.
Despite reductions nationally and across deprivation groups, rates of smoking in
pregnancy remain polarised between very high rates in the more deprived parts of
Glasgow and much lower rates in the more affluent areas.
Deprivation has a strong association with low birthweight, with the most deprived 20%
of areas having double the low birthweight rate of the least deprived 20% of areas.
There have been modest rises in breastfeeding over the last few years and the
breastfeeding rate in Greater Glasgow is now at the level of the Scottish average.
However, there are large variations in breastfeeding rates at a small area level: within
the West of Scotland, the areas with the highest and the lowest levels breastfeeding are
both concentrated in Glasgow.
The lowest uptake of primary immunisation tends to be concentrated in Glasgow, and
lower uptake, with the exception of MMR, is associated with greater deprivation.
Strong associations between socioeconomic factors (such as lone parent households
and children in workless households) and maternity-related indicators emphasise the
importance of the interaction between social, cultural and economic factors and health
behaviours.
“Six out of the ten areas with the highest teenage pregnancy rates were in
Glasgow, all at least double the Scottish average.”
“There is a strong trend toward women having children at older ages.”
“Maternity related indicators emphasise the importance of the interaction
between social, cultural and economic factors and health behaviours.”
Chapter 8: Pregnancy and childbirth
Summary
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 8: Pregnancy, childbirth and early years
The period of pregnancy and the early years of life are recognised as extremely
important for child development. While immunisation has successfully reduced the
impact of many once common diseases (and is still vitally important), increasing
focus is now given to behavioural and socio-demographic factors that can affect the
health of both mothers and babies e.g. smoking, alcohol, drug abuse, age and
deprivation.
This chapter reports on a range of indicators relating to pregnancy and infant health.
The topics covered are: teenage pregnancy, teenage abortions, age of first time
mothers, smoking in pregnancy, low birthweight, breastfeeding and immunisation.
Infant deaths, which were reported on in two previous chapters (Chapter 2: A
historical perspective on Glasgow’s population, and Chapter 3: Population and life
expectancy) are also briefly summarised in terms of their relationship with
deprivation. A final section comments on the strong associations between many of
these indicators and their relationships with two socioeconomic factors: single
parenthood and living in a workless household.
As with previous chapters, many of the comparison graphs are drawn from two main
publications: NHS Health Scotland’s Community 1 and Constituency profiles 2 . The
data within these reports mainly relate to the period up to 2000-2002, but where
possible these data are supplemented with more recent data in order to show up to
date trends.
8.1 Teenage pregnancies and teenage abortions
Teenage pregnancy
The first two Figures in this section display teenage pregnancy rates by ‘community’ i
and by postcode sector. Across West of Scotland communities in 2000-2002 there
was a three-fold variation in the rate of teenage (age 13-19) pregnancies (Figure 8.1).
In Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie, the annual average rates ii were
1.5 and 1.7 per 100 females (13-19), respectively, while the rates in eight other
communities (from Motherwell to Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow) were at
least three times greater, ranging from 5.1 to 6.4 per 100. In comparison, the Scottish
average for this measure over the period was 4.3 per 100 females (13-19).
i
These are primary care-based localities (mainly the old Local Healthcare Cooperative (LHCC) areas
or, in some cases, the new Community Health (Care) Partnerships (CH(C)Ps)) with populations
ranging from 20,000-140,000 people. For further details see ‘Preface to Chapters 2-12’.
ii
Rates shown are annual averages rather than three year totals, as used in the NHSHS Community
Profiles.
217
Figure 8.1
Teenage pregancies (13 - 19 years): annual average rate per 100 females, 2000-2002,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
8
Rate per 100 females aged 13 - 19
e
7
6.4
6
5
4.3
4.2
2.8
3
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3.9
3.8
3.8
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4.2
4.6
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.9
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5.3
5.3
5.5
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At a postcode sector level the ten areas with highest rates all had rates at least double
the Scottish average (Figure 8.2) iii . Six out of ten of these areas were in Glasgow,
three were in Paisley and one was in East Ayrshire.
Figure 8.2
Teenage pregancies (13 - 19 years): annual average rate per 100 females, 2000-2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
Rate per 100 females aged 13 - 19
e
14
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12
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8.9
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iii
Note figures quoted as ‘<5’ relate to areas where there were less than five teenage pregnancies in the
period 2000-2002.
218
Trends in teenage pregnancy rates across a selection of West of Scotland council
areas between 1991-93 and 2001-03 (see Figure 8.3) show that, while the overall rate
of teenage pregnancies has reduced nationally, Glasgow has maintained a higher rate.
However, the rates for the two councils with the highest rates, Glasgow and East
Ayrshire, have reduced to levels closer to the national rate.
Figure 8.3
Teenage Pregnancies (13-19) expressed as a rate per 100 females, 1991/92 - 2002/03
for selected West of Scotland Councils
7
Source: ISD Scotland
6
Rate per 100 women aged 13-19
Glasgow City
5
East Ayrshire
Scotland
4
South Lanarkshire
3
East Dunbartonshire
2
East Renfrewshire
1
0
1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03
* 2002/03 data are provisional
Teenage pregnancy rates have a strong association with deprivation. The Scottish
Executive’s report on measuring inequalities 3 showed that, nationally, the ratio of the
rate of teenage pregnancies among 13-15 year olds between the most and least
deprived quintiles was three to one; that is, on average, a 13-15 year old girl living in
the 20% of most deprived areas would be three times more likely to have had a
teenage pregnancy than a girl of the same age living in one of the 20% of least
deprived areas.
Teenage abortions
In the period 2000-2002, the average annual rate of teenage (13-19 years) abortions in
Scotland was 1.3 per 100 females (13-19). Among Scottish Parliamentary
Constituencies within Greater Glasgow, this rate varied from 0.8 per 100 in
Dumbarton to 2.2 per 100 in Glasgow Shettleston, a rate which is 65% above the
Scottish average (Figure 8.4). Over the period 1993/95-2000/02 there was a slight
rise in the teenage abortion rate nationally (13.9%) and rises of varying amounts in
most of the constituencies within Greater Glasgow. The largest rise was in Eastwood
(+94%), although the actual rate remained below the Scottish average.
219
Figure 8.4
Average annual teenage (13-19) abortions expressed as a rate per 100 females,
2000-02, Scottish Parliamentary Constituencies within Greater Glasgow
Source: ISD Scotland
2.5
Rate per 100 females aged 13-19
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.3
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8.2 Age of first time mother
In the period 1999-2001, the average age of first time mothers varied between 24.6
years and 29.8 years across West of Scotland communities (Figure 8.5). The
youngest first time mothers lived in Clydebank & Drumchapel, Maryhill, Woodside
& North Glasgow, Bridgeton & Dennistoun and South West Glasgow, while the areas
with the oldest first time mothers were also in Greater Glasgow, within the generally
more affluent communities of Greater Shawlands, Strathkelvin, Glasgow West End,
Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie.
Figure 8.5
Average age of first-time mother; 1999-2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
32
29.7 29.8
30
28.6
28
26.5
Age
26
25.6
25.3 25.5 25.5 25.6
24.9 25.1 25.1
24.6 24.6 24.8
26.8
26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6
26.1 26.2 26.3
27.2
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24
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220
A similar pattern is observed at a postcode sector level, but with an eight to ten year
difference in the age of first time mothers observed between the areas with highest
and lowest average ages (Figure 8.6). In Drumchapel, Ferguslie Park, and parts of the
East of the city, the average age of first time mothers was between 21 and 22, while in
Bearsden, Milngavie, Cathcart, Hyndland and Kelvinside the average age of new
mothers was above 30.
Figure 8.6
Average age of first-time mother, 1999-2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
34
32.2
32
30.6
30.6
30.6
31.0
31.1
31.3
31.4
32.3
31.6
30
28
Age
26.5
26
24
22
21.0
21.2
21.4
21.4
21.5
21.6
22.0
22.3
22.5
22.6
20
N
its
hi
ll
-B
ar
lo
ch
Br
oo
m
Lu
hi
gt
ll
on
;D
un
lo
p
C
at
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hc
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ar
nf
t
oo
Ke
t;
lv
Al
in
l
o
da
w
ay
le
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el
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ns
id
e
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ar
G
sd
iff
en
no
ck
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ilm
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iln
y
a
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rd
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y
-K
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ey
ow
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on
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e;
ill
D
ou
ga
ls
to
n
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e
iln
ga
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D
ru
m
Sc
ot
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n
d
ch
ap
el
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ru
E
m
ch
ap
el
W
Br
id
ge
to
n
Fe
E
rg
us
lie
Pa
rk
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as
tle
m
ilk
E
R
uc
ha
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zi
e
st
er
ho
us
e
W
H
ig
h
Po
ss
il
Ba
rla
na
rk
18
Postcode sector
There is a strong trend toward women having children at older ages. At a national
level the percentage of births to women of 30 years or older has risen from 40% of all
births in 1996 to 49% in 2004. While every West of Scotland council has shown an
increase in the percentage of births to ‘older’ mothers iv , the actual proportions vary
considerably between councils (Figure 8.7). In East Renfrewshire and East
Dunbartonshire in 2004, two thirds of all births were to older mothers and, even in
North Ayrshire, the council with the lowest proportion, 41% of births were to older
mothers.
iv
Defined here as mothers of 30 years or older.
221
Figure 8.7
Births to mothers aged 30 or older as a percentage of all births, 1996 vs 2004
West of Scotland council areas
Source: ISD
80%
70%
1996
2004 p
58%
60%
% of all births
67%
66%
49%
49%
50%
45%
46%
44%
44%
44%
41%
40%
40%
37%
37%
36%
56%
53%
51%
43%
41%
39%
37%
34%
31%
30%
20%
10%
P
Figures for 2004 are provisional
re
re
ns
hi
rto
Ea
st
D
un
ba
fre
w
sh
i
ire
fre
st
R
en
Ea
R
en
rk
sh
i
w
sh
re
re
So
ut
h
La
ut
h
na
ks
hi
ar
th
So
La
n
st
A
N
or
Ea
Ay
rs
hi
re
re
yr
sh
i
de
cl
y
In
ve
r
to
n
sh
i
re
ire
ba
r
Ay
rs
h
W
es
tD
un
N
or
G
la
th
sg
ow
Sc
ot
la
nd
C
ity
0%
Council
At the other end of the maternal age spectrum, the percentage of births to mothers
under 20 years has remained stable at 8%, nationally, over the same period. However,
while in East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire only 3% and 5% of births
respectively are to mothers under 20, in West Dunbartonshire and Inverclyde the
proportions are much higher, at 11% and 12% respectively.
Nationally, there is strong association between deprivation and the age of mother at
the birth of her first child (see Figure 8.8). The distribution of maternal age at birth of
first child shows a difference of approximately 12 years between the most deprived
quintile and the least deprived. It is likely that Glasgow will have a similar pattern.
Figure 8.8
First Birth1 by Age of Mother and Deprivation Quintile, Year ending 31 March 2004 p
Scotland
Source: ISD Scotland
600
1 - Least Deprived
2
3
500
4
5 - Most Deprived
Number
400
300
200
100
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 48 49 50
1 - Excludes home births and births at non-NHS hospitals.
p - Provisional.
Age
222
8.3 Smoking in pregnancy
Across the West of Scotland in the period 2000-2002, figures for maternal smoking
(recorded at first hospital booking) ranged from 9% in Eastwood to 43% in
Clydebank & Drumchapel (Figure 8.9). Four Greater Glasgow communities
(Eastwood, Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie, Greater Shawlands and Strathkelvin)
had the lowest maternal smoking rates in the West of Scotland, while four other
Glasgow communities (South West Glasgow, Bridgeton & Dennistoun, Maryhill,
Woodside & North Glasgow and Clydebank & Drumchapel) had the highest rates in
the West of Scotland.
Figure 8.9
% Maternal smoking at hospital booking, 2000-02
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
50
43
45
38
40
35
%
30
27
25
19
20
21
21
23
25
25
25
27
27
28
29
29
29
30
30
31
32
32
33
34
39
36
16
15
9
10
5
An
n
ie
sl
an
d/
Be
a
rs
d
Sc
ot
l
Ea and
st
w
en
G
/M ood
re
at
i
er lng
Sh avi
e
a
R
w
en
S t lan
fre
ds
r
a
w
th
&
k
W Eas elv
es
t K in
tR
ilb
en
r
fre ide
w
C
u m sh
be ire
rn
au
Lo ld
m
on
C
ly
d
So de
s
ut
da
h
A y le
rs
G
h
C
a m las I n v i r e
bu go erc
w
l
sl
an
W yde
es
g
&
tE
R
n
ut
he d
So
rg
le
ut
n
H
h
Ea am
ilt
st
G on
Ea las
st go w
Ay
rs
A
hi
M
Pa ird
re
o
r
is
i
l e e & th e
r
y
an Co we
ll
a
d
Le tbr
ve idg
e
rn
N
or Va
l
Ea th A ley
yr
st
er
sh
n
G ire
la
So
sg
ut
ow
M
ar Brid h W W
i
yh
sh
e
ill/ geto st
aw
G
W
la
oo n &
sg
d
D
ow
C
si
e
ly
d
de e & nnis
ba
to
N
nk
G un
la
&
s
D
ru gow
m
ch
ap
el
0
Community
At a postcode sector level (see Figure 8.10), the differences in maternal smoking are
considerable, with less than 10% of mothers smoking in the lowest maternal smoking
areas to over 50% in the highest smoking areas – which are all characterised by
deprivation, and multiple health and social problems.
223
Figure 8.10
% Maternal smoking at hospital booking, 2000-2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
70
62
60
55
54
50
50
51
51
51
50
50
50
%
40
27
30
20
10
4
4
5
4
5
5
7
7
7
7
ey
Pa
rk
he
a
ru
d
m
N
ch
ap
el
N
E
e
ile
Fa
ifl
W
el
ch
ap
D
D
ru
m
Pe
n
W
W
ilk
e
m
us
tle
as
C
Ea
st
er
ho
ll
Ib
ro
x
N
its
hi
Be
ar
sd
e
Sc
ot
la
nd
C
la
rk
st
n
on
-K
es
si
ng
to
n
G
iff
no
M
C
ck
ar
iln
m
ga
un
vi
no
e
-K
ck
Ki
ey
lm
st
ac
on
ol
e;
m
D
ou
D
g
oo
al
s
nf
to
oo
n
t;
Al
lo
w
ay
M
H
iln
ou
ga
st
Br
on
vi
e
oo
-B
m
;K
ar
lo
irk
ch
hi
ll;
M
e
Kn
ar
ns
ig
ht
sw
oo
d
S
0
Postcode sector
Trends in smoking in pregnancy over an eight-year period (1994-96 to 2000-02) show
a modest reduction in maternal smoking at a national level, but reductions of at least
10% in nine West of Scotland communities (Figure 8.11).
Figure 8.11
% Maternal smoking at booking (totalled over 3 years), 1994-96 vs 2000-02
selected West of Scotland communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
50.0
47.2
47.1
45.0
1994 - 1996
42.1
38.4
40.0
36.9
33.2
35.0
32.2
% Smoking
30.9
30.0
2000-2002
39.5
29.8
28.9
28.5
27.4
27.1
25.4
24.9
23.2
25.0
19.5
20.0
15.0
11.0
8.7
10.0
5.0
0.0
Scotland
Eastwood
Eastern
Glasgow
Bridgeton and
Maryhill,
Dennistoun Woodside and
North Glasgow
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Greater
Shawlands
Inverclyde
Lomond
Cumbernauld
Community
At a sector level a number of areas have shown a large percentage drop over the
period (Figure 8.12).
224
Figure 8.12
% Maternal smoking at booking (totalled over 3 years), 1994-96 vs 2000-02
10 postcode sectors showing greatest reductions, West of Scotland
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
50.0
1994 - 1996
2000 - 2002
45.1
45.0
39.1
40.0
% Smoking
35.0
30.0
32.7
29.5
28.9
27.1
27.8
25.0
22.0
21.9
20.5
19.4
20.0
16.9
15.7
15.0
15.6
15.0
12.6
9.9
9.3
10.0
4.8
5.0
7.9
5.1
3.6
0.0
Scotland
Carmunnock
Clarkston
Kilmacolm
Howwood
Ayr Kilmarnock
Harbour & W
Town Centre
Postcode sector
Irvine;
Dreghorn
Blackhill
Chryston
Southcraigs;
Fenwick
Trends from 1995-2004 show that the rate of smoking in pregnancy has reduced by
nearly a quarter in Greater Glasgow to 25%, a figure that is only just above the
Scottish average. Over this period there have been reductions in all deprivation
quintiles (see Figure 8.13). However, despite these reductions, the ratio of the rate of
smoking in pregnancy between most deprived and least deprived areas has remained
unchanged: mothers in the most deprived quintile are four times as likely to smoke as
in the most affluent quintile.
Figure 8.13
% Maternal smoking at booking by deprivation, 1995-2004*
NHS Greater Glasgow
Source: ISD Scotland
50
45
40
5 (most deprived)
35
30
%
4
25
3
20
15
2
10
1 (least deprived)
5
0
1995
2003
2004
* 2004 data are provisional
225
However, it should be noted that recent research suggests that at least part of the
reduction in smoking in pregnancy may be an artefact of changes in recording4 .
8.4 Low birthweight babies
Across Scotland, 5.8% of babies were of low birthweight (<2500g) in the period
2000-2002 v . Across West of Scotland communities, the percentage of low birthweight
babies ranged from 3.6% in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie to 9.2% in Bridgeton
& Dennistoun (Figure 8.14).
Figure 8.14
Low birthweight (<2500g) live births as a percentage of all singleton births, 2000-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
10
8.8
7.7
8
5.3
%
6
5.8
5.8
4.3
4
3.6
4.3
4.6
5.4
5.8
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.7
7.0
7.7
9.2
8.0
7.0
5.4
4.9
3.8
2
An
n
ie
sl
an
d/
Be
ar
Sc
sd
ot
la
en
nd
/M
iln
ga
vi
e
Ea
st
w
oo
C
d
ly
de
Ea sda
le
st
Ki
lb
C
rid
um
e
be
rn
au
St
ld
ra
th
So
ke
R
lv
ut
en
in
h
fre
Ay
w
rs
&
hi
re
W
H
es
t R am
ilt
en
on
fre
w
sh
Ea
ire
st
G
re
Ay
at
r
er
sh
ire
Sh
aw
la
nd
M
s
C
ot
am
he
rw
bu
el
sl
In
l
an
ve
g
rc
&
ly
Ai
de
R
rd
ut
rie
he
rg
&
le
C
G
n
oa
la
sg
tb
rid
ow
ge
W
es
tE
nd
Lo
N
m
or
on
So
th
d
ut
Ay
h
rs
h
So Eas
t G ire
ut
h
la
W
sg
es
t G ow
Pa
la
is
s
le
go
y
w
an
C
W
d
ly
is
Le
de
ha
ve
ba
w
rn
nk
Va
M
&
ar
D
l
l
e
yh
r
y
ill/
Ea um
ch
W
ap
oo ster
n
el
ds
G
id
la
Br
e
sg
&
id
ow
ge
N
G
to
la
n
s
&
go
D
w
en
ni
st
ou
n
0
Community
At a sector level, in four areas there were no low birthweight babies born between
2000 and 2002 and in other areas the numbers involved were less than five babies. In
the ten areas with the highest rates, the percentage of low birthweight babies ranged
from 12-16% of all live births (Figure 8.15).
v
Note the definition used for this measure excludes twins and babies that are stillborn.
226
Figure 8.15
Low birthweight (<2500g) live births as a percentage of all singleton births, 2000-2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
18
16.2
16
14
12.0
12.7
12.3
13.0
12.9
13.8
13.9
16.5
14.4
12
%
10
8
5.8
6
4
2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
<5
<5
<5
<5
<5
<5
Pa
rk
G
ov
an
C
am
la
ch
ie
W
oo
ds
Ea
id
e
st
er
ho
us
e
W
Br
id
ge
to
n
W
R
uc
ha
zi
Fe
e
rg
us
lie
Pa
rk
Br
id
ge
to
n
E
C
Ba
irc
Tr
lm
us
ad
or
;W
es
e
to
oo
n;
dl
G
an
or
ds
ba
;C
ls
ow
ca
dd
en
s
s
to
n
St
ew
ar
To
rra
nc
e;
St
ep
p
un
lo
p
M
Pe
illp
rc
or
et
t
on
;S
Sk
ou
el
r
lie
m
or
..
lie
;M
ei
gl
e.
.
Sp
rin
gs
id
e
;D
Lu
gt
on
ck
Ke
lb
ur
n
un
no
ai
rli
e;
G
le
ns
id
e;
F
C
ar
m
Sc
ot
la
n
d
0
Postcode sector
At a national level there has been little change in the rate of low birthweight babies
born over the last 30 years. At a community level there have been varying trends
across the West of Scotland in the last ten years (see Figure 8.16). While the
percentage of low birthweight babies dropped in Clydesdale (by 23.1%) and
Motherwell (by 11.7%), the percentage of low birthweight babies rose by 20% or
more in Eastern Glasgow, Inverclyde, Wishaw, Bridgeton & Dennistoun and
Lomond.
Figure 8.16
Low birthweight (<2500g) live births as a percentage of all singleton births, 1990/92 2000/02, selected West of Scotland communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
10
9.2
9
1990-92
2000-02
8.0
8
6.6
7
%
6
5.5
5.8
6.5
7.0
6.7
6.6
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.7
5.0
4.9
5
7.1
5.0
4.6
4.3
3.8 3.6
4
3
2
1
0
Scotland
Clydesdale
Motherwell
Cumbernauld Anniesland,
Bearsden
and
Milngavie
Cambuslang
and
Rutherglen
Eastern
Glasgow
Inverclyde
Wishaw
Bridgeton
and
Dennistoun
Lomond
Community
227
More recent data for 2004 show that West Dunbartonshire had the highest rate of low
birthweight babies among West of Scotland councils, while South Ayrshire had the
lowest rate (Figure 8.17).
Figure 8.17
Low birthweight (<2500g) live births as a percentage of all singleton live births, 2004
West of Scotland council areas
Source: ISD Scotland
9
8.2
7.8
8
7.3
7.1
7
6.1
6.0
5.8
6
5.1
5.0
6.0
5.4
5.3
%
5
4
3
2
1
ire
sh
to
n
ar
In
un
b
R
en
f re
ks
na
r
La
ve
rc
ly
de
W
es
tD
w
sh
ire
hi
re
ire
sh
N
or
th
rs
Ay
or
th
N
Ea
st
Ay
r
hi
re
ire
sh
re
w
en
f
Ea
st
R
un
D
Ea
st
La
ut
h
So
ba
r
na
r
to
ns
ks
hi
hi
re
re
re
Ay
rs
hi
h
So
ut
C
ity
of
G
la
sg
o
Sc
ot
la
nd
w
0
Council
In terms of deprivation, nationally, the percentage of low birthweight babies born in
the 20% least affluent areas was consistently twice that in the 20% most affluent areas
over the period 1991-93 to 2000-02. Data for Greater Glasgow have a similar ratio.
8.5 Infant death
Trends in infant deaths and comparisons of infant death rates across the West of
Scotland have been included in previous chapters (Chapters 2 and 3 respectively). In
this brief section a short commentary on the relationship between infant deaths and
deprivation is provided.
Nationally, there was a reasonably consistent pattern in the relationship between
infant deaths and deprivation from 1991-93 to 1999-01. The rate of infant deaths for
female infants in the most deprived 20% of areas was one and a half times the rate in
the least deprived 20%. The inequality ratio for male infants was more variable but
generally greater, varying from 1.6 to 2.1.
228
8.6 Breastfeeding
The highest breastfeeding rates in the West of Scotland (2000-02) were in
Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie (57% of babies being breast fed at 6-8 weeks) and
in six Greater Glasgow communities the rates were above the Scottish average of 34%
(Figure 8.18). The lowest breastfeeding rates within a community were for Airdrie &
Coatbridge (18%).
Figure 8.18
% breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, 2000-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
60
57
50
46
40
36
%
34
30
18
20
19
21
20
21
22
23
23
24
25
26
26
26
28
29
31
31
32
33
48
50
38
33
10
Ai
rd
rie
Sc
ot
&
la
Ea Coa nd
t
st
er brid
n
M
G ge
ar
la
sg
yh
M
ow
ill/
o
W
t
h
oo
er
w
C dsi d
el
ly
l
W
e
de
ba & N isha
w
G
Br nk
la
&
id
s
D
ge
ru gow
to
m
n
ch
&
a
D
e n pe
l
ni
So
st
ou
ut
H
n
h
a
W
es mi l t
t G on
la
s
I n gow
ve
N
or rcly
th
d
Ay e
C
um rsh
C
i
am
be re
rn
bu
E
Pa sla ast auld
ng
Ay
is
le
rs
&
y
an Ru hire
th
d
er
Le
ve g l e
n
rn
Va
C
ly lley
de
R
en
sd
a
fre
Lo le
w
&
m
on
W Eas
es
d
t
t R Kil
en brid
fre
e
S
So ou wsh
th
i
ut
Ay re
h
Ea
r
st shir
e
G
la
St sgo
G
re
r
at ath w
er
k
Sh e l v i
An
aw n
ni
la
es
G
Ea n d s
la
la
nd sg
o w stw
/B
oo
ea
W
d
rs
de est
En
n/
M
d
iln
ga
vi
e
0
Community
At a postcode sector level large differences in breastfeeding rates become apparent
(see Figure 8.19). Breastfeeding rates range from less than 10% in the ten lowest rate
areas, eight out of ten of which are in Glasgow, to above 65% in the areas with the
highest rates, nine out of ten of which are in Greater Glasgow.
Figure 8.19
% breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, 2000-2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
90
78
80
70
65
65
66
66
66
66
68
68
70
60
%
50
40
34
30
20
10
6
6
6
8
8
9
9
9
9
10
Pa
Sc
ot
la
nd
rk
he
ad
Ea
N
st
er
ho
us
e
E
Br
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ll
0
Postcode sector
229
More recent data based on children born in 2004 show breastfeeding rates measured
against the national target of 50% of mothers breastfeeding at six weeks (Figure 8.20).
While East Renfrewshire (47.6%) and East Dunbartonshire (44.9%) are close to the
target, North Lanarkshire is furthest away with only 23.2% of mothers breastfeeding
at 6-8 weeks.
Figure 8.20
Breastfeeding rates recorded at the 6-8 week review: children born in 2004
West of Scotland council areas
p
Source: ISD Scotland
60
National Target (50% at 6 weeks)
50
47.6
44.9
40
34.9
Percentage
34.1
32.5
30.3
29.6
30
25.1
23.2
27.2
27.2
20
10
p
Data for 2004 are provisional
ns
ba
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ity
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ire
of
0
Council Area
There has been a gradual rise in breastfeeding rates both nationally and in Greater
Glasgow (see Figure 8.21), where rates have caught up with the Scottish average.
Figure 8.21
Breastfeeding rates recorded at the 6-8 week review, 1998-2004
NHS Greater Glasgow
Source: ISD Scotland
50
% babies breastfed at 6-8 weeks
45
40
35
30
25
20
Greater Glasgow
Scotland
15
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Note: 2004 figures are provisional
230
Deprivation has an important association with the levels of breastfeeding. In 2002 a
national comparison showed that the percentage of mothers from the 20% most
deprived areas not breastfeeding was 1.7 times higher than in the 20% most affluent
areas.
8.7 Immunisation
In this section we report separately on patterns and trends in childhood immunisation
(excluding MMR) and MMR immunisation.
Childhood immunisation (excluding MMR)
Immunisation uptake for antigens other than MMR vi varied widely across West of
Scotland communities in 2000-02 with the lowest uptake concentrated in Greater
Glasgow (Figure 8.22). The lowest rates of uptake were in Greater Shawlands and
Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow (both below 90%), while the highest uptake
rates across the West of Scotland were in East Kilbride and Clydesdale.
Figure 8.22
Immunisation Uptake (excluding MMR) Rates at 24 Months, 2000-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
100
98
96.4
96.0 96.1
98.0 98.0
97.7 97.8 97.9 97.9
97.3 97.3 97.3 97.4 97.4 97.6
96.9 96.9 97.0 97.1
96.5 96.8
96
93.8
94
93.0
%
92.0
92
90
91.0
89.4
89.9
88
86
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t R am
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rid
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e
ly
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sd
al
e
84
Community
At a postcode sector level (see Figure 8.23), there were uptake rates of below 70% in
two areas, Cowlairs and Pollokshaws and nine out of the ten lowest uptake areas were
in Glasgow. At the other end of the spectrum, six sectors had 100% uptake.
vi
Diphtheria, Pertussis, Tetanus, Polio and Hib (abbreviation of Haemophilus influenzae type b).
231
Figure 8.23
Immunisation Uptake (excluding MMR) Rates at 24 Months, 2000-2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
100
99.4
96.4
81.3
80
64.7
68.6
81.9
83.4
85.5
84.2
86.2
99.7
99.5
99.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
86.6
72.0
%
60
40
20
ei
gl
e;
k
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ot
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nd
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Postcode sector
At a national level, the level of immunisation uptake (excluding MMR) has stood
above 96% for the last five years with only minor fluctuations over the period. The
trends in immunisation levels for Diphtheria, Pertussis, Tetanus, Polio and Hib have
been similarly relatively stable for Greater Glasgow over the same period. For the
main primary immunisations with the exception of MMR, immunisation rates tend to
be lower in the most deprived areas (Figure 8.24).
Figure 8.24
Primary Immunisation Uptake rates at 12 months by deprivation category for Glasgow NHS
Board, as at November 2003
Source: ISD
102
Dip
Tet
Pert
Pol
Hib
MenC
100
98
%
96
94
92
90
88
86
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Deprivation (1 least deprived - 7 most deprived)
232
MMR immunisation
MMR immunisation uptake rates at 24 months varied between 82.6% and 93.3% in
2000-02 across West of Scotland communities with the six communities with the
lowest immunisation uptake all being in Glasgow (Figure 8.25).
Figure 8.25
MMR Immunisation Uptake Rates at 24 Months, 2000-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
96
93.3
94
92
90.4 90.4 90.5
89.8 90.1
90.0
90
87.6
88
91.4 91.4 91.6
90.9 91.2 91.2 91.3
92.1
88.8 88.8 88.9
88.2 88.5 88.6
%
85.9
86
83.9 84.2
84
84.8
82.6
82
80
78
M
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76
Community
At a postcode sector level (Figure 8.26), the uptake rates in some areas drop below
80% and in two areas, the City Centre and Cowlairs, the rates were below 70%
(although in the former the actual numbers of children living in this area in the period
was very small).
Figure 8.26
MMR Immunisation Uptake Rates at 24 Months; 2000-2002;
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
100
94.8
94.8
94.9
94.9
95.7
95.2
95.0
95.7
95.9
96.0
90.0
80
65.6
66.9
70.6
70.7
74.6
76.4
76.4
77.8
78.0
78.9
%
60
40
20
H
ol
m
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on
;
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ns
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Postcode sector
233
Recent national trends indicate that MMR immunisation uptake rates at 24 months
(which dropped between 2000 and 2001 from 93.2% to 88.5% and dropped further to
86.8% in 2003) are starting to rise again – up to 88.3% in 2004. The same pattern is
apparent in Greater Glasgow, which, while having a lower uptake rate than the
national average, has shown an increase in the most recent year of published figures
(87.1% uptake in 2004, a rise of 1.1% on the previous year). Lanarkshire, Ayrshire &
Arran and Argyll & Clyde NHS Board areas all show similar increases in uptake in
2004.
There is no clear pattern of uptake of MMR by deprivation.
8.8 Associations between maternal and early years indicators and related socioeconomic factors
An analysis of the associations between a range of maternity/child related indicators vii
from NHS Health Scotland’s Community Profiles produced some notable, if
unsurprising, results. The following is a summary of the main results, which are
based on a set of postcode sector level correlation analyses of the aforementioned
indicators:
x
There is a strong correlation between the average age of first time mothers and
breastfeeding rates at 6-8 weeks. As average maternal age increases the
percentage of mothers’ breastfeeding increases.
x
There is a highly significant negative correlation between age of first time
mothers and smoking during pregnancy: the lower the average age of a first
time mother, the higher the probability of smoking during pregnancy.
x
Lone parent households are correlated with age of first time mothers: as the
average age of a first time mother increases the percentage of lone parent
households decreases.
x
There is a high correlation between teenage pregnancy rates and smoking
during pregnancy: the higher the rate of teenage pregnancy, the higher the
proportion of mothers smoking during pregnancy.
x
A positive correlation is shown between lone parent households and smoking
during pregnancy: as the percentage of mothers smoking at hospital booking
increases, so too does the percentage of lone parent households in that sector.
x
There is also a negative correlation between smoking during pregnancy and
breastfeeding: the higher the breastfeeding rates, the lower the percentage of
mothers who smoke during pregnancy.
vii
Annual birth rate, average age of first time mothers, teenage pregnancy rate, low birthweight babies,
smoking during pregnancy, breastfeeding, lone parent households and children in workless households.
234
x
There is a strong positive correlation between teenage pregnancy rates and lone
parent households.
x
There is, perhaps not surprisingly, an extremely high, significant positive
correlation between lone parent households and children in workless
households. Given this correlation, it is predictable that children in workless
households display the same set of associations as lone parent households with
other maternal and early years indicators.
x
For example, children in workless households (and lone parent households)
display a strong negative correlation with breastfeeding rates. As the percentage
of children in workless households increases, the percentage of mothers who are
breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks decreases.
The analysis described was carried out for postcode sectors across Scotland, but there
is no reason to believe that the associations described are not valid for the Glasgow
area. The strong associations between lone parent households and children in
workless households and maternity related indicators emphasise the importance of the
interaction between social, cultural and economic factors and health behaviours.
235
Summary
x
Teenage pregnancies for 13-19 year olds have reduced nationally and, although
the gap (compared to Scotland) has narrowed, Glasgow still has a higher than
average teenage pregnancy rate. Much higher teenage pregnancies rates tend to
occur in more deprived areas.
x
There is a gap of ten years in the age of first time mothers across West of Scotland
communities. Trends indicate that proportionately more and more babies are
being born to older mothers – in 2004 almost 50% of births were to mothers of 30
years of age or older. Conversely, however, there has been no reduction in the
percentage of births to mothers under 20 years of age, which is 8% nationally, but
varies widely across the West of Scotland. Deprivation and age of mother at first
birth have a strong association, with a difference of approximately 12 years in the
age for starting a family between the most and least deprived quintile.
x
Despite reductions nationally and across deprivation groups, rates of smoking in
pregnancy remain polarised between very high rates in the more deprived parts of
Glasgow and much lower rates in the more affluent areas.
x
Over a 30-year period there has been little change in the rate of low birthweight
babies born nationally. Deprivation has a strong association with low birthweight,
with the most deprived 20% of areas having double the low birthweight rate of the
least deprived 20% of areas.
x
There are large variations in breastfeeding rates especially at a small area level,
with the areas with the highest and the lowest levels breastfeeding both
concentrated in Glasgow. There have been modest rises in breastfeeding over the
last few years and the breastfeeding rate in Greater Glasgow is now at the level of
the Scottish average.
x
The lowest uptake of primary immunisation tends to be concentrated in Glasgow,
and lower uptake, with the exception of MMR, is associated with greater
deprivation. With the exception of MMR, primary immunisation uptake has
remained relatively stable for the last five years. The MMR uptake rate, which
was affected by the controversy over the safety of this form of immunisation,
dropped between 2000 and 2001, but has shown recent signs of recovery.
x
The strong associations between socio-economic factors (such as lone parent
households and children in workless households) and maternity-related indicators
emphasise the importance of the interaction between social, cultural and economic
factors and health behaviours.
236
References
1
NHS Health Scotland. Community Health and Well-being Profiles. 2004
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/communityprofiles
2
NHS Health Scotland. Constituency Health and Well-being Profiles. 2004
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/constituencyprofiles
3
Scottish Executive. Inequalities in Health – Report of the Measuring Inequalities in
Health Working Group. 2003
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/03/19045/34233
4
Judge K, Bauld L. Health inequality targets in Scotland: Smoking during pregnancy
(internal report). Glasgow: University of Glasgow, 2006
237
It is estimated that there were more than 6,000 children in Glasgow living with a parent
with a substance misuse problem in 2003.
In Glasgow, 2,500 children are currently looked after by the local authority – and
more than double that are looked after by all the West of Scotland councils. Rates are
rising.
Almost 1,000 children in the West of Scotland are on a child protection register.
In 2001, more than 100,000 children in the West of Scotland were living in households
where neither parent was in employment.
Significant proportions of adolescents across the West of Scotland smoke, drink and
take drugs. Although trends suggest smoking levels are decreasing, the opposite is true
of alcohol.
One fifth of pre-school children are either overweight or obese.
The dental health of children is slowly improving. However, throughout Greater
Glasgow between 40% and 70% of children aged five have decayed teeth.
Rates of road traffic casualties among children fell significantly in Glasgow and the
West of Scotland between 1999 and 2003.
“Just over one in twenty children in Glasgow are estimated to be living
with at least one parent who has a substance misuse problem.”
“In the ten areas with the lowest rates, the percentage of children in workless households ranges from 2% to 4%, while in the ten areas with the
highest rates, all of which are in Glasgow, the percentages of children in
workless households vary from 58% to 64%.”
“In the most recent year for which data have been published – 2003/04 –
the percentage of five year-olds without dental decay rose to 51% nationally, and to 42% in Greater Glasgow.”
“There has been a marked increase in teenage alcohol
related/attributable hospitalisations over a ten year period between
1989/91 and 1999/2001.”
Chapter 9: Children and adolescents
Summary
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 9: Children and adolescents
This chapter considers a number of indicators relevant to the health of children and
adolescents in Glasgow and the West of Scotland. Some of the data presented in the
previous chapter (Chapter 8: Pregnancy, childbirth and early years) is also clearly
relevant to this topic (e.g. teenage pregnancies, teenage abortions).
The chapter is divided into two sections. First, we consider information relating to the
circumstances in which children in Glasgow and the West of Scotland live and are
brought up (their ‘social environment’: this includes children of substance misusers,
children looked after by a local authority, child protection register data and children in
workless households). Second, we examine a number of indicators which could be
classified as ‘behavioural’ in nature. These include obesity, alcohol, smoking and
drug-taking, and dental health. Clearly, however, this division is artificial, as many of
these behavioural factors are obviously influenced by the environment in which
children are raised and some will relate to the behavioural influences of the parents
rather than the children. The distinction is employed merely to enable better
structuring of the chapter.
9.1 Children’s social environment
Children affected by parental substance misuse
The figures presented here are estimates derived by the University of Glasgow Centre
for Drugs Misuse Research in a report commissioned by Glasgow City Council
Addictions Team 1 . They are reproduced here with the kind permission of the Centre
and the City Council. However, it should be emphasised that the figures are
statistically modelled estimates derived from a number of different data sources. It is
extremely difficult to gauge the accuracy of the findings and, as with any modelled
estimates, the information should be interpreted with caution. i
The report by the Centre for Drugs Misuse Research calculated, for Glasgow in 2003,
estimates of the total numbers and proportions of children with parents with ‘problem
drug’ or ‘problem alcohol’ use, including estimates of children living with parents
with substance misuse problems. A summary of the work shows that:
i
Drugs misuse figures were calculated through combining data from a national drugs misuse
prevalence report (published in 2005 and referenced within Chapter 7: Behaviour), and the Drug
Outcomes Research in Scotland (DORIS) study (see www.gla.ac.uk/centres/drugmisuse/DORIS.html).
The sample size for Glasgow in the latter study was only 240. Alcohol figures were derived from
Glasgow City Council social enquiry reports and the same national drugs misuse report: the former
allowed calculation of the ratio of problem drug users to problem alcohol users, which was then applied
to the latter. Information on the numbers of children was again derived from the fairly small DORIS
cohort.
241
x
An estimated 9,940 children in Glasgow have a ‘problem alcohol use father’;
7,600 have a ‘problem drug use father’; 3,360 have a mother with drugs misuse
problems; 3,640 have a mother with alcohol misuse problems. These categories,
illustrated in Figure 9.1, are not mutually exclusive. However, the majority of
children do not live with these parents.
Figure 9.1
Estimated numbers of children with problem drug
and problem alcohol use mother or father, Glasgow City, 2003
Source: University of Glasgow Centre for Drugs Misuse Research
12000
9,937
10000
Number of children
8000
7,602
6000
4000
3,358
3,639
2000
0
problem drug user mother
x
problem alcohol user mother
problem drug user father
problem alcohol user father
The total, estimated, number of children living with a ‘problem drug use’ parent in
Glasgow is almost 3,500 (3.1% of all children aged 0-15). The breakdown (shown
as percentages of all children) by each council social work action team area is
presented in Figure 9.2. The equivalent figures for children with a ‘problem
alcohol use’ parent are shown in Figure 9.3. The total figure in this category is just
under 3,800 (3.4% of children in Glasgow).
242
Figure 9.2
Children living with a 'problem drug use' parent
Percentage of all children aged 0-15, Glasgow City, 2003
Source: University of Glasgow Centre for Drugs Misuse Research
6
% of all children (0-15)
5.3
Glasgow City: 3.1%
(3,492 children)
5
4
3.5
3.1
3.1
3
2.6
2.6
South East
North East
2.7
2.7
2.8
West
North West
Greater Pollok
2.9
2
1
0
Glasgow City
North
South
South West
East
Glasgow City Council Social Work Area Action Team
Figure 9.3
Children living with a 'problem alcohol use parent'
Percentage of all children aged 0-15, Glasgow City, 2003
Source: University of Glasgow Centre for Drugs Misuse Research
6
5.7
Glasgow City: 3.4%
(3,781 children )
% of all children (0-15)
5
3.8
4
3.4
3.4
3
2.8
2.8
South East
North East
2.9
2.9
3.0
West
North West
Greater Pollok
3.1
2
1
0
Glasgow City
North
South
South West
East
Glasgow City Council Social Work Area Action Team
In all, more than 6,000 children in Glasgow are estimated to be living with at least one
parent who has a substance misuse problem (Figure 9.4). This equates to just over one
in twenty children in Glasgow (5.5%).
243
Figure 9.4
Estimated numbers of children living with a parent with
substance misuse problem, Glasgow City, 2003
Source: University of Glasgow Centre for Drugs Misuse Research
7,000
6,142
6,000
Number of children
5,000
3,781
4,000
3,492
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
living with either parent who is a problem drug user
living with either parent who is a problem alcohol
user
living with either parent with a substance misuse
problem
These figures are considered further at the end of the chapter.
Looked after children
In 2004, more than 11,500 children in Scotland were being looked after by a local
authority ii . Just under half of these children were being looked after within a West of
Scotland council area, with the figure for Glasgow at just under 2,500 (Figure 9.5).
ii
Note that, as with the other indicators presented in this report, a full definition of looked after children
is included in Appendix 1.
244
Figure 9.5
Numbers of looked after children, West of Scotland council areas 2004
Source: Care Scotland
3000
Scotland: 11,675 children
West of Scotland: 5,590 children
Number of children
2500
2,420
2000
1500
1000
595
500
300
225
215
465
430
425
330
95
90
ity
C
go
w
la
s
G
N
or
th
La
n
ar
ks
hi
re
w
sh
ire
R
en
fre
rk
sh
ire
La
na
h
So
ut
N
or
th
W
Ea
st
Ay
Ay
rs
hi
re
rs
hi
re
hi
re
rto
ns
rs
hi
re
es
tD
un
ba
So
ut
h
Ay
ve
rc
ly
de
In
fre
w
Ea
st
R
en
Ea
st
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
sh
ire
0
Council
ng the highest rates not only within the West of Scotland
Glasgow stands out as having
but across the whole country. The rate of 20.8 per 1,000 children is almost twice the
national figure of 10.9 per 1,000 and is well in excess of the overall figure for the
West of Scotland (12.3). The lowest and highest rates among the other West of
Scotland councils in 2004 were 3.7 per 1,000 in East Dunbartonshire and 14.8 per
1,000 in West Dunbartonshire. This is illustrated in Figure 9.6.
Figure 9.6
Looked after children - rate per 1,000 0-17 year-olds, 2004
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Care Scotland
25.0
14.0
15.0
12.3
12.5
12.0
10.9
14.8
12.7
10.0
10.0
8.1
6.5
5.0
3.7
4.5
yr
sh
ire
R
en
fre
w
sh
ire
N
or
th
Ay
W
rs
es
hi
tD
re
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
st
A
Ea
In
ve
rc
ly
de
C
ity
la
sg
ow
G
st
D
un
ba
rto
ns
Ea
hi
re
st
R
en
fre
w
sh
So
ire
ut
h
La
na
rk
sh
N
ire
or
th
La
na
rk
sh
ire
So
ut
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
Ea
W
es
t
of
Sc
ot
la
nd
ot
la
nd
0.0
Sc
Rate per 1,000 0-17 year-olds
20.8
20.0
Council
245
Rates have increased slowly but consistently over the past few years. Across the
whole country, rates rose from 9.5 in 1998 to 10.9 in 2004, and in Glasgow the rate
increased from 18.2 to 20.0. This is an increase of about 14% which is similar to the
national figure. These trends are illustrated in Figure 9.7 but note that these are
expressed as three year rolling averages (so differ slightly from the annual data
presented above).
Recording discrepancies make it difficult to obtain an accurate breakdown of the most
common reasons for children being looked after. An analysis of Glasgow City
Council Social Work Department’s ‘CareFirst’ system in April 2005 showed that of
the 2,500 children in care, around 13% were recorded as being in care as a result of
‘child protection orders’. These may have been issued for a variety of different
reasons. Despite this caveat, we can estimate that at least 30% of children are looked
after because of lack of parental care/desertion/abandonment, and at least 20% as a
result of drug and/or alcohol abuse by the carer. Other reasons are listed in Figure 9.8
but, once again, these figures should be interpreted, and reported, with caution.
Figure 9.7
Looked after children - rate per 1000, three year rolling average, 1998 - 2004
Glasgow and West of Scotland council areas
Source: Care Scotland
25.0
Rate per 1000 children aged 0-17
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1998 - 2000
1999 - 2001
2000 - 2002
Scotland
West of Scotland
2001 - 2003
2002 - 2004
Glasgow City
246
Figure 9.8
Looked after children, Glasgow City Council, April 2005: reason for being looked after
Source: Glasgow City Council CareFirst
Lack of parental
care/desertion/abandonment
31.4
20.8
Drug/alcohol misuse by carer
12.8
Child Protection
8.4
School non-attendance/exclusion
6.0
Deteriorating relationship with carer/s
5.7
Outwith parental control
4.7
Other miscellaneous reasons
4.3
Mental health problems of carer/s
Domestic Violence
3.1
Offending behaviour
2.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
% of looked after children
Child protection register
The total number of children placed on the child protection register in Scotland in
2004 was 2,440. Of these, 925 were resident in the West of Scotland, with 420
resident within Glasgow City Council boundaries. Figure 9.9 presents these numbers
as a rate comparable across the different parts of the West of Scotland and, as can be
seen, the figure for Glasgow (4.2 per 1,000 children aged 0-15) stands out as easily
the highest. The equivalent figures across the other West of Scotland councils range
from 0.5 (East Dunbartonshire) to 2.6 (Renfrewshire). The overall figure for all the
West of Scotland council areas was 2.3 per 1,000.
247
Figure 9.9
Children placed on child protection register (rate per 1,000), 2004
Source: Care Scotland
4.5
4.2
Rate per 1,000 0-15 year-olds
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.5
ire
w
sh
R
en
fre
Ea
st
Ay
rs
hi
re
rk
sh
ire
La
na
h
rto
ns
hi
re
So
ut
ire
rs
h
D
un
ba
Ay
W
es
t
N
or
th
ve
rc
ly
de
In
La
n
N
or
th
h
Ay
rs
h
ar
ks
hi
re
ire
sh
ire
So
ut
R
en
st
Ea
D
un
ba
Ea
st
fre
w
rto
ns
hi
re
ity
C
nd
la
sg
ow
W
es
t
G
of
Sc
ot
la
Sc
ot
la
nd
0.0
Council
As with looked after children,
ildren, the trend is generally upward. In Glasgow, although
there has been some fluctuation, the rate has increased from 2.7 in 1998 to 4.2 in
2004, with a particularly noticeable increase taking place in the last year of the
analysis. The Scottish and West of Scotland figures have also increased. Trends for
these three areas are illustrated in Figure 9.10 – note that these are presented as three
year rolling averages and so the point prevalences differ slightly from above.
Figure 9.10
Children placed on child protection register
Rate per 1000, three year rolling average, 1998 - 2004
Source: Care Scotland
3.5
Rate per 1000 children aged 0-15
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1998 - 2000
1999 - 2001
2000 - 2002
Scotland
West of Scotland
2001 - 2003
2002 - 2004
Glasgow City
248
Children in workless households
Although there are individual exceptions, the proportion of children in a population
living in workless households can be used as a proxy for children living in poverty.
Census data reveals that in 2001, almost one in five children (18%) in Scotland lived
in households where neither parent was in employment. As shown in Figure 9.11,
however, the pattern across West of Scotland ‘communities’ iii, 2 illustrates striking
differences. While in Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie only 6% and
7% of children, respectively, lived in workless households in 2001, the figure in
Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow was 47%, and for Bridgeton & Dennistoun one
in two children (50%) fell into this category. The polarity of life circumstances for
children in Greater Glasgow is further emphasised by the fact that, comparing across
the West of Scotland, Glasgow communities occupy the eight highest ranking
positions, all of which had 25% or more of children living in workless households. In
contrast, three Greater Glasgow communities had the lowest proportions of children
living in such circumstances. Note that the overall figure for Glasgow (not shown in
Figure 9.11) is 36%.
Figure 9.11
Dependent children living in households where no-one is in employment, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
Percentage of all dependent children
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
18
20
12
11
10
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
23
23
24
33
33
29
24
7
6
Ki
lb
rid
en
e
fre
w
sh
ire
C
ly
de
sd
So
al
ut
e
h
Ay
r
s
C
hi
um
re
be
rn
au
ld
Lo
m
Ea
on
d
st
Ay
rs
hi
re
H
am
Pa
is
ilt
le
on
y
In
an
ve
C
d
am
rc
L
l
yd
ev
bu
e
er
sl
an
n
Va
g
&
lle
R
y
ut
he
rg
l
e
M
n
ot
he
rw
el
l
W
is
N
ha
or
Ai
w
th
rd
Ay
rie
rs
&
hi
re
C
G
oa
la
tb
sg
rid
ow
ge
G
W
re
es
at
tE
er
nd
So
Sh
ut
aw
h
la
Ea
nd
st
s
G
Ea
la
C
sg
ly
st
de
er
ow
n
ba
G
nk
la
sg
&
M
ow
D
So
ar
r
um
yh
ut
ill/
h
ch
W
W
ap
es
oo
el
tG
ds
id
la
e
sg
Br
&
ow
id
N
ge
G
to
la
n
sg
&
ow
D
en
ni
st
ou
n
ke
th
ra
Ea
st
W
es
t
ar
&
Be
R
en
fre
w
d/
sl
an
ie
An
n
R
e
lv
in
vi
ga
iln
/M
en
sd
St
Ea
st
Sc
o
tl a
w
oo
nd
d
0
Community
At a postcode sector level (Figure 9.12) the differences become even starker. In the
ten areas with the lowest rates, the percentage of children in workless households
ranges from 2% to 4%, while in the ten areas with the highest rates, all of which are in
Glasgow, the percentages of children in workless households vary from 58% to 64%.
iii
These are primary care-based localities (mainly the old Local Healthcare Cooperative (LHCC) areas
or, in some cases, the new Community Health (Care) Partnerships (CH(C)Ps)) with populations
ranging from 20,000-140,000 people. For further details see ‘Preface to Chapters 2-12’.
249
Figure 9.12
Dependent children living in households where no-one is in employment, 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
70
64
Percentage of all dependent children
64
58
58
60
61
61
61
60
60
60
50
40
30
18
20
10
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
4
4
E
ls
on
et
Br
id
g
ad
es
D
to
al
n;
m
G
ar
or
no
ba
ck
S
ad
Tr
ilt
am
H
Pa
rk
he
on
ea
hi
ll
d
W
nh
e
us
To
w
Ib
ro
x
ho
er
Ea
st
hi
ll
uc
R
no
ck
nf
oo
Be
t;
Al
ar
lo
sd
w
en
ay
-K
es
si
ng
D
to
ru
n
m
ch
ap
el
N
E
s
rn
ea
Ki
lm
ar
M
hi
ll;
;K
i rk
Br
oo
m
ga
iln
D
oo
ck
no
ch
iff
-B
vi
e
G
ar
lo
lo
ch
n
in
M
Le
nz
ie
S;
H
Au
ch
ou
st
o
nn
n
-K
ilm
ar
di
st
o
nd
rk
la
la
C
Be
ar
sd
en
Sc
ot
y
0
Postcode sector
9.2 Behavioural factors
Pre-school overweight and obese children
Measurements of height and weight taken during 2001 allow us to estimate the
proportion of overweight and obese pre-school children in Scotland iv .
Figure 9.13 shows that, nationally, in 2001, 21% of pre-school children born in 1998
were classified as overweight or obese. Across the West of Scotland communities, the
figures varied from 16% in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie to 25% in both
Bridgeton & Dennistoun and in Cambuslang & Rutherglen. No information was
available below community level.
iv
Data collected by ISD Scotland’s Child Health Surveillance System at the 39-42 month review of
children born in 1998. Covers ten out of the 15 Scottish NHS Boards. Proportion of overweight/obese
children based on calculation, and ranking, of body mass index (BMI): overweight defined as children
at or above the 85th centile; obese defined as at or above the 95th centile.
250
Figure 9.13
% of pre-school children born in 1998 classed as overweight or obese, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
30
25
21
20
%
16
17
17
17
18
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
21
21
21
21
22
22
22
22
22
23
24
25
25
25
15
10
5
An
n
ie
sl
an
d/
B
ea
Sc
rs
ot
So den
l
/M and
ut
h
iln
Ea
ga
st
vi
e
G
la
sg
Ea ow
M
st
ar
yh
St woo
ill/ Gla
ra
d
W
s
t
h
g
R
en ood ow kel
v
fre
si
de We in
w
st
&
&
En
W
N
d
es
G
t R las
g
en
G
ow
re
at frew
er
s
Sh hir
aw e
la
nd
s
So Wis
ha
ut
h
Ay w
rs
hi
re
H
am
ilt
on
In
ve
Ea rcl
yd
st
Pa
Ay e
is
N
le
rs
or
y
h
ir
a n th
Ay e
d
Ai Lev rsh
ire
rd
er
rie
n
V
&
C alle
oa
Ea
y
tb
st
rid
er
n
ge
C
G
ly
la
de
sg
ba
o
nk
Lo w
&
m
D
o
ru
nd
m
ch
So
ap
C
ut
el
ly
h
W des
es
da
tG
le
la
Ea sg
ow
st
Ki
C
um lbrid
e
be
Br
rn
id
ge
M aul
C
d
ot
am ton
he
bu
&
rw
D
sl
el
en
an
l
ni
g
st
&
ou
R
ut
n
he
rg
le
n
0
Community
More recent data on children in Greater Glasgow born in 2001, and reviewed in
2004/05, show a similar picture, with an estimated 20% of children assessed as
overweight or obese, including 8% who were classed as obese 3 .
Dental health of children
At a national and NHS Board level the SHBDEP v , and latterly the NDIP vi , surveys
have been used to monitor trends in the dental health of five year-olds since 1987/88.
This is illustrated for Scotland and Greater Glasgow in Figure 9.14.
v
vi
Scottish Health Boards’ Dental Epidemiological Programme.
National Dental Inspection Programme.
251
Figure 9.14
Percentage of 5 year-olds with no decayed/missing/filled teeth ('zero caries'),
Scotland & Greater Glasgow 1987/99 - 2003/04
Source: NDIP; SHBDEP
60
% with no dental caries
50
40
30
20
10
0
1987/88
1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
Scotland
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
Greater Glasgow
The percentage of five year olds with no dental decay (‘zero caries’ experience vii )
fluctuated between 1987/88 and 2002/03 but showed little real change on a national
basis. However, in the most recent year for which data have been published – 2003/04
– the percentage of five year olds without dental decay rose to 51% nationally, and to
42% in Greater Glasgow.
Although such an increase is obviously welcome, this still means that in Greater
Glasgow almost six out of ten five year olds have experienced some level of dental
decay. Figure 9.15 shows this figure broken down by LHCC area viii within the city.
As can be seen, the proportion of primary one school children with ‘obvious or
advanced decay’ ix varies from 38% in the more affluent Anniesland, Bearsden &
Milngavie LHCC area, to 75% in the more deprived Drumchapel area.
vii
Defined as no decayed, missing or filled teeth.
Local Health Care Cooperative. LHCCs have now been replaced by the new Community Health
Partnerships (CHPs) (Community Health and Care Partnerships (CHCPs) within Glasgow).
ix
As defined by NDIP risk levels 2 or 3: risk level 2 – “obvious evidence of decay experience and/or
poor oral hygiene”; risk level 3 – “obvious advanced and/or widespread current decay”.
viii
252
Figure 9.15
Dental decay: % of 5 year-old children with obvious/advanced decay (risk level 2-3)
by LHCC area, Greater Glasgow, 2003-04
Source: NDIP
80
70
74
58
58
52
48
50
%
64
62
59
60
74
70
70
68
68
65
43
37
40
30
20
10
go
w
D
ru
m
ch
ap
el
So
ut
h
W
es
tG
la
s
id
e
on
W
oo
ds
go
w
ge
t
M
ar
yh
ill
Br
id
un
la
s
G
D
en
ni
st
o
N
or
th
Ea
s
te
rn
G
k
la
sg
ow
s
C
ly
de
ba
n
nd
ha
w
la
nd
tE
tS
G
w
W
es
la
sg
ow
la
sg
o
G
So
ut
h
Ea
st
G
th
ke
lv
in
gl
en
St
ra
am
C
An
ni
es
la
nd
/
st
w
oo
d
av
ie
Be
ar
sd
en
/
M
iln
g
la
sg
o
rG
re
at
e
G
Ea
w
0
LHCC area
It is known that the most common reason for admission to hospital among children is
for dental problems 4,5 . Within Scotland, between 1999 and 2002, there were almost
51,500 acute hospital admissions for dental related problems among children aged 015 years, almost 13,000 per year on average. Of that national four-year figure of
51,500, more than half of these dental admissions
issions (just over 27,000) took place within
a West of Scotland community, including almost 11,000 within Greater Glasgow.
Figure 9.16 shows that proportionally (i.e. as a rate per 100 children) East Ayrshire
and Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow recorded the highest rates among West of
Scotland communities (around 10.5 per 100 children over the four-year period), with
Eastwood and Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie having the lowest (2.1 and 3.0
respectively). Trends at a community level (for Greater Glasgow communities only)
are shown between two points of time (1991-94 and 1999-2002) in Figure 9.17.
Although, nationally, there has been a slight increase (from 4.7 to 5.2 per 100 over
four years), no clear pattern in trends is evident across the communities.
253
Figure 9.16
Admissions to hospital among children for dental related conditions,
four year total 1999-2002, expressed as crude rate per 100 children,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
Crude rate per 100 0-15 year-olds
12.0
10.4 10.5
10.0
7.7
8.0
6.0
5.3
4.0
3.0
3.3
3.6
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.9
6.0
8.0
8.2
8.3
8.6
9.0
9.5
6.2
2.1
2.0
An
n
ie
sl
an
d
/B
e
Sc
ot
la
Ea nd
ar
st
sd
w
en
oo
/M
d
iln
ga
vi
C
e
ly
de
sd
al
G
In
e
re
v
er
at
er
cl
y
Sh
de
aw
R
Ea lan
en
ds
st
fre
Ki
w
lb
&
r
id
W
e
es
W
tR
is
ha
en
w
fre
w
St shir
G
r
e
la
sg athk
ow
el
v
in
W
es
tE
M
nd
ot
he
rw
A
el
Pa irdr
C
am l
ie
is
le
&
gl
y
C
e
an
n
oa
d
Le tbrid
So
ve
ge
ut
rn
h
Va
Ea
lle
st
y
G
la
s
C
um go
w
be
rn
au
ld
H
C
am
ly
N
de
o
rth ilto
ba
nk
Ay n
&
rs
D
hi
r
Ea um r e
c
st
ha
er
pe
n
l
G
Br
la
So
sg
id
ut
ge
ow
h
to
Ay
n
So & D rsh
ut
en ire
h
ni
M
W
ar
es stou
yh
tG
n
ill/
W
la
sg
oo
ow
ds
id
Lo
e
m
&
on
N
d
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l
Ea asg
ow
st
Ay
rs
hi
re
0.0
Community
Figure 9.17
Admissions to hospital among children for dental related conditions,
4- year totals 1991-94 and 1999-2002, expressed as crude rate per 100 children,
Greater Glasgow Communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
12.0
Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow
South West Glasgow
Crude rate per 100 0-15 year-olds
10.0
Bridgeton & Dennistoun
Eastern Glasgow
8.0
Clydebank & Drumchapel
South East Glasgow
6.0
Camglen
Scotland
4.0
Glasgow West End
Strathkelvin
2.0
Greater Shawlands
Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie
0.0
Eastwood
1991-1994
1999-2002
Adolescent smoking, drinking and drug-taking
Analysis of the 2002 Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Use Survey
(SALSUS) gives an indication as to the current levels of smoking, drinking and drugtaking among adolescents (defined as 13 and 15 year olds).
254
Smoking
Nationally, 14% of 13 and 15 year olds were classed as being ‘regular smokers’ in the
2002 survey. At 9%, the proportion in Glasgow (both Greater Glasgow and Glasgow
City) was lower than the national figure, while other areas in the West of Scotland had
significantly higher rates e.g. 17% in North Ayrshire x (Figure 9.18).
Figure 9.18
Proportion of 13 and 15 year-olds classed as 'regular smokers', 2002
Greater Glasgow and West of Scotland council areas
Source: SALSUS
20
18
17
16
16
14
% of 13-15 year-olds
14
14
13
12
14
13
11
10
10
9
9
9
8
6
4
2
N/A
w
sh
ire
R
en
fre
ire
rs
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
N
or
th
Ay
h
So
ut
ar
ks
hi
re
La
n
ve
rc
ly
de
N
or
th
In
rto
ns
hi
re
rk
sh
ire
es
tD
un
ba
La
na
W
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
So
ut
st
Ea
fre
w
Ea
st
D
un
ba
R
en
st
rto
ns
hi
re
sh
ire
ity
C
go
w
la
s
G
Ea
G
re
a
te
r
G
Sc
la
sg
ow
ot
la
nd
0
Council
Generally, significantly higher rates of smoking were recorded among 13 and 15 year
old girls than boys e.g. 11% of girls compared to 7% of boys in Greater Glasgow
(Figure 9.19).
Local trends in smoking rates among 13 and 15 year olds are not available from
SALSUS. However, national trends (which may also be reflected at a local level)
show a decrease in smoking prevalence among 15 year olds since 1996: for boys the
prevalence rate dropped from 30% to 15%, and for girls from 30% to 24% (however,
the latter is not statistically significant). Rates for both sexes remained flat between
2000 and 2004. 6
x
For the three examples given (Glasgow City, Greater Glasgow and North Ayrshire), statistical
significance levels (reported in the 2002 SALSUS local reports) were calculated separately for the two
ages (13 and 15). Glasgow City and Greater Glasgow had significantly lower rates for pupils aged 15
(not 13), and similarly, North Ayrshire had significantly higher rates among pupils of that age only.
255
Figure 9.19
Proportion of 13 and 15 year-olds classed as 'regular smokers', by gender, 2002
Greater Glasgow and West of Scotland council areas
Source: SALSUS
25
Boys
Girls
21
% of 13-15 year-olds
20
19
18
16
16
15
17
16
15
11
11
11
11
11
10
7
12
12
11
10
10
9
8
7
6
11
5
N/A
w
sh
ire
ire
R
en
fre
Ay
h
W
es
t
So
ut
In
rto
ns
D
un
ba
Ay
rs
h
ve
rc
ly
de
hi
re
ire
rs
h
ar
ks
hi
re
N
or
th
N
or
th
La
ut
h
So
Ea
st
La
n
na
rk
sh
ire
ire
rs
h
Ay
Ea
st
D
un
ba
fre
w
st
R
en
Ea
rto
ns
hi
re
sh
ire
ity
G
re
a
G
te
r
G
la
sg
ow
C
la
sg
ow
Sc
ot
la
nd
0
Council
Drugs
Nationally, 15% of 13 and 15 year olds reported having taken drugs in the month
prior to the survey, ranging from 12% in Glasgow to 21% in North Ayrshire (Figure
9.20), figures which were, respectively, significantly lower and higher than the
national estimates xi . Within Glasgow, the rate was slightly higher among boys (Figure
9.21).
Figure 9.20
Proportion of 13 and 15 year-olds who had taken drugs in the last month, 2002
Greater Glasgow and West of Scotland council areas
Source: SALSUS
25
21
% of 13-15 year-olds
20
17
17
17
17
16
15
14
15
13
13
12
12
10
5
N/A
w
sh
ire
R
en
fre
Ay
rs
hi
re
N
or
th
rto
ns
hi
re
rk
sh
ire
W
es
tD
un
ba
La
na
So
ut
h
ar
ks
hi
re
La
n
N
or
th
ve
rc
ly
de
In
rto
ns
hi
re
Ay
rs
hi
re
h
So
ut
st
Ea
st
D
un
ba
Ea
fre
w
R
en
st
Ay
rs
hi
re
sh
ire
ity
C
go
w
la
s
G
Ea
G
re
a
te
r
G
Sc
la
sg
ow
ot
la
nd
0
Council
xi
In this instance, significance levels relate to 15 year olds only.
256
Figure 9.21
Proportion of 13 and 15 year-olds who had taken drugs in the last month, by gender, 2002,
Greater Glasgow and West of Scotland council areas
Source: SALSUS
30
28
Boys
Girls
% of 13-15 year-olds
25
20
15
15
19
18
17
13
16
15
14
12
12 12
15
16
15
19
18
16
15
14
14
12
10
10
10
5
N/A
ire
rs
hi
re
re
w
sh
R
en
f
N
or
th
Ay
ns
hi
re
ar
to
La
na
rk
sh
ire
W
es
tD
un
b
So
ut
h
La
na
rk
sh
ire
N
or
th
th
In
ve
rc
ly
de
Ay
rs
hi
re
hi
re
So
u
ar
to
ns
rs
hi
re
Ay
tD
un
b
Ea
s
Ea
st
w
sh
ire
R
en
fre
G
la
s
go
w
C
ity
Ea
st
G
re
at
e
rG
Sc
ot
la
la
sg
ow
nd
0
Council
Data on drug use has only been collected in SALSUS since 1998 so, even at a national
level, trends (which have been fairly flat) are limited.
Alcohol
The majority of 13 and 15 year olds across Scotland (including Glasgow and the West
of Scotland) have tried alcohol (Figure 9.22), and around one in three were reported in
the survey as having drunk alcohol in the previous week (Scotland: 35%; Glasgow
City and Greater Glasgow: 29% and 30% respectively (both significantly lower than
the national figure) – Figure 9.23), with little difference evident between the sexes
(Figure 9.24).
257
Figure 9.22
Proportion of 13 and 15 year-olds who have ever had an alcoholic drink, 2002
Greater Glasgow and West of Scotland council areas
Source: SALSUS
100
90
78
% of 13-15 year-olds
80
76
74
73
76
77
76
80
78
77
80
70
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
N/A
So
ut
h
R
en
fre
Ay
w
sh
rs
h
ire
ire
ire
rs
h
Ay
W
So
ut
h
N
or
th
La
na
rk
sh
ire
ar
ks
hi
re
ire
N
or
th
Ea
st
La
n
Ay
rs
h
rto
ns
hi
re
es
tD
un
ba
st
R
en
In
fre
w
rto
ns
Ea
Ea
st
D
un
ba
ve
rc
ly
de
sh
ire
hi
re
ity
la
s
G
G
re
a
te
r
G
go
w
la
s
C
go
w
Sc
ot
la
nd
0
Council
Figure 9.23
Proportion of 13 and 15 year-olds who had drunk alcohol during the last week, 2002, Greater
Glasgow and West of Scotland council areas
Source: SALSUS
40
36
35
35
33
30
28
25
20
15
10
5
N/A
w
sh
ire
R
en
fre
ire
rs
h
Ay
h
So
ut
Ay
rs
hi
re
N
or
th
Ay
rs
hi
re
st
Ea
N
or
th
La
n
ar
ks
hi
re
rk
sh
ire
So
ut
h
La
na
ve
rc
ly
de
In
sh
ire
st
R
en
fre
w
rto
ns
hi
re
Ea
es
tD
un
ba
W
Ea
st
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
ity
go
w
la
s
G
G
te
r
re
a
G
C
la
sg
ow
ot
la
nd
0
Sc
% of 13-15 year-olds
36
31
30
29
30
36
34
33
Council
258
Figure 9.24
Proportion of 13 and 15 year-olds who had drunk alcohol during the last week, by gender,
2002, Greater Glasgow and West of Scotland council areas
Source: SALSUS
45
Boys
40
39
35
34
35
% of 13-15 year-olds
Girls
36
32
30 29
30
30
29 29
30 30
36 35
35
33 33
32
38
34
33
34
29
26
25
20
15
10
5
N/A
ire
re
w
sh
R
en
f
Ay
rs
hi
re
So
u
or
th
th
Ay
rs
hi
re
ire
rs
h
Ay
La
na
rk
sh
ire
Ea
st
N
So
ut
N
or
th
h
In
ve
La
na
rk
rc
l
sh
ire
yd
e
ire
w
sh
Ea
st
R
en
fre
ar
to
ar
to
Ea
st
D
un
b
W
es
tD
un
b
G
G
ns
ns
hi
re
hi
re
C
ity
w
la
sg
ow
la
sg
o
re
at
e
rG
Sc
ot
la
nd
0
Council
Again, trends for local areas are not available. However, the national trend showed
increasing levels of alcohol drinking among 13 and 15 year olds of both sexes
between 1990 and 2004..
Summaries of the SALSUS figures on smoking, alcohol and drugs use for the
Glasgow area are presented in Figures 9.25 and 9.26.
Figure 9.25
Smoking, alcohol and drug use among 13 and 15 year-olds,
Scotland, Greater Glasgow & Glasgow City, 2002
Source: SALSUS
40
35
35
30
% of 13-15 year-olds
30
29
25
20
15
10
15
14
13
9
12
9
5
0
Regular smoker
drunk alcohol in past week
Scotland
Greater Glasgow
taken drugs in past month
Glasgow City
259
Figure 9.26
Smoking, alcohol and drug use among 13 and
15 year-olds in Greater Glasgow, by gender, 2002
Source: SALSUS
35
boys
girls
30
30
29
% of 13-15 year-olds
25
20
15
15
12
11
10
7
5
0
Regular smoker
drunk alcohol in past week
taken drugs in past month
Teenage alcohol hospitalisation
Rates of acute hospitalisation among teenagers (ages 13-19) for alcohol related and
attributable causes (1999-2001) were included in the 2004 Constituency Health and
Well-being Profiles. A summary chart for the West of Scotland parliamentary
constituencies is shown in Figure 9.27. The graph shows a three-fold difference
between the constituency with the lowest rates, Strathkelvin & Bearsden (0.4 hospital
stays per 100 population), and the constituency with the highest, Glasgow Springburn
(1.2 per 100). Note that these figures only include teenagers actually admitted to
hospital, and do not reflect those attendances at Accident and Emergency which do
not result in an inpatient admission.
260
Figure 9.27
Teenage alcohol related/attributable hospitalisations, 1999-2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow constituencies
Average annual crude rate per 100 pop aged 13-19,
Source: NHSHS Constituency Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
Crude rate per 100 pop aged 13-19
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.0 1.0 1.0
0.9 0.9
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.4 0.4 0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
0.7 0.7
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
0.8 0.8 0.8
0.4
0.2
ly
de
ba
nk
C
St
ra
th
ke
lv
in
a n Sco
t
d
Be land
ar
sd
E
e
an ast n
w
d
oo
M
G
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sg
ow avie
W Ea Ke
lv
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t R K in
en ilbr
H fre ide
am w
C
ilt shi
um
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be
So
C
rn
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ld
M Air an da
H oth drie d K le
am e
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on
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S
N and ho
or
W tts
G th
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a
C las
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oa
g
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r
ll
i
G
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ll
en
i
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k
an Ch nd
d rys
In
t
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r
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G w
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ng
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m h
Pa e N ill
G
la
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So
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ut ut
Pa her h
G
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l
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y
o
ar
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ck
a
C
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k,
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ck gh Po
a
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k
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d
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G oon uth
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r
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Sp e s t
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gb
ur
n
0.0
Parliamentary Constituency
In terms of actual numbers of admissions, the rate in Strathkelvin & Bearsden
represents an average of 33 hospital stays per year, while there were an average of 71
in Glasgow Springburn.
There has been a marked increase in admissions over a ten-year period between
1989/91 and 1999/01. For all Scotland, admissions increased by around 22% over the
period, with more notable rises evident in some areas of Glasgow and the West of
Scotland e.g. Glasgow Rutherglen (60% increase), Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley
(80% increase).
Road traffic casualties
The final section in this chapter examines briefly road traffic casualties among
children. Figure 9.28 shows child road accident casualties by local authority area for
the time period 1999-2003. Note, however, that a number of caveats (explained in
full in the appendices) around this data should be borne in mind, not least the fact that
casualties have been assigned to a council area in which an accident occurred
(although clearly not all casualties will have necessarily come from that area).
261
Figure 9.28
Child (under 16) casualties of road accidents per 10,000 population, 1999 vs 2003
West of Scotland council areas
Source: Scottish Executive
50.0
47
43
45.0
Crude rate per 10,000 pop
40.0
37
35
35
33
35.0
1999
32 33
29
30.0
34
32
31
30
2003
37
36
29
28
31
27
25
27
24
25.0
22
21
20.0
18
15
15.0
10.0
5.0
fre
w
sh
Ea
ire
st
D
un
ba
rto
ns
hi
re
ire
rs
h
R
en
Ay
st
Ea
N
or
th
ar
ks
hi
re
ire
La
n
hi
re
w
sh
N
or
th
R
en
fre
rto
ns
rk
sh
ire
W
es
tD
un
ba
La
na
h
Ea
st
Ay
rs
hi
re
ve
rc
ly
de
rs
h
Ay
h
In
ire
ity
C
go
w
la
s
G
So
ut
So
ut
W
es
t
of
Sc
Sc
ot
la
nd
ot
la
nd
0.0
Council
This Figure shows that over the period there was a reduction in the rate of child road
accident casualties in the majority of the West of Scotland council areas with the
exception of South Ayrshire where the rate rose slightly. The rate of child road
accident casualties in the West of Scotland as a whole (29 per 10,000 in 2003,
representing a total of 1,194 casualties) is slightly higher than the Scottish average
(25.5 per 10,000). However, great variations in rates are evident across the different
council areas. Glasgow had the highest rate of child casualties in both 1999 and 2003,
although the rate decreased by 25% over this period to 35.3 per 10,000 (representing
376 casualties). Despite this drop, the rate of child casualties in Glasgow was still
double that in East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire.
262
Summary
x
We know that the circumstances in which children are raised can have a major
bearing on their future health and well-being. Recent studies have shown, for
example, that children in care are more likely to go on to experience considerable
problems and challenges in later life 7 . Given that, this chapter highlights areas of
considerable concern, such as:
o The estimated 6,000+ children in Glasgow living with a parent with a
substance misuse problem.
o In Glasgow, 2,500 children are looked after by the local authority – and twice
that number are looked after across all the West of Scotland council areas.
o Almost 1,000 children in the West of Scotland are on a child protection
register.
o There is a significant number of children living in households where neither
parent is in employment: in 2001, well over 100,000 West of Scotland
children fell into this category.
x
These are big numbers for only one part of a small country. Furthermore, the
proportions of children who are looked after and who are on child protection
registers are increasing, and while we have no trend data on the estimated
numbers affected by parental substance problems, the fact that levels of drug and
(especially) alcohol related harm are rising, means that it is unlikely that the
proportion of children affected by these problems will diminish in the near future.
x
Further bad news in terms of children’s health is provided by the trend in teenage
alcohol related hospitalisation, and in the levels of alcohol consumption, and drugtaking, by adolescents.
x
The rising level of adult obesity was highlighted as a major concern in Chapter 7:
Behaviour. To add to this, the fact that an estimated one fifth of pre-school
children (i.e. three to four year olds) are either overweight or obese should clearly
have important policy implications. Indeed, although no Glasgow/West of
Scotland specific data are available, recently released, national figures estimate
that over one third of primary seven pupils are overweight, one in five are obese
and more than one in ten are classed as ‘severely obese’.
x
However, some more positive evidence around the health of children can be
glimpsed in the national decrease in rates of smoking among adolescents
(especially among boys), as it is likely that this decline is also true of the West of
Scotland.
x
Better news is also provided by evidence that the dental health of children is
slowly improving – although the fact that even in the more affluent parts of
Greater Glasgow almost four out of ten children have ‘obvious or advanced
decay’ suggests there is no room for complacency.
263
x
The decrease in road traffic casualties among children is also welcome. Although
casualty rates in Glasgow remain the highest in the West of Scotland, the 33%
decrease in the five-year period between 1999 and 2003 can be seen as a success
story.
264
References
1
Hay G, Gannon M, McKeganey N. Estimating the number of children affected by
parental substance misuse in Glasgow (University of Glasgow Centre for Drug
Misuse Research report for Glasgow City Council Addiction Services). June 2005
2
NHS Health Scotland. Community Health and Well-being Profiles. 2004
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/communityprofiles
3
ISD Scotland. Obesity statistics – children.
http://www.isdscotland.org/isd/info3.jsp?pContentID=3640&p_applic=CCC&p_servi
ce=Content.show&
www.isdscotland.org/isd/files/childhood_obesity.xls
4
Scottish Executive. Towards Better Oral Health in Children. 2002
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/consultations/health/ccoh-00.asp
5
ISD Scotland. Morbidity statistics – children.
http://www.isdscotland.org/isd/info3.jsp?pContentID=1781&p_applic=CCC&p_servi
ce=Content.show&
http://www.isdscotland.org/isd/info3.jsp?pContentID=2044&p_applic=CCC&p_servi
ce=Content.show&
6
Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Use Survey (SALSUS)
National Report. 2004
http://www.drugmisuse.isdscotland.org/publications/abstracts/salsus.htm
7
Scottish Executive. The Report from the Working Group on the Throughcare and
Aftercare of Looked After Children in Scotland. Edinburgh: The Stationery Office,
2002
265
At the 2001 census, almost one in four residents of Greater Glasgow reported that they
suffered from a limiting long-term illness, health problem or disability. About 15% of
Glaswegians stated that their health was “not good”.
Across Glasgow and the West of Scotland, huge variation in the recorded rates of such
self assessed measures can be seen. The same is also true of a number of different
indicators of health, function and disability which are derived from government benefits
systems.
The boundaries of Greater Glasgow incorporate both the ‘unhealthiest’, and
‘healthiest’, areas within Scotland, as measured by such indicators.
In the year 2000, almost one fifth of the working age population of Greater Glasgow
(more than 85,000 adults) were classified as being unable to work due to illness or
disability. Since then the rate has fallen, but only slightly. Effective solutions to reduce
the high numbers of people not in the employment market due to disability could be one
of the key drivers for health improvement in Glasgow.
“Glasgow communities appear to be at either end of the spectrum of
prevalence of limiting long-term illness.”
“In the ten areas with the lowest rate of adults claiming Incapacity Benefit
or Severe Disability Allowance only 2% to 4% of adults were claiming
these benefits in 2000, while in the highest rate areas – all in Glasgow –
the rates of adults claiming these benefits ranged from 31% to 49% of the
working age population.”
“Some of the communities in and around Glasgow are the ‘healthiest’ in
Scotland.”
Chapter 10: Health and function
Summary
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 10: Health and function
This chapter examines a selection of indicators grouped under the broad heading of
‘health and function’. This concept is included in many current models of health and
is defined in terms of issues such as disability, the need for care/support, and the
ability to carry out activities of daily living.
Two sets of indicators are presented in an attempt to describe the varying patterns of
health and function across Glasgow and the West of Scotland. These are: self-assessed
measures from the Census, and data derived from government benefits systems. The
latter are slightly problematic because of changes in eligibility criteria over time.
However, although individual indicators may suffer from specific weaknesses and
caveats, the presentation of all these data together provides a reasonable insight into
the overall patterns of health and function across the West of Scotland.
10.1 Self assessed measures
Limiting long-term illness
According to the 2001 Census, 20% of the population in Scotland stated that they
suffered from a ‘limiting long-term illness, health problem or disability which limits
their daily activities or the work they can do’ i . This represented a considerable rise
from the figure of 15% reported in the 1991 Census. Whether there has been a real
change in the number of people suffering such problems, or whether the rise is in part
because the public is more willing to ‘admit’ to such problems, has been subject to
debate. Nevertheless, this is an important indicator of overall and relative health
status.
At 24%, the 2001 figure for the Greater Glasgow area was higher than that of
Scotland as a whole. Figure 10.1 shows the variation in levels of limiting long-term
illness (LLI) across the West of Scotland ‘communities’ ii . This shows that Greater
Glasgow communities appear at either end of the spectrum of prevalence: the lowest
rates occur in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie (15%), Eastwood (15%) and
Strathkelvin (18%), while the highest rates occur in South West Glasgow (28%),
Eastern Glasgow (28%), Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow (30%) and Bridgeton
& Dennistoun (30%).
i
This definition includes problems due to old age. Full definition of this, and other indictors presented
in this chapter, are included in Appendix 1.
ii
These are primary care-based localities (mainly the old Local Healthcare Cooperative (LHCC) areas
or, in some cases, the new Community Health (Care) Partnerships (CH(C)Ps)) with populations
ranging from 20,000-140,000 people. For further details see ‘Preface to Chapters 2-12’.
269
Figure 10.1
% of population with a limiting long-term illness, health problem or disability, 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
35
30
30
30
28
% of population
25
20
20
15
15
21
20
20
19
18
18
22
21
22
22
22
22
22
23
23
24
24
26
25
24
28
15
10
5
An
ni
es
la
nd
/B
ea
Sc
rs
ot
de
la
nd
n/
M
iln
ga
vi
e
Ea
st
w
oo
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d
ra
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ke
lv
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in
st
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lb
rid
R
e
en
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fre
m
w
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o
um
&
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be
es
rn
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au
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sh
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ire
h
Ay
rs
hi
re
C
ly
de
Pa
sd
N
is
or
a
le
le
th
y
an
Ay
d
rs
Le
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er
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la
n
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Va
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y
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at
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aw
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re
In
ve
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ot
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l
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on
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&
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at
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br
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e
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n
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ch
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is
W
M
ha
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ar
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yh
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ill/
la
sg
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er
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n
ds
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id
la
e
sg
Br
&
id
ow
N
ge
G
to
la
n
sg
&
ow
D
en
ni
st
ou
n
0
Community
At a postcode sector level, differences in LLI between areas are more marked.
arked. In the
ten areas with the lowest levels, the rates range from 10% to 13% of the population,
while in the ten highest rate areas the figures range from 36% to 41%. As can be seen
in Figure 10.2, the latter are all areas of known deprivation and multiple social and
health problems.
Figure 10.2
% of population with a limiting long-term illness, health problem or disability 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
45
40
36
37
37
38
38
41
39
41
41
41
30
25
20
20
15
10
11
11
12
12
12
12
11
12
13
10
5
E
C
ar
nt
yn
e
Pa
rk
ho
G
re
us
en
e
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k
C
en
tra
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to
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al
to
n
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id
s;
n;
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or
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iln
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id
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al
m
ar
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ck
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at
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s
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le
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M
ai
ns
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t.
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ad
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y
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rn
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irk
hi
ll;
Br
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m
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em
ys
s
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on
on
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ou
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la
Vi
Be
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ar
ge
sd
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en
ul
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la
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as
r
tle
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rn
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D
ow
an
hi
ll
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illh
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d
0
C
um
be
r
% of population
35
Postcode sector
270
Self-assessed health
Self-assessed health – also collected in the 2001 Census – is a similar indicator of
general health status. The pattern of people stating that their health was ‘not good’
across the West of Scotland communities is comparable to that just shown for limiting
long-term illness. The lowest rates of people describing their health as poor were in
Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie (7%), Eastwood (7%), and Strathkelvin (9%),
while the highest rates occurred in South West Glasgow (16%), Eastern Glasgow
(17%), Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow (19%) and Bridgeton & Dennistoun
(20%). The figure for all Scotland was 10%. These are shown in Figure 10.3.
Figure 10.3
% of population who rated their health 'not good', 2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
22
20
19
18
16
% of population
16
14
12
12
10
9
10
8
7
9
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
19
17
14
12
7
6
4
2
An
ni
es
la
nd
/B
ea
Sc
rs
ot
de
la
nd
n/
M
iln
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st
w
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St
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lv
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i
n
st
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lb
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h
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hi
R
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en
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m
w
on
&
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d
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ly
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es
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al
en
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sh
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ire
st
Ay
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be
Pa
r
na
N
is
or
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th
d
y
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Va
lle
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In
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ve
la
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ly
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es
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s
sl
H
an
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on
R
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e
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C
is
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el
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h
la
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la
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id
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s
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go
&
id
N
w
ge
G
to
la
n
sg
&
ow
D
en
ni
st
ou
n
0
Community
Note that no comparable question was asked in the 1991 census.
At a postcode sector level (Figure 10.4), the contrast between areas is more
pronounced. In the ten areas in which the population assessed its health most
positively in 2001, only 5% to 6% of people claimed that their health was ‘not good’.
In the areas with poorest self-assessed health, the rates of poor self-assessed health
ranged from 20% to 28% of the population; in other words between one in five people
to one in four people in these populations stated their health was ‘not good’. These ten
areas are all in Glasgow and in areas of relative deprivation.
271
Figure 10.4
% of population who rated their health 'not good', 2001
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from 2001 Census data)
30
28
25
% of population
22
23
24
24
23
25
25
26
26
20
15
10
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
6
C
al
to
n
C
ar
nt
yn
e
Br
id
ge
to
n
E
D
al
m
ar
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ck
Pa
rk
ho
us
e
ll
on
hi
ll
R
uc
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ilt
H
Sc
ot
la
nd
Be
ar
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C
en
la
r
ks
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to
as
n
tle
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l
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l;
yn
Th
dl
or
an
n
d;
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D
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m
a
nh
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ill
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n
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au
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to
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he
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ad
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ls
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at
la
nd
s
0
Postcode sector
Note that the overall figure for Greater Glasgow in 2001 was 14% of the total
population. At a council level the figure for Glasgow City was 15.6%, almost double
the figures for Edinburgh (8.1%) and Aberdeen (8.5%).
10.2 Benefits data
Adults unable to work due to illness/disability
This indicator, based on claimants of Incapacity Benefit or Severe Disability
Allowance iii , is important for several reasons. It can be tracked on an annual basis and
identifies working age adults who are unable to work for health reasons. In Scotland
in 2000, over 320,000 adults (10.6% of the working age population) were claiming
Incapacity Benefit or Severe Disability Allowance. This figure was three times that of
those claiming unemployment benefit. In Glasgow during the year 2000, almost one
in five of the working age population was categorised as unable to work for this
reason. This indicator is also important as it shows a strong correlation with other
health measures such as life expectancy and mortality.
Across the West of Scotland communities, the pattern in the rates of adults unable to
work due to illness or disability in 2000 was very similar to those seen for LLI and
poor self assessed health. The lowest rates were observed in Anniesland, Bearsden &
Milngavie and Eastwood (both 5%), with the highest rates in South West Glasgow
(20%), Eastern Glasgow (21%), Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow (24%) and
Bridgeton & Dennistoun (25%). These data are shown in Figure 10.5 below.
iii
See definition in Appendix 1.
272
Figure 10.5
% of adults of working age unable to work due to illness/disability, 2000
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from DWP data)
30
% of working age population
25
24
25
20
21
20
15
15
11
10
8
9
10
9
11
11
12
11
12
12
15
15
15
16
17
17
17
13
13
5
5
5
An
ni
es
la
nd
/B
ea
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ot
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la
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iln
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on
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la
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ds
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la
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sg
Br
&
id
ow
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ge
G
to
la
n
sg
&
ow
D
en
ni
st
ou
n
0
Community
At a small area level (Figure 10.6), the contrast between areas with lowest and highest
rates of adults on these benefits is striking. In the ten lowest rate areas, only 2% to 4%
of adults were claiming these benefits in 2000, while in the highest rate areas – all in
Glasgow – the rates of adults claiming
ng these benefits ranged from 31% to 49% of the
working age population.
Figure 10.6
% of adults of working age unable to work due to illness/disability, 2000
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from DWP data)
60
49
42
40
31
32
32
32
33
35
44
37
30
20
11
10
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
C
al
to
n
D
al
m
ar
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ck
C
ar
nt
yn
e
Pa
rk
he
ad
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ilt
on
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ll
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id
ge
to
n
E
0
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yn
ot
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an
d;
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ow
an
hi
ll
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m
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;
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en
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e
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s
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rk
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ad
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as
tle
m
ilk
W
% of working age population
50
Postcode sector
273
Figure 10.7 shows that since 2000, there has been no change in the national
proportion of working age adults unable to work for this reason, while the figure for
Glasgow has decreased, but only slightly: from 19% in 2000 to 17% in 2004.
Figure 10.7
Adults unable to work due to illness/disability
Incapacity benefit/severe disability allowance claimants, 2000-2004
Source: DWP
40.0
Glasgow City
35.0
% of working age population
Scotland
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
These figures are considered further at the end of the chapter.
Disability Living Allowance – mobility component
Disability Living Allowance is payable to people who are disabled and who have
personal care needs, mobility needs, or both. The pattern in the rates of adults
claiming the mobility component of this benefit is similar to the patterns seen for
Incapacity Benefit / Severe Disability Allowance, limiting long-term illness and selfassessed health. The lowest rates are observed in Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie
and Eastwood (both around 2%), while the highest rates are in Bridgeton &
Dennistoun, South West Glasgow (both 8%), Eastern Glasgow and Maryhill,
Woodside & North Glasgow (all above 8%) (Figure 10.8).
274
Figure 10.8
% of adults claiming Disability Living Allowance - Mobility Component (18-64 years), 1999 West of
Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from DWP data)
10
9.2
9
8.6
8.3
8.3
8
7
6
%
7.1
6.7
6.5
6.4
6.3
5.9
5
4.5
4.3
4.2
4.1
4
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.5
5.5
3.4
3
2.2
2.0
2
1
An
ni
es
la
nd
/B
ea
rs
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at
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y
ve
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y
st
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or
ire
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rie
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&
ilt
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ch
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ge
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is
n
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&
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w
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en
ut
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h
st
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ou
M
e
st
n
ar
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la
ill/
sg
st
W
er
ow
oo
n
ds
G
la
id
e
sg
&
ow
N
G
la
sg
ow
0
Community
At a small area level (Figure 10.9) there is a ten-fold difference in rates between the
ten areas with lowest claimant rates (1% to 2% of adults claiming this benefit) and the
ten areas with highest claimant rates (12% to 19%). The latter are all areas of known
deprivation and multiple social and health
ealth problems.
Figure 10.9
% of adults claiming Disability Living Allowance - Mobility Component, 1999
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from DWP data)
20
18.6
17.3
18
16
15.0
15.0
12.7
12.6
12.3
13.9
13.8
13.7
14
10
8
6
4.5
4
2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.3
ck
m
al
D
Br
id
ge
ar
to
no
n
lto
E
n
e
us
ho
Ca
ll
hi
on
rk
Pa
am
ilt
H
he
rk
Pa
ar
nt
ad
yn
S
e
ll
hi
its
C
ig
H
N
ss
il
N
Po
h
he
rk
Pa
ll;
hi
tle
-C
as
W
ad
Th
or
n
ck
y
em
G
ys
s
iff
no
Ba
n
to
rk
s
lo
la
Be
ar
sd
en
M
iln
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ar
an
ga
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e
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nd
la
yn
d
de
-B
ow
ng
si
es
-K
n
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ar
s
ch
ll
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n
to
rn
ea
M
ll;
hi
irk
Be
Br
o
om
;K
en
sd
ar
Be
s
y
nn
di
ar
-K
G
ilm
le
n
ot
Fr
la
ui
nd
n
0
Sc
%
12
Postcode sector
275
Blue badge holders
Blue badge parking permits are issued to recipients of some disability related benefits,
and to other ‘permanently and substantially disabled’ individuals iv . It is thus a useful
(if, obviously, not comprehensive) proxy for levels of some forms of disability in the
population.
Over 220,000 blue badge parking permits were on issue as at March 2004, of which
almost 100,000 had been issued to individuals resident in the West of Scotland, and
more than 23,000 to Glasgow inhabitants. The full breakdown for each West of
Scotland local authority area is shown in Figure 10.10. Note, however, that it is
unclear to what extent the variation in rates across the country is attributable to need,
greater uptake, different council practices or just to differences in age structure.
Figure 10.10
Blue badges - total number on issue at March 2004, West of Scotland council areas
Source: Scottish Executive - Scottish Transport Statistics 2004
25000
23,243
Scotland: 223,995
West of Scotland: 93,970
20000
Total number
15,524
15000
13,694
10,602
10000
6,892
6,420
5000
3,817
2,974
5,217
4,330
1,257
ity
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0
Council
Figure 10.11 shows the total number of blue badges on issue in 2004 expressed as a
crude rate per 100 population aged 17 and above. Proportionally, North Ayrshire has
the highest figures, with a rate of almost 10 per 100 population, while the area with
the lowest rate is East Renfrewshire (1.8 per 100 population). The rate for Glasgow is
4.9 per 100 population.
iv
Badges are issued automatically to recipients of mobility (and other) allowances and issued on
discretionary basis to people with a permanent and substantial disability who are unable or nearly
unable to walk. Full definitions are listed in Appendix 1.
276
Figure 10.11
Blue badges on issue at March 2004 - crude rate per 100 population aged 17+, West of
Scotland council areas
Source: Scottish Executive - Scottish Transport Statistics 2004
12.0
9.8
10.0
Council
8.0
7.2
4.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.5
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Crude rate per 100 pop aged 17+
A clear upward trend for badge issues can be seen between 1998 and 2004 (Figure
10.12), with, for example, the rate for the West of Scotland having increased by
approximately 30% over that period.
Figure 10.12
Issues of Orange/Blue Badges, 1998-2004
Crude rates per 100 population aged 17+
Source: Scottish Executive Transport Division
6.0
Crude rate per 100 population aged 17+
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1998
1999
2000
Scotland
2001
West of Scotland
2002
2003
2004
Glasgow City
277
Attendance Allowance
The last indicator considered in this section is Attendance Allowance. This is a benefit
for people over the age of 65 who have physical or mental health needs of sufficient
severity that they require a great deal of help with personal care or supervision.
The pattern of rates of claimants of Attendance Allowance across West of Scotland
communities is again similar to the patterns seen for other disability related indicators
presented in this chapter. Figure 10.13 shows that the lowest rates are observed in
Anniesland, Bearsden & Milngavie (12%) and Eastwood (13%), while the highest
rates are in Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow (23%), Eastern Glasgow (24%) and
Bridgeton & Dennistoun (25%).
Figure 10.13
% of elderly population (65 + years) claiming Attendance Allowance, 1999
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from DWP data)
30
% of population aged 65+
25
20
12
15
15
14
14
13
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
25
24
23
21
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10
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Community
In the ten areas with lowest claimant rates at a postcode sector level, 7-11% of the
elderly population were claimants, while in the ten areas with the highest claimant
rates, 28-34% of the elderly were claiming Attendance Allowance (Figure 10.14).
278
9
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% of population aged 65+
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Figure 10.14
% of elderly population (65 + years) claiming Attendance Allowance, 1999
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from DWP data)
40
32
33
34
25
20
15
15
11
5
0
Postcode sector
279
Summary
x
In one sense these indicators merely reinforce what we already know: that the
poorer parts of Glasgow have poorer health and higher levels of disability.
However, what it again highlights is the fact that Glasgow is not one homogenous
population. Just as there are many areas of poor health, there are other areas that
are much healthier than the Scottish average and, indeed, some of the
communities in and around Glasgow are the ‘healthiest’ in Scotland.
x
It is also clear that differences in health between these areas are to a large extent
mirrored by differences in health behaviour, educational attainment, employment,
income and overall deprivation.
x
The extent to which areas have changed over time in terms of their absolute and
relative levels of health and disability is difficult to determine from these data but
would be worthy of further study. We can be reasonably sure, however, that at
least over the last ten to fifteen years many of these areas will have remained in
the same relative positions.
x
The proportion of the working age population unable to work due to illness and
disability is striking. More than 10% of the working age population across
Scotland fall into this category, with the proportion in some areas of Glasgow
having been more than 40% in 2000. Across the Glasgow communities, more than
85,000 adults fall into this category. Obviously, there are issues to be considered
with this indicator. In the past it has suited governments to have people classified
as ‘sick’ rather than ‘unemployed’, and there are still suggestions today that some
claimants prefer to continue receiving sickness/disability related benefits rather
than other unemployment related payments, given eligibility and other criteria
associated with the latter. Furthermore, at the time of writing, the UK government
is proposing significant changes to the Incapacity Benefit system which will have
a major effect on some claimants.
x
Nonetheless, and despite these historic and ongoing issues, it is clear that effective
solutions to reduce the high numbers of people outwith the employment market
due to disability, could be one of the key drivers for health improvement in
Glasgow. As discussed in Chapter 3: Population and life expectancy, Glasgow as
a whole has a relatively low dependency ratio with a relatively high proportion of
working age adults. However, with such a high proportion of this section of the
population not in the employment market due to disability, the advantages of this
relatively large working aged population are largely lost. There would clearly be
economic and health gains from bringing this ‘lost’ sector of the population back
into meaningful employment.
280
New estimates of primary-care based disease prevalence provide a helpful overview of
the total numbers of the Greater Glasgow population affected by particular conditions,
and confirm the higher levels evident in more deprived areas.
Important types of hospital admission, such as diabetes, have been increasing
significantly. The levels, and variations in levels, of admission to hospital for deliberate
self harm are striking, as is the long-term trend in suicides among men.
There have been significant reductions in rates of road accident casualties in recent
years.
Deaths from heart disease and stroke have more than halved in Greater Glasgow over
the past 25 years. However, Glasgow’s rate of decrease has not matched that of the
rest of the country. A gap has thus emerged between the rates in Greater Glasgow and
Scotland.
Around one fifth of the population of the West of Scotland die before their 65th
birthday. In the more deprived areas, figures are much higher (especially among men),
and alcohol is one of the main causes of premature death.
“Rates of admission to hospital for diabetes more than doubled in the ten
year period analysed (1991/93 – 2000/02) and this increase is mirrored in
many parts of Glasgow.”
“The trend in cancer deaths is downward: across Scotland between 199092 and 2000-02 deaths from all cancers dropped by 10%, and this level of
decrease is mirrored in a number of Glasgow communities.”
“West Central Scotland’s relatively poor levels of life expectancy are
reflected in the fact that around one fifth of the population die before their
65th birthday.”
Chapter 11: Illness and disease
Summary
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 11: Illness and disease
This chapter highlights a number of key points in relation to patterns and trends in
morbidity and mortality in the West of Scotland and, particularly, Glasgow. However,
no attempt has been made to present a detailed description of all the main illnesses
affecting the population. This information is available elsewhere. Rather, the purpose
of this chapter is to highlight some important trends and present some relatively new
information on elements of disease prevalence.
The chapter is divided into five sections: an analysis of disease prevalence in Greater
Glasgow (as measured at a primary care level); an examination of a handful of
relevant hospital admission based indictors; road accident casualties among all ages;
trends in a small number of cause-specific mortality rates; and premature mortality.
Note that several of the indicators discussed in other chapters are also relevant here:
for example, levels of disability (in Chapter 10: Health and function), child road
accident casualties (in Chapter 9: Children and adolescents) and alcohol related deaths
(Chapter 7: Behaviour).
11.1 Estimates of disease prevalence at a primary care level
The figures presented in this section are taken from the QOF (Quality and Outcomes
Framework) data first published by ISD Scotland in summer 2005. The data – collated
as part of the system to remunerate GPs within the new General Medical Service
(GMS) contract 1 – include, for each practice, the total number of patients recorded on
each of eleven separate disease registers. Participation in the scheme is, however,
voluntary, and the data presented here for the NHS Greater Glasgow area covers 210
out of the 215 Greater Glasgow practices i .
There are two important points to note with regard to these data:
x
x
Given the five missing GP practices, the figures will be an underestimate of the
true disease prevalence of each disease category. Other important caveats are
listed in Appendix 1.
The data are currently not available by age or sex. Thus, where crude rates are
presented, they do not take into account the age/sex structures of the populations.
Variations in rates could, therefore, be a consequence of, for example, larger
proportions of elderly patients within a practice population.
All data should, therefore, be interpreted with caution.
i
Nationally, 99% of practices submitted data – only 14 out of 1038 failing to do so. However, five of
those 14 were in the Greater Glasgow area (three within South West Glasgow, one in the West End of
Glasgow, and one in the Bridgeton & Dennistoun area).
283
Figure 11.1 shows the total number of patients recorded on nine of the disease
registers in the 210 NHS Greater Glasgow practices. This allows us to see that, for
example, more than 105,000 patients in Greater Glasgow have been diagnosed with
hypertension, 47,500 patients have been diagnosed with asthma, and around 40,000
with coronary heart disease (CHD). There are also about 30,000 diagnosed diabetics
(aged 17+), 22,500 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), over
7000 patients with epilepsy (aged 16+), and more than 5,000 patients with severe and
long-term mental health problems ii .
Figure 11.1
Selected disease prevalence in Greater Glasgow, 2005
Numbers of patients on GP disease registers (210 out of 215 practices)
Source: ISD Scotland (QMAS Database as at May 2005)
120,000
106,463
Total number of patients
100,000
80,000
60,000
47,469
41,621
40,000
29,627
22,544
21,300
16,936
20,000
7,128
5,364
Epilepsy
Severe mental
health problems
0
Hypertension
* TIA - Transient Ischaemic Attack
Asthma
CHD
Diabetes
COPD
Hypothyroidism
Stroke & TIA*
Disease Register
Figures 11.2 to 11.8 show the breakdown of these figures across different practices
within Greater Glasgow. Please note that the data are presented by location of the
practice, not the location (residence) of the patient. As discussed above, these are
crude, unstandardised rates, and should be interpreted with caution.
It can be noted that:
x
x
x
Despite the many caveats listed above, a familiar pattern is evident in the majority
of these graphs in terms of (a) the enormous variation in rates across Greater
Glasgow, and (b) the more deprived parts of the city being associated with the
highest prevalence rates for many conditions.
For example, we see that for asthma (Figure 11.2), about one in ten patients
served by GP practices within parts of Drumchapel have been diagnosed as
suffering from this condition, whereas for patients within the more affluent
Hillhead area – only two or three miles distance from Drumchapel – the figure is
less than two in a hundred.
In areas with the highest rates of diagnosed hypertension (Figure 11.3), almost
one in five of the practice population have been diagnosed, compared to just 3.5%
in the area with the lowest figure (Hillhead).
ii
Patients with severe and long-term mental health problems: numbers are restricted to those
undergoing regular follow-up.
284
x
Similar, or greater, variations in rates are seen for all conditions (e.g. coronary
heart disease (Figure 11.4), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (Figure
11.5), stroke (Figure 11.8)
Although relating to much smaller numbers of patients, the crude rate of
diagnosed epilepsy (Figure 11.6) among adults is also much higher in practices
based within more deprived areas (e.g. Drumchapel, Calton, Hutchesontown),
with a ten-fold variation in rates between these areas and those with the lowest
rates.
Diabetes (Figure 11.7) among adults shows a different picture, however, with
high rates recorded in some affluent, as well as more deprived, areas. This may be
affected by, for example, some practice populations having higher proportions of
elderly patients and/or members of minority ethnic populations (some of which
are known to experience higher levels of diabetes).
x
x
Figure 11.2
Asthma: crude (unstandardised) prevalence rates by GP Practice, 2005
Comparison of 10 practices with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates, Greater Glasgow*
Source: ISD Scotland (QMAS Database as at May 2005)
Crude rate per 100 practice population
14.0
11.5
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
7.1
5.4
7.2
7.3
7.5
7.9
8.0
8.2
8.3
9.0
5.0
4.0
2.9
2.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
1.8
1.8
s;
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* Includes 210 out of the 215 practices in the NHSGG area
Postcode sector of GP Practice
285
Figure 11.3
Hypertension: crude (unstandardised) prevalence rates by GP Practice, 2005
Comparison of 10 practices with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates, Greater Glasgow*
Source: ISD Scotland (QMAS Database as at May 2005)
Crude rate per 100 practice population
25.0
20.0
16.8
17.5
17.7
18.1
17.9
18.6
18.8
18.9
19.0
19.2
15.0
11.5
11.3
10.0
5.0
3.5
4.4
5.1
5.2
5.8
5.9
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
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Postcode sector of GP Practice
* Includes 210 out of the 215 practices in the NHSGG area
Figure 11.4
Coronary heart disease: crude (unstandardised) prevalence rates by GP Practice 2005;
Comparison of 10 practices with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates, Greater Glasgow*
Source: ISD Scotland (QMAS Database as at May 2005)
Crude rate per 100 practice population
9.0
8.2
7.0
7.1
7.7
7.7
7.6
8.0
7.8
8.5
7.8
7.2
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.6
4.4
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.9
* Includes 210 out of the 215 practices in the NHSGG area
n
n
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Postcode sector of GP Practice
286
Figure 11.5
COPD: crude (unstandardised) prevalence rates by GP Practice, 2005
Comparison of 10 practices with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates, Greater Glasgow*
Source: ISD Scotland (QMAS Database as at May 2005)
Crude rate per 100 practice population
10.0
8.8
9.0
8.0
8.0
7.0
5.7
6.0
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.6
6.9
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.4
1.9
2.0
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
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Po
an
t
on
rt
d;
D
D
un
ow
da
an
s;
hi
W
ll
oo
dl
an
ds
Ki
ng
sp
ar
k
H
i
l
lh
Ea
e
st
ad
er
ho
us
Ba
e
Br
W
rm
id
ul
ge
lo
to
ch
n
;R
W
ob
ro
ys
t
on
C
ar
do
na
ld
S
Sc
G
ot
re
la
at
nd
er
G
la
sg
ow
0.0
Postcode sector of GP Practice
* Includes 210 out of the 215 practices in the NHSGG area
Figure 11.6
Epilepsy (age 16+): crude (unstandardised) prevalence rates by GP Practice, 2005
Comparison of 10 practices with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates, Greater Glasgow*
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.7
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
* Includes 210 out of the 215 practices in the NHSGG area
C
al
to
ry
n
;L
i
n
D
nv
ru
al
m
e
ch
ap
el
S
Pa
E
rk
he
D
ad
ru
m
N
ch
ap
el
N
H
E
am
ilt
on
hi
ll
C
al
to
n
C
ar
D
nt
ru
y
ne
m
ch
ap
el
H
ut
N
ch
E
es
on
to
w
n
D
ru
m
illh
e
H
Po
rt
D
un
da
re
at
Sc
ot
G
s;
ad
W
H
oo
yn
dl
dl
an
an
ds
d;
H
D
yn
ow
dl
an
a
nd
M
hi
iln
ll
;D
ga
ow
vi
an
e
-K
hi
ll
ey
H
st
illh
on
e;
ea
D
d
ou
ga
ls
to
n
Sh
aw
la
nd
s
C
la
rk
st
on
C
la
rk
st
on
St
ep
ps
0.0
la
nd
er
G
la
sg
ow
Crude rate per 100 practice population aged 15+
Source: ISD Scotland (QMAS Database as at May 2005)
Postcode sector of GP Practice
287
Figure 11.7
Diabetes (age 17+): crude (unstandardised) prevalence rates by GP Practice, 2005
Comparison of 10 practices with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates, Greater Glasgow*
12.0
10.2
10.0
8.1
8.0
6.6
5.4
6.0
3.8
4.0
5.5
5.6
5.9
6.7
6.9
5.9
3.8
1.3
2.0
1.4
1.9
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
H
illh
ea
d
;D
ow
la
an
nd
hi
ll
;D
ow
an
hi
Ke
ll
lv
in
gr
ov
Ke
e
lv
in
gr
ov
e
R
uc
hi
ll
H
C
yn
la
dl
rk
an
st
on
d;
D
ow
an
hi
ll
Ki
ng
sp
ar
k
W
oo
D
ru
ds
m
id
ry
e
;L
in
nv
al
C
e
ar
do
Pa
na
rk
C
Ba
ld
am
C
S
irc
rm
bu
us
ul
sl
lo
;W
an
ch
g
oo
;R
S
dl
ob
an
ro
ds
ys
;C
to
ow
n
ca
dd
en
Pa
s
rk
he
ad
S
H
illh
N
ew
ea
d
to
n
M
ea
rn
s
Ba
ttl
ef
Ki
ie
nn
ld
in
g
Pa
rk
S
la
nd
rG
la
sg
ow
0.0
H
yn
d
H
yn
d
G
la
nd
re
at
e
Sc
ot
Crude rate per 100 practice population aged 15+
Source: ISD Scotland (QMAS Database as at May 2005)
Postcode sector of GP Practice
* Includes 210 out of the 215 practices in the NHSGG area
Figure 11.8
Stroke/TIA*: crude (unstandardised) prevalence rates by GP Practice, 2005
Comparison of 10 practices with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates, Greater Glasgow**
Source: ISD Scotland (QMAS Database as at May 2005)
Crude rate per 100 practice population
6.0
4.7
5.0
4.0
3.7
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.7
3.8
3.4
3.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
n
M
ea
Ki
rn
nn
s
in
g
Pa
rk
S
H
illh
ea
d
H
illh
ea
d
St
ep
ps
Ba
ttl
ef
ie
ld
Ki
ng
sp
ar
k
Ki
ng
sp
ar
k
Sc
ot
st
ou
n
Yo
rk
hi
ll
Pa
rk
ho
R
u
se
ut
Sh
he
et
rg
tle
le
st
n
on
W
;T
ol
lc
ro
ss
Pa
rk
he
ad
S
Yo
ke
rS
C
ar
nt
yn
H
e
am
ilt
on
hi
ll
Po
Yo
lm
ke
ad
rN
ie
;T
or
yg
le
C
n
ar
do
na
ld
S
N
ew
to
go
w
la
s
er
G
G
re
at
Sc
ot
la
nd
0.0
* Transient Ischaemic Attack
** Includes 210 out of the 215 practices in the NHSGG area
Postcode sector of GP Practice
The caveats surrounding this information are significant as the data have important
limitations. Nevertheless, the data provide us with a useful overview of the extent to
which the population of Greater Glasgow is affected by some common conditions.
288
11.2 Hospital admissions data
Some of the most common reasons for hospital admission (e.g. heart disease, cancer,
stroke) are discussed elsewhere in this chapter. Here, four reasons for admission are
considered: diabetes, ‘external’ causes, deliberate self harm, and psychiatric
admissions. Diabetes is included on account of its increasing prevalence in recent
years. The term ‘external causes’ covers a number of reasons for hospital admission
including road accidents, assaults, falls, drowning and poisonings. It is important
because research has shown that a number of the causes included in this broad
grouping are contributing to the rising trend in death rates among young men in
Scotland 2 , and because of the association between high rates of admission for these
reasons and deprivation. Deliberate self harm is one such ‘external’ cause and,
alongside psychiatric admissions, allows us insight (albeit extremely limited) into
patterns of mental ill-health in Glasgow and the West of Scotland.
Diabetes iii
Figure 11.9 shows the average annual age-standardised rates for admissions to
hospital for diabetes in each Greater Glasgow and West of Scotland ‘community’ iv .
At this community level, there is more than a four-fold variation across the areas. At a
small area level (Figure 11.10), the rate in the postcode sector with the highest rates is
around twenty five times that of the area with the lowest – although, as always with
such small area analysis, one should bear in mind that rates are based on a relatively
small number of actual events.
iii
As with all data presented in this chapter, a full definition of this indicator is included in Appendix 1.
These are primary care-based localities (mainly the old Local Healthcare Cooperative (LHCC) areas
or, in some cases, the new Community Health (Care) Partnerships (CH(C)Ps)) with populations
ranging from 20,000-140,000 people. For further details see ‘Preface to Chapters 2-12’.
iv
289
vi
e
Sc
ot
la
nd
-B
ar
lo
ch
H
Er
yn
sk
dl
i
ne
an
E
d;
Be
D
ar
ow
sd
an
en
hi
-K
ll
es
si
ng
t
on
Be
ar
sd
R
al
en
st
H
on
-K
ol
y
ilm
Is
ar
la
di
nd
nn
;I
y
sl
e
of
Ar
ra
n
H
illh
ea
C
d
ar
do
na
ld
S
Lo
un
sd
al
Ba
e
rm
ul
lo
ch
;R
Ki
rk
ob
in
ro
til
ys
lo
ch
to
n
N
;H
i
llh
Po
ea
llo
St
d
ks
ra
hi
th
el
bu
ds
ng
;B
o
el
la
ho
us
to
n
H
ig
h
Po
ss
il
Ba
lo
rn
oc
k
Pa
rk
ho
us
e
H
am
ilt
on
hi
ll
Sp
rin
gs
id
e
M
iln
ga
Age standardised rates per 100,000 population
R
en
fr e
w
/B
e
ar
Sc
sd
en otla
nd
/M
iln
&
Ea ga
W
v
Pa
es st K ie
is
tR
il
le
y
en brid
an
e
fre
d
So Le wsh
ve
ire
ut
C
r
h
n
ly
W
de
Va
es
ba
t G lley
nk
l
as
&
D
ru gow
m
ch
a
G
Ea pel
la
sg
s
ow two
o
W
es d
tE
nd
H
am
ilt
C
o
ly
de n
sd
al
Lo e
m
o
M
C
ot nd
am
h
er
bu
w
sl
e
an
W ll
g
is
&
ha
R
w
ut
he
rg
le
I
n
Ea
ve n
st
er rcly
n
de
G
la
C
um sgo
be w
Br
S
rn
id
au
ge out
h
to
Ay ld
n
rs
&
So
hi
D
re
en
ut
h
Ea nist
ou
st
n
G
la
N
sg
or
o
th
Ay w
rs
Ea
hi
st
r
Ay e
r
s
Ai
rd Stra hire
rie
M
th
ar
ke
&
yh
lv
ill/ Gre Co
in
at
W
at
br
er
oo
i
ds
Sh dg
id
aw e
e
la
&
nd
N
s
G
la
sg
ow
An
ni
es
la
nd
Age standardised rates per 100,000 population
Figure 11.9
Diabetes: average annual age-standardised hospitalisation rates, 2000-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
1400.0
1200.0
600.0
1141
1000.0
800.0
530
400.0
263
87
472
434 445
381 400 403
342 366
300 315
160
162
177
180
196
199
220
221
523
559 560 564
1140
1145
624 627 642
1163
1179
680 686
1500.0
1223
723
770 785
1578
1614
822
890
200.0
0.0
Community
Figure 11.10
Diabetes: average annual age-standardised hospitalisation rates, 2000-2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
2500.0
2000.0
2119
1338
1642
1000.0
500.0
530
222
0.0
Postcode sector
290
More striking still is the trend over ten years in rates of admission to hospital for
diabetes. Nationally, rates more than doubled over the ten year period analysed. In
terms of actual numbers, this equates to an increase from an average of 17,000
admissions per year at the beginning of the 1990s to around 40,000 admissions per
year a decade later. As can be seen from Figure 11.11, this increase is mirrored in
many parts of Greater Glasgow including Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow (the
community with the highest rate of admission in Scotland, and where the rate also
increased by almost 100% over the ten years), with some areas experiencing even
steeper increases over the period (e.g. Greater Shawlands, where rates rose more than
three-fold). Trends for postcode sectors (Figure 11.12) appear to show a widening gap
between the small areas with the lowest rates of admission and those with the highest.
Figure 11.11
Diabetes: average annual age-standardised hospitalisation rates,
Greater Glasgow communities 1991/93 - 2000/02
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
1,400.0
Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow
Greater Shawlands
1,200.0
Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop
Strathkelvin
South East Glasgow
1,000.0
Bridgeton & Dennistoun
Eastern Glasgow
800.0
Cambuslang & Rutherglen
600.0
Scotland
Glasgow West End
400.0
Eastwood
Clydebank & Drumchapel
200.0
South West Glasgow
0.0
Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie
1991 - 1993
1994 - 1996
1997 - 1999
2000 - 2002
Figure 11.12
Diabetes: average annual age-standardised hospitalisation rates, 1991/93 - 2000/02
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1991 - 1993
1994 - 1996
1997 - 1999
2000 - 2002
Hamiltonhill
Parkhouse
Balornock
High Possil
Pollokshields; Bellahouston
Strathbungo
Kirkintilloch N; Hillhead
Patna; Dalmellington….
Carnwadric; Darnley E
Cowlairs
Scotland
Lounsdale
Cardonald S
Hillhead
Holy Island; Isle of Arran
Bearsden - Kilmardinny
Ralston
Bearsden - Kessington
Hyndland; Dowanhill
Erskine E
Milngavie - Barloch
291
‘External’ causes
At a community level (Figure 11.13), a two and a half-fold variation in hospitalisation
rates for ‘external’ causes is evident across the West of Scotland, with the rates in
Bridgeton & Dennistoun also about 60% higher than the national figure. At a small
area level (Figure 11.14), the variation is more extreme: in the period 2000-02, the
postcode sector with the highest rates (Calton) experienced admissions to hospital for
this reason at around three times the national rate, and about six times the rate of the
small area with the lowest figure, (Newton Mearns).
Figure 11.13
'External' causes: average annual age-standardised hospitalisation rates, 2000-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
Age standardised rates per 100,000 population
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
4000.0
3307
3500.0
3000.0
2500.0
2038
2000.0
1500.0
1285
1000.0
500.0
An
ni
es
la
nd
/B
e
ar
Sc
sd
en otla
nd
/M
iln
ga
v
Ea
ie
st
w
St
oo
ra
d
th
ke
lv
C
in
ly
de
R
E a sd
en
al
fr e
st
e
Ki
w
C
l
&
um brid
W
e
es
b
t R ern
au
en
G
l
la
d
f
sg rew
ow
sh
ire
W
es
tE
M
ot nd
he
rw
el
H
am l
ilt
G
o
re
n
L
at
er om
Sh o n
d
aw
la
nd
W s
i
sh
Ai
a
C
In
am rdri
ve w
rc
bu e &
l
y
sl
an Coa de
g
tb
&
rid
R
ge
C
ut
ly
he
S
de
rg
ba out
l
Pa
nk h A en
is
yr
&
le
s
D
y
ru hire
an
m
d
Le cha
ve
pe
rn
l
N
or Val
le
th
Ay y
rs
So Ea
hi
st
r
ut
Ay e
h
Ea
rs
hi
st
r
e
Ea
G
M
la
ar
sg
S o ste
yh
r
o
n
u
ill/
w
W th W Gla
oo
sg
ds est
ow
G
Br ide
la
id
ge & N sgo
w
to
G
n
la
&
sg
D
en ow
ni
st
ou
n
0.0
Community
Figure 11.14
'External' causes: average annual age-standardised hospitalisation rates, 2000-2002
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates,
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
7000.0
5770
6000.0
5996
4969
5000.0
3979
3980
4050
4228
4304
4406
4476
4000.0
3000.0
2038
2000.0
1055
1034
1098
1136
1144
1144
1195
1200
1208
1209
1000.0
n
al
to
C
H
G
yn
iff
dl
no
an
ck
Be
d;
ar
D
ow
sd
en
an
hi
-K
Bi
ll
sh
ilm
op
ar
br
di
ig
n
gs
ny
N
Ea
;C
M
st
ilt
a
Ki
dd
on
lb
er
rid
O
fC
e
E
a
m
-S
p
si
ai
e
nt
Le
on
ar
ds
C
la
rk
st
Fe
on
rg
us
lie
Pa
rk
H
am
ilt
o
Ea
nh
st
Ay
ill
er
rho
H
us
ar
e
bo
W
ur
an
d
Ib
W
ro
To
x
w
n
C
en
tre
Br
id
ge
to
n
E
Tr
G
ad
ov
es
an
to
n;
G
or
ba
ls
D
al
m
ar
no
ck
-K
Be
ar
sd
en
-W
es
te
rto
n
es
si
ng
to
n
ea
rn
s
M
de
n
;K
Be
ar
s
irk
h
ill;
Sc
ot
la
nd
0.0
Br
oo
m
Age standardised rates per 100,000 population
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
Postcode sector
292
Over recent years, there has been a generally upward trend in admissions to hospital
for this reason. Nationally, rates increased by around 12% between 1990-92 and
2000-02, and similar (and in some cases, greater) rises were evident within most
Greater Glasgow communities (Figure 11.15). Interestingly, one of the few areas to
buck this trend and show a decrease in rates for admission to hospital for this reason
over the period was Bridgeton & Dennistoun, the community with the highest
admission rate in Scotland.
At a small area level, however, Figure 11.16 shows the gap between the sectors with
the highest rates, and those with the lowest rates, to be widening.
Figure 11.15
'External' causes: average annual age-standardised hospitalisation rates,
Greater Glasgow communities 1991/93 - 2000/02
Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
4,400.0
Bridgeton & Dennistoun
3,900.0
Maryhill/Woodside & N
Glasgow
South West Glasgow
3,400.0
Eastern Glasgow
South East Glasgow
2,900.0
Clydebank & Drumchapel
Cambuslang & Rutherglen
2,400.0
Greater Shawlands
1,900.0
Scotland
Glasgow West End
1,400.0
Strathkelvin
900.0
Eastwood
Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie
400.0
1991 - 1993
1994 - 1996
1997 - 1999
2000 - 2002
Figure 11.16
'External' causes: avg annual age-standardised hospitalisation rates, 1991/93 - 2000/02
Comparison of 10 small areas with highest rates and 10 with lowest rates
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
8000
Dalmarnock
Tradeston; Gorbals
Govan
7000
Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop
Bridgeton E
Ayr - Harbour and W Town Centre
6000
Ibrox
Easterhouse W
Hamiltonhill
5000
Ferguslie Park
Garngad; Royston
4000
Scotland
Clarkston
3000
East Kilbride E - Saint Leonards
Milton Of Campsie
Bishopbriggs N; Cadder
2000
Bearsden - Kilmardinny
Hyndland; Dowanhill
1000
Giffnock
Bearsden - Kessington
Bearsden - Westerton
0
1991 - 1993
1994 - 1996
1997 - 1999
2000 - 2002
Broom; Kirkhill; Mearns
293
Deliberate self harm
Deliberate self harm is another indicator which must be interpreted cautiously. As
with all hospital based data, rates of admission to hospital for this reason can be
affected by proximity to hospital services. Also, there have been inconsistencies,
historically, in the manner in which some of these admissions have been coded in
hospitals. Despite these caveats, it is a valuable measure of this type of morbidity, and
Figure 11.17 shows huge variation in hospitalisation rates for deliberate self harm
across the West of Scotland: a five-fold difference between East Kilbride (the
community with the lowest rates) and Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow (the
highest).
Figure 11.17
Deliberate self harm: average annual age-standardised hospitalisation rates, 2000-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
600.0
526
475
500.0
400.0
313
300.0
238
262 262 273
291
367 374
348 357
327 334 335
312 324
392 401
422 423
446 447
211
200.0
105
121
145
100.0
0.0
An
ni
es
la
nd
/B
e
Sc
ot
Ea
la
nd
st
ar
Ki
sd
en lbri
de
/M
iln
ga
v
ie
Ea
st
w
oo
d
H
am
So
ilt
St
on
ut
r
a
h
W thke
es
l
t G vin
C
am
la
sg
R
en bus
ow
C
la
fr e
ng lyde
w
sd
&
&
al
R
W
e
ut
es
t R her
gl
en
en
fre
w
C
um shir
G
e
la
sg ber
na
ow
ul
W
d
es
tE
nd
Lo
m
on
So
In
d
ut
v
h
er
Ea
cl
yd
st
e
Ea
G
la
st
sg
er
ow
G
n
re
G
at
la
er
s
Sh gow
aw
la
nd
Ai
M
rd
rie oth s
er
&
w
C
oa ell
Pa
tb
is
So
rid
le
ut
y
g
h
a
Ay e
Br nd
rs
Le
id
hi
ge
ve
to
rn re
n
Va
&
l
D
en ley
C
ni
ly
de
st
ou
ba
n
nk
W
&
is
ha
D
ru
w
m
M
ch
N
ar
or
ap
yh
th
el
ill/
Ay
W
rs
Ea
oo
hi
ds
st
re
id
Ay
e
rs
&
hi
N
re
G
la
sg
ow
Age standardised rates per 100,000 population
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
Community
Note that the rates presented in Figure 11.17 equate to more than 6,700 hospital stays
on average per year across the West of Scotland.
Variation at the small area level is even more marked. However, given the relatively
small number of events at this level, it is not shown here. Trends cannot be shown due
to coding discrepancies prior to the mid 1990s v .
Trends in rates of suicide for the Greater Glasgow area are discussed in section 11.4
(mortality).
v
See Appendix 1 for more details.
294
Psychiatric hospital admissions
Figure 11.18 shows, by West of Scotland community, age-standardised rates for first
admissions to hospital as a psychiatric inpatient. The highest rates of admission were
recorded within the Maryhill, Woodside & North Glasgow community: between 2000
and 2002 the average annual hospitalisation rate within that community was twice that
of the country as a whole, and three times the rate of the community with the lowest
rate of admission, Eastwood. Note that the relatively high rates within the Paisley &
Levern Valley community are probably influenced by the proximity of Dykebar
Hospital in Paisley. Other areas may be similarly affected.
Figure 11.18
First psychiatric hospital admissions, average annual age-standardised rates 1999-2001
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
400.0
373
350.0
299
300.0
322
230 234 235
217 218 226
200 209
189 196
184
181
180
177
250.0
200.0
311
275
264 267
192
150.0
152 159
141 145
120
100.0
50.0
0.0
An
ni
es
la
nd
/B
e
Sc
ot
la
Ea nd
ar
st
sd
w
en
oo
/M
d
iln
ga
St
vi
ra
e
th
Ea kelv
in
st
Ki
lb
r
i
C
de
C
ly
am
de
s
C
bu
um da
sl
an
be le
g
rn
&
au
R
ld
ut
he
rg
le
M
n
ot
he
rw
Ai
el
rd
H
rie
am l
&
ilt
C
oa on
tb
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g
Lo e
So
m
o
u
G
n
th
re
Ay d
at
rs
er
Sh hire
aw
N
la
or
nd
th
Ay s
rs
hi
re
W
is
R
Ea
ha
en
st
w
fr e
Ea
Ay
w
st
rs
&
er
hi
W
n
re
G
es
la
t
sg
So Re
ow
n
ut
fre
h
Ea w s
hi
st
re
G
la
sg
o
G
I
w
nv
la
sg
e
ow rcly
So
de
ut
W
C
h
ly
W est
de
es
En
ba
tG
d
Pa
nk
la
is
&
sg
le
D
y
ow
ru
an
m
d
M
Br
Le cha
ar
id
yh
ge
pe
ve
ill/
to
l
rn
W
n
Va
&
oo
l
D
le
ds
e
y
nn
id
e
is
&
to
N
un
G
la
sg
ow
Age standardised rates per 100,000 population
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from ISD Scotland data)
Community
Trends at a community level are relatively flat but with no sign of the gap between
‘high’ and ‘low’ areas being narrowed (Figure 11.19).
Figure 11.19
First psychiatric hospital admissions: average annual age-standardised rates,
Greater Glasgow communities 1990/92 - 1999/01
Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland
Maryhill/Woodside & N
Glasgow
Bridgeton & Dennistoun
450.0
Age standardised rate per 100,000 population
400.0
Clydebank & Drumchapel
350.0
South West Glasgow
Glasgow West End
300.0
South East Glasgow
250.0
Eastern Glasgow
200.0
Greater Shawlands
150.0
Scotland
Cambuslang & Rutherglen
100.0
Strathkelvin
50.0
Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie
Eastwood
0.0
1990 - 1992
1993 - 1995
1996 - 1998
1999 - 2001
295
Given the relatively small number of events recorded at a postcode sector level, this
particular indicator is not presented here at a small area level.
11.3 Road accident casualties
Road accident casualties among children were discussed in Chapter 9: Children and
adolescents. This section briefly considers trends in adult road accident casualty rates,
taken from the 2004 constituency profiles 3 .
Figure 11.20 shows, by West of Scotland parliamentary constituency, road accident
casualty rates (for all ages) per 10,000 population for 1991 compared to 2002.
Nationally, rates fell by 25% over this ten year period. A similar decrease was evident
across the West of Scotland constituencies, with the 1991 figure of almost 11,000
casualties falling to around 8,100 in 2002. As Figure 11.20 shows, this decrease was
matched, and in some cases bettered, by the majority of the West of Scotland
constituency areas, with notable falls in rates visible in Eastwood (50%), Paisley
South (41%) and West Renfrewshire (39%), while rates in five of the Glasgow
constituencies fell by more than 30%.
Figure 11.20
Road accident casualties (all ages), 1991 vs. 2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow constituencies
Source: Transport Statistics, Scottish Executive
160
Rate per 10,000 population
140
1991
2002
120
100
80
60
40
20
C
um
be
rn
au Sco
St
ld tla
ra
& nd
th
ke Ea Kils
lv st
y
in
K th
& ilb
H Be ride
a
a
G mi rs
M las lton den
ot go
he w So
u
C rwe Ca th
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t
n
& hc
G ing W art
la ha is
sg
h
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R Sou
ut
G
he th
la
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e
a
o
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C lasg An woo
ly
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o
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de w es d
ba B la
nk ail nd
& lies
M to
iln n
ga
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lm la
e
ar sg
no ow A
yr
H Cu ck
am nn & Pol
ilt ing Lo lok
on
h ud
N am ou
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ric G es h & or
k , re e t R B t h
e
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um noc enf llsh
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& ve ire
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Pa n V de
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la ey ey
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la
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r
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Sh ill
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rid Sp o
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G n
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ow yd an
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S s
G he dal
la ttl e
sg es
ow to
Ke n
lv
in
0
Parliamentary constituency
Figure 11.20 also shows that in 2002 the highest rates of road accident casualty were
in the Glasgow Kelvin constituency, with a rate almost three times the national
average. However it should be borne in mind that the Glasgow Kelvin constituency
boundaries include the city centre and, given its high traffic volumes, this is likely to
distort the residence-based rate presented. The rates of casualties for other
constituencies with extensive road networks and/or above average traffic volumes
may be similarly inflated for these reasons.
296
Despite these caveats it is noticeable that the casualty rates in a number of the more
deprived constituencies (e.g. Glasgow Shettleston, Glasgow Springburn and Glasgow
Maryhill) are above average, while rates are much lower than the national average in
the affluent suburbs of West Renfrewshire and Eastwood. Interestingly, some of these
deprived constituencies with high casualty rates also tend to have the lowest rates of
car ownership, while the opposite is true of the more affluent constituencies: for
example, while 68% of households do not have access to a car or a van in Glasgow
Shettleston, the figure in Eastwood is only 20%.
11.4 Mortality
This section briefly considers trends in mortality for the three leading causes – heart
disease, stroke and cancer – as well as suicide. Note that deaths due to liver cirrhosis
and, more broadly, all alcohol related mortality, are discussed in Chapter 7:
Behaviour.
Heart disease
As is well known, heart disease is one of the three main causes of death in Scotland.
Figure 11.21 shows, for Scotland and Greater Glasgow, age-standardised rates in
ischemic heart disease for males aged 15 to 74 between 1976 and 2001.
Figure 11.21
Ischaemic Heart Disease: age standardised death rates, males (15-74)
Greater Glasgow and Scotland, 1976-2001
Source: GRO(S)
500
Rate per 100,00 population per year
400
300
200
100
0
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Greater Glasgow
Scotland
This shows that rates in Scotland, and in Greater Glasgow, have more than halved
since the mid 1970s. Despite this good news, however, Figure 11.21 also shows that
at the beginning of the period the rates for Greater Glasgow were identical to those of
the country as a whole, but since then a gap between the two sets of rates has
emerged. A similar picture can be seen for females.
297
Figure 11.22 shows that rates in heart disease mortality have also decreased across all
the Greater Glasgow communities vi . Across the ten year period presented, rates in
Scotland fell by about one third, and a similar level of reduction is visible across most
Greater Glasgow communities. This chart also shows that, as with so many other
indicators, considerable variations in rates persist across these different areas.
Figure 11.22
Heart disease: average annual age-standardised death rates,
Greater Glasgow communities, 1991/93 - 2000/02
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from GRO(S) data)
350.0
Bridgeton & Dennistoun
Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow
Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop
300.0
Eastern Glasgow
South West Glasgow
250.0
South East Glasgow
Clydebank & Drumchapel
200.0
Greater Shawlands
150.0
Cambuslang & Rutherglen
Glasgow West End
100.0
Scotland
Strathkelvin
50.0
Eastwood
Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie
0.0
1991 - 1993
1994 - 1996
1997 - 1999
2000 - 2002
Cerebrovascular disease
Deaths from strokes (cerebrovascular disease) in Greater Glasgow show a similar long
term trend to ischemic heart disease. Figure 11.23 shows, again for males aged 15 to
74 and again for Greater Glasgow and Scotland, mortality rates from stroke over a 25year period. Although mortality rates have fallen dramatically over the period, a
widening gap between the rates in Greater Glasgow and Scotland is again visible. A
similar, though slightly less pronounced, gap is also seen in the equivalent trend for
female deaths.
vi
Note that there are major differences in the definitions and calculation methods relating to the figures
presented in Figures 11.21 and 11.22 and thus the rates in the two sets of graphs are not directly
comparable. All definitions are included in Appendix 1.
298
Figure 11.23
Cerebrovascular Disease: age standardised death rates, males (15-74)
Greater Glasgow and Scotland, 1976-2001
Source: GRO(S)
120
Rate per 100,00 population per year
100
80
60
40
20
0
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Greater Glasgow
Scotland
Suicide
Suicide remains the leading cause of death among young men in Scotland 4 . Figure
11.24 shows a 25-year trend in age-standardised rates of suicide among men in
Greater Glasgow and Scotland. As can be seen, rates have more than doubled in
Greater Glasgow over the period, and as with stroke and heart disease, there is
evidence of a widening gap between the Greater Glasgow rates and those of Scotland,
particularly in the last decade.
Figure 11.24
Suicide: age standardised death rates, males (15-74)
Greater Glasgow and Scotland, 1976-2001
Source: GRO(S)
30
Rate per 100,00 population per year
25
20
15
10
5
0
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Greater Glasgow
Scotland
299
Cancer
The final cause of death discussed here is cancer. Figure 11.25 shows the average
annual age-standardised cancer mortality rate across the various Greater Glasgow and
West of Scotland communities in the period 2000-02. A similar, and predictable,
pattern of variation is evident (lower rates in the more affluent communities, higher
rates in the more deprived), although there is slightly less variation than in the
equivalent data for heart disease mortality. The trend in cancer deaths is also
downward: across Scotland between 1990-92 and 2000-02 deaths from all cancers
dropped by 10%, and this level of decrease is mirrored in a number of Greater
Glasgow communities (Figure 11.26).
Figure 11.25
Cancer: average annual age-standardised death rates, 2000-2002
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
250.0
221
215 217 221
200.0
166
150.0
132
143
185 189 191 191
179 179 179 184
171 173 175 176 177
164 167
163
157
151 155 155
100.0
50.0
0.0
An
ni
es
la
nd
/B
e
Sc
ot
la
Ea nd
ar
st
sd
w
en
oo
/M
d
iln
g
Ea
av
ie
st
So Kilb
rid
ut
h
Ay e
r
St shir
ra
e
th
ke
lv
C
in
ly
de
N
sd
or
al
th
Ay e
rs
Ea
hi
st
r
Ay e
r
C
um shir
e
be
rn
au
So
ld
ut
Pa
L
h
is
Ea om
le
on
y
s
t
an
d
G
d
l
L e asg
ow
ve
rn
Va
R
en
lle
y
fr e Gr e
H
am
at
w
er
&
i
l
to
Sh
W
C
n
es
aw
am
la
bu t R
n
e
sl
an nfre ds
g
w
sh
&
R
ire
ut
he
rg
l
e
In
ve n
rc
ly
M
de
G
la
ot
sg
h
ow erw
el
W
C
es l
ly
de
tE
ba
nd
nk
W
&
is
ha
D
Ai
ru
rd
w
m
rie
ch
&
a
pe
C
oa
l
Ea
M
tb
st
ar
rid
So
er
yh
ge
n
ut
ill/
G
h
W
l
oo We asg
ow
st
ds
G
i
de
Br
la
sg
id
&
ge
ow
N
to
G
n
la
sg
&
D
o
w
en
ni
st
ou
n
Age standardised rates per 100,000 population
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from GRO(S) data)
Community
Figure 11.26
Cancer: average annual age-standardised death rates,
Greater Glasgow communities, 1991/93 - 2000/02
Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop
Source: NHSHS Community Profiles (from GRO(S) data)
300.0
Bridgeton & Dennistoun
250.0
Maryhill/Woodside & N
Glasgow
South West Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Clydebank & Drumchapel
200.0
Glasgow West End
Cambuslang & Rutherglen
150.0
Greater Shawlands
South East Glasgow
100.0
Scotland
Strathkelvin
50.0
Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie
Eastwood
0.0
1991 - 1993
1994 - 1996
1997 - 1999
2000 - 2002
300
Focussing on one of the most common forms of cancer, the final two Figures in this
section show long-term trends in lung cancer mortality. Figure 11.27 presents agestandardised rates for males aged 15-74, and Figure 11.28 presents the equivalent
figure for females.
Figure 11.27
Lung cancer: age standardised death rates, males (15-74)
Greater Glasgow and Scotland, 1976-2001
Source: GRO(S)
200
Rate per 100,00 population per year
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Greater Glasgow
Scotland
Figure 11.28
Lung cancer: age standardised death rates, females (15-74)
Greater Glasgow and Scotland, 1976-2001
Source: GRO(S)
80
Rate per 100,00 population per year
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Greater Glasgow
Scotland
301
These Figures show two contrasting patterns. Although in both cases the rates for
Greater Glasgow are well in excess of the national figures (and in fact are the highest
of all the health board areas) the rates for males have been falling over the whole
period, whereas the trend for females has seen a consistent rise, with a fall in rates
only visible over the last four years. This reflects the fact that, historically, women in
Scotland started smoking later than men, and it is hoped that this decline in mortality
rates will now continue, and a similar pattern to that seen for males will emerge.
11.5 Premature mortality
This final section of the chapter looks briefly at premature mortality in Scotland and
some of the West of Scotland communities. For the purposes of simplicity, premature
mortality is defined simply as deaths under the age of 65. Clearly, to examine this
issue in more detail, a more sophisticated definition would be required. However, for
the overview presented here, our simpler definition suffices.
Examination of premature mortality for the years 2001-2003 shows that:
x
More than one fifth (21%) of all deaths in Scotland occur under the age of 65.
x
For males the figure is yet more striking: more than a quarter of males die before
their 65th birthday (27%). For females the figure is 15%.
x
Across Greater Glasgow and the West of Scotland, the overall figures are very
similar to those for the country as a whole. However, this masks considerable
variation across the communities of the West of Scotland. For example, in
Bridgeton & Dennistoun one third of all deaths occur in people under-65, and for
males that figure rises to 42% (the figure for females is 20%). In contrast, only
15% of all deaths in the more affluent Eastwood community were in people under
65 (19.5% of male deaths, 12% of females). This is illustrated in Figure 11.29vii .
vii
Note that these proportions do not take account of the age structure of the population, and thus could
be influenced by higher than average under-65 populations in any of the communities.
302
Figure 11.29
Percentage of all male and female deaths under the age of 65, 2001-2003
West of Scotland and Greater Glasgow communities
50.0
45.0
44
40.0
Male
35
35.0
33
33
33
33
32
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
29
29
28
28
24
19
20
19
16
15
17
19
15
18
18
15
15
12
13
17
16
18
27
26
26
26
24
22
19
15
15
13
15
12
Female
20
17
12
10.0
5.0
0.0
M
Br
ar
yh idge
ill/
to
W
n
&
oo
D
ds
en
C
id
ni
ly
de e &
st
ou
ba
N
n
nk
G
la
&
sg
D
ow
ru
m
ch
ap
So
In
el
ut
ve
h
rc
Ea
ly
st
de
Ea
G
la
st
sg
er
ow
n
G
la
sg
ow
Lo
m
on
d
Pa
W
is
is
le
ha
y
M
w
an
ot
d
he
Le
rw
ve
el
l
rn
Va
So C u
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m
ut
y
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h
r
W
es nau
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ld
t
la
sg Gla
sg
ow
o
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w
W
re
es
at
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t
Ai
Sh End
rd
aw
rie
la
&
n
C
oa ds
tb
R
r
i
d
en
ge
fre
H
a
w
N
&
or milt
on
t
W
es h A
yr
tR
en shir
e
fr e
w
St shir
ra
e
th
Ea kelv
in
st
K
Ea ilbr
id
st
C
Ay e
am
rs
bu
hi
C
sl
re
ly
an
de
g
sd
&
al
R
e
ut
An
So her
gl
ni
ut
e
es
h
Ay n
la
nd
rs
/B
h
ea
Ea ire
rs
de stw
oo
n/
d
M
iln
ga
vi
e
% of all deaths which were premature (<65)
Source: NHSHS (from GRO(S) data)
Community
This begs the question as to whether the causes of premature death are different from
the causes of death for all ages. An analysis of the ten most commonly occurring
single causes of death between 2001 and 2003 shows the following:
x
In Scotland, the ten most common causes of death for the total population all
relate to the three main ‘killers’ (heart disease, cancer, stroke) as well as diseases
such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (not shown). In Greater Glasgow,
the picture is similar, but with one important difference: the seventh most
commonly recorded principal cause of death in the period was alcoholic liver
disease (2.7% of all deaths, numbering 860 over four years).
x
However, the picture for the ten most common reasons for premature mortality
(<65) is different. Figure 11.30 shows this for all Scotland (note that alcohol
related conditions are now more prominent), while Figure 11.31 shows the same
breakdown for Greater Glasgow: this shows that the single most common reason
for premature death between 2001 and 2003 was alcoholic liver disease (9% of all
premature deaths; 674 over the four-year period).
303
10
Figure 11.30
10 Most frequently occurring principal causes of death, 2001-2003,
Age <65, Scotland
Source: GRO(S)
Acute myocardial infarction
8.5
Malignant neoplasm of bronchus and lung
7.9
Chronic ischaemic heart disease
6.6
Alcoholic liver disease
6.1
Malignant neoplasm of breast
3.6
Other chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease
2.5
Mental and behavioural disorders due to
use of alcohol
2.3
Intent self-harm by hanging strangulation
and suffocation
2.3
Malignant neoplasm of oesophagus
1.7
Malignant neoplasm without specification
of site
1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
% of all deaths under 65
Figure 11.31
10 Most frequently occurring principal causes of death, 2001-2003,
Age <65, Greater Glasgow
Source: GRO(S)
Alcoholic liver disease
9.0
Malignant neoplasm of bronchus and lung
8.1
Acute myocardial infarction
7.8
Chronic ischaemic heart disease
6.9
Other chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease
3.1
Malignant neoplasm of breast
2.7
Mental and behavioural disorders due to
use of opioids
2.4
Mental and behavioural disorders due to
use of alcohol
2.2
Intent self-harm by hanging strangulation
and suffocation
2.1
Pneumonia, organism unspecified
1.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
% of all deaths under 65
304
x
Considerable differences in causes of premature mortality can be seen across the
different West of Scotland communities. Figures 11.32 and 11.33 show the most
frequently occurring causes of premature death in Eastwood (an area with one of
the lowest proportions of premature deaths) and Bridgeton & Dennistoun (the area
with the highest). Although in the former area, alcoholic liver disease does feature,
the total number of premature deaths is so small in this area that, in fact, this only
equates to around 20 deaths over three years. In contrast, by far the most common
cause of premature mortality in Bridgeton & Dennistoun was alcoholic liver
disease (14% of all premature deaths, and equating to 90 deaths over the period),
while alcohol and drugs also feature prominently. viii
Figure 11.32
10 Most frequently occurring principal causes of death, 2001-2003,
Age <65, Eastwood
Source: GRO(S)
Malignant neoplasm of breast
8.6
Malignant neoplasm of bronchus and lung
7.2
Alcoholic liver disease
6.9
Acute myocardial infarction
6.9
Chronic ischaemic heart disease
6.6
Malignant neoplasm of colon
3.0
Subarachnoid haemorrhage
2.3
Mental and behavioural disorders due to
use of opioids
2.3
Malignant neoplasm of brain
2.3
Malignant neoplasm of oesophagus
2.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
% of all deaths under 65
viii
It should be noted that a number of homeless hostels have operated in the Bridgeton & Dennistoun
area in the time period covered. However, a separate analysis was run excluding, where possible, all
deaths in known hostels and although this reduced the total number of deaths slightly, it did not alter
the overall pattern presented in Figure 11.33.
305
Figure 11.33
10 Most frequently occurring principal causes of death, 2001-2003,
Age <65, Bridgeton & Dennistoun
Source: NHSHS (from GRO(S) data)
Alcoholic liver disease
13.6
Acute myocardial infarction
7.7
Chronic ischaemic heart disease
7.1
Malignant neoplasm of bronchus and lung
5.1
Mental and behavioural disorders due to
use of opioids
3.8
Other chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease
3.3
Mental and behavioural disorders due to
use of alcohol
3.3
Pneumonia, organism unspecified
2.0
Mental & behav'l disorders due
multiple/psychoact drug use
2.0
Malignant neoplasm without specification
of site
1.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
% of all deaths under 65
The considered wisdom in relation to mortality and deprivation in Scotland is that
people in deprived areas die of the same things as people in more affluent areas, only
they do so a number of years earlier 5 . This may be true when looking at very broad
categories of disease; however, it is not borne out by examination of individual causes
of death. There are important differences in the causes of premature deaths compared
to all deaths, with the influence of suicide, drugs and, especially, alcohol much more
prominent. Premature mortality, and therefore, these types of cause of death, is much
more common in deprived areas.
306
Summary
This chapter has highlighted a number of important points with regard to illness and
disease in the West of Scotland (with a particular emphasis on Greater Glasgow):
x
Estimates of primary care-based disease prevalence, although limited and with
significant caveats, provide us with an overview of the total numbers of the
Greater Glasgow population affected by particular conditions. They also confirm
the higher levels of these conditions in more deprived areas.
x
Important types of hospital admission, such as diabetes, have been increasing
significantly. The levels, and variations in levels, of admission to hospital as a
result of deliberate self harm are also striking, as is the long term trend in suicides
among men.
x
Better news is provided by the decrease in road accident casualties and,
particularly, the decline in rates of death from heart disease and stroke. However,
the gaps that have emerged between Greater Glasgow and the rest of the country
in mortality rates for the latter two causes, and for suicides, are of concern.
x
The West of Scotland’s relatively poor levels of life expectancy are reflected in
the fact that around one fifth of the population die before their 65th birthday. The
figures for male deaths are of greatest concern: a quarter of male deaths are
premature, rising to over 40% in Bridgeton & Dennistoun, and over a third in
other deprived areas.
x
Finally, the influence of alcohol as a cause of premature mortality is further
evidence of the worrying trend in alcohol related harm discussed in Chapter 7:
Behaviour.
307
References
1
The NHS Confederation, British Medical Association. New GMS Contract:
February 2003 – Investing in General Practice. 2003
http://www.bma.org.uk/ap.nsf/Content/investinggp
2
McLoone P. Increasing mortality among adults in Scotland 1981 to 1999. European
Journal Of Public Health 2003; 13: 230-234
3
NHS Health Scotland. Constituency Health and Well-being Profiles 2004
http://www.scotpho.org.uk/constituencyprofiles
4
Scottish Executive. Health in Scotland 2002. Edinburgh: The Stationery Office,
2003
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2003/06/17181/22128
5
Chalmers J, Capewell S. Deprivation, disease and death in Scotland: graphical
display of survival of a cohort. BMJ 2001; 323: 967-968
308
Chapter 12: Past and future trends
“While parts of Glasgow have prospered with greater employment and
better paid middle-class jobs, in other parts ‘worklessness’ and low
income are commonplace.”
“The issue for Glasgow is that greater reductions in disease have been
achieved elsewhere and so Glasgow’s health has become worse relatively
in comparison to other UK cities.”
“Estimates of life expectancy suggest that Glaswegians not only live
shorter lives, but succumb to disease and illness earlier in life.”
“The increasing impact of alcohol is undeniable: simple projections of
alcohol related deaths based on recent trends suggest that the number of
alcohol related deaths in Greater Glasgow could double in the next twenty
years.”
“Addressing and reducing health-damaging behaviours will remain a
major challenge.”
Guide to data presented in this chapter
% o f de pen de n t c h ild re n liv in g in h o u s eh o ld s wh e re n o- on e is in em p lo ym en t; 2001;
We s t of S c ot lan d an d Glas gow c om m u n it ies
S ource: NHS HS C om m unity P rofiles (from 2001 Cens us data)
All the charts which present data at a ‘community’, or postcode
sector level, employ the following colour scheme:
communities/sectors within Greater Glasgow are shaded dark
red; other West of Scotland areas are shaded light blue. Where
possible, the same colour scheme has been incorporated into
other charts employing different geographical breakdowns
(e.g. in charts by council area, Glasgow City is shaded dark red;
the other West of Scotland council areas are coloured light blue).
See Preface to Chapters 2-12 for more details.
60
50
50
47
37
40
33
28
30
20
18
11
10
6
12
14
16
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
23
7
0
Co m m u n it y
23
23
24
24
29
33
33
Chapter 12: Past and future trends
In preceding chapters, past and future trends for a number of demographic, economic
and health indicators have been described. In this chapter, we aim to synthesise these
observations in order to demonstrate important linkages, for instance between the
economy and health, to show where current trends may lead and to highlight major
issues requiring action.
In terms of population changes there are a number of trends which have exerted
important influences on the city and surrounding areas:
x
x
x
x
Since the mid-1970s the death rate in the city has exceeded the birth rate. Without
a rise in the birth rate or inward migration, Glasgow’s population is likely to drop
further;
Glasgow’s ethnic minority population has risen in recent years (to 5.5% in 2001)
and looks set to increase further, particularly taking into account the recent rise in
the asylum seeker and refugee population;
Glasgow has a low dependency ratio – the ratio of the young and old to the
working age population – in comparison to other West of Scotland councils and to
Scotland and is predicted to retain this relatively low ratio until at least 2024. In
comparison, the dependency ratio for every other West of Scotland council is
predicted to rise as populations grow older;
While populations in most areas will fall, household numbers are predicted to rise.
In Glasgow, it is predicted single adults will account for 49% of all households in
the next ten years, while lone parent households may rise to make up almost one
in two of households with children.
Demographic changes have already driven service changes. For example, the drop in
the school age population has led to amalgamations of schools across Glasgow.
However, it is in the working age population that the health of Glasgow as a city and
the overall health of its population will be determined. Glasgow’s current low
dependency ratio gives the city, theoretically, a healthy economic employment base.
However, this does not take account of people of working age who are not working or
are unable to work due to incapacity, of which Glasgow has a high proportion.
A number of trends related to the economy are also notable:
x
x
x
x
x
There are now more women than men in employment in Glasgow and part-time
work has grown to represent more than a quarter of all jobs;
The service sector has grown to become the most important sector of Glasgow’s
economy, while manufacturing employment has shrunk;
One of the results of these changes is that the proportion of middle class jobs in
Glasgow has doubled over a twenty year period;
Income for those in work has risen in recent years, both nationally and in
Glasgow;
There has been an overall trend towards greater numbers of households with
access to a car.
311
However these overall changes do not tell the whole story. Among those in
employment, income inequalities have widened in recent years with those in the best
paid occupations having gained more, relatively, and far more, absolutely, in terms of
pay. In Glasgow, 85,000 people (19% of the Scottish total) are without work due to
unemployment, illness or disability and 28% of the city’s population (over 160,000
people) is defined as living in income deprivation. Although there are no trends for
these measures, it seems unlikely that either of these figures has changed significantly
in recent years.
In addition, house prices have risen hugely in the last ten years, and in Glasgow
average house prices have caught up with the Scottish average. However, prices have
now reached a level in many areas where affordability has become a very real issue,
especially for those on lower incomes.
Participation in higher education, a marker for future employability in the knowledge
economy, has risen, but only modestly in recent years. The proportions of young
people from deprived areas reaching university has increased, but there has not been
an appreciable narrowing of the gap in participation rates between affluent and
deprived communities.
In summary, while parts of Glasgow have prospered with greater employment and
better-paid middle-class jobs, in other parts ‘worklessness’ and low income are
commonplace.
Turning to health, despite Glasgow’s current poor position relative to other parts of
Scotland and the UK, there have been successes. Infant mortality has reduced
dramatically – perhaps to a level where further significant reductions may be much
harder to achieve – and overall mortality, and that related to specific chronic diseases
(heart disease, stroke and cancer), has fallen. The issue for Glasgow is that greater
reductions have been achieved elsewhere and so Glasgow’s health has become
relatively worse in comparison to other UK cities.
Estimates of life expectancy suggest that Glaswegians not only live shorter lives, but
also succumb to disease and illness earlier in life. Future trends are difficult to predict.
However, a simple linear extrapolation of current life expectancy trends in the West
of Scotland suggests that, while life expectancy for both men and women will
increase, the increases will be greater in the more affluent areas of East
Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire compared to Glasgow. Figure 12.1 shows that
the gap in male life expectancy across West of Scotland councils, which was eight
years in 2001-03, is forecast to widen to ten years by 2011-13.
312
Figure 12.1
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (years); West of Scotland Council Areas vs Scotland;
Trend: 1991-1993 to 2001-2003; Projections: 2002-2004 to 2011-2013
Source: Office for National Statistics & Health Scotland
82.0
80.2
80.0
Life Expectancy at birth
78.0
77.2
75.6
76.0
73.5
74.0
72.0
70.2
70.0
69.1
68.0
66.0
1991- 1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 20111993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Council
Scotland
Glasgow City
East Dunbartonshire
Trends in health behaviour will have an impact on future disease and mortality
levels. Smoking levels, while still high, have reduced in recent years and may drop
further depending on the success of the imminent legislation to control smoking in
public places together with other local strategies. However, other behavioural trends
are less promising. Obesity levels have risen to the extent that in Greater Glasgow a
fifth of males and almost a quarter of females are now estimated to be obese, with
well over half classified as overweight. Trends in hospitalisation for diabetes, much of
which is associated with obesity, have risen dramatically in recent years.
Another major concern relates to alcohol. While accurate information on consumption
is difficult to obtain, the increasing impact of alcohol is undeniable. There are
estimated to be more than 13,500 ‘problem alcohol users’ resident within Glasgow
City, and since the beginning of the 1990s, there has been a striking increase in
numbers of alcohol related deaths and hospitalisations within both Scotland and the
Greater Glasgow area. Simple projections of alcohol related deaths based on recent
trends suggest that the number of alcohol related deaths in Greater Glasgow could
double in the next twenty years (Figure 12.2).
313
Figure 12.2
Alcohol related mortality, Greater Glasgow: deaths 1980-2003 and projections 20042027
Source: GROS/NHSHS
Total number of deaths/predicted deaths
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
18
20
20
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
06
20
08
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
84
19
86
19
82
19
80
0
The impact of illicit drugs should not be overlooked either. Between 1996 and 2004,
drug related deaths in Greater Glasgow rose by a third. There are estimated to be
around 25,000 problem drug users in the West of Scotland, of whom more than
11,000 live in Glasgow.
Two other sets of trends are also worthy of consideration. The physical environment
chapter showed that despite improvements in overall house conditions and dramatic
decreases in levels of overcrowding, housing-related problems persist for considerable
numbers of residents of Greater Glasgow and the West of Scotland. Furthermore, the
arguably unsustainable predicted rise in traffic volume clearly merits consideration in
any future plan for the city.
Finally, children are the future of any city. Thus, the relatively high number of
children being brought up in potentially problematic environments (e.g. as children of
substance misusers, in care, in workless households) is a concern, as are the worrying
levels of childhood obesity, poor dental health and potentially harmful behaviours
(smoking, drinking, drug taking) that have also been presented in this report.
The evidence from this overview is that future demographic and health-related trends
for Glasgow are likely to be challenging. Also, the health of Glasgow’s economy is
vital to the health of Glasgow. Efforts to raise income levels among those on the
lowest incomes, to reduce the city’s ‘workless’ population and to improve skills and
education levels could be protective for health, and help prevent further widening of
health inequalities. Addressing and reducing health-damaging behaviours will remain
a major challenge.
314
Chapter 13: Summary and discussion
Chapter 13: Summary
This final section of the report summarises the main themes that have emerged from
the preceding chapters. An accompanying discussion paper will be published to
encourage consideration of the implications of these findings for national and local
policy and practice. The key question in this regard is whether current approaches
will manage to address the challenges highlighted and sustain the improvements
achieved. If not, what other approaches need to be considered?
13.1 Summary of report
Summary of Chapters 2-12
The historical analysis of Glasgow highlighted the extraordinary growth, and recent
decline, in the size of the city’s population; the declining birth and death rates; the
huge advances in public health (illustrated by the fall in infant mortality and
improvements in life expectancy); and the persistence of health inequalities across the
city.
Glasgow’s current population is characterised by a comparatively high proportion of
working age adults, and much higher levels of pensionable women compared to men.
Future trends show a further decline in the population as a whole but increases in the
overall numbers of households, and especially single adult and lone parent
households. For example, in ten years’ time the latter are expected to make up half of
all the households with children in Glasgow.
Life expectancy in Glasgow currently stands at 69 years for males and 76 for
females, but huge variation exists across different areas (e.g. for males, a fifteen year
gap between communities in Greater Glasgow). The gap in life expectancy between
the least and most affluent parts of Glasgow has widened noticeably over the last 20
years.
The economy of Glasgow has changed considerably in recent times. It is now one
dominated by the service sector, employing more women than men, and where the
proportion of ‘middle class’ jobs has doubled in 20 years. Although unemployment
levels have decreased, 30% of the working age population are economically inactive,
and almost the same proportion of the total population lives in ‘income deprivation’.
Income inequalities are increasing.
The analysis of issues relating to the social environment has shown that Glasgow is a
city where deprivation/affluence clearly matters, whether it is in relation to
educational attainment, the chances of being a lone parent, or likelihood of being
affected by crime. And, while for some measures of social capital Glasgow’s profile
is quite positive (e.g. in terms of trust, low levels of isolation, high levels of
satisfaction with the local area), other measures, particularly levels of violent crime,
domestic abuse and imprisonment, highlight issues of major concern that require
concerted attention.
317
Examination of the physical environment of Greater Glasgow and the West of
Scotland has shown that despite improvements in overall housing conditions and
dramatic decreases in levels of overcrowding, housing-related problems persist for
many people. Other environmental concerns include the arguably unsustainable
predicted rise in traffic volume, and a number of issues around ‘environmental
justice’.
Behavioural factors of concern include the worrying rise in levels of alcohol related
harm, obesity, sexually transmitted infections, and drug related deaths. In contrast, the
prevalence of cigarette smoking is falling, although inequalities in prevalence persist
and are a major cause of the inequalities in life expectancy seen across Greater
Glasgow.
An examination of issues around pregnancy and childbirth shows that despite recent
improvements, Glasgow still has relatively high rates of teenage pregnancies and of
smoking in pregnancy, and low rates of breastfeeding. Deprivation has a notable
negative impact on all of the above, and is also associated with much younger ages of
first-time mothers.
The relatively high number of children being brought up in potentially problematic
environments (e.g. as children of substance misusers, in care, in workless households)
is a concern. Worrying levels of childhood obesity, poor dental health and potentially
harmful behaviours are also issues that require a clear strategic response.
Analysis of indicators relevant to health and function emphasises the high levels of
ill-health and disability in Glasgow and the West of Scotland. For example, one in
four of the population of Greater Glasgow suffers from a long-term limiting illness.
This clearly has a major impact on the area’s economy: just under one fifth of the
working age population of Greater Glasgow are classified as unable to work due to
illness or disability. The relationships between health and employment are
increasingly being recognised: health improvement will be an important cornerstone
for future economic development.
Finally, an analysis of some specific aspects of illness and disease highlights further
areas of concern: for example, upward trends in diabetes and suicide; levels of
deliberate self-harm; the impact of alcohol on premature mortality. Better news is
evident in the decrease in road accident casualties and falling rates of deaths from
heart disease and stroke – although the latter is tempered by the fact that in Greater
Glasgow the rates of decrease in both have not matched those of the rest of the
country, resulting in an emergent gap between Glasgow and elsewhere.
318
Overall, what does this report tells us?
The data presented in this report confirm that Glasgow has undergone significant
change over the last 20-30 years. As recently as the 1970s Glasgow was an industrial
and manufacturing city. The economic depression of that period destroyed many of
these jobs and it has taken time for the city’s economy to recover. The social class and
employment profiles of the city’s population have changed significantly since then.
Economic regeneration has been accompanied by physical regeneration, at least for
many parts of the city. Glasgow is now a predominantly ‘middle class’ city with a
strong emphasis on service industries and consumerism. While all this has been
happening, improvements have been seen in overall life expectancy and in falling
death rates from major diseases like heart disease and cancer. This transformation has
not happened by accident. Much of it reflects the successful policy initiatives
implemented by the city’s leaders over these decades.
Yet, despite this progress many intractable problems remain and some new problems
have arisen. Chief amongst these are:
1. marked inequalities between the most advantaged and least advantaged areas;
2. high levels of worklessness caused in no small measure by high levels of
invalidity;
3. rising epidemics of obesity, alcohol related harm, health problems related to
drug addiction, some mental health problems and sexually transmitted
infections.
This is the central paradox. Glasgow is a city that has undergone profound change and
considerable regeneration – but commensurate improvements in its health have not
yet followed. And although these health problems are not unique to Glasgow, this
report has shown that they are particularly profound and seemingly resistant to change
in this part of the country, especially in less affluent communities.
There will be no simple solutions to the problems faced by Glasgow. Certainly, there
will be no single initiative that will turn round such a complex set of problems with
such deep roots in history. One of the key messages of this report is that for health to
improve a large number of the determinants of health will have to be changed. Our
response to Glasgow’s health problems needs to take account of all the data in this
report and the many insights yielded. The response will have to come from
individuals, organisations, communities and government. It will require a willingness
to learn from past approaches, to reflect honestly on the implications of current trends,
and to be open to different ways forward. An initial discussion of the range of
possible approaches to addressing the issues highlighted in this report is being
prepared as an accompanying discussion document to be published by the Glasgow
Centre for Population Health.
In moving from analysis to action, the next challenge is to engage as wide a
constituency as possible in debating this report and in using these data to inform their
work and their lives. If you would like to contribute to this process please visit
www.gcph.co.uk/involved.htm. In addition comments may be submitted by email to
[email protected] or by post to the Glasgow Centre for Population
Health, Level 6, 39 St Vincent Place, Glasgow G1 2ER.
319
Appendix 1: Definitions and sources
Appendix 1: Definitions and sources
This Table includes definitions, notes and sources for each Table and Figure presented in the report. With some
exceptions, the Table does not include details of time period, or geography at which the data is presented as
these are displayed in each chart’s title.
In some cases ‘source’ indicates the source of original raw data sets, which were then manipulated by NHS
Health Scotland to provide required measures (e.g. standardised rates).
Figure
No.
2.1
Description/Notes
Source
Glasgow’s population, 1801-2004.
Reports of Medical
Officer of Health,
Glasgow (1898,
1925,1926,1972);
Registrar General of
Scotland's Annual
Reports (1973-2004)
“”
“”
“”
Report of Medical
Officer of Health,
Glasgow (1901)
Reports of Medical
Officer of Health,
Glasgow (1898,
1925,1926,1972);
Registrar General of
Scotland's Annual
Reports (1973-2004)
Report of Medical
Officer of Health,
Glasgow (1901)
“”
“”
“”
Report of the Medical
Officer of Health,
Glasgow, 1925 (p34)
Report of the Medical
Officer of Health,
Glasgow, 1925
(p190); original
source 1921 Census
Report of the Medical
Officer of Health,
Glasgow, 1925;
Office for National
Statistics, 2004
It is worth noting that the boundaries of Glasgow were extended on
numerous occasions over the period covered. From 1996 onward, the
population figures are for Glasgow City Council.
2.2
2.3
2.4
Table
2.1
Births and births per 1,000 population in Glasgow; 1855-2004.
Deaths and deaths per 1,000 population in Glasgow; 1855-2004.
Infant deaths (under one year) per 1,000 live births in Glasgow; 1855-2004.
Infant mortality and mortality from all causes for Glasgow and four other
UK cities, 1901.
2.5
Death and birth rates per 1,000 population in Glasgow; 1855-2004.
2.6
Population density in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts, 1901.
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.10
Birth rates in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts, 1901.
Infant death rates in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts, 1901.
Death rates in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts, 1901.
Expected future years of life at ten by size of house and by gender for
Glasgow. Calculated on the basis of 1911 Census and deaths between Oct
1909 and Sept 1912.
Overcrowding in Glasgow in 1921 - percentage of occupants living more
than three per room of all occupants by size of house.
2.11
2.12
Expected future years of life at birth by gender for Glasgow; 1821-27 to
2001-03.
3.1 –
3.3
Population density (persons per sq. km), male population age structure and
female population age structure for West of Scotland council areas. Age
categories shown are: ‘Under 16’: 0-15; ‘working age’: 16-64 years for men
and 16-59 years for women; ‘pensionable age’: 65 years and older for men
and 60 years and older for women.
Population under 16 years. Includes those resident in communal
establishments and asylum seekers.
3.4 –
3.5
General Register
Office for Scotland
(GRO(S))
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from 2001
Census data)
i
Figure
No.
3.6 –
3.7
3.8 –
3.9
3.103.12
Description/Notes
Table
3.1
3.13 –
3.15
3.16
Components of population change (births, deaths, natural change and
migration), 1994-2004.
2004 based population projections for period 2004-2024.
3.173.20
3.21 –
3.22
3.23 –
3.24
3.25
3.26 –
3.27
3.28 –
3.29
3.30
3.31 –
3.34
3.35 –
3.36
3.37
3.38 –
3.39
Population 16-64 years. Includes those resident in communal establishments
and asylum seekers.
Population 65 years and over. Includes those resident in communal
establishments and asylum seekers.
Population dependency ratios. Definition applied: 100 x (‘Population under
16 years’ + ‘Population of 65 years or more’) / ‘Population aged 16-64’.
Projection of dependency ratios for period 2004-2024. Dependency ratios
definition (as above). Projections based on 2004 population projections.
2002 based household projections for period 2002-2016. Projected trends in
overall households and mix of households (one adult; two or more adults;
two or more adults and one or more children; one adult with children).
Ethnic Minority: percentage of population from a minority ethnic group includes Black Caribbean, Black African, Black Other, Indian, Pakistani,
Bangladeshi, Chinese, Asian Other, “other” minority ethnic groups.
Births: birth rates per 100 females aged 15-44 years.
Infant deaths: deaths within the first year of life shown as number (totalled
over five-year period) and rate per 1,000 live births in the period. Data at
community level exclude deaths that had been assigned the postcode of a
hospital.
Deaths: average annual all-cause deaths expressed as number and directly
age-standardised rate per 100,000 population. Deaths at all ages included.
Excludes non-Scottish residents. Standardisation carried out using WHO
standard world population.
Deaths: age-standardised rates among men and women aged 15-74 years.
Standardisation carried out using European standard world population.
Definitions (including ICD codes) and methodology match those specified
in: Leon, D. Scotland’s health in an international context. Public Health
Institute of Scotland, 2003
(http://www.phis.org.uk/projects/network.asp?p=ff).
Deaths: average annual all-cause deaths expressed as number and directly
age-standardised rate per 100,000 population. Deaths at all ages included.
Excludes non-Scottish residents. Standardisation carried out using WHO
standard world population.
Male and female life expectancy at birth in years.
Male life expectancy at birth in years. Calculated applying Chiang (II)
methodology as devised at ONS 2003
(http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=10622),
using GRO death registrations for 1998-2002 [excluding non-Scottish
residents] and 2001 census populations [including those persons living in
communal establishments].
Proportion of 15 year olds boys surviving to 65 of age. Derived from the life
table used for life expectancy calculation (see notes for ‘Life expectancy’
above).
Female life expectancy at birth in years. Calculated applying Chiang (II)
methodology as devised at ONS 2003
(http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=10622),
using GRO death registrations for 1998-2002 [excluding non-Scottish
residents] and 2001 census populations [including those persons living in
communal establishments].
Source
“”
“”
GRO(S); NHSHS
Community Profiles
(from 2001 Census
data)
GRO(S)
“”
“”
“”
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from 2001
Census data)
“”
“”
“”
GRO(S)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from 2001
Census data)
Office for National
Statistics (ONS)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from 2001
Census data)
“”
“”
ii
Figure
No.
3. 40
3.41 –
3.42
3.43 –
3.44
4.1
Table
4.1
4.2
4.3 –
4.4
4.5 –
4.6
4.7
4.8 –
4.9
4.10 –
4.11
Description/Notes
Proportion of 15 year olds girls surviving to 65 years of age. Derived from
the life table used for life expectancy calculation (see notes for ‘Life
expectancy’ above).
Estimates of male and female life expectancy at birth by deprivation: least
and most deprived Carstairs quintiles compared between 1981/85 1998/2002 (areas fixed to their deprivation quintile in 1981).
Estimated healthy life expectancy at birth (for males and females) and years
of life with a limiting long-term illness. See ISD web-site (Healthy life
expectancy in Scotland:
http://www.isdscotland.org/isd/info3.jsp?pContentID=2860&p_applic=CCC
&p_) for details of methodology.
Source
“”
GRO(S); Census
(1981, 1991, 2001)
ISD (from Census
and GROS data)
Employees by industry. All figures rounded to nearest 100. ABI excludes
self-employed, the armed forces and diplomatic and domestic services.
Employees assigned to area in which business is based. Further information
on ABI data available from NOMIS website: http://www.nomisweb.co.uk.
Employment in Glasgow by occupation.
NHSHS Constituency
Profiles (from ABI
data)
Unemployment ‘Claimant count’: expressed as a percentage of the working
age population.
Unemployment ‘Claimant count’: an annual average expressed as a
percentage of the working age population.
NOMIS
Economically inactive: as a percentage of people aged 16-74. Includes:
Retired, Student (excludes those students who were working or in some other
way were economically active), Looking after family/ home, Permanently
sick/ disabled and Other. A person who is looking for work but is not
available to start work within two weeks is counted as Economically
Inactive.
Economically inactive: as a percentage of working age people (i.e. males 1664 years and females 16-59 years).
Employment deprivation: percentage of working age population who are
employment deprived. Defined as the percentage of the working age
population (16-64 for men and 16-59 for women) who are on the
unemployment claimant count, are in receipt of Incapacity Benefit or Severe
Disablement Allowance or are Compulsory New Deal participants (New
Deal for the under 25s and New Deal for the 25+ not included in the
unemployment claimant count). The benefits data are provided by the
Department for Work and Pensions and the claimant count data are supplied
by ONS. For more details please refer to the Scottish Index of Multiple
Deprivation (SIMD): http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/simd2004/.
Gross Weekly Pay: mean gross weekly pay for all employees. Figure 4.10
shows pay estimates by employees’ place of residence, while the pay
comparison estimates in Figure 4.11 are based on pay by employees’ place of
work. The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) is a new survey
developed to replace the New Earnings Survey (NES) from 2004. ONS have
suggested that, although small discontinuities in trends may occur because of
the change over between the surveys, overall trends are relatively robust.
SLIMS/RF
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from
NOMIS data)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from Census
data)
Annual Scottish
Labour Force Survey
Scottish
Neighbourhood
Statistics (SNS)
(from SIMD)
ONS
(from Annual Survey
of Hours and
Earnings)
More information available from Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
(ASHE):
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=13101&Pos=4&Col
Rank=1&Rank=160.
iii
Figure
No.
4.12 –
4.13
4.14 –
4.15
4.16 –
4.17
4.18 –
4.19
Description/Notes
Source
Average annual gross household income (£). Household income estimates
provided to Communities Scotland taken from CACI PayCheck, a
commercial dataset to which Communities Scotland subscribe. This is a
point-based dataset that uses postcodes as the basis for estimating household
incomes. This dataset is derived from a household income model, and
provides an estimate of income for every postcode in the UK. PayCheck
models gross income before tax and is intended to cover income from every
source including income support and welfare. PayCheck is a result of a
modelling process that uses lifestyle data (as the main input), 1991 Census
data, CACI population estimates, ACORN, and market research data.
Lifestyle data is based upon many sources, including questionnaires returned
with guarantee cards for electrical goods and direct mailings. Data are
collected about the individuals returning the form, about their households, as
well as details about purchasing habits, attitudes and behaviour. A high
proportion of these records contain a figure for annual household income,
which provides the baseline for PayCheck.
Income support claimants.
Income Support is a non-contributory, means tested benefit. To be eligible
to claim IS, claimants must satisfy several basic conditions of entitlement.
They must be age 16 or over and be resident in Great Britain but in some
cases, they may be eligible for IS during a temporary stay abroad if:
the absence is unlikely to last more than 12 months
they were entitled to IS immediately before leaving GB
they continue to satisfy the conditions of entitlement while they are abroad,
and not be doing paid work of on average 16 hours a week or more, or have a
partner who is doing paid work of on average 24 hours a week or more (but
there are exceptions to this rule). For more details contact DWP.
Income Deprivation: percentage of population who are income deprived.
Defined as adults and children living in households in receipt of Income
Support, Income Based Job Seekers Allowance, Working Families Tax
Credit below a low income threshold or Disability Tax Credit below a low
income threshold and is derived from data provided by the Department for
Work and Pensions and the Inland Revenue. For more details please refer to
the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD):
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/simd2004/.
Eligibility for free school meals: primary school pupils entitled to free school
meals as a percentage of all pupils.
Communities
Scotland (from
CACI)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from
Department for Work
and Pensions (DWP)
data)
Scottish
Neighbourhood
Statistics (SNS)
(from SIMD)
SE Education
Department
Data presented at small area level (Figure 4.19) are school-based data, with
the postcode sector of the primary school assigned a descriptive name from
the list used in the community profiles (see Appendix 2 for full list).
4.20 –
4.22
4.23 –
4.24
4.25
Annual average house sale prices. Derived from a point based SASINE
dataset of all housing transactions in Scotland. SASINE information is
supplied by both the General Register Office for Scotland and the Land
Valuation Information Unit at Paisley University. The database contains
information concerning house-sales in Scotland. Communities Scotland have
cleaned and geo-referenced the data for GIS use.
Households without access to a car: percentage of all households who do not
have access to a car or van.
Persons without access to a car: percentage of all persons in private
households who do not have access to a car or van.
Communities
Scotland (from
SASINE data);
Scottish
Neighbourhood
Statistics
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from Census
data)
ISD (from Census
data)
iv
Figure
No.
4.26 –
4.29
Table
4.2
5.1
5.2
5.3
Description/Notes
Source
Social grade: AB - higher and intermediate, managerial/ administrative
/professional; Social grade: E - on state benefit, unemployed, lowest grade
workers. Social Grade is the socio-economic classification used by the
Market Research and Marketing Industries. Although it is not possible to
allocate Social Grade precisely from information collected in the Census, the
Market Research Society has developed a method for using Census
information to provide a good approximation of Social Grade. Most output
by Social Grade will be for people aged 16 and over in households. They
will be classified by the Social Grade of their Household Reference Person
(HRP). For households where the HRP is aged less than 16 or over 74 the
Social Grade of people in the household will be determined by the household
tenure.
Social Class I and II: percentage of population from Social Class I
(Professional occupations) or II (Intermediate - most managerial and senior
administrative occupations).
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from Census
data)
Primary and secondary school pupils. All pupil figures quoted relate to
pupils in publicly funded schools in Scotland. Pupil figures by council relate
to pupils in schools within each council area rather than pupils’ council of
residence.
School pupils from ethnic minority groups: percentage. All pupil figures
quoted relate to pupils in publicly funded schools in Scotland. Pupil figures
by council relate to pupils in schools within each council area rather than
pupils’ council of residence.
Educational Qualifications – adults of working age with three or more
'Highers'; a degree; no qualifications.
Scottish Executive,
Pupils in Scotland
2004
5.4 -5.5
Adults with no qualifications: % of people aged 16-74 with no qualifications.
5.6
Participation in Higher Education: % of young (under 21) first-time entrants
to full-time first degree courses from state schools or colleges.
Participation in Higher Education: % of young (under 21) first-time entrants
to full-time first degree courses from 'low participation' neighbourhoods.
Low-participation neighbourhoods are defined as areas for which the
participation rate is less than two-thirds of the UK average rate.
Participation in Higher Education: estimated new student participation rates
in Higher Education. Calculated as young (under 21) first-time entrants to
full-time first degree courses divided by 17 year olds in the population in
2001 (from the Census). This is acknowledged to be a relatively imprecise
estimate, given that the denominator (numbers of 17 year olds) is not
precisely matched with the numerator in terms of time period or age range.
Lone parent households: calculated as lone parent households with
dependent children taken as a percentage of all households with dependent
children.
Lone pensioner households: as a percentage of all households.
5.7
5.8 –
5.10
5.115.12
5.135.14
5.155.24
5.25
Social Capital: various indicators of social capital measuring civic
engagement, reciprocity, trust, social networks, isolation, volunteering and
perception of local area derived from NHS Greater Glasgow’s Health &
Well-being Survey, 1999 & 2002.
Voter turnout: % turnout at 2003 Scottish Parliamentary Election.
J Arnott (from
Census data)
Scottish Executive,
Pupils in Scotland
2004
Scottish
Neighbourhood
Statistics
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from Census
data)
HESA, Performance
Indicators, 2003/03
HESA, Performance
Indicators, 2003/03
Derived from HESA
& Census data
Census
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from Census
data)
NHS Greater
Glasgow’s Health
and Well-being
Survey, 1999 & 2002
NHSHS Constituency
Profiles (from
Electoral
Commission data)
v
Figure
No.
5.26
Description/Notes
Source
Voter turnout and perception of the importance of voting.
SNS (from Scottish
Household Survey &
Electoral
Commission)
Parliamentary
Research Services;
BBC website;
Political Guide to
Modern Scotland
Scottish Executive
5.27
Voter turnout: percentage turnout.
Constituency boundaries changed several times over the period analysed, so
trends for Glasgow are approximate.
Table
5.1-5.2
Recorded crime levels for a range of crime types including non-sexual
crimes of violence, crimes of indecency, crimes of dishonesty, ‘fire raising,
vandalism, etc’, serious assaults, crimes involving offensive weapons and
domestic housebreaking, vandalism. Original source: Recorded Crime in
Scotland, 2004/05
(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/10/19155942/59484).
Index of overall crime rate.
Original source: Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2004/05
(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/10/1955942/59484).
Trends in crime: crimes include serious violent crime, domestic
housebreaking, ‘fire raising, vandalism, etc’ and drug related crime.
Crime patterns within Glasgow The data used in this analysis were provided
from the Strathclyde Police Corporate Database for the fiscal year 2004/05
and only cover the Glasgow City area. The crime types included were
disorder, vandalism, vehicle crime and housebreaking.
Violent crime patterns within Glasgow: distribution of offenders and victims
by age, sex and small area shown; violent incidents by small area also.
5.28
5.29 –
5.32
5.33 –
5.36
5.37 –
5.43
5.44
5.455.46
5.47
5.48
5.49
5.50
Data supplied by Strathclyde Police’s Violence Reduction Unit on the
location (by data zone) of incidents of violent crime and the (data zone of)
residence of victims and perpetrators of violent crime covering a three-year
period from July 2002-June 2005 for Glasgow City. Offences that are
classified as ‘violent offences’ include: murder, attempted murder, serious
assault, simple assault and possession of an offensive weapon.
Incidents of domestic abuse: recorded incidents per 100,000
Original source: Domestic Abuse Recorded by the Police in Scotland, 1
January - 31 December 2004
(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/09/16120959/10005).
Hospital discharges after an assault: expressed as a rate per 1,000 population.
Assault defined by the ICD10 codes (X85-X99, Y00-Y09) in any position
GRO(S) population estimates used for denominator.
Main assault diagnoses on hospital discharge records: four main assault
diagnoses as a percentage of all assault discharges.
Assault defined by the ICD10 codes (X85-X99, Y00-Y09) in any position.
Only the first assault diagnosis code on each record was counted.
Frequency of assault discharges per person.
Assault defined by the ICD10 codes (X85-X99, Y00-Y09) in any position.
NB Some multiple admissions may be readmissions for treatment of injuries
caused in one rather than many assault incidents.
Hospital discharges after an assault: expressed as a rate per 1,000 population
Assault defined by the ICD10 codes (X85-X99, Y00-Y09) in any position
2001 Census population used for denominator.
Imprisonment: numbers of prisoners per 100,000 on 30th June 2003
Original source: Social Exclusion and Imprisonment in Scotland: A report
(http://www.sps.gov.uk/Uploads/C1D3FBFB-E123-4643-8D83AB0F622E7755.pdf).
Scottish Executive
SNS
Strathclyde Police
Strathclyde Police
Scottish Executive
ISD Scotland
ISD Scotland
ISD Scotland
ISD Scotland
Social Exclusion and
Imprisonment in
Scotland
vi
Figure
No.
5.51
5.52
5.535.54
6.1 –
6.3
Description/Notes
Source
Prisoners from type H housing: % imprisoned coming from type H
housing on 30th June 2003.
ACORN is a housing classification produced by the market research
company, CACI. The type H housing classification includes housing areas
characterised by high unemployment, overcrowding, council ownership, high
proportion of lone parents and poorer families. Original source:
Social Exclusion and Imprisonment in Scotland: A report
(http://www.sps.gov.uk/Uploads/C1D3FBFB-E123-4643-8D83AB0F622E7755.pdf).
Fear of crime: responses to a Scottish Household Survey question on
whether respondents felt safe walking in their neighbourhood alone after
dark.
Homelessness: homeless applications expressed as a rate per 100,000 adults
Original source: Operation of the Homeless Persons Legislation in Scotland:
National and Local Authority Analyses 2003-04
(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00363-00.asp).
Social Exclusion and
Imprisonment in
Scotland
House condition: estimates of numbers and proportions of properties (a)
classed as ‘below tolerable standard’; (b) with any urgent disrepair; (c) with
rising/penetrating damp; (d) with mould in any room.
Full details of all definitions are included within the report of the 2002
Scottish House Condition Survey available from Communities Scotland.
6.4
6.5 –
6.6
6.7 –
6.8
6.9 –
6.10
6.11
Overcrowding: percentage of population living in overcrowded households.
The definition of overcrowding relates the actual number of rooms in a
property to the number of rooms 'required' by the members of the household
(based on the relationships between them and their ages). Note that to show a
comparable trend between 1981, and 1991-2001 a correction factor was
applied to the 1981 figure. Further details available on request.
Overcrowding: percentages of all households termed overcrowded. See
definition of overcrowding above.
Owner-occupancy: percentage of all properties that are owned. This includes
accommodation that is either owned outright, owned with a mortgage or
loan, or shared ownership (paying part rent and part mortgage).
Vacant dwellings: percentage of all household spaces which are unoccupied.
Cleanliness: % of all sites graded A (no litter or refuse), B (predominantly
free of litter and refuse – apart from small items), C (widespread distribution
of litter and refuse with minor accumulations) and D (heavily littered with
significant accumulations). These are the four levels of cleanliness graded
within the Keep Scotland Beautiful recording system. The system grades
areas of study (transects) within each council according to the Code of
Practice on Litter and Refuse (1999), which relates to Part IV of the
Environmental Protection Act 1990 (EPA). The number of sites inspected in
each council area varies slightly each year. It is a 2% random sample of
streets but the actual number of sites varies slightly depending on length of
street selected - the longer the street the more sites inspected. The results are
collated annually. Under the grading system in use, sites graded ‘C’ or ‘D’
are unacceptable and must be cleaned. Grade A is the standard that a
thorough conventional sweeping/litter-picking should achieve.
Scottish Household
Survey
Scottish Executive
Scottish House
Condition Survey
(SHCS); Newhaven
Research (for
additional analysis of
the SHCS data for
GHA properties)
1981, 1991 and 2001
Censuses
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from 2001
Census data)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from 2001
Census data)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from 2001
Census data)
Keep Scotland
Beautiful
vii
Figure
No.
6.12
6.13 –
6.14
6.15
6.16
6.17
6.18
6.19
6.20
Description/Notes
Source
Cleanliness index: this is derived from the cleanliness data above, and is
calculated thus: points, or weightings, are awarded as follows to each
cleanliness grade: A=3; B=2; C=3; D=0. These ‘weightings are multiplied
by the count of sites in each grade and summed to create an actual score and
then divided by the maximum possible score (total count of sites surveyed
multiplied by three). The resulting ratio is multiplied by a 100 to give a
Cleanliness Index between 0 and 100.
Different sources of litter; adverse environmental quality indicators. These
data are also made available by the Keep Scotland Beautiful data system
outlined above. Further details are available from the Keep Scotland
Beautiful LEAMS Benchmarking report referenced in Chapter 6: Physical
environment.
Perceived problems in local area: % of respondents perceiving the following
to be common or very common: young people hanging around, drug activity,
excessive drinking, vandalism/graffiti, unemployment, car crime, burglaries,
assaults/muggings, domestic violence, bullying in schools.
Perception of environmental problems: % of respondents perceiving the
following to be common or very common: dog dirt, traffic, rubbish lying
about, noise & disturbance, air pollution, contaminated drinking water,
vacant/derelict buildings, abandoned cars, poor street lighting.
Noise complaints: total number of noise complaints per 10,000 population.
Data collected by Environmental Health departments within councils, passed
onto Health Protection Scotland. It should be noted, however, that these
figures may be misleading in a number of ways. First, an individual could
have complained on many occasions (thus inflating the population rate).
Second, the system only records complaints made to an Environmental
Health department (thus underestimating the real scale of noise problems in a
council area). Furthermore, the numbers are clearly dependent on how likely
people are to make a complaint in each area. Finally it is more important to
note that noise complaints can be subdivided by type (e.g. domestic,
industrial, etc.) but this level of detail is not reported here, given these
concerns regarding the reliability of the data.
Estimated traffic volume in all roads in Scotland by council area. Further
details on calculation, methodology, etc. are available from the Scottish
Executive’s Scottish Transport Statistics 2004 publication.
Projected traffic growth. Background traffic growth by local authority for all
traffic originating in that local authority. Full details of methodology used,
etc. is available from the relevant part of the Scottish Executive website
(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/library3/transport/rlts-05.asp).
Keep Scotland
Beautiful
Air pollution: mean NO2 readings. Data collected by Environmental Health
departments within councils, passed onto Health Protection Scotland.
However, there are a number of caveats about the data presented: the number
and location (kerbside/roadside; intermediate; background) of recording sites
varies substantially between councils. There are also differences in
measurement recording relating to the laboratory used, which normally
should be corrected for - bias correction. The figures presented have not
been bias corrected. The means provided are an average of all results and do
not differentiate between roadside or background monitors.
Keep Scotland
Beautiful
NHS Greater
Glasgow Health and
Well-being Survey
2002
NHS Greater
Glasgow Health and
Well-being Survey
2002
Health Protection
Scotland (from
council
environmental health
departments).
Scottish Transport
Statistics 2004
(Scottish Executive)
Scottish Executive
(Review of Local
Transport Strategies
and RTRA Reports
Final Report
(October 2001))
Health Protection
Scotland (from
council
environmental health
departments).
viii
Figure
No.
6.21 –
6.26
6.27 –
6.28
6.29 –
6.30
6.31
6.32
6.33
6.34
Description/Notes
Source
Access to leisure services in Glasgow for non-car users. Geographical
Information System (GIS) based analysis of access to local authority
(Glasgow City Council) owned leisure facilities in terms of: walking (based
around SE commissioned, and published, research stipulating maximum
‘acceptable’ walking distances for reaching services to be 1600m (distances
of 400m-800m are deemed as acceptable short to normal walking
distances)); cycling (relating to the similarly deemed acceptable cycling
distances of 5km (maximum), and 1km and 2km (acceptable short to normal
distances); public transport (% minutes walking time to a bus stop); car
ownership.
Fiona Marrison, MSc
in Geographical
Information Systems,
University of
Edinburgh Institute
of Geosciences, 2004
Analysis carried out for MSc dissertation. Further details of analysis is
available on request.
Access to services: percentage of households within five minutes drive time
of a dentist; and within five minutes drive-time of a secondary school. This
analysis of access to services was developed for the report, Availability of
Rural Services, published by the Scottish Executive in October 2002. Further
information is available from:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/library5/rural/asrs-25.asp.
Areas of, and proximity to, derelict land. Derelict land (and buildings) is
defined as that ‘which has been so damaged by development or use that it is
incapable of being developed for beneficial use without rehabilitation, and
which is not being used for either the purpose for which it is held, or for a
use acceptable in a local plan’. Exceptions, caveats, and full definitions are
available from the ‘area data guide’ of the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
website (http://www.sns.gov.uk).
Areas of Urban Vacant Land. Urban Vacant Land (and buildings) is defined
as ‘land located in urban settlements (defined here as GRO(S) settlements
with a population of 2,000 or more) or within one kilometre of the edge of
such settlements which is considered to display the characteristics of urban
vacant land; that is, land which is unused or unsightly, or which would
benefit from development or improvement’. Exceptions, caveats, and full
definitions are available from the ‘area data guide’ of the Scottish
Neighbourhood Statistics website (http://www.sns.gov.uk).
Proximity to landfill sites: % of population living within 2km of a landfill
site. Based on information supplied to SNS by SEPA on the location of
licensed landfill sites. Full details of methodology employed are available
from the ‘area data guide’ of the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics website
(http://www.sns.gov.uk).
Proximity to EPER sites (sites on the European Pollutant Emissions
Register): % of population living within 2km of a EPER site. Based on
information supplied to SNS by SEPA on location of such sites. Full details
of methodology employed are available from the ‘area data guide’ of the
Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics website (http://www.sns.gov.uk).
‘Greenspace’ map, categorising land usage across Glasgow. The
categorisation includes the following broad groupings (and sub groups of):
roads, water courses, railways, paths, buildings, open space (e.g. public
parks and gardens, amenity greenspace, sports areas, woodland, other
functional greenspace, etc.) and other open space (e.g. farmland, moor
land).This is produced using GIS software. The ‘open space’ categories are
based on a modified version of the Scottish Executive’s PAN65 open space
typology - further details are available from Planning Advice Note: PAN 65
Planning and Open Space
(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/library5/planning/pan65-00.asp). Scottish
Executive, January 2003.
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from SNS
data); SNS
SNS (from Scottish
Vacant and Derelict
Land Survey)
SNS (from Scottish
Vacant and Derelict
Land Survey)
SNS (from SEPA
data)
SNS (from SEPA
data)
Forestry Commission
Scotland; Glasgow
and Clyde Valley
Structure Plan Joint
Committee; Scottish
Natural Heritage
ix
Figure
No.
7.1
7.2
7.3 –
7.4
7.5 –
7.7
7.8
7.9
Description/Notes
Source
Alcohol consumption: percentage of adults (aged 16-64) exceeding weekly
recommended units of alcohol. Recommended units: 21 units per week for
males, 14 units per week for females.
Estimated prevalence of ‘problem alcohol use’: % of population aged 15-64
estimated to be ‘problem alcohol users’. Data taken from a report by
University of Glasgow Centre for Drug Misuse Research for Glasgow City
Council Addiction Services (see references section of Chapter 7: Behaviour).
Figures were derived from two sources: Glasgow City Council social enquiry
reports and data from a national drugs misuse prevalence report (produced by
the same authors): the former allowed calculation of the ratio of problem
drug users to problem alcohol users, which was then applied to the latter.
Please note, therefore, these are statistically modelled estimates and, given
the lack of any accurate data on prevalence of problem alcohol use in
Glasgow (as acknowledged by the authors of the report) it is extremely
difficult to gauge the accuracy of these findings.
Drunk-driving offences: total number, and rate per 1,000 population aged
17+. Population data taken from GRO(S).
Alcohol attributable and related hospitalisations: average annual acute
hospital inpatient stays in the period for directly alcohol related and alcohol
attributable conditions expressed as a directly age-standardised rate per
100,000 population. Admissions for all ages included. Diagnostic codes
included within alcohol-related category were defined by ISD and are
available on request or from ISD Scotland (see
www.alcoholinformation.isdscotland.org). List of conditions (and weights)
included within the broader alcohol-attributable category is available on
request. Relevant conditions were sought in all primary and secondary
admission diagnosis positions. Standardisation carried out using WHO
standard world population.
Alcohol related deaths. Total deaths, based on selection of ICD9/ICD10
codes used by ISD Scotland – see www.alcoholinformation.isdscotland.org
for more details. Note this definition differs from that used historically by
GRO(S) in two ways: first, it is slightly more comprehensive in terms of the
number of ICD codes used, and second, it includes not only principal (or
‘underlying’) alcohol related causes of death, but also secondary (or
‘contributing’) causes as well. Note also, however, that despite this slightly
more comprehensive definition, the results will unquestionably still
underestimate the true number of alcohol related deaths, given (a) its reliance
on the accuracy of cause of death recording by practitioners and (b) the fact
that this definition excludes conditions such as alcohol attributable cancers.
Note also that secondary causes of death have been limited to three in
number: from 1996, up to nine secondary causes can be recorded on the
GRO death record. At a national level, limiting the number of secondary
causes to three results in a 2% reduction in total numbers compared with
published ISD figures.
Liver cirrhosis mortality: age-standardised rates among men aged 15-74
years. Data for Scotland and Greater Glasgow presented in the context of
maximum, minimum, and mean rates for 16 Western European countries
(Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, N. Ireland,
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Scotland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,
England & Wales). Standardisation carried out using European standard
world population. Definitions (including ICD codes) and methodology match
those specified in: Leon, D. Scotland’s health in an international context.
Public Health Institute of Scotland, 2003
(http://www.phis.org.uk/projects/network.asp?p=ff).
Scottish Health
Survey
University of
Glasgow Centre for
Drugs Misuse
Research
Scottish Executive
Justice Department
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland SMR1 and
SMR4 data)
GRO(S)
WHOSIS
x
Figure
No.
7.10 –
7.12
7.13
7.14
7.15
7.16
7.17 –
7.18
7.19 –
7.20
7.21
7.22
7.23 –
7.25
Description/Notes
Source
Drugs misuse: number, location and proportion (% of population aged 1554) of problem drug users (individuals misusing opiates or benzodiazepines).
Figures are statistically modelled estimates. Full details of methodology,
definitions etc. are available from the report by Glasgow University Centre
for Drugs Misuse Research and the Scottish Centre for Infection &
Environmental Health – see references section of Chapter 7: Behaviour.
Drugs misuse: proportion (% of population aged 15-54) of problem drug
users (individuals misusing opiates or benzodiazepines) by LHCC area. Data
taken from same report from which data in Figure 7.2 (see above) was taken.
Figures are statistically modelled estimates and should be interpreted with
caution. The report authors note that the prevalence estimate for Glasgow is
“more reliable and robust that the estimates for the smaller LHCC areas”. It
should also be noted that the estimates at LHCC level were based on
aggregations of data at the postcode district level (e.g. G31) - thus the
definition of an LHCC area may differ considerably from recognised LHCC
boundaries.
Drug related deaths: total number of drug related deaths over a five year
period. The precise definition used in determining drug related deaths is
complex, combining information on causes – and underlying causes – of
death in terms of ICD codes, with other, specific information on the type of
drug known to be present in the body at the time of death. Further
information is available on the GRO(S) website (http://www.groscotland.gov.uk).
Drug related deaths: total number of drug related deaths per year. See notes
above (7.14) for more detail.
Percentage of adults (16+) who smoke.
University of
Glasgow Centre for
Drugs Misuse
Research; SCIEH
(now renamed Health
Protection Scotland)
University of
Glasgow Centre for
Drugs Misuse
Research; SCIEH
(now renamed Health
Protection Scotland)
Estimated smokers: estimated percentages of current smokers (aged 16-74).
NHSHS commissioned Professor Graham Moon and colleagues at the
University of Portsmouth to develop estimates of smoking prevalence across
Scotland. Estimates of smoking prevalence were created using multi-level
modelling techniques applied to data from the Scottish Health Survey (1995,
1998) and the 2001 census. Further details of the method used are available
on request.
Smoking attributable deaths: average annual deaths due to smoking related
causes (aged 35 and over) expressed as a crude rate per 100,000 population.
Created using a formula (Callum, C. (1998). The UK Smoking Epidemic:
Deaths in 1995, Health Education Authority: London.) that links smoking
status (current smokers and ex-smokers, obtained from the smoking
estimates calculation described above) with attributable risks for specific
causes of death known to be linked to smoking. These estimated proportions
were themselves then applied to data on seven years’ (1995-2001) of actual
deaths from the selected attributable causes. Further details of the method
used are available on request.
% of overweight & obese adults (aged 16+). Based on calculation of Body
Mass Index (BMI) (weight (in kg) divided by height (in metres) squared),
with ‘overweight’ classed as BMI greater than 25, and obese classed as BMI
greater than 30.
% of obese adults (16-64). See note above for definition of obese.
Diet: % of respondents who on average eat no portions of fruit per day; % of
respondents who on average eat no portions of vegetables (excl. potatoes) or
salad per day; % of respondents who on average eat five or more portions of
fruit and vegetables each day.
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from
GRO(S) data)
GRO(S)
Scottish Household
Survey
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from data
from Portsmouth
University)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from data
from Portsmouth
University)
Scottish Health
Survey
Scottish Health
Survey
NHS Greater
Glasgow Health and
Well-being Survey
2002
xi
Figure
No.
7.26 –
7.27
Description/Notes
Source
Oral health: % of respondents who had not been to the dentist in over 15
months; % of respondents who brush their teeth less than twice a day.
7.28
Acute sexually transmitted infections (STIs): all acute STI diagnoses per
100,000 population aged 15-64. Acute STIs include the following: infectious
syphilis, gonorrhoea, chlamydia, genital herpes (first episode only), genital
warts (first episode only), non-specific genital infections (non-chlamydial),
trichomoniasis, HIV infection (newly diagnosed only), “other acute STI”.
They do not include: other acquired syphilis, congenital syphilis, genital
herpes recurrence, genital warts recurrence/reregistered. Note that these
figures may be influenced by proximity to genito-urinary medicine services,
and higher levels of screening particular areas.
Exercise: survey respondents taking at least 20 minutes of vigorous exercise
3 or more times per week; survey respondents taking at least 20 minutes of
vigorous exercise three or more times per week or 30 minutes moderate
exercise five or more times per week
Travel: percentage of the population who travel to their place of work/study
by bicycle, foot and car. Excludes people not working or studying, or who
work or study mainly at or from home.
NHS Greater
Glasgow Health and
Well-being Survey
2002
ISD Scotland
7.29 –
7.30
7.31
8.1 –
8.3
8.4
Teenage pregnancies: teenage (13-19) pregnancies averaged over three years
expressed as a crude rate per 100 females aged 13-19.
NB Rates are based on annual averages rather than three year totals, as
used in the NHSHS Community Profiles.
Teenage abortions: average annual teenage (13-19) abortions expressed as a
rate per 100 females.
8.5 –
8.6
Age of first-time mothers: average age in years of first time mothers.
8.7
Older mothers: births to mothers aged 30 or older as a percentage of all
births.
Age of mother at birth of first child. Presented by Carstairs deprivation
quintile. Excludes home births and births at non-NHS hospitals.
Smoking in pregnancy: maternal smoking recorded at booking expressed as a
percentage of all admissions.
8.8
8.9 –
8.12
8.13
8.14 –
8.17
8.18 –
8.19
8.20
8.21
8.22 –
8.26
Smoking in pregnancy: maternal smoking recorded at booking by
deprivation quintile.
Low birthweight babies: live births of low birthweight (<2500g) (totalled
over three years) expressed as a percentage of all live singleton births.
Breastfeeding: average percentage of children born in 2000-2002 who were
being breast-fed at 6-8 week review. Includes exclusively breast fed or fed
mixed breast and bottle. NB Scottish figure is based on data for ten NHS
Boards.
Breastfeeding: breastfeeding rates recorded at the 6-8 week review for
children born in 2004. Includes exclusively breast fed or fed mixed breast
and bottle.
Breastfeeding: breastfeeding rates recorded at the 6-8 week review for period
between 1998-2004. Includes exclusively breast fed or fed mixed breast and
bottle. NB Scottish figure is based on data for ten NHS boards.
Primary immunisation uptake rate at 24 months for: (1) all immunisations
excluding MMR (mumps, measles, rubella) i.e. Diphtheria, Pertussis,
Tetanus, Polio, Hib; and (2) MMR only.
NHS Greater
Glasgow Health and
Well-being Survey
2002
2001 Census
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland data); ISD
Scotland
NHSHS Constituency
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland data)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland data)
ISD Scotland
ISD Scotland
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland data)
ISD Scotland
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland data);ISD
Scotland
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland data)
ISD Scotland
ISD Scotland
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland data)
xii
Figure
No.
Description/Notes
Source
9.1 –
9.4
Children of substance misusers: estimated numbers (and percentages) of
children (age 0-15) with (and living with) ‘problem drug use’ and/or
‘problem alcohol use’ parents. Data taken from a report by University of
Glasgow Centre for Drug Misuse Research for Glasgow City Council
Addiction Services (see references section of Chapter 9: Children and
adolescents). The figures are statistically modelled estimates derived from a
number of different data sources. It is extremely difficult to gauge the
accuracy of the findings and, as with any modelled estimates, the information
should be interpreted with caution. Drugs misuse figures were calculated
through combining data from a national drugs misuse prevalence report
(published in 2005 and referenced in the ‘Behaviour’ chapter of this report),
and the Drug Outcomes Research in Scotland (DORIS) study (see:
www.gla.ac.uk/centres/drugmisuse/DORIS.html). The sample size for
Glasgow in the latter study was only 240. Alcohol figures were derived from
Glasgow City Council social enquiry reports and the same national drugs
misuse report: the former allowed calculation of the ratio of problem drug
users to problem alcohol users, which was then applied to the latter.
Information on the numbers of children was again derived from the fairly
small DORIS cohort.
Number and proportion (rate per 1,000) of children (aged 0-17) ‘looked
after’ by a local authority. A child is defined as ‘looked after’ by a local
authority: for whom they are providing accommodation under section 25 of
the Children (Scotland) Act 1975; who is subject to a supervision
requirement; who is subject to an order made, or authorisation or warrant
granted, by virtue of Ch.2, 3 or 4 of the aforementioned act, being an order,
authorisation or warrant in accordance with which they (the local authority)
have responsibilities as respects the child; who is subject to an order in
accordance with which, by virtue of regulations made under section 33(1) of
the aforementioned act, they have such responsibilities (Norrie K, (1995)
Children (Scotland) Act 1995. Edinburgh: W. Green/Sweet & Maxwell).
Children looked after: reason for children being looked after by Glasgow
City Council, as recorded on the council’s CareFirst system. Due to
recording issues, it is difficult to obtain an accurate breakdown of the most
common reasons for children being looked after, as a significant percentage
are recorded as being in care as a result of ‘child protection orders’ – and
these may have been issued for a variety of different reasons which cannot be
extracted from the system.
Child protection register: number and proportion (rate per 1,000) of children
(0-15) placed on child protection register. Children are referred to the
register in response to allegations of child neglect or physical, sexual, or
emotional abuse. Not all referrals will result in the child's name being added
to the register, an action which reflects suspected or actual risk to the child.
Data presented here are for placements on the register, not referrals.
Children in workless households: percentage of dependent children living in
households where no-one is in employment.
University of
Glasgow Centre for
Drugs Misuse
Research
9.5 –
9.7
9.8
9.9 –
9.10
9.11 –
9.12
9.13
9.14
9.15
Pre-school overweight and obese children: children born in 1998 whose BMI
(body mass index) – derived from height and weight measured at the 39-42
month review - is greater than the 85th centile. Data for Scotland exclude
Grampian, Highland, Orkney, Shetland and Western Isles NHS Board areas.
Dental health: percentage of five year old children with zero caries (no
decayed, missing or filled teeth).
Dental health: percentage of five year old children with ‘obvious or advanced
decay’ (as defined by NDIP risk levels 2 or 3: risk level 2 – ‘obvious
evidence of decay experience and/or poor oral hygiene’; risk level 3 –
‘obvious advanced and/or widespread current decay’).
Care Scotland (from
Scottish Executive
CLA Returns)
Glasgow City
Council Social Work
Department
(CareFirst system)
Care Scotland (from
Scottish Executive
Children Statistics)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from 2001
Census data)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland data)
NDIP; SHBDEP
NDIP
xiii
Figure
No.
9.16 –
9.17
9.18 –
9.26
9.27
9.28
10.1 –
10.2
10.3 –
10.4
10.5 –
10.7
10.8 –
10.9
Description/Notes
Source
Dental hospital admissions among children: total (over four years) hospital
inpatient stays among children (0-15) for dental related conditions.
Expressed as crude rate per 100 children. Dental-related admissions defined
by following ICD codes: ICD9 520-528 (except 520.3, .5, .7, 523.0, .3,
528.5-528.9), ICD10 K00-K12 (except K00.3, .5, .7, K05.0, .2, K100)
(principal diagnosis only). For calculation of rates, 2001 populations were
used for 1999-2002.
Adolescent smoking, drinking and drug-taking: rates of smoking (pupils
classifying themselves as ‘regular smokers’); alcohol consumption (whether
pupils had ever had an alcoholic drink; whether pupils had drunk alcohol in
the previous week); and drug-taking (whether pupils had taken drugs in the
past month) among 13 and 15 year olds.
Teenage alcohol attributable/related hospitalisations: average annual acute
hospital inpatient stays for 13-19 year olds for directly alcohol related and
alcohol attributable conditions expressed as a crude rate per 100 population
aged 13-19. Diagnostic codes included within alcohol-related category were
defined by ISD and are available on request or from ISD Scotland (see
http://www.alcoholinformation.isdscotland.org). List of conditions (and
weights) included within the broader alcohol-attributable category is
available on request. Relevant conditions were sought in all primary and
secondary admission diagnosis positions.
Child road accident casualties: total number of child (0-15) casualties
expressed as a crude rate per 10,000 population aged 0-15. Note that
casualties data were obtained from the Scottish Executive with rates then
calculated based on the resident population of each council area. It is worth
noting that casualties are assigned to a council area in which an accident
occurred. However, clearly not all casualties necessarily come from the area
where the accident occurred and, where traffic volumes are high and the road
systems are most developed, there is a likelihood of higher numbers of
casualties occurring. These caveats should be borne in mind when
interpreting the rates presented.
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland data)
Limiting long-term illness: percentage of individuals perceiving that they
have a limiting long-term illness, health problem or disability which limits
their daily activities or the work they can do, including problems that are due
to old age.
Self assessed health: percentage of individuals classifying their health as ‘not
good’. This is derived from the census question on self-assessment of each
person's general health over the last year. Three options are included on the
census form: ‘Good’, ‘Fairly Good’, ‘Not Good’.
Unable to work due to disability: percentage of working age population
(women 16-59; men 16-64) claiming Incapacity Benefit (IB) or Severe
Disablement Allowance (SDA). Incapacity Benefit is a contributory, nonmeans tested benefit. It is paid to people who are assessed as being incapable
of work and who meet the appropriate contribution conditions. Severe
Disablement Allowance is non-contributory, non-means tested benefit.
People who are incapable of work and do not satisfy the contribution
conditions for Incapacity Benefit (IB) may get SDA.
Disability Living Allowance claimants: percentage of population aged 18-64
claiming Disability Living Allowance (Mobility Component). DLA is
payable to people who are disabled and who have personal care needs,
mobility needs or both. The mobility component is for people who need help
with getting around (it is not available for children under three).
SALSUS
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland SMR1 and
SMR4 data)
Scottish Executive
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from 2001
Census data)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from 2001
Census data)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from DWP
data); DWP
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from DWP
data)
xiv
Figure
No.
10.10 –
10.12
10.13 –
10.14
11.1 –
11.8
Description/Notes
Source
Blue badge holders: total number (and rate per 100 population aged 17+) of
blue (and orange (pre-April 2003)) badges issued. Includes badges issued on
automatic and discretionary basis. Badges issued in the automatic categories
are to recipients of: mobility allowances; the higher rate of mobility
component of Disability Living Allowance; Government issued cars or
grants towards their own cars; War Pensioners' Mobility Supplement; or to
registered blind people. Badges granted in the discretionary category to
people with a permanent and substantial disability who are unable or nearly
unable to walk.
Scottish Executive’s
Scottish Transport
Statistics
Note, however, that it is unclear to what extent the variation in rates across
the country is attributable to need, to different council practices or just to
differences in age structure.
Attendance Allowance claimants: percentage of population aged 65+
claiming Attendance Allowance benefit. Attendance Allowance is a benefit
for people over the age of 65 who are so severely disabled, physically or
mentally, that they need a great deal of help with personal care or
supervision.
Estimates of disease prevalence at primary care level. The figures presented
in this section are taken from the QOF (Quality and Outcomes Framework)
data first published by ISD Scotland in summer 2005. The data – collated as
part of the system to remunerate GPs within the agreed new General Medical
Service (GMS) contract – include, for each practice, the total number of
patients recorded on each of eleven separate disease registers. Participation
in the scheme is, however, voluntary, and the data presented in Chapter 11:
Illness and disease, for the NHS Greater Glasgow area, covers 210 out of the
215 Greater Glasgow practices. Two important points to note with regard to
these data are highlighted in Chapter 11: (1) given the five missing GP
practices, the figures will be an underestimate of the true disease prevalence
of each disease category; (2) the data are currently not available by age or
sex: thus, where crude rates are presented, they do not take into account the
age/sex structures of the populations. Variations in rates could thus be a
consequence of, for example, larger proportions of elderly patients within a
practice population.
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from DWP
data)
ISD Scotland
(QMAS Database as
at May 2005)
Data presented at small area level (Figures 11.2-11.8) are GP Practice level
data, with postcode sector of the GP Practice assigned a descriptive name
from the list used in the community profiles (see Appendix 2 for full list).
The total numbers of patients on disease registers (Figure 11.1) differ very
slightly from figures published by ISD Scotland, due to differences in the
total number of practices included in the analyses.
Prevalence rates for diabetes and epilepsy at GP Practice level differ slightly
from figures published by ISD Scotland as rates have been calculated per
100 practice population aged 15+, whereas data published by ISD data used
the total practice population as denominator.
11.9 –
11.12
Further information, data and definitions are available from:
http://www.isdscotland.org/qof .
Hospital admissions – diabetes: average annual numbers and directly agestandardised rates per 100,000 population of acute hospital continuous
inpatient stays for particular diagnoses (ICD9 250; ICD10 E10-E14 (all
diagnostic positions)). Standardisation carried out using WHO standard
world population.
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland SMR1 data)
xv
Figure
No.
11.13 –
11.16
11.17
11.18 –
11.19
11.20
11.21
11.22
11.23
11.24
11.25 –
11.26
11.27 –
11.28
Description/Notes
Source
Hospital admissions – external causes: average annual numbers and directly
age-standardised rates per 100,000 population of acute hospital continuous
inpatient stays for particular diagnoses (ICD9 E800-E999; ICD10 V01-Y98
(all secondary diagnoses)). Standardisation carried out using WHO standard
world population.
Hospital admissions – deliberate self harm: average annual numbers and
directly age-standardised rates per 100,000 population of acute hospital
continuous inpatient stays for particular diagnoses (ICD9 E950-E959; ICD10
X60-X84 (all secondary diagnoses)). Standardisation carried out using WHO
standard world population.
First hospital admissions – psychiatric: average annual numbers and directly
age-standardised rates for all first psychiatric inpatient episodes (mental
health). Standardisation carried out using WHO standard world population.
Road accident casualties: number and rate per 10,000 population of
casualties (all adults and children (0-15 years)) injured in road accidents.
Road accidents and casualties are geographically referenced to the location
of the accident. Thus, the rate of casualties presented is based on the number
of road accident casualties in an area divided by the population in that area.
Clearly not all casualties necessarily come from the area where the accident
occurred and, where traffic volumes are high and the road systems are most
developed, there is a likelihood of higher numbers of casualties occurring.
These caveats should be borne in mind when interpreting the rates presented.
Ischaemic heart disease mortality: age standardised rates among men aged
15-74 years. Standardisation carried out using European standard world
population. Definitions (including ICD codes) and methodology match those
specified in: Leon, D. Scotland’s health in an international context. Public
Health Institute of Scotland, 2003
(http://www.phis.org.uk/projects/network.asp?p=ff).
Deaths from heart disease (all forms): average annual deaths due to heart
disease (ICD9 390-429; ICD10 I00-I52 (principal cause only) expressed as
number and directly age-standardised rate per 100,000 population. Includes
deaths at all ages. Excludes non-Scottish residents. Standardisation carried
out using WHO standard world population.
Cerebrovascular disease mortality: age standardised rates among men aged
15-74 years. Standardisation carried out using European standard world
population. Definitions (including ICD codes) and methodology match those
specified in: Leon, D. Scotland’s health in an international context. Public
Health Institute of Scotland, 2003
(http://www.phis.org.uk/projects/network.asp?p=ff).
Suicide: age standardised rates among men aged 15-74 years.
Standardisation carried out using European standard world population.
Definitions (including ICD codes) and methodology match those specified
in: Leon, D. Scotland’s health in an international context. Public Health
Institute of Scotland, 2003
(http://www.phis.org.uk/projects/network.asp?p=ff).
Deaths from cancer: average annual deaths due to all malignant neoplasms
(ICD9 140-208; ICD10 C00-C97 (principal cause only)) expressed as
number and directly age-standardised rate per 100,000 population. Includes
deaths at all ages. Excludes non-Scottish residents. Standardisation carried
out using WHO standard world population.
Lung cancer mortality: age standardised rates among men and women aged
15-74 years. Standardisation carried out using European standard world
population. Definitions (including ICD codes) and methodology match those
specified in: Leon, D. Scotland’s health in an international context. Public
Health Institute of Scotland, 2003
(http://www.phis.org.uk/projects/network.asp?p=ff).
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland SMR1 data)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland SMR1 data)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from ISD
Scotland SMR4 data)
Transport Statistics,
Scottish Executive
GRO(S)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from
GRO(S) data)
GRO(S)
GRO(S)
NHSHS Community
Profiles (from
GRO(S) data)
GRO(S)
xvi
Figure
No.
11.29
11.30 –
11.33
12.1
12.2
Description/Notes
Source
Premature mortality: male and female deaths under the age of 65 expressed
as percentage of all deaths. Note that these proportions do not take account
of the age structure of the population, and thus could be influenced by higher
than average under 65 populations in any of the communities.
Ten most frequently occurring principal causes of death under the age of 65
(shown as percentage of all deaths under 65).
GRO(S)
Projections of male life expectancy at birth in years.
Projections created applying a simple linear regression to past life
expectancy trends.
Projections of alcohol related mortality. Projections created applying a
simple linear regression to past alcohol related mortality trends.
See note for Figure 7.8 (above) for more details of the calculation of alcohol
related mortality from death registrations.
Applied to data from
Office for National
Statistics (ONS)
Applied to GRO(S)
data
GRO(S)
xvii
Appendix 2: Postcode sectors
Appendix 2: Greater Glasgow and West of Scotland postcode sectors
The following postcode sectors are those contained within the West of Scotland ‘communities’ used in the
analyses. With some minor adaptations, the descriptive names are those that were used in the Community
Profiles. Although we believe that presenting the information in this way is more meaningful to the reader, it
should be noted that these names are very approximate, and the boundaries of postcode sectors will seldom
match natural communities.
Note that in the Community Profiles, particularly small postcode sectors (i.e. with populations of less than 1,000
people) were aggregated to produce areas with a larger population for which more robust statistics could be
presented.
(Merged) postcode
sectors
Descriptive name
Community
G1 1, G1 2, G1 3, G1 4,
G1 5, G2 1, G2 2, G2 3,
G2 4, G2 5, G2 6, G2 7,
G2 8
G11 5
G11 6
G11 7
G12 0
G12 8
G12 9
G13 1
City Centre
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
Partickhill
Meadowside
Broomhill
Kelvindale; Kelvinside
Hillhead
Hyndland; Dowanhill
Jordanhill; Temple
G13 2
G13 3
G13 4
G14 0
G14 9
G15 6
Knightswood N
Knightswood S
Yoker N
Yoker S
Scotstoun
Drumchapel SE
G15 7
Drumchapel NE
G15 8
Drumchapel W
G20 0
Maryhill N
G20 6
G20 7
Kelvin N
Woodside
G20 8
Kelvinside N
G20 9
Ruchill
G21 1
Cowlairs
G21 2
Garngad; Royston
G21 3
Barmulloch; Robroyston
G21 4
Balornock
G22 5
Hamiltonhill
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Anniesland,
Bearsden and
Milngavie
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Glasgow West End
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Greater Glasgow (G)
or other West of
Scotland (W)
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
xviii
(Merged) postcode
sectors
Descriptive name
Community
G22 6
Parkhouse
G22 7
High Possil
G23 5
Summerston
G3 6
G3 7
G3 8
G31 1
Park Circus; Woodlands….
Kelvingrove
Yorkhill
Camlachie
G31 2
Dennistoun
G31 3
Haghill
G31 4
G31 5
G32 0
G32 6
G32 7
G32 8
G32 9
G33 1
G33 2
G33 3
G33 4
G33 5
G33 6
G34 0
G34 9
G4 0
Parkhead S
Parkhead N
Springboig; Mount Vernon N
Carntyne
Shettleston; Tollcross
Carmyle
Sandyhills; MountVernon
Blackhill
Riddrie
Ruchazie
Barlanark
Garthamlock
Stepps
Easterhouse E
Easterhouse W
Townhead
G4 9
G40 1
Port Dundas; Woodlands
Bridgeton W
G40 2
Calton
G40 3
Bridgeton E
G40 4
Dalmarnock
G41 1
G41 2
G41 3
G41 4
G41 5
G42 0
G42 7
G42 8
G42 9
G43 1
G43 2
G44 3
G44 4
Kinning Park S
Strathbungo
Shawlands
Dumbreck
Pollokshields; Bellahouston
Polmadie; Toryglen
Govanhill N
Crosshill
Battlefield
Pollokshaws
Newlands
Cathcart
Kingspark
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Maryhill, Woodside
and North Glasgow
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Glasgow West End
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
Glasgow West End
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
Bridgeton and
Dennistoun
South West Glasgow
Greater Shawlands
Greater Shawlands
Greater Shawlands
Greater Shawlands
South East Glasgow
South East Glasgow
South East Glasgow
South East Glasgow
Greater Shawlands
Eastwood
South East Glasgow
South East Glasgow
Greater Glasgow (G)
or other West of
Scotland (W)
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
xix
(Merged) postcode
sectors
Descriptive name
Community
G44 5
G45 0
G45 9
G46 6
G46 7
G46 8
G5 0
G5 8, G5 9
G51 1
G51 2
G51 3
G51 4
G52 1
G52 2
G52 3
G52 4
G53 5
G53 6
G53 7
G60 5
Croftfoot; Linn Park
Castlemilk E
Castlemilk W
Giffnock
Thornliebank
Carnwadric; Darnley E
Hutchesontown; Gorbals; Oatlands
Tradeston; Gorbals
Kinning Park N
Ibrox
Govan
Shieldhall
Craigton; Mosspark
Cardonald N; Hillington
Cardonald S
Penilee
Pollok
Nitshill
Hurlet; Nitshill; Darnley
Old Kilpatrick
G61 1
Bearsden - Westerton
G61 2
Bearsden - Kessington
G61 3
Bearsden - Kilmardinny
G61 4
Bearsden - Castlehill; Thorn
G62 6
Milngavie - Keystone; Dougalston
G62 7
Milngavie - Clober; Mains Est.
G62 8
Milngavie - Barloch
G64 1
G64 2
G64 3
G64 4
G65 0
G65 9
G66 1
G66 2
G66 3
G66 4
G66 5
G66 7
Bishopbriggs E; Auchinairn
Bishopbriggs W
Bishopbriggs N; Cadder
Torrance; Balmore
Kilsyth
Balmalloch; Queenzieburn
Kirkintilloch W
Kirkintilloch N; Hillhead
Kirkintilloch S; Waterside
Lenzie N
Lenzie S; Auchinloch
Lennoxtown
South East Glasgow
South East Glasgow
South East Glasgow
Eastwood
Eastwood
Greater Shawlands
South East Glasgow
South East Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South West Glasgow
South West Glasgow
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
Anniesland,
Bearsden and
Milngavie
Anniesland,
Bearsden and
Milngavie
Anniesland,
Bearsden and
Milngavie
Anniesland,
Bearsden and
Milngavie
Anniesland,
Bearsden and
Milngavie
Anniesland,
Bearsden and
Milngavie
Anniesland,
Bearsden and
Milngavie
Strathkelvin
Strathkelvin
Strathkelvin
Strathkelvin
Cumbernauld
Cumbernauld
Strathkelvin
Strathkelvin
Strathkelvin
Strathkelvin
Strathkelvin
Strathkelvin
Greater Glasgow (G)
or other West of
Scotland (W)
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
W
W
G
G
G
G
G
G
xx
(Merged) postcode
sectors
Descriptive name
Community
G66 8
G67 1
G67 2
G67 3
G67 4
G68 0
G68 9
G69 0
G69 6
G69 7
G69 8
G69 9
G71 5
G71 6
G71 7
G71 8
G72 0
G72 7
Milton Of Campsie
Seafar
Lenziemill; Kildrum
Abronhill
Condorrat; Mollinsburn
Cumbernauld Village; Dullatur
Balloch; Westfield
Moodiesburn
Baillieston N
Baillieston S
Gartcosh
Chryston
Viewpark
Tannochside
Uddingston
Bothwell
Blantyre S; High Blantyre
Cambuslang N
G72 8
Cambuslang S
G72 9
G73 1
Blantyre N
Rutherglen N
G73 2
Rutherglen W
G73 3
Rutherglen E
G73 4
Rutherglen SW
G73 5
Rutherglen SE
G74 1
G74 2
G74 3
G74 4, G74 5
G75 0
G75 9
G76 0
G76 7
G76 8
G76 9
East Kilbride - Centre
East Kilbride E - Saint Leonards
East Kilbride NE - Calderwood
East Kilbride NW; Thorntonhall
East Kilbirde SE - The Murray;
Whitehills
East Kilbride SW - Westwood;
Hairmyres
East Kilbride S - Greenhills
Eaglesham
Clarkston
Busby
Carmunnock
Strathkelvin
Cumbernauld
Cumbernauld
Cumbernauld
Cumbernauld
Cumbernauld
Cumbernauld
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Eastern Glasgow
Motherwell
Motherwell
Hamilton
Hamilton
Hamilton
Cambuslang and
Rutherglen
Cambuslang and
Rutherglen
Hamilton
Cambuslang and
Rutherglen
Cambuslang and
Rutherglen
Cambuslang and
Rutherglen
Cambuslang and
Rutherglen
Cambuslang and
Rutherglen
East Kilbride
East Kilbride
East Kilbride
East Kilbride
East Kilbride
G77 5
G77 6
G78 1
Broom; Kirkhill; Mearns
Newton Mearns
Barrhead W
G78 2
Barrhead E
G78 3, G78 4
Neilston; Uplawmoor
G75 8
Greater Glasgow (G)
or other West of
Scotland (W)
G
W
W
W
W
W
W
G
G
G
G
G
W
W
W
W
W
G
G
W
G
G
G
G
G
W
W
W
W
W
East Kilbride
W
East Kilbride
Eastwood
Eastwood
Eastwood
Cambuslang and
Rutherglen
Eastwood
Eastwood
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Paisley and Levern
Valley
W
G
G
G
G
G
G
W
W
W
xxi
(Merged) postcode
sectors
Descriptive name
G81 1
Whitecrook
G81 2
G81 3
G81 4
G81 5
G81 6
G82 1
G82 2
G82 3
G82 4
G82 5
G83 0
G83 7, G83 8
G83 9
G84 0
G84 7
G84 8
G84 9
KA1 1
KA1 2
KA1 3
KA1 4
KA1 5
KA10 6
KA10 7
KA11 1
KA11 2
KA11 3
KA11 4, KA11 5
KA12 0
KA12 8
KA12 9
KA13 6
KA13 7
KA14 3, KA15 1
KA15 2
KA16 9
KA17 0
KA18 1
KA18 2
KA18 3
KA18 4
KA19 7
KA19 8
KA2 0
KA2 9
KA20 3
Community
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
Drumry; Linnvale
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
Radnor Park
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
Dalmuir
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
Faifley
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
Duntocher; W Hardgate
Clydebank and
Drumchapel
Dumbarton E
Lomond
Milton
Lomond
Dumbarton N
Lomond
Renton; Kirktonhill
Lomond
Cardross
Lomond
Alexandria
Lomond
Arrochar
Lomond
Bonhill; Jamestown
Lomond
Garelochhead
Lomond
Helensburgh E
Lomond
Helensburgh; Rhu
Lomond
Glen Fruin
Lomond
Kilmarnock
East Ayrshire
Kilmarnock; Bonnyton; Grange
East Ayrshire
Kilmarnock Centre; Bellfield
East Ayrshire
Riccarton; Shortlees
East Ayrshire
Hurlford
East Ayrshire
Troon-Town Centre; Barassie
South Ayrshire
Troon-Muirhead; Loans; Barassie
South Ayrshire
Girdle Toll; Stanecastle; Bourtreehill; North Ayrshire
Broomlands
Perceton; Sourlie; Doura; Roddinghill North Ayrshire
Springside
North Ayrshire
Irvine; Dreghorn
North Ayrshire
Irvine
North Ayrshire
Fullarton
North Ayrshire
Irvine Centre; Stanecastle
North Ayrshire
Kilwinning
North Ayrshire
Kilwinning
North Ayrshire
Glengarnock; Longbar
North Ayrshire
Beith North
North Ayrshire
Newmills; Greenholm
East Ayrshire
Darvel
East Ayrshire
Cumnock
East Ayrshire
Ochiltree; Auchinleck
East Ayrshire
Muirkirk; Smallburn; Lugar; Logan East Ayrshire
New Cumnock
East Ayrshire
Maybole; Crosshill; Straiton
South Ayrshire
Maybole
South Ayrshire
Knockentiber; Crosshouse
East Ayrshire
Dundonald
South Ayrshire
Stevenston; Auchenharvie
North Ayrshire
Greater Glasgow (G)
or other West of
Scotland (W)
G
G
G
G
G
G
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
xxii
(Merged) postcode
sectors
Descriptive name
Community
KA20 4
KA21 5
KA21 6
KA22 7
KA22 8
KA23 9
KA24 4
KA24 5
KA25 6
KA25 7
KA26 0
KA26 9
KA27 8
KA28 0
KA29 0
KA3 1
KA3 2
KA3 3
KA3 4
KA3 5
KA3 6
KA3 7
Stevenston
Saltcoats South
Saltcoats North
Ardrossan; Whitlees; Chapelhill
Ardrossan
West Kilbride
Dalry
Dalry; Drakemyre
Kilbirnie South
Kilbirnie North
Ballantrae; Colmonell; Barrhill
Old Dally; Dally; Turnberry
Holy Island; Isle of Arran
Millport
Glenside; Fairlie; Kelburn
Altonhill; Knockinlaw....
Kilmaurs; Kirktoun; Onthank
Stewarton
Lugton; Dunlop
Stewarton; Fulwood; Kingsford
Southcraigs; Fenwick
Whinpark; New Farm Loch;
Beansburn
Largs
Largs East
Galston
Tarbolton
Mauchline; Catrine; Sorn
Mossblown; Annbank
Coylton; Dalrymple; Hollybush
Patna; Dalmellington….
Ayr - Harbour and W Town Centre
Ayr; Belmont
Holmston; Forehill; Belmont;
Castlehill; Masonhill; Kincaidston
Doonfoot; Alloway
Dalmilling; Craigie
Woodfield; Wallacetown
Heathfield; Whitletts..
Prestwick
Monkton
Motherwell E
Motherwell S - Knoweton; Muirhouse
Motherwell N
Holytown
Newarthill; Cleland
Strathaven
Lesmahagow; Coalburn; Douglas
Lanark
Carstairs; Forth; Carnwath
Blackwood; Kirkmuirhill; Rigside
Biggar; Leadhills; Abington
Netherton; Overton
Wishaw W
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
Greater Glasgow (G)
or other West of
Scotland (W)
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
South Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
South Ayrshire
Motherwell
Motherwell
Motherwell
Motherwell
Wishaw
East Kilbride
Clydesdale
Clydesdale
Clydesdale
Clydesdale
Clydesdale
Wishaw
Wishaw
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
KA30 8
KA30 9
KA4 8
KA5 5
KA5 6
KA6 5
KA6 6
KA6 7
KA7 1
KA7 2
KA7 3
KA7 4
KA8 0
KA8 8
KA8 9
KA9 1
KA9 2
ML1 1
ML1 2
ML1 3
ML1 4
ML1 5
ML10 6
ML11 0
ML11 7
ML11 8
ML11 9
ML12 6
ML2 0
ML2 7
xxiii
(Merged) postcode
sectors
Descriptive name
Community
ML2 8
ML2 9
ML3 0
ML3 6
ML3 7
ML3 8
Wishaw
Wishaw
Hamilton
Hamilton
Hamilton
Hamilton
ML3 9
ML4 1
ML4 2
ML4 3
ML5 1
Wishaw E- Coltness; Greenhead
Newmains
Hamilton N- Whitehill; Burnbank
Hamilton NE
Hamilton SE - Barncluith; Eddlewood
Hamilton SW - Laighstonehall;
Fairhill
Hamilton W - Udston
Bellshill N
Orbiston; Milnwood
Bellshill W
Coatbridge West
ML5 2
Glenboig; Marnock
ML5 3
Cliftonville
ML5 4
Carnbroe; Shawhead
ML5 5
Old Monkland; Kirkwood
ML6 0
Burnfoot; Glenmavis
ML6 6
Airdrie North
ML6 7
Caldercruix; Longriggend
ML6 8
Chapelhall; Craigneuk
ML6 9
Coatdyke; Calderbank
ML7 4
ML7 5
ML8 4
ML8 5
ML9 1
ML9 2
ML9 3
PA1 1
Shotts; Salsburgh
Allanton; Stane; Harthill
Carluke
Rosebank; Crossford; W Carluke
Larkhall W
Larkhall E
Stonehouse
Paisley Central
PA1 2
Millarston
PA1 3
Ralston
PA10 2
Kilbarchan
PA11 3
Bridge of Weir
PA12 4
Lochwinnoch
PA13 4
PA14 5
PA14 6
PA15 1
PA15 2
Kilmacolm
Port Glasgow W
Port Glasgow E; Langbank
Greenock Central
Greenock E
Hamilton
Motherwell
Motherwell
Motherwell
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Airdrie and
Coatbridge
Wishaw
Wishaw
Clydesdale
Clydesdale
Hamilton
Hamilton
Hamilton
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Inverclyde
Inverclyde
Inverclyde
Inverclyde
Inverclyde
Greater Glasgow (G)
or other West of
Scotland (W)
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
xxiv
(Merged) postcode
sectors
Descriptive name
Community
PA15 3
PA15 4
PA16 0
PA16 7
PA16 8
PA16 9
PA17 5
PA18 6
PA19 1
PA2 0
Greenock SE
Greenock Rankin
Inverkip; Greenock SW
Greenock Esplanade
Greenock Finnart
Loch Thom
Skelmorlie; Meigle; Auchengarth
Wemyss Bay
Gourock
Foxbar
PA2 6
Espedair
PA2 7
Hunterhill
PA2 8
Glenburn
PA2 9
Lounsdale
PA3 1
Ferguslie Park
PA3 2
Laigh Park
PA3 3
Linwood
PA3 4
Gallowhill
PA4 0
Renfrew S
PA4 8
Renfrew N
PA4 9
Inchinnan
PA5 0
Johnstone Castle
PA5 8
Johnstone
PA5 9
Elderslie
PA6 7
Houston
PA7 5
Bishopton
PA8 6
Erskine W
PA8 7
Erskine E
PA9 1
Howwood
Inverclyde
Inverclyde
Inverclyde
Inverclyde
Inverclyde
Inverclyde
North Ayrshire
Inverclyde
Inverclyde
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Paisley and Levern
Valley
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Renfrew and West
Renfrewshire
Greater Glasgow (G)
or other West of
Scotland (W)
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
xxv
Appendix 3: Table of abbreviations
Appendix 3: Table of abbreviations
ABI
ASHE
BMI
BTS
CHCP
CHD
CHP
CLA
COPD
Dep Quin
DLA
DORIS
DWP
EHS3
EPA
EPER
FCS
FQA
GCPH
GCVSPJC
GHA
GIS
GMS
GRO(S)/GROS
GVA
HESA
Hib
HLE
HRP
IB
ICD
IPPC
IS
ISD Scotland
LE
LEAMS
LHCC
LLI
MMR
MOH
NES
NDIP
NHSGG
NHSHS
NOMIS
ONS
OPEC
PAN
QMAS
QOF
RF
RTRA
Annual Business Inquiry
Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
Body Mass Index
Below Tolerable Standard
Community Health and Care Partnership
Coronary Heart Disease
Community Health Partnership
Children Looked After
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
Deprivation Quintile
Disability Living Allowance
Drug Outcomes Research in Scotland
Department for Work and Pensions
Environmental Health Surveillance System for Scotland
Environmental Protection Act
European Pollutant Emissions Register
Forestry Commission Scotland
Four Quarter Average
Glasgow Centre for Population Health
Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plan Joint Committee
Glasgow Housing Association
Geographical Information System
General Medical Service
The General Register Office for Scotland
Gross Value Added
Higher Education Statistics Agency
Haemophilus influenzae type b
Healthy Life Expectancy
Household Reference Person
Incapacity Benefit
International Classification of Diseases
Industrial Pollution Prevention and Control
Income Support
Information Services Division of NHS National Services Scotland
Life Expectancy
Local Environmental Audit and Management System
Local Healthcare Cooperative
Limiting Long-term Illness
Measles, Mumps, Rubella
Medical Officer of Health (of the City of Glasgow)
New Earnings Survey
National Dental Inspection Programme
NHS Greater Glasgow
NHS Health Scotland
National Online Manpower Information System
Office for National Statistics
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries
Planning Advice Note
Quality Management and Analysis System
Quality and Outcomes Framework
Regional Forecasts
Road Traffic Reduction Act
xxvi
SALSUS
SCIEH
SDA
SE
SEPA
SHBDEP
SHCS
SHHS
SHS
SIMD
SIP
SMR1/2/4
SNH
SNS
STI
SVDLS
TIA
WHO
WHOSIS
Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle & Substance Use Survey
Scottish Centre for Infection and Environmental Health
Severe Disablement Allowance
Scottish Executive
Scottish Environment Protection Agency
Scottish Health Boards' Dental Epidemiological Programme
Scottish House Condition Survey
Scottish Household Survey
Scottish Health Survey
Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation
Social Inclusion Partnership
Scottish Morbidity Records
Scottish Natural Heritage
Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
Sexually Transmitted Infections
Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey
Transient Ischaemic Attack
World Health Organisation
World Health Organisation Statistical Information System
xxvii