Taxation and the Optimal Constraint on Corporate Debt Finance: Why a Comprehensive Business Income Tax is Suboptimal Peter B. Sorensen October 2015 TAXATION AND THE OPTIMAL CONSTRAINT ON CORPORATE DEBT FINANCE: WHY A COMPREHENSIVE BUSINESS INCOME TAX IS SUBOPTIMAL Peter Birch Sørensen Abstract: The tax bias in favour of debt finance under the corporate income tax means that corporate debt ratios exceed the socially optimal level. This creates a rationale for a general thin-capitalization rule limiting the amount of debt that qualifies for interest deductibility. This paper sets up a model of corporate finance and investment in a small open economy to identify the optimal constraint on tax-favoured debt finance, assuming that a given amount of revenue has to be raised from the corporate income tax. For plausible parameter values the socially optimal debt-asset ratio is 2-3 percentage points below the average corporate debt level currently observed. Driving the actual debt ratio down to this level through limitations on interest deductibility would generate a total welfare gain of about 5 percent of corporate tax revenue. The welfare gain would arise mainly from a fall in the social risks associated with corporate investment, but also from the cut in the corporate tax rate made possible by a broader corporate tax base. Address for correspondence: Peter Birch Sørensen University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 Copenhagen K, Denmark. E-mail: [email protected] TAXATION AND THE OPTIMAL CONSTRAINT ON CORPORATE DEBT FINANCE: WHY A COMPREHENSIVE BUSINESS INCOME TAX IS SUBOPTIMAL Peter Birch Sørensen1 1. The problem: Addressing the debt bias of the corporate income tax A conventional corporate income tax allows deductibility of interest but does not grant an allowance for the cost of equity finance. This tax bias in favour of debt is causing concern among policy makers, for two reasons. First, there is mounting evidence that the shifting of debt and interest deductions within a multinational group is a major tax planning instrument whereby multinational companies reallocate taxable profits towards low-tax jurisdictions (see, e.g., Desai, Foley and Hines (2004); Huizinga, Laeven and Nicodème (2008), Gordon (2010), and the survey by de Mooij (2011)). Second, in the wake of the recent financial crisis, there is a growing awareness that excessive use of debt finance makes companies more vulnerable to business cycle downturns and to credit crunches caused by financial instability, just as excessive gearing makes financial institutions more unstable (Keen and De Mooij (2012)). During the last two decades the international tax policy debate has focused on two alternative designs for eliminating the debt bias under the corporation tax. One option for reform is the Allowance for Corporate Equity (ACE) originally proposed by the Capital Taxes Group of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (1991) and recently recommended by the Mirrlees Review (Mirrlees et al. (2011)). The ACE system allows companies to deduct an imputed return on equity as well as interest on debt, essentially turning the corporation tax into a tax on rents. The ACE is a logical policy implication of the theoretical insight 1 I wish to thank Guttorm Schjelderup for comments on an earlier version of this paper. The paper is a further development of work originally carried out for the Norwegian government tax reform committee, presented in Sørensen (2014). I thank members of the committee and its secretariat for fruitful discussions of many of the issues involved. Any remaining shortcomings are my own responsibility. 2 that it is inoptimal to levy a source-based tax on the normal return to capital in a small open economy (Griffith, Hines and Sørensen (2010)). In recent years countries like Belgium and Italy have in fact experimented with versions of the ACE system (see Zangari (2014)), but generally policy makers have been reluctant to embrace the ACE, mainly due to the revenue loss it would imply.2 An alternative design for neutral tax treatment of debt and equity is the Comprehensive Business Income Tax (CBIT) originally described by the US Department of the Treasury (1992) and recently proposed (in a modified form) by the Swedish Corporate Tax Reform Committee (2014). In its clean version, the CBIT fully eliminates interest deductibility and turns the corporate income tax into a source-based tax on the full return to capital, regardless of the mode of finance. However, policy makers have generally shyed away from full elimination of interest deductibility for fear that it might generate capital flight and might cause severe transition problems for heavily indebted companies. The CBIT also raises difficult issues of corporate-personal tax integration and creates a need for special tax rules for deposit-taking financial institutions. Instead of pursuing ambitious reforms like the ACE or the CBIT, most OECD countries have tried to tackle the debt bias and the problem of international debt shifting in more pragmatic ways. Early policy responses to debt shifting took the form of rules against thin capitalization. Such rules typically stipulate that companies can only deduct interest on debt up to a certain percentage of total assets. Unfortunately thin capitalization rules are potentially vulnerable to manipulation of asset values through clever accounting practices or to manipulation of interest rates on intra-company loans. Recently several countries have therefore supplemented their thin capitalization rules by direct limitations on the total amount of interest a corporate entity is allowed to deduct. Typically such a cap means that the total deduction for interest expenses cannot exceed a certain percentage of the company’s EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Tax) or EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortization). Thin capitalization rules and caps on interest deductibility usually only apply to entities within a corporate group and they have mainly aimed at curbing international 2 The likely revenue loss has often been overstated in the debate on the ACE. According to the estimates by de Mooij (2012), an ACE system would involve a budgetary cost of around 15 per cent of current corporate tax revenue, on average for a selection of advanced economies. 3 profit-shifting. This paper shows that the tax distortion in favour of debt finance provides a rationale for applying such rules to all companies, as recently recommended by the Norwegian tax reform committee (2014). To drive home this point in the clearest possible manner, I will simplify the exposition by abstracting from multinational group structures.3 I present a method of identifying and quantifying the second-best optimal level of corporate debt and the welfare gain from constraining the use of debt finance. I show that the deadweight loss from the non-neutral tax treatment of debt and equity is intimately linked to the rise in risk premiums generated by the tax bias in favour of debt. In this context, the ‘risk premiums’ do not only include compensation for uncertainty; they also compensate for the costs of financial distress and the agency costs incurred by investors as a consequence of imperfect and asymmetric information. Thus the risk premiums reflect genuine welfare and resource costs. Debt finance and equity finance involve different types of risk and agency costs. According to the conventional trade-off theory of corporate finance companies weigh the various costs of equity and debt finance against each other to arrive at a privately optimal debt-equity ratio. Since the deductibility of interest allows firms to shift some of the cost of debt finance onto other taxpayers, the privately optimal level of debt exceeds the level companies would have chosen in the absence of tax. As we shall see, this excess borrowing generates a welfare-reducing rise in the social risk premium, defined as the weighted average of the pre-tax risk premiums on debt and equity. However, the deductibility of interest also serves as a shield against the corporate income tax, thereby alleviating the tax distortion to the level of real investment. To identify the socially optimal constraint on the use of debt finance, policy makers must therefore account for the following mechanisms: i) A lower corporate debt ratio will reduce the social risk premium included in the cost of corporate finance. This is welfare-improving since the initial social risk premium is inoptimally high due to excessive (tax-induced) use of debt finance. ii) Restricting the use of debt will broaden the corporate tax base, thereby allowing a cut in the corporate tax rate. This will raise welfare by stimulating investment which is initially too low due to taxation. iii) Forcing 3 Adding the possibility of internal debt shifting within multinational groups would only stregthen the case for constraints on corporate debt finance. See Egger et al. (2010) for an analysis of internal debt shifting and Møen et al. (2012) for a paper that studies internal as well as external debt shifting. 4 the corporate debt ratio below the privately optimal level will ceteris paribus increase the private cost of corporate finance. This will generate a welfare loss by reducing corporate investment. If there is no constraint on debt finance in the initial equilibrium, the welfare loss from the effect in iii) will be negligible, since a small reduction in debt will have no first-order effect on the private cost of capital when companies have initially optimized their use of debt. At the same time the mechanisms in i) and ii) will generate first-order welfare gains from a small cut in the debt ratio. Hence it will always be optimal to introduce some constraint on the use of debt. The optimal constraint on the amount of tax-favoured debt is found where the marginal welfare gains from the effects in i) and ii) are just offset by the marginal welfare loss from the mechanism in iii). The quantitative analysis in this paper suggests that, for empirically plausible parameter values, the socially optimal amount of debt qualifying for interest deductibility is far above zero. In other words, it will not be optimal to introduce a Comprehensive Business Income Tax that completely eliminates interest deductibility, even though the resulting broadening of the tax base will allow a lower corporate tax rate. According to the analysis below the preservation of some amount of interest deductibility is a more effective way of reducing the cost of capital than cutting the corporate tax rate all the way down to the level allowed by a CBIT. This is an example of second-best tax policy: the existing corporate tax system distorts the level of corporate investment as well as the pattern of corporate finance, but rather than eliminating the latter distortion altogether, it is better to accept some distortion to financing decisions if this is the most effective way of alleviating the distortion to investment decisions. For convenience the exposition below pretends that the policy maker can directly control the corporate debt ratio. In practice the government can only disallow deductibility of interest on debt exceeding a certain debt ratio (call it β max ). If companies are willing to forego interest deductions on their marginal debt, they may thus choose a debt level exceeding β max . However, the analysis in this paper indicates that the socially optimal value of β max is lower than the debt ratio which the representative company would prefer under unlimited interest deductibility but higher than the debt ratio it would choose if debt and equity were granted equal tax treatment at the margin. Hence we may expect 5 that the representative profit-maximizing company will voluntarily choose the debt ratio β max when this maximum debt ratio qualifying for interest deductibility is set optimally.4 The rest of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 presents a model of corporate finance and investment to derive the cost of capital and the privately optimal pattern of finance for companies faced with asymmetric tax treatment of debt and equity. Section 3 illustrates the efficiency loss from the corporate income tax, including the deadweight loss from the tax bias in favour of debt finance and the loss from lower domestic investment. Section 4 derives the second-best optimal debt-to-asset ratio of the corporate sector, assuming that the government has to raise a given amount of revenue from the corporate income tax. Section 5 calibrates the model and offers numerical estimates of the optimal level of debt and the welfare gain from the optimal constraint on debt finance. In section 6 I summarize the main findings of the paper and discuss some limitations of the analysis. 2. A model of corporate finance and investment in a small open economy This section sets up a simple model of corporate finance and investment. I focus on a small open economy facing an exogenous risk-free world interest rate and risk premiums on corporate debt and equity that depend on the debt ratio chosen by the representative domestic company. Production requires the input of perfectly mobile capital and a domestic fixed factor which is immobile across borders. The model uses the following notation: ρ = user cost of capital δ = real rate of economic depreciation c = real private cost of capital cs = real social cost of capital r = risk-free real interest rate π = rate of inflation pd = risk premium in the interest rate on corporate debt pe = risk premium in the required return on equity 4 See section 5.2.2 for an elaboration of this point. 6 q = real private cost of corporate finance β = debt-asset ratio τ = corporate income tax rate K = capital stock invested in the domestic economy L = domestic fixed factor of production w = price of domestic fixed factor Π = total after-tax profit R = corporate income tax revenue The total real output of the representative company is given by the concave production function F (K, L). As a benchmark, I assume that the tax code allows companies to deduct the true economic depreciation of their assets from the corporate income tax base. The real after-tax profit of the representative competitive firm may then be written as Π = (1 − τ ) [F (K, L) − wL − δK] − qK, FK > 0, FKK < 0, FL > 0, FLL < 0, (2.1) FKL > 0, where the subscripts denote partial derivatives. A key feature of the model is the relationship between the individual company’s debt ratio and its cost of finance. Following Boadway (1987) and numerous other writers, I assume that the risk premiums in the required returns on a company’s debt and equity depend on its debt-to-asset ratio. Specifically, the company’s real cost of finance is Cost of equity finance q = (1 − β) [r + pe (β)] Cost of debt finance + β {r + pd (β) − τ [r + pd (β) + π]}. (2.2) According to (2.2) the cost of finance is a weighted average of the cost of equity finance and the cost of debt finance, with weights determined by the debt-asset ratio. The cost of debt finance is reduced by the fact that the company may deduct its nominal interest payments from the corporate tax base. It is reasonable to assume that a company starting out with zero debt will face a zero risk premium on debt initially, but as it starts to borrow, the risk premium will gradually become positive and rise at an increasing rate as the debt ratio increases, reflecting the growing risk that a more indebted firm will not be able to service (all of) its debt. I therefore assume that the risk premium on debt, pd (β), has 7 the following properties: pd (0) = p′d (0) = 0, p′d (β) > 0 for β > 0, p′′d (β) > 0. (2.3) The required risk premium on equity - which must also compensate shareholders for the agency costs of controlling the firm and its management - is given by the function pe (β). The shareholders’ agency costs of monitoring the firm may be reduced if the task of monitoring can be shared with the debtholders, as emphasized by Jensen (1986). Up to a certain point the required risk premium on equity may therefore decline as the company increases its debt-asset ratio. However, as the debt ratio grows, the risk of bankruptcy becomes a growing concern. Sooner or later this will generate conflicts of interest between shareholders and debtholders, as argued by Jensen and Meckling (1976). Beyond a certain debt ratio the required premium on equity will therefore start to increase at a growing rate as shareholders face accelerating risks and costs of controlling the firm. Formally, these mechanisms mean that p′e (β) will be negative at low levels of β, but positive at high values of β, and that p′′e (β) > 0. Consequently, even if debt were not favoured by the tax system, a company seeking to minimize its cost of finance would want to choose a positive debt ratio between zero and one. The cost of finance in (2.2) may be rewritten as q = r + p (β) − βτ (r + π) , (2.4) where p (β) is the total private (i.e., after-tax) risk premium defined as p (β) ≡ (1 − β) pe (β) + β (1 − τ ) pd (β) . (2.5) In order to derive an explicit analytical solution for the company’s optimal debt ratio, I will work with a second-order Taylor approximation of the expression for p (β), where the Taylor expansion is made around the cost-minimizing debt ratio β that the company would choose in the absence of tax. In section 1 in the appendix I show that such an approximation yields p (β) ≈ p β − τ a β − β + b β−β 2 2 , p β ≡ 1 − β pe β + β (1 − τ ) pd β , a ≡ pd β + βp′d β > 0, 8 b ≡ p′′ β , (2.6) where a is the marginal risk premium on debt at the debt level β. A necessary condition for profit maximization is that the company minimizes its cost of finance. Using (2.4) and (2.6), one can show that the first-order condition for minimization of q with respect to β implies β=β+ τ (r + π + a) . b (2.7) From (2.4) and (2.6) I find the second-order condition for a cost minimum to be d2 q/ (dβ)2 = b > 0. Since a is also positive (see (2.6)), it follows from (2.7) that the (marginal) tax shield provided by debt finance - captured by the term τ (r + π + a) - induces the company to choose a higher debt ratio than the ratio β it would have preferred in the absence of tax. Three features of the solution in (2.7) should be noted. First, we see from the definition of a that the marginal value of the tax shield includes the tax saving on the intra-marginal debt occurring when the risk premium increases due to a rise in the company’s debt. Second, β is not only the debt ratio that would prevail in a hypothetical world without taxes; in the present model it is also the rate of indebtedness that would be chosen under a CBIT or an ACE with neutral tax treatment of debt and equity. Third, β is the marginal as well as the average debt ratio. Equations (2.4), (2.5) and (2.7) determine the company’s cost of finance, given that it chooses the privately optimal combination of equity and debt. The firm then adjusts its capital stock so as to maximize its profit given by (2.1). Using (2.4), (2.5) and the first-order condition ∂Π/∂K = 0, we obtain the following expression for the company’s cost of capital, defined as the required real pre-tax return on the marginal investment: c ≡ FK − δ = q (1 − β) [τ r + pe (β)] − βτ π = r + βpd (β) + . 1−τ 1−τ (2.8) Profit maximization also requires that the marginal product of the domestic fixed factor be equal to its price, i.e., FL = w. 3. The deadweight loss from the corporate income tax It is clear from (2.8) that the corporate income tax distorts the cost of capital. The corporate tax system also creates a deadweight loss by distorting corporate financing decisions. More precisely, the tax system increases the risk premiums that companies 9 must pay. These risk premiums include real resource costs in the form of agency and bankruptcy costs. The deadweight loss from tax distortions to financing decisions may therefore be measured by the increase in the risk premiums caused by the tax system. I will now demonstrate this proposition. 3.1. The risk premium and the deadweight loss from the tax bias against equity The impact of a change in the debt ratio β on social welfare is captured by its impact on the total rent to society generated by the investment undertaken by firms. The total rent (W ) is W = F (K, L) − [r + ps (β) + δ] K, (3.1) where ps (β) is the social (i.e., pre-tax) risk premium included in the cost of finance, defined as ps (β) ≡ (1 − β) pe (β) + βpd (β) . (3.2) Using the definitions in (2.1), (2.2), and (3.2), we can write the total rent in (3.1) as the sum of after-tax profits, the income accruing to the domestic fixed factor (wL), and total corporate tax revenue (R): W = Π + wL + R. (3.3) The revenue from the corporate income tax is R = τ {F (K, L) − δK − wL − β [r + pd (β) + π] K} . (3.4) When the debt ratio β increases by a small amount, the after-tax profits and the income of the fixed factor will be unaffected. The reason is that, when firms have optimized their debt ratios, a small increase in β will have no first-order effect on the cost of capital and the amount of investment, since the cost increase caused by higher risk premiums will be just offset by the tax savings from higher interest deductions. Hence it follows from (3.3) that the effect of a small increase in the debt ratio β on total rents may be measured by the resulting change in tax revenue. When β increases by one unit, the per-period loss of corporate tax revenue (∆R) stemming from larger interest deductions will be ∆R = τ [r + π + pd (β) + βp′d (β)] K. 10 (3.5) The term [r + π + pd (β)] K in (3.5) is the interest payment on the additional debt, while the term βp′d (β) K captures the increase in the interest payments on the pre-existing debt caused by the rise in the risk premium on debt induced by the higher debt ratio. Since ∆R reflects the fall in total rents, it is a measure of the marginal deadweight loss (M DW L) from the increase in β. When the firm has optimized its initial debt ratio, it follows from (2.6) and (2.7) that τ (r + π) = b β − β − τ a = p′ (β). Inserting this into (3.5), we find that M DW L (β) = {p′ (β) + τ [pd (β) + βp′d (β)]} K. (3.6) According to (3.6), the marginal deadweight loss from a rise in the debt ratio (measured per unit of capital) equals the sum of the increase in the private after-tax risk premium, p′ (β), and the loss of corporate tax revenue following from the higher risk premium on debt, τ [pd (β) + βp′d (β)]. From (2.5) and (3.2) it follows that p′ (β) + τ [pd (β) + βp′d (β)] = dps (β) /dβ, so from (3.6) we get M DW L (β) = dps (β) K. dβ (3.7) In other words, the marginal deadweight loss per unit of capital is simply equal to the rise in the social risk premium defined in (3.2). Recalling that β ∗ is the cost-minimizing debt ratio in the absence of tax while β is the corresponding ratio in the presence of tax, we obtain the following first-order approximation to the total deadweight loss (T DW L) caused by the tax distortion to financing decisions: β T DW L (β) = β dps (β) Kdβ = ps (β) − ps β dβ MDW L (β) dβ = β K. (3.8) β According to (3.8) the total increase in the social risk premium caused by the tax system provides a measure of the total efficiency loss from the tax distortion to corporate financing decisions. This result is intuitive, since the rise in the social risk premium reflects the welfare loss from a distortion to the allocation of risk and higher agency and bankruptcy costs. 3.2. Illustrating the deadweight loss from the corporate income tax Drawing on the above analysis, figure 1 illustrates the distortions caused by the taxation of the representative firm. The horizontal axis measures the total stock of capital invested 11 in the firm, and the vertical axis measures its cost of capital. The downward-sloping curve K (c + δ) indicates the firm’s demand for capital which is a decreasing function of the user cost of capital, c + δ. The capital demand curve (which is not necessarily linear) reflects the (declining) marginal productivity of capital, so the total area under the curve K (c + δ) measures the total output of the firm. Figure 1 includes three measures of the cost of capital. The first one, c, is the private cost of capital given by eq. (2.8). Faced with this ‘hurdle’ rate of return, the firm will install the capital stock K0 . The second measure, c∗ , is the cost of capital that would prevail in the absence of taxation. It is found from (2.4) and (2.8) by setting β = β and τ = 0, yielding c∗ = r + ps β , (3.9) since it follows from (2.6) and (3.2) that p β = ps β for τ = 0. In a hypothetical no-tax world where the cost of capital would be given by (3.9), the firm would install the capital stock K ∗ indicated in figure 1. Finally, we have the measure cs which is the social cost of capital in the presence of taxation, defined as cs = r + ps (β) . (3.10) This is the marginal cost of capital to society, consisting of the international risk-free interest rate plus the social risk premium ps (β) implied by the actual debt ratio β chosen by the firm. Note that the social risk premium ps (β) includes the added agency and bankruptcy costs caused by the additional debt β − β induced by the tax system. From (3.8), (3.9) and (3.10) we see that the area B in figure 1 is Area B = (cs − c∗ ) K0 = ps (β) − ps β K0 = T DW L (β) . (3.11) Thus area B measures the total deadweight loss caused by the tax bias against equity finance. In addition, the corporate income tax drives up the private cost of capital c for any given value of the social risk premium. On the vertical axis in figure 1 this increase in the required return on investment is measured by the distance c − cs which represents the effective marginal corporate tax wedge. It generates an additional deadweight loss by 12 discouraging investment, thereby reducing total real income. If production takes place under constant returns to scale, the average return to capital equals the marginal return. The marginal effective tax rate will then coicide with the average effective tax rate, and the total corporate tax revenue collected from the firm will equal the area C in figure 1. Figure 1. The deadweight loss from the corporate income tax in a small open economy The efficiency loss from the fall in investment caused by the excess risk premium cs − c∗ and the marginal corporate tax wedge c − cs is given by the familiar Harberger triangle A in figure 1. Thus the total deadweight loss generated by the corporate income tax equals the sum of the areas A and B. Restricting the use of debt finance will tend to reduce area B by lowering the social risk premium (and hence cs ), but driving β below the privately optimal level will also tend to increase the private cost of capital c, thereby expanding the area of the Harberger triangle A. Finding the optimal value of β involves a trade-off between these offsetting welfare effects. I will now derive a formula that will allow us to characterize and quantify the socially optimal corporate debt ratio. 13 4. The socially optimal corporate debt ratio The optimal debt ratio is the value of β that will maximize the total rent to society given by (3.1). Suppose the government must raise a fixed amount of revenue from the corporate income tax. A cut in the debt ratio β will then allow a cut in the corporate tax rate τ . Defining the user cost of capital as ρ ≡ c + δ and applying the implicit function theorem to the revenue constraint (3.4), one can show that τ r + π + pd (β) + βp′d (β) + dτ = dβ A 1 − τ η ∂c ρ η≡− dK ρ , dρ K ηA ρ ∂c ∂β , (4.1) ∂τ A ≡ c − β [r + π + pd (β)] , where η is the numerical user cost elasticity of capital demand. When choosing the optimal value of β, the policy maker must account for the relationship between β and τ given by (4.1). From (3.1) the first-order condition dW/dβ = 0 for the maximization of total rent with respect to the debt ratio may then be written as Effect i) p′s (β) + η Effect ii) c − cs c+δ Effect iii) ∂c dτ +η ∂τ dβ c − cs c+δ ∂c = 0, ∂β (4.2) where we recall from (3.10) that cs = r + ps (β) is the social cost of capital. In the normal case we have ∂c/∂τ > 0, and the firm’s second-order condition for minimization of c with respect to β implies that ∂c/∂β < 0 when β is below its privately optimal level. Given the plausible parameter values presented in the next section, we also have dτ /dβ > 0, as one would expect. With this in mind, we can interpret the optimum condition (4.2). The first term on the LHS is the welfare gain from the fall in the social risk premium induced by a marginal fall in β. The second term captures the welfare gain from the rise in investment generated by the cut in the corporate tax rate made possible as the lower debt ratio broadens the corporate tax base. Higher investment raises social welfare because the marginal pre-tax rate of return to investment (c) exceeds the social cost of capital (cs ), due to the corporate tax wedge between these two rates of return. The third term on the LHS of (4.2) reflects the welfare loss from the fall in investment occurring as the debt ratio is driven below the level that would minimize the private cost of finance to companies. 14 We see that the terms i), ii) and iii) appearing on the LHS of (4.2) correspond to the three effects of a lower debt ratio explained in the introductory section. As already noted, the effect iii) will be zero when the economy starts out from an equilibrium without any constraint on debt finance, since profit maximization will then imply that ∂c/∂β = 0. Hence it will always be optimal to impose some (small) constraint on the use of debt finance since the first two terms in (4.2) are positive. But as the debt ratio is forced below the value of β satisfying the private optimum condition ∂c/∂β = 0, ∂c/∂β will turn negative and will become numerically larger as β is futher reduced. At the same time the efficiency gains from further drops in the risk premium and in the corporate tax rate will diminish as β and τ are lowered. The socially optimal value of β is found where the sum of the positive marginal welfare effects i) and ii) is just offset by the negative marginal welfare effect iii). If this point were not reached until β = 0, a Comprehensive Business Income Tax allowing no interest deductibility at all would be optimal. But as the quantitative analysis in the next section suggests, the socially optimal amount of debt qualifying for interest deductibility will most likely be far above zero. 5. Quantitative analysis 5.1. Calibration I will now illustrate how the model may be calibrated for the purpose of quantitative analysis. To estimate the effects of a change in the debt ratio on private and social risk premiums we must quantify the parameters a, b and β appearing in (2.6). To this end I will use the following second-order approximation for the risk premium on debt which satisfies the plausible assumptions made in (2.3): pd (β) ≈ k 2 β , 2 k > 0. (5.1) Suppose the observed corporate debt ratio in the economy’s initial equilibrium with no restriction on interest deductibility is β 0 and that the associated initial risk premium on corporate debt is pd0 . From (5.1) we can then find the value of the parameter k that generates a realistic initial risk premium on debt, given the observed initial debt ratio: pd0 = k 2 β 2 0 =⇒ 15 k= 2pd0 . β 20 (5.2) From the definition of a given in (2.6) and the approximation in (5.1) it follows that a ≡ pd β + βp′d β = 3pd β 2 =⇒ 2 a = 1.5kβ . (5.3) The debt ratio β that would prevail in the absence of tax (or with neutral tax treatment of debt and equity) is not directly observable, so it is calibrated to ensure that the initial model equilibrium reproduces the observed initial debt ratio β 0 , given a realistic value of the semi-elasticity of the debt-asset ratio with respect to the corporate tax rate. Using (2.7), we find the semi-elasticity at the initial debt ratio to be: ε≡ ∂β 1 r+π+a . = ∂τ β 0 β 0b (5.4) Inserting (5.4) in the condition (2.7) for the firm’s optimal choice of capital structure, we get β = β 0 (1 − τ 0 ε) . (5.5) The parameter ε has been estimated in numerous empirical studies. Inserting an estimate for ε and the observed initial debt ratio β 0 as well as the initial corporate tax rate τ 0 into (5.5), one obtains an estimate for β. This may be inserted in (5.3) to provide an estimate for a. Given the resulting value of a, the value of b may then be derived from (5.4), assuming plausible rates of interest and inflation. To apply the formula (4.2) determining the socially optimal value of β, we also need an estimate of the social risk premium ps (β) and its derivative. In section 1 of the appendix I show that our second-order approximations (2.6) and (5.1) combined with the assumption of optimal financing decisions imply that the social risk premium is given by ps (β) ≈ ps β + bs β −β 2 2 , bs = b + 3τ kβ. (5.6) The estimates of b, k and β may thus be used to derive an estimate of the parameter bs in (5.6). From (5.6) and (3.11) we may then estimate the size of the welfare loss caused by the asymmetric tax treatment of debt and equity. Measured as a share of the total corporate tax revenue specified in (3.4), the welfare loss in the initial equilibrium is ps (β 0 ) − ps β K0 T DW L (β 0 ) = . R τ 0 [F (K0 , L) − δK0 − wL − β (r + pd0 + π) K0 ] (5.7) I assume that the production function takes the Cobb-Douglas form F (K, L) = K α L1−α , 0 < α < 1, and without loss of generality I normalize the input of the domestic fixed factor 16 at L = 1. The firm’s first-order condition FL = w then implies that F (K0 , L) − wL = αK0α , and the first-order condition (2.8) yields FK = αK0α−1 = c0 + δ. Using these results along with (5.6) and dividing through by K0 in (5.7), I get 2 bs β0 − β T DW L (β 0 ) 2 = . R τ 0 [c0 − β 0 (r + pd0 + π)] (5.8) Furthermore, by taking total differentials in (3.1) around the initial equilibrium, exploiting the firm’s first-order condition FK = c0 + δ, and using the notation ps0 ≡ ps (β 0 ), I obtain the following approximation to the social welfare gain from a reduction in the corporate debt ratio from β 0 to β, measured relative to corporate tax revenue, Welfare gain from fall Welfare gain from fall in cost of capital in social risk premium dW = R (c0 − r − ps0 ) η (c0 − c) c0 + δ , τ 0 [c0 − β 0 (r + pd0 + π)] ps (β 0 ) − ps (β) + (5.9) where c0 − r − ps0 is the rent created by an additional unit of capital, starting from the initial equilibrium. Recalling that ρ ≡ c + δ, the first-order condition FK = αK α−1 = ρ implies that the user cost elasticity of capital demand is given by η≡− 1 dK ρ = . dρ K 1−α (5.10) The expressions for the partials ∂c/∂τ and ∂c/∂β appearing in the key formula (4.2) are derived in the appendix. The other important derivative dτ /dβ appearing in (4.2) may then be found from (4.1). Table 1 provides the complete list of parameters needed to derive quantitative estimates from the model. The parameters in the first column are chosen exogenously to reflect empirically plausible values (see below). Once these parameter values are given, the calibrated parameters in the second column may be found by following the calibration methods explained above. This procedure ensures that the calibrated values of a, b and β ∗ actually generate (via the firm’s first-order condition (2.7)) the observed value of the initial debt ratio β 0 as an endogenous outcome in the initial equilibrium. 17 Table 1. Benchmark calibration Exogenous parameters Calibrated parameters r 0.025 k 0.12 π 0.02 a 0.038 pe0 0.05 b 0.5534 pd0 0.015 bs 0.598 τ0 0.27 η 1.5 β0 0.5 β 0.4595 ε 0.3 p0 0.0305 δ 0.06 ps0 0.0325 α 0.333 ps β 0.032 Note: β 0 , pe0 , pd0 , p0 and ps0 are the initial debt ratio and the initial risk premiums, respectively. A key parameter is the semi-elasticity of debt with respect to the corporate tax rate. According to the survey by de Mooij and Ederveen (2008), a plausible value for this semi-elasticity is ε = 0.3. In an updated meta-analysis of a large number of empirical studies, de Mooij (2011) finds an average value of ε closer to 0.2, but with a tendency for studies based on more recent data to find higher elasticities. Against this background, I have chosen to set ε = 0.3 in the benchmark calibration of the model. The rates of interest and inflation stated in table 1 are ‘normal’ values for most small Western European economies. The initial 1.5 percent risk premium on corporate debt (pd0 ) assumed in the table is a plausible average value for corporate bonds with intermediate maturity and good ratings.5 The assumption of an initial 5 percent risk premium on equity (pe0 ) is based on the empirical survey by Dimson et al. (2008) of historical long run equity risk premiums in Western countries. These values for pe0 and pd0 are introduced for the purpose of calibrating the parameters b and k so that the model endogenously generates realistic risk premiums in the initial equilibrium. 5 For example, according to table 1 in Chen et al. (2007), the difference between the average yield on U.S. corporate bonds with an AA-rating and medium maturity (7-15 years) and the average yield on comparable maturity treasury bonds from 1995 to 2003 was 146.27 basis points. For AAA-rated corporate bonds the yield spread was 82.44 basis points, and for A-rated bonds it was 177.68 basis points. 18 The 27 percent corporate tax rate assumed in table 1 corresponds to the GDPweighted average corporate tax rate in the EU in 2014 (see Pomerleau (2014, table 4)). According to estimates by the European Central Bank (2012), the ratio of debt to total assets of non-financial corporations in the euro zone was 46 percent in the second quarter of 2009 and 43 percent in the first quarter of 2011. However, since the debt-asset ratio of financial corporations is considerably higher, table 1 assumes an initial debt-asset ratio of 50 percent. The assumed annual real depreciation rate δ = 0.06 is a rough average across different types of real capital. When a depreciation rate of this magnitude is plugged into a standard Solow growth model (and combined with plausible values of the other parameters of the Solow model), the model predicts a realistic speed of income convergence across countries (see Sørensen and Whitta-Jacobsen (2010, ch. 5). Finally, given our model assumptions the capital income share of total output will equal the elasticity of output with respect to capital input (α). A capital income share around 1/3 fits well with the historical experience of Western countries, so table 1 assumes α = 0.333. According to (5.10), this implies a user cost elasticity of capital demand (η) equal to 1.5.6 5.2. Results 5.2.1. The deadweight loss from the tax bias against equity With the benchmark calibration described above, we can offer an estimate of the total deadweight loss caused by the non-neutral tax treatment of debt and equity, measured as a fraction of total corporate tax revenue (T DW L/R). From (5.8) we find T DW L/R = 0.0482. In other words, the deadweight loss amounts to almost 5 percent of corporate tax revenue. From (5.6), (5.7) and (5.8) it follows that the numerator in the latter formula measures the deadweight loss relative to the initial corporate capital stock (T DW L/K0 ). With our benchmark calibration this number is 0.049 percent. This is very close to the estimates provided by Weichenrieder and Klautke (2008) who found (using a different method) that the total deadweight loss from the tax distortion to corporate financing decisions varies between 0.05 and 0.15 percent of the corporate capital stock. 6 This value of η is higher than the user cost elasticity found in most of the empirical studies surveyed by Hassett and Hubbard (2002), but as we shall see in the next section, the quantitative results from our model are not very sensitive to the value of η. 19 In recent years the revenue from the corporate income tax has fluctuated around 3 percent of GDP in most Western European countries. Given this revenue share of GDP, our estimate of the deadweight loss from the financial distortion amounts to about 0.14 percent of GDP. 5.2.2. Effects of the optimal thin-capitalization rule The benchmark calibration of the model also delivers the results reported in the first column of table 2.7 The optimal limit on debt finance reduces the debt-asset ratio of the corporate sector by 2.6 percentage points. The second-best optimal debt ratio β = 0.474 is seen to be higher than the debt ratio β = 0.46 which would be chosen if debt and equity were treated equally by the tax code. We may therefore assume that profitmaximizing companies will not choose a debt ratio exceeding β = 0.474 if debt beyond that level is treated on par with equity for tax purposes. At the same time, since the debt limit β = 0.473 is lower than the debt ratio β 0 = 0.5 that would maximize profits if all interest payments were fully deductible, an optimizing company will want to exploit the opportunity for interest deductibility to the maximum possible extent by incurring a debt ratio equal to β = 0.473. Hence we may expect that, by denying interest deductions for debt beyond a certain level in the interval between β 0 and β, the government can also induce the representative company to choose that level of debt, as argued in the introductory section. A model simulation reveals that, at the optimal corporate debt ratio implied by the benchmark calibration, total corporate interest expenses make up 31.9 percent of the total nominal Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT ) generated by the corporate sector. For comparison, total interest payments amount to 34.2 percent of EBIT in the initial unconstrained equilibrium. The optimal constraint on interest deductibility is thus fairly modest. The broadening of the corporate tax base allows a 1.5 percentage point cut in the corporate tax rate. Since the forced reduction in the debt ratio and the resulting increase 7 To derive the optimal constraint on debt finance from formula (4.2) and the resulting welfare gain from formula (5.9), I use an iterative solution algorithm implemented in an Excel spreadsheet available on request. 20 in the private cost of corporate finance is moderate, the fall in the corporate tax rate is sufficient to generate a small drop in the cost of capital, thereby inducing firms to increase their capital stock by 0.8 percent.8 According to the second row from the bottom of table 2, the optimal thin capitalization rule generates a total welfare gain of 5 percent of the revenue from the corporate income tax in the benchmark calibration. Some of this gain is due to the increase in the capital stock, but from the third row from the bottom of the table we see that most of the gain (4.2 percent of tax revenue) arises from the fall in the risk premium induced by the smaller distortion to the choice between debt and equity. Thus the optimal constraint on debt finance eliminates a very large part of the total deadweight loss from the financial distortion (which amounts to 4.8 percent of tax revenue, as shown in the bottom row of table 1) even though it only eliminates a little more than half of the initial ‘excess’ debt β 0 − β. This result reflects that the welfare loss from the financial distortion increases with the square of the difference between β and β (see the numerator of (5.8)). As mentioned earlier, some empirical studies have found a lower semi-elasticity of corporate debt with respect to the tax rate than the value of 0.3 assumed in the benchmark calibration. If the semi-elasticity is only 0.2, and if the parameters β, a, b and k are recalibrated so that the model still reproduces the initial debt ratio and risk premiums stated in table 1, we obtain the results shown in the second column in table 2. Not surprisingly, we see that the welfare gain from the optimal thin capitalization rule is now smaller, because a lower tax elasticity of debt implies lower initial distortions to corporate financing decisions (i.e., a smaller difference between the average initial debt ratio and the average debt ratio that would be optimal in the absence of tax). The third column of table 2 reports the simulation results obtained when the capital income share is 0.2 rather than 0.333. According to (5.10) the user cost elasticity of capital demand will then be 1.25 rather than the elasticity of 1.5 assumed in the benchmark calibration. As one would expect, the increase in the capital stock is now more modest, because capital demand is less sensitive to changes in the cost of capital. However, the overall effects of the optimal thin capitalization rule do not change very much. The reason 8 Recall from (2.8) that the relationship between the cost of finance (q) and the cost of capital (c) is c = q/ (1 − τ ). 21 is that the net change in the cost of capital for the corporate sector as a whole is quite modest (due to the offsetting effects of the cuts in β and τ ) which makes the sensitivity of capital demand to the cost of capital less important. Table 2. Effects of the optimal thin capitalization rule Benchmark Low debt Low user Low initial Low initial High initial calibration elasticity cost elasticity tax rate debt ratio debt ratio (β 0 =0.5) (ε=0.2) (η=1.25) (τ 0 =0.2) (β 0 =0.4) (β 0 =0.6) β 0.474 0.483 0.473 0.481 0.379 0.569 β∗ 0.46 0.473 0.46 0.47 0.368 0.551 ∆β -0.026 -0.017 -0.027 -0.019 -0.021 -0.031 ∆τ -0.015 -0.011 -0.016 -0.009 -0.01 -0.025 ∆K/K 0.008 0.006 0.007 0.004 0.006 0.011 W G (∆ps )1 0.042 0.028 0.043 0.034 0.025 0.076 W G/R2 0.05 0.033 0.05 0.038 0.031 0.087 T DW L/R3 0.048 0.032 0.048 0.039 0.029 0.088 1. Welfare gain from fall in social risk premium (as a fraction of corporate tax revenue). 2. Total welfare gain (as a fraction of corporate tax revenue). 3. Total deadweight loss from initial distortion to debt-equity choice (as a fraction of corporate tax revenue). A ∆-prescript denotes a change in the relevant variable. The fourth column of table 2 shows that the welfare gain from the optimal constraint on debt finance will be smaller if the initial corporate tax rate is only 20 percent rather than the 27 percent assumed in the benchmark scenario. This is intuitive, since a lower initial tax rate implies lower initial distortions to financing and investment decisions. The last two columns indicate that the welfare gain from the optimal thin capitalization rule is fairly sensitive to the initial debt level. With an initial debt ratio of 40 percent, the welfare gain is only 3.2 percent of corporate tax revenue, whereas it is 8.7 percent of tax revenue if the initial debt ratio is 60 percent. Again, this is intuitive since the tax discrimination in favour of debt creates smaller distortions when debt is a less important source of finance. 22 Apart from illustrating the importance of the initial degree of indebtedness, table 2 leaves the impression that the optimal thin capitalization rule is not particularly sensitive to uncertainty about parameter values. 6. Conclusions and discussion According to the analysis in this paper the current tax bias in favour of debt finance makes it second-best optimal to impose a limit on the debt-asset ratio of companies even if they do not have the opportunity to engage in international profit-shifting. Implicitly, the analysis also provides a rationale for a general cap on deductible interest expenses. For plausible parameter values derived from international empirical studies, the analysis indicates that the socially optimal debt ratio is about 2-3 percentage points below the current average corporate debt ratio observed in Europe. The analysis also suggests that the socially optimal debt ratio may be implemented through the voluntary financial choices of companies by denying deductibility of interest on debt beyond the socially optimal level. At the same time the analysis clearly suggests that complete elimination of interest deductibility - as a Comprehensive Business Income Tax would imply - is not an optimal second-best tax policy. Reducing the average debt ratio to the socially optimal level would allow a cut in the corporate tax rate of 1-2 percentage points and would generate a net welfare gain of about 3-5 percent of corporate tax revenue, according to the model estimates. The bulk of the welfare gain would arise from a fall in the risk premium included in the cost of corporate finance. Indeed, the drop in the risk premium induced by the optimal thin capitalization rule would eliminate around four fifths of the total deadweight loss from the current tax distortion to the choice between debt and equity. The remaining part of the welfare gain from the optimal constraint on debt finance would stem from the fall in the corporate tax rate made possible through the broadening of the corporate tax base. My modelling of corporate financing decisions relied on the so-called trade-off theory of capital structure. According to this theory companies trade off the marginal tax benefit from additional debt finance against the resulting increase in the costs of financial distress. The model allowed for the possibility that companies will want to issue a certain amount 23 of debt even in the absence of interest deductibility because the need to service debt may help to discipline corporate managers, thereby reducing the shareholders’ agency costs of monitoring the firm. Importantly, the model implies that companies will make a socially optimal trade-off between the marginal costs and benefits of debt in the absence of taxation. However, once interest deductibility is allowed, corporate debt ratios will rise above the efficient level. An alternative theory of corporate finance is the so-called pecking-order theory originally developed by Myers and Majluf (1984) and Myers (1984). These authors stressed that asymmetric information between managers and outside investors give rise to an adverse selection problem where investors may interpret new issues of shares or debt as a sign that the company is in trouble and in need of liquidity. A company’s use of external finance may thus lead to a fall in its market value. To the extent possible, companies will therefore prefer to finance investment out of retained earnings. If they need additional capital, companies will generally prefer debt over new share issues, because share prices will react more negatively when firms use new equity rather than debt finance, since then investors do not only have to worry about the risk of default, but also about the entire distribution of returns to investment.9 The pecking-order theory only attaches a second-order importance to the tax benefits of debt finance. Further, as noted by Gordon (2010), this theory implies that corporate debt ratios may be inefficiently low due to the adverse selection problem that may lead stock markets to punish the issue of debt. As Brealy, Myers and Allen (2009) explain, the trade-off theory and the peckingorder theory of corporate finance both have strengths and weaknesses when it comes to explaining the details of corporate financing patterns and their variations across firms and industries. In the present paper I have chosen to work with a version of the tradeoff theory because the pecking-order theory does not lead to a well-defined target for a company’s debt-equity mix. However, in so far as adverse selection problems in capital markets would lead to an inoptimally low use of debt finance in the absence of tax, the analysis in the present paper may overstate the benefits of constraints on corporate debt finance and/or interest deductibility. 9 Another way of explaining the firm’s preference for debt over new equity is that a manager who believes that the stock market undervalues the company’s shares will want to finance new profitable investment by debt rather than new shares to avoid “giving away a free gift” to new investors. 24 The analysis in this paper does not allow for the fact that the tax-favored status of debt under the corporate income tax may be (partly) offset by tax favours for equity income under the personal income tax. In Sørensen (2014) I extend the model presented above by introducing a distinction between ‘large’ companies financing investment via the international capital market and ‘small’ companies with controlling shareholders subject to domestic personal income tax. This allows an analysis of the effects of introducing domestic tax relief for dividends and capital gains at the personal shareholder level. For plausible parameter values it turns out that such domestic shareholder tax relief does not affect the size of the welfare gain from the optimal thin capitalization rule very much. This result reflects that the bulk of corporate finance is supplied by international investors and tax-exempt institutional investors. However, the heterogeneity of firms and industries means that the socially optimal debt ratios of individual firms are likely to differ substantially. For example, within the framework of the trade-off theory of finance, firms that rely more heavily on tangible and relatively safe assets will have higher optimal debt ratios, because their marginal costs of financial distress at any given debt ratio will be lower. The extended model presented in Sørensen (2014) does allow for some heterogeneity across large and small companies, but it does not capture all of the real-world diversity in the capacity for debt finance across firms. This limitation of the model suggests that a general thin capitalization rule applied to all firms (or a general cap on interest deductibility) should be more lenient than the optimal debt ratio derived from the quantitative version of the model presented in this paper. 25 TECHNICAL APPENDIX 1. Approximations to risk premiums The private after-tax risk premium included in the cost of corporate finance is p (β) ≡ (1 − β) pe (β) + β (1 − τ ) pd (β) . (A.1) A second-order Taylor approximation of this expression around β = β ∗ yields dp β dβ p (β) ≈ p β + β −β + 1 d2 p β 2 (dβ)2 β −β 2 , (A.2) where dp β = (1 − τ ) pd β − pe β + 1 − β p′e β + β (1 − τ ) p′d β , dβ dp2 β (dβ)2 = 2 (1 − τ ) p′d β − p′e β + 1 − β p′′e β + β (1 − τ ) p′′d β . (A.3) (A.4) The social risk premium is ps (β) ≡ (1 − β) pe (β) + βpd (β) . (A.5) In the absence of tax (τ = 0), private and social risk premiums would coincide, and firms would minimize their cost of finance by minimizing the expression in (A.5), implying the first-order condition dps β /dβ ≡ 0 =⇒ pd β − pe β + 1 − β p′e β + βp′d β = 0. (A.6) Inserting (A.6) into (A.3), we get dp β ≡ −τ a, dβ a ≡ pd β + βp′d β . (A.7) Moreover, defining b≡ d2 p β (dβ)2 , (A.8) and inserting (A.7) and (A.8) into (A.2), we obtain p (β) ≈ p β − τ a β − β + 26 b β−β 2 2 , (A.9) as stated in (2.6) in section 2. Further, by using (A.6), we can write the second-order Taylor approximation to the social risk premium (A.5) around β = β as ps (β) ≈ ps β + 1 d2 ps β 2 (dβ)2 β−β 2 , (A.10) where d2 ps β 2 = 2 p′d β − p′e β (dβ) From (A.4), (A.8), and (A.11) it follows that d2 ps β (dβ)2 + 1 − β p′′e β + βp′′d β . = b + τ 2p′d β + βp′′d β . (A.11) (A.12) In section 5.1 we introduced the second-order approximation k 2 β . 2 pd (β) ≈ (A.13) Using (A.12) and (A.13), we may therefore write (A.10) as ps (β) ≈ ps β + bs β −β 2 2 , bs ≡ b + 3τ kβ. (A.14) Eq. (A.14) is seen to be identical to eq. (5.6) in the main text. Note from (A.1), (A.5) and (A.13) that ps β = p β + τ βpd β k 3 = p β +τ β . 2 (A.15) When calibrating the model, I use (A.15) and the specification of bs stated in (A.14) to ensure consistency between the approximations made in (A.9), (A.13) and (A.14). 2. 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