Regulators and Redskins
Bentley Coffey, Patrick A. McLaughlin, Robert D. Tollison
LAURA AVINO
MARCH 10, 2016
Objective of the Study
To determine if the performance of the Washington
Redskins has any impact on federal government activity
Since the government employees in Washington, DC can
be sports fans just like anyone else, do the Redskins’ wins or
losses influence the employees’ behavior at work?
Conflicting Theories – Hypothesis #1
The researchers had two conflicting theories about whether the Redskins’
performance would increase or decrease government activity
Hypothesis 1:
Government employees do not earn as much as private sector employees, but
this difference in wages is made up for by the fact that they get value from their
ability to exercise power and influence, as well as their enjoyment of the local
amenities
The theory is when the Redskins are winning, the government employees get
more value from this “amenity” and need less compensation in other forms.
Therefore, they feel less of a need to exert influence over regulations, leading to
a decrease in the amount of government activity.
Conflicting Theories – Hypothesis #2
Hypothesis 2:
Government employees want to maximize their power, they do so by working
with others to enact regulations
When workers are happier it is easier for them to interact and work together to
come to agreements
The theory is when the Redskins are winning, the government employees are
happier, therefore making them more likely to interact to get work done, leading
to an increase in the amount of government activity
Data Used
The page count of the Federal Register was used to measure government
activity
◦ Available monthly since 1945 and daily since 1994
◦ Contains records of all daily activity of the federal government, including
regulations, executive orders, etc.
The performance of the Redskins was available for each game since 1932
Data was also gathered on other political variables that could potentially
impact the results
◦ Party controlling the executive branch, percentage of congressional seats
occupied by Democrats, and quarterly cabinet turnover rates
Quarterly and Annual Statistics
Pages of the Federal Register and
Redskins winning percentage 1945-2010
The number of
pages in the
Federal Register
increased
drastically
starting in the
1970s
Concerns with the Federal Register Data
The period being evaluated coincided with a huge growth in Federal Register
pages
The time series was non-stationary
◦ Data does not have the same properties (mean, variance) over time
Researchers needed a way to account for this otherwise the results would not
be meaningful
RGDP and Federal Register Pages
RGDP and Federal Register pages both increased
significantly over the same time period
The ratio of Federal Register pages to RGDP
proved to be stationary
Linear Regression Model
Error
term
Page count of
the Federal
Register
Winning
percentage of
the Redskins
Control variable,
captures the trend of FR
pages increasing over
time with the size of the
economy
Results for pages of the Federal Register
Federal Register pages are positively
correlated to the winning percentage
of the Redskins and the results are
statistically significant. RGDP is also
very significantly positive, due to the
fact that RGDP and the size of the
Federal Register have both increased
over time.
Adding in the other political
variables did not significantly
change the results
Results for ratio of FR pages to RGDP
Ratio of Federal Register pages to
RGDP is still positively correlated
to the winning percentage of the
Redskins and the results are
statistically significant
R-squared is much smaller when
looking at the ratio, showing that
the Redskins’ record only plays a
small part in impacting the
Federal Register pages
Other Considerations
Between 1970-1980 the number of pages in the Federal Register increased
substantially, and the Redskins also had several good seasons
◦ Could lead to concerns that the results are skewed based on this period of
time
◦ However, the researchers tested pulling out these records from the model and
their results still held true
The researchers also tried to see if these results were similar with
congressional behavior, using bills introduced in the House and Senate
◦ Results showed the Redskins’ performance did not have any impact
◦ Congressional members would likely remain loyal to their home teams even
though they are working in Washington, DC
Other Considerations
The researchers also looked at the other professional sports teams in the DC
area to see if their performance had any impact on government activity
◦ Wizards (basketball), Nationals (baseball), Capitals (hockey)
◦ The Wizards’ performance was also significantly positively related to
government activity
◦ The Nationals have not been in DC long enough (only since 2002) to
determine meaningful results, but initial results were positive
◦ However, the Capitals’ performance was significantly negatively related to
government activity, which the researchers had no explanation for
Conclusion
Regression results showed that the Redskins’ performance increased
government activity in a statistically significant way
This seems to prove the researchers’ Hypothesis #2 which said happier
government employees will be more willing to work together, leading to more
regulations being created
Would these results hold true for all factors that make people happier, such as
nice weather?