Monitoring, Security, and Rescue Techniques in Multiagent Systems Advances in Soft Computing Editor-in-chief Prof. Janusz Kacprzyk Systems Research Institute Polish Academy of Sciences ul. Newelska 6 01-447 Warsaw, Poland E-mail: [email protected] Further books of this series can be found on our homepage: springeronline.com Henrik Larsen, Janusz Kacprzyk, SJawomir Zadrozny, Troels Andreasen, Henning Christiansen (Eds.) Flexible Query Answering Systems 2000. ISBN 3-7908-1347-8 Robert John and Ralph Birkenhead (Eds.) Developments in Soft Computing 2001. ISBN 3-7908-1361-3 Leszek Rutkowski, Janusz Kacprzyk (Eds.) Neural Networks and Soft Computing 2003. ISBN 3-7908-0005-8 Jurgen Franke, Gholamreza Nakhaeizadeh, Ingrid Renz (Eds.) Text Mining 2003. ISBN 3-7908-0041-4 Mieczyslaw Kbpotek, Maciej Michalewicz and Slawomir T. Wierzchon (Eds.) Intelligent Information Systems 2001 2001. 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ISBN 3-540-21331-7 Przemyslaw Grzegorzewski, Olgierd Hryniewicz, Maria 9 . Gil (Eds.) Soft Methods in Probability, Statistics and Data Analysis 2002. ISBN 3-7908-1526-8 Miguel Lopez-Diaz, Maria 9 . Gil, Przemyslaw Grzegorzewski, Olgierd Hryniewicz, Jonathan Lawry Soft Methodology and Random Information Systems 2004. ISBN 3-540-22264-2 Lech Polkowski Rough Sets 2002. ISBN 3-7908-1510-1 Kwang H. Lee First Course on Fuzzy Theory and Applications 2005. ISBN 3-540-22988-4 Mieczyslaw Klopotek, Maciej Michalewicz and Slawomir T. Wierzchon (Eds.) Intelligent Information Systems 2002 2002. ISBN 3-7908-1509-8 Barbara Dunin-K^plicz, Andrzej Jankowski, Andrzej Skowron, Marcin Szczuka Monitoring, Security, and Rescue Techniques in Multiagent Systems 2005. ISBN 3-540-23245-1 Andrea Bonarini, Francesco Masulli and Gabriella Pasi (Eds.) Soft Computing Applications 2002. ISBN 3-7908-1544-6 Barbara Dunin-K^plicz Andrzej Jankowski Andrzej Skowron Marcin Szczuka Monitoring, Security, and Rescue Techniques in Multiagent Systems With 138 Figures ^ S p r iinger Barbara Dunin-K^plicz Institute of Computer Science Polish Academy of Sciences Ordona 21 01-237 Warsaw, Poland and Institute of Informatics, Warsaw University Banacha 2 02-097 Warsaw, Poland and Institute for Decision Process Support Chemikow 5 09-411 Piock, Poland Andrzej Jankowski Institute for Decision Process Support Chemikow 5 09-411 Plock, Poland Andrzej Skowron Institute of Mathematics Warsaw University Banacha 2 02-097 Warsaw, Poland and Institute for Decision Process Support Chemikow 5 09411 Ptock, Poland Marcin Szczuka Institute of Mathematics Warsaw University Banacha 2 02-097 Warsaw, Poland Library of Congress Control Number: 2004116865 ISSN 16-15-3871 ISBN 3-540-23245-1 Springer Berlin Heidelberg NewYork This work is subject to copyright. 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Cover design: Erich Kirchner, Springer Heidelberg Typesetting: Digital data supplied by editors Production: medionet AG, Berlin Printed on acid-free paper 62/3141/Rw-5 43 210 Preface In todays society the issue of security, understood in the widest context, have become a crucial one. The people of the information age, having instant access to the sources of knowledge and information expect the technology to improve their safety in all respects. That, straightforwardly, leads to the demand for methods, technologies, frameworks and computerized tools which serve this purpose. Nowadays such methods and tools are more and more expected to embed not only ubiquitous information sources, but also the knowledge that stems from them. The use of knowledge-based technology in security applications, and in the society at large, clearly emerges as the next big challenge. Within general set of security-related tasks we may exhale some sub-fields such us monitoring, control, crisis and rescue management. Multiagent systems are meant to be a toolset for modelling of, automated reasoning with, and study on the behavior of compound environments that involve many perceiving, reasoning and acting parties. In a natural way they are well suited for supporting the research on foundations of automatic reasoning processes starting from data acquisition (including data entry, sensor measurements and multimedia information processing) to automatic knowledge perception, real-life situation assessment, through planning to action execution in the context of monitoring, security, and rescue techniques. These activities are closely related to many very active research areas like autonomous systems, spatio-temporal reasoning, knowledge representation, soft computing with rough, fuzzy and rough mereological approaches, perception, learning, evolution, adaptation, data mining and knowledge discovery, collective intelligence and behavior. All these research directions have plenty of possible applications in the systems that are concerned with assuring security, acting in emergency and crisis situations, monitoring of vital infrastructures, managing cooperative jobs in the situation of danger, and planning of action for the rescue campaigns. This volume contains extended and improved versions of selected contributions presented at the International Workshop "Monitoring, Security, and Rescue Techniques in Multiagent Systems" (MSRAS 2004) held in Plock, Poland, June 7-9, 2004. The MSRAS 2004 workshop was aimed at gathering world's leading researchers active in areas related to monitoring, security, and rescue techniques in multiagent VI Preface systems. Such techniques are among the core issues that involve very large numbers of heterogeneous agents in the hostile environment. The intention of the workshop was to promote research and development in these significant domains. The workshop itself was a significant success thanks to the presence and contributions of the leading researchers in the field. In this way, by establishing a forum for exchanging results and experience of top specialists working in areas closely related to such tasks the new possibilities for scientific cooperation have been created. The workshop was also the first step on the road to establishing permanent research and technology center in Plock. We hope that this center, a part of Industrial and Technology Park, will become an important institution contributing to fostering the research in knowledge-based technologies and security. Organization of the volume As the 48 contributions in this volume span over very wide area of research, it is quite hard to categorize them precisely. Therefore, there are only two major parts in this volume. First one, entitled "Foundations and Methods" gathers the papers of more theoretical and fundamental character as well as those dealing with general, basic descriptions of various methodologies and paradigms. The second part, entitled "Application Domains and Case Studies" is meant to encapsulate the articles that deal with more specific problems, concrete solutions and application examples. Naturally, the division is very subjective and should not be treated as definite. Within each part the papers are organized in accordance with they role at the workshop. It means that in each of the parts the articles from keynote presenters come first, followed by invited and regular contributions, and finshed by papers that were part of special and poster sessions. Acknowledgements We wish to express our gratitude to Professors Zdzislaw Pawlak and Lotfi A. Zadeh who accepted our invitation to act as honorary chairs of the workshop. We are also very grateful to all oustanding scientists who participated in the workshop including: Andrzej Uszok Jean-Pierre Muller James F. Peters KatiaSycara David Wolpert Philip S. Yu Hans-Dieter Burkhard Tom R. Bums Nikolai Chilov Andrzej Czyzewski Barbara Dunin-K^plicz Rineke Verbrugge Amal EL Fallah-Seghrouchni Vladimir Gorodetski Zbigniew Michalewicz Hideyuki Nakanishi SankarK.Pal L^ch Polkowski Alberto Pettorossi Zbigniew Ras Alexander Ryjov Marek Sergot V.S. Subrahmanian ^^^^^^ ^^^g ^ui Wang Preface VII Many thanks to all authors who prepared their articles for this volume. We would like to thank PKN Orlen, City of Flock and the supervisor of MSRAS organization - Ms. Sulika Kamiiiska. Without the money, expertise, and organizational muscle they provided, neither the MSRAS workshop nor the publication of this volume would have been possible. We are also thankful to Springer-Verlag and Dr. Thomas Ditzinger for the opportunity of publishing this volume in the "Advances in Soft Computing" series. Warsaw, July 2004 Barbara Dunin-K^plicz Andrzej Jankowski Andrzej Skowron Marcin Szczuka Contents Part I Foundations and Methods 1 Flow Graphs, their Fusion and Data Analysis Zdzislaw Pawlak 3 2 Approximation Spaces for Hierarchical Intelligent Behavioral System Models James F. Peters 13 3 Distributed Adaptive Control: Beyond Single-Instant, Discrete Control Variables David H. Wolpert, Stefan Bieniawski 31 4 Multi-agent Planning for Autonomous Agents' Coordination Amal El Fallah-Seghrouchni 53 5 Creating Common Beliefs in Rescue Situations Barbara Dunin-K§plicz, Rineke Verbrugge 69 6 Coevolutionary Processes for Strategic Decisions Rodney W. Johnson, Michael E. Melich, Zbigniew Michalewicz, Martin Schmidt 85 7 Automatic Proofs of Protocols via Program Transformation Fabio Fioravanti, Alberto Pettorossi, Maurizio Proietti 8 Mereological Foundations to Approximate Reasoning Lech Polkowski 9 Data Security and Null Value Imputation in DIS Zbigniew W. Ras, Agnieszka Dardzinska 99 117 133 X Contents 10 Basic Principles and Foundations of Information Monitoring Systems Alexander Ryjov 147 11 Modelling Unreliable and Untrustworthy Agent Behaviour Marek Sergot 161 12 Nearest Neighbours without k Hui Wang, Ivo Duntsch, Gunther Gediga, Gongde Guo 179 13 Classifiers Based on Approximate Reasoning Schemes Jan Bazan, Andrzej Skowron 191 14 Towards Rough Applicability of Rules Anna Gomolinska 203 15 On the Computer-Assisted Reasoning about Rough Sets Adam Grabowski 215 16 Similarity-Based Data Reduction and Classification Gongde Guo, Hui Wang, David Bell, Zhining Liao 227 17 Decision Trees and Reducts for Distributed Decision Tables Mikhail Ju. Moshkov 239 18 Learning Concept Approximation from Uncertain Decision Tables Nguyen Sink Hoa, Nguyen Hung Son 249 19 In Search for Action Rules of the Lowest Cost Zbigniew W Has, Angelina A. Tzacheva 261 20 Circularity in Rule Knowledge Bases Detection using Decision Unit Approach Roman Siminski, Alicja Wakulicz-Deja 273 21 Feedforward Concept Networks Dominik Sl§zak, Marcin Szczuka, Jakub Wroblewski 281 22 Extensions of Partial Structures and Their Apphcation to Modelling of Multiagent Systems Bozena Staruch 293 23 Tolerance Information Granules Jaroslaw Stepaniuk 305 24 Attribute Reduction Based on Equivalence Relation Defined on Attribute Set and Its Power Set Ling Wei, Wenxiu Zhang 317 Contents XI 25 Query Cost Model Constructed and Analyzed in a Dynamic Environment Zhining Liao, Hui Wang, David Glass, Gongde Quo 327 26 The Efficiency of the Rules' Classification Based on the Cluster Analysis Method and Salton's Method Agnieszka Nowak, Alicja Wakulicz-Deja 333 27 Extracting Minimal Templates in a Decision Table Barbara Marszai-Paszek, Piotr Paszek 339 Part II AppUcation Domains and Case Studies 28 Programming Bounded Rationality Hans-Dieter Burkhard 347 29 Generalized Game Theory's Contribution to Multi-agent Modelling Tom R. Burns, Jose Castro Caldas, Ewa Roszkowska 363 30 Multi-Agent Decision Support System for Disaster Response and Evacuation Alexander Smimov, Michael Pashkin, Nikolai Chilov, Tatiana Levashova, Andrew Krizhanovsky 385 31 Intelligent System for Environmental Noise Monitoring Andrzej Czyzewski, Bozena Kostek, Henryk Skarzynski 397 32 Multi-agent and Data Mining Technologies for Situation Assessment in Security-related Applications Vladimir Gorodetsky, Oleg Karsaev, Vladimir Samoilov 411 33 Virtual City Simulator for Education, Training, and Guidance Hideyuki Nakanishi 423 34 Neurocomputing for Certain Bioinformatics Tasks Shubhra Sankar Ray, Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay, Pabitra Mitra, SankarK. Pal 439 35 Rough Set Based Solutions for Network Security Guoyin Wang, Long Chen, YuWu 455 36 Task Assignment with Dynamic Token Generation Alessandro Farinelli, Luca locchi, Daniele Nardi, Fabio Patrizi 467 37 DyKnow: A Framework for Processing Dynamic Knowledge and Object Structures in Autonomous Systems Fredrik Heintz, Patrick Doherty 479 XII Contents 38 Classifier Monitoring using Statistical Tests Rafal Latkowski, Cezary Gtowifiski 493 39 What Do We Learn When We Learn by Doing? Toward a Model of Dorsal Vision Ewa Ranch 501 40 Rough Mereology as a Language for a Minimalist Mobile Robot's Eenvironment Description Lech Polkowski, Adam Szmigielski 509 41 Data Acquisition in Robotics Krzysztof Luks 519 42 Spatial Sound Localization for Humanoid Lech Blazejewski 527 43 Oculomotor Humanoid Active Vision System Piotr Kazmierczak 539 44 Crisis Management via Agent-based Simulation Grzegorz Dohrowolski, Edward Nawarecki 551 45 Monitoring in Multi-Agent Systems: Two Perspectives Marek Kisiel-Dorohinicki 563 46 Multi-Agent Environment for Management of Crisis in an Enterprises-Markets Complex Jaroslaw Kozlak 571 47 Behavior Based Detection of Unfavorable Events Using the Multiagent System Krzysztof Cetnarowicz, Edward Nawarecki, Gabriel Rojek 579 48 Intelligent Medical Systems on Internet Technologies Platform Beata Zielosko, Andrzej Dyszkiewicz 589 Author Index 595 Flow Graphs, their Fusion and Data Analysis Zdzislaw Pawlak Institute of Computer Sciences Warsaw University of Technology Ul. Nowowiejska 15/19, 00665 Warsaw, Poland and Warsaw School of Information Technology ul. Newelska 6, 01-447 Warsaw, Poland zpwiiii . p w . e d u . p l Summary. This paper concerns a new approach to data analysis based on information flow distribution study in flow graphs. The introduced flow graphs differ from that proposed by Ford and Fulkerson, for they do not describe material flow in the flow graph but information "flow" about the data structure. Data analysis (mining) can be reduced to information flow analysis and the relationship between data can be boiled down to information flow distribution in aflownetwork. Moreover, it is revealed that information flow satisfies Bayes' rule, which is in fact an information flow conservation equation. Hence information flow has probabilistic character, however Bayes' rule in our case can be interpreted in an entirely deterministic way, without referring to prior and p(75r^nc>r probabilities, inherently associated with Bayesian philosophy. Furthermore in this paper we study hierarchical structure of flow networks by allowing to substitute a subgraph determined by branches x and y by a single branch connecting x and y, called fusion of x and y. This "fusion" operation allows us to look at data with different accuracy and move from details to general picture of data structure. Key words: flow graphs, data fusion, data mining, Bayes' rule 1.1 Introduction In [4] we presented a new approach to data analysis based on information flow distribution study in flow graphs. The introduced flow graphs differ from that proposed by Ford and Fulkerson [1], for they do not describe material flow in the flow graph but information "flow" about the data structure. With every branch of the flow graph three coefficients are associated, called strength, certainty and coverage factors. These coefficients were widely used in data mining and rough set theory, but in fact they were first introduced by Lukasiewicz [2] in connection with his study of logic and probability. These coefficients have a 4 Zdzislaw Pawlak probabilistic flavor, but here they are interpreted in a deterministic way, describing information flow distribution in the flow graph. We claim that data analysis (mining) can be reduced to information flow analysis and the relationship between data can be boiled down to information flow distribution in a flow network. Moreover, it is revealed that information flow satisfies Bayes' rule, which is in fact an information flow conservation equation. Hence information flow has probabilistic character, however Bayes' rule in our case can be interpreted in an entirely deterministic way, without referring to prior and posterior probabilities, inherently associated with Bayesian philosophy. Furthermore in this paper we study hierarchical structure of flow networks by allowing to substitute a subgraph determined by branches x and 2/ by a single branch connecting x and y, cdXltd fusion of x and y. This "fusion" operation allows us to look at data with different accuracy and move from details to general picture of data structure. This approach allows us to study different relationships in data and can be used as a new mathematical tool for data mining. Summing up, we advocate to use flow analysis to: • • • • searching for patterns in data, searching for dependencies in data, data classification, data fusion. A simple tutorial example will be used to illustrate the introduced ideas. 1.2 Example 1 - Smoking and Cancer First let us explain basic concepts of the proposed methodology on a simple example taken from [3]. In Table 1.1 data conceming 60 people who do or do not smoke and do or do not have cancer are shown. Table 1.1. Smoking and Cancer Not cancer Cancer Total Not smoke 40 7 47 Smoke 10 3 13 Total 50 10 60 With every data table like that in presented in Table 1.1 we associate a flow graph as shown in Fig. 1.1. Nodes XQ and xi are inputs of the graph, whereas yo and yi are outputs of the graph. The numbers assigned to the input nodes (J){XQ) and 0(xi) of the flow graph represent inflow to the flow graph, whereas numbers associated with the inputs 0(2/0) and (j){yi) represent outflow of the graph. Every branch (x, y) of the flow graph is 1 Flow Graphs, their Fusion and Data Analysis 5 labeled by a number which represents a throughflow (j){x, y) through the branch from nodes xioy. This representation of data is intended to capture the relationships in the data and is not meant to describe any material flow in the network. yes cp(^l)=13 cpO;j)=10 Fig. 1.1. Flow graph for Table 1.1 We will show in the next sections that representation of data as flow in a flow graph can be used to discover many important relationships in data, e.g. dependences. However to this end we have to "normalize" the flow graph by using instead of absolute values of flow (j){x) their relative values cr(x), i.e. percentage of flow with respect to total flow of the graph. The absolute throughflow </>(a:, y) will be also replaced by relative throghflow cr{x,y). This normalized representation has very interesting mathematical properties, which can be use to discover patterns in data. Beside, we will use two additional coefficients called the certainty and coverage factors, denoted cer{x, y) and cov{x, y) respectively, which characterize how the flow is spread between nodes x and y. Normalized flow graph for the flow graph given in Fig. 1.1 is shown in Fig. 1.2. a(jcj) = 13/60 a(yj)= 10/60 Fig. 1.2. Normalized flow graph for Table 1.1 From the flow graph we arrive at the following conclusions: • • • 85% non-smoking persons do not have cancer (cer(a;o, yo) = 40/47 ^ 0.85), 15% non-smoking persons do have cancer (cer(xo, yi) = 7/47 ^ 0.15), 77% smoking persons do not have cancer {cer{xi,yo) = 10/13 ^ 0.77), 6 • Zdzislaw Pawlak 23% smoking persons do have cancer (cer(xi, yi) = 3/13 ^ 0.23). From the flow graph we get the following reason for having or not cancer: • • • • 80% persons having not cancer do not smoke {cov{xo^ yo) = 4/5 = 0.80), 20% persons having not cancer do smoke {cov{xi^yo) = 1/5 = 0.20), 70% persons having cancer do not smoke {cov{xo, yi) = 7/10 = 0.70), 30% persons having cancer do smoke {cov{xi,yi) = 3/10 = 0.30). Let us observe that in the statistical terminology cr(xo), (T{XI) are priors while (^{xo^yo)^ " ", c^(^i5 2/i) are joint distributions, cov(xo, yo),..., cov{xi,yi) SLTQ posteriors and cr{yo),a{yi) are marginal probabilities. 1.3 Flow Graphs Basic Concepts 1.3.1 Flow Graphs In this section the fundamental concept of the proposed approach flow graph is defined and discussed. A flow graph is a directed, acyclic, finite graph G = {N, B, </>), where A'^ is a set oi nodes, B C N x N is Siset of directed branches, cj) : B —^ R^ is ?iflowfunction and R^ is the set of non-negative reals. Input of a node x e N is the set I{x) = {y E N : {y,x) e B}', output of a node X e N is defined as 0{x) = {y e N : {x,y) e B}. We will also need the concept of input and output of a graph G, defined, respectively, as follows: I{G) ^ {x e N : I{x) = 0}, 0{G) = {x e N : 0{x) = 0}. Inputs and outputs of G are external nodes of G', other nodes are internal nodes ofG. If (x, y) £ B then (/)(x, y) is a throughflow from x to y. With every node x of a flow graph G we associate its inflow Mx)= ^ 0(2/,x), yel{x) (1.1) and outflow 4>-{x)= Yl ^(^'2/). (1.2) yeo{x) Similarly, we define an inflow and an outflow for the whole flow graph, which are defined as ct>^{G)= Y. ^-(^)' (1-^) yei{G) xei(0) We assume that for any intemal node x, 4>+{x) = </>-(a:) = (t){x), where </)(a:) is a throughflow of node x. 1 Flow Graphs, their Fusion and Data Analysis 7 Obviously, </>+(G) = (/)-{G) = (j){G), where </>(G) is a troughflow of graph G. The above formulas can be considered as^ow conservation equations [4]. We will define now a normalized flow graph. A normalized flow graph is a directed, acyclic, finite graph G = (N^B^a), where N is a set of nodes, B C A/^ x A^ is a set of directed branches and cr:>B—» < 0,1 > is a normalized flow of (a:, y) and is a strength of (x,2/). Obviously, 0 < cr{x^y) < 1. The strength of the branch expresses simply the percentage of a total flow through the branch. In what follows we will use normalized flow graphs only, therefore by flow graphs we will understand normalized flow graphs, unless stated otherwise. With every node x of a flow graph G we associate its inflow and outflow defined as ^^ ^ yeO{x) Obviously for any internal node x, we have cr^{x) = a normalized throughflow of x. Moreover, let (T-{X) — cr{x), where a{x) is Obviously, a+(G) = (7_(G) = c7(G) = 1. If we invert direction of all branches in G, then the resulting graph G = (AT, B\ a') will be called an inverted graph of G. Of course the inverted graph G' is also a flow graph and all inputs and outputs of G become inputs and outputs of G\ respectively. 1.3.2 Certainty and Coverage Factors With every branch (x, y) of a flow graph G we associate the certainty and the coverage factors. The certainty and the coverage of (x, y) are defined as cer(z,j/) = ^ % f , (1.10) 8 Zdzislaw Pawlak and COv{x,y) = ^ ^ . (1.11) respectively. Evidently, cer{x, y) = cov{y, x), where (a;, y) E B and (y, x) G ^ ' . Below some properties, which are immediate consequences of definitions given above are presented: ^ cer(x,2/) = l, (1.12) yeO{x) Y^ cov{x,y) = l, (1.13) xel{y) (^{x)= Y^ cer{x,y)cF{x) = ^ 2/€0(a;) ^(y)= (T{x,y), (1.14) cr{x,y), (1.15) yeO(x) X I coi;(x,2/)a(2/) = xel{y) ^ xyel{y) cer(.,,)^-(-'.y^), (1.16) (T(X) co^0^,7/ = — H ^ r ^ . (1.17) Obviously the above properties have a probabilistic flavor, e.g., equations (14) and (15) have a form of total probability theorem, whereas formulas (16) and (17) are Bayes' rules. However, these properties in our approach are interpreted in a deterministic way and they describe flow distribution among branches in the network. 1.3.3 Paths, Connections and Fusion A {directed) path from x to y, x ^ y in G is a sequence of nodes x i , . . . , x^ such that xi = x^Xn — y and (xj, xi^i) G B for every i, l < z < n — l . A path from x to y is denotedhy[x...y]. The certainty of the path [ x i . . . Xn] is defined as n-l cer[xi ,..Xn]= ]][ cer{xi,x^+i), (1.18) 2=1 the coverage of the path [ x i . . . x^] is n-l COt'[xi . . . Xn] = J J COv{Xi, Xi+i), i=l and the strength of the path [ x . . . y] is (1-19) 1 Flow Graphs, their Fusion and Data Analysis a[x .. .y] = a{x)cer[x .. .y] = a{y)cov[x .. .y]. 9 (1-20) The set of all paths from x to y{x 7^ y) in O denoted < x, y >, will be called a connection from x to y in G. In other words, connection < x, y > is a sub-graph of G determined by nodes x and y. The certainty of the connection < x, y > is cer < x^y >= V^ cer[x...y]^ (1.21) [x...y]e<x,y> the coverage of the connection < x, y > is GOV < x,y >= 22 cov[x.. .y], (1-22) [x...y]e<x,y> and the strength of the connection < x, y > is a<x,y>= ^ cr[x...2/] = [x...?/]€<a:,2/> = a{x)cer < x^y >= a{y)cov < x,y > . (1.23) If we substitute simultaneously every sub-graph < x, y > of a given flow graph G, where x is an input node and y an output node of G, by a single branch (x, y) such that cr(x, y) = a < x,y >, then in the resulting graph G\ called the fusion of G, we have cer(x,y) = cer < x,y >, cov{x,y) = cov < x,y > and <j(G^) = cr{G'). Thus fusion of a flow graph can be understood as a simplification of the graph and can be used to get a general picture of relationships in the flow graph. 1.3.4 Dependences in Flow Graphs Let X and y be nodes in a flow graph G = (iV, 3, a), such that (x, y) e B. Nodes X and y are independent in G if (j(x,y) =cr(x)a(y). (1.24) a(x,y) = cer{x,y) =(j{y), cr(x) (1.25) From (21) we get and cr(x,y) cot'(x,y) = cr(x). (1.26) If or cer{x,y) > a{y), (1.27) cov{x,y) > cr(x), (1.28) 10 Zdzislaw Pawlak then X and y are positively depends on x in G. Similarly, if cer{x,y) < a{y), (1.29) or cov{x,y) < CF{X), (1.30) then X and y are negatively dependent in G. Relations of independency and dependences are symmetric ones, and are analogous to those used in statistics. For every branch (x, y) G B'WQ define a dependency (correlation) factor //(x, y) defined as cov{x, y) — a[x) cer{x, y) — a{y) r]{x,y) (131) cer{x^y) -\- (j{y) cov[x^y) -{- a(x)' Obviously —1 < rj{x,y) < 1; ri{x,y) = 0 if and only \i cer{x^y) — a{y) and cov{x,y) = a{x);r]{x,y) = — 1 if andonly if cer(x,t/) = cov{x,y) =0;r){x,y) = 1 if and only if a{y) = a{x) = 0. It is easy to check that if r}{x, y) = 0, then x and y are independent, if - 1 < 77(x, y) < 0 then x and y are negatively dependent and if 0 < 77(x, y) < I then X and y are positively dependent. Thus the dependency factor expresses a degree of dependency, and can be seen as a counterpart of correlation coefficient used in statistics. Disease yes a(x{) = 0.70 a{x^ = 0.30 young Fig. 1.3. Initial data 1 Flow Graphs, their Fusion and Data Analysis 11 1.4 Example 2 - Medical Test Now we are ready to illustrate the basic concepts presented in this paper by a simple tutorial example. Various patient groups are put to the test for certain drug effectiveness. Initial data are shown in Fig. 1.3. Corresponding flow graph is presented in Fig. 1.4. a(jC2) = 0.30 a(z2) = 0.47 G(y^) = 0.25 young Fig. 1.4. Relationship between Disease, Age and Test Fig. 1.5 shows the corresponding fusion, of Disease and Test. Disease Test yes a(Xj) = 0.70 G(X^) = 0.30 Giz^) = 0.55 G(Z^) = 0.45 Fig. 1.5. Fusion of theflowgraph presented in Fig. 1.4 This flow graph leads to the following conclusions:
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