Adaptation, adaptive capacity
and adoption:
focussing on the end game
Dr Alistair Hobday
Senior scientist – Climate Adaptation Flagship
CSIRO
Dr Paul Marshall
Director – Climate Change
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
Good news….I’ve made a discovery!
Range changes to 2100
Use a range of climate models
Present: SBT, CSIRO Mk3
Hobday 2009
2100: SBT, CSIRO Mk3
Hobday 2009
Overall change in species distribution
(14 species, 12 months, 9 models, 25 scenarios = 37,800 futures)
smaller area
moving north
larger area
moving north
95%
smaller area
moving south
Hobday 2009
larger area
moving south
Regional Impact for Longline Fisheries
(using 11 common species)
Hobday 2009
WTBF: Mean index: 3.75
ETBF: Mean index: 4.28
• Mean latitude change: 3.58°S
• Mean area change: 0.95
• Mean latitude change: 4.08 °S
• Mean area change: 0.88
Of course this is important work…
Supply-driven science
Need-driven science
Impact studies…it’s going to be bad…
Impact studies not enough for decisions
Exposure (E)
Sensitivity (S)
Potential
impact
Vulnerability?
Impact ≠ Vulnerability
Exposure (E)
Sensitivity (S)
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity (AC)
Vulnerability
Impact ≠ Vulnerability ≠ Adaptation
Exposure (E)
Sensitivity (S)
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity (AC)
Vulnerability Cost
Feasibility
Adaptation Priorities
Values
Challenges
• Novel area
• Lack of underpinning science &data/observations (still need “impact”)
• Uncertainty – reduce this!
• Theoretical frameworks needed
• Repeatability, transparency, credibility
• Linking biophysical to socio-economic
• Communication and interaction
• Uptake by policy-makers and stakeholders
Integrated vulnerability analysis
Ecological
Resource
availability
Resource
dependency
Asset changes
Linking ecological to
human systems
Socio-economic
resilience
Goal
•Adaptive
•Reduce response time
•Efficient feedback
Socio-Economic
or industry/human
Marshall, Hobday, Marshall
Path to adaptation
Outcome
Understand problem
Identify risk‐reduction strategies
Prioritise adaptation activities
Build resilience
ADAPTATION
Path to adaptation
Output
Outcome
Vulnerability Assessment
Understand problem
Resilience Analysis
Identify risk‐reduction strategies
Adaptation
Plan
Implementation Plan
Prioritise adaptation activities
Build resilience
ADAPTATION
Actors in adaptation
Researchers
Outcome
Output
Understand problem
Vulnerability Assessment
Identify risk‐reduction strategies
Resilience Analysis
Prioritise adaptation activities
Adaptation
Plan
Build resilience
Implementation Plan
Policy makers
Resource users
Actors in adaptation
Researchers
Outcome
Output
Understand problem
Vulnerability Assessment
Identify risk‐reduction strategies
Resilience Analysis
Prioritise adaptation activities
Adaptation
Plan
Build resilience
Implementation Plan
Policy makers
Resource users
Building adaptive capacity
Resource dependency
• Barriers to change
• Thresholds
• Transformation
Engagement
Ownership
Empowerment
Informed, efficient and pragmatic choices
Rational options
Appealing
options
Efficient
options
Marshall, Marshall and Hobday
Informed, efficient and pragmatic choices
with climate change,
a change in the space
Rational options
Appealing
options
Efficient
options
Identifying adaptation pathways
What do we need?
• New teams
• Adaptive researchers
• Engaged managers and policy makers
• Contributing end users
.=> Interdisciplanary teams
• Options, Barriers and Solutions
• Costs and benefits of each approach
• Identify barriers to adoption
• Engaged stakeholders
• Monitoring and feedback
• Is it working?
• New performance measures
• Effectiveness = adaptation (knowledge + uptake)