Drought & Flood mitigation activities for Somaliland WASH sector
SOMALILAND Contingency plan (CP) SCENARIOS
This section examines the Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Contingency Plan scenarios for drought, floods, conflict, disease
outbreak and locusts in Somaliland. The Contingency Plans are presented in tables (see below) and provide information on three
scenarios (alert, alarm, and emergency) and the hazard triggers for action to guide agencies on when a specific CP should be
activated. Information provided in the tables is based on CP participant perception and knowledge.
Each scenario provides information on the estimated projected impacts, the likelihood of occurrence of the hazard in the next two
years based on historical data, the total number of estimated population who would be at risk using UNDP/Government population
estimates, and the areas within each livelihood to be affected. For all the hazards (except disease outbreak), the scenarios are
defined by the lead trigger indicator and threshold value. The level of severity increases by each scenario and hence the population
at risk increases adversely. Disease outbreak scenarios are defined only by the level of severity/magnitude; however, the threshold
values cut-across all scenarios which is based on the WHO guidelines defining the alert threshold for the key diseases.
In Somaliland the effect of EL-Nino phenomena study indicate that the rainfall would be 25% probability of rainfall occurring in
the above-normal category; 40% probability of rainfall occurring in the near-normal category; and 35% probability
of rainfall occurring in the below-normal category. That means the shortage of rain fall might occur in Somaliland, as the
predication drought might occur which will cause water shortage and out-break of Water born disease as result of water
contamination and mal Nutrition.
The rainfall forecast issued on 2/11/2015 and 3/11/2015 indicated that : There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia in the coming three days. However, a tropical storm
named CHAPALA is expected to make a land fall in Yemen. The passage of this tropical storm is expected to cause strong
winds in parts of Bari and Sanaag regions which may also lead to heavy rains in the area during the forecast period. Areas to
watch are Caluula, Qandala, Bossaso and Laasqoray (eastern coast of Somaliland).
 Light rains spread across many southern and central parts of Somalia are expected in the next three days. The northern
parts of the country are expected to receive moderate rains over the same period, with few pockets in Togdheer and Bari
regions experiencing high rainfall of up to 100mm which can lead to flash floods. The upper catchment of the Shabelle River
in Ethiopia will receive high rains as well, which translates to increase in river levels later in the week.
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Summary of scenarios expecting at Somaliland :1- Drought as the result of below normal rainfall.
2- Above normal( moderate rainfall which will causes certain floods and coastal area and eastern region of sool & Togdheer
regions
Activities implemented in advance of a drought to reduce its negative effects.
1. Water sources rehabilitation/development to make it ready use during the droughts mainly the collection and storage of
rainwater( Rainwater harvesting)
2. HH storage and community reservoirs improvement such traditional plastic sheets, bladder tanks.
3. Floods protection in case of extra ordinary rains
4. Rainwater may be contaminated using traditional water treatment or using Chlorine tablets is recommended
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Establishment of sustainable Water management
Water and soil conservation
Community mobilizing and awareness education and establishment of local communication system
Land use and grazing management
Economic and social empowerment including income generation/job creation
10.1 Establishment of early preparedness in terms of:-


Data collection from rainfall, temperature, wind speed/direction and evaporation.
Reliable information on grazing status, livestock movement, concentration of settlements, morbidity/mortality rates, nutrition
and health status.


Regular monitoring of dry river flow, spring flow, borehole/shallow wells water table monitoring and water quality analysis
Rehabilitation and equipping of strategic water sources mainly the boreholes, springs and shallow wells.
2

Pre- positioning of all emergency intervention facilities(buffer stock, Chlorine stock ) including fast moving parts, water
storing containers, dewatering pumps, chlorine tablets , bladder tanks, ready use food, basic drugs and shelter.
10.2 Timely intervention during the droughts





Establishment of well-coordinated task force at national, regional and community levels with proper coordination system.
Proper coordination between the different actors giving clear roles and responsibilities.
Construction of high capacity rain water storage sources.
Assistance for recovery such as restocking and farm cultivation assistance to the distributed people
Post droughts programs focused on construction of high capacity dams, drilling of strategic boreholes and reserved grazing
zones should be established.
Drought management strategies may be divided into several categories, Changes must be made in a proactive, rather than reactive
manner to minimize negative effects on human, livestock and agriculture production during prolonged periods of reduced
precipitation. Pastoralists should remember that grazing management is the most important factor for livestock in any economic or
environmental climate, followed closely by proper soil fertility for introduced forages.
10.3 water abstraction equipment strategy:
Use of renewable energy for the abstraction of water is the best option and long lasting and there are many successful models which
showed sustainability. Encouraging solar panels and wind turbines should be encouraged and adapted. However most of the
strategic water sources such as Bore wells/dug wells used for town water supplies, boreholes, mini-water systems and irrigated
farms are energized by electricity and diesel are widely used in Somaliland mainly i) Efficiency of the electric pumps is higher than
the diesel pumps, the availability of the spare parts and the selection of the most suitable generators and pumps are very essential
11 Recommendations
a) Drought preparedness and early warning
1. Collection of all available data drought prone areas
2. Rehabilitation and maintenance of strategic water sources as stand by for droughts water demand.
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3. Flood protection in case of extra ordinary rains
4. Community awareness raising to the storage of rain water
5. Prepositioning of fast moving parts, Chlorine tablets, bladder tanks and minor repairing item in the drought
prone regions for ready use.
6. Provisions of maintenance crane to the technical unit of the Ministry team
7. Training of the regional staff and community members on drought dissemination strategy and the drought
resilience hand book.
b) Drought response
8. Distribution of fast moving parts to the strategic water sources boreholes
and other spare parts
9. On the spot repairing of break down to the strategic water sources
10. Intensive Chlorination in case of outbreak diseases
11. Provide relevant information on water and grazing availability
12. Provide relevant information to the movements to avoid concentration.
c) Drought recovery
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
De silting and enlargement of the earth dams
Rehabilitation of strategic boreholes ,springs and shallow wells
Construction of high capacity earth dams
Establishment of rain water harvesting HH schemes
Re stoking of pastoralists
Support farmers by providing tillage assistance
Establishment of income generation schemes
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SN
Strategic action Plan
1
1.1
Responsible
Partners
Estimate
cost USD
Supporting
Partners
MOWR, contractor &
care
40,000
Care inter.
MOWR, contractor
150,000
Gov./UN/Inter.
Organizations
90,000
Gov./UN/Inter.
organizations
8,000
Gov./UN/Inter.
organizations
10,800
Gov./UN/Inter.
organizations
Drought preparedness activities
Provide maintenance crane to the
Ministry technical unit
1.1.1 Rehabilitation of 25 strategic BH
1.1.2 Provision of buffer stock to the
MOWR
-4 generators
-4 submersible pumps with panel
and cable wire
- 12 centrifugal pumps
1.2
Provide monitoring tools to the
Ministry technical unit
4 EC Meters
MOWR,
contractor &
care
4Depmeters100m,200m,300m,400m
2 GPS
1.3
Distribution of Fast Moving parts to
20 strategic boreholes,12 mini
water systems
MOWR technical team,
Operators, Water
committees
25 Oil filters,
25 fuel filters
25 air filters
25 Engine
5
250 Lts oil filters
25 van belt,
25 lead batteries
20 distilled water
1.3
Floods protection in case of extra ordinary rains
1.3
Construction of gabion baskets
along the river bank of the well
fields. Gabion baskets 2mx1mx1m
2000
40
80,000
1.3
Construction of soil l bunds
100Mx1Mx1M
100
600
60,000
1.8
Prepositioning of Chlorine stock
MOWR,UNICEF,CARE
and SPI
4,000
UNICEF,SPI
Aqua tab
1.9
Translation of the drought resilience
manual
MOWR & Care
1,500
Care
1.10
Capacity building to regional staff,
operators and village committees
MOWR & Care
4,900
Care


2
Training of 40 participants on
drought resilience
Distribution of the drought
resilience manual
Drought response
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2,1
Mobile team repair emergency
break down
12,000
2.2
Water trucking where necessary
118,000
2.3
Disseminate information on grazing
and water available areas
2,000
2.4
Facilitate moving mechanisms to the
mountainous and coastal areas
5,700
3
Drought recovery
3.1
Desilting and enlarging of 10 earth
dams
12,000
3.2
Rehabilitation of 25 rural shallow
wells
9,000
3.3
Rainwater harvesting schemes
15,000
3.4
Coordination
12,000
3.5
Intervention support
13,000
Total
655,000
Contingency 10%
65,500
Grand total
720,500
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ADVISORY
Indicators remain generally within the expected
seasonal ranges
ALERT
Marked negative changes in environmental
indicators, cumulative rainfall<70% of mean,
and/or an unusually low asset status due to
previous losses
ALARM
Marked negative changes in environmental and
rural economy indicators and/or cumulative rainfall
<50 of mean
EMERGENCY Strongly negative changes in environmental,
economic, and human welfare indicators prevail
Establishment of Risk Assessment committee
Many people perceive drought to be largely a natural or physical
event. In reality, drought, like other natural hazards, has both a
natural and social component. The risk associated with drought
for any region is a product of both the region’s exposure to the
event and the vulnerability of society. That is, the threat of harm
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from drought is based on a combination of the frequency,
duration, and severity of drought events experienced and the
susceptibility of people or activities to the negative effects
associated with drought. Some regions, people, and activities are
more likely to be at risk for a variety of reasons.
Therefore, drought risk is explained by the equation:
Drought Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
Exposure to drought varies regionally and there is little, if
anything, we can do to reduce their occurrence, frequency, or
incidence of precipitation shortfalls. However, measures can be
taken to reduce our vulnerability to drought events.
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The responsibility of the risk assessment committee is to ask
questions about who and what are vulnerable to drought and
why, and identify a range of potential options to reduce these
vulnerabilities, The membership of the risk assessment committee
should include representatives of economic sectors, social groups,
and ecosystems most at risk from drought. The committee’s
chairperson should be a member of the drought task force.
Experience has demonstrated that the most effective approach to
follow in determining vulnerability to and impacts of drought is to
create a series of working groups under the aegis of the risk
assessment committee. The number of working groups will vary
considerably between countries or provinces, reflecting the
principal impact sectors. The more complex the economy and
society, the larger the number of working groups will be
necessary to reflect these sectors. Working groups may focus on
some combination of the following sectors: agriculture, recreation
and tourism, industry, commerce, drinking water supplies, energy,
environment, wildfire protection, and health.
The responsibility of the committee and working groups is to
assess sectors, population groups, and ecosystems most at risk
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and identify appropriate and reasonable measures to address
these risks. Working groups would be composed of technical
specialists representing those areas referred to above. The chair
of each working group, as a member of the risk assessment
committee, would report directly to the committee, the
responsibility of the risk assessment committee is to direct the
activities of each of the working groups and make
recommendations to the drought task force on actions that can be
taken to reduce drought risk. Once the risk assessment
committee organizes the working groups, each of these groups
should assess relevant drought impacts, vulnerabilities, and
management options.
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Annex 1 Evaluation Parameters
Climate Evaluation Parameters
Precipitation deficit
100%and above the annual rainfall
Normal
75%
Mild drought
50%
severe droughts
25%
very severe droughts
Precipitation Index
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•Temperature (average, maximum, minimum, amplitude)
•Evapotranspiration
•Frost and other hazards (dry wind, sandstorm, …)
•Soil Moisture
Evaluation Parameters Water Resources
Reduction in runoff, stream flow/river flow, spring discharge, temporary rivers,
Water Storage (% reservoir filled)
Groundwater recharge
Wells (discharge reduction, number (%) of dried wells, drawdown)
Water allocation/use by sector (% reduction)
Wetlands hydrological capacities
Livestock, Forests and Rangelands Evaluation Parameters
Reduction in range and pasture lands production and quality
Estimate of quantity or supportive capacity per unit area, vegetative cover, and dominant species/quality
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Reduction in livestock (resulting from deaths, sale, slaughter, etc.)
Reduction in birth rate, death of newly born animals
Reduction in forest products (timber, charcoal, wood, …)Fires, other drought associated hazards
3. Agriculture Evaluation Parameters
Cropped area (statistics by crop)
Cultivation date
Irrigated, rainfed areas
Failures/delays in crop germination, plant density, number of tillers
Onset of growth phases/stages
Specific circumstances (flower loss, …)
Crop yield (irrigated and rainfed, per unit area, total)
Crop loss (annual, perennial; rainfed, irrigated)
Damage to quality of produce
Other products (fodder, straw, etc.)
Social Impacts Evaluation Parameters
Population migration
Diseases
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Food production/insecurity, hunger, famine
Unemployment
Conflicts, social unrest
Incidence of theft, racketeering, aggressions
Environmental Impacts Evaluation Parameters
Dried riverbeds and natural aqua-systems
Biological degradation
Wildlife
Soil and water salinization
Soil degradation (erosion, organic matter/fertility reduction, etc.)
Extinct or threatened fauna and flora species
Soil and water pollution
Living conditions of rural areas and other vulnerable groups (nomads)
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Source
10 years
ago
5 years Last
ago
Year
Worksheet 4: Available Water Supplies
Date:
This Year Cost Capacity
Pumping
Rates
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Minimum
Usable Level
Does drought affect water
quality?
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18
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