Why is Science Necessary?
Isn’t Psychology just common sense?
Why aren’t Intuition and Logic enough?
• Brain is flawed
• Inherent biases present in
human thinking
• We need structures in place to
collect information correctly
Order in Random Events
• Francis Bacon first came up with
the idea
• Humans want the world to be
organized, so we see or assume
patterns that don’t exist in random
events
Carroll’s Explanation
• Carroll saw a front stacked against a power run and a matchup he felt
he could exploit with a short route against a rookie corner who had
zero career interceptions. And he didn't want to run, get stopped
short, burn his final timeout and be boxed into calling a pass on third
down.
• "You could run on 2nd down, call timeout, have to throw on third and
score, or incompletion and have to choose (run or pass) on the final
down," Carroll texted. "That's ball logic, not 2nd guess logic ... you
never think you'll throw an interception there, just as you don't think
you would fumble."
Carroll’s Explanation
• He did it by referencing Wilson's 11-yard touchdown pass to Chris
Matthews on a ball that was snapped with six seconds left in the first
half, completing a five-play, 80-yard, 29-second drive (you read that
correctly) that tied the game at 14
• "The logic and reasoning (of the second-and-1 pass) is why you throw
a TD pass with six seconds left in the half," Carroll said. "You've
trained your players to do the right thing, and I trust them to do
right."
Hindsight Bias
• “I knew it all along”
phenomenon
• “Monday morning
quarterback”,
“Hindsight is 2020”
Overconfidence
• We tend to overestimate our own
abilities
• We also seek information that
confirms our pre-existing beliefs
A Scientist is…CURIOUS
• Passion to explore and
understand without
being misled
• Ask yourself “Does it
work” and design ways
to test
A Scientist is…SKEPTICAL
• Doubt everything right off the bat
• Ask “how do you know?”
• Look for evidence
• Play “devil’s advocate”
• Put findings and theories to the test
A Scientist is…HUMBLE
• Accept new ideas when proven wrong- actually want to be PROVEN
wrong
• Awareness of vulnerability to mistakes
• Open to ideas of others
• Goal is finding out truth- not self validation
• Open to other’s ideas