GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
Technical Analysis
1H 2014
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
Prepared by: Aaron Tay
Date: 8 July 2014
GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Nickel Outlook
Moving Average – Nickel price has been
riding on a uptrend for the past few
months although it has not experience
the golden cross yet.
MACD – The positive MACD crossover
since February 2014 indicates that the
trend has changed from downtrend to
uptrend.
Stochastics – The stochastics indicates
that the nickel price will continue to
remain strong in the near term.
Analysis – The outlook for nickel is bullish. The 2, 5, 7, 19 and 34 weeks moving
averages indicate that the uptrend has just begun. MACD indicates that the trend has
changed while Stochastics indicates the price will continue to remain strong in the near
term. Expect resistance to be tested in the coming months. A break of resistance at
US$20,000 will test the next major resistance of US$22,000.
Price action – Nickel price has been well supported at US$17,095 level. If the support of
US$17,095 is broken, the next support is US$16,457. The next resistance level is
US$20,000.
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GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Zinc Outlook
Moving Average – Zinc price has been
riding has broken out of the golden cross
and zinc price is expected to move
higher.
MACD – The positive MACD crossover
since October 2013 indicates that the
trend has changed from downtrend to
uptrend. The uptrend will likely continue
as MACD has broken out of the oversold
region.
Stochastics – The stochastics indicates
that the zinc price will continue to remain
strong in the near term.
Analysis – The outlook for zinc is positive. The 2, 5, 7, 19 and 34 weeks moving
averages indicate that the uptrend has just begun. MACD confirms this uptrend and
Stochastics indicates the price will continue to remain strong in the near term. The
resistance of US$2,500 is expected to be tested in the coming months.
Price action – Zinc price has been well supported around the US$1,700 level. If the
support of US$2,000 is broken, the next support is US$1,600. Resistance is at
US$2,500.
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GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WTI Outlook
Moving Average – WTI has been trading
in a tight range between US$80 –
US$115.
MACD – The
directionless.
MACD
is
flat
and
Stochastics – The stochastics indicates
that the WTI price will continue to remain
strong in the near term.
Analysis – The outlook for WTI is bullish. The 2, 5, 7, 19 and 34 weeks moving averages
indicate that the uptrend has just begun. MACD indicates that the trend is directionless
while Stochastics indicates the price will continue to remain strong in the near term.
Expect resistance to be tested in the coming months. A break of resistance at US$115
will test the next major resistance of US$150.
Price action – WTI price is well supported at US$85 level. If the support of US$85 is
broken, the next support is US$70. Resistance is likely to be tested in the coming
months. A break of resistance at US$115 will test the next major resistance of US$150.
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GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Aluminum Outlook
Moving Average – Aluminum has been
moving in a downtrend and the 34 week
moving trend has been a strong
reisistance.
MACD – The MACD has crossover and
move upwards.
Stochastics – The stochastics has
crossed and move upwards which
indicates that the Aluminium price will
continue to remain strong in the near
term.
Analysis – The outlook for WTI is mixed. The 34 weeks moving average was tested and
has proved to be a strong resistance. MACD indicates that the trend has changed while
Stochastics indicates the price movement will continue to remain strong in the near term.
Expect resistance to be tested in the coming months. A break of resistance at US$1,557
will test the next major resistance of US$2,170.
Price action – The resistance of US$1,557 has been tested recently and will continued to
be tested. A break above US$1,557 will see Aluminium price moving higher to test
US$2,170.
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GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold Outlook
Moving Average - Gold price has been
riding on a downtrend since the
beginning of 2013. The 19-week moving
average has been a strong resistance.
MACD – The negative MACD crossover
since March 2012 remained intact but
the MACD (12,26) and Sig (9) is looking
to close gap in the coming months,
indicating a potential change in trend.
Stochastics – The stochastics has been
in the oversold region since June 2013.
However, the recent crossover in March
2014 suggest more upside in price.
Analysis – The outlook for gold is mixed. The crossovers of the of the 2, 5, 7, 19 and 34
weeks moving averages indicate the gold price trend is still down. MACD indicates that
the downtrend is intact but Stochastics suggests that price movement is likely to be
strong in the near term. Expect resistance to be tested in the coming months. A break
above US$1,363 will test the next major resistance at US$1,400.
Price action – Gold price has been well supported at US$1,180 since July 2013. Since
then, price has been trading in range of US$1,180 – US$1,400. Resistance is at
US$1,400 and short term support is at US$1,180.
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GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Silver Outlook
Moving Average – Silver price has been
riding on a downtrend since March 2013.
The
19-week
moving
average
(US$22.55)
has been
a
strong
resistance.
MACD – The negative MACD crossover
since December 2011 remained intact
but the MACD (12,26) and Sig (9) is
looking to close gap in the coming
months, indicating a potential change in
trend.
Stochastics – The stochastics has been
in the oversold region since Septermber
2012. However, the %DS and %DSS
are looking to crossover, indicating more
upside momentum if it happens .
Analysis – The outlook for silver is mixed. The crossovers of the of the 2, 5, 7, 19 and 34
weeks moving averages indicate the silver price is still on a downtrend. MACD indicates
that the downtrend is intact. However, both Stochastics and MACD are looking to
experience postive crossovers in the coming months. Expect resistance to be tested in
the coming months. A break above US$22.50 will test the next major resistance at
US$24.
Price action – Silver price has been well supported at US$18 since July 2013. Since
then, silver price has been trading in range of US$18 – US$25. Resistance is at
US$22.50 and short term support is at US$18.
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GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Copper Outlook
Moving Average – Copper price has
been riding on a downtrend since March
2013. The 19-week moving average
(US$7215) has been a strong resistance.
MACD – The negative MACD crossover
since September 2011 remained intact
but the MACD (12,26) and Sig (9) is
looking to close gap in the coming
months, indicating a potential change in
trend.
Stochastics – The stochastics has been
in the oversold region since March 2013.
However, the %DS and %DSS gap is
closing and may look to crossover,
indicating more upside momentum if it
happens.
Analysis – The outlook for copper is mixed. The crossovers of the of the 2, 5, 7, 19 and
34 weeks moving averages indicate the copper price is still on a downtrend. MACD
indicates that the downtrend is intact. However, both Stochastics and MACD are looking
to experience postive crossovers in the coming months. Expect resistance to be tested
in the coming months. A break above US$7,215 will test the next major resistance at
US$7,375.
Price action – Copper price has been well supported at US$6,600 since June 2013.
Since then, price has been trading in range of US$6,300 – US$7,900. Resistance is at
US$7,215 and short term support is at US$7,375.
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GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Potash Outlook
Moving Average – Potash price has
been riding on a downtrend since the
beginning of 2013. However, the moving
averages are constricting, indicating a
possible change in trend.
MACD – The positive MACD crossover
since April 2014 indicates that the trend
is likely to change from downtrend to
uptrend.
Stochastics – The stochastics indicates
that the potash price will continue to
remain strong in the near term.
Analysis – The outlook for potash is mixed. The 2, 5, 7, 19 and 34 weeks moving
averages indicate that the downtrend is intact though looking to constrict in the coming
months.. MACD indicates that the trend has changed while Stochastics indicates the
price will continue to remain strong in the near term. A break of resistance at US$466
will test the next major resistance of US$600.
Price action – Potash price has been well supported at US$350 level. If the support of
US$350 is broken, the next support is US$300. Resistance is likely to be tested in the
coming months. A break of resistance at US$466 will test the next major resistance of
US$600.
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GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Lead Outlook
Moving Average – Lead price has been
trading in a very tight range with strong
support at US$1,700.
MACD – The MACD has moving in a
tight range, with no clear direction for the
past two years.
Stochastics – The stochastics indicates
that the lead price may be weak in the
near term.
Analysis – The outlook for lead is mixed with no clear directions. The 2, 5, 7, 19 and 34
weeks moving averages have been constricting with no clear breakout in any direction.
MACD has been moving in a tight range. Stochastics indicates the price movment will be
weak. Expect support of US$1,700 to be tested in the coming months.
Price action – Lead price has been well supported at US$1,700 level. If the support of
US$2,000 is broken, the next support is US$1,500. Resistance remains at US$2,500.
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GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Iron Ore Outlook
Moving Average – Iron Ore price has
been riding on a downtrend since the
beginning of 2014.
MACD – The negative MACD crossover
since February 2014 indicates that the
downtrend will continue in the near term.
Stochastics – The stochastics indicates
that the iron ore price will continue to
remain weak.
Analysis – The outlook for iron ore is bearish as indicated by the crossovers of the of the
2, 5, 7, 19 and 34 weeks moving averages. MACD and Stochastics also support the
bearish outlook. The US$90 support is likely to be tested again in the coming months. A
break of support at US$90 will test the next major support at US$70.
Price action – Iron ore price has been well supported at US$90 level. If the support of
US$90 is broken, the next support is US$70.
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GLOBAL RESOURCES FUND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Coal Outlook
Moving Average – WTI has been moving
in a downtrend.
MACD – The MACD continues to remain
in oversold region, indicating that
downtrend is intact.
Stochastics – The stochastics indicates
that the coal price will continue to remain
weak in the near term.
Analysis – The outlook for coal is bearish. The 2, 5, 7, 19 and 34 weeks moving
averages indicate that the downtrend will continue. MACD indicates that the downtrend
will remain intact for now. Stochastics indicates coal price is oversold.
Price action – Coal price is well supported at US$70 level. If the support of US$70 is
broken, the next support is US$60.
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