ULDA SEQ Greenfield
UDAs
Residential Price Review and Analysis
11 April 2011
URBIS STAFF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS REPORT WERE:
Director
Malcolm Aikman
Associate Director
Jon Rivera
Consultant
Paul Riga
Job Code
BPE0341
Report Number
02
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© Urbis Pty Ltd
ABN 50 105 256 228
All Rights Reserved. No material may be reproduced without prior permission.
While we have tried to ensure the accuracy of the information in this publication,
the Publisher accepts no responsibility or liability for any errors, omissions or
resultant consequences including any loss or damage arising from reliance in
information in this publication.
URBIS
Australia Asia Middle East
urbis.com.au
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
Introduction.......................................................................................................................................3
1.1
Study Purpose and Approach .................................................................................................3
1.2
Report Outline .........................................................................................................................3
1.3
Report Limitations....................................................................................................................4
2
Target Housing Affordability Market ..............................................................................................5
2.1
Cumulative Affordability Table – Methodology ........................................................................5
2.1.1 Investor Purchase Price: .........................................................................................................5
2.1.2 Owner-Occupier Purchase Price:............................................................................................6
3
Greater Flagstone UDA....................................................................................................................7
4
Yarrabilba UDA ...............................................................................................................................10
5
Ripley Valley UDA...........................................................................................................................14
6
Caloundra South.............................................................................................................................18
Appendix A
Price Analysis Tables ..............................................................................................23
A.1 Greater Flagstone...........................................................................................................................24
A.2 Yarrabilba ........................................................................................................................................25
A.3 Ripley Valley ...................................................................................................................................26
A.4 Caloundra South.............................................................................................................................27
Appendix B
Graphs.......................................................................................................................28
B.1 Logan...............................................................................................................................................29
B.2 Ripley...............................................................................................................................................30
B.3 Sunshine Coast ..............................................................................................................................31
Appendix C
Former Caloundra South Development Application ............................................32
C.1 Former Owner Occupier Affordability Prices ..............................................................................33
C.2 Former Renter Affordability Prices...............................................................................................33
C.3 Former Anticipated Land and House Prices ...............................................................................34
TABLES:
Table 1 – Cumulative Affordability Table ........................................................................................................... 5
Table 2 – Estimated Allotment Pricing ............................................................................................................... 8
Table 3 – Sales Evidence – Active Projects ...................................................................................................... 8
Table 4 – Owner Occupier Affordability ............................................................................................................. 9
Table 5 – Renter Affordability ............................................................................................................................ 9
Table 6 – Estimated Allotment Pricing ............................................................................................................. 11
Table 7 – Sales Evidence – Active Projects .................................................................................................... 11
Table 8 – Owner Occupier Affordability ........................................................................................................... 12
Table 9 – Renter Affordability .......................................................................................................................... 13
Table 10 – Estimated Allotment Pricing ........................................................................................................... 15
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
Table 11 – Sales Evidence – Active Projects .................................................................................................. 15
Table 12 – Owner Occupier Affordability......................................................................................................... 16
Table 13 – Renter Affordability ........................................................................................................................ 17
Table 14 – Estimated Allotment Pricing........................................................................................................... 19
Table 15 – Sales Evidence – Active Projects .................................................................................................. 19
Table 16 – Owner Occupier Affordability......................................................................................................... 20
Table 17 – Renter Affordability ........................................................................................................................ 21
Table 18 – Owner Occupier Affordability Including 390 sqm Lot Size ............................................................. 21
Table 19 – Renter Affordability Including 390 sqm Lot Size ............................................................................ 22
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
1
Introduction
The Urban Land Development Authority (ULDA) is in the process of preparing Development Schemes for
its four Greenfield Urban Development Areas (UDAs) in South East Queensland (SEQ) – Ripley Valley,
Greater Flagstone, Yarrabilba, and Caloundra South. A key aim of the ULDA is to improve housing
affordability in selected urban areas. In light of this the ULDA has employed Urbis to examine the likely
affordability of house and land packages in the four SEQ Greenfield UDAs.
1.1
STUDY PURPOSE AND APPROACH
The purpose of this study is to independently review the ULDAs estimates for house and land pricing for
its four SEQ Greenfield UDAs for the range of potential detached housing products. Revise these
estimates where market information warrants revision and provide the supporting data for these
estimates. The final requirement of this study is to compare the potential UDA product pricing for the
current submitted development applications to the ULDAs target market for affordable housing.
Specifically this study has reviewed and analysed the following components in relation to the potential
housing product in the UDA locations:
ƒ
Affordability Assessment – identification of affordable housing prices for rental or purchase for the
ULDA target market
ƒ
Lot size – consideration of the average lot size and range of lot sizes across locations
ƒ
Land price – determination of land price based on comparable developments by lot size
ƒ
Dwelling size- based on previous ULDA experience (Fitzgibbon) and discussions with industry
participants
ƒ
Dwelling construction cost - based on previous ULDA experience and discussions with industry
participants
ƒ
House price – combination of land price estimates by lot size and house cost by house size
ƒ
Pricing relativity application – application of lot prices across the range of proposed lots in each UDA
based on the price relativity across lot sizes drawn from previous ULDA experience
ƒ
Lot mix and sizes from development applications lodged for each UDA
1.2
REPORT OUTLINE
The structure of this report principally follows the study approach, notably:
Chapter 1: Introduction – Study background, purpose and approach
Chapter 2: Target Housing Affordability Market – identifies the affordable dwelling price range for the
ULDAs target market
Chapter 3: Flagstone – Land and House price ranges for Flagstone and Affordability assessment
Chapter 4: Yarrabilba - Land and House price ranges for Yarrabilba and Affordability assessment
Chapter 5: Ripley Valley - Land and House price ranges for Ripley Valley and Affordability assessment
Chapter 6: Caloundra South - Land and House price ranges for Caloundra South and Affordability
assessment
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
INTRODUCTION
3
1.3
REPORT LIMITATIONS
This study is prepared on the instruction of the Urban Land Development Authority and is not suitable for
use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the report involves projections, it can be affected
by a number of unforseen variables. It represents for the party to whom it is addressed, the various
estimates of Urbis Pty Ltd but no assurance is given by Urbis Pty Ltd that the projections will be achieved.
This study has been prepared for the sole use of the Urban Land Development Authority and is not to be
relied upon by any third party for the purposes of financial investment without specific approval.
4
INTRODUCTION
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
2
Target Housing Affordability Market
The ULDA Affordable Housing Strategy (2009) targets households with incomes of between $40,000 and
$80,000 per annum. The 2009 strategy is being reviewed and the Proposed Development Schemes
states the ULDA Housing Strategy target income range is $41,000 to $94,000. This range represents the
incomes at which a single person and a family with three children (2 under 13 and 1 over 13) are not
eligible for Commonwealth Rental Assistance. Using an external reference will allow the income range to
be kept up to date.
Using these household income ranges it is possible to determine the price of a dwelling that is affordable
to these households either for rent or purchase.
Given current borrowing rates (7.78% - standard variable interest rate average for Big 4 banks), an
assessment of borrowing capacity (based on 35% of income), the $7,000 First Home Owners Grant, and
a 5% deposit, the affordable house price for the ULDA target market to purchase ranges from $178,375
to $413,417.
Using 30% of household income for rent and a 5% rental yield indicates the affordable house price range
for the ULDA target market to rent is between $239,342 and $568,438.
TABLE 1 – CUMULATIVE AFFORDABILITY TABLE
Cumulative Affordability Table
HOUSEHOLD INCOME - Interest rate of 7.78%
Affordability to Rent
Af fordability to Purchase
Household
Incom e1
Affordability
Ra te
Rent (W eekly)
House & Land
Price3
Affordability
Rate
Borrowing
4
FHOG
Deposit (5%)
House & Land
Price6
$40,000
3 0%
$230
$239,342
35%
$162,456
$7,000
$8,919
$178,375
$45,000
3 0%
$259
$269,260
35%
$182,780
$7,000
$9,988
$199,769
$50,000
3 0%
$288
$299,178
35%
$202,966
$7,000
$11 ,051
$221,016
$55,000
3 0%
$316
$329,096
35%
$223,290
$7,000
$12 ,121
$242,411
$60,000
3 0%
$345
$359,014
35%
$243,614
$7,000
$13 ,190
$263,805
$65,000
3 0%
$374
$388,932
35%
$263,939
$7,000
$14 ,260
$285,199
$70,000
3 0%
$403
$418,849
35%
$284,263
$7,000
$15 ,330
$306,593
$75,000
3 0%
$432
$448,767
35%
$304,588
$7,000
$16 ,399
$327,987
$80,000
3 0%
$460
$478,685
35%
$324,773
$7,000
$17 ,462
$349,235
$85,000
3 0%
$489
$508,603
35%
$345,097
$7,000
$18 ,531
$370,629
$90,000
3 0%
$518
$538,521
35%
$365,422
$7,000
$19 ,601
$392,023
$95,000
3 0%
$547
$568,438
35%
$385,746
$7,000
$20 ,671
$413,417
2
Capaci ty
5
1. Assumed Gross Household Income
2. Amount based on 30% of income
3. Amount based on weekly Affordability repayment at a required yield of 5%
4. Based on affordable mortgage repayment on a Principal and Interest Loan at 7.78% over a 30 year period.
5. Deposit calculated at 5% of borrowing capacity and F HOG
6. Calculated on sum of borrow ing capacity, FHOG and D eposit
Source : ULDA; Urbis
2.1
CUMULATIVE AFFORDABILITY TABLE – METHODOLOGY
The key steps and assumptions used to derive the housing affordability prices for the ULDA target market
for either rental or purchase are outlined below.
2.1.1
Investor Purchase Price:
ƒ
Applied the nominated affordability rate of 30% to the household income to ascertain a weekly rent
payment expense to the tenant.
ƒ
We then applied a 5% yield (assumed average yield) to the annualised rent/mortgage payment to
develop an investor purchase price.
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
TARGET HOUSING AFFORDABILITY MARKET
5
2.1.2
Owner-Occupier Purchase Price:
ƒ
Assessed affordable mortgage payment based on 35% of income.
ƒ
Defined the monthly mortgage payment expense by grossing up the weekly mortgage payment
expense.
ƒ
Convert mortgage payment capacity to borrowing capacity based on current interest rate and loan
term.
ƒ
Sum the indicated borrowing capacity and the first home-owners grant (FHOG) to develop the owneroccupier purchase price less deposit.
ƒ
Derive affordable housing price incorporating a 5% deposit. This is the total owner-occupier purchase
price.
6
TARGET HOUSING AFFORDABILITY MARKET
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
3
Greater Flagstone UDA
The assessment of house and land package prices estimated for the assessed development application
indicates that:
ƒ
For the households with incomes of $40,000 per annum, 0% of detached housing will be affordable to
purchase and 11% of detached housing will be affordable to rent, provided they are modest sized
homes
ƒ
For households with incomes of $60,000 per annum, approximately 11% of detached housing will be
affordable to purchase, provided that they are modest sized homes. Approximately 31-50% of
detached housing will be affordable to rent (depending on whether the homes are modest or large in
size).
ƒ
For household with incomes of $80,000 per annum, approximately 31-50% of detached housing will
be affordable to purchase and approximately 39-100% will be affordable to rent (both depending upon
whether the homes are modest or large in size).
ƒ
For household with incomes of $95,000 per annum, approximately 77-100% of detached housing will
be affordable to purchase and approximately 100% will be affordable to rent (both depending upon
whether the homes are modest or large in size).
For greater Flagstone, these results would appear to indicate that the ULDAs 25% affordability target1
should be focused on:
ƒ
Requiring a percentage of attached dwelling product that is affordable to purchase for households
with incomes of $40,000 to $60,000 per annum
ƒ
Maintaining on average, a mix that yields 20%+ affordable product to purchase or rent for households
with incomes in excess of $60,000 per annum.
21-Apr-11
1
For the Greater Flagstone UDA, the Implementation Strategy includes a target “Greater than 25% housing that is affordable to key
workers and first home buyers in accordance with the income targets in the ULDA draft Housing Guideline no. 16”
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
GREATER FLAGSTONE UDA
7
TABLE 2 – ESTIMATED ALLOTMENT PRICING
Estimated Allotment Pricing
GREATER FLAGSTONE UDA
1
2
Nominal Lot Size
Price Relativity
175
48%
$88,800
200
54%
$99,900
250
55%
$101,750
275
62%
$114,700
300
66%
$122,100
320
68%
$125,800
350
70%
$129,500
375
73%
$135,050
390
76%
$140,600
400
78%
$144,300
Lot Price
450
85%
$157,250
500
92%
$170,200
550
94%
$173,900
600
96%
$177,600
650
99%
$183,150
700
100%
$185,000
1. Based on Fitzgibbon Chase Case Study, March 2011
2. Based on vacant land sale prices from Flagstone Rise for 700 sqm lots
equating to $185,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
There are limited comparable developments in the Greater Flagstone area for comparison with the
Greater Flagstone UDA, specifically in relation to lot size. Flagstone Rise is the most comparable and the
minimum pricing of around $170,000 to $175,000 for a 600m2 lot has had a significant influence on the
estimated lot pricing for the Greater Flagstone UDA.
TABLE 3 – SALES EVIDENCE – ACTIVE PROJECTS
Project Transactions - Flagstone Rise
TRANSACTIONS VACANT LAND 2010
Area Range
600 sqm to 699 sqm
700 sqm to 799 sqm
800 sqm to 899 sqm
900 sqm to 999 sqm
1000 sqm to 1099 sqm
1200 sqm to 1299 sqm
At least 1400 sqm
Number of Median Lot Median
Sales
Size
Sale Price
2
3
19
1
1
1
5
631
710
801
910
1017
1202
2350
$167,500
$170,000
$171,000
$189,500
$194,000
$194,750
$227,500
Minimum
Lot Size
Maximum
Lot Size
624
705
800
910
1017
1202
2000
638
776
882
910
1017
1202
4000
Minimum Maximum
Sale Price Sale Price
$167,000
$169,000
$155,000
$189,500
$194,000
$194,750
$201,000
$168,000
$176,500
$192,000
$189,500
$194,000
$194,750
$259,500
Source : RPData and Developer Price Lists; Prepared by Urbis
8
GREATER FLAGSTONE UDA
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
TABLE 4 – OWNER OCCUPIER AFFORDABILITY
Anticipated House and Land Prices - Owner Occupier Affordability
GREATER FLAGSTONE UDA
$276,300
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Modest
Housing)
11%
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Large
Housing)
11%
$290,456
11%
11%
$331,820
20%
20%
$343,939
31%
31%
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
Land Size
No. of
5
Lots
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
12
11%
$208,800
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
0
0%
$227,554
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
10
9%
$272,303
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
12
11%
$291,717
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
9
8%
$309,587
$376,735
39%
39%
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
12
11%
$331,356
$403,046
50%
50%
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
30
27%
$385,447
$466,164
77%
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
0
0%
$393,900
$473,900
77%
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
26
23%
$417,600
$497,600
100%
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
0
0%
$443,150
$533,150
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$465,000
$585,000
No. of Lots Modest House Large House
(%)
and Land Price and Land Price
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Flagstone Rise for 700 sqm lots equating to $185,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Affordable for $40,000 per annum income households
5. Based on DA Dev2010/091, Lodged 01/12/2010
Affordable for $60,000 per annum income households
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Affordable for $80,000 per annum income households
Affordable for $95,000 per annum income households
TABLE 5 – RENTER AFFORDABILITY
Anticipated House and Land Prices - Renter Affordability
GREATER FLAGSTONE UDA
Cumulative
Cumulative
Large House and
Affordability Rate Affordability Rate
Land Price
(Modest Housing) (Large Housing)
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
Land Size
No. of
5
Lots
No. of Lots
(%)
Modest House
and Land Price
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
12
11%
$208,800
$276,300
11%
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
0
0%
$227,554
$290,456
11%
11%
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
10
9%
$272,303
$331,820
20%
20%
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
12
11%
$291,717
$343,939
31%
31%
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
9
8%
$309,587
$376,735
39%
39%
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
12
11%
$331,356
$403,046
50%
50%
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
30
27%
$385,447
$466,164
77%
77%
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
0
0%
$393,900
$473,900
77%
77%
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
26
23%
$417,600
$497,600
100%
100%
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
0
0%
$443,150
$533,150
100%
100%
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$465,000
$585,000
100%
11%
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Flagstone Rise for 700 sqm lots equating to $185,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Affordable for $40,000 per annum income households
5. Based on DA Dev2010/091, Lodged 01/12/2010
Affordable for $60,000 per annum income households
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Affordable for $80,000 per annum income households
Affordable for $95,000 per annum income households
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
GREATER FLAGSTONE UDA
9
4
Yarrabilba UDA
The assessment of house and land package prices estimated for the assessed development application
indicates that:
ƒ
For the households with incomes of $40,000 per annum, 0% of detached housing will be affordable to
purchase. Approximately 6% of detached housing will be affordable to rent, provided they are modest
sized homes.
ƒ
For households with incomes of $60,000 per annum, approximately 34% of detached housing will be
affordable to purchase, provided that they are modest sized homes. Approximately 38-67% of
detached housing will be affordable to rent (depending on whether the homes are modest or large in
size).
ƒ
For household with incomes of $80,000 per annum, approximately 38-67% of detached housing will
be affordable to purchase and approximately 60 -100% will be affordable to rent (both depending
upon whether the homes are modest or large in size).
ƒ
For household with incomes of $95,000 per annum, approximately 78-82% of detached housing will
be affordable to purchase and approximately 100% will be affordable to rent (both depending upon
whether the homes are modest or large in size).
For Yarrabilba, these results would appear to indicate that the ULDAs 25% affordability target2 should be
focused on:
ƒ
Requiring a percentage of attached and detached dwellings that are affordable to purchase for
households with incomes of $40,000 to $60,000 per annum
ƒ
Maintaining on average, a mix that yields 20%+ product affordable to purchase or rent for households
with incomes in excess of $60,000 per annum.
21-Apr-11
2
For the Yarrabilba UDA, the Implementation Strategy includes a target “Greater than 25% housing that is affordable to key workers
and first home buyers in accordance with the income targets in the ULDA draft Housing Guideline no. 16”
10
YARRABILBA UDA
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
TABLE 6 – ESTIMATED ALLOTMENT PRICING
Estimated Allotment Pricing
YARABILBA UDA
1
2
Nominal Lot Size
Price Relativity
175
48%
$86,400
200
54%
$97,200
250
55%
$99,000
275
62%
$111,600
300
66%
$118,800
320
68%
$122,400
350
70%
$126,000
375
73%
$131,400
390
76%
$136,800
400
78%
$140,400
Lot Price
450
85%
$153,000
500
92%
$165,600
550
94%
$169,200
600
96%
$172,800
650
99%
$178,200
700
100%
$180,000
1. Based on Fitzgibbon Chase Case Study, March 2011
2. Based on vacant land sale prices from Woodlands and Flagstone Rise
for 700 sqm lots equating to $180,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
The Yarrabilba UDA lot pricing is influenced by Flagstone Rise and Woodlands. Woodlands is a large
scale, award winning affordable residential development at Waterford midway between the Brisbane CBD
and Gold Coast. We have assessed the Yarrabilba UDA as having a 15-20% discount to Woodlands
whilst also being influenced by the minimum lot pricing at Flagstone Rise.
TABLE 7 – SALES EVIDENCE – ACTIVE PROJECTS
Project Transactions - Woodlands
TRANSACTIONS VACANT LAND 2010
Area Range
200 sqm to 249 sqm
250 sqm to 299 sqm
300 sqm to 349 sqm
350 sqm to 399 sqm
400 sqm to 449 sqm
450 sqm to 499 sqm
500 sqm to 549 sqm
550 sqm to 599 sqm
At least 600 sqm
Number of Median Lot Median
Sales
Size
Sale Price
5
6
22
8
24
16
5
7
31
240
276
320
369
441
464
523
563
645
$117,000
$143,750
$156,500
$155,000
$176,000
$192,000
$197,000
$197,000
$227,000
Minimum
Lot Size
Maximum
Lot Size
237
276
304
353
400
456
503
554
608
240
291
349
393
449
499
534
595
989
Minimum Maximum
Sale Price Sale Price
$117,000
$119,000
$127,000
$129,000
$150,000
$149,500
$192,000
$173,000
$180,000
$133,000
$147,500
$172,000
$167,000
$223,000
$205,000
$198,000
$212,000
$380,000
Source : RPData and Developer Price Lists; Prepared by Urbis
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
YARRABILBA UDA
11
Project Transactions - Flagstone Rise
TRANSACTIONS VACANT LAND 2010
Number of Median Lot Median
Sales
Size
Sale Price
Area Range
600 sqm to 699 sqm
700 sqm to 799 sqm
800 sqm to 899 sqm
900 sqm to 999 sqm
1000 sqm to 1099 sqm
1200 sqm to 1299 sqm
At least 1400 sqm
2
3
19
1
1
1
5
631
710
801
910
1017
1202
2350
$167,500
$170,000
$171,000
$189,500
$194,000
$194,750
$227,500
Minimum
Lot Size
Maximum
Lot Size
624
705
800
910
1017
1202
2000
638
776
882
910
1017
1202
4000
Minimum Maximum
Sale Price Sale Price
$167,000
$169,000
$155,000
$189,500
$194,000
$194,750
$201,000
$168,000
$176,500
$192,000
$189,500
$194,000
$194,750
$259,500
Source : RPData and Developer Price Lists; Prepared by Urbis
TABLE 8 – OWNER OCCUPIER AFFORDABILITY
Anticipated House and Land Prices - Owner Occupier Affordability
YARABILBA UDA
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Modest
Housing)
6%
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Large
Housing)
6%
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
Land Size
No. of
5
Lots
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
26
6%
$206,400
$273,900
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
0
0%
$224,804
$287,706
6%
6%
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
123
28%
$268,903
$328,420
34%
34%
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
17
4%
$288,067
$340,289
38%
38%
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
97
22%
$305,687
$372,835
60%
60%
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
29
7%
$327,106
$398,796
67%
67%
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
50
11%
$380,847
$461,564
78%
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
17
4%
$389,200
$469,200
82%
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
0
0%
$412,800
$492,800
82%
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
79
18%
$438,200
$528,200
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$460,000
$580,000
No. of Lots Modest House Large House
(%)
and Land Price and Land Price
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Woodlands and Flagstone Rise for 700 sqm lots equating to $180,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Affordable for $40,000 per annum income households
5. Based on DA Dev2010/089, Lodged 01/12/2010
Affordable for $60,000 per annum income households
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Affordable for $80,000 per annum income households
Affordable for $95,000 per annum income households
12
YARRABILBA UDA
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
TABLE 9 – RENTER AFFORDABILITY
Anticipated House and Land Prices - Renter Affordability
YARABILBA UDA
Cumulative
Cumulative
Large House and
Affordability Rate Affordability Rate
Land Price
(Modest Housing) (Large Housing)
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
Land Size
No. of
5
Lots
No. of Lots
(%)
Modest House
and Land Price
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
26
6%
$206,400
$273,900
6%
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
0
0%
$224,804
$287,706
6%
6%
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
123
28%
$268,903
$328,420
34%
34%
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
17
4%
$288,067
$340,289
38%
38%
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
97
22%
$305,687
$372,835
60%
60%
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
29
7%
$327,106
$398,796
67%
67%
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
50
11%
$380,847
$461,564
78%
78%
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
17
4%
$389,200
$469,200
82%
82%
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
0
0%
$412,800
$492,800
82%
82%
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
79
18%
$438,200
$528,200
100%
100%
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$460,000
$580,000
100%
6%
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Woodlands and Flagstone Rise for 700 sqm lots equating to $180,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Affordable for $40,000 per annum income households
5. Based on DA Dev2010/089, Lodged 01/12/2010
Affordable for $60,000 per annum income households
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Affordable for $80,000 per annum income households
Affordable for $95,000 per annum income households
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
YARRABILBA UDA
13
5
Ripley Valley UDA
The assessment of house and land package prices estimated for the assessed development application
indicates that:
ƒ
For the households with incomes of $40,000 per annum, 0% of detached housing will be affordable to
purchase and 5% of detached housing will be affordable to rent, provided they are modest sized
homes.
ƒ
For households with incomes of $60,000 per annum, approximately 5% of detached housing will be
affordable to purchase, provided that they are modest sized homes. Approximately 47-100% of
detached housing will be affordable to rent (depending on whether the homes are modest or large in
size).
ƒ
For households with incomes of $80,000 per annum, approximately 24-72% of detached housing will
be affordable to purchase and approximately 47-100% will be affordable to rent (both depending upon
whether the homes are modest or large in size).
ƒ
For households with incomes of $95,000 per annum, approximately 72-80% of detached housing will
be affordable to purchase and approximately 100% will be affordable to rent (both depending upon
whether the homes are modest or large in size).
ƒ
For Ripley Valley, these results would appear to indicate that the ULDAs 25% affordability target3 should
be focused on:
ƒ
Requiring a percentage of attached dwellings that are affordable to purchase for households with
incomes of $40,000 to $60,000 per annum
ƒ
Maintaining on average, a mix that yields 20%+ product affordable to purchase or rent for households
with incomes in excess of $60,000 per annum.
21-Apr-11
3
For the Ripley Valley UDA, the Implementation Strategy includes a target “Greater than 25% housing that is affordable to key
workers and first home buyers in accordance with the income targets in the ULDA draft Housing Guideline no. 16”
14
RIPLEY VALLEY UDA
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
TABLE 10 – ESTIMATED ALLOTMENT PRICING
Estimated Allotment Pricing
RIPLEY VALLEY UDA
1
2
Nominal Lot Size
Price Relativity
175
48%
$96,960
200
54%
$109,080
250
55%
$111,100
275
62%
$125,240
300
66%
$133,320
320
68%
$137,360
350
70%
$141,400
375
73%
$147,460
390
76%
$153,520
400
78%
$157,560
Lot Price
450
85%
$171,700
500
92%
$185,840
550
94%
$189,880
600
96%
$193,920
650
99%
$199,980
700
100%
$202,000
1. Based on Fitzgibbon Chase Case Study, March 2011
2. Based on vacant land sale prices from Springfield Lakes and Cedar
View for a 700 sqm lots equating to $202,000 and ULDA Price Relativity
Table
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
The estimated lot prices for the Ripley Valley UDA are influenced by pricing at Springfield Lakes in
Greater Springfield and Cedar View at Redbank Plains. Both developments reflect comparably affordable
pricing for 320m2 lots (circa $160,000) with Springfield Lakes achieving notably higher prices for its larger
lots ($229,000 for 705m2) and lower prices for its smaller lots ($105,000 for 240m2, though on limited
sales).
TABLE 11 – SALES EVIDENCE – ACTIVE PROJECTS
Project Transactions - Springfield Lakes
TRANSACTIONS VACANT LAND 2010
Area Range
200 sqm to 249 sqm
250 sqm to 299 sqm
300 sqm to 349 sqm
350 sqm to 399 sqm
400 sqm to 449 sqm
450 sqm to 499 sqm
500 sqm to 549 sqm
550 sqm to 599 sqm
At least 600 sqm
Number of Median Lot Median
Sales
Size
Sale Price
2
2
78
20
44
15
10
9
35
240
277
320
368
412.5
480
516
567
705
$105,000
$129,500
$162,000
$175,000
$179,900
$199,000
$208,500
$215,000
$229,000
Minimum
Lot Size
Maximum
Lot Size
240
259
300
350
400
450
502
558
603
240
295
344
396
448
495
548
598
994
Minimum Maximum
Sale Price Sale Price
$105,000
$109,000
$132,000
$125,000
$139,000
$172,000
$192,000
$199,000
$179,000
$105,000
$150,000
$222,500
$209,000
$245,000
$285,000
$255,000
$269,000
$400,000
Source : RPData and Developer Price Lists; Prepared by Urbis
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
RIPLEY VALLEY UDA
15
Project Transactions - Cedar View Redbank Plains
TRANSACTIONS VACANT LAND 2010
Area Range
Number of Median Lot Median
Sales
Size
Sale Price
250 sqm to 299 sqm
300 sqm to 349 sqm
350 sqm to 399 sqm
400 sqm to 449 sqm
450 sqm to 499 sqm
500 sqm to 549 sqm
550 sqm to 599 sqm
At least 600 sqm
5
19
20
38
16
10
7
2
295
323
375
419
482.5
519
569
718.5
Minimum
Lot Size
Maximum
Lot Size
294
311
350
400
452
500
554
717
295
348
399
449
498
549
596
720
$149,000
$159,900
$167,900
$172,900
$179,400
$183,000
$183,900
$176,900
Minimum Maximum
Sale Price Sale Price
$142,900
$149,900
$152,900
$150,000
$159,900
$174,900
$177,900
$176,900
$167,900
$173,900
$180,900
$180,900
$193,900
$189,900
$187,900
$176,900
Source : RPData and Developer Price Lists; Prepared by Urbis
Table 12 – Owner Occupier Affordability
Anticipated House and Land Prices - Owner Occupier Affordability
RIPLEY VALLEY UDA
No. of
5
Lots
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Modest
Housing)
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Large
Housing)
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
Land Size
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
0
0%
$216,960
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
22
5%
$236,904
$299,806
5%
5%
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
86
19%
$283,863
$343,380
24%
24%
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
62
14%
$304,127
$356,349
38%
38%
No. of Lots Modest House Large House
(%)
and Land Price and Land Price
$284,460
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
41
9%
$322,847
$389,995
47%
47%
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
113
25%
$345,806
$417,496
72%
72%
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
21
5%
$401,087
$481,804
76%
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
15
3%
$409,880
$489,880
80%
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
72
16%
$433,920
$513,920
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
19
4%
$459,980
$549,980
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
1
0%
$482,000
$602,000
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Springfield Lakes and Cedar View for a 700 sqm lots equating to $202,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Affordable for $40,000 per annum income households
5. Based on DA Dev2010/084, Lodged 11/11/2010
Affordable for $60,000 per annum income households
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Affordable for $80,000 per annum income households
Affordable for $95,000 per annum income households
16
RIPLEY VALLEY UDA
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
TABLE 13 – RENTER AFFORDABILITY
Anticipated House and Land Prices - Renter Affordability
RIPLEY VALLEY UDA
No. of
5
Lots
No. of Lots
(%)
Modest House
and Land Price
Cumulative
Cumulative
Large House and
Affordability Rate Affordability Rate
Land Price
(Modest Housing) (Large Housing)
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
Land Size
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
0
0%
$216,960
$284,460
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
22
5%
$236,904
$299,806
5%
5%
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
86
19%
$283,863
$343,380
24%
24%
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
62
14%
$304,127
$356,349
38%
38%
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
41
9%
$322,847
$389,995
47%
47%
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
113
25%
$345,806
$417,496
72%
72%
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
21
5%
$401,087
$481,804
76%
76%
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
15
3%
$409,880
$489,880
80%
80%
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
72
16%
$433,920
$513,920
96%
96%
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
19
4%
$459,980
$549,980
100%
100%
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
1
0%
$482,000
$602,000
100%
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Springfield Lakes and Cedar View for a 700 sqm lots equating to $202,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Affordable for $40,000 per annum income households
5. Based on DA Dev2010/084, Lodged 11/11/2010
Affordable for $60,000 per annum income households
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Affordable for $80,000 per annum income households
Affordable for $95,000 per annum income households
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
RIPLEY VALLEY UDA
17
6
Caloundra South
The following analysis is based on the most recent development application released by Stockland for the
Caloundra South UDA in April 2011. The analysis of the previous Caloundra South development
application is included within Appendix C of this report.
The assessment of house and land package prices estimated for the assessed development application
indicates that:
ƒ
For the households with incomes of $40,000 per annum, 0% of detached housing will be affordable to
purchase or to rent.
ƒ
For households with incomes of $60,000 per annum, approximately 5% of detached housing will be
affordable to purchase, provided that they are modest sized homes. Approximately 9-20% of
detached housing will be affordable to rent (depending on whether the homes are modest of large in
size).
ƒ
For household with incomes of $80,000 per annum, approximately 9-20% of detached housing will be
affordable to purchase and approximately 20-89% will be affordable to rent (both depending upon
whether the homes are modest or large in size).
ƒ
For household with incomes of $95,000 per annum, approximately 20-88% of detached housing will
be affordable to purchase and approximately 88-100% will be affordable to rent (both depending upon
whether the homes are modest or large in size).
For Caloundra South, these results would appear to indicate that the ULDA 25% affordability target4
should be focused on:
ƒ
Requiring a percentage of attached dwellings that are affordable to rent for households with incomes
of $40,000 to $60,000 per annum and
ƒ
Ensuring a sufficient mix and provision of suitably sized detached housing product is produced that
delivers affordable outcomes for household incomes between $60,000 and $80,000 per annum.
21-Apr-11
4
For the Caloundra South UDA, the Implementation Strategy includes a target “Greater than 25% housing that is affordable to key
workers and first home buyers in accordance with the income targets in the ULDA draft Housing Guideline no. 16”
18
CALOUNDRA SOUTH
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
TABLE 14 – ESTIMATED ALLOTMENT PRICING
Estimated Allotment Pricing
CALOUNDRA SOUTH UDA
1
2
Nominal Lot Size
Price Relativity
175
48%
$135,360
200
54%
$152,280
250
55%
$155,100
275
62%
$174,840
300
66%
$186,120
320
68%
$191,760
350
70%
$197,400
375
73%
$205,860
390
76%
$214,320
400
78%
$219,960
Lot Price
450
85%
$239,700
500
92%
$259,440
550
94%
$265,080
600
96%
$270,720
650
99%
$279,180
700
100%
$282,000
1. Based on Fitzgibbon Chase Case Study, March 2011
2. Based on vacant land sale prices from Ivadale Lakes, Creekwood,
Bellflower and Brightwater for 450 sqm lots equating to $240,000 and
ULDA Price Relativity Table
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Estimated lot pricing for the Caloundra South UDA have been based on comparable developments such
as Creekwood and Ivadale Lakes at Meridan Plains, Brightwater at Mountain Creek, and Perigian Springs
at Perigian. Examination of sales at Bellflower at Sippy Downs was also undertaken.
TABLE 15 – SALES EVIDENCE – ACTIVE PROJECTS
Project Transactions - Creekwood
TRANSACTIONS VACANT LAND 2010
Area Range
300 sqm to 399 sqm
500 sqm to 599 sqm
600 sqm to 699 sqm
Number of Median Lot Median
Sales
Size
Sale Price
3
5
8
350
576
606
$214,900
$249,900
$296,400
Minimum
Lot Size
Maximum
Lot Size
Minimum Maximum
Sale Price Sale Price
350
561
602
350
576
632
$204,900 $214,900
$234,900 $252,900
$246,900 $329,900
Minimum
Lot Size
Maximum
Lot Size
Minimum Maximum
Sale Price Sale Price
400
600
739
495
697
792
$198,000 $460,000
$235,000 $290,000
$235,000 $250,000
Source : RPData and Developer Price Lists; Prepared by Urbis
Project Transactions - Ivadale Lakes
TRANSACTIONS VACANT LAND 2010
Area Range
400 sqm to 499 sqm
600 sqm to 699 sqm
700 sqm to 799 sqm
Number of Median Lot Median
Sales
Size
Sale Price
27
13
2
450
600
765.5
$250,000
$265,000
$242,500
Source : RPData and Developer Price Lists; Prepared by Urbis
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
CALOUNDRA SOUTH
19
Project Transactions - Brightwater
TRANSACTIONS VACANT LAND 2010
Area Range
Number of Median Lot Median
Sales
Size
Sale Price
300 sqm to 399 sqm
400 sqm to 499 sqm
500 sqm to 599 sqm
600 sqm to 699 sqm
700 sqm to 799 sqm
31
39
24
33
4
360
450
568
600
756
Minimum
Lot Size
Maximum
Lot Size
350
409
508
600
712
392
492
599
689
794
Minimum
Lot Size
Maximum
Lot Size
660
714
815
935
1139
680
714
881
998
1139
$229,000
$252,000
$269,500
$273,000
$276,000
Minimum Maximum
Sale Price Sale Price
$218,500
$221,000
$239,400
$240,000
$252,000
$243,000
$266,000
$325,000
$305,000
$312,000
Source : RPData and Developer Price Lists; Prepared by Urbis
Project Transactions - Perigian Springs
TRANSACTIONS VACANT LAND 2010
Area Range
Number of Median Lot Median
Sales
Size
Sale Price
600 sqm to 699 sqm
700 sqm to 799 sqm
800 sqm to 899 sqm
900 sqm to 999 sqm
At least 1000 sqm
12
12
15
23
1
680
714
846
972
1139
$320,000
$325,000
$570,000
$700,000
$340,000
Minimum Maximum
Sale Price Sale Price
$286,000
$325,000
$340,000
$680,000
$340,000
$320,000
$325,000
$770,000
$800,000
$340,000
Source : RPData and Developer Price Lists; Prepared by Urbis
Table 16 – Owner Occupier Affordability
Anticipated House and Land Prices - Owner Occupier Affordability
CALOUNDRA SOUTH UDA
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Modest
Housing)
5%
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Large
Housing)
5%
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
Land Size
No. of
5
Lots
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
34
5%
$255,360
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
27
4%
$280,904
$343,806
9%
9%
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
78
11%
$338,263
$397,780
20%
20%
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
152
21%
$362,527
$414,749
41%
41%
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
186
26%
$385,247
$452,395
67%
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
143
20%
$413,806
$485,496
88%
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
11
2%
$474,687
$555,404
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
55
8%
$485,080
$565,080
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
22
3%
$510,720
$590,720
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
0
0%
$539,180
$629,180
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$562,000
$682,000
No. of Lots Modest House Large House
(%)
and Land Price and Land Price
$322,860
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Ivadale Lakes, Creekwood, Bellflower and Brightwater for 450 sqm lots equating to $240,000 & ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Affordable for $40,000 per annum income households
5. Based on DA Dev2010/100, Lodged 01/12/2010
Affordable for $60,000 per annum income households
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Affordable for $80,000 per annum income households
Affordable for $95,000 per annum income households
20
CALOUNDRA SOUTH
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
TABLE 17 – RENTER AFFORDABILITY
Anticipated House and Land Prices - Renter Affordability
CALOUNDRA SOUTH UDA
Cumulative
Cumulative
Large House and
Affordability Rate Affordability Rate
Land Price
(Modest Housing) (Large Housing)
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
Land Size
No. of
5
Lots
No. of Lots
(%)
Modest House
and Land Price
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
34
5%
$255,360
$322,860
5%
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
27
4%
$280,904
$343,806
9%
9%
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
78
11%
$338,263
$397,780
20%
20%
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
152
21%
$362,527
$414,749
41%
41%
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
186
26%
$385,247
$452,395
67%
67%
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
143
20%
$413,806
$485,496
88%
88%
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
11
2%
$474,687
$555,404
89%
89%
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
55
8%
$485,080
$565,080
97%
97%
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
22
3%
$510,720
$590,720
100%
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
0
0%
$539,180
$629,180
100%
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$562,000
$682,000
100%
5%
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Ivadale Lakes, Creekwood, Bellflower and Brightwater for 450 sqm lots equating to $240,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Affordable for $40,000 per annum income households
5. Based on DA Dev2010/100, Lodged 01/12/2010
Affordable for $60,000 per annum income households
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Affordable for $80,000 per annum income households
Affordable for $95,000 per annum income households
TABLE 18 – OWNER OCCUPIER AFFORDABILITY INCLUDING 390 SQM LOT SIZE
A n t ici p a t e d H o u se a n d La n d Pr i ce s - O w n e r O ccu p i e r A f f o r d a b i li t y In clu d
CA LO U N D RA SO U TH U D A
Nominal Lot Range
150 sqm
250 sqm
300 sqm
350 sqm
350 sqm
400 sqm
450 sqm
500 sqm
550 sqm
600 sqm
650 sqm
700 sqm
to 199 sqm
to 299 sqm
to 349 sqm
to 399 sqm
to 399 sqm
to 449 sqm
to 499 sqm
to 549 sqm
to 599 sqm
to 649 sqm
to 699 sqm
to 749 sqm
Nominal Land
Size
No. of Lots
No. of Lots (%)
175
250
320
375
390
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
28
37
119
106
127
85
28
71
42
0
0
0
4%
6%
19%
16%
20%
13%
4%
11%
7%
0%
0%
0%
Cumulative
Modest House Large House and Affordability
Rate (Modest
and Land Price
Land Price
Housing)
$277,956
$280,904
$338,263
$362,527
$376,560
$385,247
$413,806
$474,687
$485,080
$510,720
$539,180
$562,000
$358,166
$343,806
$397,780
$414,749
$432,720
$452,395
$485,496
$555,404
$565,080
$590,720
$629,180
$682,000
4%
10%
29%
45%
65%
78%
82%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Large
Housing)
4%
10%
29%
45%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Ivadale Lakes, Creekwood, Bellflower and Brightwater for 450 sqm lots equating to $240,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
CALOUNDRA SOUTH
21
Table 19 – Renter Affordability Including 390 sqm Lot Size
A n t icip a t e d H o u se a n d La n d Pr ice s - Re n t e r A f f o r d a b ilit y In clu d in g 390 s
CA LO U N D RA SO U TH U D A
Nominal Lot Range
150 sqm
250 sqm
300 sqm
350 sqm
350 sqm
400 sqm
450 sqm
500 sqm
550 sqm
600 sqm
650 sqm
700 sqm
to 199 sqm
to 299 sqm
to 349 sqm
to 399 sqm
to 399 sqm
to 449 sqm
to 499 sqm
to 549 sqm
to 599 sqm
to 649 sqm
to 699 sqm
to 749 sqm
Nominal Land
Size
No. of Lots
No. of Lots (%)
175
250
320
375
390
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
28
37
119
106
127
85
28
71
42
0
0
0
4%
6%
19%
16%
20%
13%
4%
11%
7%
0%
0%
0%
Cumulative
Modest House Large House and Affordability
and Land Price
Land Price
Rate (Modest
Housing)
$277,956
$280,904
$338,263
$362,527
$376,560
$385,247
$413,806
$474,687
$485,080
$510,720
$539,180
$562,000
$358,166
$343,806
$397,780
$414,749
$432,720
$452,395
$485,496
$555,404
$565,080
$590,720
$629,180
$682,000
4%
10%
29%
45%
65%
78%
82%
93%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Large
Housing)
4%
10%
29%
45%
65%
78%
82%
93%
100%
-
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Ivadale Lakes, Creekwood, Bellflower and Brightwater for 450 sqm lots equating to $240,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
22
CALOUNDRA SOUTH
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
Appendix A
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
Price Analysis Tables
APPENDICES
23
A.1
Greater Flagstone
A n t i c i p a t e d La n d a n d H o u se Pr i ce s
G RE A T E R FL A G ST O N E
Nominal Lot Rang e
Nomin al
No. of Lots
No . of Lots
Land Size
(%)
Land Sale
Price1
Median
House
Contract
Price3
Anticipated
Build Cost
(per sqm)
Median
House
Size2
Modest
House
Si ze4
La rge
Ho use
Size4
Modest
House
Pri ce
Large
House
Pr ice
Median
Modest
L arge
House
House and House and
Land Pr ice Land Price Lan d Price
15 0 sqm to 199 sqm
175
12
11%
$88,800
$185,375
1,500
104
80
125
$120,00 0
$187,500
$2 74,175
$208,800
25 0 sqm to 299 sqm
250
0
0%
$101,750
$179,900
1,258
143
100
150
$125,80 4
$188,706
$2 81,650
$227,554
$290,456
30 0 sqm to 349 sqm
320
10
9%
$125,800
$201,442
1,145
176
128
180
$146,50 3
$206,020
$3 27,242
$272,303
$331,820
35 0 sqm to 399 sqm
375
12
11%
$135,050
$206,800
1,044
198
150
200
$156,66 7
$208,889
$3 41,850
$291,717
$343,939
40 0 sqm to 449 sqm
400
9
8%
$144,300
$208,675
1,033
202
160
225
$165,28 7
$232,435
$3 52,975
$309,587
$376,735
45 0 sqm to 499 sqm
450
12
11%
$157,250
$237,603
1,024
232
170
240
$174,10 6
$245,796
$3 94,853
$331,356
$403,046
50 0 sqm to 549 sqm
500
30
27%
$170,200
$240,000
1,076
223
200
275
$215,24 7
$295,964
$4 10,200
$385,447
$466,164
55 0 sqm to 599 sqm
550
0
0%
$173,900
$252,000
1,000
252
220
300
$220,00 0
$300,000
$4 25,900
$393,900
$473,900
60 0 sqm to 649 sqm
600
26
23%
$177,600
$270,000
1,000
270
240
320
$240,00 0
$320,000
$4 47,600
$417,600
$497,600
65 0 sqm to 699 sqm
650
0
0%
$183,150
$305,000
1,000
305
260
350
$260,00 0
$350,000
$4 88,150
$443,150
$533,150
70 0 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$185,000
$340,000
1,000
340
280
400
$280,00 0
$400,000
$5 25,000
$465,000
$585,000
24
APPENDICES
$276,300
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
A.2
Yarrabilba
Anticipated Land and House Prices
YARRABILBA
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
No. of Lots
No. of Lots
Land Size
(%)
26
6%
Land Sale
Price1
Median
House
Contract
Price3
Anticipated
Build Cost
(per sqm)
Median
House
Size2
Modest
House
Size4
Large
House
Size4
Modest
House
Price
Large
House
Price
$86,400
$185,375
1,500
104
80
125
$120,000
$187,500
Median
Modest
Large
House
House and House and
Land Price Land Price Land Price
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
$271,775
$206,400
$273,900
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
0
0%
$99,000
$179,900
1,258
143
100
150
$125,804
$188,706
$278,900
$224,804
$287,706
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
123
28%
$122,400
$201,442
1,145
176
128
180
$146,503
$206,020
$323,842
$268,903
$328,420
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
17
4%
$131,400
$206,800
1,044
198
150
200
$156,667
$208,889
$338,200
$288,067
$340,289
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
97
22%
$140,400
$208,675
1,033
202
160
225
$165,287
$232,435
$349,075
$305,687
$372,835
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
29
7%
$153,000
$237,603
1,024
232
170
240
$174,106
$245,796
$390,603
$327,106
$398,796
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
50
11%
$165,600
$240,000
1,076
223
200
275
$215,247
$295,964
$405,600
$380,847
$461,564
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
17
4%
$169,200
$252,000
1,000
252
220
300
$220,000
$300,000
$421,200
$389,200
$469,200
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
0
0%
$172,800
$270,000
1,000
270
240
320
$240,000
$320,000
$442,800
$412,800
$492,800
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
79
18%
$178,200
$305,000
1,000
305
260
350
$260,000
$350,000
$483,200
$438,200
$528,200
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$180,000
$340,000
1,000
340
280
400
$280,000
$400,000
$520,000
$460,000
$580,000
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
APPENDICES
25
A.3
Ripley Valley
Anticipated Land and House Prices
RIPLEY VALLEY
Nominal Lot Range
150 sqm to 199 sqm
Nominal
No. of Lots
No. of Lots
Land Size
(%)
175
0
0%
Land Sale
Price1
Median
House
Contract
Price3
Anticipated
Build Cost
(per sqm)
Median
House
Size2
Modest
House
Size4
Large
House
Size4
Modest
House
Price
Large
House
Price
$96,960
$185,375
1,500
104
80
125
$120,000
$187,500
Median
Modest
Large
House
House and House and
Land Price Land Price Land Price
$282,335
$216,960
$284,460
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
22
5%
$111,100
$179,900
1,258
143
100
150
$125,804
$188,706
$291,000
$236,904
$299,806
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
86
19%
$137,360
$201,442
1,145
176
128
180
$146,503
$206,020
$338,802
$283,863
$343,380
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
62
14%
$147,460
$206,800
1,044
198
150
200
$156,667
$208,889
$354,260
$304,127
$356,349
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
41
9%
$157,560
$208,675
1,033
202
160
225
$165,287
$232,435
$366,235
$322,847
$389,995
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
113
25%
$171,700
$237,603
1,024
232
170
240
$174,106
$245,796
$409,303
$345,806
$417,496
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
21
5%
$185,840
$240,000
1,076
223
200
275
$215,247
$295,964
$425,840
$401,087
$481,804
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
15
3%
$189,880
$252,000
1,000
252
220
300
$220,000
$300,000
$441,880
$409,880
$489,880
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
72
16%
$193,920
$270,000
1,000
270
240
320
$240,000
$320,000
$463,920
$433,920
$513,920
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
19
4%
$199,980
$305,000
1,000
305
260
350
$260,000
$350,000
$504,980
$459,980
$549,980
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
1
0%
$202,000
$340,000
1,000
340
280
400
$280,000
$400,000
$542,000
$482,000
$602,000
26
APPENDICES
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
A.4
Caloundra South
Anticipated Land and House Prices
CALOUNDRA SOUTH UDA
Nominal Lot Range
150 sqm to 199 sqm
No. of Lots
Nominal
No. of Lots
Land Size
(%)
175
34
5%
Land Sale
Price1
Median
House
Contract
Price3
Anticipated
Build Cost
(per sqm)
Median
House
Size2
Modest
House
Size4
Large
House
Size4
Modest
House
Price
Large
House
Price
$135,360
$185,375
1,500
104
80
125
$120,000
$187,500
Median
Modest
Large
House
House and House and
Land Price Land Price Land Price
$320,735
$255,360
$322,860
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
27
4%
$155,100
$179,900
1,258
143
100
150
$125,804
$188,706
$335,000
$280,904
$343,806
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
78
11%
$191,760
$201,442
1,145
176
128
180
$146,503
$206,020
$393,202
$338,263
$397,780
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
152
21%
$205,860
$206,800
1,044
198
150
200
$156,667
$208,889
$412,660
$362,527
$414,749
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
186
26%
$219,960
$208,675
1,033
202
160
225
$165,287
$232,435
$428,635
$385,247
$452,395
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
143
20%
$239,700
$237,603
1,024
232
170
240
$174,106
$245,796
$477,303
$413,806
$485,496
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
11
2%
$259,440
$240,000
1,076
223
200
275
$215,247
$295,964
$499,440
$474,687
$555,404
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
55
8%
$265,080
$252,000
1,000
252
220
300
$220,000
$300,000
$517,080
$485,080
$565,080
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
22
3%
$270,720
$270,000
1,000
270
240
320
$240,000
$320,000
$540,720
$510,720
$590,720
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
0
0%
$279,180
$305,000
1,000
305
260
350
$260,000
$350,000
$584,180
$539,180
$629,180
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$282,000
$340,000
1,000
340
280
400
$280,000
$400,000
$622,000
$562,000
$682,000
0
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Ivadale Lakes, Creekwood, Bellflower and Brightwater for 450 sqm lots equating to $240,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
APPENDICES
27
Appendix B
28
Graphs
APPENDICES Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
B.1
Logan
Distribution of Vacant Land Price - Logan LGA
JANUARY 2010 to DECEMBER 2010 (Settled Vacant Land)
50%
44%
Proportion of Vacant Land Sales
45%
40%
34%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
7%
3%
6%
4%
1%
2%
0%
Less than $150,000 to $200,000 to $250,000 to $300,000 to $350,000 to $400,000 to At least
$150,000 $199,999 $249,999 $299,999 $349,999 $399,999 $449,999 $450,000
Price Bracket
Source : RPData Prepared by Urbis
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
APPENDICES
29
B.2
Ripley
Distribution of Vacant Land Price - Ipswich LGA
JANUARY 2010 to DECEMBER 2010 (Settled Vacant Land)
80%
69%
Proportion of Vacant Land Sales
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
15%
8%
4%
1%
0%
0%
3%
0%
Less than $150,000 to $200,000 to $250,000 to $300,000 to $350,000 to $400,000 to At least
$150,000 $199,999 $249,999 $299,999
$349,999 $399,999 $449,999 $450,000
Price Bracket
Source : RPData Prepared by Urbis
30
APPENDICES Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
B.3
Sunshine Coast
Distribution of Vacant Land Price - Sunsine Coast LGA
JANUARY 2010 to DECEMBER 2010 (Settled Vacant Land)
30%
Proportion of Vacant Land Sales
26%
27%
25%
20%
17%
15%
13%
10%
10%
6%
5%
0%
1%
Less than
$100000
$100000 to
$149999
0%
$150,000 to
$199,999
$200,000 to
$249,999
$250,000 to
$299,999
$300,000 to
$349,999
$350,000 to
$399,999
At least
$400,000
Price Bracket
Source : RPData Prepared by Urbis
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
APPENDICES
31
Appendix C
32
Former Caloundra South Development
Application
APPENDICES Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
C.1
Former Owner Occupier Affordability Prices
Anticipated House and Land Prices - Owner Occupier Affordability
CALOUNDRA SOUTH UDA
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Modest
Housing)
4%
Cumulative
Affordability
Rate (Large
Housing)
4%
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
Land Size
No. of
5
Lots
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
28
4%
$255,360
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
37
6%
$280,904
$343,806
10%
10%
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
119
19%
$338,263
$397,780
29%
29%
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
106
16%
$362,527
$414,749
45%
45%
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
212
33%
$385,247
$452,395
78%
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
28
4%
$413,806
$485,496
82%
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
71
11%
$474,687
$555,404
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
42
7%
$485,080
$565,080
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
0
0%
$510,720
$590,720
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
0
0%
$539,180
$629,180
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$562,000
$682,000
No. of Lots Modest House Large House
(%)
and Land Price and Land Price
$322,860
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Ivadale Lakes, Creekwood, Bellflower and Brightwater for 450 sqm lots equating to $240,000 & ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Affordable for $40,000 per annum income households
5. Based on DA Dev2010/100, Lodged 01/12/2010
Affordable for $60,000 per annum income households
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Affordable for $80,000 per annum income households
Affordable for $95,000 per annum income households
C.2 Former Renter Affordability Prices
Anticipated House and Land Prices - Renter Affordability
CALOUNDRA SOUTH UDA
Cumulative
Cumulative
Large House and
Affordability Rate Affordability Rate
Land Price
(Modest Housing) (Large Housing)
Nominal Lot Range
Nominal
Land Size
No. of
5
Lots
No. of Lots
(%)
Modest House
and Land Price
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
28
4%
$277,956
$358,166
4%
4%
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
37
6%
$280,904
$343,806
10%
10%
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
119
19%
$338,263
$397,780
29%
29%
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
106
16%
$362,527
$414,749
45%
45%
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
212
33%
$385,247
$452,395
78%
78%
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
28
4%
$413,806
$485,496
82%
82%
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
71
11%
$474,687
$555,404
93%
93%
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
42
7%
$485,080
$565,080
100%
100%
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
0
0%
$510,720
$590,720
100%
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
0
0%
$539,180
$629,180
100%
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$562,000
$682,000
100%
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Ivadale Lakes, Creekwood, Bellflower and Brightwater for 450 sqm lots equating to $240,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Affordable for $40,000 per annum income households
5. Based on DA Dev2010/100, Lodged 01/12/2010
Affordable for $60,000 per annum income households
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
Affordable for $80,000 per annum income households
Affordable for $95,000 per annum income households
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
APPENDICES
33
C.3
Former Anticipated Land and House Prices
Anticipated Land and House Prices
SUNSHINE COAST UDA
Nominal Lot Range
No. of Lots
Nominal
No. of Lots
Land Size
(%)
Land Sale
Price1
Median
House
Contract
Price3
Anticipated
Build Cost
(per sqm)
Median
House
Size2
Modest
House
Size4
Large
House
Size4
Modest
House
Price
Large
House
Price
Median
Modest
Large
House
House and House and
Land Price Land Price Land Price
150 sqm to 199 sqm
175
28
4%
$135,360
$185,375
1,500
104
80
125
$120,000
$187,500
$320,735
$255,360
$322,860
250 sqm to 299 sqm
250
37
6%
$155,100
$179,900
1,258
143
100
150
$125,804
$188,706
$335,000
$280,904
$343,806
300 sqm to 349 sqm
320
119
19%
$191,760
$201,442
1,145
176
128
180
$146,503
$206,020
$393,202
$338,263
$397,780
350 sqm to 399 sqm
375
106
16%
$205,860
$206,800
1,044
198
150
200
$156,667
$208,889
$412,660
$362,527
$414,749
400 sqm to 449 sqm
400
212
33%
$219,960
$208,675
1,033
202
160
225
$165,287
$232,435
$428,635
$385,247
$452,395
450 sqm to 499 sqm
450
28
4%
$239,700
$237,603
1,024
232
170
240
$174,106
$245,796
$477,303
$413,806
$485,496
500 sqm to 549 sqm
500
71
11%
$259,440
$240,000
1,076
223
200
275
$215,247
$295,964
$499,440
$474,687
$555,404
550 sqm to 599 sqm
550
42
7%
$265,080
$252,000
1,000
252
220
300
$220,000
$300,000
$517,080
$485,080
$565,080
600 sqm to 649 sqm
600
0
0%
$270,720
$270,000
1,000
270
240
320
$240,000
$320,000
$540,720
$510,720
$590,720
650 sqm to 699 sqm
650
0
0%
$279,180
$305,000
1,000
305
260
350
$260,000
$350,000
$584,180
$539,180
$629,180
700 sqm to 749 sqm
700
0
0%
$282,000
$340,000
1,000
340
280
400
$280,000
$400,000
$622,000
$562,000
$682,000
1. Based on vacant land sale prices from Ivadale Lakes, Creekwood, Bellflower and Brightwater for 450 sqm lots equating to $240,000 and ULDA Price Relativity Table
2. House Size based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
3. Median House Price based on a sample of recent house transactions by the ULDA
4. Provided by the ULDA
Source : RPData and ULDA; Prepared by Urbis
34
APPENDICES
URBIS
Rep-02-110411-ULDA UDAs House Price Analysis
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