REV 00 Chapter 4 VIOLATING ASSUMPTION IN REGRESSION QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 1 REV 00 Nature of Heteroscedasticity One of the assumptions in CLRM is that the errors i must be homoscedastic (equal/constant variance). var( i ) = E( i2 ) = 2 = constant i =1, 2, …, n If the errors do not have constant variance, our regression model is said to have heteroscedasticity problem: 2 var( i ) = E( i ) = constant i =1, 2, …, n 2 i QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 2 REV 00 The notion i2 implies that the variance is different for different observation in (i). Heteroscedasticity is associated with cross sectional data. In cross sectional data, the units may be of different size. QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 3 REV 00 Homoscedasticity Case f(Yi) . x11=80 x12=90 . . Var(ui) = E(ui2)= 2 x13=100 QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC income x1i 4 REV 00 Heteroscedasticity Case f(Yi) . . x11 x12 . Var(ui) = E(ui2)= i2 x13 income QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC x1 5 REV 00 Consequences of Heteroscedasticity If heteroscedasticity is present in our regression model, a) The OLS estimators are still unbiased. b) The estimator’s variances can be larger or smaller then the true variance (biased). c) The OLS estimators are inefficient (no longer has the minimum variance). d) Tests of significance are invalid and the OLS estimators are not BLUE. QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 6 REV 00 Detecting Heteroscedasticity a) Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test Step 1: Estimate Y X ... X u and obtain the residuals uˆ , uˆ , uˆ , …., û . Step 2: Obtain , ~ 2 uˆ i2 n that is the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator of 2. i 1 2 1 2 2i k 3 QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC ki i n 7 REV 00 Step 3: Construct variables pi defined as; 2 2 ~ pi = uˆi which is simply each residual squared divided by ~ 2 . QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 8 REV 00 Step 4: Regress pi thus constructed on the Z's as: pi = 1 + 2 Z 2i + … + m Zmi + vi where vi is the residual term of this regression. Step 5: Obtain the Regression Sum of Squares (RSS) from step 4 and define = 1/2 RSS QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 9 REV 00 Assuming ui are normally distributed, one can show that if there is homoscedasticity and if the sample size n increases indefinitely, then ~ 2 m 1 that is, follows the chi-square distribution with (m-1) degree of freedom. QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 10 REV 00 Therefore, if in an application the computed (= 2) exceeds the critical 2 value at the chosen level of significance, one can reject the null hypothesis of homoscedasticity, otherwise one does not reject it. H0: No heteroscedasticity [E( i ) = = constant] 2 2 H1: Heteroscedasticity [E( i ) = i constant] 2 QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 2 11 REV 00 b) White General Heteroscedasticity Step 1: Given the data, estimate Y X X u i 1 2 2i 3 3i i and obtain the residuals. QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 12 REV 00 Step 2: Run the following auxiliary regression: uˆ = X X X X 2 i 2 1 2 2i 3 3i 4 2i 5 2 3i X X v 6 2i 3i i QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 13 REV 00 Step 3: Under the null hypothesis that there is no heteroscedasticity, it can be shown that sample size (n) times the r2 obtained from the auxiliary regression asymptotically follows the chi-square distribution with df equal to the number of regressors (excluding the constant term) in the auxiliary regression. QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 14 REV 00 That is, n.R2~ 2df where df is as defined previously. In the threevariable regression model, df = 5. QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 15 REV 00 Step 4: If the 2 calculated > than the critical chisquare value, there is heteroscedasticity (reject H0). If the 2 calculated < than the critical chisquare value, there is no heteroscedasticity (accept H0), which is to say that in the auxiliary regression (2), 2= 3= 4 = 5 = 6 = 0. QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 16 REV 00 (if all the partial slope coefficients in this regression are simultaneously equal to zero, then the error variance is the homoscedastic constant equal to 1. H0: No heteroscedasticity [E( i) = = constant] H1: Heteroscedasticity [E( i2) = i2 constant] 2 QMT 3033 ECONOMETRIC 2 17
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