ECONOMIC
MONITOR
May 2014
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SUMMARY

Positive economic indicators reflect an increasingly bright outlook for the borough
economy. Inflation fell to 1.6% in March, a four-year low, meaning that the Consumer
Prices Index rate remains below the 2% target set by the Bank of England. Markit’s
Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for period covering April 2014 measured levels
of business activity in manufacturing (57.3), construction (60.8), and services (58.7)
showing solid signs of growth, each remaining well above the 50.0 no-change mark.
A figure below 50.0 would highlight a decline within the sector.

Hive membership to date include 192 borough based businesses, with 20% of all
businesses registered within manufacturing & automotive. The creative industries
represent 14% with service based businesses representing 13% of total membership.

Latest data shows that health remains the largest sector within the Borough. 20% of
all jobs primarily within the public sector had seen growth between 2009 and 2012.
Manufacturing remains the key private sector representing 17% of all jobs within
Blackburn with Darwen, with specialist niche subsectors which are innovating,
exporting and churning higher value jobs, replacing traditional roles in the local area.
Other growth sectors since 2008 include education, construction and motor trades.
Business and professional services has seen a 13% increase between 2008 and
2012.

The number of enterprises and business units has increased within the borough
between 2012 and 2013 which suggests conditions for growth continue to improve.
The borough business age is younger, with 31% of businesses established within the
last 3 years compared to 26% in Lancashire.

The borough tends to have a larger share of mid-sized to large businesses,
predominantly within manufacturing which support a greater number of jobs in the
area – almost 1 in every 5 jobs. The borough also has a higher proportion of
businesses (12%) which exceed £1million turnover compared to Lancashire and UK
as a whole (9%).

The council’s economic development company, Regenerate Pennine Lancashire has
helped create 249 jobs over 2013/14 using £1.3m of grant investment. The council /
Government can help support businesses through land and property enquiries,
planning, skills and recruitment.

The council latest business survey found that 79% of firms had employed additional
staff during 2013; 72% of firms expect employment levels to grow over the next 3-5
years, whilst only 3% forecast levels to decline; However, 41% of firms regularly
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experience difficulties when recruiting staff, whilst 31% of surveyed firms were
holding unfilled vacancies.

Analysis on salaries showed that workplace based earnings (£390pw) is higher than
resident based earning (£350pw), indicating higher value employment may be
serviced by non-residents. Over 2013, income from employment was largely static
but strongly rising levels of workplace activity bode well for future stronger pay
trends. A long-awaited return to rising real wages is likely to boost consumer
spending as we move through 2014, adding another piece to the jigsaw of the UK’s
economic recovery.

Positive signs continue within Jobs Seekers Allowance at the Blackburn with Darwen
level. In March 2014, the proportion claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) was
3.5%. This suggests that the trend of monthly falls in claimant numbers has returned,
following slight increases in January and February as a result of temporary seasonal
jobs coming to an end. The 3.5% working age claimants in borough remains above
the national JSA claimant average of 2.9%.

Latest 2013 NVQ level 4 attainment has had a 2.1% increase to 25.3% when
compared to previous year. GCSE attainment has also been improving but continues
to perform below the Lancashire average. 42% of the borough’s surveyed firms
currently offer apprenticeships, but cite there is a ‘lack of suitable candidates’ and ‘a
lack of in house capacity to support an apprentice’ as the most common barriers to
taking on an apprentice or offering additional placements.It is important that local
skills level continue to increase to reflect local economic needs to help sustain steady
economic growth.

The latest Land Registry data shows that the average house in Blackburn with
Darwen cost £71,846 in April 2014. Whilst below the England & Wales average,
house prices in Blackburn with Darwen have now increased year-on-year for the last
seven months. Land Registry house sales data over 2013 have shown sales to have
been in excess of 100 in each month. This increase is in part likely to be as a result
of improved confidence in the housing market, while initiatives such as Help to Buy
have had a significant impact on the new build market. The rental market continues
to play an important role in meeting housing demand in Blackburn with Darwen and
rental levels remain reasonably steady.

Whilst businesses need to continue to be risk averse understanding key
macroeconomic factors such as interest rate increase, currency fluctuations, and
inflationary led pressures such as wage increases and rising energy costs which
could affect local businesses, the above summary suggests that there is a lot to be
confident about for new and existing businesses in the borough
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HIVE
Hive is the borough’s business leaders’ network which works together to raise the profile and
prosperity of the area. The Hive network takes a shared responsibility to create a world-class
business area, which creates wealth and opportunities for all.
The current membership breakdown and the top 3 sectors is shown below:
Sector
Hive companies
Community & voluntary sector
Construction & Engineering
Creative industries
Education, employment & business support
Finance, legal, HR & property
IT & communication
Leisure
Manufacturing & automotive
Other business or consumer services
Public sector services
Retail, food & drink
Transportation, storage & fulfilment
TOTAL MEMBERS TO DATE
9
8
27
21
25
13
2
39
19
8
14
7
192
Business news….did you know



Blackburn named in the top ten most innovative areas based upon the number of patents
approved per 100,000 residents (Centre for Cities)
Blackburn ranked 11th in the UK for its proportion of high-growth businesses in 2013
(Experian)
Barclays 2013 Entrepreneurs Index found 206 Blackburn firms in 2013 had sales growth
of 10% or more, putting us 11th on the list across the whole of the UK
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SECTORS
Manufacturing
Manufacturing, the
largest private sector
within the BwD economy
continues to benefit from
growth of output and
new orders. Input prices
have remained steady
helped by low interest
rates and falling
inflation. The sector is
buoyant and performing
very well.
Construction
Across the UK, house
building reclaimed its
place as the main
driving force behind the
resurgent construction
sector, but commercial
and civil construction
remains steady. Local
Plan consultation is
currently in place within
the borough to help
identify housing
potential going forward.
Macroeconomic factors such as interest rate increase, currency
fluctuations, sharp wage increases, price of energy and inflation
could risk long term sustained growth within Blackburn with
Darwen.
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Services
Within the service
sector, new business
and employment all
continue to rise. Public
service continues to be
a dominant sector which
helps support over a
£1bn annually into the
local economy.
BUSINESS
Enterprises
Both the number of enterprise and local
units has increased in the borough
between 2012 and 2013. 14% of all
enterprises were within the retail sector
followed by professional and scientific
businesses representing 12% and
manufacturing at 11%. However,
manufacturing sector had the greatest
number of businesses compared to all
other sectors when measured by
companies with more than 10 employees
Manufacturers are big employers which
tend to employ more people and create
more wealth than some of the other
economic sectors. Around 10,500 work in
manufacturing representing 1 in every 5
jobs in the borough, a key sector which
has the potential to export, innovate and
continue to generate new jobs in all
sectors of the economy.
The borough’s business age compared to
Lancashire is younger, with 31% of businesses
established within the last 3 years compared to
26% in Lancashire, and 41% of businesses
aged 10 or older compared to 45% in
Lancashire overall.
Age of Borough Businesses
Blackburn with Darwen has a slightly
higher representation of higher turnover
businesses, with 12% having a turnover of
more than £1 million, compared to 10% in
Pennine Lancashire and 9% in Lancashire
and the UK as a whole.
Business Size by Turnover
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Source: UK Business: Activity, Size, Location (2012)
COUNCIL BUSINESS SUPPORT AND FINANCE
Commercial Space
Two of the three Council owned
commercial venues within the
borough are currently full. These
high occupancy levels suggest that
service based businesses continue
to perform well. It is important that
a ladder of accommodation is
available to support local
companies to expand and grow.
Blackburn’s landmark Cathedral
Quarter development comprises
30,000 sq ft of new grade A office
space. On site now with
completion due Autumn 2015.
Contact Centre
The council operates a dedicated helpline for incoming business enquiries (01254 588180).
In month 1 (March) 222 calls were received, rising to 316 in April 2014.
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Council's Incoming Business
Enquiries by Section
Business
Grants
1%
Supplier
opp's
1%
Land &
Property
0%
Business
Rates
50%
Planning
48%
Regenerate Pennine Lancashire
The Council and its economic development company, Regenerate Pennine Lancashire,
operate grant funding programmes to create new employment and deliver private sector
investment. Programmes include:
 Assistance to Industry (the Council’s discretionary grant scheme)
2013/14 grant paid = £216,812 / jobs created = 124.5
 Accelerating Business Growth (a Regional Growth Fund scheme available across
Lancashire)
Grant allocated to BwD-based projects = £1,074,148 / jobs to be created = 124
 In 2014/15, under the FUSE programme, substantial grants from £5k to £50k are
available through Regenerate Pennine Lancashire for businesses based in or looking
to relocate to Blackburn with Darwen which have been trading under 3 years and are
looking to grow.
Additional Government support for businesses include:
 Wage Incentive: £2,275 to recruit an 18 to 24 year old who has been unemployed
for at least 6 months.
www.gov.uk/jobcentre-plus-help-for-recruiters/other-employment-schemes
http://www.bootstrap.org.uk/youth-contract-wage-incentive/ Tel: 01254 867154
 The National Apprenticeship Service provides support for employers. There’s
£1,500 to support the recruitment of a new 16 to 24 year old apprentice; it’s for
employers with up to 1,000 staff who have not recruited an apprentice within the last
twelve months.
www.apprenticeships.org.uk/Employers/Steps-to-make-it-happen/Incentive.aspx
Tel: 08000 150 600
EMPLOYMENT
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In a recent survey carried out in December 2013
of BwD businesses:
 79% of firms had employed additional
staff during 2013;
 72% of firms expect employment levels to
grow over the next 3-5 years, whilst only
3% forecast levels to decline;
 However, 41% of firms regularly
experience difficulties when recruiting
staff, whilst 31% of surveyed firms were
holding unfilled vacancies.
The borough has 61,500 jobs compared to
60,000 residents of working age. This means the
borough is a net importer of people who come
and work in Blackburn with Darwen.
Analysis on salaries also shows that workplace
based earnings (£390pw) is higher than resident
based earning (£350pw), indicating higher value
employment are being serviced by non-residents.
Unemployment rate has seen a modest decrease
to the 12 months ending December 2013
currently at 8.1%. This is now at the same level
as the regional but slightly higher than the
national average. In March 2014, the proportion
claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) is 3.5%
(3,305) which is above the national average of
2.8%, although this trend is declining as more
people move into employment following seasonal
variations.
In December 2013, self-employment had
returned to levels seen in December 2012 7,300
(8.4%) following a period of decline, but remains
below the regional and national average.
SKILLS
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Self Employment
Dec-12
8.4
7.9
8.4
Sep-13
8.3 8.5
8.9
Dec-13
9.6 9.5 9.7
Blackburn
North West Great Britain
with Darwen
It is important that local skills levels match the
needs of the local economy.
In 2013, professional occupations rose by 3.7%
representing 18% of the total working age
population of the borough. These roles support
both the manufacturing and service sectors.
Roles within care and leisure had fallen by
1.7% compared to 2012, currently representing
8.9% of the total workforce. Elementary roles
have also fallen by 1.6%, currently at 13.6%
These changes across occupational groups
suggest there are demands on higher value
employment.
Qualifications (January 2013-Dec 2013)
Qualification levels whilst improving continue to remain below the regional and national
average.
Blackburn with
Cumulative %
Cumulative
Cumulative %
Darwen (no. of
of Blackburn
% of North
of Great
residents aged
with Darwen
West
Britain
16-64)
residents
residents
residents
(aged 16-64)
(aged 16-64) (aged 16-64)
NVQ4 and above
21,900
25.3
31.0
35.2
NVQ3 and above
39,300
45.3
51.9
55.8
NVQ2 and above
56,200
64.8
70.2
72.5
NVQ1 and above
68,400
78.9
83.0
84.4
Other qualifications
6,000
7.0
6.0
6.3
No qualifications
12,300
14.1
11.0
9.3
Source Annual Population Survey
GCSE Attainment
65.0 % of pupils achieving 5+A-C including
English and Mathematics GCSE
61.2
60.0
59.5
55.0
50.0
Blackburn with Darwen is ranked 13th/23
Local Education Authorities (LEAs) in the
North West in terms of attainment levels
(59.5%). In comparison, BwD is almost
2% below the Lancashire LEA of 61.2%.
45.9
Blackburn with
Darwen
45.0
40.0
38.6
The graph shows the proportion of pupils
achieving five GCSEs A*-C including
English and Mathematics GCSE.
Lancashire
35.0
In 2012-13, 59.5% of pupils in Blackburn
with Darwen, attained 5 A*-C including
English and Mathematics at GCSE. This
was 2.5% higher than that recorded in
the previous year and 21% higher than
that recorded in 2006.
30.0
Apprenticeships
The borough Business survey from December 2013 found that:
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

42% of the borough’s surveyed firms currently offer apprenticeships, with ‘a lack of
suitable candidates’ and ‘a lack of in house capacity to support an apprentice’ cited
as the most common barriers to taking on an apprentice or offering additional
placements.
Alongside this, 39% of firms surveyed identified skills gaps in the current workforce.
Government official data shows that BwD’s overall apprenticeship starts in 2012/13 saw a
slight increase in comparison to the previous years, whereas both regional and national
totals have decreased.
Whilst BwD has a strong success rate in terms of the number of 16-18 year olds who
complete their apprenticeship, outperforming both the region and national averages at all
levels, employers are reminded that the ‘Raising of the Participation Age’ to 18 does not
necessitate staying on at a school’s sixth form or going to college – an apprenticeship counts
as staying on in learning too.
HOUSING MARKET
In BwD, the average house price recorded in April 2014 was £71,846, which had fallen by
4% when compared with previous year. However, prices have started to show an upward
trend coinciding with the increasing sales since November 2013 (£69,370).
The lower average prices reflect the nature of the local housing market which is dominated
with smaller lower value terraced properties, whilst the lower proportion of family homes
attract a higher premium, often more than double the average borough house price. The
supply of housing, particularly focusing on family homes to meet the demands of a growing
workforce and population is a fundamental requirement if the supply side of the economy is
to function effectively.
Since the introduction of the Government’s Help to Buy scheme, 44 households had
benefitted to the month ending April 2014.
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Produced by
PLACE Strategy Unit
01254 585771
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