March 2017 Modeling Nyrstar Important notice This presentation has been prepared by the management of Nyrstar NV (the "Company"). It does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company or any member of its group nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract to purchase or subscribe for any securities of the Company or any member of its group, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information included in this presentation has been provided to you solely for your information and background and is subject to updating, completion, revision and amendment and such information may change materially. Unless required by applicable law or regulation, no person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this presentation and any opinions expressed in relation thereto are subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of the information contained herein. Neither the Company nor any other person accepts any liability for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from this presentation or its contents. This presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect the Company's intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, performance, prospects, growth, strategies and the industry in which the Company operates. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions and other factors that could cause the Company's actual results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, performance, prospects, growth or opportunities, as well as those of the markets it serves or intends to serve, to differ materially from those expressed in, or suggested by, these forwardlooking statements. The Company cautions you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that its actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if the Company's results of operations, financial condition, liquidity and growth and the development of the industry in which the Company operates are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods. The Company and each of its directors, officers and employees expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to review, update or release any update of or revisions to any forward-looking statements in this presentation or any change in the Company's expectations or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which these forward-looking statements are based, except as required by applicable law or regulation. This document and any materials distributed in connection with this document are not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions. The Company’s shares have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration under the Securities Act or exemption from the registration requirement thereof. 2 Table of Contents I. Introduction II. Metals Processing III. Mining IV. Other and Eliminations V. Group VI. Port Pirie Redevelopment uplift modelling 3 Introduction Nyrstar today Global multi-metals business, with a market leading position in zinc and lead, and growing positions in other base and precious metals Geographically diverse smelters operating in OECD countries1 HOYANGER Fumer Norway BALEN / OVERPELT 2016 Revenue €2.8bn LANGLOIS Smelter & Oxide Washing Plant Belgium BUDEL Operating Mine Canada Smelter The Netherlands 2016 Underlying EBITDA €193m AUBY CLARKSVILLE Smelter France Mines and Smelter Complex Tennessee, USA Operating Smelters c. 4,300 employees PORT PIRIE Operating Mines 2016 production 1,015kt zinc metal 96kt zinc in conc. HOBART Multi-metals Processing Facility Australia Smelter Australia Non-operating Assets Second largest zinc metal producer globally… …with consistent long term production Stable zinc processing guidance (1.0 – 1.1 mt) Metal (kt) 2016 provisional zinc smelter production2 (kt Zn) 1,247 1,015 610 Korea Zinc Market 8.6% 2 Share 195 158 179 178 185 471 1,125 1,084 1,088 1,097 1,115 1,015 Boliden 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1,003 Nyrstar Glencore 7.0% 6.9% Hindustan Zinc 4.2% 187 609 Votorantim 4.2% 3.3% Zinc Lead 1 Excludes corporate offices and mining assets where sale has been agreed or completed 2 Wood Mackenzie figures for smelters other than Nyrstar Source: Wood Mackenzie; Nyrstar company information 4 Introduction Segmental reporting Nyrstar’s two operating segments - Metals Processing and Mining - reflect the approach of the Company towards evaluating the financial performance and allocating resources to the Group’s operations Reported Segments Metals Processing Mining Other & Eliminations 6 smelters Auby, France Balen, Belgium Budel, The Netherlands Clarksville, USA Hobart, Australia Port Pirie, Australia 1 fumer Hoyanger, Norway 5 mines East Tennessee, USA Middle Tennessee, USA Langlois, Canada Myra Falls, Canada Campo Morado, Mexico Corporate activities & Eliminations* Formal sale process underway * Eliminations of the intra-group transactions including any unrealised profits resulting from intercompany transactions 5 Introduction Important Information This presentation provides an overview of our metals processing and mining business Data used in these calculations is based on industry benchmarks and historic data all of which is publicly available Worked examples do not necessarily reflect the terms of any individual contract that Nyrstar has previously entered into, currently trades on or is likely to enter into in the future Historical operational and financial data can be found on the Nyrstar website -> Investors & Media / Interactive Analyst Centre http://www.nyrstar.com/investors/en/Pages/Interactive%20Analyst%20Centre.aspx 6 II. Metals Processing 7 Metals Processing Zinc smelting process Main / By-products Zinc Concentrate Roasting Oxides & Other Secondary Materials Sulphuric Acid Direct Leach Oxide Calcine Zinc Dust Impure Solution Leach Product Germanium conc. Gypsum Leaching Copper Sulphate Co/Ni Residue Cadmium Purification Purified Solution Electrolysis Spent Electrolyte (Recycled) Cathode Casting Dross and Zinc Dust (Recycled) Alloy Material Zinc / Alloy Market Metal Indium metal Input Intermediate Primary Output 8 Metals Processing Multi-metal smelting process at Port Pirie Sinter* Lead Concentrate Secondary Materials Main / By-products Sulphuric Acid Sinter* Blast Furnace Granulated Slag Bullion Slag Fumer Copper Processing Zinc Fume Copper Desilvering High Grade Liquation Precious Metal Refining Lead Refining Alloy Material Dore Lead / Alloy Market Metal * With Port Pirie Redevelopment , the Sinter plant will be replaced by a TSL Furnace and the output will change from sinter to combination of slag, lead bullion and copper matte (see Port Pirie Redevelopment flowsheet in appendix for further details) Input Intermediate Primary Output 9 Metals Processing Zinc and lead concentrate - typical pricing terms Zinc Concentrate Zn Metal Paid 85% Zinc Smelters typically pay for 85% of the zinc contained in zinc concentrates (typically 56% Zn) valued at LME price averaged over the Quotation Period (QP)1 Lead Concentrate Pb Metal Paid 95% ‒ Lead Smelters typically pay for 95% of the lead contained in the lead concentrate (typically 60% Pb) valued at LME price averaged over the QP1 ‒ In addition, the lead smelter will pay for Ag, Au, Cu and Zn content in concentrate if it exceeds certain thresholds In addition, the zinc smelter will pay for Ag and other minor metals content in concentrate if it exceeds certain threshold Deductions Deductions Treatment Charges ‒ Treatment Charges ‒ Penalties2 and/or Allowances Penalties2 and/or Allowances 1 The typical quotation period for zinc and lead concentrates purchased by Nyrstar is 3 months after the month of arrival (i.e. 3 MAMA) depend on quality of concentrate e.g. where the material contains impurities above the set thresholds the smelter is compensated 2 Penalties 10 Metals Processing Profit share concept Treatment charge ‒ The metal value contained in zinc concentrates is shared between miners and smelters through payable metal and Treatment Charges (TCs), as zinc smelters only pay for 85% of contained metal, minus a treatment charge ‒ Industry players often refer to the concept of profit sharing, which refers to the proportion of the LME metal price attributed to smelters and miners ● Surplus metal and concentrates ● Concentrate surplus ● LME price falls ● Power shifts to smelters ● Mines cut production ● TCs increase ● Smelters increase production Metal price ● Concentrates draw down ● Metals draw down ● Power shifts to miners ● LME price increases ● TCs fall ● Miners increase production ‒ Smelters’ share of LME price between 1994 – 2016 ‒ Profit sharing between smelters & miners Average 42% USD % 100 ‒ Maximum 49% (1996; 1998) 90 80 ‒ Minimum 31% (2007) 70 60 3,500 33% 3,000 Smelter: Average 42% 2,095 2,000 50 40 1,500 67% 30 20 Source : Wood Mackenzie / Nyrstar 1,000 500 Mine: Average 58% 10 0 Zinc price Smelter Share, % Mine share, % 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 0 1995 Zinc smelters capture approximately 40% of price through Treatment Charges and Free Metal 2,500 11 Metals Processing Elements of Metals Processing gross profit ‒ The table below maps revenue and COGS to the “elements” of gross profit The five main elements of gross profit are: Revenue and Costs Gross Profit Metal Revenue Free Metal 2 Premium By Products 1. Zinc and lead Treatment Charges (TCs) comprising the base TC and any price participation through escalators and de-escalators, paid to the smelters by miners in the form of concessions 2. The value of free zinc and lead metal (i.e., refined zinc and lead produced by the smelter over and above the metal content the smelter has paid for in concentrates purchased from the miner) 3. Metal premiums (i.e., sales of refined metal made by the smelter at prices above the LME zinc and lead reference prices) 4. Sale of by-products can provide valuable earnings contributions 5. Metals Processing Other Gross Profit (or loss), which consists of realization expenses, location allowances, penalties and the costs and revenues associated with producing alloys Premium 3 By Products 4 (Realisation Expenses) Net Revenue (Payable Metal) Treatment Charge (Other) Treatment Charge 1 (Other) 5 (Net COGS) Gross Profit Gross Profit 12 Metals Processing 1. Treatment charges For zinc and lead concentrates, treatment charges are payable per tonne of concentrate (not per tonne of market metal) Zinc treatment charges generally include price participation, and an annual benchmark is typically negotiated between major producers with the following components: Base TC TC prior to application of escalator/de-escalator Basis Price LME Zinc price at which Base TC is set (typically LME price at negotiation) Escalator % increase to Base TC for each USD LME price increase above Basis Price De-escalator % decrease to Base TC for each USD LME price decrease below Basis Price In some years there may be a more complex structure with non participation windows, or multiple escalators/deescalators Most concentrate contracts are for an annual delivered quantity (ADQ), but not all concentrate may be received in that contract period. Therefore TC terms can carry over into the following year under prior period TC terms and opening inventory will also apply these terms A spot treatment charge market exists; however, this is relatively illiquid (constituting approximately 10% of all concentrates) Nyrstar generally purchases the bulk of its concentrates on benchmark terms and/or benchmark terms with discounts applied Lead Treatment Charges can be either flat or have escalators / de-escalators like zinc Note: Lead smelters do not receive a Zinc Treatment Charge for zinc contained in lead concentrates Benchmark Zinc and Lead TC terms can be found in Metals Bulletin, Wood Mackenzie, CRU and other industry publications 13 Metals Processing Nyrstar’s zinc concentrate feed mix is predominantly based on benchmark terms with price participation Typical mix of zinc treatment charge terms Treatment charge terms Approx. % Price participation (Escalator/De-escalator) Benchmark frame contracts with mining companies 30-40% Full Benchmark with discount and frame contracts* 50-60% Predominantly Spot 5-10% Generally not Nyrstar predominantly purchases concentrate on annually agreed benchmark terms or on frame contracts that apply discounts to the benchmark treatment charge terms. A small portion of Nyrstar’s zinc concentrate purchases are on spot treatment charge terms with no price participation through a treatment charge escalator/de-escalator During the past several years, the realised treatment charge achieved by Nyrstar’s Metal Processing segment has been on average USD 10 to 30 per dry metric tonne less than what would have been achieved if the feedmix was completely on annual benchmark terms Discounts agreed against the annual zinc benchmark terms is a function of the supply and demand dynamics for individual concentrates 14 * Primarily with traders as well as mining companies on either a long or short term basis Metals Processing 1. Treatment charges – example Benchmark zinc treatment charge at average zinc price Zinc price Zinc concentrates benchmark treatment charge for 2016 was settled as: USD/t Base TC USD 203 per dmt (dry metric tonne) at basis zinc price of USD 2,000/t 250 Escalators of 9% from zinc price of USD 2,000 to 2,500 per ton 150 8% from USD 2,500 to 3,000 per ton; 5% from 3,000 to 3,750 and zero above 3,750 100 200 Benchmark TC at av zinc price 2,164 2,200 2,095 1,946 1,928 1,909 2,000 1,800 190 243 237 209 1,600 212 1,400 50 De-escalator of 3% from zinc price of 2,000 to 1,500 and zero below USD 1,500 1,200 0 1,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Actual 2016 LME price (USD/t) A 1,400 1,500 1,700 2,000 2,095 2,200 Base TC (USD/t) B 203 203 203 203 203 203 Basis price (USD/t) C 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Escalator E - - - 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% De-escalator F - -3.00% -3.00% - - - 185 188 194 203 212 221 13.2% 12.5% 11.4% 10.2% 10.1% 10.1% Realised TC (USD/t) Realised TC as % of zinc price If LME price < Basis price B + (A – C) * F If LME price > Basis priceB + (A – C) * E Lead benchmark TC for 2016 were approximately USD 178/t flat (i.e. no escalator or de-escalator). In recent years lead TCs have been agreed at a flat rate with no adjustment for prevailing lead price movements. 15 Metals Processing 2. Free metal contribution Zinc smelters The volume of zinc free metal produced is determined by concentrate Zn grade, amount of zinc paid for and amount of zinc recovered Working from input to output (assuming 56% Zn grade, 85% Zn metal paid and 96.5% recovery rate): ‒ 1,000 dmt amount of zinc concentrate we buy ‒ 1,000 t x 54% = 540 t amount of contained zinc metal ‒ 540 t x 85% = 459 t amount we pay for ‒ 540 t x 96.5% = 521 t amount we recover i.e. production volume ‒ 521 t – 459 t = 62 t therefore amount of free metal The contribution to gross profit from zinc free metal is determined by the recovery rate, the LME zinc price and exchange rates Recovery Payable LME Free Metal(EUR) Production Recovery ExchangeRate EUR:USD Rate The free metal contribution has to be grossed up by the recovery rate as zinc lost in the production process has a free metal component Using the example above production 521t x (96.5% recovery - 85% payable) / recovery 96.5% = 62 t free metal 16 Metals Processing 2. Free metal contribution - example Zinc smelters Nyrstar’s average zinc recovery in 2016 was approximately 96.5% (zinc smelters only) Example (for zinc smelters only, based on FY 2016 figures): ‒ 1,015,000 t zinc production ‒ Recovery rate: 96.5% ‒ Avg Zinc LME price FY 2015: USD 2,095 /t ‒ Avg Exchange Rate EUR:USD: 1.107 Free Metal (EUR) 1,105,000 96.5% 85% USD 2,095 EUR 260m 96.5% 1.107 Port Pirie Multi-metal smelter The zinc plant at Port Pirie was the highest cost zinc plant in Nyrstar’s smelter portfolio and ceased operations in July 2014. Port Pirie produces zinc oxide which is further processed into zinc market metal at other smelter assets (typically Hobart) Port Pirie recovers approximately 90% of zinc into zinc oxide and only pays for approximately 10% of zinc in concentrates. Therefore it is recommended that the zinc free metal contribution from Pirie’s zinc oxide is to be calculated separately Lead Free Metal is calculated using the same approach but is not as significant as for zinc due to higher payable component. Payable lead 95%, lead recovery at Port Pirie 99% 17 Metals Processing 3. Premiums Zinc products Premiums relate to the type of metal or alloy produced as well as the regional supply-demand balance Galvanising alloys Nyrstar produces zinc commodity grade products such as Special High Grade (SHG) and galvanising alloys e.g. Continuous Galvanising Grade (CGG) Nyrstar also produces significant volumes of zinc specialty alloys (such as ZAMAK die-casting alloys in Europe and EZDA in Asia) which have historically had higher premiums Product premium ZAMAK #5 - 8.3 kg slabs EZDA 3 SLAB – Die cast alloy SHG SHG (LME grade) – 25 kg slabs Under its commodity grade off-take agreements with Glencore and Trafigura, Nyrstar receives a metal premium for zinc and lead Value add Zinc premium per location Under the commercial agreements with Trafigura for sale of certain available quantities of commodity grade zinc and lead metal, Nyrstar receives annually agreed premiums A combination of annually negotiated contracts and shorter term contracts with Nyrstar’s customers determine premiums for specialty alloys Spot premiums can be found in CRU Monitor, Metal Bulletin and Fast Markets and are indicative of the trend in premiums USD/t 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2002 2004 Asia 2006 2008 Europe 2010 2012 2014 2016 North America Source: CRU, Wood Mackenzie / Nyrstar 18 Metals Processing 4. By-products - acid Sulphuric acid is the main by-product for zinc smelters It is produced during the roasting stage for zinc smelters, and during the sinter stage for lead smelters Sulphuric acid is predominantly used by the chemicals, mining and fertiliser industries Indicative movements in acid prices by region can be found in industry reports (such as the Argus FMB report and Fertercon report) and sulphur price indexes There are several factors which impact acid earnings: Regional variation in acid quality, usage and markets Mix of domestic sales and exports Regional differences in contract terms: in some regions and with some customers annual contract terms are negotiated, for others shorter terms are used Roasting Leaching Purification Electrolysis Melting & Casting Gas Cleaning Sulphuric Acid Plant Sulphuric Acid Production volumes can be estimated based on historic data: For zinc smelters, for every 1 unit of Zinc Market Metal produced, 1.3 units of acid is produced For lead smelters, for every 1 unit of Lead Market Metal produced, 0.3 units of acid is produced 19 Metals Processing 4. By-products - other ‒ ‒ ‒ Leach Product ‒ This is the saleable product of the leaching process typically containing silver and lead ‒ The value of leach product varies depending on contract conditions and leach product quality Other ‒ This includes products such as indium, cadmium, copper sulphate and other zinc products ‒ Production and earnings vary year on year due to changes in concentrate mix and pricing conditions Port Pirie Multi-metal smelter ‒ By-products at Port Pirie are anything other than zinc and lead market metal ‒ The Port Pirie multi-metal smelter has the flexibility to efficiently process a wide range of raw materials to produce refined copper and silver and gold dore. Post the Port Pirie Redevelopment, the smelter will be treating a greater volume of by-product rich residue material sourced from the zinc smelting segment ‒ Various factors determine the earnings contribution of the major by-products; silver, copper and gold, including ‒ Market prices, recovery rates ‒ The Ag, Cu and/or Au content contained in the concentrate (assays) ‒ Payable components for Ag, Cu and Au which depends on concentrate assay ‒ Silver Refining Charge (RC) for lead concentrates with high levels of payable silver ‒ Silver Premiums 20 Metals Processing 5. Other Metals Processing gross profit The key components of Other Metals Processing Gross Profit include: Realisation expenses Includes all external selling freight costs incurred in delivering refined zinc, lead and by-products Nyrstar relies on a variety of transport methods for delivery of its products, including ship, road and rail In general, Nyrstar’s transport costs are higher in Europe than in the United States, Asia or Australia Generally the smelter pays for transportation of its finished product to the customer Inbound Freight Location allowances Concentrates contain impurities, such as iron, that cause difficulties in the refining process. In these circumstances there may be a deduction from the price of the concentrate Costs and revenues of alloying materials Smelters that are located close to mines are well-placed to negotiate advantageous commercial terms Penalties Includes all freight and handling costs for inbound concentrates Costs and revenues of alloying materials (aluminium, nickel, copper, tin, etc.) which are required to produce the value-added alloys Hedging Gains and Losses Gains and losses from Nyrstar’s metal at risk hedging programme 21 Metals Processing Gross profit by metal 2015 Metals Processing gross profit by metal1 2016 Metals Processing gross profit by metal1 €843m €1,003m Zinc (€685m, 73%) Zinc (€811m,73%) Lead (€83m, 9%) Lead (€ 81m, 7%) Sulphuric Acid (€45m, 5%) Sulphuric Acid (€56m, 5%) Leach product (€38, 4%) Leach product (€ 59m, 5%) Copper (€20m, 2%) Copper (€ 18m, 2%) Silver (€38m, 4%) Silver (€ 24m, 2%) Zinc 73% Gold (€ 16m, 1%) Other metals (€43m, 4%) Zinc 73% Gold (€12m, 1%) Other metals (€13m, 2%) Weaker year-over-year gross profit (down 16%) at EUR 843 million in 2016 was mainly driven by lower zinc metal production volumes (down 9%) and a 17% decrease in the annual zinc benchmark treatment charge. The total Premium gross profit contributions decreased by 9% compared to 2016, largely driven by lower volumes and relatively flat average realised premia rates. By-product gross profit contributions were positively impacted by higher production volumes of copper and silver, offset by lower production volumes of gold and sulphuric acid compared to 2015. There was no indium production included in Metals Processing By-Products gross profit in 2016 due to the fire at the indium cement plant that occurred in Q4 2015. The indium plant is currently being re-built and is expected to resume production by the end of Q1 2017. 1 Does not include Other Gross Profit which consists of realisation expenses and costs of alloying materials: €(89)m and €(105)m for 2016 and 2015, respectively 22 Metals Processing Metals Processing operating costs Direct Operating Costs consist of People (employee costs) Energy (primarily electricity for zinc smelters, and coke/coal for lead smelters) Other (including Stores and External Services) Nyrstar reports direct operating cost per tonne of zinc and lead market metal production on an asset by asset basis: SmeltingDOC per tonne TotalSmeltingDirect OperatingCosts Total Zinc Market MetalProduction Port PirieLeadMarket MetalProduction MP DOC per tonne 687 2014 484 499 442 2015 2016 656 681 502 501 478 483 443 420 340 421 426 496 People 38% Energy 36% Balen/Overpelt 35% 35% 448 370 361 Other Auby 513 515 Budel Clarksville Hobart Port Pirie 35% 32% 33% 26% 30% Metals Processing Average In 2016 DOC per tonne was €515/t compared to EUR 513/t in 2015 (up 0.5%) 23 Metals Processing Metals Processing underlying EBITDA – high level model Nyrstar uses a model similar to this to validate the output of more detailed models Example is based on 2016 macroeconomic parameters and production volume INPUTS 2016 CALCULATION - FY EBITDA Zinc MM Production (zinc smelter) incl. Zinc MM Production from Port Pirie's fume Lead Production (Port Pirie) Acid Production A B C D 1,015,000 35,000 187,000 1,367,000 Zinc Recovery (zinc smelters) Zinc Recovery (Port Pirie) Lead Recovery (Port Pirie) E F G 96.5% 90% 99% Paid Zinc (zinc smelters) Paid Zinc (Port Pirie) Paid Lead (Port Pirie) H J K 85% 30% 95% Zinc Concentrate Grade Lead Concentrate Grade L M 54% 60% LME Zinc Price (USD/t) LME Lead Price (USD/t) Realised Acid Price (USD/t) N P Q 2,095 1,872 38 R.1 R.2 212 100 Realised TC (Pb) USD/t S 178 Avg Zinc Premium (USD/t) Avg Lead Premium (USD/t) T U 135 55 Benchmark TC at average price(Zn) USD/t Spot TC Zinc TC (€ m) Lead TC (€ m) 1 2 €m 346 50 Free Zinc - ex Pirie (€ m) Free Zinc - Pirie (€ m) Free Lead (€ m) 3 4 5 220 44 13 29 Zinc Premium (€ m) Lead Premium (€ m) 6 7 128 9 14 By-products (€ m) Acid Other 8 9 47 96 15 Other (€m) 10 (89) Gross Profit 865 Direct Operating Costs 11 (619) Non-operating and other 12 (2) Underlying EBITDA 1 EUR :USD Direct Operating Cost per tonne (€/t) R = LME Zinc Price * 11.0% (see page 15) V W 1.11 515 ( ( (A - B) / E / L ) * R ) / V % 42 244 7 * (C*U)/V with R.1 for 93% and R2 for 7% (middle point of 5-10%) 2 ((B/G/M)*S)/V 8 (D*Q)/V 3 (A -B)*( ( E - H ) / E ) *N / V 9 H1 2016 actual 4 B*((F-J)/F)*N/V 10 H1 2016 actual 5 6 C*((G-K)/G)*P/V ((A+B)*T)/V 11 12 (A +C)*W 2016 actual * Actual Metals Processing 2016 EBITDA was €222m. The difference of €22m is due to application of average exchange rate and commodity prices and the impact of benchmark TC roll over between years. 24 III. Mining 25 Mining Zinc Mining and Milling Process Simplified illustration of process at Nyrstar Tennessee Mines Drill & Blast Primary Crushing MINE Secondary Crushing Heavy Media Separator Rod/Ball Mill Flotation Thickener/ Filter Agricultural Lime Zinc Concentrate Tailings MILL Crushed Rock Aggregate PRODUCTS 26 Mining Reserves and resources Nyrstar has notionally adopted the following standards for all public reporting of Mineral Resources, Ore Reserves and Exploration Results: Australasian Code for Reporting Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves (the JORC Code), and Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum (CIM or National Instrument 43- 101, “NI 43-101”) Definition Standards on Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves and the CIM Estimation of Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves Best Practice Guidelines. Nyrstar typically publish updated Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves statements for all mine operations at the time of its first Interim Management Statement (based on either JORC or NI 43-101). 27 Mining Elements of mining gross profit ‒ Certain terminology used below reflects the fact that Nyrstar has historically been a Metals Processing company and as such has applied certain terminology traditionally used in the Metals Processing industry to its Mining segment ‒ The table below maps revenue and COGS to the “elements” of gross profit Revenue and Costs Metal Revenue By Products Gross Profit Payable Metal 1 By Products 2 Gross Revenue (Treatment Charge) (Treatment Charge) 3 (Realisation Expenses) (Other) (Other) 4 Net Revenue (Net COGS) Gross Profit The four main elements of gross profit are: 1.The value of ‘‘payable’’ primary metal (i.e. the payable amount of the primary metal produced by the miner at the market defined price) 2.Sale of By-products can provide valuable earnings contributions (net of treatment or refining charges) 3.Primary concentrate Treatment Charge (TC) compromising the base TC and any price participation through escalators and deescalators, which the mine pays to a smelter through concessions, thereby reducing the mine’s revenue 4.Mining Other Gross Profit, typically a deduction, including realization expenses, penalties paid by the miner to the smelter, location advantage concessions or allowances Gross Profit 28 Mining Mining gross profit by metal 2015 Mining gross profit by metal 2016 Mining gross profit by metal €137m €220m1 Zinc (€190m, 86%) Zinc (€120m, 88%) Copper (€6m, 3%) Copper (€7m, 5%) Silver (€9m, 4%) Silver (€5m, 4%) Gold (€3m, 1%) Gold (€1m, 1%) Other (€12m, 6%) Other (€3m, 2%) Zinc 86% Zinc 88% Mining gross profit at €137m in 2016 down 38% on 2015 following suspension of operations at Middle Tennessee Mines Zinc in concentrate production (kt) -40% 161 Langlois 40 Myra Falls 9 East Tennessee 64 Middle Tennessee 47 96 34 0 62 0 2015 1 2016 Mining Gross Profit for 2016 and 2015 excludes discontinued operations at El Toqui, El Mochito, Contonga and Coricancha 29 Mining Mining operating costs Direct Operating Costs consist of people (employee costs), energy and other Nyrstar reports mining DOC per tonne of ore milled on an asset by asset basis and denominated in U.S. dollars: Mining DOC per tonne Total Mining Direct Operating Costs Total Production of ore milled Mining direct operating costs per tonne of ore milled (USD/t) 2014 2015 163 2016 71 People 40% 110 87 83 73 73 70 48 88 49 93 Energy 76 14% 47% 46% 63 12% 11% 43 42 38 Other 46% 41% 43% n/a n/a Campo Morado n/a n/a Contonga El Mochito n/a El Toqui n/a n/a Langlois Myra Falls East Tennessee Mines Mining Average In 2016 DOC per tonne of ore milled was USD 49/tonne compared to USD 48/tonne in 2015 on restated basis 30 Mining Mining underlying EBITDA – high level model Example is based on H1 2016 macroeconomic parameters and production volume INPUTS 2016 Ore milled production (t) CALCULATION A 2,253,000 1 €USD (37) m€ (34) Payable metal contribution Zinc 2 171 154 By-Products Lead Copper Silver Gold Lead concentrate TC Copper concentrate TC RC Total by-products 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ∑ 0 8 9 2 0 (1) (2) 16 0 7 8 2 0 (1) (2) 14 Frieght 10 (10) (9) Gross Profit ∑ 139 126 Direct operating costs 11 (148) (134) Non-operating and other 12 11 10 Underlying EBITDA ∑ 2 2 TCs Zinc concentrate Contained production Zinc (t) Lead (t) Copper (t) Silver (oz) Gold (oz) B C D E F 96,000 0 2,100 554,000 1,800 Concentrate grade Zinc concenrate Lead concentrate Copper concentrate G H I 55% 58% 19% Average payable metal Zinc Lead Copper Silver Gold J K L M N 85% 95% 80% 95% 95% Metal prices Zinc (US$/t) Lead (US$/t) Copper (US$/t) Silver (US$/oz) Gold (US$/oz) O P Q R S 2,095 1,872 4,863 17.14 1,250 Zinc concenrate (% of price) Lead concentrate (% of price) Copper concentrate (% of price) T U V 10.1% 9% 2% 1 2 3 ( (B / G) * (T * O ) B*J*O C*K*P 7 8 9 -(C / H) * (P *U) -(D / I) * (Q *V) -W * E Silver RC ($/tOz of Ag) W -4 Frieght cost/t of concentrate X 55 4 5 6 D*L*Q E*M*R F*N*S 10 11 12 -X * (B/G + C/H +D/I) -A * Z H1 2016 actual EUR :USD Y 1.11 DOC per tonne of ore milled ($/t) Z 49 Other * TCs * Actual Mining 2016 EBITDA was EUR 6 million. The difference of EUR 4 million is due to application of average exchange rate and commodity prices and the impact of benchmark TC roll over between years. 31 IV. Other and Eliminations 32 Other and eliminations Other and eliminations segment The key components of the Other & Eliminations segment include: Corporate activities / costs (that are not allocated to the Mining or Metals Processing segments) Eliminations of intra-group transactions, including any unrealized profits resulting from intercompany transactions In 2016 this segment made an underlying EBITDA loss of €35m (€38m in FY 2015). The reduction in this loss over recent years includes corporate costs saving year-over-year Eliminations of intra-group transactions: When concentrate is sold within the Nyrstar group, from the Mining to the Metals Processing segment, the Mining segment immediately recognises the financial benefit However, this financial result is eliminated within the Other & Eliminations segment result until the material has been converted into finished product and sold externally (time to process internally is approximately 2 months for zinc) 33 V. Group 34 Group Group underlying EBITDA: 2016 results Group Underlying EBITDA is an aggregation of separately estimated segments EBITDA: Metals Processing, Mining and Other & Eliminations Segments EBITDA can be estimated based on: forecasting production levels (see regularly published Company production guidance) calculating Metals Processing gross profit per element / Mining gross profit per element taking assumption on development of operating costs per unit and estimating total direct operating costs forecasting an Other & Eliminations result Underlying EBITDA (EURm) Segment Modelled Actual Metals Processing Slide 24 244 222 Mining Slide 31 2 6 Other & Eliminations Slide 33 Group (35) 193 35 Group Reconciling group underlying EBITDA to Net Loss €m 2015 2016 ∆ 267 193 (74) Embedded derivatives 13 (5) (19) Restructuring expense (12) (9) 3 M&A related transaction expense - (5) (5) Underlying adjustments 2 (19) (21) 268 174 (95) Depreciation, depletion and amortisation (196) (179) 17 Impairment loss (net) (442) (133) 310 Result from operating activities (370) (139) 231 2 2 - (112) (119) (6) 1 (5) (6) Net finance expense (111) (123) (12) Loss before income tax (480) (261) 219 215 (16) (230) Loss for the year from continuing operations (265) (277) (12) Loss from discontinued operations, net of taxes (166) (137) 29 Loss for the year (432) (414) 18 Underlying EBITDA Unadjusted EBITDA Finance income Finance expense Net foreign exchange (loss)/gain Income tax expense ‒ Various factors determine the value of the items between underlying EBITDA and profit after tax ‒ Further information on these line items is available in the: ‒ Annual and Interim Financial Statements and Notes to them ‒ HY and FY releases 36 Group Working capital average turnover The information provided below is historic working capital data which may be helpful when considering working capital requirements Note movements in WC depend on period-end prices, not average prices for the period Inventory – average holding period Trade Payables Raw Materials Work in Progress Finished Goods Total Inventory Zn 1 1 0.25 2 - 2.5 Pb 1 1.5 0.25 2.5 – 3 Ag 1 3–4 0.5 4-6 Months Notes Concentrate = Production / Grade / Recovery Completion Rate and Conversion Cost assumed Reflect conditions of Off-take Agreements Category Average Period (Months) People Cost - Notes Paid in same month All other Opex costs 1-2 Paid in following month Capex 1-2 Paid in following month 0-1 90% paid in the same month of purchase Raw Materials (COGS) 10% paid in the following month Trade Receivables Category Debtors Average Period (Months) 0.75 - 1 Notes Average outstanding receivables as proportion of revenues Note that working capital requirements at mines are significantly less than at smelters as: There are no raw materials (and so no associated costs) Therefore inventory is valued on operating costs only (cost to convert ore into concentrate) The average holding period of WIP is lower 37 Group Working capital Nyrstar’s working capital position is correlated to the wider commodity price environment Nyrstar’s inventory valuation increases as metal prices rise Weaker metal price environments provide additional liquidity through the declining replacement cost of inventory Nyrstar’s EUR 400m Structured Commodity Trade Facility (SCTF) allows the Company to absorb working capital outflows in a rising price environment Attractive working capital dynamics1 Change in inventory (mEUR) Change in inventory H2’15 falling price environ ment Zinc Price (USD/t) Silver price (USD/Oz) 200 150 2016 rising price environment Zn price ($/t) 2,500 2,000 100 50 1,500 0 1,000 -50 -100 500 -150 -200 0 H1-10 H2-10 H1-11 H2-11 H1-12 H2-12 H1-13 1,725 Zinc price ($/t) 18.0 Silver price ($/Oz) 66 OCF before NWC (€m) 2 9 Change NWC (€m) 3 (68) Other move-t in OCF 4 8 CF from operation 2,281 29.0 107 86 31 224 2,030 36.0 123 (111) (24) (12) 1,916 30.0 106 122 (95) 134 1,856 28.0 58 203 (20) 242 2,038 32.0 95 23 2 120 1,839 21.0 (3) 98 0 94 ‒ ‒ ‒ H2-13 H1-14 1,974 20.0 96 71 37 205 1 Unaudited, illustrative figures based on Nyrstar internal management accounts. 2 Cash flow from operating activities before working capital changes as per Cash Flow Statement 3 Change in NWC does not include changes in other assets and liabilities and provisions and employee 2,051 20.1 88 60 19 167 H2-14 2,273 18.1 120 121 (97) 144 H1-15 2,113 16.6 124 (53) (86) (14) H2-15 1,731 14.8 98 (94) 4 7 H1-16 1,799 15.8 54 (66) (3) (15) H2-16 2,384 18.4 115 (61) (65) (11) 38 benefits Group Capital Expenditure Nyrstar segregates Metals Processing segment capital expenditure into the following categories o Sustaining / Non-growth, including o sustaining spend to continue existing production facilities, including periodic maintenance shuts o compliance: environmental, legal and safety spend to comply with internal and external standards o Port Pirie Redevelopment: spend on the redevelopment of the Port Pirie lead smelter into a poly-metallic processing & recovery centre o Growth: spend on Metals Processing Growth Investment Pipeline projects – a transformative investment program allowing the capture of benefits from Nyrstar’s integrated lead/zinc network and development of new multi-metals recovery capabilities Nyrstar segregates Mining segment capital expenditure into the following categories o Exploration: exploration and evaluation of potential mineral reserves and resources o Development: activities to define, block out and gain access to the ore and prepare it for production o Sustaining: sustaining spend to continue existing production facilities; environmental, legal and safety spend to comply with internal and external standards o Growth: spend on expansion of current production capacities 39 Group 2017 guidance Production Metals Processing Zinc (kt) Mining - metal in concentrate Zinc (kt) Capex 2016 Actual 2017 Guidance 1,015 1,000 – 1,100 96 115 – 135 €’m 2016 Actual 2017 Guidance 236 97 44 95 205 – 255 100 – 135 25 – 35 80 - 85 21 35 – 50 261 240 – 305 Metals Processing Sustaining Growth Port Pirie Redevelopment Mining Group capex • Mining production guidance will be impacted by any further divestments • Estimated impact of maintenance shuts on 2017 production have been taken into account when determining zinc metal guidance for 2017 Planned maintenance shuts Smelter & production step impacted Auby – roaster, acid plant Timing and duration Estimated impact Q3: 2 weeks Nil Balen – cellhouse Q2: 3 weeks 11,000 tonnes Balen – roaster F5 Q3: 4 weeks Nil Budel – roaster N1, roaster N2, acid plant Q2: 4 weeks 4,000 tonnes Budel – HV Transformer 1 & 2 Q2 & Q4: 1 week (each) 2,500 tonnes (each) Clarksville – roaster, acid plant, cellhouse Q3: 1 week 3,000 tonnes Hobart – roaster, acid plant Q2: 5 weeks 5,500 tonnes Port Pirie – blast furnace, lead refinary Q2: 6 weeks 22,000 tonnes 40 Group Managing metal price risk During the working capital cycle, both smelters and mines are exposed to changes in metal prices Nyrstar does not hedge price risk at the mines but hedges transactional price risk at the smelters The simplified process below is an example of price risk and expsoure within zinc Mining and Metals Processing Time Month 0 Mine Month 2 Zinc concetrate transported between mine and smelter Month 3 Month 4 Zinc metal transported between smelter and end user Smelter End User Physical flow Commercial flow Zinc Price (USD/t) Financial flow Risk or Exposure Mine sells payable zinc contained in concentrate to smelter on a 3 month quotational period (QP) 1 Smelter sells zinc metal to end user on a 1 month QP USD 2,400 Provisional price USD 2,200 QP [final] price USD 2,100 QP [final] price Mine invoices smelter at provisional price Mine re-invoices smelter at final (QP) price [less payment to date] Smelter recognises sales invoice value (USD 2,100) and final purchase invoice value (USD2,200) Mine exposed to USD 200 change in price Smelter pays USD 2,200 and sells at USD 2,100; a USD 100 risk free metal carries no risk but exposure Managing risk Smelters’ achieve ‘natural hedge’ with 3 month QP (USD 200 price decline offset by setting QP price at month 3 price) Smelters’ hedge risk by ensuring purchase price = sales price ) USD 2,200) 1 Quotational Period (QP) is the contractually agreed timeframe which determines the metal price the smelter pays to the mine (usually the average price of the QP). Duration of QP can vary and is independent of physical flows 41 Group 2016 Underlying EBITDA sensitivity Parameter 2016 average price/rate Estimated annual 2016 Underlying EBITDA impact (€’m) Change +/-10% Metals Processing Mining +97 (79) EUR:USD* 1.11 -/+ 10% Zinc price $2,095/t -/+ 10% Zinc Base TC $203/dmt -/+ 10% (28) EUR:AUD* 1.49 -/+ 10% (28) (39) +53 +28 +23 +5 (4) (15) +15 +3 (3) - - Group +102 (83) (54) +68 (25) +25 (28) +23 $17.14/oz -/+ 10% (4) +4 (1) +1 (5) +5 $4,863/t -/+ 10% (2) +2 (1) +1 (3) +3 Gold price $1,250/oz -/+ 10% (1) +1 - - (1) +1 Lead price $1,872/t -/+ 10% (1) +1 - - (1) +1 Lead TC $165/dmt -/+ 10% (4) - - (4) +4 1.09 -/+ 10% - - (5) +4 Silver price Copper price EUR:CHF +4 - - * In 2016, Nyrstar has implemented a strategic foreign exchange hedging program to reduce the transactional impact of foreign exchange rate movements (transactional impact defined as cash outflows due to expenses in non-USD currencies). Nyrstar has executed strategic foreign exchange hedges utilizing put and call collar structures. For the EUR/USD transactional exposure, various collars have been executed resulting in a weighted average collar of 1.08 to 1.15 for approximately 75% of the total transactional expenses for 2016. For the AUD/USD transactional exposure, various collars have been executed resulting in a weighted average collar of 0.68 to 0.83 for approximately 100% of the total transactional expenses for 2016 and 25% of H1 2017. The sensitivities give the estimated effect on Underlying EBITDA assuming that each individual price or exchange rate moved in isolation. The relationship between currencies and commodity prices is a complex one and movements in exchange rates can affect movements in commodity prices and vice versa. The exchange rate sensitivities include the effect on operating costs but exclude the effect on the revaluation of foreign currency working capital. They should therefore be used with care. 42 VI. Port Pirie Redevelopment uplift modelling 43 Transformation EBITDA uplift driven by substantially increased throughput and margin on internal zinc smelter residues Port Pirie throughput Indicative Port Pirie feed content * Indicative Margin per metal ** k dmt Internal Residues Pb Concentrates 620 260 360 Int. Res. Lead (kt) Silver (Moz) Gold (koz) Copper (kt) Zinc (kt) 2016 2020 Int. Res. 2016-20 3 30 Lead ~99% 0.4 3.8 Silver 75-85% 5 25 Gold 80-90% 1 3 Copper 90-95% 10 25 Zinc ~15% 2016 2020 Pb Conc’s 180 220 15.0 Blended Margin 2016-20 Lead 12-21% Silver 8-17% 2016 Gold 15-16% Lead ~10% Copper 90-95% 20.0 Silver 5-7% Zinc Uplift *** 0.5-1.0% 40 160 Gold 6-9% 5 6 Copper 90-95% 15 18 Zinc ~90% 60 360 300 2016 2020 Pb Conc’s Lead (kt) Silver (Moz) Gold (koz) Copper (kt) Zinc (kt) * Content values presented on rounded basis ** Indicative margin represents approx. net value capture i.e. (Payable out – Payable in / Recoveries) *** Blended Zinc margin uplift represents increase in average zinc free metal capture at segment level attributable to Port Pire Transformation 44 Increased throughput and increased margins provide a substantial segment earnings uplift once ramped-up 1 2 Indicative Production and consumption 3 Indicative Margin % * Prices ** Production 2016 2018 2019 2020 Margin 2016 2018 2019 2020 2016 Average Prices Lead (kt) 182 185 230 250 Lead 12% 19% 20% 21% Lead $1,872/t Silver (Moz) 15 16 21 23 Silver 8% 12% 17% 17% Silver $17/oz Gold (koz) 46 125 165 180 Gold 16% 16% 16% 16% Gold $1,250/oz Copper (kt) 5 6 7 8 Copper 95% 90% 90% 90% Zinc (kt, segment) 1016 1060 1060 1060 Zinc 0.50% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Acid (kt) 1357 1600 1725 1725 Acid n/a n/a n/a n/a Consumption 2016 2018 2019 2020 2016 Avg Realised Pb TC Pb concs (k dmt) 300 280 340 360 $190/dmt Int Res (k dmt) 60 150 210 260 n/a X 4 X Copper $4,863/t Zinc $2,095/t = Acid $40/t Indicative Gross Profit Uplift less DOC = EBITDA uplift Indicative U.EBITDA Uplift Uplift in Gross Profit Change in Port Pirie DOC *** Uplift in EBITDA 2018 2019 2020 €66m €138m €164m (€24m) (€34m) (€34m) €42m €104m €130m * Margin represents increase in net value capture i.e. (Payable out – Payable in / Recoveries) ** Uplift based on applying 2016 annual average metal prices, FX rates and 2016 commercial terms *** Increase in Port Pirie DOC converted to EURm applying 2016 annual average EUR:AUD FX rate 45 For further information: Anthony Simms Head of Investor Relations D: +41 (0)44 745 8157 M: +41 (0)79 722 2152 E: [email protected] www.nyrstar.com 46
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