US election: Clinton vs Trump chance of winning
Percentage
Probability of winning the key States
Electoral Clinton (chance of winning,
Votes
%)
California
Texas
Florida
New York
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Georgia
Michigan
North Carolina
New Jersey
Virginia
Washington
Arizona
Indiana
Massachusetts
Tennessee
Maryland
Minnesota
Missouri
Wisconsin
55
38
29
29
20
20
18
16
16
15
14
13
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
99.9
4.3
49.6
99.7
98.2
75.5
35.8
17.6
78.2
49.6
96.5
82.2
97.4
26.9
2.3
99.8
0.4
99.9
81.7
2.9
81.4
Trump (chance of winning,
%)
0.1
95.7
50.4
0.3
1.8
24.5
64.2
82.4
21.8
50.4
3.5
17.8
2.6
73.1
97.7
0.2
99.6
0.1
18.3
97.1
18.6
Clinton (Democratic)
Fiscal Policy
Infrastructure
$275bn over five years (0.3% Double Clinton's programme,
of GDP per annum)
0.6% of GDP per annum.
Taxes
Total hikes of $1.1bn over 10
years (0.6% of GDP).
Slightly larger than currently
projected
Total cuts of $3trn over 10
years (1.6% of GDP).
Larger deficit. The US could
lose last two AAA ratings
Previously positive, now
wants better terms.
Expressed scepticism
Withdraw from TPP
Budget
Trade Policy
Trump (Republican)
TPP
NAFTA
Overall
Renegotiate (potentially leave)
NAFTA
Aggressive protectionist trade
policy, risking trade war
Against low rate policy
Replace Yellen
Substantially more hawkish
against free trade
Hawkish on immigrants
Foreign Policy
Will try to abandon
protectionist
Status quo
Reappointment of Yellen
Status quo
Immigration
Status quo
US Dollar
Equities
Fixed Income
Neutral
Marginally negative for USD
Positive (ignoring valuations) Negative (ignoring valuations)
Status quo
Upside risk for yields
Monetary Policy
Overall Approach
Chairman of Fed
US Democrats have been better for US economic growth