WHAT IS TERRORISM?
• Terrorism is a “means” rather than an “ends”
• Lots of political violence includes this method: Total war (including
nuclear), insurgencies, separatist movements, counter-insurgencies,
coup d’états,
• Terrorism is: “unlawful or illegitimate (?) violence directed against
civilians to invoke fear to obtain a political end.” The last bit reflects
the fact that much of what we consider to be terrorism is a
historically new “norm” or “construction”
• Are “irregular combatants” terrorists?
• Is political assassination an act of terrorism? Is targeting police? Are
economic sanctions? Are “dumb” projectiles? Are landmines?
• What is “state terrorism”? What is “state-sponsored terrorism”? The
vast majority of terrorism is not “intl.” or “transnational” because it
is poorly suited to deliver what terrorists want. A lot of
“transnational” terrorism is really “domestic terrorism” with a brand.
• Why does terrorism work? It needs us to help…
IS TERRORISM ON THE RISE?
Countries with the highest number of deaths by terrorism 2013
Countries with the highest number of deaths by terrorism in 2013, by
percentage of total deaths
Note: Worldwide
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 8.
Source: IEP; ID 377061
SHOULD WE PUT THINGS IN
PERSPECTIVE?
• The federal government has spent over $80 billion
on aviation security in the past 10 years. Yet "your
chance of dying in a bathtub is about one in a
million, and from terrorism is about one in 3.5
million"
- Ohio State political scientist John Mueller.
Source: http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/02/us/oregon-shooting-terrorism-gun-violence/
Death by 1000 cuts? OBL’s hope
Mueller, cont.
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WHO
BECOMES
A
TERRORIST?
How do we know who becomes a terrorist? Methods to answer this
question (states with it, communities that generate it, & individual level
determinants)
The vast majority of people don’t become terrorists… which means that
our “regression models” completely stink (low r-square).
Why do young males become terrorists (risk, frustration, violence,
oversimplification)? Relative deprivation, biology, and family status
Some common traits among terrorists: foreign occupation (is #1 factor in
predicting suicide terrorism), a receptive audience (media and society) an
oversimplified worldview, frustration (relative deprivation), selfrighteousness, social isolation (often in refugee camps or cults), a taste for
glamour, indoctrination, and state support?
Despite Magstadt’s suggestion that only dealing with “injustice despair,
and hopelessness” will solve terrorism, people become terrorists only
when and where that model works. And, there are almost always
productive counter-terrorism strategies that don’t involve social
transformation
Why would anyone “rationally” become a suicide bomber? Ask Hamas or a
postmodern political scientist… Why do people sign up for war?
WHAT EXACTLY IS AL QAEDA? ISIS? WHAT CAUSED
THEm?
• Why is empathy so important even if you can’t imagine
ever sympathizing with terrorists?
• Sorting the nominally Islamic groups out: Hezbollah
(Shia, Iran ties), Hamas (Palestinian, Sunni), Al Qaeda
(1988, Pan-Wahabi front based in Afghanistan), al-Nusra
Front (AQ affiliate in Iraq, which became ISIS)
• Is Islam itself the source of terrorism?
• Key figures setting up AQ: Sayid Qutb (Muslim
Brotherhood)  Ayman Zawahiri  Osama Bin Laden
• ISI=ISIS=ISIL: Seeks “caliphate” in Levant region, which
approximately covers Syria, Jordan, Israel, Palestine,
Lebanon, Cyprus, and part of southern Turkey
• What does AQ and its successors want, and why do they
use violence against other Muslims?
WHAT’S AQ’S PROBLEM WITH THE US
(AND OUR ALLIES)?
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How do we know? Bin Laden’s declaration of war
Our military presence in the holy lands
Our relationship with Israel
Support for corrupt “apostate” regimes
The “enslavement of Iraq” (what about Iran?)
Subordination of the Muslim world in economic,
cultural, & military terms
• Forcing Muslim countries to sell oil at reduced prices.
CAN WE WIN THE WAR ON TERRORISM OR WILL IT INCREASE
IN THE 21ST CENTURY? PROBABLY THE LATTER
• Maybe winning means putting everything into context.
• Why do democratization and a global appreciation for human
rights increase terrorism? (Terrorists take advantage of our
concerns for everyday people)
• Globalization increases relative deprivation and motivates
young people to action
• Globalization and the media: The global village allows fear to
move quickly and broadly
• Globalization and spreading ideology: It’s a lot easier to
connect nuts together and to make them feel like part of the
same community. It also makes it cheaper and more easier
than ever for radicals to seem like an alternative
• Financing for terror, and technical know how: The key to Al