Minimizing Unforeseen Consequences
• The gauntlet
• The DHS-funded tool
• The non-profit leveraging that tool
(and others)
• Discussion
• Summary
July 28, 2017
1
The Gauntlet
• John Voeller’s keynote at COFES 2011 on
Wide-Thinking
July 28, 2017
2
July 28, 2017
3
Minimizing Unforeseen Consequences
• The Gauntlet
• The DHS-funded tool
• The non-profit leveraging that tool
(and others)
• Discussion
• Summary
July 28, 2017
4
Miriam Heller, Ph.D.
EcoBuild Conference
Washington, DC
December 8, 2011
TOOLS FOR MANAGING CHANGE IN
UNCERTAIN AND COMPLEX
ENVIRONMENTS
July 28, 2017
5
CIPDSS
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•
•
•
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What is it?
Why was it created?
What is it for?
Why should I care?
What is its current status?
July 28, 2017
6
What is CIPDSS?
• Critical Infrastructure Protection
Decision Support System
July 28, 2017
7
Critical Infrastructures
Agriculture
and Food
Banking and
Finance
Chemical
Commercial
Facilities
Communications
Critical
Manufacturing
Dams
Defense Industrial
Base
Emergency
Services
Energy
Government
Facilities
Healthcare and
Public Health
Information
Technology
National
Monuments and
Icons
Nuclear
Reactors,
Materials and
Waste
Postal and
Shipping
Transportation
Systems
Water
July 28, 2017
8
What is CIPDSS?
• Critical Infrastructure Protection
Decision Support System
• A complex “system of systems”
• Consisting of suites of interdependent models of
infrastructure
July 28, 2017
9
Infrastructure Interdependencies
July 28, 2017
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Why was CIPDSS created?
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•
•
•
9/11 validated our intuition
Unforeseen consequences to infrastructure
DHS created
Clear need for a tool to assess and manage
risk to protect infrastructure deemed critical
to the national interest and wellbeing
• Concept: Spreadsheet of risks, targets, and
points of potential attack or failure
July 28, 2017
11
What is CIPDSS for?
• Designed to simulate how changes or disruptions
propagate across different infrastructures
• For the purpose of helping leaders make decisions
with a clearer understanding of risks and the range of
the consequences of those decisions
July 28, 2017
Source: B. Bush
12
How CIPDSS got started
• Goal
– A risk-informed decision support tool to provide insights
for making Critical Infrastructure-related decisions.
• Sponsor
– CIP Portfolio, Science & Technology Directorate of DHS
• Project Team
– Argonne National Laboratory
– Los Alamos National Laboratory
– Sandia National Laboratories
• Phased, iterative development, keyed on specific cases
July 28, 2017
Source: B. Bush
13
What does CIPDSS address?
• Threats
– Malevolent, Insider, Accidental, Natural
• Vulnerabilities
– Physical, Human, Cyber, Intellectual
– Dependencies and Interdependencies
• Consequences
– Life, Economic, Property, Environmental
July 28, 2017
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Why should I care?
July 28, 2017
16
CIPDSS Vision
July 28, 2017
Source: B. Bush
17
What is its current status?
• $60M+ spent on development
• Met mandate (CIPDSS vision) but not its
potential (world impact)
• No funding for model development or
enhancement
• Mostly idle
• Underutilized asset with significant value to
others
July 28, 2017
18
Minimizing Unforeseen Consequences
• The Gauntlet
• The DHS-funded tool
• The non-profit leveraging that tool
(and others)
• Discussion
• Summary
July 28, 2017
20
Introducing:
July 28, 2017
21
Introducing C4UC
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•
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Founding Principles
Our Team
Architecture & “Special Sauces”
Timeline & Status
Discussion
July 28, 2017
22
Founding Principles
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•
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•
•
501c3
We ≯Them
♒
Purple
July 28, 2017
Not in it for the money
Collaborative, not combative
Increase value stepwise
Non-partisan
Act globally
23
Founding Principles
• -=+
•
•
•
July 28, 2017
• Negative findings count, too
• Infer, not impose semantic
structure
Remember:
• Further we look, the lower the
probability
• Data and Models are only an
abstraction
24
Our Team
• Vision and Management
– Holtz, Jackson, Hammond, Richardson, Noel
• Science and Systems
– Cummings, Heller, Gheorghe, Ullman, Riddle, Seitz
• Directors and Advisors
– Voeller, House, Gage, Morley, Hall, Brinks
• Relationships
– SNL, ANL, LANL, Stanford
July 28, 2017
25
Architecture
• Stage 1: Access
• Stage 2: “Special Sauces”
– Framework, Visualization, Decision Support
• Stage 3: Other Data and Models
• Stage 4: Science
July 28, 2017
26
Stage 1: Access
• C4UC acts as an agent between our
constituents and The Labs (ANL, SNL, & LANL)
• Labs contain deep silos of scientific expertise
• C4UC focuses on
– problem definition
– necessary handoffs
– Interpretation to
support decisions
July 28, 2017
27
Stage 2: “Special Sauces”
• Decision Support
• Visualization
– Squishiness of Results
– Feel for Sensitivity
– Understand Precision
July 28, 2017
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Stage 2: “Special Sauces”
• Decision Support
• Visualization
• Framework
– Speed
– Soup
July 28, 2017
29
Stage 3: Other Data & Models
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•
•
•
Open Source
University
C4UC
Private
All in the “soup”
July 28, 2017
30
Stage 4: New Science
• Others focus
on the deep
science
• We focus on
the handoffs
July 28, 2017
31
Stage 4: New Science
• Framework supports many models
• The science of interdependencies between
models is incomplete
• We will fund new research on that incomplete
knowledge
July 28, 2017
32
Timeline & Status
• Stage 1: Q1 ‘12
• Stage 2: Framework
– Proof of concept <30 days
– Development 1H’12
– Initial operations 2H’12
• Stage 2: Visualization
– Funding dependent. On schedule for 2H’12 or 1H’13
• Stage 2: Decision Support
– Proof of concept complete
– Initial operations w/in 30 days of first customer
request
July 28, 2017
33
Minimizing Unforeseen Consequences
• The Gauntlet
• The DHS-funded tool
• The non-profit leveraging that tool
(and others)
• Discussion
• Summary
July 28, 2017
34
Minimizing Unforeseen Consequences
• The Gauntlet
• The DHS-funded tool
• The non-profit leveraging that tool
(and others)
• Discussion
• Summary
July 28, 2017
35
Summary
• Today’s problems are not isolated or short term
• US Gov’t has 100s of models for insight
• Current situation:
– Investment (CIPDSS seed) has already been made
– Met mandate (CIPDSS vision) but not its potential
(world impact)
– No one is doing this in a integrated fashion (providing
access)
– Everyone is focusing on their own area of interest
July 28, 2017
36
Summary
• C4UC was created to as nonprofit to address
this and provide insight and decision support
– 2nd to 4th order cascade of consequences
– Orchestrated execution
– Speed model execution
– Add additional models
• C4UC’s mission is to provide insight
– Making known the knowable
– Education and Research
July 28, 2017
37