Integrated water pollution assessment in data- and
resource-poor situations : Lake Victoria and Gulf of
Guinea case studies
Scheren, P.A.G.M.
DOI:
10.6100/IR564667
Published: 01/01/2003
Document Version
Publisher’s PDF, also known as Version of Record (includes final page, issue and volume numbers)
Please check the document version of this publication:
• A submitted manuscript is the author's version of the article upon submission and before peer-review. There can be important differences
between the submitted version and the official published version of record. People interested in the research are advised to contact the
author for the final version of the publication, or visit the DOI to the publisher's website.
• The final author version and the galley proof are versions of the publication after peer review.
• The final published version features the final layout of the paper including the volume, issue and page numbers.
Link to publication
Citation for published version (APA):
Scheren, P. A. G. M. (2003). Integrated water pollution assessment in data- and resource-poor situations : Lake
Victoria and Gulf of Guinea case studies Eindhoven: Technische Universiteit Eindhoven DOI: 10.6100/IR564667
General rights
Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners
and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.
• Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.
• You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain
• You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ?
Take down policy
If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately
and investigate your claim.
Download date: 28. Jul. 2017
,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW
LQ'DWDDQG5HVRXUFH3RRU6LWXDWLRQV
/DNH9LFWRULDDQG*XOIRI*XLQHD&DVH6WXGLHV
352()6&+5,)7
WHUYHUNULMJLQJYDQGHJUDDGYDQGRFWRUDDQGH
7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWHLW(LQGKRYHQRSJH]DJYDQGH
5HFWRU0DJQLILFXVSURIGU5$YDQ6DQWHQYRRU
HHQFRPPLVVLHDDQJHZH]HQGRRUKHW&ROOHJHYRRU
3URPRWLHVLQKHWRSHQEDDUWHYHUGHGLJHQ
RSGLQVGDJMXQLRPXXU
GRRU
3HWHU$QWRQLXV*XLOKHOPXV0DULD6FKHUHQ
JHERUHQWH(LQGKRYHQ
'LWSURHIVFKULIWLVJRHGJHNHXUGGRRUGHSURPRWRUHQ
SURIGULU)--*-DQVVHQ
HQ
SURIGU/+RUGLMN
&RSURPRWRU
GULU.-3WDVLQVNL
&,3'$7$/,%5$5<7(&+1,6&+(81,9(56,7(,7(,1'+29(1
6FKHUHQ3HWHU$*0
,QWHJUDWHGZDWHUSROOXWLRQDVVHVVPHQWLQGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUVLWXDWLRQV/DNH9LFWRULD
DQG*XOIRI*XLQHDFDVHVWXGLHVE\3HWHU$*06FKHUHQ±(LQGKRYHQ7HFKQLVFKH
8QLYHUVLWHLW(LQGKRYHQ
3URHIVFKULIW±,6%1
185
7UHIZRRUGHQZDWHUYHURQWUHLQLJLQJLQWHJUDDOPLOLHXRQGHU]RHN,($RSSHUYODNWHZDWHUHQ
PLOLHXPDQDJHPHQWRQWZLNNHOLQJVODQGHQ$IULND9LFWRULDPHHUHQ*ROIYDQ*XLQHH
HXWURILsULQJQXWULsQWHQ'36,5
6XEMHFWKHDGLQJVZDWHUSROOXWLRQLQWHJUDWHGHQYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQW,($VXUIDFH
ZDWHUVHQYLURQPHQWDOPDQDJHPHQWGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV$IULFD/DNH9LFWRULDDQG*XOI
RI*XLQHDHXWURSKLFDWLRQQXWULHQWV'36,5
‹3$*06FKHUHQ(LQGKRYHQ
$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG1RSDUWRIWKLVSXEOLFDWLRQPD\EHUHSURGXFHGVWRUHGLQDUHWULHYDO
V\VWHPRUWUDQVPLWWHGLQDQ\IRUPRUE\DQ\PHDQVHOHFWURQLFPHFKDQLFDORUSKRWRFRS\LQJ
UHFRUGLQJRURWKHUZLVHZLWKRXWWKHSULRUZULWWHQSHUPLVVLRQRIWKHDXWKRU
2QFHXSRQDWLPHWKHUHZDVDUDMDKLQWKLVUHJLRQZKRFDOOHGWRDFHUWDLQPDQDQG
VDLGµ*DWKHUWRJHWKHULQRQHSODFHDOOWKHPHQLQ6DYDWWKLZKRZHUHERUQEOLQGDQG
VKRZWKHPDQHOHSKDQW¶
µ9HU\JRRGVLUHVDLGWKHPDQDQGGLGDVKHZDVWROGDQGVDLGWRWKHPµ2EOLQG
VXFKDVWKLVLVDQHOHSKDQW¶DQGWRRQHPDQKHSUHVHQWHGWKHKHDGRIWKHHOHSKDQWWR
DQRWKHULWVHDUVWRDQRWKHUDWXVNWRDQRWKHUWKHWUXQNWKHIRRWEDFNWDLODQGWXIWRI
WKHWDLOVD\LQJWRHDFKRQHWKDWZDVWKHHOHSKDQW
7KHUHXSRQEUHWKUHQWKDWUDMDKZHQWXSWRWKHEOLQGPHQDQGVDLGWRHDFKµ7HOO
PHZKDWVRUWRIWKLQJLVDQHOHSKDQW"¶7KHUHXSRQWKRVHZKRKDGEHHQSUHVHQWHGZLWK
WKHKHDGDQVZHUHGµ6LUHDQHOHSKDQWLVOLNHDSRW¶$QGWKRVHZKRKDGREVHUYHGDQ
HDU RQO\ UHSOLHG µ$Q HOHSKDQW LV OLNH D ZLQQRZLQJ EDVNHW¶ 7KRVH ZKR KDG EHHQ
SUHVHQWHGZLWKDWXVNVDLGLWZDVDSORZVKDUH7KRVHZKRQHZRQO\WKHEDFNDPRUWDU
WKHWDLODSHVWOHWKHWXIWRIWKHWDLOMXVWDEURRP
7KHQWKH\EHJDQWRTXDUUHOVKRXWLQJµ<HVLWLV¶µ1RLWLVQRW¶µ$QHOHSKDQWLVQRW
WKDW¶µ<HVLW¶VOLNHWKDW¶DQGVRRQWLOOWKH\FDPHWRILVWLFXIIVRYHUWKHPDWWHU7KHQ
WKHEUHWKUHQWKDWUDMDKUHIOHFWHGGHHSO\XSRQWKHVFHQH
8GDQD,9
3UHIDFHDFNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
7KHSXEOLFDWLRQRIWKLVGLVVHUWDWLRQPDUNVWKHHQGRIDSHULRGRI\HDUVRIP\OLIH'XULQJ
WKLVSHULRG,ZRUNHGDQGOLYHGDEURDGIRUPXFKRIWKHWLPHDORQHERWKPRVWO\WRJHWKHUZLWK
P\ ZLIH 6DELQH ,W KDV EHHQ IRUHPRVW D YHU\ HQMR\DEOH SHULRG EXW DOVR YHU\ IUXLWIXO DQG
VDWLVI\LQJ,H[SHULHQFHGDQGOHDUQHGDORWQRWRQO\RQDSURIHVVLRQDOOHYHOEXWDOVRLQWHUPVRI
JHWWLQJWRNQRZGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHVDQGFXOWXUHV
,WDOOVWDUWHGZLWKD\HDUDVVLJQPHQWDVDUHVHDUFKDVVLVWDQW$,2DW(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI
7HFKQRORJ\(877RJHWKHUZLWK-HURHQ%RVERRPDIHOORZ$,2DWWKHWLPHDQG.DUROL1MDX
IURPWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI'DUHV6DODDP,HPEDUNHGRQVWXG\RQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQRI
/DNH 9LFWRULD LQ (DVW $IULFD /RJLVWLFDOO\ VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH &HQWUH IRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&RRSHUDWLRQ$FWLYLWLHV&,&$RI(87:HSDFNHGVRPHFORWKLQJDURSHDQGDEXVKNQLIHDQG
GURYHLQDZKHHOGULYHIURP'DUHV6DODDPWRWKHODNH7KHWULSDORQHZDVZRUWKLWULJKW
WKURXJK WKH PLGGOH RI 6HUHQJHWWL 1DWLRQDO SDUNP\ILUVWH[SHULHQFHZLWKWKHXWWHUEHDXW\RI
$IULFDQQDWXUH
6RRQKRZHYHUZHGLVFRYHUHGWKDWRXUVHOIDSSRLQWHGDVVLJQPHQWZDVQRWJRLQJWREHHDV\
:KHUH WR JR IRU WKH QHFHVVDU\ LQIRUPDWLRQ WR EDVH RXU VWXG\ RQ" ,V WKHUH DFWXDOO\ DQ\
LQIRUPDWLRQ"$FFRUGLQJWRDQROG&KLQHVHVD\LQJ³HYHU\WKLQJWKHUHLVWRNQRZLVVRPHZKHUH
LQWKHXQLYHUVHWKHDUWLVRQO\WRILQGLW´$PLGVWWKHWURSLFDOKHDWZHVHDUFKHGQXPHURXVGXVW\
DQGKXPLGRIILFHVLQWKHUHJLRQWRWUDFHGRFXPHQWVDQGLQIRUPDWLRQ:HKHOGGLVFXVVLRQVZLWK
FRXQWOHVVSHRSOHDOORIWKHPH[WUHPHO\IULHQGO\DQGZHOFRPLQJDQGDOORIWKHPHDJHUWRJLYH
WKHLURSLQLRQRQWKHFRQGLWLRQRIWKHLUODNH8QGHUVXFKFRQGLWLRQVUHVHDUFKLQYROYHVDYHU\
LQYHQWLYH DQG SUDJPDWLF DWWLWXGH 1RW RQO\ LQ D SUDFWLFDO VHQVH EHFDXVH JHWWLQJ VWXFN LQ WKH
PLGGOHRIWKH6HUHQJHWWL1DWLRQDO3DUNZLWKDFROOHDJXHH[SHULHQFLQJZKDWLWLVWRKDYHPDODULD
UHTXLUHVVRPHDGDSWDWLRQEXWDOVRLQWHUPVRIWKHDFWXDOUHVHDUFK
7KLV LV ZKDW WKLV WKHVLV LV DOO DERXW KRZ WR FRQGXFW D VWXG\ RI WKH FDXVHV DQG HIIHFWV RI
HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ RQ D ODNH ODUJHU WKDQ WKH 1HWKHUODQGV LQ VL]H ZLWK ILYH GLIIHUHQW
FRXQWULHVLQLWVDUHDRILQIOXHQFHZKHUHOLWWOHGDWDDQGLQIRUPDWLRQH[LVWDQGZKHUHWKHRSWLRQV
WR REWDLQ PRUH LQIRUPDWLRQ WKURXJK IRU H[DPSOH H[SHULPHQWDO ILHOG ZRUN DUH YHU\ OLPLWHG
8QGHUOLQJWKLVWKHVLVLVWKHUHIRUHQRWRQO\DTXHVWIRULQIRUPDWLRQWKURXJKRIWHQUHPRWHDUHDVRI
$IULFDEXWDOVRDTXHVWIRUDSSURSULDWHDSSURDFKHVDQGPHWKRGRORJLHVWRPDNHVHQVHRXWRI
WKLVLQIRUPDWLRQ,QWKHHQG,EHOLHYH,VXFFHHGHGKRZHYHU0RUHRYHUZKHUHP\FRSLRQHHUV
RQ WKLV UHVHDUFK GLYHUWHG WR RWKHU LQWHUHVWV , FRQWLQXHG WR GHYHORS P\ VWXG\ RYHU WKH \HDUV
IROORZLQJP\$,2DVVLJQPHQWDVD¶KREE\¶QH[WWRDIXOOWLPHMRE$QXPEHURIVWXGHQWVIURP
(87 DQG WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 'DU HV 6DODDP FRRSHUDWHG LQ D IXUWKHU HODERUDWLRQ RI WKH LQLWLDO
UHVHDUFK UHVXOWV 7KHLU QDPHV DUH GHILQLWHO\ ZRUWKZKLOH PHQWLRQLQJ KHUH VLQFH ZLWKRXW WKHLU
HIIRUWV WKLV WKHVLV ZRXOG SUREDEO\ QRW KDYHEHHQSRVVLEOH'DYLGYDQ+RUHQ+DUUR=DQWLQJ
0DULH2GLOH=DQGHUV3DVFDO9OLHJKH9HURQLFD0LUDPERHQ+HUZLFK+REEHOHQ
3UHIDFH$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
L
%DVHGXSRQWKHH[SHULHQFHVJDLQHGIURPWKH/DNH9LFWRULDFDVHVWXG\,H[WHQGHGP\UHVHDUFK
WR D VHFRQG FDVH VWXG\ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD FRDVWDO ZDWHU V\VWHP LQ :HVW $IULFD )RU WKLV
UHDVRQ D FRRSHUDWLRQ EHWZHHQ (87 DQG WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV ,QGXVWULDO 'HYHORSPHQW
2UJDQLVDWLRQ 81,'2 ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG LQ XQGHU FRRUGLQDWLRQ RI WKH ,QVWLWXWH RI
7HFKQRORJ\IRU6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW7'2RI(87$WWKHEDVLVRIWKLVFRRSHUDWLRQZDV
P\ HPSOR\PHQW DW WKDW WLPH DV DQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ H[SHUW IRU WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD
/DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHP 3URMHFW H[HFXWHG E\ 81,'2 DQG ILQDQFHG E\ WKH *OREDO
(QYLURQPHQW )DFLOLW\ *() )LQDQFLQJ IRU WKH MRLQW UHVHDUFK ZDV DWWUDFWHG IURP WKH 'XWFK
0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWDQG6SDWLDO'HYHORSPHQW9520WRHQJDJHJUDGXDWHVWXGHQWVLQ
UHVHDUFK DVVLJQPHQWV RQ WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ RI WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD /DUJH 0DULQH
(FRV\VWHP-RRVW2VVHYRRUW-HDQHWWH.OHLQDQG0DUN6WLSKRXW
$ FRQVLGHUDEOH QXPEHU RI VFLHQWLILF DQG VHPLVFLHQWLILF SXEOLFDWLRQV KDYH UHVXOWHG IURP WKH
DERYHGHVFULEHGUHVHDUFKDFWLYLWLHVDQGDUHOLVWHGLQWKHSXEOLFDWLRQOLVWSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLV
$ QXPEHU RI WKHVH SXEOLFDWLRQ FRQVWLWXWH WKH FRUH RI FKDSWHUV DQG 7KLV WKHVLV IRUPV DV
VXFKDSUpFLVRIQHDUO\\HDUVRIUHVHDUFKRQ/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDDQGWKH
H[SHULHQFHVJDLQHGIURPLW
1H[WWRWKHVWXGHQWVWKDWKDYHSDUWLFLSDWHGLQP\UHVHDUFK,RZHP\WKDQNVWRDODUJHQXPEHU
RISHRSOHWKDWKDYHGLUHFWO\RULQGLUHFWO\FRQWULEXWHGE\GLUHFWLQJDQGKHOSLQJPHWRWKHGDWD
UHTXLUHGIRUWKLVUHVHDUFK,WZRXOGEHLPSRVVLEOHWROLVWDOOWKHLUQDPHVKHUH,ZRXOGKRZHYHU
OLNHWRWKDQNLQSDUWLFXODUWKRVHPRVWFORVHO\LQYROYHGZKLFKDUHILUVWRIDOOP\FROODERUDWRUV
RQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDFDVHVWXG\-HURHQ%RVERRPDQG.DUROL1MDXDVZHOODVP\VXSHUYLVRUV
DWWKDWVWDJH)UDQV(YHUDHUWV3LHW.HUNKRI+DQYDQ.DVWHUHQDQG/H[/HPPHQV7KHODWWHU
GHVHUYHVVSHFLDOWKDQNVDVDIDFLOLWDWRUDQGPRWLYDWRUIRUWKLVUHVHDUFK
:LWKUHJDUGWRWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDFDVHVWXG\IXUWKHUPRUH,ZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNILUVWRIDOO
7'2 LQ SDUWLFXODU )UDQV +HUPDQV DQG /H[ /HPPHQV IRU DUUDQJLQJ ILQDQFLQJ DQG VWXGHQW
VXSSRUW IRU WKH UHVHDUFK SURJUDP $OVR , ZRXOG OLNH WR H[SUHVV P\ JUDWLWXGH WR 81,'2 LQ
SDUWLFXODU=ROWDQ&]LVHUDQG&KLGL,EHDQGWKH&HQWUHGH5HFKHUFKH2FpDQRJUDSKLTXH&52
LQ,YRU\&RDVWLQSDUWLFXODU-DFTXHV$EpZLWKZKRP,ZRUNHGFORVHO\WRJHWKHU)XUWKHUPRUH,
ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN WKRVH WKDW SURYLGHG WKH QHFHVVDU\ VFLHQWLILF UHIOHFWLRQ DQG LQSXWV ZKLOH
ILQDOLVLQJ WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ )UDQV -DQVVHQ /HHQ +RUGLMN %DUW 'ULQNHQEXUJ .U]\V]WRI
3WDVLQNVLDQGLQSDUWLFXODU&DUROLHQ.URH]HZKRH[SHQGHGDORWRIWLPHRQRXUMRLQWUHVHDUFK
RQWKH(EULpODJRRQ/DVWEXWQRWOHDVW,ZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNWKRVHPRVWFORVHWRPHLQP\
SHUVRQDOOLIHP\IDPLO\DQGIDPLO\LQODZDQGP\IULHQGVIRUWKHLUVXSSRUWDQGXQGHUVWDQGLQJ
LQWKHH[WUHPHO\EXV\SHULRGRIZULWLQJRIWKLVWKHVLV,QSDUWLFXODU,ZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQN6DELQH
P\ZLIHIRUKHUPRUDOVXSSRUWIRUUHDGLQJWKURXJKP\WKHVLVDQGIRUWDNLQJDORWRIKRXVHKROG
ZRUNRXWRIP\KDQGVLQWKHVHODVWIHZPRQWKVRIZULWLQJP\GLVVHUWDWLRQ,GHGLFDWHWKLVWKHVLV
WRKHU
3HWHU6FKHUHQ
(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\WKH1HWKHUODQGV
0D\
LL
3UHIDFH$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
6XPPDU\
&RQWH[WDQGREMHFWLYHV
:RUOGZLGHZDWHUUHVRXUFHVDUHXQGHUWKHLQFUHDVLQJWKUHDWRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQGLUHFWO\
RULQGLUHFWO\FDXVHGE\KXPDQSUHVHQFHDQGDFWLYLWLHV,QWXUQWKLVGHWHULRUDWLQJVWDWHRIFUXFLDO
ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV VWURQJO\ LPSDFWV WKH VDPH KXPDQ H[LVWHQFH %HFDXVH RI WKH FRPSOH[
LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ DQWKURSRJHQLF DQG QDWXUDO IDFWRUV RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ SUREOHPV
ILQGLQJ VROXWLRQV IRU WKHVH SUREOHPV UHTXLUHV WKH LQWHJUDWLRQ RI NQRZOHGJH IURP YDULRXV
GLVFLSOLQHVLQFOXGLQJSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDOELRORJLFDOVRFLRHFRQRPLFDQGWHFKQRORJLFDODVSHFWV
,WLVWKLVDFNQRZOHGJHPHQWRILQWHUUHODWHGQDWXUDODQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFDVSHFWVWKDWOHDGVWRWKH
IXQGDPHQWDODQDO\WLFDOFRQWH[WSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVWKHFKDOOHQJHWREULGJHWKHJDSEHWZHHQ
GLVFLSOLQDU\ HQYLURQPHQWDO VFLHQFHV DQG DFWXDO JRYHUQDQFH WKURXJK DQ ,QWHJUDWHG
(QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW ,($ EDVHG UHVHDUFK DSSURDFK :LWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKLV WKHVLV
WKLVDSSURDFKLVUHIHUUHGWRDV,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW,:3$
7KHSDUWLFXODUIRFXVRIWKLVUHVHDUFKLVRQVLWXDWLRQVRIGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUQHVVDVLVRIWHQ
WKHFDVHLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV7ZRSUDFWLFDOVLWXDWLRQV/DNH9LFWRULDLQ(DVW$IULFDDQGWKH
*XOIRI*XLQHDLQ:HVW$IULFDZHUHXVHGDVVWXG\FDVHIRUWKH,:3$DSSURDFKGHYHORSHGDV
SDUWRIWKLVWKHVLV:LWKUHJDUGWRWKHVHWZRFDVHVWXGLHVWKHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVUHVHDUFKLV³WR
GHYHORSDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQFRQWURO
PHDVXUHV´$SDUWIURPWKLVFDVHVSHFLILFREMHFWLYHDQRYHUDOOREMHFWLYHRIWKLVUHVHDUFKLV³WR
GHYHORSDFRQFHSWXDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNIRU,:3$XQGHUGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRU
FRQGLWLRQV´
7KHRUHWLFDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUN
7KHRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNIRU,:3$SUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVLVSURYLGHGE\WKHFRQFHSWRI,($
WKH WKUHH IHDWXUHV RI ZKLFK DUH L D V\VWHPV DSSURDFK LL D SUREOHP VROYLQJ GHFLVLRQ
VXSSRUW RULHQWHG DVVHVVPHQW SURFHVV DQG LLL LQWHJUDWLRQ RI GLVFLSOLQHV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH
DFWXDO DVVHVVPHQW SURFHVV GLVWLQJXLVKHV WKUHH VWDJHV RI LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ L D SUREOHP
IRUPXODWLRQ VWDJH ZKLFK LQYROYHV WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI WKH REMHFWLYHV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW
LQFOXGLQJLWVERXQGDULHVDQGFRQVWUDLQWVLLDUHVHDUFKDQGDVVHVVPHQWVWDJHZKLFKLQYROYHV
EXLOGLQJDQGXVLQJPRGHOVGHYHORSLQJDOWHUQDWLYHUHVSRQVHVDQGIRUHFDVWLQJIXWXUHFRQGLWLRQV
DQG LLL DQ HYDOXDWLRQ DQG SUHVHQWDWLRQ VWDJH ZKLFK LQYROYHV FRPSDULVRQ RI DOWHUQDWLYH
UHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVYDOLGDWLRQRIGDWDDQGUHVXOWVDQGILQDOO\WKHUHSRUWLQJRIVXFKUHVXOWV
7KHWKHRUHWLFDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVLQFOXGHVIXUWKHUPRUHD
QXPEHU RI FRQFHSWV DQG PHWKRGV ZKLFK WRJHWKHU IRUP WKH WRROV WKDW DUH DSSOLHG LQ WKH
DVVHVVPHQWSURFHVV
6XPPDU\
LLL
x 7KH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVWKHRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNIRUDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHFDXVHVDQG
HIIHFWVRIDQGUHVSRQVHVWRWKHZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHP
x $ VHW RI PHWKRGRORJLHV IRU DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH YDULRXV
HOHPHQWV RI WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN 7KH\ FRQFHUQ SULPDULO\ WKH 5DSLG $VVHVVPHQW
PHWKRG IRU TXDQWLWDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH µGULYLQJ IRUFHV¶ ± µSUHVVXUHV¶ UHODWLRQ
VXEVWDQFHEDODQFHPRGHOOLQJIRUWKHTXDQWLWDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHµSUHVVXUH¶±µVWDWH¶
UHODWLRQDQGFRQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUNVIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIµVWDWH¶±µLPSDFW¶UHODWLRQV
DVZHOODVIRUWKHGHILQLWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV
x 0HWKRGV IRU XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV ,Q YLHZ RI WKH LQKHUHQW XQFHUWDLQWLHV UHODWHG WR
ODUJHVFDOH ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW LQ SDUWLFXODU XQGHU GDWD SRRU VLWXDWLRQV D
VHOHFWLRQRIPHWKRGVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLVSURSRVHGDQGGLVFXVVHG
5HVXOWVRIWKHFDVHVWXGLHV
7KHEHIRUHGHVFULEHG,:3$IUDPHZRUNZDVDSSOLHGWRWKHFDVHVRI/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOI
RI*XLQHD2QWKHEDVLVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOFDXVHHIIHFWFKDLQRIHDFK
FDVHZDVDVVHVVHGWKHPDLQIHDWXUHVRIZKLFKDUHVLPLODU
x 7KHSULQFLSDODQWKURSRJHQLFGULYLQJIRUFHVDUHUDSLGSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLQGXVWULDODQG
DJULFXOWXUDOGHYHORSPHQWIRUHVWGHVWUXFWLRQDQGELRPDVVEXUQLQJUHLQIRUFHGE\QDWXUDO
FKDQJHV VXFK DV LQ PHWHRURORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV DQG LQ HFRV\VWHP FRPSRVLWLRQ HJ
DTXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQDQGILVKVSHFLHV
x 7KHPDLQHQYLURQPHQWDOSUHVVXUHVUHVXOWLQJIURPWKHVHGULYLQJIRUFHVDUHSRLQWVRXUFH
SROOXWLRQ ORDGV GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO ODQG UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ RI QXWULHQWV DQG
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ RI QXWULHQWV VWUHQJWKHQHG E\ SUHVVXUHV IURP QDWXUDO GULYLQJ
IRUFHV
x 8QGHUVXFKSUHVVXUHVWKHVWDWHRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPLVDIIHFWHGWKURXJKFKDQJHVLQWKH
HFRV\VWHPLQFOXGLQJLQFUHDVHGQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDEXQGDQWDOJDOJURZWKUHVXOWLQJ
IURPHXWURSKLFDWLRQGHR[\JHQDWLRQK\GURJHQVXOSKLGHIRUPDWLRQDQGILVKPRUWDOLW\
x 7KHHYHQWXDOLPSDFWVPDQLIHVWLQWHUPVRIGHFUHDVHGILVKUHVRXUFHVORVVRIDPHQLWLHV
WRXULVPUHFUHDWLRQDOYDOXHDQGELRGLYHUVLW\DVZHOODVGHFUHDVHGXVDELOLW\RIZDWHUIRU
GRPHVWLFLQGXVWULDODQGDJULFXOWXUDOXVHDQGWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIZDWHUERUQHDQGLQVHFW
ERUQHGLVHDVHV
'LIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH FDXVHHIIHFW FKDLQV RI WKH WZR UHVHDUFK FDVHV UHODWH PDLQO\ WR WKH
KLJKHU OHYHO RI XUEDQLVDWLRQ DQG LQGXVWULDO GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD $V D
FRQVHTXHQFHRUJDQLFSROOXWLRQORDGVIURPXUEDQVRXUFHVDUHUHODWLYHO\PRUHLPSRUWDQWWKDQLQ
WKH FDVH RI /DNH 9LFWRULD ZKHUH ODQG UXQRII DQG DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ DUH WKH SULPDU\
VRXUFHVRIQXWULHQWVWKDWFDXVHHXWURSKLFDWLRQRIWKHODNH
7KLVIUDPHZRUNGLVWLQJXLVKHVµ'ULYLQJIRUFHV¶µ3UHVVXUHV¶µ6WDWH¶µ,PSDFW¶DQGµ5HVSRQVHV¶DVVHSDUDWHHOHPHQWVRIDQ
HQYLURQPHQWDOFDXVHHIIHFWFKDLQ
LY
6XPPDU\
2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKLV FDXVHHIIHFW FKDLQ WKH NH\ IRUFLQJ IXQFWLRQV Š WKURXJK ZKLFK ZDWHU
SROOXWLRQ PD\ EH PDQDJHG Š ZKHUH GHWHUPLQHG UHVXOWLQJ LQ YDULRXV DOWHUQDWLYH UHVSRQVH
RSWLRQV7KHVHRSWLRQVZHUHVXEVHTXHQWO\FRPSDUHGRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHHVWDEOLVKHGTXDQWLWDWLYH
PRGHO HTXDWLRQV DQG TXDOLWDWLYH LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV ZLWKLQ WKH HVWDEOLVKHG '36,5 IUDPHZRUN
)LQDOO\WKHUHVXOWVRIWKH,:3$DQGUHFRPPHQGHGUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGZLWKLQ
WKHOLJKWRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDDQGUHVXOWV,QERWKFDVHVWKHPRVWHIIHFWLYHVROXWLRQIRUWKH
SROOXWLRQ SUREOHP UHODWHV WR D UHGXFWLRQ RI QRQSRLQW VRXUFH SROOXWLRQ E\ PHDQV RI FRQWURO
PHDVXUHV IRU GHPRJUDSKLF GHYHORSPHQWV VXVWDLQDEOH ODQGXVH PRUH HIILFLHQW DJULFXOWXUDO
PHWKRGVDOWHUQDWLYHVRXUFHVRIKRXVHKROGELRPDVVDQGWKHSUHVHUYDWLRQDQGUHKDELOLWDWLRQRI
IRUHVWV DQG VKRUHOLQH YHJHWDWLRQ 7KH DEDWHPHQW RI XUEDQ SRLQWVRXUFH SROOXWLRQ KDV LQERWK
FDVHVRQO\ORFDOL]HGHIIHFWV
&RQFOXVLRQV
7KHDSSURDFKIROORZHGKDVUHVXOWHGLQLQVLJKWLQWKHFDXVHVDQGHIIHFWVRIWKHZDWHUSROOXWLRQ
SUREOHPV RI /DNH 9LFWRULD DQG WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD 7KH HQYLURQPHQWDO FDXVHHIIHFW FKDLQ
HVWDEOLVKHGRQWKHEDVLVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNKDVHQDEOHGWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQ
RI SRVVLEOH UHVSRQVH PHDVXUHV ,W PD\ WKHUHIRUH EH FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH FDVH VWXG\ OHYHO
REMHFWLYHGHILQHGIRUWKLVUHVHDUFKŠWRGHYHORSDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQ
DQGHYDOXDWLRQRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQFRQWUROPHDVXUHVŠKDVEHHQDFKLHYHG
7KHFDVHVVWXGLHVKDYHOHDGWRDQXPEHURILPSRUWDQWOHVVRQVOHDUQWZLWKUHJDUGWRLWKHQDWXUH
RIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQFDXVHHIIHFWFKDLQLQFDVHVVXFKDV/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOI
RI*XLQHDLLWKHJHQHUDODVVHVVPHQWDSSURDFKLLLPRGHOFRPSOH[LW\DQGLYXQFHUWDLQWLHV
LQWKHDVVHVVPHQW0RUHRYHUWKHVXFFHVVRIWKHVHFDVHVKDVSURYLGHGFRQILGHQFHLQWKHJHQHUDO
DSSOLFDELOLW\DQGHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKHSURSRVHG,:3$DSSURDFKIRUWKLVW\SHRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQ
SUREOHPV +RZHYHU WKHUH DUH DOVR FHUWDLQ ZHDNQHVVHV DQG UHVWULFWLRQV LQ LWV DSSOLFDELOLW\ LQ
SDUWLFXODUDVLWFRQFHUQVLXQFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWRSDUWLFXODUHOHPHQWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWLL
OLPLWDWLRQV LQ VFRSH LLL WKH PLQLPXP DPRXQW RI GDWD UHTXLUHG IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW ZKLFK
GHWHUPLQHV WKH GHSWK DQG WKH VSDWLDO UHVROXWLRQ RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW DQG LY WKH IDFW WKDW WKH
DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH ,:3$ IUDPHZRUN UHTXLUHV FRQVLGHUDEOH H[SHULHQFH DQG NQRZOHGJH RI WKH
DVVHVVRUZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUN
1HYHUWKHOHVVLWLVFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHHVWDEOLVKHG,:3$IUDPHZRUNKDVPDQ\PHULWVZKLFKLQ
LWVDSSOLFDWLRQWRWKHWZRUHVHDUFKFDVHVKDVDOORZHGIRUFRQFOXVLRQVWREHGUDZQZKLFKZRXOG
QRWKDYHEHHQSRVVLEOHWKURXJKDOHVVV\VWHPDWLFDQGFRPSUHKHQVLYHDVVHVVPHQW$VVXFKWKH
IUDPHZRUNKDVSURYHQWREHXVHIXODQGUREXVWXQGHUWKHGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUVLWXDWLRQVRI
WKHWZRUHVHDUFKFDVHV
6XPPDU\
Y
6DPHQYDWWLQJ
&RQWH[WHQGRHOVWHOOLQJHQ
:HUHOGZLMGVWDDQZDWHUV\VWHPHQRQGHUGHWRHQHPHQGHGUXNYDQPLOLHXYHURQWUHLQLJLQJGLUHFW
RILQGLUHFWYRRUWNRPHQGXLWPHQVHOLMNHDDQZH]LJKHLGHQDFWLYLWHLWHQ2SKDDUEHXUWEHGUHLJW
GH]H YHUVOHFKWHUHQGH WRHVWDQG YDQ FUXFLDOH ZDWHUV\VWHPHQ KHW]HOIGH PHQVHOLMNH EHVWDDQ
*H]LHQ GH FRPSOH[H ZLVVHOZHUNLQJ WXVVHQ GH PHQVHOLMNH HQ QDWXXUOLMNH DVSHFWHQ YDQ
ZDWHUYHURQWUHLQLJLQJVSUREOHPHQYHUJWKHWYLQGHQYDQRSORVVLQJHQYRRUGHUJHOLMNSUREOHPHQ
HHQ LQWHJUDWLH YDQ NHQQLV YRRUWNRPHQG XLW YHUVFKLOOHQGH YDNJHELHGHQ ZDDURQGHU I\VLVFK
FKHPLVFKH ELRORJLVFKH VRFLDDOHFRQRPLVFKH HQ WHFKQRORJLVFKH GLVFLSOLQHV +HW LV GH]H
RQGHUNHQQLQJ YDQ JHUHODWHHUGH QDWXXUOLMNH HQ VRFLDDOHFRQRPLVFKH DVSHFWHQ GLH OHLGW WRW GH
IXQGDPHQWHOH DQDO\WLVFKH FRQWH[W YDQ GLW SURHIVFKULIW GH XLWGDJLQJ RP KHW JDW WXVVHQ
GLVFLSOLQDLUH PLOLHXZHWHQVFKDSSHQ HQ EHOHLGVYRHULQJ WH YXOOHQ GRRU PLGGHO YDQ ,QWHJUDDO
0LOLHXRQGHU]RHN ,02 %LQQHQ GH FRQWH[W YDQ GLW SURHIVFKULIW ZRUGW DDQ GH]H DDQSDN
JHUHIHUHHUGDOV,QWHJUDDO:DWHUYHURQWUHLQLJLQJVRQGHU]RHN,:92
'HVSHFLILHNHDDQGDFKWYDQGLWSURHIVFKULIWJDDWXLWQDDUVLWXDWLHVZDDULQHUZHLQLJJHJHYHQVHQ
PLGGHOHQ YRRU RQGHU]RHN EHVFKLNEDDU ]LMQ ]RDOV YDDN KHW JHYDO LQ RQWZLNNHOLQJVODQGHQ
7HQHLQGHGH,:92DDQSDN]RDOVRQWZLNNHOGELQQHQKHWNDGHUYDQGLWSURHIVFKULIWWHWRHWVHQ
LVGH]HWRHJHSDVWRSWZHHYRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHVKHW9LFWRULDPHHULQ2RVW$IULNDHQGH*ROIYDQ
*XLQHH LQ :HVW $IULND 0HW EHWUHNNLQJ WRW GH]H YRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHV LV KHW GRHO YDQ GLW
SURHIVFKULIW³KHWRQWZLNNHOHQYDQHHQEHOHLGVRQGHUVWHXQHQGLQVWUXPHQWYRRUGHLGHQWLILFDWLHHQ
DQDO\VH YDQ EHKHHUVPDDWUHJHOHQ YRRU ZDWHUYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ´ 'DDUQDDVW LV KHW DOJHPHQH GRHO
YDQGLWRQGHU]RHN³KHWRQWZLNNHOHQYDQHHQFRQFHSWXHHOHQPHWKRGRORJLVFKRQGHU]RHNVNDGHU
YRRU,:92LQVLWXDWLHVZDDULQJHJHYHQVHQPLGGHOHQVFKDDUV]LMQ´
7KHRUHWLVFKHQPHWKRGRORJLVFKRQGHU]RHNVNDGHU
+HWDOJHPHQHRQGHU]RHNVNDGHUYRRU,:92]RDOVLQGLWSURHIVFKULIWRQWZLNNHOGLVJHEDVHHUG
RS KHW FRQFHSW YDQ ,02 'H GULH EDVLVNHQPHUNHQ YDQ GLW FRQFHSW ]LMQ L HHQ
V\VWHHPEHQDGHULQJ LL HHQ RSORVVLQJVJHULFKW EHOHLGVRQGHUVWHXQHQG RQGHU]RHNVSURFHV HQ
LLLLQWHJUDWLHYDQGLVFLSOLQHV,QKHWRQGHU]RHNVSURFHVZRUGHQYHUGHUGULHLPSOHPHQWDWLHVWDGLD
RQGHUVFKHLGHQLHHQSUREOHHPGHILQLWLHIDVHZDDULQGHRQGHU]RHNVGRHOHQHQGHJUHQ]HQHQ
EHSHUNLQJHQ YDQ KHW RQGHU]RHN ZRUGHQ DDQJHJHYHQ LL HHQ RQGHU]RHNVIDVH ZDDULQ
PRGHORQWZLNNHOLQJHQWRHSDVVLQJSODDWVYLQGHQDOWHUQDWLHYHRSORVVLQJHQJHGHILQLHHUGZRUGHQ
HQWRHNRPVWLJHRQWZLNNHOLQJHQYRRUVSHOGZRUGHQHQLLLHHQHYDOXDWLHHQSUHVHQWDWLHIDVH
ZDDULQ DOWHUQDWLHYH EHKHHUVPDDWUHJHOHQ YHUJHOHNHQ ZRUGHQ HHQ YDOLGDWLH YDQ JHJHYHQV HQ
UHVXOWDWHQSODDWVYLQGWHQZDDULQXLWHLQGHOLMNGHUHVXOWDWHQJHUDSSRUWHHUGZRUGHQ
+HW WKHRUHWLVFK HQ PHWKRGRORJLVFK RQGHU]RHNVNDGHU ]RDOV LQ GLW SURHIVFKULIW EHVFKUHYHQ
RPYDWYHUGHUHHQDDQWDOVSHFLILHNHFRQFHSWHQHQPHWKRGHVGLHVDPHQGHLQVWUXPHQWHQYRUPHQ
GLHLQKHW,:92ZRUGHQWRHJHSDVW
YL
6DPHQYDWWLQJ
x +HW'36,5NDGHUDOVKHWDOOHVRPYDWWHQGHNDGHUYRRURQGHU]RHNQDDUGHRRU]DNHQHQ
HIIHFWHQYDQDOVPHGHGHEHKHHUVPDDWUHJHOHQWHJHQKHWZDWHUYHURQWUHLQLJLQJVSUREOHHP
x (HQ VHULH VSHFLILHNH PHWKRGHQ YRRU KHW RQGHU]RHNHQ YDQ GH UHODWLHV WXVVHQ GH
YHUVFKLOOHQGH HOHPHQWHQ YDQ KHW '36,5 NDGHU 'H]H EHWUHIIHQ PHW QDPH GH µ5DSLG
$VVHVVPHQW¶ PHWKRGH YRRU NZDQWLWDWLHI RQGHU]RHN YDQ GH UHODWLH µEDVLVRRU]DNHQ¶ ±
µPLOLHXGUXN¶ KHW PRGHOOHUHQ YDQ PDVVDEDODQVHQ YRRU NZDQWLWDWLHYH DQDO\VH YDQ GH
µPLOLHXGUXN¶±µWRHVWDQG¶UHODWLHHQFRQFHSWXHOHKDQGOHLGLQJHQYRRURQGHU]RHNQDDUGH
µWRHVWDQG¶±µHIIHFW¶UHODWLHHQYRRUGHGHILQLWLHHQHYDOXDWLHYDQEHKHHUVPDDWUHJHOHQ
x 0HWKRGHV YRRU RQ]HNHUKHLGVDQDO\VH 0HW KHW RRJ RS GH RQ]HNHUKHGHQ JHOHJHQ LQ
JURRWVFKDOLJ ZDWHUYHURQWUHLQLJLQJVRQGHU]RHN PHW QDPH LQ JHJHYHQVDUPH VLWXDWLHV
ZRUGHQ HU LQ GLW SURHIVFKULIW HHQ VHOHFWLH YDQ PHWKRGHQ YRRU RQ]HNHUKHLGVDQDO\VH
YRRUJHVWHOGHQEHVSURNHQ
5HVXOWDWHQYDQKHWRQGHU]RHNDDQGHYRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHV
+HWKLHUYRRUEHVFKUHYHQ,:92RQGHU]RHNVNDGHULVWRHJHSDVWRSKHW9LFWRULDPHHUHQGH*ROI
YDQ *XLQHH $DQ GH KDQG YDQ KHW '36,5 NDGHU LV GH PLOLHXHIIHFWNHWHQ YDQ HON YDQ GH]H
YRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHV LQ NDDUW JHEUDFKW 2S KRRIGOLMQHQ EOLMNHQ GH]H NHWHQV JRHG RYHUHHQ WH
NRPHQPHWGHYROJHQGHDOJHPHQHNHQPHUNHQ
x 'HEHODQJULMNVWHDQWURSRJHQHEDVLVRRU]DNHQ]LMQVQHOOHEHYRONLQJVJURHLLQGXVWULsOHHQ
ODQGERXZRQWZLNNHOLQJYHUQLHWLJLQJYDQERVVHQHQKHWYHUEUDQGHQYDQELRPDVVD'H]H
HIIHFWHQZRUGHQYHUVWHUNWGRRUQDWXXUOLMNIDFWRUHQ]RDOVYHUDQGHULQJHQLQPHWHRURORJLH
HQLQHFRV\VWHHPVDPHQVWHOOLQJRDDTXDWLVFKHIORUDHQYLVVRRUWHQ
x 'H EHODQJULMNVWH PLOLHXGUXNNHQ YRRUWNRPHQG XLW GH]H EDVLVRRU]DNHQ ]LMQ OR]LQJHQ
YDQSXQWEURQQHQKXLVKRXGHOLMNHQLQGXVWULHHODIYDOZDWHUQXWULsQWHQDIYORHLLQJYDQDI
ODQGHQGHDWPRVIHULVFKHGHSRVLWLHYDQQXWULsQWHQYHUVWHUNWGRRUPLOLHXGUXNDINRPVWLJ
YDQQDWXXUOLMNHEDVLVRRU]DNHQ
x 2QGHULQYORHGYDQGH]HPLOLHXGUXNZRUGWGHWRHVWDQGYDQKHWZDWHUV\VWHHPDDQJHWDVW
GRRU YHUDQGHULQJHQ LQ KHW HFRV\VWHHP ZDDURQGHU YHUKRRJGH FRQFHQWUDWLHV YDQ
QXWULsQWHQ RYHUYORHGLJH DOJHQJURHL DOV JHYROJ YDQ HXWURILsULQJ GHR[\JHQDWLH +6
YRUPLQJHQYLVVWHUIWH
x 'H XLWHLQGHOLMN HIIHFWHQ ]LMQ HHQ DIQDPH YDQ GH YLVVWDQG DDQWDVWLQJ YDQ GH
OHHINZDOLWHLW HQ YDQ WRHULVWLVFKHUHFUHDWLHYH HQ ELRGLYHUVLWHLWZDDUGHV DOVPHGH
YHUPLQGHUGH EUXLNEDDUKHLG YRRU KXLVKRXGHOLMNH LQGXVWULsOH HQ ODQGERXZ
ZDWHUYRRU]LHQLQJHQHHQWRHQDPHYDQZDWHUHQLQVHFWJHUHODWHHUGH]LHNWHV
'HEHODQJULMNVWHYHUVFKLOOHQWXVVHQGHPLOLHXHIIHFWNHWHQVYDQGHWZHHYRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHV]LMQ
KHWJHYROJYDQKHWKRJHUVWHGHOLMNHQLQGXVWULHHORQWZLNNHOLQJVQLYHDXYDQGH*ROIYDQ*XLQHH
UHJLR $OV JHYROJ KLHUYDQ LV GH RUJDQLVFKH YHURQWUHLQLJLQJ DINRPVWLJ YDQ KXLVKRXGHOLMN HQ
LQGXVWULHHO DIYDOZDWHU UHODWLHI JURWHU GDQ LQ GH UHJLR YDQ KHW 9LFWRULDPHHU ZDDU
QXWULsQWHQDIYORHLLQJ YDQ ODQG HQ DWPRVIHULVFKH GHSRVLWLH YDQ QXWULsQWHQ GH EHODQJULMNVWH
EURQQHQYDQHXWURILsULQJ]LMQ
+HW'36,5IUDPHZRUNRQGHUVFKHLGWµEDVLVRRU]DNHQ¶µPLOHXGUXN¶µWRHVWDQG¶µHIIHFWHQ¶HQµEHKHHUVPDDWUHJHOHQ¶DOVGH
DI]RQGHUOLMNHHOHPHQWHQYDQGHPLOLHXHIIHFWNHWHQ
6DPHQYDWWLQJ
YLL
2S EDVLV YDQ GH PLOLHXHIIHFWNHWHQV ]LMQ GH EHODQJULMNVWH EHKHHUVIXQFWLHV Š ZDDUGRRU GH
ZDWHUYHURQWUHLQLJLQJEHwQYORHGNDQZRUGHQŠEHSDDOGZDWKHHIWJHUHVXOWHHUGLQYHUVFKLOOHQGH
EHKHHUVRSWLHV 'H]H RSWLHV ]LMQ YHUYROJHQV YHUJHOHNHQ PHW EHKXOS YDQ GH RQWZLNNHOGH
NZDQWLWDWLHYHPRGHOYHUJHOLMNLQJHQHQNZDOLWDWLHYHUHODWLHVELQQHQKHW'36,5NDGHU$OVODDWVWH
LVGHLQYORHGYDQRQ]HNHUKHGHQRSGHJHJHYHQVHQUHVXOWDWHQYDQKHW,:92HQGHDDQEHYROHQ
EHKHHUVRSWLHVJHDQDO\VHHUG'HUHVXOWDWHQODWHQ]LHQGDWLQEHLGHYRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHVGHPHHVW
HIIHFWLHYHEHKHHUVPDDWUHJHOHQJHULFKW]LMQRSKHWYHUPLQGHUHQYDQYHURQWUHLQLJLQJDINRPVWLJ
YDQGLIIXVHEURQQHQGRRUPLGGHOYDQPDDWUHJHOHQJHULFKWRSGHEHKHHUVLQJYDQGHPRJUDILVFKH
RQWZLNNHOLQJHQ GXXU]DPH HQ PHHU HIILFLsQWH ODQGERXZPHWKRGHV DOWHUQDWLHYH
EUDQGVWRIEURQQHQHQKHWEHKRXGHQKHUVWHOYDQERVVHQHQRHYHUYHJHWDWLH+HWEHVWULMGHQYDQ
VWHGHOLMNHSXQWEURQYHURQWUHLQLJLQJKHHIWLQEHLGHJHYDOOHQVOHFKWVORNDDOYHUEHWHUHQGHHIIHFWHQ
&RQFOXVLHV
'H JHYROJGH DDQSDN KHHIW JHOHLG WRW LQ]LFKW LQ GH RRU]DNHQ HQ JHYROJHQ YDQ KHW
ZDWHUYXLOLQJVSUREOHHP LQ KHW 9LFWRULDPHHU HQ GH *ROI YDQ *XLQHH $DQ GH KDQG YDQ GH
PLOLHXHIIHFWNHWHQV RSJHVWHOG RS EDVLV YDQ KHW '36,5 NDGHU LV KHW PRJHOLMN JHZHHVW RP
DOWHUQDWLHYH EHKHHUVPDDWUHJHOHQ WH LGHQWLILFHUHQ HQ DQDO\VHUHQ +HW PDJ GHUKDOYH
JHFRQFOXGHHUG ZRUGHQ GDW KHW GRHO PHW EHWUHNNLQJ WRW GH]H YRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHV Š KHW
RQWZLNNHOHQYDQHHQEHVOXLWYRUPLQJVRQGHUVWHXQHQGLQVWUXPHQWYRRUGHLGHQWLILFDWLHHQDQDO\VH
YDQEHKHHUVPDDWUHJHOHQYRRUZDWHUYHURQWUHLQLJLQJŠEHUHLNWLV
2S EDVLV YDQ KHW RQGHU]RHN DDQ GH YRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHV ]LMQ HU YHUGHU HHQ DDQWDO EHODQJULMNH
OHVVHQ JHOHHUG PHW EHWUHNNLQJ WRW L GH NDUDNWHULVWLHNH DVSHFWHQ YDQ PLOLHXHIIHFWNHWHQV LQ
VLWXDWLHV]RDOVKHW9LFWRULDPHHUHQGH*ROIYDQ*XLQHHLLGHDOJHPHQHRQGHU]RHNVDDQSDN
LLL GH FRPSOH[LWHLW YDQ PRGHOOHQ HQ LY RQ]HNHUKHGHQ LQ KHW RQGHU]RHN 9HUGHU JHHIW KHW
VXFFHV YDQ KHW RQGHU]RHN DDQ GH WZHH YRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHV YHUWURXZHQ LQ GH JHQHULHNH
WRHSDVEDDUKHLG HQ HIIHFWLYLWHLW YDQ KHW RQWZLNNHOGH ,:92 RQGHU]RHNVNDGHU YRRU GLW W\SH
ZDWHUYHURQWUHLQLJLQJVSUREOHPDWLHN (U ]LMQ HFKWHU RRN HHQ DDQWDO ]ZDNNH SXQWHQ HQ
EHSHUNLQJHQ PHW EHWUHNNLQJ WRW GHUJHOLMNH WRHSDVVLQJHQ PHW QDPH EHWUHIIHQGH L
RQ]HNHUKHGHQ JHUHODWHHUG DDQ EHSDDOGH DVSHFWHQ YDQ KHW RQGHU]RHN LL EHSHUNLQJHQ PHW
EHWUHNNLQJ WRW GH UHLNZLMGWH YDQ KHW RQGHU]RHN LLL GH PLQLPXP KRHYHHOKHLG JHJHYHQV GLH
QRGLJLVYRRUKHWRQGHU]RHNGLHKHWGHWDLOQLYHDXHQKHWUXLPWHOLMNRSORVVLQJVYHUPRJHQYDQGH
UHVXOWDWHQEHSDDOGHQLYKHWIHLWGDWWRHSDVVLQJYDQKHW,:92RQGHU]RHNVNDGHUDDQ]LHQOLMNH
HUYDULQJHQNHQQLVYDQGHRQGHU]RHNHUPHWEHWUHNNLQJWRWGHWRHJHSDVWHPHWKRGHVYHUHLVW
1LHWWHPLQ PDJ HU JHFRQFOXGHHUG ZRUGHQ GDW KHW RQWZLNNHOGH ,:92 RQGHU]RHNVNDGHU YHHO
VWHUNH NDQWHQ NHQW GLH LQ KHW JHYDO YDQ GH WZHH YRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHV KHEEHQ JHOHLG WRW
FRQFOXVLHV HQ UHVXOWDWHQ GLH ELM HHQ PLQGHU V\VWHPDWLVFKH HQ YROOHGLJH DDQSDN QLHW EHUHLNW
]RXGHQ ]LMQ +HW RQGHU]RHNVNDGHU KHHIW GXV EHZH]HQ QXWWLJ HQ UREXXVW WH ]LMQ LQ GH WZHH
YRRUEHHOGVLWXDWLHVZDDULQJHJHYHQVHQPLGGHOHQVFKDDUV]LMQ
YLLL
6DPHQYDWWLQJ
7DEOHRIFRQWHQWV
35()$&($&.12:/('*(0(176
,
6800$5<
,,,
6$0(19$77,1*
9,
7$%/(2)&217(176
,;
,1752'8&7,21
&RQWH[W
5HVHDUFKREMHFWLYHV
6WUXFWXUHRIWKHWKHVLV
5HIHUHQFHV
7+(25(7,&$/$1'0(7+2'2/2*,&$/)5$0(:25.
,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW
:KDWLV,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW"
,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWSURFHVVDQGWRROV ,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWDVDFRQFHSWIRU,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHV VPHQW
6FLHQWLILFUHOHYDQFHRI,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW 7KH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
6WHS,'ULYLQJ)RUFHV3UHVVXUH
6WHS,,3UHVVXUH±6WDWHRIWKH(QYLURQPHQW
6WHS,,,6WDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQW,PSDFW
6WHS,9'HILQLWLRQRIUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV *HQHUDO
7KHUHVHDUFKFDVHV
:KDWLVWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN"
$SSOLFDWLRQRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNIRUZDWHUSROOXWLRQDVVHVVPHQW ,QGLFDWRUVDQGSDUDPHWHUVIRUWKH'36,5FRPSRQHQWV 7KHLVVXH
(YDOXDWLRQRISRVVLEOHPHWKRGVDQGDSSURDFKHV (ODERUDWLRQRIWKHDSSOLHGDSSURDFK
7KHLVVXH
(YDOXDWLRQRISRVVLEOHPHWKRGVDQGDSSURDFKHV
'HVFULSWLRQRIWKHDSSOLHGDSSURDFK
7KHLVVXH
$IUDPHZRUNIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIVWDWHLPSDFWUHODWLRQV
*HQHUDO
$IUDPHZRUNIRUWKHGHILQLWLRQRIUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV 7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
L[
8QFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV
5HFDSLWXODWLRQDQGILQDOREVHUYDWLRQV
5HIHUHQFHV
32//87,21$66(660(172)/$.(9,&725,$
,QWURGXFWLRQWRWKHFDVH
$VVHVVPHQWRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQLQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDRI/DNH9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD (VWLPDWLRQRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQLQ/DNH9LFWRULD$SSOLFDWLRQDQGHODERUDWLRQRIWKH5DSLG
$VVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\
*HQHUDO
5HFDSLWXODWLRQRIWKHHVWDEOLVKHG,:3$IUDPHZRUN 5HPDUNVZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH,:3$IUDPHZRUNDVDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRRO 3UREOHPGHILQLWLRQ
2EMHFWLYHVRIDQDO\VLV
%RXQGDULHVDQGFRQVWUDLQWV
5HDGHUVJXLGH
,QWURGXFWLRQ
,QGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQ
'RPHVWLFSROOXWLRQ
$JULFXOWXUDOSROOXWLRQ
&RQFOXVLRQ
5HFRPPHQGDWLRQV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
0HWKRGRORJ\
5HVXOWV
'LVFXVVLRQ
$VVHVVPHQWRISROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDQGVRFLR HFRQRPLFFLUFXPVWDQFHVUHODWHGWRWKH
HXWURSKLFDWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD
)LQDODQDO\VLVRIUHVXOWV
&DXVHVDQGHIIHFWVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQ $SHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHIXWXUHVWDWHRISROOXWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD ,GHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV $QDO\VLVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDDQGUHVXOWV 6XPPDU\RIFRQFOXVLRQVDQGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV 5HIHUHQFHV
32//87,21$66(660(172)7+(*8/)2)*8,1($
,QWURGXFWLRQWRWKHFDVH
[
7KHLVVXH
2YHUYLHZRIW\SHVDQGVRXUFHVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHV
2YHUYLHZRIPHWKRGVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV 8QFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLQWKLVWKHVLV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
0HWKRGRORJ\
5HVXOWV
'LVFXVVLRQ
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQYDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUV
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHIRUPRIWKHDSSOLHGDVVHVVPHQWWRROVPRGHOV 6XPPDU\RIFRQFOXVLRQVRQXQFHUWDLQW\LQGDWDDQGUHVXOWV 7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
3UREOHPGHILQLWLRQ
2EMHFWLYHVRIDQDO\VLV
%RXQGDULHVDQGFRQVWUDLQWV
5HDGHUVJXLGH
(QYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD $UHJLRQDODSSURDFK
,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH(EULp/DJRRQ,YRU\&RDVW:HVW$IULFD ,QWURGXFWLRQ
0HWKRGRORJ\
5HVXOWV
'LVFXVVLRQ
&RQFOXVLRQV
)LQDO$QDO\VLVRIUHVXOWV
$QDO\VLVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDDQGUHVXOWV
6XPPDU\RIFRQFOXVLRQVDQGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
5HIHUHQFHV
),1$/$1$/<6,6$1'',6&866,21
)LQDODQDO\VLVRIWKHUHVHDUFKFDVHV
)LQDODQDO\VLVRIWKHFRQFHSWXDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUN 5HIHUHQFHV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
0HWKRGV
5HVXOWV
&RQFOXVLRQ
&DXVHVDQGHIIHFWVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQ $SHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHIXWXUHVWDWHRISROOXWLRQRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD ,GHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV 8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQYDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUV
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHIRUPRIWKHDSSOLHGDVVHVVPHQWWRROVPRGHOV
6XPPDU\RIFRQFOXVLRQVRQXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDDQGUHVXOWV $FFRPSOLVKPHQWRIWKHFDVHVWXG\OHYHOREMHFWLYH /HVVRQVOHDUQW
$FFRPSOLVKPHQWRIWKHRYHUDOOUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYH 6WUHQJWKVDQGZHDNQHVVHVRIWKH,:3$IUDPHZRUN 5HFRPPHQGDWLRQVIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFK
$11(;
9$/,'$7,212),1'8675,$/32//87,21,17(16,7,(6
$11(;
1,752*(1352&(66(6,1$48$7,&(&26<67(06
/,672)$%%5(9,$7,216
/,672)6<0%2/6
&855,&8/809,7$(
38%/,&$7,216
7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
[L
&KDSWHU
,QWURGXFWLRQ
5HVHDUFKGHILQLWLRQ
:RUOGZLGH ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV DUH XQGHU WKH LQFUHDVLQJ WKUHDW RI HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ
GLUHFWO\RULQGLUHFWO\FDXVHGE\KXPDQSUHVHQFHDQGDFWLYLWLHV,QWXUQWKLVGHWHULRUDWLQJVWDWH
RI FUXFLDO ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV VWURQJO\ LPSDFWV WKH VDPH KXPDQ H[LVWHQFH ,W LV WKLV
DFNQRZOHGJHPHQWRILQWHUUHODWHGSURFHVVHVRIQDWXUDODQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFV\VWHPVWKDWOHDGV
WRWKHIXQGDPHQWDODQDO\WLFDOFRQWH[WSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLV7KHFKDOOHQJHWREULGJHWKHJDS
EHWZHHQIXQGDPHQWDOGLVFLSOLQDU\HQYLURQPHQWDOVFLHQFHVDQGDFWXDOJRYHUQDQFHWKURXJKDQ
,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWDSSURDFK
7KLVLQWURGXFWRU\FKDSWHUSUHVHQWVWKHFRQWH[WRIWKLVUHVHDUFK,WSURYLGHVDQRYHUYLHZRIWKH
SUREOHPVDQGFKDOOHQJHVUHODWHGWRHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQPDQDJHPHQWRIZDWHUUHVRXUFHVLQ
JHQHUDODQGPRUHVSHFLILFDOO\LQVLWXDWLRQVRIGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUQHVV7KHVHFKDOOHQJHV
IRUPWKHEDVLVIRUWKHGHILQLWLRQRIVSHFLILFUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYHVDQGWKHRXWOLQHRIWKLVWKHVLV
&RQWH[W
*HQHUDO
$V FRQILUPHG E\ WKH UHFHQW &RQIHUHQFH RQ 6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW LQ -RKDQQHVEXUJ
(DUWKVXPPLWWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIFOHDQZDWHULVRQHRIWKHPRVWFUXFLDOIDFWRUVLQKXPDQ
GHYHORSPHQW:HGHSHQGRQDTXDWLFUHVRXUFHVIRUWKHSURYLVLRQRIGULQNLQJZDWHULUULJDWLRQ
ZDWHU IRU DJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLWLHV DQG SURFHVV ZDWHU IRU LQGXVWULDO DFWLYLWLHV 6XUIDFH ZDWHU
UHVRXUFHVFRQVWLWXWHPRUHRYHUWKHEDVLVRIH[LVWHQFHRIDODUJHUDQJHRIVRFLDODQGHFRQRPLF
RSSRUWXQLWLHVVXFKDVILVKHU\WUDQVSRUWDWLRQDQGUHFUHDWLRQ
,QKHUHQWWRWKLVGHSHQGHQF\RQZDWHUKXPDQVHWWOHPHQWDQGGHYHORSPHQWKDYHFRQFHQWUDWHG
DURXQGZDWHUUHVRXUFHVDVDFRQVHTXHQFHRIZKLFKWKHVKRUHOLQHVRIHDUWK¶VRFHDQVODNHVDQG
ULYHUV KDYH EHFRPH WKH PRVW GHQVHO\ SRSXODWHG DQG FRPPHUFLDOO\ GHYHORSHG DUHDV RI WKH
ZRUOG9LWRXVHNDQG0RRQH\HVWLPDWHWKDWPRUHWKDQRIWKHJOREDOSRSXODWLRQ
ELOOLRQSHRSOHDUHOLYLQJLQFRDVWDODUHDVZKLOHWKHVHFRQVWLWXWHRQO\RIWKHJOREDOVXUIDFH
DUHD 3HUQHWWD DQG (OGHU HYHQ HVWLPDWH WKDW DV PXFK DV RI WKH SUHVHQW KXPDQ
SRSXODWLRQOLYHVZLWKLQNPRIWKHVKRUH0RUHRYHUDFFRUGLQJWR7XUQHUHWDOVL[W\
ILYH SHUFHQW RI FLWLHV ZLWK SRSXODWLRQV DERYH PLOOLRQ LQKDELWDQWV DUH ORFDWHG DORQJ WKH
ZRUOG¶VFRDVWV7KHVLWXDWLRQLVSDUWLFXODUO\WKUHDWHQLQJLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVZKHUHFRDVWDO
SRSXODWLRQVLQFUHDVHDWGRXEOHWKHDYHUDJHUHJLRQDOOHYHO
,QWURGXFWLRQ
$V D UHVXOW RI WKH UDSLG JURZWK RI WKH ZRUOG SRSXODWLRQ DQG WKH HQRUPRXV GHYHORSPHQW LQ
LQGXVWULDO DQG DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFWLRQ DQG LQ WKH H[SORLWDWLRQ RI UHVRXUFHV LQ WKH ODVW IHZ
GHFDGHV WKLV FRXUVH RI KXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW KDV FRPH LQ FRQIOLFW ZLWK LWVHOI $FFRUGLQJ WR
%RHVFK(($+DUGPDQ0RXQWIRUGHWDO.XOOHQEHUJ7XUQHUHW
DO DQG7XUQHUFRDVWDO]RQHVDUHFXUUHQWO\H[SHULHQFLQJLQWHQVHDQGVXVWDLQHG
SUHVVXUHV IURP D UDQJH RI VRXUFHV 5DSLG SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK XUEDQLVDWLRQ DQG LQGXVWULDO
GHYHORSPHQW DUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK KDUPIXO HIIOXHQW DQG VHZDJH GLVFKDUJHV 'HIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG
XQVXVWDLQDEOHODQGH[SORLWDWLRQUHVXOWLQHURVLRQDQGLQFUHDVHGSROOXWDQWODQGUXQRIIVWRVXUIDFH
ZDWHUV ,QWHQVLILHG DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFWLRQ KDV FUHDWHG SUREOHPV RI IHUWLOLVHU DQG SHVWLFLGH
UXQRII'HWHULRUDWLRQRIWKHTXDOLW\RIZDWHUUHVRXUFHVLVWKHFRQVHTXHQFHDQGLQFDVHVKDVOHG
WRLUUHYHUVLEOHDQGGLVDVWURXVFLUFXPVWDQFHV'HYHORSPHQWKDVEHFRPHXQVXVWDLQDEOH
$FKDUDFWHULVWLFRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPVUHODWHGWRZDWHUUHVRXUFHVLVWKDWVXFKSUREOHPVDUH
PRVWO\QRWRIDORFDOEXWUDWKHURIDUHJLRQDOQDWXUH:DWHUV\VWHPVFRQVLVWRIDQHWZRUNRI
ULYHUV ODNHV DQG UHVHUYRLUV ZKLFK WRJHWKHU FRYHU D SK\VLFDO DUHD RIWHQ UHIHUUHG WR DV WKH
µFDWFKPHQW DUHD¶ RI WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP 'XH WR WKH LQWHUFRQQHFWLYLW\ RI GLIIHUHQW SDUWV RI WKH
V\VWHP DFWLYLWLHV LQ RQH SDUW PD\ LPSDFW RWKHU SDUWV 3RWHQWLDO FRQIOLFWV EHWZHHQ XVHUV DQG
DFWLYLWLHVLQGLIIHUHQWSDUWVRIDZDWHUV\VWHPDUHDPSOHQRWVHOGRPUHVXOWLQJLQLQWHUQDWLRQDO
FRQIOLFWVRUHYHQZDUV$VFRQFOXGHGE\-¡UJHQVHQDQG9ROOHQZHLGHU6KHUPDQ
DQG 6KHUPDQ HW DO WKH RIWHQ ODUJH H[WHQW RI WKH FDWFKPHQW DUHD WKHUHIRUH FRPSHOV D
V\VWHPVDSSURDFKWRHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPV
,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHDFNQRZOHGJHPHQWRIWKHVSDWLDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQ
SUREOHPVRIZDWHUV\VWHPV0HHDQG%OR[KDP.XOOHQEHUJ7XUQHUHWDO
DQG7XUQHUFRQFOXGHWKDWWKHUHLVDJURZLQJXQGHUVWDQGLQJDPRQJVFLHQWLVWVDQGSROLF\
DGYLVRUV DOLNH RI WKH FRPSOH[ LQWHUGHSHQGHQW QDWXUH RI WKH SUREOHPV 7KHLU DWWHQWLRQ
SDUWLFXODUO\ IRFXVHV RQ WKH UHODWLRQ VRFLHW\HQYLURQPHQW EDVHG XSRQ WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKDW
PRVW HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHPV DUH UHODWHG WR DQWKURSRJHQLF DFWLYLWLHV FDXVLQJ FKDQJHV WR
HQYLURQPHQW FRQGLWLRQV WKDW LQ WXUQ UHLPSDFW VRFLHW\ $ XVHIXO IUDPHZRUN WR DVVHVV WKHVH
LQWHUUHODWLRQV LV WKH '36,5 'ULYLQJ IRUFHV ± 3UHVVXUHV ± 6WDWH ,PSDFW 5HVSRQVHV
IUDPHZRUNDVVFKHPDWLFDOO\SUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH
(QYLURQPHQWDO
3UHVVXUH
'ULYLQJ)RUFHV
6WDWHRIWKH
(QYLURQPHQW
,PSDFW
5HVSRQVHDFWLRQV
• )LJXUH 6FKHPDWLFSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
([DPSOHVRIVXFKFRQIOLFWVDUHSUHVHQWHGE\'H6R\DDQG*OHGLWVFK+DUULVDQG:RUOG5HVRXUFHV
,QVWLWXWH
&KDSWHU
7KH GULYLQJ IRUFHV UHSUHVHQW WKH VRFLRHFRQRPLF IDFWRUV VXFK DV SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG
LQGXVWULDODJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLWLHV DQG QDWXUDO IDFWRUV VXFK DV HURVLRQ DQG DWPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQ WKDW FDXVH SUHVVXUH RQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW WKURXJK IRU H[DPSOH GRPHVWLF DQG
LQGXVWULDOHIIOXHQWVDQGSROOXWDQWUXQRIIIURPODQGV7KHVHSUHVVXUHVPD\LQWXUQDIIHFWWKHVWDWH
RI WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP IRU H[DPSOH LQ WHUPV RI ZDWHU TXDOLW\ DQG HXWURSKLFDWLRQ UHVXOWLQJ LQ
DGYHUVH LPSDFWV VXFK DV ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV UHGXFHG ILVK DQG GULQNLQJ ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV
6XFKLPSDFWVSURYLGHWKHLQFHQWLYHIRUFRUUHFWLYHUHVSRQVHVDFWLRQVWDNHQDWWKHGLIIHUHQWOHYHOV
DG LQ )LJXUH IRU H[DPSOH D ODQGXVH SODQQLQJ E ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW F
K\GURORJLFDOPRGLILFDWLRQVRUGLPSURYLQJKHDOWKFDUH
$V PD\ EH FRQFOXGHG IURP WKH PXOWLWXGH RI DVSHFWV UHSUHVHQWHG LQ WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN
ILQGLQJVROXWLRQVWRZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPVUHTXLUHVDQDVVHVVPHQWDSSURDFKWKDWLQWHJUDWHV
NQRZOHGJHIURPYDULRXVGLVFLSOLQHVLQFOXGLQJSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDOELRORJLFDOVRFLRHFRQRPLF
DQGWHFKQRORJLFDODVSHFWVRIWKHSUREOHP6XFKDVVHVVPHQWEHFRPHVSDUWLFXODUO\FKDOOHQJLQJLQ
FDVHV RI VWURQJ OLPLWDWLRQV LQ GDWD DQG UHVRXUFHV IRU UHVHDUFK VXFK DV RIWHQ WKH FDVH LQ
GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV 7KH DVVHVVPHQW RI VXFK FDVHV LQYROYHV D IRUPLGDEOH WDVN LQ WUDFLQJ
FROOHFWLQJDQGYHULI\LQJGDWDLQWKHILHOG0RUHRYHULWUHTXLUHVWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIDSSURDFKHV
WKDWSURYLGHVXIILFLHQWO\UHOLDEOHUHVXOWVRQWKHEDVLVRIOLPLWHGGDWDIURPYDULRXVVRXUFHVDQG
GLVFLSOLQHVDQGZLWKYDU\LQJGHJUHHVRIFRQILGHQFH
7DNLQJ DFFRXQW RI WKH EHIRUHPHQWLRQHG FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG FRQVWUDLQWV RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ
SUREOHPV WKH IXQGDPHQWDO FKDOOHQJH GHILQHG IRU WKLV UHVHDUFK LV WR EULGJH WKH JDS EHWZHHQ
HQYLURQPHQWDO VFLHQFHVDQGSROLF\PDNLQJWKURXJKDQ,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW
,($DSSURDFKRIWHQDOVRUHIHUUHGWRDV(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV$QDO\VLV:LWKLQWKHVSHFLILF
FRQWH[W RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ SUREOHPV WKH VSHFLILF DSSURDFK DSSOLHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV LV IXUWKHU
UHIHUUHGWRDV,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW,:3$
7KHUHVHDUFKFDVHV
7KHUH DUH PDQ\ H[DPSOHV DURXQG WKH ZRUOG ZKHUH WKH TXDOLW\ RI FUXFLDO ZDWHU V\VWHPV KDV
VHYHUHO\GHJHQHUDWHGEXWZKHUHGXHWRDODFNRINQRZOHGJHDQGXQGHUVWDQGLQJQRVROXWLRQ
KDV\HWEHHQIRXQG$VSDUWRIWKLVUHVHDUFKWZRRIVXFKFDVHV/DNH9LFWRULDLQ(DVW$IULFD
DQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDLQ:HVW$IULFDZHUHVXEMHFWHGWRDQ,:3$/DNH9LFWRULDZDVVWXGLHG
ZLWKLQ WKH IUDPHZRUN RI D SURJUDP RI FRRSHUDWLRQ EHWZHHQ (LQGKRYHQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
7HFKQRORJ\DQGWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI'DUHV6DODDPGXULQJWKHSHULRG7KH*XOIRI
*XLQHDFDVHZDVDVVHVVHGLQFRRSHUDWLRQZLWKWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD/DUJH0DULQH(FRV\VWHP
3URMHFWH[HFXWHGE\WKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV,QGXVWULDO'HYHORSPHQW2UJDQLVDWLRQ81,'27KH
SHULRGRIVWXG\IRUWKLVVHFRQGFDVHZDV
)LJXUH GLVSOD\V WKH ORFDWLRQ RI WKH UHVHDUFK FDVHV /DNH 9LFWRULD WKH ODUJHVW $IULFDQ
IUHVKZDWHU ODNH LV VXUURXQGHG E\ WKUHH FRXQWULHV 7DQ]DQLD .HQ\D DQG 8JDQGD :LWKLQ LWV
FDWFKPHQW DUHD DUH IXUWKHUPRUH 5ZDQGD DQG %XUXQGL 7KH *XOI RI *XLQHD UHSUHVHQWV DQ
LPSRUWDQWPDULQHHFRV\VWHPLQ:HVW$IULFDERUGHUHGE\DWRWDORIFRXQWULHV
7KHVHFRQFHSWVDUHIXUWKHUH[SODLQHGLQFKDSWHURIWKLVWKHVLV
7KHUHVXOWVRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULD,:3$DUHUHSRUWHGE\/HPPHQVHWDODE6FKHUHQDQG
6FKHUHQHWDODE
7KHUHVXOWVRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD,:3$DUHUHSRUWHGE\6FKHUHQDQG,EHDQG6FKHUHQHWDODE
,QWURGXFWLRQ
/DNH 9LFWRULD
*XOI RI *XLQHD
• )LJXUH 0DSSUHVHQWLQJWKHORFDWLRQRIWKHWZRUHVHDUFKFDVHV/DNH9LFWRULDLQ(DVW$IULFD
DQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDLQ:HVW$IULFD
,QPDQ\UHVSHFWVWKHWZRFDVHVVKRZVLPLODULWLHV,QERWKFDVHVDZDWHUERG\LVDIIHFWHGE\
LQWHQVLYH KXPDQ LQWHUIHUHQFH Š FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ UDSLG SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG XUEDQLVDWLRQ
DQG LQWHQVLYH LQGXVWULDO DQG DJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLWLHV )XUWKHUPRUH ERWK ZDWHU ERGLHV VSUHDG
DFURVVERUGHUVPDNLQJLWDWUDQVERXQGDU\SUREOHP$FRPPRQLVVXHLVPRUHRYHUWKHIDFWWKDW
GDWD LV VFDUFH DQG WKDW FDSDFLW\ DQG UHVRXUFHV IRU UHVHDUFK DUH UHVWULFWHG )XUWKHUPRUH DV
FRQFOXGHGE\DPRQJRWKHUV%HHWRQ+HFN\HWDODQG,EHDQG=DELLQ
ERWKFDVHVDVLQPDQ\FDVHVDURXQGWKHZRUOGWKHODUJHVWFRQFHUQLVWKHRUJDQLFSROOXWLRQORDG
LQWR WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP 7KH UHVHDUFK LQ WKLV WKHVLV WKHUHIRUH IRFXVHV RQ 1LWURJHQ 1 DQG
SKRVSKRURXV3DVWKHSULQFLSDOQXWULHQWVLQZDWHUV\VWHPVDQG%LRORJLFDO2[\JHQ'HPDQG
%2' DV D PHDVXUH IRU WKH RUJDQLF SROOXWLRQ ORDG :KHUH WKH WHUP µSROOXWDQW¶ LV XVHG
WKHUHIRUH WKHVH WKUHH SDUDPHWHUV 1 3 DQG %2' DUH SULQFLSDOO\ UHIHUUHG WR :KHUH
DSSURSULDWH KRZHYHU RWKHU SROOXWDQWV VXFK DV LQRUJDQLF FKHPLFDOV HJ SHVWLFLGHV KHDY\
PHWDOVDVZHOODVDVSHFWVRIVROLGZDVWHDQGDLUSROOXWLRQŠLQGLUHFWO\DIIHFWLQJZDWHUTXDOLW\
WKURXJKUHVSHFWLYHO\OHDFKLQJDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQŠDUHGLVFXVVHG
&KDSWHU
<HWWKHUHDUHDOVRVXEVWDQWLDOGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHWZRFDVHV)LUVWRIDOO/DNH9LFWRULDLVD
ODUJHLQODQGODNHZLWKFRQVLGHUDEO\GLIIHUHQWSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDODQGHFRORJLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
DQGG\QDPLFVWKDQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDFRDVWDODQGODJRRQV\VWHP6HFRQGO\WKHGHPRJUDSKLF
DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH FDWFKPHQW DUHDV RI WKH V\VWHPV YDU\FRQVLGHUDEO\
ZKLOVWWKHFRDVWDO]RQHRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDUHSUHVHQWVDQDUHDRIDGYDQFHGGHYHORSPHQWLQ
WHUPV RI LQGXVWULDO DFWLYLWLHV DQG ODUJH XUEDQ VHWWOHPHQWV /DJRV DORQH KRVWV PLOOLRQ
LQKDELWDQWVWKHDUHDDURXQG/DNH9LFWRULDLVIRUWKHODUJHUSDUWRIDUXUDOQDWXUHFKDUDFWHULVHG
E\LQWHQVLYHDJULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHVDQGVPDOOHUXUEDQVHWWOHPHQWV7KHWZRUHVHDUFKFDVHVDUH
PRUHH[WHQVLYHO\GHVFULEHGLQFKDSWHUVDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\
5HVHDUFKREMHFWLYHV
7KHIRFXVRIWKLVWKHVLVLVRQWKH,:3$RIZDWHUUHVRXUFHVVXFKDVODNHVUHVHUYRLUVHVWXDULHV
ODJRRQVDQGFRDVWDOZDWHUVDQGWKHLUUHODWHGZDWHUV\VWHPV$QLPSRUWDQWSDUWRIWKHWKHVLVLV
FRQWULEXWHGWRWKHDFWXDOH[HFXWLRQRIDQ,:3$RIWKHWZRUHVHDUFKFDVHV/DNH9LFWRULDDQG
WKH*XOIRI*XLQHD:LWKUHJDUGWRWKHVHWZRFDVHVWKHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVUHVHDUFKLV
WRGHYHORSDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIZDWHU
SROOXWLRQFRQWUROPHDVXUHVRQWKHEDVLVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
7KHUHVHDUFKSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVLQYROYHVWKHFRPSOHWH'36,5IUDPHZRUN7KHIRFXVLV
KRZHYHURQWKHµGULYLQJIRUFHV¶µSUHVVXUH¶µVWDWH¶DQGµUHVSRQVH¶HOHPHQWVRIWKHIUDPHZRUN
VHHDOVR)LJXUHIRUZKLFKWKHREMHFWLYHLVWRGHYHORSDQDVPXFKDVSRVVLEOHTXDQWLWDWLYH
PRGHO7KHµLPSDFW¶DVSHFWRIWKHIUDPHZRUNLVDVVHVVHGRQO\TXDOLWDWLYHO\
$SDUWIURPWKLVFDVHVSHFLILFREMHFWLYHDQRYHUDOOREMHFWLYHRIWKLVUHVHDUFKLV
WR GHYHORS D FRQFHSWXDO DQG PHWKRGRORJLFDO IUDPHZRUN IRU ,QWHJUDWHG :DWHU
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWXQGHUGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUFRQGLWLRQV
6WUXFWXUHRIWKHWKHVLV
&KDSWHU SUHVHQWV WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH UHVHDUFK SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV ,W LQWURGXFHV WKH
SUREOHPV DQG FKDOOHQJHV RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW LQ GDWD DQG UHVRXUFH SRRU VLWXDWLRQV
DQGWKHWZRFDVHVWXGLHVUHVHDUFKHGDVSDUWRIWKLVWKHVLVLQSDUWLFXODU,QWXUQWKHVHFKDOOHQJHV
IRUPWKHEDVLVIRUVSHFLILFUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYHV
&KDSWHUSURYLGHVWKHWKHRUHWLFDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNIRUWKHUHVHDUFKGHVFULEHGLQ
WKLV WKHVLV 7KH RYHUDUFKLQJ WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUN FRQFHUQV WKH FRQFHSW RI ³,QWHJUDWHG
(QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW ,($´ 7KH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN LV IXUWKHUPRUH SUHVHQWHG DV D
JXLGDQFHWRROIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQW)XUWKHUPRUHVSHFLILFFRQFHSWVDQGUHVHDUFKPHWKRGRORJLHV
DUH SUHVHQWHG IRU PRGHOOLQJ DQG DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH µGULYLQJ IRUFHV¶
µSUHVVXUHV¶µVWDWH¶µLPSDFWV¶DQGµUHVSRQVH¶HOHPHQWVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN$WWHQWLRQLV
IXUWKHUPRUHJLYHQWRWKHDVSHFWRIXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
&KDSWHUVDQGSUHVHQWWKHWZRUHVHDUFKFDVHV/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDFRDVWDO
HFRV\VWHP7KHDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHFDVHVWXGLHVLVSULPDULO\SUHVHQWHGE\PHDQVRIUHVHDUFK
SXEOLFDWLRQV SXEOLVKHG DQG VXEPLWWHG RYHU WKH SHULRG WR 7KH SXEOLFDWLRQV HDFK
SUHVHQW SDUWLFXODU DVSHFWV RI WKH '63,5 IUDPHZRUN IRFXVVLQJ RQ WKH LQWHUUHODWLQJ VWHSV
EHWZHHQWKHHOHPHQWVRIWKHIUDPHZRUNDVSRUWUD\HGLQ)LJXUH
x , UHODWLRQGULYLQJIRUFHV±HQYLURQPHQWDOSUHVVXUH
x ,, UHODWLRQHQYLURQPHQWDOSUHVVXUH±VWDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQW
x ,,,UHODWLRQVWDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQW±LPSDFWV
x ,9UHVSRQVHVDFWLRQVLQUHODWLRQWRRWKHUHOHPHQWVRIWKHIUDPHZRUNDEFG
'ULYLQJ)RUFHV
,
(QYLURQPHQWDO
3UHVVXUH
,9D
,9E
,,
6WDWHRIWKH
(QYLURQPHQW
,9F
,,,
,PSDFW
,9G
5HVSRQVHDFWLRQV
• )LJXUH 6FKHPDWLFSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNLQGLFDWLQJWKHYDULRXVVWHSVRIWKH
DVVHVVPHQW7KHZKLWHER[HGDUHDUHSUHVHQWVWKHSDUWIRUZKLFKDTXDQWLWDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWLV
HODERUDWHG
$QRYHUYLHZRIWKHDVSHFWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWFRYHUHGE\HDFKRIWKHSXEOLFDWLRQVLVSUHVHQWHG
LQ7DEOH7KHSXEOLFDWLRQVDUHIROORZHGE\DQRYHUDOODQDO\VLVRIUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQW
DQ DQDO\VLV RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ GDWD DQG UHVXOWV DQG D VXPPDU\ RI WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW
FRQFOXVLRQVDQGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
&KDSWHU SUHVHQWV D ILQDO DQDO\VLV RI WKH UHVXOWV DQG H[SHULHQFHV JDLQHG IURP WKH UHVHDUFK
SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV 7KH ILUVW SDUW RI FKDSWHU IRFXVHV RQ WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKH WZR FDVH
VWXGLHV DQG WKH DFKLHYHPHQW RI WKH FDVH VWXG\ OHYHO REMHFWLYH RI WKLV UHVHDUFK ,PSRUWDQW
OHVVRQVOHDUQWIURPWKHWZRFDVHVDUHVXPPDUL]HG7KHVHFRQGSDUWRIFKDSWHUUHIOHFWVXSRQ
WKHDFKLHYHPHQWRIWKHRYHUDOOUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYHDQGSURYLGHVDQDQDO\VLVRIWKHVWUHQJWKVDQG
WKH ZHDNQHVVHV RI WKH FRQFHSWXDO DQG PHWKRGRORJLFDO IUDPHZRUN)LQDOO\UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
DUHPDGHIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFK
7KHRFFXUUHQFHRIµLPSDFWV¶FUHDWHVWKHLQFHQWLYHIRUUHVSRQVHVDQGDFWLRQVWREHWDNHQHJGHJHQHUDWLRQRIILVKLQJ
UHVRXUFHVRUREVHUYDWLRQRISROOXWLRQOHDGWRFRQFHUQVIURPVRFLHW\ZKLFKLQWXUQUHVXOWLQSUHVVXUHRQJRYHUQPHQWWRWDNH
DFWLRQ6WHS,9GWKHUHIRUHZRUNVERWKZD\VDVLVLQGLFDWHGE\WKHWZRZD\DUURZLQ)LJXUH7KHSROLWLFDOVRFLRORJLFDO
DQGFXOWXUDODVSHFWVRIWKHLPSDFW:UHVSRQVHVUHODWLRQDUHKRZHYHUQRWGLVFXVVHGLQWKLVWKHVLV
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH
2YHUYLHZRISXEOLFDWLRQVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVLQFOXGLQJWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHDVSHFWVLQ
UHODWLRQWRWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
6HFWLRQ 5HVHDUFKSXEOLFDWLRQ
$VSHFWV
6FKHUHQ 3$ %RVERRP -& 1MDX .1 /HPPHQV $0 $VVHVVPHQW RI
:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQWKH&DWFKPHQW$UHDRI/DNH9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD-RXUQDORI(DVWHUQ
$IULFDQ5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW
,,,,
6FKHUHQ3$=DQWLQJ+$/HPPHQV$0(VWLPDWLRQRI:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ ,,,,,,,9
LQ/DNH9LFWRULD$SSOLFDWLRQDQG(ODERUDWLRQRIWKH5DSLG$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGRORJ\
-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW
6FKHUHQ 3$ 0LUDPER 9 /HPPHQV $0 -DQVVHQ )- .DWLPD -+ ,,,,,,,9
$VVHVVPHQW RI 3ROOXWLRQ 6RXUFHV DQG 6RFLRHFRQRPLF &LUFXPVWDQFHV UHODWHG WR WKH
(XWURSKLFDWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULD6\PSRVLXP
LQ.DPSDOD8JDQGD0D\
6FKHUHQ 3$ ,EH $& -DQVVHQ )- /HPPHQV $0 (QYLURQPHQWDO
3ROOXWLRQLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD$5HJLRQDO$SSURDFK0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ
6FKHUHQ3$.URH]H&-DQVVHQ)-+RUGLMN/3WDVLQVNL.-,QWHJUDWHG ,,,,,,,9
:DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ $VVHVVPHQW RI WKH (EULp /DJRRQ &{WH G¶,YRLUH :HVW $IULFD
VXEPLWWHGWR-RXUQDORI0DULQH6\VWHPV
,,,,
5HIHUHQFHV
%RHVFK')7KH5ROHRI6FLHQFHLQ2FHDQ*RYHUQDQFH(FRORJ\DQG(FRQRP\
%HHWRQ $0 /DUJH )UHVKZDWHU ODNHV 3UHVHQW 6WDWH 7UHQGVDQG)XWXUH(QYLURQPHQWDO&RQVHUYDWLRQ
'H6R\D,*OHGLWVFK137R&XOWLYDWH3HDFH$JULFXOWXUHLQD:RUOGRI&RQIOLFW35,25HSRUW
,QWHUQDWLRQDO3HDFH5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH2VOR
(($ (XURSHDQ (QYLURQPHQWDO $JHQF\ 7KH 'REULV $VVHVVPHQW ± &KDSWHU 7KH 0DQDJHPHQW RI
)UHVKZDWHU±7KH3UREOHPVKWWSUHSRUWVHHDHXLQWHQSDJHQHZKWPO
(DUKVXPPLW(DUWKVXPPLW-RKDQQHVEXUJ6RXWK$IULFD,QWHUQHWKWWSHDUWKVXPPLWRUJ
+DUGPDQ0RXQWIRUG 1- .RUDQJWHQJ .$ 3ULFH $5* 7KH *XOI RI *XLQHD /DUJH 0DULQH
(FRV\VWHP ,Q &5& 6KHSSDUG 6HDV DW WKH 0LOOHQQLXP $Q (QYLURQPHQWDO (YDOXDWLRQ 9RO 3HUJDPRQ
(OVHYLHU
+DUULV * ,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWDQG0RGHOOLQJ$Q(VVHQWLDO:D\RI'RLQJ6FLHQFH(QYLURQPHQWDO
0RGHOOLQJ6RIWZDUH
+HFN\ 5( %XJHQ\L ): 2FKXPED 3 7DOOLQJ -) 0XJLGGH 5 *RSKHQ 0 .DXIPDQ / 'HR[\JHQDWLRQRIWKH'HHS:DWHURI/DNH9LFWRULD(DVW$IULFD/LPQRORJ\DQG2FHDQRJUDSK\
,EH$&=DEL6*6WDWHRIWKH&RDVWDODQGPDULQH(QYLURQPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD&('$SUHVV
&RWRQRX
-¡UJHQVHQ6(9ROOHQZHLGHU5$*XLGHOLQHVRI/DNH0DQDJHPHQW,QWHUQDWLRQDO/DNH(QYLURQPHQW
&RPPLWWHH.\RPDFKL-DSDQ
.XOOHQEHUJ*&RQWULEXWLRQVRI0DULQHDQG&RDVWDO$UHD5HVHDUFKDQG2EVHUYDWLRQVWRZDUGV6XVWDLQDEOH
'HYHORSPHQWRI/DUJH&RDVWDO&LWLHV2FHDQ&RDVWDO0DQDJHPHQW
/HPPHQV$06FKHUHQ3$=DQWLQJ+$1MDX*-YDQ+RUHQ'-D,QGXVWU\DQG(QYLURQPHQW
0HWKRGRORJLHV IRU (QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW LQ 'DWD 3RRU 6LWXDWLRQV 3DSHU 3UHVHQWHG DW WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&RQIHUHQFHRQWKH,QGXVWULDO3HUIRUPDQFHRI7DQ]DQLD-XQH(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
/HPPHQV $0 =DQWLQJ +$ 6FKHUHQ 3$ .DWLPD -+ %DOLUZD -6 %XJHQ\L ): E $ 5DSLG
$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGRORJ\IRU(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQ,QYHQWRU\LQ7DQ]DQLD/DNH9LFWRULD&DWFKPHQW$UHDDVD
&DVH6WXG\3DSHUSUHVHQWHGDWWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO6\PSRVLXPRQ(QJLQHHULQJIRU6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW
-XO\'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
/HPPHQV$06FKHUHQ3$=DQWLQJ+$1MDX*-YDQ+RUHQ'-,QGXVWU\DQG(QYLURQPHQW
0HWKRGRORJLHV IRU (QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW LQ 'DWD 3RRU 6LWXDWLRQV ,Q 6]LUPDL $ /DSHUUH 3 (GV7KH
LQGXVWULDO([SHULHQFHRI7DQ]DQLD3DOJUDYH3XEOLVKHUV1HZ<RUN
0HH/'%OR[KDP0$VVHVVLQJWKH,PSDFWRI3ROOXWLRQRQ$TXDWLF6\VWHPVDWD*OREDODQG5HJLRQDO
/HYHO0DULQH(QYLURQPHQWDO5HVHDUFK
3HUQHWWD-&(OGHU'/&OLPDWH6HDOHYHO5LVHDQGWKH&RDVWDO=RQH0DQDJHPHQWDQG3ODQQLQJIRU
*OREDO&KDQJHV2FHDQDQG&RDVWDO0DQDJHPHQW
6FKHUHQ3$%RVERRP-&1MDX.15DSLG$VVHVVPHQWRI:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQWKH&DWFKPHQW$UHD
RI/DNH9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD&HQWHUIRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RRSHUDWLRQ$FWLYLWLHV(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\
6FKHUHQ 3$ $ 6\VWHPDWLF $SSURDFK WR /DNH :DWHU SROOXWLRQ $VVHVVPHQW :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ /DNH
9LFWRULD(DVW$IULFD(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\
6FKHUHQ 3$ %RVERRP -& 1MDX .1 /HPPHQV $0 $VVHVVPHQW RI :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH
&DWFKPHQW$UHDRI/DNH9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD-RXUQDORI(DVWHUQ$IULFDQ5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW
6FKHUHQ 3$ 0LUDPER 9 /HPPHQV $0 -DQVVHQ )- .DWLPD -+ D $VVHVVPHQW RI 3ROOXWLRQ
6RXUFHVDQG6RFLRHFRQRPLF&LUFXPVWDQFHVUHODWHGWRWKH(XWURSKLFDWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH
/DNH9LFWRULD6\PSRVLXPLQ.DPSDOD8JDQGD0D\
6FKHUHQ 3$ =DQWLQJ +$ /HPPHQV $0 E (VWLPDWLRQ RI :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD
$SSOLFDWLRQDQG(ODERUDWLRQRIWKH5DSLG$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGRORJ\-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW
6FKHUHQ 3$ ,EH $& (QYLURQPHQWDO 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD ± $ 5HJLRQDO $SSURDFK ,Q
0F*ODGH-0&XUU\3.RUDQJWHQJ.$+DUGPDQ0RXQWIRUG1-(GV7KH*XOIRI*XLQHD/DUJH0DULQH
(FRV\VWHP (QYLURQPHQWDO )RUFLQJ 6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW RI 0DULQH 5HVRXUFHV (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH
3XEOLVKHUVWKH1HWKHUODQGV
6FKHUHQ3$,EH$&-DQVVHQ)-/HPPHQV$0D(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
$5HJLRQDO$SSURDFK0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ
6FKHUHQ 3$ .URH]H & -DQVVHQ )- +RUGLMN / 3WDVLQVNL .- E ,QWHJUDWHG :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ
$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH(EULp/DJRRQ&{WHG¶,YRLUH:HVW$IULFDVXEPLWWHGWR-RXUQDORI0DULQH6\VWHPV
6KHUPDQ . $OH[DQGHU /0 *ROG %' /DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHPV 6WUHVV 0LWLJDWLRQ DQG
6XVWDLQDELOLW\$$$63UHVV:DVKLQJWRQ'&
6KHUPDQ . 7KH *XOI RI *XLQHD DQG *OREDO 'HYHORSPHQWV DQG 6XVWDLQDELOLW\ RI /DUJH 0DULQH
(FRV\VWHPV ,Q ,EH $& 2WHQJ<HERDK $$ =DEL 6* $IRODEL ' (GV ,QWHJUDWHG (QYLURQPHQWDO DQG
/LYLQJ 5HVRXUFHV 0DQDJHPHQW LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD 7KH /DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHP $SSURDFK &6,5 3UHVV
$FFUD*KDQD
7XUQHU5.6XEDN6$GJHU13UHVVXUHV7UHQGVDQG,PSDFWVLQ&RDVWDO=RQHV,QWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQ
6RFLR(FRQRPLFDQGQDWXUDO6\VWHPV-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW
7XUQHU5.,QWHJUDWLQJ1DWXUDODQG6RFLRHFRQRPLF6FLHQFHLQ&RDVWDOPDQDJHPHQW-RXUQDORI0DULQH
6\VWHPV
9LWRXVHN300RRQH\+$(VWLPDWHVRI&RDVWDO3RSXODWLRQ6FLHQFH
:RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH:RUOG5HVRXUFHV3HRSOHDQG(FRV\VWHPV7KH)UD\LQJ:HERI
/LIH8QLWHG1DWLRQV'HYHORSPHQW3URJUDP8QLWHG1DWLRQV(QYLURQPHQW3URJUDP:RUOGEDQN:RUOG5HVRXUFHV
,QVWLWXWH:DVKLQJWRQ'&
&KDSWHU
&KDSWHU
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO
)UDPHZRUN
(ODERUDWLRQRI$SSOLHG&RQFHSWVDQG0HWKRGRORJLHV
&KDSWHUSURYLGHVWKHWKHRUHWLFDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNIRUWKHUHVHDUFKGHVFULEHG
LQ WKLV WKHVLV 7KH RYHUDUFKLQJ WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUN RI WKLV WKHVLV FRQFHUQV ILUVW RI DOO WKH
FRQFHSWRI³,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW,($´ZKLFKZLWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIZDWHU
SROOXWLRQ SUREOHPV LQ WKLV WKHVLV LV UHIHUUHG WR DV ³,QWHJUDWHG :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ $VVHVVPHQW
,:3$´7KH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDFRPPRQO\XVHGDSSURDFKLQ,($LVIXUWKHUPRUHSUHVHQWHG
DVWKHSULQFLSOHJXLGDQFHWRROIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQW
:LWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNVSHFLILFWKHRULHVDQGUHVHDUFKPHWKRGRORJLHVDUH
SUHVHQWHG IRU PRGHOOLQJ DQG DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ GULYLQJ IRUFHV
SUHVVXUHV VWDWH RI WKH HQYLURQPHQW LPSDFWV DQG UHVSRQVHV 7KH PHWKRGRORJLHV VWHP IURP
YDULRXVWHFKQRORJLFDODQGVFLHQWLILFGLVFLSOLQHV$WWHQWLRQLVIXUWKHUPRUHJLYHQWRWKHDVSHFWRI
XQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV7KHGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHWKHRUHWLFDOIUDPHZRUNLVVXSSRUWHGE\DUHYLHZRI
OLWHUDWXUHRQWKHYDULRXVWRSLFV
,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW
:KDWLV,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW"
$VGLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQWKHDSSURDFKIRU,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW,:3$
DV GHYHORSHG LQ WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ LV EDVHG XSRQ WKH FRQFHSW RI ,QWHJUDWHG (QYLURQPHQWDO
$VVHVVPHQW,($7KHILUVWTXHVWLRQWREHDQVZHUHGLVWKHUHIRUH:KDWLV,($",QDQVZHULQJ
WKLVTXHVWLRQZHKDYHWRFRQFOXGHILUVWRIDOOWKDWWKHWHUPLQRORJ\XVHGIRUWKHGLVFLSOLQHRI
,($LVQRWFRQVLVWHQW7DEOHSUHVHQWVDQRYHUYLHZRIWHUPVLGHQWLILHGLQOLWHUDWXUH$SDUW
IURP ,($ WHUPV OLNH ,QWHJUDWHG $VVHVVPHQW RU $QDO\VLV ,QWHJUDWHG (QYLURQPHQWDO
0DQDJHPHQW (QYLURQPHQWDO 6\VWHPV $QDO\VLV DQG (DUWK 6\VWHPV (QJLQHHULQJ DQG
0DQDJHPHQW DOO UHIHU WR PRUH RU OHVV WKH VDPH DSSURDFK 0RUHRYHU ,QWHJUDWHG &DWFKPHQW
0DQDJHPHQWWKH/DUJH0DULQH(FRV\VWHPDSSURDFK,QWHJUDWHG5LYHU%DVLQ0DQDJHPHQWDQG
,QWHJUDWHG&RDVWDO=RQH0DQDJHPHQWKDYHODUJHRYHUODSVZLWK,($DOWKRXJKDLPHGDWVSHFLILF
DSSOLFDWLRQV ,W LV HYHQ DUJXHG VHH 7DEOH WKDW (QYLURQPHQWDO ,PSDFW $VVHVVPHQW
6WUDWHJLF (QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW 'HFLVLRQ 6XSSRUW 6\VWHPV 1DWXUDO 5HVRXUFH
0DQDJHPHQW (FRORJLFDOO\ 6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW (DUWK 6\VWHP 0RGHOOLQJ 7HFKQRORJ\
$VVHVVPHQW/LIHF\FOH$VVHVVPHQWDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROLF\DQG5LVN$QDO\VLVDUHVWURQJO\
UHODWHGW\SHVRIDVVHVVPHQW
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
• 7DEOH
2YHUYLHZRIWHUPLQRORJ\XVHGIRU,($DQGUHODWHGGLVFLSOLQHV5HIHUHQFHVDUH
H[HPSODUDQGDUHQRWLQWHQGHGWREHIXOO\FRPSUHKHQVLYH
7HUPLQRORJ\
/LWHUDWXUH5HIHUHQFHV
*HQHUDO,($
,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW
+DLJK-lJHU7RODQG9HOOLQJD
7RWKDQG+L]VQ\LN
,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW$QDO\VLV
*RXJKHWDO+DUULV+RUGLMN
.ZDDQG'UHVHQ3DUVRQ3DUNHUHWDO
5LVEH\HWDO5RWPDQV
,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW
$QWXQHVDQG6DQWRV/XLWHQ
(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV$QDO\VLV
0LVHUDQG4XDGH
(DUWK6\VWHPV(QJLQHHULQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW
$OOHQE\*UDHGHODQG$OOHQE\
$SSOLFDWLRQVSHFLILF,($
,QWHJUDWHG&DWFKPHQW0DQDJHPHQW
:DOPVOH\
/DUJH0DULQH(FRV\VWHPDSSURDFK
6KHUPDQHWDO6KHUPDQ
,QWHJUDWHG5LYHU%DVLQ0DQDJHPHQW
'RZQVHWDO
,QWHJUDWHG&RDVWDO=RQH0DQDJHPHQW
7XUQHUHWDO
5HODWHGGLVFLSOLQHV
(QYLURQPHQWDO,PSDFW$VVHVVPHQW6WUDWHJLF
$($7HFKQRORJ\*RXJKHWDO
(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW'HFLVLRQ6XSSRUW6\VWHPV +DUULVDQG5RWPDQVDUJXHWKH
UHODWLRQVKLSRIWKHVHGLVFLSOLQHVZLWK,($
1DWXUDO5HVRXUFH0DQDJHPHQW(FRORJLFDOO\
6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW(DUWK6\VWHP0RGHOOLQJ
7HFKQRORJ\$VVHVVPHQW/LIHF\FOH$VVHVVPHQWDQG
(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROLF\DQG5LVN$QDO\VLV
(TXDO WR WKH GLYHUVLW\ LQ WHUPV GHILQLWLRQV RI ,($ YDU\ FRQVLGHUDEO\ 7KHUH LV REYLRXVO\ QR
FRQVHQVXV RQ ZKDW ,($ H[DFWO\ HQFRPSDVVHV 6HYHUDO H[DPSOHV RI GHILQLWLRQV RI ,($ DUH
SUHVHQWHG LQ %R[ ,Q WKH DEVHQFH RI D FRPPRQ GHILQLWLRQ RI ,($ LW VHHPV DSSURSULDWH WR
SURYLGHDGHILQLWLRQRIZKDWLVXQGHUVWRRGDVEHLQJ,($ZLWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKLVWKHVLV
,QWHJUDWHG (QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW LV WKH LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\ DVVHVVPHQW RI DOO UHOHYDQW QDWXUDO DQG
KXPDQ SURFHVVHV DQG WKHLU LQWHUDFWLRQV ZKLFK GHWHUPLQH ERWK WKH FXUUHQW DQG IXWXUH VWDWH RI
HQYLURQPHQWDO TXDOLW\ DQG UHVRXUFHV DV ZHOO DV UHODWHG GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW LPSDFWV RQ VSDWLDO DQG
WHPSRUDO VFDOHV FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH ERXQGDULHV RI WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO V\VWHP XQGHU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ
ZLWKWKHREMHFWLYHWRIDFLOLWDWHWKHGHYHORSPHQWRISROLFLHVDQGVWUDWHJLHV7KLVWKHVLV
7KHIRUHJRLQJGHILQLWLRQEXLOGVXSRQGHILQLWLRQVDVSUHVHQWHGLQ%R[$OOVRXUFHVVHHPWR
DFNQRZOHGJHWKHLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\DQGSROLF\RULHQWHGQDWXUHRI,($+RZHYHUDIHDWXUHRIWHQ
QHJOHFWHGLVWKHV\VWHPVEDVHGQDWXUHRI,($$OWKRXJKDOOZHOONQRZQH[DPSOHVRI,($VXFK
DV VWXGLHV RI JOREDO ZDUPLQJ DQG DFLG UDLQ GR DSSO\ D V\VWHPV DSSURDFK LW PD\ LQGHHG EH
DUJXHG ZKHWKHU VXFK DSSURDFK DSSOLHV WR DOO ,($V <HW WKH LVVXH LV FRQVLGHUHG RI FUXFLDO
LPSRUWDQFH WR FDVHV VXFK DV WKDW RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW 7KH NH\ IHDWXUHV RI ,($ DV
DSSOLHGLQWKLVWKHVLVFDQWKXVEHVXPPDUL]HGDV
x $V\VWHPVDSSURDFK
x $SUREOHPVROYLQJGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWRULHQWHGDVVHVVPHQWSURFHVV
x ,QWHJUDWLRQRIGLVFLSOLQHV
(DFKRIWKHVHIHDWXUHVLVIXUWKHUHODERUDWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV
&KDSWHU
• %R[ 'HILQLWLRQVRI,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW
³,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWLVWKHLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\SURFHVVRILG HQWLILFDWLRQDQDO\VLVDQGDSSUDLVDORI
DOOUHOHYDQWQDWXUDODQGKXPDQSURFHVVHVDQWKHLULQWHUDFWLRQVZKLFKGHWHUPLQHERWKWKHFXUUHQWDQGIXWXUHVWDWH
RIHQYLURQPHQWDOTXDOLW\DQGUHVRXUFHVRQDSSURSULDWHVSDWLDODQGWHPSRUDOVFDOHVWKXVIDFLOLWDWLQJW KHIUDPLQJ
DQGLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRISROLFLHVDQGVWUDWHJLHV1(5,´
³6\VWHPV$QDO\VLVLVDZD\WRLQYHVWLJDWHKRZWREHVWDLGDGHFLVLRQRUSROLF\PDNHUIDFHGZLWKFRPSOH[
SUREOHPVRIFKRLFHXQGHUXQFHUWDLQW\DSUDFWLFDOSKLORVRSK\IRUFDUU\LQJRXWGHFLVLRQRULHQWHGPXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\
UHVHDUFKDQGDSHUVSHFWLYHRQWKHSURSHUXVHRIWKHDYDLODEOHWRROV0LVHUDQG4XDGH´ ³,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQWDLPVDWFRQVROLGDWLQJVRFLRHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWREMHFWLYHVZLWKWKH
SUHVHUYDWLRQRIHQYLURQPHQWDOTXDOLW\DQGHFRORJ\WKURXJKWKHDGRSWLRQRISROLF\LQVWUXPHQWVDQGPHDVXUHV
$QWXQHVDQG6DQWRV´
³,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWLVDVWUXFWXUHGSURFHVVRIGHDOLQJZLWKFRPSOH[LVVXHVXVLQJNQRZOHGJHIURPYDULRXV
VFLHQWLILFGLVFLSOLQHVDQGRUVWDNHKROGHUVVXFKWKDWLQWHJUDWHGLQVLJKWVDUHPDGHDYDLODEOHWRGHFLVLRQPDNHUV
5RWPDQV´
³,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWLVDPXOWLRULQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\SURFHVVRIVWUXFWXULQJNQRZOHGJHHOHPHQWVIURPYDULRXV
VFLHQWLILFGLVFLSOLQHVLQVXFKDPDQQHUWKDWDOOUHOHYDQWDVSHFWVRIDVRFLDOSUREOHPDUHFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHLU
PXWXDOFRKHUHQFHIRUWKHEHQHILWRIGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ,&,6´
³,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWFDQEHGHILQHGDVSROLF\UHOHYDQWPXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\UHVHDUFKRQ
HQYLURQPHQWDOLVVXHV7RODQG9HOOLQJD´
³$FRPPRQO\DFFHSWHGIHDWXUHRI,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWLVWKDWLWLVERUQIURPWKHMRLQWFRQWULEXWLRQRIVHYHUDO
GLVFLSOLQDU\ILHOGVDQGWKDWDXVHIXO,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWVKRXOGEHDEOHWRFRSHZLWKDSOXUDOLW\RI
SHUVSHFWLYHVRQDSDUWLFXODULVVXH*RXJKHWDO´
6\VWHPVDSSURDFK
$VGHILQHGE\%HQQHWDQG&KRUOH\
³$V\VWHPLVDVHWRIORJLFDORSHUDWLRQVDFWLQJXSRQDQGDFWHGXSRQE\RQHRUPRUHLQSXWV7KHVH
LQSXWVOHDGWRWKHSURGXFWLRQRIRXWSXWVIURPWKHV\VWHPDQGWKLVSURFHVVRIWKURXJKSXWLVFDSDEOHRI
HLWKHUVXVWDLQLQJWKHRSHUDWLRQDOVWUXFWXUHRIWKHV\VWHPRURIWUDQVIRUPLQJLW,QSXWVWKURXJKSXWVDQG
RXWSXWVRIV\VWHPVFDQLQYROYHIORZVRIPDVVHQHUJ\LQIRUPDWLRQRULGHDVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHPDQQHU LQZKLFKWKHV\VWHPLVGHILQHG´
,QVKRUWWKXVDV\VWHPLVDJURXSRILQWHUDFWLQJLQWHUGHSHQGHQWSDUWVOLQNHGE\H[FKDQJHVRI
HQHUJ\PDWWHUDQGRULQIRUPDWLRQZKLFKDVVWDWHGE\(GZDUGVFDQQRWEHVXFFHVVIXOO\
XQGHUVWRRG RU PDQDJHG SLHFHPHDO :LWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH HQYLURQPHQW V\VWHPV PD\ EH
GLYLGHGLQWRWKUHHPDLQGLPHQVLRQV)LUVWRIDOOWKHSK\VLFDOGLPHQVLRQRIWKHREMHFWRIVWXG\
ZKLFKUHIHUVWRWKHDUHDRILQIOXHQFHRUµFDWFKPHQWDUHD¶DQGFRXOGDOVREHFDOOHGWKHVSDWLDO
GLPHQVLRQ $ VHFRQG GLPHQVLRQ LV WKH HFRORJLFDO GLPHQVLRQ IRU ZKLFK RIWHQ WKH WHUP
µHFRV\VWHP¶ LV XVHG DQG ZKLFK UHIHUV WR WKH LQWULFDWH LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV WKDW VSDQ WKHZHERI
HFRORJLFDOOLIHLQWKHHQYLURQPHQW7KHWKLUGGLPHQVLRQRIWKHV\VWHPLVWKHKXPDQGLPHQVLRQ
ZKLFK UHIHUV WR WKH KXPDQ IDFWRU LQ WKH V\VWHP DQG LQFOXGHV HFRQRPLF VRFLDO DV ZHOO DV
FXOWXUDODQGEHKDYLRXUDODVSHFWVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQDQGLWVDFWLYLWLHVLQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHD
:DUGVXJJHVWVWKDWDFDWFKPHQWDUHDKDVDIRXUGLPHQVLRQDOVWUXFWXUHZLWKFKDUDFWHULVWLFVLQORQJLWXGLQDOODWHUDO
DQGYHUWLFDOGLUHFWLRQDVZHOODVZLWKWLPH7KLVµVSDFHWLPH¶V\VWHPLVDOVRVXJJHVWHGE\%HQQHWDQG&KRUOH\
)RUDPRUHHODERUDWHGHVFULSWLRQRIFRQFHSWRIHFRV\VWHPVVHHIRUH[DPSOH-¡UJHQVHQDQG9ROOHQZHLGHU
6KHUPDQHWDO6KHUPDQDQG7KRPDQQDQG0XHOOHU
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
3UREOHPVROYLQJRULHQWHGDVVHVVPHQWSURFHVV
,($LVDFRQFHSWJHDUHGWRZDUGVILQGLQJVROXWLRQVIRUFRPSOH[SUREOHPV,QGRLQJVRLWXVHV
VWDWHRIWKHDUW LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP GLIIHUHQW VFLHQWLILF GLVFLSOLQHV EXW GRHV JHQHUDOO\ QRW
DWWHPSW DQG DFFRUGLQJ WR 7RWK DQG +L]VQ\LN VKRXOG SUREDEO\ QRW HYHQ DWWHPSW WR
JHQHUDWHQHZGLVFLSOLQDU\NQRZOHGJH5DWKHUWKHREMHFWLYHRI,($EDVHGUHVHDUFKLVWRDVVHVV
D FRPSOH[ HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHP LQ DQ HIIHFWLYH PDQQHU LQ RUGHU WR LGHQWLI\ SRVVLEOH
VROXWLRQV GULYHQ E\ D QHHG WR VXSSRUW D FHUWDLQ GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ SURFHVV 7KLV DSSURDFK LV
FRQVLVWHQWZLWK3DUVRQZKRGHILQHVWKDW
³DVVHVVPHQW LV WKH SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI NQRZOHGJH GHULYHG IURP UHVHDUFK WR KHOS VRPHRQH ZLWK
UHVSRQVLELOLWLHVHYDOXDWHSRVVLEOHDFWLRQVRUWKLQNDERXWDSUREOHP´
:LWKLQ WKLV FRQWH[W DVVHVVPHQW GRHV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PHDQ GRLQJ QHZ H[SHULPHQWDO RU
IXQGDPHQWDO GLVFLSOLQDU\ UHVHDUFK EXW UHIHUV WR WKH DVVHPEOLQJ RUJDQL]LQJ LQWHUSUHWLQJ DQG
V\QWKHVL]LQJ SLHFHV RI H[LVWLQJ NQRZOHGJH DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ :LWKLQ WKH LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\
FRQWH[WRI,($VXFKDVVHVVPHQWPD\UHTXLUHGUDZLQJFDXVDOUHODWLRQVIURPNQRZOHGJHRUGDWD
WKDW OLH RXWVLGH RI WKH VFRSH RI WKH GLVFLSOLQH WKDW JHQHUDWHG WKHP ,W PD\ DOVR UHTXLUH
FRPELQLQJGDWDDQGLQIRUPDWLRQZLWKYDU\LQJGHJUHHVRIFRQILGHQFH
,QWHJUDWLRQRIGLVFLSOLQHV
:LWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRI,($IRUDQDVVHVVPHQWWREHLQWHJUDWHGPHDQVWRDVVHPEOHDQGWRPDNH
FRKHUHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP D EURDGHU VHW RI GRPDLQV WKDQ ZRXOG W\SLFDOO\ EH SURYLGHG E\
UHVHDUFKIURPDVLQJOHGLVFLSOLQH,QRWKHUZRUGVWKHDVVHVVPHQWUHTXLUHVDQLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\
DSSURDFK$FFRUGLQJWR6FKQHLGHU
³IRUDQDVVHVVPHQWWREHµ,QWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\¶LPSOLHVDFRPELQDWLRQRIPXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\LGHDVRUPHWKRGV
WKDW SHUPLWV H[SODQDWLRQ RU DVVHVVPHQW QRW DFKLHYDEOH E\ DQ XQLQWHJUDWHG DSSOLFDWLRQ RI
PXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\LGHDVRUWRROV´
7KHUH FDQ EH GLIIHUHQW GLPHQVLRQV DQG GHJUHHV RI LQWHJUDWLRQ )LUVW RI DOO RQ WKH VFLHQWLILF
OHYHO,($LQWHJUDWHVGLVFLSOLQHVVXFKDVSK\VLFVFKHPLVWU\ELRORJ\VRFLRORJ\DQGHFRQRPLFV
$VHFRQGOHYHORILQWHJUDWLRQLVUHODWHGWRWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKDWWKHZD\KXPDQNLQGGHYHORSV
DQG DFWV LV SDUW RI WKH SUREOHP LWVHOI PDQ\ HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHPV DUH GLUHFWO\ UHODWHG WR
KXPDQDFWLYLWLHV$VDUJXHGE\*RXJKHWDO5RWPDQV7RODQG9HOOLQJD
DQG7XUQHUHWDOVFLHQWLILFDQDO\VLVVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHFRXSOHGZLWKVRFLRHFRQRPLF
DQG SROLF\ DVVHVVPHQW ,Q WKH XOWLPDWH FDVH WKHUHIRUH QRW RQO\ WKH SROLF\ PDNHUV EXW DOVR
RWKHUVWDNHKROGHUVVKRXOGEHLQYROYHGLQWKH,($SURFHVV
$VVXJJHVWHGE\*RXJKHWDO,($PD\WKXVEHGHVFULEHGDVWKHYHUWLFDOLQWHJUDWLRQRI
WKH GLIIHUHQW VWDNHKROGHUVDFWRUV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO LQWHJUDWLRQ RI GLVFLSOLQHV DQG NQRZOHGJH
VRXUFHV:KLOHWKHKRUL]RQWDOGLPHQVLRQLVPRVWO\UHODWHGWRWKHFROOHFWLRQDQGDQDO\VLVRIGDWD
WKH YHUWLFDO DVVHVVPHQW UHIHUV PRVWO\ WR D SURFHVV RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ 7KLV WZRGLPHQVLRQDO
DSSURDFKLVVFKHPDWLFDOO\SUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH
&KDSWHU
6WDNHKROGHUVDFWRUSROLF\
PDNHUVFLWL]HQVLQGXVWULDOV
1*2VHWFLQWHJUDWLRQ
,QWHJUDWLRQRIGLVFLSOLQHV
HFRQRPLFVHFRORJ\SK\VLFDO
VFLHQFHVHWF
• )LJXUH 9HUWLFDODQGKRUL]RQWDOLQWHJUDWLRQLQ,($DIWHU*RXJKHWDO
7KHIRFXVRIWKLVWKHVLVLVRQWKHKRUL]RQWDOD[HVLQSDUWLFXODUWKHOLQNEHWZHHQVRFLRHFRQRPLF
DVSHFWVŠ HJ SRSXODWLRQJURZWKLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQDQGDJULFXOWXUDOGHYHORSPHQWŠDQGWKH
HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ SUREOHP ,W IXUWKHUPRUH LQYHVWLJDWHV WKH LPSDFW RI HQYLURQPHQWDO
SROOXWLRQ RQ WKH VDPH VRFLHW\ WKDW RIWHQ FDXVHV LW ,W GRHV KRZHYHU QRW FRQVLGHU WKH VRFLDO
FXOWXUDODQGSROLWLFDODVSHFWVRIVXFKVRFLRHFRQRPLFWUHQGVDQGLPSDFWV$OWKRXJKGLVFXVVLRQV
ZLWK VWDNHKROGHUV SROLF\ DGYLVRUV LQGXVWULDOV 1*2V FLWL]HQV IRUPHG SDUW RI WKH UHVHDUFK
VXFKLQWHUDFWLRQZDVPHUHO\UHVWULFWHGWRGDWDFROOHFWLRQDQGLQFDVHVWKHFROOHFWLRQRIRSLQLRQV
UDWKHUWKDQDIRUPDOVRFLDODVVHVVPHQW
6HFWLRQ SUHVHQWV DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKH ,($ SURFHVV DQG WRROV 6HFWLRQ SURYLGHV
PRUHRYHUDSHUVSHFWLYHRQ,($ZLWKLQWKHVSHFLILFFRQWH[WRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQDVVHVVPHQW
,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWSURFHVVDQGWRROV
,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQ,($DVDSURFHVVDQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWDQGXVHRIPRGHOV
DQGPHWKRGVDVDWRROIRUH[HFXWLQJDQ,($$FFRUGLQJWR0LVHUDQG4XDGH,($LQ
LWVHOILVQRWDPHWKRGRUWHFKQLTXHQRULVLWDIL[HGVHWRIWRROVUDWKHULWLVDQDSSURDFKDZD\
RI ORRNLQJ DW D SUREOHP DQG EULQJLQJ VFLHQWLILF NQRZOHGJH DQG WKRXJKW WR EHDU RQ LW
1HYHUWKHOHVV +RUGLMN FRQFOXGHV WKDW PXFK OLWHUDWXUH RQ ,($ GRHV QRW VHHP WR
GLIIHUHQWLDWHEHWZHHQWKHSURFHVVDQGWRROVDVWZRGLVWLQJXLVKDEOHDVSHFWVRI,($
7R VWDUW ZLWK WKH SURFHVV OHYHO WKHUH LV QR FRQVHQVXV RQ WKH DFWLYLWLHV WR EH XQGHUWDNHQ WR
FRQGXFWDJRRG,($$FFRUGLQJWR)LQGHLVHQDQG4XDGH,($OLNHDOOVFLHQFHLVDFUDIW
DQG WKH ZD\ WKDW ,($ VWXGLHV DUH RUJDQLVHG GHSHQGV RQ PDQ\ FKRLFHV PDGH E\ WKH DQDO\VW
RIWHQ EDVHG RQ OLWWOH PRUH WKDQ SURIHVVLRQDO H[SHULHQFH DQG LQIRUPHG LQWXLWLRQ 7KHUH DUH
FRQVHTXHQWO\ODUJHGLIIHUHQFHVLQ,($SURFHVVHVSUHVHQWHGE\YDULRXVDXWKRUV
1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH WKUHH PDLQ VWDJHV RI ,($ SURFHVVHV WKDW FDQ EH GLVWLQJXLVKHG DV
VFKHPDWLFDOO\SUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUHDUH
)RUH[DPSOHVRI,($SURFHVVGHVFULSWLRQVVHHHJ&RKHQ)LQGHLVHQDQG4XDGH+RUGLMNHWDO
,&,6/XLWHQ5RWPDQV5RWPDQVDQG9DQ$VVHOWDQG7RODQG9HOOLQJD
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
DSUREOHPIRUPXODWLRQVWDJHZKLFKLQFOXGHVDGHILQLWLRQRIWKHSUREOHPWKH
REMHFWLYHVRIWKHDQDO\VLVLWVERXQGDULHVDQGFRQVWUDLQWVDQGSRVVLEO\FULWHULD
IRUHYDOXDWLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHV
D UHVHDUFK DQG DVVHVVPHQW VWDJH ZKLFK LQFOXGHV LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VFHQDULRV
DQG DOWHUQDWLYHV DQG DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH V\VWHP LWVHOI 7KLV VWDJH RIWHQ
FRQFHUQVWKHGHYHORSPHQWDQGDSSOLFDWLRQRIPRGHOV
DQ HYDOXDWLRQ DQG SUHVHQWDWLRQ VWDJH ZKLFK LQFOXGHV DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH
FRQVHTXHQFHV RI GLIIHUHQW ILQGLQJV DQG VFHQDULRV DV ZHOO DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI
UHOLDELOLW\RIUHVXOWV
7KHDFWXDOSURFHVVPD\LQYROYHDODUJHQXPEHURIVSHFLILFDFWLYLWLHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHW\SH
DQGFRQWH[WRIWKHSUREOHPWKHDSSURDFKWDNHQDQGWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHYDULRXVSDUWLFLSDQWV
LQWKHDVVHVVPHQW7KHWKUHHVWHSSHGVWUXFWXUHLQ)LJXUHLVWKHUHIRUHRQO\LOOXVWUDWLYHWRWKH
SURFHVVLQWKDWLWLGHQWLILHVLWVPDLQFRPSRQHQWV$VVXFKLWIRUPVWKHEDVLVIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQW
RIWKHFDVHVWXGLHVSUHVHQWHGLQFKDSWHUVDQG
7KHUH DUH D ODUJH QXPEHU RI QXDQFHV WR WKH JHQHUDO WKUHHVWHS DSSURDFK )RU H[DPSOH
)LQGHLVHQ DQG 4XDGH VXEGLYLGH VWDJH ,, RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW LQWR WKUHH FRPSRQHQWV
LQFOXGLQJLLGHQWLI\LQJGHVLJQLQJDQGVFUHHQLQJSRVVLEOHDOWHUQDWLYHVLLIRUHFDVWLQJIXWXUH
FRQWH[WVRUVWDWHVDQGLLLEXLOGLQJDQGXVLQJPRGHOVIRUSUHGLFWLQJUHVXOWV7KH\DOVRDUJXH
WKDWPDQ\,($VLQYROYHLWHUDWLRQVWHSVSUHOLPLQDU\UHVXOWVPD\IRUFHWKHDQDO\VWWRDOWHULQLWLDO
DVVXPSWLRQVUHYLVHHDUOLHUZRUNRUFROOHFWPRUHGDWD2WKHUVDUJXHWKHQHHGWRLQFOXGHVSHFLILF
VWHSV RI VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV DQG YDOLGDWLRQ RI GDWD DQG UHVXOWV VHH HJ +RUGLMN HW DO ,&,6 /XLWHQ 5RWPDQV 5RWPDQV DQG 9DQ $VVHOW RU VWHSV IRU
SDUWLFLSDWLRQRIVWDNHKROGHUVDQGSROLF\PDNHUVVHHHJ&RKHQ5RWPDQV
'HILQLQJ
ERXQGDULHV
DQGFRQVWUDLQWV
,GHQWLI\LQJ
GHVLJQLQJDQG
VFUHHQLQJ
3UREOHP
IRUPXODWLRQ
'HILQLQJ
REMHFWLYHVRI
DQDO\VLV
'HILQLQJ
FULWHULDIRU
HYDOXDWLRQ
%XLOGLQJ
DQGXVLQJ
PRGHOV
5HVHDUFKDQG
$VVHVVPHQW
)RUHFDVWLQJ
IXWXUHFRQWH[WV
RUVWDWHV
9DOLGDWLRQ
RIGDWDDQG
UHVXOWV
(YDOXDWLRQDQG
3UHVHQWDWLRQ
&RPSDULQJ
DQGUDQNLQJ
DOWHUQDWLYHV
&RPPXQLFDWLQ
JUHVXOWV
• )LJXUH 7KH,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWSURFHVV
&KDSWHU
$WILUVWVLJKWIURP)LJXUHWKH,($SURFHVVGRHVQRWVHHPHVVHQWLDOO\GLIIHUHQWIURPRWKHU
UHVHDUFKSURFHVVHV$QLPSRUWDQWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQFRPPRQGLVFLSOLQDU\VFLHQWLILFUHVHDUFK
DQG ,($ LV KRZHYHU WKH SUREOHP VROYLQJ GHFLVLRQ VXSSRUWGHVLJQ RULHQWHG QDWXUH RI ,($
VHFWLRQ 1RW RQO\ GRHV WKLV GLIIHUHQFH LQ IRFXV LPSDFW WKH ZD\ LQ ZKLFK UHVHDUFK LV
FRQGXFWHG LW KDV DOVR FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU WKH WRROV PHWKRGV PRGHOV DSSOLHG WR H[HFXWH WKH
UHVHDUFK:LWKUHJDUGWRVXFKWRROV5RWPDQVGLVWLQJXLVKHVWZRW\SHV
$QDO\WLFDOPHWKRGV±RIWHQURRWHGLQWKHQDWXUDOVFLHQFHV
3DUWLFLSDWRU\ PHWKRGV Š DOVR ODEHOOHG DV LQWHUDFWLYH GHOLEHUDWLYH RU
FRPPXQLFDWLYHŠVWHPPLQJIURPVRFLDOVFLHQFHV
7KH WZR FDWHJRULHV FRUUHVSRQG WR WKH WZRGLPHQVLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ LQ ,($ DV SUHVHQWHG LQ
)LJXUHSDJH7KHILUVWFDWHJRU\DQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGVUHIHUVWRWRROVVXFKDVPRGHOV
IXQFWLRQDQDO\VLVOLIHF\FOHDQDO\VLVFRVWEHQHILWDQDO\VLVDQGVFHQDULRDQDO\VLV7KHVHFRQG
FDWHJRU\ SDUWLFLSDWRU\ PHWKRGV UHIHUV WR WRROV RIWHQ XVHG LQ VRFLDO VFLHQFHV VXFK DV
VWDNHKROGHU LGHQWLILFDWLRQ TXHVWLRQQDLUHV DQG LQWHUYLHZV ZRUNVKRSV DQG JURXS GLVFXVVLRQV
7KHXOWLPDWHVHOHFWLRQRIWRROVIRU,($GHSHQGVRQWKHW\SHRISUREOHPDQGWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH
DVVHVVPHQW DQG PD\ LQYROYH RQH RU PRUH LGHDOO\ D FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKH WZR W\SHV WRROV
([DPSOHVRIFRPELQHGDSSURDFKHVDUHWKH5$,16SURMHFW+RUGLMNDQGWKH9,6,216
DQG7$5*(76SURMHFWV5RWPDQV
$V GLVFXVVHG LQ VHFWLRQ WKH UHVHDUFK SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV IRFXVHV RQ WKH DQDO\WLFDO
DVSHFWVRI,($8VLQJDIUDPHZRUNSUHVHQWHGE\7RWKDQG+L]VQ\LNWKUHHERGLHVRI
VXEVWDQWLYH DQG PHWKRGRORJLFDO NQRZOHGJH DSSOLHG LQ VXFK µDQDO\WLFDO¶ ,($ FDQ EH
GLVWLQJXLVKHGDVSRUWUD\HGLQ)LJXUH7KHVFKHPHLPSOLHVDWZROHYHOVWUXFWXUH7KHEDVH
OHYHO GLVWLQJXLVKHV SULPDU\ GLVFLSOLQDU\ HOHPHQWV DQG LQWHJUDWLRQ WRROV 7KH XSSHUOHYHO
FRQFHUQVWKH,($IUDPHZRUNWKDWGUDZVRQERWKJURXSVRISULPDU\WRROV:LWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRI
WKLVWKHVLVWKLVXSSHUOHYHOIUDPHZRUNFRQFHUQVWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQ
7KHNH\EDVHOHYHOWRROVDSSOLHGLQWKLVUHVHDUFKDUHGHVFULEHGLQVHFWLRQVWR
,($)UDPHZRUN
'36,5
3ULPDU\GLVFLSOLQDU\WRROV
3ULPDU\,QWHJUDWLRQWRROV
0RGHOVDVVHVVPHQW
PHWKRGVFRQFHSWVDQG
WKHRULHV
6FHQDULRDQDO\VLVSROLF\
DQDO\VLVXQFHUWDLQW\
DQDO\VLV
• )LJXUH 6WUXFWXUHRIWKH,($PHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNDGDSWHGIURP7RWKDQG+L]VQ\LN
µ0RGHOV¶DUHGHILQHGDVIRUPXODWLRQVJHQHUDOO\PDWKHPDWLFDOWKDWVHHNWRUHSUHVHQWDSRUWLRQRIWKHUHDOZRUOG
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
:LWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI ,($ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DVVHVVPHQW WRROV VXFK DV PRGHOV LV QRW D
SXUSRVHLQLWVHOIEXWSXUHO\DPHDQVWRDFKLHYHWKHRYHUKDXOLQJSUREOHPVROYLQJREMHFWLYH,Q
WKHLUUHYLHZRI,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWPRGHOV$($7HFKQRORJ\VWDWHV
WKDWWKHSXUSRVHRI,($VLVWRVROYHDSUREOHPZLWKLQFRQVWUDLQWVRIWLPHDQGPRQH\7KHVH
FRQVWUDLQWVZLOOGHWHUPLQHWKHGHJUHHRIVRSKLVWLFDWLRQUHTXLUHG+LJKOHYHOVRIVRSKLVWLFDWLRQ
PD\ZHOOEHXQQHFHVVDU\WRVROYHWKHSUREOHPZKLOHFRQVXPLQJUHVRXUFHV
7KHFRPSOH[LW\RIPRGHOVDQGRWKHUPHWKRGVDSSOLHGLQ,($VKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHDGDSWHGWRWKH
FRQWH[WRIWKHSUREOHPVXFKDVWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHV$FFRUGLQJWR5RWPDQV
SDVWGHFDGHVRI,($PRGHOEXLOGLQJKDYHVKRZQWKDWVPDOODQGWUDQVSDUHQWPRGHOVDUH
RIWHQ VXSHULRU WR ODUJH PRGHOV LQ WKDW WKH\ SURYLGH VLPLODU UHVXOWV DQG DUH HDVLHU WR XVH
0RUHRYHUWKHPRUHFRPSOLFDWHGWKHPRGHOWKHKLJKHUWKHULVNRIHUURUVDQGEXJV2YHUYLHZV
RIPRGHOVDQGRWKHUWRROVIRU,($DUHDPRQJRWKHUVSUHVHQWHGE\$($7HFKQRORJ\
+DUULV +RUGLMN .ZD DQG 'UHVHQ /XLWHQ 3DUNHU HW DO 5RWPDQVDQG7RWKDQG+L]VQ\LN
,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWDVDFRQFHSWIRU,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW
,($LVDIUDPHZRUNDSSOLFDEOHWRDZLGHUDQJHRISUREOHPV$VDUJXHGE\,&,6,($DV
DQ LQWXLWLYH SURFHVV LV DFWXDOO\ QRW QHZ ,($OLNH DSSURDFKHV PXVW KDYH EHHQ DSSOLHG
WKRXVDQGVRI\HDUVDJRZKHQ(J\SWLDQIDUPHUVGHYHORSHGDGYDQFHGWHFKQLTXHVIRULQWHJUDWHG
ODQG PDQDJHPHQW FRPELQLQJ LQJHQLRXV DJULFXOWXUDO WHFKQLTXHV DQG LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHPV ZLWK
LQYHQWLYH ZHDWKHU IRUHFDVWLQJ WHFKQLTXHV $FFRUGLQJ WR 3DUVRQ DQ HDUO\ ,($ WUXO\
UHFRJQL]HG DV VXFK LV WKH &OLPDWLF ,PSDFW $VVHVVPHQW3URJUDP&,$3ZKLFKLQYHVWLJDWHG
SRWHQWLDO DWPRVSKHULF LPSDFWV RI WKH 86 VXSHUVRQLF WUDQVSRUW DLUFUDIW LQ WKH HDUO\ V $V
DUJXHGE\+RUGLMNDQRWKHUKLJKSURILOHDSSOLFDWLRQLVWKHFRQWURORIDFLGSUHFLSLWDWLRQ
LQ(XURSH1RZDGD\V,($LVXVHGLQDZLGHUDQJHRIFRQWH[WV$QDUHDZKHUH,($KDVEHHQ
ZLGHO\DSSOLHGLVWKHJOREDOFKDQJHDUHQDZKHUHLWHPHUJHGDVDQHZILHOGLQUHVHDUFKEHFDXVH
WKH WUDGLWLRQDO GLVFLSOLQDU\ DSSURDFK ZDV QRW DEOH WR PHHW WKH FKDOOHQJH RI DGHTXDWHO\
FKDUDFWHUL]LQJWKHFRPSOH[LQWHUDFWLRQVDPRQJWKHYDULRXVIDFHWVRIJOREDOFKDQJH
:LWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQDVVHVVPHQWH[DPSOHVRI,($DSSURDFKHVDUHKRZHYHU
VWLOOOLPLWHG$OWKRXJKWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKDWZDWHUUHVRXUFHVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGDVDV\VWHP
KDV EHHQ ORQJ H[LVWLQJ UHVHDUFK IUDPHZRUNV DSSOLHG IRU ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ VWXGLHV DUH PRVWO\
FRQILQHG WR GLVFLSOLQDULO\ SK\VLFV FKHPLVWU\ HFRORJ\ UHVWULFWHG DSSURDFKHV ([DPSOHV RI
,($ DSSURDFKHV LQ ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW DUH FRQVHTXHQWO\ OLPLWHG $PRQJ VXFK
H[DPSOHV DUH WKRVH SUHVHQWHG E\ &RJQHWWL +DUUHPRsV 0HH DQG %OR[KDP
7XUQHUHWDODQG7XUQHU
7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQV VHHN WR GHPRQVWUDWH WKH SRWHQWLDO YDOXH RI ,($ DSSURDFKHV LQ ZDWHU
SROOXWLRQSUREOHPVLQJHQHUDODQGWKHFRQGLWLRQVRIVXFKUHVHDUFKLQGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRU
VLWXDWLRQVLQSDUWLFXODU7RGRVRWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIVXFKUHVHDUFKFDVHVDUHGLVFXVVHGZLWKLQ
WKHFRQWH[WRIWKHPDLQHOHPHQWVRI,($DVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQ
)RUGLVFXVVLRQVRQWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRI,($WRJOREDOFKDQJHSUREOHPVVHHIRUH[DPSOH'RZODWDEDGL*RXJKHWDO
5LVEH\HWDO5RWPDQV6KDFNOH\DQG:\QQH
&KDSWHU
6\VWHPVDSSURDFK:DWHUERGLHVDVV\VWHPV
7KH WKUHH GLPHQVLRQV SK\VLFDO HFRORJLFDO DQG KXPDQ RI ZDWHU V\VWHPV FDQ EH FOHDUO\
LGHQWLILHG )LUVWO\ WKHLU SK\VLFDO GLPHQVLRQ LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKHLU FDWFKPHQWDUHDZKLFKDV
GHILQHG E\ +XWFKNLQVRQ LV WKH WRWDO DUHD RI ODQG IURP ZKLFK D VXUIDFH ZDWHU ERG\
ULYHUODNHODJRRQVHDHWFUHFHLYHVLWVZDWHUDQGZKLFKERXQGDULHVDUHWKHUHZLWKQDWXUDOO\
GHPDUFDWHGE\WKHSRLQWVRIKLJKHVWDOWLWXGHLQWKHVXUURXQGLQJODQGVFDSH7KHFDWFKPHQWDUHD
HQFRPSDVVHV WKH HQWLUH K\GURORJLFDO F\FOH LQFOXGLQJ DWPRVSKHULF ZDWHU VXEVXUIDFH ZDWHU
VXUIDFHZDWHUWKHHVWXDULQH]RQHDQGWKHFRDVWDOPDULQH]RQH
'XHWRWKHLQWHUFRQQHFWLYLW\RIGLIIHUHQWSDUWVRIDZDWHUV\VWHPDFWLYLWLHVLQRQHSDUWRIWKH
V\VWHP ZLOO KDYH LPSDFW RQ RWKHU SDUWV 3RWHQWLDO FRQIOLFWV EHWZHHQ XVHUV DQG DFWLYLWLHV LQ
GLIIHUHQW SDUWV RI D ZDWHU V\VWHP ULYHU EDVLQ ODNH FRDVWDO ]RQH DUH WKHUHIRUH DPSOH 7KH
VLWXDWLRQLVSDUWLFXODUO\FRPSOH[LQWKHFDVHRILQWHUQDWLRQDOZDWHUVZKHUHVXFKFRQIOLFWVDUH
DQGKDYHEHHQWKHFDXVHRILQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQIOLFWVDQGHYHQZDUV$VDUJXHGE\-¡UJHQVHQHW
DO6KHUPDQ6KHUPDQHWDODQG:DOPVOH\WKHRIWHQODUJHH[WHQW
RIFDWFKPHQWDUHDVWKHUHIRUHFRPSHOVDUHJLRQDOUDWKHUWKDQDORFDODSSURDFKWDNLQJDFFRXQWRI
WKHSK\VLFDOERXQGDULHVRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPLWVHOI
)XUWKHUPRUHWKHHFRV\VWHPRIZDWHUERGLHVDVWKHEDVLFIXQFWLRQDOXQLWLQHFRORJ\LVRIWHQD
FRPSOH[ V\VWHP ERWK LQ WHUPV RI VWUXFWXUH DQG LQ IXQFWLRQ DQG FRQVLVWV RI ERWK ELRWLF DQG
DELRWLF FRPSRQHQWV %R[ SURYLGHV DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKH LQWHUQDO VWUXFWXUH DQG SURFHVVHV RI
DTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPV$OWKRXJKWKHWHUPHFRV\VWHPZDVSUREDEO\ILUVWSURSRVHGE\WKH%ULWLVK
HFRORJLVW 7DQVOH\ WKH LGHD WKDW DTXDWLF HFRORJLFDO UHVRXUFHV VKRXOG EH UHJDUGHG DV D
V\VWHPLVPXFKROGHUVHHHJ)RUEHVDQGLWLVQRZDGD\VDJHQHUDOO\DFFHSWHGFRQFHSW
LQZDWHUUHVRXUFHVPDQDJHPHQW
$VVXJJHVWHGE\6ZDUWHWDOWKHKXPDQGLPHQVLRQRIZDWHUERGLHVFDQEHVXEGLYLGHG
LQWRDVRFLDOVXEV\VWHPŠFRQFHUQLQJGHPRJUDSKLFVKHDOWKHGXFDWLRQJHQGHULVVXHVŠDQG
DQHFRQRPLFVXEV\VWHPŠFRQFHUQLQJSURGXFWLRQFRQVXPSWLRQDQGWUDGHHQHUJ\DQGKXPDQ
ODERXUFDSLWDODQGQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHV7KHVRFLDOVXEV\VWHPGHOLYHUVODERXUWRWKHHFRQRPLF
VXEV\VWHPZKLFKLQWXUQSURYLGHVJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHV
+HQFHWKHWKUHHGLPHQVLRQVRIZDWHUV\VWHPVFDQEHSUHVHQWHGDVLQ)LJXUH:LWKLQWKH
ERXQGDULHVRIWKHSK\VLFDOV\VWHPRUFDWFKPHQWDUHDWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPVPDQLIHVWLQ
DQ LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH KXPDQ V\VWHP DQG WKH HFRORJLFDO V\VWHP 3ROOXWLRQ H[SORLWDWLRQ
DQGUHVWUXFWXULQJRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWSXWSUHVVXUHRQWKHHFRORJLFDOV\VWHPZKLFKUHVXOWVLQ
FKDQJHV LQ LWV VWDWH RU FRQGLWLRQ DQG LQ WXUQ LPSDFW WKH KXPDQ V\VWHP WKURXJK ORVV RU
GHJHQHUDWLRQRIUHVRXUFHVDQGVHUYLFHVDYDLODEOHIURPWKHHFRORJLFDOV\VWHP([DPSOHVRIVXFK
UHVRXUFHVDQGVHUYLFHVDUH
S3URGXFWLRQRIGULQNLQJZDWHU
S3URGXFWLRQRILQGXVWULDOZDWHU
S,UULJDWLRQZDWHUDQGDTXDFXOWXUH
S7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ
S5HFUHDWLRQ
S)LVKHU\
S%LRGLYHUVLW\
S'LVFKDUJHRIZDVWHZDWHU
)RUH[DPSOHVRIVXFKVLWXDWLRQVVHH'H6R\DDQG*OHGLWVFK+DUULVDQG:RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
• %R[ ,QWHUQDOVWUXFWXUHDQGSURFHVVHVRIDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPV$GDSWHGIURP-¡UJHQVHQDQG
9ROOHQZHLGHU
6WUXFWXUH
$ELRWLFFRPSRQHQWV
4 $ELRWLFFRPSRQHQWVLQYROYHGLQPDWHULDOF\FOHV
S ,RQLFFRPSRVLWLRQRIVXUIDFHZDWHUVGRPLQDWHGE\IRXUPDMRUFDWLRQV&D 0J1DDQG.
DQGDQLRQV+&2&262DQG&OZKLFKFRQVWLWXWHWKHWRWDOLRQLFVDOLQLW\RIVXUIDFHZDWHUV
S 1XWULHQWVDQGWUDFHHOHPHQWVVLJQLILFDQWIRUWKHELRWLFSURGXFWLYLW\3DQG1DUHXVXDOO\
FRQVLGHUHGWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWQXWULHQWVZKHUH3LVPRVWO\OLPLWLQJLQIUHVKZDWHUV\VWHPVDQG1
LQPDULQHZDWHUV$SDUWIURPQXWULHQWVQXPHURXVWUDFHHOHPHQWVHJLURQPDQJDQHVH
PRO\EGHQXP]LQFDUHLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUVIRUELRWLFSURGXFWLYLW\
4 2UJDQLFFRPSRQHQWVVXFKDVFDUERK\GUDWHVSURWHLQVKXPLFVXEVWDQFHVSLJPHQWVDQGYLWDPLQV
FRPSULVHWKHPDMRURUJDQLFFRPSRQHQWVRIDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPV7KH\DUHPDLQO\SURGXFHGE\
PHWDEROLFSURFHVVHVZLWKLQFHOOVDQGFDQSOD\DQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQWKHDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPDVH[WUD
FHOOXODUGLVVROYHGRUJDQLFPDWWHU'20
%LRWLFFRPSRQHQWV
4 3URGXFHUVDXWRWURSKLFSK\WRSODQNWRQDQGKLJKHUSODQWVPDFURSK\WHVSURGXFHELRPDVVIURPVLPSOH
LQRUJDQLFVXEVWDQFHV
4 0DFURFRQVXPHUV±]RRSODQNWRQDQGILVKIHHGRQRWKHURUJDQLVPVRUSDUWLFXODWHRUJDQLFPDWWHU
GHWULWXV
4 0LFURFRQVXPHUV±KHWHURWURSKLFRUJDQLVPVPDLQO\EDFWHULDDQGIXQJLDUHUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKH
GHJUDGDWLRQRISDUWLFXODWHRUGLVVROYHGRUJDQLFVXEVWUDWHSURGXFHGE\DXWRWURS KLFSURFHVVHVRUFRPLQJ
IURPDOORFKWRQRXVVRXUFHV
$WPRVSKHULFQXWULHQWV
,QWHUQDOSURFHVVHV
1LWURJHQIL[DWLRQ
4 (QHUJ\FLUFXLWV±DOOOLIHSURFHVVHV
DUHDFFRPSDQLHGE\HQHUJ\
WUDQVIHUV
3URGXFHUV
DXWRWURSKLF
SK\WRSODQNWRQDQG
PDFURSK\WHV
4 1XWULHQWF\FOHV±ELRFKHPLFDO
F\FOHVRIWKHPDMRUQXWULHQWV
*UD]LQJ
0DFURFRQVXPHUV
]RRSODQNWRQDQG
ILVK
*UD]LQJ
0RUWDOLW\
4 3URGXFWLYLW\±RIWKHRUJDQLVPVLQ
VSDFHDQGWLPH
0LFURFRQVXPHUV
KHWHURWURSKLF
RUJDQLVPV
1XWULHQW
8SWDNH
4 )RRGFKDLQV±JUD]LQJIRRGFKDLQ
DQGGHWULWXVIRRGFKDLQ
*UD]LQJ
([FUHWLRQ
/RVV
GHQLWULILFDWLRQ
([FUHWLRQ
'LVVROYHG2UJDQLF0DWWHUFRQWDLQV
QXWULHQWV
4 &RQWURO±F\EHUQDWLFVUHJXODWLRQRI
PHWDEROLVP
0LQHUDOL]DWLRQ
5HVXVSHQVLRQ
7KHPRVWQRWDEOHLQWHUQDOHFRV\VWHP
SURFHVVHVDUHWKHELRFKHPLFDOF\FOHVRI
QXWULHQWVDVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUHZKLFK
FOHDUO\VKRZVWKHFRPSOH[LW\RIWKHV\VWHP
DQGLWVLQWHUDFWLRQVZLWKWKHHQYLURQPHQW
,QRUJDQLFQXWULHQWV
0LQHUDOL]DWLRQ
6HGLPHQWDWLRQ
$GVRUSWLRQ
%HQWKLFQXWULHQWV
6HGLPHQWVXEV\VWHP
• )LJXUH %LRFKHPLFDOLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQQXWULHQWVDQG
ELRWLFFRPSRQHQWVLQDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPV
&KDSWHU
7KH DVVHVVPHQW RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ SUREOHPV GHPDQGV WKXV D FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI WKH V\VWHPV
QDWXUH RI ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH SK\VLFDO HFRORJLFDO DQG KXPDQ GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH
ZDWHUV\VWHP
3K\VLFDOV\VWHPFDWFKPHQWDUHD
+XPDQV\VWHP
(FRORJLFDOV\VWHP
3UHVVXUH
/DERXU
*RRGVDQG
VHUYLFHV
(FRQRPLFVXEV\VWHP
3ROOXWLRQH[SORLWDWLRQ
DQGUHVWUXFWXULQJ
6RFLDOVXEV\VWHP
$ELRWLFFRPSRQHQWV
6WDWH
FKDQJHV
5HVRXUFHVDQG
VHUYLFHV
%LRWLFFRPSRQHQWV
,PSDFWV
• )LJXUH :DWHUERGLHVDVDSK\VLFDOKXPDQDQGHFRORJLFDOV\VWHPV$GDSWHGDIWHU6ZDUWHW
DO
3UREOHPVROYLQJRULHQWHGDVVHVVPHQWSURFHVV$VVHVVPHQWXQGHUGDWD
OLPLWDWLRQVDQGXQFHUWDLQWLHV
7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI D UHOLDEOH SURJQRVWLF DQDO\WLFDO WRRO IRU WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI ZDWHU
UHVRXUFHV TXDOLW\ SRVHV D IRUPLGDEOH WDVN QRW RQO\ LQ WHUPV RI GDWD UHTXLUHPHQWV EXW DOVR
EHFDXVH RI WKH LQWHJUDWLRQ SUREOHP LQYROYLQJ GDWD WKDW GLIIHUV LQ IRUP DQG LQ VSDWLDO DQG
WHPSRUDOVFDOH,QFDVHVVXFKDV/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDGDWDRQHQYLURQPHQWDO
SROOXWLRQLVYHU\OLPLWHG0RUHRYHUWKHPHDQVNQRZOHGJHDQGUHVRXUFHVWRPRQLWRUDQGDVVHVV
WKH QDWXUH DQG FDXVHV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ LQ RUGHU WR FRPH XS ZLWK VXVWDLQDEOH
VWUDWHJLHVIRULPSURYHPHQWDUHYHU\UHVWULFWHG
,Q VXFK GDWD DQG UHVRXUFH SRRU VLWXDWLRQV DQ LPSRUWDQW FKDOOHQJH LV WR H[SORUH DQG GHYHORS
DSSURDFKHVLQVXFKDZD\WKDWRQWKHEDVLVRIOLPLWHGGDWDDQGLQIRUPDWLRQWKHZDWHUSROOXWLRQ
SUREOHPFDQEHDGHTXDWHO\DVVHVVHG7KHDSSOLHGDSSURDFKHVDQGPHWKRGVPXVWIRUWKLVUHDVRQ
EH UREXVW HQRXJK WR HQVXUH DSSOLFDELOLW\ XQGHU VXFK GDWD SRRU VLWXDWLRQ ZKLOH JXDUDQWHHLQJ
VXIILFLHQWGHWDLODQGUHOLDELOLW\RIUHVXOWV7KLVUHTXLUHVDV\VWHPDWLFDQDO\VLVRIDYDLODEOHGDWD
DQGLQIRUPDWLRQIURPYDULRXVGLVFLSOLQHVDQGYDULRXVGHJUHHVRIFRQILGHQFHLQDQDWWHPSWWR
GHYHORSFDXVDOUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQYDULRXVDVSHFWV,QGRLQJVRLWLVQRWWKHGHYHORSPHQWRID
IXQGDPHQWDO XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH V\VWHP WKDW LV WKH FHQWUDO REMHFWLYH EXW UDWKHU WKH
GHYHORSPHQWRIVROXWLRQVIRUWKHSROOXWLRQSUREOHP,QRWKHUZRUGVDSUREOHPVROYLQJRULHQWHG
DVVHVVPHQWDSSURDFKLVUHTXLUHG
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
,QWHJUDWLRQRIGLVFLSOLQHV:DWHUSROOXWLRQDVDQLQWHJUDWHGSUREOHP
7KHUH LV D JURZLQJ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ DPRQJ VFLHQWLVWV DQG PDQDJHUV DOLNH RI WKH FRPSOLFDWHG
QDWXUHRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPV7KHDWWHQWLRQSDUWLFXODUO\IRFXVHVRQWKHUHODWLRQVRFLHW\
HQYLURQPHQWEDVHGXSRQWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKDWPRVWZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPVDUHUHODWHGWR
DQWKURSRJHQLF DFWLYLWLHV DQG WKDW WKRVH HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHPV LQ WXUQ KDYH WKHLULPSDFWRQ
VRFLHW\ 7KHUHIRUH LQ RUGHU WR DGHTXDWHO\ DVVHVV D ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ SUREOHP WKH XQGHUO\LQJ
VRFLRHFRQRPLF FDXVHV DQG HIIHFWV VKRXOG EH WDNHQ LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ )RU WKLV UHDVRQ WKH
DVVHVVPHQW RI HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ UHTXLUHV DQ LQWHJUDWHG DSSURDFK $Q LPSRUWDQW
FKDOOHQJH RI UHVHDUFK RQ WKH SROOXWLRQ RI ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV LV WKHUHIRUH WKH PXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\
FKDUDFWHURIWKHDSSURDFKHVUHTXLUHGIRUWKHLQWHJUDWHGDQDO\VLVRIWKHFDVHV,QWKLVUHVSHFWD
QXPEHURINH\GLVFLSOLQHVPD\EHGLVWLQJXLVKHG
x 7KHSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDODVSHFWVRIWKHSROOXWDQWVHIIHFWVDQGEHKDYLRXULQWKHZDWHU
V\VWHP
x 7KH VRFLRHFRQRPLF DVSHFWV RI WKH DQWKURSRJHQLF DFWLYLWLHV WKDW OHDG WR SROOXWDQW
GLVFKDUJHDVZHOODVRIWKHHIIHFWVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQRQVRFLRHFRQRPLF
XVHVDQGDFWLYLWLHV
x 7KHVDQLWDU\DQGKHDOWKDVSHFWVRIWKHHIIHFWVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQRIZDWHU
V\VWHPV
x 7KH HFRORJLFDO DVSHFWV RI WKH HIIHFWV RI SROOXWDQWV RQ WKH HFRV\VWHP DQG LWV
IXQFWLRQV
x 7KHPDWKHPDWLFDODVSHFWVRIPRGHOOLQJDQGGDWDVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLV
x 7KHWHFKQRORJLFDODVSHFWVRIHQJLQHHULQJVROXWLRQVWRZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPV
$SDUWIURPWKHVHµWHFKQLFDO¶GLVFLSOLQHVWKHµVRFLRFXOWXUDO¶DVSHFWVRIWKHUHVHDUFKVKRXOGQRW
EH RYHUORRNHG )LHOG UHVHDUFK DQG GDWD FROOHFWLRQLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLVRIWHQDGLIILFXOW
DQGODERXULQWHQVLYHSURFHVV,QIRUPDWLRQLVIUHTXHQWO\QRWZHOOGRFXPHQWHGDQGSXEOLVKHGDV
DUHVXOWRIZKLFKWKHµKXPDQLQWHUDFWLRQ¶SURFHVVRIWKHILHOGZRUNEHFRPHVYHU\LPSRUWDQW$V
DUHVXOWRIFXOWXUDOO\LQGXFHGFRPSOLFDWLRQVLQWKLVLQWHUDFWLRQSURFHVVWUDFLQJDQGREWDLQLQJ
GDWDKDVSUREDEO\EHHQWKHPRVWWHGLRXVDQGFKDOOHQJLQJSDUWRIWKLVUHVHDUFK
6FLHQWLILFUHOHYDQFHRI,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW
:KDWPD\EHWKHUROHRIVFLHQWLVWVLQSURYLGLQJVROXWLRQVIRUWKHJRYHUQDQFHRIZDWHUUHVRXUFHV
VXFKDV/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD"
)LQGLQJ VROXWLRQV IRU WKH FDVHV VXFK DV /DNH 9LFWRULD DQG WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD UHTXLUHV D
WKRURXJKXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVDQGSURFHVVHVDW
LWVEDVLVDQGPRUHLPSRUWDQWO\WKHLULQWHUDFWLRQ6XFKXQGHUVWDQGLQJFDQQRWEHDFKLHYHGE\
LVRODWHG GLVFLSOLQDU\ UHVHDUFK EXW UHTXLUHV D PRUH KROLVWLF DSSURDFK 7KH IXQGDPHQWDO
FKDOOHQJHWKHGULYLQJIRUFHIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOUHVHDUFKRQFDVHVVXFKDV/DNH9LFWRULDDQG
WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD  LV WKHUHIRUH QRW RQH RI VSHFLDOLVHG VFLHQFH EXW LV UDWKHU RQH RI
XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH RYHUDOO SURFHVVHV DQG V\VWHPV WKURXJK ZKLFK HQYLURQPHQWDO PDQDJHPHQW
JRYHUQDQFHRIZDWHUERGLHVLVPDGHSRVVLEOH
&KDSWHU
$VFRQFOXGHGE\3DUNHUHWDOWKHIXQGDPHQWDOGLVFLSOLQDU\VFLHQFHEHKLQG,($LVRIWHQ
QRWQHZDQG,($VKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHFRQVLGHUHGWREHWKHPHUJHURIH[LVWLQJDUHDVRIVFLHQFH
DQGUHVHDUFKWRFRQVLGHUSUREOHPVLQQHZPRUHKROLVWLFZD\V$VDUJXHGE\0LVHUDQG4XDGH
,($FDQLQIDFWEHGHVFULEHGDVWKHHQJLQHHULQJDUWRIDSSO\LQJVFLHQWLILFPHWKRGVDQG
NQRZOHGJHWRFRPSOH[SUREOHPV$VDUHVXOWRIWKLVµQHZ¶XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHFRPSOH[LW\RI
HQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPVVFLHQFHKDVPRYHGRQWRDKLJKHUOHYHOE\RWKHUVRIWHQUHIHUUHGWRDV
µ3RVWQRUPDO6FLHQFH¶)XQWRZLF]DQG5DYHW]/XNV7RJQHWWLµ0RGH,,
6FLHQFHV¶*LEERQVHWDO3ROLF\6FLHQFH+RSSHRU6FLHQFHLQWKH&RQWH[WRILWV
$SSOLFDWLRQV¶+DUULV
7KHIDFWWKDWDFRQVLGHUDEOHQXPEHURIVFLHQWLILFMRXUQDOVDUHSUHVHQWO\VSHFLDOLVLQJLQWKHDUHD
RI ,($OLNH WRSLFV VXFK DV µ,QWHJUDWHG $VVHVVPHQW¶ WKH µ-RXUQDO RI 0DULQH 6\VWHPV¶ DQG
µ6FLHQFHRIWKH7RWDO(QYLURQPHQW¶DVZHOODVWKHVSHFLILFUHFRJQLWLRQJLYHQWRWKHWRSLFLQD
ODUJHUDQJHRIUHVSHFWHGVFLHQWLILFMRXUQDOVŠHJµ(QYLURQPHQWDO0RGHOOLQJDQG$VVHVVPHQW¶
µ:DWHU 6FLHQFH DQG 7HFKQRORJ\¶ µ(QYLURQPHQWDO 3ROOXWLRQ¶ µ(QHUJ\ 3ROLF\¶ µ0DULQH
3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ¶µ&OLPDWLF&KDQJH¶µ:DWHU$LUDQG6RLO3ROOXWLRQ¶µ,QGXVWULDO(FRORJ\¶
DQGµ(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW¶ŠLVSUREDEO\WKHEHVWSURRIRIDFFHSWDQFHRIWKHVFLHQWLILF
UHOHYDQFHRI,($E\WKHVFLHQWLILFFRPPXQLW\,QWHUQDWLRQDOUHFRJQLWLRQRIWKHYDOXHRI,($DV
D EULGJH EHWZHHQ VFLHQWLILF H[SHUWLVH DQG FRPSOH[ GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ LV IXUWKHUPRUH VKRZQ
DPRQJRWKHUVWKURXJKWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIWKH(XURSHDQ)RUXPRQ,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO
$VVHVVPHQW(),($ZKLFKKDVDVLWVWZRPDLQREMHFWLYHV
7RLPSURYHWKHVFLHQWLILFTXDOLW\RI,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQW$VVHVVPHQW
7R VWUHQJWKHQ WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ HQYLURQPHQWDO VFLHQFH DQG SROLF\
PDNLQJ
:LWKLQWKLVFRQWH[WRIJURZLQJLQWHUHVWIRU,($LWLVFRQVLGHUHGDFKDOOHQJHWRH[SORUHWKURXJK
WKLV WKHVLV WKH YDOXH RI ,($ DV DQ LQWHJUDWHG VFLHQWLILF UHVHDUFK WRRO IRU ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ
DVVHVVPHQWLQGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUVLWXDWLRQV
7KH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
:KDWLVWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN"
9DULRXVIUDPHZRUNVKDYHEHHQGHYHORSHGWRDQDO\VHWKHLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQKXPDQVDQGWKH
HQYLURQPHQW$VVWDWHGE\$OILHU\DQG:DOPVOH\WKH\DUHRIWHQUHIHUUHGWRDV
³SK\VLFDOIUDPHZRUNV´DVWKH\WHQGWREHV\VWHPDWLFDQGDUHSDUWLFXODUO\XVHIXODVDPHDQVRI
RUJDQL]LQJ DQG LQWHUSUHWLQJ GDWD IURP YDULRXV VXEMHFW DUHDV DQG VRXUFHV $V GLVFXVVHG E\
:DOPVOH\ WZR UHODWLYHO\ QHZ IUDPHZRUNV KDYH UHFHLYHG PXFK DWWHQWLRQ LQ UHFHQW
\HDUV L WKH 3UHVVXUH ± 6WDWH 5HVSRQVH 365 IUDPHZRUN DV SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH GHYHORSHGE\WKH2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU(FRQRPLF&RRSHUDWLRQDQG'HYHORSPHQW2(&'LQWKH
ODWH V DQG LL WKH 'ULYLQJ )RUFHV 3UHVVXUHV ± 6WDWH ± ,PSDFW ± 5HVSRQVH '36,5
IUDPHZRUN GHYHORSHG E\ WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH EHIRUHPHQWLRQHG 365
IUDPHZRUN$QRWKHUUHODWHGIUDPHZRUNLVWKH(QYLURQPHQWDO(IIHFW&KDLQŠDVGLVFXVVHGHJ
E\ 8GR GH +DHV Š ZKLFK FRXOG EH GHILQHG DV D NLQG RI 3UHVVXUH ± 6WDWH ± ,PSDFW
PRGHO
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
'ULYLQJ)RUFHV
,
(QYLURQPHQWDO
3UHVVXUH
,9D
,9E
,,
6WDWHRIWKH
(QYLURQPHQW
,9F
,,,
,PSDFW
,9G
5HVSRQVHDFWLRQV
• )LJXUH 6FKHPDWLFSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
7KH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN LV VFKHPDWLFDOO\ SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH )LYH HOHPHQWV FDQ EH
LGHQWLILHG ERXQG LQ ZKDW FRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG DQ HQYLURQPHQWDO HIIHFW ORRS RI ZKLFK WKH
YDULRXVVWHSVDUHLQGLFDWHGLQURPDQQXPEHUVLQ)LJXUH
4 'ULYLQJIRUFHVDUHWKHXQGHUO\LQJFDXVHVWKDWOHDGWRHQYLURQPHQWDOSUHVVXUHVDQGLQFOXGH
ERWK VRFLRHFRQRPLF IDFWRUV Š VXFK DV SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG IRRG WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ DQG
UHVRXUFHQHHGVŠDQGQDWXUDOIDFWRUVŠVXFKDVHURVLRQDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
4 7KHGULYLQJIRUFHVOHDGWRSUHVVXUHVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWLQWHUPVRIIRUH[DPSOHSROOXWLRQ
ORDGV Š VXFK DV GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO HIIOXHQWV DQG HPLVVLRQV QXWULHQW DQG SHVWLFLGH
OHDFKLQJDQGUXQRIIIURPODQGVDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQRISROOXWDQWV
4 7KHSUHVVXUHVLQWXUQDIIHFWWKHVWDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWZKLFKUHIHUVWRWKHTXDOLW\RIWKH
YDULRXVHQYLURQPHQWDOPHGLDDLUVRLOZDWHULQWHUPVRIDVSHFWVVXFKDVFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI
SROOXWDQWVDQGHFRORJLFDOKHDOWKDQGSURGXFWLYLW\
4 7KHHYHQWXDOSUREOHPZKLFKLVDFRQVHTXHQFHRIWKHVWDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWPDQLIHVWV
LWVHOILQDGYHUVHLPSDFWVVXFKDVGLVHDVHVQXLVDQFHDQGDPHQLWLHVGHJHQHUDWLRQDQGORVVRI
QDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVHJILVKVWRFNVDQGORVVRIELRGLYHUVLW\
4 7KHDGYHUVHLPSDFWVSURYLGHWKHLQFHQWLYHIRUFRUUHFWLYHRUPLWLJDWLYHUHVSRQVHVDFWLRQV
WDNHQDWWKHGLIIHUHQWOHYHOV([DPSOHVRIDFWLRQVDUHQRWHDGUHIHUWRFRUUHVSRQGLQJDGDV
LQGLFDWHGLQ)LJXUH
D $W WKH GULYLQJ IRUFHV OHYHO ± SODQQLQJ RI ODQGXVH DQG DJULFXOWXUDO DQG LQGXVWULDO
GHYHORSPHQWRULQWURGXFWLRQRIµJUHHQWD[HV¶LQRUGHUWRUHGXFHSXEOLFGHPDQGIRU
HQYLURQPHQWDOO\KDUPIXOSURGXFWV
E $WWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSUHVVXUH±LPSOHPHQWDWLRQRISROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQPHDVXUHVDW
SRLQWVRXUFHVZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWFOHDQHUSURGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVRUUHGXFWLRQ
RIIHUWLOLVHUXVHLQDJULFXOWXUH
,WLVQRWHGWKDWµQDWXUDOIDFWRUV¶DUHRIWHQQRWFRQVLGHUHGDVSDUWRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNQHJOHFWLQJWKHUHZLWKWKHIDFW
WKDWQDWXUDOFKDQJHVDQGWUHQGVVXFKDVLQWKHFDVHRIZDWHUV\VWHPVQDWXUDOFKDQJHVLQULYHUEHGGLQJVVLOWDWLRQRIULYHU
PRXWKVFKDQJHVLQUDLQIDOOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGQDWXUDOFKDQJHVLQHFRORJ\PD\EHWKHFDXVHRIµSHUFHLYHG¶
HQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPV'HQ\LQJQDWXUDOIDFWRUVLQWKH'36,5HIIHFWFKDLQFRXOGWKXVOHDGWRHUURQHRXVFRQFOXVLRQVZLWK
UHJDUGWRVXFKSUREOHPV
&KDSWHU
F $WWKHVWDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWOHYHO±PDNHSK\VLFDOFKDQJHVWRWKHZDWHUV\VWHP
HJ FUHDWH FDQDOV EHWZHHQ SDUWV RI WKH V\VWHP WR LQFUHDVH µVHOIFOHDQLQJ¶ ZDWHU
IOX[HV
G $W WKH LPSDFW OHYHO ± LPSURYH KHDOWK FDUH IDFLOLWLHV IRU WUHDWPHQW RI ZDWHUERUQH
GLVHDVHV
$SSOLFDWLRQRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNIRUZDWHUSROOXWLRQDVVHVVPHQW
7KH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN LV D SURYHQ DQG DFFHSWHG IUDPHZRUN IRU ,($ WR SROLF\ PDNHUV DQG
VFLHQWLVWVDOLNH7KHIUDPHZRUNKDVIRUH[DPSOHEHHQDGRSWHGIRUWKHSUHSDUDWLRQRIVWDWHRI
WKHHQYLURQPHQWUHSRUWVIRUWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV81(3DQGLVH[WHQVLYHO\DSSOLHGE\
WKH (XURSHDQ (QYLURQPHQWDO $JHQF\ (($ DQG WKH (XURSHDQ )RUXP IRU ,QWHJUDWHG
(QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW (),($ (($ $($ 7HFKQRORJ\ DV ZHOO DV E\
LQWHUQDWLRQDOLQVWLWXWHVRSHUDWLQJLQWKHILHOGRI,($HJ,&,6$FRQVLGHUDEOHQXPEHU
RI VFLHQWLILF SXEOLFDWLRQV XVLQJ WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN DV WKH EDVLV IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI
VSHFLILF HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHPV LQ D UDQJH RI GLVFLSOLQDU\ ILHOGV KDV PRUHRYHU DSSHDUHG LQ
UHFHQW\HDUV
0RVW '36,5IUDPHZRUN UHVHDUFK VHHPV WR IRFXV RQ UDWKHU WKHRUHWLFDO GHOLEHUDWLRQV RQ WKH
DSSURSULDWHQHVV RI WKH IUDPHZRUN DV D PDQDJHPHQW WRRO Š VXFK DV IRU GDWD FROOHFWLRQ DQG
UHSRUWLQJŠUDWKHUWKDQLWVDFWXDODSSOLFDWLRQDVDTXDQWLWDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWIUDPHZRUN5HDVRQ
IRU WKLV DUH WKH GLIILFXOWLHV LQYROYHG LQ VXFK DVVHVVPHQW LWVHOI +LGGHQ ZLWKLQ WKH '36,5
FRQFHSWDUHQDPHO\YHU\FRPSOLFDWHGVFLHQWLILFUHODWLRQVKLSV7KHDVVHVVPHQWRIUHODWLRQVKLSV
EHWZHHQ SUHVVXUHV VWDWH LPSDFWV DQG UHVSRQVHVDFWLRQV VWHSV , ,, ,,, DQG ,9 LQ )LJXUH UHVSHFWLYHO\ LQYROYHV LQWULFDWH LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\ FDXVHHIIHFW UHODWLRQVKLSV ZKLFK VSHFLDOLVHG
HQYLURQPHQWDOVFLHQFHVKDYHZRUNHGRQIRUGHFDGHV$VFRQFOXGHGE\'H:LWDQG3HEHVPD
+DUUHPRsVDQG-¡UJHQVHQDQG9ROOHQZHLGHUWKHIRFXVRIPXFKUHVHDUFK
RQZDWHUSROOXWLRQKDVIRUH[DPSOHEHHQRQWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHLQSXWVRISROOXWDQWVµSUHVVXUH¶
RQWKHµVWDWH¶RUµFRQGLWLRQ¶RIZDWHUERGLHVRIWHQRQWKHEDVLVRIH[WUHPHO\FRPSOH[PRGHOV
7KHUHDUHRQO\DOLPLWHGQXPEHURIH[DPSOHVRIDSSOLFDWLRQVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNWRZDWHU
SROOXWLRQSUREOHPV6HYHUDOFDVHVSXEOLVKHGLQOLWHUDWXUHDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH3UREDEO\
WKH EHVW H[DPSOHV RI D '36,5EDVHG DSSURDFK IRU WKH TXDQWLWDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI ZDWHU
SROOXWLRQDUHWKRVHRI7XUQHUHWDODQG7XUQHUHWDOZKRSUHVHQWFDVHVWXGLHVIRU
WKH8QLWHG.LQJGRPFRDVWDQGWKH%DOWLF6HDUHVSHFWLYHO\,WLVQRWHGKRZHYHUWKDWLQERWK
FDVHVWKHUHODWLRQVKLS'ULYLQJ)RUFHV±3UHVVXUHVDUHQRWFRQVLGHUHGVHSDUDWHO\EXWDUHLQIDFW
LQWHJUDWHGLQRQHER[UHIHUUHGWRDVµSUHVVXUH¶WKHUHZLWKHIIHFWLYHO\UHGXFLQJWKHIUDPHZRUNWR
36,5,QERWKFDVHVWKHUHVHDUFKZDVFRIXQGHGE\WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQDIDFWWKDW
VKRZV WKH JURZLQJ DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI SROLF\ PDNHUV RI WKLV W\SH RI UHVHDUFK DV WKH EULGJH
EHWZHHQWHFKQLFDOVFLHQFHVDQGJRYHUQDQFH
)RUH[DPSOHVVHH$QWXQHVDQG6DQWRV(OOLRWK+DUUHPRsV/DQJHZHJ3HQWUHDWK
DQG:DOPVOH\
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
• 7DEOH
([DPSOHVRIWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNWRZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPV
7\SHRI
DSSOLFDWLRQ
/LWHUDWXUHUHIHUHQFH 'HVFULSWLRQ
&RQFHSWXDO
PRGHO
3HQWUHDWK
'HVFULEHV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN DV D WRRO IRU
VWUDWHJLF HQYLURQPHQWDO PDQDJHPHQW LQ WKH 8QLWHG .LQJGRP
LQYROYLQJDQLQYHQWRU\RIGULYLQJIRUFHVSUHVVXUHVVWDWHLPSDFWVDQG
UHVSRQVHVLQDQDWWHPSWWRGHYHORSQHZYLHZSRLQWV:DWHUSROOXWLRQLV
RQHRIWKHLVVXHVFRQVLGHUHGDPRQJVWRWKHUHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPV
&RJQHWWL
'HVFULEHV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN DV D WRRO IRU
V\VWHPDWLFGDWDFROOHFWLRQDQGUHSRUWLQJRQWKHLPSDFWRIPDQUHODWHG
DFWLYLWLHV RQ WKH PDULQH HQYLURQPHQW LQ SDUWLFXODU LVVXHV UHODWHG WR
ZDWHUSROOXWLRQDQGLWVHIIHFWV
/DQJHZHJ
'HVFULEHVWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVDWRROIRUWKH
DVVHVVPHQW DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW SROLFLHV
LQFOXGLQJZDWHUSROOXWLRQFRQWURO
,&,6
'HVFULEHVWKHUDWLRQDOHRIWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNIRU
JOREDOZDWHUUHVRXUFHVPDQDJHPHQW
:DOPVOH\
'HVFULEHV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN DV D FRQFHSWXDO
PRGHO IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW LQ ZDWHU
UHVRXUFHVFDWFKPHQWV\VWHPV
4XDQWLWDWLYH
DVVHVVPHQW
+DUUHPRsV
3UHVHQWVDQRYHUYLHZRIWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVD
TXDQWLWDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWWRROIRUWKHPDQDJHPHQWRIQXWULHQWEDODQFHV
LQUHODWLRQWRHXWURSKLFDWLRQIRUWKHFDVHRI'HQPDUN
7XUQHUHWDO
'HVFULEHV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH 36,5 IUDPHZRUN DV D EDVLV IRU WKH
TXDQWLWDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI FRDVWDO ]RQH PDQDJHPHQW DOWHUQDWLYHV RQ
WKH8.FRDVW
7XUQHUHWDO
'HVFULEHV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH 36,5 IUDPHZRUN DV D EDVLV IRU WKH
TXDQWLWDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI HXWURSKLFDWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ VFHQDULRV LQ WKH
%DOWLF6HD
&RPELQHG
&RQFHSWXDO
PRGHODQG
TXDQWLWDWLYH
DVVHVVPHQW
/XLWHQ
'HVFULEHV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN ERWK DV D
FRQFHSWXDO PRGHO IRU WKH LQWHJUDWLRQ RI NQRZOHGJH DQG GDWD RQ WKH
HQYLURQPHQW DV ZHOO DV WKH EDVLV IRU TXDQWLWDWLYH DQDO\VLV WKURXJK
PRGHOOLQJ DV DSSOLHG E\ WKH (XURSHDQ (QYLURQPHQWDO $JHQF\
,QFOXGHVZDWHUVRLODQGDLUSROOXWLRQ
,QGLFDWRUVDQGSDUDPHWHUVIRUWKH'36,5FRPSRQHQWV
$VWDUWLQJSRLQWIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWLVWKHGHILQLWLRQRIDSSURSULDWHLQGLFDWRUVDQGSDUDPHWHUV
IRUHDFKRIWKHUHVSHFWLYHER[HV
x 'ULYLQJIRUFHVLQGLFDWRUVUHIOHFWIRUFHVH[HUWHGE\ERWKQDWXUDOSKHQRPHQDŠVXFKDV
YHJHWDWLRQ W\SHV DQG SDWWHUQV HURVLRQ UDWHV DQG PHWHRURORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV Š DQG
DQWKURSRJHQLFDFWLYLWLHVŠVXFKDVGZHOOLQJDJULFXOWXUDODQGLQGXVWULDODFWLYLWLHV
x 3UHVVXUHLQGLFDWRUVPHDVXUHWKHSUHVVXUHVWKDWDUHH[HUWHGRQWKHZDWHUV\VWHPDVD
UHVXOWRIWKHGULYLQJIRUFHVŠIRUH[DPSOHSROOXWLRQIURPGRPHVWLFZDVWHUXQRIIDQG
OHDFKLQJRIQLWURJHQ1DQGSKRVSKRURXV3FRPSRQHQWVGXHWRFXOWLYDWLRQRIODQG
&RQFHUQVLQIDFWRQO\WKH36,5SDUWRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN7KHUHODWLRQGULYLQJIRUFHV±SUHVVXUHVLVQRWVHSDUDWHO\
FRQVLGHUHGEXWPHUJHGLQWRRQHµER[¶UHIHUUHGWRDVµ3UHVVXUH¶
&KDSWHU
x 6WDWHLQGLFDWRUVUHIOHFWWKHFRQGLWLRQRIWKHZDWHUUHVRXUFHIRUHDFKHFRV\VWHPW\SH
IRUH[DPSOHLQWHUPVRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRISROOXWDQWVR[\JHQFRQWHQWILVKUHSURGXFWLRQ
DQGWURSKLFVWDWXV
x ,PSDFWLQGLFDWRUVUHIOHFWWKHHIIHFWWKDWFKDQJHVLQWKHFRQGLWLRQRIZDWHUUHVRXUFHV
KDYH RQ VRFLRHFRQRPLF XVH YDOXHV Š VXFK DV GULQNLQJ LQGXVWULDO DQG DJULFXOWXUDO
ZDWHUVXSSO\DQGWRXULVPŠDQGQRQXVHYDOXHVŠVXFKDVDPHQLWLHVKHDOWKIDFWRUVRI
ZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHV
x 5HVSRQVH LQGLFDWRUV UHODWH WR WKH LQGLYLGXDO DQG FROOHFWLYH UHVSRQVHV DQG DFWLRQV RI
SROLF\PDNHUVDQGVWDNHKROGHUVWRSUHYHQWPLWLJDWHRUUHGXFHHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJH
ŠIRUH[DPSOHWKURXJKODQGXVHSODQQLQJVRLOPDQDJHPHQWDQGZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQW
'ULYLQJIRUFHV
3UHVVXUH
6WDWH
,PSDFW
1DWXUDOFKDQJHV
3RLQWVRXUFHV
%LRWLF
8VHYDOXHV
5DLQIDOO
&OLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQV
9HJHWDWLRQW\SHVDQG
SDWWHUQV
6RLOHURVLRQ
1HZVSHFLHV
$QWKURSRJHQLFDFWLYLWLHV
'RPHVWLFSROOXWLRQORDG
,QGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQORDG
'LIIXVHVRXUFHV
7URSKLFVWDWXV
3URGXFWLYLW\
$ELRWLF
$WPRVSKHULFSROOXWDQW
ORDG
3ROOXWDQWODQGUXQRIIDQG
OHDFKLQJ
3ROOXWDQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
2[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQ
7UDQVSDUHQF\
)LVKUHVRXUFHV
5HFUHDWLRQDOYDOXH
'ULQNLQJZDWHU
,QGXVWULDODQGDJULFXOWXUDO
SURFHVVZDWHU
1RQXVHYDOXHV
'HPRJUDSKLFV
,QGXVWULDODFWLYLWLHV
$JULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHV
/DQGXVH
$PHQLW\LPSDFWV
+HDOWKLPSDFWV
(FRV\VWHPLQWHJULW\HJ
%LRGLYHUVLW\
5HVSRQVH
/DQGXVHSODQQLQJ
'HPRJUDSKLFSODQQLQJ
,QGXVWULDOGHYHORSPHQW
SODQQLQJ
$JULFXOWXUDOGHYHORSPHQW
SODQQLQJ
6RLOPDQDJHPHQW
$WVRXUFHSROOXWLRQ
UHGXFWLRQ
(QGRISLSHSROOXWLRQ
UHGXFWLRQ
&KDQJHVWRSK\VLFDO
V\VWHP
&KDQJHVWRHFRORJLFDO
V\VWHP
,PSDFWPLWLJDWLRQ
&RPSHQVDWLRQ
• )LJXUH )UDPHZRUNIRU'36,5LQGLFDWRUVLQWKHFDVHRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQDVVHVVPHQW
1RWHLQFHUWDLQFDVHVQDWXUDOFKDQJHVPLJKWLQGLUHFWO\UHODWHWRKXPDQLQWHUIHUHQFH
2QO\WKHPRVWSHUWLQHQWHOHPHQWVDUHOLVWHGKHUH'HSHQGLQJRQWKHVSHFLILFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDZDWHUSROOXWLRQFDVH
DGGLWLRQDODVSHFWVPLJKWEHLQYROYHG
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
$IUDPHZRUNIRULQGLFDWRUVIRUZDWHUSROOXWLRQDVVHVVPHQWLVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH,WVKRXOG
EH QRWHG WKDW WKHUH LV QR IL[HG VHW RI LQGLFDWRUV IRU WKH '63,5 IUDPHZRUN )RU H[DPSOH D
GULYLQJ IRUFHV DVSHFW VXFK DV GHPRJUDSKLFV PD\ EH GHVFULEHG LQ PDQ\ ZD\V LQFOXGLQJ
SRSXODWLRQ QXPEHU JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ XUEDQ YHUVXV UXUDO SRSXODWLRQ DJH DQG VH[
GLVWULEXWLRQ6HYHUDODXWKRUVLQFOXGLQJ$QWXQHVDQG6DQWRV/XLWHQ1LHPHLMHU
6ZDUWHWDODQG:DOPVOH\KDYHSURSRVHGVHWVRIJHQHUDOLQGLFDWRUVIRU
HQYLURQPHQWDODQGZDWHUSROOXWLRQPDQDJHPHQWZLWKLQWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN7KHFRQFOXVLRQ
WKDWPD\EHGUDZQIURPWKHLUGHOLEHUDWLRQVLVKRZHYHUWKDWLQGLFDWRUVVKRXOGEHDGDSWHGWRWKH
FRQWH[WRIWKHVSHFLILFFDVH
6WHS,'ULYLQJ)RUFHV3UHVVXUH
7KHLVVXH
.QRZOHGJH RI WKH FDXVHV DQG VRXUFHV RI SROOXWLRQ LV HVVHQWLDO IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI ZDWHU
SROOXWLRQ SUREOHPV 7KH VRXUFHV RI SROOXWDQWV FDQ EH FODVVLILHGLQWZRJURXSVSRLQWVRXUFHV
DQGQRQSRLQWVRXUFHV3RLQWVRXUFHVVXFKDVVHZHUDJHDQGLQGXVWULDOZDVWHZDWHUIORZRXWDW
GLVFUHWHLGHQWLILDEOHORFDWLRQV1RQSRLQWVRXUFHVVXFKDVUXQRIIIURPODQGDQGZHWDQGGU\
GHSRVLWLRQDUHQRWFRQILQHGWRRQHORFDWLRQDQGDUHWKHUHIRUHDOVRRIWHQUHIHUUHGWRDVµGLIIXVH
VRXUFHV¶
7KHILUVWVWHSLQDSROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDVVHVVPHQWLVWKHLQYHQWRU\RISRLQWDQGQRQSRLQWVRXUFHV
7KHVHFRQGVWHSLVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHDFWXDOSROOXWDQWORDGSUHVVXUHIURPWKHVHVRXUFHVZKLFK
LVQRWRQO\GHWHUPLQHGE\DQWKURSRJHQLFDFWLYLWLHVEXWDOVRE\QDWXUDOFRQGLWLRQV)RUH[DPSOH
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ LV QRW RQO\ LQIOXHQFHG E\ KXPDQ LQGXFHG HPLVVLRQV EXW DOVR E\
FOLPDWLF FRQGLWLRQV 6LPLODUO\ UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ RI SROOXWDQWV GHSHQGV QRW RQO\ RQ
DJULFXOWXUDOSUDFWLFHVDQGIHUWLOL]HUXVHEXWDOVRRQYHJHWDWLRQW\SHVDQGSDWWHUQVVRLOHURVLRQ
HWF 7KH DVVHVVPHQW RI SUHVVXUHV IURP SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV WKHUHIRUH UHTXLUHV FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI
ERWKQDWXUDOFRQGLWLRQVDQGDQWKURSRJHQLFDFWLYLWLHV
(YDOXDWLRQRISRVVLEOHPHWKRGVDQGDSSURDFKHV
)LJXUHSUHVHQWVWKHJHQHUDODSSURDFKHVIRUDVVHVVPHQWRISROOXWLRQORDGVSUHVVXUHVIURP
GLIIHUHQW VRXUFHV GULYLQJ IRUFHV WKDW PD\ EH GLVWLQJXLVKHG L GLUHFW PHDVXUHPHQW
PRQLWRULQJDQGLLVLPXODWLRQPRGHOOLQJ7KHPHWKRGVDUHGHVFULEHGDQGHYDOXDWHGLQWKH
IROORZLQJVHFWLRQV
$ODUJHGLIIHUHQFHLQW\SHVRILQGLFDWRUVLVUHODWHGWRWKHIDFWWKDWLQGLFDWRUVKDYHWZRGLVWLQFWLYHIXQFWLRQVLWR
FRPPXQLFDWHLQIRUPDWLRQRQHOHPHQWVLQWKHIUDPHZRUNDQGLLWRGHILQHGDWDUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUDVVHVVPHQW:LWKUHJDUG
WRWKHFRPPXQLFDWLRQIXQFWLRQWKHH[HFXWLRQRIDQDVVHVVPHQWRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQPLJKWUHTXLUHGHWDLOVRQLQSXWVDQG
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIVXEVWDQFHVLQZDWHULQIRUPDWLRQRQELRORJLFDOUDWHVRIWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIVXEVWDQFHVHWF6XFK
LQIRUPDWLRQGRHVKRZHYHUQRWPDNHVHQVHWRVWDNHKROGHUVDQGSROLF\PDNHUVZKRDUHEHWWHUVHUYHGZLWKLQIRUPDWLRQRQ
IRUH[DPSOHWKHSUHYDOHQFHRIZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHVLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUILVKVWRFNVDQGWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIZDWHUIRUSURYLVLRQ
RIGULQNLQJDJULFXOWXUDODQGLQGXVWULDOZDWHU,QWKHFDVHRIWKHGDWDUHTXLUHPHQWVIXQFWLRQPRUHRYHULQGLFDWRUVZRXOG
PXFKGHSHQGPXFKRQWKHIRUPDWRIDYDLODEOHGDWDDQGRQWKHDFWXDODVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGV
&KDSWHU
'ULYLQJIRUFHV
3UHVVXUH
1DWXUDOFRQGLWLRQV
3RLQWVRXUFHV
5DLQIDOO
&OLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQV
9HJHWDWLRQW\SHVDQGSDWWHUQV
6RLOHURVLRQ
1HZVSHFLHV
x
'RPHVWLFSROOXWLRQORDG
,QGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQORDG
$QWKURSRJHQLFDFWLYLWLHV
x
'HPRJUDSKLFV
,QGXVWULDODFWLYLWLHV
$JULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHV
/DQGXVH
'LUHFWPHDVXUHPHQW
4 6RXUFHEDVHG
PRQLWRULQJ
4 5LYHULQHSROOXWLRQ
PRQLWRULQJ
6LPXODWLRQPRGHOOLQJ
4 0RGHOVRIIXQGDPHQWDO
SURFHVVHV
4 (PSLULFDOPRGHOV
'LIIXVHVRXUFHV
$WPRVSKHULFSROOXWDQWORDG
3ROOXWDQWODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJ
• )LJXUH 0HWKRGVIRU'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVVHVVPHQW6WHS,'ULYLQJIRUFHVWR3UHVVXUH
'LUHFWPHDVXUHPHQW
6RXUFHEDVHG PRQLWRULQJ ± )RU SRLQW VRXUFHV RI SROOXWLRQ WKH PRVW REYLRXV GHWDLOHG DQG
UHOLDEOH PHWKRG IRU D SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV DVVHVVPHQW LV WR PHDVXUH ORDGV DW WKH VRXUFH )RU
GLIIXVHVRXUFHVKRZHYHUPHDVXULQJDWWKHVRXUFHLVH[WUHPHO\GLIILFXOWDVLWUHTXLUHVVDPSOLQJ
RYHU ODUJH UDQJHV RI VSDFH DQG WLPH $OVR LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH GDWD REWDLQHG UHTXLUHV
NQRZOHGJH RI SURFHVVHV LQ DLU ZDWHU RU VRLO PDWULFHV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH SUHFLVH OHDFKLQJ WR
ZDWHUFRXUVHV IRU ZKLFK RIWHQ LQWULFDWH PRGHOV DUH UHTXLUHG $ GLVFXVVLRQ RQ WKH LVVXHV DQG
FRPSOH[LWLHVLQYROYHGLQVXFKPRGHOOLQJLVSUHVHQWHGDPRQJRWKHUVE\%XGHOPDQ+HHW
DO 0DWR DQG 6XJLKDUWR HW DO ,Q GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV DW VRXUFH
PRQLWRULQJ RI SRLQW VRXUFHV VXFK DV DW LQGLYLGXDO LQGXVWULDO HVWDEOLVKPHQWV LV JHQHUDOO\
DSSOLHG +RZHYHU VXFK PRQLWRULQJ LV UHVRXUFH FRQVXPLQJ DQG GHPDQGV DQ DGYDQFHG
LQVWLWXWLRQDODQGWHFKQLFDOVHWXSZKLFKLVXQDYDLODEOHLQPRVWGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV
5LYHULQHSROOXWLRQPRQLWRULQJ±:KLOHPRQLWRULQJDWVRXUFHLVH[WUHPHO\WLPHDQGUHVRXUFH
GHPDQGLQJPRQLWRULQJRIWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRISROOXWDQWVLQULYHUVIORZLQJLQWRDZDWHUERG\LV
D PXFK OHVV ODERULRXV DFWLYLW\ ,W HOLPLQDWHV WKH QHHG IRU DVVHVVPHQW RI LQGLYLGXDO XSVWUHDP
SRLQWDQGQRQSRLQWVRXUFHVDQGLVWKHUHZLWKPXFKOHVVWLPHDQGUHVRXUFHFRQVXPLQJ,QPDQ\
FDVHV WKHUHIRUH ULYHULQH SROOXWLRQ PRQLWRULQJ LV DSSOLHG LQ DVVHVVPHQWV RI ZDWHU ERGLHV
([DPSOHV RI VXFK DUH SUHVHQWHG E\ %HKUHQGW 'H :LW 'H :LW DQG 3HEHVPD
*UHORZVNL HW DO +DYHQV HW DO 0H\EHFN DQG 6DULND\D HW DO
$GLVDGYDQWDJHRIWKLVDSSURDFKLVKRZHYHUWKDWWKHDFWXDOVRXUFHVRISROOXWLRQDUHQRW
LQYHVWLJDWHG PDNLQJ LW GLIILFXOW WR GHYHORS VRXUFHEDVHG SROOXWLRQ DEDWHPHQW SROLFLHV
WKHUHZLWKUHVWULFWLQJLWVIXQFWLRQDOLW\IRUSROLF\PDNLQJ
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
6LPXODWLRQPRGHOOLQJ
0RGHOVRIIXQGDPHQWDOSURFHVVHV±0RGHOOLQJRIWKHIXQGDPHQWDOVRIWKHSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDO
DQG ELRORJLFDO EHKDYLRXU RI SROOXWDQWV LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW FDQ SURYLGH XVHIXO LQVLJKW LQ WKH
SURFHVVHVFRQWUROOLQJWKHSROOXWLRQRIZDWHUERGLHVLQSDUWLFXODUZKHUHLWFRQFHUQVQRQSRLQW
VRXUFHV)RUH[DPSOHNQRZOHGJHRIQXWULHQWSURFHVVHVLQVRLOVSODQWVDQGDTXLIHUVFDQEHXVHG
WR DVVHVV DQG LPSURYH QXWULHQW UHWHQWLRQ LQ VRLOV ZLWK EHQHILWV IRU ERWK DJULFXOWXUH DQG WKH
HQYLURQPHQW([DPSOHVRIVWXGLHVLQWKLVUHVSHFWDUHSUHVHQWHGE\%HQGRULFFKLRDQG5LQDOGR
/HRQDUG DQG .QLVHO 0XONH\ HW DO 1RYRWQ\ DQG 9DOLHOD DQG
%RZHQ)XUWKHUPRUH+RUGLMNGLVFXVVHVWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIPRGHOVRISROOXWDQW
WUDQVSRUWDQGSURFHVVHVLQWKHDWPRVSKHUHWRGHILQHSROOXWLRQDEDWHPHQWVWUDWHJLHVIRUDFLGUDLQ
)XQGDPHQWDO VFLHQWLILF UHVHDUFK RQ VXFK WRSLFV LV KRZHYHU YHU\ GHPDQGLQJ LQ WHUPV RI
WHFKQLFDOFDSDFLW\UHVRXUFHVDQGGDWD$OVRUHVXOWVIURPRQHFDVHDUHQRWGLUHFWO\DSSOLFDEOH
WRRWKHUFDVHVZLWKRXWDGGLWLRQDOFDVHVSHFLILFUHVHDUFK
(PSLULFDOPRGHOV%HFDXVHRIWKHEHIRUHPHQWLRQHGGLIILFXOWLHVUHODWHGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI
PRGHOVRISK\VLFDOFKHPLFDODQGELRORJLFDOSURFHVVHVPDQ\UHVHDUFKHUVUHYHUWWRHPSLULFDORU
VHPLHPSLULFDOPRGHOV7KHDVVXPSWLRQLQVXFKPRGHOVLVWKDWSROOXWLRQIURPDJLYHQVRXUFH
FDQ EH UHODWHG WR RQH RU PRUH PHDVXUDEOH SDUDPHWHUV HJ GRPHVWLF ZDVWH SURGXFWLRQ WR
SRSXODWLRQVL]HODQGUXQRIIWRVL]HRIFDWFKPHQWDUHDVORSHRIKLOOVUDLQIDOOHWFDWPRVSKHULF
SROOXWLRQ ORDG WR UDLQIDOO 7KH HPSLULFDO UHODWLRQVKLSV PD\ YDU\ IURP RQHSDUDPHWHU OLQHDU
HTXDWLRQV WR FRPSOH[ PXOWLSDUDPHWHU PRGHOV 7KH PDLQ DGYDQWDJH RI HPSLULFDO PRGHOV LV
WKHLU HDVH RI DSSOLFDWLRQ DQG WKHLU OLPLWHG LQSXW GDWD UHTXLUHPHQWV $ GLVDGYDQWDJH LV WKH
OLPLWHGLQVLJKWVXFKPRGHOVJLYHLQWKHSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDODQGELRORJLFDOIXQGDPHQWDOVRIWKH
SROOXWLRQSUREOHPDQGUHODWHGWRWKLVWKHTXHVWLRQDELOLW\RIUHVXOWVREWDLQHGLHEHFDXVHWKH
HPSLULFDOFDVHVXSRQZKLFKWKHUHODWLRQVKLSZDVGHYHORSHGPLJKWQRWEHFRPSDUDEOHWRRWKHU
FDVHV 1HYHUWKHOHVV HPSLULFDO PRGHOV DUH WKH PRVW ZLGHO\ DSSOLHG PHWKRGV LQ SROOXWLRQ
VRXUFHV DVVHVVPHQW LQ SDUWLFXODU IRU GLIIXVH VRXUFHV RI SROOXWLRQ ([DPSOHV RI VXFK
DSSOLFDWLRQVDUHSUHVHQWHGE\%HDXODFDQG5HFNRZ&DUDFRDQG&ROH'H:LW
'H:LWDQG3HEHVPD*DOORZD\HWDO+HVVLRQHWDO.URH]HHW
DO.URH]HDQG6HLW]LQJHU1L[RQHWDODQG3HLHUOVHWDO
$ FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH EHIRUHPHQWLRQHG PHWKRGRORJLHV LQ WHUPV RI WKHLU DGYDQWDJHV DQG
GLVDGYDQWDJHV ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKHLU DSSOLFDWLRQ LQ GDWD DQG UHVRXUFH SRRU VLWXDWLRQV LV
SUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH,WLVFOHDUIURPWKHDVVHVVPHQWWKDWLQFDVHVZKHUHGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHV
IRU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DUH OLPLWHG SUHIHUHQFH VKRXOG EH JLYHQ WR HPSLULFDO DSSURDFKHV +RZHYHU
VLQFHWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIUHVXOWVIURPVXFKDVVHVVPHQWLVORZLWLVDGYLVDEOHWRFRPELQHHPSLULFDO
DSSURDFKHV ZKHUH SRVVLEOH ZLWK ULYHULQH DQGRU VRXUFHEDVHG PRQLWRULQJ WR YHULI\ DQGRU
FDOLEUDWHUHVXOWV7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQRXWOLQHVWKHPDLQDSSURDFKDSSOLHGLQWKLVWKHVLV
,WLVQRWHGWKDWLQFHUWDLQFDVHVDOWHUQDWLYHDSSURDFKHVDUHDSSOLHGLQWKHUHVHDUFKFDVHVSUHVHQWHGLQFKDSWHUDQG
LQSDUWLFXODUIRUODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJ'HWDLOVRIWKHVHDSSURDFKHVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHUHVSHFWLYHFKDSWHUV
&KDSWHU
5HOLDELOLW\RI
UHVXOWV
)XQFWLRQDOLW\
RIRXWSXWIRU
SROLF\PDNLQJ
'LUHFWPHDVXUHPHQW
7HFKQLFDO
LQVWLWXWLRQDO
UHTXLUHPHQWV
0HWKRG
,QSXWGDWD
UHTXLUHPHQWV
&RPSDULVRQRIIXQFWLRQDOLW\RIPHWKRGRORJLHVIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIHQYLURQPHQW
SUHVVXUHVRULJLQDWLQJIURPSROOXWLRQVRXUFHVLQGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHVLWXDWLRQVLVSRVLWLYHLV
QHJDWLYHLVQHXWUDOIXQFWLRQDOLW\
5HVRXUFH
UHTXLUHPHQWV
• 7DEOH
6RXUFHEDVHGPRQLWRULQJ
5LYHULQHPRQLWRULQJ
6LPXODWLRQPRGHOOLQJ
0RGHOOLQJRIIXQGDPHQWDOSURFHVVHV
(PSLULFDOPRGHOV
(ODERUDWLRQRIWKHDSSOLHGDSSURDFK
7KLVVHFWLRQRXWOLQHVDSURFHGXUHIRUPDNLQJUDSLGDFURVVWKHERDUGDVVHVVPHQWVRISROOXWLRQ
ORDGVRQDUHJLRQRUFRXQWU\ZLGHVFDOH7KHSURFHGXUHLVKHUHDIWHUUHIHUUHGWRDVWKH5DSLG
$VVHVVPHQW 5$ PHWKRGRORJ\ ,WV SULQFLSOHV DUH EDVHG XSRQ D PHWKRGRORJ\ GHYHORSHG E\
(FRQRPRSRXOXV
7KH VWDQGDUG SURFHGXUH XVHG WR HVWLPDWH SROOXWLRQ IURP WKH YDULRXV ODQGEDVHG SROOXWLRQ
VRXUFHVLVEDVHGRQWKHIROORZLQJIRUPXOD
(TXDWLRQ
:DVWH/RDG )XQFWLRQDO9DULDEOH3ROOXWLRQ,QWHQVLW\ ZKHUH WKH ZDVWH ORDG >NJ@ UHSUHVHQWV WKH DFWXDO LQSXW RI SROOXWDQWV LQWR WKH ODJRRQ DQG WKH
SROOXWLRQLQWHQVLW\>NJXQLW@LVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFDPRXQWRIZDVWHSURGXFHGSHUXQLWRIDFHUWDLQ
IXQFWLRQDOYDULDEOH>XQLW@$VXLWDEOHVHOHFWLRQRISDUDPHWHUVDOORZVHVWLPDWLRQRIZDVWHORDGV
RQ WKH EDVLV RI PRUH HDVLO\ PHDVXUDEOH GDWD VXFK DV SRSXODWLRQ SURGXFWLRQ DQG ODQGXVH
ILJXUHV 7DEOH SUHVHQWV IXQFWLRQDO YDULDEOHV DQG SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV DV DSSOLHG LQ WKLV
UHVHDUFK%R[SURYLGHVIXUWKHUMXVWLILFDWLRQIRUWKH5$DSSURDFK
• 7DEOH
3ROOXWLRQVRXUFH
,QGXVWULHV
+RXVHKROGV
/DQGUXQRII
$WPRVSKHULF'HSRVLWLRQ
)XQFWLRQDOYDULDEOHVDQGSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUWKHSULQFLSOHSROOXWLRQVRXUFHV
)XQFWLRQDOYDULDEOH
3ROOXWLRQLQWHQVLW\
$QQXDOSURGXFWLRQ>W\P \@
3RSXODWLRQQXPEHU>@
$UHDRIQRQFXOWLYDWHGODQG>P@
6XUIDFHDUHD>P@
3ROOXWDQWRXWSXWSHUXQLWSURGXFW>NJWNJP@
3ROOXWDQWRXWSXWSHUSHUVRQ>NJ\@
([SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVRISROOXWDQWV>NJP\@
$UHDOSROOXWDQWGHSRVLWLRQUDWH>NJP\@
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
• %R[ -XVWLILFDWLRQRIWKH5DSLG$VVHVVPHQWDSSURDFK
7KH PDLQ DVVXPSWLRQ LQ WKH 5$ DSSURDFK LV WKDW WKHUH LV D OLQHDU UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ SROOXWLRQ ORDG DQG WKH
IXQFWLRQDO YDULDEOH IRU HDFK FDWHJRU\ 7KLV LV HDVLO\ MXVWLILDEOH IRU WKH WZR SRLQWVRXUFH FDWHJRULHV DQG IRU
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ )RU KRXVHKROGV WKLV SUHVXPHV WKDW DQ DYHUDJH ZDVWH SURGXFWLRQ SHU SHUVRQ DQG IRU
LQGXVWULHVWKDWIRUHDFKW\SHRILQGXVWULDOSURFHVVDQDYHUDJHSROOXWDQWORDGSHUXQLWRISURGXFWFDQEHGHILQHG
$OVRRQHFDQDVVXPHWKDWDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQRISROOXWDQWVLVUHODWLYHO\XQLIRUPRYHUDODUJHUDUHDDQGWKXV
WKDWDQDYHUDJHDUHDOGHSRVLWLRQUDWHFDQEHGHILQHG
)RU ODQG UXQRII WKH LVVXH LV PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG KRZHYHU 5XQRII RI SROOXWDQWV HJ QXWULHQWV SHVWLFLGHV IURP
ODQG DQG OHDFKLQJ WKURXJK JURXQGZDWHU GHSHQGV RQ D QXPEHU RI SDUDPHWHUV LQFOXGLQJ L UDLQIDOO LL VRLO
HURGLELOLW\ LLL WRSRJUDSK\ VORSHV KLOOV HWF LY ODQG FRYHU DJULFXOWXUH IRUHVW HWF DQG Y PDQDJHPHQW
SUDFWLFH &RQVHTXHQWO\ ODQG UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ YDULHV ZLGHO\ EHWZHHQ FDVHV %HDXODF DQG 5HFNRZ SUHVHQW DQ RYHUYLHZ RI ODQG UXQRII ± QXWULHQW H[SRUW UHODWLRQVKLSV ZKLFK VKRZ WKH ODUJH YDULDELOLW\ LQ SROOXWLRQ
LQWHQVLWLHV&RPSOLFDWHGPXOWLSDUDPHWHUPRGHOVKDYHEHHQGHYHORSHGDQGWHVWHGE\DPRQJRWKHUV$UKRQGLWVLV
HW DO %HQGRULFFKLR DQG 5LQDOGR +HVVLRQ HW DO /HRQDUG DQG .QLVHO DQG 9DOLHOD
DQG%RZHQ+RZHYHUHYDOXDWLRQDQG VWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVRIVXFKPRGHOVE\GH:LWDQG3HEHVPD
KDV VKRZQ WKDW DOWKRXJK LQWHUHVWLQJ IURP D WKHRUHWLFDO SRLQW RI YLHZ DGGLQJ FRPSOH[LW\ GRHV QRW QHFHVVDULO\
LPSURYH WKHLU SUHGLFWLYH FDSDFLW\ ([WHQVLYH DQG UHOLDEOH GDWD LV UHTXLUHG WR FDO LEUDWH DQG YDOLGDWH PRUH
FRPSOLFDWHG PRGHOV 8QGHU WKH OLPLWHG GDWD DQG UHVRXUFH FLUFXPVWDQFHV RI WKLV UHVHDUFK RQO\ WKH VLPSOHVW
DSSURDFKZRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHMXVWLILHG
7KH H[HFXWLRQ RI D 5$ GHPDQGV ILUVWO\ WKH FROOHFWLRQ RI EDVHOLQH GDWD RQ WKH IXQFWLRQDO
YDULDEOHVFKRVHQ,QSXWGDWDIRUWKH5$PD\EHFROOHFWHGWKURXJKILHOGVXUYH\VEXWPD\RIWHQ
DOVR EH REWDLQHG IURP VWDWLVWLFDO UHSRUWV IURP ORFDO QDWLRQDODQGUHJLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWDODQG
QRQJRYHUQPHQWDO LQVWLWXWLRQV VFLHQWLILF OLWHUDWXUH DQG RWKHU ZULWWHQ DQG QRQZULWWHQ
UHVRXUFHV 7DEOH SURYLGHV D QRQH[WHQVLYH OLVW RI SRWHQWLDO VRXUFHV RI LQSXW GDWD IRU WKH
H[HFXWLRQRID5$
2IWHQWKLVGDWDFROOHFWLRQLVWKHPRVWWLPHFRQVXPLQJDQGFKDOOHQJLQJSDUWRIWKH5$H[HUFLVH
7KLVLVILUVWRIDOOEHFDXVHWKHVRXUFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQDUHGLIILFXOWWRLGHQWLI\SDUWLFXODUO\ZKHUH
RQH VWDUWV XS DQ DVVHVVPHQW LQ D QHZ FRXQWU\ RU UHJLRQ WKH FXVWRGLDQV RI GDWD PD\ YDU\
VLJQLILFDQWO\6HFRQGO\LIGDWDLVLQGHHGWUDFHGWKHTXDQWLW\DQGIUHTXHQF\RIGDWDFROOHFWLRQ
GRHVQRWDOZD\VIXOO\ILWWKHSXUSRVHRIWKHDVVHVVPHQW3DUWLFXODUO\LQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV
GDWDLVRIWHQQRWV\VWHPDWLFDOO\FROOHFWHGDQGPD\FRQVHTXHQWO\VKRZJDSV$OWKRXJKDORWRI
FRUUHFWLYHZRUNPD\EHGRQHE\PHDQVRIH[WUDDQGLQWHUSRODWLRQH[HUFLVHVWKLVDIIHFWVWKH
UHOLDELOLW\RIWKHDVVHVVPHQW/DVWO\LQPDQ\FDVHVWKHPDQQHULQZKLFKGDWDLVFROOHFWHGŠLQ
WHUPV RI VDPSOLQJ DQG DQDO\VLV Š LV RIWHQ QRW UHOLDEOH 7KLV PD\ EH EHFDXVH RI NQRZQ
GHILFLHQFLHVLQDQDO\WLFDOVNLOOVRUVLPSO\EHFDXVHWKHPHWKRGVDSSOLHGIRUGDWDFROOHFWLRQDQG
DQDO\VLVDUHQRWVXIILFLHQWO\NQRZQRUUHSRUWHG
,Q XVLQJ WKH 5$ SURFHGXUH WKH FKRLFH RI FKDUDFWHULVWLF SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV EHFRPHV YHU\
GHOLFDWHVLQFHIDFWRUVOLNHH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVDQGZDVWHSHUXQLWSURGXFWRUSHUVRQYDU\ZLGHO\
DFURVVFDVHVVHH%R[)RUH[DPSOHODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJRIIHUWLOL]HUVDQGSHVWLFLGHV
IURPKLJKO\HURGLEOHVRLOVDUHODUJHUWKDQIURPIHUWLOHFOD\JURXQGV$OVRZDVWHSURGXFWLRQSHU
SHUVRQLQGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVZLOOEHKLJKHUWKDQLQFRXQWULHVZLWKODUJHVKRUWDJHVLQSULPDU\
QHHGV'XHDWWHQWLRQVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHJLYHQWRWKHVHOHFWLRQRISROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVWKURXJKD
UHYLHZRIOLWHUDWXUHGDWDIURPFDVHVDVVLPLODUDVSRVVLEOHWRWKHRQHVXUYH\HG$QXPEHURINH\
VRXUFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQDVXVHGLQWKLVWKHVLVDUHOLVWHGLQ7DEOH
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH
VRXUFHV
3RWHQWLDOVRXUFHVRIGDWDRQIXQFWLRQDOYDULDEOHVIRUD5DSLG$VVHVVPHQWRISROOXWLRQ
7\SHRIGDWD
3RVVLEOHVRXUFHV
3RSXODWLRQ
6WDWLVWLFDO\HDUERRNV
3RSXODWLRQFHQVXVUHSRUWV
0DVWHUSODQVWXGLHV
1DWLRQDOSODQQLQJRUGHYHORSPHQWDJHQFLHV
0LQLVWU\RIKHDOWKDQGRUSXEOLFZRUNV
6HZHUDJHRUJDQL]DWLRQV
0XQLFLSDOLWLHV
0LQLVWU\RIKHDOWKSXEOLFZRUNVDQGRUZDWHU
:DWHUFRPSDQ\
0XQLFLSDOLWLHV
6WDWLVWLFDO\HDUERRNV
0LQLVWU\RILQGXVWULHVFRPPHUFHRUWUDGH
1DWLRQDOSODQQLQJDJHQFLHV
(FRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWDJHQFLHV
,QGXVWU\DVVRFLDWLRQV
6WDWLVWLFDO\HDUERRNV
0LQLVWU\RIDJULFXOWXUH
$JULFXOWXUDODVVRFLDWLRQV
(FRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWDJHQFLHV
3URGXFWPDUNHWLQJERDUGV
0LQLVWULHV RI ZDWHU HQYLURQPHQW KHDOWK QDWXUDO
UHVRXUFHVDQGRUILVKHU\
:DWHUSROOXWLRQFRQWURODXWKRULWLHV
8QLYHUVLWLHVDQGUHVHDUFKLQVWLWXWHV
0LQLVWU\RIHQYLURQPHQW
0XQLFLSDOLWLHVDQGORFDODXWKRULWLHV
3ULYDWHUHIXVHGLVSRVDOFRPSDQLHV
6HZDJHFROOHFWLRQDQGGLVSRVDO
:DWHUVXSSO\
,QGXVWULDODFWLYLWLHV
$JULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHV
:DWHUTXDOLW\DQGHIIOXHQWORDGLQJGDWD
6ROLGZDVWHGDWD
• 7DEOH
VRXUFHV
3RWHQWLDOVRXUFHVRIGDWDRQSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUD5DSLG$VVHVVPHQWRISROOXWLRQ
7\SHRIGDWD
3RVVLEOHVRXUFHV
$QQXDOGRPHVWLFZDVWHSURGXFWLRQSHUSHUVRQ
(FRQRPRSRXOXV
:DVWHSURGXFWLRQSHUXQLWSURGXFWRILQGXVWULHV
(FRQRPRSRXOXV
$QQXDOH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVRIQXWULHQWVIURPODQG
%HDXODFDQG5HFNRZ
(FRQRPRSRXOXV
-¡UJHQVHQDQG9ROOHQZHLGHU
7KRPDQQDQG0XHOOHU
$QQXDOQXWULHQWGHSRVLWLRQSHUXQLWRIVXUIDFHDUHD %RRWVPDHWDO
(ULNVVRQ
*DOORZD\HWDO
-¡UJHQVHQDQG9ROOHQZHLGHU
2QO\UHIHUHQFHVSURYLGLQJXVHIXORYHUYLHZVRIGDWDDUHSUHVHQWHG'HWDLOHGGDWDPD\EHDYDLODEOHRQDFDVHE\FDVH
EDVLV
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
7RDFHUWDLQH[WHQWRWKHUVKDYHXVHGDSSURDFKHVWKDWDUHTXLWHVLPLODUWRWKHEHIRUHGHVFULEHG
PHWKRGRORJ\ DOEHLW OLPLWHG WR SRLQW VRXUFHV RI SROOXWLRQ RQO\ )RU H[DPSOH $EGXOODK HW DO
DQG 6DULND\D HW DO DSSO\ SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV DV GHILQHG E\ (FRQRPRSRXOXV
LQ WKHLU DVVHVVPHQWV RI UHVSHFWLYHO\ WKH SRLQW VRXUFHV RI SROOXWLRQ RI WKH 6WUDLWV RI
0DODFFDDQGWKH%ODFN6HD7KHVDPHDSSURDFKZDVDSSOLHGLQDUHJLRQZLGHDVVHVVPHQWRI
FRXQWULHV ERUGHULQJ WKH *XLQHD &XUUHQW LQ :HVW $IULFD DV UHSRUWHG E\ $MDR DQG $QXULJZR
$QJZH DQG *DEFKH %LQH\ 0pWRQJR HW DO 6LVVRKR DQG-DUMX
6RFORDQG+RXQJXH6RURDQG8QLYHUVLWp&KHLNK$QWD'LRSGH'DNDU
)XUWKHUPRUH0HHDQG%OR[KDPDSSO\DQDSSURDFKEDVHGXSRQ(FRQRPSRXOXV¶
5$ SURFHGXUH DV SDUW RI D JOREDO PDULQH SROOXWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW H[HUFLVH ZLWKLQ WKH
FRQWH[WRIWKH*OREDO,QWHUQDWLRQDO:DWHUV$VVHVVPHQW*,:$LQLWLDWLYH
7KHSUDFWLFDELOLW\RIWKHDSSURDFKLQWKHFDVHRIGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUVLWXDWLRQVDQGODUJH
FDWFKPHQWVLVFOHDUO\GHPRQVWUDWHGE\WKHEHIRUHPHQWLRQHGFDVHV+RZHYHULWLVQRWHGWKDW
WKHVH VWXGLHV ZHUH OLPLWHG WR D UDWKHU WHFKQRFUDWLF SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV LQYHQWRU\ ZLWKRXW
VFLHQWLILF GHOLEHUDWLRQ RQ LVVXHV VXFK DV YDOLGLW\ DQG UHOLDELOLW\ RI UHVXOWV $OVR WKHLU
DVVHVVPHQWV DUH EDVHG VROHO\ RQ SROOXWLRQ LQGLFHV DV UHSRUWHG E\ (FRQRPRSRXOXV ZKLOHDVDUJXHGWKHODUJHYDULDWLRQLQLQGLFHVUHTXLUHVDPRUHWKURXJKLQYHVWLJDWLRQLQWRWKH
DSSURSULDWHQHVVRIWKHVHLQGLFHVHJWKURXJKOLWHUDWXUHUHVHDUFKRQFRPSDUDEOHFDVHV
$QRWKHULVVXHQHJOHFWHGLQWKHVWXGLHVPHQWLRQHGEHIRUHLVWKHIDFWWKDWWKHDFWXDOSROOXWDQWORDG
WR D JLYHQ ZDWHU ERG\ PD\ QRW EH HTXDO WR ZKDW OHDYHV WKHVRXUFHDWLWVRULJLQ:DVWHZDWHU
WUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVDQGVHOISXULILFDWLRQLQULYHUVDQGZHWODQGVPD\UHGXFHWKHDFWXDOORDGWRD
FHUWDLQZDWHUERG\$QHODERUDWLRQRIWKHVWDQGDUG5$IRUPXODDOORZVIRUVXFKHIIHFWVWREH
LQFRUSRUDWHGLQWKHDVVHVVPHQW
(TXDWLRQ :DVWH/RDG )XQFWLRQDO9DULDEOH3ROOXWLRQ,QWHQVLW\3HQHWUDWLR Q)DFWRU ZKHUHWKHYDOXHRIWKHSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUPD\YDU\EHWZHHQDQG7KUHHSULQFLSOHW\SHVRI
SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV PD\ EH GHILQHG L SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV IRU GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO
ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV LL SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV IRU UHGXFWLRQ RI %LRORJLFDO 2[\JHQ
'HPDQG%2'LQULYHUVDQGLLLSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVIRUQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQLQZHWODQGV:LWK
UHJDUG WR WKH ILUVW W\SLFDO SHUIRUPDQFHV RI QRUPDOO\ RSHUDWLQJ SODQWV DUH UHSRUWHG E\
(FRQRPRSRXORV DOWKRXJK EDG RSHUDWLRQ PD\ UHTXLUH HVWLPDWLRQV RI WUHDWPHQW
HIILFLHQFLHVWREHPDGHRQWKHEDVLVRIVLWHYLVLWVDQGHIIOXHQWDQDO\VLVGDWD
:LWKUHJDUGWRWKHVHFRQGW\SHQDWXUDOSXULILFDWLRQLQULYHUVDQGVWUHDPVUHGXFHV%2'IURPD
GLVWDQWVRXUFH7KHEUHDNGRZQRI%2'LQULYHUVFDQEHGHVFULEHGDVDILUVWRUGHUGHFD\SURFHVV
7KRPDQQDQG0XHOOHU
(TXDWLRQ
/
/
§ . ' ·
H[S¨
¸
© Y
¹
,QVWHDGRIµSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRU¶RIWHQWKHUHYHUVHµUHGXFWLRQIDFWRU¶LVXVHG
,QUHDOLW\WKHEUHDNGRZQLVDVHFRQGRUGHUSURFHVVLQERWK%2'DQG27KHDVVXPSWLRQPDGHE\DSSO\LQJ(TXDWLRQ
LVWKXVWKDWWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI2LVUHODWLYHO\FRQVWDQW
&KDSWHU
,QZKLFK/UHSUHVHQWVGRZQVWUHDP%2'>JP@/ UHSUHVHQWV%2'DWWKHSRLQWRIGLVFKDUJH
>[email protected]\UDWH>V@'LVWKHGLVWDQFHEHWZHHQGLVFKDUJHSRLQWDQGODNHVKRUH>P@
DQGYLVWKHULYHUIORZYHORFLW\>PV@//WKXVSURYLGHVDYDOXHIRUWKHSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUDW
GLVWDQFH ' IURP WKH ODNHVKRUH ,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHGHFD\IDFWRU.GHSHQGVRQPDQ\
GLIIHUHQW ULYHU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VXFK DV EDFWHULDO FRPSRVLWLRQ ZDWHU WHPSHUDWXUH ZDWHU
WXUEXOHQFH DQG VWUHDP YHORFLW\ DQG ZLOO EH GLIIHUHQW IRU LQGLYLGXDO SDUWV RI ULYHUV $V
HYDOXDWHGE\7KRPDQQDQG0XHOOHUDQG0HWFDOIDQG(GG\YDOXHVIRU.UDQJH
IURPWRGD\EXWDUHPRVWO\LQWKHRUGHURIGD\
1XWULHQWDQGR[\JHQGHPDQGLQJZDVWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQULYHUVDQGVHZDJHRXWOHWVPD\DOVREH
GUDVWLFDOO\UHGXFHGZKHQGUDLQLQJWKURXJKVZDPSDUHDV7KHSXULILFDWLRQFDSDFLW\RIZHWODQGV
LV UHODWHG WR YDULRXV DVSHFWV RI ZHWODQG K\GURORJ\ VXFK DV ZDWHU GHSWK UHWHQWLRQ WLPH DQG
GHJUHHRIFDQDOLVDWLRQ:KHUHZHWODQGVH[LVWWKHUHIRUHDSSURSULDWHZHWODQGSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUV
VKRXOGEHDVVHVVHGRQDQLQGLYLGXDOFDVHEDVLV
6WHS,,3UHVVXUH²6WDWHRIWKH(QYLURQPHQW
7KHLVVXH
7KHVHFRQGVWHSLQWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNUHTXLUHVDQDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHHIIHFWRIWKHLQSXWRI
SROOXWDQWVRQWKHVWDWHRIWKHV\VWHPLWVHOI,QRWKHUZRUGVWRZKDWH[WHQWGRZDWHUTXDOLW\DQG
UHODWHGELRFKHPLFDOSDUDPHWHUVFKDQJHDVDUHVXOWRISROOXWLRQORDGV7KHµVWDWH¶RIWKHZDWHU
V\VWHPLQWKLVFRQWH[WFDQEHGHVFULEHGERWKLQWHUPVRIDELRWLFFRPSRQHQWVHJFRQFHQWUDWLRQ
RISROOXWDQWVR[\JHQOHYHOVDQGELRWLFFRPSRQHQWVHJWURSLFVWDWXVELRORJLFDOSURGXFWLYLW\
(YDOXDWLRQRISRVVLEOHPHWKRGVDQGDSSURDFKHV
7KHPHWKRGVWKDWFDQEHGLVWLQJXLVKHGDUHDVZLWKLQWKHµGULYLQJIRUFHV¶±µSUHVVXUHV¶FRQWH[W
GLUHFWPHDVXUHPHQWDQGVLPXODWLRQPRGHOOLQJDVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH
3UHVVXUH
3RLQWVRXUFHV
'RPHVWLFSROOXWLRQORDG
,QGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQORDG
'LIIXVHVRXUFHV
$WPRVSKHULFSROOXWDQWORDG
3ROOXWDQWODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJ
x
x
6WDWH
%LRWLF
'LUHFWPHDVXUHPHQW
6LPXODWLRQPRGHOOLQJ
4 0DVVEDODQFHV
4 0RGHOVRIIXQGDPHQWDO
SURFHVVHV
4 (PSLULFDOPRGHOV
7URSKLFVWDWXV
3URGXFWLYLW\
$ELRWLF
3ROOXWDQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
2[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQ
7UDQVSDUHQF\
• )LJXUH 0HWKRGVIRU'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVVHVVPHQW6WHS,,3UHVVXUHWR6WDWH
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
:KLOH DV IRU 6WHS , VHFWLRQ GLUHFW PHDVXUHPHQW VDPSOLQJ DQG DQDO\VLV RI SROOXWDQWV
DOJDO GHQVLWLHV WUDQVSDUHQF\ HWF JLYHV WKH PRVW UHDOLVWLF DQG DFFXUDWH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH
VWDWHRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPLWGRHVQRWSURYLGHGHWDLOVRQWKHUHODWLRQEHWZHHQVXFKVWDWHDQGWKH
LQSXWV RI SROOXWDQWV $V D PDQDJHPHQW DQG DVVHVVPHQW WRRO GLUHFW PHDVXUHPHQW SURYLGHV
WKHUHIRUHDPHDQVRIFDOLEUDWLRQDQGYDOLGDWLRQEXWLVGHILFLHQWDVDWRROIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKH
µSUHVVXUH¶µVWDWH¶UHODWLRQZLWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
7KHPRVWZLGHO\DSSOLHGDSSURDFKLVWKHUHIRUHWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIZDWHUTXDOLW\PRGHOV2YHU
WKHSDVW\HDUVFRQVLGHUDEOHHIIRUWKDVEHHQGHYRWHGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIHPSLULFDODQG
IXQGDPHQWDOZDWHUTXDOLW\PRGHOV2QHFDQVDIHO\FRQFOXGHWKDWPRGHOVGHVFULELQJWKHVWDWHRI
ZDWHU V\VWHPV DUH DPRQJ WKH PRVW SURIRXQGO\ VWXGLHG HQYLURQPHQWDO WRSLFV GXULQJ WKH SDVW
GHFDGHV 7KH HDUOLHVW PRGHOV VXFK DV WKDW RI 9ROOHQZHLGHU UHSUHVHQW DQ HPSLULFDOO\
GHULYHGUHODWLRQEHWZHHQH[WHUQDO3ORDGLQJDQGGHSWKRQRQHKDQGDQGWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI
FKORURSK\OODDVDPHDVXUHIRUWKHOHYHORIHXWURSKLFDWLRQRQWKHRWKHUKDQG6LQFHWKLVVLPSOH
PRGHOZDWHUTXDOLW\PRGHOVKDYHUDSLGO\HYROYHGLQWRPRUHFRPSOH[PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDODQG
PXOWLYDULDEOHDSSOLFDWLRQV$QRYHUYLHZRIWKHKLVWRULFDOGHYHORSPHQWRIZDWHUTXDOLW\PRGHO
GHYHORSPHQW LV DPRQJ RWKHUV SUHVHQWHG E\ 7KRPDQQ DQG 0XHOOHU DQG +nNDQVRQ
0RGHOV IRU DVVHVVLQJ ZDWHU TXDOLW\ QRZDGD\V H[LVW LQ DOO NLQGV RI JUDGDWLRQV YDU\LQJ IURP
VXEVWDQFHPDVVEDODQFHVDFFXPXODWLRQ LQSXWRXWSXWSURGXFWLRQHPSLULFDOPRGHOVHJ
OLQNLQJ SROOXWDQW OHYHOV RU H[WHUQDO ORDGV WR DOJDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQ WR YHU\ LQWULFDWH PRGHOV RI
IXQGDPHQWDOSURFHVVHVHJVHGLPHQWZDWHULQWHUDFWLRQSK\WRSODQNWRQJURZWKDQGUHVSLUDWLRQ
0RGHOOLQJSDFNDJHVVXFKDV48$/(277(5%DWKWXE'XIORZ/DNHPDNHU(XWURPRGDQG
:$63 DUH UHDGLO\ DYDLODEOH RQ WKH PDUNHW 6XFK PRGHOV SURYLGH SRZHUIXO WRROV LQ WKH
DVVHVVPHQW RI ZDWHU TXDOLW\ SUREOHPV +RZHYHU PRGHOV DUH QR VWDQG DORQH WRROV VXIILFLHQW
DQGUHOLDEOHGDWDZLOODOZD\VEHUHTXLUHGWRFDOLEUDWHDQGYDOLGDWHWKHPRGHOVDQGHYHQZLWK
VXFKWKHULVNRIµDFFLGHQWDO¶PDWFKHVH[LVWVUHVXOWLQJLQZURQJFRQFOXVLRQV)XUWKHUPRUHWKH
OHYHORIFRPSOH[LW\RIDPRGHOGHSHQGVRQWKHTXDOLW\RIRWKHUVWHSVLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWLWLVRI
OLWWOH XVH WR DSSO\ D FRPSOLFDWHG PRGHO IRU RQH VWHS RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW LI RWKHU VWHSV DUH QRW
VXIILFLHQWO\UHOLDEOH$VIRU6WHS,VHFWLRQLWLVWKHUHIRUHRIFUXFLDOLPSRUWDQFHWKDWWKH
OHYHORIFRPSOH[LW\RIWKHDSSOLHGPRGHOPDWFKHVWKHVSHFLILFFDVHQRWRQO\LQWHUPVRIWKH
UHVXOWVRQHUHTXLUHVWRGHULYHIURPWKHDVVHVVPHQWEXWDOVRLQWHUPVRIGDWDDYDLODELOLW\
,QGHILQLQJVXFKDSSURSULDWHPRGHOFRPSOH[LW\DQXPEHURINH\GHFLVLRQVQHHGWREHWDNHQ
7HPSRUDOUHVROXWLRQ±7KHWHPSRUDOUHVROXWLRQRIPRGHOVFDQEHGLVWLQJXLVKHGLQWRVWDWLFDQG
G\QDPLF7KHVLPSOHVWDSSURDFKLVDVWDWLFPRGHOZKLFKDWWHPSWVWRUHSURGXFHHYHQWVDWRQH
SRLQW LQ WLPH LQ IDFW DV D VQDSVKRW 0RUH DPELWLRXV DUH G\QDPLF PRGHOV ZKLFK IROORZ D
V\VWHPDVLWHYROYHVRYHUWLPH$G\QDPLFPRGHOUHTXLUHVPXFKPRUHGHWDLOHGNQRZOHGJHRI
LQWHUDFWLRQVDVZHOODVVXIILFLHQWWHPSRUDOO\VSUHDGGDWDWRHQDEOHWKHLUFDOLEUDWLRQ
6HH$($7HFKQRORJ\IRUDGHVFULSWLRQRIDQXPEHURIWKHVHPRGHOVDVDSSOLHGZLWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHZRUNRI
WKH(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDO$JHQF\(($
&KDSWHU
6SDWLDOUHVROXWLRQ:KHQDZDWHUV\VWHPLVVXIILFLHQWO\KRPRJHQHRXVVXFKDVIUHTXHQWO\WKH
FDVHLQUHODWLYHO\VKDOORZODNHVZLWKDVXIILFLHQWO\ORQJUHWHQWLRQWLPHDVLPSOHER[PRGHO
' PD\ EH VXIILFLHQW :KHQ UHOHYDQW YDULDWLRQV LQ SK\VLFDO FKHPLFDO DQGRU ELRORJLFDO
SDUDPHWHUV RYHU GHSWK RU GLVWDQFH DUH H[SHFWHG VXFK DV ZLWK GHHSHU ZDWHUV YHUWLFDO
YDULDWLRQV ULYHUV DQG HVWXDULHV KRUL]RQWDO YDULDWLRQV YHUWLFDO DQGRU KRUL]RQWDO GLPHQVLRQV
PD\QHHGWREHDGGHG2QFHGHFLGHGXSRQWKHQXPEHURIGLPHQVLRQVDPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDO
PRGHOUHTXLUHVWKHGHILQLWLRQRIPRGHOVHJPHQWV6HJPHQWVPD\EHGHILQHGHLWKHUWKURXJKWKH
DSSOLFDWLRQRIDVLPSOHJULGRUWKURXJKGHVLJQDWLRQRIGLVWLQJXLVKDEOHSDUWVRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHP
$QH[DPSOHRIWKHODWWHULVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH(ODERUDWLRQRIWKHPRGHOUHTXLUHVIRUHDFK
RI WKH VHJPHQWV WKH GHILQLWLRQ D VHW RI PRGHO HTXDWLRQV UHODWLQJ QHLJKERXULQJ VHJPHQWV
&DOLEUDWLRQRIDPXOWLVHJPHQWPRGHOWKXVUHTXLUHVWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIGDWDRQVWDWHYDULDEOHV
IRUHDFKRIWKHVHJPHQWVDIDFWZKLFKVKRXOGEHWDNHQLQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQZKHQGHILQLQJWKH
DSSURSULDWHOHYHORIFRPSOH[LW\IRUWKHPRGHO
/HYHORIIXQGDPHQWDOSURFHVVHVWREH
DQDO\VHG ± (FRV\VWHPV DUH H[WUHPHO\
FRPSOH[V\VWHPVFRQVLVWLQJRIDODUJH
QXPEHU RI FRPSRQHQWV WKDW DUH
LQWHUUHODWHG WKURXJK YDULRXV SURFHVVHV
VHH %R[ 7KH EDVLV IRU DQ\ ZDWHU
TXDOLW\PRGHOLVWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRID
PDVVEDODQFHIRUDOOFRPSRQHQWVRIWKH
V\VWHPZKHUHDSSURSULDWHSHUVHJPHQW
DVGHVFULEHGDERYH)URPWKHUHRQWKH
FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH PRGHO LV LQFUHDVHG
E\DGGLQJVXEVHTXHQWPRGHOHTXDWLRQV
WKDW GHVFULEH SK\VLFDO FKHPLFDO DQG
ELRORJLFDO HFRV\VWHP SURFHVVHV (DFK
FRPSRQHQW DQG SURFHVV HTXDWLRQ DGGV
WRWKHFRPSOH[LW\RIWKHV\VWHPDQGWKH
UHVXOWFDQEHH[WUHPHO\LQWULFDWH
7KLVOHDGVWRDSDUDGR[2QRQHKDQG
DVFRQFOXGHGE\+nNDQVRQWKH
• )LJXUH([DPSOHRIHVWXDU\VHJPHQWDWLRQ±3RWRPDF
(VWXDU\86$DIWHU7KRPDQQDQG)LW]SDWULFN
UHOLDELOLW\ RI D PRGHO LV WKHRUHWLFDOO\
LQFUHDVHG E\ VWUXFWXULQJ WKH PRGHO VR
WKDWLWLQFOXGHVPRUHIXQGDPHQWDOWUXHOLIHSURFHVVHV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGZLWKHDFKQHZOHYHO
RIFRPSOH[LW\WKHQXPEHURIVWDWHYDULDEOHVIRUZKLFKGDWDLVUHTXLUHGLQRUGHUWRFDOLEUDWHWKH
PRGHODOVRLQFUHDVHV0RGHOFRPSOH[LW\DQGGDWDDYDLODELOLW\VKRXOGWKHUHIRUHPDWFK
7KHEDVLVRIWKHPRGHOVDSSOLHGLQWKLVWKHVLVLVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQ
7KHUHWHQWLRQWLPHRIDZDWHUERG\LVGHILQHGDVWKHWLPHIRUDQDYHUDJHUHQHZDORIWKHYROXPHRIZDWHUFRQWDLQHGE\
WKHERG\±FDOFXODWHGDV4RXW9>\@±ZKHUH4RXWLVWKHULYHURXWIORZIURPWKHZDWHUERG\>P\@DQG9LWVYROXPH>P@
)RUDUHFHQWH[DPSOHVHH+DYHQVHWDOZKRDSSOLHGDVLPSOHER[PRGHOWRVKDOORZODNHVLQ-DSDQ&KLQDDQG
WKH86$
)RUUHFHQWH[DPSOHVRIPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOPRGHOVWRHVWXDULHVVHH/RQLQDQG7XFKNRYHQNRDQG$UKRQGLWVLVHW
DO
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
'HVFULSWLRQRIWKHDSSOLHGDSSURDFK
7KHDSSURDFKSURFODLPHGLQWKLVUHVHDUFKFRQVLVWVRIEDVLFVWHSV
(VWDEOLVKPHQWRIGHVLUHGOHYHORIFRPSOH[LW\
(VWDEOLVKPHQWRIDK\GURORJLFDOEDODQFHRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHP
(VWDEOLVKPHQWRIVXEVWDQFHPDVVEDODQFHV
/HYHORIFRPSOH[LW\
)ROORZLQJWKHGLVFXVVLRQLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQLWLVLPSRUWDQWWRGHWHUPLQHWKHDSSURSULDWH
OHYHORIFRPSOH[LW\IRUWKHPRGHOEDVHGXSRQLWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHV\VWHPDQGLLWKH
DYDLODELOLW\RIGDWD7KHOLPLWHGGDWDDYDLODELOLW\RQWKHWZRFDVHVSRVHVFOHDUUHVWULFWLRQVLQWKLV
UHJDUG)LUVWRIDOOLQERWKFDVHVDVWDWLFDSSURDFKLVDSSOLHGLQYLHZRIWKHDEVHQFHRIVXIILFLHQW
WHPSRUDOO\VSUHDGGDWD)XUWKHUPRUHIRU/DNH9LFWRULDDUHODWLYHO\VKDOORZODNHZKHUHPRUH
RU OHVV FRPSOHWH PL[LQJ RFFXUV %HHWRQ D GLPHQVLRQDO ER[ PRGHO PXFK OLNH WKH
µFRQWLQXRXVO\VWLUUHGWDQNUHDFWRU¶DSSURDFKLQHQJLQHHULQJLVXVHG,QWKHFDVHRIWKH(EULp
ODJRRQ DQ HVWXDU\ ZLWK FOHDUO\ LGHQWLILDEOH VSDWLDO YDULDWLRQV LQ FRQGLWLRQV D GLPHQVLRQDO
PRGHOZLWKVHSDUDWHVHJPHQWVLVVHOHFWHGVHHH[DPSOH)LJXUH,WLVQRWHGWKDWWKHODWWHU
LVRQO\IHDVLEOHEHFDXVHVSDWLDOO\GLYLGHGGDWDRQVWDWHYDULDEOHVFRQFHQWUDWLRQRQSROOXWDQWV
VXUIDFHDUHDGHSWKHWFDOWKRXJKOLPLWHGLVDYDLODEOH
)XUWKHUH[SDQVLRQRIPRGHOFRPSOH[LW\WKURXJKHFRORJLFDOPRGHOOLQJHTXDWLRQVZDVWHVWHGRQ
WKH/DNH9LFWRULDFDVHERWKWKURXJKWKHGHILQLWLRQRIDGGLWLRQDOPRGHOHTXDWLRQVVHH6FKHUHQ
DVZHOODVRQWKHEDVLVRIH[LVWLQJJHQHULFPRGHOVVHH9OLHJKH,QERWKFDVHV
KRZHYHUWKHLQFUHDVHGOHYHORIVRSKLVWLFDWLRQUHTXLUHGVXEVWDQWLDOGDWDDQGXQGHUVWDQGLQJRI
WKHIXQGDPHQWDOSURFHVVHVLQWKHODNH&RQVHTXHQWO\LWZDVFRQFOXGHGWKDWZKLOHZLWKDODUJH
QXPEHU RI DVVXPSWLRQV LW LV SRVVLEOH WR DSSO\ PRUH FRPSOH[ PRGHOV WR FDVHV VXFK DV /DNH
9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDWKHDYDLODEOHGDWDDQGNQRZOHGJHXQGHUVXFKFRQGLWLRQVLV
LQVXIILFLHQWIRUDQDGHTXDWHYDOLGDWLRQRIWKHPRGHO
+\GURORJLFDOEDODQFH
)RUWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIDZDWHUEDODQFHGDWDRQVHYHUDOVWDWHYDULDEOHVLVUHTXLUHG)LUVWRIDOO
GDWDRQGHSWKYROXPHVXUIDFHDUHDDQGFRQWRXUVLVQHHGHGWRGHILQHWKHPRUSKRORJ\RIWKH
ODNH V\VWHP 6HFRQGO\ K\GURORJLFDO GDWD RQ LQIORZ DQG RXWIORZ UDLQIDOO DQG HYDSRUDWLRQ LV
QHHGHGWRFRPSOHWHWKHZDWHUEDODQFH7KHODWWHULVJLYHQE\
(TXDWLRQ
G9
4 LQ4 U 4 RXW 4HY
GW
LQ ZKLFK 9 >P@ UHSUHVHQWV WKH ODNH YROXPH W >\@ LV WLPH DQG 4LQ 4U 4RXW DQG 4HY >P\@
UHSUHVHQWLQIORZUDLQIDOORXWIORZDQGHYDSRUDWLRQUHVSHFWLYHO\,QWKHFDVHRIDGLPHQVLRQDO
ER[ PRGHO LQIORZ DQG RXWIORZ 4LQ DQG 4RXW LQ (TXDWLRQ DUH IURP ULYHUV RQO\ :KHUH
GLIIHUHQW VHJPHQWV DUH GHILQHG K\GURORJLFDO EDODQFHV IRU HDFK RI WKH VHJPHQWV QHHG WR EH
HVWDEOLVKHG4LQDQG4RXWDUHLQWKDWFDVHIURPDQGWRULYHUVDVZHOODVIURPDQGWRQHLJKERXULQJ
VHJPHQWV
&KDSWHU
$QLPSRUWDQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFLVWKHUDWLRRIWKHYROXPHRIWKHZDWHUERG\RUDVHJPHQWWKHUHRI
WRLWVRXWIORZZKLFKUHSUHVHQWVWKHVRFDOOHGK\GUDXOLFGHWHQWLRQWLPHWG>\@WKDWLVWKHWLPH
LW ZRXOG WDNH WR HPSW\ WKH ZDWHU ERG\ WKURXJK LWV RXWIORZ LI DOO LQSXWV RI ZDWHU WR WKH ODNH
FHDVHGDQG4RXWUHPDLQVFRQVWDQW7KHGHWHQWLRQWLPHLVGHILQHGDV
(TXDWLRQ
W G 9
4RXW
,QPDQ\FDVHVGDWDRQUDLQIDOOULYHUIORZVDQGHYDSRUDWLRQDUHDYDLODEOHHYHQLQGDWDSRRU
VLWXDWLRQV :KHUH QRW H[LVWLQJ HVWLPDWHV PD\ EH GHULYHG IURP FRPSDUDEOH VRXUFHV VXFK DV
UDLQIDOOIURPQHLJKERXULQJFRXQWULHVRUIURPPRGHOOLQJ+RZHYHUDPDMRUFRQVWUDLQWLQGDWD
UHOLDELOLW\LVWKHIDFWWKDWIOXFWXDWLRQVLQDOOK\GURORJLFDOIDFWRUVPD\RFFXUERWKVHDVRQDOO\DQG
RQDORQJHUWLPHVFDOH$VDUJXHGIRUH[DPSOHE\.LWHDQG3LSHUHWDO
WKHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHVHIOXFWXDWLRQVDQGWKHLUHIIHFWRQWKHK\GURORJLFDOEDODQFHRID
ODNHUHTXLUHVQRWRQO\UHJXODUGDWDFROOHFWLRQRQK\GURORJLFDOSDUDPHWHUVEXWRIWHQGHPDQGV
DGYDQFHGPDWKHPDWLFDOWHFKQLTXHV)XUWKHUPRUHDVDUJXHGE\%XOWRQHYDSRUDWLRQDQ
LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU LQ WURSLFDO UHJLRQV LV GLIILFXOW WR PHDVXUH DQG UHTXLUHV VSHFLDO VNLOOV DQG
WHFKQLTXHV 7KH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI DQ DGHTXDWH K\GURORJLFDO EDODQFH WKHUHIRUH GHVHUYHV
DSSURSULDWHDWWHQWLRQLQSDUWLFXODULQGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUVLWXDWLRQV
6XEVWDQFHEDODQFHV
$VVXPLQJDFRQVWDQWYROXPHG9GW WKHEDVLFPDVVEDODQFHHTXDWLRQIRUDVXEVWDQFHLQD
ZDWHUERG\LV
(TXDWLRQ
9
G& $
GW
: $ 5 $ 4RXW & $ ZKHUH &$ >JP@ UHSUHVHQWV WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI SROOXWDQW $ LQ WKH ZDWHU ERG\ :$ >J\@
UHSUHVHQWV WKH ORDG RI SROOXWDQW $ DQG 5$ >J\@ LV WKH UDWH RI ORVV SURFHVVHV WKURXJK ZKLFK
SROOXWDQW$LVµORVW¶IURPWKHV\VWHP,QWKLVPRVWVLPSOHIRUPRIWKHPDVVEDODQFHHTXDWLRQ
:$UHSUHVHQWVWKHWRWDORIDOOSROOXWDQWLQSXWVLQWRWKHV\VWHPLQFOXGLQJSRLQWVRXUFHVGRPHVWLF
DQG LQGXVWULDO HIIOXHQWV DQG QRQSRLQW VRXUFHV ODQG UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ DQG DWPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQ,QIDFWWKHUHIRUH:$JURXSVDQXPEHURILQSXWVWKDWPD\EHVSOLWXSWRUHDG
(TXDWLRQ
:$
: $GRPHVWLF : $LQGXVWULDO : $UXQRII : $GHSRVLWLRQ ,QFDVHRIDGLPHQVLRQDOVHJPHQWHGDSSURDFKWKHPDVVEDODQFHPD\EHUHIRUPXODWHGWR
(TXDWLRQ
9L
G& $L
GW
>
@
L
:$L ¦ & $V U D L r4LQV U D L r 5$L 4RXW
& $L 2IWHQDOVRUHIHUUHGWRDVµUHVLGHQFHWLPH¶
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
L
ZKHUH L UHSUHVHQWV D JLYHQ VHJPHQW RI WKH V\VWHP 9L : $L 4RXW
& $L DQG 5 $L UHSUHVHQW
UHVSHFWLYHO\YROXPHORDGRISROOXWDQW$RXWIORZFRQFHQWUDWLRQRISROOXWDQW$DQGUDWHRIORVV
SURFHVVHVLQVHJPHQWL & $V U D L r >JP@LVWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRISROOXWDQW$IURPLQIORZLQJZDWHU
VWUHDPV ZKLFK FRXOG EH IURP VHD V ULYHUVUDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDDQGRUVHJPHQWV
QHLJKERXULQJ VHJPHQW L L“ DQG 4LQV U D L r >P\@ LV WKH DFWXDO ZDWHU LQIORZ IURP WKH VDPH
VRXUFHV
7KHSDUDPHWHU5$LQ(TXDWLRQDQG(TXDWLRQUHSUHVHQWVWKHQHWSROOXWDQWORVVSURFHVV
LQ WKH V\VWHP $V FDQ EH GHULYHG IURP )LJXUH SDJH UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH ELRFKHPLFDO
SURFHVVHVLQYROYLQJQXWULHQWVWKHNH\SURFHVVHVLQWKLVDUHVHGLPHQWDWLRQDQGUHVXVSHQVLRQ)RU
QLWURJHQPRUHRYHUGHQLWULILFDWLRQPD\SOD\DNH\UROHSDUWLFXODUO\LQFDVHRIORQJUHWHQWLRQ
WLPHV$JHQHUDODVVXPSWLRQWDNHQLVWKDWWKHUDWHVRIORVVSURFHVVHVDUHOLQHDUWRWKHQXWULHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQZKLFKGHULYHVIRU5$WKHHTXDWLRQ
(TXDWLRQ
5$
. $& $9 ZKHUH.$>\@UHSUHVHQWWKHRYHUDOOORVVUDWHRIQXWULHQW$,QFDVHVHGLPHQWDWLRQUHVXVSHQVLRQ
LVWKHGRPLQDQWSURFHVVVXFKDVWKHFDVHIRU3.$FDQEHGHILQHGDV
(TXDWLRQ
.$
Y V$
+
ZKHUH Y V$ >P\@ LV WKH QHW VHGLPHQWDWLRQ UDWH VHGLPHQWDWLRQ ± UHVXVSHQVLRQ DQG + >P@
UHSUHVHQWV WKH GHSWK RI WKH ZDWHU ERG\ ,GHDOO\ YDOXHV IRU Y V$ VKRXOG EH GHULYHG WKURXJK
PHDVXUHPHQWVLQWKHV\VWHPLWVHOI6XFKDQDO\VLVKRZHYHUUHTXLUHVVHGLPHQWFRUHVDPSOLQJ
DQGDJHGHWHUPLQDWLRQDWHFKQLFDOO\DQGUHVRXUFHGHPDQGLQJZRUN$OVRVLQFHVHGLPHQWDWLRQ
UDWHV DUH JHQHUDOO\ QRW XQLIRUP RYHU D ZDWHU ERG\ PXOWLSOH VDPSOHV VKRXOG EH WDNHQ DQG
DQDO\VHG 8QOHVV VXIILFLHQW UHVRXUFHV DUH DYDLODEOH LW LV WKHUHIRUH JHQHUDOO\ QRW IHDVLEOH WR
DFWXDOO\ PHDVXUH .$ DQG RQH RIWHQ KDV WR UHYHUW DOWHUQDWLYH PHDQV VXFK DV GDWD IURP RWKHU
VLPLODUV\VWHPVRUHPSLULFDOUHODWLRQV)RU3VXFKDQHPSLULFDOUHODWLRQIRUHVWLPDWLQJ Y V3 KDV
EHHQGHWHUPLQHGE\9ROOHQZHLGHU
(TXDWLRQ
Y V3
T u WG ZKHUHT>P\@LVWKHK\GUDXOLFORDGLQJRIWKHV\VWHP+WG
)RUQXWULHQWVLQVWHDGRIORVVRIWHQWKHDOWHUQDWLYHWHUPµUHWHQWLRQ¶LVXVHG
'HQLWULILFDWLRQLVWKHUHGXFWLYHSURFHVVZKHUHE\KHWHURWURSKLFEDFWHULDXWLOLVHQLWUDWHDVDWHUPLQDOHOHFWURQDFFHSWRULQ
UHVSLUDWLRQDQGUHGXFHLWWRPDLQO\JDVHRXVSURGXFWVRUDPPRQLXP'HQLWULILFDWLRQFDQEHDQLPSRUWDQWSURFHVVLQWKH
QLWURJHQF\FOHDVLWGHFUHDVHVWKHDPRXQWRIPLQHUDOQLWURJHQDYDLODEOHWRWKHSULPDU\SURGXFHUVVLQFHWKHJDVHRXV
SURGXFWVPDLQO\1DQG12ODUJHO\GLIIXVHLQWRWKHDWPRVSKHUH7KHSURFHVVRIGHQLWULILFDWLRQWDNHVPDLQO\SODFHLQ
VHGLPHQWVEXWSDUWO\DOVRLQWKHZDWHUFROXPQ)RUIXUWKHUH[SODQDWLRQRIWKHDVSHFWRIGHQLWULILFDWLRQVHH$QQH[
&KDSWHU
)RU1WKHVLWXDWLRQLVPRUHFRPSOLFDWHGVLQFHGHQLWULILFDWLRQLVRIWHQDQLPSRUWDQWORVVIDFWRU
6HGLPHQWFRUHVDPSOLQJZLOOGHWHUPLQHWKHQHWVHGLPHQWDWLRQUHVXVSHQVLRQORVVEXWGDWDWKXV
REWDLQHG ZLOO H[FOXGH WKH IDFWRU RI GHQLWULILFDWLRQ 2IWHQ WKH ODWWHU LV WKHUHIRUH GHWHUPLQHG
VHSDUDWHO\E\PHDQVRIODERUDWRU\H[SHULPHQWV)RUWXQDWHO\LQFHUWDLQFDVHVFRPSDUDEOHGDWD
FDQEHIRXQGLQOLWHUDWXUH)RUH[DPSOHDQHPSLULFDOUHODWLRQIRURYHUDOOQXWULHQWORVVKDVEHHQ
GHWHUPLQHGE\1L[RQHWDOEDVHGRQGDWDIRUHVWXDULHVRIDODUJHYDULHW\RIVL]HDQG
FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRQWKH$WODQWLFFRDVW
(TXDWLRQ
1 UHWDLQHG
/RJ T ZKHUH1UHWDLQHGUHSUHVHQWVWKHORVVLQSXWPLQXVRXWSXWRI1LQWKHV\VWHPZKLFKLQFOXGHV
WKHUHZLWKWKHMRLQWHIIHFWVRIVHGLPHQWDWLRQUHVXVSHQVLRQDQGGHQLWULILFDWLRQ
3URYLGHGWKDWGDWDDQGWKHVWDWHYDULDEOHVYROXPHLQDQGRXWIORZVFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIQXWULHQWV
DUHDYDLODEOHWKHPDVVEDODQFHHTXDWLRQVFDQQRZEHDSSOLHGWRPRGHOWKHV\VWHP)RUDVWHS
LQSXW(TXDWLRQFDQEHGHULYHGWR
(TXDWLRQ & $
:$
4RXW . $9
ª
­§ 4
­ § 4RXW
·½
· ½º
. $ ¸W ¾» & $ H[S ®¨ RXW . $ ¸W ¾ « H[S ® ¨
¹¿
¹ ¿¼»
¯© 9
¯ © 9
¬«
ZKHUH W >\@ UHSUHVHQWV WLPH DQG & $ WKH LQLWLDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI SROOXWDQW $ DW W R %HFDXVH
FKDQJHVLQSROOXWDQWLQSXWDUHPRVWO\JUDGXDOLQPDQ\FDVHVDVWHDG\VWDWHFRQGLWLRQFDQEH
DVVXPHGDVDQDSSUR[LPDWLRQ7KHPDVVEDODQFHDWVWHDG\VWDWHFRQGLWLRQIROORZVGLUHFWO\IURP
(TXDWLRQ
(TXDWLRQ
G& $
GW
Ÿ &$
:$
4 RXW . $9
$VDFKDUDFWHULVWLFWLPHIRUUHVSRQVHWRDVWHSLQSXWLVRIWHQWDNHQWKHWLPHQHHGHGWRUHGXFHWKH
GHYLDWLRQLQWKHFDOFXODWHGFRQFHQWUDWLRQRISROOXWDQW$EHWZHHQ(TXDWLRQVWHSORDGDQG
(TXDWLRQVWHDG\VWDWHWRDIUDFWLRQHRIWKHRULJLQDOGHYLDWLRQ7KLVUHVSRQVHWLPH¦$
LVJLYHQE\
(TXDWLRQ
9$
& & $66
œ $
4
& $ & $66
. $ RXW
9
H
ZKHUH & $66 UHSUHVHQWVWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRISROOXWDQWV$DWVWHDG\VWDWHFRQGLWLRQV
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
6WHS,,,6WDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQW,PSDFW
7KHLVVXH
7KHDFWXDOLPSDFWRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOGHJUDGDWLRQRIZDWHUV\VWHPVPD\UHVXOWLQGLIIHUHQW
DGYHUVH HIIHFWV WR WKH KXPDQ V\VWHP )LJXUH SDJH :DWHU TXDOLW\ SUREOHPV FDXVH
FKDQJHV LQ WKH HFRV\VWHP ZKLFK LQ WXUQ PD\ DIIHFW WKH KXPDQ V\VWHPV WKURXJK D ORVV LQ
IXQFWLRQVDQGYDOXHVIRUH[DPSOHWKURXJKDGHFUHDVHLQILVKUHVRXUFHVIRUFRQVXPSWLRQRUDQ
LQFUHDVHLQZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHV$IUDPHZRUNIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRILPSDFWVLVSUHVHQWHGLQ
WKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQ$VDQQRXQFHGLQVHFWLRQWKHDVVHVVPHQWRILPSDFWVIDOOVRXWVLGHRI
WKHµTXDQWLWDWLYHZLQGRZ¶RIWKLVUHVHDUFK)LJXUHSDJH7KHPDLQUHDVRQIRUWKLVLVWKH
GLIILFXOW\LQTXDQWLI\LQJYDOXHVRIHFRV\VWHPVDQGWKHODUJHGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHEDVLVUHTXLUHGIRU
VXFKTXDQWLWDWLYHDVVHVVPHQW
$IUDPHZRUNIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIVWDWHLPSDFWUHODWLRQV
$VGLVSOD\HGLQ)LJXUHWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHDQWKURSRJHQLFLPSDFWVRIFKDQJHVEURXJKW
WRHFRV\VWHPVUHTXLUHVWZRVWHSVWREHWDNHQ
$QDQDO\VLVRIHFRV\VWHPIXQFWLRQVLQIDFWWKHV\VWHP¶VFDSDFLW\WRSURYLGHJRRGV
VXFK DV ILVK SURFHVV DQG GULQNLQJ ZDWHU DQG VHUYLFHV VXFK DV WUDQVSRUW DQG
UHFUHDWLRQDORSSRUWXQLWLHVDQG
$QDQDO\VLVRIWKHYDOXHVWKDWPD\EHDWWDFKHGWRVXFKIXQFWLRQV
6WDWH
,PSDFW
%LRWLF
8VHYDOXHV
7URSKLFVWDWXV
3URGXFWLYLW\
$ELRWLF
3ROOXWDQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
2[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQ
7UDQVSDUHQF\
x
)LVKUHVRXUFHV
5HFUHDWLRQDOYDOXH
'ULQNLQJZDWHU
,QGXVWULDODQGDJULFXOWXUDOSURFHVV
ZDWHU
x
)XQFWLRQVDVVHVVPHQW
9DOXHDVVHVVPHQW
TXDOLWDWLYHTXDQWLWDWLYH
1RQXVHYDOXHV
$PHQLW\LPSDFWV
+HDOWKLPSDFWV
(FRV\VWHPLQWHJULW\HJ
%LRGLYHUVLW\
• )LJXUH 0HWKRGVIRU'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVVHVVPHQW6WHS,,,6WDWHWR,PSDFW
2QO\WKHPRVWSHUWLQHQWSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWVDUHOLVWHGKHUH7KHVHFWLRQEHORZLQSDUWLFXODU)LJXUHSURYLGHVD
PRUHFRPSOHWHRYHUYLHZRIVXFKLPSDFWV
&KDSWHU
$FFRUGLQJWR'H*URRWHWDOHDUO\UHIHUHQFHVWRWKHFRQFHSWRIHFRV\VWHPIXQFWLRQV
DQG WKHLU HFRQRPLF YDOXH GDWH EDFN IURP WKH ¶V UHFHQWO\ IROORZHG E\ DQ DOPRVW
H[SRQHQWLDOJURZWKLQSXEOLFDWLRQVRQWKHYDOXHVRIQDWXUDOHFRV\VWHPVH[DPSOHVRIZKLFKDUH
SUHVHQWHGE\%LQJKDPHWDO%RFNVWDHOHWDO&RQVWDQ]DDQG)DUEHU'H
*URRW'H*URRWHWDO)DUEHUHWDO/LPEXUJHWDO7XUQHUHWDO
7XUQHUHWDO7XUQHUHWDODQG7XUQHU'HVSLWHWKLVLQFUHDVHLQ
DWWHQWLRQ D FRPSUHKHQVLYH IUDPHZRUN IRU WKH LQWHJUDWHG DVVHVVPHQW DQG YDOXDWLRQ RI
HFRV\VWHP IXQFWLRQV UHPDLQV HOXVLYH 7KH IUDPHZRUN SUHVHQWHG EHORZ WKHUHIRUH SUHVHQWV D
FURVVFXWRIGLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHV
$QDO\VLVRIHFRV\VWHPIXQFWLRQV
7KH DVVHVVPHQW RI LPSDFWV IURP FKDQJHV EURXJKW WR HFRV\VWHPV UHTXLUHV ILUVW RI DOO DQ
LGHQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHIXQFWLRQVRIHFRV\VWHPVGHILQHGE\'H*URRWDV
³(FRV\VWHP IXQFWLRQV DUH WKH FDSDFLW\ RI QDWXUDO SURFHVVHV DQG FRPSRQHQWV WR SURYLGH JRRGV DQG
VHUYLFHVWKDWVDWLVI\KXPDQQHHGVGLUHFWO\RULQGLUHFWO\´'H*URRW
9DULRXVUHVHDUFKHUVHJ%LQJKDPHWDO&RQVWDQ]DHWDO'H*URRWHWDO
7XUQHUHWDO7XUQHUSURYLGHRYHUYLHZVRIHFRV\VWHPIXQFWLRQV$FFRUGLQJWR'H
*URRWHWDOWKHIROORZLQJW\SHVRIIXQFWLRQVFDQEHGLVWLQJXLVKHG
5HJXODWLRQ IXQFWLRQV ± UHODWH WR WKH FDSDFLW\ RI HFRV\VWHPV WR UHJXODWH HVVHQWLDO
HFRORJLFDOSURFHVVHVDQGOLIHVXSSRUWV\VWHPVWKURXJKELRFKHPLFDOF\FOHV,QDGGLWLRQ
WRPDLQWDLQLQJHFRV\VWHPKHDOWKWKHVHIXQFWLRQVSURYLGHVHUYLFHVWKDWKDYHGLUHFWDQG
LQGLUHFW EHQHILWV WR KXPDQV Š HJ FOHDQ ZDWHU ELRORJLFDO GHJHQHUDWLRQ RI ZDVWH
FOLPDWHUHJXODWLRQ
+DELWDWIXQFWLRQV±UHODWHWRWKHSURYLVLRQRIUHIXJHDQGUHSURGXFWLRQKDELWDWWRWKH
FRQVHUYDWLRQRIELRORJLFDODQGJHQHWLFGLYHUVLW\DQGHYROXWLRQDU\SURFHVVHV
3URGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV ± UHODWHV WR WKH SURYLVLRQ RI JRRGV IRU KXPDQ FRQVXPSWLRQ
UDQJLQJ IURP IRRG DQG UDZ PDWHULDO WR HQHUJ\ VRXUFHV DQG JHQHWLF PHGLFLQDO DQG
RUQDPHQWDOPDWHULDO
,QIRUPDWLRQIXQFWLRQV±UHODWHWRWKHSURYLVLRQRIDQHVVHQWLDOµUHIHUHQFHIXQFWLRQ¶DQG
FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH PDLQWHQDQFH RI KXPDQ KHDOWK E\ SURYLGLQJ RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU
UHIOHFWLRQVSLULWXDOHQULFKPHQWFRJQLWLYHGHYHORSPHQWDQGDHVWKHWLFH[SHULHQFH
$QDO\VLVRIHFRV\VWHPYDOXHV
7KHQH[WVWHSLVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHYDOXHVRIWKRVHIXQFWLRQVZKLFKLVDQDVSHFWQRWRQO\UHODWHG
WRPHDVXUDEOHHFRQRPLFYDOXHVŠVXFKDVEHQHILWVIURPILVKVDOHVŠEXWDOVRPRUHVXEMHFWLYH
YDOXHV Š VXFK DV ELRGLYHUVLW\ DQG UHFUHDWLRQDO YDOXH /LWHUDWXUH SURYLGHV YDULRXV ZD\V WR
FODVVLI\ YDOXHV EXW WKH PRVW FRPPRQ GLYLVLRQ LV LQWR IRXU FDWHJRULHV VXFK DV DSSOLHG IRU
H[DPSOHE\7XUQHUHWDO7XUQHUHWDODQG7XUQHU
/DUJHUZDWHUERGLHVDUHNQRZQWREHLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQUHJXODWLQJWKHORFDOIRUODNHVDQGJOREDOIRURFHDQVFOLPDWH
$QDOWHUQDWLYHFDWHJRUL]DWLRQRIYDOXHVLVVXJJHVWHGIRUH[DPSOHE\'H*URRWHWDOZKRGLYLGHYDOXHVLQWR
µHFRORJLFDOYDOXHV¶EDVHGRQHFRORJLFDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\µVRFLRFXOWXUDOYDOXHV¶EDVHGRQHTXLW\DQGFXOWXUDOSHUFHSWLRQV
DQGµHFRQRPLFYDOXHV¶EDVHGRQHIILFLHQF\DQGFRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVV
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
'LUHFW XVH YDOXH ± $ULVHV IURP KXPDQ GLUHFW XWLOL]DWLRQ RI HFRV\VWHPV IRU H[DPSOH
WKURXJK WKH VDOH RU FRQVXPSWLRQ RI ILVK UHFUHDWLRQ DQG WKH SURYLVLRQ RI GULQNLQJ
SURFHVVDQGLUULJDWLRQZDWHU
,QGLUHFWXVHYDOXH±6WHPVIURPWKHLQGLUHFWXWLOL]DWLRQRIHFRV\VWHPV)RUH[DPSOHD
ULYHUPD\FRQWDLQVSDZQLQJDUHDVIRUFHUWDLQILVKVSHFLHVKDUYHVWHGHOVHZKHUHRUPD\
EHLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHVXUURXQGLQJWHUUHVWULDOHFRV\VWHPV2WKHUYDOXHVRILPSRUWDQFHDUH
IRU H[DPSOH UHJXODWRU\ IXQFWLRQV IRU FOLPDWH DQG IORRG ZKLFK PLJKW KDYH LQGLUHFW
YDOXHV
2SWLRQYDOXH±5HODWHVWRIXWXUHXVHYDOXHVLQWHUPVRIDVVXULQJUHVRXUFHVDQGEHQHILWV
WREHSUHVHUYHGIRUWKHIXWXUH$µTXDVL¶RSWLRQYDOXHRIWHQUHIHUUHGWRLVWKHYDOXHRI
DYRLGLQJLUUHYHUVLEOHGHFLVLRQXQWLOQHZLQIRUPDWLRQUHYHDOVZKHWKHUHFRV\VWHPVKDYH
YDOXHVWKDWZHDUHFXUUHQWO\QRWDZDUHRI
([LVWHQFH YDOXH ± $VVRFLDWHV ZLWK EHQHILWV GHULYHG IURP WKH NQRZOHGJH WKDW D
UHVRXUFH VXFK DV D UDUH VSHFLHV RU DQ HQWLUH HFRV\VWHP LV PDLQWDLQHG %LRGLYHUVLW\
FRQVHUYDWLRQLVRIWHQFDWHJRUL]HGXQGHUWKLVFDWHJRU\2WKHUH[LVWHQFHYDOXHVUHODWHWR
DPHQLW\ DHVWKHWLFV KHDOWK SROOXWHG ZDWHU PD\ FDXVH ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV DQG
EHTXHVWSUHVHUYHWKHHQYLURQPHQWIRUIXWXUHJHQHUDWLRQV
7KHILUVWWKUHHFDWHJRULHVDUHRIWHQJURXSHGLQWRVRFDOOHGµXVHYDOXHV¶ZLWKWKHODWWHUIDOOLQJ
LQWRWKHFDWHJRU\RIµQRQXVHYDOXHV¶
,QSUDFWLFHWKHYDOXDWLRQRIJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVSURYLGHGE\DTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPVLVFRPSOLFDWHG
,GHDOO\DOOYDOXHVZRXOGEHH[SUHVVHGLQPRQHWDU\WHUPVVLQFHWKLVZRXOGHQDEOHWKHZHLJKLQJ
RIHQYLURQPHQWDOYDOXHVLQSROLF\PDNLQJ)RUSURGXFWVGLUHFWO\FROOHFWHGRUKDUYHVWHGIURP
WKHHFRV\VWHPKDYLQJDGLUHFWXVHYDOXHDQGVROGRQWKHPDUNHWRUFRQVXPHGVXFKPRQHWDU\
YDOXDWLRQ LV HDVLO\ FDSWXUHG $V VWDWHG E\ )UHHPDQ LQ WKHVH FDVHV WKH YDOXH RI WKH
IXQFWLRQ LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH FRVW RI KDUYHVWLQJ RU SURGXFWLRQ RI WKH JRRGV WKH TXDQWLW\ RI
JRRGV SURGXFHG DQG WKHLU PDUNHW SULFH )RU RWKHU W\SHV RI JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV VXFK DV
WUDQVSRUWRUUHFUHDWLRQDOYDOXHVRUWKHJOREDOIXQFWLRQVRIELRGLYHUVLW\DQGFOLPDWHUHJXODWLRQ
VXFK YDOXDWLRQ FDQ KRZHYHU EHFRPH H[WUHPHO\ FRPSOLFDWHG 7KH SUREOHP EHFRPHV HYHQ
PRUHGLIILFXOWIRURSWLRQDQGH[LVWHQFHYDOXHV
,QVXFKFDVHVZKHUHGLUHFWPDUNHWYDOXDWLRQLVWKXVQRWSRVVLEOHRWKHUWHFKQLTXHVVKRXOGEH
UHYHUWHGWR([DPSOHVRIVXFKWHFKQLTXHVDUHLQGLUHFWPDUNHWYDOXDWLRQWKURXJKVWXGLHVDLPHG
DW GHWHUPLQLQJ VWDNHKROGHUV¶ :LOOLQJQHVV WR 3D\ :73 RU :LOOLQJQHVV WR $FFHSW :7$
FRPSHQVDWLRQIRUWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIVHUYLFHVDVGHVFULEHGE\'H*URRWHWDODQG)DUEHU
HW DO 6XFK VWXGLHV DUH FRQGXFWHG WKURXJK LQWHUYLHZV JURXS HYDOXDWLRQV ZRUNVKRSV
HWFRUTXHVWLRQQDLUHVDQGPD\FRQVHTXHQWO\EHWLPHDQGUHVRXUFHFRQVXPLQJ
$QRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNIRULPSDFWDVVHVVPHQW
$QRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQGDVVHVVPHQWRILPSDFWVVWHPPLQJIURPFKDQJHV
EURXJKWWRWKHVWDWHRIZDWHUV\VWHPVLVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH&DWHJRULHVRIIXQFWLRQVDQG
YDOXHV DUH EDVHG XSRQ WKH DERYHGHVFULEHG RYHUYLHZ 6SHFLILF IXQFWLRQV DQG YDOXHV ZHUH
LGHQWLILHGWRPDWFKWKHSDUWLFXODUFLUFXPVWDQFHVUHODWHGWRZDWHUV\VWHPV
&KDSWHU
(FRV\VWHPFKDUDFWHULVWLFVSURFHVVHVVWUXFWXUH
5HJXODWRU\
IXQFWLRQV
3URGXFWLRQ
IXQFWLRQV
+DELWDWIXQFWLRQV
S :DWHUVXSSO\
S &OLPDWHUHJXODWLRQ
S 1XWULHQWF\FOH
UHJXODWLRQ
S :DVWHWUHDWPHQW
S %LRORJLFDOUHJXODWLRQ
S 5HSURGXFWLRQ
QXUVHU\IXQFWLRQ
S 5HIXJLXPIXQFWLRQ
SURYLGLQJOLYLQJ
VSDFHIRUIORUDDQG
IDXQD
S
S
S
S
S
)RRGSURGXFWV
5DZPDWHULDOV
*HQHWLFUHVRXUFHV
0HGLFLQDOUHVRXUFHV
2UQDPHQWDO
UHVRXUFHV
,QIRUPDWLRQ
IXQFWLRQV
S $HVWKHWLFIHDWXUHV
S 5HFUHDWLRQ
S &XOWXUDODQGDUWLVWLF
LQIRUPDWLRQ
S 6SLULWXDODQGKLVWRULF
LQIRUPDWLRQ
S 6FLHQFHHGXFDWLRQ
(FRV\VWHPIXQFWLRQV
8VHYDOXHV
'LUHFWXVHYDOXH
S
S
S
S
S
)RRGSURGXFWVILVK
5HFUHDWLRQ
'ULQNLQJZDWHU
:DWHUIRULUULJDWLRQ
3URFHVVZDWHU
1RQXVHYDOXHV
,QGLUHFWXVHYDOXH
S 5HSURGXFWLRQRI
DTXDWLFUHVRXUFHV
S 0LFURFOLPDWH
UHJXODWLRQ
S )ORRGFRQWURO
S (FRORJLFDOVXSSRUW
IXQFWLRQV
2SWLRQYDOXH
([LVWHQFHYDOXH
S 3UHVHUYDWLRQRI
IXWXUHXVHRSWLRQ
S ,QFUHDVHG
LQIRUPDWLRQLQWKH
IXWXUH
S 3UHVHUYDWLRQRI
(FRV\VWHPLQWHJULW\
%LRGLYHUVLW\
S +HDOWK
S $PHQLW\
S %HTXHVW
7RWDO9DOXH
• )LJXUH 2YHUDOOIUDPHZRUNIRUVWDWHLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWUHODWHGWRZDWHUV\VWHPV
&DWHJRULHVRIIXQFWLRQVDQGYDOXHVZHUHEDVHGXSRQ'H*URRWHWDO7XUQHUHWDO
7XUQHUHWDODQG7XUQHU7KHDFWXDOO\OLVWHGIXQFWLRQVDQGYDOXHVDUHDGDSWHGWRWKH
SDUWLFXODUFDVHRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQ
6WHS,9'HILQLWLRQRIUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV
*HQHUDO
6WHS,9RIWKH'36,5LQYROYHVWKHGHILQLWLRQRIDSSURSULDWHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVIRUPLWLJDWLRQ
RI WKH ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ SUREOHP 6XFK UHVSRQVH PHDVXUHV PLJKW LQYROYH D ODUJH YDULHW\ RI
PHDVXUHV LQFOXGLQJ WHFKQRORJLFDO RSWLRQV HJ ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW HFRORJLFDO VROXWLRQV
HJIRUHVWUHVWRUDWLRQHFRQRPLFDOVROXWLRQVHJSD\PHQWRIFRPSHQVDWLRQIRUGDPDJHDQG
LQVWLWXWLRQDO VROXWLRQV HJ XUEDQ SODQQLQJ HFRWD[HV $ IUDPHZRUN IRU WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI
DSSURSULDWHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVLVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQ
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
$IUDPHZRUNIRUWKHGHILQLWLRQRIUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV
$VDUJXHGE\-¡UJHQVHQDQG9ROOHQZHLGHUWKHFRUHLVVXHLQPDQDJLQJDZDWHUERG\LV
WR ILQG WKH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH VRFDOOHG H[WHUQDO IRUFLQJ IXQFWLRQV DQG WKH LQWHUQDO VWDWH
YDULDEOHV)RUFLQJIXQFWLRQVFDQEHHLWKHUFRQWUROODEOHŠHJLQSXWRISROOXWDQWVDQGLQDQG
RXWIORZ RI ZDWHU Š RU QRQFRQWUROODEOH Š HJ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ ZLQG VRODU UDGLDWLRQ Š DQG
HLWKHU PDQLQGXFHG RU QDWXUDO 6WDWH YDULDEOHV DUH IRU H[DPSOH SK\WRSODQNWRQ SROOXWDQW DQG
ILVKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHZDWHUERG\'HILQLQJSRVVLEOHUHVSRQVHVPHDVXUHVWKHUHIRUHLQYROYHV
L WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH IRUFLQJ IXQFWLRQV WKURXJK ZKLFK WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO VWDWH FDQ EH
LQIOXHQFHGLLWKHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHLUFRQWUROODELOLW\HJLQSXWRISROOXWDQWVDUHFRQWUROODEOH
LQIOXHQFHGWKURXJKIRUH[DPSOHZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWZKLOHLQIORZDQGRXWIORZDUHGLIILFXOWWR
PDQLSXODWHDQGLLLRQWKHEDVLVRIVXFKWKHGHILQLWLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHVROXWLRQV
$VSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVPD\EHGHILQHGIRUWKHYDULRXVHOHPHQWVRIWKH
'36,5FDXVHHIIHFWFKDLQ
D $W WKH GULYLQJ IRUFHV OHYHO WKURXJK SODQQLQJ RI ODQGXVH DQG DJULFXOWXUDO
GHYHORSPHQW HJ SUHVHUYDWLRQ RI QDWXUDO YHJHWDWLRQ RQ VKRUHOLQHV GHPRJUDSKLFV
HJGLVFRXUDJHPHQWRIµPRYHWRFRDVWDOFLWLHV¶WKURXJKWD[UHJLPHVLQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ
HJ GHVLJQDWHG LQGXVWULDO ]RQHV RU LQWURGXFWLRQ RI HFRWD[HV DQG VRLO PDQDJHPHQW
HJHURVLRQSURWHFWLRQWKURXJKIRUHVWSUHVHUYDWLRQ
E $W WKH SUHVVXUHV OHYHO WKURXJK SROOXWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV VXFK DV ZDVWHZDWHU
WUHDWPHQWHQGRISLSHDQGFOHDQHUSURGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVDWVRXUFH
F $W WKH VWDWH OHYHO WKURXJK FKDQJHV WR WKH SK\VLFDO V\VWHP HJ FUHDWLQJ VKRUWFXWV
EHWZHHQ SDUWV RI ZDWHU ERGLHV RU RSHQLQJV EHWZHHQ ODJRRQV DQG WKH RSHQ RFHDQ WR
LQFUHDVHZDWHUIOX[HVRUWKHHFRORJLFDOV\VWHPHJWKURXJKWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIQHZ
VSHFLHV
G $W WKH LPSDFW OHYHO IRU H[DPSOH WKURXJK DEDWHPHQW RI ORVV RI DPHQLWLHV WKURXJK
SODQWDWLRQ RI YHJHWDWLRQ RQ FRDVWDO ]RQHV RU WKURXJK WKH LPSURYHPHQW RI KHDOWK
IDFLOLWLHVWRFXUHZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHV&RPSHQVDWLRQHJSURYLGLQJIDFLOLWLHVVXFKDV
WUDLQLQJDQGDOWHUQDWLYHZRUNWRILVKHUPHQWRFRPSHQVDWHIRUORVVLQILVKFDWFKLVDOVR
VHHQDVLPSDFWOHYHOUHVSRQVHV
'ULYLQJIRUFHV
3UHVVXUH
6WDWH
,PSDFW
D
E
F
G
/DQGXVHSODQQLQJ
'HPRJUDSKLFSODQQLQJ
,QGXVWULDOGHYHORSPHQW
SODQQLQJ
$JULFXOWXUDOGHYHORSPHQW
SODQQLQJ
6RLOPDQDJHPHQW
5HVSRQVH
$WVRXUFHSROOXWLRQ
UHGXFWLRQ
(QGRISLSHSROOXWLRQ
UHGXFWLRQ
&KDQJHVWRSK\VLFDO
V\VWHP
&KDQJHVWRHFRORJLFDO
V\VWHP
,PSDFWPLWLJDWLRQ
&RPSHQVDWLRQ
• )LJXUH 0HWKRGVIRU'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVVHVVPHQW6WHS,95HVSRQVHVDQG$FWLRQV
&KDSWHU
,W LV QRWHG WKDW WKH SRVVLEOH UHVSRQVH PHDVXUHV SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH DUH QRQH[FOXVLYH
'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH SDUWLFXODULWLHV RI WKH VLWXDWLRQ RWKHU RSWLRQV PLJKW EH GHILQHG 0RUHRYHU
)LJXUHSUHVHQWVWKHRSWLRQVRQO\LQDJHQHULFPDQQHUWKHZD\LQZKLFKWKHVHUHVSRQVH
PHDVXUHVDUHHYHQWXDOO\GHILQHGLVGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHLQGLFDWRUVXVHGLQWKHYDULRXVHOHPHQWVRI
WKH'36,5DVVHVVPHQWVHFWLRQDVZHOODVWKHPRGHOVPHWKRGVXVHGIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQW
RIWKHLQWHUOLQNLQJVWHSV)RUH[DPSOHLQRUGHUWREHDEOHWRDVVHVVWKHHIIHFWRIDFKDQJHLQ
ODQGXVHDSRVVLEOHUHVSRQVHQHHGVWREHGHVFULEHGLQWHUPVRIDUHDVRIODQGRIFHUWDLQW\SHV
WKH µIXQFWLRQDO YDULDEOH¶ LQ (TXDWLRQ SDJH WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI ZDVWHZDWHU
WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV VKRXOG EH WUDQVODWHG LQ WHUPV RI WKH µSHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRU¶ LQ (TXDWLRQ SDJH D FKDQJH WR WKH SK\VLFDO V\VWHP IRU H[DPSOH WKURXJK WKH FUHDWLRQ RI VKRUWFXWV
EHWZHHQ SDUWV RI WKH ZDWHU ERGLHV WR LQFUHDVH IOX[HV VKRXOG EH GHVFULEHG LQ WHUPV RI
K\GURORJLFDOSDUDPHWHUVLQIORZVRXWIORZVYROXPHHWF
8QFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV
7KHLVVXH
7KH,($DSSURDFKSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIRUHJRLQJVHFWLRQVXVHVYDULRXVPHWKRGVDQGPRGHOVIRU
GDWD DQDO\VLV H[SODQDWLRQ RI REVHUYHG SKHQRPHQD DQG K\SRWKHVLV WHVWLQJ DV D EDVLV IRU WKH
GHILQLWLRQRIUHVSRQVHVDQGDFWLRQV$NH\LVVXHLQWKLVW\SHRI,($FRQFHUQVWKHDFFXUDF\DQG
UHOLDELOLW\ RI LWV UHVXOWV 7KLV DFFXUDF\ DQG UHOLDELOLW\ GHSHQG LQ WXUQ RQ SUREDELOLWLHV DQG
XQFHUWDLQWLHVLQNQRZOHGJHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHV\VWHPDQGLWVSURFHVVHVDQGUHODWLRQVDQG
WKHWUDQVODWLRQRIVXFKSURFHVVHVDQGUHODWLRQVLQWRPDWKHPDWLFDOHTXDWLRQV
,QKHUHQWWRWKHQDWXUHRI,($SUREOHPVVXFKNQRZOHGJHDQGLQIRUPDWLRQDUHJHQHUDOO\OLPLWHG
DQGXQFHUWDLQIRUYDULRXVUHDVRQV)LUVWO\DVGLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQ,($GHDOVZLWKFRPSOH[
SUREOHPV DQG LQYROYHV WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQW VWUDQGV RI NQRZOHGJH RIWHQ IURP D
PXOWLWXGHRIGLVFLSOLQHV6HFRQGO\,($VLQWHQGWRFDSWXUHDQHQWLUHVHWRIFDXVHHIIHFWUHODWLRQV
LQYROYHGLQDVSHFLILFSUREOHPDQGDUHWKHUHZLWKSURQHWRDFFXPXODWLQJXQFHUWDLQWLHV/DVWO\
WKH W\SH RI HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHPV WDUJHWHG LQ WKLV UHVHDUFK LV RI D SDUWLFXODUO\ GDWD SRRU
QDWXUH
,WLVWKHUHIRUHIRUDJRRGUHDVRQWKDWWKHLVVXHRIXQFHUWDLQW\UHFHLYHVPXFKDWWHQWLRQLQWKH,($
DUHQD$VLVDUJXHGDPRQJRWKHUVE\+RUGLMNHWDO5RWPDQVDQG9DQ$VVHOWDQG
9DQ$VVHOWDQG5RWPDQVWKHUHLVSUHVHQWO\QRJHQHUDOO\DFFHSWHGPHWKRGRORJ\RUVHW
RI PHWKRGRORJLHV IRU WKH DQDO\VLV RI XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ ,($ $Q RYHUYLHZ RI FRQFHSWV DQG
PHWKRGRORJLHVLQYROYHGLQXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVIRU,($LVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV
,WLVKRZHYHUQRWHGWKDWLWLVQRWWKHLQWHQWLRQRIWKLVWKHVLVWRGHYHORSDQHZIUDPHZRUNRU
DSSURDFK IRU XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV QRU LV LW WR SURYLGH D IXOO\ FRPSUHKHQVLYH RYHUYLHZ RI
DSSURDFKHVDSSOLHGE\RWKHUV5DWKHULWLVWKHLQWHQWLRQWRSURYLGHWKHEDVLVIRUVXFKDQDO\VLV
DQG H[SORUH LWV ERXQGDULHV DQG FRQVWUDLQWV ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI UHVHDUFK FDVHV VXFK DV
SUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLV
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
2YHUYLHZRIW\SHVDQGVRXUFHVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHV
:KLFKDUHWKHW\SHVDQGVRXUFHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQ,($"7KLVTXHVWLRQOHDGVWRDPXOWLWXGHRI
DQVZHUV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH VRXUFH RI LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQVXOWHG 0RUJDQ DQG +HQULRQ GLVWLQJXLVKYDULRXVVRXUFHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQULVNDQGSROLF\DQDO\VLV
x VWDWLVWLFDOYDULDWLRQ
x VXEMHFWLYHMXGJHPHQW
x OLQJXLVWLFLPSUHFLVLRQ
x GLVDJUHHPHQWDPRQJH[SHUWVDQG
x DSSUR[LPDWLRQ
x YDULDELOLW\
$OWHUQDWLYH FDWHJRUL]DWLRQV H[LVW KRZHYHU )RU H[DPSOH 9DQ $VVHOW HW DO DUJXH WKDW
µVXEMHFWLYHMXGJHPHQW¶DQGµGLVDJUHHPHQW¶ERWKRULJLQDWHIURPGLIIHULQJLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVGXHWR
WKHIDFWWKDWSHRSOHKDYHGHYHORSHGGLIIHUHQWSHUVSHFWLYHVDQGWKHUHIRUHSURSRVHDFRPELQHG
FDWHJRU\ RI µSHUVSHFWLYHUHODWHG XQFHUWDLQWLHV¶ 9DQ $VVHOW DQG 5RWPDQV IXUWKHUPRUH
JURXSWKHGLIIHUHQWVRXUFHVLQWRWZRFDWHJRULHVRQO\µ9DULDELOLW\¶DQGµ/DFNRI.QRZOHGJH¶,Q
DQ\FDVHLWLVLPSRUWDQWWRQRWHWKDWXQFHUWDLQW\LVQRWRQO\GXHWRWKHDEVHQFHRUVKRUWFRPLQJV
LQ GDWD DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ EXW PD\ DOVR SUHYDLO LQ VLWXDWLRQV ZKHUH VXIILFLHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ LV
DYDLODEOH,QVXFKFDVHVXQFHUWDLQW\PD\EHGXHWRDVSHFWVVXFKDVWKHLQKHUHQWUDQGRPQHVVRI
QDWXUH DQG VRFLHW\ KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU DQG SHUVSHFWLYHV DQG WHFKQRORJLFDO VXUSULVHV 7KH NH\
TXHVWLRQ ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH ODWWHU LV ZKHWKHU WKH GHVFULSWLRQWKHRU\PRGHO UHSUHVHQWV WKH UHDO
ZRUOG
)XUWKHUPRUHRSLQLRQVDQGDSSURDFKHVYDU\FRQVLGHUDEO\DVLWFRQFHUQVWKHGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRI
XQFHUWDLQW\ $ QXPEHU RI FDWHJRUL]DWLRQV SURSRVHG E\ YDULRXV DXWKRUV LV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH
0RVWRIWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQYROYHGLQWKLVWKHVLVFDQEHFDWHJRUL]HGXQGHUWKHWZRJURXSV
SURSRVHGE\+RUGLMNHWDO
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHIRUPRIWKHDSSOLHGDVVHVVPHQWWRROVPRGHOV
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQYDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUV
ZKHUHE\WKHILUVWFDWHJRU\RIXQFHUWDLQW\LQFRUSRUDWHVERWKXQFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWRPRGHOIRUP
PHWKRGRORJLFDO XQFHUWDLQWLHV DQG XQFHUWDLQWLHV UHODWHG WR PRGHO FRPSOHWHQHVV DQG YDOLGLW\
HSLVWHPRORJLFDOXQFHUWDLQWLHVDVGLVWLQJXLVKHGE\5RWPDQVDQGYDQ$VVHOW,WUHIHUV
IXUWKHUPRUHERWKWRWKHVWUXFWXUHRIPRGHOVDVZHOODVWRWKHVSHFLILFIXQFWLRQDOUHODWLRQVZLWKLQ
VXFK PRGHO 6XFK XQFHUWDLQW\ WKHUHIRUH LQ IDFW UHIHUV WR WKH TXHVWLRQ ZKHWKHU WKH PRGHO
SURYLGHVDQDFFXUDWHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIUHDOLW\7KHVHFRQGW\SHRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHVWRWKH
DVVLJQPHQWRIYDOXHVWRSDUDPHWHUVDQGYDULDEOHVRIWKHPRGHO8QFHUWDLQW\DERXWWKHVHYDOXHV
UHIHUVWRWKHIDFWWKDWVXFKYDOXHVDUHQRWH[DFWO\NQRZQRUQRWNQRZQDWDOODVDUHVXOWRIIRU
H[DPSOHPHDVXUHPHQWHUURUVYDULDELOLW\RUUHSRUWLQJHUURUV
*URXSVDDQGEDVSURSRVHGE\+RUGLMNHWDODFWXDOO\VWHPIURPWKHPDWFKLQJFDWHJRULHVE\0RUJDQDQG
+HQULRQ
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH
&DWHJRUL]DWLRQRIW\SHVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVDFFRUGLQJWRYDULRXVDXWKRUV
6RXUFH
&DWHJRULHV
+RUGLMNHWDO
D 8QFHUWDLQW\UHODWHGWRPRGHOVWUXFWXUH
E 8QFHUWDLQW\UHODWHGWRWKHTXDQWLILFDWLRQRIYDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUV
0RUJDQDQG+HQULRQ
D 8QFHUWDLQW\LQWHFKQLFDOVFLHQWLILFHFRQRPLFDQGSROLWLFDOTXDQWLWLHV
E 8QFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWRPRGHOVWUXFWXUH
F 8QFHUWDLQWLHVDULVLQJIURPGLVDJUHHPHQWV
5RWPDQVDQGYDQ
$VVHOW
D 7HFKQLFDOXQFHUWDLQWLHVXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQLQSXWGDWDDQGSDUDPHWHUV
E 0HWKRGRORJLFDOXQFHUWDLQWLHVXQFHUWDLQPRGHOPHWKRGHTXDWLRQVDQGVWUXFWXUH
F (SLVWHPRORJLFDOXQFHUWDLQWLHVVWUXFWXUDOXQFHUWDLQW\DQGYDULDELOLW\
9DQ$VVHOWHWDO
D 6FLHQWLILFXQFHUWDLQWLHV
E 6RFLDODQGHFRQRPLFXQFHUWDLQWLHV
5RZH
D
E
F
G
0HWULFDO8QFHUWDLQW\DQGYDULDELOLW\LQPHDVXUHPHQW
6WUXFWXUH8QFHUWDLQW\GXHWRFRPSOH[LW\LQFOXGLQJPRGHOVDQGWKHLUYDOLGDWLRQ
7HPSRUDO8QFHUWDLQW\LQIXWXUHDQGSDVWVWDWHV
7UDQVODWLRQDO8QFHUWDLQW\LQH[SODLQLQJXQFHUWDLQUHVXOWV
,W VKRXOG KRZHYHU QRW EH QHJOHFWHG WKDW WKHUH LV D FDWHJRU\ RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV WKDW PD\ EH
QHJOHFWHG LQ WKLV PDQQHU 7KLV FRQFHUQV WKH DVSHFW RI µGLVDJUHHPHQW¶ DQG µMXGJHPHQW¶ DV
GHILQHG E\ 0RUJDQ DQG +HQULRQ µSHUVSHFWLYH¶ DV UHIHUUHG WR E\ 9DQ $VVHOW HW DO
RUµWUDQVODWLRQDO¶DVXVHGE\5RZH7KHVHDVSHFWVDOOUHIHUWRPRUHRUOHVVWKH
VDPHDVSHFWZKLFKLVWKHIDFWWKDWSHRSOHPD\KDYHGLIIHUHQWYLHZSRLQWVJRDOVDQGYDOXHVDV
ZHOO DV GLIIHUHQW FDSDELOLWLHV DQG WUDLQLQJ &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI UHVXOWV DQG
LQIRUPDWLRQ GHULYHG IURP D JLYHQ DVVHVVPHQW PD\ GLIIHU GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH SHUVRQ WKDW LV
UHDGLQJDSSO\LQJRUFRPPXQLFDWLQJLW)RUH[DPSOHLVWKHJODVVKDOIIXOORUKDOIHPSW\"7KLV
DVSHFW RI XQFHUWDLQW\ WKHUHIRUH UHIHUV PXFK WR WKH YHUWLFDO VWDNHKROGHU D[LV LQ )LJXUH SDJH6LQFHWKLVWKHVLVFRQFHQWUDWHVRQWKHDQDO\WLFDODVSHFWVRI,($VHHVHFWLRQ
WKLVDVSHFWRIXQFHUWDLQW\LVKRZHYHUQRWIXUWKHUGLVFXVVHGLQWKLVWKHVLV
,WLVQRWHGWKDWWKHWZRW\SHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\SUHVHQWHGDERYHKDYHDVRPHZKDWFRQWUDGLFWLQJ
HIIHFWRQWKHRYHUDOOUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHUHVXOWVRIDJLYHQDVVHVVPHQW+nNDQVRQDVVHVVHG
WKHSULQFLSOHVDQGIDFWRUVWKDWGHWHUPLQHWKHSUHGLFWLYHVXFFHVVRIHFRV\VWHPPRGHOV2QHRI
KLV PDLQ FRQFOXVLRQV ZDV WKDW WKH KLJKHVW WKHRUHWLFDO UHOLDELOLW\ RI VXFK PRGHOV LV UHDFKHG
WKURXJKVWUXFWXULQJWKHPRGHOVVRWKDWWKH\LQFOXGHPRUHIXQGDPHQWDOSURFHVVKHQFHKDYHD
KLJKOHYHORIFRPSOH[LW\JLYHQKRZHYHUWKDWVXFKPRGHOVDUHEDVHGXSRQGULYLQJYDULDEOHV
ZLWKDPLQLPXPRILQKHUHQWXQFHUWDLQWLHV,QRWKHUZRUGVLQFUHDVLQJPRGHOFRPSOH[LW\PD\
OHDGWROHVVXQFHUWDLQW\LQPRGHOIRUPEXWPLJKWLQWURGXFHPRUHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQYDULDEOHVDQG
SDUDPHWHUV,WLVWKHUHIRUHLPSRUWDQWWRPDWFKPRGHOFRPSOH[LW\DQGGDWDDYDLODELOLW\LQRUGHU
WROLPLWWKHOHYHORIXQFHUWDLQW\
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
2YHUYLHZRIPHWKRGVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV
$VGLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQWKHUHLVSUHVHQWO\QRJHQHUDOO\DFFHSWHGPHWKRGRORJ\RUVHWRI
PHWKRGRORJLHV IRU WKH DQDO\VLV RI XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ ,($ +RUGLMN HW DO SUHVHQW DQ
RYHUYLHZRIPHWKRGVIRUDQDO\VLVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQHQYLURQPHQWDOPRGHOVEDVHGRQOLWHUDWXUH
UHYLHZDQGSURSRVHIXUWKHUPRUHDFODVVLILFDWLRQRIVXFKPHWKRGVLQWKUHHJURXSVDVSUHVHQWHG
LQ7DEOH
• 7DEOH
&ODVVLILFDWLRQRIPHWKRGVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLQHQYLURQPHQWDOPRGHOOLQJDIWHU
+RUGLMNHWDO
&ODVV
'HVFULSWLRQ
7RROV
4XDOLW\
FRQWURO
(QVXUH WKDW DSSURSULDWH x,QGHSHQGHQWUHYLHZRIFDOFXODWLRQVDQGGRFXPHQWDWLRQ
PHWKRGV DQG GDWD DUH XVHG x$VVHVVPHQWRIFDOFXODWLRQFRUUHFWQHVVPDWKHPDWLFDOHUURUV
IRUPRGHOFRQVWUXFWLRQWKDW
x$VVHVVPHQW RI UHDVRQDEOHQHVV RI GDWD FRPSDUH WR VWDQGDUG
FDOFXODWLRQ RU GDWD HUURUV
UHIHUHQFHRUDOWHUQDWLYHPHWKRGV
DUH PLQLPL]HG DQG WKDW
GRFXPHQWDWLRQLVDGHTXDWH
,QWHUQDO
4XDOLWDWLYH
DQGRU x4XDOLWDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI NQRZQ DQG VXVSHFWHG VRXUFHV RI
XQFHUWDLQW\ TXDQWLWDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI
XQFHUWDLQW\
DQDO\VLV
VRXUFHV RI XQFHUWDLQW\ DQG x([SHUW HVWLPDWLRQ RI XQFHUWDLQW\ HJ RQ XSSHU DQG ORZHU
WKHLU UHVSHFWLYH LPSDFW RQ
ERXQGVRINH\SDUDPHWHUV
PRGHORXWSXW
x6HQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVFDOFXODWLRQRIHIIHFWVRIFKDQJHVLQPRGHO
LQSXWVRQPRGHORXWSXW
x(UURURUXQFHUWDLQW\SURSDJDWLRQFDOFXODWLRQRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQ
PRGHORXWSXWLQGXFHGE\XQFHUWDLQW\LQLQSXWV
x8QFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV FRPSDULVRQ RI UHODWLYH LPSRUWDQFH RI
LQSXWXQFHUWDLQWLHVWRRXWSXWXQFHUWDLQWLHV
([WHUQDO
$VVHVVPHQW RI DFFXUDF\ x'LUHFWPHDVXUHPHQWRIPRGHOSDUDPHWHUV
XQFHUWDLQW\ WUXWKRIWKHPRGHO
x,QGLUHFW PHDVXUHPHQW RI VXUURJDWH SDUDPHWHUV FRUUHODWHG ZLWK
DQDO\VLV
PRGHOSDUDPHWHUVYDULDEOHVRURXWSXW
x&RPSDULVRQZLWKRWKHUPRGHOV
x&RPSDULVRQZLWKRWKHUPRGHOVWUXFWXUHVZLWKLQWKHVDPHPRGHO
7KHUHDUHRWKHUZD\VRIFDWHJRUL]LQJPHWKRGVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV)RUH[DPSOH5RWPDQV
DQGYDQ$VVHOWUHODWHYDULRXVPHWKRGVGLUHFWO\WRWKHW\SHVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVWKH\DUJXH
WKDW DSSURSULDWH WRROV IRU DVVHVVLQJ XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ GDWD DQG SDUDPHWHUV DUH DPRQJ RWKHUV
VHQVLWLYLW\ DQDO\VLV SUREDELOLW\EDVHG PHWKRGV ZKLFK LQFOXGHV WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH
SURSDJDWLRQRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQLQSXWYDULDEOHVWKURXJKPRGHOVDQGIRUPDOVFHQDULRDQDO\VLV
ZKLFK LPSOLHV WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH HIIHFW RI GLIIHUHQW VHWV RI DVVXPSWLRQV RI SRVVLEOH IXWXUH
VWDWHV RQ PRGHO RXWFRPH IXUWKHUPRUH XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ PRGHO IRUP FDQ EH DVVHVVHG E\
VHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVDQGYDOLGDWLRQ
$VLPLODUFODVVLILFDWLRQDQGGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQVRIPHWKRGVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLVSUHVHQWHGE\9DQ$DUGHQQH
ZKRKRZHYHUGLVWLQJXLVKHVRQO\LQWHUQDODQGH[WHUQDOXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVZKHUHE\DVSHFWVRIµTXDOLW\DVVXUDQFH¶DUH
LQFOXGHGLQWKHFDWHJRU\RIµLQWHUQDOXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV¶
0RGHOYDOLGDWLRQLQYROYHVDVVHVVLQJWRZKDWH[WHQGWKHPRGHOLVDQDGHTXDWHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIUHDOLW\DQGDVD
GHULYDWHWRZKDWH[WHQWLWLVLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKHPSLULFDOREVHUYDWLRQVDQGWKHRUHWLFDOLQVLJKWV,QIDFWWKHUHIRUH
YDOLGDWLRQFDQEHSXWHTXDOWRWKHFDWHJRU\RIµH[WHUQDOXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV¶LQ+RUGLMNHWDO¶VDSSURDFK
&KDSWHU
8QFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLQWKLVWKHVLV
$VGLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQWKHW\SHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\RIWKHUHVHDUFKZRUNSUHVHQWHGLQWKLV
WKHVLV FDQ EH JURXSHG LQWR L XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH IRUP RI DVVHVVPHQW WRROV VWUXFWXUH DQG
LQWHUQDOUHODWLRQVRIPRGHOVDQGLLXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQYDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUV%HFDXVHRIWKH
YHU\OLPLWHGEDVHRIGDWDDQGLQIRUPDWLRQRIWKHSUREOHPDUHDVWDUJHWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVWKHPDLQ
VRXUFHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\DUHSUREDEO\DSSUR[LPDWLRQRIYDOXHVLQWKHDEVHQFHRIDFFXUDWHGDWD
DQGYDULDELOLW\GXHWRWKHLQKHUHQWUDQGRPQHVVRIQDWXUHDQGVRFLHW\ZKLFKFDXVHDKLJKOHYHO
RIXQFHUWDLQW\LQLQSXWGDWD)RUH[DPSOHZKHUHGLUHFWPHDVXUHPHQWVRISROOXWDQWLQSXWVDUH
XQDYDLODEOHDOWHUQDWLYHDSSURDFKHVVXFKDVWKH5DSLG$VVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\VHFWLRQ
DUH DSSOLHG +RZHYHU DV DUJXHG LQ VHFWLRQ LQ VXFK FDVH WKH YDOXHV JLYHQ WR FHUWDLQ
SDUDPHWHUV PRVW LPSRUWDQWO\ WKH µSROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV¶ LQ (TXDWLRQ SDJH EHFRPHV
YHU\GHOLFDWHVLQFHIDFWRUVOLNHH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVDQGZDVWHSHUXQLWSURGXFWRUSHUVRQPD\
YDU\ZLGHO\DFURVVFDVHVVRPHWLPHVZLWKRUGHUVRIPDJQLWXGH
0XFKDWWHQWLRQLVWKHUHIRUHJLYHQWRWKHDVSHFWRIµTXDOLW\FRQWURO¶DVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH
RIWKHLQSXWGDWDXVHGPDLQO\WKURXJKDFRPSDULVRQRIGDWDIURPGLIIHUHQWUHIHUHQFHVRXUFHV
$OVRZKHUHDSSURSULDWHUDQJHVRIYDOXHVµORZ¶µKLJK¶DQGµEHVWJXHVV¶DUHGHILQHGWRHQVXUH
WKDW XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ YDOXHV RI YDULDEOHV DQG SDUDPHWHUV DUH WDNHQ LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ ,Q WKH
/DNH9LFWRULDFDVHIXUWKHUPRUHDPHWKRGIRUSUREDELOLW\DQDO\VLVRIUHVXOWVRIWKHSROOXWLRQ
VRXUFHVDVVHVVPHQWLVDSSOLHG'HWDLOVRIWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\DQGLWVDSSOLFDWLRQDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ
VHFWLRQ
$VLWFRQFHUQVXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHIRUPRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGVDQGPRGHOVDSSOLHGLWKDV
WREHQRWHGWKDWWKHPHWKRGVDQGPRGHOVDSSOLHGLQWKLVUHVHDUFKKDYHEHHQSXUSRVHO\NHSWDWD
ORZOHYHORIFRPSOH[LW\VHHVHFWLRQLQYLHZRIWKHYHU\OLPLWHGGDWDEDVHRQZKLFKVXFK
PHWKRGVDQGPRGHOVFRXOGEHFDOLEUDWHG8QFHUWDLQW\LQPRGHOIRUPWKHUHIRUHPDLQO\UHODWHVWR
WKHVLPSOLILFDWLRQDQGDJJUHJDWLRQRIDFWXDOSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDODQGHFRORJLFDOSURFHVVHVDSDUW
IURP WKH SURSDJDWLRQ RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH YDOXHV RI LQSXW YDULDEOHV DQG SDUDPHWHUV %RWK
LQWHUQDODQGH[WHUQDOPHWKRGVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVDVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHDUHDSSOLHG
$VLWFRQFHUQVµLQWHUQDOXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV¶DTXDOLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVSDUWO\EDVHGXSRQYLHZVRI
RWKHU H[SHUWV LV DSSOLHG WR DVVHVV WKH PDLQ VRXUFHV RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV DQG WKHLU UHODWLYH
LPSRUWDQFHDQGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHUDQJHVRIH[SHFWHGSDUDPHWHUV)XUWKHUPRUHDTXDQWLWDWLYH
DQDO\VLVEDVHGRQPRGHOUXQVZLWKYDU\LQJSDUDPHWHUYDOXHVDQGVFHQDULRVLVH[HFXWHGLQRUGHU
WR L GHWHUPLQH PRGHO VHQVLWLYLW\ WR YDULDWLRQV LQ VXFK SDUDPHWHUV LL DVVHVV WKH UHODWLYH
LPSRUWDQFHRIYDULRXVVRXUFHVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVDQGLLLWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHSURSDJDWLRQRIHUURUV
RULQSXWYDOXHV$IRUPDOµVWDWLVWLFDO¶XQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLVQRWH[HFXWHG
$V LW FRQFHUQV µH[WHUQDO XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV¶ WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW DUH FRPSDUHG WR
YDOXHV REWDLQHG IURP GLUHFW PHDVXUHPHQWV RU LQ FDVHV LQGLUHFWO\ REWDLQHG GDWD ZKHUH
DYDLODEOH )XUWKHUPRUH FURVVFKHFNLQJ DQG PDWFKLQJ RI WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH YDULRXV DVVHVVPHQW
VWHSV LQ WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN VHH )LJXUH SDJH DOORZV IRUDFRPSDULVRQRIUHVXOWV
IURP WKH YDULRXV VWHSV )RU H[DPSOH WKH H[HFXWLRQ RI D 5$ VWHS , UHVXOWV LQ YDOXHV IRU
SROOXWDQW ORDGV 7KH QXWULHQW EDODQFH PRGHO VWHS ,, FDQ VXEVHTXHQWO\ EH XVHG WR FKHFN
ZKHWKHUWKHVHH[SHFWHGORDGVFRUUHVSRQGWRWKHFKDQJHVREVHUYHGLQWKHV\VWHPLHLQWHUPVRI
FKDQJHV LQ QXWULHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DQG VHGLPHQWDWLRQ 7KH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN WKXV VKRZV D
EHQHILWLQWKDWLWDOORZVIRUDFRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQUHVXOWVRIGLIIHUHQWPRGHOVWUXFWXUHVZLWKLQ
WKHRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUN
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
5HFDSLWXODWLRQDQGILQDOREVHUYDWLRQV
*HQHUDO
7KHXOWLPDWHJRDORI,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW,:3$LVWRGHILQHDVVHVVDQG
FRPSDUH SROLFLHV DQG VWUDWHJLHV IRU LPSURYHPHQW RI WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI D ZDWHU ERG\ ,Q DQ
XSFRPLQJ WHUPLQRORJ\ DSSOLHG DPRQJ RWKHUV E\ $OOHQE\ DQG *UDHGHO DQG $OOHQE\
WKLV DFWLRQ LV UHIHUUHG WR DV (DUWK 6\VWHPV (QJLQHHULQJ DQG 0DQDJHPHQW (6(0
:LWKLQWKLVFRQWH[WWKHFRQFHSWVDQGPHWKRGRORJLHVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIRUHJRLQJVHFWLRQSURYLGH
DIUDPHZRUNRURQHFRXOGFDOOLWµGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRRO¶IRUVXFK(6(0
7KLV VHFWLRQ SURYLGHV ILUVW RI DOO D UHFDSLWXODWLRQ RI WKH WKHRUHWLFDO DQG PHWKRGRORJLFDO
IUDPHZRUNIRU,:3$SUHVHQWHGLQWKLVFKDSWHU6HFRQGO\LWSUHVHQWVVHYHUDOREVHUYDWLRQVZLWK
UHJDUGWRWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHSUHVHQWHG,:3$DSSURDFKDVDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRRO
5HFDSLWXODWLRQRIWKHHVWDEOLVKHG,:3$IUDPHZRUN
7KH RYHUDOO IUDPHZRUN IRU ,:3$ DV SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV LV SURYLGHG E\ WKH FRQFHSW RI
,QWHJUDWHG (QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW ,($ WKH WKUHH IHDWXUHV RI ZKLFK DUH L D V\VWHPV
DSSURDFK LL D SUREOHP VROYLQJ GHFLVLRQ VXSSRUW RULHQWHG DVVHVVPHQW SURFHVV DQG LLL
LQWHJUDWLRQRIGLVFLSOLQHV
:LWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRI,($WKHWKUHHVWDJHVRIDVVHVVPHQW5HI)LJXUHSDJHWKDWFDQEH
GLVWLQJXLVKHGDUH
$SUREOHPIRUPXODWLRQVWDJHZKLFKLQYROYHVWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIWKHREMHFWLYHVRI
WKHDVVHVVPHQWLQFOXGLQJLWVERXQGDULHVDQGFRQVWUDLQWV
$ UHVHDUFK DQG DVVHVVPHQW VWDJH ZKLFK LQYROYHV EXLOGLQJ DQG XVLQJ PRGHOV
GHYHORSLQJDOWHUQDWLYHUHVSRQVHVDQGIRUHFDVWLQJIXWXUHFRQGLWLRQV
$Q HYDOXDWLRQ DQG SUHVHQWDWLRQ VWDJH ZKLFK LQYROYHV D FRPSDULVRQ RI SRVVLEOH
UHVSRQVHVSROLFLHVDYDOLGDWLRQRIGDWDDQGUHVXOWVDQGILQDOO\WKHUHSRUWLQJRIVXFK
UHVXOWV
7KHFDVHVWXGLHVSUHVHQWHGLQFKDSWHUVDQGIROORZWKHDERYHOLVWHGWKUHHDVVHVVPHQWVWHSVLQ
WKHLUUHSRUWLQJVWUXFWXUH(DFKRIWKHFDVHVLVLQWURGXFHGE\DGHILQLWLRQRIWKHSUREOHP6WDJH
IROORZHGE\WKHDFWXDOUHVHDUFKDQGDVVHVVPHQW6WDJHZKLFKLVSUHVHQWHGE\PHDQVRI
VHYHUDODOUHDG\SXEOLVKHGRUVXEPLWWHGUHVHDUFKSXEOLFDWLRQVDQGIROORZHGE\DILQDODQDO\VLV
DQGYDOLGDWLRQRIUHVXOWV6WDJH
7KHWKHRUHWLFDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVFKDSWHUFRQVLVWVIXUWKHUPRUH
RI D QXPEHU RI FRQFHSWV DQG PHWKRGV ZKLFK WRJHWKHU IRUP WKH WRROV WKDW DUH DSSOLHG LQ WKH
DVVHVVPHQWSURFHVV
x 7KH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVWKHRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNIRUDVVHVVPHQWRIFDXVHVDQGHIIHFWV
RIDQGUHVSRQVHVWRWKHZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPVHFWLRQ
x $ VHW RI PHWKRGRORJLHV IRU DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH YDULRXV
HOHPHQWVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH
2YHUYLHZRIPHWKRGRORJLHVDSSOLHGIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKH
YDULRXVHOHPHQWVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
'36,56WHS
0HWKRG
6HFWLRQRI
WKLVWKHVLV
,
'ULYLQJIRUFHV3UHVVXUHV
5DSLG$VVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\
,,
3UHVVXUHV±6WDWH
6XEVWDQFHEDODQFHPRGHOOLQJ
,,,
6WDWH±,PSDFW
&RQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUNIRUZDWHUV\VWHPIXQFWLRQ
DQGYDOXHDQDO\VLV
,9
'HILQLWLRQRI5HVSRQVH
PHDVXUHV
&RQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUNIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQG
GHILQLWLRQRISRVVLEOHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV
x 0HWKRGVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV,QYLHZRIWKHLQKHUHQWXQFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWR
ODUJHVFDOH ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW LQ JHQHUDO LQ SDUWLFXODU XQGHU GDWD SRRU
VLWXDWLRQVDVHOHFWLRQRIPHWKRGVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLVSURSRVHGDQGGLVFXVVHG
VHFWLRQ
5HPDUNVZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH,:3$IUDPHZRUNDVDGHFLVLRQ
VXSSRUWWRRO
,QDSSO\LQJWKHDERYHIUDPHZRUNIRU,:3$LWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHUHDUHPDQ\GLIIHUHQW
DVSHFWVWKDWVKRXOGXOWLPDWHO\EHFRQVLGHUHGLQGHFLVLRQPDNLQJŠRUµSROLF\DQDO\VLV¶ŠIRU
ZDWHUSROOXWLRQPDQDJHPHQW7KLVVHFWLRQGLVFXVVHVDQXPEHURIVXFKFRQVLGHUDWLRQVLWKH
LVVXHRIPXOWLSOLFLW\RISROLF\DQDO\VLVLLWKHLVVXHRISUREOHPGHILQLWLRQIRUSROLF\DQDO\VLV
DQGLLLLVVXHVUHODWHGWRWKHGHILQLWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHV
0XOWLSOLFLW\RISROLF\DQDO\VLV
,WVKRXOGEHUHDOLVHGWKDWWKHGHILQLWLRQDVVHVVPHQWDQGFRPSDULVRQRISROLFLHVDQGVWUDWHJLHV
XOWLPDWHO\QRWRQO\LQYROYHVDWHFKQLFDODQDO\VLVEXWDOVRFRQWHPSODWLRQRIWKHVRFLDOFXOWXUDO
DQGSROLWLFDOLVVXHVLQYROYHG7KHDQDO\VLVRISROLFLHVDQGVWUDWHJLHVWKHUHIRUHUHODWHVWRERWKWKH
YHUWLFDOVWDNHKROGHUDQGKRUL]RQWDOWHFKQLFDODQDO\VLVVSHFWUDRIDVVHVVPHQWDVSUHVHQWHGLQ
)LJXUHSDJH)XUWKHUPRUHLWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWSROLF\DQDO\VLVLQSUDFWLFHLQYROYHV
FRQVLGHUDWLRQRIDZLGHVSHFWUXPRISROLF\ILHOGVZKLFKPD\OHDGWRFRQIOLFWLQJREMHFWLYHV)RU
H[DPSOHDVVKRZQE\7XUQHUHWDODJULFXOWXUDOGHYHORSPHQWREMHFWLYHVPD\FRQIOLFW
ZLWKZDWHUTXDOLW\REMHFWLYHVLQWKDWLQFUHDVHGDJULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHVJHQHUDOO\HQKDQFHQXWULHQW
UXQRIIDQGWKHUHZLWKHXWURSKLFDWLRQRIZDWHUERGLHV0RUHRYHUDVFRQFOXGHGE\+DLJK
DOWKRXJK UDWLRQDO VFLHQWLVWV PD\ WKLQN WKDW WKH\ VSHDN D XQLYHUVDO ODQJXDJH SUDFWLWLRQHUV RI
DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ DQG ODZ LQ GLIIHUHQW FRXQWULHV GR QRW VSHDN WKH VDPH ODQJXDJH 7KH ZD\ LQ
ZKLFKSROLF\DGYLFHLVLQWHUSUHWHGPD\FRQVHTXHQWO\GLIIHUIURPFDVHWRFDVH
$VGLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQWKHIRFXVRIWKLVWKHVLVLVRQWKHWHFKQLFDODQDO\VLVDVSHFWVRIWKH
DVVHVVPHQW)URPWKHDERYHGLVFXVVLRQKRZHYHULWLVFOHDUWKDWHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\PDNLQJ
H[WHQGV EH\RQG WKH VFLHQWLILF LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI DQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHP DQG WKH UDWLRQDO
VHOHFWLRQRIWKHWHFKQLFDOO\EHVWHQYLURQPHQWDOVROXWLRQKRZHYHUVRSKLVWLFDWHGWKDWSDUWRIWKH
SURFHVVPD\EH7KHLPSRUWDQFHRIDVSHFWVVXFKDVVWDNHKROGHUSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQ,($LQFOXGLQJ
LQ WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI SROLF\ REMHFWLYHV DOWHUQDWLYHV DQG VFHQDULRV DQG LQ WKH HYDOXDWLRQ DQG
HYHQWXDOVHOHFWLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHVWUDWHJLHVDVUHFRJQL]HGE\RWKHUVVXFKDV*RXJKHWDO
5RWPDQV7RODQG9HOOLQJD7XUQHUHWDOVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHVWUHVVHG
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
3UREOHPGHILQLWLRQIRUSROLF\DQDO\VLV
$FFRUGLQJWR6FKRRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLFLHVDUHGLUHFWHGDWSUHYHQWLQJHQYLURQPHQWDO
SUREOHPV DQG ILQGLQJ VROXWLRQV IRU WKHVH SUREOHPV ,Q RUGHU WR GHILQH DSSURSULDWH SROLF\
REMHFWLYHV ZH WKHUHIRUH ILUVW KDYH WR GHILQH ZKDW LV XQGHUVWRRG DV EHLQJ DQ µHQYLURQPHQWDO
SUREOHP¶$FFRUGLQJWR8GRGH+DHVZHJHQHUDOO\VSHDNRIDQHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHP
LIODUJHUJURXSVRIDVRFLHW\JURXSVRILQGLYLGXDOVRUJDQL]DWLRQVRULQVWLWXWLRQVFRQVLGHUWKH
FRQVHTXHQFHVRIFHUWDLQDFWLYLWLHVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDVVXIILFLHQWO\QHJDWLYHWREULQJLWXSIRU
GLVFXVVLRQ +HQFH HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHPV DUH VRFLHWDO QRW LQGLYLGXDO SUREOHPV +H
IXUWKHUPRUH VWDWHV WKDW HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHPV DUH JHQHUDOO\ LQGLFDWHG DV VXFK LI WKHVH
SUREOHPVDUHFDXVHGE\KXPDQDFWLYLWLHVDQGLQWHUIHUHQFH,WFRQFHUQVWKHUHZLWKWKHKDUPIXO
VLGHHIIHFWVRIVRFLHWDODFWLYLWLHV
,W VKRXOG KRZHYHU EH UHFRJQL]HG WKDW WKH ODWWHU LV LQ DFWXDO IDFW QRW DOZD\V WKH FDVH VLQFH
QDWXUDOSURFHVVHVVXFKDVVRLOHURVLRQVLOWDWLRQFKDQJHVLQULYHUHFRORJ\RUPRUSKRORJ\FDQ
FDXVH RU FRQWULEXWH WR HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHPV :LWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH JOREDO ZDUPLQJ
SUREOHPIRUH[DPSOHDQLVVXHRIRQJRLQJGHEDWHUHODWHVWRWKHUHODWLYHLPSRUWDQFHRIKXPDQ
YHUVXVQDWXUDOIDFWRUVYDULDWLRQVWUHQGVDQGF\FOHV7KHDSSURDFKWDNHQVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHWR
GHILQH SROLF\ REMHFWLYHV IURP WKH SRLQW RI YLHZ RI ILQGLQJ D VROXWLRQ WR µSHUFHLYHG¶
HQYLURQPHQWDO FKDQJHV DQG µHIIHFWV¶ UDWKHU WKDQ DXWRPDWLFDOO\ UHODWLQJ VXFK FKDQJHV DQG
HIIHFWVWRKXPDQIDFWRUVDVWKHµFDXVH¶RIVXFKLPSDFWV
7KH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ VXFK µFDXVHV¶ DQG µHIIHFWV¶ EDVHG DSSURDFK FDQ EH GHPRQVWUDWHG E\
GUDZLQJDYHUWLFDOOLQHULJKWWKURXJKWKHPLGGOHRIWKH'36,5HIIHFWFKDLQDVLVSUHVHQWHGLQ
)LJXUH2QWKHOHIWVLGHZHILQGWKHFDXVHVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVWKHGULYLQJIRUFHV
DQGWKHLUUHODWHGSUHVVXUH2QWKHULJKWVLGHZHILQGWKHDFWXDOHIIHFWVRQWKHVWDWHRIWKHZDWHU
V\VWHPDQGWKHLUUHODWHGLPSDFWV7KHFDXVHEDVHGDSSURDFKZRXOGGHILQHDSROLF\REMHFWLYHDV
IRUH[DPSOH³OLPLWLQJSROOXWDQWORDGVIURPKXPDQVRXUFHVLQGXVWU\KRXVHKROGVDJULFXOWXUH
LQWRDZDWHUERG\´LQRWKHUZRUGVOLPLWLQJWKHSUHVVXUHRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW7KHHIIHFWEDVHG
DSSURDFKZRXOGGHILQHDVLPLODUREMHFWLYHDV³LPSURYLQJFRQGLWLRQVRIDZDWHUERG\LQWHUPV
RIILVKUHVRXUFHVZDWHUTXDOLW\HWF´LQRWKHUZRUGVLPSURYLQJWKHVWDWHRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHP
VRWKDWDGYHUVHLPSDFWVDUHUHGXFHG
&DXVHV
'ULYLQJ)RUFHV
D
(IIHFWV
(QYLURQPHQWDO
SUHVVXUH
E
6WDWHRIWKH
HQYLURQPHQW
F
,PSDFW
G
5HVSRQVHDFWLRQV
• )LJXUH &DXVHVDQGHIIHFWVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPV
&KDSWHU
7R EH DEOH WR LGHQWLI\ VROXWLRQV WR VXFK HIIHFWEDVHG SUREOHP UHTXLUHV DQ LQWHJUDWHG DQG
V\VWHPVEDVHG DSSURDFK 7KH VROXWLRQ RI D SUREOHP IRUPXODWHG DV ³OLPLWLQJ SROOXWDQW ORDGV
IURPKXPDQVRXUFHV´LVVROYHGE\LGHQWLI\LQJDQGTXDQWLI\LQJSROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDQGGHILQLQJ
PHDVXUHV WR OLPLW SROOXWLRQ ORDGV IURP WKHVH VRXUFHV IRU H[DPSOH E\ PHDQV RI ZDVWHZDWHU
WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV +RZHYHU WKH VROXWLRQ WR WKH SUREOHP ³LPSURYH FRQGLWLRQV RI D ZDWHU
ERG\´ UHTXLUHV DQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH V\VWHP LWVHOI ,W UHTXLUHV LQVLJKW LQWR WKH LQWHUDFWLRQV
EHWZHHQµGULYLQJIRUFHV¶µSUHVVXUHV¶µVWDWH¶DQGWKHDFWXDOHQYLURQPHQWDOµLPSDFWV¶WRGHILQH
ZKLFKPHDVXUHVDQGDWZKDWOHYHODUHPRVWHIIHFWLYH7KH,:3$IUDPHZRUNSUHVHQWHGLQWKLV
WKHVLVSURYLGHVDQDSSURSULDWHWRROIRUVXFKDQDO\VLV
(YDOXDWLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHSROLFLHVDQGVWUDWHJLHV
$XVHIXOWRROIRUWKHDQDO\VLVRIDOWHUQDWLYHVWUDWHJLHVLVVFHQDULRDQDO\VLV$VGHILQHGE\.DKQ
DQG :LHQGHU VFHQDULRV DUH K\SRWKHWLFDO VHTXHQFHV RI HYHQWV FRQVWUXFWHG IRU WKH
SXUSRVH RI IRFXVLQJ DWWHQWLRQ RQ FDXVDO SURFHVVHV DQG GHFLVLRQ SRLQWV $FFRUGLQJ WR ,&,6
VFHQDULRVFDQEHXVHIXOWRROVWR
x DUWLFXODWH NH\ FRQVLGHUDWLRQV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV VFHQDULRV FDQ KHOS WR LPDJLQH D
UDQJHRISRVVLEOHIXWXUHVLIZHIROORZDNH\VHWRIDVVXPSWLRQVDQGFRQVLGHUDWLRQV
x EOHQGTXDQWLWDWLYHDQGTXDOLWDWLYHNQRZOHGJHVFHQDULRVDUHSRZHUIXOIUDPHZRUNV
IRU XVLQJ ERWK GDWD DQG PRGHOSURGXFHG RXWSXW LQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZLWK TXDOLWDWLYH
NQRZOHGJHHOHPHQWV
x LGHQWLI\FRQVWUDLQWVDQGGLOHPPDVH[SORULQJWKHIXWXUHRIWHQ\LHOGVLQGLFDWLRQVIRU
FRQVWUDLQWVLQIXWXUHGHYHORSPHQWVDQGGLOHPPDVIRUVWUDWHJLFFKRLFHVWREHPDGH
x H[SDQGWKLQNLQJEH\RQGWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOSDUDGLJPH[SORULQJIXWXUHSRVVLELOLWLHV
WKDW JR EH\RQG RXU FRQYHQWLRQDO WKLQNLQJ PD\ UHVXOW LQ VXUSULVLQJ DQG LQQRYDWLYH
LQVLJKWV
6FHQDULRVFDQEHFODVVLILHGDORQJWKHOLQHVRILWKHW\SHRIWRRORUPHWKRGXVHGIRUGHVLJQLQJ
WKHVFHQDULRDQGLLWKHIXQFWLRQDOLW\DQGIRFXVRIWKHVFHQDULRH[HUFLVH5HJDUGLQJWKHILUVW
JURXS ZH FDQ GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ TXDQWLWDWLYH VFHQDULRV EDVHG RQ WKH XVH RI PRGHOV
TXDOLWDWLYHVFHQDULRVEDVHGRQQDUUDWLYHVDQGK\EULGVFHQDULRVEDVHGRQSDUWLFLSDWRU\PHWKRGV
$ VXEFODVVLILFDWLRQ IRU WKH VHFRQG JURXS LV JLYHQ E\ 'XFRW DQG /XEEHQ DQG (($
D H[SORUDWRU\ YHUVXV DQWLFLSDWRU\ VFHQDULRV ([SORUDWRU\ VFHQDULRV DUH IRUZDUG
GLUHFWHGLHWKH\H[SORUHWKHIXWXUHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIDVHTXHQFHRIDVVXPSWLRQV$QWLFLSDWRU\
VFHQDULRV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG DUH EDFNZDUG GLUHFWHG LH WKH\ VWDUW IURPVRPHDVVXPHGILQDO
VWDWH DQG H[SORUH WKH SUHFRQGLWLRQV WKDW FRXOG OHDG WR WKLV VWDWH E GHVFULSWLYH YHUVXV
QRUPDWLYH VFHQDULRV 'HVFULSWLYH VFHQDULRV GR QRW WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW GHVLUDEOH JRDOV ZKLOH
QRUPDWLYH VFHQDULRV GR F WUHQG YHUVXV SHULSKHUDO VFHQDULRV $ WUHQG VFHQDULR H[WUDSRODWHV
SDVW DQG FXUUHQW WUHQGV ZKLOH SHULSKHUDO VFHQDULRV LQFOXGH WUHQGEUHDNLQJ DQGRU VXUSULVLQJ
GHYHORSPHQWV
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
)XUWKHUPRUH LW VKRXOG EH QRWHG WKDW XOWLPDWHO\ WKH FRPSDULVRQ RI DOWHUQDWLYH VWUDWHJLHV
UHTXLUHV WKHLU DVVHVVPHQW YLVjYLV WKH GHILQHG REMHFWLYHV 6LQFH DV GLVFXVVHG EHIRUH LQ WKLV
VHFWLRQ RIWHQ PXOWLSOH REMHFWLYHV DUH LQYROYHG VXFK DVVHVVPHQW UHTXLUHV MXGJPHQW EDVHG RQ
GLIIHUHQW RIWHQ QRW IXOO\ FRPSDUDEOH FULWHULD )RU H[DPSOH RQH REMHFWLYH PLJKW EH WR
PLQLPL]HHQYLURQPHQWDOGHJUDGDWLRQZKLOHDVHFRQGREMHFWLYHLVWRPLQLPL]HFRVW,QPDQ\
FDVHVWKHUHIRUHWKHXVHRIPXOWLFULWHULDDQDO\VLVRULQWULFDWH'HFLVLRQ6XSSRUW6\VWHPV'&6
LV SURPRWHG 7KH XOWLPDWH FRPSDULVRQ RI DOWHUQDWLYHV LQYROYHV DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH FRVW
EHQHILWUHODWLRQDQGWKHFRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKHGHILQHGDFWLRQV(DUO\UHFRJQLWLRQWRWKHYDOXH
RI FRVWEHQHILW DQDO\VLV LQ V\VWHPV DQDO\VLV LV IRU H[DPSOH JLYHQ E\ 0F.HDQ 0RUH
UHFHQWH[DPSOHVLQFOXGH%LQJKDPHWDO%RFNVWDHOHWDO&RQVWDQ]DDQG)DUEHU
)DUEHUHWDO/DQJHZHJ7XUQHUDQG7XUQHUHWDO
7KHGHYHORSPHQWRIPHWKRGVIRUDQGWKHH[HFXWLRQRIVXFKGHWDLOHGSROLF\DQDO\VLVIDOO
KRZHYHURXWVLGHRIWKHVFRSHRIWKLVWKHVLV
5HIHUHQFHV
$EGXOODK$57DKLU10/RRQJ76+RTXH706XODLPDQ$+7KH*()81'3,020DODFFD
6WUDLWV'HPRQVWUDWLRQ3URMHFW6RXUFHVRI3ROOXWLRQ0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ
$($7HFKQRORJ\&RPSXWHUEDVHG0RGHOVLQ,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW$5HSRUW3UHSDUHG
IRUWKH(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQW$JHQF\$($7:DUULQJWRQ8.
$MDR($DQG$QXULJZR6$VVHVVPHQWRI/DQGEDVHG6RXUFHVRI3ROOXWLRQLQ1LJHULD5HSRUWSUHSDUHG
IRUWKH81,'281'3*()*2*/0(3URMHFW/DJRV1LJHULD
$OILHUL $ $ )UDPHZRUN WR 0HDVXUH WKH ,QWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH (FRQRP\ DQG WKH (QYLURQPHQW ,Q
2UJDQLVDWLRQ IRU (FRQRPLF &RRSHUDWLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 2(&' )UDPHZRUNV WR 0HDVXUH 6XVWDLQDEOH
'HYHORSPHQW2(&'3DULV
$OOHQE\ %5 (DUWK 6\VWHPV (QJLQHHULQJ DQG 0DQDJHPHQW ,Q $\UHV 58 $\UHV /: (GV $
+DQGERRNRI,QGXVWULDO(FRORJ\(GZDUG(OJDU&KHOWHQKDP8.
$QJZH&$*DEFKH&(4XDQWLWDWLYH$VVHVVPHQWRIODQGEDVHG6RXUFHVRI3ROOXWLRQWRWKH&RDVWDO
DQG 0DULQH (QYLURQPHQW RI WKH 5HSXEOLF RI &DPHURRQ 5HSRUW SUHSDUHG IRU )$2,2&:+2,$($81(3
:$&$),,3URMHFW$FFUD*KDQD
$QWXQHV36DQWRV5,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQWRIWKH2FHDQV(FRORJLFDO(FRQRPLFV
$UKRQGLWVLV * 7VLUWVLV * $QJHOLGLV 02 .DU\GLV 0 4XDQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH (IIHFWV RI 1RQSRLQW
1XWULHQW6RXUFHVWR&RDVWDO0DULQH(XWURSKLFDWLRQ$SSOLFDWLRQVWRD6HPL(QFORVHG*XOILQWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQ
6HD(FRORJLFDO0RGHOOLQJ
%HDXODF 01 5HFNRZ .+ $Q ([DPLQDWLRQ RI /DQG 8VH 1XWULHQW ([SRUW 5HODWLRQVKLSV :DWHU
5HVRXUFHV%XOOHWLQ
%HHWRQ $0 /DUJH )UHVKZDWHU ODNHV 3UHVHQW 6WDWH 7UHQGVDQG)XWXUH(QYLURQPHQWDO&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%HKUHQGW+,QYHQWRULHVRI3RLQWDQG'LIIXVH6RXUFHVDQG(VWLPDWHG1XWULHQW/RDGV±$&RPSDULVRQIRU
'LIIHUHQW5LYHUEDVLQVLQ&HQWUDO(XURSH:DWHU6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\
%HQGRULFFKLR*5LQDOGR$)LHOG6FDOH6LPXODWLRQRI1XWULHQW/RVVHV,Q*LRUJLQL$DQG=LQJDOHV)
(GV $JULFXOWXUDO 1RQSRLQW 6RXUFH 3ROOXWLRQ 0RGHO 6HOHFWLRQ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6RFLHW\ IRU
(FRORJLFDO0RGHOLQJ,6(0(OVHYLHU&RSHQKDJHQ'HQPDUN
)RUH[DPSOHVDQGGLVFXVVLRQVRIVXFK'66¶VVHH%RJDUGLHWDO*RXJKHWDO2VWURPDQG*URV
*URVDQG2VWURP2UORYVNLHWDO5RWPDQV7RWKDQG+L]VQ\LNDQG7XUQHUHWDO
&KDSWHU
%HQQHW5-&KRUOH\5-(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV3KLORVRSK\$QDO\VLVDQG&RQWURO0HWKXHQ&ROWG
/RQGRQ*UHDW%ULWWDLQ
%LQH\&$$VVHVVPHQWRI:DWHU$LUDQG/DQG3ROOXWLRQ6RXUFHVLQ$FFUD7HPD0HWURSROLWDQ$UHD
*KDQD:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQL]DWLRQ5HJLRQDO2IILFHIRU$IULFD
%LQJKDP*%LVKRS5%URG\0%URPOH\'&ODUN(&RRSHU:&RQVWDQ]D5+DOH7+D\GHQ*
.HOOHUW 6 1RUJDDUG 5 1RUWRQ % 3D\QH - 5XVVHOO & 6XWHU * ,VVXHV LQ (FRV\VWHP 9DOXDWLRQ
,PSURYLQJ,QIRUPDWLRQIRU'HFLVLRQPDNLQJ(FRORJLFDO(FRQRPLFV
%RFNVWDHO1&RQVWDQ]D56WUDQG,%R\WRQ:%HOO.:DLQJHU/(FRORJLFDO(FRQRPLFVDQG
YDOXDWLRQRI(FRV\VWHPV(FRORJLFDO(FRQRPLFV
%RJDUGL,'DYLG/'XFNVWHLQ/7UDGHRII%HWZHHQ&RVWDQG(IIHFWLYHQHVVRI&RQWURORI1XWULHQW
/RDGLQJLQWRD:DWHU%RG\,,$6$5HVHDUFK5HSRUW55/D[HQEXUJ$XVWULD
%RRWVPD +$ %RRWVPD 0- DQG +HFN\ 5( 7KH &KHPLFDO &RPSRVLWLRQ RI 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ DQG LWV
6LJQLILFDQFHWRWKH1XWULHQW%XGJHWRI/DNH0DODZL3HUVRQDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQ
%XGHOPDQ $ 1XWULHQW )ORZ $QDO\VLV DV D 7RRO LQ 5HVHDUFK 3ULRULW\ 6HWWLQJ LQ )DUPLQJ 6\VWHPV
5HVHDUFKQG'UDIW5HSRUW0ZDQ]D7DQ]DQLD
%XOWRQ ) (YDSRUDWLRQ IURP D 7URSLFDO /DNH &RPSDULVRQ RI 7KHRU\ ZLWK 'LUHFW 0HDVXUHPHQWV &RPPHQW-RXUQDORI+\GURORJ\
&DUDFR 1) &ROH -- +XPDQ ,PSDFW RQ 1LWUDWH ([SRUW $Q $QDO\VLV 8VLQJ 0DMRU :RUOG 5LYHUV
$PELR
&RJQHWWL * (QYLURQPHQWDO &RQWURO LQ WKH 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ $ 5HQHZHG &RPPLWPHQW WR ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&RRSHUDWLRQ0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ
&RKHQ6-6FLHQWLVWVWDNHKROGHU&ROODERUDWLRQLQ,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWR&OLPDWH&KDQJH/HVVRQVIURP
D&DVH6WXG\RI1RUWKZHVW&DQDGD(QYLURQPHQWDO0RGHOOLQJDQG$VVHVVPHQW
&RQVWDQ]D5G¶$UJH5'H*URRW56)DUEHU6*UDVVR0+DQQRQ%/LPEXUJ.1DHHP62¶1HLOO
593DUXHOR-5DVNLQ5*6XWWRQ39DQGHQ%HOW07KHYDOXHRIWKH:RUOG¶V(FRV\VWHP6HUYLFHV
DQGQDWXUDO&DSLWDO1DWXUH
&RQVWDQ]D 5 )DUEHU 6 ,QWURGXFWLRQ WR WKH 6SHFLDO ,VVXH RQ WKH '\QDPLFV DQG 9DOXH RI (FRV\VWHP
6HUYLFHV,QWHJUDWLQJ(FRQRPLFDQG(FRORJLFDO3HUVSHFWLYHV(FRORJLFDO(FRQRPLFV
'H*URRW56)XQFWLRQVRI1DWXUH(YDOXDWLRQRI1DWXUHLQ(QYLURQPHQWDO3ODQQLQJ0DQDJHPHQWDQG
'HFLVLRQ0DNLQJ:ROWHUV1RRUGKRII*URQLQJHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
'H *URRW 56 :LOVRQ 0$ %RXPDQV 50- $ 7\SRORJ\ IRU WKH &ODVVLILFDWLRQ 'HVFULSWLRQ DQG
9DOXDWLRQRI(FRV\VWHP)XQFWLRQV*RRGVDQG6HUYLFHV(FRORJLFDO(FRQRPLFV
'H6R\D,*OHGLWVFK137R&XOWLYDWH3HDFH$JULFXOWXUHLQD:RUOGRI&RQIOLFW35,25HSRUW
,QWHUQDWLRQDO3HDFH5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH2VOR
'H:LW00RGHOOLQJ1XWULHQW)OX[HVIURP6RXUFHWR5LYHU/RDGD0DFURVFRSLF$QDO\VLV$SSOLHGWRWKH
5KLQHDQG(OEH%DVLQV+\GURELRORJLD
'H:LW0-03HEHVPD(-1XWULHQW)OX[HVDWWKH5LYHU%DVLQ6FDOH,,7KH%DODQFHEHWZHHQ'DWD
$YDLODELOLW\DQG0RGHO&RPSOH[LW\+\GURORJLFDO3URFHVVHV
'RZODWDEDGL+,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW0RGHOVRI&OLPDWH&KDQJH$Q,QFRPSOHWH2YHUYLHZ(QHUJ\
3ROLF\
'RZQV3:*UHJRU\.7%URRNHV$+RZ,QWHJUDWHGLV5LYHU%DVLQ0DQDJHPHQW"(QYLURQPHQWDO
0DQDJHPHQW
'XFRW&/XEEHQ+-$7\SRORJ\IRU6FHQDULRV)XWXUHV
(FRQRPRSRXORV$3$VVHVVPHQWRI6RXUFHVRI$LU:DWHUDQG/DQG3ROOXWLRQ3DUWRQH5DSLG,QYHQWRU\
7HFKQLTXHVLQ(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQ:+2*HQHYD
(GZDUGV 31 *OREDO &RPSUHKHQVLYH 0RGHOV LQ 3ROLWLFV DQG 3ROLF\PDNLQJ &OLPDWLF &KDQJH (($±(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDO$JHQF\7RZDUGVD7UDQVSRUWDQG(QYLURQPHQW5HSRUWLQJ0HFKDQLVP
7(50IRUWKH(83DUW7(50&RQFHSWDQG3URFHVV(($&RSHQKDJHQ
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
(($±(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDO$JHQF\6FHQDULRVDV7RROVRI,QWHUQDWLRQDO(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW
(QYLURQPHQWDO,VVXH5HSRUW1R(($&RSHQKDJHQ
(),($±(XURSHDQ)RUXPRQ,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW:HEVLWHZZZHILHDRUJ
(OOLRWK 0 7KH 5ROH RI WKH '36,5 $SSURDFK DQG &RQFHSWXDO 0RGHOV LQ 0DULQH (QYLURQPHQWDO
PDQDJHPHQW$Q([DPSOHIRU2IIVKRUH:LQG3RZHU0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQLLLYLL
(ULNVVRQ(&RPSRVLWLRQRI$WPRVSKHULF3UHFLSLWDWLRQ,7HOOXV
)DUEHU 6& &RQVWDQ]D 5 :LOVRQ 0$ (FRQRPLF DQG (FRORJLFDO &RQFHSWV IRU YDOXLQJ (FRV\VWHP
6HUYLFHV(FRORJLFDO(FRQRPLFV
)LQGHLVHQ:4XDGH(67KH0HWKRGRORJ\RI6\VWHPV$QDO\VLV$Q,QWURGXFWLRQDQG2YHUYLHZ,Q
0LVHU+-4XDGH(6(GV+DQGERRNRI6\VWHPV$QDO\VLV2YHUYLHZRI8VHV3URFHGXUHV$SSOLFDWLRQVDQG
3UDFWLFH-RKQ:LOH\6RQV&KLFKHVWHU
)RUEHV6$7KH/DNHDVD0LFURFRVP%XOOHWLQ3HRULD6FLHQFH$VVRFLDWLRQ
)UHHPDQ $0 7KH 0HDVXUHPHQW RI (QYLURQPHQWDO 9DOXHV DQG 5HVRXUFHV 7KHRU\ DQG 0HWKRGV
5HVRXUFHVIRUWKH)XWXUH:DVKLQJWRQ'&
)XQWRZLF]65DYHW]-3RVWQRUPDO6FLHQFH6FLHQFHDQG*RYHUQDQFHXQGHU&RQGLWLRQVRI&RPSOH[LW\
,Q 'HNNHU 0 (G ,QWHUGLVFLSOLQDULW\ LQ 7HFKQRORJLFDO $VVHVVPHQW ± ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ DQG LWV &KDQFHV DQG
/LPLWV6SULQJHU9HUODJ%HUOLQS
*DOORZD\ -1 /HY\ ,, + .DVLEKDWOD 36 <HDU &RQVHTXHQFHV RI 3RSXODWLRQ *URZWK DQG
'HYHORSPHQWRQ'HSRVLWLRQRI2[LGL]HG1LWURJHQ$PELR
*DOORZD\ -1 /LNHQV *( .HHQH :& 0LOOHU -0 7KH &RPSRVLWLRQ RI 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ LQ 5HPRWH
$UHDVRIWKH:RUOG-*HRSK\V5HV±
*LEERQV0/LPRJHV&1RZRWQ\+6FKZDUW]PDQQ66FRWW37URZ07KH1HZ3URGXFWLRQRI
.QRZOHGJH6DJH3XEOLFDWLRQV/RQGRQ
*RXJK&&DVWHOOV1)XQWRZLF]6,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWDQ(PHUJLQJ0HWKRGRORJ\IRU&RPSOH[
,VVXHV(QYLURQPHQWDO0RGHOLQJDQG$VVHVVPHQW
*UDHGHO 7( $OOHQE\ %5 ,QGXVWULDO (FRORJ\ 3UHQWLFH +DOO ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6HULHV LQ ,QGXVWULDO DQG
6\VWHPV(QJLQHHULQJ3HDUVRQ(GXFDWLRQ,QF1HZ-HUVH\
*UHORZVNL $ 3DVWXV]DN 0 6LWHN 6 :LWHN = %XGJHW &DOFXODWLRQV RI 1LWURJHQ 3KRVSKRURXV DQG
%2'3DVVLQJWKURXJKWKH2GHU(VWXDU\-RXUQDORI0DULQH6\VWHPV
*URV -* 2VWURP 75 $ 'HFLVLRQ $QDO\WLFDO $SSURDFK WR 5LYHU %DVLQ 3ROOXWLRQ &RQWURO ,,$6$
5HVHDUFK0HPRUDQGXP/D[HQEXUJ$XVWULD
+DLJK1&KDOOHQJHVDQG2SSRUWXQLWLHVIRU,($6FLHQFH3ROLF\,QWHUDFWLRQVIURPD3ROLF\3HUVSHFWLYH
(QYLURQPHQWDO0RGHOLQJDQG$VVHVVPHQW
+nNDQVRQ/2QWKH3ULQFLSOHVDQGIDFWRUV'HWHUPLQLQJWKH3UHGLFWLYH6XFFHVVRI(FRV\VWHP0RGHOV
ZLWKD)RFXVRQ/DNH(XWURSKLFDWLRQ0RGHOV(FRORJLFDO0RGHOOLQJ
+DUUHPRsV37KH&KDOOHQJHRI0DQDJLQJ:DWHUDQGPDWHULDO%DODQFHVLQ5HODWLRQWR(XWURSKLFDWLRQ
:DWHU6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\
+DUULV * ,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWDQG0RGHOOLQJ$Q(VVHQWLDO:D\RI'RLQJ6FLHQFH(QYLURQPHQWDO
0RGHOOLQJ6RIWZDUH
+DYHQV .( )XNXVKLPD 7 ;LH 3 ,ZDNXPD 7 -DPHV 57 7DNDPXUD 1 +DQD]DWR 7 <DNDPRWR 7
1XWULHQW'\QDPLFVDQGWKH(XWURSKLFDWLRQRI6KDOORZODNHV.DVXPLJDXUD-DSDQ'RQJKX35&KLQD
DQG2NHHFKREHH86$(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQ
+H&5LJJV-).DQJ<,QWHJUDWLRQRI*HRJUDSKLF,QIRUPDWLRQ6\VWHPVDQGD&RPSXWHU0RGHOWR
(YDOXDWH,PSDFWVRI$JULFXOWXUDO5XQRIIRQ:DWHU4XDOLW\:DWHU5HVRXUFHV%XOOHWLQ
+HVVLRQ :& 0F%ULGH 0 %HQQHW 0 6WDWHZLGH 1RQSRLQWVRXUFH 3ROOXWLRQ $VVHVVPHQW
0HWKRGRORJ\-RXUQDORI:DWHU5HVRXUFHV3ODQQLQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW
+RSSH 5 3ROLF\ $QDO\VLV 6FLHQFH DQG 3ROLWLFV IURP µ6SHDNLQJ 7UXWK WR 3RZHU¶ WR µ0DNLQJ 6HQVH
7RJHWKHU¶6FLHQFHDQG3ROLF\
&KDSWHU
+RUGLMN/8VHRIWKH5$,160RGHOLQ$FLG5DLQ1HJRWLDWLRQVLQ(XURSH(QYLURQPHQWDO6FLHQFHDQG
7HFKQRORJ\
+RUGLMN/,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW0RGHOVDVD%DVLVIRU$LU3ROOXWLRQ1HJRWLDWLRQV:DWHU$LUDQG6RLO
3ROOXWLRQ
+RUGLMN/YDQ$DUGHQQH-.URH]H&,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW0RGHOVDQG8QFHUWDLQW\$QDO\VLV3DSHU
SUHVHQWHGDWWKH(),($:RUNVKRSRQ8QFHUWDLQW\3DUNKRWHO%DGHQ$XVWULD-XO\
+XWFKNLQVRQ*()$7UHDWLVHRQ/LPQRORJ\9RO,*HRJUDSK\3K\VLFVDQG&KHPLVWU\-RKQ:LOH\
6RQV1HZ<RUN
,&,6,QWHUQDWLRQDO&HQWUHIRU,QWHJUDWLYH6WXGLHV,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW$%LUGV(\H¶V9LHZ0DDVWULFKW
8QLYHUVLW\0DDVWULFKWWKH1HWKHUODQGV
-lJHU-&XUUHQW7KLQNLQJRQ8VLQJ6FLHQWLILF)LQGLQJVLQ(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROLF\0DNLQJ
-¡UJHQVHQ 6( 9ROOHQZHLGHU 5$ *XLGHOLQHV RI /DNH 0DQDJHPHQW ± 9ROXPH , 3ULQFLSOHV RI /DNH
0DQDJHPHQW,QWHUQDWLRQDO/DNH(QYLURQPHQWDO&RPPLWWHH.\RPDWFKL-DSDQ
.DKQ+:LHQGHU$7KH<HDU0DF0LOODQ1HZ<RUN
.LWH*:5HFHQW&KDQJHVLQ/HYHORI/DNH9LFWRULD+\GURORJLFDO6FLHQFHV%XOOHWLQ
.LWH*:5HFHQW&KDQJHVLQ/DNH9LFWRULD/HYHOV+\GURORJLFDO6FLHQFHV-RXUQDO
.LWH*:5HJXODWLRQVRIWKH:KLWH1LOH+\GURORJLFDO6FLHQFHV-RXUQDO
.URH]H & 6HLW]LQJHU 63 1LWURJHQ ,QSXWV WR 5LYHUV (VWXDULHV DQG &RQWLQHQWDO 6KHOYHV DQG 5HODWHG
1LWURXV2[LGH(PLVVLRQVLQDQGD*OREDO0RGHO1XWULHQW&\FOLQJLQ$JURHFRV\VWHPV±
.URH]H&6HLW]LQJHU637KH,PSDFWRI/DQG8VHLQ(XURSHRQ1,QSXWVWR5LYHUVDQG(VWXDULHVDQG
5HODWHG12(PLVVLRQV$6FHQDULR$QDO\VLV3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH6\PSRVLXP´$JULFXOWXUDO(IIHFWVRQ*URXQG
DQG6XUIDFH:DWHUV5HVHDUFKDWWKH(GJHRI6FLHQFHDQG6RFLHW\´:DJHQLQJHQ2FWREHU,$+63XEOQR
.URH]H&6HLW]LQJHU63'RPLQJXHV5)XWXUH7UHQGVLQ:RUOGZLGH5LYHU1LWURJHQ7UDQVSRUWDQG
5HODWHG 1LWURXV 2[LGH (PLVVLRQV $ 6FHQDULR $QDO\VLV ,Q 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH QG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 1LWURJHQ
&RQIHUHQFHRQ6FLHQFHDQG3ROLF\7KH6FLHQFH:RUOG
.XOOHQEHUJ*&RQWULEXWLRQVRI0DULQHDQG&RDVWDO$UHD5HVHDUFKDQG2EVHUYDWLRQVWRZDUGV6XVWDLQDEOH
'HYHORSPHQWRI/DUJH&RDVWDO&LWLHV2FHDQ&RDVWDO0DQDJHPHQW
.ZD&'UHVHQ/5HDGHUV8VHUVDQG5HJLPHV,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW0RGHOVLQ&RQWH[W,QWHJUDWHG
$VVHVVPHQW
/DQJHZHJ ) 7KH ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI $JHQGD µ2XU &RPPRQ )DLOXUH¶" 7KH 6FLHQFH RI WKH 7RWDO
(QYLURQPHQW
/HRQDUG 5$ .QLVHO :* 6HOHFWLRQ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQ RI 0RGHOV IRU1RQSRLQW6RXUFH3ROOXWLRQDQG
5HVRXUFH&RQVHUYDWLRQ,Q*LRUJLQL$DQG=LQJDOHV)(GV$JULFXOWXUDO1RQSRLQW6RXUFH3ROOXWLRQ0RGHO
6HOHFWLRQ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6RFLHW\ IRU (FRORJLFDO 0RGHOLQJ ,6(0 (OVHYLHU &RSHQKDJHQ
'HQPDUN
/LPEXUJ .( 2¶1HLOO 59 &RQVWDQ]D 5 )DUEHU 6 &RPSOH[ 6\VWHPV DQG 9DOXDWLRQ (FRORJLFDO
(FRQRPLFV
/RQLQ6$7XFKNRYHQNR<6:DWHU4XDOLW\0RGHOOLQJIRUWKH(FRV\VWHPRIWKH&LpQDJDGH7HVFD
&RDVWDO/DJRRQ(FRORJLFDO0RGHOOLQJ
/XLWHQ+$/HJLVODWLYH9LHZRQ6FLHQFHDQG3UHGLFWLYH0RGHOV(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQ
/XNV)3RVWQRUPDO6FLHQFHDQGWKH5KHWRULFRI,QTXLU\'HFRQVWUXFWLRQ1RUPDO6FLHQFH)XWXUHV
0DWR*URXQGZDWHU3ROOXWLRQLQ8UEDQ'DUHVVDODDP7DQ]DQLD$VVHVVLQJ9XOQHUDELOLW\DQG3URWHFWLRQ
3ULRULWLHV3K'7KHVLV(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
0F.HDQ51(IILFLHQF\LQ*RYHUQDQFHWKURXJK6\VWHPV$QDO\VLV-RKQ:LOH\6RQV,QF1HZ<RUN
0HH/'%OR[KDP0$VVHVVLQJWKH,PSDFWRI3ROOXWLRQRQ$TXDWLF6\VWHPVDWD*OREDODQG5HJLRQDO
/HYHO0DULQH(QYLURQPHQWDO5HVHDUFK
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
0HWFDOIDQG(GG\,QF:DVWHZDWHU(QJLQHHULQJ7UHDWPHQW'LVSRVDODQG5HXVH1HZ<RUN0F*UDZ
+LOO
0pWRQJR%6.DED1DQG.RXDVVL$0(YDOXDWLRQ4XDQWLWDWLYHHW4XDOLWDWLYHGHV(IIOXHQWVHWGHV
3ROOXDQWV&HQWUHGH5HFKHUFKHV2FpDQRORJLTXHV$ELGMDQ&{WHG
,YRLUH
0H\EHFN 0 &DUERQ 1LWURJHQ DQG 3KRVSKRURXV 7UDQVSRUW E\ :RUOG 5LYHUV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI
6FLHQFH
0LVHU+-4XDGH(6+DQGERRNRI6\VWHPV$QDO\VLV2YHUYLHZRI8VHV3URFHGXUHV$SSOLFDWLRQVDQG
3UDFWLFH-RKQ:LOH\6RQV&KLFKHVWHU
0RUJDQ*0+HQULRQ08QFHUWDLQW\±$*XLGHWR'HDOLQJZLWK8QFHUWDLQW\LQ4XDQWLWDWLYH5LVNDQG
3ROLF\$QDO\VLV&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV1HZ<RUN
0XONH\/$&DUVHO5)6PLWK&1,Q*LRUJLQL$DQG=LQJDOHV)(GV$JULFXOWXUDO1RQSRLQW
6RXUFH 3ROOXWLRQ 0RGHO 6HOHFWLRQ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6RFLHW\ IRU (FRORJLFDO 0RGHOLQJ ,6(0 (OVHYLHU&RSHQKDJHQ'HQPDUN
1(5, ± 1DWLRQDO (QYLURQPHQWDO 5HVHDUFK ,QVWLWXWH ,QWHJUDWHG (QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW RQ
(XWURSKLFDWLRQ$3LORW6WXG\7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW1R0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWDQG(QHUJ\1(5,7DQ]DQLD
1LHPHLMHU ' 'HYHORSLQJ ,QGLFDWRUV IRU (QYLURQPHQWDO 3ROLF\ 'DWDGULYHQ DQG 7KHRU\GULYHQ
$SSURDFKHV([DPLQHGE\([DPSOH(QYLURQPHQWDO6FLHQFH3ROLF\
1L[RQ 6: $PPHUPDQ -: $WNLQVRQ /3 %HURXQVN\ 90 %LOOHQ * %RLFRXUW :& %D\WRQ :5
&KXUFK70'LWRUR'0(OPJUHQ5*DUEHU-+*LEOLQ$(-DKQNH5$2ZHQV1-33LOVRQ0(4
6HLW]LQJHU 63 7KH )DWH RI 1LWURJHQ DQG 3KRVSKRURXV DW WKH /DQGVHD 0DUJLQ RI WKH 1RUWK $WODQWLF
&RDVW%LRJHRFKHP
1RYRWQ\95HYLHZRI+\GURORJLFDQG:DWHU4XDOLW\0RGHOVXVHGIRUWKH6LPXODWLRQRI$JULFXOWXUDO
3ROOXWLRQ,Q*LRUJLQL$DQG=LQJDOHV)(GV$JULFXOWXUDO1RQSRLQW6RXUFH3ROOXWLRQ0RGHO6HOHFWLRQDQG
$SSOLFDWLRQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO6RFLHW\IRU(FRORJLFDO0RGHOLQJ,6(0(OVHYLHU&RSHQKDJHQ'HQPDUN
2UORYVNL 6 .DGHQ 6 YDQ $OVXP 3 'HFLVLRQ 6XSSRUW 6\VWHP IRU WKH $QDO\VLV RI 5HJLRQDO :DWHU
3ROLFLHV,,$6$HSRUW1R:3/D[HQEXUJ$XVWULD
2VWURP75*URV-*$SSOLFDWLRQRI'HFLVLRQ$QDO\WLFDO$SSURDFKWR3ROOXWLRQ&RQWURO7KH5KLQH
5LYHU6WXG\,,$6$5HVHDUFK0HPRUDQGXP/D[HQEXUJ$XVWULD
3DUNHU3/HWFKHU5-DNHPDQ$%HFN0%+DUULV*$UJHQW50+DUH03DKO:LVWO&9RLQRY$
-DQVVHQ06XOOLYDQ36FRFFLPDUUR0)ULHQG$6RQQHQVKHLQ0%DUNHU'0DWHMLFHN/2GXODMD'
'HDGPDQ 3 /LP . /DURFTXH * 7DULNKL 3 )OHWFKHU & 3XW $ 0D[ZHOO 7 &KDUOHV $ %UHH]H +
1DNDWDQL10XGJDO61DLWR:2VLGLOH2(ULNVVRQ,.DXWVN\8.DXWVN\(1DHVOXQG%.XPEODG
/3DUN50DOWDJOLDWL6*LUDUGLQ35L]]ROL$0DXULHOOR'+RFK53HOOHWLHU'5HLOO\-2ODIVGRWWLU
5%LQ63URJUHVVLQ,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWDQG0RGHOOLQJ(QYLURQPHQWDO0RGHOOLQJ6RIWZDUH
3DUVRQ($,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROLF\0DNLQJ(QHUJ\3ROLF\
3HLHUOV%/&DUDFR1)3DFH0/&ROH--+XPDQ,QIOXHQFHRQ5LYHU1LWURJHQ1DWXUH
3HQWUHDWK5-6WUDWHJLF(QYLURQPHQWDOPDQDJHPHQW7LPHIRUD1HZ$SSURDFK7KH6FLHQFHRIWKH7RWDO
(QYLURQPHQW
3LSHU %6 3OLQVWRQ 7 6XWFOLIIH -9 7KH :DWHU %DODQFH RI /DNH 9LFWRULD +\GURORJLFDO 6FLHQFHV
-RXUQDO
5LVEH\-.DQGOLNDU03DWZDUGKDQ$$VVHVVLQJ,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQWV&OLPDWLF&KDQJH
5RWPDQV - 0HWKRGV IRU ,$ 7KH &KDOOHQJHV DQG 2SSRUWXQLWLHV $KHDG (QYLURQPHQWDO 0RGHOLQJ DQG
$VVHVVPHQW
5RWPDQV - 9DQ $VVHOW 0%$ 8QFHUWDLQW\ LQ ,QWHJUDWHG $VVHVVPHQW 0RGHOOLQJ $ /DE\ULQWK 3DWK
,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW
5RZH:'8QGHUVWDQGLQJ8QFHUWDLQW\5LVN$QDO\VLV
&KDSWHU
6DULND\D+=6HYLPOL0)dLWLO(5HJLRQZLGH$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH/DQGEDVHG6RXUFHVRI3ROOXWLRQ
RIWKH%ODFN6HD:DWHU6FLHQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\
6FKHUHQ3$*0$6\VWHPDWLF$SSURDFKWR/DNH:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQ/DNH
9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\WKH1HWKHUODQGV
6FKQHLGHU6+,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW0RGHOLQJRI*OREDO&OLPDWH&KDQJH7UDQVSDUHQW5DWLRQDO7RRO
IRU 3ROLF\ 0DNLQJ RU 2SDTXH 6FUHHQ +LGLQJ 9DOXHODGHQ $VVXPSWLRQV" (QYLURQPHQWDO 0RGHOLQJ DQG
$VVHVVPHQW
6FKRRI'-:$OJHPHQH$VSHFWHQYDQGH0LOLHXNXQGH,Q%RHUVHPD--&RSLXV3HHUHERRP-:GH
*URRW:7(GV%DVLVERHN0LOLHXNXQGH%RRP0HSSHO$PVWHUGDP
6KDFNOH\6:\QQH%,QWHJUDWHG.QRZOHGJHVIRU&OLPDWH&KDQJH3\UDPLGV1HWVDQG8QFHUWDLQWLHV
*OREDO(QYLURQPHQWDO&KDQJH
6KHUPDQ . 7KH *XOI RI *XLQHD DQG *OREDO 'HYHORSPHQWV DQG 6XVWDLQDELOLW\ RI /DUJH 0DULQH
(FRV\VWHPV ,Q ,EH $& 2WHQJ<HERDK $$ =DEL 6* $IRODEL ' (GV ,QWHJUDWHG (QYLURQPHQWDO DQG
/LYLQJ 5HVRXUFHV 0DQDJHPHQW LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD 7KH /DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHP $SSURDFK &6,5 3UHVV
$FFUD*KDQD
6KHUPDQ . $OH[DQGHU /0 *ROG %' /DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHPV 6WUHVV 0LWLJDWLRQ DQG
6XVWDLQDELOLW\$$$63UHVV:DVKLQJWRQ'&
6LVVRKR,0-DUMX25DSLG$VVHVVPHQWRI/DQGEDVHG6RXUFHVRI3ROOXWLRQ±&DVH6WXG\WKH*DPELD
5HSRUWSUHSDUHGIRUWKH)$2,2&:+2,$($81(3:$&$),,3URMHFW%DQMXO*DPELD
6RFOR+++RXQJXH75DSSRUWVXUO¶(VWLPDWLRQGHV&KDUJHV3ROOXDQWHVG¶2ULJLQH7HUULJqQH$LU(DX
6RO HQ 5pSXEOLTXH GX %pQLQ 5HSRUW SUHSDUHG IRU WKH )$2,2&:+2,$($81(3 :$&$) ,, 3URMHFW
&RWRQRX%HQLQ
6RUR 0% (YDOXDWLRQ 5DSLGH GHV 6RXUFHV GH 3ROOXWLRQ $WPRVSKpULTXHV +\GULTXHV HW 7HOOXULTXHV HQ
&{WHG¶,YRLUH5HSRUWSUHSDUHGIRUWKH81,'281'3*()*2*/0(3URMHFW$ELGMDQ&{WHG¶,YRLUH
6XJLKDUWR70F,QWRVK7+8KULJ5&/DUGLQRLV--0RGHOLQJ$OWHUQDWLYHVWR5HGXFH'DLU\)DUP
DQG:DWHUVKHG1RQSRLQW6RXUFH3ROOXWLRQ-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO4XDOLW\
6ZDUW 5- %DNNHV -$ 1LHVVHQ /: 5RWPDQV - GH 9ULHV +-0 :HWHULQJV 5 6FDQQLQJ WKH
*OREDO(QYLURQPHQW$)UDPHZRUNDQG0HWKRGRORJ\IRU,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO0RQLWRULQJDQG$VVHVVPHQW
81(37HFKQLFDO5HSRUW1R81(3($375
7DQVOH\$*7KH8VHDQG$EXVHRI9HJHWDWLRQDO&RQFHSWVDQG7HUPV(FRORJ\
7KRPDQQ590XHOOHU-$3ULQFLSOHVRI6XUIDFH:DWHU4XDOLW\0RGHOLQJDQG&RQWURO+DUSHU5RZ
1HZ<RUN
7KRPDQQ 59 )LW]SDWULFN -- &DOLEUDWLRQ DQG 9HULILFDWLRQ RI D 0RGHO RI WKH 3RWRPDF (VWXDU\
+\GUR4XDO,QF)LQDO5HSRUWWR'&'HSDUWPHQWRI(QYLURQPHQWDO6HUYLFHV:DVKLQJWRQ'&
7RJQHWWL 66 6FLHQFH LQ D 'RXEOHELQG *UHJRU\ %DWHVRQ DQG WKH 2ULJLQV RI 3RVWQRUPDO 6FLHQFH
)XWXUHV
7RO56-9HOOLQJD37KH(XURSHDQ)RUXPRQ,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW(QYLURQPHQWDO
0RGHOLQJDQG$VVHVVPHQW
7RWK )/ +L]VQ\LN ( ,QWHJUDWHG (QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW 0HWKRGV (YROXWLRQ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQV
(QYLURQPHQWDO0RGHOLQJDQG$VVHVVPHQW
7XUQHU5.,QWHJUDWLQJ1DWXUDODQG6RFLRHFRQRPLF6FLHQFHLQ&RDVWDO0DQDJHPHQW-RXUQDORI0DULQH
6\VWHPV
7XUQHU 5. 6XEDN 6 $GJHU :1 3UHVVXUHV 7UHQGV DQG ,PSDFWV LQ &RDVWDO =RQHV ,QWHUDFWLRQV
EHWZHHQ6RFLRHFRQRPLFDQG1DWXUDO6\VWHPV(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW
7XUQHU 5. /RUHQ]RQL , %HDXPRQW 1 %DWHPDQ ,- /DQJIRUG ,+ 0F'RQQDOG $/ &RDVWDO
0DQDJHPHQWIRU6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW$QDO\VLQJ(QYLURQPHQWDODQG6RFLRHFRQRPLF&KDQJHVRQWKH8.
&RDVW7KH*HRJUDSKLFDO-RXUQDO
7XUQHU5.*HRUJLRX6*UHQ,0:XOII)%DUHWW66|GHUTYLVW7%DWHPDQ,-)RONH&/DQJDDV6
=\OLF] 7 0lOHU .* 0DUNRZVND $ 0DQDJLQJ 1XWULHQW )OX[HV DQG 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH %DOWLF DQ
,QWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\6LPXODWLRQ6WXG\(FRORJLFDO(FRQRPLFV
7KHRUHWLFDODQG0HWKRGRORJLFDO)UDPHZRUN
8GRGH+DHV+$$OJHPHQH$VSHFWHQYDQGH0LOLHXNXQGH,Q%RHUVHPD--&RSLXV3HHUHERRP-:
GH*URRW:7(GV%DVLVERHN0LOLHXNXQGH%RRP0HSSHO$PVWHUGDP
81(3±8QLWHG1DWLRQV(QYLURQPHQW3URJUDP*ULG$UHQGDO:HE6LWHKWWSZZZJULGDQRVRH
8QLYHUVLWp &KHLNK $QWD 'LRS GH 'DNDU (YDOXDWLRQ GH OD 3ROOXWLRQ GH O¶(QYLURQQHPHQW GH OD 9LOOH GH
GDNDU5HSRUWSUHSDUHGIRUWKH)$2,2&:+2,$($81(3:$&$),,3URMHFW'DNDU6HQHJDO
9DOLHOD,%RZHQ-/1LWURJHQ6RXUFHVWR:DWHUVKHGVDQG(VWXDULHV5ROHRI/DQG&RYHU0RVDLFVDQG
/RVVHVZLWKLQ:DWHUVKHGV(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQ
9DQ $DUGHQQH -$ 8QFHUWDLQWLHV LQ (PLVVLRQ ,QYHQWRULHV 3K' 7KHVLV :DJHQLQJHQ 8QLYHUVLW\ WKH
1HWKHUODQGV
9DQ $VVHOW 0 5RWPDQV - 9DQ (O]HQ 0 +LOGHULQN + 8QFHUWDLQW\ LQ ,QWHJUDWHG $VVHVVPHQW
0RGHOOLQJ±$&XOWXUDO3HUVSHFWLYHEDVH$SSURDFK*/2%25HSRUW6HULHV1R5,905HSRUW1R
9DQ$VVHOW0%$5RWPDQV-8QFHUWDLQW\LQ3HUVSHFWLYH*OREDO(QYLURQPHQWDO&KDQJH
9OLHJKH 3 $VVHVVPHQW RI WKH 9XOQHUDELOLW\ RI )LVKLQJ &RPPXQLWLHV 7RZDUGV ,QFUHDVLQJ 3ROOXWLRQ RI
/DNH9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD3UHVHQW6LWXDWLRQDQG6RFLRHFRQRPLF7UHQGV06F7KHVLV8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\
(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
9ROOHQZHLGHU5$6FLHQWLILF)XQGDPHQWDOVRIWKH(XWURSKLFDWLRQRI/DNHVDQG)ORZLQJ:DWHUVZLWK
3DUWLFXODU 5HIHUHQFH WR 1LWURJHQ DQG 3KRVSKRURXV DV )DFWRUV LQ (XWURSKLFDWLRQ 7HFKQLFDO 5HSRUW 1R
'$6&6,2(&'3DULV
9ROOHQZHLGHU5$$GYDQFHVLQGHILQLQJFULWLFDOORDGLQJOHYHOVIRUSKRVSKRURXVLQODNHHXWURSKLFDWLRQ
0HPVW,WDO,GURELRO
:DOPVOH\ -- )UDPHZRUN IRU 0HDVXULQJ 6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW LQ &DWFKPHQW 6\VWHPV
(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW
:DUG -9 7KH )RXUGLPHQVLRQDO 1DWXUH 2IORWLF (FRV\VWHPV -RXUQDO RI WKH 1RUWK $PHULFDQ
%HQWKRORJLFDO6RFLHW\
:RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH:RUOG5HVRXUFHV3HRSOHDQG(FRV\VWHPV7KH)UD\LQJ:HERI
/LIH8QLWHG1DWLRQV'HYHORSPHQW3URJUDP8QLWHG1DWLRQV(QYLURQPHQW3URJUDP:RUOGEDQN:RUOG5HVRXUFHV
,QVWLWXWH:DVKLQJWRQ'&
&KDSWHU
&KDSWHU
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
&DVHVWXG\1R
&KDSWHUSUHVHQWVWKHUHVXOWVRIDQ,:3$RI/DNH9LFWRULDEDVHGXSRQWKHWKHRUHWLFDODQG
PHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNSUHVHQWHGLQFKDSWHU6HFWLRQ VWDUWVZLWKDQLQWURGXFWLRQWR
WKHFDVHGHVFULELQJLWVFRQWH[WDQGSUREOHPDQGGHILQLQJWKHUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYHVERXQGDULHV
DQGFRQVWUDLQWV7KHDFWXDODVVHVVPHQWLVSUHVHQWHGE\PHDQVRIUHSULQWVRIWKUHHSXEOLFDWLRQV
6FKHUHQHWDODELQUHVSHFWLYHO\VHFWLRQVDQG)XUWKHUPRUH
VHFWLRQVWRSUHVHQWDQRYHUDOODQDO\VLVRIWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWDQDQDO\VLVRI
XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ GDWD DQG UHVXOWV DQG D VXPPDU\ RI WKH PDLQ FRQFOXVLRQV DQG
UHFRPPHQGDWLRQVIROORZLQJIURPWKHDVVHVVPHQW
,QWURGXFWLRQWRWKHFDVH
3UREOHPGHILQLWLRQ
$WWZRWLPHVWKHVL]HRIWKH1HWKHUODQGVNP/DNH9LFWRULDLVWKHODUJHVW$IULFDQODNH
DQG WKLUG RQ D JOREDO VFDOH %HHWRQ 7KH ODNH LV VXUURXQGHG E\ WKUHH FRXQWULHV Š
7DQ]DQLD8JDQGDDQG.HQ\DŠZKLFKFRQWUROUHVSHFWLYHO\DQGRILWVVXUIDFH
DUHD,WVVROHRXWOHWLVWKH5LYHU1LOHOHDYLQJWKHODNHQHDU-LQMD8JDQGD)LJXUHGLVSOD\V
/DNH9LFWRULDDQGLWVFDWFKPHQWDUHD7KHODNHLVDFUXFLDOUHVRXUFHWRLWVULSDULDQSRSXODWLRQ
ZKLFKPDNHVXVHRILWVUHVRXUFHVIRUILVKHU\ZDWHUVXSSO\DQGDYHQXHVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQDQGLV
WKHUHZLWK DQ LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU WR WKH VRFLRHFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH UHJLRQ %LRORJLVWV
PRUHRYHUYDOXHWKHODNHKLJKO\EHFDXVHRILWVXQLTXHDQGGLYHUVHHFRV\VWHP
6RRQDIWHUWKHGLVFRYHU\RIWKHODNHLQE\WKH%ULWLVKH[SORUHU-RKQ6SHNHGXULQJKLV
VHDUFKIRUWKHVRXUFHRIWKHULYHU1LOHKXPDQLQWHUIHUHQFHLQWKHODNH¶VHQYLURQPHQWVWDUWHG
7KHZLHOG\YHJHWDWLRQRQWKHVKRUHVRIWKHODNHZDVUHSODFHGE\SODQWDWLRQVRIFRIIHHWHDDQG
VXJDUFDQH 7KH SRSXODWLRQ DURXQG WKH ODNH HQRUPRXVO\ GHYHORSHG WR RYHU PLOOLRQ
LQKDELWDQWVDWSUHVHQWPDNLQJLWRQHRIWKHPRVWGHQVHO\SRSXODWHGDUHDVLQ$IULFD:LWKLWWKH
FXOWLYDWLRQRIODQGIRUDJULFXOWXUDOSXUSRVHVKDVERRPHGDQGLQGXVWU\KDVVWURQJO\GHYHORSHG
3ROOXWLRQ FDXVHG E\ WKH LQFUHDVLQJ GRPHVWLF LQGXVWULDO DQG DJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLWLHV DQG
WUDQVSRUW KDYH UHVXOWHG LQ D GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI ZDWHU TXDOLW\ LQ SDUWLFXODU LQ WHUPV RI
HXWURSKLFDWLRQ DV FRQFOXGHG E\ %RRWVPD DQG +HFN\ /LQGHQVFKPLGW HW DO /XQJ¶D\LD HW DO 0DWDJL :RUOG %DQN81(3 :RUOG %DQN81(3)$2
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
,Q WKH V WKH ODNH¶V PRVW LPSRUWDQW ILVK VSHFLHV WKH 1JHJH KDG DOPRVW FRPSOHWHO\
GLVDSSHDUHG XQGHU SUHVVXUH RI LQWHQVLYH ILVKHULHV $V D UHDFWLRQ WKH %ULWLVK $XWKRULWLHV
LQWURGXFHGWKH1LOH3HUFKDQG1LOH7LODSLD8QWKUHDWHQHGE\QDWXUDOSUHGDWRUVWKHSHUFKDWH
DZD\PRUHWKDQKDOIRIWKHHQGHPLFFLFKOLGVSHFLHVFDXVLQJDGUDPDWLFWXUQRYHURIWKHODNH¶V
HFRV\VWHP%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\*ROGVPLWKHWDO*RSKHQHWDO.DXIPDQ
:LWWHHWDODDQGE0RUHRYHUDQHZVSHFLHVLQYDGHGWKHODNHLQWKH
ZDWHUK\DFLQWK2ULJLQDOO\LPSRUWHGIURP6RXWK$PHULFDDVDGHFRUDWLYHSODQWLWHQWHUHGWKH
ODNH IURP 5ZDQGD YLD WKH .DJHUD 5LYHU DQG QRZDGD\V FRPSOHWHO\ RFFXSLHV WKH ED\V DQG
VKRUHOLQHVRIWKHODNH0DWDJL
)LJXUH 7KHFDWFKPHQW
DUHDRI/DNH9LFWRULD
LQGLFDWHGE\DEURNHQOLQH
,QWHUQDWLRQDOERXQGDULHVDUH
GHPDUFDWHGE\IXOOOLQHV
$VDUHVXOWRIWKHJURZLQJSUHVVXUHRQLWVHQYLURQPHQWWKHODNHKDVXQGHUJRQHODUJHFKDQJHVLQ
FKHPLVWU\ DQG ELRORJ\ (XWURSKLFDWLRQ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD VWDUWHG DV HDUO\ DV WKH V DQG
DFFHOHUDWHG LQ WKH V %HHWRQ $OJDO ELRPDVV KDV LQFUHDVHG WKUHH WR ILYHIROG DQG
SULPDU\SURGXFWLYLW\KDVGRXEOHG,WVFRQVHTXHQFHVPDQLIHVWLQDOJDOEORRPVLQWKHODNHZDWHUV
/XQJ¶D\LDHWDO2FKXPEDDQG.LEDDUDDQGSHULRGLFPDVVLYHILVKPRUWDOLW\LQ
WKH.HQ\DQSRUWLRQRIWKHODNHDVDUHVXOWRIR[\JHQGHSOHWLRQ+HFN\HWDO/XQJ¶D\LDHW
DO 2FKXPED :RUVHQLQJ KHDOWK FRQGLWLRQV PRUH ZLGHVSUHDG ZDWHUERUQH
GLVHDVHVDQGUHGXFHGEHQHILWVWRULSDULDQSHRSOHXVLQJWKHODNHDVDVRXUFHRIGULQNLQJZDWHURU
IRUILVKLQJUHVXOW
&KDSWHU
0DQ\ UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH WULHG WR H[SODLQ WKH FKDQJHV LQ WKH WURSKLF VWDWH RI /DNH 9LFWRULD
DWWULEXWLQJLWWRDFRPELQDWLRQRILQFUHDVHGQXWULHQWLQSXWIURPDQWKURSRJHQLFLQIOXHQFHVDQGD
UHGXFWLRQ LQ GHWULYRURXVSK\WRSODQNWLYLURXV ILVK VSHFLHV UHVXOWLQJ LQ ORZHU SODQNWRQ JUD]LQJ
UDWHV (YLGHQFH H[LVWV IRU QLWURJHQ 1 OLPLWHG SK\WRSODQNWRQ JURZWK WRGD\ /HKPDQ DQG
%UDQVWUDWRUDFFRPSDQLHGE\DVKLIWLQELRPDVVFRPSRVLWLRQWRZDUGV1IL[LQJ
F\DQREDFWHULD%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\*RSKHQHWDO+HFN\/XQJ¶D\LDHWDO
0XJLGGH 2FKXPED DQG .LEDDUD 0RUHRYHU QXWULHQW VHGLPHQWDWLRQ KDV
LQFUHDVHGFRQVLGHUDEO\+HFN\.HQGDOO/LQGHQVFKPLGWHWDO0RWKHUVLOO
$ TXDQWLILHG DVVHVVPHQW RI WKHVH FKDQJHV LQ WKH QXWULHQW EDODQFH RI /DNH 9LFWRULD KDV
KRZHYHUQRW\HWEHHQSHUIRUPHG7KHODFNRIVXFKGLVDEOHVWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIDSSURSULDWH
DQGHIIHFWLYHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVWRLPSURYHWKHFRQGLWLRQRIWKHODNHRUDWOHDVWSUHYHQWIXUWKHU
GHJUDGDWLRQRIWKHVWDWHRIWKHODNH
2EMHFWLYHVRIDQDO\VLV
7KH REMHFWLYH RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV FKDSWHU IRFXVHV RQ WKH SUREOHP RI ZDWHU
SROOXWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULDDQGFDQEHGHILQHGDV
WRGHYHORSDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQFRQWUROPHDVXUHVIRU
WKH*XOIRI*XLQHDRQWKHEDVLVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
7KURXJKDQ,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWLWLVDWWHPSWHGWRHVWDEOLVKDDVPXFKDV
SRVVLEOHTXDQWLWDWLYHPRGHORIWKHZDWHUV\VWHP7KLVZLOOEHDFKLHYHGE\
S DVVHVVLQJWKHGULYLQJIRUFHVQDWXUDODQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHSROOXWLRQSUREOHP
S DVVHVVLQJWKHSUHVVXUHVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDVVRFLDWHGZLWKIURPWKHVHGULYLQJIRUFHV
S DVVHVVLQJWKHLPSDFWRIWKHSUHVVXUHVRQWKHVWDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQW
S DVVHVVLQJWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIFKDQJHVLQWKHVWDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWRQQDWXUDODQGVRFLRHFRQRPLF
FRQGLWLRQV
S WKURXJKWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHDERYHPHQWLRQHGSURFHVVHVLGHQWLI\LQJDQGDVVHVVLQJWKHUHVSRQVH
RSWLRQWKURXJKZKLFKHQYLURQPHQWDOPDQDJHPHQWRIWKHVHZDWHUERGLHVPD\EHSRVVLEOH
%RXQGDULHVDQGFRQVWUDLQWV
7KH ERXQGDULHV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW DUH SULQFLSDOO\ GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP LWVHOI ,Q
SK\VLFDOWHUPVWKH\DUHGHOLQHDWHGE\WKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDRIWKHODNHDVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH
,QHFRORJLFDOWHUPVWKHDVVHVVPHQWFRQFHQWUDWHVRQWKHPDLQZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPRI
/DNH9LFWRULDZKLFKFRQFHUQVRUJDQLFSROOXWLRQORDGVDOWKRXJKLVVXHVRILQRUJDQLFSROOXWLRQ
DQGVROLGZDVWHDUHFRQVLGHUHGLQVHFWLRQ$VGLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQRWKHUELRFKHPLFDO
IXQFWLRQV DQG FRPSRQHQWV ZHUH H[FOXGHG IURP WKH DVVHVVPHQW $V LW FRQFHUQV WKH VRFLR
HFRQRPLF V\VWHP WKH DVVHVVPHQW LQFOXGHV WKH GULYLQJ IRUFHV EHKLQG WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO
SUHVVXUHV DV ZHOO DV WKH FRQVHTXHQW VRFLRHFRQRPLF LPSDFWV RI WKH GHJUDGDWLRQ RI WKH
HQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQRIWKHODNHZLWKLQWKHERXQGDULHVRIWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDRIWKHODNH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
$VVWDWHGLQVHFWLRQWKHDVVHVVPHQWFRQVLGHUVWKHFRPSOHWH'36,5IUDPHZRUN7KHIRFXV
LVKRZHYHURQWKHµGULYLQJIRUFHV¶µSUHVVXUH¶µVWDWH¶DQGµUHVSRQVH¶'36DQG5SDUWVRI
WKH IUDPHZRUN VHH )LJXUH SDJH IRU ZKLFK WKH REMHFWLYH LV WR DSSO\ D TXDQWLWDWLYH
DSSURDFK 7KH VWDWHLPSDFW UHODWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN LV DVVHVVHG RQO\
TXDOLWDWLYHO\
$ NH\ FRQVWUDLQW WR WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD LV WKH IDFW WKDW
TXDQWLWDWLYHGDWDRQWKHZDWHUTXDOLW\RIWKHODNHDQGUHODWHGDVSHFWVVXFKDVSROOXWLRQORDGV
IURP YDULRXV VRXUFHV DQG ZDWHU TXDOLW\ RI LQ DQG RXWIORZLQJ ULYHUV LV VFDUFH DQG ZKHUH
DYDLODEOH RIWHQ LQFRQVLVWHQW DQG XQUHOLDEOH 7KH DSSOLHG DVVHVVPHQW PHWKRGRORJLHV DV
GHVFULEHGLQFKDSWHUZHUHWKHUHIRUHVSHFLILFDOO\GHYHORSHGRUDGDSWHGWRFRSHZLWKWKLVGDWD
SRRUVLWXDWLRQ1HYHUWKHOHVVXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQUHVXOWVDUHDQLPSRUWDQWSRLQWRIDWWHQWLRQDQGZLOO
EHGLVFXVVHGLQGHWDLOLQVHFWLRQ
5HDGHUVJXLGH
7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW DUH SUHVHQWHG E\ PHDQV RI UHSULQWV RI WKUHH HDUOLHU
SXEOLVKHGVXEPLWWHGDUWLFOHV$QRYHUYLHZRIWKHDVSHFWVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNFRYHUHGE\
HDFKRIWKHVHSDSHUVLVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH
• 7DEOH
2YHUYLHZRISXEOLFDWLRQVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVFKDSWHULQFOXGLQJWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHDVSHFWV
LQUHODWLRQWRWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
6HFWLRQ 5HVHDUFK3DSHU
$VSHFWV
6FKHUHQ3$%RVERRP-&1MDX.1/HPPHQV$0$VVHVVPHQWRI
:DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH &DWFKPHQW $UHD RI /DNH 9LFWRULD 7DQ]DQLD -RXUQDO RI
(DVWHUQ$IULFDQ5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW
,,,,
6FKHUHQ 3$ =DQWLQJ +$ /HPPHQV $0 (VWLPDWLRQ RI :DWHU
3ROOXWLRQLQ/DNH9LFWRULD$SSOLFDWLRQDQG(ODERUDWLRQRIWKH5DSLG$VVHVVPHQW
0HWKRGRORJ\-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW
,,,,,,,9
6FKHUHQ3$0LUDPER9/HPPHQV$0-DQVVHQ)-.DWLPD-+
$VVHVVPHQWRI3ROOXWLRQ6RXUFHVDQG6RFLRHFRQRPLF&LUFXPVWDQFHVUHODWHGWRWKH
(XWURSKLFDWLRQ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD 6\PSRVLXPLQ.DPSDOD8JDQGD0D\
,,,,,,,9
,WLVQRWHGWKDWWKHWKUHHSXEOLFDWLRQVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHLU
RULJLQDO YHUVLRQ 7KHUHIRUH WR D YDU\LQJ H[WHQG WKH\ GR XQDYRLGDEO\ VKRZ RYHUODS
1HYHUWKHOHVVHDFKFRQVHFXWLYHFKDSWHUEXLOGVXSRQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHSUHYLRXVOHDGLQJLQWKH
HQGWRDFRPSUHKHQVLYHDVVHVVPHQWRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULDZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHP
$ ILQDO DQDO\VLV RI WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW LV IXUWKHUPRUH SUHVHQWHG LQ VHFWLRQ IROORZHGE\DQDQDO\VLVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDDQGUHVXOWVVHFWLRQDQGDVXPPDU\RIWKH
PDLQFRQFOXVLRQVDQGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVVHFWLRQRIWKHDVVHVVPHQW
)RUDFODVVLILFDWLRQRIDVSHFWVUHIHUVWR)LJXUHDQGDGMRLQLQJWH[W
&KDSWHU
$VVHVVPHQWRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQLQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDRI/DNH9LFWRULD
7DQ]DQLD
3$ 6FKHUHQ -& %RVERRP .1 1MDX $0 /HPPHQV -RXUQDO RI (DVWHUQ $IULFDQ
5HVHDUFK DQG 'HYHORSPHQW YROXPH 5HSULQWHG ZLWK SHUPLVVLRQ ZLWK PLQRU
FRUUHFWLRQVDQGHGLWRULDOFKDQJHV
$%675$&7
3ROOXWLRQ UHVXOWLQJ IURP LQFUHDVLQJ KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV LV WKUHDWHQLQJ/DNH9LFWRULDWKHODUJHVW
$IULFDQ ODNH DQG RI FUXFLDO VRFLRHFRQRPLF LPSRUWDQFH WR WKH QXWULWLRQ RI LWV ULSDULDQ
SRSXODWLRQ 7KLV VWXG\ HYDOXDWHV ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV LQ WKH 7DQ]DQLDQ SDUW RI WKH ODNH
V
FDWFKPHQW DUHD $ VHW RI PHWKRGRORJLFDO JXLGHOLQHV KDV EHHQ XVHG WR DVVHVV SROOXWLRQ IURP
LQGXVWULDO LQFOXGLQJ PLQLQJ DJULFXOWXUDO DQG GRPHVWLF DFWLYLWLHV 0HWKRGV DUH EDVHG RQ
FRQYHUVLRQIDFWRUVUHVXOWLQJIURPOLWHUDWXUHUHYLHZRIVLPLODUFDVHVWRHVWLPDWHSROOXWLRQORDGV
0RVW SROOXWLRQ LV RI RUJDQLF QDWXUH ZLWK DJULFXOWXUH DV WKH ODUJHVW FRQWULEXWRU RI QXWULHQWV
/DUJHVW SRLQW VRXUFH SROOXWLRQ LV RI GRPHVWLF ZDVWH ZKLOH LQGXVWULDO SROOXWLRQ LV OLPLWHG EXW
JURZLQJUDSLGO\/DFNRILQGXVWULDODQGGRPHVWLFZDVWHPDQDJHPHQWDQGODUJHVKRUWFRPLQJVLQ
ZDVWHWUHDWPHQWFDXVHORFDOQXLVDQFHDQGKHDOWKKD]DUGVWRWKHSRSXODWLRQLQDQGQHDUWKHXUEDQ
FHQWUHV %XNRED 0ZDQ]D DQG 0XVRPD +D]DUGRXV ZDVWHV IURP LQGXVWULHV DQG XVH RI
DJURFKHPLFDOV DQG DUWLILFLDO IHUWLOL]HUV DUH YHU\ UHVWULFWHG LQ WKH DUHD 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI
HQYLURQPHQWDO PRQLWRULQJ DQG PDQDJHPHQW DV ZHOO DV HGXFDWLRQDO HIIRUWV WRZDUGV PRUH
HQYLURQPHQWDODZDUHQHVVDUHUHFRPPHQGHG
,QWURGXFWLRQ
:LWKDVXUIDFHDUHDRINP/DNH9LFWRULDLVWKHWKLUGODUJHVWIUHVKZDWHUERG\LQWKH
ZRUOG 7KH ODNH DQG LWV HFRV\VWHP KDUERXU XQLTXH ELRORJLFDO UHVRXUFHV DQG DUH RI FUXFLDO
VRFLRHFRQRPLF LPSRUWDQFH WR LWV ULSDULDQ SRSXODWLRQ 7KH WKUHH VXUURXQGLQJ FRXQWULHV
7DQ]DQLD 8JDQGD DQG .HQ\D FRQWURO UHVSHFWLYHO\ DQG RI WKH ODNH DUHD DQG
PDNH XVH RI LWV UHVRXUFHV IRU ILVKHU\ IUHVKZDWHU DQG DYHQXHV RI WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ )LJXUH SDJHGLVSOD\V/DNH9LFWRULDDQGLWVFDWFKPHQWDUHD7KH7DQ]DQLDQSDUWRIWKHFDWFKPHQW
DUHDLVURXJKO\GHILQHGDVWKHUHJLRQV.DJHUD0ZDQ]DDQG0DUDLQWRWDONPRIODQG
DUHD
*URZLQJKXPDQLQWHUIHUHQFHKDVFDXVHGODUJHFKDQJHVLQWKHODNH
VHFRV\VWHPDQGFKHPLVWU\
LQWKHSDVWGHFDGHV%RRWVPDHWDO+HFN\+HFN\DQG%XJHQ\L7KUHDWVWR
WKH ODNH
V HFRV\VWHP LQFOXGH WKH UHGXFWLRQ RI ILVK VWRFNV WKURXJK RYHUILVKLQJ DQG WKH
LQWURGXFWLRQ RI H[RWLF ILVK VSHFLHV DFFRPSDQLHG E\ D GUDVWLF UHGXFWLRQ LQ HQGHPLF VSHFLHV
+DUULVRQ HW DO 5\DQ *ROGVPLWK HW DO *RSKHQ HW DO .DXIPDQ
:LWWHHWDODE)XUWKHUHXWURSKLFDWLRQDQGSROOXWLRQFDXVHGE\LQFUHDVLQJ
GRPHVWLFLQGXVWULDODQGDJULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHVDQGWUDQVSRUWKDYHUHVXOWHGLQWKHGHWHULRUDWLRQ
RIZDWHUTXDOLW\:RUOG%DQN81(3:RUOG%DQN81(3)$2&DODPDULHWDO
6FKHUHQ HW DO $OJDO EORRPV UHVXOWLQJ LQ PDVVLYH ILVK PRUWDOLW\ LQ WKH .HQ\DQ
SRUWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD2FKXPEDLOOXVWUDWHWKHVHWKUHDWV:RUVHQLQJKHDOWK
FRQGLWLRQV PRUH ZLGHVSUHDG ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV HJ ELOKDU]LDV DQG UHGXFHG EHQHILWV WR
ULSDULDQSHRSOHXVLQJWKHODNHDVDVRXUFHRIGULQNLQJZDWHURUIRUILVKLQJUHVXOW
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
2EMHFWLYH RI WKLV VWXG\ LV DQ LQYHQWRU\ RI SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV LQ WKH FDWFKPHQW DUHD RI /DNH
9LFWRULDLQ7DQ]DQLD5HVXOWVLQGLFDWHSROOXWLRQFRQWUROSULRULWLHVIRUWKH7DQ]DQLDQ0LQLVWU\RI
7RXULVP 1DWXUDO 5HVRXUFHV DQG (QYLURQPHQW 7KH VWXG\ FRYHUV OLTXLG ZDVWH ORDGV DQG
SRVVLEOH OHDNDJH IURP VROLG ZDVWHV DLU SROOXWLRQ LV VWLOO PLQLPXP LQ .DJHUD 0ZDQ]D DQG
0DUDUHJLRQV)LHOGVXUYH\VZHUHGRQHLQDQG
7KH PHWKRGRORJ\ GHYHORSHG GHILQHV SURFHGXUHV IRU HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH SULQFLSOH SROOXWLRQ
VRXUFHV²LQGXVWULDO DJULFXOWXUDO DQG GRPHVWLF DFWLYLWLHV²DSSO\LQJ SROOXWLRQ ORDG IDFWRUV WR
HVWLPDWHFRQWULEXWLRQVRIWKHUHVSHFWLYHVRXUFHV3ROOXWLRQIDFWRUVRULJLQDWHHLWKHUGLUHFWO\IURP
OLWHUDWXUH RU KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG DFFRUGLQJ WR GDWD LQ OLWHUDWXUH 7KH PDLQ UHVWULFWLRQ LQ
DFFXUDF\RIWKHPHWKRGLQYROYHVDQDYHUDJLQJRYHUSROOXWLRQGDWDIRUGLIIHUHQWVWDWHVRIVRFLDO
HFRQRPLF DQG WHFKQRORJLFDO GHYHORSPHQW LQIOXHQFLQJ WKH SROOXWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 7KH
SURFHGXUH KRZHYHU DOORZV UDSLG DVVHVVPHQWV RI ODUJH FDWFKPHQW DUHDV ZLWKRXW LQWHQVLYH
PRQLWRULQJSURJUDPV5HVXOWVDUHDVVXPHGWREHJRRGHQRXJKHVWLPDWLRQVIRUSULRULW\VHWWLQJLQ
HQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\
,QGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQ
0HWKRGRORJ\
:DVWH JHQHUDWLRQ E\ LQGXVWULDO HVWDEOLVKPHQW FDQ EH UHODWHG WR SURGXFWLRQ UDWHV DQG SURFHVV
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV$JHQHUDOIRUPXODIRUFDOFXODWLRQRIZDVWHORDGVIURPLQGXVWULHVLV
(TXDWLRQ
><HDUO\:D VWH/RDG@ ><HDUO\3URGXFWLRQ @[>3ROOXWLRQ)DFWRU@ LQZKLFKSROOXWLRQIDFWRUVUHODWHWRFHUWDLQSURFHVVFKDUDFWHULVWLFV:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQL]DWLRQ
DQG (FRQRPRSRXOXV UHSRUW SROOXWLRQ IDFWRUV IRU TXDQWLILFDWLRQ RI LQGXVWULDO
ZDVWHORDGVWKDWUHVXOWIURPH[WHQVLYHOLWHUDWXUHUHVHDUFK/LVWHGDUHWKRVHLQGXVWULDOEUDQFKHV
WKDWDUHH[SHFWHGWRFRQWULEXWHVLJQLILFDQWO\WRSROOXWLRQRIWKHHQYLURQPHQW)RUHDFKEUDQFK
SROOXWLRQIDFWRUVDUHLQGH[HGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHEDVLFSURFHVVFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
7DEOHSUHVHQWVWKHPDMRULQGXVWULDOEUDQFKHV!SHUVRQVLQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDLQFOXGLQJ
WKHLUUHVSHFWLYHSROOXWLRQIDFWRUVIRUOLTXLGZDVWHYROXPHDQGGD\ELRORJLFDOR[\JHQGHPDQG
%2'6LPLODULQGH[HVFDQEHVHWXSIRURWKHUHQYLURQPHQWDOSDUDPHWHUV+RZHYHUZDVWHLV
PDLQO\ RUJDQLF DV PRVW LQGXVWULDO DFWLYLWLHV LQYROYH WKH SURFHVVLQJ RI DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFWV
%2'ORDGVWKHUHIRUHDUHDUHSUHVHQWDWLYHSROOXWLRQLQGLFDWLRQ7KHODVWFROXPQLQ7DEOH
UHSUHVHQWVDQDYHUDJH%2'FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQXQWUHDWHGZDVWHZDWHUFKDUDFWHULVLQJXQWUHDWHG
HIIOXHQWVWUHDPV3ROOXWLRQIDFWRUVIRUFRIIHHSURFHVVLQJDUHQRWLQFOXGHGDVWKHSURFHVVHVXVHG
LQ WKH DUHD KDUGO\ LQYROYH ZDVWH ZDWHU SURGXFWLRQ )XUWKHUPRUH HOHFWULF OLJKW SRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQ E\ 7$1(6&2 RFFXUV E\ GLHVHO JHQHUDWRUV&RQVHTXHQWO\OLTXLGZDVWHLVPDLQO\
IURPRLOVSLOOVRIZKLFKTXDQWLILFDWLRQLVGLIILFXOW
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH
0DMRULQGXVWULDOEUDQFKHVLQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHD%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFVEWKHLU
UHVSHFWLYHSROOXWLRQIDFWRUVIRUZDVWHZDWHUJHQHUDWLRQDQG%2'SHUWRQQHRISURGXFWDQG%2'
FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQXQWUHDWHGHIIOXHQW,6,&UHSUHVHQWVWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUG,QGXVWULDO
&ODVVLILFDWLRQFRGH9DOXHVEHWZHHQEUDFNHWVUHSUHVHQWWKHQXPEHURIHVWDEOLVKPHQWVLQWKHDUHD
,6,&
,QGXVWU\
FRGH
3URFHVVLQJRIILVK
9HJHWDEOHRLOUHILQLQJ
&DQHVXJDUIDFWRULHV
0DQXIDFWXUHRIFRIIHH
6RIWGULQNVLQGXVWULHV
0DQXIDFWXUHRIFRWWRQ
/HDWKHUWDQQHULHVFKURPH
6RDSDQGFOHDQLQJSUHSDUDWLRQV
(OHFWULFOLJKWDQGSRZHU
3ROOXWLRQIDFWRUV
9ROXPH>P W@
%2'>NJW@
&RQFHQWUDWLRQ
%2'>JP@
(YDOXDWLRQ RI LQGXVWULDO ORFDWLRQV SURFHVV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG ZDVWH GXPSLQJ DQG WUHDWPHQW
QRZ DOORZV DQ HVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH TXDQWLW\ DQG TXDOLW\ RI LQGXVWULDO SROOXWLRQ ORDGV WR
ZDWHUFRXUVHV ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ LQGXVWULDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQ WKH FDWFKPHQW DUHD ZDV JDWKHUHG
IURPFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWDORIILFHVLQ'DUHV6DODDPUHJLRQDORIILFHVLQ%XNRED0ZDQ]DDQG
0XVRPDFHQWUDODQGUHJLRQDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGODERUDWRULHVIURPVHOHFWHGVLWHYLVLWVDQGIURP
$583$WNLQV,QWHUQDWLRQDO/WG%ULWLVK&RWWRQ*URZLQJ$VVRFLDWLRQ+|MOXQGHWDO
DE-RQHV0DWRZR0DML8EXQJRDQG0SHQGD]RHHWDO
7KH ODWWHU IRXU UHSRUW GDWD RQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI LQGXVWULDO HIIOXHQW VWUHDPV +RZHYHU
VDPSOHVKDYHEHHQWDNHQRQFHDQGDWRQHVSHFLILFSRLQWLQDVWUHDPRQO\/DUJHIOXFWXDWLRQVLQ
HIIOXHQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFVERWKLQWLPHDQGVSDFHDUHH[SHFWHGDQGFRPSDULVRQZLWKUHVXOWVRI
WKLVUHSRUWLVWKHUHIRUHKDPSHUHGE\WKHLQDGHTXDWHVDPSOLQJSURFHGXUHV
&KDUDFWHULVWLFV
0RVW RI WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQWV LQ 7DEOH DUH ORFDWHG LQ RU QHDU WKH ODUJH XUEDQ FHQWUHV²
0ZDQ]D0XVRPDDQG%XNRED²RQWKHODNHVKRUHRUERUGHULQJZDWHUFRXUVHVQHDUE\WKHODNH
0RVWLQGXVWULDOHVWDEOLVKPHQWVGDWHIURP\HDUVDJRRUPRUHFRQVHTXHQWO\XVLQJREVROHWH
WHFKQRORJ\ DQG PDFKLQHU\ $SDUW IURP WKH LQGXVWULHV LQ 7DEOH JROG PLQLQJ LV D PDMRU
DFWLYLW\LQWKHDUHDFRQFHQWUDWHGLQ*HLWDDQG0XVRPDJROGILHOGV
(QYLURQPHQWDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV LQ LQGXVWULHV VXFK DV JRRG KRXVHNHHSLQJ ZDVWH FRQWURO DQG
WUHDWPHQWDUHJLYHQOLWWOHDWWHQWLRQ:DVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVH[LVWRQO\LQDPLQRULW\RI
FDVHV0ZDWH[0ZDQ]D7DQQHULHV/WGDQG1\DQ]D%RWWOLQJ&R/WGLQ0ZDQ]D0XWH[LQ
0XVRPDDUHRIWHQWRRVPDOODQGRSHUDWLQJEDGO\)RUH[DPSOH0XWH[
VWUHDWPHQWHIILFLHQF\
LV KDUGO\ UHGXFWLRQ RI %2' 0SHQGD]RH HW DO :DVWH ZDWHU FRQVHTXHQWO\ LV
GLVFKDUJHG LQWR ZDWHUFRXUVHV ZLWKRXW VXIILFLHQW WUHDWPHQW )XUWKHUPRUH VROLG ZDVWH LV RIWHQ
GXPSHG RQ WKH LQGXVWULDO VLWH LWVHOI 2QO\ SDUW RIWKHZDVWHVXFKDVIURPILVKSURFHVVLQJLV
FROOHFWHGFHQWUDOO\,QERWKFDVHVGXPSLQJRFFXUVQHDUE\WKHODNHLQGXFLQJUXQRIIDQGOHDNDJH
WRZDWHUFRXUVHV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
3ROOXWLRQ
7DEOHSUHVHQWVWKHHVWLPDWHGSROOXWLRQORDGVRIWKHVHOHFWHGLQGXVWULDOHVWDEOLVKPHQWV7KH
PDLQ SROOXWLQJ LQGXVWULHV DUH YHJHWDEOH RLO WH[WLOH DQG VRDS DQG FOHDQLQJ SUHSDUDWLRQV
LQGXVWULHV 7KH 7DQ]DQLDQ HIIOXHQW VWDQGDUG IRU GLUHFW GLVFKDUJH LV JP RI %2'
*RYHUQPHQW 1RWLFH 1R :LWKRXW DGHTXDWH WUHDWPHQW HIIOXHQW FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DV
JLYHQLQWKHODVWFROXPQLQ7DEOHDUHH[SHFWHGFRQVHTXHQWO\H[FHHGLQJWKHVWDQGDUGE\IDU
+D]DUGRXV ZDVWH LV UHVWULFWHG WR FKURPLXP IURP WKH OHDWKHU WDQQLQJ SURFHVV RI 0ZDQ]D
7DQQHULHV/WG7KHWRWDOORDGLVHVWLPDWHGDWNJ\DVVXPLQJDQDYHUDJHZDVWHORDGRI
NJ FKURPLXP SHU NJ RI SURGXFW (FRQRPRSRXOXV :RUOG +HDOWK 2UJDQL]DWLRQ
• 7DEOH
(VWLPDWHGSROOXWLRQORDGVRIVHOHFWHGLQGXVWULDOHVWDEOLVKPHQWV
,6,&
&RGH
,QGXVWULDOHVWDEOLVKPHQW
0ZDQ]D
0DUD
.DJHUD
0ZDWH[
0ZDQ]D7DQQHULHV/WG
/DNH6RDS,QGXVWULHV/WG
92,/
1HZ(UD
1\DQ]D%RWWOLQJ&R/WG
9LFILVK/WG
0XWH[
0XJDQJR2LO0LOO
.LEDUD2LO0LOO
)LVK3DFN
.DJHUD6XJDU/WG
:HVW/DNH%RWWOHUV/WG
7RWDO
3URGXFWLRQ
>W\@
9ROXPH
>P\@
%2'
>W\@
2LODQGJUHDVHSROOXWLRQIURPROGDQGREVROHWHPDFKLQHU\DQGWUDQVSRUWDWLRQHTXLSPHQWFDQEH
VXEVWDQWLDO ,Q RQO\ IHZ FDVHV RLO ILOWHUV KDYH EHHQ LQVWDOOHG 0RVW ZDVWH RLOV DQG JUHDVH DUH
GLVSRVHGRIZLWKZDVWHZDWHUDVFRXQWVIRUZDVWHRLOIURPWKHPDQ\JDUDJHV$QQXDOO\
WRQQHVRIOXEULFDQWRLODQGWRQQHVRIJUHDVHDUHVROGLQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDLQGLFDWLQJWKH
H[WHQWRIWKLVZDVWHORDG
*ROGPLQLQJLVDVRXUFHRIPHUFXU\SROOXWLRQ$FFRUGLQJWRWKH%DQNRI7DQ]DQLDWKHEDQN
SURYLGHVDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIWKHDPRXQWRIPHUFXU\XVHGLQWKHDUHD7KHWRWDOFDQWKHUHIRUH
EHHVWLPDWHGDWNJDQQXDOO\9LDVSLOODJHDQGHYDSRUDWLRQIROORZHGE\SUHFLSLWDWLRQWKLV
DPRXQWRIPHUFXU\HQWHUVWKHHQYLURQPHQW
&KDSWHU
'RPHVWLFSROOXWLRQ
0HWKRGRORJ\
6LPLODUWRLQGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQ(FRQRPRSRXOXVDQG:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQL]DWLRQ
KDYH GHILQHG SROOXWLRQ IDFWRUV IRU GRPHVWLF SROOXWLRQ 7DEOH SUHVHQWV IDFWRUV IRU
LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI GRPHVWLF SROOXWLRQ GLVWLQJXLVKLQJ EHWZHHQ VHZHUHG DQG QRQVHZHUHG
SRSXODWLRQ3ROOXWLRQORDGVFDQEHHVWLPDWHGE\DSSO\LQJ
(TXDWLRQ
><HDUO\:D VWH/RDG@ >3RSXODWLR Q1XPEHU@[>3ROOXWLRQ)DFWRU@ (YDOXDWLRQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDOORZVDQHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHGRPHVWLFSROOXWLRQORDG
WR ZDWHUFRXUVHV 3RSXODWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ZHUH HYDOXDWHG XVLQJ WKH SRSXODWLRQ FHQVXV
IRU 7DQ]DQLD %XUHDX RI 6WDWLVWLFV DQG H[WUDSRODWLQJ ILJXUHV WR ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ
VDQLWDU\ IDFLOLWLHV ZDV JDWKHUHG IURP 0DWRZR UHJLRQDO JRYHUQPHQW DQG ZDWHU
ODERUDWRULHVPDML
V
• 7DEOH
3ROOXWLRQORDGIDFWRUVIRUGRPHVWLFZDVWHSURGXFWLRQ1DQG3UHSUHVHQWQLWURJHQDQG
SKRVSKRURXVFRPSRXQGVUHVSHFWLYHO\
6DQLWDWLRQ
9ROXPH
>PSHUVÂ\@
6HZHUHG
8QVHZHUHG
%2'
>NJSHUVÂ\@
1
>NJSHUVÂ\@
3
>NJSHUVÂ\@
6ROLGZDVWH
>WSHUVÂG@
&KDUDFWHULVWLFV
7DEOH SUHVHQWV SRSXODWLRQ VWDWLVWLFV IRU 0ZDQ]D 0DUD DQG .DJHUD UHJLRQV $ VHZDJH
V\VWHP LV SUHVHQW LQ 0ZDQ]D PXQLFLSDOLW\ RQO\ VHUYLQJ RI WKH XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQ 7KH
ZDWHUWUHDWPHQWV\VWHPFRQQHFWHGKDVQRWEHHQRSHUDWLYHIRU\HDUVKRZHYHU'XHWRODFNRI
DGHTXDWHPDVWHUSODQVLQDOOPXQLFLSDOLWLHVKRXVHVDUHVFDWWHUHGDQGLQGXVWULDODUHDVDUHPL[HG
ZLWKUHVLGHQWLDODUHDV&RQVHTXHQWO\FRQWURORYHUVDQLWDU\IDFLOLWLHVLVGLVFRXUDJHG/HVVWKDQ
RIDOOZDVWHIURPVHSWLFWDQNVLVFROOHFWHGOHDYLQJWKHPDLQSDUWXQFRQWUROOHG'XPSLQJ
RFFXUVQRWIDUIURPWKHODNHNPLQ0ZDQ]DLQGXFLQJVXEVWDQWLDOUXQRIIWRZDWHUFRXUVHV
6ROLGZDVWHLVGXPSHGRQZDVWHVLWHVDWNPIURPWKHODNHVKRUH6XEVWDQWLDOOHDNDJHWR
ZDWHUFRXUVHVPD\RFFXUDVZDVWHVDUHFUXGHO\WKURZQDQGFRQWUROODFNV
• 7DEOH
3RSXODWLRQVWDWLVWLFVIRU.DJHUD0ZDQ]DDQG0DUDUHJLRQVIRU
6WDWLVWLFDOSDUDPHWHU
0ZDQ]D
0DUD
.DJHUD
7RWDOSRSXODWLRQ
3RSXODWLRQJURZWK
8UEDQ
5XUDO
0L[HG
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
7KHUH LV D ODUJH GLIIHUHQFH LQ XUEDQ DQG UXUDO SROOXWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 8UEDQ SRSXODWLRQ LV
ODUJHO\ORFDWHGLQWKHWKUHHXUEDQFHQWUHV%XNRED0ZDQ]DDQG0XVRPDRQWKHODNHVKRUH$V
DGHTXDWHHQYLURQPHQWDOPDQDJHPHQWODFNVOLTXLGZDVWHDQGSDUWRIWKHVROLGZDVWHHQGXSLQ
ZDWHUFRXUVHVYLDGLVFKDUJHRIVHZHUDJHUXQRIIGUDLQDJHDQGRWKHUZD\V5XUDOSRSXODWLRQRQ
WKHRWKHUKDQGLVVFDWWHUHGRYHUDYDVWDUHDUHDFKLQJXSWRNPIURPWKHODNH2QO\DVPDOO
IUDFWLRQ RI WKHLU ZDVWH UHDFKHV ZDWHUFRXUVHV YLD UXQRII DQG WKH PDQ\ VHDVRQDO DQG QRQ
VHDVRQDOULYHUV7KLVVWXG\WKHUHIRUHIXUWKHURQO\UHJDUGVXUEDQGRPHVWLFSROOXWLRQ
3ROOXWLRQ
7DEOH GLVSOD\V WKH HVWLPDWHG XUEDQ SROOXWLRQ ORDG 7KH UHVXOWV LQGLFDWH VXEVWDQWLDO
GLVFKDUJHV RI XQWUHDWHG RUJDQLF ZDVWH /RFDO QXLVDQFH EDG VPHOO FRORXU KLJKO\ YHJHWDWHG
ZDWHUHWFDQGZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHVVXFKDVELOKDU]LDVUHVXOW7KHSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLQWKH
DUHD DQQXDOO\ LQGXFHV D UDSLG LQFUHDVH LQ GRPHVWLF ZDVWH ORDG DFWXDOO\ GRXEOLQJ
DSSUR[LPDWHO\HYHU\\HDUV
• 7DEOH
(VWLPDWHGXUEDQGRPHVWLFSROOXWLRQORDGVIRU.DJHUD0ZDQ]DDQG0DUDUHJLRQVLQ
5HJLRQ
9ROXPH
>P\@
%2'
>W\@
1
>W\@
3
>W\@
6ROLGZDVWH
>W\@
0ZDQ]D
0DUD
.DJHUD
7RWDO
$JULFXOWXUDOSROOXWLRQ
7ZRSRWHQWLDOVRXUFHVRIDJULFXOWXUDOSROOXWLRQDUHLGHQWLILHG2UJDQLFDQGDUWLILFLDOIHUWLOL]HUV
XVH LQYROYHV OHDFKLQJ RI QXWULHQWV WR ZDWHUFRXUVHV DQG VXEVHTXHQWO\ D WKUHDW IRU
HXWURSKLFDWLRQ RI ZDWHUFRXUVHV 7R[LF EUHDNGRZQ SURGXFWV RI DJURFKHPLFDOV SHVWLFLGHV
KHUELFLGHVDQGIXQJLFLGHVXVHGIRUFURSSURWHFWLRQDQGDVDGLVLQIHFWDQWIRUDQLPDOVUHDFKWKH
DTXDWLF HQYLURQPHQW YLD UXQRII ZDWHU DQG ERXQG WR VRLO VHGLPHQW DQG DLU SDUWLFOHV
$VVHVVPHQWPHWKRGVIRUERWKFDWHJRULHVDUHVHWXSEHORZ
0HWKRGRORJ\
7KHIUDFWLRQRIQXWULHQWVIURPIHUWLOL]HUVUXQQLQJRIIDQGOHDFKLQJWRZDWHUFRXUVHVLVDYHUDJHG
DW IRU SKRVSKRURXV DQG IRU QLWURJHQ FRPSRXQGV 0LQLVWU\ RI +HDOWK DQG
(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ2UORYDDQG<DUDVKHQNR6DQWVFKLDQG6FKLQGOHU
8VHRIDUWLILFLDOIHUWLOL]HUVIROORZVIURPIHUWLOL]HUGLVWULEXWLRQILJXUHVIRUWKHUHJLRQ$UWLILFLDO
IHUWLOL]HUV DUH PDLQO\ DSSOLHG EHIRUH RU LQ WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQV ZKLFK LV DOVR WKH PDLQ FURS
JURZLQJ VHDVRQ 7KHUHIRUH WKH WRWDO DPRXQW DSSOLHG LV VXEMHFW WR ORVV WR ZDWHUFRXUVHV 7KH
DPRXQW RI QXWULHQWV LQ PDQXUH LV HVWLPDWHG XVLQJ 7DEOH &DOOHO\ HW DO 9LJKL DQG
&KLDQGDQL$VOHDFKLQJDQGUXQRIIRFFXUVGXULQJUDLQ\VHDVRQVRQO\DSSUR[LPDWHO\
PRQWKVSHU\HDUWKHQDWXUDOIHUWLOL]HUORDGLVHVWLPDWHGDWRIWKHWRWDODPRXQWRIPDQXUH
7KHUHPDLQLQJLVDVVXPHGWREHODUJHO\WDNHQXSLQWRQXWULHQWF\FOHV
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH
1XWULHQWDPRXQWVLQPDQXUHIURPYDULRXVDQLPDOVSHU\HDU
3DUDPHWHU
3NJ\
1NJ\
&DWWOH
*RDWV
6KHHS
&KLFNHQ
:DWHUSROOXWLRQE\DJURFKHPLFDOVLVDSSURDFKHGE\SUHGLFWLRQRIFXPXODWLYHORDGVDQGORFDO
DQGDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIDJURFKHPLFDOVLQZDWHUFRXUVHV$QDYHUDJHORVVWRZDWHUFRXUVHV
RI LV DVVXPHG WR FDOFXODWH WKH FXPXODWLYH SROOXWLRQ ORDG IURP UHJLRQDO DJURFKHPLFDO
GLVWULEXWLRQ ILJXUHV +DLWK 2UORYD DQG <DUDVKHQNR :DXFKRSH DQG /HRQDUG
/RFDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQV VXFFHHG IURP WKH FXPXODWLYH ORDG SHU XQLW DUHD ODQG RQ ZKLFK
DJURFKHPLFDOVDUHDSSOLHGDQGWKHDPRXQWRIUDLQIDOOZDWHUUXQQLQJRIIWKHVDPHDUHDRIODQG
7KH ODWWHU LV HVWLPDWHG DW RI WKH DYHUDJH UDLQIDOO 0LQLVWU\ RI +HDOWK DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO
3URWHFWLRQ PP PXOWLSOLHG E\ WKH VSHFLILHG DUHD $Q DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ
UXQRIIZDWHUIROORZVVLPLODUO\IURPWKHFXPXODWLYHORDGDQGWKHUDLQIDOORQWKHWRWDOFDWFKPHQW
DUHD $JURFKHPLFDOV DUH FODVVLILHG LQ JURXSV DV XVHG LQ WKH 7DQ]DQLDQ HIIOXHQW VWDQGDUGV
*RYHUQPHQW 1RWLFH 1R RUJDQRFKORULQH FKHPLFDOV 2&3 DJURFKHPLFDOV
FRQWDLQLQJFRSSHU&8DQGRWKHUDJURFKHPLFDOV2$
'LVWULEXWLRQ ILJXUHV IRU DUWLILFLDO IHUWLOL]HUV ZHUH WDNHQ IURP %XUHDX RI 6WDWLVWLFV D
0DWRZR0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUHDQG/LYHVWRFN'HYHORSPHQWDQGFHQWUDODQG
UHJLRQDO RIILFHV RI WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI $JULFXOWXUH DQG WKH UHJLRQDO )$2 IHUWLOL]HU SURMHFWV
/LYHVWRFN ILJXUHV ZHUH WDNHQ IURP .,/,02)$2 )HUWLOL]HU 3URJUDPPH DQG
5HJLRQDO$JULFXOWXUDO2IILFH%XNRED,QIRUPDWLRQRQDJURFKHPLFDOXVHZDVWDNHQIURP
0DWRZRWKH3ODQW3URWHFWLRQ8QLWLQ'DUHV6DODDPDQGFHQWUDODQGUHJLRQDORIILFHVRI
WKH0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUHWKH7DQ]DQLD&RWWRQ0DUNHWLQJ%RDUG7&0%DQGWKH5HJLRQDO
&RRSHUDWLYH8QLRQV
&KDUDFWHULVWLFV
7DEOH SURYLGHV GDWD RQ DUWLILFLDO IHUWLOL]HU GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG OLYHVWRFN LQ WKH UHJLRQ
'LVWULEXWLRQRIDJURFKHPLFDOVLVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH6LQFHUHFHQWFRPPHUFLDOL]DWLRQRI
IHUWLOL]HUDQGDJURFKHPLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQKDVLQFUHDVHGSULFHVWKHPDLQO\VPDOOVFDOHIDUPHUVLQ
WKH FDWFKPHQW DUHD KDYH VWURQJO\ UHVWULFWHG WKHLU XVH 7KLV VKRZV RII LQ WKH ORZ GLVWULEXWLRQ
ILJXUHVIRUWKHSDVWIHZ\HDUV$SSUR[LPDWHO\RIDOODJURFKHPLFDOVLVXVHGIRUFRWWRQDQG
FRIIHHFURSSURWHFWLRQ$VDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIFRWWRQDQGFRIIHHIDUPHUVXVHDJURFKHPLFDOV
WKH WRWDO DJULFXOWXUDO DUHD XQGHU VXEMHFW LV RI WKH FRWWRQ DQG FRIIHH FURS JURZLQJ DUHD
7DEOH ,W VKRXOG EH QRWHG WKDW WKH 5REXVWD W\SH RI FRIIHH WKH PDLQ FURS LQ .DJHUD
UHTXLUHVOLWWOHFURSSURWHFWLRQDQGFRQVHTXHQWO\DJURFKHPLFDOXVHLQ.DJHUDLVYHU\UHVWULFWHG
$OVRSURGXFWLRQRIFRWWRQDQGVXEVHTXHQWDJURFKHPLFDOXVHLVGHFOLQLQJEHFDXVHPDUNHWLQJ
DVVRFLDWLRQVIDLOHGWRSD\RIIIDUPHUVIRUVHYHUDO\HDUVDOUHDG\
'LVLQIHFWDQWV IRU OLYHVWRFN W\SLFDOO\2&3
VDUHSUHVHQWHGVHSDUDWHO\$SSUR[LPDWHO\LV
DSSOLHGYLDFDWWOHGLSVRIWHQORFDWHGQHDUZDWHUFRXUVHVDVODUJHDPRXQWVRIZDWHUDUHQHHGHGWR
ILOO WKH GLSV 'XULQJ DQQXDO UHILOOLQJ PRVW GLVLQIHFWDQW LV ORVW WR WKHVH ZDWHUFRXUVHV 7\SLFDO
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQFDWWOHGLSVFRQWHQWVDUHJO2&37KHUHPDLQLQJLVDSSOLHGE\
VSUD\LQJIRUZKLFKDQDORJRXVWRRWKHUDJURFKHPLFDOVDORVVLVEHDVVXPHG
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
• 7DEOH
/LYHVWRFNDQGDUWLILFLDOIHUWLOL]HUFKDUDFWHULVWLFVIRU.DJHUD0ZDQ]DDQG0DUDUHJLRQV
LQ763&D+32+2FRQWDLQVSKRVSKRURXV&$11+12&D&26$
1+62DQG85($&21+FRQWDLQDQGQLWURJHQUHVSHFWLYHO\
5HJLRQ
&DWWOH
0ZDQ]D
0DUD
.DJHUD
/LYHVWRFN>KG@
*RDWV
6KHHS &KLFNHQ
$UWLILFLDOIHUWLOL]HU>W\@
763
&$1
6$
85($
• 7DEOH
$JURFKHPLFDOXVHLQ0ZDQ]D0DUDDQG.DJHUDUHJLRQVLQDFUHSUHVHQWV
DFWLYHFRPSRQHQW2&3&8DQG2$UHSUHVHQWRUJDQRFKORULQHFKHPLFDOVDJURFKHPLFDOV
FRQWDLQLQJFRSSHUDQGRWKHUDJURFKHPLFDOVUHVSHFWLYHO\
8VH
$UHD>KD@
2&3>WDF\@
&8>WDF\@
2$>WDF\@
&RWWRQ
&RIIHH
'LVLQIHFWDQW
7RWDO
$KD]DUGDVVHVVPHQWIRUDJURFKHPLFDOVLVQRWWKHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVUHSRUW+RZHYHULWVKRXOG
EHQRWHGWKDWVRPHSHVWLFLGHVH[WHQVLYHO\XVHGLQ7DQ]DQLDHJWKLRGDQGLHOGULQKDYHEHHQ
IRUELGGHQLQGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVEHFDXVHRIWKHLUSRWHQWLDOGDQJHU0RVWRIWKHVHSHVWLFLGHV
KDYHKLJKKDOIOLYHVDQGFRQVHTXHQWO\DFFXPXODWHLQWKHHQYLURQPHQW$OVRFDVHVKDYHEHHQ
UHSRUWHGZKHUHDJURFKHPLFDOVZHUHXVHGLQVPDOOVFDOHILVKLQJLQ/DNH9LFWRULD$QHDV\FDWFK
LV DFKLHYHG E\ GXPSLQJ SHVWLFLGHV LQ WKH ZDWHU WR SDUDO\VH WKH ILVK $SDUW IURP SROOXWLRQ
DVSHFWVWKHVHSUDFWLFHVFDXVHFRQVLGHUDEOHKD]DUGVWRFRQVXPHUV
3ROOXWLRQ
7DEOH GHSLFWV QXWULHQW ORDGV WR ZDWHUFRXUVHV IURP DUWLILFLDO IHUWLOL]HUV DQG PDQXUH
&RQWULEXWLRQV IURP PDQXUH H[FHHG WKRVH RI DUWLILFLDO IHUWLOL]HUV E\ IDU $OVR RYHUDOO QXWULHQW
ORDGVIURPDJULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHVDUHYHU\ODUJHDVDUHVXOWRIH[WHQVLYHOLYHVWRFNDFWLYLWLHVLQ
WKHUHJLRQ
• 7DEOH (VWLPDWHGQXWULHQWORDGVWRZDWHUFRXUVHVIURPPDQXUHDQGDUWLILFLDOIHUWLOL]HULQ
5HJLRQ
0DQXUH
1>W\@
0ZDQ]D 0DUD
.DJHUD
7RWDO
$UWLILFLDOIHUWLOL]HU
3>W\@
1>W\@
3>W\@
&KDSWHU
7DEOHVXPPDUL]HVHVWLPDWHGDJURFKHPLFDOORDGVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQV/RFDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
VOLJKWO\H[FHHGWKH7DQ]DQLDQVWDQGDUGVIRULQGLUHFWGLVFKDUJHRI2&3
VPJOKRZHYHU
GRQRWH[FHHGWKHOLPLWVIRU&8
VPJODQG2$PJO$YHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQ
ZDWHUFRXUVHVDUHZHOOEHORZWKH7DQ]DQLDQGULQNLQJZDWHUVWDQGDUGV2&3PJO&8
PJO2$PJO&RQFOXGLQJFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIDJURFKHPLFDOVDUHORZDSDUWIURP
SRVVLEO\GLUHFWO\DIWHUDSSOLFDWLRQDQGGXULQJWKHDFWXDOUXQRIIHYHQWVUDLQIDOO$OVRGXULQJ
GLVFKDUJH DQG UHILOOLQJ RI FDWWOH GLS FRQWHQWV FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI DJURFKHPLFDOV LQ DGMDFHQW
ZDWHUFRXUVHV PD\ ULVH WR KD]DUGRXV OHYHOV /RFDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI GLVLQIHFWDQWV FDQ QRW EH
HVWLPDWHGDVVSUD\LQJLVQRWFRQILQHGWRFHUWDLQDUHDV
• 7DEOH (VWLPDWHGDJURFKHPLFDOORDGVWRDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQZDWHUFRXUVHVIRU
3DUDPHWHU
&XPXODWLYHORDG>NJDF\@
/RFDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQ>PJO@
$YHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQ>PJO@
2&3
&8
2$
'LVLQIHFWDQWV
&RQFOXVLRQ
,QGXVWULDO GRPHVWLF DQG DJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLWLHV FDXVLQJ HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ RI
ZDWHUFRXUVHV LQ WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD FDWFKPHQW DUHD LQ 7DQ]DQLD KDYH EHHQ HYDOXDWHG $Q
DVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\KDVEHHQXVHGEDVHGRQSROOXWLRQORDGIDFWRUVIRUWKHFDOFXODWLRQRI
SROOXWLRQORDGVIURPWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRISROOXWLRQVRXUFHV7KHPHWKRGRORJ\SURYLGHVURXJK
HVWLPDWLRQVRISROOXWLRQORDGVZLWKRXWQHHGIRUH[WHQVLYHPRQLWRULQJSURJUDPV
/DUJHVW WKUHDW LV WKH RUJDQLF SROOXWLRQ ORDG WR ZDWHUFRXUVHV )LJXUH GHSLFWV WKH UHODWLYH
FRQWULEXWLRQV RI WKH YDULRXV SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV WR %2' QLWURJHQ DQG SKRVSKRURXV ORDGLQJ
$JULFXOWXUH LV WKH ODUJHVW VRXUFH RI QXWULHQWV RULJLQDWLQJ PDLQO\ IURP PDQXUH 3RLQW VRXUFH
ORDGLQJ IURP LQGXVWULDO DQG GRPHVWLF VRXUFHV FDXVHV ORFDOO\ KLJK %2' DQG QXWULHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVZKLFKLQGXFHZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHVDQGQXLVDQFHWRULSDULDQSRSXODWLRQ
A g ric ultura l
D o m e s tic
Ind us tria l
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0
10000 20000 30000
0
1000
2000
• )LJXUH 2YHUYLHZRI%2'1DQG3ORDGVIURPLQGXVWULDOGRPHVWLFDQGDJULFXOWXUDOVRXUFHV
LQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHD
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
+D]DUGRXV ZDVWH H[LVWV DV FKURPLXP NJ\ IURP WKH OHDWKHU WDQQLQJ LQGXVWU\ DQG
PHUFXU\ NJ\ IURP JROG PLQLQJ 7KH ODUJH DPRXQWV FDXVH FRQFHUQ IRU ELR
DFFXPXODWLRQ DQG ORQJWHUP KHDOWK KD]DUGV WR ULSDULDQ SRSXODWLRQ $JURFKHPLFDO XVH LQ WKH
UHJLRQ LV UHVWULFWHG EHFDXVH FRPPHUFLDOLVDWLRQ RI WKHLU GLVWULEXWLRQ KDV LQGXFHG KLJK SULFHV
&RQVHTXHQWO\FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHHQYLURQPHQWGRQRWFDXVHDQ\FRQFHUQ
:DVWH PDQDJHPHQW LV ODFNLQJ VHULRXV DWWHQWLRQ :DVWH WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV IRU LQGXVWULHV DUH
HLWKHU DEVHQW RU EDGO\ RSHUDWLQJ $ ZDVWH ZDWHU WUHDWPHQW V\VWHP RQO\ H[LVWV LQ 0ZDQ]D
KRZHYHU KDV QRW EHHQ RSHUDWLYH IRU \HDUV 0RVW RI WKH ZDVWH SURGXFHG E\ LQGXVWULHV DQG
SRSXODWLRQ LQ 0ZDQ]D 0XVRPD DQG .DJHUD WKHUHIRUH HQGV XS LQ /DNH 9LFWRULDRUDGMDFHQW
ZDWHUFRXUVHV&ROOHFWLRQRIVROLGZDVWHDQGZDVWHIURPVHSWLFWDQNVRFFXUVRQO\SDUWO\7KRVH
ZDVWHVFROOHFWHGHQGXSRQEDGO\FRQWUROOHGGXPSVIURPZKLFKOHDFKLQJDQGUXQRIIPD\RFFXU
5HFRPPHQGDWLRQV
(QYLURQPHQWDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQVLQUHJLRQDOGHYHORSPHQWDUHODFNLQJERWKVHULRXVDWWHQWLRQDQG
FRQWURO IRUFH $ NH\ LVVXH LV WKDW LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHPV DQG FRQGLWLRQ LV
ODFNLQJ 6WXGLHV DV WKLV UHSRUW DUH XVHIXO WRROV IRU ILUVW DVVHVVPHQWV RI SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV 2Q
EDVLV RI VXFK UHVXOWVDV\VWHPRIHQYLURQPHQWDOPRQLWRULQJDVVHVVPHQWDQGGDWDDFTXLVLWLRQ
VKRXOG IXUWKHU EH EXLOG WR GHILQH DQG VWUHQJWKHQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SROLF\ DQG OHJLVODWLRQ 7KH
VHWXS VKRXOG LQFOXGH D 1DWLRQDO (QYLURQPHQWDO ,QIRUPDWLRQ 6\VWHP DQG D FRRUGLQDWLRQ DQG
LQWHJUDWLRQUROHVKRXOGOLHZLWKWKH0LQLVWU\RI7RXULVP1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHVDQG(QYLURQPHQW
6HFWRUDO PLQLVWULHV DQG GLVWULFW JRYHUQPHQW DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV VKRXOG KRZHYHU KDYH SULPH
UHVSRQVLELOLWLHVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOLVVXHVXQGHUWKHLUFRQWURO
'HYHORSPHQW RI SROLF\ LQVWUXPHQWV VXFK DV (QYLURQPHQWDO /HJLVODWLRQ (QYLURQPHQWDO
,QGLFDWRUVDQG6WDQGDUGV(QYLURQPHQWDO,PSDFW$VVHVVPHQWDQG(FRQRPLF,QVWUXPHQWVWKH
SROOXWHUSD\VSULQFLSOHIRUWKH7DQ]DQLDQVLWXDWLRQKDVKLJKSULRULW\)XUWKHUSUREOHPVVXFK
DVGHILQHGE\WKLVVWXG\FDQSDUWO\EHVROYHGE\LPSURYLQJHQYLURQPHQWDODZDUHQHVVERWKDW
JRYHUQPHQWDO OHYHO DQG DPRQJ WKH SRSXODWLRQ ([DPSOHV H[LVW ,Q 0XVRPD LQGXVWULDO
HVWDEOLVKPHQWVZHUHIRUFHGWREXLOGZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVDVDUHVXOWRIFRPSODLQWV
IURPQHLJKERXULQJSRSXODWLRQRQEDGVPHOODQGGLUW\ZDWHU
$ ELJ WDVN UHPDLQV IRU ERWK FHQWUDO DQG UHJLRQDO SROLF\ PDNHUV WR GHYHORS WKRURXJK
HQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\DQGOHJLVODWLRQDVZHOODVPHDQVIRUFRQWUROPHDVXUHVDQGVWLPXODWLRQRI
HQYLURQPHQWDODZDUHQHVV6WUDWHJLHVKDYHDOUHDG\EHHQGHILQHGLQWKH1DWLRQDO(QYLURQPHQWDO
$FWLRQ3ODQIRU7DQ]DQLD*RYHUQPHQWRI7DQ]DQLD5HVXOWVIURPWKLVVWXG\VWUHVVVRPH
SULRULWLHV
&KDSWHU
(VWLPDWLRQRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQLQ/DNH9LFWRULD$SSOLFDWLRQDQGHODERUDWLRQRI
WKH5DSLG$VVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\
3$ 6FKHUHQ +$ =DQWLQJ $0 /HPPHQV -RXUQDO RI (QYLURQPHQWDO 0DQDJHPHQW
YROXPH5HSULQWHGZLWKSHUPLVVLRQZLWKPLQRUHGLWRULDOFKDQJHV
$%675$&7
3ROOXWLRQ UHVXOWLQJ IURP LQFUHDVHG KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV LV WKUHDWHQLQJ /DNH 9LFWRULD LWV HIIHFWV
EHLQJFKDUDFWHULVHGE\HXWURSKLFDWLRQDQGWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIGUDPDWLFDOO\ORZGLVVROYHGR[\JHQ
OHYHOV 7KLV VWXG\ DSSOLHV D V\VWHP RI SROOXWLRQ LQYHQWRU\ PHWKRGV WR HVWLPDWH ZDVWH ORDGV
IURPSROOXWLRQVRXUFHVRQWKHEDVLVRIIXQFWLRQDOYDULDEOHVDQGSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV3HQHWUDWLRQ
IDFWRUVDUHXVHGWRLQFRUSRUDWHWKHHIIHFWVRIWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVDQGRIQDWXUDOµSXULILFDWLRQ¶LQ
ULYHUV DQG ZHWODQGV 7KH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI D EDVLF HUURU DQDO\VLV SURYLGHV LQVLJKW LQWR WKH
UHOLDELOLW\RIUHVXOWV$GLPHQVLRQDOPRGHOLVDSSOLHGWRDVVHVVWKHRYHUDOOQXWULHQWEDODQFH
5HVXOWV VKRZ WKDW %2' ORDG LV KLJKHVW RQ WKH .HQ\DQ VLGH 'RPHVWLF %2' ORDGV H[FHHG
LQGXVWULDOORDGVLQDOOUHJLRQVDQGPDQDJHPHQWSROLFLHVVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHGLUHFWHGSULPDULO\
WRZDUGVDUHGXFWLRQRIGRPHVWLFSROOXWLRQ,WZDVFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKURXJKHIIHFWLYHRSHUDWLRQRI
H[LVWLQJWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVDORQH%2'ORDGVRQWKH.HQ\DQVLGHFRXOGEHUHGXFHGE\
1XWULHQW LQSXW DSSHDUV WR RULJLQDWH PDLQO\ IURP DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ DQG ODQG UXQRII
WRJHWKHUDFFRXQWLQJIRUDSSUR[LPDWHO\RISKRVSKRURXVDQGRIQLWURJHQLQSXWLQWR
WKHODNH7KHLQFUHDVHLQHXWURSKLFDWLRQLVPRVWSUREDEO\GXHWRDQLQFUHDVHLQQXWULHQWLQSXW
IURPWKHVHVRXUFHVDVDUHVXOWRILQFUHDVHGKXPDQDFWLYLWLHVLQWKHODNHVXUURXQGLQJVVXFKDV
ODQGH[SORLWDWLRQIRUDJULFXOWXUHDQGIRUHVWEXUQLQJ3ROLFLHVIRUVXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQWLQWKH
UHJLRQ LQFOXGLQJ UHVWRUDWLRQ DQG SUHVHUYDWLRQ RI WKH ODNH
V HFRV\VWHP VKRXOG WKHUHIRUH EH
GLUHFWHGDWLPSURYLQJODQGXVHSUDFWLFHVDQGDFRQWURORYHUODQGFOHDULQJDQGIRUHVWEXUQLQJ
,QWURGXFWLRQ
:LWKDVXUIDFHDUHDRINPDQGDQDYHUDJHGHSWKRIP/DNH9LFWRULDLVWKHWKLUG
ODUJHVWIUHVKZDWHUERG\LQWKHZRUOGDQGRIFUXFLDOVRFLRHFRQRPLFLPSRUWDQFHWRLWVULSDULDQ
SRSXODWLRQ 7KH WKUHH VXUURXQGLQJ FRXQWULHV Š 7DQ]DQLD 8JDQGD DQG .HQ\D Š FRQWURO
UHVSHFWLYHO\DQGRIWKHODNHDUHDDQGPDNHXVHRILWVUHVRXUFHVIRUIUHVKZDWHU
ILVKHU\DQGDYHQXHVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ7KHODNH¶VNPFDWFKPHQWDUHDVWUHWFKHVIXUWKHU
DFURVV5ZDQGDDQG%XUXQGL)LJXUHSDJH7KHODNH¶VZDWHUEDODQFHLVGRPLQDWHGE\
HYDSRUDWLRQDQGSUHFLSLWDWLRQLWVVLQJOHRXWOHWEHLQJWKH9LFWRULD1LOHDW-LQMD8JDQGD
,QWKHODVWIHZGHFDGHVWKHODNHKDVXQGHUJRQHODUJHFKDQJHVLQFKHPLVWU\DQGELRORJ\DVD
UHVXOWRIJURZLQJKXPDQLQWHUIHUHQFH7KUHDWVWRWKHODNH
VHFRV\VWHPLQFOXGHRYHUILVKLQJWKH
LQWURGXFWLRQ RI H[RWLF ILVK VSHFLHV VXFK DV WKH QRWRULRXV 1LOH 3HUFK /DWHV 1LORWLFXV
DFFRPSDQLHGE\DGUDVWLFUHGXFWLRQLQHQGHPLFVSHFLHV*ROGVPLWKHWDO*RSKHQHWDO
.DXIPDQ :LWWH HW DO D E DQG WKH ODUJH VFDOH LQILOWUDWLRQ RI WKH
ZDWHUK\DFLQWK(LFKKRUQLDFUDVVLSHV)XUWKHUPRUHSROOXWLRQIURPGRPHVWLFLQGXVWULDODQG
DJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLWLHV KDYH OHDG WR D GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI ZDWHU TXDOLW\ FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ DOJDO
EORRPV HYHQ RIIVKRUH 2FKXPED DQG .LEDDUD DQG SHULRGLF PDVVLYH ILVK PRUWDOLW\
FDXVHG E\ R[\JHQ GHSOHWLRQ +HFN\ HW DO 2FKXPED :LGHVSUHDG ZDWHUERUQH
GLVHDVHVDQGUHGXFHGEHQHILWVWRULSDULDQSHRSOHUHVXOW
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
7KLVVWXG\SUHVHQWVDQDVVHVVPHQWRISROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDQGWKHLUFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHFKDQJHV
WDNLQJ SODFH LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD 7KH DVVHVVPHQW PDNHV XVH RI WKH VFDWWHUHG DPRXQW RI GDWD
DOUHDG\DYDLODEOHDSSO\LQJDVHWRIPHWKRGRORJLHVIRUWUDQVODWLRQRIWKLVGDWDLQWRFRQFOXVLRQV
WKDW FRXOG FRQWULEXWH WR WKH GHVLJQ RI HIIHFWLYH SROOXWLRQ FRQWURO DSSURDFKHV 'DWD ZHUH
JDWKHUHGERWKWKURXJKOLWHUDWXUHVXUYH\DQGILHOGVXUYH\VLQWKHSHULRGWREXLOGLQJ
XSRQHDUOLHUZRUNWKRXJKOHVVH[WHQVLYHRIRWKHUV&DODPDULHWDO6FKHUHQHWDO
DQG.LUXJDUDDQG1HYHMDQ
7KH VWXG\ LV IXUWKHUPRUH WKRXJKW WR FRQWULEXWH WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI HIIHFWLYH PHWKRGV IRU
SROOXWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW LQ GDWD DQG UHVRXUFH SRRU VLWXDWLRQV 7KH PHWKRGRORJ\ IROORZHG KDV
SURYHQ WR EH HIIHFWLYH IRU SROOXWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW LQ VLWXDWLRQV ZKHUH H[WHQVLYH PRQLWRULQJ
SURJUDPVFDQQRWEHH[HFXWHGVXFKDVRIWHQWKHFDVHLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV,QYLHZRIWKH
FDWFKPHQW DUHD
V FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ZLWK RUJDQLF SROOXWLRQ IURP LQGXVWULHV IDUPLQJ DQG EDVLF
FRQVXPSWLRQSDWWHUQVSUHYDLOLQJWKHUHVXOWVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVSDSHUDUHOLPLWHGWRWKUHHPDMRU
RUJDQLF SROOXWLRQ SDUDPHWHUV 7KH GD\ %LRORJLFDO 2[\JHQ 'HPDQG %2' ORDG DV DQ
LQGLFDWRU IRU WKH SROOXWLRQ ORDG RI LQGXVWULHV DQG GRPHVWLF HIIOXHQWV WR ED\V DQG QHDUVKRUH
ZDWHUVRIWHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHVDQGQLWURJHQ1DQGSKRVSKRUXV3DV
QXWULHQWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHHXWURSKLFDWLRQRIWKHODNH
0HWKRGRORJ\
7KH PHWKRG KHUHDIWHU GHVFULEHG FRQVLVWV RI IRXU PDLQ FRPSRQHQWV L D SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV
DVVHVVPHQWEDVHGRQZKDWLVRIWHQUHIHUUHGWRDVµUDSLGDVVHVVPHQW¶PHWKRG(FRQRPRSRXORV
6FKHUHQHWDO:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQL]DWLRQLLSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUV
WR LQFRUSRUDWH WKH HIIHFWV RI µQDWXUDO SXULILFDWLRQ¶ E\ ULYHUV DQG ZHWODQGV DQG WKH µHQIRUFHG
SXULILFDWLRQ¶ RI WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV LLL DQ HUURU DQDO\VLV WR HYDOXDWH WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI
FRQFOXVLRQV DQG LY DQ HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH UHODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV WR WKH
ODNH¶VQXWULHQWEDODQFH
3ROOXWLRQ6RXUFHV$VVHVVPHQW
7KH VWDQGDUG SURFHGXUH XVHG WR HVWLPDWH SROOXWLRQ IURP WKH YDULRXV ODQGEDVHG SROOXWLRQ
VRXUFHVLVEDVHGRQWKHIROORZLQJJHQHUDOIRUPXOD
(TXDWLRQ
>:DVWH/RDG@ >)XQFWLRQD O9DULDEOH@[>3ROOXWLRQ,QWHQVLW\@ ZKHUHWKHSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLW\UHSUHVHQWVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFDPRXQWRIZDVWHSHUXQLWRIDFHUWDLQ
IXQFWLRQDOYDULDEOH$VXLWDEOHVHOHFWLRQRISDUDPHWHUVDOORZVHVWLPDWLRQRIZDVWHORDGVRQWKH
EDVLV RI PRUH HDVLO\ PHDVXUDEOH GDWD VXFK DV SRSXODWLRQ SURGXFWLRQ DQG ODQGXVH ILJXUHV
7DEOHSUHVHQWVIXQFWLRQDOYDULDEOHVDQGSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVDVSURSRVHGLQWKLVVWXG\
,Q 7DEOH DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ ZDV DGGHG WR WKH FRPPRQO\ XVHG VRXUFHV
(FRQRPRSRXORVEHFDXVHWKLVLQFDVHVLVDQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHRI
ODNHV%RRWVPDHWDO+XPDQDFWLYLWLHVLQDZLGHDUHDDURXQGWKHZDWHUERG\VXFKDV
ELRPDVVEXUQLQJDQGODQGFXOWLYDWLRQUHVXOWLQJLQHURVLRQDUHNQRZQWREHRISRWHQWLDOO\ODUJH
LQIOXHQFHWRQXWULHQWIORZYLDWKLVDYHQXH&UXW]HQDQG$QGUHDH*DOORZD\HWDO
*ROGPDQHWDO/HZLV
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH )XQFWLRQDOYDULDEOHVDQGSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUWKHSULQFLSOHSROOXWLRQVRXUFHV
3ROOXWLRQVRXUFH
)XQFWLRQDOYDULDEOH
3ROOXWLRQLQWHQVLW\
,QGXVWULHV
+RXVHKROGV
$JULFXOWXUH
$WPRVSKHULF'HSRVLWLRQ
$QQXDOSURGXFWLRQ
3RSXODWLRQQXPEHU
$UHDRIQRQFXOWLYDWHGODQG
6XUIDFHDUHD
:DVWHSURGXFWLRQSHUXQLWSURGXFW
$QQXDOZDVWHSURGXFWLRQSHUSHUVRQ
$QQXDOH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVRIQXWULHQWV
$QQXDOGHSRVLWLRQSHUXQLWRIVXUIDFHDUHD
7KH DFWXDO DVVHVVPHQW GHPDQGV ILUVWO\ WKH FROOHFWLRQ RI EDVHOLQH GDWD RQ WKH IXQFWLRQDO
YDULDEOHVFKRVHQ'DWDPD\EHFROOHFWHGWKURXJKILHOGVXUYH\VEXWRIWHQDOVRH[WUDFWHGIURP
DYDLODEOH VWDWLVWLFDO UHSRUWV GDWD IURP ORFDO QDWLRQDO DQG UHJLRQDO JRYHUQPHQWDO DQG QRQ
JRYHUQPHQWDOLQVWLWXWLRQVVFLHQWLILFOLWHUDWXUHDQGRWKHUZULWWHQDQGQRQZULWWHQUHVRXUFHV
,QXVLQJWKHDERYHSURFHGXUHWKHFKRLFHRIFKDUDFWHULVWLFSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVEHFRPHVYHU\
GHOLFDWHVLQFHIDFWRUVOLNHH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVDQGZDVWHSHUXQLWSURGXFWRUSHUVRQYDU\ZLGHO\
DFURVV FDVHV 'XH DWWHQWLRQ VKRXOG WKHUHIRUH EH JLYHQ WR WKH VHOHFWLRQ RI WKHVH SDUDPHWHUV
GHPDQGLQJDUHYLHZRIOLWHUDWXUHGDWDIURPFDVHVDVVLPLODUDVSRVVLEOHWRWKHRQHVXUYH\HG$
UDQJHRISRVVLEOHYDOXHVIRUHDFKSDUDPHWHUPD\EHGHILQHG
3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUV
7KHDFWXDOSROOXWDQWORDGWRDJLYHQZDWHUERG\PD\QRWEHHTXDOWRZKDWOHDYHVWKHVRXUFHDW
LWV RULJLQ :DVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV DQG VHOISXULILFDWLRQ LQ ULYHUV DQG ZHWODQGV PD\
UHGXFH WKH DFWXDO ORDG $Q HODERUDWLRQ RI WKH VWDQGDUG IRUPXOD DOORZV IRU VXFK HIIHFWV WR EH
LQFRUSRUDWHGLQWKHDVVHVVPHQW
(TXDWLRQ >:DVWH/RDG@ >)XQFWLRQDO9DULDEOH@[>3ROOXWLRQ,QWHQVLW\@[>3HQHWUDWLRQ)DFWRU@ ZKHUH WKH YDOXH RI WKH SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRU PD\ YDU\ EHWZHHQ DQG 7KH PRVW FRPPRQ
SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV DUH HIILFLHQF\ IDFWRUV IRU GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW
IDFLOLWLHV7\SLFDOSHUIRUPDQFHVRIQRUPDOO\RSHUDWLQJSODQWVDUHUHSRUWHGE\(FRQRPRSRXORV
DOWKRXJKEDGRSHUDWLRQPD\UHTXLUHHVWLPDWLRQVRIWUHDWPHQWHIILFLHQFLHVWREHPDGHRQ
WKH EDVLV RI VLWH YLVLWV DQG HIIOXHQW DQDO\VLV GDWD )XUWKHUPRUH QDWXUDO SXULILFDWLRQ HIIHFWVRI
ULYHUVDQGVWUHDPVUHGXFH%2'IURPDGLVWDQWVRXUFH7KHEUHDNGRZQRI%2'LQULYHUVFDQ
EHGHVFULEHGDVDILVWRUGHUGHFD\SURFHVV
(TXDWLRQ
/
/
H[S
. ˜'
˜ Y
ZKHUH/UHSUHVHQWV%2'DWODNHHQWU\/ UHSUHVHQWV%2'DWWKHSRLQWRIGLVFKDUJH.LVWKH
GHFD\UDWH>GD\@'LVWKHGLVWDQFHEHWZHHQGLVFKDUJHSRLQWDQGODNHVKRUH>NP@DQGYLVWKH
IORZYHORFLW\>PV@//WKXVSURYLGHVDYDOXHIRUWKHSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUDWGLVWDQFH'IURPWKH
ODNHVKRUH7KHGHFD\IDFWRU.GHSHQGVRQPDQ\GLIIHUHQWULYHUFKDUDFWHULVWLFVVXFKDVEDFWHULDO
FRPSRVLWLRQZDWHUWHPSHUDWXUHZDWHUWXUEXOHQFHDQGVWUHDPYHORFLW\DQGZLOOEHGLIIHUHQWIRU
LQGLYLGXDOSDUWVRIULYHUV9DOXHVUHSRUWHGUDQJHIURPWRGD\EXWDUHPRVWRIWHQLQ
WKHRUGHURIGD\0HWFDOIDQG(GG\7KRPDQQDQG0XHOOHU=DQWLQJ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
1XWULHQWDQGR[\JHQGHPDQGLQJZDVWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQULYHUVDQGVHZDJHRXWOHWVPD\DOVREH
UHGXFHG ZKHQ GUDLQLQJ WKURXJK ZHWODQGV 7KH ZHWODQG SXULILFDWLRQ FDSDFLW\ LV UHODWHG WR
YDULRXVK\GURORJLFDODVSHFWVVXFKDVZDWHUGHSWKUHWHQWLRQWLPHDQGGHJUHHRIFDQDOLVDWLRQ
$SSURSULDWHZHWODQGSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHLGHQWLILHGIRUHDFKLQGLYLGXDOFDVH
(UURU$QDO\VLV
(UURUVLQWKHFDOFXODWLRQRIZDVWHORDGVPD\EHFDXVHGE\HLWKHUYDULDELOLW\RUELDV5HFNKRZ
DQG 6LPSVRQ ,Q RXU FDVH YDULDELOLW\ PD\ UHVXOW IURP IOXFWXDWLRQV LQKHUHQW LQ D
FKDUDFWHULVWLFRIWKHSROOXWLRQVRXUFHUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKHµIXQFWLRQDOYDULDEOH¶%LDVPD\UHVXOW
IURPWKHIDFWWKDWWKHHVWLPDWHPD\QRWIXOO\UHSUHVHQWWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFWKDWLWZDVVHOHFWHGWR
HVWLPDWH 8QFHUWDLQW\ LQ WKLV UHJDUG LV IRU H[DPSOH LQWURGXFHG ZKHQ YDOXHV IRU µSROOXWLRQ
LQWHQVLWLHV¶JHQHUDWHGIURPRWKHUFDVHVHJZDWHUVKHGVLQWHPSHUDWHFOLPDWHVDUHDSSOLHGWR
WKH/DNH9LFWRULDEDVLQ
,QWKHFDVHRIWKLVVWXG\WKHGDQJHURIELDVHUURUVRULJLQDWLQJIURPWKHVHOHFWLRQRISROOXWLRQ
LQWHQVLWLHVDUHPXFKODUJHUWKDQWKDWFDXVHGE\YDULDELOLW\VLQFHWKHODWWHUUHIHUVWRSULPDU\GDWD
FROOHFWHGDQGYHULILHGLQWKHILHOG7RDFFRXQWIRUELDVLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWSDUDPHWHUVWKHDQDO\VW
PLJKWGHILQHDUDQJHUHSUHVHQWHGE\µKLJK¶µPRVWOLNHO\¶RUµEHVWJXHVV¶DQGµORZ¶YDOXHV
EDVHGRQYDOXHVUHSRUWHGLQOLWHUDWXUH7KHZLGWKRIWKHVHOHFWHGKLJKORZLQWHUYDOH[SUHVVHVWKH
FRQILGHQFHRIWKHDQDO\VWLQWKHPRVWOLNHO\YDOXH7KHSURFHGXUHDSSOLHGKHUHLVEDVHGRQILUVW
RUGHU DQDO\VLV %HQMDPLQ DQG &RUQHOO $ PRGLILFDWLRQ RI WKH &KHE\VKHY LQHTXDOLW\
UHVXOWVLQFRQILGHQFHOLPLWVIRUWKHHVWLPDWHGWRWDOZDVWHORDG:DVIROORZV
(TXDWLRQ
3URE> : PO K ˜ V d : d : PO K ˜ V @ t (TXDWLRQ
V
(TXDWLRQ
V
: KLJK : PO
˜ K
: PO : ORZ
(TXDWLRQVWDWHVWKDWWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHWUXHZDVWHORDG:OLHVZLWKLQFHUWDLQERXQGV
DURXQG WKH PRVW OLNHO\ YDOXH :PO GHILQHG E\ D PXOWLSOH K RI WKH HVWLPDWLRQ HUURU V LV
JUHDWHUWKDQRUHTXDOWRK)RUDWKHRUHWLFDOHODERUDWLRQRQWKHSURFHGXUHZHUHIHUWR
5HFNKRZDQG6LPSVRQ,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRVWDWHWKDWZLWKWKLVSURFHGXUHLWLVQRWUHTXLUHG
WKDWWKHHUURUWHUPEHQRUPDOO\GLVWULEXWHGZKLFKFRQWUDU\WRPDQ\RWKHUPHWKRGVLPSOLHVWKDW
ORZDQGKLJKLQWHUYDOVQHHGQRWQHFHVVDULO\EHV\PPHWULF
1XWULHQWEDODQFHDVVHVVPHQW
7R DVVHVV WKH RYHUDOO QXWULHQW EXGJHW RI D ODNH D RQHGLPHQVLRQDO LQSXWRXWSXW PRGHO LV
SURSRVHG$OWKRXJKVXFKDPRGHODYHUDJHVFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRYHUWKHODNHDQGLVWKHUHZLWKQRW
VXLWDEOH WR SUHGLFW ORFDO GHYLDWLRQV DQG IOXFWXDWLRQV LW LV D XVHIXO WRRO WR DVVHVV WKH RYHUDOO
QXWULHQW EDODQFH 8QGHU VWHDG\VWDWH FRQGLWLRQV ZKHQ QXWULHQWV FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DUH UHODWLYHO\
FRQVWDQW DQG DVVXPLQJ WKDW ODNH YROXPH DQG RXWIORZ DUH FRQVWDQW DQG WKDW DOO SURFHVVHV
LQYROYLQJ QXWULHQWV HJ VHGLPHQWDWLRQ DUH OLQHDUO\ UHODWHG WR WKH QXWULHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ
(TXDWLRQGHVFULEHVWKHODNH¶VQXWULHQWEDODQFH
&KDSWHU
(TXDWLRQ
: $ & $ [ 4 RXW 9
$
YV
+
ZKHUH:$UHSUHVHQWVLQSXWRIQXWULHQW$>J\@&$LVWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIQXWULHQW$>JP@4RXW
LV WKH ULYHU RXWIORZ >P\@ 9 LV WKH ODNH YROXPH >P@ Y V$ LV WKH VHGLPHQWDWLRQ YHORFLW\ IRU
QXWULHQW $ >P\@ DQG + LV WKH DYHUDJH ODNH GHSWK >P@ 6LQFH WKH DVVXPSWLRQV PDGH DUH
JHQHUDOO\YDOLGDSSUR[LPDWLRQVIRUDODUJHZDWHUERG\VXFKDV/DNH9LFWRULD6FKHUHQ
HODERUDWHVRQWKLV(TXDWLRQWKXVSURYLGHVDQHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHWRWDOQXWULHQWORDG:$
5HVXOWV
7KH IROORZLQJ UHVXOWV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW DUH UHSRUWHG LQ D V\VWHPDWLF RUGHU VWDUWLQJ ZLWK DQ
DVVHVVPHQWRIUHOHYDQWODNHEDVLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVIROORZHGE\DGHILQLWLRQRISROOXWLRQLQGLFHV
DQGSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVDQGFRQFOXGHGZLWKWKHDFWXDOUHVXOWVRQ%2'DQGQXWULHQWORDGLQJ
DQGDQDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFH
/DNHEDVLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
,QGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQ0RVWLQGXVWU\LVORFDWHGLQWKHODUJHUWRZQVERUGHULQJWKHODNH.DPSDOD
DQG-LQMDLQ8JDQGD0ZDQ]DDQG0XVRPDLQ7DQ]DQLDDQG.LVXPXLQ.HQ\D([FHSWLRQVDUH
WKHODUJHVXJDUIDFWRULHVLQ.HQ\DORFDWHGDWVRPHGLVWDQFHIURPWKHODNH7DEOHSUHVHQWV
DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKH LQGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH UHJLRQ $OWKRXJK LQ 7DQ]DQLD
DQG 8JDQGD LQGXVWULDO ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV DUH JHQHUDOO\ DEVHQW D PDMRULW\ RI WKH
.HQ\DQ IDFWRULHV GRHV RSHUDWH D WUHDWPHQW SODQW $ PLQRULW\ RI LQGXVWULHV LV IXUWKHUPRUH
FRQQHFWHGWRDQXUEDQVHZDJHV\VWHP$OWKRXJKWUHDWPHQWHIILFLHQFLHVDUHJHQHUDOO\ORZWKHLU
HIIHFW VKRXOG QRW EH QHJOHFWHG 0XFK RI 8JDQGDQ LQGXVWULDO HIIOXHQWV IXUWKHUPRUH GUDLQ
WKURXJKZHWODQGVEHIRUHUHDFKLQJWKHODNHVXUIDFHZDWHU
'RPHVWLF SROOXWLRQ :LWK DQ DSSUR[LPDWH SRSXODWLRQ RI PLOOLRQ WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD
FDWFKPHQWDUHDLVRQHRIWKHPRVWGHQVHO\SRSXODWHGSDUWVRI$IULFD$QQXDOSRSXODWLRQJURZWK
LVLQPRVWSDUWVRIWKHODNHEDVLQEXWXUEDQSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLVRYHUSHU\HDULQ
PRVWRIWKHODUJHUWRZQV7DEOHVXPPDULVHVSRSXODWLRQVWDWLVWLFVIRUWKHODNHEDVLQ
/DQGUXQRII7KHUHDUHPDQ\GHQVHO\FXOWLYDWHGDUHDVLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDEDVLQHVSHFLDOO\LQ
.HQ\D5ZDQGDDQG%XUXQGL,PSRUWDQWVWDSOHFURSVDUHPDL]HDQGEDQDQDV7KHPDLQFDVK
FURSV DUH VXJDUFDQH FRIIHH DQG WHD /DQG XVH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DUH VXPPDULVHG LQ 7DEOH 0RVWYDOXHVDUHH[WUDSRODWLRQVIURPUHFHQWVXUYH\VDVVXPLQJDDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHIRUWKH
DUHDRIFXOWLYDWHGODQG0LQLVWU\RI:DWHU'HYHORSPHQW
$WPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ $YHUDJH UDLQIDOO RYHU /DNH 9LFWRULD LV PP\ “
HTXLYDOHQW WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ NP\ 5HJLRQDO UDLQIDOO YDULHV EHWZHHQ PP\ LQ
0XVRPD7DQ]DQLDDQGPP\LQ.DODQJDOD8JDQGD&UXO3LSHUHWDO
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
• 7DEOH (VWLPDWHGSURGXFWLRQRIPDMRULQGXVWULHVLQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDRI/DNH9LFWRULD
E\FRXQWU\DQGLQGXVWULDOVXEVHFWRU
,6,&
,QGXVWU\
6KDUHGSURGXFWLRQRIPDMRUIDFWRULHV>W\@
6ODXJKWHU+RXVHV
'DLU\)DFWRULHV
)LVK)DFWRULHV
9HJHWDEOH2LO5HILQHULHV
6XJDU)DFWRULHV
'LVWLOOHULHV
%UHZHULHV
%RWWOHULHV
&RWWRQ0LOOV
/HDWKHU7DQQHULHV
3DSHU0LOOV
6RDS)DFWRULHV
.HQ\D
8JDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
• 7DEOH 'RPHVWLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULDFDWFKPHQWDUHD
7RWDO
SRSXODWLRQ
>SHRSOH@
8UEDQ3RSXODWLRQ>SHRSOH@
6HZHUHG
8QVHZHUHG
1XPEHURIWRZQV
.HQ\D
8JDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
5ZDQGD
%XUXQGL
7RWDO
• 7DEOH $JULFXOWXUDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULDFDWFKPHQWDUHD
&DWFKPHQWODQGDUHD>KD@
FXOWLYDWHG
QRQFXOWLYDWHG
WRWDO
.HQ\D
8JDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
5ZDQGD
%XUXQGL
7RWDO
9DOXHVEHWZHHQEUDFNHWVUHSUHVHQWQXPEHURIPDMRUIDFWRULHV6RXUFHV.HQ\D&DODPDULHWDO.LUXJDUDDQG
1HYHMDQ0LQLVWU\RI3ODQQLQJDQG1DWLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW2HUOHPDQVLQGXVWULDOVLWHYLVLWV8JDQGD
'URUXJD0LQLVWU\RI)LQDQFH(FRQRPLF3ODQQLQJ0LQLVWU\RI1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHVVLWHYLVLWV
7DQ]DQLD+|MOXQGDQG0DUZDDE5HJLRQDO7UDGH2IILFH0ZDQ]D6FKHUHQHWDO
6RXUFHV.HQ\D0LQLVWU\RI:DWHU'HYHORSPHQW8JDQGD0LQLVWU\RI)LQDQFH(FRQRPLF3ODQQLQJ
0LQLVWU\RI1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHV1DWLRQDO:DWHUDQG6HZHUDJH&RUSRUDWLRQ7DQ]DQLD0DWRZR
6FKHUHQHWDO5ZDQGDDQG%XUXQGL9HUOLQGHQ
6RXUFHV.HQ\D/DNH%DVLQ'HYHORSPHQW$XWKRULW\0LQLVWU\RI:DWHU'HYHORSPHQW.HQ\D*UDLQ
*URZHUV&RRSHUDWLYH8QLRQ.LUXJDUDDQG1HYHMDQ8JDQGD%DQNRI8JDQGD0LQLVWU\RI
$JULFXOWXUH$QLPDO,QGXVWU\DQG)LVKHULHV0LQLVWU\RI1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHV:RUOG%DQN
7DQ]DQLD.,/,02)$2)HUWLOL]HU3URJUDPPH0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUHDQG/LYHVWRFN'HYHORSPHQW
6FKHUHQHWDO5ZDQGDDQG%XUXQGL%XOORFNHWDO8QLWHG1DWLRQV
&KDSWHU
:HWODQGV 7KH ODUJHVW ZHWODQG DUHD LQ WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD EDVLQ LV LQ ZHVWHUQ 8JDQGD 7KH
HQWLUHGUDLQDJHRIWKH.DWRQJDDQG5XL]L.LEDOLULYHUEDVLQVLVWKURXJKULYHUFKDQQHOVWKDWXVHG
WREHPRUHUDSLGO\IORZLQJLQKLVWRU\EXWZKLFKDUHQRZVOXJJLVKFKRNHGZLWKVZDPSVDQGLQ
SODFHV IORRGHG RXW WR IRUP VPDOO VZDPS\ ODNHV %HDGOH DQG /LQG 2WKHU LPSRUWDQW
ZHWODQGV LQ 8JDQGD DUH WKH VPDOO VZDPSV RQ WKH ODNHVKRUH UHFHLYLQJ WKH GRPHVWLF DQG
LQGXVWULDOZDVWHZDWHUIURP.DPSDODDQG-LQMD2JDUDPDQG.DOHPD)XUWKHUPRUHWKH
.DJHUDULYHUEDVLQGUDLQLQJWKURXJK5ZDQGD%XUXQGL7DQ]DQLDDQG8JDQGDLVFRYHUHGZLWK
ODUJHDUHDVRIZHWODQGV,PSRUWDQWVZDPSVRQWKH.HQ\DQVLGHDUHDWWKHPRXWKVRIWKHULYHUV
<DODDQG1\DQGR
'HILQLWLRQRISROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV
,QGXVWULDO3ROOXWLRQ (FRQRPRSRXORVDQG:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQL]DWLRQSUHVHQW
SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV IRU LQGXVWULDO ZDVWH ORDGV DYHUDJHG IURP GDWD DOO RYHU WKH ZRUOG 7DEOH
SUHVHQWV YDOXHV IRU HVWLPDWLRQ RI %2' ORDGV IURP LQGXVWULHV W\SLFDO WR WKH UHJLRQ
$OWKRXJK WKH LQGLYLGXDO YDOXHV PD\ EH ELDVHG WKH RYHUDOO ZDVWH ORDG HVWLPDWLRQ IRU D ODUJH
EDWFK RI VRXUFHV PD\ EH H[SHFWHG UHDVRQDEO\ DFFXUDWH (FRQRPRSRXORV $Q HUURU
HVWLPDWLRQZRXOGWKHUHIRUHQRWEHUHTXLUHG
• 7DEOH 3ROOXWLRQ,QWHQVLWLHVIRULQGXVWULDO%2'ORDGFODVVLILHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO
6WDQGDUG,QGXVWULDO&ODVVLILFDWLRQ,6,&
,6,&
,QGXVWU\
%2'
>NJW@
,6,& ,QGXVWU\
6ODXJKWHU+RXVHV
'DLU\)DFWRULHV
)LVK)DFWRULHV
9HJHWDEOH2LO5HILQHULHV
6XJDU)DFWRULHV
'LVWLOOHULHV
%UHZHULHV
%RWWOHULHV
&RWWRQ0LOOV
&RIIHH)DFWRULHV
/HDWKHU7DQQHULHV
3DSHU0LOOV
3DLQW)DFWRULHV
6RDS)DFWRULHV
%2'
>NJW@
'RPHVWLF3ROOXWLRQ7DEOHSUHVHQWVUDQJHVDQGPRVWOLNHO\YDOXHVIRUZDVWHJHQHUDWHGE\
ERWKVHZHUHGDQGXQVHZHUHGXUEDQGRPHVWLFSRSXODWLRQEDVHGRQUHYLHZVE\(FRQRPRSRXORV
,ZXJR -¡UJHQVHQ 9LJKL DQG &KLDXGDQL DQG :RUOG +HDOWK
2UJDQL]DWLRQ8QOLNHWKHSRSXODWLRQLQFLWLHVDQGWRZQVRIWHQORFDWHGGLUHFWO\RQWKH
ODNHVKRUHVRULWVDGMDFHQWED\VDQGVWUHDPVUXUDOKRXVHKROGVDUHVFDWWHUHGLQWKHFDVHRI/DNH
9LFWRULDRYHUDQDUHDXSWRNPIURPWKHODNHDQGWKHLUZDVWHVWUHDPVIRUWKHPDMRUSDUW
QRWGLUHFWO\OLQNHGWRZDWHUFRXUVHV7KHLUFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHRYHUDOOLQSXWVZRXOGEHDFFRXQWHG
IRUZLWKLQWKHRYHUDOOODQGUXQRIIVWUHDP
6RXUFHV(FRQRPRSRXORV:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQL]DWLRQ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
• 7DEOH 6HOHFWHGSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUXUEDQGRPHVWLFOLTXLGZDVWHJHQHUDWLRQ
6DQLWDWLRQ
,QWHUYDO
6HZHUHG
ORZ
PRVWOLNHO\
KLJK
8QVHZHUHG
ORZ
PRVWOLNHO\
KLJK
%2'
>NJSHUVÂ\@
1
>NJSHUVÂ\@
3
>NJSHUVÂ\@
/DQGUXQRII7KHPHWKRGDSSOLHGIRUWKHHVWLPDWLRQRIQXWULHQWODQGUXQRIIHPSOR\VWKHH[SRUW
FRHIILFLHQW DSSURDFK RI -¡UJHQVHQ D SURFHGXUH ZLGHO\ XVHG LQ PDQ\ VWXGLHV HJ
0DWWLNDOOL DQG 5LFKDUGV 6FKHUHQ 7KH ORVV RI 1 DQG 3 WR ZDWHUFRXUVHV LV
HVWLPDWHGDVDIXQFWLRQRIDUHDDQGH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVZKHUHH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVPD\YDU\IRU
GLIIHUHQW FDWHJRULHV RI ODQGXVH 0DQ\ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV FRQWURO QXWULHQW H[SRUW LQFOXGLQJ
SUHFLSLWDWLRQUXQRIIVRLOWH[WXUHVORSHW\SHRIFURSFXOWLYDWHGDQGIHUWLOLVHUDSSOLFDWLRQ7KH
VHOHFWLRQRIVXLWDEOHDQGXQLYHUVDOH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVWKHUHIRUHLQWURGXFHVPDMRUXQFHUWDLQW\
7KHUDQJHRIYDOXHVUHSRUWHGLQYDULRXVH[WHQVLYHUHYLHZVRIQXWULHQWH[SRUWUHODWLRQV%HDXODF
DQG5HFNKRZ5LWWHU7KRPDQQDQG0XHOOHUDVVXPPDULVHGLQ7DEOH
H[SUHVVHVWKLVXQFHUWDLQW\
• 7DEOH 6HOHFWHGQXWULHQWH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWV
LQWHUYDO
ORZ
PRVWOLNHO\
KLJK
8QLW
.JKDÂ\U
.JKDÂ\U
.JKDÂ\U
&XOWLYDWHGODQG
1RQFXOWLYDWHGODQG
1
3
1
3
8QIRUWXQDWHO\ GDWD RQ QXWULHQW H[SRUW LQ WKH YLFLQLWLHV RI /DNH 9LFWRULD DQG LQ IDFW IRU WKH
$IULFDQFRQWLQHQWDVDZKROHLVYHU\UDUHDQGZKHUHDYDLODEOHUHSUHVHQWVORVVRIQXWULHQWVIURP
SORWVRIDJULFXOWXUDOODQGUDWKHUWKDQWKHDFWXDODPRXQWHYHQWXDOO\HQGLQJXSLQZDWHUFRXUVHV
$UR\DDQG-XR2PRWLHWDO:DOWHUVDQG0DO]HU6PDOLQJHWDO
DQG/LMNOHPDUHSRUWYDOXHVIRU.LVLLLQ:HVWHUQ.HQ\DDQG5ZDQGDUHVSHFWLYHO\ZKHUH
QXWULHQWORVVWKURXJKOHDFKLQJDQGHURVLRQIURPDUDEOHODQGUDQJHIURPWRNJKDÂ\IRU3
DQGWRNJKDÂ\IRU1
&KDSWHU
7KDW WKH DFWXDO DPRXQW HQGLQJ XS LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD ZRXOG EH VXEVWDQWLDOO\ VPDOOHU PD\ EH
VKRZQE\FRPSDULQJGDWDIRU/DNH0DODZLZKLFKFDWFKPHQWDUHDKDVVLPLODUVRLOWH[WXUHDQG
SUHFLSLWDWLRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDV/DNH9LFWRULD%RRWVPDHWDOUHSRUWYDOXHVIRUQXWULHQW
LQSXWYLDULYHUVIORZLQJWKURXJKWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDZKLFKWUDQVODWHGLQWRDFWXDOLQSXWSHUDUHD
RIODQGOHDGWRH[SRUWIDFWRUVRINJKDÂ\IRU1DQGNJKDÂ\IRU3$OWKRXJKODQGXVH
SUDFWLFHV YDU\ EHWZHHQ WKH WZR FDWFKPHQW DUHDV 7DEOH LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH GLIIHUHQFH LQ
H[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWIRUGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIODQGXVHZRXOGSUREDEO\QRWEHRIGUDPDWLFLQIOXHQFH
WR D URXJK FDOFXODWLRQ ,Q WKH DEVHQFH RI PRUH UHOLDEOH GDWD WKHUHIRUH H[SRUW FRHIILFLHQWV
FDOFXODWHG IRU /DNH 0DODZL DUH DSSOLHG DV D ILUVW HVWLPDWH +RZHYHU NHHSLQJ LQ PLQG WKH
KLJKHU SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ DQG PRUH LQWHQVLYH ODQGXVH DURXQG /DNH 9LFWRULD WKHVH YDOXHV
VKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGZLWKLQWKHORZHUUDQJHZKHQDSSOLHGWR/DNH9LFWRULD
$WPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ $V D FRQVHTXHQFH RI ERWK QDWXUDO DQG KXPDQ IDFWRUV DWPRVSKHULF
QXWULHQWORDGLQJYDULHVZLGHO\$VUHYLHZHGE\%RRWVPDHWDODQG/HZLVIRU
UHPRWH QRQPDULQH WURSLFDO ZDWHUVKHGV YDOXHV UHSRUWHG LQ OLWHUDWXUH UDQJH IURP WR NJKDÂ\IRU3DQGWRNJKDÂ\IRU15DUHGDWDRQQXWULHQWVLQDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQLQ
WKH UHJLRQ DUH JLYHQ E\ %RRWVPD DQG +HFN\ DQG %RRWVPD HW DO ZKR UHSRUW
YDOXHVPHDVXUHGLQQRQSRSXODWHGDUHDVRI/DNH0DODZLWREHNJKDÂ\IRU3DQG
NJKDÂ\IRU1,QWKHDEVHQFHRIPRUHUHOLDEOHGDWDWKHLUGDWDDUHXVHGDVPRVWOLNHO\YDOXHV
ZLWKWKHIXOOOLWHUDWXUHUDQJHRIYDOXHV%RRWVPDHWDO/HZLVDVXSSHUDQGORZHU
OLPLWV
,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDW%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\6FKHUHQ9LVVHUDQG,&5$)
UHSRUW GDWD RQ UDLQZDWHU DQDO\VLV IRU VDPSOHV WDNHQ RQ WKH VKRUHV RI /DNH 9LFWRULD
9DOXHV UDQJH IURP WR PJO IRU 1 DQG IURP WR PJO IRU 3 ZKLFK LV
VXEVWDQWLDOO\ KLJKHU WKDQ YDOXHV UHSRUWHG IRU RWKHU UHPRWH WURSLFDO GDWD VHWV *DOORZD\ HW DO
DQG GRHV VXJJHVW ODUJH LQWHUIHUHQFH ZLWK WKH HIIHFWV RI KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV RQ WKH ODNH
VKRUHV $OWKRXJK PRVW SUREDEO\ WKHUHIRUH QRW UHSUHVHQWDWLYH IRU WKH RSHQ ODNH GLVFXVVLRQ
H[LVWVDVWRZKHWKHUWKHVHKLJKQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVPLJKWEHFDXVHGE\WKHH[WHQVLYHIRUHVW
EXUQLQJLQWKHDGMDFHQW5ZDQGDDQG%XUXQGLKLJKODQGV%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\6FKHUHQ
D SKHQRPHQRQ DOVR GHVFULEHG E\ &UXW]HQ DQG $QGUHDH DQG *ROGPDQ HW DO
'HWHUPLQDWLRQRISHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUV
7KH WUHDWPHQW HIILFLHQFLHV RI LQGLYLGXDO LQGXVWULDO ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV ZHUH
HVWLPDWHG ZKHUH DYDLODEOH RQ WKH EDVLV RI HIIOXHQW DQDO\VLV GDWD DQG RWKHUZLVH XSRQ
MXGJHPHQWRIWKHDXGLWRUXVLQJDVDVWDUWLQJSRLQWWKHHIILFLHQFLHVIRURSWLPXPRSHUDWLRQDV
UHSRUWHG E\ (FRQRPRSRXOXV 3HQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV ZHUH UDWHG EHWZHHQ DQG FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRDQGHIILFLHQF\7KHIDFWRU\E\IDFWRU\UHVXOWVRIWKLVGDWDLQWHQVLYH
H[HUFLVHKDYHEHHQUHSRUWHGHOVHZKHUH6FKHUHQHWDO6FKHUHQ=DQWLQJ
&HQWUDOWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVIRUWKHWUHDWPHQWRIGRPHVWLFHIIOXHQWVZHUHUDWHGVLPLODUO\
ZLWK SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV HVWLPDWHG IURP DW UHDVRQDEO\ HIIHFWLYH RSHUDWLRQ IRU H[DPSOH LQ
-LQMD DQG .DPSDOD XS WR IRU VRPH RI WKH .HQ\DQ SODQWV UHOLDELOLW\ LQWHUYDOV ZHUH
DGRSWHGEHFDXVHRIWKHXQFHUWDLQW\LPSRVHGE\WKHMXGJHPHQWV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
)RUWKRVHLQGXVWULHVDQGWRZQVQRWORFDWHGRQWKHODNHVKRUHVGLVWDQFHSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVZHUH
GHILQHGDFFRUGLQJWR(TXDWLRQSDJH,QDFFRUGDQFHZLWKOLWHUDWXUHDPRVWOLNHO\YDOXH
RI GD\ ZDV DGRSWHG IRU WKH GHFD\ IDFWRU . ZLWK DV ERXQGDULHV WR GD\ 5LYHU
IORZV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG XVLQJ DQ HPSLULFDO UHODWLRQ JLYHQ E\ %XUNH WKURXJK ZKLFK
YHORFLW\LVUHODWHGWRFKDUDFWHULVWLFVVXFKDVULYHUYROXPHIORZVORSHGUDLQDJHDUHDDQGOHQJWK
7KHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIVHYHUDO.HQ\DQULYHUV0LQLVWU\RI:DWHU'HYHORSPHQWZHUHXVHG
WRGHWHUPLQHWKHYHORFLW\YZKLFKZDVHVWLPDWHGWRYDU\EHWZHHQDQGPVIRUULYHUV
DURXQG/DNH9LFWRULD&DOLEUDWLRQRI(TXDWLRQZLWKWKHVHUDQJHVIRU.DQGYDQGIRUVHYHUDO
YDOXHVRIWKHGLVWDQFH'UHVXOWVLQ%2'SHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVDVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH
• 7DEOH 6HOHFWHGGLVWDQFHSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVIRU%2'
'LVWDQFH
>NP@
ORZ
PRVW
OLNHO\
KLJK
:HWODQGSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVZHUHDSSOLHGIRUGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOVRXUFHVGUDLQLQJWKURXJK
ZHWODQGV %2' SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV DV UHSRUWHG E\ 5LFKDUGVRQ DQG 1LFKROV UDQJLQJ
IURPWRZLWKDVPRVWFRPPRQYDOXHZHUHDGRSWHG5LFKDUGVRQDQG1LFKROV
IXUWKHUPRUH SUHVHQW UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ 3 DQG 1 UHPRYDO UDWHV DQG ORDGLQJ EDVHG RQ
VWXGLHV RQ VHYHUDO 1RUWK $PHULFDQ ZHWODQGV 7KH UHVXOWV RI DSSO\LQJ WKHVH UHODWLRQV WKH
ZHWODQGV DURXQG /DNH 9LFWRULD DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH XQFHUWDLQW\ LQWHUYDOV ZHUH
DGRSWHG
• 7DEOH 1XWULHQWSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVWKURXJKZHWODQGVVHOHFWHGPRVWOLNHO\YDOXHV
/RDGLQJ
>J13PÂ\@
1
3
%2'ORDGLQJHVWLPDWHV
2UJDQLFZDVWHORDGVUHSUHVHQWHGE\D%2'ORDGZHUHDVVHVVHGIRUGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDO
SRLQW VRXUFHV $V WKH VWXG\ IRFXVHV RQ WKH SROOXWLRQ RI WKH ODNH WKH HVWLPDWHG JHQHUDWHG
%2'ORDGVZHUHFRUUHFWHGIRUSXULILFDWLRQLQWUHDWPHQWSODQWVULYHUVDQGZHWODQGV7DEOH
VKRZVWKHUHVXOWV
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH 5HVXOWVRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULD%2'ORDGLQJDVVHVVPHQW9DOXHVLQ>W\@
6RXUFH
.HQ\D
PRVWOLNHO\
8JDQGD
V
V
PRVWOLNHO\
V
7DQ]DQLD
V
PRVWOLNHO\
V
V
,QGXVWULDO
'RPHVWLF
7RWDO
3URE!
3URE!
7KH SUREDELOLW\ LQWHUYDOV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH UHVXOW IURP WKH KLJKORZ LQWHUYDOV IRU
GRPHVWLF SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV GLVWDQFH DQG ZHWODQG SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV DQG ZDVWHZDWHU
WUHDWPHQW HIILFLHQF\ +LJKORZ LQWHUYDOV IRU LQGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQ ILJXUHV DQG SROOXWLRQ
LQWHQVLWLHVZHUHQRWVHOHFWHGDVDUJXHGEHIRUHVHFWLRQ+RZHYHULWVFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKH
RYHUDOO %2' ORDG EHLQJ UHODWLYHO\ VPDOO WKLV KDV PLQRU LQIOXHQFH RQ WKH RYHUDOO UHVXOW
%UHZHULHV VXJDU FDQH IDFWRULHV DQG VRDS DQG RLO IDFWRULHV GLVSOD\ WKH ODUJHVW DPRXQW RI
LQGXVWULDO%2'ORDG
0RVW OLNHO\ %2' ORDGV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH 7KH HUURU DQDO\VLV XQGHUVWDWHV WKH
FRQFOXVLRQ WKDW GRPHVWLF SROOXWLRQ DFFRXQWV IRU PRVW RI WKH %2' ORDG RI 8JDQGD
V
GRPHVWLF%2'ORDGRULJLQDWHVIURPLWVFDSLWDO.DPSDODZKLOHLQ.HQ\DRULJLQDWHVIURP
.LVXPX)XUWKHUFDOLEUDWLRQRIWKH.HQ\DQUHVXOWVVKRZVWKDWLQFDVHDOOWKHSUHVHQWWUHDWPHQW
SODQWVZRXOGSHUIRUPRSWLPDOO\%2'ORDGVFRXOGEHEURXJKWGRZQZLWK
,QG XV WULDO
%2' >WRQ \HDU@
' RP HV WLF
. HQ\D
8JDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
• )LJXUH 0RVWOLNHO\%2'ORDGVWR/DNH9LFWRULD
1DQG3ORDGLQJHVWLPDWHV
7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWRI1DQG3ORDGVWR/DNH9LFWRULDDUHVXPPDULVHGLQ7DEOH
DQG)LJXUH/DQGUXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDUHWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWVRXUFHVRIERWK
1DQG3WRJHWKHUDFFRXQWLQJIRUDSSUR[LPDWHO\RI3DQGRI1LQSXWLQWRWKHODNH
'RPHVWLFOLTXLGZDVWHSOD\VRQO\DPLQRUUROHLQQXWULHQWORDGLQJ7KHKLJKHVWXQFHUWDLQW\LV
HTXDOO\LQWKHODQGUXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFQXWULHQWORDGHVWLPDWHV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
• 7DEOH 5HVXOWVRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULDQXWULHQWORDGLQJDVVHVVPHQW
8QLWW\
7RWDO1LWURJHQ
6RXUFH
PRVWOLNHO\
PRVWOLNHO\
V
V
V
V
$JULFXOWXUH
$WP'HSRVLWLRQ
7RWDO
3URE!
3URE!
8UEDQ'RPHVWLF
7RWDO3KRVSKRUXV
7KHPRVWOLNHO\YDOXHVIRU1DQG3ORDGVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH7KHSLFWXUHVKRZQLVWKDW
1 RULJLQDWHV SULPDULO\ IURP DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ ZKLOH LQ WKH FDVH RI 3 DWPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQDQGODQGUXQRIIDUHPRUHEDODQFHG&OHDUO\WKHXQFHUWDLQW\LQWHUYDOVGRQRWDOORZ
IRUDGHILQLWHFRQFOXVLRQRQWKHVHRXWFRPHVEXWZKDWLVVKRZQLVWKDWERWKVRXUFHVRIQXWULHQWV
GHILQLWHO\SOD\DVLJQLILFDQWUROHLQWKHODNH
VQXWULHQWEDODQFH
3KRVSKRURXV
1LWURJHQ
'RPHVWLF
'HSRVLWLRQ
$JULFXOWXUH
.HQ\D
'HSRVLWLRQ
8JDQGD
5ZDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
$JULFXOWXUH
'RPHVWLF
%XUXQGL
• )LJXUH 0RVWOLNHO\QXWULHQWORDGVE\VRXUFHDQGDJULFXOWXUDOORDGVE\FRXQWU\
7KHQXWULHQWEDODQFHRI/DNH9LFWRULD
$YHUDJHODNHZDWHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIPJOIRU1DQGPJOIRU3ZKHUHDSSOLHG
EDVHG RQ UHSRUWHG VDPSOLQJ VWXGLHV IURP *RSKHQ HW DO DQG /HKPDQ DQG %UDQVWUDWRU
&RPELQHGZLWKDODNHYROXPH9RINPDQDYHUDJHGHSWK+RIPDULYHU
RXWIORZ4RXWRINP\.LWH3LSHUHWDOWKHQXWULHQWLQSXW
:$ZDVFDOFXODWHG7KHQHWVHWWOLQJYHORFLW\ZDVFDOFXODWHGE\DSSO\LQJ Y V$ U66$&$ZLWK
U6 UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH VHGLPHQWDWLRQ UDWH >JP\@ DQG 6$ WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI QXWULHQW $ LQ WKH
VHGLPHQW6$>PJJ@+HFN\UHSRUWVYDOXHVIRUU6DQG6$WDNHQIURPDVLQJOHVHGLPHQW
FRUHVDPSOHRI/DNH9LFWRULD7KHUHVXOWLQJVHWWOLQJYHORFLWLHVDUHP\IRUERWK1DQG3
&KDSWHU
7KH UHVXOWLQJ :$ LV DQG W\ IRU 1 DQG 3 UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,Q VSLWH RI GDWD
OLPLWDWLRQVVSHFLILFDOO\ZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHVHWWOLQJYHORFLW\ZKLFKLVEDVHGRQDVLQJOHVHGLPHQW
FRUHVDPSOHWKHRXWFRPHRIWKLVVLPSOHQXWULHQWEDODQFHDVVHVVPHQWSURYLGHVDJRRGLGHDRI
WKH RUGHU RI PDJQLWXGH RI WKH WRWDO QXWULHQWV ORDG WR /DNH 9LFWRULD ,WV UHVXOWV DUH ZHOO LQ
FRUUHVSRQGHQFHZLWKWKHUHVXOWVIURPWKHSROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDVVHVVPHQW
'LVFXVVLRQ
7KLV SDSHU SUHVHQWV D PHWKRGRORJ\ IRU UDSLG DVVHVVPHQWV RI VRXUFHV RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ
HODERUDWLQJ RQ JHQHUDOO\ DSSOLHG DVVHVVPHQW WHFKQLTXHV 7KH PHWKRGRORJ\ KDV SURYHQ WR EH
HIIHFWLYHLQWKHFDVHRI/DNH9LFWRULDZKHUHGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHVFDUFLW\REMHFWDPRUHGHWDLOHG
DQGDFFXUDWHDVVHVVPHQW7KHHIIHFWVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQGDWDKDYHEHHQHYDOXDWHGE\XVLQJDQ
HUURU DQDO\VLV DV SURSRVHG E\ 5HFNKRZ DQG 6LPSVRQ 7KH XVH RI SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV
IXUWKHUPRUHQRWRQO\UHILQHVWKHPHWKRGEXWDOVRSURYLGHVLQVLJKWLQWRWKHSRWHQWLDOUHGXFWLRQ
RI ZDVWH ORDGV E\ DUWLILFLDO DQG QDWXUDO WUHDWPHQW SURFHVVHV $OWKRXJK ZHDNQHVV LQ GDWD DQG
DVVRFLDWHGXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQUHVXOWVGRQRWDOZD\VDOORZDEVROXWHFRQFOXVLRQVWKHRXWFRPHRIWKH
DVVHVVPHQW IRUP D XVHIXO EDVLV IRU WKH HYDOXDWLRQ RI VWUDWHJLF SROLF\ RSWLRQV DQG IRU
LGHQWLILFDWLRQRIDUHDVUHTXLULQJIXUWKHUUHVHDUFK
7KH RXWFRPH RI WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD DVVHVVPHQW GHWHUPLQHV GRPHVWLF SROOXWLRQ DV RSSRVHG WR
LQGXVWULHVDVWKHPDMRUVRXUFHRI%2'ORDGVDQGWKH.HQ\DQSDUWRIWKHODNHDVLWVODUJHVW
FRQWULEXWRU 5HGXFWLRQ RI %2' ORDGV RIWHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI ZDWHUERUQH
GLVHDVHVVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHWKURXJKEHWWHUFRQWURORYHUGRPHVWLFVRXUFHV,WZDVFDOFXODWHG
WKDWWKURXJKHIILFLHQWPDQDJHPHQWRIH[LVWLQJWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVRQO\%2'ORDGVLQ.HQ\D
FRXOGEHUHGXFHGE\2IWKHLQGXVWULHVEUHZHULHVVXJDUFDQHIDFWRULHVDQGVRDSDQGRLO
IDFWRULHV GLVSOD\ WKH ODUJHVW ORDG DQG ZRXOG WKHUHIRUH GHVHUYH PRVW DWWHQWLRQ LQ WHUPV RI
FRQWUROPHDVXUHV
1XWULHQWORDGVWRWKHODNHDUHDVVRFLDWHGPDLQO\ZLWKDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDQGODQGUXQRII
WRJHWKHUDFFRXQWLQJIRUDSSUR[LPDWHO\RI3DQGRI1LQSXWLQWRWKHODNH'RPHVWLF
LQSXWVDUHQHJOLJLEOH,QWKHFDVHRI1DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQLVPRVWSUREDEO\LQH[FHVVRYHU
ODQGUXQRIIQRWHYHQPHQWLRQLQJWKHREVHUYHGKLJKQLWURJHQIL[DWLRQUDWHV+HFN\7KLV
FRQFOXVLRQ FRXSOHG ZLWK WKH VXJJHVWHG 1 OLPLWDWLRQ LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD %RRWVPD DQG +HFN\
/HKPDQ HW DO FRUUHVSRQGV ZLWK WKH REVHUYHG LQFUHDVH LQ FKORURSK\OOD
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DQG DOJDO EORRPV GXULQJ UDLQ\ VHDVRQV ZKLFK FDQ RQO\ SDUWO\ EH OLQNHG WR
QXWULHQWXSVXUJHIURPVHGLPHQWV2FKXPEDDQG.LEDDUD,QWKHFDVHRI3UXQRIIDQG
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ DUH PRUH EDODQFHG DOWKRXJK UHSRUWHG KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI 3 LQ
UDLQZDWHURQWKHVKRUHVRI/DNH9LFWRULD%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\,&5$)6FKHUHQ
9LVVHU PDNH VXVSHFW D ODUJHU FRQWULEXWLRQ RI DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ WR WKH 3
EDODQFH$QWKURSRJHQLFLQIOXHQFHVLQWKHDUHDVXFKDVIRUHVWEXUQLQJDQGLQFUHDVHGGXVWGXHWR
VRLOHURVLRQKDYHEHHQOLDVHGWRWKLVSKHQRPHQRQ%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\6FKHUHQ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
,QVSLWHRIWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVUHPDLQLQJWKHDVVHVVPHQWDOORZVIRUFHUWDLQPDQDJHPHQWRSWLRQV
FRXQWHUDFWLQJ WKH DSSDUHQW LQFUHDVLQJ QXWULHQW LQSXW LQWR /DNH 9LFWRULD WR EH GHILQHG ,Q
SULQFLSDOWKHVDPHKXPDQDFWLYLWLHVDUHDWWKHEDVHRIWKHSUREOHP7KHLQFUHDVLQJSRSXODWLRQ
SUHVVXUHLQWKHUHJLRQFDXVHVDKLJKUDWHRIODQGFOHDULQJIRUFXOWLYDWLRQDQGIRUHVWEXUQLQJIRU
WKLV SXUSRVH DV ZHOO DV IRU SURYLVLRQ RI ELRPDVV IRU KRXVHKROG EXUQLQJ 7RJHWKHU ZLWK
XQVXVWDLQDEOHODQGXVHSUDFWLFHVWKHUHVXOWVDUHLQFUHDVHGVRLOHURVLRQDQGQXWULHQWODQGUXQRII
ZLWKIRUHVWEXUQLQJKDYLQJDVDGLUHFWHIIHFWDOVRLWVLQIOXHQFHRQWKHDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQRI
QXWULHQWV $SDUW IURP D FRQWURO RYHU SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK RIWHQ GLIILFXOW WR UHDOLVH SROLFLHV
VKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHGLUHFWHGDWDQLQWURGXFWLRQRIVXVWDLQDEOHODQGXVHSUDFWLFHVDQGDFRQWURO
RYHUIRUHVWEXUQLQJWZRDVSHFWVZKLFKLQIDFWDUHDWWKHFRUHRIDQ\VXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQW
SURJUDP ,PSURYHG DJULFXOWXUDO SUDFWLFHV ZRXOG QRWRQO\HQVXUHIRRGVXSSO\WRWKHJURZLQJ
SRSXODWLRQIRUQRZDQGLQWKHIXWXUHEXWDOVRFRXQWHUDFWWKHVRLOHURVLRQDQGODQGUXQRIIDV
ZHOO DV GHFUHDVH WKH QHHG IRU IRUHVW FOHDULQJ ZLWK LWV KHUH UHSRUWHG LQIOXHQFHV RQ WKH
HFRV\VWHP
)RU IXWXUH UHVHDUFK SDUDPHWHUV RI KLJKHVW XQFHUWDLQW\ UHPDLQ SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV IRU ODQG
UXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ)XUWKHULQGHSWKVWXG\RQWKHVHWRSLFVDQGLQVSHFLILFDOVR
WKHIDFWRUVLQIOXHQFLQJWKHLULQWHQVLWLHVZRXOGDOORZIRUDILQHWXQLQJRIPDQDJHPHQWRSWLRQV
IRU SUHVHUYDWLRQ DQG UHKDELOLWDWLRQ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD
V VR KLJKO\ YDOXHG EXW QRZ SUHVVXULVHG
HFRV\VWHP
&KDSWHU
$VVHVVPHQWRISROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFFLUFXPVWDQFHVUHODWHG
WRWKHHXWURSKLFDWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD
3$6FKHUHQ90LUDPER$0/HPPHQV)--DQVVHQ<..DWLPD3URFHHGLQJVRI
WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD 6\PSRVLXP LQ .DPSDOD 8JDQGD 0D\ 5HSULQWHG ZLWK
SHUPLVVLRQZLWKPLQRUHGLWRULDOFKDQJHV
$EVWUDFW
$SROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDVVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULDUHYHDOHGWKDWDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDQGODQG
UXQRII DFFRXQW IRU PRUH WKHQ RI SKRVSKRURXV DQG QLWURJHQ LQSXW 7KH LQFUHDVH LQ
HXWURSKLFDWLRQLVSUREDEO\GXHWRDQLQFUHDVHLQQXWULHQWIOX[YLDWKHVHDYHQXHVDVDUHVXOWRI
LQFUHDVHGKXPDQDFWLYLWLHV%2'ORDGLQJLVSUHGRPLQDQWO\IURPGRPHVWLFVRXUFHV$VRFLR
HFRQRPLF DVVHVVPHQW LQGLFDWHG WKDW UDSLG SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK LV DW WKH URRW RI WKH
SUREOHPUHYHDOLQJLWVHOILQLLQFUHDVLQJVRLOHURVLRQQXWULHQWUXQRIIDQGOHDNDJHWRVXUIDFH
ZDWHUVDVDUHVXOWRIXQVXVWDLQDEOHODQGH[SORLWDWLRQIRUDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQRYHUJUD]LQJ
DQG GHIRUHVWDWLRQ IRU ILUHZRRG DQG FRQVWUXFWLRQ PDWHULDO DQG LL LQFUHDVLQJ UHOHDVH WR WKH
DWPRVSKHUHRIQXWULHQWVIURPELRPDVVEXUQLQJDQGFRQVHTXHQWGHSRVLWLRQWRVXUIDFHZDWHUV
/DNH0DQDJHPHQW6WUDWHJLHVVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHGLUHFWHGDWVXVWDLQDEOHODQGXVHSUDFWLFHVWKH
LQWURGXFWLRQRIKLJKHIILFLHQF\VWRYHVDQGFRQWURORIIRUHVWEXUQLQJ
,QWURGXFWLRQ
,QWKHODVWIHZGHFDGHV/DNH9LFWRULDKDVXQGHUJRQHODUJHFKHPLFDODQGELRORJLFDOFKDQJHVDV
DUHVXOWRIJURZLQJKXPDQLQWHUIHUHQFH1H[WWRLPSDFWVIURPRYHUILVKLQJDQGWKHLQWURGXFWLRQ
RIH[RWLFILVKVSHFLHVSROOXWLRQIURPGRPHVWLFLQGXVWULDODQGDJULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHVKDVOHDGWR
DGHWHULRUDWLRQRIZDWHUTXDOLW\FKDUDFWHULVHGE\DOJDOEORRPV2FKXPEDDQG.LEDDUD
SHULRGLF PDVVLYH ILVK PRUWDOLW\ FDXVHG E\ R[\JHQ GHSOHWLRQ +HFN\ HW DO 2FKXPED
DQG ZLGHVSUHDG ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV 7KLV SDSHU VXPPDULVHV WKH UHVXOWV RI DQ
DVVHVVPHQW RI SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV LQ WKH ODNH¶V FDWFKPHQW DUHD DQG HODERUDWHV RQ WKH VRFLR
HFRQRPLFSDUDPHWHUVDWWKHFRUHRIWKHSUREOHP5HIHUHQFH\HDUIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWLV
0HWKRGRORJ\
7KH DVVHVVPHQW PDNHV XVH RI WKH VFDWWHUHG GDWD DYDLODEOH DSSO\LQJ D VWHS DSSURDFK IRU
WUDQVODWLRQRIWKLVGDWDLQWRUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVIRUSROOXWLRQFRQWURODSSURDFKHV
$ $TXDOLWDWLYHVFUHHQLQJVWDJHZKLFKLQFOXGHVDQDVVHVVPHQWRIUHOHYDQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
RI WKH ODNH¶V FDWFKPHQW DUHD LQ RUGHU WR GHWHUPLQH WKH PRVW UHOHYDQW SDUDPHWHUV IRU
DVVHVVPHQW
% $ TXDQWLWDWLYH SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV DVVHVVPHQW EDVHG RQ ZKDW LV RIWHQ UHIHUUHG WR DV
µUDSLG DVVHVVPHQW¶ PHWKRG (FRQRPRSRXORV 6FKHUHQ HW DO DSSO\LQJSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVWRLQFRUSRUDWHWKHHIIHFWVRIµQDWXUDO¶ULYHUVDQGZHWODQGV
DQG µHQIRUFHG¶ WUHDWPHQW SODQWV SXULILFDWLRQ DQG DQ HUURU DQDO\VLV WR HYDOXDWH WKH
UHOLDELOLW\RIUHVXOWV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
& $Q DVVHVVPHQW RI IRUFLQJ IXQFWLRQV LQYROYLQJ QXWULHQW EDODQFH DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF
DVVHVVPHQWV
'HWDLOV RI WKH PHWKRGRORJ\ DQG DVVHVVPHQW KDYH EHHQ UHSRUWHG HOVHZKHUH 6FKHUHQ HW DO
E,QYLHZRIWKHSUHYDLOLQJRUJDQLFSROOXWLRQWKHUHVXOWVSUHVHQWHGDUHOLPLWHGWRWKUHH
SROOXWLRQSDUDPHWHUV7KH%2'ORDGDVDQLQGLFDWRUIRULQGXVWULDODQGGRPHVWLFSROOXWLRQORDG
WR QHDUVKRUH ZDWHUV RIWHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV DQG QLWURJHQ DQG
SKRVSKRUXVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKHXWURSKLFDWLRQ
5HVXOWV
5HVXOWVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVVHFWLRQVXPPDULVHEULHIO\WKHPDLQRXWFRPHVRIDSROOXWLRQVRXUFHV
DVVHVVPHQW RI /DNH 9LFWRULD 6FKHUHQ HW DO E 7DEOH SUHVHQWV DQ RYHUYLHZ RI
GRPHVWLFLQGXVWULDODQGDJULFXOWXUDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULDFDWFKPHQWDUHDXVHG
DVEDVHOLQHGDWDIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQW
• 7DEOH 'RPHVWLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULDFDWFKPHQWDUHD9DOXHVEHWZHHQ
EUDFNHWVUHSUHVHQWQXPEHURIWRZQV6RXUFH6FKHUHQHWDOE
7RWDOSRSXODWLRQ
>SHRSOH@
.HQ\D
8UEDQ3RSXODWLRQ>SHRSOH@
6HZHUHG
8QVHZHUHG
8JDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
5ZDQGD
%XUXQGL
7RWDO
• 7DEOH (VWLPDWHGSURGXFWLRQRIPDMRULQGXVWULHVLQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDRI/DNH9LFWRULD
E\FRXQWU\DQGLQGXVWULDOVXEVHFWRU6RXUFH6FKHUHQHWDOE
,6,&
,QGXVWU\
6ODXJKWHU+RXVHV
'DLU\)DFWRULHV
)LVK)DFWRULHV
9HJHWDEOH2LO5HILQHULHV
6XJDU)DFWRULHV
'LVWLOOHULHV
%UHZHULHV
%RWWOHULHV
&RWWRQ0LOOV
/HDWKHU7DQQHULHV
3DSHU0LOOV
6RDS)DFWRULHV
6KDUHGSURGXFWLRQRIPDMRUIDFWRULHV>W\@
QXPEHURIPDMRUIDFWRULHVEHWZHHQEUDFNHWV
.HQ\D
8JDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH $JULFXOWXUDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULDFDWFKPHQWDUHD6RXUFH
6FKHUHQHWDOE
&DWFKPHQWODQGDUHD>KD@
FXOWLYDWHG
QRQ
FXOWLYDWHG
WRWDO
/LYHVWRFNSRSXODWLRQ>KHDGV@ )HUWLOL]HUXVH>W\U@
&DWWOH
6KHHS
*RDWV
&KLFNHQ
1
32
.HQ\D
8JDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
5ZDQGD
%XUXQGL
7RWDO
'RPHVWLF SROOXWLRQ $W DQ DSSUR[LPDWH SRSXODWLRQ RI PLOOLRQ WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD
UHJLRQLVRQHRIWKHPRVWGHQVHO\SRSXODWHGDUHDVRI$IULFD$YHUDJHSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLV
LQPRVWSDUWVEXWRYHULQPRVWRIWKHODUJHUWRZQVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQOLYHVLQ
ODUJHO\XQVHZHUHGXUEDQVHWWOHPHQWV
,QGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQ,QGXVWU\LVFRQFHQWUDWHGDURXQGWKHODUJHUODNHERUGHUWRZQV.DPSDOD
LQ8JDQGD0ZDQ]DDQG0XVRPDLQ7DQ]DQLDDQG.LVXPXLQ.HQ\DZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRI
ODUJHVXJDUIDFWRULHVLQ.HQ\DORFDWHGPRUHLQODQG0XFKRI8JDQGDQHIIOXHQWVGUDLQWKURXJK
ZHWODQGV EHIRUH UHDFKLQJ WKH ODNH :KLOH LQ 7DQ]DQLD DQG 8JDQGD LQGXVWULDO ZDVWHZDWHU
WUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVDUHJHQHUDOO\DEVHQWPDQ\IDFWRULHVLQ.HQ\DKDYHIDFLOLWLHV)HZLQGXVWULHV
DUH IXUWKHUPRUH FRQQHFWHG WR DQ XUEDQ VHZDJH DQG WUHDWPHQW V\VWHP 7UHDWPHQW HIILFLHQFLHV
DUHJHQHUDOO\ORZ
/DQGUXQRII7KHUHDUHPDQ\GHQVHO\FXOWLYDWHGDUHDVLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDEDVLQHVSHFLDOO\LQ
.HQ\D5ZDQGDDQG%XUXQGL,PSRUWDQWVWDSOHFURSVDUHPDL]HDQGEDQDQDVZKLOHWKHPDLQ
FDVK FURSV DUH VXJDUFDQH FRIIHH DQG WHD )HUWLOLVHU XVH LV YHU\ OLPLWHG ZKHUHDV OLYHVWRFN
EUHHGLQJLVH[WHQVLYH
%2'ORDGLQJHVWLPDWHV±$YHUDJHHVWLPDWHG%2'ORDGVIRUGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOSRLQW
VRXUFHV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH 7KH HVWLPDWHG ORDGV ZHUH FRUUHFWHG IRU SXULILFDWLRQ LQ
WUHDWPHQW SODQWV ULYHUV DQG ZHWODQGV %DVHG RQ DQ HUURU DQDO\VLV LW FRXOG EH FRQILUPHG WKDW
GRPHVWLFSROOXWLRQDFFRXQWVIRUDSSUR[LPDWHO\RI%2'ORDGRI8JDQGD
VGRPHVWLF
%2'ORDGRULJLQDWHVIURPLWVFDSLWDO.DPSDODZKLOHLQ.HQ\DRULJLQDWHVIURP.LVXPX
2IWKHLQGXVWULHVEUHZHULHVVXJDUFDQHIDFWRULHVDQGVRDSDQGRLOIDFWRULHVGLVSOD\WKHODUJHVW
SROOXWLRQ ORDGV $QDO\VLV RI UHVXOWV IRU .HQ\D VKRZHG WKDW ORDGV FRXOG EH KDOYHG LI SUHVHQW
WUHDWPHQWSODQWVZRXOGSHUIRUPRSWLPDOO\
1DQG3ORDGLQJHVWLPDWHV±$YHUDJHHVWLPDWHG1DQG3ORDGVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH
7RWDODQQXDOQXWULHQWORDGZDVHVWLPDWHGDWW\IRU1DQGW\IRU3,WPD\EH
FRQFOXGHGWKDWODQGUXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDUHWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWQXWULHQWVRXUFHV
DFFRXQWLQJ IRU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RI 3 DQG RI 1 LQSXW 1 RULJLQDWHV SULPDULO\ IURP
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ ZKLOH LQ WKH FDVH RI 3 DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ DQG ODQGUXQRII DUH
PRUHEDODQFHG'RPHVWLFZDVWHSOD\VRQO\DPLQRUUROHDVDQXWULHQWVRXUFH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
,QG XV WULD O
%2' >WRQ\H DU@
' RP HV WLF
. HQ\D
8JDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
• )LJXUH 0RVWOLNHO\%2'ORDGVWR/DNH9LFWRULD
3KRVSKRURXV
1LWURJHQ
'RPHVWLF
'HSRVLWLRQ
$JULFXOWXUH
.HQ\D
'HSRVLWLRQ
8JDQGD
5ZDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
$JULFXOWXUH
'RPHVWLF
%XUXQGL
• )LJXUH 0RVWOLNHO\QXWULHQWORDGVE\VRXUFHDQGDJULFXOWXUDOORDGVE\FRXQWU\GHSRVLWLRQ DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDJULFXOWXUH ODQGUXQRII
$ NH\ RXWFRPH RI WKH DERYHSUHVHQWHG DVVHVVPHQW LVWKDWQXWULHQWVDQGWKXVHXWURSKLFDWLRQ
RULJLQDWHSULPDULO\IURPODQGUXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ,QWKHFDVHRI1DWPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQLVLQH[FHVVRYHUODQGUXQRII5HSRUWHGKLJKQLWURJHQIL[DWLRQUDWHV+HFN\
ZRXOGIXUWKHUPRUHFRQWULEXWHWRWKLV7KLVFRQFOXVLRQFRXSOHGZLWKWKHVXJJHVWHG1OLPLWDWLRQ
LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD %RRWVPD DQG +HFN\ /HKPDQ HW DO FRUUHVSRQGV ZLWK WKH
REVHUYHGLQFUHDVHLQFKORURSK\OODFRQFHQWUDWLRQDQGDOJDOEORRPVGXULQJUDLQ\VHDVRQVZKLFK
FDQRQO\SDUWO\EHOLQNHGWRQXWULHQWXSVXUJHIURPVHGLPHQWV2FKXPEDDQG.LEDDUD
$ERYHSUHVHQWHGHVWLPDWLRQVIRU3IURPGHSRVLWLRQKDYHEHHQEDVHGRQGDWDIRU/DNH0DODZL
6FKHUHQHWDOELQWKHDEVHQFHRIUHOLDEOHGDWDRQ/DNH9LFWRULD+RZHYHURQWKHEDVLV
RI WKH UHSRUWHG KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI 1DQG3LQUDLQZDWHUDWWKHODNHVKRUHV%RRWVPDDQG
+HFN\,&5$)RIWHQOLDVHGWRIRUHVWEXUQLQJLQWKHDUHDDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
PD\EHVXVSHFWHGWRSOD\DQHYHQPRUHSURPLQHQWUROHLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDQXWULHQWEDODQFH
$WPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ DQG ODQG UXQRII KDYLQJ EHHQ GHILQHG DV WKH SULQFLSDO VRXUFHV RI
QXWULHQWVWKHTXHVWLRQUHPDLQVZKDWLVDWWKHFRUHRIWKHVHDSSDUHQWO\KLJKQXWULHQWVLQSXWV$
VFKHPDWLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIVRFLRHFRQRPLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDWWKHFRUHRIWKHSROOXWLRQSUREOHP
LV SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH +XPDQ LQIOXHQFHV RQ WKH ODNH¶V HFRV\VWHP DUH SULQFLSDOO\
GHWHUPLQHGE\WKHKLJKSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLQWKHUHJLRQDYHUDJLQJDWLQLWVHOIFRQWUROOHG
E\YDULRXVFXOWXUDODQGHFRQRPLFIDFWRUVLQGXFLQJODUJHKRXVHKROGVL]HV
&KDSWHU
7KHUHODWHGSUHVVXUHRQQDWXUHGLVFORVHVLQYDULRXVDVSHFWVRIZKLFKWKHIROORZLQJDUHPRVW
UHOHYDQWLQWHUPVRIWKHSULQFLSDOVRXUFHVRIQXWULHQWV
,QFUHDVLQJODQGUXQRIIGXHWRVRLOHURVLRQDVDUHVXOWRIXQVXVWDLQDEOHDQGJURZLQJODQG
H[SORLWDWLRQIRUDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQDQGGHIRUHVWDWLRQIRUILUHZRRGDQGFRQVWUXFWLRQ
PDWHULDO
,QFUHDVLQJ UHOHDVH WR DQG GHSRVLWLRQ IURP WKH DWPRVSKHUH RI QXWULHQWV IURP ELRPDVV
EXUQLQJ
• )LJXUH 6FKHPDWLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIVRFLRHFRQRPLFFLUFXPVWDQFHVUHODWHGWRLQFUHDVLQJ
QXWULHQWLQSXWVLQWR/DNH9LFWRULDKK KRXVHKROG
6RLO(URVLRQ7KHLQFUHDVHLQFXOWLYDWHGODQGLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDFDWFKPHQWDUHDIROORZVWKH
UDSLG SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK WUHQG ,QHIILFLHQW WUDGLWLRQDO FXOWLYDWLRQ PHWKRGV SUHYDLO 7HFKQLFDO
NQRZOHGJHLVOLPLWHGDQGWKHXVHRIIHUWLOLVHUVDQGSHVWLFLGHVLQLWVHOIDSRVLWLYHHIIHFWLQWHUPV
RIQXWULHQWOHDFKLQJDQGUXQRIILVYHU\OLPLWHG7KHODWWHULVPDLQO\DUHVXOWRIHFRQRPLFDQG
ORJLVWLFDO FRQVWUDLQWV WR WKH SUHYDLOLQJ VPDOOVFDOH IDUPHUV EXW DOVR RI SRRU DZDUHQHVV
)XUWKHUPRUHRQO\SDUWRIOLYHVWRFNPDQXUHDUULYHVRQDJULFXOWXUDOILHOGVDQGZKDWDUULYHVLV
ODUJHO\LQVXIILFLHQWWRIHUWLOLVHWKHODQG7DEOHSURYLGHVHVWLPDWHVIRUWKHDQQXDOSURGXFWLRQ
RIPDQXUH$VVXPHGLVDQDYHUDJHSURGXFWLRQRINJRIGU\PDQXUHSHUOLYHVWRFNXQLWRQH
KHDGRIFDWWOHRUILYHKHDGVRIVKHHSRUJRDWVRIZKLFKNJLVGURSSHGLQWKHµNUDDO¶'U\
PDQXUHLVDVVXPHGWRFRQWDLQ13DQG.%XGHOPDQHWDO7DNLQJ
WKDWDQDYHUDJHRINJKDÂ\RI1LVQHHGHGWRVXEVWDQWLDOO\LQFUHDVHFURS\LHOGVLWPD\EH
FRQFOXGHG WKDW OHVV WKDQ RI WKH FXOWLYDWHG ODQG LQ WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD UHJLRQ FRXOG EH
IHUWLOLVHGIURPPDQXUH&RQVHTXHQWO\DJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQLVLQHIILFLHQWDQG\LHOGVDUHSRRU
LQFUHDVLQJ WKH GHPDQG IRU PRUH ODQG FXOWLYDWLRQ ,Q WKH DEVHQFH RI µWHFKQRORJLFDO¶ FKDQJHV
SURGXFWLRQ LQFUHDVLQJ PHDVXUHV WKH FOHDULQJ DQG EXUQLQJ RI WKH QDWXUDO VRLOSURWHFWLQJ
FRYHULQJVRIVDYDQQDKIRUHVWVDQGZRRGODQGVIRUFXOWLYDWLRQUHDVRQVZLOOFRQWLQXH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
• 7DEOH 0DQXUHIURPOLYHVWRFNLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDUHJLRQ
/LYHVWRFN
8QLWV
>KHDG@
0DQXUHLQ
NUDDO
>W\@
&XOWLYDWHG
DUHD
>KD@
)HUWLOL]LQJFRQWHQW
>NJKDÂ\@
RI1
UHFRPPHQGHG
1
3
.
.HQ\D
8JDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
5ZDQGD
%XUXQGL
$YHUDJH
/LYHVWRFNIXUWKHUPRUHSOD\VDQLPSRUWDQWUROHWRIRRGVHFXULW\LQWKHUHJLRQ$VDVVHVVHGE\
0HHUWHQV DQG /XSHMD WKH FDUU\LQJ FDSDFLW\ RI JUD]LQJ DUHD LQ WKH /DNH ]RQH YDULHV
IURPWRKHFWDUHVSHUOLYHVWRFNXQLW2QVXFKEDVLVLWFDQEHGHGXFWHGIURP7DEOHWKDW
VXVWDLQDEOHJUD]LQJUDWHVDUHH[FHHGHGE\DIDFWRURIRUPRUHLQ0ZDQ]DUHJLRQW\SLFDOIRU
PXFKRIWKH/DNH]RQH$VJUD]LQJDUHDLVLQVXIILFLHQWOLYHVWRFNNHHSHUVWHQGWRSHQHWUDWHQRQ
JUD]LQJDUHDVLQFOXGLQJIRUHVWVDQGZRRGODQGV7DQ]DQLD)RUHVWU\$FWLRQ3ODQD$OVR
XQGHU SUHVVXUH RI IRGGHU VKRUWDJH OLYHVWRFN IHHGV RQ FURS UHVLGXHV ZKLFK ZRXOG RWKHUZLVH
KDYHEHHQOHIWWRVHUYHDVKXPXVRQDJULFXOWXUDOODQG
• 7DEOH *UD]LQJ±RYHUJUD]LQJLQWKH0ZDQ]DUHJLRQVHDVRQ7DQ]DQLD
'LVWULFW
1XPEHURI
FDWWOH
>KHDG@
1XPEHURI
JRDWVDQGVKHHS
>KHDG@
*UD]LQJDUHD
>KD@
$YHUDJH
JUD]LQJDUHD
SHU/8>KD@
0ZDQ]DUXUDO
8NHUHZH
0DJX
6HQJHUHPD
*HLWD
.ZLPED
0ZDQ]DUHJLRQ
6RXUFH0HHUWHQVHWDO
&KDSWHU
$W WKH VDPH WLPH IRUHVWV DQG ZRRGODQGV DUH XQGHU SUHVVXUH IURP DQ LQFUHDVLQJ GHPDQG IRU
IXHOZRRGRQZKLFKDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIWKHSRSXODWLRQGHSHQGV7DQ]DQLD)RUHVWU\$FWLRQ
3ODQ D E F DQG 0DDJL HW DO HVWLPDWH WKDW DQQXDO IXHO ZRRG
FRQVXPSWLRQIRUWKH.DJHUD0DUDDQG0ZDQ]DUHJLRQDUHUHVSHFWLYHO\DQGPSHU
FDSLWD RU WKH HTXLYDOHQW LQ FKDUFRDO ZKLOH FRQVXPSWLRQ IRU FRQVWUXFWLRQ SXUSRVHV LV
HVWLPDWHGDWPSHUFDSLWDDQGIRULQGXVWULDODFWLYLWLHVPSHUFDSLWD%DVHGRQ
WKHVHHVWLPDWHV7DEOHSURYLGHVDQDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHGHIRUHVWDWLRQUDWHLQWKH7DQ]DQLDQ
SDUW RI WKH /DNH 7KH VLWXDWLRQ LV DODUPLQJ HVSHFLDOO\ LQ 0ZDQ]D ZKHUH GHPDQG IRU ZRRG
H[FHHGVVXVWDLQDEOHH[SORLWDWLRQUDWHVE\PRUHWKDQRURIIRUHVWUHVRXUFHVDQQXDOO\
)RUWXQDWHO\SDUWRIWKLVJDSLVILOOHGWKURXJKWKHXVHRIDOWHUQDWLYHVRXUFHVRIHQHUJ\VXFKDV
FRZ GXQJ DQG DJULFXOWXUDO UHVLGXHV DQG WKURXJK VXSSOLHV IURP SDVWXUHV DQG JUD]LQJ DUHDV
&RQVHTXHQWO\WKHDFWXDOGHIRUHVWDWLRQUDWHZDVHVWLPDWHGDWDSSUR[LPDWHO\
• 7DEOH :RRGFRQVXPSWLRQDQGGHIRUHVWDWLRQLQWKH7DQ]DQLDQSDUWRIWKH/DNH=RQH
3URGXFWLYHIRUHVWSODQWDWLRQVDQG
ZRRGODQGV
$UHD
>KD@
.DJHUD
3RWHQWLDO
>P@
$OORZDEOHFXW
>P\@
'HPDQG
&RQVXPSWLRQ
>P\@
3RWHQWLDO
GHIRUHVWDWLRQ
'HILFLW
>@
5DWH
>KD\@
5DWH
>@
0DUD
0ZDQ]D
5HJLRQ
$OOWKHDERYHGHYHORSPHQWVKDYHOHGWRLQFUHDVLQJVRLOHURVLRQZLWKWKHORVVRIVRLOIHUWLOLW\
LQFUHDVLQJDVWKURXJKDYLFLRXVFLUFOHWKHSUHVVXUHRQODQG
%LRPDVV%XUQLQJ(VWLPDWLRQVRIWKHTXDQWLWLHVRIQXWULHQWVUHOHDVHGWRWKHDWPRVSKHUHIURP
ELRPDVVEXUQLQJZHUHPDGHRQWKHEDVLVRIDQDSSURDFKE\WKH,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ
&OLPDWH &KDQJH ,3&&2(&' 7DEOH VKRZV WKDW 1 UHOHDVHG IURP KRXVHKROG
ELRPDVV EXUQLQJ IRUPV D VXEVWDQWLDO FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH DWPRVSKHULF ORDGLQJ 7KH LQGXVWULDO
FRQWULEXWLRQZDVIRXQGWREHYHU\OLPLWHG/DQGFOHDULQJDQGVODVKDQGEXUQSUDFWLFHVLQWKH
DJULFXOWXUDO VHFWRU ZRXOG KRZHYHU EH H[SHFWHG WR VXEVWDQWLDOO\ DGG WR 1 HPLVVLRQV 3
HPLVVLRQVZRXOGEHPRUHGLIILFXOWWRHVWLPDWHLQWKHDEVHQFHRIDQ\VWDEOHJDVHRXVIRUPIRU3
EXW SDUWLFXODWH UHOHDVHV IURP VPRNH DQG GXVW ZRXOG SUREDEO\ DOVR DGG VXEVWDQWLDOO\ WR WKH
DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQRI3
6RXUFH7DQ]DQLD)RUHVWU\$FWLRQ3ODQDEFDQG0DDJLHWDO
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
• 7DEOH 1LWURJHQHPLVVLRQVIURPKRXVHKROGELRPDVVEXUQLQJLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDUHJLRQ
&RQVXPSWLRQ>NJGÂFDS@
&DUERQUHOHDVH
1LWURJHQUHOHDVH
8UEDQ
5XUDO
)UDFWLRQ
7RWDO
>W\@
)XHOZRRG
&KDUFRDOFRQVXPSWLRQ
&KDUFRDOSURGXFWLRQ
&URSUHVLGXH
&DWWOHGXQJ
7RWDO
1&
7RWDO
>W\@
'LVFXVVLRQ
7KH RXWFRPH RI WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD DVVHVVPHQW GHWHUPLQHV GRPHVWLF SROOXWLRQ DV RSSRVHG WR
LQGXVWULHVDVWKHPDMRUVRXUFHRI%2'ORDGVDQGWKH.HQ\DQSDUWRIWKHODNHDVLWVODUJHVW
FRQWULEXWRU 5HGXFWLRQ RI %2' ORDGV RIWHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI ZDWHUERUQH
GLVHDVHV VKRXOG WKHUHIRUH EH WKURXJK EHWWHU FRQWURO RYHU GRPHVWLF VRXUFHV 7KURXJK WKH
HIILFLHQW PDQDJHPHQW RI H[LVWLQJ WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV DORQH %2' ORDGV LQ .HQ\D FRXOG EH
UHGXFHGE\2IWKHLQGXVWULHVEUHZHULHVVXJDUFDQHIDFWRULHVDQGVRDSDQGRLOIDFWRULHV
GLVSOD\WKHODUJHVWORDGGHVHUYLQJPRVWDWWHQWLRQLQWHUPVRIFRQWUROPHDVXUHV
1XWULHQWORDGVWRWKHODNHDUHDVVRFLDWHGPDLQO\ZLWKDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDQGODQGUXQRII
WRJHWKHUDFFRXQWLQJIRUDSSUR[LPDWHO\RI3DQGRI1LQSXWLQWRWKHODNH'RPHVWLF
LQSXWVDUHQHJOLJLEOH7KHLQFUHDVLQJSRSXODWLRQSUHVVXUHLQWKHUHJLRQLQGXFHVDKLJKUDWHRI
ODQG FOHDULQJ IRU FXOWLYDWLRQ )RUHVWODQG LV FOHDUHG IRU FXOWLYDWLRQ DV ZHOO DV IRU SURYLVLRQ RI
KRXVHKROGELRPDVV:LWKXQVXVWDLQDEOHODQGXVHSUDFWLFHVSUHYDLOLQJWKHUHVXOWVDUHLQFUHDVHG
VRLOHURVLRQDQGQXWULHQWODQGUXQRII%LRPDVVDQGIRUHVWEXUQLQJKDYHDVDGLUHFWHIIHFWDOVRLWV
LQIOXHQFHRQWKHDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQRIQXWULHQWV
$SDUW IURP D FRQWURO RYHU SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK RIWHQ GLIILFXOW WR UHDOLVH /DNH 0DQDJHPHQW
6WUDWHJLHVVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHGLUHFWHGDWDQLQWURGXFWLRQRIVXVWDLQDEOHODQGXVHSUDFWLFHVWKH
LQWURGXFWLRQRIKLJKHIILFLHQF\VWRYHVDQGDFRQWURORYHUIRUHVWEXUQLQJ,PSURYHGDJULFXOWXUDO
SUDFWLFHVZRXOGQRWRQO\HQVXUHIRRGVXSSO\WRWKHJURZLQJSRSXODWLRQEXWDOVRFRXQWHUDFWWKH
VRLOHURVLRQDQGODQGUXQRIIDQGGHFUHDVHWKHQHHGIRUIRUHVWFOHDULQJ
)RU IXWXUH UHVHDUFK SDUDPHWHUV RI KLJKHVW XQFHUWDLQW\ UHPDLQ SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV IRU ODQG
UXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ)XUWKHULQGHSWKVWXG\RQWKHVHWRSLFVDQGLQVSHFLILFDOVR
WKHIDFWRUVLQIOXHQFLQJWKHLULQWHQVLWLHVZRXOGDOORZIRUDILQHWXQLQJRIPDQDJHPHQWRSWLRQV
IRUSUHVHUYDWLRQDQGUHKDELOLWDWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD
VSUHVVXULVHGHFRV\VWHP
&KDSWHU
)LQDODQDO\VLVRIUHVXOWV
7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQVGLVFXVVDQGDQDO\VHWKHUHVXOWVIURPWKHUHVHDUFKSXEOLFDWLRQVSUHVHQWHG
LQ VHFWLRQV DQG 7KH DQDO\VLV LQFOXGHV L WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI DQ RYHUYLHZ RI
FDXVHV DQG HIIHFWV UHODWLRQVKLSV UHODWHG WR WKH ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ SUREOHP RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH
'36,5IUDPHZRUNLLDSHUVSHFWLYHRIIXWXUHGHYHORSPHQWVZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHSROOXWLRQRIWKH
ODNHXQGHUDµGRQRWKLQJ¶VFHQDULRDQGLLLWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRISRVVLEOHUHVSRQVHVWUDWHJLHV
&DXVHVDQGHIIHFWVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQ
7KH SXEOLFDWLRQV SUHVHQWHG LQ VHFWLRQV DQG H[SORUH WKH VWDWH RI HQYLURQPHQWDO
SROOXWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULDLWVFDXVHVGULYLQJIRUFHVDQGSUHVVXUHVDQGLPSDFWV7KHUHVXOWVRI
WKH DVVHVVPHQW DUH VXPPDUL]HG LQ )LJXUH ZKLFK VKRZV WKH LQWULFDWH LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV
EHWZHHQWKHGULYLQJIRUFHVSUHVVXUHVVWDWHDQGLPSDFWVDVSHFWVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
)URP WKH DVVHVVPHQW SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH WKH HIIHFWV RI SROOXWLRQ ORDGV UHVXOWLQJ IURP
DQWKURSRJHQLFDFWLYLWLHVDUHHYLGHQW7KHPDLQGULYLQJIRUFHVUHODWHWRSRRUOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQV
DQGWUDGLWLRQDOYDOXHVVXSSRUWLQJODUJHKRXVHKROGVL]HZKLFKLQWXUQOHDGWRUDSLGSRSXODWLRQ
JURZWK DQG XUEDQLVDWLRQ DQG HQVXLQJ LQWHQVLILHG LQGXVWULDO DQG DJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLWLHV ,Q
FRPELQDWLRQZLWKWKHSUHYDOHQFHRIWUDGLWLRQDOLQHIILFLHQWIDUPLQJWHFKQLTXHVDQGPHDQVRI
OLYLQJWKHSRSXODWLRQLQFUHDVHUHVXOWVPRUHRYHULQLQFUHDVHGDQGXQVXVWDLQDEOHQDWXUDOUHVRXUFH
XWLOL]DWLRQLQWHUPVRIODQGFXOWLYDWLRQRYHUJUD]LQJDQGIRUHVWH[SORLWDWLRQ7KHFRQVHTXHQFHV
DUHLQFUHDVHGVRLOHURVLRQPDQXUHSURGXFWLRQDQGIHUWLOL]HUXVHUHVXOWLQJLQQXWULHQWUXQRIIDQG
OHDFKLQJDVZHOODVDQLQFUHDVHLQDWPRVSKHULFSDUWLFXODWHPDWHULDOGXHWRGXVWIRUHVWEXUQLQJ
DQG EXUQLQJ RI UHVLGXDO FURS PDWHULDO ,QHIILFLHQW ELRPDVV EXUQLQJ PDLQO\ IRU KRXVHKROG
XVDJH PRUHRYHU DGGV WR WKLV DWPRVSKHULF ORDG 7KH SUHVVXUHV UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKHVH GULYLQJ
IRUFHVFRQFHUQ%2'ORDGVODUJHO\IURPGRPHVWLFZDVWHZDWHUDQGQXWULHQW1DQG3
ORDGVPDLQO\WKURXJKDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDQGODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJ
+RZHYHUQH[WWRWKHVHDQWKURSRJHQLFFDXVHVWKHUHDUHDQXPEHURIQDWXUDOHYHQWVWKDWKDYH
FRQWULEXWHGWRWKHFKDQJHVREVHUYHGLQWKHODNH¶VFRQGLWLRQ)LUVWRIDOOWKHUHKDVEHHQDUDSLG
LQYDVLRQ RI ZDWHU K\DFLQWK (LFKRUQLD FUDVVLSHV LQWR WKH ODNH VLQFH LWV ILUVW REVHUYDWLRQ LQ
LQ WKH (QWHEEH 8JDQGD DUHD RI /DNH 9LFWRULD $FFRUGLQJ WR 0DWDJL WKLV
SHUQLFLRXVZHHG¶VRULJLQKDVEHHQWUDFHGWR5ZDQGDYLDWKHULYHU.DJHUD%\WKHODWWHU
ULYHUZDVGHOLYHULQJWRQQHVPRQWKVRIZDWHUK\DFLQWKLQWR/DNH9LFWRULD,QWKHODNHLWVHOI
WKHZHHGUHSURGXFHVUDSLGO\GRXEOLQJDSSUR[LPDWHO\HYHU\GD\V%\ZDWHUK\DFLQWK
FRYHUHG DERXW RI WKH VKRUHOLQH RI /DNH 9LFWRULD RQ WKH 8JDQGD VLGH DQG KDG VSUHDG
ZLGHO\WRRWKHUSDUWVRIWKHODNH$SDUWIURPGHYDVWDWLQJGLUHFWVRFLRHFRQRPLFLPSDFWVVXFKDV
LPSDLUPHQWRIILVKHULHVZDWHUDEVWUDFWLRQDQGK\GURSRZHUSURGXFWLRQDW-LQMD8JDQGDWKH
ZHHGDIIHFWVWKHZDWHUTXDOLW\DQR[LFFRQGLWLRQVUHVXOWLQJIURPGHFRPSRVLQJZDWHUK\DFLQWKV
KDYH UHSRUWHGO\ OHG WR PDVVLYH ILVK PRUWDOLW\ 0RUHRYHU SK\VLFDO FRYHU E\ ZDWHU K\DFLQWK
PDWVUHGXFHVSHQHWUDWLRQRIOLJKWLQWRWKHZDWHUDVZHOODVPL[LQJRIWKHZDWHUFROXPQWKHUHE\
DIIHFWLQJ QXWULHQW G\QDPLFV DQG FUHDWLQJ QHZ KDELWDWV ZKLFK OHDG WR FKDQJHV LQ HFRV\VWHP
FRPSRVLWLRQ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
&KDSWHU
)RUHVWH[SORLWDWLRQIRUILUHZRRG
OHDGLQJWRDQQXDOGHIRUHVWDWLRQ
,QWURGXFWLRQRIH[RWLFILVKVSHFLHV
1LOH3HUFKDQG1LOH7LODSLD
,QYDVLRQRIZDWHUK\DFLQWKVLQWRWKH
ODNHWKURXJKLWVWULEXWDULHV
&KDQJHGFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQV
2YHUJUD]LQJH[FHHGLQJVXVWDLQDEOH
UDWHE\DIDFWRURI
,QFUHDVHGODQGFXOWLYDWLRQDQG
LQWHQVLILHGDJULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHV
7UDGLWLRQDOLQHIILFLHQWIDUPLQJ
WHFKQLTXHVDQGPHDQVRIOLYLQJ
+LJKUDWHRIELRPDVVEXUQLQJPDLQO\
IURPKRXVHKROGVRXUFHV
5DSLGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQRIWKHFRDVWDO
]RQHPDLQO\DJURLQGXVWU\
µ0RYHWRWKHFLWLHV¶UHVXOWLQJLQKLJK
XUEDQJURZWKUDWH
5DSLGSRSXODWLRQJURZWK
3RRUOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQGWUDGLWLRQDO
YDOXHVVXSSRUWODUJHKRXVHKROGVL]H
6RFLRHFRQRPLFUHVRXUFHVDQG
EHQHILWVRIWKHFRDVWDO]RQH
'ULYLQJ)RUFHV
3UHVVXUHRQHQGHPLFVSHFLHVDQG
HFRV\VWHP
5HGXFHGOLJKWSHQHWUDWLRQDQGPL[LQJ
GXHWRK\DFLQWKPDWVRQODNHVXUIDFH
'HFRPSRVLWLRQRIK\DFLQWKVUHVXOWLQJ
LQQDWXUDORUJDQLFPDWHULDOORDG
,QFUHDVHGPDQXUHSURGXFWLRQDQG
IHUWLOL]HUXVH
,QFUHDVHGVRLOHURVLRQ
,QFUHDVHGQXWULHQWODQGUXQRIIDQG
OHDFKLQJ
,QFUHDVHG1HPLVVLRQVDQGGXVW
SDUWLFXODWH1DQG3IURPODQG
RI1DQGRI3IURPODQG
UXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJ
RI1DQGRI3ORDGVIURP
DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
1RQSRLQWVRXUFHV
RI1DQGRI3ORDGVWRODNH
IURPGRPHVWLFVRXUFHV1DQG3
ORDGVIURPLQGXVWU\DUHQHJOLJLEOH
,QFUHDVLQJ%2'ORDGVIURPGRPHVWLF
DQGLQGXVWULDOVRXUFHV
PDLQO\IURPXUEDQFHQWHUV
3RLQWVRXUFHV
3UHVVXUHV
'DPDJHWRH[LVWLQJDQGFUHDWLRQRI
QHZKDELWDWV
'RPLQDQFHRI1LOH3HUFKDQG7LODSLD
DQGGLPLQXWLRQRIHQGHPLFVSHFLHV
&KDQJHVLQHFRV\VWHPFRPSRVLWLRQ
&KDQJHVLQWKHQXWULHQWF\FOH
,QFUHDVLQJ1DQG3FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
&KDQJHVLQDOJDOSRSXODWLRQ
,QWHQVLILHGDOJDOJURZWKUHVXOWLQJLQ
HXWURSKLFDWLRQ
'HFUHDVHGHFRV\VWHPKHDOWKWR
VXVWDLQOLYLQJUHVRXUFHV
'HFUHDVHGWUDQVSDUHQF\RIZDWHUGXH
WRDOJDOJURZWK
,QFUHDVHGR[\JHQFRQVXPSWLRQGXH
WRPLQHUDOL]DWLRQDQGGHFRPSRVLWLRQ
%UHHGLQJJURXQGIRUEDFWHULDDQG
SDUDVLWHV
2[\JHQGHSOHWLRQ
+6IRUPDWLRQ
0DVVLYHILVKNLOOVGXULQJVHDVRQDO
XSZHOOLQJV
6WDWH
•
)LJXUH 6FKHPDWLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRI
WKH/DNH9LFWRULDHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQ
FDXVHHIIHFWFKDLQ
/RVVRIELRGLYHUVLW\YDOXH
/RVVRIZDWHUSURYLVLRQYDOXH
+HDOWKLPSDFWVZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHV
VXFKDVGLDUUKHDELOKDU]LDVW\SKRLG
G\VHQWHU\DQGFKROHUD
/RVVRIUHFUHDWLRQDODQGWRXULVP
YDOXH
/RVVRIDPHQLW\VWHQFKDQGYLVXDO
LPSDFWV
'HFUHDVLQJWUDGLWLRQDOILVKUHVRXUFHV
,PSDFW
)XUWKHUPRUH
FOLPDWLF YDULDWLRQV LQ WKH (DVW
$IULFDQUHJLRQKDYHFDXVHG FKDQJHV LQ WKH ODNH¶V
K\GURORJLFDO
EDODQFH
)LJXUH $QQXDO IOXFWXDWLRQVLQODNHOHYHODV
D UHVXOW RI YDULDWLRQV LQ UDLQIDOOLQWKHUHJLRQRFFXU
KLVWRULFDOO\ LQ DGGLWLRQ WR ORQJWHUPIOXFWXDWLRQVRYHU
\HDUF\FOHV+RZHYHU LQ ODWH WKLV SDWWHUQ
FKDQJHG FRQVSLFXRXVO\
%HWZHHQ DQG WKHODNHOHYHOURVHE\P
DERYH WKH ORQJWHUP
• )LJXUH /HYHOVPRI/DNH9LFWRULDEHWZHHQDQG3LSHUHWDO
DYHUDJH ZDWHU OHYHO DQG
P DERYH WKH SUHYLRXV
UHFRUGHGKLJKHVWZDWHUOHYHORI.LWH7KHPRVWZLGHO\DFFHSWHGH[SODQDWLRQIRU
WKLV ULVH LQ ODNH OHYHO XVHV HYLGHQFH IURP UHJLRQDO UDLQIDOO UHFRUGV WKDW UDLQIDOO LQ WKH ODNH
V
FDWFKPHQWDUHDKDVLQFUHDVHGE\VHYHUDOSHUFHQWVLQFHWKHHDUO\V.LWHDQG
3LSHU HW DO 6HQH DQG 3OLQVWRQ $SDUW IURP FKDQJHV WR WKH K\GURORJLFDO
EDODQFH DQG WKHUHZLWK DOVR WKH VXEVWDQFH PDVV EDODQFH IRU WKH ODNH LW LV OLNHO\ WKDW WKH
LQFUHDVHG UDLQIDOO KDV DOVR FDXVHG DQ LQFUHDVH LQ ODQG UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ IURP VRLOV )RU
H[DPSOHKHDY\UDLQVVXFKDVWKRVHLQWKHODWHUSDUWRIDVVRFLDWHGZLWKµ(O1LxR¶KDYH
UHSRUWHGO\UHVXOWHGLQIORRGLQJRIULYHUVDQGLQXQGDWLRQRIIDUPODQGVZKLFKFRQWULEXWHODUJH
ORDGVRIVHGLPHQWVDQGQXWULHQWVWRWKHODNH/XQJ¶D\LDHWDO
)LQDOO\DVDGULYLQJIRUFHRIDVHPLQDWXUDONLQGWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIH[RWLFILVKVSHFLHVLQWRWKH
ODNHKDVOHGWRSUHVVXUHVRQWKHHFRV\VWHPDQGUHVXOWHGLQGUDPDWLFFKDQJHVLQLWVFRPSRVLWLRQ
$ERXWWZRWKLUGVRIWKHHQGHPLFKDSORFKURPLQHFLFKOLGILVKHVKDYHGLVDSSHDUHGDORQJZLWKDQ
H[SORVLRQRIWKH1LOH3HUFK/DWHVQLORWLFXVZKLFKZDVLQWURGXFHGVRPH\HDUVDJR2WKHU
FKDQJHV LQ WKH ILVK FRPPXQLW\ RFFXUUHG ZLWK LQWURGXFWLRQV EHWZHHQ DQGRIQRQ
QDWLYH7LODSLDVLQSDUWLFXODUWKH1LOH7LODSLD2UHRFKURPLVQLORWLFXVZKLFKYLUWXDOO\UHSODFHG
HQGHPLF 7LODSLDV 7KHVH FKDQJHV LQ ILVK FRPPXQLW\ KDYH FDXVHG FKDQJHV LQ WKH FRPSOHWH
HFRV\VWHP7KHH[DFWQDWXUHDQGH[WHQGRIWKHVHFKDQJHVKDYHQRW\HWEHHQVWXGLHGLQGHSWK
EXWKDYHPRVWOLNHO\FDXVHGFRQVLGHUDEO\FKDQJHVLQWHUPVRIQXWULHQWDQGWURSKLFG\QDPLFVRI
WKHODNH%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\
7KHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKHEHIRUHGHVFULEHGGULYLQJIRUFHVDQGSUHVVXUHVUHSUHVHQWWKHPVHOYHVLQ
DQXPEHURIZD\V)LUVWRIDOOSUHVVXUHVIURPSRLQWDQGQRQSRLQWVRXUFHVUHVXOWLQLQFUHDVHG
QXWULHQW DQG %2' FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH ODNH 6HFRQGO\ LQFUHDVHG QXWULHQW ORDGV VWLPXODWH
SK\WRSODQNWRQSURGXFWLYLW\LQIOXHQFHGPRUHRYHUE\FKDQJHVLQWKHHFRV\VWHPDVDUHVXOWRIWKH
LQWURGXFWLRQDQGLQYDVLRQRIQHZVSHFLHVLQWRWKHODNH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
7KHPRVWPDUNHGFKDQJHLQWKHODNH¶VSK\WRSODQNWRQFRPPXQLW\LVDVKLIWWRZDUGV1IL[LQJ
EOXHJUHHQ DOJDH F\DQREDFWHULD %RRWVPD DQG +HFN\ *RSKHQ HW DO +HFN\
/XQJ¶D\LD HW DO 0XJLGGH 2FKXPED DQG .LEDDUD :KHUH WKH
SK\WRSODQNWRQ FRPPXQLW\ RULJLQDOO\ VKRZHG FOHDU VHDVRQDO VXFFHVVLRQV RI GLDWRPV
F\DQREDFWHULD DQG JUHHQ DOJDH DQG VHYHUDO RWKHU WD[D 7DOOLQJ LW LV QRZ SHUVLVWHQWO\
GRPLQDWHG E\ F\DQREDFWHULD D FRPPRQ IHDWXUH RI HXWURSKLF ODNHV %RRWVPD DQG +HFN\
$VLQYHVWLJDWHGE\+HFN\E\PHDQVRILQVLWXH[SHULPHQWDWLRQ1IL[DWLRQE\
F\DQREDFWHULD PD\ FRQWULEXWH VXEVWDQWLDO DPRXQWV RI 1 XS WR PPROPK DW LQ VLWX
FRQGLWLRQV $OWKRXJK QHLWKHU 1 QRU 3 LV VWURQJO\ OLPLWLQJ SK\WRSODQNWRQ LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD
DSSHDUV VOLJKWO\ GHILFLHQW LQ 1 WKLV LQFUHDVH LQ 1 IURP IL[DWLRQ E\ F\DQREDFWHULD FRXOG
WKHUHIRUH EH DQ LPSRUWDQW VWLPXOXV IRU DOJDO SURGXFWLRQ DQG WKHUHZLWK WKH OHYHO RI
HXWURSKLFDWLRQRIWKHODNH
,QGXFHGE\WKHVHFKDQJHVLQSK\WRSODQNWRQSRSXODWLRQLQFUHDVHGQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVKDYH
OHG WR KLJKHU SK\WRSODQNWRQ SURGXFWLYLW\ ZKLFK FDXVHV HXWURSKLFDWLRQ DQG D ORZHU OHYHO RI
WUDQVSDUHQF\RIWKHODNH7KLVSURFHVVRIHXWURSKLFDWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULDVWDUWHGDVHDUO\DVWKH
VDQGDFFHOHUDWHGLQWKHV%HHWRQ&KORURSK\OOFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDQLQGLFDWLRQ
RISK\WRSODQNWRQDEXQGDQFHDUHQRZDGD\VWKUHHWRILYHWLPHVJUHDWHUWKDQWKRVHREVHUYHGLQ
WKH V 8SRQ GHDWK WKH DOJDO ELRPDVV VHGLPHQWV WR WKH ERWWRP RI WKH ODNH ZKHUH WKH
HQVXLQJGHFRPSRVLWLRQSURFHVVHVOHDGVWRDQR[LFFRQGLWLRQV2QWKHVKRUHOLQHVDQGLQED\VRI
WKH ODNH WKH %2' ORDG IURP SRLQW VRXUFHV DQG IURP WKH GHFRPSRVLWLRQ RI ZDWHU K\DFLQWK
PRUHRYHU VWURQJO\ HQIRUFHV WKLV HIIHFW 7KH UHVXOWLQJ R[\JHQ GHSOHWLRQ FDXVHV PDVVLYH ILVK
PRUWDOLW\ VXFK DV UHSRUWHG E\ +HFN\ HW DO /XQJ¶D\LD HW DO DQG 2FKXPED
UHVXOWVLQ+6IRUPDWLRQDQGFUHDWHVDVXLWDEOHKDELWDWIRUEDFWHULDDQGSDUDVLWHV
7KHHYHQWXDOLPSDFWVRIWKHVHSURFHVVHVWRVRFLHW\LQFOXGHILUVWRIDOOGHFUHDVHGILVKUHVRXUFHV
DQGFKDQJHVLQILVKVWRFNFRPSRVLWLRQDQGGLVWULEXWLRQ7KHLPSDFWVDUHPRVWQRWDEOHLQWKH
ED\V DQG VKRUHOLQHV RI WKH ODNH ZKLFK DUH WKH DUHDV PRVW DIIHFWHG E\ SROOXWLRQ DQG RWKHU
FKDQJHV HJ ZDWHU K\DFLQWK DQG ZKLFK WUDGLWLRQDOO\ FRQVWLWXWH LPSRUWDQW ILVK KDELWDWV
)XUWKHUPRUH VWHQFK DV D UHVXOW RI +6 IRUPDWLRQ DQG ORVV RI YLVXDO DPHQLW\ GXH WR µGLUW\
ZDWHU¶DQGGHDGILVKUHGXFHWKHWUDGLWLRQDOO\KLJKUHFUHDWLRQDODQGWRXULVPYDOXHRIWKHODNH
7KH ZDWHUV LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH VKRUHOLQHV DQG ED\V SURYLGH PRUHRYHU DQ LQFUHDVLQJO\ VXLWDEOH
KDELWDW IRU EDFWHULDO DQG SDUDVLWLF FRPPXQLWLHV LQFOXGLQJ ZDWHUERUQH DQG LQVHFW GLVHDVH
YHFWRUVVXFKDVGLDUUKRHDELOKDU]LDVW\SKRLGG\VHQWHU\DQGFKROHUD7KHRYHUDOOZDWHUTXDOLW\
PDNHV LW XQVXLWDEOH IRU WKH SURYLVLRQ RI ZDWHU IRU FRQVXPSWLRQ LUULJDWLRQ DQG LQGXVWULDO
SURFHVVHV/DVWEXWQRWOHDVWWKHRULJLQDOO\YHU\KLJKELRGLYHUVLW\YDOXHRIWKHODNH%RRWVPD
DQG+HFN\*ROGVPLWKHWDO*RSKHQHWDO.DXIPDQ:LWWHHWDO
D E KDV EHHQ VHYHUHO\ GHFUHDVHG 7KH SULQFLSDO IDFWRU LQ WKLV PD\ EH WKH
LQWURGXFWLRQRIH[RWLFILVKVSHFLHV1LOH3HUFKDQG7LODSLDEXWWKHGHJHQHUDWHGZDWHUTXDOLW\
KDVSUREDEO\VWURQJO\FRQWULEXWHG
7KHSURFHVVRI1IL[DWLRQLVPRUHH[WHQVLYHO\GHVFULEHGLQ$QQH[
&KDSWHU
$SHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHIXWXUHVWDWHRISROOXWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ SUHVHQWHG LQ WKH SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQV LW PD\ EH FRQFOXGHG WKDW
FKDQJHVWRWKHODNH¶VFRQGLWLRQHYROYHUDSLGO\7KHSUHVHQWSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLQWKHUHJLRQLV
DQGJURZWKRISRSXODWLRQLQXUEDQFHQWUHVHYHQUDQJHVIURPWRDQQXDOO\7KHUH
DUHPDQ\SRVVLEOHVFHQDULRVIRUWKHIXUWKHUGHPRJUDSKLFHYROXWLRQLQWKHUHJLRQ)LJXUH
SUHVHQWVYDULRXVVFHQDULRVEDVHGXSRQSURJQRVHVE\,3&&IRU(DVW$IULFDFDOLEUDWHG
XSRQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH VSHFLILF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQ WKH UHJLRQ )XUWKHUPRUH D VFHQDULR RI
FRQWLQXRXVH[SRQHQWLDOJURZWKDWLVSUHVHQWHG,WLVKRZHYHUQRWHGWKDWVXFKH[SRQHQWLDO
JURZWKLVKLJKO\XQOLNHO\DQGRQO\SUHVHQWHGKHUHIRULOOXVWUDWLRQ
3RSXODWLRQLQFDWFKPHQWDUHD
([SRQHQWLDO
JURZWK
6FHQDULR$%
6FHQDULR$
6FHQDULR%
7LPH<HDU
• )LJXUH 3RSXODWLRQJURZWKLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDFDWFKPHQWDUHDDFFRUGLQJWRYDULRXVVFHQDULRV
EDVHGXSRQ,3&&
$VIROORZVIURP)LJXUHHYHQLQWKHLQWHUPHGLDWHVFHQDULRV$%DQG$WKHRYHUDOO
SRSXODWLRQ LQ WKH UHJLRQ ZRXOG LQFUHDVH IRXUIROG RYHU WKH SHULRG ,W LV WKHUHIRUH
FOHDUWKDWLQDQ\FDVHDUDSLGSRSXODWLRQLQFUHDVHZRXOGRFFXUDQGFRQVHTXHQWO\LPSRVHVPRUH
DQG PRUH SUHVVXUH RQ WKH ODNH DQG LWV VXUURXQGLQJV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH UDSLG SDFH RI
XUEDQLVDWLRQ ZLOO FDXVH DQ LQFUHDVLQJ IUDFWLRQ RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ WR OLYH LQ XUEDQ FHQWUHV
'HSHQGLQJRQWKHVFHQDULRDQGDVVXPLQJDQDYHUDJHXUEDQJURZWKWKHXUEDQIUDFWLRQ
ZRXOG LQFUHDVH IURP LQ WR VFHQDULR $% VFHQDULR $ RU VFHQDULR%LQ([SRQHQWLDOJURZWKZRXOGHYHQOHDGWRXUEDQLVDWLRQZKLOHWKLV
VKRXOGREYLRXVO\QRWEHFRQVLGHUHGDUHDOLVWLFVFHQDULR
7KLVLQYROYHVSURMHFWLQJWKHSRSXODWLRQJURZWKVFHQDULRVE\,3&&ZKLFKDUHEDVHGXSRQDQDYHUDJHIRUWKH
ZKROHRI(DVW$IULFDRQWKHUHODWLYHO\KLJKHUSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDUHJLRQ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHDYDLODEOHLQIRUPDWLRQDQGEHFDXVHRIWKHVSHFLILFQDWXUHRIWKHSROOXWLRQ
SUREOHPLWLVH[WUHPHO\GLIILFXOWWRSURYLGHDUHOLDEOHSHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHIXWXUHRUHYHQSDVW
VWDWHRIWKHODNHLQWHUPVRIHXWURSKLFDWLRQ7KLVLVGXHWRDQXPEHURIUHDVRQV
N +LVWRULFDO GDWD RQ QXWULHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH ODNH DUH VFDUFH DQG ZKHUH DYDLODEOH
LQFRPSOHWHDQGXQUHOLDEOH)RUH[DPSOH7DOOLQJDQG7DOOLQJDQG7DOOLQJ
UHSRUW GDWD IRU 121 RQO\ LQVWHDG RI WRWDO1 FRQFHQWUDWLRQV .QRZLQJ WKDW 121
DQGRWKHULQRUJDQLFIRUPVPDNHXSRQO\DVPDOOSRUWLRQRI1LQWKHZDWHUVXFKGDWDDUH
LQVXIILFLHQWIRUDQDQDO\VLVRIWKHRYHUDOO1EDODQFH&RQVHTXHQWO\SDVWWUHQGVFDQQRW
EHDGHTXDWHO\DVVHVVHG
N 7KHWZRPDLQGHWHUPLQDQWVRIQXWULHQWORDGVLQWRWKHODNHDUHDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
DQGODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJ$WSUHVHQWLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHVHVRXUFHVLVODUJHO\DEVHQW
)LUVWRIDOOLQIRUPDWLRQRQQXWULHQWVLQGU\GHSRVLWLRQOLNHO\DQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQWKH
ODNH¶VQXWULHQWEDODQFHLVFRPSOHWHO\XQDYDLODEOH0RUHRYHUGDWDRQQXWULHQWVLQZHW
GHSRVLWLRQ UDLQIDOO DUH VFDUFH DQG LQFRPSOHWH /DVWO\ ODQG UXQRII KDV QRW EHHQ
GHWHUPLQHG OHW DORQH GLVWLQJXLVKHG EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI ODQGXVH FURS ODQG
JUD]LQJODQGIRUHVWHWFLQWKHUHJLRQ
N 7KHUHDUHODUJHVKRUWFRPLQJVLQRXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHYDULRXVSURFHVVHVDWWKHEDVLV
RI WKH VWDWH RI HXWURSKLFDWLRQ RI WKH ODNH 7KH SUHVHQW VWDWH RI WKH ODNH LV GXH WR D
V\QHUJLVWLF HIIHFW RI YDULRXV GULYLQJ IRUFHV DQG SUHVVXUHV ERWK RI DQWKURSRJHQLF DQG
QDWXUDO QDWXUH 2XU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKHVH SURFHVVHV LV LQVXIILFLHQW IRU DQ\ UHOLDEOH
PRGHOOLQJ HIIRUW WR EH XQGHUWDNHQ $WWHPSWV WR VLPXODWH VRPH RI WKH NH\ HFRORJLFDO
SURFHVVHV LQ WKH ODNH KDYH EHHQ UHSRUWHG E\ 6FKHUHQ EXW UHVXOWHG LQ WKH
FRQFOXVLRQWKDWNQRZOHGJHDQGGDWDDWWKLVSRLQWRIWLPHGRQRWDOORZIRUVXFKPRGHOWR
EHGHYHORSHGZLWKDQ\UHOLDELOLW\
'HVSLWHWKHVHXQFHUWDLQWLHVDQLQGLFDWLYHµGRQRWKLQJ¶VFHQDULRFDQEHHVWDEOLVKHGEDVHGRQD
QXPEHURIDVVXPSWLRQV
3RSXODWLRQJURZWKLVWKHNH\IDFWRUGHWHUPLQLQJSROOXWLRQORDGV$VSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH
YDULRXV VFHQDULRV IRU IXWXUH SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK H[LVW )RU WKH SXUSRVH RI RXU
DQDO\VLVZHDSSOLHGDQLQWHUPHGLDWHVFHQDULREDVHGXSRQWKH,3&&%VFHQDULR,3&&
IRU(DVW$IULFD
7RWDO GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO SROOXWLRQ ORDG IURP XUEDQ FHQWUHV LV DVVXPHG WR EH
OLQHDUO\UHODWHGWRWKHWRWDOXUEDQSRSXODWLRQLHZKHQWKHXUEDQSRSXODWLRQGRXEOHV1
3 DQG %2' ORDGV ZRXOG DOVR GRXEOH ,W LV QRWHG WKDW WKLV DVVXPSWLRQ SUREDEO\
XQGHUHVWLPDWHV IXWXUH SROOXWLRQ ORDGV LQ YLHZ RI WKH H[SHFWHG LQFUHDVH LQ VWDQGDUG RI
OLYLQJ ,W LV KRZHYHU D JHQHUDOO\ DSSOLHG DVVXPSWLRQ IRU WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI XUEDQ
SROOXWLRQORDGVDVDSSOLHGIRUH[DPSOHE\.URH]HDQG6HLW]LQJHUDQG3HLHUOVHW
DO
$VVXPLQJDXWRQRPRXVJURZWKZLWKRXWSROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQPHDVXUHVSXWLQSODFH
&KDSWHU
1XWULHQW ODQG UXQRII WR ZDWHUFRXUVHV LV DVVXPHG OLQHDUO\ UHODWHG WR WKH RYHUDOO
SRSXODWLRQ VL]H IRU WKH FDWFKPHQW DUHD 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW ZLWK SRSXODWLRQ JURZLQJ
DSSUR[LPDWHO\ IRXUIROG RYHU WKH SHULRG DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFWLRQ ZLOO
DXJPHQWWRDQHTXDOH[WHQWZKHWKHUWKURXJKWKHFXOWLYDWLRQRIDGGLWLRQDODJULFXOWXUDO
JURXQGV RU WKURXJK WKH LQWHQVLILFDWLRQ HJ DSSOLFDWLRQ RI PRUH IHUWLOL]HUV DQG
SHVWLFLGHVRIH[LVWLQJSURGXFWLRQ$QDOWHUQDWLYHDSSURDFKLVSUHVHQWHGE\.URH]HDQG
6HLW]LQJHUZKRFDOFXODWHWKHLQFUHDVHLQUXQRIIRQWKHEDVLVRISURMHFWHGIHUWLOL]HU
XVH %DVHG RQ GDWD IURP 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV DQG %RXZPDQ WKH ODWWHU
DSSURDFKOHDGVWRDQLQFUHDVHRIRYHUWKHSHULRG7KHWZRDSSURDFKHV
WKHUHIRUHOHDGWRPRUHRUOHVVWKHVDPHUHVXOW
3URMHFWLRQVIRUWKHLQFUHDVHLQDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQZHUHWDNHQIURP6HLW]LQJHUDQG
.URH]H DQG .URH]H DQG 6HLW]LQJHU ZKR DVVXPH DQ LQFUHDVH LQ 1
GHSRVLWLRQLQWKHUHJLRQRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\RYHUWKHSHULRGWREDVHGRQ
PRGHOOLQJUHVXOWVXVLQJDWKUHHGLPHQVLRQDOJOREDODWPRVSKHULFPRGHOE\'HQWHQHUDQG
&UXW]HQ$VVXPLQJVXFKLQFUHDVH3GHSRVLWLRQZRXOGVXEVHTXHQWO\ULVHIURPDQ
HVWLPDWHGNJKDÂ\DWSUHVHQWWRNJKDÂ\LQDQG1GHSRVLWLRQIURP
NJKDÂ\WRDSSUR[LPDWHO\NJKDÂ\7KLVZRXOGEULQJQXWULHQWGHSRVLWLRQUDWHVXSWR
OHYHOVREVHUYHLQDUHDVRI(XURSHVXFKDVLQVRXWKHUQ8QLWHG.LQJGRP'HQPDUNDQG
WKH1HWKHUODQGVZKHUHWRWDO1GHSRVLWLRQUDQJHVEHWZHHQDQGNJKDÂ\DQGZKHUH
DVLPLODULQFUHDVHKDVRFFXUUHGRYHUWKHSDVWIHZGHFDGHV3LWFDLUQHWDO,WLV
QRWHGWKDWWKLVLQFUHDVHDSSURDFKHVWKHHVWLPDWHGSRSXODWLRQJURZWKEHWZHHQDQG
DFFRUGLQJWR,3&&VFHQDULR%ZKLFKLV&RQVLGHULQJWKDWDQLPSRUWDQW
SDUWRIQXWULHQWVLQWKHDWPRVSKHUHDUHDUHVXOWRIKXPDQDFWLYLWLHVOLNHELRPDVVEXUQLQJ
DQGODQGFOHDULQJWKLVDVVXPSWLRQVHHPVWKHUHIRUHQRWXQUHDOLVWLF
7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHVFHQDULRDQDO\VLVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH7KHDVVHVVPHQWGHPRQVWUDWHV
WKDW DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ LV OLNHO\ WR UHPDLQ WKH ODUJHVW VRXUFH RI 1 ZKLOH UXQRII DQG
OHDFKLQJ UHPDLQV WKH PDLQ VRXUFH RI 3 'RPHVWLF SRLQW VRXUFHV RI QXWULHQWV KRZHYHU JDLQ
LPSRUWDQFHLQFRPSDULVRQWRODQGUXQRIIDQGZLOOSRWHQWLDOO\RYHUWDNHUHVSHFWLYHO\ODQGUXQRII
DQG DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ LQ RUGHU RI LPSRUWDQFH $V VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH G WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQRI1DQG3LQWKHODNHLVFRQVHTXHQWO\H[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHE\DIDFWRURIQHDUO\
IRUERWKQXWULHQWV7KHODWWHUUHVXOWLVEDVHGRQPRGHOOLQJXVLQJWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHPRGHO
SUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQ$QLPSRUWDQWDVVXPSWLRQPDGHLQWKLVLVKRZHYHUWKDWWKHQHWORVV
UDWH .$ LQ (TXDWLRQ SDJH UHPDLQV FRQVWDQW ,W LV OLNHO\ WKRXJK WKDW WKLV UDWH ZLOO
FKDQJHZLWKLQFUHDVHGQXWULHQWORDGLQJDQGFRQVHTXHQWFKDQJHVLQELRPDVVFRQFHQWUDWLRQDQG
FRPSRVLWLRQ LQ WKH ODNH 7KH UHVXOWV SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH G VKRXOG WKHUHIRUH EH
FRQVLGHUHGDVLQGLFDWLYHRQO\
1RWHGLVWKDWHYHQLIWKHLQFUHDVHLQDWPRVSKHULFORDGVZRXOGEHVXEVWDQWLDOO\OHVVWKHQWKHDVVXPHGWKLVZRXOG
VWLOOEHWKHFDVH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
D
1ORDGW\
'HSRVLWLRQ
5XQRII
'RPHVWLF
5XQRII
'RPHVWLF
'HSRVLWLRQ
7LPH\HDU
F
%2'ORDGW\
'RPHVWLF
1PJO
1
,QGXVWULDO
3
G
7LPH\HDU
7LPH\HDU
3PJO
E
3ORDGW\
7LPH\HDU
• )LJXUH 7KHGRQRWKLQJVFHQDULRIRU/DNH9LFWRULDIRUWKHSHULRGD1ORDGW\
IURPGRPHVWLFSRLQWVRXUFHVODQGUXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQE3ORDGW\IURP
GRPHVWLFSRLQWVRXUFHVODQGUXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQF%2'ORDGW\IURPGRPHVWLF
DQGLQGXVWULDOSRLQWVRXUFHVDQGG$YHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI1DQG3PJOLQWKHODNHEDVHG
RQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHPRGHO(TXDWLRQSDJH
)LJXUH F IXUWKHUPRUH VKRZV D UDSLG LQFUHDVH LQ %2' ORDGV SUHVHQWHG DV WKH GD\
ELRORJLFDOR[\JHQGHPDQG%2'IURPERWKGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOSRLQWVRXUFHV7KHWRWDO
ORDG LV HVWLPDWHG WR LQFUHDVH E\ D IDFWRU RI HTXDO WR WKH XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK LQ WKH
UHJLRQ&RQVLGHULQJWKHSUHVHQWFRQGLWLRQRIWKHZDWHUTXDOLW\RIWKHODNHWKHHQRUPRXVORDGLQ
%2'1DQG3LVERXQGWRKDYHGLVDVWURXVHIIHFWVRQWKHODNHDQGLWVULSDULDQSRSXODWLRQ,WLV
WKHUHIRUH RI FUXFLDO LPSRUWDQFH WR GHYHORS DSSURSULDWH PDQDJHPHQW VWUDWHJLHV WR SUHYHQW
IXUWKHUSROOXWLRQRIWKHODNH$QHYDOXDWLRQRISRVVLEOHUHVSRQVHVWUDWHJLHVLVSUHVHQWHGLQWKH
IROORZLQJVHFWLRQ
,GHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV
(DFKRIWKHUHVHDUFKSXEOLFDWLRQVLQVHFWLRQVDQGFRQWDLQVUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVZLWK
UHJDUG WR DSSURSULDWH UHVSRQVHV DQG VWUDWHJLHV IRU WKH DEDWHPHQW RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ RI /DNH
9LFWRULD 7KH SURSRVHG PHDVXUHV DUH UHYLHZHG LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH OLJKW RI WKHLU
IHDVLELOLW\,QRUGHUWRGHILQHDFRPSUHKHQVLYHVHWRIUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVZHKDYHWRGLVWLQJXLVK
EHWZHHQWZRDVSHFWVRIWKHSROOXWLRQSUREOHP
S7KHSUREOHPRIHXWURSKLFDWLRQRIWKHODNHZKLFKDIIHFWVWKHODNHDVDZKROH
S7KHSUREOHPRIRUJDQLFZDVWHORDGVLQLQVKRUHDUHDVLQSDUWLFXODUQHDUXUEDQFHQWUHV
&KDSWHU
(XWURSKLFDWLRQ
(XWURSKLFDWLRQ DIIHFWV WKH ZDWHU ERG\ DV D ZKROH $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH DQDO\VLV SUHVHQWHG LQ
VHFWLRQWKHSUREOHPLVPDLQO\FDXVHGE\LQFUHDVHGQXWULHQWORDGVWRWKHODNHDOWKRXJK
FHUWDLQQDWXUDOFKDQJHVPD\KDYHFRQWULEXWHG7KHDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHSUHVHQWFRQGLWLRQRIWKH
ODNH DVVXPPDUL]HGLQ)LJXUHSDJHKDVUHYHDOHGWKDWWKHPDLQVRXUFHVRI1DQG3
ORDGV DUH ODQG UXQRII DQG DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ $W SUHVHQW WKHUHIRUH UHVSRQVH VWUDWHJLHV
VKRXOGDLPDWPDQDJLQJWKHVHVRXUFHV
$WWKHEDVLVRIWKHHXWURSKLFDWLRQSUREOHPWZRLPSRUWDQWLVVXHVFDQEHLGHQWLILHG
N 3RRUOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQGWUDGLWLRQDOYDOXHVVXSSRUWLQJODUJHKRXVHKROGVL]H
N 7UDGLWLRQDOIDUPLQJWHFKQLTXHVDQGPHDQVRIOLYLQJ
$VLWFRQFHUQVWKHILUVWLVVXHFRQWURORYHUSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLVRIWHQGLIILFXOWWRUHDOLVH,WLV
OLNHO\WKDWZLWKHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGDVDUHVXOWRILQFUHDVHGH[SRVXUHWRWKHRXWVLGHZRUOG
IDPLO\VL]HDQGSRSXODWLRQJURZWKOHYHOVZLOOVKULQN6SHFLILFDFWLRQVVXFKDVIDPLO\SODQQLQJ
GHYHORSPHQWSURJUDPVFRXOGKRZHYHUDFWLYHO\VWLPXODWHDQGVSHHGXSWKLVGHYHORSPHQW
$VLWFRQFHUQVWKHVHFRQGLVVXHVWUDWHJLHVVKRXOGILUVWRIDOOEHGLUHFWHGDWWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI
VXVWDLQDEOH ODQGXVH SUDFWLFHV LPSURYHG DJULFXOWXUDO SUDFWLFHV ZRXOG QRW RQO\ HQVXUH IRRG
VXSSO\WRWKHJURZLQJSRSXODWLRQEXWDOVRFRXQWHUDFWVRLOHURVLRQDQGODQGUXQRIIDVZHOODV
GHFUHDVH WKH QHHG IRU IRUHVW FOHDULQJ 1XWULHQW UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ FRXOG PRUHRYHU EH
GHFUHDVHGWKURXJKWKHUHSODQWDWLRQRIQXWULHQWFDSWXULQJYHJHWDWLRQRQWKHVKRUHOLQHVRIULYHUV
VWUHDPDQGWKHODNHLWVHOIZKLFKFUHDWHVDQDWXUDOEDUULHUIRUQXWULHQWIOX[WRWKHODNH)RUWKH
VDPHUHDVRQDWWHQWLRQVKRXOGEHJLYHQWRWKHSUHVHUYDWLRQRIWKHUHPDLQLQJIRUHVWLQWKHDUHD
DW6SHFLILFDWWHQWLRQVKRXOGPRUHRYHUEHJLYHQWRWKHSUHVHUYDWLRQRIZHWODQGVLQYLHZRIWKHLU
LPSRUWDQFHDVQDWXUDOQXWULHQWWUDSV$WPRVSKHULFHPLVVLRQRI1DQG3FRXOGIXUWKHUPRUHEH
UHGXFHGWKURXJKWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIKLJKHIILFLHQF\VWRYHVDQGDOWHUQDWLYHHQHUJ\VRXUFHVDV
ZHOODVFRQWURORYHUFXUUHQWODQGFOHDULQJEXUQLQJSUDFWLFHV
$OOWKHDERYHOLVWHGPHDVXUHVDUHDOUHDG\SDUWRIDJULFXOWXUDODQGUXUDOH[WHQVLRQDFWLYLWLHVLQ
WKH UHJLRQ 7KH\ DUH RIWHQ PDLQO\ D PDWWHU RI DZDUHQHVV FUHDWLRQ VLQFH WKH RXWFRPH LV RI
EHQHILWQRWRQO\WRWKHHQYLURQPHQWEXWDOVRWRDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLYLW\DQGWKHUHZLWKWRWKH
SHRSOH WKHPVHOYHV ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI VXFK PHDVXUHV ZRXOG WKHUHIRUH PHUHO\ UHTXLUH D
UHIRFXVLQJDQGLQWHQVLILFDWLRQRIDZDUHQHVVFUHDWLRQDFWLYLWLHV0RUHRYHURQDSROLF\OHYHOWKH
DXWKRULWLHV VKRXOG XQGHUWDNH DSSURSULDWH SODQQLQJ RI IXUWKHU ODQG FXOWLYDWLRQ DQG IRUHVW
FOHDULQJDVZHOODVIRUWKHUHYHJHWDWLRQRIVRPHDOUHDG\FXOWLYDWHGDUHDV$OORIWKHVHPHDVXUHV
DUHUHDVRQDEO\ORZLQFRVWDQGDUHWKHUHIRUHGHHPHGIHDVLEOH
,WLVQRWHGWKDWH[SHFWHGIXWXUHGHYHORSPHQWVDVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUHSUHGLFWDQLQFUHDVLQJ
LPSRUWDQFHRIQXWULHQWVIURPSRLQWVRXUFHV,QWKHIXWXUHWKHUHIRUHVWUDWHJLHVIRUWKHUHGXFWLRQ
RIVXFKORDGVZLOOQHHGWREHLPSOHPHQWHG7KHREYLRXVUHVSRQVHDFWLRQZRXOGEHWRFUHDWH
DSSURSULDWH PHDQV RI ZDVWHZDWHU FROOHFWLRQ DQG WUHDWPHQW ERWK IRU GRPHVWLF ZDVWH DQG
LQGXVWULHV7KHLVVXHRISRLQWVRXUFHSROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQLVIXUWKHUGLVFXVVHGLQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
2UJDQLFZDVWHORDGV
:LWKUHJDUGWRWKHSUREOHPRIRUJDQLFZDVWHORDGVWRLQVKRUHZDWHUVLWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDW
/DNH 9LFWRULD OLNH PDQ\ WURSLFDO ODNHV KDV LQVKRUH ZDWHUV WKDW KDYH PXFK GLIIHUHQW
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV IURP WKH RIIVKRUH ZDWHUV 7KLV LV EHFDXVH RI WKH LQWUXVLRQ RI ZDWHUV WKURXJK
ULYHUVVXUIDFHUXQRIILQIORZVRIGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOHIIOXHQWVDQGVWURQJHUPL[LQJGXHWR
VKDOORZ GHSWKV &RQVHTXHQWO\ SHUWXUEDWLRQV LQ WKH LQVKRUH DUHDV RIWHQ PDQLIHVW LQ GLIIHUHQW
ZD\VDQGWRDGLIIHUHQWH[WHQWIURPWKHZDWHUVKHGDVDZKROH7KLVFRXQWVIRUWKHGLUHFWHIIHFWV
RI%2'ZDVWHLQLQVKRUHDUHDVDVZHOODVIRUHXWURSKLFDWLRQSURFHVVHV$FFRUGLQJWR+HFN\
WKHVKDOORZHULQVKRUHDUHDVKDYHKLJKHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIQXWULHQWVDQGVXSSRUWKLJKHU
SK\WRSODQNWRQSURGXFWLYLW\WKDQRIIVKRUH7KLVLVSURYHQIRUH[DPSOHE\0XJLGGHZKR
UHSRUWVKLJKHUSKRWRV\QWKHWLFUDWHVDQGFKORURSK\OODFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQLQVKRUHZDWHUVWKDQLQ
WKHRIIVKRUHSDUWRIWKH8JDQGDQVHFWLRQRIWKHODNH
7KH HIIHFWV RI KLJK ORFDOL]HG %2' ORDGV DQG D KLJK OHYHO RI HXWURSKLFDWLRQ ZRUN LQ D
FXPXODWLYHPDQQHU%2'ZDVWHUHVXOWVLQDKLJKR[\JHQGHPDQGRIWHQYHU\ORFDOL]HGDWLWV
SRLQWVRIGLVFKDUJH'HDWKDQGVXEVHTXHQWVHGLPHQWDWLRQRIDOJDOPRUHRYHUOHDGVWRR[\JHQ
GHPDQGLQJ PLQHUDOL]DWLRQ SURFHVVHV 7KLV SURFHVV LV IXUWKHU VWUHQJWKHQHG E\ GHDWK DQG
VXEVHTXHQWGHFRPSRVLWLRQRIZDWHUK\DFLQWKZKLFKKDVVSUHDGVWURQJO\LQLQVKRUHDUHDV$SDUW
IURPDPHQLW\LPSDFWVVWHQFKYLVXDOWKLVHQRUPRXVORDGRIRUJDQLFGHDGPDWHULDOFUHDWHVD
VXLWDEOHKDELWDWIRUEDFWHULDDQGSDUDVLWHGHYHORSPHQWDQGFRQVHTXHQWO\FDXVHVDULVHLQZDWHU
ERUQH DQG LQVHFWERUQH GLVHDVHV 0RUHRYHU DV D UHVXOW RI PL[LQJ GXULQJ XSZHOOLQJV WKH
FRPSOHWHZDWHUFROXPQPD\EHWHPSRUDULO\GHR[\JHQLVHGUHVXOWLQJLQPDVVLYHILVKPRUWDOLW\
DV DOUHDG\ UHSRUWHG IRU /DNH 9LFWRULD E\ +HFN\ HW DO /XQJ¶D\LD HW DO DQG
2FKXPED
7KHSUREOHPRILQVKRUHRUJDQLFZDVWHORDGVLVWKHUHIRUHFOHDUO\GLIIHUHQWDQGSUREDEO\PRUH
DFXWHWKDQWKHJHQHUDOHXWURSKLFDWLRQSUREOHP$VIRUWKHHXWURSKLFDWLRQSUREOHPWKHSULQFLSDO
GULYLQJIRUFHLVUHODWHGWRDUDSLGSRSXODWLRQLQFUHDVHLQGXFHGE\SRRUOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQG
WUDGLWLRQDOYDOXHVZKLFKVXSSRUWODUJHKRXVHKROGVL]H$VDUJXHGEHIRUHLWLVOLNHO\WKDWZLWK
HFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGDVDUHVXOWRILQFUHDVHGH[SRVXUHWRWKHRXWVLGHZRUOGIDPLO\VL]HDQG
SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK OHYHOV ZLOO VKULQN 6SHFLILF DFWLRQV VXFK DV IDPLO\ SODQQLQJ GHYHORSPHQW
SURJUDPVFRXOGKRZHYHUDFWLYHO\VWLPXODWHDQGVSHHGXSWKLVGHYHORSPHQW
)XUWKHUPRUHDWWKHµGULYLQJIRUFHV¶OHYHOVWUDWHJLHVFRXOGEHXQGHUWDNHQLQWHUPVRISODQQLQJ
RILQGXVWULDOGHYHORSPHQW$WSUHVHQWPRVWGHYHORSPHQWWDNHVSODFHGLUHFWO\RQWKHFRDVWOLQHV
7KURXJKWKHGHVLJQDWLQJRIPRUHDSSURSULDWHDUHDVIRULQGXVWULDOHVWDEOLVKPHQWVHJLQGXVWULDO
]RQHVLQGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQFRXOGEHEHWWHUFRQWUROOHGDQGPDQDJHG
,Q WHUPV RI QDWXUDO GULYLQJ IRUFHV PRVW LPSRUWDQWO\ WKH ZDWHU K\DFLQWK SUREOHP WKH WKUHH
FRXQWULHVERUGHULQJWKHODNHDUHDOUHDG\DFWLYHO\SXUVXLQJVROXWLRQV7KHUHDUHSULQFLSDOO\WZR
PHWKRGV PHFKDQLFDO µKDUYHVWLQJ¶ RU WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ELRORJLFDO DQG FKHPLFDO WHFKQLTXHV
7KHPHFKDQLFDOPHWKRGKDVDOUHDG\EHHQWULHGLQ/DNH9LFWRULD,WEULQJVZLWKLWKRZHYHUD
KD]DUG RI IXUWKHU VSUHDGLQJ RI WKH VHHGV RI WKH SODQW DQG UHQGHUV HQRUPRXV KHDSV RI ZDVWH
PDWHULDO&KHPLFDOWHFKQLTXHVDUHIDVWHUEXWWKHILVKLQJLQGXVWU\LVDIUDLGRISRVVLEOHSRLVRQLQJ
HIIHFWV%LRORJLFDOWUHDWPHQWXVLQJDFHUWDLQVSHFLHVRIEHHWOHLVFXUUHQWO\EHLQJLQYHVWLJDWHGLQ
.HQ\D 7KHUH LV KRZHYHU FRQFHUQ WKDW WKH EHHWOH PLJKW DOVR DIIHFW RWKHU YHJHWDWLRQ
([SHULPHQWV LQ RWKHU UHJLRQV KDYH KRZHYHU EHHQ VXFFHVVIXO :KDWHYHU WHFKQLTXH ZLOO EH
DSSOLHGLWLVFOHDUWKDWWKHSUREOHPRIWKHZDWHUK\DFLQWKGHVHUYHVPXFKDWWHQWLRQ
&KDSWHU
)URPDQHQJLQHHULQJSHUVSHFWLYHSRLQWVRXUFHVRISROOXWLRQGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOZDVWHDUH
IXUWKHUPRUHUHODWLYHO\HDVLO\DEDWDEOHDWWKHµSUHVVXUH¶OHYHO7KLVPD\EHGRQHWKURXJKHQGRI
SLSH WHFKQLTXHV ZDVWHZDWHU FROOHFWLRQ DQG WUHDWPHQW EXW DOVR WKURXJK DWVRXUFH SROOXWLRQ
UHGXFWLRQHJDSSOLFDWLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHSURFHVVHVRUFOHDQHUSURGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV$VFDQ
EHGHULYHGIURPWKHDVVHVVPHQWSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQDQGDVZHOODV)LJXUHF
GRPHVWLFVRXUFHVDUHPRVWLPSRUWDQWLQWKLVUHVSHFW)XUWKHUPRUHRIWKHLQGXVWULDOVRXUFHVWKH
ODUJHVW SROOXWHUV DUH EUHZHULHV VXJDU FDQH DQG VRDS DQG RLO IDFWRULHV DQG GHVHUYH WKHUHIRUH
PRVW DWWHQWLRQ 3DUWO\ VXFK HQJLQHHULQJ PHDVXUHV IRU SROOXWLRQ DEDWHPHQW PD\ FRQFHUQ WKH
UHKDELOLWDWLRQ RI DOUHDG\ H[LVWLQJ LQVWDOODWLRQV ZKLFK LQ PDQ\ FDVHV DUH PDOIXQFWLRQLQJ )RU
H[DPSOH DV IROORZV IURP WKH DVVHVVPHQW SUHVHQWHG LQ VHFWLRQ UHKDELOLWDWLRQ DQG PRUH
HIILFLHQW PDQDJHPHQW RI WKH FRPPXQDO ZDVWHZDWHU V\VWHPV LQ WKH .HQ\DQ SDUW RI WKH ODNH
ZRXOGOHDGWRD%2'ORDGUHGXFWLRQIRU.HQ\DDQGQHDUO\IRUWKHODNHDVDZKROH
0DQ\RIWKHDERYHOLVWHGPHDVXUHVDUHDOUHDG\EHLQJXQGHUWDNHQWRDFHUWDLQH[WHQW$ZDUHQHVV
FUHDWLRQRQIDPLO\SODQQLQJDQGRQVDQLWDWLRQLVWDNLQJSODFH7KHZDWHUK\DFLQWKSUREOHPLV
EHLQJ WDFNOHG DQG XUEDQ DQG LQGXVWULDO SODQQLQJ KDV LPSURYHG FRQVLGHUDEO\ DIWHU \HDUV RI
XQFRQWUROOHG GHYHORSPHQW +RZHYHU FRQVLGHUDEOH LQWHQVLILFDWLRQ RI WKHVH DFWLYLWLHV ZLOO EH
UHTXLUHGWRHIIHFWLYHO\FRXQWHUDFWIXUWKHUGHJUDGDWLRQRIWKHODNHDQGHYHQWXDOO\WRLPSURYHLWV
FRQGLWLRQ ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW DQG UHKDELOLWDWLRQ RI DSSURSULDWH VHZHUDJH DQG
ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV DV ZHOO DV WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI RWKHU SROOXWLRQ DEDWHPHQW
WHFKQRORJLHVIRULQGXVWULHVZLOOUHTXLUHVXEVWDQWLDOLQYHVWPHQWV7KDWVXFKLVQRWXQIHDVLEOHLV
KRZHYHUGHPRQVWUDWHGE\DURXJKILQDQFLDODQDO\VLVIRUWKH.HQ\DQVLWHE\=DQWLQJ
ZKR GHPRQVWUDWHV WKDW WKH DQQXDO FRVWV RI RSHUDWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ GHSUHFLDWLRQ RI LQYHVWPHQW
FRVWV RI XSJUDGHG FRPPXQDO ZDVWHZDWHU IDFLOLWLHV LQ WKH XUEDQ FHQWUHV DPRXQWV WR
DSSUR[LPDWHO\PLOOLRQ86$WDWRWDOSRSXODWLRQRIRYHUPLOOLRQWKLVZRXOGEHGHHPHG
IHDVLEOH LQ SDUWLFXODU VLQFH FRQVLGHUDEOH H[WHUQDO ILQDQFLQJ IURP LQWHUQDWLRQDO RUJDQLVDWLRQV
VXFKDVWKH:RUOG%DQNKDYHDOUHDG\EHHQFRQWULEXWHGWRWKHUHJLRQZLWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH
/DNH9LFWRULD(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW3URJUDP/9(03VHHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQ
5HJLRQDOFRRSHUDWLRQ
)RU WKH EHIRUHGHILQHGSROOXWLRQDEDWHPHQWUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVWREHHIIHFWLYHLWLVRIFUXFLDO
LPSRUWDQFH WKDW WKH FRXQWULHV LQ WKH FDWFKPHQW DUHD DQG LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH WKUHH FRXQWULHV
ERUGHULQJ WKH ODNH SDUWLFLSDWH LQ D MRLQW HIIRUW WR UHGXFH HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ DQG
SUHVHUYHLPSURYH WKH ZDWHU TXDOLW\ RI WKH ODNH WKH SUREOHPV RI WKH ODNH DUH FOHDUO\ RI D
WUDQVERXQGDU\ QDWXUH $FWLYLWLHV RI WKLV NLQG DUH SUHVHQWO\ EHLQJ GHILQHG XQGHU WKH /DNH
9LFWRULD (QYLURQPHQWDO 0DQDJHPHQW 3URJUDP /9(03 DQG WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD )LVKHULHV
2UJDQL]DWLRQ/9)27KHILUVWLQLWLDWLYHWKH/9(03VWHPVIURPDSURJUDPPHLQLWLDWHGE\
WKH:RUOG%DQNDQGWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV'HYHORSPHQW3URJUDPPH81'3VSRQVRUHGE\WKH
*OREDO(QYLURQPHQWDO)DFLOLW\*()6FKQHLGHUDQGYDQ'LMN7KH/9(03IRFXVHV
ERWKRQFROOHFWLQJDGGLWLRQDONQRZOHGJHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPVRIWKHODNHWKURXJK
DFWLYHUHVHDUFKDVZHOODVRQIRUPXODWLQJDSSURSULDWHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVZLWKWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQ
RISROLF\PDNHUVRI7DQ]DQLD.HQ\DDQG8JDQGD7KH/9)2SURJUDPPRUHRYHULVFKDUJHG
ZLWKWKHFRRUGLQDWLRQRIUHVHDUFKRIWKHODNHDQGLWVFDWFKPHQWDUHDLQFOXGLQJWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVV
RILPSOHPHQWHGSROLF\PHDVXUHV
7KHWZRLQLWLDWLYHVIRUPDJRRGEDVLVIRUFRRSHUDWLRQEXWPXFKHIIRUWDQGUHVRXUFHVDUHVWLOO
UHTXLUHGWRHQVXUHWKHDFWXDOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKHGHILQHGPHDVXUHV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
7KH ILQGLQJV DQG UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW LQ WKLV WKHVLV KDYH EHHQ IHG LQWR ERWK
LQLWLDWLYHV WKURXJK GLVFXVVLRQV ZLWK UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV DV ZHOO DV WKURXJK WKH GLVVHPLQDWLRQ RI
UHSRUWVDQGGDWDGHULYHGIURPWKLVVWXG\
$QDO\VLVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDDQGUHVXOWV
7KH DVVHVVPHQW SUHVHQWHG LQ WKH SUHFHGLQJ VHFWLRQV LV EDVHG XSRQ D YHU\ OLPLWHG GDWD EDVH
0RUHRYHU VRPH RI WKH IXQGDPHQWDO SK\VLFDOFKHPLFDO DQG ELRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV EHKLQG WKH
FRQGLWLRQVRIWKHODNHDUHSRRUO\XQGHUVWRRG$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLVWKHUHIRUHD
FUXFLDODVSHFWRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWSURFHVV$VVWDWHGLQVHFWLRQWZRFDWHJRULHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\
LQWKHDVVHVVPHQWDUHGLVWLQJXLVKHG
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQYDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUV
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHIRUPRIWKHDSSOLHGDVVHVVPHQWWRROVPRGHOV
7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQV SURYLGH DQ HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH WZR W\SHV RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV DQG WKHLU
UHVSHFWLYHLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQW
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQYDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUV
$VDUJXHGLQVHFWLRQWKHPDLQVRXUFHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\DUHDSSUR[LPDWLRQRIYDOXHVGXHWR
WKH DEVHQFH RI DFFXUDWH GDWD DQG YDULDELOLW\ GXH WR WKH LQKHUHQW UDQGRPQHVV RI QDWXUH DQG
VRFLHW\.H\YDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUVLQWKLVDUH
N 3ROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJDQGGRPHVWLFDQG
LQGXVWULDOVRXUFHV
N 3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUV
N &RQFHQWUDWLRQRI1DQG3LQWKHODNH
N 6HGLPHQWDWLRQYHORFLW\
&RQVLGHULQJ WKH ODUJH XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH DERYH SDUDPHWHUV XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ YDOXHV IRU
SDUDPHWHUVGHULYHGIURPDFWXDOVWDWLVWLFDOGDWDVXFKDVSRSXODWLRQQXPEHUDQGJURZWKGDWD
ODQG XVH UDLQIDOO DQG LQGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQ WKH SROOXWLRQ IDFWRUV DUH DVVXPHG VPDOO LQ
FRPSDULVRQWRWKHDERYHOLVWHGSDUDPHWHUV$GLVFXVVLRQRIHDFKRIWKHDERYHOLVWHGSDUDPHWHUV
DQGYDULDEOHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV
&KDSWHU
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV
$QRYHUYLHZRISROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVDSSOLHGLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQV
DQG LV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH $ IRUPDO SUREDELOLW\ DQDO\VLV RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH UDQJHV
VSHFLILHGIRUHDFKSDUDPHWHUKDVEHHQSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQUHVSHFWLYHO\LQ7DEOHSDJH
IRU%2'DQGLQ7DEOHSDJHIRU1DQG37KHDQDO\VLVVKRZVWKDWWKHZLGHUDQJH
RISRVVLEOHYDOXHVKDVDODUJHLPSDFWRQWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQW,QYLHZ
RI WKH IDFW WKDW QHZ LQIRUPDWLRQ KDV EHFRPH DYDLODEOH VLQFH WKH SXEOLFDWLRQ RI WKH UHVHDUFK
SDSHUV LQ VHFWLRQV DQG DV ZHOO DV WR EULQJ VRPH TXDOLWDWLYH QXDQFHV LQWR WKH
SUREDELOLW\RIUHVXOWVHDFKRIWKHSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVLVEULHIO\GLVFXVVHGEHORZ
• 7DEOH 2YHUYLHZRISROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVXVHGLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULD,:3$
6RXUFH
8QLW
%2'
1
3
0LQ
0D[
%*
0LQ
0D[
%*
0LQ
0D[
%*
NJFDSÂ\
NJFDSÂ\
'RPHVWLF
6HZHUHG
1RQVHZHUHG
,QGXVWULDO
3URFHVVVSHFLILFIDFWRUVDVOLVWHGE\(FRQRPRSRXOXV
/DQGUXQRII
&XOWLYDWHG
NJKDÂ\
1$
1RQFXOWLYDWHG
NJKDÂ\
1$
1$
$WPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
7RWDO
NJKDÂ\
%* %HVW JXHVV 1$ 1RW DSSOLFDEOH 5DQJHV EDVHG RQ (FRQRPRSRXOXV ,ZXJR -¡UJHQVHQ
9LJKL DQG &KLDGDQL DQG :+2 9DOXHV SHU W\SH RI LQGXVWULDO SURFHVV DV UHSRUWHG E\
(FRQRPSRXOXV ZHUH DSSOLHG 5DQJHV EDVHG XSRQ %HDXODF DQG 5HFNKRZ 5LWWHU DQG
7KRPDQQDQG0XHOOHU5DQJHVEDVHGXSRQ%RRWVPDHWDO*DOORZD\HWDO/HZLV
DQG9LVVHU%*EDVHGXSRQDFWXDOPHDVXUHPHQWVIRU/DNH0DODZLE\%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\
'RPHVWLFSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV±5HFHQWGDWDKDYHEHFRPHDYDLODEOHERWKLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\DQG
ORFDOO\,QWHUQDWLRQDOO\DUHYLHZRIGDWDIURPYDULRXV0HGLWHUUDQHDQFRXQWULHVE\$UKRQGLWVLV
HW DO KDV VKRZQ WKDW DYHUDJH SHU FDSLWD GRPHVWLF FRQWULEXWLRQ RI 1 DQG 3 DUH
UHVSHFWLYHO\DQGNJSHUV\ZKLFKLVZLWKLQWKHKLJKHUUDQJHRIGDWDSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH
9DOXHVIRUGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVVXFKDVIRUWKH/DNH9LFWRULDUHJLRQPD\EHDVVXPHGWR
EH ORZHU $UKRQGLWVLV HW DO ILJXUHV FRXOG WKHUHIRUH EH VHHQ DV DQ XSSHU PDUJLQ
5HJLRQDOO\GDWDIURPPHDVXUHPHQWRIZDVWHZDWHUIURPVHZHUHGSRSXODWLRQDUHDYDLODEOHIRU
8JDQGD 0LQLVWU\ RI 1DWXUDO 5HVRXUFHV DQG 1DWLRQDO :DWHU DQG 6HZHUDJH
&RUSRUDWLRQ±DVVXPPDULVHGLQ7DEOH,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHYDOXHVUHSRUWHG
LQ 7DEOH FRQWDLQ D ORW RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV )LUVW RI DOO WKH H[DFW VDPSOLQJ DQG DQDO\VLV
PHWKRGVDVZHOODVWKHLUUHOLDELOLW\DUHQRWNQRZQ6HFRQGO\WKHVDPSOHVZHUHWDNHQIURPWKH
FHQWUDOVHZHUDJHV\VWHPZKLFKDSDUWIURPGRPHVWLFZDVWHZDWHUUHFHLYHVDOVRHIIOXHQWVIURP
VHYHUDOLQGXVWULDOHVWDEOLVKPHQWV1HYHUWKHOHVVLQGLFDWLRQVDUHWKDW%2'DQG1ORDGVDUHLQ
WKHORZHUUDQJHRIWKRVHUHSRUWHGLQ7DEOHZKLOHIRU3LWLVQHDUWKHµEHVWJXHVV¶YDOXH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
• 7DEOH 'DWDRQSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUVHZHUHGSRSXODWLRQLQVHYHUDOXUEDQFHQWUHVLQ
8JDQGDEDVHGXSRQPHDVXUHPHQWVE\0LQLVWU\RI1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHVDQG8JDQGD
:DWHUDQG6HZHUDJH&RUSRUDWLRQ
3ROOXWDQW
.DPSDOD
%XJROREL
-LQMD
.LULQ\D
(QWHEEH
0DVDND
$YHUDJH
%2'
1
3
)RU QRQVHZHUHG SRSXODWLRQ XQIRUWXQDWHO\ OLWWOH GDWD DUH DYDLODEOH WR YHULI\ WKH DVVXPHG
YDOXHV 0RVW HVWLPDWHV VXFK DV WKRVH RI &DODPDUL HW DO DQG 0DUD HW DO DUH
DURXQG WKH µEHVWJXHVV¶ YDOXH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH $ UHFHQW VWXG\ E\ +REEHOHQ KRZHYHUVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHDFWXDOSROOXWLRQORDGIURPQRQVHZHUHGSRSXODWLRQPD\EHPXFK
ORZHUWKDQH[SHFWHG+LVPHDVXUHPHQWVVXJJHVW%2'YDOXHVWKDWDUHRUOHVVRIWKHµEHVW
JXHVV¶YDOXHV,WVKRXOGKRZHYHUEHQRWHGWKDWVDPSOHVZHUHWDNHQGXULQJWKHGU\VHDVRQDQG
WKDWWKHWUXHORDGPLJKWEHVXEVWDQWLDOO\KLJKHUDVDUHVXOWRIIOXVKLQJGXULQJUDLQ7KHRYHUDOO
DVVHVVPHQWQHYHUWKHOHVVKDVWREHWKDWWKHDFWXDOORDGIURPGRPHVWLFZDVWHZDWHUZLOOEHLQWKH
ORZHUUDQJHVRIWKRVHUHSRUWHGLQ7DEOH
,QGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV±7KHDVVHVVPHQWRILQGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQVRXUFHVLVEDVHGXSRQ
YDOXHV UHSRUWHG IRU GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI LQGXVWULDO SURFHVV E\ (FRQRPRSRXOXV 7KH
DVVXPSWLRQPDGHWKHUHLQLVWKDWEHFDXVHRIWKHODUJHQXPEHURILQGXVWULHVDQGWKHYDULHW\RI
SURFHVVHVDQGWKHUHZLWKSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVLQYROYHGWKHHUURUVPRUHRUOHVV¶DYHUDJHRXW¶
8QIRUWXQDWHO\LQRQO\YHU\IHZFDVHVDFWXDOGDWDDUHDYDLODEOHWRYHULI\WKLVDVVXPSWLRQDQG
ZKHUHLWLVWKHVDPSOLQJDQGDQDO\VLVPHWKRGVDUHYHU\TXHVWLRQDEOH$QQH[FRPSDUHVIRUD
QXPEHURIUHSRUWHGFDVHVLQ8JDQGD7DQ]DQLD*KDQDDQG,YRU\&RDVWSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV
XVHG LQ WKH 5$ ZLWK GDWD IURP DFWXDO PHDVXUHPHQWV DV FROOHFWHG GXULQJ WKH FRXUVH RI WKLV
VWXG\7KHRYHUDOORXWFRPHVKRZVDUHDVRQDEOHPDWFKIRUWKHFXPXODWLYH%2'ORDGGHVSLWH
WKH IDFW WKDW YDOXHV GLIIHU FRQVLGHUDEO\ RQ D FDVHE\FDVH EDVLV 'HVSLWH VRPH UHVLGXDO
XQFHUWDLQW\LWLVWKHUHIRUHDVVXPHGWKDWWKHHUURULQLQGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQORDGLVPXFKVPDOOHU
WKDQWKDWUHODWHGWRWKHRWKHUSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV
3ROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV IRU UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ ± $V PD\ EH FRQFOXGHG IURP 7DEOH SROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJYDU\HQRUPRXVO\XSWRDIDFWRU%HDODF
DQG5HFNRZSURYLGHDYHU\XVHIXORYHUYLHZRIH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVIRUYDULRXVFURSVDQG
W\SHV RI VRLO (YHQ IURP WKLV FRPSUHKHQVLYH RYHUYLHZ KRZHYHU LW ZRXOG EH LPSRVVLEOH WR
GHWHUPLQHPRUHH[DFWLQWHQVLWLHVIRUWKHFDVHRI/DNH9LFWRULDEHFDXVHRIWKHODUJHYDULDWLRQLQ
YDOXHV:HWKHUHIRUHKDYHWRUHYHUWWRDOWHUQDWLYHDSSURDFKHVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVRIZKLFK
WKHUHDUHWZRWKDWZLOOEHDSSOLHGKHUHLFRPSDULVRQZLWKGDWDRQQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQ
ZDWHU RI ULYHUV IORZLQJ LQWR WKH ODNH DQG LL FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK DQ DOWHUQDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW
DSSURDFK
,QWKHFDVHRIODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJVXFKSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVDUHRIWHQUHIHUUHGWRDVµH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWV¶
&KDSWHU
:LWK UHVSHFW WR WKH ILUVW GDWD RQ 1 DQG 3 FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ ULYHU ZDWHU DUH DYDLODEOH IRU ULYHUV LQ WKH .HQ\DQ SDUW RI WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD FDWFKPHQW DUHD /DNH %DVLQ 'HYHORSPHQW
$XWKRULW\ DV ZHOO DV WKUHH ULYHUV RQ WKH 8JDQGDQ VLWH /LQGHQVFKPLGW HW DO 5HODWLQJWKHUHSRUWHGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVWRWKHVL]HRIWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHFDWFKPHQWDUHD7DEOH
SURYLGHVDQRYHUYLHZRIWKLVGDWD
• 7DEOH 8QFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVRIGDWDRQQXWULHQWH[SRUWIURPULYHUV±FRPSDULVRQRIYDOXHV
FDOFXODWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH5DSLG$VVHVVPHQW5$PHWKRGRORJ\ZLWKDFWXDOPHDVXUHPHQWVIRU
.HQ\D/DNH%DVLQ'HYHORSPHQW$XWKRULW\DQG8JDQGD/LQGHQVFKPLGWHWDO
1NJKDÂ\
0LQ
0D[
0HDQ
0LQ
0D[
0HDQ
5$&XOWLYDWHGODQG
.HQ\DQULYHUV 8JDQGDQULYHUV
5$1RQFXOWLYDWHGODQG
3NJKDÂ\
8QIRUWXQDWHO\ GDWD IRU .HQ\D FRQFHUQV RQO\ 12±1 DQG 323 ZKLFK XQGHU QRUPDO
FRQGLWLRQVPDNHXSOHVVWKDQRIWKHWRWDOEDODQFHDQGLQWKHFDVHRI1RIWHQIDUOHVV,WLV
IXUWKHUPRUHQRWHGWKDWWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHULYHUVVDPSOHGRQWKH.HQ\DQDQG8JDQGDQ
VLWH DUH YHU\ GLIIHUHQW 7KLV FRQFHUQV ILUVW RI DOO WKHLU VL]H ZKLFK DUH LQ WKH FDVH RI 8JDQGD
VPDOOHUVWUHDPVDQGIRU.HQ\DPXFKODUJHUULYHUV)XUWKHUPRUHWKHVWUHDPVRQWKH8JDQGDQ
VLWHGUDLQWKURXJKDQDUHDRIZHWODQGVZKLFKDUHNQRZQIRUWKHLUHIILFLHQWQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQ
7KHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHWZRVLWXDWLRQVFOHDUO\GLVSOD\VLQPXFKORZHUH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWV
IRUWKH8JDQGDQULYHUV1HYHUWKHOHVVLWPD\EHFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHGDWDGHPRQVWUDWHVWKDWWKH
DFWXDOQXWULHQWH[SRUWUDWHVDUHDURXQGWKHµEHVWJXHVV¶SROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVGHILQHGIRUWKH5$
ZLWKDIDFWRUSRVVLEOHYDULDWLRQLQERWKDSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHVHQVH
$VHFRQGZD\RIYHULILFDWLRQRIWKHSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUODQGUXQRIILVE\FRPSDULVRQWRDQ
DOWHUQDWLYH PHWKRG RI FDOFXODWLRQ RI QXWULHQW ORDGV 6XFK D PHWKRG KDV EHHQ SUHVHQWHG DQG
DSSOLHGLQVHFWLRQLQWKLVFDVHEDVHGXSRQDQHVWLPDWLRQRIQXWULHQWUXQRIIIURPQDWXUDODQG
DUWLILFLDO IHUWLOL]HUV 7KH DVVXPSWLRQ KHUH LV WKDW RI DSSOLHG 3 DQG RI 1 OHDFKHV
WKURXJKVXUIDFHZDWHUFRXUVHV7KHDVVHVVPHQWSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQFRQFHUQV7DQ]DQLDRQO\
,WVUHVXOWVDVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHSDJHFDQEHWUDQVODWHGLQWRFRPPRQQXWULHQWH[SRUW
FRHIILFLHQWVE\UHODWLQJWKHFDOFXODWHGWRWDOUXQRIIWRWKHVXUIDFHDUHDZKLFKUHVXOWVLQDQH[SRUW
FRHIILFLHQWRINJKDÂ\IRU1DQGNJKDÂ\IRU3%RWKIDFWRUVDUHDJDLQZLWKLQWKHUDQJH
XVHGZLWKWKHIDFWRUIRU3DSSURDFKLQJWKHµEHVWJXHVV¶YDOXHDQGIRU1GRXEOLQJLW$VDQ
RYHUDOO FRQFOXVLRQ RI WKLV YDOLGDWLRQ H[HUFLVH KRZHYHU WKH SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV DSSOLHG DUH
ZHOOZLWKLQWKHUDQJHVXVHGLQWKHDVVHVVPHQW7KHDFWXDOYDOXHLVWKHUHIRUHOLNHO\WREHZLWKLQ
DIDFWRURIWKHµEHVWJXHVV¶YDOXHVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHSDJH
'DWDRQULYHUVLQ.HQ\DFRQFHUQHGRQO\121DQG323
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
3ROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ±$UHYLHZRIGDWDRQ1DQG3GHSRVLWLRQ
WKURXJKUDLQIDOODQGGU\GHSRVLWLRQLVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQ6LQFHWKHDVVHVVPHQWKDVWDNHQ
SODFHQHZGDWDKDYHEHHQSUHVHQWHGE\/LQGHQVFKPLGWHWDODOWKRXJKIRUUDLQIDOORQO\
7KHDYHUDJHPHDVXUHGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDUHPJOIRU7RWDO'LVVROYHG17'1PJO
IRU6ROXEOH5HDFWLYH3653DQGPJOIRU7RWDO'LVVROYHG37'3ZKLFKLVKLJKHUWKDQ
YDOXHVUHSRUWHGHDUOLHUE\%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\9LVVHUDQG,&5$)DQG
WKRVHUHVXOWLQJIURPWKLVUHVHDUFKDVUHSRUWHGLQ6FKHUHQ7KHHVWLPDWHGDHULDOORDGVRI
1DQG3IURPUDLQIDOODUHUHVSHFWLYHO\DQGNJKDÂ\UHVSHFWLYHO\&RQVLGHULQJWKDWWKH
QXWULHQWORDGIURPGU\GHSRVLWLRQPD\EHWZLFHRUPRUHWKHORDGIURPUDLQIDOOWRWDO1DQG3
LQSXWIURPDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQZLOOEHLQWKHKLJKHUUDQJHRIHVWLPDWHVUHVXOWLQJIURPWKH
DVVHVVPHQW7DEOHSDJH
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQ3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUV
7KUHHFDWHJRULHVRISHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVKDYHEHHQXVHGLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQ
N 3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVIRU%2'UHGXFWLRQLQULYHUV
N 3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVIRUQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQLQZHWODQGV
N 3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVIRUZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWSODQWV
7KHEHORZVHFWLRQSUHVHQWVDQDQDO\VLVRISRVVLEOHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHVHSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUV
3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVIRUULYHUV7DEOHSDJHSUHVHQWVSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVIRU%2'
UHWHQWLRQ LQ ULYHUV 7KHUH LV XQIRUWXQDWHO\ QR GDWD DYDLODEOH WR YDOLGDWH WKH UHGXFWLRQ UDWH RI
%2' IRU WKH VSHFLILF FDVH RI /DNH 9LFWRULD +RZHYHU LW PD\ EH DVVXPHG WKDW WKH DVVXPHG
ZLGHUDQJHRIYDULDWLRQLQWKHGHFD\IDFWRU.DQGVWUHDPYHORFLW\YLQ(TXDWLRQSDJH
FRYHUV DQ\ XQFHUWDLQWLHV WKDW PD\ H[LVW 0RUHRYHU VLQFH WKH PDMRULW\ RI %2' VRXUFHV
FRQFHUQ SRLQW VRXUFHV FORVH WR RU DW WKH ODNH LWVHOI WKH LPSDFW RI DQ\ XQFHUWDLQWLHV RQ WKH
FDOFXODWLRQVZLOOEHYHU\OLPLWHG
3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVIRUZHWODQGV7DEOHSDJHSUHVHQWVYDOXHVDQGUDQJHVIRU1DQG
3 UHWHQWLRQ LQ ZHWODQGV GHSHQGLQJ RQ DQQXDO ORDGLQJ UDWHV $ UHFHQW SXEOLVKHG SDSHU E\
/LQGHQVFKPLGW HW DO SUHVHQWV GDWD RQ 1 UHGXFWLRQ LQ D ZHWODQG LQ 8JDQGD ZKLFK
FRQFHUQV GDWD IRU WKH .DJRQMD VWUHDP ZKLFK IORZV WKURXJK DQ DUHD RI ZHWODQGV SULRU WR
GLVFKDUJLQJ LQWR WKH ODNH 7KH GDWD SUHVHQWHG SURYLGHV HYLGHQFH IRU DQ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ UHGXFWLRQLQ7RWDO,QRUJDQLF17,1DWDWRWDOORDGLQJUDWHRINJ1\RYHUDVWUHWFKRI
DSSUR[LPDWHO\NPRIZHWODQGZLWK7,1DFFRXQWLQJIRUDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIWKHWRWDO1
ORDG7UDQVODWHGLQWRORDGLQJIDFWRUVDVSHU7DEOH1UHWHQWLRQZRXOGEHDWJ1\
ORDGLQJWKHKLJKHVWFDWHJRU\LQ7DEOHRUDSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRURIZKLFKLVZLWKLQWKH
DGRSWHGPDUJLQRIHUURU0RUHRYHUZHWODQGVDUHODUJHO\UHVWULFWHGWRWKH8JDQGDQSDUWRIWKH
ODNHZLWKRQO\IHZLQ.HQ\DDQG7DQ]DQLD:LWK8JDQGDPDNLQJXSDSSUR[LPDWHO\RI1
DQG3ORDGVWKHXQFHUWDLQW\EURXJKWLQWRWKHDQDO\VLVWKURXJKZHWODQGSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVPD\
EHDVVXPHGWREHVPDOOLQFRPSDULVRQWRRWKHUIDFWRUVRIXQFHUWDLQW\
&KDSWHU
3HQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV IRU ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV =DQWLQJ SUHVHQWV D YHU\
GHWDLOHGDQDO\VLVRIZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVLGHQWLILHGDQGDVVHVVHGDVSDUWRIWKLVVWXG\
:KHUH GDWD RQ WUHDWPHQW HIILFLHQF\ ZHUH DYDLODEOH WKLV ZDV FRPSDUHG WR WKH DVVXPHG
HIILFLHQF\FKDUDFWHULVWLFV$IHZLPSRUWDQWH[DPSOHVRIVXFKDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH$V
IROORZV IURP WKH FRPSDULVRQ DFWXDO SHUIRUPDQFH VHHPV LQ OLQHZLWKW\SLFDOHIILFLHQFLHVIRU
WKRVHSODQWVRSHUDWLQJFRUUHFWO\+RZHYHUXQIRUWXQDWHO\DORWRISODQWVZHUHIRXQGQRWWREH
ZRUNLQJHIILFLHQWO\PDLQO\EHFDXVHRIZHDNQHVVHVLQRSHUDWLRQDOSUDFWLFHVDQGDVDUHVXOWRI
SRRU PDLQWHQDQFH 7KH JHQHUDOO\ DSSOLHG WUHDWPHQW PHWKRG LV ODJRRQ V\VWHPV ZKLFK ZHUH
RIWHQ IRXQG WR EH RYHUORDGHG DQG SRRUO\ PDLQWDLQHG $Q H[DPSOH LQ 7DEOH LV WKH
WUHDWPHQWSODQWLQ(QWHEEHZKLFKKDGQRWEHHQGHVOXGJHGIRUDORQJWLPHDQGFRQVHTXHQWO\
GLVSOD\HG SRRU SHUIRUPDQFH IRU 3 HYHQ D QHJDWLYH SHUIRUPDQFH ZDV UHSRUWHG SUREDEO\
EHFDXVHRIUHVXVSHQVLRQRIVOXGJH
6LQFHLQPRVWFDVHVXSWRGDWHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWUHDWPHQWSHUIRUPDQFHZDVODFNLQJDQµH[SHUW
MXGJHPHQW¶ ZDV PDGH WR HVWLPDWH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH V\VWHP XQDYRLGDEO\ UHVXOWLQJ LQ
XQFHUWDLQWLHV2YHUDOOKRZHYHUWKHHVWLPDWHVPD\EHDVVXPHGWREHZHOOZLWKLQDPDUJLQ
RI HUURU RI WKH VXJJHVWHG PRVW OLNHO\ YDOXH ZKLFK LV WKH PDUJLQ RI HUURU DSSOLHG LQ WKH
DVVHVVPHQWSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQ
• 7DEOH &RPSDULVRQRIW\SLFDOWUHDWPHQWHIILFLHQFLHVDQGDFWXDOGDWDIRUDQXPEHURI
PXQLFLSDOZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWSODQWVLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDUHJLRQ
3ODQW
7UHDWPHQWW\SH
5HGXFWLRQHIILFLHQF\>@
%2'
$FWXDO
1
7\SLFDO $FWXDO
3
7\SLFDO $FWXDO
7\SLFDO
.DPSDODPXQLFLSDO 6HGLPHQWDWLRQ
WULFNOLQJILOWHUV
0DVDNDPXQLFLSDO
6HGLPHQWDWLRQDQG
DFWLYDWHGVOXGJH
-LQMDPXQLFLSDO
6WDELOL]DWLRQSRQGV
(QWHEEHPXQLFLSDO
6WDELOL]DWLRQSRQGV
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI1DQG3LQWKHODNH
7DEOHSUHVHQWVDQRYHUYLHZRISXEOLVKHGGDWDZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI1DQG3
LQ/DNH9LFWRULD$OOGDWDVWHPIURPWKHVDPHRIIVKRUHVWDWLRQFORVHWR%XJDLD,VODQGLQWKH
8JDQGDQSDUWRIWKHODNH7KHORFDWLRQRIWKLVVWDWLRQLQDPGHHSSDUWRIWKHODNHRXWVLGHRI
DQ\ LQIOXHQFH IURP LQVKRUH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ JUDGLHQWV DQG WKHUHIRUH FKDUDFWHULVWLF IRU WKH
GHHSHURIIVKRUHSDUWRIWKHODNH7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDSSOLHGLQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHDQG
PJOIRU1DQG3UHVSHFWLYHO\VHHVHFWLRQIDOOZLWKLQWKHUHSRUWHGUDQJHDOWKRXJK
WKH\DUHRQWKHKLJKHUVLGH
7\SLFDOGDWDIURP(FRQRPRSRXOXV'DWDRQDFWXDOWUHDWPHQWHIILFLHQFLHVIURPWKH8JDQGDQ1DWLRQDO:DWHUDQG
6HZHUDJH&RUSRUDWLRQ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
• 7DEOH 2YHUYLHZRIGDWDRQ1DQG3FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHRIIVKRUHSDUWRI/DNH9LFWRULD71
DQG73UHSUHVHQW7RWDO1LWURJHQDQG7RWDO3KRVSKRURXVFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
6RXUFH
/RFDWLRQ
'DWH
71>PJO@
73>PJO@
+HFN\
2IIVKRUH8JDQGD
'HF
+HFN\
2IIVKRUH8JDQGD
0DUFK
+HFN\DQG%XJHQ\L
9DULRXV
/DWHV
*RSKHQHWDO
2IIVKRUH
(DUO\V
/HKPDQDQG%UDQVWUDWRU
2IIVKRUH8JDQGD
$SULO
/HKPDQDQG%UDQVWUDWRU
2IIVKRUH8JDQGD
2FW
2YHUDOOUDQJHRIYDOXHV
7KH XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW UHODWHG WR VXFK UDQJHV RI HUURU LQ WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQRI1DQG3PD\EHDVVHVVHGE\DSSO\LQJWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHHTXDWLRQ(TXDWLRQ
SDJHWRWKHIXOOUDQJHRIVXFKFRQFHQWUDWLRQV7KHUHVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH
,WLVFOHDUWKDWWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHPRGHOKDYHRQO\YHU\OLPLWHGVHQVLWLYLW\DVLW
FRQFHUQVWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI1DQG37KHUHDVRQIRUWKLVLVWKDWLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKVHFWLRQ
WKHVHGLPHQWDWLRQYHORFLW\ Y V$ LVFDOFXODWHGE\PHDQVRIWKHHTXDWLRQ
(TXDWLRQ
YV$ UV b 6 $
&$
%HFDXVH Y V$ LVLQYHUVHO\UHODWHGWR&$WKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHQXWULHQWDQGEHFDXVHWKHVHFRQG
WHUPLQ(TXDWLRQUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHVHGLPHQWDWLRQUDWHLQIDFW(TXDWLRQLVPXFKPRUH
LPSRUWDQWWKDQWKHILUVWUHSUHVHQWLQJRXWIORZIURPWKHODNH4RXW:$QXWULHQWORDGGHSHQGV
RQO\OLWWOHRQ&$
• 7DEOH $VVHVVPHQWRIWKHLPSDFWRIQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQRQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHUHVXOWV
1LWURJHQ
3KRVSKRURXV
&$>PJO@
YV>P\@
:$>W\@
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQVHGLPHQWDWLRQYHORFLW\
7KHFDOFXODWHGQXWULHQWVHGLPHQWDWLRQYHORFLW\LQ/DNH9LFWRULDLVEDVHGXSRQDVLQJOHFRUH
VDPSOH UHSRUWHG E\ +HFN\ DV SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH 7KH VDPSOH VKRZV D FOHDU
FKDQJHLQVHGLPHQWDWLRQFRQVWLWXWLRQRYHUWLPHZLWKQXWULHQWVFRQWHQWLQFUHDVLQJ)XUWKHUPRUH
+HFN\¶VGDWDVKRZDVXEVWDQWLDOLQFUHDVHLQGHSRVLWLRQUDWHIURPJPEHIRUHWRJP
DIWHU 7KLV LQFUHDVHG GHSRVLWLRQ UDWH DQG WKH KLJKHU 1 DQG 3 FRQWHQW DUH FOHDUVLJQVRI
LQFUHDVHGH[WHUQDOQXWULHQWORDGLQJWRWKHODNH
&KDSWHU
7KH FRUH VDPSOH DQDO\VHG E\ +HFN\ ZDV WDNHQ DW P GHSWK DQG LV WKHUHIRUH
UHSUHVHQWDWLYH IRU WKH ODUJHU SDUW RI WKH ODNH +RZHYHU WKURXJKRXW WKH ODNH FRQVLGHUDEOH
YDULDWLRQVPD\RFFXULQSDUWLFXODULQWKHVKDOORZHULQVKRUHDUHDV,WLVLPSRVVLEOHWRDVVHVVWKH
PDUJLQRIHUURULQWKHVHGLPHQWDWLRQSDUDPHWHURQWKHEDVLVRIWKLVVLQJOHVDPSOHEXWEDVHGRQ
D SUHFDXWLRQDU\ DSSURDFK D PDUJLQ LQ RYHUDOO VHGLPHQWDWLRQ YHORFLW\ LV DVVXPHG
DSSURSULDWH$GRSWLQJWKHVHPDUJLQVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LWVHIIHFWRQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHZRXOGEH
DVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH$VIROORZVIURPWKLVDQDO\VLVWKHPDUJLQVRIXQFHUWDLQW\DUHODUJH
GXHWRWKHUHODWLYHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHVHGLPHQWDWLRQIDFWRULQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFH
• 7DEOH $VVHVVPHQWRIWKHLPSDFWRIVHGLPHQWDWLRQYHORFLW\RQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHUHVXOWV
1LWURJHQ
3KRVSKRURXV
YV
:$
&RQWHQWV>PJJ@
G H S WK >F P @
&DUERQ
1LWURJHQ
3KRVSKRURXV
• )LJXUH 6HGLPHQWDU\&1DQG3FRQWHQWRIWKHGHHSZDWHUVHGLPHQWVPLQWKH
QRUWKHDVWHUQVHFWRURI/DNH9LFWRULDEDVHGXSRQGDWDE\+HFN\7KHWLPHOLQHLV
LQGLFDWHGE\DEURNHQOLQH
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHIRUPRIWKHDSSOLHGDVVHVVPHQWWRROVPRGHOV
7KH PRGHO DSSOLHG WR WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD FDVH VWXG\ FRQFHUQV D UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH QXWULHQW
EDODQFH ZKLFK QDWXUDOO\ SURYLGHV D VLPSOLILHG UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI UHDOLW\ 7KH WKUHH PDLQ
DVVXPSWLRQVDSSUR[LPDWLRQVLQWKLVDSSURDFKDUH
N 7KH ODNH FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHG DV D FRPSOHWHO\ PL[HG V\VWHP PXFK OLNH WKH
FRQWLQXRXVVWLUUHGWDQNUHDFWRUDSSURDFKDSSOLHGLQFKHPLFDOHQJLQHHULQJ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
N 7KH V\VWHP DFWV VXIILFLHQWO\ IDVW WR H[WHUQDOO\LPSRVHG FKDQJHV HJ QXWULHQW
ORDGLQJVWRDVVXPHVWHDG\VWDWHFRQGLWLRQV(TXDWLRQSDJH
N $OO SURFHVVHV LQYROYLQJ QXWULHQWV ZLWKLQ WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP DUH OLQHDU WR WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHVHQXWULHQWVZLWKLQWKHV\VWHP(TXDWLRQSDJH
N 7KH PDLQ PHFKDQLVP RI QXWULHQW µORVV¶ IURP WKH V\VWHP UHWHQWLRQ LV
VHGLPHQWDWLRQ
(DFKRIWKHVHDVVXPSWLRQVDSSUR[LPDWLRQVLVGLVFXVVHGEHORZZLWKLQWKHOLJKWRIXQFHUWDLQWLHV
EHLQJEURXJKWLQWRWKHDVVHVVPHQW
&RPSOHWHO\PL[HGODNHDVVXPSWLRQ
2EYLRXVO\ LQ UHDOLW\ WKH ODNH LV IDU IURP KRPRJHQHRXV $V DOUHDG\ DUJXHG LQ VHFWLRQ FRQGLWLRQVLQVKRUHZLOOEHVXEVWDQWLDOO\GLIIHUHQWIURPWKRVHRIIVKRUHDQGWKURXJKRXWWKHODNH
ORFDOGLIIHUHQFHVZLOOH[LVWEHFDXVHRIFXUUHQWVDQGYDULDWLRQVLQPRUSKRORJ\DQGGHSWK7KH
PRGHOWKHUHIRUHUHSUHVHQWVWKHDYHUDJHFRQGLWLRQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVUDWHRISURFHVVHVLQWKHODNH
RQO\6LQFHWKHEXONRIWKHZDWHUFRQFHUQVWKHGHHSHURIIVKRUHSDUWRIWKHODNHWKLVDYHUDJH
PD\ EH FRQVLGHUHG WR EH FORVH WR WKH DFWXDO FRQGLWLRQV RIIVKRUH UDWKHU WKDQ LQVKRUH )RU WKH
SXUSRVH RI HVWDEOLVKLQJ DQ RYHUDOO QXWULHQW EDODQFH RI WKH ODNH WKLV DYHUDJH LV KRZHYHU
VXIILFLHQWDQGWKHPRGHOLVWKHUHZLWKDGHTXDWHIRULWVSXUSRVH&RQVLGHULQJWKHPRGHOLQWKLV
ZD\LWGRHVQRWHQWDLODQ\XQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWHUPVRILWVVWUXFWXUH
7KHVWHDG\VWDWHDVVXPSWLRQ
,Q DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK VHFWLRQ D VWHDG\ VWDWH DVVXPSWLRQ PD\ EH DVVXPHG LI WKH WLPH
EHWZHHQDFHUWDLQVWHSLQFUHDVHLQORDG:$DQGLWVGHWHUPLQDWLRQLVFRQVLGHUDEO\ODUJHUWKDQ
WKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFUHVSRQVHWLPH¦$$SSO\LQJ(TXDWLRQSDJHDQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFVIRU
WKHODNH¶VQXWULHQWEDODQFHDVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQWKLV¦$LVGHWHUPLQHGDW\HDU,QYLHZ
RIWKHIDFWWKDWFKDQJHVWRWKHODNHKDYHWDNHQSODFHJUDGXDOO\RYHUWKHODVWFHQWXU\WKHVWHDG\
VWDWHDVVXPSWLRQVHHPVWREHDUHDVRQDEOHHVWLPDWHSDUWLFXODUO\LQFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIWKHPXFK
ODUJHUXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHQXWULHQWORVVVHGLPHQWDWLRQSDUDPHWHURIWKHPDVVEDODQFH
/LQHDUSURFHVVHV
(TXDWLRQSDJHDVVXPHVWKDWDOOSURFHVVHVLQYROYLQJQXWULHQWVDUHOLQHDUO\UHODWHGWRWKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHVHQXWULHQWVLQWKHZDWHUV\VWHP,QUHDOLW\KRZHYHUDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPV
DUHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\VWURQJLQWHUDFWLRQVDPRQJFRPSRQHQWVUHVXOWLQJLQQRQOLQHDUUHVSRQVHV
)RUH[DPSOHWKHFRQGLWLRQVLQDZDWHUERG\PD\FKDQJHJUDGXDOO\XQGHUSUHVVXUHRILQFUHDVHG
SROOXWLRQ ORDGV XQWLO D FHUWDLQ WKUHVKROG LV UHDFKHG DIWHU ZKLFK HYHQ D VPDOO LQFUHPHQW ZLOO
FDXVH FRQGLWLRQV WR FKDQJH GUDPDWLFDOO\ ,Q WKLV UHVSHFW LW LV QRWHG WKDW /DNH 9LFWRULD KDV
XQGHUJRQH ODUJH FKDQJHV LQ SK\WRSODQNWRQ FRPSRVLWLRQ LQ WKH SDVW FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ D VKLIW
WRZDUGV1IL[LQJF\DQREDFWHULDDVUHSRUWHGE\%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\*RSKHQ
+HFN\ /XQJ¶D\LD HW DO 0XJLGGH DQG 2FKXPED DQG .LEDDUD 0RVW SUREDEO\ LQFUHDVHG QXWULHQW ORDGV WR WKH ODNH KDYH EHHQ WKH FDXVH RI WKLV FKDQJH $V
GLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQWKHSUHYDOHQFHRIF\DQREDFWHULDLQLWVHOIKDVOLNHO\EHHQDQLPSRUWDQW
VWLPXOXVIRULQFUHDVHGDOJDOSURGXFWLRQ
&KDSWHU
)RUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRISUHVHQWFRQGLWLRQVWKHVWDWXVTXRWKLVXQFHUWDLQW\KDVQRFRQVHTXHQFHV
+RZHYHU DV KDV KDSSHQHG LQ WKH SDVW QXWULHQW SURFHVVHV ZLWKLQ WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP PLJKW
FKDQJHFRQVLGHUDEO\LQWKHIXWXUHDVDUHVXOWRIVXFKFKDQJHVLQWKHHFRV\VWHPFRPSRVLWLRQDQG
SURFHVVHV 7KLV KDV FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI IXWXUH FRQGLWLRQV ZLWKLQ WKH ZDWHU
V\VWHP VHFWLRQ 7KH PDJQLWXGH RI WKLV XQFHUWDLQW\ FDQ DW SUHVHQW QRW EH SUHGLFWHG
ZLWKRXWDEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHIXQGDPHQWDOVRIWKHSURFHVVHVLQYROYHG
1XWULHQWORVVSURGXFWLRQPHFKDQLVPV
$Q LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU LQ WKH EDVLF PDVV EDODQFH HTXDWLRQ (TXDWLRQ SDJH LV 5$
UHSUHVHQWLQJWKHUDWHRIORVVSURFHVVHVWKURXJKZKLFKSROOXWDQW$LQWKLVFDVH1RU3LV¶ORVW¶
IURPWKHDTXDWLFV\VWHP,QDGRSWLQJ(TXDWLRQLWLVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHSULQFLSDOORVVSURFHVV
LVVHGLPHQWDWLRQWRWKHERWWRP$VDUJXHGLQVHFWLRQWKLVDVVXPSWLRQLVSUREDEO\MXVWLILHG
IRU3$SDUWIURPXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHDFWXDOYDOXHRIWKHVHGLPHQWDWLRQYHORFLW\DVGLVFXVVHG
EHIRUHWKHUHLVWKHUHIRUHQRDGGLWLRQDOXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKH3EDODQFH)RU1KRZHYHUWKHUHDUH
LQUHDOLW\WZRDGGLWLRQDOSURFHVVHVZKLFKPD\SOD\DUROHDQGZKLFKWKURXJKWKHVLPSOLILHG
DSSURDFKDGRSWHGIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWDUHQHJOHFWHG
N 7KH IL[DWLRQ RI JDVHRXV QLWURJHQ 1 E\ EOXHJUHHQ DOJDO VSHFLHV DOVR FDOOHG
F\DQREDFWHULD
N 7UDQVIRUPDWLRQRI12LQWR1WKURXJKGHQLWULILFDWLRQ
7KH SULQFLSOHV RI WKHVH WZR SURFHVVHV DUH GLVFXVVHG LQ $QQH[ ZKLFK FRQFOXGHV WKDW ERWK
SURFHVVHV PD\ EH LPSRUWDQW HOHPHQWV LQ WKH 1EDODQFH RI HXWURSKLF ODNHV 5DQJHV IRU
GHQLWULILFDWLRQUDWHVLQODNHVUDQJHIURPWR—PROPKZKLOHUHSRUWHG1IL[DWLRQUDWHV
YDU\ EHWZHHQ QHDU IRU ROLJRWURSKLF ODNHV XS WR —PROPK IRU HXWURSKLF ODNHV %DVHG
XSRQ WKHVH UDQJHV WKH DFWXDO FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH 1EDODQFH RI /DNH 9LFWRULD PD\ YDU\
EHWZHHQDQGNW\IRUGHQLWULILFDWLRQDQGXSWRNW\IRU1IL[DWLRQ,WPD\DOVR
EHFRQFOXGHGIURPWKHGLVFXVVLRQLQ$QQH[WKDWGHQLWULILFDWLRQLVOLNHO\WRH[FHHG1IL[DWLRQ
UDWHVE\DIDFWRURUPRUHZKLFKPHDQVWKDWWKHUHZRXOGEHDQHWORVVRI1IURPWKHV\VWHP
7KHGHQLWULILFDWLRQUDWHLQ/DNH9LFWRULDKDVXQIRUWXQDWHO\QRWEHHQGHWHUPLQHG+RZHYHUWKH
IDFWWKDWLWPD\EHDQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULVGHPRQVWUDWHGE\+HFN\HWDOZKRUHSRUWVD
VXEVWDQWLDOLQFUHDVHLQGHQLWULILFDWLRQLQWKHGHHSHUGHR[\JHQDWHGOD\HUVRIWKHODNHVLQFHWKH
WK +LV DQDO\VLV LV EDVHG XSRQ GHSWK SURILOHV RI SURILOHV RI 2 6ROXEOH 5HDFWLYH
3KRVSKRURXV653121DQG1+1DVGHWHUPLQHGE\7DOOLQJIRU)HEUXDU\
DQG E\ +HFN\ IRU 0DUFK 7KH SURILOHV VKRZ D FKDQJH IURP QHDUO\ IXOO\
R[\JHQDWHGFRQGLWLRQVLQWRDVLWXDWLRQRIGHR[\JHQDWLRQRIWKHGHHSHUOD\HUVP
GHSWK RI WKH ODNH DW SUHVHQW 7KLV REVHUYHG FKDQJH LQ WKH R[\JHQDWLRQ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD LV
FRQVLVWHQWZLWKDQGFRQWULEXWHVWRWKHHYLGHQFHRIDQLQFUHDVHLQSK\WRSODQNWRQELRPDVVDQG
SKRWRV\QWKHVLVVLQFHWKHVDVUHSRUWHGE\+HFN\DQG%XJHQ\L0XJLGGH
DQG 2FKXPED DQG .LEDDUD KLJK UDWHV RI SKRWRV\QWKHVLV LQ VXUIDFH ZDWHUV FUHDWH
VXSHUVDWXUDWHGR[\JHQDWHGFRQGLWLRQVLQWKHPL[HGWRSOD\HUZKHUHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDUHQHDURU
DERYH RSWLPXP VDWXUDWLRQ ,Q WKH GHHSHU OD\HUV VHGLPHQWDWLRQ DQG GHFRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH
RUJDQLFPDWWHUFRQVXPHVR[\JHQOHDGLQJWRDQR[LFFRQGLWLRQV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
0RUHRYHU DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKHVH ORZ R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWHV LQ WKH
ZDWHUFROXPQDUHHQKDQFHG$VORQJDVWKHGHQLWULILFDWLRQLQWHUIDFHLVNHSWLQWKHVHGLPHQWE\
ZHOO RYHUOD\LQJ R[\JHQDWHG ZDWHU GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWHV DUH GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH PROHFXODU
GLIIXVLRQ UDWHV LQWR WKH VHGLPHQWV 7KH SUHVHQFH RI WKH R[LFDQR[LF LQWHUIDFH LQ WKH ZDWHU
FROXPQ KRZHYHU LQFUHDVHV GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWHV EHFDXVH WXUEXOHQW GLIIXVLRQ FDQ VXSSO\ WKH
HOHFWURQ DFFHSWRUV PRUH UDSLGO\ (QKDQFHG GHQLWULILFDWLRQ WKXV UHGXFHVWKHUDWLRRIGLVVROYHG
LQRUJDQLF1',1WRVROXEOHUHDFWLYH3653EHORZWKHR[\FOLQH7KLVFKDQJHLQFRQGLWLRQVLV
IRXQGE\+HFN\HWDORQWKHEDVLVRIWKHLUFRPSDULVRQRIWKHEHIRUHPHQWLRQHGGHSWK
SURILOHVIRUDQG7KHODWWHUSUREDEO\DOVRH[SODLQVWKHKLJKHUUDWLRVRI13LQWKH
LQVKRUH YHUVXV WKH RIIVKRUH DUHDV DV REVHUYHG E\ /HKPDQ DQG %UDQVWUDWRU 7KH ODWWHU
UHFRUGHG WZR WLPHV KLJKHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI 1 LQVKRUH WKDQ RIIVKRUH LQ 2FWREHU1RYHPEHU
2QH H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKLV FRXOG EH WKDW WKH PRUH VKDOORZ ZDWHUV LQVKRUH DUH IXOO\
R[\JHQDWHG EHFDXVH WKH R[\FOLQH LV SUHVHQW DW PHWHUV GHSWK 'HQLWULILFDWLRQ WKHUHIRUH
ODUJHO\RFFXUVLQWKHVHGLPHQWDWPXFKORZHUUDWHV
)URP(TXDWLRQ$LQ$QQH[LWIROORZVWKDWWKHGHQLWULILFDWLRQUDWHLVVWURQJO\UHODWHGWRWKH
12FRQFHQWUDWLRQ7KLVFRQFHQWUDWLRQLVH[WUHPHO\ORZKRZHYHUZKLFKLVDUHVXOWRIWKHIDFW
WKDW GHQLWULILFDWLRQ LV HQKDQFHG E\ WKH ORZ R[\JHQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DW OHDVW RIIVKRUH :H FDQ
WKHUHIRUHDVVXPHWKDWGHQLWULILFDWLRQLVOLPLWHGE\WKHGLIIXVLRQUDWHIURPWKHPL[HGOD\HUWRWKH
GHHSHU OD\HUV $V YHUWLFDO (GG\ GLIIXVLRQ LV JHQHUDOO\ LQ WKH RUGHU RI PROP\
DFFRUGLQJWRHJ+HFN\DQG%XJHQ\L2XDQRHWDOWKHRYHUDOOYHUWLFDOPL[LQJ
UDWHWKXVUDQJHVIURPWRW\&RQVLGHULQJWKHVHUDWHVGHQLWULILFDWLRQLQWKHZDWHU
FROXPQLVWKHUHZLWKSRWHQWLDOO\DQLPSRUWDQWFRQWULEXWRUWRWKHRYHUDOOQXWULHQWEDODQFHRI/DNH
9LFWRULD LQ SDUWLFXODU VLQFH GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWHV LQ VHGLPHQW DUH JHQHUDOO\ HYHQ VXEVWDQWLDOO\
KLJKHUWKDQLQWKHZDWHUFROXPQDVDUHVXOWRIZKLFKWKHRYHUDOOFRQWULEXWLRQRIGHQLWULILFDWLRQ
PD\EHRIWKHVDPHRUGHURIPDJQLWXGHDVWKHH[WHUQDOQXWULHQWORDG
:LWK UHVSHFW WR 1IL[DWLRQ F\DQREDFWHULD KDYH EHFRPH D GRPLQDQW JURXS LQ WKH
SK\WRSODQNWRQSRSXODWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULDSUREDEO\DVDUHVXOWRIDQ1GHILFLW+HFN\
UHSRUWHGDYHU\KLJKIL[DWLRQUDWHLQWKHRUGHURIPPROPKERWKLQVKRUHDQGRIIVKRUH
2QWKHEDVLVRIWKLVGDWDLWLVKRZHYHUQRWSRVVLEOHWRDVVHVVWKHRYHUDOO1IL[DWLRQUDWHZKLFK
LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK (TXDWLRQ $ LQ $QQH[ LV VWURQJO\ GHWHUPLQHG E\ OLJKW WKH 1 µFHOO
TXRWD¶ DQG WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI 1 LQ WKH ZDWHU ,Q SDUWLFXODU RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH ORZ
WUDQVSDUHQF\RIWKHODNH¶VVXUIDFHZDWHUVLWPD\EHDVVXPHGWKDWOLJKWOLPLWDWLRQLVDQLPSRUWDQW
IDFWRU:KHQKRZHYHURQO\FRQVLGHULQJWKHWRSPHWHUOD\HURIF\DQREDFWHULDWREHDFWLYH
WKHQ WKH 1IL[DWLRQ UDWH ZRXOG UHVXOW LQ W\ ZKLFK ZRXOG VWLOO EH D VXEVWDQWLDO
FRQWULEXWLRQWRWKH1EDODQFH,WLVQRWHGPRUHRYHUWKDWWKLVYDOXHLVVWLOOLQWKHORZHUUDQJHRI
YDOXHVUHSRUWHGE\6HLW]LQJHU
7KLVDVSHFWLVPRUHH[WHQVLYHO\GHVFULEHGLQ6FKHUHQ
6HHDOVR$QQH[
&KDSWHU
2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKH DERYH GLVFXVVLRQ LW PD\ EH FRQFOXGHG WKDW ERWK GHQLWULILFDWLRQ DQG 1
IL[DWLRQ DUH LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV LQ WKH 1EDODQFH RI /DNH 9LFWRULD 6LQFH GDWD RQ DFWXDO
GHQLWULILFDWLRQDQG1IL[DWLRQUDWHVDUHKRZHYHUXQDYDLODEOHDQDFFXUDWHDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHLU
FRQWULEXWLRQFDQDWWKLVVWDJHQRWEHH[HFXWHG2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHIDFWWKDWWKHVHGLPHQWDWLRQ
YHORFLWLHVFDOFXODWHGIRU1DQG3DUHVLPLODULWPD\EHFRQFOXGHGWKDWGHQLWULILFDWLRQDQG1
IL[DWLRQDUHPRVWOLNHO\ZLWKLQWKHVDPHRUGHURIPDJQLWXGH:RXOGGHQLWULILFDWLRQLQGHHGEH
PXFK ODUJHU WKDQ 1IL[DWLRQ WKDQ WKH HIIHFWLYH VHGLPHQWDWLRQ YHORFLW\ IRU 1 ZRXOG EH
VXEVWDQWLDOO\ VPDOOHU WKDQ WKDW IRU 3 LQ RUGHU WR EDODQFH IRU DQ\ ORVV RI 1 IURP VHGLPHQWV
WKURXJK GHQLWULILFDWLRQ $OVR WKH IDFW WKDW WKH 1 ORDG Š FDOFXODWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH 5$
PHWKRG Š LV VLPLODU WR WKH UHVXOW RI WKH QXWULHQW EDODQFH LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH QHW HIIHFW RI
GHQLWULILFDWLRQDQG1IL[DWLRQLVQRWVXEVWDQWLDO1HYHUWKHOHVVLWVKRXOGEHFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHUH
LVFRQVLGHUDEOHXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKH1EDODQFHIRU/DNH9LFWRULDZKLFKFDQQRWEHRYHUFRPHDW
WKLVVWDJH
6XPPDU\RIFRQFOXVLRQVRQXQFHUWDLQW\LQGDWDDQGUHVXOWV
$VIROORZVIURPWKHDQDO\VLVLQVHFWLRQWKHUHDUHLPSRUWDQWXQFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWRWKH
µSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV¶XVHGLQWKH5$PHWKRGRORJ\(TXDWLRQSDJH0RUHRYHUDVPD\
EH FRQFOXGHG IURP VHFWLRQ DQ DGGLWLRQDO LPSRUWDQW SDUDPHWHU RI XQFHUWDLQW\ LV WKH
µQXWULHQW UHWHQWLRQ¶ SDUDPHWHU LQ WKH QXWULHQW EDODQFH PRGHO 5$ LQ (TXDWLRQ SDJH ZKLFKLVGHWHUPLQHGE\VHGLPHQWDWLRQUHVXVSHQVLRQGHQLWULILFDWLRQDQG1IL[DWLRQ)URPWKH
XQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVVHFWLRQLWPD\EHFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHVHWZRDVSHFWVDUH
OLNHO\ WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV RI XQFHUWDLQW\ +RZHYHU LW VKRXOG EH QRWHG WKDW WKH
XQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLVOLPLWHGLQVFRSHDQGGHSWKDQGLWVUHVXOWVVKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHFRQVLGHUHG
ZLWKVRPHFDUH
2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHXQFHUWDLQW\LQWHUYDOVGLVFXVVHGLQWKHVHFWLRQ)LJXUHSUHVHQWV
XQFHUWDLQW\ UDQJHV IRU WRWDO %2' ORDGV WR /DNH 9LFWRULD IRU ERWK LQGXVWULDO DQG GRPHVWLF
VRXUFHV5HIHUHQFH\HDULV,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHXQFHUWDLQW\UDQJHVLQ)LJXUH
UHSUHVHQW WKH DEVROXWH PLQLPXPPD[LPXP YDOXHV IRU %2' ORDGV UDWKHU WKDQ D SUREDELOLW\
UDQJHEDVHGRQIRUH[DPSOH0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQV)XUWKHUPRUHLWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKH
XQFHUWDLQW\UDQJHVDUHEDVHGXSRQWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWWKHPDLQIDFWRURIXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHVH
YDOXHVUHODWHVWRWKHµSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLW\¶SDUDPHWHUUDWKHUWKDQµIXQFWLRQDOYDULDEOHV¶LQWKH5$
PHWKRGRORJ\(TXDWLRQSDJHDVGLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQ
$VLVGHPRQVWUDWHGE\)LJXUHWKHGRPHVWLF%2'ORDGLVSUHGLFWHGWREHODUJHUWKDQWKH
LQGXVWULDO ORDG %DVHG RQ WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV LQ VHFWLRQ LW PD\ EH FRQFOXGHG
KRZHYHUWKDWGRPHVWLFORDGVDUHPRVWOLNHO\LQWKHORZHUSDUWRIWKHUDQJHLQGLFDWHGLQ)LJXUH
ZKLFK ZRXOG LPSO\ WKDW WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO ORDGV LV OHVV
SURIRXQGWKDQDQWLFLSDWHGRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHµEHVWJXHVV¶YDOXHVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHSDJH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
%2'ORDGW\
6LPLODU UHVXOWV IRU QXWULHQW ORDGV WR WKH ODNH DUH
SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH )RU 1 WKH UHVXOW
GHPRQVWUDWHVFOHDUO\WKDWDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQLV
WKH ODUJHVW IDFWRU IROORZHG E\ ODQG UXQRII DQG
OHDFKLQJ 'RPHVWLF ORDGV DUH QHJOLJLEOH LQ
FRPSDULVRQ,WLVQRWHGWKDWWKLVFRQFOXVLRQFRXSOHG
ZLWK WKH VXJJHVWHG 1 OLPLWDWLRQ LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD
%RRWVPD DQG +HFN\ /HKPDQ DQG
%UDQVWUDWRU FRUUHVSRQGV ZLWK WKH REVHUYHG
LQFUHDVH LQ FKORURSK\OO D FRQFHQWUDWLRQ DQG DOJDO
EORRPVGXULQJUDLQ\VHDVRQVZKLFKFDQRQO\SDUWO\
EH OLQNHG WR QXWULHQW XSVXUJH IURP VHGLPHQWV
2FKXPEDDQG.LEDDUDDQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRU
LV SUREDEO\WKHIDFWWKDWGXULQJWKHUDLQ\VHDVRQ1
GHSRVLWLRQ DQG LQFUHDVHG 1 UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ
FUHDWH KLJKHU 1 FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH ODNH DQG
VXEVHTXHQWO\VWLPXODWHSK\WRSODQNWRQJURZWK
,QGXVWULDO
'RPHVWLF
6RXUFH
• )LJXUH8QFHUWDLQW\DEVROXWHPLQPD[
UDQJHVRISRVVLEOH%2'ORDGVIURPLQGXVWULDO
DQGGRPHVWLFVRXUFHVWR/DNH9LFWRULD5HIHUHQFH
\HDULV
3ORDGW\
1ORDGW\
)RU 3 WKH UHVXOW LV OHVV H[FOXVLYH DV WKH HVWLPDWHG
ORDGV IURP UXQRII DQG DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ DUH
ZLWKLQ WKH VDPH UDQJH 2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKLV
DVVHVVPHQWLWFDQQRWEHFRQFOXGHGZKLFKRIWKHWZRLVODUJHU,WLVKRZHYHUFOHDUWKDWERWKDUH
LPSRUWDQWVRXUFHVDQGWKDWGRPHVWLFORDGVDUHLQDQ\FDVHRIPLQRULPSRUWDQFHLQFRPSDULVRQ
WRODQGUXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
'RPHVWLF
5XQRII
6RXUFH
'HSRVLWLRQ
'RPHVWLF
5XQRII
'HSRVLWLRQ
6RXUFH
• )LJXUH 8QFHUWDLQW\DEVROXWHPLQPD[UDQJHVRISRVVLEOH1DQG3ORDGVIURPGRPHVWLF
VRXUFHVODQGUXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQWR/DNH9LFWRULD5HIHUHQFH\HDULV
7KHVHUDQJHVUHSUHVHQWDEVROXWHPLQLPXPPD[LPXPYDOXHVIRUSROOXWLRQORDGVUDWKHUWKDQSUREDELOLW\UDQJHV
&KDSWHU
2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV SUHVHQWHG LQ VHFWLRQ WKH PDLQ SDUDPHWHU RI
XQFHUWDLQW\LQWKH1DQG3EDODQFHIRUWKHODNHLVDVVXPHGWREHWKHµQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQ¶IDFWRU
5$LQ(TXDWLRQSDJH$IDFWRURIXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKLVSDUDPHWHUFRQFHUQVILUVWRIDOOWKH
DVVXPHGVHGLPHQWDWLRQYHORFLW\LQWKHODNHZKLFKLVEDVHGRQDVLQJOHFRUHVDPSOH0RUHRYHU
WKHUHDUHODUJHXQFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWRWKHIDFWRUVRI1IL[DWLRQDQGGHQLWULILFDWLRQ%DVHGRQ
WKHXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQWKHFRQVHTXHQWXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKH3EDODQFH
LVSUHGLFWHGDWDPD[LPXPRIEHORZRUDERYHWKHDYHUDJHFDOFXODWHGWRWDO3ORDGWRWKH
ODNH 7DEOH SDJH 7KH PDUJLQ RI HUURU LQ WKH 1EDODQFH FDQ DW WKLV VWDJH QRW EH
GHWHUPLQHG EHFDXVH RI WKH ODUJH XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ GHQLWULILFDWLRQ DQG 1IL[DWLRQ UDWHV <HW D
FRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKH5$6WHS,LQWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDQGWKHQXWULHQW
EDODQFH6WHS,,LQWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNSURYLGHVHYLGHQFHIRUDVLPLODUUDQJHRIHUURULQWKH
WRWDO1ORDG
6XPPDU\RIFRQFOXVLRQVDQGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH ,QWHJUDWHG 3ROOXWLRQ $VVHVVPHQW RI /DNH 9LFWRULD GHWHUPLQH GRPHVWLF
SROOXWLRQDVRSSRVHGWRLQGXVWULHVDVWKHPDMRUVRXUFHRI%2'ORDGVZLWKWKH.HQ\DQSDUWRI
WKH ODNH DV LWV ODUJHVW FRQWULEXWRU 1XWULHQW ORDGV WR WKH ODNH DUH DVVRFLDWHG PDLQO\ ZLWK
DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDQGODQGUXQRIIWRJHWKHUOLNHO\DFFRXQWLQJIRURYHURI3DQG1
LQSXW LQWR WKH ODNH 'RPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO QXWULHQW ORDGV DUH QHJOLJLEOH ,Q WKH FDVH RI 1
DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQLVPRVWSUREDEO\LQH[FHVVRYHUODQGUXQRII,QWKHFDVHRI3UXQRIIDQG
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ DUH PRUH EDODQFHG DOWKRXJK WKH UHSRUWHG KLJK FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI 3 LQ
UDLQZDWHU RQ WKH VKRUHV RI /DNH 9LFWRULD %RRWVPD DQG +HFN\ ,&5$) /LQGHQVFKPLGW HW DO 6FKHUHQ 9LVVHU PDNH D ODUJHU FRQWULEXWLRQ RI
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ YHU\ OLNHO\ 0RGHOOLQJ RI H[SHFWHG IXWXUH GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH ODNH
SURMHFWVDIROGLQFUHDVHLQ%2'ORDGVDQGDWRIROGLQFUHDVHLQ1DQG3ORDGVEHWZHHQ
DQG7KHHIIHFWRIWKHODWWHUZRXOGEHDIROGLQFUHDVHLQ1DQG3FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQ
WKHODNHLWVHOI
7KHPDLQDQWKURSRJHQLFGULYLQJIRUFHEHKLQGWKHLQFUHDVLQJSROOXWLRQORDGVWR/DNH9LFWRULDLV
WKH KLJK SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG XUEDQLVDWLRQ UDWH LQ WKH UHJLRQ LQ WXUQ OLDVHG WR SRRU OLYLQJ
FRQGLWLRQVDQGWUDGLWLRQDOYDOXHVVXSSRUWLQJODUJHKRXVHKROGVL]HV'RPHVWLFZDVWHZDWHUDQG
HIIOXHQWVIURPUDSLGO\XSFRPLQJLQGXVWULHVKDYHFDXVHGDODUJHLQFUHDVHLQ%2'ORDGVIURP
SRLQW VRXUFHV )XUWKHUPRUH XQVXVWDLQDEOH DJULFXOWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW KDV SXW SUHVVXUH RQ
DYDLODEOH ODQG UHVXOWLQJ LQ WKH GHVWUXFWLRQ RI QDWXUDO YHJHWDWLRQ DQG WKHUHZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ
HURVLRQ DQG QXWULHQW UXQRII WR WKH ODNH ,QHIILFLHQW ELRPDVV EXUQLQJ PDLQO\ IRU KRXVHKROG
SXUSRVHVDQGIRUHVWEXUQLQJIRUODQGFOHDUDQFHKDYHEHHQOLQNHGWRWKHREVHUYHGODUJHLQFUHDVH
LQQXWULHQWVLQDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
1H[WWRWKHVHDQWKURSRJHQLFIDFWRUVWKHUHDUHKRZHYHUDQXPEHURIQDWXUDODQGVHPLQDWXUDO
GULYLQJIRUFHV7KHVHFRQFHUQILUVWRIDOOWKHLQYDVLRQRIWKHZDWHUK\DFLQWKVLQFHDVZHOO
DVWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIQHZILVKVSHFLHV1LOH3HUFKDQG1LOH7LODSLDLQWRWKHODNHLQV
ZKLFK KDYH ERWK EURXJKW DERXW FRQVLGHUDEOH FKDQJHV WR WKH ODNH¶V HFRV\VWHP DQG QXWULHQW
F\FOH)LQDOO\DFKDQJHLQFOLPDWHKDVEHHQREVHUYHGZKLFKKDVFDXVHGUDLQIDOOWRLQFUHDVH
WKHUHZLWKDIIHFWLQJWKHODNH¶VK\GURORJLFDOEDODQFHDQGLQFUHDVLQJQXWULHQWUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
7KHUHDUHDFRQVLGHUDEOHQXPEHURIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWERWKLQWHUPVRIWKHYDOXHV
RISDUDPHWHUVDQGYDULDEOHVDVZHOODVLQPRGHOIRUP+RZHYHULQVSLWHRIWKHVHXQFHUWDLQWLHV
WKHPDLQFRQFOXVLRQVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWDVVXPPDULVHGDERYHDUHDVVXPHGWREHMXVWLILHG2Q
WKHEDVLVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWSRVVLEOHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVZHUHIRUPXODWHG$SDUWIURPDFRQWURO
RYHUSRSXODWLRQJURZWKRIWHQGLIILFXOWWRUHDOLVHSROLFLHVVKRXOGEHGLUHFWHGDWWKHLQWURGXFWLRQ
RI VXVWDLQDEOH ODQGXVH SUDFWLFHV DQG KLJKHIILFLHQF\ VWRYHV DQGRU DOWHUQDWLYH VRXUFHV RI
HQHUJ\ IRU KRXVHKROGV )XUWKHUPRUH LPSURYHG DJULFXOWXUDO SUDFWLFHV ZRXOG QRW RQO\ HQVXUH
IRRGVXSSO\WRWKHJURZLQJSRSXODWLRQEXWDOVRFRXQWHUDFWVRLOHURVLRQDQGODQGUXQRIIDQG
GHFUHDVHWKHQHHGIRUIRUHVWFOHDULQJ0RUHRYHUPRUHHIILFLHQWKRXVHKROGHQHUJ\VXSSO\DQG
FRQWURORYHUIRUHVWEXUQLQJZRXOGGHFUHDVHDWPRVSKHULFQXWULHQWORDGV
5HGXFWLRQ RI %2' ORDGV RIWHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV
IXUWKHUPRUHGHPDQGVDQLPSURYHPHQWRIZDVWHZDWHUFROOHFWLRQDQGWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVLQWKH
XUEDQ FHQWUHV ,W LV HVWLPDWHG WKDW WKH UHKDELOLWDWLRQ RI H[LVWLQJ WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV LQ .HQ\D
DORQHZRXOGGHFUHDVH%2'ORDGVLQ.HQ\DE\DQGIRUWKHODNHDVDZKROHE\2I
WKHLQGXVWULHVEUHZHULHVVXJDUFDQHIDFWRULHVDQGVRDSDQGRLOIDFWRULHVUHSUHVHQWWKHODUJHVW
ORDGDQGWKHUHIRUHGHVHUYHPRVWDWWHQWLRQLQWHUPVRISROOXWLRQFRQWUROPHDVXUHV
)RU IXWXUH UHVHDUFK SDUDPHWHUV ZLWK WKH ODUJHVW VKDUH LQ XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ UHVXOWV DUH WKH
SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV IRU ODQG UXQRII DQG DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ DV ZHOO DV WKH IDFWRU RI
GHQLWULILFDWLRQDQG1IL[DWLRQ)XUWKHULQGHSWKVWXG\RQWKHVHIDFWRUVLQFOXGLQJH[SHULPHQWDO
GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI YDULDEOHV DQG SDUDPHWHUV ZRXOG DOORZ IRU D ILQHWXQLQJ RI SROLFLHV IRU WKH
SUHVHUYDWLRQDQGUHKDELOLWDWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD
VSUHVVXULVHGHFRV\VWHP
5HIHUHQFHV
$UKRQGLWVLV * 7VLUWVLV * $QJHOLGLV 02 .DU\GLV 0 4XDQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH (IIHFWV RI 1RQSRLQW
1XWULHQW6RXUFHVWR&RDVWDO0DULQH(XWURSKLFDWLRQ$SSOLFDWLRQVWRD6HPL(QFORVHG*XOILQWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQ
6HD(FRORJLFDO0RGHOOLQJ
$UR\D<-XR$65/HDFKLQJRI)HUWLOL]HU,RQVLQD.DROLQWLF8OWLVROLQWKH+LJK5DLQIDOO7URSLFV
/HDFKLQJRI1LWUDWHLQ)LHOG3ORWVXQGHU&URSSLQJDQG%DUH)DOORZ6RLO6FLHQFHV6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD-RXUQDO
$583$WNLQV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO /WG %ULWLVK &RWWRQ *URZLQJ $VVRFLDWLRQ 5HKDELOLWDWLRQ RI (GLEOH 2LO
6HFWR)LQDO5HSRUW9RO,/RQGRQ
%DQNRI8JDQGD$JULFXOWXUDO6HFUHWDULDW,PSRUWDWLRQRI)HUWLOL]HUVLQ8JDQGD
%HDGOH/&/LQG(05HVHDUFKRQWKH6ZDPSVRI8JDQGD8JDQGD-RXUQDO
%HDXODF 01 5HFNKRZ .+ $Q ([DPLQDWLRQ RI /DQG 8VH 1XWULHQW ([SRUW 5HODWLRQVKLSV :DWHU
5HVRXUFHV%XOOHWLQ
%HHWRQ $0 /DUJH )UHVZDWHU ODNHV 3UHVHQW 6WDWH 7UHQGV DQG )XWXUH (QYLURQPHQWDO &RQVHUYDWLRQ
%HQMDPLQ -5 &RUQHOO &$ 3UREDELOLW\ 6WDWLVWLFV DQG 'HFLVLRQ IRU &LYLO (QJLQHHUV 1HZ <RUN
0F*UDZ+LOO
%RRWVPD+$+HFN\5(&RQVHUYDWLRQRIWKH*UHDW/DNHV$/LPQRORJLFDO3HUVSHFWLYH&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%LRORJ\
%RRWVPD +$ %RRWVPD 0- +HFN\ 5( 7KH &KHPLFDO &RPSRVLWLRQ RI 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ DQG LWV
6LJQLILFDQFHWRWKH1XWULHQW%XGJHWRI/DNH0DODZLXQSXEOLVKHGPDQXVFULSW
&KDSWHU
%RXZPDQ $) /RQJWHUP 6FHQDULRV RI /LYHVWRFNFURSODQG 8VH ,QWHUDFWLRQV IRU WKH $VVHVVPHQW RI
(QYLURQPHQWDO ,QGLFDWRUV LQ 'HYHORSLQJ &RXQWULHV /DQG DQG :DWHU %XOOHWLQ 5RPH )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUDO
2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV±
%XGHOPDQ $ 1XWULHQW )ORZ $QDO\VLV DV D 7RRO LQ 5HVHDUFK 3ULRULW\ 6HWWLQJ LQ )DUPLQJ 6\VWHPV
5HVHDUFKQG'UDIW5HSRUW0ZDQ]D7DQ]DQLD
%XOORFN $ .H\D 62 0XWKXUL )0 %DLOH\:DWWV 7 :LOOLDPV 5 :DXJKUD\ ' /DNH 9LFWRULD
(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW3URJUDPPH'UDIW)LQDO5HSRUWE\WKH5HJLRQDO&RQVXOWDQWV
%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV$JULFXOWXUDO&HQVXVRI7DQ]DQLD9RO0LQLVWU\RI3ODQQLQJDQG(FRQRPLF
$IIDLUV%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV3RSXODWLRQ&HQVXV3UHOLPLQDU\5HSRUW0LQLVWU\RI)LQDQFH(FRQRPLF$IIDLUV
DQG3ODQQLQJ%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
%XUHDX RI 6WDWLVWLFV D $JULFXOWXUDO 6WDWLVWLFV 3UHVLGHQW
V 2IILFH 3ODQQLQJ &RPPLVVLRQ%XUHDXRI
6WDWLVWLFV'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFVE'LUHFWRU\RI,QGXVWULHV,QGXVWULDO&HQVXV9RO,DQG,,3UHVLGHQW
V2IILFH
3ODQQLQJ&RPPLVVLRQ%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
%XUNH59HORFLW\(TXDWLRQIRU:DWHU4XDOLW\0RGHOLQJLQ*HRUJLD:DWHU5HVRXUFHV%XOOHWLQ$PHULFDQ
:DWHU5HVRXUFHV$VVRFLDWLRQ
&DODPDUL'$$NHFK022FKXPED3%2&RQVHUYDWLRQRIWKH$TXDWLF(QYLURQPHQW:LQDP*XOI
%DVLQ$UHD3UHOLPLQDU\+D]DUG$VVHVVPHQW)RRGDQG$JULFXOWXUH2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV
&DODPDUL'$$NHFK022FKXPED3%23ROOXWLRQRI:LQDP*XOI/DNH9LFWRULD.HQ\D&,)$
6HPLQDURQ$IULFDQ,QODQG)LVKHULHV$TXDFXOWXUHDQG(QYLURQPHQW+DUDUH=LPEDEZH'HFHPEHU
&DOOHO\ $* )RUVWHU &) 6WDIIRUG '$ 7UHDWPHQW RI ,QGXVWULDO (IIOXHQWV +RGGHU 6WRXJKWRQ
/RQGRQ
&UXO 5&0 0RQRJUDSKV RI WKH $IULFDQ *UHDW /DNHV /LPQRORJ\ DQG +\GURORJ\ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD
81(6&2,+3
&UXW]HQ3-$QGUHDH02%LRPDVV%XUQLQJLQWKH7URSLFV,PSDFWRQ$WPRVSKHULF&KHPLVWU\DQG
%LRJHRFKHPLFDO&\FOHV6FLHQFH
'HQWHQHU )- &UXW]HQ 3- $ 7KUHHGLPHQVLRQDO 0RGHO RI WKH *OREDO $PPRQLD &\FOH -RXUQDO RI
$WPRVSKHULF&KHPLVWU\
'URUXJD15HSRUWRQWKH3XULILFDWLRQRI,QGXVWULDO:DVWH:DWHULQ8JDQGD0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWDO
3URWHFWLRQ.DPSDOD8JDQGD
(FRQRPRSRXORV$3$VVHVVPHQWRI6RXUFHVRI$LU:DWHUDQG/DQG3ROOXWLRQ3DUWRQH5DSLG,QYHQWRU\
7HFKQLTXHVLQ(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQ:+23(3*(71(7$:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQL]DWLRQ*HQHYD
*DOORZD\ -1 /LNHQV *( .HHQH :& 0LOOHU -0 7KH &RPSRVLWLRQ RI 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ LQ 5HPRWH
$UHDVRIWKH:RUOG-RXUQDORI*HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK
*ROGPDQ &5 -DVVE\ $' 'H $PH]DJD ( )RUHVW )LUHV $WPRVSKHULF 'HSRVLWLRQ DQG 3ULPDU\
3URGXFWLYLW\DW/DNH7DKRH&DOLIRUQLD1HYDGD9HUKDQGOXQJHQGHU,QWHUQDWLRQDOH9HUHLQLJXQJIU/LPQRORJLH
*ROGVPLGW 7 :LWWH ) :DQLQN - &DVFDGLQJ (IIHFWV RI WKH ,QWURGXFHG 1LOH 3HUFK RQ WKH
'HWULYRURXV3K\WRSODQNWLYRURXV6SHFLHVLQWKH6XEOLWWRUDO$UHDVRI/DNH9LFWRULD&RQVHUYDWLRQ%LRORJ\
*RSKHQ02FKXPED3%23ROOLQJKHU8.DXIPDQ/61LOH3HUFK/DWHVQLORWLFXV,QYDVLRQLQ
/DNH 9LFWRULD (DVW $IULFD 9HUKDQGOXQJHQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDOH 9HUHLQLJXQJ IU 7KHRUHWLVFKH XQG $QJHZDQGWH
/LPQRORJLH
*RSKHQ 0 2FKXPED 3%2 .DXIPDQ /6 6RPH $VSHFWV RI 3HUWXUEDWLRQ LQ WKH 6WUXFWXUH DQG
%LRGLYHUVLW\RIWKH(FRV\VWHPRI/DNH9LFWRULD(DVW$IULFD$TXDWLF/LYLQJ5HVRXUFHV
*RYHUQPHQWRI7DQ]DQLD1DWLRQDO(QYLURQPHQWDO$FWLRQ3ODQ$)LUVW6WHS'DUHV6DODDP
+DLWK'$6LPXODWHG5HJLRQDO9DULDWLRQVLQ3HVWLFLGH5XQRII-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO4XDOLW\
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
+DUULVRQ.&ULPPHQ27UDYHUV50DLNZHNL-0XWRUR'%DODQFLQJWKH6FDOHVLQ/DNH9LFWRULD
%LRORJLVW
+HFN\ 5( 7KH (XWURSKLFDWLRQ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD 9HUKDQGOXQJHQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDOH 9HUHLQLJXQJ IU
7KHRUHWLVFKHXQG$QJHZDQGWH/LPQRORJLH
+HFN\5(%XJHQ\L):%+\GURORJ\DQG&KHPLVWU\RIWKH$IULFDQ*UHDW/DNHVDQG:DWHU4XDOLW\
,VVXHV 3UREOHPV DQG 6ROXWLRQV 0LWWHLOXQJHQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDOH 9HUHLQLJXQJ IvU 7KHRUHWLVFKH XQG $QJHZDQGWH
/LPQRORJLH
+HFN\ 5( %XJHQ\LÜ ):% 2FKXPED 7DOOLQJ -) 0XJLGGH 5 *RSKHQ 0 .DXIPDQ / 'HR[\JHQDWLRQRIWKH'HHS:DWHURI/DNH9LFWRULD(DVW$IULFD/LPQRORJ\DQG2FHDQRJUDSK\
+REEHOHQ+30$VVHVVPHQWRI'RPHVWLF/LTXLG:DVWH5XQRII'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD(LQGKRYHQ
8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\)DFXOW\RI7HFKQRORJ\0DQDJHPHQW06FWKHVLV(LQGKRYHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV
+|MOXQG$0DUZD3D'DWDRQ0DMRU,QGXVWULHVZLWKLQ0ZDQ]D7RZQYLVLWHGE\1(0&6HSWHPEHU
1(0&'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
+|MOXQG$0DUZD3E'DWDRQ0DMRU,QGXVWULHVZLWKLQ0XVRPD7RZQYLVLWHGE\1(0&6HSWHPEHU
1(0&'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
,&5$) ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &HQWUH IRU 5HVHDUFK LQ $JURIRUHVWU\ 5DLQ 6DPSOH $QDO\VLV ,Q %UDXQ $ (G
1XWULHQW)ORZVLQ)DOORZ6\VWHPVDQG0DL]HLQ:HVWHUQ.HQ\D
,3&&2(&'*UHHQKRXVH*DV,QYHQWRU\5HIHUHQFH0DQXDO)LQDO9HUVLRQ2(&',3&&/RQGRQ
,3&&,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH(PLVVLRQ6FHQDULRV&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
&DPEULGJH
,ZXJR.2%DVLF&RQFHSWVRI(QYLURQPHQWDO4XDOLW\&RQWUROLQ5HODWLRQWR%DVHOLQH6WXGLHVRQ/DQG
EDVHG 6RXUFHV RI 3ROOXWLRQ /HFWXUH SUHVHQWHG DW WKH ,2&6$5(&81(3)$2,$($:+2 :RUNVKRS RQ
5HJLRQDO$VSHFWVRI0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ0DXULWLXV2FWREHU1RYHPEHU0LPHR
-¡UJHQVHQ6(/DNH0DQDJHPHQW2[IRUG3HUJDPRQ
-RQHV-95HVRXUFHVDQG,QGXVWU\LQ7DQ]DQLD7DQ]DQLD3XEOLVKLQJ+RXVH'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
.DDOH%.:RRGIXHO8WLOL]DWLRQLQ5XUDO,QGXVWULHVLQWKH6$'&5HJLRQ6$'&(QHUJ\6HFWRU±7$8
/XDQGD
.DXIPDQ/&DWDVWURSKLF&KDQJHLQ6SHFLHV5LFK)UHVKZDWHU(FRV\VWHPV%LRVFLHQFH
.DXIPDQ/2FKXPED3(YROXWLRQDQG&RQVHUYDWLRQ%LRORJ\RI&LFKOLG)LVKHVDV5HYHDOHGE\)DXQDO
5HPQDQWVLQ1RUWKHUQ/DNH9LFWRULD&RQVHUYDWLRQ%LRORJ\
.HQGDOO5/$Q(FRORJLFDO+LVWRU\RIWKH/DNH9LFWRULD%DVLQ(FRORJLFDO0RQRJUDSKV
.HQ\D*UDLQ*URZHUV&RRSHUDWLYH8QLRQ*RYHUQPHQW)HUWLOL]HU'LVWULEXWLRQXQSXEOLVKHG
1DNXUX.HQ\D
.,/,02)$2)HUWLOL]HU3URJUDPPH0XVRPD$QQXDO5HYLHZRI3URMHFW$FWLYLWLHV6HDVRQ
DQG$FWLRQ3ODQIRU6HDVRQ0XVRPD7DQ]DQLD
.,/,02)$2 )HUWLOL]HU 3URJUDPPH 0ZDQ]D 5HSRUW IURP WKH 5HJLRQDO LQSXWV FRRUGLQDWRUV DQQXDO
PHHWLQJ0RURJRUR$XJXVW0ZDQ]D7DQ]DQLD
.LUXJDUD ' 1HYHMDQ 1 ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ RI 3ROOXWLRQ6RXUFHVLQWKH.HQ\DQ3DUWRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULD
&DWFKPHQW$UHD.HQ\D%HOJLXP-RLQW3URMHFWLQ)UHVKZDWHU(FRORJ\.LVXPX.HQ\DDQG%UXVVHOV%HOJLXP
.LWH*:5HFHQW&KDQJHVLQ/HYHORI/DNH9LFWRULD+\GURORJLFDO6FLHQFHV%XOOHWLQ
.LWH*:5HFHQW&KDQJHVLQ/DNH9LFWRULD/HYHOV+\GURORJLFDO6FLHQFHV-RXUQDO
.LWH*:5HJXODWLRQVRIWKH:KLWH1LOH+\GURORJLFDO6FLHQFHV-RXUQDO
.URH]H & 6HLW]LQJHU 63 1LWURJHQ ,QSXWV WR 5LYHUV (VWXDULHV DQG &RQWLQHQWDO 6KHOYHV DQG 5HODWHG
1LWURXV2[LGH(PLVVLRQVLQDQGD*OREDO0RGHO1XWULHQW&\FOLQJLQ$JURHFRV\VWHPV±
/DNH %DVLQ 'HYHORSPHQW $XWKRULW\ 5HSXEOLF RI .HQ\D 7KH 6WXG\ RI WKH ,QWHJUDWHG 5HJLRQDO
'HYHORSPHQW0DVWHU3ODQIRUWKH/DNH%DVLQ'HYHORSPHQW$UHD9ROXPHV1DLUREL.HQ\D
&KDSWHU
/DNH %DVLQ 'HYHORSPHQW $XWKRULW\ ± 5HSXEOLF RI .HQ\D 5HSRUW RQ :DWHU 6DPSOH $QDO\VLV QRW
SXEOLVKHG1DLUREL.HQ\D
/HKPDQ-7%UDQVWUDWRUÜ'.(IIHFWVRI1XWULHQWVDQG*UD]LQJRQWKH3K\WRSODQNWRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD
9HUKDOWHQ,QWHUQDWLRQDOHU9HUHLQLJXQJIU/LPQRORORJLH
/HKPDQ-7%UDQVWUDWRU'.1XWULHQW'\QDPLFVDQG7XUQRYHU5DWHVRI3KRVSKDWHDQG6XOIDWHLQ/DNH
9LFWRULD(DVW$IULFD/LPQRORJ\DQG2FHDQRJUDSK\
/HZLV :0 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ &KHPLVWU\ DQG 1XWULHQW /RDGLQJ E\ 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ LQ D 7URSLFDO :DWHUVKHG
:DWHU5HVRXUFHV5HVHDUFK
/LMNOHPD / 'HYHORSPHQWV DQG (XWURSKLFDWLRQ ([SHULHQFHV DQG 3HUVSHFWLYHV :DWHU 6FLHQFH DQG
7HFKQRORJ\
/LQGHQVFKPLGW.(6XKU00DJXPED0.+HFN\5(%XJHQ\L):%/RDGLQJRI6ROXWHDQG
6XVSHQGHG6ROLGVIURP5XUDO&DWFKPHQW$UHDV)ORZLQJLQWR/DNH9LFWRULDLQ8JDQGD:DWHU5HVHDUFK
/XQJ¶D\LD+6LWRNL/.HQ\DQ\D07KH1XWULHQW(QULFKPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD+\GURELRORJLD
0DDJL=*16DQJLZD.50DZH660&DQG.DDOH%.0ZDQ]D5HJLRQ)LYH<HDU)RUHVWU\
'HYHORSPHQW3ODQ±0ZDQ]D2IILFHRIWKH5HJLRQDO&RPPLVVLRQHU0ZDQ]D7DQ]DQLD
0DML8EXQJR$VVHVVPHQWRI:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ'XHWR,QGXVWULDO$FWLYLWLHVLQ0ZDQ]D5HSRUW0DML
8EXQJR0ZDQ]D7DQ]DQLD
0DUD''$ODEDVWHU*33HDUVRQ+:0LOOV6::DVWH6WDELOLVDWLRQ3RQGV$'HVLJQ0DQXDOIRU
(DVWHUQ$IULFD/DJRRQ7HFKQRORJ\,QWHUQDWLRQDO/HHGV(QJODQG
0DWDJL 69 6RPH ,VVXHV RI (QYLURQPHQWDO &RQFHUQ LQ .DPSDOD WKH &DSLWDO &LW\ RI 8JDQGD
(QYLURQPHQWDO0RQLWRULQJDQG$VVHVVPHQW
0DWRZR6(QYLURQPHQWDO6DQLWDWLRQLQ0ZDQ]D5HJLRQ0DML0ZDQ]D0ZDQ]D
0DWWLNDOOL105LFKDUGV.6(VWLPDWLRQRI6XUIDFH:DWHU4XDOLW\&KDQJHVLQ5HVSRQVHWR/DQG8VH
&KDQJH $SSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH ([SRUW &RHIILFLHQW 0RGHO XVLQJ 5HPRWH 6HQVLQJ DQG *HRJUDSKLFDO ,QIRUPDWLRQ
6\VWHP-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW
0HHUWHQV +&& /XSHMD 30 3UHOLPLQDU\ 5HVXOWV RI 9LOODJH 6XUYH\ 0ZDQ]D .LOLPR)$2 3ODQW
1XWULWLRQ3URJUDPPH857)$2
0HWFDOIDQG(GG\:DVWHZDWHU(QJLQHHULQJ7UHDWPHQW'LVSRVDODQG5HXVH0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN
0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUHDQG/LYHVWRFN'HYHORSPHQW5HSXEOLFRI7DQ]DQLD$QQXDO5HSRUWRQWKH5HYLHZ
RI6HDVRQ5HJLRQDO$JULFXOWXUDO2IILFH%XNRED7DQ]DQLD
0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUHDQG/LYHVWRFN'HYHORSPHQW±5HSXEOLFRI7DQ]DQLD%DVLF'DWD$JULFXOWXUDODQG
/LYHVWRFN 6HFWRU 3ODQQLQJ DQG 0DUNHWLQJ 'LYLVLRQ 0LQLVWU\ RI $JULFXOWXUH DQG /LYHVWRFN
'HYHORSPHQW'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUH$QLPDO,QGXVWU\DQG)LVKHULHV5HSXEOLFRI8JDQGD5HSRUWRQ8JDQGD1DWLRQDO
&HQVXVRI$JULFXOWXUHDQG/LYHVWRFN.DPSDOD8JDQGD
0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUH$QLPDO,QGXVWU\DQG)LVKHULHV5HSXEOLFRI8JDQGD'HSDUWPHQWRI9HWHULQDU\
6HUYLFHV$QQXDO5HSRUW.DPSDOD8JDQGD
0LQLVWU\ RI )LQDQFH (FRQRPLF 3ODQQLQJ 5HSXEOLF RI 8JDQGD 7KH 3RSXODWLRQ DQG +RXVLQJ
&HQVXV.DPSDOD8JDQGD
0LQLVWU\RI)LQDQFH(FRQRPLF3ODQQLQJ5HSXEOLFRI8JDQGD%DFNJURXQGWRWKH%XGJHW
.DPSDOD8JDQGD
0LQLVWU\ RI +HDOWK DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO 3URWHFWLRQ +DQGERRN RI (PLVVLRQ )DFWRUV , 1RQ,QGXVWULDO
6RXUFHV*RYHUQPHQW3XEOLVKLQJ2IILFHWKH+DJXHWKH1HWKHUODQGV
0LQLVWU\RI1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHV5HSXEOLFRI8JDQGD'LUHFWRUDWHRI:DWHU'HYHORSPHQWDQG,QWHUQDWLRQDO
'HYHORSPHQW$VVRFLDWLRQ,'$5HKDELOLWDWLRQRI1:6&-LQMD:DWHUDQG6HZHUDJH)LQDO5HSRUW9ROXPH
.DPSDOD8JDQGD
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
0LQLVWU\ RI 1DWXUDO 5HVRXUFHV ± 5HSXEOLF RI 8JDQGD 6WDWH RI WKH (QYLURQPHQW 5HSRUW IRU 8JDQGD
1DWLRQDO(QYLURQPHQWDO,QIRUPDWLRQ&HQWUH.DPSDOD8JDQGD
0LQLVWU\RI1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHV5HSXEOLFRI8JDQGD/DNH9LFWRULD(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW3URJUDP
5HSRUWRI1DWLRQDO:RUNLQJ*URXS1RRQ0DQDJHPHQWRI:DWHU4XDOLW\DQG/DQG8VHLQFOXGLQJ:HWODQGV
.DPSDOD8JDQGD
0LQLVWU\RI1DWLRQDO5HVRXUFHV5HSXEOLFRI8JDQGD)RUHVWU\'HSDUWPHQW5HPRWH6HQVLQJGDWDIURPWKH
1DWLRQDO%LRPDVV6WXG\XQSXEOLVKHG.DPSDOD8JDQGD
0LQLVWU\RI3ODQQLQJDQG1DWLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW5HSXEOLFRI.HQ\D.LVXPX'LVWULFW'HYHORSPHQW3ODQ
.HQ\D
0LQLVWU\RI:DWHU'HYHORSPHQW5HSXEOLFRI.HQ\D-DSDQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RRSHUDWLRQ$JHQF\-,&$
7KH6WXG\RQWKH1DWLRQDO:DWHU0DVWHU3ODQ6HFWRUDO5HSRUW6RFLR(FRQRP\.HQ\D
0RWKHUVLOO -6 7KH 0LQHUDORJ\ DQG *HRFKHPLVWU\ RI WKH 6HGLPHQWV RI 1RUWKZHVWHUQ /DNH 9LFWRULD
6HGLPHQWRORJ\
0SHQGD]RH07.LERJR\D05XWDJHPZD'..D\RPER65ZHJDVLUD00DUZD3(YDOXDWLRQ
RI3RLQW6RXUFH'LVFKDUJH7UHDWPHQW2SWLRQVLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULD$UHDLQ7DQ]DQLD3KDVHWR'DUHV6DODDP
7DQ]DQLD
0XJLGGH 5 7KH ,QFUHDVH LQ 3K\WRSODQNWRQ 3ULPDU\ 3URGXFWLYLW\ DQG %LRPDVV LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD
9HUKDOWHQ,QWHUQDWLRQDOHU9HUHLQLJXQJIU/LPQRORORJLH
1DWLRQDO :DWHU DQG 6HZHUDJH &RUSRUDWLRQ 5HSXEOLF RI 8JDQGD 6WDWLVWLFV RQ 6DQLWDWLRQ LQ 1:6& 7RZQVXQSXEOLVKHG8JDQGD
2FKXPED3%23HULRGLF0DVVLYH)LVK.LOOVLQWKH.HQ\DQ3RUWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD,Q)$2)LVKHULHV
5HSRUW),3/5
2FKXPED3%2.LEDDUD',2EVHUYDWLRQVRQ%OXHJUHHQ$OJDO%ORRPVLQWKH2SHQ:DWHUVRI/DNH
9LFWRULD$IULFDQ-RXUQDORI(FRORJ\
2HUOHPDQV$0+05HVHDUFKRQWKH3URGXFWLRQRI6XJDU&DQHLQ.HQ\D06FWKHVLVDWWKH(LQGKRYHQ
8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\LQFORVHFRRSHUDWLRQZLWK&,&$78((LQGKRYHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV
2JDUDP '$ .DOHPD :6 /DNH 9LFWRULD (QYLURQPHQWDO 0DQDJHPHQW 3URJUDP )LQDO UHSRUW RQ
UHJLRQDOWDVN1R&ULWLFDO6RXUFHVRI,QGXVWULDODQG0XQLFLSDOSROOXWLRQ
2PRWL8$WDJD'2,VHQPLOD$(/HDFKLQJ/RVVHVRI1XWULHQWVLQ2LO3DOP3ODQWDWLRQV'HWHUPLQHG
E\7HQVLRQ/\VLPHWHUV3ODQWDQG6RLO
2UORYD $3 <DURVKHQNR /9 &RQWHQW RI 3HVWLFLGH DQG 0LQHUDO )HUWLOL]HUV LQ 5XQRII :DWHU RI
8]EHNLVWDQ,UULJDWLRQ)RUPLURYDQLH.RQWURO.DFKHVWYD3RYHUNKQRVWQ\NK9RG
2XDQR($5/RKDQL%17KDQK1&:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ&RQWUROLQ'HYHORSLQJ&RXQWULHV3URFHHGLQJV
RIWKH,QWHUQDWLRQ&RQIHUHQFHKHOGDW%DQJNRN7KDLODQG)HEU
3HLHUOV%/&DUDFR1)3DFH0/&ROH--+XPDQ,QIOXHQFHRQ5LYHU1LWURJHQ1DWXUH±
3LSHU %6 3OLQVWRQ 7 6XWFOLIIH -9 7KH :DWHU %DODQFH RI /DNH 9LFWRULD +\GURORJLFDO 6FLHQFHV
-RXUQDO
3LWFDLUQ&(5)RZOHU'*UDFH-'HSRVLWLRQRI)L[HG$WPRVSKHULF1LWURJHQDQG)ROLDU1LWURJHQ
&RQWHQWRI%U\RSK\WHVDQG&DOOXQDYXOJDULV/+XOO(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQ
5HFNKRZ.+6LPSVRQ-7$3URFHGXUH8VLQJ0RGHOOLQJDQG(UURU$QDO\VLVIRU3UHGLFWLRQRI/DNH
3KRVSKRUXV&RQFHQWUDWLRQIURP/DQG8VH,QIRUPDWLRQ&DQDGLDQ-RXUQDORI)LVKHULHVDQG$TXDWLF6FLHQFHV
5HJLRQDO$JULFXOWXUDO2IILFH%XNRED$QQXDO5HSRUWRQWKH5HYLHZRI6HDVRQ0LQLVWU\RI
$JULFXOWXUHDQG/LYHVWRFN'HYHORSPHQW5HJLRQDO$JULFXOWXUDO2IILFH%XNRED7DQ]DQLD
5HJLRQDO 7UDGH 2IILFH 0ZDQ]D 3URGXFWLRQ )LJXUHV IRU &RPSDQLHV LQ 0ZDQ]D 0ZDQ]D
7DQ]DQLD
5LFKDUGVRQ &- 1LFKROV '6 (FRORJLFDO $QDO\VLV RI :DVWHZDWHU 0DQDJHPHQW &ULWHULD LQ :HWODQG
(FRV\VWHPVLQWKH86$7KH8WUHFKW3ODQW(FRORJ\1HZV5HSRUW'HF
&KDSWHU
5LWWHU :) 5HGXFLQJ ,PSDFWV RI 1RQSRLQW 6RXUFH 3ROOXWLRQ IURP $JULFXOWXUH D 5HYLHZ -RXUQDO RI
(QYLURQPHQWDO6FLHQFHDQG+HDOWK$
5\DQ-'$IULFD
V*UHDW/DNHVLQ3HULO:RUOG:DWFK
6DQWVFKL3:6FKLQGOHU3:&KHPLFDODQG*HRFKHPLFDO6WXGLHVRI/DNH%LHO6FKZHL]HU=HLWVFKULIW
IU+\GURORJLH
6FKHUHQ3$*0%RVERRP-&1MDX.5DSLG$VVHVVPHQWRI:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQWKH&DWFKPHQW$UHD
RI/DNH9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD&HQWUHIRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RRSHUDWLRQ$FWLYLWLHV(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\
(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
6FKHUHQ 3$ $ 6\VWHPDWLF $SSURDFK WR /DNH :DWHU SROOXWLRQ $VVHVVPHQW :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ /DNH
9LFWRULD(DVW$IULFD(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\
6FKHUHQ3$*0%RVERRP-&1MDX./HPPHQV$0&$VVHVVPHQWRI:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQWKH
&DWFKPHQW$UHDRI/DNH9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD-RXUQDORI(DVWHUQ$IULFDQ5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW
6FKHUHQ 3$ 0LUDPER 9 /HPPHQV $0 -DQVVHQ )- .DWLPD -+ D $VVHVVPHQW RI 3ROOXWLRQ
6RXUFHVDQG6RFLRHFRQRPLF&LUFXPVWDQFHV5HODWHGWRWKH(XWURSKLFDWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH
/DNH9LFWRULD6\PSRVLXPLQ.DPSDOD8JDQGD0D\
6FKHUHQ 3$ =DQWLQJ +$ /HPPHQV $0 E (VWLPDWLRQ RI :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD
$SSOLFDWLRQDQG(ODERUDWLRQRIWKH5DSLG$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGRORJ\-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW
6FKQHLGHU*YDQ'LMN'(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW0HDVXUHVIRU3UHYHQWLQJIXUWKHU'HWHULRUDWLRQRI
$IULFDQ)UHVKZDWHU%RGLHV7KH&DVHRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULD%DVLQ,Q5HPDQH.(G$IULFDQ,QODQG)LVKHULHV
$TXDFXOWXUHDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQW)LVKLQJ1HZV%RRNV%ODFNZHOO2[IRUG8.
6HLW]LQJHU 63 'HQLWULILFDWLRQ LQ )UHVKZDWHU DQG &RDVWDO 0DULQH (FRV\VWHPV (FRORJLFDO DQG
*HRFKHPLFDO6LJQLILFDQFH/LPQRORJ\DQG2FHDQRJUDSK\
6HLW]LQJHU63.URH]H&*OREDO'LVWULEXWLRQRI1LWURXV2[LGH3URGXFWLRQDQG1,QSXWVLQ)UHVKZDWHU
DQG&RDVWDO0DULQH(FRV\VWHPV*OREDO%LRJHRFKHPLFDO&\FOHV±
6HQH .- 3OLQVWRQ '7 $ 5HYLHZ DQG 8SGDWH RI WKH +\GURORJ\ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD LQ (DVW $IULFD
+\GURORJLFDO6FLHQFHV-RXUQDO
6PDOLQJ ($0 6WRRUYRJHO -- :LQGPHLMHU 31 &DOFXODWLQJ 6RLO 1XWULHQW %DODQFHV LQ $IULFD DW
'LIIHUHQW6FDOHV,,'LVWULFW6FDOH)HUWLOL]HU5HVHDUFK
7DOOLQJ-)7KH$QQXDO&\FOHRI6WUDWLILFDWLRQDQG3K\WRSODQNWRQ*URZWKLQ/DNH9LFWRULD(DVW$IULFD
,QWHUQDWLRQDOHU5HYXHGHU*HVDPWHQ+\GURELRORJLH
7DOOLQJ-),%7DOOLQJ7KH&KHPLFDO&RPSRVLWLRQRI$IULFDQ/DNH:DWHUV,QWHUQDWLRQDOHU5HYXHGHU
*HVDPWHP+\GURELRORJLH
7DQ]DQLD)RUHVWU\$FWLRQ3ODQD)RUHVWU\$FWLRQ3ODQIRU0ZDQ]D5HJLRQ7DQ]DQLD
7DQ]DQLD)RUHVWU\$FWLRQ3ODQE)RUHVWU\$FWLRQ3ODQIRU.DJHUD5HJLRQ7DQ]DQLD
7DQ]DQLD)RUHVWU\$FWLRQ3ODQF)RUHVWU\$FWLRQ3ODQIRU0DUD5HJLRQ7DQ]DQLD
7KRPDQQ590XHOOHU-$3ULQFLSOHVRI6XUIDFH:DWHU4XDOLW\0RGHOOLQJDQG&RQWURO+DUSHU5RZ
3XEOLVKHUV1HZ<RUN
8QLWHG1DWLRQV6WDWLVWLFDO<HDUERRNIRUWLHWKLVVXH1HZ<RUN
8QLWHG 1DWLRQV &RXQWU\ 3RSXODWLRQ 6WDWLVWLFV DQG 3URMHFWLRQV ± )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUDO
2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV5RPH
9HUOLQGHQ 3 5ZDQGD %XUXQGL &RXQWU\ 6HULHV 5R\DO 7URSLFDO ,QVWLWXWH .,7 $PVWHUGDP 7KH
1HWKHUODQGV
9LJKL0&KLDXGDQL*(XWURSKLFDWLRQLQ(XURSHWKH5ROHRI$JULFXOWXUDO$FWLYLWLHV,Q+RGJVRQ(
(G5HYLHZVLQ(QYLURQPHQWDO7R[LFRORJ\(OVHYLHU6FLHQFH3XEOLVKHUV%9
9LVVHU6&KHPLFDO&RPSRVLWLRQRI5DLQ:DWHULQ.DPSDOD8JDQGDDQGLWV5HODWLRQWR0HWHRURORJLFDO
DQG7RSRJUDSKLFDO&RQGLWLRQV-RXUQDORI*HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD
:DOWHUV '7 0DO]HU */ 1LWURJHQ 0DQDJHPHQW DQG 1LWULILFDWLRQ ,QKLELWRU (IIHFWV RQ 1LWURJHQ
8UHD,,1LWURJHQ/HDFKLQJDQG%DODQFH6RLO6FLHQFHV6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD-RXUQDO
:DXFKRSH 5' /HRQDUG 5$ 0D[LPXP 3HVWLFLGH &RQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ $JULFXOWXUDO 5XQRII $
6HPLHPSLULFDO3UHGLFWLRQ)RUPXOD-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO4XDOLW\
:LWWH ) *ROGVPLGW 7 *RXGVZDDUG 3& /LJWYRHW : YDQ 2LMHQ 0-3 :DQLQN -+ D 6SHFLHV
([WLQFWLRQDQG&RQFRPLWDQW(FRORJLFDO&KDQJHVLQ/DNH9LFWRULD1HWKHUODQGV-RXUQDORI=RRORJ\
:LWWH)*ROGVPLGW7:DQLQN-YDQ2LMHQ0*RXGVZDDUG.:LWWH0DDV(%RXWRQ1E7KH
'HVWUXFWLRQRIDQ(QGHPLF6SHFLHV)ORFN4XDQWLWDWLYH'DWDRQWKH'HFOLQHRIWKH+DSORFKURPLQH&LFKOLGVRI
/DNH9LFWRULD(QYLURQPHQW%LRORJ\DQG)LVKHULHV
:RUOG%DQN$JULFXOWXUDO6HFWRU0HPRUDQGXP8JDQGD5HSRUW1R8*8JDQGD
:RUOG %DQN81(3 5HJLRQDO 3URJUDP IRU (QYLURQPHQW 0DQDJHPHQW RI /DNH 9LFWRULD 5HSRUW RI WKH
1RYHPEHU5HFRQQDLVVDQFH0LVVLRQ
:RUOG%DQN81(3)$2/DNH9LFWRULD(QYLURQPHQW0DQDJHPHQW3URJUDP$LGH0HPRLUHRIWKH0DUFK
0LVVLRQ
:+2 :RUOG +HDOWK 2UJDQLVDWLRQ 5DSLG $VVHVVPHQW RI 6RXUFHV RI $LU :DWHU DQG /DQG 3ROOXWLRQ
:+22IIVHW3XEOLFDWLRQ1R*HQHYD
=DQWLQJ+$$6\VWHPDWLF$VVHVVPHQWRI:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQ/DNH9LFWRULD(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI
7HFKQRORJ\)DFXOW\RI7HFKQRORJ\0DQDJHPHQW06FWKHVLV(LQGKRYHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV
&KDSWHU
&KDSWHU
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
&DVHVWXG\1R
&KDSWHUSUHVHQWVWKHUHVXOWVRIDQ,:3$RIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDEDVHGXSRQWKHWKHRUHWLFDO
DQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNSUHVHQWHGLQFKDSWHU6HFWLRQVWDUWVZLWKDQLQWURGXFWLRQ
WR WKH FDVH GHVFULELQJ LWV FRQWH[W DQG SUREOHP DQG GHILQLQJ WKH UHVHDUFK REMHFWLYHV
ERXQGDULHVDQGFRQVWUDLQWV7KHDFWXDODVVHVVPHQWLVSUHVHQWHGE\PHDQVRIUHSULQWVRIWZR
SXEOLFDWLRQV6FKHUHQHWDODE7KHILUVWSXEOLFDWLRQSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQ DVVHVVHV HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ SUREOHPV LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD RQ D UHJLRQDO VFDOH 7KH
VHFRQG SXEOLFDWLRQ SUHVHQWHG LQ VHFWLRQ UHSRUWV RQ D GHWDLOHG DVVHVVPHQW RI RQH RI WKH
VHQVLWLYHODJRRQV\VWHPVZLWKLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDUHJLRQWKH(EULp/DJRRQLQ,YRU\&RDVW
)XUWKHUPRUHVHFWLRQVWRSUHVHQWDQRYHUDOODQDO\VLVRIWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWDQ
DQDO\VLV RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ GDWD DQG UHVXOWV DQG D VXPPDU\ RI WKH PDLQ FRQFOXVLRQV DQG
UHFRPPHQGDWLRQVIROORZLQJIURPWKHDVVHVVPHQW
,QWURGXFWLRQWRWKHFDVH
3UREOHPGHILQLWLRQ
7KH *XOI RI *XLQHD *2* FRDVWDO
]RQH VSUHDGV DORQJ WKH :HVW WR
&HQWUDO ]RQH RI WKH $IULFDQ
FRQWLQHQWEHWZHHQODWLWXGHVž6DQG
ž 1 DQG ORQJLWXGHV ž : DQG ž
( 7KH FRDVWDO VWDWHV ZLWKLQ WKLV
]RQH FRPSULVH RI ,YRU\ &RDVW
*KDQD 7RJR %HQLQ 1LJHULD
&DPHURRQ (TXDWRULDO *XLQHD
*DERQ &RQJR WKH LVODQG VWDWHV RI
6DR7RPHDQG3ULQFLSHDQGSDUWVRI
/LEHULDDQG=DLUH)LJXUH
• )LJXUH 0DSRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDGLYLGHGLQWRVHJPHQWV$
:HVWHUQ*2*%&HQWUDO*2*&6RXWKHUQ*2*'
6RXWKZHVW*2*0RGLILHGIURP$ZRVLNDDQG$Ep
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
'HULYLQJ PDLQO\ IURP WKH KLVWRU\ RI WKH UHJLRQ
V HDUO\ FRQWDFW ZLWK (XURSHDQ VHDIDUHUV
QHDUO\ DOO PDMRU FLWLHV KDUERXUV DLUSRUWV LQGXVWULHV H[WHQVLYH DJULFXOWXUDO SODQWDWLRQV DQG
RWKHU VRFLRHFRQRPLF LQIUDVWUXFWXUHV LQ WKH *2* UHJLRQ DUH ORFDWHG LQ WKH FRDVWDO DUHDV
3ROOXWLRQ IURP WKHVH YDULRXV VRXUFHV DIIHFWV WKH ZDWHUV RI WKH *2* DQG WKH QDWXUDO OLYLQJ
UHVRXUFHVWKDWH[LVWWKHUHLQ+DUGPDQ0RXQWIRUGHWDO,EH
$VGLVFXVVHGE\$FTXDKD$MDR$ZRVLNDDQG,EH%LQH\'XIRXU
'XIRXU HW DO *RUGRQ *XLUDO DQG *XLUDO HW DO WKH
LQFUHDVLQJSROOXWLRQORDGIURPDQWKURSRJHQLFVRXUFHVKDVFDXVHGDGHJHQHUDWLRQRIWKHZDWHU
TXDOLW\RIWKH*2*ZDWHUV\VWHPUHVXOWLQJLQDVWDWHRIHXWURSKLFDWLRQDQGORFDODQR[LFLW\LQLWV
HVWXDULHV DQG FRDVWDO ODJRRQ V\VWHPV 7KH PDMRU HQYLURQPHQWDO LPSDFWV DULVLQJ IURP WKH
GHJHQHUDWHG ZDWHU TXDOLW\ FRQFHUQ SXEOLF KHDOWK SUREOHPV ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV
FRQWDPLQDWLRQRIZDWHUXVHGIRUGULQNLQJLUULJDWLRQDQGSURGXFWLRQZDWHUKDELWDWGHJUDGDWLRQ
ORVV RI ILVKHU\ UHVRXUFHV DQG ELRGLYHUVLW\ DQG ORVV RI DPHQLWLHV DQG WRXULVPUHFUHDWLRQDO
RSSRUWXQLWLHV )RU HYLGHQFH RI VXFK LPSDFWV VHH IRU H[DPSOH $FTXDK D $MDR DQG
$QXULJZR$MD\L$ZRVLNDHWDO'RVVRHWDO'XFKDVVLQHWDO
'XIRXUHWDO.RXDVVLHWDO0pWRQJRHWDO3DJqVDQG
3DJqVDQG&LWHDX
3DUWLFXODUO\ DIIHFWHG DUH WKH VHPLHQFORVHG FRDVWDO ODJRRQ V\VWHPV ZKLFK VSUHDG DORQJ WKH
FRDVWOLQHRIWKH*2*DQGZKLFKVKRUHVKDUERXUWKHPDLQXUEDQDQGLQGXVWULDOFHQWUHVVXFKDV
$ELGMDQ ,YRU\ &RDVW $FFUD *KDQD &RWRQRX %HQLQ /DJRV 1LJHULD DQG 'RXDOD
&DPHURRQ7KHVDQLWDU\LQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQWKHVHODUJHDQGUDSLGO\JURZLQJFLWLHVLVRIYHU\ORZ
VWDQGDUGDVDFRQVHTXHQFHRIZKLFKPRVWGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOHIIOXHQWVGUDLQXQWUHDWHGLQWR
WKHODJRRQVDQGLWVWULEXWDU\ULYHUV([DPSOHVRIWKLVDUHSUHVHQWHGE\IRUH[DPSOH$MDR
$MDR DQG $QXULJZR )0:+ DQG ,EH IRU WKH FDVH RI 1LJHULD 7KH
UHVXOWLQJ GHJHQHUDWLRQ RI ZDWHU TXDOLW\ GLUHFWO\ DIIHFWV LWV ULSDULDQ SRSXODWLRQ 0RUHRYHU
EHFDXVHRIWKHHFRORJLFDOIXQFWLRQRIWKHODJRRQVŠLQWHUPVRIUHSURGXFWLYLW\RIDOONLQGVRI
PDULQH VSHFLHV Š WKLV VWDWH RI SROOXWLRQ KDV LPSRUWDQW FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU WKH *2* PDULQH
HFRV\VWHPDVDZKROH
5HFRJQLVLQJWKDWPDULQHSROOXWLRQDQGOLYLQJPDULQHUHVRXUFHVUHVSHFWQRSROLWLFDOERXQGDULHV
DQG IHZ JHRJUDSKLFDO RQHV WKH FRXQWULHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ KDYH UHDOLVHG WKDW RQO\ WKURXJK D
FRQFHUWHG UHJLRQDO DSSURDFK WKH RQJRLQJ GHJUDGDWLRQ RI WKHLU PDULQH HQYLURQPHQW FDQ EH
FRXQWHUDFWHG8QGHUDSLORWSURMHFW:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ&RQWURODQG%LRGLYHUVLW\&RQVHUYDWLRQLQ
WKH *2*/DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHP /0( IXQGHG E\ WKH *OREDO (QYLURQPHQW )DFLOLW\
*() ILYH FRXQWULHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ Š %HQLQ &DPHURRQ ,YRU\ &RDVW *KDQD 1LJHULD Š
WKHUHIRUH DJUHHG WR DGRSW FRPPRQ VWUDWHJLHV DQG PHFKDQLVPV LQ WKH EDWWOH WR UHVWRUH DQG
SURWHFWWKHKHDOWKRIWKH*2*/0(7RJRMRLQHGODWHUDVDVL[WKSDUWQHU7KHHIIRUWLVEDVHG
RQWKHFRQFHSWRI/DUJH0DULQH(FRV\VWHPV/0(DVSUHVHQWHGE\6KHUPDQ
6KHUPDQDQG6RORZDQG6KHUPDQHWDOZKLFKUHFRJQLVHVWKDWWREHVXFFHVVIXO
DQHFRV\VWHPPDQDJHPHQWFRQFHSWPXVWEHOLQNHGZLWKWKHPDQDJHPHQWRIPDULQHFDWFKPHQW
EDVLQVZKLFKUHSUHVHQWDUHDVDGMDFHQWWR/0(VDQGIURPZKHUHPDQ\RIWKHLPSDFWVGXHWR
KXPDQDFWLYLWLHVRULJLQDWH
&KDSWHU
5HJLRQDOPRQLWRULQJDQGDVVHVVPHQWRISROOXWLRQDQGHFRV\VWHPKHDOWKXQGHUWKH*2*/0(
SURMHFWKDVDOUHDG\SURYLGHGDPRUHDFFXUDWHSLFWXUHRIWKHFRQGLWLRQVRIZDWHUVDQGWKHHIIHFWV
RI SROOXWLRQ IURP YDULRXV VRXUFHV +RZHYHU PXFK ZRUN VWLOO QHHGV WR EH GRQH LQ RUGHU WR
GHYHORSDXVHIXOEDVLVIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHPRVWHIIHFWLYHDQGHIILFLHQW
SROLFLHVDQGVWUDWHJLHVIRUWKHSURWHFWLRQDQGLPSURYHPHQWRIFRQGLWLRQVRIWKH*2*/0(
2EMHFWLYHVRIDQDO\VLV
7KHUHVHDUFKSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVFKDSWHUEXLOGVXSRQDQGVXSSRUWVWKHDFWLYLWLHVXQGHUWDNHQXQGHU
WKH*2*/0(SURMHFWDQGRWKHULQLWLDWLYHVWRLPSURYHDQGSURWHFWWKHHQYLURQPHQWFRQGLWLRQV
RIWKH*2*7RGRVRLWVREMHFWLYHLV
WRGHYHORSDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQFRQWUROPHDVXUHVIRU
WKH*XOIRI*XLQHDRQWKHEDVLVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
7KURXJKDQ,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWLWLVDWWHPSWHGWRHVWDEOLVKDQDVPXFKDV
SRVVLEOHTXDQWLWDWLYHPRGHORIWKHZDWHUV\VWHP7KLVZLOOEHDFKLHYHGWKURXJK
S DVVHVVLQJWKHGULYLQJIRUFHVQDWXUDODQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHSROOXWLRQSUREOHP
S DVVHVVLQJWKHSUHVVXUHVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDVVRFLDWHGZLWKIURPWKHVHGULYLQJIRUFHV
S DVVHVVLQJWKHLPSDFWRIWKHSUHVVXUHVRQWKHVWDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQW
S DVVHVVLQJWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIFKDQJHVLQWKHVWDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWRQQDWXUDODQGVRFLRHFRQRPLF
FRQGLWLRQV
S WKURXJKWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHDERYHPHQWLRQHGSURFHVVHVLGHQWLI\LQJDQGDVVHVVLQJWKHUHVSRQVH
RSWLRQWKURXJKZKLFKHQYLURQPHQWDOPDQDJHPHQWRIWKHVHZDWHUERGLHVPD\EHSRVVLEOH
%RXQGDULHVDQGFRQVWUDLQWV
7KH ERXQGDULHV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW DUH SULQFLSDOO\ GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP LWVHOI ,Q
SK\VLFDO WHUPV WKH\ DUH GHOLQHDWHG E\ WKH PDULQH FDWFKPHQW EDVLQ ZKLFK H[WHQGV ZLGHO\
DFURVVWKH:HVWHUQDQG&HQWUDO$IULFDQFRQWLQHQW+RZHYHUIRUWKHVDNHRIWKLVDVVHVVPHQW
WKH VWXG\ DUHD KDV EHHQ OLPLWHG WR WKH VL[ PDLQ FRXQWULHV ERUGHULQJ WKH ZHVWHUQ DQG FHQWUDO
VHJPHQWVRIWKH*2*)LJXUHSDJHŠ,YRU\&RDVW*KDQD%HQLQ7RJR1LJHULD
DQG&DPHURRQŠZKLFKLVWKHDUHDFRYHUHGE\WKH*2*/0(SURMHFW,QHFRORJLFDOWHUPVWKH
DVVHVVPHQWFRQFHQWUDWHVPDLQO\RQWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPRIWKH*2*
/0(ZKLFKFRQFHUQVRUJDQLFSROOXWLRQORDGVDOWKRXJKVRPHDVSHFWVRILQRUJDQLFSROOXWLRQ
VROLGZDVWHDQGDLUSROOXWLRQDUHFRQVLGHUHGLQVHFWLRQ$VLWFRQFHUQVWKHVRFLRHFRQRPLF
V\VWHPWKHDVVHVVPHQWLQFOXGHVWKHGULYLQJIRUFHVEHKLQGWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSUHVVXUHVDVZHOO
DV WKH FRQVHTXHQWLDO VRFLRHFRQRPLF LPSDFWV RI WKH GHJUDGDWLRQ RI WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO
FRQGLWLRQRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPZLWKLQWKHERXQGDULHVRIWKHPDULQHFDWFKPHQWEDVLQ
,WLVQRWHGWKDW7RJRLVLQFOXGHGRQO\SDUWO\LQWKHDVVHVVPHQWVLQFHLWMRLQHGWKH*2*/0(SURMHFWUHIHUUHGWRLQ
VHFWLRQODWHU
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
$VVWDWHGLQVHFWLRQWKHDVVHVVPHQWFRQVLGHUVWKHFRPSOHWH'36,5IUDPHZRUN7KHIRFXV
LVKRZHYHURQWKHµGULYLQJIRUFHV¶µSUHVVXUH¶µVWDWH¶DQGµUHVSRQVH¶'36DQG5SDUWVRI
WKH IUDPHZRUN VHH )LJXUH SDJH IRU ZKLFK WKH REMHFWLYH LV WR DSSO\ D TXDQWLWDWLYH
DSSURDFK 7KH VWDWHLPSDFW UHODWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN LV RQO\ DVVHVVHG
TXDOLWDWLYHO\
$ NH\ FRQVWUDLQW WR WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ RI WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD LV WKH IDFW WKDW
TXDQWLWDWLYH GDWD RQ ZDWHU TXDOLW\ DQG UHODWHG DVSHFWV VXFK DV SROOXWLRQ ORDGV IURP YDULRXV
VRXUFHV DQG ZDWHUTXDOLW\RILQDQGRXWIORZLQJULYHUVLVVFDUFHDQGZKHUHDYDLODEOHRIWHQ
LQFRQVLVWHQWDQGXQUHOLDEOH7KHDSSOLHGDVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJLHVDVGHVFULEHGLQFKDSWHU
ZHUH WKHUHIRUH VSHFLILFDOO\ GHYHORSHG DQG DGDSWHG WR FRSH ZLWK WKLV GDWD VFDUFHQHVV
1HYHUWKHOHVVUHOLDELOLW\RIUHVXOWVLVDQLPSRUWDQWSRLQWRIDWWHQWLRQDQGLVGLVFXVVHGLQGHWDLOLQ
VHFWLRQ)XUWKHUPRUHEHFDXVHRIWKHODUJHVL]HRIWKH*2*DQGLWVFDWFKPHQWDUHDLWKDVQRW
EHHQ SRVVLEOH WR DVVHVV WKH FRPSOHWH DUHD WR WKH VDPH OHYHO RI GHWDLO 7KH VWUDWHJ\ WDNHQ LV
WKHUHIRUHWRDVVHVVILUVWRIDOOWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQDWDKLJKHUUHJLRQZLGHOHYHO2QWKH
EDVLV RI WKH RYHUYLHZ WKXV DFKLHYHG WKH PRVW DIIHFWHG SDUW RI WKH *2* LQ WHUPV RI
HQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQLVLGHQWLILHGDQGDVVHVVHGLQPRUHGHWDLO
5HDGHUVJXLGH
7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW DUH SUHVHQWHG E\ PHDQV RI UHSULQWV RI WZR HDUOLHU
SXEOLVKHGVXEPLWWHGDUWLFOHV$QRYHUYLHZRIWKHDVSHFWVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNFRYHUHGE\
HDFKRIWKHVHSDSHUVLVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH
• 7DEOH
2YHUYLHZRIDUWLFOHVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVFKDSWHULQFOXGLQJWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHDVSHFWVLQ
UHODWLRQWRWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
6HFWLRQ $UWLFOH
$VSHFWV
6FKHUHQ 3$ ,EH $& -DQVVHQ )- /HPPHQV $0 (QYLURQPHQWDO
3ROOXWLRQLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD$5HJLRQDO$SSURDFK0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ
,,,,
6FKHUHQ 3$ .URH]H & -DQVVHQ )- +RUGLMN / 3WDVLQVNL .- ,QWHJUDWHG :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ $VVHVVPHQW RI WKH (EULp /DJRRQ ,YRU\ &RDVW :HVW
$IULFDVXEPLWWHGWR-RXUQDORI0DULQH6\VWHPV
,,,,,,,9
7KHILUVWRIWKHSXEOLFDWLRQVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH6FKHUHQHWDODUHSRUWVRQWKHUHVXOWV
RI DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ LQ WKH *2* RQ D UHJLRQZLGH OHYHO 7KH
VHFRQG UHVHDUFK SDSHU 6FKHUHQ HW DO E SUHVHQWV DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI RQH RI WKH FRDVWDO
ODJRRQV\VWHPVŠWKH(EULp/DJRRQLQ,YRU\&RDVW2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHUHVXOWVRIVHFWLRQ
WKHODWWHUZDVLGHQWLILHGDVRQHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOO\PRVWDIIHFWHGSDUWVRIWKH*2*/0(
DQGLQOLQHZLWKVHFWLRQWKHUHIRUHVHOHFWHGDVDVXEFDVHIRUGHWDLOHGDVVHVVPHQW$ILQDO
DQDO\VLVRIWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWLVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQIROORZHGE\DQDQDO\VLVRI
XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ GDWD DQG UHVXOWV VHFWLRQ DQG D VXPPDU\ RI WKH PDLQ FRQFOXVLRQV DQG
UHFRPPHQGDWLRQVVHFWLRQ
)RUDFODVVLILFDWLRQRIDVSHFWVUHIHUVWR)LJXUHDQGDGMRLQLQJWH[W
&KDSWHU
(QYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD$UHJLRQDODSSURDFK
3$6FKHUHQ$&,EH)--DQVVHQ$0/HPPHQV0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ
5HSULQWHGZLWKSHUPLVVLRQZLWKPLQRUHGLWRULDOFKDQJHV
$EVWUDFW
(QYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD FRDVWDO ]RQH KDV FDXVHG HXWURSKLFDWLRQ DQG
R[\JHQ GHSOHWLRQ LQ WKH ODJRRQ V\VWHPV SDUWLFXODUO\ DURXQG WKH XUEDQ FHQWUHV UHVXOWLQJ LQ
GHFUHDVHGILVKUHSURGXFWLRQOHYHOVDQGZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHV$SROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDVVHVVPHQW
ZDV XQGHUWDNHQ E\ VL[ FRXQWULHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ DV D ILUVW VWHS LQ GHILQLQJ D UHJLRQZLGH
(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW3ODQ5HVXOWVVKRZWKDWKRXVHKROGVSURGXFHRIVROLGZDVWH
,QGXVWU\KRZHYHULVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUVXEVWDQWLDODPRXQWVRIKD]DUGRXVZDVWHVSHFLILFDOO\WKH
1LJHULDQSHWUROHXPLQGXVWU\7KHODWWHULVDOVRUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHVSLOOLQJRIODUJHDPRXQWVRI
RLO %2' ORDG IURP LQGXVWULDO HIIOXHQWV LV VOLJKWO\ ODUJHU WKDQ GRPHVWLF ORDGV LQ WKH
LQGXVWULDOLVHG FRDVWDO ]RQH :DVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW V\VWHPV DUH HLWKHU DEVHQW RU LQDGHTXDWH
$SDUWIURPODUJHVFDOHJDVIODULQJLQ1LJHULDDLUSROOXWLRQLQWHUPVRI&2[+&12[DQG62
HPLVVLRQVLVFRQWULEXWHGPDLQO\E\WUDIILF3DUWLFXODWHVRULJLQDWHPDLQO\IURPLQGXVWULHVDQG
GRPHVWLFELRPDVVEXUQLQJ
,QWURGXFWLRQ
7KH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH *XOI RI
*XLQHD*2*FRDVWDOHFRV\VWHPWR
VRFLRHFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW LV
ZLGHO\UHFRJQLVHGRQDFFRXQWRILWV
YDVW UHVRXUFHV KRZHYHU WKH KHDOWK
RI WKH FRDVWDO RFHDQ LV LQFUHDVLQJO\
LQ MHRSDUG\ DV D UHVXOW RI D UDSLG
&{WHG
,YRLUH
LQWHQVLILFDWLRQ RI KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV
*KDQD
7RJR
+DUGPDQ0RXQWIRUG HW DO %HQLQ
,QILYHFRXQWULHVLQWKHUHJLRQ
1LJHULD
%HQLQ &DPHURRQ ,YRU\ &RDVW
&DPHURRQ
*KDQD 1LJHULD HPEDUNHG RQ D
MRLQW DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH VWDWH RI KHDOWKRIWKHFRDVWDOHFRV\VWHPDQG • )LJXUH 0DSKLJKOLJKWLQJWKHVL[SURMHFWFRXQWULHVLQWKH*XOIRI
*XLQHD
D GHILQLWLRQ RI FRPPRQ VWUDWHJLHV
DJDLQVW HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH *2* FDWFKPHQW EDVLQ $ VL[WK SDUWQHU 7RJR
MRLQHG LQ )LJXUH 7KH HIIRUW LV EDVHG RQ WKH /DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHP DSSURDFK
6KHUPDQ 6KHUPDQ HW DO ZKLFK UHFRJQLVHV WKDW PDULQH SROOXWLRQ DQG OLYLQJ
UHVRXUFHVUHVSHFWQRSROLWLFDOERXQGDULHVDQGIHZJHRJUDSKLFDORQHV,WZDVXQGHUWDNHQXQGHUD
UHJLRQZLGHSURMHFWILQDQFHGE\WKH*OREDO(QYLURQPHQW)DFLOLW\ZLWKWKHWHFKQLFDODVVLVWDQFH
RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV ,QGXVWULDO 'HYHORSPHQW 2UJDQLVDWLRQ DQG RWKHU 81 DQG QRQ81
RUJDQLVDWLRQV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
7DEOHSURYLGHVDQRYHUYLHZRIWKHVRFLRHFRQRPLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHUHJLRQ'HULYLQJ
PDLQO\ IURP HDUO\ FRQWDFWV ZLWK (XURSHDQ VHDIDUHUV WKH FRDVWDO ]RQH LV WKH VLWH RI PRVW
PDMRU FLWLHV KDUERXUV DLUSRUWV LQGXVWULHV DQG RWKHU VRFLRHFRQRPLF LQIUDVWUXFWXUH 2I WKH
QHDUO\PLOOLRQLQKDELWDQWVRIWKHVL[FRXQWULHVDSSUR[LPDWHO\OLYHLQFRDVWDOXUEDQ
VHWWOHPHQWV7DEOH$VDUHVXOWRIPLJUDWLRQIURPUXUDODUHDVDQGQHLJKERXULQJODQGORFNHG
FRXQWULHVFRDVWDOXUEDQSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLVVXEVWDQWLDOO\KLJKHUWKDQWKHUHJLRQZLGHDYHUDJH
RI 0pWRQJR HW DO 'HVSLWH VRPH PHDVXUH RI HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW SRYHUW\
UDWHVKDYHEHHQGHFOLQLQJRQO\VORZO\
,QGXVWULDO DFWLYLWLHV DUH FRQFHQWUDWHG DURXQG WKH FRDVWDO XUEDQ FHQWUHV ZKHUH WR RI
LQGXVWULDOSURGXFWLRQWDNHVSODFHDQGZKLFKKRVWWKHPDMRUKDUERXUV,QGXVWULDOGHYHORSPHQW
VWDUWHG LQ WKH V DW WKH SHULPHWHUV RI WKH WKHQ H[LVWLQJ FRDVWDO FRPPXQLWLHV EXW LQ WKH
DEVHQFHRIXUEDQSODQQLQJEHFDPHLQWHJUDWHGZLWKWLPHZLWKWKHH[SDQGLQJUHVLGHQWLDODUHDV
3UHVHQWO\LQGXVWU\DFFRXQWVIRURI*'3UHJLRQZLGHEXWVXEVWDQWLDOO\PRUHLQ1LJHULD
ZKHUHRLOH[SORLWDWLRQUHODWHGLQGXVWULHVIRUPWKHFRUHRIWKHFRXQWU\
VHFRQRP\&KLNZHQGX
)HGHUDO (QYLURQPHQWDO 3URWHFWLRQ $JHQF\ ,QGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQ FDQ EH
FDWHJRULVHG LQWR HOHPHQWDU\ SURGXFWV DJURIRRG SURFHVVLQJ EHYHUDJHV WH[WLOH DQG OHDWKHU
VRDSDQGGHWHUJHQWVDQGFRQVWUXFWLRQPDWHULDOVDQGSURFHVVLQJRIUDZPDWHULDOVH[SORLWHGLQ
WKH UHJLRQ SHWUROHXP LQ 1LJHULD &DPHURRQ ,YRU\ &RDVW DQG *KDQD DOXPLQLXP LQ *KDQD
&DPHURRQDQG1LJHULDLURQDQGVWHHOLQ1LJHULDDQG,YRU\&RDVWDQGSKRVSKDWHLQ7RJRHWF
)HUWLOL]HUDQGSHVWLFLGHVSKDUPDFHXWLFDOVSDSHUDQGSXOSDQGSODVWLFVLQGXVWU\H[LVWLQVRPH
RIWKHFRXQWULHV
2WKHUHFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVLQWKHFRDVWDO]RQHFRQFHUQPLQLQJDJULFXOWXUHIRUHVWU\DQGWRXULVP
0RVWQRWDEO\DUHWKHHIIHFWVRIODUJHVFDOHRLOH[SORLWDWLRQLQ1LJHULDFRQFHQWUDWHGDURXQGWKH
1LJHU'HOWD$QHVWLPDWHGPRIRLOLVVSLOOHGLQDERXWDFFLGHQWVDQQXDOO\$ZREDMR
ZLWKGHYDVWDWLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVVXFKDVPDVVILVKPRUWDOLW\DQGGHVWUXFWLRQRI
FULWLFDO KDELWDWV 2GX DQG ,PHYERUH 3RZHOO 6DHQJHU HW DO $SDUW IURP
1LJHULDDJULFXOWXUHLVWKHGRPLQDQWHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\LQWKHFRXQWULHVFRQFHQWUDWHGPDLQO\LQ
ODUJH SODQWDWLRQV RI FDVK FURSV VXFK DV RLO SDOP UXEEHU FRFRQXW DQG IUXLWV SLQHDSSOHV
EDQDQDVQH[WWRIRRGFURSVVXFKDVPDL]HSODQWDLQFDVDYDULFHDQGYHJHWDEOHV$PDMRULW\RI
WKH UXUDO SRSXODWLRQ LV LQYROYHG LQ VXEVLVWHQFH IDUPLQJ 7KH GHJUDGDWLRQ RI VRLOV WKURXJK
GHIRUHVWDWLRQDQGDJULFXOWXUDOH[SORLWDWLRQKDVUHVXOWHGLQLQFUHDVHGVRLOHURVLRQDQGUXQRIIDQG
OHDNDJH RI QXWULHQWV WR VXUIDFH DQG JURXQG ZDWHUV $OWKRXJK WKH XVH RI SHVWLFLGHV DQG
LQVHFWLFLGHVIRUPRVWRIWKHVHFURSVLVQRWH[FHVVLYHLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\EDQQHGDJURFKHPLFDOVVXFK
DV''7DOGULQDQGOLQGDQHDUHVWLOOZLGHO\DSSOLHG7RXULVPDORQJWKHFRDVWOLQHLVVWLOOOLPLWHG
EXWKROGVJUHDWSURPLVHIRUWKHIXWXUH
$OWKRXJK LQFUHDVLQJ DWWHQWLRQ LV JLYHQ WR PRQLWRULQJ RI WKH VWDWH RI WKH HQYLURQPHQW LQ WKH
UHJLRQGDWDLVVWLOOERWKVSDUVHDQGVFDWWHUHG$VSDUWRIDUHJLRQZLGHH[HUFLVHWKHFRXQWULHV
WKHUHIRUH HPEDUNHG RQ D FROOHFWLRQ RI EDVHOLQH GDWD RQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ WKURXJK
FROOHFWLRQRIH[LVWLQJGDWDDPRQLWRULQJSURJUDPIRUWKHLUFRDVWDODQGPDULQHZDWHUVDQGDQ
DVVHVVPHQW RI VRXUFHV RI SROOXWLRQ 7KLV DUWLFOH LV UHVWULFWHG WR D SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH IDFWXDO
UHVXOWVRIWKLVDVVHVVPHQW7KHLPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKHVHUHVXOWVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\PDNLQJ
DUHGLVFXVVHGLQ6FKHUHQDQG,EH
&KDSWHU
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
&RDVWDOXUEDQSRSXODWLRQRIWRWDOXUEDQSRSXODWLRQ
3RYHUW\QDWLRQDOKHDGFRXQWLQGH[RISRSXODWLRQ
*13SHUFDSLWD86
3URMHFWHGDQQXDO*13SHUFDSLWDJURZWK
3URMHFWHGDQQXDO*'3JURZWK
$JULFXOWXUHRI*'3
,QGXVWU\RI*'3
0DQXIDFWXULQJRI*'3
*KDQD
7RJR
%HQLQ 1LJHULD &DPHU
RRQ
6HUYLFHVRI*'3
6RXUFH:RUOG%DQNDSDUWIURPGDWDRQFRDVWDODQGXUEDQSRSXODWLRQ:RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH
$YHUDJHDQQXDOSRSXODWLRQJURZWKIRU6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD
$YHUDJHXUEDQSRSXODWLRQIRU6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD
$YHUDJH*13SHUFDSLWDIRU6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD86
*'386ELOOLRQV
(FRQRP\
,YRU\
&RDVW
6RFLRHFRQRPLFSDUDPHWHUVIRUWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD5HJLRQ
8UEDQSRSXODWLRQRIWRWDOSRSXODWLRQ
$QQXDOJURZWK
3RSXODWLRQPLOOLRQV
• 7DEOH
'HPRJUDSK\DQGSRYHUW\
6HUYLFHV
,QGXVWU\
Q
DQ HUW\
ED
UE
Y
8U
X
O
3R
WD
V
D
&R
RIWRWDO
3RSXODWLRQ
$JULFXOWXUH
0HWKRGV
$VDILUVWVWHSLQWKHUHJLRQZLGHDSSURDFKDQDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHQDWXUHDQGOHYHORISROOXWLRQ
LQ WKH ODJRRQ DQG FRDVWDO ZDWHUV ZDV XQGHUWDNHQ $ VDPSOLQJ DQG DQDO\VLV SURJUDPPH ZDV
XQGHUWDNHQEDFNHGE\DQLQYHQWRU\DQGDQDO\VLVRIGDWDDOUHDG\DYDLODEOHLQWKHFRXQWULHV
7KH SROOXWLRQ OHYHO DVVHVVPHQW ZDV IROORZHG E\ DQ LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV
$FFRUGLQJ WR D ZRUOGZLGH VWXG\ E\ WKH 81 *URXS RI ([SHUWV RQ WKH 6FLHQWLILF $VSHFWV RI
0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ*(6$03LQWKHPDMRULW\RIPDULQHSROOXWLRQRULJLQDWHVIURPODQG
EDVHG DFWLYLWLHV $ TXDQWLWDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW RI VXFK VRXUFHV LQ WKH *2* FRDVWDO ]RQH ZDV
WKHUHIRUHXQGHUWDNHQDVDILUVWVWHSLQWKHSROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDVVHVVPHQW7KHDVVHVVPHQWEDVHG
RQ D PHWKRGRORJ\ GHYHORSHG E\ WKH :RUOG +HDOWK 2UJDQLVDWLRQ (FRQRPRSRXOXV FRQFHUQHG SULPDULO\ D TXDQWLILFDWLRQ RI HPLVVLRQV RI SRLQW VRXUFHV RI SROOXWLRQ RI LQGXVWULDO
DQG GRPHVWLF RULJLQ 7KH HIIHFWV RI LQFUHDVLQJ ODQG H[SORLWDWLRQ IRU DJULFXOWXUDO DQG RWKHU
VRFLRHFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVZRXOGEHGLIILFXOWWRTXDQWLI\EHFDXVHRIWKHLUGLIIXVHQDWXUH
$V D VHFRQG VWHS D PRUH GHWDLOHG VXUYH\ RQ LQGXVWULDO SROOXWLRQ ZKLFK FRPELQHG
TXHVWLRQQDLUHVDQGRQVLWHLQYHVWLJDWLRQVZDVDLPHGDWREWDLQLQJNQRZOHGJHRIPDQXIDFWXULQJ
SURFHVVHV W\SHV DQG TXDQWLWLHV RI ZDVWHV DQG ZDVWH WUHDWPHQW DQG GLVFKDUJH SUDFWLFHV
)XUWKHUPRUH DQ H[WHQVLYH UHYLHZ RI XUEDQ VDQLWDU\ V\VWHPV LQ WKH UHJLRQ LQFOXGLQJ WKHLU
SUREOHPVDQGFRQVWUDLQWVZDVXQGHUWDNHQ
)LQDOO\WKHSUREOHPRIVROLGZDVWHPDQDJHPHQWDQGPDULQHGHEULVZDVH[WHQVLYHO\VWXGLHGLQ
FROODERUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 2FHDQRJUDSKLF &RPPLVVLRQ ,2& RI 81(6&2 7KH
ODWWHU DFWLYLW\ LQYROYHG D \HDU PRQLWRULQJ FRXQWU\ZLVH SURJUDP RI PDULQH GHEULV RQ
UHIHUHQFHEHDFKHVRIWKUHHW\SHVDSRSXODWHGEHDFKDWRXULVWEHDFKDQGDUHIHUHQFHEHDFKRI
ORZDFWLYLW\
5HVXOWV
3ROOXWLRQLQFRDVWDODQGODJRRQZDWHUV
$OWKRXJK ZLWKRXW DQ LQGHSWK DQG ORQJWHUP DQDO\VLV LW LV GLIILFXOW WR GLIIHUHQWLDWH SROOXWLRQ
HIIHFWVIURPQDWXUDOYDULDWLRQVWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIVHYHUDOGHFDGHVRIVXEVWDQWLDODQG
FRQWLQXRXVLQSXWRIXQWUHDWHGGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOZDVWHVDUHFOHDUO\PDQLIHVWHGE\HOHYDWHG
OHYHOVRIFRQWDPLQDWLRQRIWKHFRDVWDOHFRV\VWHP6XFKHIIHFWVDUHPRVWHYLGHQWLQWKHVHQVLWLYH
FRDVWDOODJRRQV\VWHPVDURXQGWKHXUEDQFHQWUHV7DEOH7DEOHDQG7DEOHSURYLGH
DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKH OHYHOV RI SROOXWLRQ PHDVXUHG LQ WKH FRDVWDO DQG ODJRRQ ZDWHUV RI WKH FRXQWULHV
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH
7\SLFDOOHYHOVRIRUJDQLFSROOXWLRQLQVRPHRIWKHFRDVWDOODJRRQV\VWHPV
.RUOH/DJRRQ
&KHPX,,
/DJRV/DJRRQ (EULp/DJRRQ %DFNJURXQG
$FFUD
/DJRRQ7HPD
/DJRV
$ELGMDQ
'2>PJO@
QD
%2'>PJO@
QD
QD
323>PJO@
1+1>PJO@
121>PJO@
QD
QD
QD
QD
QD
7RWDOFROLIRUP1R
PO[
6RXUFHV%LQH\DQG$FTXDKD6RXUFHV$MDR.XVHPLMXHWDODQG2\HZR
6RXUFH$IILDQ9DOXHVPHDVXUHVIRUXQSROOXWHGODJRRQVLQ*KDQD/DORLDQG0RNZHODJRRQVDFFRUGLQJ
WR%LQH\QD1RUHOLDEOHGDWDDYDLODEOH
• 7DEOH
6DPSOH
&G
&U
7\SLFDOOHYHOVRIKHDY\PHWDOSROOXWLRQLQVRPHRIWKHFRDVWDOODJRRQV\VWHPV
&X
)H
+J
0Q
3E
=Q
5HIHUHQFH
6HGLPHQW>JJGU\ZW@
/DJRV/DJRRQ
/DJRV
(EULp/DJRRQ
$ELGMDQ
8QSROOXWHG
VHGLPHQWV
2NR\HHWDO
2\HZR
$UILHWDO
*(6$03
.RUOp/DJRRQ
$FFUDPHGLDQ
$FTXDKE
/DJRV/DJRRQ
/DJRVPHGLDQ
2NR\HD
1DWXUDOVHDZDWHU
OHYHOV
$FTXDKE
2NR\HE
:DWHU>PJO@
6KHOOILVK>JJIUHVKZW@
/DJRV/DJRRQ
/DJRVPHGLDQ
(EULp/DJRRQ
$ELGMDQ
:+2VWDQGDUG
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
0pWRQJR
.DEXOXHWDO
• 7DEOH
7\SLFDOOHYHOVRIRUJDQRFKORULQHSROOXWLRQLQFRDVWDOZDWHUVDQGFRDVWDOODJRRQ
V\VWHPV
6DPSOH
DOGULQ
GLHOGULQ
HQGULQ
KHSWD
FKORUH
OLQGDQH
''7
3&%
5HIHUHQFH
0pWRQJR
/DJRV/DJRRQ
1LJHULD
2NRQQD
/HNNL/DJRRQ
1LJHULD
QG
QG
QG
2MR
QG
QG
6HGLPHQW>SSE@
(EULpODJRRQ
,YRU\&RDVW
6KHOOILVK>SSE@
(EULp/DJRRQ
,YRU\&RDVW
2FHDQDW/LPEp QG
&DPHURRQ
+HDOWKVWDQGDUG
(WLHQ
QG (QRKHWDO
2UJDQLFSROOXWLRQKDVUHVXOWHGLQHXWURSKLFDWLRQDQGDVUHSRUWHGIRUWKH.RUOHDQG&KHPX,,
ODJRRQV LQ *KDQD DQG VHYHUDO RI WKH ED\V RI WKH (EULp ODJRRQ LQ ,YRU\ &RDVW LQ QHDU WRWDO
R[\JHQGHSOHWLRQ$FTXDKD$MDR$ZRVLNDDQG,EH%LQH\'XIRXU
HWDO*RUGRQ*XLUDO*XLUDOHWDO'HFUHDVHGILVKODQGLQJV
$MD\L $ZRVLND HW DO DQG RXWEUHDNV RI ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV $FTXDK D
$MDR DQG $QXULJZR 'RVVR HW DO 'XFKDVVLQ HW DO 'XIRXU HW DO .RXDVVLHWDO0pWRQJRHWDO3DJqV3DJqVDQG&LWHDXEHDUZLWQHVV
WRWKLVGHYHORSPHQW7KHHOHYDWHGOHYHOVRIKHDY\PHWDODQGRUJDQRFKORULQHFDQEHDWWULEXWHG
WR WKH GLVSRVDO RI XQWUHDWHG LQGXVWULDO DQG GRPHVWLF HIIOXHQWV DV ZHOO DV WR RLOV VSLOOV DQG
OHDNDJH 6WXGLHV RQ WKH OHYHOV RI KHDY\ PHWDOV DQG K\GURFDUERQV LQ ILVK DQG VKHOOILVK KDYH
VKRZQWKDWWKHOHYHOVIRXQGLQOLYLQJUHVRXUFHVH[SORLWHGIRUKXPDQFRQVXPSWLRQDOWKRXJKRQ
WKHULVHJHQHUDOO\VWLOOFRPSO\ZLWKLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\DFFHSWHGVWDQGDUGV
$VVHVVPHQWRI/DQGEDVHG6RXUFHVRI3ROOXWLRQ
6ROLGZDVWH0DULQHGHEULV7KHHQRUPRXVEXONRI
VROLG ZDVWH SURGXFHG GDLO\ E\ KRXVHKROGV DQG
LQGXVWULHVLQWKHFRDVWDO]RQHIRUPVDVHULRXVWKUHDWWR
WKHHQYLURQPHQW3RUWPDQQHWDO6ROLGZDVWH
JHQHUDWLRQ E\ WKH *2* FRDVWDO SRSXODWLRQ LV
HVWLPDWHG DW PLOOLRQ WRQQHV SHU \HDU RI PRVWO\
SXWUHVFLEOHRUQRQKD]DUGRXVZDVWH7KHGLVWULEXWLRQ
RIVROLGZDVWHJHQHUDWLRQSHUFRXQWU\LVGLVSOD\HGLQ
)LJXUH
&DPHURRQ
1LJHULD
&{WH
G
,YRLUH
%HQLQ
*KDQD
• )LJXUH (VWLPDWHGGRPHVWLFVROLGZDVWH
SURGXFWLRQSHUFRXQWU\ZHLJKW
&KDSWHU
$OWKRXJK GRPHVWLF VROLG ZDVWH SURGXFWLRQ FRQVWLWXWHV WKH ODUJHU EXON LQGXVWULHV SURGXFH
FRQVLGHUDEOH DPRXQWV RI VRPHWLPHV KD]DUGRXV RU LQIHFWLRXV ZDVWH 7KH \HDUO\ VROLG ZDVWH
SURGXFWLRQE\LQGXVWULHVLVHVWLPDWHGDWWRQQHVWKHEXONRIZKLFKLVRIDSXWUHVFLEOHRU
ORZKD]DUGQDWXUH)LJXUHDQG)LJXUH0DMRUFRQWULEXWRUVDUHWKHIRRGPDQXIDFWXULQJ
LQGXVWU\DQGWKHDOXPLQLXPDQGVWHHOLQGXVWU\PDLQO\&DPHURRQDQG1LJHULD7KHSHWUROHXP
LQGXVWU\LVWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWSURGXFHURIKD]DUGRXVZDVWHRLO\DQGWR[LFVOXGJH
3XWUHVFLEOH
+D]DUGRXV
:DVWHORDG>W\U@
&D
P
*
KD
QD
)R
RG
SU
RF
HV
V
%H LQJ
YH
UD
JH
7H
3 H [ W LO
WUR H
OH
&K
XP
HP
0
LF
HW
DO
S
DO
UR
GX
FW
2 V
WK
HU
V
HU
RR
Q
%H
QL
Q
1L
JH
ULD
:DVWHORDG>W\U@
/RZKD]DUG
• )LJXUH 7\SHVRIVROLGZDVWHLQWKHFRDVWDO]RQH
• )LJXUH /RDGVDQGW\SHVRIZDVWHLQWKH
SHULQGXVWULDOVHFWRU
FRDVWDO]RQHSHUFRXQWU\
7KHDYHUDJHGLVWULEXWLRQRIYDULRXVGHEULVLWHPVFROOHFWHGSHUPRQWKHUHIHUHQFHEHDFKHV
PRQLWRUHGDVSDUWRIWKHEHDFKGHEULVPRQLWRULQJSURJUDPLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH'RPLQDQW
LWHPV DUH SODVWLFV FRQVWLWXWLQJ RQ DYHUDJH RI ZDVWH PDLQO\ UHODWHG WR ILVKLQJ DFWLYLWLHV
DQGWKHXVHRISODVWLFVDVFDUULHUEDJVDQGSDFNDJLQJPDWHULDOV
&ORWK
:RRG 3DSHU
0HWDO
5XEEHU
*ODVV
)RDPHG
SODVWLF
7DUEDOOV
7DUEDOOV
2WKHUV
:RRG
3ODVWLF
$
2WKHUV
&ORWK
3DSHU
0HWDO 5XEEHU
*ODVV
)RDPHG
SODVWLF
&ORWK
3ODVWLF
%
7DUEDOOV 2WKHUV
:RRG
3DSHU
0HWDO 5XEEHU
*ODVV
)RDPHG SODVWLF
3ODVWLF
&
• )LJXUH $YHUDJHGPDULQHGHEULVGLVWULEXWLRQSDWWHUQIRU$SRSXODWHG%UHFUHDWLRQDODQG&
UHIHUHQFHEHDFKHVLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDUHJLRQ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
7KHDYHUDJHQXPEHURIGHEULVLWHPVIRXQGZDVSHUP3HDNVREVHUYHGYDULHGDFFRUGLQJWR
WKHW\SHRIEHDFK)LJXUHH[FHSWIRUWKHPRQWKRI1RYHPEHUZKLFKSHDNLVQRWLFHGDWDOO
WKH WKUHH W\SHV RI EHDFK $W WKH SRSXODWHG EHDFKHV SHDNV ZHUH REVHUYHG LQ 1RYHPEHU
'HFHPEHUDQG0DUFKFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRSHULRGVRILQFUHDVHGWRXULVPDFWLYLWLHV
6H
S
-X
O
D\
0
DU
1R
Y
0
0
0
0
6H
S
-X
O
D\
DU
-D
Q
1R
Y
6H
S
-X
O
D\
DU
-D
Q
&
0
%
-D
Q
$
1R
Y
1RRILWHPVFROOHFWHG
• )LJXUH 6HDVRQDOYDULDWLRQRIPDULQHGHEULVRQ$SRSXODWHG%UHFUHDWLRQDODQG&
UHIHUHQFHEHDFKHVLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDUHJLRQ
/LTXLG ZDVWH 'DLO\ ODUJH TXDQWLWLHV RI LQGXVWULDO DQG GRPHVWLF HIIOXHQWV DUH GLVFKDUJHG
YLUWXDOO\XQWUHDWHGLQWRWKHFRDVWDODQGODJRRQZDWHUV$QHVWLPDWHGRILQGXVWULDOHIIOXHQWV
IORZ GLUHFWO\ LQWR WKH VHQVLWLYH ODJRRQ V\VWHPV WKURXJK GLWFKHV VKDOORZ SLWV JXWWHUV DQG
WUHQFKHV$MDR$MDRDQG$QXULJZR)0:+,EH$OWKRXJKLQWKH
ODUJHVW FRDVWDO XUEDQ FHQWUHV VHZDJH V\VWHPV KDYH EHHQ LQVWDOOHG RQO\ D VPDOO SDUW RI WKH
SRSXODWLRQLVEUDQFKHGWRWKHQHWZRUNVUDQJLQJIURPLQ$ELGMDQWROHVVWKDQLQWKH
RWKHU PDMRU FLWLHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH PLOOLRQ SRSXODWLRQ RI /DJRV :KHUH WKH\ H[LVW FHQWUDO
VHZDJH WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV DUH HLWKHU RXW RI RUGHU RU RSHUDWLQJ EDGO\ 6HSWLF WDQNV DQG SLW
ODWULQHV DUH FRPPRQ VDQLWDU\ IDFLOLWLHV EXW RIWHQ VWRUPZDWHU GUDLQDJH V\VWHPV DFW DV RSHQ
VHZHUVFDXVLQJSUREOHPVRIK\JLHQHDQGUXQRIIVLQWRFRDVWDODQGODJRRQZDWHUVSDUWLFXODUO\
GXULQJWKHUDLQ\VHDVRQ
)LJXUH GLVSOD\V WKH HVWLPDWHG GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO SROOXWLRQ ORDGV WKH ODWWHU EHLQJ
VOLJKWO\ LQ H[FHVV DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKH KLJK OHYHO RI LQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ $V IROORZV IURP
)LJXUH1LJHULDZLWK/DJRVDVWKHFHQWUHRILQGXVWULDODFWLYLW\LQWKHUHJLRQLVE\IDUWKH
ODUJHVWFRQWULEXWRU
&KDSWHU
/RDG>W\@
&DPHURRQ
1LJHULD
%HQLQ
*KDQD
%2'
'RPHVWLF
66
/RDG>W\@
• )LJXUH ,QGXVWULDO:DVWHORDGVLQWKH*XOIRI
6XVSHQGHG6ROLGV/RDGVLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
FRDVWDO]RQHUHJLRQ
7KH SULQFLSDO LQGXVWULDO FRQWULEXWRU WR %2'
ORDGLQJ LV WKH IRRGPDQXIDFWXULQJ VHFWRU DV
IROORZV IURP )LJXUH 3ROOXWLRQ IURP RLO
H[SORUDWLRQH[SORLWDWLRQ DQG SURFHVVLQJ LQ
1LJHULD LV D FDVH E\ LWVHOI 2LO SURGXFLQJ
FRPSDQLHVGLVFKDUJHDQHVWLPDWHGWRQVRIRLO
\HDUO\ PRVWO\ DV SDUW RI ZDVWHZDWHU IURP WKH
RLOZDWHUVHSDUDWLRQSURFHVVDQGSURGXFWLRQZDWHU
IURP H[SORUDWLRQH[SORLWDWLRQ SURFHVV 7KH
YROXPHRULJLQDWLQJIURPRLOVSLOOVLVURXJKO\HYHQ
WKUHH WLPHV KLJKHU ,Q WKH DEVHQFH RI WUHDWPHQW
LQGXVWULHV H[FHHG HIIOXHQW VWDQGDUGV LQ PRVW
FDVHV 2QO\ YHU\ IHZ ZRXOG SDVV WKH WHVW LI D
SURSHU FRPSOLDQFH PRQLWRULQJ V\VWHP ZHUH LQ
SODFHDVPD\EHFRQFOXGHGIURP7DEOH
,QGXVWULDO
• )LJXUH 'RPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDO%2'DQG
66
&{WHG
,YRLUH
%2'
*XLQHD&RDVWDO=RQH5HJLRQ,QGXVWULDO:DVWH
ORDGVLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD&RDVWDO=RQH5HJLRQ
)RRG
PDQXIDFWXULQJ
7H[WLOH
2WKHUV
%HYHUDJH
2LOUHILQLQJ
0HWDO
SURGXFWV
• )LJXUH,QGXVWULDO%2'ORDGVSHUFDWHJRU\RI
LQGXVWULDOSURGXFWLRQSURFHVVLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
&RDVWDO=RQH
• 7DEOH
7\SLFDOSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRILQGXVWULDOHIIOXHQWGLVFKDUJHVDV
PHDVXUHGLQWKHUHJLRQ
S+
%2'>PJO@
&2'>PJO@
*KDQD
1LJHULD
*KDQD
1LJHULD
*KDQD
1LJHULD
&KHPLFDOVSKDUPDFHXWLFDOV
)RRGPDQXIDFWXULQJEHYHUDJH
7H[WLOHPDQXIDFWXULQJ
0HWDOSURFHVVLQJ
!
:RUOG%DQN*XLGHOLQHV
*KDQDLDQVWDQGDUGV
1LJHULDQVWDQGDUGV
6RXUFHV1LJHULD-XQDLG*KDQD$FTXDKE
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
$LUSROOXWLRQ7KHPDLQVRXUFHVRIDLUSROOXWLRQLQWKHUHJLRQDUHWUDIILFYHKLFOHVDHURSODQHV
VKLSV SRZHUVWDWLRQVLQGXVWULDOXQLWVDQGKRXVHKROGVXVLQJFKDUFRDODQGZRRGIRUFRRNLQJ
DQGNHURVHQHIRUOLJKWLQJ7KHGLVWULEXWLRQRIDLUSROOXWLRQORDGVSHUVRXUFHLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH
7KHGLVWULEXWLRQH[FOXGHVWKHFDVHRI1LJHULDZKHUHODUJHVFDOHIODULQJRIQDWXUDOJDVD
E\SURGXFW IURP WKH RLO H[SORLWDWLRQ LQGXVWU\ LV LPSRUWDQW RI JDV SURGXFWLRQ RU
DSSUR[LPDWHO\ELOOLRQPLVIODUHGDQQXDOO\&%1PDNLQJ1LJHULDWKHODUJHVWJDV
IODULQJFRXQWU\LQWKHZRUOG$QQXDOHPLVVLRQVRI&2QLWURJHQR[LGHVDQG62DUHHVWLPDWHG
DWW\W\DQGW\UHVSHFWLYHO\$MDRDQG$QXULJZR
&2
+&
7UDIILF
3RZHUSODQWV
,QGXVWULDO
12
62
'RPHVWLF
3DUW
• )LJXUH 7\SLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIDLUSROOXWLRQORDGVSHUVRXUFHIRUWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD5HJLRQ
,QJHQHUDOKRZHYHUWUDIILFDFFRXQWVIRUPRVW&2[62DQG12[HPLVVLRQV'RPHVWLFELRPDVV
EXUQLQJLVDQLPSRUWDQWFRQWULEXWRUWRSDUWLFXODWHPDWHULDO12[DQGWRVRPHH[WHQW62DQG
+& HPLVVLRQV ,QGXVWULDO HPLVVLRQV DUH LPSRUWDQW LQ WHUPV RI SDUWLFXODWH PDWHULDO DQG 62
$OWKRXJK LW PD\ EH H[SHFWHG WKDW SROOXWLRQ YLD WKH DWPRVSKHULF SDWKZD\ KDV FRQVLGHUDEOH
LQIOXHQFHRQWKHPDULQHHQYLURQPHQW/HPDVVRQDQG3DJHV5HLPROGDQG'DLEHU
LWVHIIHFWVDUHGLIILFXOWWRTXDQWLI\
&RQFOXVLRQ
3ROOXWLRQKDVFOHDUO\OHIWLWVPDUNVRQWKHQDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDFRDVWDO
]RQH,WVLPSDFWVDUHFRQFHQWUDWHGDURXQGWKHFRDVWDOXUEDQFHQWUHVZKLFKKDYHEHHQVXEMHFWWR
DQXQEULGOHGJURZWKRISRSXODWLRQDQGLQGXVWULDOGHYHORSPHQWLQWKHSDVWKDOIFHQWXU\2UJDQLF
SROOXWLRQ RI FRDVWDO ODJRRQ ZDWHUV FULWLFDO KDELWDWV IRU WKH FRDVWDO HFRV\VWHP KDV FDXVHG
DGYDQFHGOHYHOVRIHXWURSKLFDWLRQR[\JHQGHSOHWLRQDQGFRQVHTXHQWGHFUHDVHLQILVKOHYHOVDQG
RXWEUHDNV RI ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV 2UJDQRFKORULQH DQG KHDY\ PHWDO SROOXWLRQ DUH VWLOO
UHVWULFWHGEXWRQWKHULVH
&KDSWHU
$QDVVHVVPHQWRISROOXWLRQVRXUFHVUHYHDOHGWKDWGRPHVWLFVRXUFHVDUHWKHPDMRUJHQHUDWRUVRI
VROLG ZDVWH ZKLOH LQGXVWULHV LQ SDUWLFXODU SHWUROHXP H[SORLWDWLRQ DQG UHILQHULHV LQ 1LJHULD
GLVFKDUJHVXEVWDQWLDODPRXQWVRIKD]DUGRXVZDVWH3ODVWLFIRUPVWKHGRPLQDQWFRPSRQHQWRI
PDULQHGHEULVRQEHDFKHVZLWKWRXULVPOHDYLQJDFOHDUPDUNLQSHULRGVRILQFUHDVHGWRXULVP
DFWLYLWLHV
,QGXVWU\LQWKHKLJKO\LQGXVWULDOLVHGFRDVWDO]RQHLVDVOLJKWO\ODUJHUVRXUFHRI%2'SURYRNLQJ
ZDVWH WKDQ GRPHVWLF KRXVHKROGV (IIOXHQWV IORZ ODUJHO\ XQWUHDWHG LQWR FRDVWDO ZDWHUV DQG
ODJRRQ V\VWHPV ZLWK WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV HLWKHU DEVHQW RU LQDGHTXDWH 3HWUROHXP FRPSDQLHV
PDLQO\LQ1LJHULDIRUPDVSHFLDOFDWHJRU\LQWHUPVRIWKHLUVXEVWDQWLDOGLVFKDUJHDQGVSLOOVRI
RLOWRWKHHQYLURQPHQW
$LU SROOXWLRQ LQ WHUPV RI &2[ +& 12[ DQG 62 HPLVVLRQV LV GRPLQDWHG E\ URDG WUDIILF
3DUWLFXODWHHPLVVLRQVRULJLQDWHPDLQO\IURPLQGXVWULHVDQGGRPHVWLFELRPDVVEXUQLQJ/DUJH
VFDOHJDVIODULQJWDNHVSODFHLQ1LJHULDFRQWULEXWLQJVXEVWDQWLDODPRXQWVRI&212[DQG62
7KHMRLQWDVVHVVPHQWRIPDULQHSROOXWLRQE\WKHVL[FRXQWULHVKDVEHHQDQLPSRUWDQWVWHSLQWKH
EDWWOH DJDLQVW HQYLURQPHQWDO GHJUDGDWLRQ VKHGGLQJ D KROLVWLF OLJKW RQ WKH SUREOHP DQG
SURYLGLQJ WKH RSWLRQ IRU MRLQW GHILQLWLRQ RI UHPHGLHV DJDLQVW LW 0XFK RI WKH QHJDWLYH
GHYHORSPHQWVLQWKHUHJLRQFDQEHUHODWHGWRSROLF\GHILFLWVDQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOFRQVWUDLQWVZLWK
UHJDUG WR HQYLURQPHQWDO PDQDJHPHQW LQ WKH UHJLRQ 7KHVH KDYH WR EH YLHZHG DJDLQVW WKH
EDFNJURXQGRIWKHVWLOOSKHQRPHQDOSRSXODWLRQJURZWKDQGZHDNHFRQRPLFVLWXDWLRQERWKRI
ZKLFK KDYH LQGXFHG QRW RQO\ XQVXVWDLQDEOH H[SORLWDWLRQ RI QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV EXW DOVR D
QHJOLJHQFHRIHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH(EULp/DJRRQ,YRU\&RDVW
:HVW$IULFD
3$6FKHUHQ&.URH]H)--DQVVHQ/+RUGLMN.-3WDVLQVNLVXEPLWWHGWR-RXUQDO
RI0DULQH6\VWHPV
$EVWUDFW
$QHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQDVVHVVPHQWRIWKH(EULpODJRRQWKHODUJHVWFRDVWDOHFRV\VWHPLQ
:HVWHUQ $IULFD ZDV H[HFXWHG DSSO\LQJ WKH 'ULYLQJ IRUFH3UHVVXUH6WDWH,PSDFWV5HVSRQVH
'36,5 IUDPHZRUN 7KH GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO DFWLYLWLHV LQ $ELGMDQ DQG DJULFXOWXUDO
DFWLYLWLHVLQWKHZLGHUFDWFKPHQWDUHDZKHUHLGHQWLILHGDVWKHPDLQGULYLQJIRUFHV7ZRWKLUGV
RI%LRORJLFDO2[\JHQ'HPDQG%2'ORDGVDQGRIWRWDOQLWURJHQ1DQGSKRVSKRURXV
3ORDGVRI$ELGMDQDUHIURPGRPHVWLFHIIOXHQWVZLWKLQGXVWU\PDNLQJXSWKHUHVW2XWVLGHRI
WKH GLUHFW LQIOXHQFH RI $ELGMDQ QXWULHQW OHYHOV LQ WKH ODJRRQ DUH JRYHUQHG E\ WKH LQIOX[ RI
QXWULHQWVIURPWKHULYHUV&RPRp0pDQG$JQpE\ZLWKQXWULHQWODQGUXQRIIDVWKHNH\IDFWRUV
7RWDODQQXDO1ORDGVWRWKHODJRRQIRUDUHHVWLPDWHGDWNWRIZKLFKIURPXUEDQ
VRXUFHVIURPODQGUXQRIIDQGIURPDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ(VWLPDWHVIRU3DUH
NWDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\
6FHQDULRDQDO\VLVKDVVKRZQWKDWDXWRQRPRXVJURZWKZLWKRXWSROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQPHDVXUHV
FRXOG UHVXOW LQ D IROG LQFUHDVH LQ QXWULHQW LQSXWV WR WKH ODJRRQ RYHU WKH SHULRG 1XWULHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH ODJRRQ FRXOG FRQVHTXHQWO\ LQFUHDVH E\ D IDFWRU RI ò ZKLFK
FRXOGHVFDODWHWRDGUDPDWLFOHYHORIHXWURSKLFDWLRQIRUWKHFRPSOHWHV\VWHP5HVXOWVLQGLFDWH
WKDW SROOXWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ SROLFLHV DLPHG DW QRQSRLQW VRXUFHV ZRXOG EH PRVW HIIHFWLYH LQ
UHGXFLQJ QXWULHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV 3RLQWVRXUFH SROOXWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ ZRXOG LPSURYH FRQGLWLRQV
DURXQG$ELGMDQEXWQRWVXEVWDQWLDOO\LQWKHRWKHUVHFWLRQVRIWKHODJRRQ
7KH DSSURDFK WDNHQ LQ WKLV VWXG\ KDV SURYHQ HIILFLHQW XQGHU FRQGLWLRQV RI UHODWLYH GDWD
VFDUFHQHVVDQGVXIILFLHQWO\UHOLDEOHWRDOORZIRUSROLF\OHYHOFRQFOXVLRQVWREHGUDZQ
,QWURGXFWLRQ
:LWKDWRWDOOHQJWKRINPDQGDZLGWKYDU\LQJEHWZHHQDQGNPWKH(EULpODJRRQIRUPV
DORQJVWUHWFKHGZDWHUEDVLQLQWKHFRDVWDO]RQHRI,YRU\&RDVWZLWKLWVNPFRQVWLWXWLQJ
WKHPDMRUFRDVWDOHFRV\VWHPLQ:HVW$IULFD3ULPDU\LQOHWVRIIUHVKZDWHUDUHWKH&RPRpWKH
$JQpE\DQG0pULYHUVUHIUHVKLQJWKHODJRRQ¶VZDWHUVDWDQDYHUDJHUDWHRIWLPHVSHU\HDU
&KDQWUDLQHHWDO2ULJLQDOO\RQO\FRQQHFWHGWRWKH$WODQWLF2FHDQWKURXJKWKH%DVVDP
LQOHWLQWKHIDU(DVWRIWKH/DJRRQDFORVHURFHDQRSHQLQJWRWKHHPHUJLQJFLW\RI$ELGMDQZDV
HVWDEOLVKHGLQWKURXJKWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKH9ULGLFDQDO)LJXUHSUHVHQWVWKH(EULp
/DJRRQ ZDWHU V\VWHP GLYLGHG LQWR VHJPHQWV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW SK\VLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 'XUDQG
DQG*XLUDO
x ,3RWRXDQG$JKLHQODJRRQ,QIOXHQFHGVWURQJO\E\IUHVKZDWHULQSXWVIURPWKH0p
DQG &RPRp ULYHUV 5DSLG FLUFXODWLRQ KDV SUHYHQWHG HXWURSKLFDWLRQ LQ WKLV SDUW RI WKH
ODJRRQ
&KDSWHU
x ,,, $UHD FORVH WR 9ULGL &DQDO 7KLV HQWLW\ KDV DOO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI DQ HVWXDULQH
V\VWHP,WLVVWURQJO\LQIOXHQFHGE\VHDZDWHUSDUWLFXODUO\GXULQJWKHORZZDWHUSHULRG
RIWKH&RPRpULYHUWKHPDLQWULEXWDU\WRWKHODJRRQ
x ,, ,9 6XUURXQGLQJ WKH DUHD FORVH WR 9ULGL &DQDO $ VRFDOOHG SDUDHVWXDULQH
V\VWHPDPL[WXUHRIIUHVKDQGVDOWZDWHUEXWQRWGLUHFWO\LQIOXHQFHGE\WKHVHD
x 99,:HVWHUQ]RQH6WUHWFKLQJIURPWKH-DFTXHYLOOHG\NHWRWKHZHVWHUQHQGRIWKH
ODJRRQ DQG IHG E\ IUHVK ZDWHU IURP UDLQ DQG ORFDO VWUHDPV ,W LV FKHPLFDOO\ DQG
LVRWRSLFDOO\PRUHFRQFHQWUDWHGWKDQVWUHDPZDWHUEHFDXVHRIHYDSRUDWLRQDQGUHODWLYH
VWDJQDWLRQ7KLVKDVUHVXOWHGLQLQWHQVHHXWURSKLFDWLRQ
0p
$7/$17,&2&($1
• )LJXUH 7KH(EULp/DJRRQZDWHUVKHGGLYLGHGLQWRVHJPHQWVDIWHU'XUDQGDQG*XLUDO
7KHKDWFKHGDUHDUHSUHVHQWVWKHKHDUWRILWVHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\
7DEOHSUHVHQWVWKHPDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHGLIIHUHQWVHJPHQWVRIWKHODJRRQ
• 7DEOH
6HJPHQW
7KHVL[VHJPHQWVDQGWKHLUFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDIWHU'XUDQGDQG*XLUDO
6XUIDFH
NP
9ROXPH
NP
'HSWKP
&DWFKPHQW
DUHDNP
5HQHZDO
UDWH\
,D$JKLHQODJRRQ
,E3RWRXODJRRQ
,,
j
,,,
,9
9
j
9,
j
7RWDO
7DNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWULYHUDQGVHDLQIORZSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGWKURXJKIOX[SHUVHJPHQW
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
7KH(EULpODJRRQLVLPSRUWDQWWRWKHVRFLRHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWRI,YRU\&RDVW7UDGLWLRQDO
ILVKLQJSUDFWLFHVKDYHHYROYHGWRQRZHQFRPSDVVWKUHHWRIRXUWKRXVDQGILVKHUPHQZKLOHIRUW\
WKRXVDQGSHRSOHJHWWKHLULQFRPHIURPUHODWHGDFWLYLWLHVVXFKDVVKLSEXLOGLQJPDQXIDFWXULQJ
RI ILVK JHDU ILVKSDFNDJLQJWUDQVSRUWDQGPDUNHWLQJ2WKHUXVHVRIWKHODJRRQLQFOXGHVDQG
H[WUDFWLRQDTXDFXOWXUHUHFUHDWLRQDQGWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ'XIRXUHWDO
:LWK WKH UDSLG JURZWK RI WKH FLW\ RI $ELGMDQ WKH RSHQLQJ RI WKH 9ULGL FDQDO DQG WKH
HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI D PDMRU SRUW WKH FLW\ KDV EHFRPH WKH KHDUW RI HFRQRPLF DFWLYLW\ RI ,YRU\
&RDVW$ELGMDQZLWKDQHVWLPDWHGSRSXODWLRQRIRYHUPLOOLRQLVDQH[DPSOHRIWKHPDQ\
GHYHORSLQJZRUOGFLWLHVZKHUHXQSODQQHGGHYHORSPHQWKDVUHVXOWHGLQUDSLGXUEDQLVDWLRQDQG
ODUJHVFDOH LQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ ZLWKRXW FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQFHUQV &KDQWUDLQH HW
DO0DUFKDQGDQG0DUWLQ'HVSLWHUHFHQWDWWHPSWVWRFRQWUROSROOXWLRQWKURXJK
WKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIXUEDQVHZDJHV\VWHPVDQGWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHV$GLQJUDDQG$UIL
UHMHFWV RI GRPHVWLF ZDVWH DQG HIIOXHQWV IURP LQGXVWULHV SROOXWH WKH ODJRRQ ZDWHUV LQ ODUJH
TXDQWLWLHV
7KH VWURQJ SDFH RI DJULFXOWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW LQ ,YRU\ &RDVW KDV EHHQ WKH EDVLV RI HFRQRPLF
GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH FRXQWU\ +RZHYHU WKLV KDV EHHQ DFFRPSDQLHG E\ DQ LQFUHDVHG ORDG RI
IHUWLOL]HUV DQG DJURFKHPLFDOV LQWR WKH ZDWHUV RI WKH ODJRRQ ZDWHUVKHG $OO WRJHWKHU WKH
LQFUHDVHGZDVWHORDGVLQWRWKHODJRRQKDYHVHULRXVO\GHWHULRUDWHGLWVZDWHUTXDOLW\,QWKHDUHD
DURXQG $ELGMDQ HVSHFLDOO\ LQ LWV PRVW SROOXWHG ED\V ZDWHUV DUH VWURQJO\ HXWURSKLF DOO \HDU
DURXQGR[\JHQOHYHOVIUHTXHQWO\GURSSLQJWRGUDPDWLFOHYHOVZLWKPDVVILVKPRUWDOLW\$OEDUHW
DQG &KDUOHV 'RPLQLTXH IORDWLQJ GHEULV DQG UHSHOOLQJ VXOSKXULF VPHOOV DV D
FRQVHTXHQFH:LWKWKLVGHYHORSPHQW$EGMDQRQFHFDOOHGµWKH3HDUORIWKH/DJRRQ¶KDVORVW
PXFKRILWVFKDUP+LJKWHPSHUDWXUHVDQGHXWURSKLFDWLRQOHYHOVKDYHIXUWKHUPRUHFDXVHGWKH
(EULpODJRRQZDWHUVWREHFRPHDUHVHUYRLURISDWKRJHQLFPLFURRUJDQLVPVUHVXOWLQJLQZDWHU
ERUQHGLVHDVHVDQGRXWEUHDNVRIHSLGHPLFVRI7\SKRLG6DOPRQHOODDQG&KROHUDHJ$GLQJUD
DQG$UIL'RVVRHWDO'XFKDVVLQHWDO,ZXML.RXDPpHWDO
.RXDVVLHWDO
'LIIHUHQWVWXGLHVLQWKHSDVWKDYHUHYLHZHGWKHGUDPDWLFDOO\GHWHULRUDWLQJTXDOLW\RIWKH(EULp
ODJRRQZDWHUVLQWHUPVRIWKHVRXUFHVRISROOXWLRQHJ$GLQJUDDQG$UIL%URFKHDQG
3HVFKHW .RXDVVL HW DO 1('(&2 0HWRQJR HW DO 2WKHUV KDYH
VWXGLHG WKH HIIHFWV LQ WHUPV RI VHGLPHQW FRQWDPLQDWLRQ HJ .RXDGLR DQG 7UHIU\ 0DUFKDQG DQG 0DUWLQ HIIHFWV RQ PDULQH OLIH HJ $OEDUHW DQG &KDUOHV 'RPLQLTXH
0pWRQJR 0pWRQJR DQG .RXDPHQDQ 0pWRQJR DQG 6DQNDUp DQG
SDWKRJHQLFPLFURRUJDQLVPVHJ'RVVRHWDO.RXDVVLHWDO/DQXVVHDQG*XLUDO
7KHVHVWXGLHVKDYHUHVXOWHGLQDQXPEHURIFRQFOXVLRQVLQFOXGLQJWKHIDFWWKDWFKHPLFDO
SROOXWLRQUHODWHGWRK\GURFDUERQVRUJDQRFKORULQHVDQGKHDY\PHWDOVLVVWLOOOLPLWHG7KHPDLQ
SUREOHP LV FOHDUO\ HXWURSKLFDWLRQ DV D UHVXOW RI KLJK QXWULHQW ORDGV DQG WKH VKHDU ORDG RI
RUJDQLFPDWHULDOWRWKHED\VRI$ELGMDQ
&KDSWHU
1RQHRIWKHVWXGLHVKDVKRZHYHUDSSOLHGDQLQWHJUDWHGDSSURDFKUHODWLQJGULYLQJIRUFHVDQG
LPSDFWV RI SROOXWLRQ LQ VXFK D ZD\ WKDW LW SURYLGHV WKH µKDQGOHV¶ IRU SROLF\ PDNHUV DQG
HQJLQHHUV WR GHWHUPLQH DSSURSULDWH UHPHGLHV 7KHUHIRUH WKLV VWXG\ WKURXJK DVVHVVLQJ DQG
PRGHOOLQJWKHSROOXWLRQRIWKHODJRRQV\VWHPLQDQLQWHJUDWHGZD\DWWHPSWVWRSURYLGHWKHVH
KDQGOHV7KHIRFXVLVRQWKHPDLQFDXVHRIWKHHXWURSKLFDWLRQSUREOHPWKHQXWULHQWVQLWURJHQ
1DQGSKRVSKRURXV3GD\%LRORJLFDO2[\JHQ'HPDQG%2'ORDGLQJVZLOOPRUHRYHU
EHXVHGDVDQLQGLFDWRUIRURUJDQLFSROOXWLRQORDGVIURPGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOVRXUFHVLQDQG
DURXQGWKHFLW\RI$ELGMDQ
0HWKRGRORJ\
7KHDSSURDFKDVXVHGIRUWKHSROOXWLRQDVVHVVPHQWVFKHPDWLFDOO\SUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUHLV
RIWHQ UHIHUUHG WR DV WKH '36,5 'ULYLQJ IRUFHV ± 3UHVVXUHV ± 6WDWH ,PSDFW 5HVSRQVHV
DSSURDFK 7KH GULYLQJ IRUFHV UHSUHVHQW WKH DQWKURSRJHQLF DFWLYLWLHV HJ GRPHVWLF DFWLYLWLHV
SURGXFWLRQRIJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVDQGQDWXUDOIDFWRUVHJODQGUXQRIIDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
WKDWFDXVHSUHVVXUHRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWLQWHUPVRISROOXWLRQORDGVHJGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDO
HIIOXHQWV QXWULHQW UXQRII DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ LQIOXHQFLQJ LQ WXUQ WKH VWDWH RI WKH
HQYLURQPHQWZDWHUTXDOLW\HXWURSKLFDWLRQZKLFKVKRZVDGYHUVHLPSDFWVDVGHVFULEHGLQWKH
LQWURGXFWRU\ VHFWLRQ RI WKLV SDSHU HJ ZDWHUERUQH GLVHDVHV ILVK PRUWDOLW\ QXLVDQFH
GHFUHDVHGHFRORJLFDODQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFYDOXHV
'ULYLQJ)RUFHV
,
(QYLURQPHQWDO
SUHVVXUH
,,,
,,,
,,
6WDWHRIWKH
HQYLURQPHQW
,PSDFW
,,,
5HVSRQVHDFWLRQV
• )LJXUH 6FKHPDWLFSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHDSSOLHGUHVHDUFKDSSURDFK
7KH DGYHUVH LPSDFWV PD\ EH PLWLJDWHG E\ UHVSRQVHV RU DFWLRQV ,Q WKH GULYLQJ IRUFHV
FRPSRQHQW WKLV FRXOG EH WKURXJK PRYLQJ RU EDQQLQJ FHUWDLQ SROOXWLQJ LQGXVWULHV IURP WKH
FDWFKPHQW DUHD ,Q WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO SUHVVXUH FRPSRQHQW WKLV FRXOG FRQFHUQ SROOXWLRQ
UHGXFWLRQ PHDVXUHV VXFK DV ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW FOHDQHU SURGXFWLRQ WHFKQRORJLHV RU
LPSURYHPHQW RI ODQG XVH DQG UHGXFWLRQ RI IHUWLOLVHU XVH LQ DJULFXOWXUH ,Q WKH VWDWH RI WKH
HQYLURQPHQWFRPSRQHQWSRVVLEOHDFWLRQVFRXOGDLPDWLQIOXHQFLQJWKHK\GURORJ\RIWKHV\VWHP
E\FUHDWLQJDGGLWLRQDORSHQLQJVWRVHDWRLQFUHDVHZDWHUIOXVKLQJOHYHOV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
7KLVVWXG\DLPVWRGHYHORSDTXDQWLWDWLYHPRGHOIRUWKHER[HGDUHDRI)LJXUH7KHDFWXDO
LPSDFWVDUHQRWTXDQWLILHGEXWKDYHEHHQGHVFULEHGTXDOLWDWLYHO\LQWKHLQWURGXFWRU\VHFWLRQRI
WKLVSDSHU7KHPDLQVWHSVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWDVLQGLFDWHGLQ)LJXUHDUHGHVFULEHGEHORZ
, $SROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDVVHVVPHQWEDVHGRQDQDVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\RIWHQUHIHUUHGWR
DVµ5DSLG$VVHVVPHQW¶PHWKRG(FRQRPRSRXORV6FKHUHQHWDO
DZKLFKUHODWHVGULYLQJIRUFHVWRWKHLUSUHVVXUHRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW
,, $QXWULHQWEDODQFHDVVHVVPHQWE\PHDQVRIDPXOWLVHJPHQWLQSXWRXWSXWPRGHORIWKH
ODJRRQV\VWHPWRGHWHUPLQHWKHUHODWLRQEHWZHHQSUHVVXUHDQGVWDWHRIWKHHQYLURQPHQW
,,, $ VFHQDULR DQDO\VLV DSSO\LQJ WKH FDOLEUDWHG PRGHO WR DVVHVV WKH LPSDFWV RI DOWHUQDWLYH
SROLF\DQGGHYHORSPHQWVFHQDULRV
'DWDRQWKH(EULp/DJRRQFDVHLVVFDUFHDQGZKHUHDYDLODEOHRIWHQLQFRPSOHWHDQGLQDFFXUDWH
7KHFKRLFHRIDVVHVVPHQWWHFKQLTXHVDSSOLHGLQWKLVVWXG\LVWKHUHIRUHDGDSWHGWRWKLVVLWXDWLRQ
RIGDWDVFDUFHQHVV
7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWPD\VHUYHDVWKHEDVLVIRUGLVFXVVLRQVZLWKYDULRXVVWDNHKROGHUV
LQFOXGLQJ JRYHUQPHQW UHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWHV DQG QRQJRYHUQPHQWDO RUJDQLVDWLRQV RQ WKH
PDQDJHPHQW RI WKHODJRRQV\VWHP7KLVVWDNHKROGHUHQJDJHPHQWZLOOEHH[HFXWHGXQGHUWKH
*()81,'2*XLQHD&XUUHQW/DUJH0DULQH(FRV\VWHP3URMHFW7KHODWWHUSURMHFWLQLWLDWHGLQ
DQG QRZ LQFRUSRUDWLQJ FRXQWULHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ DLPV DW IDFLOLWDWLQJ DQ LQWHJUDWHG
PDQDJHPHQW RI WKH FRDVWDO ]RQH RI WKH *XLQHD &XUUHQW $Q HDUOLHU VWHS LQ WKLV ,QWHJUDWHG
6\VWHPV$QDO\VLVDSSURDFKIRUSROOXWLRQFRQWUROLQWKHUHJLRQZDVUHSRUWHGE\6FKHUHQHWDO
D
3ROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDVVHVVPHQW
)RU HVWLPDWLQJ SROOXWLRQ IURP WKH YDULRXV SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV ZH XVHG WKH IROORZLQJ JHQHUDO
IRUPXOD
(TXDWLRQ >:DVWH/RDG@ >)XQFWLRQDO9DULDEOH@[>3ROOXWLRQ,QWHQVLW\@[>3HQHWUDWLRQ)DFWRU@ ZKHUH WKH ZDVWH ORDG UHSUHVHQWV WKH DFWXDO LQSXW RI SROOXWDQWV LQWR WKH ODJRRQ WKH SROOXWLRQ
LQWHQVLW\UHSUHVHQWVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFDPRXQWRIZDVWHSURGXFHGSHUXQLWRIDFHUWDLQIXQFWLRQDO
YDULDEOH DQG WKH SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRU HQDEOHV LQFRUSRUDWLRQ RI SRVVLEOH SROOXWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ
HIIHFWV HJ ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW $ VXLWDEOH VHOHFWLRQ RI SDUDPHWHUV DOORZV HVWLPDWLRQ RI
GLIILFXOWWRPHDVXUHZDVWHORDGVRQWKHEDVLVRIPRUHHDVLO\DYDLODEOHGDWDVXFKDVSRSXODWLRQ
SURGXFWLRQ DQG ODQGXVH ILJXUHV 7DEOH SUHVHQWV WKH W\SHV RI IXQFWLRQDO YDULDEOHV DQG
SROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVDVDSSOLHGLQWKLVVWXG\
&KDSWHU
• 7DEOH
VRXUFHV
)XQFWLRQDOYDULDEOHVDQGSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUGLIIHUHQWFDWHJRULHVRISROOXWLRQ
3ROOXWLRQVRXUFH
)XQFWLRQDOYDULDEOH
3ROOXWLRQLQWHQVLW\
,QGXVWULHV
+RXVHKROGV
$JULFXOWXUH
$WPRVSKHULF'HSRVLWLRQ
$QQXDOSURGXFWLRQ
3RSXODWLRQQXPEHU
$UHDRIQRQFXOWLYDWHGODQG
6XUIDFHDUHD
:DVWHSURGXFWLRQSHUXQLWSURGXFW
$QQXDOZDVWHSURGXFWLRQSHUSHUVRQ
$QQXDOH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVRIQXWULHQWV
$QQXDOGHSRVLWLRQSHUXQLWRIVXUIDFHDUHD
%HWZHHQWKHDFWXDOVRXUFHDQGLWVHQWU\LQWRWKHZDWHUV\VWHPQXWULHQWORDGVPLJKWGLPLQLVKDV
D UHVXOW RI IRU H[DPSOH VHGLPHQWDWLRQ ELRORJLFDOFKHPLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RU ZDVWHZDWHU
WUHDWPHQWDWSRLQWVRXUFHV7KLVUHGXFWLRQLQDFWXDOORDGLVLQFRUSRUDWHGE\DSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRU
ZKLFKPD\UDQJHIURPLQFDVHRIFRPSOHWHUHGXFWLRQWRLQFDVHRIQRUHGXFWLRQ7KHPRVW
VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV DUH WKRVH UHODWHG WR GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO ZDVWHZDWHU
WUHDWPHQW ZKLFK UHODWH GLUHFWO\ WR WKH WUHDWPHQW HIILFLHQF\ RI WKH SODQW 7\SLFDO WUHDWPHQW
HIILFLHQFLHVIRUGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIIDFLOLWLHVDVUHSRUWHGE\(FRQRPRSRXOXVKDYHEHHQ
XVHGLQWKLVDVVHVVPHQW
7KH DFWXDO DVVHVVPHQW GHPDQGV ILUVWO\ WKH FROOHFWLRQ RI EDVHOLQH GDWD RQ WKH IXQFWLRQDO
YDULDEOHV WKURXJK ILHOG VXUYH\V EXW RIWHQ DOVR IURP DYDLODEOH VWDWLVWLFDO UHSRUWV GDWD IURP
ORFDO QDWLRQDO DQG UHJLRQDO JRYHUQPHQWDO DQG QRQJRYHUQPHQWDO LQVWLWXWLRQV VFLHQWLILF
OLWHUDWXUHDQGRWKHUZULWWHQDQGQRQZULWWHQUHVRXUFHV
• 7DEOH
6RXUFH
8QLW
2YHUYLHZRISROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVDVUHSRUWHGLQOLWHUDWXUH
%2'
1
0D[ 0HDQ
0LQ
3
0D[ 0HDQ
0LQ
0D[ 0HDQ
'RPHVWLF
6HZHUHG
NJFDS\
1RQVHZHUHG
NJFDS\
,QGXVWULDO
3URFHVVVSHFLILFIDFWRUVDVOLVWHGE\(FRQRPRSRXOXV
/DQGUXQRII
&XOWLYDWHG
1RQFXOWLYDWHG
NJKD\
1$
NJKD\
1$
1$
$WPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
:HWGHSRVLWLRQ NJKD\
'U\GHSRVLWLRQ NJKD\
1$
1$1RWDSSOLFDEOH 0HDQYDOXHVDVUHSRUWHGE\(FRQRPRSRXOXVZLWKIDFWRUUDQJHV 0D[LPXP
DQG PLQLPXP YDOXHV DV UHSRUWHG E\ (FRQRPRSRXOXV DQG +REEHOHQ 0HDQ UHSUHVHQW
DYHUDJH9DOXHVE\+REEHOHQFRQFHUQµHQGRISLSH¶YDOXHVPHDVXUHGDWZDWHULQIORZSRLQWVZKLOH
(FRQRPRSRXOXVSUHVHQWVDWVRXUFHYDOXHV$IWHU7KRPDQQDQG0XHOOHU$FWXDOPHDVXUHPHQWVIRU
,YRU\&RDVWE\/HPDVVRQDQG3DJqV+LJKVDQGORZVFRPSLOHGIURPGDWDRQIURPYDULRXVKXPLG
WURSLFDOUHJLRQV%RRWVPDHWDO(NOXQGDQG0F'RZHOOV(ULNVVRQ*DOORZD\HWDO
/HZLV0RUDOHVHWDO7KRUQWRQ'DWDRQGU\GHSRVLWLRQLQKXPDQWURSLFDO
DUHDVLVYHU\VFDUFH$YDLODEOHVRXUFHVRQWURSLFDOFRDVWDODUHDVHJ$KQDQG-DPHV3RRUHWDO
LQGLFDWHKRZHYHUWKDWGU\GHSRVLWLRQFRQWULEXWHVEHWZHHQDQGRIWRWDOQXWULHQWGHSRVLWLRQ
ZLWKDFRQWULEXWLRQPRVWOLNHO\IRU1DQGGU\3GHSRVLWLRQPRVWO\LQWKHKLJKHUUDQJH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
,QXVLQJWKHDERYHSURFHGXUHWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRISROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVEHFRPHVGHOLFDWHVLQFH
IDFWRUVOLNHZDVWHSURGXFWLRQSHUXQLWSURGXFWRUSHUVRQRUQXWULHQWH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVIRUODQG
UXQRIIPD\YDU\ZLGHO\DFURVVFDVHV5DQJHVRIDFWXDOYDOXHVUHSRUWHGIRUGRPHVWLFHIIOXHQWV
ODQGUXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDVIRXQGLQOLWHUDWXUHZRUOGZLGHFDVHVDUHSUHVHQWHG
LQ7DEOH,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDW%2'ORDGVLQWKLVVWXG\XVHGDVDQLQGLFDWRUIRUSRLQW
VRXUFHRUJDQLFSROOXWLRQLQDQGDURXQG$ELGMDQDUHRQO\VSHFLILHGIRUGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDO
VRXUFHV)XUWKHUPRUHWKHZHWGHSRVLWLRQYDOXHVOLVWHGDVµPHDQ¶UHSUHVHQWDFWXDOVDPSOHVWDNHQ
E\/HPDVVRQDQG3DJHVIRUWKH(EULpODJRRQGXULQJ)RULQGXVWULDOHIIOXHQWV
(FRQRPRSRXOXVSUHVHQWVDQH[WHQVLYHOLVWRISURFHVVVSHFLILFSDUDPHWHUVIRU%2'DQG
1ZKLFKDUHQRWUHSHDWHGKHUH
1XWULHQWEDODQFHDVVHVVPHQW
7R DVVHVV WKH QXWULHQW EXGJHW RI WKH ODJRRQ V\VWHP D GLPHQVLRQDO PXOWLVHJPHQW LQSXW
RXWSXWPRGHOLVDSSOLHG7KHPRGHOVSDWLDOO\DYHUDJHVFRQFHQWUDWLRQVIRUSUHGHILQHGVHJPHQWV
RIWKHODJRRQDQGWHPSRUDOO\RYHUDODUJHUSHULRGRIWLPHIRUZKLFKVWHDG\VWDWHFRQGLWLRQV
PD\EHDVVXPHG,WLVWKHUHZLWKQRWVXLWDEOHWRSUHGLFWVKRUWWHUPWHPSRUDODQGORFDOLVHGVSDWLDO
GHYLDWLRQVDQGIOXFWXDWLRQVEXWLVUDWKHUDXVHIXOWRROWRDVVHVVWKHRYHUDOOQXWULHQWEDODQFHSHU
VHJPHQW (ODERUDWLRQ RI WKH PRGHO HTXDWLRQV LV QRW SUHVHQWHG KHUH EXW LV GHVFULEHG LQ IRU
H[DPSOH7KRPDQQHWDO$VVXPLQJWKDWWKHQHWUHWHQWLRQSURFHVVHVLQYROYLQJQXWULHQWV
HJ VHGLPHQWDWLRQ QLWULILFDWLRQGHQLWULILFDWLRQ DUH OLQHDUO\ UHODWHG WR WKH QXWULHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHIRUHDFKVHJPHQWLFDQEHGHVFULEHGDVIROORZV
(TXDWLRQ
: $L
& $L u
¦ 4
L
RXW
>
@
. $L u 9 L ¦ & $V U D L r u 4LQV U D L r ZKHUH IRU HDFK VHJPHQW L :$ UHSUHVHQWV FXPXODWLYH LQSXW RI QXWULHQW $ >J\@ &$ LV WKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI QXWULHQW $ >J P@ 4RXW DQG 4LQ DUH ZDWHU RXWIORZ DQG LQIORZ UHVSHFWLYHO\
>P\@ 9 LV WKH VHJPHQW YROXPH >P@ .$ UHSUHVHQW WKH RYHUDOO UHWHQWLRQ UDWH RI QXWULHQW $
>\@,QIORZRXWIORZPD\EHIURPWRVHDVULYHUVUDQGDWPRVSKHUHDRUIURPWRHDFKRI
WKHQHLJKERXULQJVHJPHQWVLr
:LWKVHGLPHQWDWLRQDVWKHSULQFLSOHUHWHQWLRQPHFKDQLVPVXFKDVLQWKHFDVHRI3.$LLVHTXDO
WR
(TXDWLRQ
. $L
Y L$
+L
ZKHUHY$LUHSUHVHQWVWKHQHWVHGLPHQWDWLRQYHORFLW\LQFRUSRUDWLQJUHVXVSHQVLRQIRUQXWULHQW$
>P\@DQG+LLVWKHDYHUDJHGHSWK>P@RIVHJPHQWL
)RUWKHSXUSRVHRIWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHDVVHVVPHQWWKHODJRRQZDVVXEGLYLGHGLQWRVHJPHQWVDV
SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH %HFDXVH RI WKH GLIIHUHQFH LQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV SDUWLFXODUO\ GHSWK
VHJPHQW,LVIXUWKHUPRUHVSOLWLQWRWKH$JKLHQ,DDQG3RWRX,EODJRRQVUHVXOWLQJLQDWRWDORI
VHJPHQWV 3 VHGLPHQWDWLRQ YHORFLWLHV ZHUH HVWLPDWHG XVLQJ DQ HPSLULFDO UHODWLRQ E\
9ROOHQZHLGHU
&KDSWHU
(TXDWLRQ
Y 3L
T L u W GL ZKHUHWGUHSUHVHQWVWKHUHWHQWLRQWLPH\DQGTLVWKHK\GUDXOLFORDGLQJ+WG>P\@,WVKRXOG
EH QRWHG WKDW (TXDWLRQ EDVHG RQ D ODUJH QXPEHU RI REVHUYDWLRQV IRU 3 VHGLPHQWDWLRQ
YHORFLW\LQFRUSRUDWHVWKHQHWHIIHFWRIVHGLPHQWZDWHULQWHUDFWLRQLQFOXGLQJUHVXVSHQVLRQDQG
PL[LQJHIIHFWV
,QWKHFDVHRI1DQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRURIUHWHQWLRQLVQH[WWRVHGLPHQWDWLRQGHQLWULILFDWLRQ$
ODUJH QXPEHU RI IDFWRUV LQIOXHQFH GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWHV LQFOXGLQJ GHSWK IORZ UDWH UHVLGHQFH
WLPH R[\JHQ FRQWHQW RUJDQLF FRQWHQW RI VHGLPHQWV DQG WHPSHUDWXUH ZKLFK PDNHV
GHQLWULILFDWLRQGLIILFXOWWRPRGHO+RZDUWKHWDO6HLW]LQJHU$QHPSLULFDOUHODWLRQ
IRURYHUDOOQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQKDVKRZHYHUEHHQGHWHUPLQHGE\1L[RQHWDOEDVHGRQ
GDWDIRUHVWXDULHVRIDODUJHYDULHW\RIVL]HDQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRQWKH$WODQWLFFRDVW
(TXDWLRQ
L
1 UHWDLQHG
/RJ T L 7KHIDFWRU>1UHWDLQHG@UHSUHVHQWWKHQHW1UHWHQWLRQHIIHFWVZKLFKLQFOXGHVVHGLPHQWDWLRQUH
VXVSHQVLRQ QLWULILFDWLRQ DQG GHQLWULILFDWLRQ (TXDWLRQ UHVXOWV LQ D VOLJKWO\ GLIIHUHQW PDVV
EDODQFHIRU1
(TXDWLRQ
:
L
1
>
L
¦ & 1V U D L r u 4LQV U D L r
& 1L u ¦ 4RXW
L
1 UHWDLQHG
@
7KHILUVWVWHSWRZDUGVGHYHORSPHQWRIDVHJPHQWHGQXWULHQWEDODQFHRIWKHODJRRQV\VWHPLVWKH
HODERUDWLRQRIDK\GURORJLFDOEDODQFHRIWKHV\VWHPLQFOXGLQJZDWHULQIORZDQGRXWIORZIURP
DQGWRULYHUVDQGWKHVHDUDLQIDOOHYDSRUDWLRQDQGH[FKDQJHEHWZHHQWKHVHJPHQWV)RUWKLV
SXUSRVHH[FKDQJHEHWZHHQWKHYDULRXVVHJPHQWVFDQEHGHWHUPLQHGXVLQJ(TXDWLRQDQG
(TXDWLRQZLWKVDOW1D&ODVDQLQHUWWUDFHUHOHPHQW7KHDVVXPSWLRQLQWKLVLVWKDWQRQHW
UHWHQWLRQ RI VDOW WDNHV SODFH LQ WKH ODJRRQ .$ 2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKH WKXV GHYHORSHG
K\GURORJLFDOEDODQFHWKHPRGHOFDQEHDSSOLHGWRDVVHVVQXWULHQWORDGVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
6FHQDULRDQDO\VLV
+DYLQJJDLQHGLQVLJKWLQWKHZDWHUV\VWHPDQGLWVSROOXWLRQVRXUFHVWKHPRGHOGHYHORSHGFDQ
EHDSSOLHGWRDQDO\VHWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIGLIIHUHQWGHYHORSPHQWVFHQDULRVDQGSROLFLHV7KH
EDVHVFHQDULR6FRQFHUQVWKHVLWXDWLRQRIDXWRQRPRXVGHYHORSPHQWRYHUWKHSHULRGWR
ZKLFK DVVXPHV WKDW SROOXWLRQ ORDGV LQFUHDVH ZLWK SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK ZLWKRXW DQ\
FRUUHFWLYHPHDVXUHVWDNHQ)XUWKHUPRUHRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHSURMHFWHGVLWXDWLRQDOWHUQDWLYH
SROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQSROLFLHV66ZHUHDQDO\VHGWRJDLQLQVLJKWLQWRWKHUHODWLYHLPSOLFDWLRQV
RIVXFKPHDVXUHV7DEOHSURYLGHVDQRYHUYLHZRIWKHVFHQDULRVDQDO\VHG
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
• 7DEOH 6FHQDULRVDQDO\VHGDVSDUWRIWKLVVWXG\
6FHQDULR
3HULRG
3ROLF\
6
%DVHVFHQDULRDXWRQRPRXVGHYHORSPHQW
6
SRLQWVRXUFHSROOXWLRQORDGUHGXFWLRQ
6
GLIIXVHVRXUFHSROOXWLRQORDGUHGXFWLRQ
6
RYHUDOOSROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
$QXPEHURIDVVXPSWLRQVZHUHPDGHIRUWKHDQDO\VLVRIWKHYDULRXVVFHQDULRV
3RSXODWLRQ JURZWK LV WKH NH\ IDFWRU GHWHUPLQLQJ SROOXWLRQ ORDGV 9DULRXV VFHQDULRV IRU
IXWXUH SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK H[LVW UDQJLQJ IURP FRQWLQXRXV H[SRQHQWLDO JURZWK WR UDSLGO\
GHFOLQLQJ JURZWK UDWHV DQG HYHQ SRSXODWLRQ GHFUHDVH LQ IXWXUH )RU WKH SXUSRVH RI RXU
DQDO\VLV ZH DSSOLHG DQ LQWHUPHGLDWH VFHQDULR EDVHG XSRQ WKH ,3&& 65(6 % VFHQDULR
,3&&IRU:HVW$IULFD
7RWDOGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQORDGIRU$ELGMDQLVDVVXPHGWREHOLQHDUO\UHODWHGWR
WKHSRSXODWLRQVL]HRIWKHWRZQLHZKHQWKHSRSXODWLRQGRXEOHV1DQG3ORDGVZRXOGDOVR
GRXEOH,WLVQRWHGWKDWWKLVDVVXPSWLRQSUREDEO\XQGHUHVWLPDWHVIXWXUHSROOXWLRQORDGVLQ
YLHZ RI WKH H[SHFWHG LQFUHDVH LQ VWDQGDUG RI OLYLQJ ,W LV KRZHYHU D JHQHUDOO\ DSSOLHG
DVVXPSWLRQIRUWKHSUHGLFWLRQRIXUEDQSROOXWLRQORDGVHJ3HLHUOVHWDO.URH]HDQG
6HLW]LQJHU
1XWULHQWODQGUXQRIIWRZDWHUFRXUVHVLVDVVXPHGOLQHDUO\UHODWHGWRWKHRYHUDOOSRSXODWLRQ
VL]H IRU WKH FDWFKPHQW DUHD 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW DV WKH SRSXODWLRQ LQFUHDVHV DJULFXOWXUDO
SURGXFWLRQ LQFUHDVHV DW D UDWH HTXDO WR WKLV LQFUHDVH ZKHWKHU WKURXJK WKH H[SORLWDWLRQ RI
DGGLWLRQDODJULFXOWXUDOJURXQGVRUWKURXJKWKHLQWHQVLILFDWLRQRIH[LVWLQJSURGXFWLRQ7KLV
DVVXPSWLRQ LV LQ OLQH ZLWK WKH H[SHFWHG JURZWK LQ IHUWLOL]HU DSSOLFDWLRQ DV HVWLPDWHG E\
%RXZPDQDQG.UHLOHPDQDQG%RXZPDQIRU:HVW$IULFD
3URMHFWLRQV IRU WKH LQFUHDVH LQ DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ ZHUH WDNHQ IURP 6HLW]LQJHU DQG
.URH]HDQG.URH]HDQG6HLW]LQJHUZKRHVWLPDWHDQLQFUHDVHLQ1GHSRVLWLRQ
RQWKHUHJLRQRIRYHUWKHSHULRGWR$VVXPLQJWKHVDPHZRXOGDSSO\IRU3
DQGSUHVXPLQJDOLQHDUWUHQGIRUWKHDUHDVXUURXQGLQJWKH(EULpODJRRQDQQXDOLQFUHDVHLQ
DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQRI1DQG3ZRXOGEH
5HVXOWV
3ROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDVVHVVPHQW
7DEOHSURYLGHVDQRYHUYLHZRIWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHSROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDVVHVVPHQWEDVHGRQ
WKHPHWKRGRORJ\ODLGRXWLQVHFWLRQLQSDUWLFXODU7DEOHSDJH%DVHOLQH\HDUIRU
WKHDVVHVVPHQWLV,WLVFOHDUIURP7DEOHWKDWWKHUDQJHVPLQPD[IRUWKHHVWLPDWHG
ORDGVDUHFRQVLGHUDEO\ZLGHSDUWLFXODUO\ZKHUHLWFRQFHUQVODQGUXQRII1HYHUWKHOHVVFHUWDLQ
LPSRUWDQWFRQFOXVLRQVPD\EHGUDZQIURPWKHWDEOH
5HVXOWVVKRZWKDWRQWKHEDVLVRIDYHUDJHSROOXWDQWORDGVWRWKHODJRRQGRPHVWLFORDGVDQG
LQGXVWU\ DUH ERWK LPSRUWDQW LQ WHUPV RI RUJDQLF HIIOXHQWV %2' 'RPHVWLF ZDVWHZDWHU
FRQWULEXWHVDSSUR[LPDWHO\WZRWKLUGVRIWKHWRWDOORDG
&KDSWHU
1XWULHQW1DQG3LQSXWLVODUJHVWIURPODQGUXQRII'RPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOZDVWHZDWHULV
OLNHO\WRFRQWULEXWHVLJQLILFDQWO\KRZHYHUDIDFWRUWKDWPD\SOD\DUROHLQWKHXUEDQLVHG
VHJPHQW RI WKH ODJRRQ VHJPHQW ,,, $WPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ ODVWO\ LV D QRQQHJOLJLEOH
IDFWRULQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFH
• 7DEOH (VWLPDWHG%2'1DQG3ORDGVWRWKH(EULpODJRRQIRUWKH\HDU
6RXUFH
%2'>W\@
0LQ
1>W\@
0D[
0HDQ
0LQ
0D[
3>W\@
0HDQ
0LQ
0D[
0HDQ
'RPHVWLF
6HZHUHG
1RQVHZHUHG
,QGXVWULDO
7RWDO
8QNRZQ
/DQGUXQRII
&XOWLYDWHG
1$
1$
:HW
GHSRVLWLRQ
1$
'U\GHSRVLWLRQ
1$
1RQFXOWLYDWHG
$WPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
7RWDO
2QO\ GHSRVLWLRQ RQ WKH ODJRRQ VXUIDFH DUHD LV FDOFXODWHG 'HSRVLWLRQ RQ ODQG LV LQFRUSRUDWHG LQ ODQG UXQRII
3ROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRU3ORDGVIURPLQGXVWULHVDUHUDUHDQGWKHLUFRQWULEXWLRQZDVWKHUHIRUHQRWFDOFXODWHG
1XWULHQWEDODQFHDVVHVVPHQW
185
VI
365
V
1,606
IV
1,000
II
25
42
27
77
5,800
III
46
130
107
149
181
107
211
357
168
284
'DWD RQ UDLQIDOO HYDSRUDWLRQ DQG ULYHU DQG VHDZDWHU LQIORZ DV ZHOO DV VDOLQLW\ OHYHOV ZHUH
REWDLQHGIURP'XIRXU)LJXUHSUHVHQWWKH\HDUO\DYHUDJHGK\GURORJLFDOEDODQFHRI
WKHODJRRQV\VWHP
0
Ib
Precipitation /
Evaporation
Ia
Exchange
Agneby
River
Sea
Comoe
River
0
17
1,534
2,570
7,122
38,030
14,545
48,173
250
917
0
34
69
0
River / Sea
Inflow / outflow
Me
River
• )LJXUH +\GURORJLFDOEDODQFHRIWKH(EULpODJRRQV\VWHPVKRZLQJLQWHUVHJPHQWDOIORZVDV
ZHOODVUDLQIDOODQGHYDSRUDWLRQSHUVHJPHQW4LQDQG4RXW>0P\@LQ(TXDWLRQSDJH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
'XIRXUSUHVHQWGDWDRQQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHYDULRXVVHJPHQWVIRUWKHSHULRG
±/DWHUGDWDRQWRWDO1DQG3FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLVQRWDYDLODEOH$VXPPDU\RIWKLV
GDWDLVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH$YHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVUHSRUWHGIRUWRWDO1DQGWRWDO3DUH
DQGPJPUHVSHFWLYHO\EXWERWKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDQGWKH13UDWLRYDU\FRQVLGHUDEO\
DFURVVWKHGLIIHUHQWSDUWVRIWKHODJRRQ:KHUHDV1FRQFHQWUDWLRQUHDFKHVLWVORZHVWYDOXHVLQ
VHJPHQWV,,DQG,,PRVWH[SRVHGWRWKHH[FKDQJHZLWKWKHVHD3FRQFHQWUDWLRQLVORZHVWLQ
VHJPHQW,7KLVILQGLQJFRUUHVSRQGVZLWKUHVXOWVIURP'XIRXUHWDODQG'XIRXU
ZKRH[HFXWHGDVWXG\RQQXWULHQWOLPLWDWLRQLQWKH(EULpODJRRQDQGFRQFOXGHGDYDULDWLRQLQ
QXWULHQW OLPLWDWLRQ IURP 1 OLPLWDWLRQ LQ WKH ERG\ RI WKH ODJRRQ 13 DWDW WR 3
OLPLWDWLRQ LQ VHJPHQW , RI WKH ODJRRQ 13 DWDW 7KH ODWWHU FDQ EH UHODWHG WR WKH ODUJH
LQIOX[RIIUHVKZDWHUIURPWKH&RPRpDQG0pULYHUVLQWRUHVSHFWLYHO\VHJPHQWV,DQG,,
9,
9
,9
,,,
,,
,E
,D
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
3KRVSKRURXV
1XWULHQWORDGW\
1LWURJHQ
&>PJP @ 5HWHQWLRQ>@
• )LJXUH 7KH(EULpODJRRQQXWULHQWEDODQFHSHUVHJPHQWRIWKHODJRRQV\VWHP
2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHFDOLEUDWHGQXWULHQWPRGHOSROOXWLRQORDGVWRWKHYDULRXVVHJPHQWVFDQEH
FDOFXODWHG(TXDWLRQSDJHDQG(TXDWLRQSDJH5HVXOWVRIWKHFDOFXODWLRQDUH
SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH $SDUW IURP WKH FDOFXODWHG WRWDO ORDGV QXWULHQW UHWHQWLRQ UDWHV DUH
SUHVHQWHG WR LOOXVWUDWH WKH UHODWLYH LPSRUWDQFH RI QXWULHQW ORVV PHFKDQLVPV VXFK DV
VHGLPHQWDWLRQ DQG GHQLWULILFDWLRQ LQ WKH YDULRXV VHJPHQWV ,W LV FOHDU WKDW VXFK HIIHFWV DUH
FRQVLGHUDEO\ PRUH LPSRUWDQW LQ VHJPHQWV ZLWK ORZ UHQHZDO UDWHVVHH7DEOHSDJH
WKHQLQWKRVHVHJPHQWVZKHUHWKHUHLVDODUJHLQDQGRXWIORZRIULYHUDQGVHDZDWHUVHJPHQWV
,E,,DQG,,,
&DOFXODWHG1UHWHQWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRWKHHPSLULFDOIRUPXODE\1L[RQHWDOZRXOGUHVXOWVLQDQHJDWLYHUHWHQWLRQ
UDWH7KHYDOXHFKRVHQIRU1UHWHQWLRQLQVHJPHQW,,,LVWKHUHIRUHSXWHTXDOWRWKDWRI3QRWLQJWKDWUHWHQWLRQLVREYLRXVO\
RQO\DPLQRUIDFWRULQWKH1EDODQFHIRUWKLVVHJPHQWDQGWKHRXWFRPHRIWKHDQDO\VLVWKHUHIRUHKDUGO\DIIHFWHGE\WKLV
DVVXPSWLRQ
&KDSWHU
$VLVFOHDUIURP)LJXUHVHJPHQW,,,RIWKHODJRRQUHFHLYHVWKHODUJHVWORDGW1\
W 3\ ZKLFK FDQ EH UHODWHG WR WKH ORFDWLRQ RI $ELGMDQ LQ WKLV VHJPHQW 1 DQG 3
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQVHJPHQW,,,DUHFRQVLGHUDEO\EHORZDYHUDJHDVDUHVXOWRIWKHH[FKDQJHZLWK
WKHRSHQRFHDQWKURXJKWKH9ULGL&DQDO7KHPDLQORDGVWRWKHRWKHUVHJPHQWVLVIURPODQG
UXQRIIWKURXJKULYHUVDQGUDQJHVIURPW\IRU1DQGW\IRU3RULJLQDWLQJIURPWKH
&RPRpULYHU,,WRMXVWRYHUW\IRU1DQGW\IRU3IURPWKH0p,DQG$JQpE\
,9ULYHUVUHVSHFWLYHO\/RDGVWRWKHRWKHUVHJPHQWVRULJLQDWLQJPDLQO\IURPGLUHFWUXQRIIDQG
VPDOOHUVWUHDPVDUHPXFKVPDOOHU,WPD\WKHUHIRUHEHFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHQXWULHQW
PRGHO DUH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH GHPRJUDSKLF DQG K\GURORJLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH ODJRRQ
V\VWHP
6FHQDULRDQDO\VLV
'DWDIRUDQGZHUHWDNHQIURPSRSXODWLRQVWDWLVWLFVIRU,YRU\&RDVW3URMHFWLRQVDQG
LQWHUSRODWLRQV ZHUH PDGH DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH ,3&& 65(6%VFHQDULRIRU:HVW$IULFD,3&&
$FFRUGLQJWRWKHSURMHFWLRQVSRSXODWLRQLQWKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDZLOOLQFUHDVHVHYHQIROG
IURPWRZLWKXUEDQSRSXODWLRQJURZLQJHYHQIDVWHUDVDUHVXOWRIWKHPRYHWRWKH
FLWLHV
%DVHG XSRQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH SDJH DQG WKH
DVVXPSWLRQVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHPHWKRGRORJ\VHFWLRQ1DQG3ORDGVIRUWKHEDVHVFHQDULR6
ZHUHFDOFXODWHG7KHUHVXOWVDVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUHIRU1VKRZDFRQVLGHUDEOHLQFUHDVHLQ
QXWULHQWORDGRYHUILYHIROGEHWZHHQDQG5HVXOWVIRU3DUHVLPLODU7KHLQFUHDVHLV
PDLQO\ UHODWHG WR WKH LQFUHDVH LQ QXWULHQW ORDGV IURP XUEDQ ZDVWHZDWHU DQG ODQG UXQRII DV D
UHVXOWRILQWHQVLILHGDJULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHV
1ORDGW\
8UEDQ(IIOXHQWV
/DQGUXQRII
'LUHFWGHSRVLWLRQ
7RWDO
<HDU
• )LJXUH 3URMHFWHG1ORDGWRWKH(EULpODJRRQIRU±EDVHVFHQDULR±6DQG
UHODWLYHFRQWULEXWLRQVIURPXUEDQHIIOXHQWVODQGUXQRIIDQGGLUHFWDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ0DUNHG
SRLQWVUHSUHVHQWPRGHOOHG\HDUV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
,WLVDWWKLVSRLQWSRVVLEOHWRFRPSDUHWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHDVVHVVPHQWZLWKWKH
UDSLG SROOXWLRQ VRXUFHV DVVHVVPHQW SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH SDJH 5HIHUHQFH \HDU IRU
FRPSDULVRQLVWKH\HDU)LJXUHVKRZVWKHUHVXOWVIRUWKHEDVHVFHQDULR\HDU
EDVHGXSRQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHDVVHVVPHQW&RPSDULQJWKHVHUHVXOWVWR7DEOHLWPD\EH
FRQFOXGHGWKDWGLVWULEXWLRQRIORDGVDPRQJVRXUFHVLVTXLWHGLIIHUHQWIURPWKDWH[SHFWHGRQWKH
EDVLVRIDYHUDJHSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLW\YDOXHVUHSRUWHGLQOLWHUDWXUH7DEOHSDJH:KLOH
WKHSROOXWLRQORDGIURPGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOVRXUFHVLVFORVHWRWKHPD[LPXPHVWLPDWHIRU
ERWK 1 DQG 3 ODQG UXQRII LV FRQVLGHUDEO\ ORZHU WKDQ DYHUDJH YDOXHV UHSRUWHG LQ OLWHUDWXUH
7RWDODQQXDO1ORDGVWRWKHODJRRQIRUDUHHVWLPDWHGDWNWRIZKLFKIURPXUEDQ
VRXUFHVIURPODQGUXQRIIDQGIURPDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ)LJXUHVIRU3DUHNW
DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\%DVHGRQWKHFDOFXODWHGQXWULHQWLQIOX[IURPULYHUVSROOXWLRQ
LQWHQVLWLHVUHDFKDQDYHUDJHRINJKD\IRU1DQGNJKD\IRU37KLVPD\EHUHODWHG
WRWKHUHODWLYHO\ORZIHUWLOLVHUDSSOLFDWLRQUDWHLQWKHDUHDFRPELQHGZLWKOLPLWHGVRLOHURVLRQ
SUREOHPV
W
W
13%
13%
W
45%
39%
W
48%
42%
8UEDQ(IIOXHQWV
W
/DQGUXQRII
W
'LUHFWGHSRVLWLRQ
1LWURJHQ
3KRVSKRURXV
• )LJXUH &DOFXODWHG1DQG3ORDGVWRWKH(EULpODJRRQIRUWKH\HDUEDVHVFHQDULR±6
DQGUHODWLYHFRQWULEXWLRQVIURPXUEDQHIIOXHQWVODQGUXQRIIDQGGLUHFWGHSRVLWLRQ
7KH PRGHO ZDV DSSOLHG WR FDOFXODWH WKH HIIHFW RI JURZLQJ QXWULHQW ORDGLQJ RQ QXWULHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHODJRRQ5HVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUHDQG)LJXUH3UHVHQWHG
DUHORZHVWYROXPHZHLJKWHGDYHUDJHDQGKLJKHVWDQQXDOPHDQFRQFHQWUDWLRQV)RU1ORZHVW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVZHUHFDOFXODWHGIRUVHJPHQW,,,LQDOOFDVHVDSDUWIURPZKHQ1LQVHJPHQW
,,LVVOLJKWO\ORZHUDIDFWWKDWFDQEHUHODWHGWRWKHH[FKDQJHZLWKWKHRSHQRFHDQWKURXJKWKH
9ULGL &DQDO )RU 3 WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ VHJPHQW ,,, ZDV IRXQG MXVW EHORZ DYHUDJH )LJXUH
ZKLOH3ZDVORZHVWLQVHJPHQW,XQGHULQIOXHQFHIURPWKHKLJKLQIOX[RIIUHVKZDWHU
IURPWKH0pDQG&RPRpULYHUV%RWKIRU1DQG3KLJKHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVZHUHFDOFXODWHGIRU
VHJPHQW9,ZKHUHZDWHULVTXLWHVWDJQDQWDQGLQWHUDFWLRQZLWKWKHµFOHDQHU¶ZDWHUVIURPWKH
RFHDQDQGLQIORZLQJULYHUVLVYHU\OLPLWHG
&KDSWHU
&1PJP +LJK
$YHUDJH
/RZVHJPHQW,,,
<HDU
• )LJXUH 0HDQDQQXDO1FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHODJRRQIRU±EDVHVFHQDULR±
60DUNHGSRLQWVUHSUHVHQWPRGHOOHG\HDUV7KHORZKLJKLQWHUYDOVUHSUHVHQWWKHUDQJHRI
DQQXDOPHDQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVIRXQGLQWKHYDULRXVVHJPHQWVRIWKHODJRRQ
&3PJP +LJK
$YHUDJH
6HJPHQW,,,
/RZVHJPHQW,
<HDU
• )LJXUH 0HDQDQQXDO3FRQFHQWUDWLRQV!LQWKHODJRRQIRU±EDVHVFHQDULR
60DUNHGSRLQWVUHSUHVHQWPRGHOOHG\HDUV7KHORZKLJKLQWHUYDOVUHSUHVHQWWKHUDQJHRI
DQQXDOPHDQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVIRXQGLQWKHYDULRXVVHJPHQWVRIWKHODJRRQ
7KHEDVHVFHQDULRSURMHFWLRQVVKRZDQDODUPLQJSHUVSHFWLYHZLWKUDSLGO\LQFUHDVLQJ1DQG3
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH ODJRRQ E\DIDFWRURYHUWKHSHULRG8QIRUWXQDWHO\EDVHG
XSRQWKHLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWLVDYDLODEOHLWLVLPSRVVLEOHWRSURYLGHDUHOLDEOHSUHGLFWLRQRIWKH
JURZWKLQDOJDHDQGVXEVHTXHQWHIIHFWVWKDWDUHUHODWHGWRWKLVULVH$WWHPSWVWRUHODWHQXWULHQW
DYDLODELOLW\LQWKHODJRRQWRELRPDVVJURZWKKDYHDV\HWEHHQXQVXFFHVVIXODVDFRQVHTXHQFHRI
VFDUFHQHVVRIGDWDRQHFRORJLFDOSDUDPHWHUVVXFKDVSK\WRSODQNWRQJURZWKNLQHWLFVDVZHOODV
WKHVXEVWDQWLDOVHDVRQDODQGVSDWLDOYDULDWLRQVZLWKLQWKHODJRRQV\VWHPVLWVHOI'XIRXUHWDO
'XIRXU %DVHG XSRQ WKH SUHVHQW VWDWH KRZHYHU LW PD\ EH FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH
ODJRRQZLOOLQWKHQHDUIXWXUHUHDFKDKLJKO\HXWURSKLFVWDWHRYHULWVWRWDOOHQJWKZKHUHQRZWKLV
HIIHFWLVFRQILQHGWRFHUWDLQVHFWLRQV&RQGLWLRQVRIDQR[LDQRZFRQILQHGWRFHUWDLQED\VLQWKH
$ELGMDQDUHDZLOOEHFRPHSUHYDOHQWZLWKGLVDVWURXVHIIHFWVWRHFRORJLFDODQGKXPDQOLIH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
9DULRXVVFHQDULRVIRUSROOXWLRQSUHYHQWLRQPHDVXUHVZHUHDQDO\VHG5HVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ
)LJXUH ,W PD\ EH FRQFOXGHG WKDW UHGXFLQJ SRLQWVRXUFH SROOXWLRQ ZLOO FRQVLGHUDEO\
LPSURYHWKHVLWXDWLRQLQVHJPHQW,,,DURXQGWKHFLW\RI$ELGMDQ,WZLOOKRZHYHUKDUGO\DIIHFW
WKH FRQGLWLRQ LQ WKH RWKHU SDUWV RI WKH V\VWHP 5HGXFLQJ QRQSRLQW VRXUFH SROOXWLRQ PDLQO\
ODQGUXQRIILVFDOFXODWHGWRUHVXOWLQDFRQVLGHUDEOHLPSURYHPHQWRIWKHRYHUDOOFRQGLWLRQRI
WKHODJRRQZLWKDGGLWLRQDOSRLQWVRXUFHSROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQUHVXOWLQJLQDQLPSURYHPHQWRIWKH
VHJPHQW,,,FRQGLWLRQV,QDOOFDVHVKRZHYHUWKHFRQGLWLRQRIWKHODJRRQZRXOGUHPDLQLQDQ
DODUPLQJVWDWHZLWKQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVQHDUO\GRXEOLQJWKHSUHVHQWOHYHOV,WLVWKHUHIRUH
EH\RQGDQ\GRXEWWKDWWKHODJRRQZLOOQRWEHDEOHWREHDUWKHSURMHFWHGSUHVVXUHOHYHOVZLWKRXW
IDUUHDFKLQJSROOXWLRQPLWLJDWLRQPHDVXUHVSXWLQSODFH
'RQRWKLQJ
62EDVHVFHQDULR
VFHQDULR
$XWRQRPRXV
GHYHORSPHQW
SRLQWVRXUFH
6SRLQWVRXUFH
SROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
SROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
SRLQWVRXUFH
SROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
QRQSRLQW
6QRQSRLQWVRXUFH
SROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
SROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
$YHUDJH
QRQSRLQW
SROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
+LJK
RYHUDOO
6RYHUDOO
SROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
SROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
/RZVHJPHQW,,,
RYHUDOO
SROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
$YHUDJH
6HJPHQW,,,
+LJK
/RZVHJPHQW,
• )LJXUH 1DQG3FRQFHQWUDWLRQV&1DQG&3LQWKHODJRRQLQIRUGLIIHUHQWSROOXWLRQ
UHGXFWLRQVFHQDULRV
'LVFXVVLRQ
7KHWZRPRVWLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUVLQWKHQXWULHQWPRGHODUHWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI1DQG3DQGWKH
OHYHO RI QXWULHQW UHWHQWLRQ LQ WKH V\VWHP $V LW FRQFHUQV WKH ILUVW WKH DYHUDJH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
DSSOLHG DUH EDVHG XSRQ H[WHQVLYH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ E\ 256720 D UHQRZQHG LQWHUQDWLRQDO
UHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWH 'XIRXU DQG LV WKHUHIRUH FRQVLGHUHG WR EH TXLWH UHOLDEOH $V LW
FRQFHUQV UHWHQWLRQ WKH DSSOLHG HPSLULFDO PRGHOV E\ 9ROOHQZHLGHU DQG 1L[RQ HW DO
DUHEDVHGXSRQGDWDIURPRWKHUZDWHUVKHGVDYHUDJHGRYHUDODUJHQXPEHURIGLIIHUHQW
V\VWHPV/HYHOVRIQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQLQZDWHUVKHGVDUHKRZHYHUNQRZQWRYDU\FRQVLGHUDEO\
1L[RQHWDO6HLW]LQJHU9ROOHQZHLGHU)RUWKRVHVHJPHQWVRIWKHODJRRQ
ZKHUH QXWULHQW UHWHQWLRQ SOD\V D PLQRU UROH VHJPHQWV ,E ,, DQG ,,, WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH
DVVHVVPHQW DUH WKHUHIRUH FRQVLGHUHG UHOLDEOH DQG SROOXWLRQ ORDGV FDOFXODWHG IRU $ELGMDQ
VHJPHQW,,,DQGWKH&RPRpDQG0pULYHUVDUHUHODWLYHO\DFFXUDWH)RUVHJPHQWV,D99,
DQGWRDOHVVHUH[WHQG,9)LJXUHSDJHWKHUHVXOWVVKRXOGKRZHYHUEHUHJDUGHGZLWK
VRPHFDUHDQGHUURUVXSWRDIDFWRUZRXOGEHSRVVLEOH
$V LW FRQFHUQV WKH VFHQDULR DQDO\VLV WKH PDLQ DVVXPSWLRQ LQYROYHV SRSXODWLRQ LQFUHDVH
'LIIHUHQW VFHQDULRV H[LVW EXW WKH UHODWLYHO\ VPDOO YDULDWLRQ LQ LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\ UHFRJQLVHG
VFHQDULRVRQWKHWLPHVFDOHRIWKHDQDO\VLVZRXOGQRWVXEVWDQWLDOO\DIIHFWRXUUHVXOWV7KHVDPH
FRXQWV IRU WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW XUEDQSROOXWLRQORDGVDUHOLQHDUO\UHODWHGWRXUEDQSRSXODWLRQ
JURZWK ZKLFK XQGHU WKH SUHVXPSWLRQ RI LQFUHDVLQJ LQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ HFRQRPLF JURZWK DQG
VWDQGDUGRIOLYLQJUHSUHVHQWVDQXQGHUHVWLPDWHRIIXWXUHORDG,QERWKFDVHVWKHUHVXOWVZRXOG
FKDQJHEXWVKRZWKHVDPHWUHQG
&KDSWHU
$WKLUGXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHDQGVFHQDULRDQDO\VLVLVIXUWKHUPRUHWKHIDFWRURI
ODQG UXQRII :H KDYH FRPSDUHG IRU WKLV UHDVRQ RXU UHVXOWV ZLWK DQ DOWHUQDWLYH DSSURDFK WR
FDOFXODWHULYHUH[SRUWRIGLVVROYHGQLWURJHQEDVHGRQDUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLVE\&DUDFRDQG&ROH
7KH ODWWHU DQDO\VHG QLWUDWH H[SRUW E\ ULYHUV ZRUOGZLGH LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH KXPDQ
DFWLYLWLHVLQWKHZDWHUVKHGV7KHUHVXOWLQJUHODWLRQEHWZHHQULYHUQLWUDWHH[SRUWDQGSRSXODWLRQ
IHUWLOLVHUXVHDQGDWPRVSKHULFQLWURJHQGHSRVLWLRQIRUPVWKHEDVLVIRUDZRUOGZLGHPRGHORI
GLVVROYHGLQRUJDQLFQLWURJHQ',1H[SRUWE\ULYHUVWRFRDVWDOZDWHUVE\6HLW]LQJHUDQG.URH]H
(TXDWLRQ
(TXDWLRQ
H[S
1 ',1
H[S
u 1 12
u $ZV
H[S
1 12
$
(& ULY u : SV (& ZV u :DG$ : IHUW
>
@
>
$
u u ' SRS u I XUEDQ u V UXQRII
u :DG$ : IHUW
@
H[S
H[S
DQG 1 12
UHSUHVHQW ULYHU ',1 DQG QLWUDWH H[SRUW UHVSHFWLYHO\ NJ\ $ZV LV WKH
:KHUH 1 ',1
ZDWHUVKHGDUHDNP(&ULY DQG (&ZV UHSUHVHQW ULYHU DQG ZDWHUVKHG UHWHQWLRQ UHVSHFWLYHO\
IUDFWLRQ:SV:DG$DQG:IHUW$ UHSUHVHQW ZDWHUVKHG DYHUDJHG SROOXWLRQ ORDGV IURP SRLQW
VRXUFHV DWPRVSKHULF 12[ DQG V\QWKHWLF IHUWLOLVHU XVH UHVSHFWLYHO\ NJNP\ 'SRS LV WKH
ZDWHUVKHG DYHUDJH SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ NP IXUEDQ LV IUDFWLRQ XUEDQ SRSXODWLRQ DQG 6UXQRII
UHSUHVHQWVWRWDOZDWHUUXQRIIPP\
$OWKRXJK WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO ZDV QRW GHYHORSHG IRU VPDOO ZDWHUVKHGV ZH DSSOLHG WKLV
IRUPXOD WR WKH ZDWHUVKHGV GUDLQLQJ LQWR WKH (EULp ODJRRQ DV D FRPSDULVRQ WR WKH EDVHVFHQDULR'DWDRQSRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\DQGIUDFWLRQXUEDQLVWDNHQIURP7DEOH7KH1
GHSRVLWLRQRQODQGDQGIHUWLOLVHUXVHZDVWDNHQIURP6HLW]LQJHUDQG.URH]HDQG.URH]H
DQG 6HLW]LQJHU ZKR XVHG PRGHOOHG 1 GHSRVLWLRQ PDSV IRU WKH \HDU DQG PDGH DYDLODEOH E\ 'HQWHQHU SHUVRQDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DV UHSRUWHG LQ 6HLW]LQJHU DQG .URH]H
DQG IHUWLOLVHU GDWD EDVHG RQ )$2 GDWDEDVHV :DWHU UXQRII LV IURP WKH **+<'52
GDWDEDVHUHVSHFWLYHO\DVGHVFULEHGLQ6HLW]LQJHUDQG.URH]H,QSXWGDWDLVVXPPDULVHG
LQ 7DEOH 1RWH WKDW WKLV FRQFHUQV RQO\ GDWD UHODWLQJ WR ZDWHUVKHG UXQRII WKURXJK ULYHUV
ODQGUXQRIILQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHDVVHVVPHQWDQGH[FOXGHVWKHUHIRUHWKHXUEDQHIIOXHQWVRI
$ELGMDQ
• 7DEOH 3RSXODWLRQSURMHFWLRQVIRUWKH(EULpODJRRQFDWFKPHQWDUHDEDVHGRQ,3&&VFHQDULR
65(6%,3&&
<HDU
3RSXODWLRQ 3RSXODWLRQ
8UEDQ
'HQVLW\NP SRSXODWLRQ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
• 7DEOH ,QSXWGDWDXVHGIRUFDOFXODWLQJ',1ULYHUH[SRUWWRWKH(EULp/DJRRQXVLQJWKH
UHJUHVVLRQPRGHO
'SRS
<HDU
IXUEDQ
:DG$
:IHUW$
6UXQRII
NJ1NP NJ1NP PP\
QUNP )UDFWLRQ
%DVHGRQWKHUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOULYHU',1H[SRUWWRWKH(EULp/DJRRQLVHVWLPDWHGWRLQFUHDVH
IURP NW LQ WR NW LQ )LJXUH 7KH LQFUHDVH LV ODUJHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK
LQFUHDVHG SRSXODWLRQ QXPEHUV ZKLFK LQ WXUQ LQFUHDVH WKH XVH RI IHUWLOLVHUV XVHG DQG
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ 7KLV UHVXOW LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH ILQGLQJV IURP WKH QXWULHQW EDODQFH
DVVHVVPHQW7KHFDOFXODWHG',1H[SRUWUDWHVIURPULYHUVDUHDERXW±RIWKHWRWDO1
LQSXWV IURP ODQG UXQRII WR WKH ODJRRQ DFFRUGLQJ WR RXU QXWULHQW EDODQFH DVVHVVPHQW )LJXUH
7KLVLVKLJKHUWKDQPRVWOLWHUDWXUHHVWLPDWHVZKLFKVHHPWRLQGLFDWHWKDWDWOHDVWKDOIRI
ULYHU GLVVROYHG QLWURJHQ PD\ EH RUJDQLF DQG WKDW LQ WURSLFDO ULYHUV RUJDQLF 1 XVXDOO\ KDV D
ODUJHUVKDUHLQWRWDOGLVVROYHGQLWURJHQLQULYHUVWKDQLQWHPSHUDWHULYHUVHJ0H\EHFN
2QWKHRWKHUKDQGUHODWLYHO\SROOXWHGV\VWHPVDUHNQRZQWRKDYHUHODWLYHO\KLJK',1WRWDO1
UDWLRV7DNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHUHODWLYHO\ODUJHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHHVWLPDWHVSUHVHQWHGKHUHZH
PD\FRQFOXGHWKDWWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHWZRDSSURDFKHVDUHFRQVLVWHQWDOWKRXJKWKHUHVXOWVVHHPWR
LPSO\HLWKHUDQRYHUHVWLPDWLRQE\WKHUHJUHVVLRQPRGHORUDQXQGHUHVWLPDWLRQE\WKHQXWULHQW
EDODQFHPRGHO
1ORDGIURPULYHUVW\
5HJUHVVLRQPRGHO',1
1EDODQFH71
<HDU
• )LJXUH &DOFXODWHG1ORDGWRWKH(EULp/DJRRQDFRPSDULVRQRIWKHUHJUHVVLRQPRGHO
(TXDWLRQSDJHZLWKWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFH(TXDWLRQSDJHPRGHO
&KDSWHU
7KHUHJUHVVLRQPRGHODOORZVXVWRDQDO\VHRXUHDUOLHUSROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQVFHQDULRUHVXOWVLQ
VRPHZKDWPRUHGHWDLOSDUWLFXODUO\DVLWFRQFHUQVWKHIDFWRURIODQGUXQRII5HVXOWVVKRZWKDW
IHUWLOLVHU1KDVDODUJHUVKDUHLQULYHULQH',1H[SRUWUDWHVWKDQ1IURPVHZDJHRUDWPRVSKHULF
1 GHSRVLWLRQ 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW UHGXFLQJ ',1 LQSXWV E\ ULYHUV WR WKH (EULp ODJRRQ FDQ EH
DFKLHYHGPRVWHIIHFWLYHO\E\DUHGXFWLRQLQIHUWLOLVHUUXQRII
&RQFOXVLRQV
7KLVVWXG\KDVVKRZQLPSRUWDQWILQGLQJVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQRIWKH(EULpODJRRQ
V\VWHP)LUVWRIDOOGULYLQJIRUFHVDUHPDLQO\GRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDODFWLYLWLHVLQDQGDURXQG
WKH FLW\ RI $ELGMDQ DQG DJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLWLHV LQ WKH ZLGHU FDWFKPHQW DUHD (QYLURQPHQWDO
SUHVVXUHIURP$ELGMDQKDVDYHU\ORFDOLVHGHIIHFWRQWKHVWDWHRIWKHODJRRQDVDFRQVHTXHQFH
RI WKH KLJK ZDWHU H[FKDQJH UDWH ZLWK WKH RSHQ RFHDQ WKURXJK WKH 9ULGL &DQDO 'RPHVWLF
HIIOXHQWVPDNHXSDQHVWLPDWHGWZRWKLUGVRIWKHWRWDO%2'ORDGIURPGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDO
VRXUFHV ZKLOH RI WKH QXWULHQW ORDG LV IURP GRPHVWLF VRXUFHV 2XWVLGH RI WKH GLUHFW
LQIOXHQFH RI $ELGMDQ WKH QXWULHQW EXGJHW RI WKH ODJRRQ LV GLFWDWHG E\WKHLQIOX[RIQXWULHQWV
IURP WKH ULYHUV &RPRp 0p DQG $JQpE\ ZLWK QXWULHQW ODQG UXQRII ODUJHO\ RULJLQDWLQJ IURP
IHUWLOL]HUVEHLQJWKHNH\IDFWRU7RWDODQQXDO1ORDGVWRWKHODJRRQIRUDUHHVWLPDWHGDW
NW RI ZKLFK IURP XUEDQ VRXUFHV IURP ODQG UXQRII DQG IURP DWPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQ(VWLPDWHVIRU3DUHNWDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHFDOFXODWHGORDGV
IURPODQGUXQRIIDUHLQWKHORZHUUDQJHRIYDOXHVUHSRUWHGIRURWKHUV\VWHPVZKLOHYDOXHVIRU
GRPHVWLFHIIOXHQWVDUHRQWKHKLJKVLGH
7KH DQDO\VLV RI YDULRXV VFHQDULRV KDV VKRZQ WKDW DXWRQRPRXV JURZWK ZLWKRXW SROOXWLRQ
UHGXFWLRQ PHDVXUHV ZLOO UHVXOWV LQ D IROG LQFUHDVH LQ QXWULHQW ORDGV WR WKH ODJRRQ RYHU WKH
SHULRGSULPDULO\IURPGRPHVWLFDQGDJULFXOWXUDOVRXUFHV&RQVHTXHQWLDOLQFUHDVHLQ
QXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVZRXOGDSSUR[LPDWHO\EHòIROGZKLFKZRXOGHVFDODWHWRDGUDPDWLF
OHYHO RI HXWURSKLFDWLRQ IRU WKH FRPSOHWH V\VWHP 5HVSRQVHV DQG DFWLRQV DLPHG DW QRQSRLQW
VRXUFHSROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQZRXOGEHPRVWHIIHFWLYH3ROLFLHVDLPHGDWUHGXFLQJWKHSRLQWVRXUFH
SUHVVXUHV IURP $ELGMDQ ZRXOG UHVXOW LQ LPSURYHG FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH FHQWUDO VHJPHQW RI WKH
ODJRRQVHJPHQW,,,EXWZRXOGQRWVXEVWDQWLDOO\LPSURYHWKHFRQGLWLRQVLQWKHRWKHUVHJPHQWV
RIWKHODJRRQ
2XU DQDO\VLV RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH UHVXOWV RI WKLV UHVHDUFK VKRZV WKDW UHVXOWV DUH UHODWLYHO\
UHOLDEOH IRU WKH FHQWUDO SDUW RI WKH ODJRRQ EXW OHVV VR IRU WKH FRQWLQHQWDO SDUWV RI WKH ODJRRQ
VHJPHQWV , 9, 9 DQG OHVV IRU ,9 $ FRPSDULVRQ RI RXU PRGHO UHVXOWV ZLWK DQ DOWHUQDWLYH
DSSURDFKVXSSRUWVWKHVXJJHVWLRQWKDWWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWDUHVXIILFLHQWO\MXVWLILHGWR
VXSSRUW SROLF\OHYHO FRQFOXVLRQV 7KH VWUHQJWK RI WKH DSSURDFK WDNHQ LQ RXU UHVHDUFK LV D
FRPELQDWLRQRIPHWKRGRORJLHVWKDWDOORZVFURVVFKHFNLQJDQGYDOLGDWLRQRIUHVXOWVZKLFKKDV
DOORZHGWRGUDZJHQHULFEXWUHOLDEOHFRQFOXVLRQVRQWKHEDVLVRIOLPLWHGGDWD
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
)LQDO$QDO\VLVRIUHVXOWV
7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQVGLVFXVVDQGDQDO\VHWKHUHVXOWVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQVDQG7KH
DQDO\VLVLQFOXGHVLDQRYHUYLHZRIFDXVHHIIHFWUHODWHGWRWKHZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPRQWKH
EDVLV RI WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN LL D SHUVSHFWLYH RI IXWXUH GHYHORSPHQWV ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH
SROOXWLRQ RI WKH ODNH XQGHU D µGRQRWKLQJ¶ VFHQDULR DQG LLL WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI SRVVLEOH
UHVSRQVHVWUDWHJLHV
&DXVHVDQGHIIHFWVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQ
7KH SXEOLFDWLRQV SUHVHQWHG LQ VHFWLRQV 6FKHUHQ HW DO D DQG 6FKHUHQ HW DO
EDVVHVVWKHVWDWHRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDLWVFDXVHVGULYLQJ
IRUFHV DQG SUHVVXUHV DQG LPSDFWV 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKLV DVVHVVPHQW DUH VXPPDUL]HG LQ )LJXUH
ZKLFKVKRZVWKHLQWULFDWHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKHGULYLQJIRUFHVSUHVVXUHVVWDWHDQG
LPSDFWVDVSHFWVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN7KHLQGLYLGXDOHOHPHQWVRIWKHFDXVHHIIHFWFKDLQ
DUHGLVFXVVHGEHORZEDVHGXSRQWKHHDUOLHUSUHVHQWHGSXEOLFDWLRQV
'ULYLQJIRUFHV
7KH PDLQ GULYLQJ IRUFHV EHKLQG WKH ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ SUREOHP DUH UHODWHG WR WKH GHPRJUDSKLF
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH UHJLRQ LQGXVWULDO GHYHORSPHQW WKH H[SORLWDWLRQ RI PLQHUDO UHVRXUFHV
DJULFXOWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW DQG IRUHVWU\ $SDUW IURP WKHVH DQWKURSRJHQLF GULYLQJ IRUFHV
PRUHRYHU WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DTXDWLF YHJHWDWLRQ LQ WKH ODJRRQV DQG HVWXDULHV RI WKH ZDWHU
V\VWHPKDVFKDQJHGWKHQDWXUDOFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHP(DFKRIWKHEHIRUHPHQWLRQHG
GULYLQJIRUFHVLVEULHIO\GLVFXVVHGEHORZ
'HPRJUDSKLFV'HULYLQJPDLQO\IURPWKHKLVWRU\RIWKHUHJLRQ
VHDUO\FRQWDFWZLWK(XURSHDQ
VHDIDUHUVDQGFRORQLVDWLRQHDUO\µPRGHUQ¶KXPDQVHWWOHPHQWDQGHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWLQ
$IULFDKDVSULPDULO\WDNHQSODFHLQWKHFRDVWDO]RQH$VDFRQVHTXHQFHQHDUO\DOOPDMRUFLWLHV
KDUERXUV DLUSRUWV LQGXVWULHV H[WHQVLYH DJULFXOWXUDO SODQWDWLRQV DQG RWKHU VRFLRHFRQRPLF
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ DUH ORFDWHG LQ WKH FRDVWDO ]RQH 0RUHRYHU WKH FRDVWDO ]RQH
KDUERXUV LPSRUWDQW QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV LQFOXGLQJ ILVK DQG UHODWLYHO\ IHUWLOH VRLOV ZLWK D ULFK
YHJHWDWLRQ ZKLFK DWWUDFW SHRSOH IURP WKH PXFK GU\HU DQG UHVRXUFH SRRUHU LQODQGV 7KHVH
DVSHFWVWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHSUHYDLOLQJSRRUOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQGWUDGLWLRQDOYDOXHVVXSSRUWLQJ
ODUJHKRXVHKROGVL]HDUHWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWGULYLQJIRUFHVEHKLQGWKHUDSLGSRSXODWLRQJURZWK
LQ WKH FRDVWDO ]RQH RI WKH *2* &RQVHTXHQWO\ SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK LQ WKH FRDVWDO UHJLRQ LV
UHODWLYHO\KLJKLQSDUWLFXODUDURXQGWKHODUJHFRDVWDOXUEDQFHQWUHVZKLFKQRZDGD\VSURYLGH
VKHOWHUIRUQHDUO\RIWKHPLOOLRQLQKDELWDQWVLQWKHVL[FRXQWULHVERUGHULQJWKH*2*
,QGXVWU\ 0RVW RI WKH FLWLHV LQ WKH FRDVWDO ]RQH DUH LPSRUWDQW LQGXVWULDO DQG FRPPHUFLDO
FHQWUHV 0DMRU FRDVWDO KDUERXUV DUHORFDWHGQHDUWKHVKRUHOLQHLQDOORIWKHSURMHFWFRXQWULHV
$ELGMDQDQG6DQ3HGURLQ,YRU\&RDVW7HPDDQG7DNRUDGLLQ*KDQD/RPpLQ7RJR&RWRQRX
LQ%HQLQ/DJRV:DUUL3RUW+DUFRXUWDQG&DODEDULQ1LJHULDDQG'RXDOD/LPEpDQG.ULELLQ
&DPHURRQ7KHPDMRULW\RILQGXVWULHVKDVVHWWOHGRQRUQHDUWKHFRDVW$ELGMDQIRUH[DPSOH
KRVWV RI DOO LQGXVWULDO HQWHUSULVHV LQ ,YRU\ &RDVW DFFRXQWLQJ IRU RI WKH FRXQWU\¶V
LQGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQ ,Q 1LJHULD WKH JUHDWHU /DJRV UHJLRQ DORQH KRVWV RI LQGXVWULDO
SURGXFWLRQQDWLRQZLGH7KHUDWHVDUHVLPLODUIRU&DPHURRQ7RJR%HQLQ
DQG*KDQD
&KDSWHU
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
,QYDVLRQDQGVSUHDGLQJRIDTXDWLF
YHJHWDWLRQRQZDWHUVXUIDFH
([SORLWDWLRQRIPLQHUDOUHVRXUFHV
)RUHVWH[SORLWDWLRQIRUILUHZRRGDQG
H[SRUWOHDGLQJWRGHIRUHVWDWLRQ
,QFUHDVHGODQGFXOWLYDWLRQDQG
LQWHQVLILHGDJULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHV
7UDGLWLRQDOLQHIILFLHQWIDUPLQJ
WHFKQLTXHVDQGPHDQVRIOLYLQJ
/DUJHVFDOHDJULFXOWXUDOGHYHORSPHQW
VWHPPLQJIURPFRORQLDOWLPHV
&RPEXVWLRQIURPWUDIILFLQGXVWU\
SRZHUSODQWVDQGKRXVHKROGV
5DSLGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQDQGHFRQRPLF
GHYHORSPHQWRIWKHFRDVWDO]RQH
µ0RYHWRWKHFLWLHV¶UHVXOWLQJLQKLJK
XUEDQJURZWKUDWH!
5DSLGSRSXODWLRQJURZWK“
3RRUOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQGWUDGLWLRQDO
YDOXHVVXSSRUWODUJHKRXVHKROGVL]H
6RFLRHFRQRPLFUHVRXUFHVDQG
EHQHILWVRIWKHFRDVWDO]RQH
&RORQLDOKLVWRU\RIFRDVWDO]RQH
GHYHORSPHQW
'ULYLQJ)RUFHV
5HGXFHGOLJKWSHQHWUDWLRQDQGPL[LQJ
GXHWRDTXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQRQVXUIDFH
'HFRPSRVLWLRQRISODQWVUHVXOWLQJLQ
QDWXUDORUJDQLFPDWHULDOORDG
2LOVSLOOVIURPWKHRLOH[SORLWDWLRQLQGXVWU\
,QFUHDVHGVRLOHURVLRQ
,QFUHDVHGIHUWLOL]HUXVHDQGPDQXUH
SURGXFWLRQ
,QFUHDVHGQXWULHQWODQGUXQRIIDQG
OHDFKLQJ
,QFUHDVHG1HPLVVLRQVDQGGXVW
SDUWLFXODWH1DQG3IURPODQG
DQGOHDFKLQJ
“RI1DQG3IURPODQGUXQRII
DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
“RI1DQG3ORDGVIURP
1RQSRLQWVRXUFHV
“RI1DQG3ORDGVIURP
GRPHVWLFVRXUFHV,QGXVWU\LVPXFK
OHVVLPSRUWDQW
,QFUHDVLQJ%2'ORDGVIURPGRPHVWLF
DQGLQGXVWULDOVRXUFHVHTXDOO\
LPSRUWDQWPDLQO\IURPXUEDQFHQWHUV
3RLQWVRXUFHV
3UHVVXUHV
'DPDJHWRH[LVWLQJDQGFUHDWLRQRI
QHZKDELWDWV
&KDQJHVLQHFRV\VWHPFRPSRVLWLRQ
&KDQJHVLQWKHQXWULHQWF\FOH
,QFUHDVLQJ1DQG3FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
&KDQJHVLQDOJDOSRSXODWLRQ
,QWHQVLILHGDOJDOJURZWKUHVXOWLQJLQ
HXWURSKLFDWLRQ
'HFUHDVHGHFRV\VWHPKHDOWKWR
VXVWDLQOLYLQJUHVRXUFHV
'HFUHDVHGWUDQVSDUHQF\RIZDWHUGXH
WRDOJDOJURZWKDQGK\DFLQWKPDWV
,QFUHDVHGR[\JHQFRQVXPSWLRQGXH
WRPLQHUDOL]DWLRQDQGGHFRPSRVLWLRQ
%UHHGLQJJURXQGIRUEDFWHULDDQG
SDUDVLWHV
2[\JHQGHSOHWLRQ
+6IRUPDWLRQ
0DVVLYHILVKNLOOVGXULQJVHDVRQDO
XSZHOOLQJV
6WDWH
•
)LJXUH6FKHPDWLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRI
WKH*2*HQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQFDXVH
HIIHFWFKDLQ
/RVVRIELRGLYHUVLW\YDOXH
/RVVRIZDWHUSURYLVLRQYDOXH
+HDOWKLPSDFWVZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHV
VXFKDVGLDUUKHDELOKDU]LDVW\SKRLG
G\VHQWHU\DQGFKROHUD
/RVVRIUHFUHDWLRQDODQGWRXULVP
YDOXH
/RVVRIDPHQLW\VWHQFKDQGYLVXDO
LPSDFWV
'HFUHDVLQJWUDGLWLRQDOILVKUHVRXUFHV
,PSDFW
,QGXVWU\DFFRXQWVIRUDSSUR[LPDWHO\RI*'3LQWKHUHJLRQEXWHFRQRP\LVVXEVWDQWLDOO\
PRUH LQGXVWU\ GULYHQ LQ 1LJHULD VHH 7DEOH SDJH ZKHUH RLO H[SORLWDWLRQ IRUPV WKH
FRUHRIWKHFRXQWU\
VHFRQRP\7KHPDLQLQGXVWULDOVHFWRUVLQWKHSURMHFWFRXQWULHVDUHHLWKHU
UHODWHG WR EDVLF SURGXFWV IRU WKH ORFDO SRSXODWLRQ DJURIRRG SURFHVVLQJ EHYHUDJH JDUPHQW
WH[WLOHDQGOHDWKHULQGXVWULHVVRDSDQGGHWHUJHQWPDQXIDFWXULQJZRRGSURFHVVLQJDQGFHPHQW
SURGXFWLRQRUWRWKHSURFHVVLQJRIUDZPDWHULDOVH[SORLWHGLQWKHUHJLRQSHWUROHXPUHILQLQJLQ
1LJHULD &DPHURRQ DQG WR D OHVVHU H[WHQW LQ ,YRU\ &RDVW DQG *KDQD DOXPLQLXP LQ *KDQD
&DPHURRQ DQG 1LJHULD LURQ DQG VWHHO LQ 1LJHULD DQG ,YRU\ &RDVW DQG SKRVSKDWH LQ 7RJR
)HUWLOL]HUDQGSHVWLFLGHSODQWVSKDUPDFHXWLFDOLQGXVWU\SDSHUSXOSLQGXVWU\DQGSODVWLFSURGXFW
PDQXIDFWXUHUVH[LVWLQVRPHRIWKHFRXQWULHV
([SORLWDWLRQRI0LQHUDO5HVRXUFHV0LQHUDOUHVRXUFHVH[SORLWDWLRQLQWKHFRDVWDOUHJLRQLV
SUDFWLFHGLQPRVWRIWKHFRXQWULHV*ROGPLQLQJWDNHVSODFHLQ,YRU\&RDVWQHDU$ERLVVR7KH
DYDLODELOLW\RIRWKHUPLQHUDOVIRUH[SORLWDWLRQVXFKDVWLWDQLXPLQ*KDQDLURQRUHLQ&DPHURRQ
DQGOLPHVWRQHLQVHYHUDORIWKHFRXQWULHVKDVEHHQGHWHUPLQHGIRUIXWXUHH[SORLWDWLRQ2LODQG
JDVH[SORUDWLRQLQWKHUHJLRQLVDVSHFLDOFDVH)URPDQLQLWLDOEDUUHOVSHUGD\%3'LQ
FUXGH RLO SURGXFWLRQ LQ 1LJHULD URVH WR D KHLJKW RI PLOOLRQ %3' LQ DQG
FXUUHQWO\ DYHUDJHV DURXQG PLOOLRQ %3' 7RGD\ WKH LQGXVWU\ DFFRXQWV IRU RYHU RI
1LJHULDQ
V DQQXDO H[SRUW 1LJHULD DQG HVSHFLDOO\ WKH 1LJHU'HOWDKRVWVPRVWRLOH[SORUDWLRQ
DQGH[SORLWDWLRQDFWLYLWLHVEXWWRDOHVVHUH[WHQWH[SORLWDWLRQWDNHVSODFHLQ%HQLQ&DPHURRQ
,YRU\&RDVWDQG*KDQD1HZUHVHUYHVDUHFRQWLQXRXVO\EHLQJGLVFRYHUHGLQFOXGLQJPRUHDQG
PRUHRIIVKRUHZHOOV
$JULFXOWXUH $SDUW IURP 1LJHULD DJULFXOWXUH LV WKH GRPLQDQW HFRQRPLF DFWLYLW\ LQ WKH
FRXQWULHVLQWHUPVRIFRQWULEXWLRQWR*'3VHH7DEOHSDJH,QWHUPVRIPDQSRZHU
LQYROYHG LQ DJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLW\ KRZHYHU LW LV E\ IDU WKH ODUJHVW LQ DOO FRXQWULHV (VSHFLDOO\
DORQJWKHFRDVWOLQHDQGWKHIHUWLOHDUHDVDURXQGULYHUVDQGZHWODQGVFXOWLYDWLRQRIERWKIRRG
FURSVDQGFDVKFURSVLVZLGHVSUHDG7KHPDMRUIRRGFURSVDUHPDL]HSODQWDLQFDVVDYDULFH
DQG YHJHWDEOHV 0DMRU FDVK FURSV DUH RLO SDOP UXEEHU FRWWRQ SLQHDSSOHV EDQDQDV DQG
FRFRQXW 6OLJKWO\ LQODQG FDFDR DQG FRIIHH DUH FXOWLYDWHG ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH ODUJHVFDOH
FXOWLYDWLRQRIFDVKFURSVIRUH[SRUWWRWKH:HVWHUQ:RUOGKDVVWURQJO\GHYHORSHGDVDUHVXOWRI
FRORQLDOLQIOXHQFHV8QGHU)UHQFKPDQDJHPHQW,YRU\&RDVWIRUH[DPSOHKDVKLVWRULFDOO\EHHQ
WKHZRUOG¶VODUJHVWSURGXFHURIFDFDRDQGWKHWKLUGODUJHVWLQFRIIHH
)RUHVWU\8QGHUSUHVVXUHIURPWKHUDSLGO\H[SDQGLQJSRSXODWLRQOLWWOHRIWKHRULJLQDOFRDVWDO
IRUHVWVQRZUHPDLQ)RUGHFDGHVWKHIRUHVWVKDYHEHHQH[SORLWHGIRUILUHZRRGDQGFRQVWUXFWLRQ
PDWHULDOVEXWDOVRIRUWKHOXFUDWLYHFRPPHUFLDOH[SRUWWRLQGXVWULDOLVHGFRXQWULHV0DQ\IRUHVWV
KDYHEHHQWXUQHGLQWRDJULFXOWXUDOODQGV$OWKRXJKODUJHSDUWVRIWKHFRDVWOLQHIRUHVWVKDYHEHHQ
GHSULYHG RI DQ\ FRPPHUFLDOO\ YDOXDEOH ZRRG WKH PDMRULW\ RI KRXVHKROGV VWLOO GHSHQGV RQ
FDUERQDQGIUHVKILUHZRRGIRUWKHLUFRRNLQJSXWWLQJWKHOLWWOHUHPDLQLQJIRUHVWVXQGHULPPHQVH
SUHVVXUH,Q&DPHURRQZKHUHPXFKRIWKHIRUHVWUHPDLQVH[SRUWRIWLPEHUUHPDLQVDPDMRU
FRQWULEXWRUWRWKHHFRQRP\DFFRXQWLQJIRUDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIWRWDOH[SRUW
&KDSWHU
$TXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQ±)ORDWLQJDTXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQFRYHUVODUJHSDUWVRIWKHODJRRQVDQGED\VRI
WKH*2*ZDWHUV\VWHP$FFRUGLQJWR.RXDVVLHWDOILUVWUHFRJQLWLRQRIWKHHFRORJLFDO
HIIHFWV RI VXFK YHJHWDWLRQ GDWHV IURP WKH V DW D WLPH ZKHQ VXFK YHJHWDWLRQ ZDV VWLOO
GRPLQDWHGE\DVLQJOHVSHFLHV3LVWLDVWUDWLRWHV6LQFHWKHQKRZHYHUQHZVSHFLHVKDYHHQWHUHG
WKH FRDVWDO ZDWHU V\VWHP LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH ODJRRQV WKURXJK WKH ULYHUV LQFOXGLQJ QRQ
LQGLJHQRXVVSHFLHVWKDWZHUHRULJLQDOO\LQWURGXFHGIURP6RXWK$PHULFD6DOYLQLD0ROHVWDDQG
(LFKRUQLDFUDVLSHV7KHODWWHUVSHFLHVFRPPRQO\NQRZQDVZDWHUK\DFLQWKSUHVHQWO\FRYHUV
ODUJHSDUWVRIWKHODJRRQVLQSDUWLFXODULQ,YRU\&RDVW
3UHVVXUHV
7KH LQFUHDVHG SROOXWLRQ ORDGV IURP GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO SRLQW VRXUFHV KDV LQFUHDVHG
SUHVVXUHVRQWKHFRDVWDOZDWHUV\VWHPLQSDUWLFXODUWKHFRDVWDOODJRRQV\VWHPVDURXQGZKLFK
PRVW XUEDQ FHQWUHV KDYH GHYHORSHG 2YHU RI LQGXVWULDO DQG GRPHVWLF HIIOXHQWV UHPDLQ
XQWUHDWHG ,QGXVWU\ DQG GRPHVWLF ZDVWHZDWHU DFFRXQW IRU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ DQ HTXDO VKDUH RI
%2' ORDGV LQWR WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP ZKLFK WRWDO DW DSSUR[LPDWHO\ ELOOLRQ W\ 'RPHVWLF
ZDVWHZDWHU PRUHRYHU DFFRXQWV IRU D FRQVLGHUDEOH QXWULHQW ORDG WR WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP 2Q WKH
EDVLVRIWKH(EULpODJRRQFDVHVHFWLRQWKLVFRQWULEXWLRQLVHVWLPDWHGDWDSSUR[LPDWHO\
RIWRWDO1DQG3ORDGVWRWKHFRDVWDOZDWHUV\VWHP
([WUDFWLRQRIVDQGJUDYHOURFNVDQGRWKHUPDWHULDOVIRUFRQVWUXFWLRQZLGHO\H[DFHUEDWHVODQG
DQG FRDVWDO HURVLRQ )RU H[DPSOH LQ 7RJR GUDPDWLF OHYHOV RI ODQG HURVLRQ UHVXOW IURP WKH
H[WUDFWLRQ RI VRLO IRU WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI SKRVSKDWH 7KH UHVLGXHV RI WKLV H[WUDFWLRQ DUH
IXUWKHUPRUH GLVSRVHG RI LQ FRDVWDO DQG ODJRRQ ZDWHUV 7KH HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ HIIHFWV
IURP RLO H[SORLWDWLRQ DUH UHODWHG WR H[SORUDWLRQ DQG H[SORLWDWLRQ GULOOLQJ DFWLYLWLHV SLSHOLQH
RSHUDWLRQVPDULQHDQGWHUPLQDORSHUDWLRQVDQGWKHSHWUROHXPUHILQLQJSURFHVV%ORZRXWVDQG
RLO VSLOOV KDYH FDXVHG GLVDVWURXV FLUFXPVWDQFHV $FFRUGLQJ WR RIILFLDO HVWLPDWHV IURP WKH
1DWLRQDO1LJHULDQ3HWUROHXP&RPSDQ\LQ1LJHULDDSSUR[LPDWHO\PRIRLOLVVSLOOHGLQ
DERXWVHSDUDWHDFFLGHQWVDQQXDOO\$ZREDMR
3UHVVXUHIURPWKHLQWHQVLYHDJULFXOWXUDODFWLYLWLHVLVODUJH0RVWRIWKHFDVKFURSVFXOWLYDWHGLQ
WKHFRDVWDOUHJLRQGRQRWUHTXLUHH[WHQVLYHXVHRISHVWLFLGHV+RZHYHUWKHUHLVFRQFHUQRYHU
WKHIDFWWKDWWKHXVHRILQWHUQDWLRQDOO\EDQQHGDJURFKHPLFDOVVXFKDV''7DOGULQDQGOLQGDQHLV
ZLGHO\ SUDFWLVHG 0RUHRYHU WKH LQFUHDVLQJ ODQG FXOWLYDWLRQ DQG H[WHQVLYH DQG XQVXVWDLQDEOH
H[SORLWDWLRQRIVRLOVFDXVHVHURVLRQDQGLQFUHDVHGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJRIQXWULHQWVWRVXUIDFH
ZDWHUV$SDUWIURPWKHGLUHFWFRQVHTXHQFHVRIODQGFXOWLYDWLRQWRELRGLYHUVLW\LHGDPDJHWR
IORUD IDXQD DQG FULWLFDO KDELWDWV VXFK DV PDQJURYH IRUHVWV WKH GHVWUXFWLRQ RI WKH RQFH YDVW
IRUHVW UHVHUYHV KDV LQFUHDVHG VRLO HURVLRQ DQG WKHUHZLWK UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ RI QXWULHQWV WR
VXUIDFHZDWHUV$SSUR[LPDWHO\KDOIRIWKHWRWDOQXWULHQWVORDGVLQWRFRDVWDOZDWHUV1DQG3KDV
EHHQHVWLPDWHGWRRULJLQDWHIURPODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
(PLVVLRQVIURPWUDIILFLQGXVWU\SRZHUSODQWVDQGGRPHVWLFELRPDVVEXUQLQJKDYHPRUHRYHU
VXEVWDQWLDOO\ LQFUHDVHG 7RJHWKHU ZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ GXVW IURP VRLO HURVLRQ WKLV KDV OHDG WR
LQFUHDVHGQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQUDLQZDWHU2QWKHEDVLVRIWKH(EULpODJRRQFDVHVHFWLRQ
WKHQXWULHQWORDGIURPDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQLVHVWLPDWHGDWDURXQGRIWKHWRWDO1DQG
3ORDGWRWKHVXUIDFHZDWHUV\VWHP)LQDOO\WKHGHDWKDQGVXEVHTXHQWGHFRPSRVLWLRQRIIORDWLQJ
DTXDWLF YHJHWDWLRQ LQFUHDVHV RUJDQLF PDWWHU ORDGV WR WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP DGGLQJ WR WKH DOUHDG\
ODUJH%2'ORDGIURPGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOVRXUFHV7KHWKLFNµPDWV¶IRUPHGE\YHJHWDWLRQ
IORDWLQJ RQ WKH ZDWHU VXUIDFH PRUHRYHU UHGXFHV OLJKW SHQHWUDWLRQ DQG PL[LQJ HIIHFWV LQ WKH
ZDWHUFROXPQ
6WDWH
7KH HIIHFWV RI WKH EHIRUHPHQWLRQHG HQYLURQPHQWDO SUHVVXUHV LPSDFW WKH VWDWH RI WKH ZDWHU
V\VWHPLQDQXPEHURIZD\V)LUVWRIDOOSUHVVXUHVIURPSRLQWDQGQRQSRLQWVRXUFHVUHVXOWLQ
LQFUHDVHGQXWULHQWDQG%2'FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHZDWHUV\VWHP6HFRQGO\LQFUHDVHGQXWULHQW
ORDGVVWLPXODWHSK\WRSODQNWRQSURGXFWLYLW\OHDGLQJWRHXWURSKLFDWLRQ7KHH[WHQWRIWKHHIIHFWV
RI WKHVH SUHVVXUHV GLIIHUV VWURQJO\ EHWZHHQ WKH LQVKRUH DQG WKH RIIVKRUH DUHDV RI WKH FRDVWDO
ZDWHU V\VWHP 0RVW VWURQJO\ WKH\ DUH IHOW LQ WKH VHPLHQFORVHG FRDVWDO ODJRRQV V\VWHPV DQG
HVWXDULHV7KLVLVEHFDXVHRIWKHLQWUXVLRQRIZDWHUVWKURXJKULYHUVVXUIDFHUXQRIILQIORZVRI
GRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOHIIOXHQWVGLUHFWO\LQWRWKHVHLQVKRUHDUHDVDVZHOODVGXHWRVWURQJHU
PL[LQJHIIHFWVDWVKDOORZGHSWKV
7KH XUEDQ ODJRRQ V\VWHPV VKRZ DGYDQFHG OHYHOV RI RUJDQLF SROOXWLRQ UHVXOWLQJ LQ
HXWURSKLFDWLRQDQGDVUHSRUWHGIRUWKH.RUOHDQG&KHPX,,ODJRRQVLQ*KDQDDQGIRUVHYHUDORI
WKH ED\V RI WKH (EULp ODJRRQ LQ ,YRU\ &RDVW LQ QHDU WRWDO R[\JHQ GHSOHWLRQ $FTXDK $ZRVLND DQG ,EH %LQH\ 'XIRXU HW DO DQG *RUGRQ *XLUDO
*XLUDO HW DO 7KH HIIHFWV RI KLJK ORFDOL]HG %2' ORDGV DQG D KLJK OHYHO RI
HXWURSKLFDWLRQ ZRUN LQ D FXPXODWLYH PDQQHU %2' ZDVWH UHVXOWV LQ D KLJK R[\JHQ GHPDQG
RIWHQYHU\ORFDOL]HGDWLWVSRLQWVRIGLVFKDUJH'HDWKDQGVXEVHTXHQWVHGLPHQWDWLRQRIDOJDH
PRUHRYHU OHDGV WR R[\JHQGHPDQGLQJ PLQHUDOL]DWLRQ SURFHVVHV 7KHVH SURFHVVHV DUH IXUWKHU
VWUHQJWKHQHG E\ GHFRPSRVLQJ IORDWLQJ DTXDWLF YHJHWDWLRQ 7KH UHGXFHG OLJKW SHQHWUDWLRQ DQG
PL[LQJ HIIHFWV DV D UHVXOW RI WKLV YHJHWDWLRQ PRUHRYHU DIIHFWV QXWULHQW G\QDPLFV DQG FUHDWHV
QHZKDELWDWVZKLFKOHDGWRFKDQJHVLQHFRV\VWHPFRPSRVLWLRQ
$SDUW IURP +6 IRUPDWLRQ WKH µURWWHQ HJJV¶ VPHOO WKH ORDG RI RUJDQLF PDWHULDO FUHDWHV D
VXLWDEOHKDELWDWIRUEDFWHULDDQGSDUDVLWHGHYHORSPHQWDQGWKHUHZLWKZDWHUERUQHDQGLQVHFW
ERUQH GLVHDVH YHFWRUV $GYDQFHG OHYHOV RI SROOXWDQWV DQG PLFURELDO FRQWDPLQDQWV UHODWHG WR
ZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHVKDYHEHHQIRXQGLQDOORIWKHFRDVWDOODJRRQV\VWHPVQHDUWKHODUJHXUEDQ
FHQWUHVRIWKHUHJLRQ$FTXDKDE$MDRDQG$QXULJZR'XIRXUHWDO
.RXDVVLHWDO0pWRQJRHWDO3DJqV3DJqVDQG&LWHDX0RUHRYHUDV
D UHVXOW RI PL[LQJ GXULQJ XSZHOOLQJV WKH FRPSOHWH ZDWHU FROXPQ PD\ EH WHPSRUDULO\ GH
R[\JHQLVHGUHVXOWLQJLQILVKPRUWDOLW\$OEDUHWDQG&KDUOHV'RPLTXH
&KDSWHU
(OHYDWHG OHYHOV RI KHDY\ PHWDO DQG RUJDQRFKORULQH UHODWHG WR WKH GLVSRVDO RI XQWUHDWHG
LQGXVWULDODQGGRPHVWLFHIIOXHQWVDVZHOODVWRRLOVVSLOOVKDYHEHHQGHWHUPLQHGLQVHGLPHQWVRI
WKH FRDVWDO ZDWHUV DQG ODJRRQV +RZHYHU VWXGLHV RQ WKH OHYHOV RI KHDY\ PHWDOV DQG
K\GURFDUERQV LQ ILVK DQG VKHOOILVK KDYH UHYHDOHG WKDW WKH OHYHOV IRXQG LQ OLYLQJ UHVRXUFHV
H[SORLWHG IRU KXPDQ FRQVXPSWLRQ DUH JHQHUDOO\ VWLOO EHORZ WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRQVXPSWLRQ
VWDQGDUGVIRUILVKDQGILVKSURGXFWV7KHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIRLOVSLOOVKDVKRZHYHULQ
FDVHV EHHQ GHYDVWDWLQJ DQG LV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU PDVV ILVK PRUWDOLW\ DQG GHVWUXFWLRQ RI FULWLFDO
KDELWDWVVXFKDVPDQJURYHV2GXDQG,PHYERUH3RZHOO6DHQJHUHWDO
,PSDFWV
7KHHYHQWXDOLPSDFWVRIWKHVHSURFHVVHVWRVRFLHW\LQFOXGHILUVWRIDOOGHFUHDVHGILVKUHVRXUFHV
DQGFKDQJHVLQILVKVWRFNFRPSRVLWLRQDQGGLVWULEXWLRQ7KHLPSDFWVDUHPRVWQRWDEOHLQWKH
FRDVWDOODJRRQV\VWHPVDQGHVWXDULHVZKLFKDUHWKHDUHDVPRVWDIIHFWHGE\SROOXWLRQDQGRWKHU
FKDQJHV HJ ZDWHU K\DFLQWK DQG ZKLFK WUDGLWLRQDOO\ FRQVWLWXWH LPSRUWDQW ILVK KDELWDWV
)XUWKHUPRUH VWHQFK DV D UHVXOW RI +6 IRUPDWLRQ DQG ORVV RI YLVXDO DPHQLW\ GXH WR µGLUW\
ZDWHU¶DQGGHDGILVKUHGXFHVWKHWUDGLWLRQDOO\KLJKUHFUHDWLRQDODQGWRXULVPYDOXHRIWKHODNH
7KH ZDWHUV LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH VKRUHOLQHV DQG ED\V SURYLGH PRUHRYHU DQ LQFUHDVLQJO\ VXLWDEOH
KDELWDW IRU EDFWHULDO DQG SDUDVLWLF FRPPXQLWLHV LQFOXGLQJ ZDWHUERUQH DQG LQVHFW GLVHDVH
YHFWRUVVXFKDVGLDUUKRHDELOKDU]LDVW\SKRLGG\VHQWHU\DQGFKROHUD$GLQJUDDQG$UIL
'RVVR HW DO 'XFKDVVLQ HWDO,ZXML.RXDPpHWDO.RXDVVLHWDO
7KH RYHUDOO ZDWHU TXDOLW\ PDNHV LW XQVXLWDEOH IRU WKH SURYLVLRQ RI ZDWHU IRU
FRQVXPSWLRQ LUULJDWLRQ DQG LQGXVWULDO SURFHVVHV 0RUHRYHU WKHUH KDYH EHHQ VXEVWDQWLDO
LPSDFWV RQ PDULQH OLIH DQG WKH UHODWHG ELRGLYHUVLW\ YDOXH RI WKH *2*/0( $OEDUHW DQG
&KDUOHV 'RPLQLTXH 0pWRQJR DQG 6DQNDUp 0pWRQJR 0pWRQJR DQG
.RXDPHQDQ
$SHUVSHFWLYHRIWKHIXWXUHVWDWHRISROOXWLRQRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
6FHQDULRVRIIXWXUHGHYHORSPHQWVLQWKH*2*UHJLRQKDYHEHHQDVVHVVHGLQVHFWLRQIRUWKH
(EULp/DJRRQV\VWHP:LWKUHVSHFWWRSURMHFWLRQVRIIXWXUHSROOXWLRQORDGVWKHUHVXOWVRIWKLV
VFHQDULRDQDO\VLVPD\EHFRQVLGHUHGUHSUHVHQWDWLYHIRUWKHUHJLRQSULPDULO\RQWKHPHULWRIWKH
IDFWWKDWSRSXODWLRQJURZWKVWDWLVWLFVDUHVLPLODUWKURXJKRXWWKHVL[FRXQWULHV7KHUHVXOWVRIWKH
VFHQDULRDQDO\VLVLQGLFDWHWKDWGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDO%2'1DQG3ORDGVPD\LQFUHDVHE\DQ
HVWLPDWHGLQWKHSHULRGZKLOH1DQG3ORDGVIURPODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJ
PD\ LQFUHDVH E\ 7KH DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ RI QXWULHQWV LV H[SHFWHG WR LQFUHDVH E\
DSSUR[LPDWHO\ LQ WKH VDPH SHULRG )RU WKH PRUH XUEDQLVHG DUHDV RI WKH *2* V\VWHP
LQFOXGLQJ WKH PDLQ FRDVWDO ODJRRQV WKH UHODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH YDULRXV VRXUFHV RI
QXWULHQWVZRXOGEHDVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUHSDJH
7KHHIIHFWVIURPWKHLQFUHDVHGLQ%2'1DQG3ORDGVRQWKHZDWHUV\VWHPGLIIHUVIURPFDVHWR
FDVH$VGHPRQVWUDWHGLQVHFWLRQQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKH(EULpODJRRQDUHSURMHFWHG
WR LQFUHDVH E\ RYHU WKH SHULRG 7KH VLWXDWLRQ LV ZRUVW LQ WKH FRQWLQHQWDO
VHJPHQWV RI WKH ODJRRQ ZKHUH QXWULHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV DUH FDOFXODWHG WR LQFUHDVH E\ DQ
HVWLPDWHGDVDUHVXOWRILQFUHDVHGLQIOX[RIQXWULHQWVIURPULYHUVPDLQO\IURPODQGUXQRII
DQG OHDFKLQJ ,Q WKH XUEDQLVHG VHJPHQW RI WKH ODJRRQ DURXQG $ELGMDQ GHVSLWH WKH ODUJH
LQFUHDVH LQ QXWULHQW ORDGV LQ WKLV VHJPHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV UHPDLQ ORZHVW DV D UHVXOW RI WKH
µULQVLQJ¶WLGDOIOXVKHVRIUHODWLYHO\FOHDQZDWHUIURPWKHRSHQRFHDQWKURXJKWKH9ULGL&DQDO
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
7KHHIIHFWVLQRWKHUFRDVWDOZDWHUV\VWHPVPD\KRZHYHUEHTXLWHGLIIHUHQW)RUH[DPSOHLQ
*KDQDWKHODJRRQVLQDQGDURXQG$FFUD7HPDXUEDQDUHDVXFKDVWKH.RUOHDQG&KHPX,DQG
,, ODJRRQV DUH VPDOO DQG UDWKHU HQFORVHG ZLWK RQO\ PLQRU RXWLQOHWV WR WKH RFHDQ 7KH WLGDO
IOXVKLQJHIIHFWVDUHWKHUHIRUHYHU\OLPLWHGDQGWKHHIIHFWVRILQFUHDVHGSROOXWDQWORDGVRQWKH
DOUHDG\ VHYHUHO\ GHJHQHUDWHG ODJRRQV DUH WKXV H[SHFWHG WR EH PXFK ODUJHU WKDQ LQ WKH (EULp
ODJRRQ$OUHDG\QXWULHQWDQG%2'FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQVRPHRI$FFUD¶VODJRRQVDUHDIDFWRU
KLJKHUWKDQWKRVHPHDVXUHGLQWKH(EULpODJRRQ7DEOHSDJH
7KH ODUJHVW LPSDFWV RI WKH GHJHQHUDWHG ZDWHU TXDOLW\ ZLOO EH IHOW LQVKRUH VHH VHFWLRQ 7KHUH DUH XQIRUWXQDWHO\ QR UHOLDEOH UHFRUGV RI WKH HIIHFWV RI SROOXWLRQ RQ WKH TXDOLW\ RI WKH
RIIVKRUHZDWHUVRIWKH*2*/0(,QYLHZRIWKHVL]HGLIIHUHQFHDQGWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHJXOI
VWUHDP LW LV KRZHYHU QRW DQWLFLSDWHG WKDW WKLV HIIHFW ZLOO DV \HW EH RI PXFK VLJQLILFDQFH
1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH GHJHQHUDWHG LQVKRUH ZDWHU TXDOLW\ ZLOO DIIHFW WKH HFRV\VWHP LQGLUHFWO\ DV D
UHVXOWRIWKHGHVWUXFWLRQRIFULWLFDOKDELWDWVIRUWKHUHSURGXFWLRQRIYDULRXVHFRORJLFDOPDULQH
VSHFLHV
,GHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV
,QJHQHUDOWKHZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPRIWKH*2*LVPXFKOLNHWKDWRI/DNH9LFWRULD&KDSWHU
+LJK ORDGV RI %2' FUHDWH LPSRUWDQW LPSDFWV GLUHFWO\ DURXQG WKH SRLQWV RI GLVFKDUJH RI
GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO HIIOXHQWV 1XWULHQW ORDGV IURP ERWK GRPHVWLF ZDVWHZDWHU DQG ODQG
UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ FUHDWH LPSDFWV RQ D PXFK ODUJHU VFDOH DIIHFWLQJ LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH ZDWHU
TXDOLW\LQODJRRQVDQGHVWXDULHV$OWKRXJKWKHUHDUHDOVRGLIIHUHQFHVIRUH[DPSOHLQWHUPVRI
WKHUHODWLYHLPSRUWDQFHRIYDULRXVSROOXWLRQVRXUFHVDQXPEHURISRVVLEOHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV
IRUWKH*2*SROOXWLRQSUREOHPDUHWKHUHIRUHVLPLODUWRWKRVHIRU/DNH9LFWRULDLQFOXGLQJ
N 0HDVXUHV WR UHGXFH SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ FRDVWDO XUEDQ FHQWUHV
WKURXJK IDPLO\ SODQQLQJ DZDUHQHVV FUHDWLRQ SURJUDPV WKURXJK XUEDQ SODQQLQJ DQG
WKURXJKWKHFUHDWLRQRILQFRPHJHQHUDWLRQRSSRUWXQLWLHVRXWVLGHRIWKHFRDVWDO]RQH
N 6WLPXODWLRQ RI VXVWDLQDEOH ODQGXVH SUDFWLFHV WKURXJK HGXFDWLRQ DQG DJULFXOWXUDO
H[WHQVLRQSURJUDPVLQIRUPDWLRQSURYLVLRQDQGRWKHUVXSSRUWLQJVHUYLFHVDOODLPHGDWD
UHGXFWLRQRIVRLOHURVLRQDQGQXWULHQWODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJWRVXUIDFHZDWHUV
N /DQGXVH SODQQLQJ LQFOXGLQJ SURWHFWLRQ RI IRUHVW UHVHUYHV DQG LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH
VKRUHOLQH YHJHWDWLRQ RI ULYHUV ODJRRQV DQG HVWXDULHV WR DFW DV EXIIHU ]RQHV IRU %2'
DQG QXWULHQW ORDGV &HUWDLQ DUHDV PLJKW UHTXLUH UHSODQWDWLRQ VXFK DV IRU H[DPSOH WKH
GDPDJHGPDQJURYHIRUHVWVDORQJWKHVKRUHVRIWKHODJRRQV
N 6WLPXODWLRQRIWKHXVHRIKLJKHIILFLHQF\VWRYHVDQGRIDOWHUQDWLYHVRXUFHVRIHQHUJ\IRU
KRXVHKROG ELRPDVV EXUQLQJ LQ RUGHU WR UHGXFH WKH GHVWUXFWLRQ RI IRUHVWV DQG EXVK
UHODWHGWRLQFUHDVHGHURVLRQDQGODQGUXQRIIDVZHOODVDLUHPLVVLRQVDQGVXEVHTXHQW
DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
N 5HGXFWLRQRI%2'DQGQXWULHQWORDGVIURPGRPHVWLFVRXUFHVWKURXJKWKHGHYHORSPHQW
UHKDELOLWDWLRQ DQG H[WHQVLRQ RI ZDVWHZDWHU FROOHFWLRQ DQG WUHDWPHQW IDFLOLWLHV LQ WKH
XUEDQFHQWUHV
&KDSWHU
N 5HGXFWLRQRISROOXWLRQORDGVIURPLQGXVWULHVWKURXJKDWVRXUFHSROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQHJ
FOHDQHU SURGXFWLRQ WHFKQRORJLHV HQGRISLSH WHFKQLTXHV ZDVWHZDWHU WUHDWPHQW DV
ZHOO DV WKURXJK SODQQLQJ RI LQGXVWULDO GHYHORSPHQW HJ HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI LQGXVWULDO
]RQHV
N $EDWHPHQWRIWKHZDWHUK\DFLQWKSUREOHPWKURXJKPHFKDQLFDOKDUYHVWLQJFKHPLFDORU
ELRORJLFDOPHWKRGV
$OWKRXJKWKHVHJHQHUDOPHDVXUHVDUHVLPLODUWRWKRVHGHILQHGIRU/DNH9LFWRULDWKHIRFXVLQWKH
FDVHRIWKH*2*PXVWEHGLIIHUHQW0RVWLPSRUWDQWO\WKLVLVEHFDXVHRIWKHUHODWLYHLPSRUWDQFH
RIGRPHVWLFHIIOXHQWVLQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHDVZHOODVWKURXJKWKHLPSRUWDQWFRQWULEXWLRQRI
LQGXVWULHVWR%2'ORDGV7KHUHIRUHZKHUHWKHIRFDOSRLQWLQWKHFDVHRI/DNH9LFWRULDLVRQ
QRQSRLQWVRXUFHVODQGUXQRIIDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQSRLQWVRXUFHSROOXWLRQUHGXFWLRQLV
DW OHDVW DV LPSRUWDQW LQ WKH *2* FDVH ,W LV QRWHG WKRXJK WKDW DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH DVVHVVPHQW
SUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQDUHGXFWLRQLQSRLQWVRXUFHORDGVZRXOGUHVXOWLQLPSURYHGFRQGLWLRQV
LQVHJPHQW,,,RIWKHODJRRQRQO\EXWZRXOGQRWVXEVWDQWLDOO\LPSURYHWKHFRQGLWLRQVLQWKH
RWKHUVHJPHQWVRIWKHODJRRQ
)XUWKHUPRUHWKHUHDUHVHYHUDOVSHFLILFHFRQRPLFVHFWRUVWKDWUHTXLUHDWWHQWLRQLQSDUWLFXODUWKH
H[SORLWDWLRQRIPLQHUDOVDQGWKHRLOSURFHVVLQJLQGXVWU\$VLWFRQFHUQVWKHILUVWWKHSUREOHPV
DUH PRVW GUDPDWLF LQ 7RJR ZKHUH WKH ODJRRQ ZDWHUV DUH FRORXUHG UHG IURP WKH HURVLRQ DQG
GLVSRVDO RI SKRVSKDWH ULFK VRLOV IURP WKH SKRVSKDWH LQGXVWU\ 7KH RLO H[SORLWDWLRQ DQG
SURFHVVLQJ LQGXVWU\ PRUHRYHU LV FDXVLQJ ODUJH DPRXQWV RI RLO VSLOOV DQG LV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU
H[WHQVLYHJDVIODULQJ7KHFRQWLQXLQJGHYHORSPHQWRIWKLVHFRQRPLFVHFWRUUHTXLUHVWKHUHIRUH
PXFK DWWHQWLRQ QRW RQO\ LQ WKH RULJLQDO EDVLV RI DFWLYLW\ LQ DQG DURXQG 1LJHULD EXW DOVR LQ
QHZO\GLVFRYHUHGILHOGVLQ%HQLQ&DPHURRQ,YRU\&RDVWDQG*KDQD
:LWK UHJDUG WR WKH DERYHPHQWLRQHG PHDVXUHV WKH FRXQWULHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ KDYH DOUHDG\
XQGHUWDNHQ TXLWH D QXPEHU RI DFWLRQV )ROORZLQJ WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV &RQIHUHQFH RQ
(QYLURQPHQW DQG 'HYHORSPHQW DW 5LR GH -DQHLUR HDFK RI WKH FRXQWULHV KDV HVWDEOLVKHG D
0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWZKHUHQRW\HWH[LVWLQJZLWKLWVSROLFLHVODLGRXWLQ(QYLURQPHQWDO
$FWLRQ3ODQVH[FHSWDV\HW7RJR(DFKFRXQWU\KDVPRUHRYHUEDVLFHQYLURQPHQWDOOHJLVODWLRQ
LQSODFHLQFOXGLQJDV\VWHPRIHIIOXHQWVWDQGDUGVIRULQGXVWULHV
)XUWKHUPRUHDVGLVFXVVHGE\6FKHUHQDQG,EHUHJLRQDOFRRSHUDWLRQDQGFRRUGLQDWLRQ
KDV VWURQJO\ GHYHORSHG LQ UHFHQW \HDUV ,Q SDUWLFXODU LQ D FRRSHUDWLYH H[HUFLVH XQGHU WKH
81,'2*() *2*/0( SURMHFW WKH FRXQWULHV KDYH HDFK GHYHORSHG &RDVWDO 3URILOHV DQG
,QWHJUDWHG &RDVWDO =RQH 0DQDJHPHQW 3ODQV DQG GHYHORSHG FRPPRQ VWUDWHJLHV IRU
PDQDJHPHQW RI WKH HQYLURQPHQW ,Q WKH ILHOG RI SROOXWLRQ DEDWHPHQW PRUHRYHU WKH\ KDYH
H[HFXWHGZDWHUTXDOLW\PRQLWRULQJEDVHGXSRQVWDQGDUGLVHGPRQLWRULQJPHWKRGRORJLHVZKLFK
KDVUHQGHUHGQHZPRUHUHOLDEOHGDWD)XUWKHUPRUHH[SHUWVDQGSROLF\DGYLVRUVIURPWKHUHJLRQ
KDYH MRLQWO\ UHYLHZHG DQG GLVFXVVHG SROLFLHV DQG VWUDWHJLHV LQVWLWXWLRQDO RUJDQLVDWLRQ
OHJLVODWLRQZDWHUTXDOLW\DQGHIIOXHQWVWDQGDUGVHWF0RUHRYHUFHUWDLQSLORWSURMHFWVKDYHEHHQ
XQGHUWDNHQVXFKDVWKHUHKDELOLWDWLRQRIPDQJURYHIRUHVWVLQODJRRQDUHDV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
)URP DQ HQJLQHHULQJ SHUVSHFWLYH WKH PHDVXUHV FRQFHUQLQJ SRLQW VRXUFHV RI SROOXWLRQ
GRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOZDVWHDUHUHODWLYHO\HDVLO\DEDWDEOHDWWKHµSUHVVXUH¶OHYHO7KLVPD\
EH GRQH WKURXJK HQGRISLSH WHFKQLTXHV ZDVWHZDWHU FROOHFWLRQ DQG WUHDWPHQW EXW DOVR
WKURXJK DWVRXUFH SROOXWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ HJ DSSOLFDWLRQ RI DOWHUQDWLYH SURFHVVHV RU FOHDQHU
SURGXFWLRQ WHFKQRORJLHV 3DUWO\ VXFK HQJLQHHULQJ PHDVXUHV IRU SROOXWLRQ DEDWHPHQW PD\
FRQFHUQWKHUHKDELOLWDWLRQRIDOUHDG\H[LVWLQJLQVWDOODWLRQV)RUH[DPSOHLQ,YRU\&RDVWRI
WKHSRSXODWLRQLVFRQQHFWHGWRDPDOIXQFWLRQLQJVHZHUDJHWUHDWPHQWV\VWHPWKDWLVGLVFKDUJLQJ
XQWUHDWHGVHZHUDJHLQWRWKHODJRRQ/DJRVPRUHRYHUSRVVHVVHVRYHUZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQW
SODQWVQRQHRIZKLFKLVIXQFWLRQLQJSURSHUO\5R\DO+DVNRQLQJ7KHFRVWVRIXSJUDGLQJ
DQG FUHDWLQJ DGHTXDWH VDQLWDU\ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH FDQ KRZHYHU EH TXLWH KLJK )RU H[DPSOH LQ
$FFUD LQYHVWPHQWV QHHGHG IRU WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI D EDVLF VDQLWDWLRQ V\VWHP KDYH EHHQ
HVWLPDWHG DW PLOOLRQ 86 .OHLQ )RU /DJRV WKH EDVLF LQYHVWPHQW FRVWV IRU
UHKDELOLWDWLRQDQGXSJUDGLQJRIWKHVDQLWDWLRQV\VWHPKDYHEHHQHVWLPDWHGDWPLOOLRQ86
5R\DO+DVNRQLQJ6XFKFRVWVDUHVXEVWDQWLDOEXWDFFRUGLQJWRIRUH[DPSOHDUHFHQWO\
FRQGXFWHGVWXG\IRUWKHFDVHRI/DJRV5R\DO+DVNRQLQJDUHIHDVLEOH
7KHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIVXFKµKDUGFRUH¶HQJLQHHULQJPHDVXUHVLVKRZHYHUQRWVXIILFLHQW7KH
PDLQSRLQWRIZHDNQHVVLVRIWHQWKHLQVWLWXWLRQDORUJDQLVDWLRQIRULPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKHGHILQHG
PHDVXUHV DQG WR FRQWURO DGKHUHQFH WR OHJLVODWLRQ ,Q WKLV UHVSHFW DOWKRXJK (QYLURQPHQWDO
$FWLRQ 3ODQV H[LVW IRU DOO SURMHFW FRXQWULHV H[FHSW 7RJR FOHDUO\ VHW WDUJHWV JXLGHOLQHV DQG
VWDQGDUGVDUHVWLOOODFNLQJDVDUHFRPSUHKHQVLYH8UEDQ0DQDJHPHQW3ODQVWKDWZRXOGLQFOXGH
V\VWHPDWLF SROOXWLRQ SUHYHQWLRQ DQG DEDWHPHQW VWUDWHJLHV *RYHUQPHQWV VKRXOG WKHUHIRUH
XQGHUWDNH WR XSJUDGH VXFK SODQV WR LQFRUSRUDWH WKH FUHDWLRQ RI DSSURSULDWH VDQLWDU\
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH0RUHRYHUSULFLQJSROLFLHVIRUPDQ\QDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVVXFKDVZDWHUODQGDQG
ZRRGDUHZHDNLQYLWLQJLQWHQVLYHXVHRIWKHVHUHVRXUFHV7KH\VKRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHUHSODFHGE\
SROLFLHVWKDWHQFRXUDJHLQGLYLGXDOVDQGLQGXVWU\WRXVHQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVDSSURSULDWHO\ZLWKRXW
DGYHUVHO\ DIIHFWLQJ SURGXFWLYLW\ 7KLV FDQ EH GRQH WKURXJK WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI D V\VWHP RI
SULFLQJ RI UHVRXUFHV WKDW UHIOHFWV DV PXFK DV SRVVLEOH QRW RQO\ WKH GLUHFW FRVWV RI VXFK
UHVRXUFHVEXWDOVRWKHFRVWRIHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJHV,QDGGLWLRQWKHJHQHUDOSXEOLFVKRXOG
EHLQYROYHGDQGPDGHDZDUHRIVXFKLVVXHVLQRUGHUWRVWUHQJWKHQWKHLUUROHLQVHOIUHJXODWLRQ
,W LV QRWHG WKDW HYHQ ZLWK WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI HIIHFWLYH SROLFLHV ILQDQFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF
FRQVWUDLQWVLPSHGHPDQ\RIWKHLQYHVWPHQWVWREHPDGHLQWHUPVRISXEOLFVHFWRULQIUDVWUXFWXUH
DQG WKHUHZLWK KDPSHU JRYHUQPHQWV LQ WKHLU LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI HIIHFWLYH PHDVXUHV )LQDQFLDO
FRQVWUDLQWVDOVRSUHYHQWWKHSULYDWHVHFWRUIURPWDNLQJQHFHVVDU\SROOXWLRQDEDWHPHQWDFWLRQV
LQ WHUPV RI LQYHVWPHQW FRVWV UHODWHG WR SURFXUHPHQW DQG LQVWDOODWLRQ RI SROOXWLRQ DEDWHPHQW
WHFKQRORJLHVDQGWKHFRVWVRIUXQQLQJVXFKSUDFWLFHV$VFRQFOXGHGE\6FKHUHQDQG,EH
XQGHU WKH SUHVHQW ILQDQFLDO UHVWULFWLRQV RI WKH JRYHUQPHQWV LQ WKH *2* UHJLRQ DQ HIIHFWLYH
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQVWUDWHJ\VKRXOGFRQWDLQWKHIROORZLQJHOHPHQWV
N $SULRULWL]DWLRQRILQYHVWPHQWQHHGVWREHERUQE\QDWLRQDOEXGJHWVDQGDFOHDUVWUDWHJ\
IRULQYHVWPHQWSURMHFWVWREHSXWIRUZDUGIRUH[WHUQDOORDQVDQGJUDQWV
N $FORVHORRNDWORZFRVWRSWLRQVVXFKDVWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIPDQJURYHVDQGZHWODQGVDV
QDWXUDO
SXULILHUV
RISXWUHVFLEOHGRPHVWLFHIIOXHQWVWKHXVHRIVHWWOLQJSLWVIRUVHZDJH
WUHDWPHQWLQVPDOOFRPPXQLWLHVDQGWKHVRUWLQJRIGRPHVWLFZDVWHVSULRUWRGLVSRVDODV
D PHDQV RI HQFRXUDJLQJ UHF\FOLQJ DQG UHXVH 3LORW SURMHFWV RQ VXFK PHWKRGV KDYH
DOUHDG\EHHQXQGHUWDNHQLQVHYHUDOFRXQWULHVLQWKHUHJLRQ
&KDSWHU
N ([SORULQJ%XLOG2SHUDWHDQG7UDQVIHU%27RSWLRQVWRLQYROYHWKHSULYDWHVHFWRULQ
SXEOLFVHFWRULQYHVWPHQWV
$QDO\VLVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDDQGUHVXOWV
$VLQWKHFDVHRI/DNH9LFWRULDFKDSWHUWKHDVVHVVPHQWSUHVHQWHGLQWKHSUHFHGLQJVHFWLRQV
LV EDVHG XSRQ OLPLWHG GDWD 0RUHRYHU VRPH RI WKH IXQGDPHQWDO SK\VLFDOFKHPLFDO DQG
ELRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV LQ WKH *2*/0( DUH SRRUO\ XQGHUVWRRG $FNQRZOHGJHPHQW RI
XQFHUWDLQWLHVLVWKHUHIRUHDFUXFLDODVSHFWRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWSURFHVV$VVWDWHGLQVHFWLRQ
WZRFDWHJRULHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHDVVHVVPHQWDUHGLVWLQJXLVKHG
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQYDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUV
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHIRUPRIWKHDSSOLHGDVVHVVPHQWWRROVPRGHOV
7KHIDFWRUVRIXQFHUWDLQW\GLIIHUEHWZHHQWKHWZROHYHOVRIDVVHVVPHQWSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQV
DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\6HFWLRQSUHVHQWDURXJKHVWLPDWHRISROOXWLRQORDGVIURPGRPHVWLFDQG
LQGXVWULDO VRXUFHV RQ D UHJLRQZLGH OHYHO QR PRGHOOLQJ LV LQYROYHG DQG XQFHUWDLQWLHV DUH
WKHUHIRUH OLPLWHG WR XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ YDULDEOHV RQO\ 7KH PRUH GHWDLOHG VWXG\ RQ WKH (EULp
ODJRRQ KRZHYHU GRHV LQYROYH PRGHOOLQJ DQG DV D UHVXOW DOVR WKH VHFRQG FDWHJRU\ RI
XQFHUWDLQWLHV
7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQV SURYLGH DQ HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH WZR W\SHV RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV DQG WKHLU
UHVSHFWLYHLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQW
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQYDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUV
$VDUJXHGLQVHFWLRQWKHPDLQVRXUFHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\DUHDSSUR[LPDWLRQRIYDOXHVGXHWR
WKH DEVHQFH RI DFFXUDWH GDWD DQG YDULDELOLW\ GXH WR WKH LQKHUHQW UDQGRPQHVV RI QDWXUH DQG
VRFLHW\.H\YDULDEOHVDQGSDUDPHWHUVLQWKLVUHVSHFWDUH
N 3ROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJDQGGRPHVWLFDQG
LQGXVWULDOVRXUFHV
N 3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUV
N 7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI1DQG3LQWKH(EULp/DJRRQ
N 7KHQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQLQWKHPXOWLVHJPHQWQXWULHQWEDODQFHPRGHO
&RQVLGHULQJ WKH ODUJH XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH DERYH SDUDPHWHUV XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ YDOXHV IRU
SDUDPHWHUVGHULYHGIURPDFWXDOVWDWLVWLFDOGDWDVXFKDVSRSXODWLRQQXPEHUDQGJURZWKGDWD
ODQGFXOWLYDWLRQUDLQIDOODQGLQGXVWULDOSURGXFWLRQWKHSROOXWLRQIDFWRUVDUHDVVXPHGVPDOOLQ
FRPSDULVRQWRWKHDERYHOLVWHGSDUDPHWHUV$GLVFXVVLRQRIHDFKRIWKHDERYHOLVWHGSDUDPHWHUV
DQGYDULDEOHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV
$QRYHUYLHZRISROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVDSSOLHGLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWDVZHOODVRIUDQJHVRIYDOXHV
IRU VXFK LQWHQVLWLHV DV UHSRUWHG LQ OLWHUDWXUH LV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH SDJH 7KH
DVVHVVPHQWSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQVDQGLVEDVHGRQWKHµEHVWJXHVV¶YDOXHVLQ7DEOH
LQGLFDWHG DV µPHDQ¶ 7KH GLVFXVVLRQ RQ GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV DV
SUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQIRUWKHFDVHRI/DNH9LFWRULDLVYDOLGDOVRIRUWKH*2*2QWKHEDVLV
RI VSHFLILF GDWD IRU WKH ODWWHU FDVH DGGLWLRQDO DQDO\VLV RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV FDQ KRZHYHU EH
SHUIRUPHGIRUODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJDQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
3ROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV IRU UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ ± 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ QR GDWD H[LVWV RQ 1 DQG 3
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV LQ WKH WULEXWDULHV RI WKH (EULp /DJRRQ +RZHYHU WKH PXOWLVHJPHQW QXWULHQW
EDODQFH PRGHO RI WKH ODJRRQ DV GHVFULEHG LQ VHFWLRQ SURYLGHV DQ LQWHUQDO PHDQV RI
FRPSDULVRQ7DEOHSUHVHQWVWKHHVWLPDWHGQXWULHQWORDGVIRUVHJPHQWV,E,,DQG,9RIWKH
ODJRRQ EDVHG RQ WKLV PRGHO 7KH FDOFXODWHG QXWULHQW ORDGV UHSUHVHQW PDLQO\ QXWULHQW LQSXWV
IURPWKHULYHUV0p&RPRpDQG$JQpE\UHVSHFWLYHO\2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHUHVSHFWLYHFDWFKPHQW
DUHDVL]HVRIWKHVHULYHUVQXWULHQWH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVIRUWKHUHVSHFWLYHULYHUFDWFKPHQWEDVLQV
FDQWKHUHIRUHEHFDOFXODWHG7KHUHVXOWVGHPRQVWUDWHWKDWQXWULHQWH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVDUHZLWKLQ
WKHORZHUUDQJHRIYDOXHVUHSRUWHGLQ7DEOH
• 7DEOH $VVHVVPHQWRIQXWULHQWH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWVUHVXOWLQJIURPWKH(EULpODJRRQQXWULHQW
EDODQFHVHFWLRQEDVHGRQWKHPXOWLVHJPHQWQXWULHQWEDODQFHPRGHOIRUWKH\HDU&$ &DWFKPHQWDUHD
5LYHU
)DFWRUNJKDÂ\
1
3
&RPRp
$JQpE\
0p
&$NP 5LYHULQIORZW\
:HLJKWHGDYHUDJH
1
3
$V DUJXHG LQ VHFWLRQ WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH PXOWLVHJPHQW QXWULHQW EDODQFH DVVHVVPHQW DUH
FRQVLGHUHG DFFXUDWH IRU VHFWLRQV ,E ,, DQG ,,, 7KLV LV LQ YLHZ RI WKH IDFW WKDW WKH PDLQ
SDUDPHWHU RI XQFHUWDLQW\ QXWULHQW UHWHQWLRQ VHH IXUWKHU RQ LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ GRHV QRW
VXEVWDQWLDOO\ LQIOXHQFH WKH UHVXOW RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW IRU WKRVH VHFWLRQV EHFDXVH RI WKH VKRUW
UHWHQWLRQWLPHLQWKRVHVHFWLRQV2QWKLVEDVLVWKHHVWLPDWHVIRUQXWULHQWH[SRUWIURPWKH&RPRp
DQG 0p ULYHUV DUH FRQVLGHUHG UHODWLYHO\ DFFXUDWH 0RUHRYHU DQ DGGLWLRQDO DQDO\VLV RI
XQFHUWDLQWLHV RI WKH HVWLPDWHG ODQG UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ LV SUHVHQWHG LQ VHFWLRQ ZKLFK
FRPSDUHVWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWZLWKDQDOWHUQDWLYHPHWKRGRORJ\IRUWKHHVWLPDWLRQRI
GLVVROYHGLQRUJDQLF1',1H[SRUWIURPULYHUVE\&DUDFRDQG&ROH$VFRQFOXGHGLQ
VHFWLRQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\DUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHHVWLPDWHVGHULYHGIURPWKH
PXOWLVHJPHQW QXWULHQW EDODQFH PRGHO ,Q YLHZ RI WKHVH FRQVLGHUDWLRQV WKH UDQJHV RI
XQFHUWDLQW\IRUWKHH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWPD\EHDVVXPHGWREHQRPRUHWKDQRIIWKHYDOXHV
SUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOH
&KDSWHU
,WLVQRWHGWKDWDFRPSDULVRQRIWKHULYHUVZLWKWKHLUGLIIHUHQWFDWFKPHQWDUHDVL]HVDVSUHVHQWHG
LQ 7DEOH SURYLGHV DOVR HYLGHQFH IRU WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI GHQLWULILFDWLRQ LQ ULYHUV 7KH
&RPRpE\IDUWKHPRVWH[WHQVLYHLQOHQJWKRIWKHWKUHHULYHUVNPDJDLQVWNPIRU
0pDQGNPIRUWKH$JQpE\KDVDFRQVLGHUDEO\ORZHU1H[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWWKDQWKHRWKHUV
ZKHUHDVIRU3WKHYDOXHVDUHZLWKLQWKHVDPHUDQJH$QH[SODQDWLRQIRUWKLVUHVXOWPD\EHWKDW
DVDUHVXOWRIWKHOHQJWKRIWKH&RPRpWKHDYHUDJHWLPHVSHQWE\QXWULHQWVLQWKHULYHULVPXFK
ORQJHUUHVXOWLQJLQDKLJKHUOHYHORIGHQLWULILFDWLRQLQWKHULYHU6LQFHIRU3VXFKDSURFHVVGRHV
QRWWDNHSODFHWKLVHIIHFWLVQRWVHHQLQLWVUHVSHFWLYHH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQW
3ROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ±9DOXHVIRUWKHDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQRI
QXWULHQWV WKURXJK UDLQIDOO DUH EDVHG XSRQ GDWD UHSRUWHG E\ /HPDVVRQ DQG 3DJqV DQG
UHSUHVHQWGDWDFROOHFWHGDVSDUWRIUHVHDUFKZRUNFRQGXFWHGE\WKH)UHQFK,QVWLWXWH256720
7KHLU VWXG\ LQYROYHG DQXPEHURIVDPSOLQJVWDWLRQVVSUHDGRYHUWKHDUHDRIWKHODJRRQDQG
PRQLWRUHGRYHUDSHULRGRI\HDUV7KHVSDWLDOO\DQGWHPSRUDOO\PHDQGHSRVLWLRQ
UDWHV DUH NJKDÂ\ IRU 1 DQG NJKDÂ\ IRU 3 ,Q YLHZ RI WKLV ILUP EDVLV RI H[WHQVLYH
VDPSOLQJE\DUHQRZQHGLQVWLWXWHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHZHWGHSRVLWLRQRI1DQG3DUHFRQVLGHUHG
QHJOLJLEOHLQFRPSDULVRQWRXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQRWKHUSDUDPHWHUV)RUGU\GHSRVLWLRQKRZHYHUQR
GDWDLVDYDLODEOH+RZHYHUEDVHGRQDQDO\VHVSUHVHQWHGE\$KQDQG-DPHVDQG3RRUHW
DOLWPD\EHDVVXPHGWKDWWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIGU\GHSRVLWLRQWRQXWULHQWLQSXWYDULHV
EHWZHHQ DQG RI WKH WRWDO DWPRVSKHULF QXWULHQW GHSRVLWLRQ 7KLV DVVXPSWLRQ OHDGV WR
UDQJHV RI WR NJKDÂ\ IRU 1 DQG RI WR NJKDÂ\ IRU 3 IRU WRWDO DWPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQ
3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUV
3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVXVHGIRUWKH(EULp/DJRRQDVVHVVPHQWDUH
N 3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVIRU%2'UHGXFWLRQLQULYHUV
N 3HQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVIRUZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWSODQWV
$VSHFWVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHVHWZRSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVDUHVLPLODUWRWKRVHIRU/DNH9LFWRULD
VHHVHFWLRQZLWKWKHDGGLWLRQDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKDWWKHHIIHFWVRIVXFKXQFHUWDLQWLHVRQWKH
UHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWZLOOEHYHU\OLPLWHGEHFDXVH
N 7KHZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWSODQWLQ$ELGMDQLVSUHVHQWO\QRWIXQFWLRQLQJDQGVHZHUDJH
LVFRQVHTXHQWO\GLVFKDUJHGXQWUHDWHGLQWRWKHODJRRQ7KHSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUXVHGIRU
GRPHVWLFZDVWHZDWHULVWKHUHIRUHDQGGRHVQRWLQYROYHDQ\XQFHUWDLQWLHV
N 2QO\RXWRIWKHLQGXVWULDOHQWHUSULVHVGLVFKDUJLQJLQWRWKHODJRRQKDYHDWUHDWPHQW
SODQW LQVWDOOHG 7KHUHIRUH DQ\ XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV IRU LQGXVWULDO
ZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWSODQWVZRXOGKDYHOLPLWHGLQIOXHQFHRIWKHSROOXWDQWEDODQFHIRU
WKHODJRRQDVDZKROH
N ,Q RQO\ RXW RI FDVHV WKH LQGXVWULHV DUH ORFDWHG DZD\ IURP WKH ODJRRQ DQG
GLVFKDUJLQJWRLWVWULEXWDULHV6$3+%RQJRDWNPXSVWUHDPRQWKH&RPRpULYHUDQG
&27,9, LQ $JERYLOOH DW NP XSVWUHDP RQ WKH $JQpE\ ULYHU 7KHUHIRUH DQ\
XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH µGLVWDQFH¶ SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRU IRU %2' UHGXFWLRQ LQ ULYHUV DQG
QXWULHQWUHGXFWLRQLQZHWODQGVDVGHVFULEHGLQVHFWLRQZRXOGKDYHYHU\OLPLWHG
LQIOXHQFHRIWKHSROOXWDQWEDODQFHIRUWKHODJRRQDVDZKROH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
,Q YLHZ RI WKHVH FRQVLGHUDWLRQV XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ SHQHWUDWLRQ IDFWRUV DUH GHHPHG VPDOO LQ
FRPSDULVRQWRRWKHUIDFWRUVRIXQFHUWDLQW\
,QWKHFDVHRIWKHUHJLRQZLGHDVVHVVPHQWVHFWLRQQRSHQHWUDWLRQIDFWRUVZHUHXVHG$V
VXFKWKHDVVHVVPHQWGRHVQRWWDNHDFFRXQWRIWKHH[LVWHQFHLQFDVHVRIZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQW
IDFLOLWLHV 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW SUHVHQW WKHUHIRUH LQ IDFW WKH SUHWUHDWPHQW SROOXWLRQ
ORDGV7KLVFKRLFHZDVPDGHGHOLEHUDWHO\LQYLHZRIWKHIDFWWKDWGDWDRQWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHV
DQGUHODWHGHIILFLHQFLHVZDVQRWDYDLODEOHRQWKLVVFDOHRIDVVHVVPHQW$Q\DVVXPSWLRQVLQWKLV
UHVSHFWZRXOGRQO\HQWDLOXQFHUWDLQWLHV,WLVQRWHGKRZHYHUWKDWLQIHZRIWKHXUEDQFHQWUHV
FRPPXQDOZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVDUHDYDLODEOHLQIDFWRQO\LQ/DJRVDQG,YRU\&RDVW
DQG ZKHUH WKH\ DUH WKH\ QRW RU RQO\ YHU\ SRRUO\ IXQFWLRQLQJ )XUWKHUPRUH PRVW LQGXVWULDO
HQWHUSULVHVLQWKHUHJLRQGRQRWKDYHZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWIDFLOLWLHVHVWDEOLVKHGLQWKHFDVHRI
,YRU\ &RDVW RXW RI HQWHUSULVHV GLVFKDUJLQJ LQWR WKH ODJRRQ RU LWV WULEXWDULHV RSHUDWH D
WUHDWPHQWSODQWDQGDJDLQZKHUHWKH\DUHQRQHVHHPVWREHLQDSURSHUO\IXQFWLRQLQJ7KH
HVWLPDWHVPDGHRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWZRXOGWKHUHIRUHQRWEHDIIHFWHGWRDODUJHH[WHQW
&RQFHQWUDWLRQVRI1DQG3LQWKH(EULp/DJRRQ
7KHYDOXHVXVHGIRUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI1DQG3LQWKHYDULRXVVHJPHQWVRIWKH(EULp/DJRRQ
)LJXUHSDJHDUHEDVHGRQH[WHQVLYHVDPSOLQJDQGDQDO\VLVE\WKH)UHQFKUHVHDUFK
LQVWLWXWH 256720 IRU WKH VHDVRQ ,Q YLHZ RI WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\ UHFRJQL]HG
WHFKQLFDOFDSDFLW\RI256720LWPD\EHFRQVLGHUHGWKDWWKHODUJHVWIDFWRURIXQFHUWDLQW\LQ
WKLVGDWDLVQRWUHODWHGWRHUURUVLQDQDO\VLVEXWUDWKHUWRWKHIDFWWKDWWKHVHYDOXHVUHSUHVHQWD
VQDSVKRW RI FRQGLWLRQV GXULQJ D FHUWDLQ SHULRG RI WLPH ,Q WKLV UHVSHFW 'XIRXU GHPRQVWUDWHVODUJHYDULDWLRQVLQ1DQG3FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRYHUWKHYDULRXVVHDVRQVXSWRDIDFWRU
òZLWKKLJKHVWYDOXHVUHFRUGHGGXULQJWKHSHULRG0D\±-XO\WKHUDLQ\VHDVRQ,WVKRXOGEH
QRWHG WKHUHIRUH WKDW WKH DVVHVVPHQW SUHVHQWHG LQ VHFWLRQ LV EDVHG XSRQ DQQXDO DYHUDJH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWVHJPHQWVRQO\DQGGRHVQRWLQWHQGWRDVVHVVH[WUHPHV5DWKHU
LW H[SODLQV \HDUO\ DYHUDJH FRQGLWLRQV ZKHUHE\ WKH \HDU VHUYHV DV D EDVHOLQH
FRQGLWLRQ 'HILQHG DV VXFK WKH IDFWRU RI 1 DQG 3 FRQFHQWUDWLRQV GRHV QRW HQWDLO LPSRUWDQW
XQFHUWDLQWLHV
1XWULHQWUHWHQWLRQ
8QWLOSUHVHQWWKHUHH[LVWVQRGDWDRQQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQLQWKH(EULp/DJRRQ9DOXHVXVHGKDYH
WKHUHIRUHEHHQEDVHGXSRQHPSLULFDOUHODWLRQVSUHVHQWHGE\9ROOHQZHLGHUIRU3DQGE\
1L[RQHWDOIRU1(TXDWLRQSDJHDQG(TXDWLRQSDJHUHVSHFWLYHO\
1DWXUDOO\WKHUHIRUHWKLVSDUDPHWHULQYROYHVXQFHUWDLQWLHVSDUWLFXODUO\LQFDVHVZKHUHQXWULHQW
UHWHQWLRQIRUPVDQLPSRUWDQWSDUWRIWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFH$VGLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQVXFKLV
WKHFDVHIRUVHJPHQWV,D99,DQGWRDOHVVHUH[WHQGVHJPHQW,9RIWKHODJRRQ
&KDSWHU
6RPHFRQILGHQFHPD\EHJDLQHGE\FRPSDULQJ(TXDWLRQDQG(TXDWLRQ'HR[\JHQDWLRQ
KDV EHHQ UHSRUWHG IRU FHUWDLQ DUHDV LQ $ELGMDQ UHFHLYLQJ KLJK %2' ORDGV EXW WKH ODUJH
PDMRULW\ RI WKH ODJRRQ LV IXOO\ R[\JHQDWHG ,Q YLHZ RI WKLV IDFW DV ZHOO DV EHFDXVH RI WKH
UHODWLYHO\ VKRUW UHWHQWLRQ WLPH LQ WKH ODJRRQ GHQLWULILFDWLRQ LQ WKH ZDWHU FROXPQ ZLOO EH
QHJOLJLEOHLQFRPSDULVRQWRGHQLWULILFDWLRQLQVHGLPHQWVHH$QQH[7KHRUHWLFDOO\WKHUHIRUH
LW PD\ EH DVVXPHG WKDW WKH QXWULHQW UHWHQWLRQ UDWHV IRU 1 DQG 3 DUH JRYHUQHG E\ WKH UDWH RI
VHGLPHQWDWLRQ 6LQFH WKH ODWWHU LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH GHDWK DQG VXEVHTXHQW
VHGLPHQWDWLRQPLQHUDOL]DWLRQUDWHRIDOJDHWKHQHWVHGLPHQWDWLRQUDWHVIRU1DQG3VKRXOGEH
DSSUR[LPDWHO\HTXDO,QRWKHUZRUGVIRUVKRUWUHWHQWLRQWLPHVVXFKDVLQWKHFDVHRIWKH(EULp
ODJRRQ 9ROOHQZHLGHU¶V DQG 1L[RQ HW DO¶V PRGHOV VKRXOG OHDG WR WKH VDPH
VHGLPHQWDWLRQ UDWH $ FRPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ WKH WZR UHODWLRQV DV SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH LQGHHG VKRZV WKDW VXFK LV WKH FDVH DSDUW IURP VHJPHQW ,,, ZKLFK KDV DQ H[WUHPHO\ VKRUW
UHWHQWLRQWLPHRIGD\VZKLFKVHHPVWREHEH\RQGWKHOLPLWVRIYDOLGLW\RI1L[RQ¶VPRGHO)RU
WKRVHVHJPHQWVZKHUHWKHQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQIDFWRULVDQLVVXHRIXQFHUWDLQW\,99DQG9,WKH
WZR UHODWLRQV JLYH KRZHYHU PRUH RU OHVV WKH VDPH UHVXOW ZKLFK SURYLGHV UHDVVXUDQFH IRU D
UHDVRQDEOHHVWLPDWHRIWKHQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQIDFWRULQWKHVHFDVHV
1L[RQHWDO
9ROOHQZHLGHU
1UHWDLQHG
,D
,E
,,
,,,
,9
9
9,
6HJPHQW
• )LJXUH &RPSDULVRQRIYDOXHVIRUQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQLQWKHYDULRXVVHJPHQWVRIWKH(EULp
/DJRRQDFFRUGLQJWR9ROOHQZHLGHUDQG1L[RQHWDO
,QYLHZRIWKHGLVFXVVLRQDERYHDIDFWRUHUURULQWKHQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQIDFWRUDVDQXOWLPDWH
PD[LPXP LV FRQVLGHUHG D MXVWLILHG DVVXPSWLRQ 7KH FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKHVH PDUJLQV RI
XQFHUWDLQW\ LV GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ 7DEOH ZKLFK SUHVHQW WKH UHVXOWV RI PRGHO UXQV ZLWK
YDU\LQJQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQIDFWRUV$VH[SHFWHGWKHUHVXOWVGHPRQVWUDWHDVWURQJVHQVLWLYLW\RI
WKHPRGHOLQVHJPHQWVRIORQJHUUHWHQWLRQWLPH,D,999,DQGOHVVVRLQRWKHUVHJPHQWV
,E,,DQG,,,
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
• 7DEOH &DOFXODWHG1DQG3ORDGVSHUVHJPHQWRIWKH(EULpODJRRQDSSO\LQJWKHPXOWL
VHJPHQWQXWULHQWEDODQFHPRGHOZLWKYDU\LQJQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQIDFWRUV7KHHVWLPDWHGDWPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQRIQXWULHQWVLVFRPSHQVDWHGIRULQWKHEDODQFH(0 QXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQDFFRUGLQJWR
HPSLULFDOPRGHOE\1L[RQHWDOIRU1DQG9ROOHQZHLGHUIRU3
6HJPHQW
1W\
(0
3W\
(0 (0
(0
(0 (0
,D
,E
,,
,,,
,9
9
9,
7RWDOV
$ QXPEHU RI LPSRUWDQW FRQFOXVLRQV PD\ EH GUDZQ IURP WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ UDQJHV SUHVHQWHG LQ
7DEOH
N 7KH RYHUDOO QXWULHQW ORDGV WR WKH (EULp /DJRRQ IRU UDQJH EHWZHHQ DQG
W\IRU1ZLWKW\DVDEHVWJXHVVYDOXHDQGEHWZHHQDQGW\
IRU3ZLWKW\DVDEHVWJXHVVYDOXH
N 7KH HVWLPDWHG QXWULHQW ORDGV LQ VHJPHQW ,,, RI WKH ODJRRQ WKH $ELGMDQ DUHD UDQJH
EHWZHHQDQGW\IRU1ZLWKW\DVDEHVWJXHVVYDOXHDQGEHWZHHQ
DQGW\IRU3ZLWKW\DVDEHVWJXHVVYDOXH7KHPDUJLQRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQ
WKLVHVWLPDWHLVUHODWLYHO\VPDOOXSWR8UEDQGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOLQSXWVIURP
$ELGMDQ UHSUHVHQW DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RI WKLV ORDG 7KLV UHVXOW WKXV FRQVLGHUDEO\
QDUURZVGRZQWKHUDQJHVIRUGRPHVWLF1DQG3ORDGVDVGLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQ)RU
1WKHWRWDOGRPHVWLFORDGHQGVXSVOLJKWO\KLJKHUWKDQWKHEHVWJXHVVYDOXHFDOFXODWHG
DFFRUGLQJWRWKH5$PHWKRGRORJ\LQGLFDWHGDVµPHDQ¶LQ7DEOHSDJHZKLOH
IRU3WKHWRWDOYDOXHLVEHORZWKLVDVVXPHGµEHVWJXHVV¶YDOXH
N 7RWDO ODQG UXQRII UDQJHV EHWZHHQ DQG W\ ZLWK D EHVWJXHVV YDOXH RI
W\IRU1DQGEHWZHHQDQGW\ZLWKDEHVWJXHVVYDOXHRIW\IRU3
7KH UHVSHFWLYH UHJLRQZLGH DYHUDJH QXWULHQW H[SRUW FRHIILFLHQWV FRQVHTXHQWO\ UDQJH
EHWZHHQDQGWKDÂ\ZLWKDEHVWJXHVVYDOXHRIWKDÂ\IRU1DQGEHWZHHQ
DQGWKDÂ\ZLWKDEHVWJXHVVYDOXHRIWKDÂ\IRU37KLVMXVWLILHVWKH
FRQFOXVLRQHDUOLHURQZKLFKUHJDUGWRWKHQXWULHQWH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWWKDWWKHPDUJLQRI
XQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHHVWLPDWHGQXWULHQWH[SRUWFRHIILFLHQWLVQRPRUHWKDQIURPWKH
EHVWJXHVV YDOXH 0RUHRYHULWPD\EHFRQFOXGHGWKDWLQSDUWLFXODUIRU1WKHH[SRUW
FRHIILFLHQWVDUHZLWKLQWKHORZHUUDQJHRIYDOXHVUHSRUWHGLQOLWHUDWXUH
N 7KHGLVWULEXWLRQODQGUXQRIIGRPHVWLFORDGVYDULHVEHWZHHQDQGIRU1DQG
EHWZHHQDQGIRU31XWULHQWORDGVIURPODQGUXQRIIDQGGRPHVWLFVRXUFHV
DUHWKXVPRUHRUOHVVHTXDOO\LPSRUWDQWDOWKRXJKWKHEDODQFHVHHPVWREHWRZDUGVWKH
ILUVW
&KDSWHU
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHIRUPRIWKHDSSOLHGDVVHVVPHQWWRROVPRGHOV
7KH PRGHO DSSOLHG IRU WKH (EULp /DJRRQ VWXG\ FRQFHUQV D GLPHQVLRQDO PXOWLVHJPHQW
QXWULHQW EDODQFH PRGHO ZKLFK QDWXUDOO\ SURYLGHV D VLPSOLILHG UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI UHDOLW\ 7KH
WKUHHPDLQDVVXPSWLRQVDSSUR[LPDWLRQVLQWKLVDSSURDFKDUH
N 7KHODJRRQV\VWHPFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGDVDVHULHVRIFRPSOHWHO\PL[HGZDWHUV\VWHPV
PXFKOLNHWKHFRQWLQXRXVVWLUUHGWDQNUHDFWRUDSSURDFKDSSOLHGLQFKHPLFDOHQJLQHHULQJ
(TXDWLRQSDJH
N 7KHV\VWHPDFWVVXIILFLHQWO\IDVWWRH[WHUQDOO\LPSRVHGFKDQJHVHJQXWULHQWORDGLQJV
WREHDEOHWRFRQVLGHUVWHDG\VWDWHFRQGLWLRQV(TXDWLRQSDJH
N $OOSURFHVVHVLQYROYLQJQXWULHQWVZLWKLQWKHZDWHUV\VWHPDUHOLQHDUWRWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQ
RIWKHVHQXWULHQWVZLWKLQWKHV\VWHP(TXDWLRQSDJH
7KH DERYH WKUHH DVVXPSWLRQVDSSUR[LPDWLRQV DUH GLVFXVVHG EHORZ ZLWKLQ WKH OLJKW RI
XQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQW
6HULHVRIFRPSOHWHO\PL[HGZDWHUV\VWHP
$VLVFOHDUIURP)LJXUHSDJHWKHODJRRQV\VWHPLVIDUIURPKRPRJHQHRXV1XWULHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVEHWZHHQWKHYDULRXVSUHGHILQHGVHJPHQWVGLIIHUFRQVLGHUDEO\XSWRDIDFWRU
,Q YLHZ RI WKH ODJRRQ V\VWHP¶V URXJK VKRUHOLQH PRUSKRORJ\ )LJXUH SDJH FRQGLWLRQVPD\DOVRYDU\FRQVLGHUDEO\RQDPRUHORFDOVFDOH,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRQRWHWKDWWKH
VHOHFWLRQ RI VHJPHQWV DV SUHVHQWHG LQ VHFWLRQ ZDV GRQH RQ WKH EDVLV RI GLVWLQFW
GLIIHUHQFHV LQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV IRU H[DPSOH LPSRUWDQW YDULDWLRQV LQ GHSWK SRLQWV RI ULYHU
LQIORZRXWIORZRUWKHH[LVWHQFHRIDQLPSRUWDQWSROOXWLRQVRXUFH$ELGMDQ%\GLYLGLQJWKH
ODJRRQLQWRVXFKVHJPHQWVWKHPRGHOUHSUHVHQWVWKHDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQHDFKRIWKHVH
VHJPHQWV)RUWKHSXUSRVHRIJHWWLQJVXFKKLJKHUOHYHOLQVLJKWLQWRWKHQXWULHQWG\QDPLFVRIWKH
ODJRRQ V\VWHP WKLV DSSURDFK LV VXIILFLHQW DQG GRHV QRW HQWDLO DQ\ XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WHUPV RI
VWUXFWXUH
7KHVWHDG\VWDWHDVVXPSWLRQ
,Q DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK VHFWLRQ D VWHDG\ VWDWH DVVXPSWLRQ PD\ EH DVVXPHG LI WKH WLPH
EHWZHHQDFHUWDLQLQFUHDVHLQORDG:$DQGLWVGHWHUPLQDWLRQLVFRQVLGHUDEO\ODUJHUWKDQWKH
FKDUDFWHULVWLFUHVSRQVHWLPH¦$$SSO\LQJ(TXDWLRQSDJHDQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFVIRUWKH
YDULRXVVHJPHQWVDVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQ¦$YDULHVEHWZHHQ\HDUIRUVHJPHQW,,,WR
\HDUIRUVHJPHQW,D,QYLHZRIWKHIDFWWKDWFKDQJHVLQSROOXWLRQORDGVWRWKHODJRRQKDYHWDNHQ
SODFHJUDGXDOO\RYHUWKHODVWFHQWXU\WKHVWHDG\VWDWHDVVXPSWLRQLVWKHUHIRUHZHOOMXVWLILHG
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
/LQHDUSURFHVVHV
(TXDWLRQSDJHDVVXPHVWKDWDOOSURFHVVHVLQYROYLQJQXWULHQWVDUHOLQHDUO\UHODWHGWRWKH
FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKHVHQXWULHQWVLQWKHZDWHUV\VWHP,QUHDOLW\KRZHYHUDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPV
DUHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\VWURQJLQWHUDFWLRQVDPRQJFRPSRQHQWVUHVXOWLQJLQQRQOLQHDUUHVSRQVHV
)RUH[DPSOHWKHFRQGLWLRQVLQDZDWHUERG\PD\FKDQJHJUDGXDOO\XQGHUSUHVVXUHRILQFUHDVHG
SROOXWLRQ ORDGV XQWLO D FHUWDLQ WKUHVKROG LV UHDFKHG DIWHU ZKLFK HYHQ D VPDOO LQFUHPHQW ZLOO
FDXVH FRQGLWLRQV WR FKDQJH GUDPDWLFDOO\ $OWKRXJK VXFK SURFHVVHV DUH QRW NQRZQ WR KDYH
RFFXUUHGLQWKH(EULp/DJRRQLWLVFOHDUWKDWWKHDVVXPSWLRQPDGHGLVUHJDUGVWKHFRQVHTXHQFHV
RISRVVLEOHFKDQJHVLQWKHHFRV\VWHP)RUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRISUHVHQWFRQGLWLRQVWKHVWDWXVTXR
WKLV XQFHUWDLQW\ KDV QR FRQVHTXHQFHV +RZHYHU QXWULHQW SURFHVVHV ZLWKLQ WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP
PLJKW FKDQJH FRQVLGHUDEO\ LQ WKH IXWXUH DV D UHVXOW RI LQFUHDVHG SROOXWLRQ ORDGV WKDW OHDG WR
FKDQJHVLQWKHHFRV\VWHP7KLVKDVFRQVHTXHQFHVIRUWKHSUHGLFWLRQRIIXWXUHFRQGLWLRQVZLWKLQ
WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP VHFWLRQ 7KH PDJQLWXGH RI WKLV XQFHUWDLQW\ FDQ DW SUHVHQW QRW EH
SUHGLFWHGZLWKRXWDEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHIXQGDPHQWDOVRIWKHSURFHVVHVLQYROYHG
6XPPDU\RIFRQFOXVLRQVRQXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDDQGUHVXOWV
$VIROORZVIURPWKHDQDO\VLVLQVHFWLRQVWKHUHDUHLPSRUWDQWXQFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWRWKH
µSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV¶XVHGLQWKH5$PHWKRGRORJ\(TXDWLRQSDJH$VIROORZVIURP
VHFWLRQPRUHRYHULQWKHFDVHRIWKH(EULp/DJRRQDQDGGLWLRQDOLPSRUWDQWSDUDPHWHURI
XQFHUWDLQW\ LV WKH QXWULHQW UHWHQWLRQ SDUDPHWHU LQ WKH PXOWLVHJPHQW QXWULHQW EDODQFH PRGHO
(TXDWLRQSDJH2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQLWLV
FRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHVHWZRDVSHFWVDUHOLNHO\WKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUVRIXQFHUWDLQW\+RZHYHU
LWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLVOLPLWHGLQVFRSHDQGGHSWKDQGWKHUHIRUHLWV
UHVXOWVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGZLWKVRPHFDUH
2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHXQFHUWDLQW\LQWHUYDOVGLVFXVVHGLQWKHSUHFHGLQJVHFWLRQV)LJXUHDG
SUHVHQWVXQFHUWDLQW\UDQJHVIRU%2'1DQG3ORDGVWRWKH(EULpODJRRQDVZHOODVUDQJHVIRU
%2'ORDGVWRWKHWRWDO*XOIRI*XLQHDVWXG\DUHDDVGHILQHGLQVHFWLRQ5HIHUHQFH\HDU
IRU1DQG3ORDGVLV5HIHUHQFH\HDUIRU%2'ORDGVLV7KHXQFHUWDLQW\UDQJHVLQ
)LJXUHUHSUHVHQWWKHDEVROXWHPLQLPXPPD[LPXPYDOXHVIRU%2'1DQG3ORDGVUDWKHU
WKDQDSUREDELOLW\UDQJHEDVHGRQIRUH[DPSOH0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQV)XUWKHUPRUHLWVKRXOG
EH QRWHG WKDW WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ UDQJHV DUH EDVHG XSRQ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW WKH PDLQ IDFWRU RI
XQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHVHYDOXHVUHODWHVWRWKHµSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLW\¶SDUDPHWHUUDWKHUWKDQµIXQFWLRQDO
YDULDEOHV¶LQWKH5$PHWKRGRORJ\(TXDWLRQSDJHDVDUJXHGLQVHFWLRQ
&RYHULQJWKHILYHODUJHVWFRXQWULHVERUGHULQJWKHZHVWHUQDQGFHQWUDOVHJPHQWVRIWKH*2*Š,YRU\&RDVW*KDQD
%HQLQ1LJHULDDQG&DPHURRQ7RJRLVH[FOXGHGIURPWKLVTXDQWLWDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWEHFXDVHLWMRLQWWKHUHJLRQDO
DVVHVVPHQWHIIRUWRQO\ODWHUVHHVHFWLRQ
&KDSWHU
D
E
%2'/RDGW\
1ORDGW\
'RPHVWLF
5XQRII
,QGXVWULDO
'HSRVLWLRQ
6RXUFH
6RXUFH
F
G
%2'/RDGW\
3ORDGW\
'RPHVWLF
'RPHVWLF
5XQRII
6RXUFH
'HSRVLWLRQ
,QGXVWULDO
'RPHVWLF
6RXUFH
• )LJXUH 8QFHUWDLQW\DEVROXWHPLQPD[UDQJHVIRU%2'1DQG3ORDGVD1ORDGIRUWKH
(EULp/DJRRQUHIHUHQFH\HDUE%2'/RDGIRUWKH(EULp/DJRRQUHIHUHQFH\HDUF
3/RDGIRUWKH(EULp/DJRRQUHIHUHQFH\HDUDQGG%2'/RDGIRUWKHILYHODUJHVW
FRXQWULHVLQWKHVWXG\DUHD,YRU\&RDVW*KDQD%HQLQ1LJHULDDQG&DPHURRQLQWKH*2*
UHJLRQUHIHUHQFH\HDU
7KHRYHUDOOQXWULHQWORDGVWRWKH(EULp/DJRRQIRUDUHHVWLPDWHGWRUDQJHEHWZHHQ
DQGW\IRU1ZLWKW\DVDEHVWJXHVVYDOXHDQGEHWZHHQDQGW\IRU
3ZLWKW\DVDEHVWJXHVVYDOXH$VIROORZVIURP)LJXUHDDQGFDWPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQLVEH\RQGGRXEWWKHVPDOOHVWEXWVWLOODQRQQHJOLJLEOHFRQWULEXWRUWRWKH1DQG3
EDODQFHRIWKH(EULpODJRRQ7KHGLVWULEXWLRQODQGUXQRIIGRPHVWLFORDGVYDULHVEHWZHHQ
DQG IRU 1 DQG EHWZHHQ DQG IRU 3 1XWULHQW ORDGV IURP ODQG UXQRII DQG
GRPHVWLF VRXUFHV DUH WKXV PRUH RU OHVV HTXDOO\ LPSRUWDQW DOWKRXJK WKH EDODQFH VHHPV WR EH
WRZDUGV WKH ILUVW )ROORZLQJ WKH DVVHVVPHQW SUHVHQWHG LQ VHFWLRQ DQG LW PD\ EH
FRQFOXGHG WKDW LQ WKH IXWXUH XUEDQ QXWULHQW ORDGV DUH OLNHO\ WR EHFRPH UHODWLYHO\ PRUH
LPSRUWDQWDVDUHVXOWRIWKHUDSLGXUEDQLVDWLRQRIWKHUHJLRQ
7KHVHUDQJHVUHSUHVHQWDEVROXWHPLQLPXPPD[LPXPYDOXHVIRUSROOXWLRQORDGVUDWKHUWKDQSUREDELOLW\UDQJHV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
:LWKUHVSHFWWR%2'ORDGVLWFDQEHFRQFOXGHGIURP)LJXUHEDQGGWKDWGRPHVWLF
DQG LQGXVWULDO VRXUFHV DUH ERWK LPSRUWDQW )RU WKH UHJLRQ DV D ZKROH )LJXUH G
GHPRQVWUDWHVWKDWLQGXVWULDO%2'ORDGVDUHPRVWSUREDEO\WKHODUJHVWFRQWULEXWRUZKLOHIRU
WKH VSHFLILF FDVH RI WKH (EULp /DJRRQ SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH E GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO
FRQWULEXWLRQVDUHZLWKLQWKHVDPHUDQJH
6XPPDU\RIFRQFOXVLRQVDQGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
7KH,:3$RIWKH*2*KDVUHVXOWHGLQDQXPEHURIILQGLQJVZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHHQYLURQPHQWDO
SROOXWLRQ FDXVHHIIHFW FKDLQ RI WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP $PRQJ WKH SULQFLSOH GULYLQJ IRUFHV RI
HQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQDUHILUVWRIDOOWKHKLVWRULFDOO\VWURQJKXPDQVHWWOHPHQWDQGHFRQRPLF
GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH FRDVWDO ]RQH DV ZHOO DV SRRU OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DQG WUDGLWLRQDOO\ ODUJH
KRXVHKROGVL]H$VDUHVXOWSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLQWKHFRDVWDOUHJLRQLVKLJK“DQGPRUH
VR LQ WKH ODUJH XUEDQ FHQWUHV ! )XUWKHUPRUH WKH FRDVWDO ]RQH RI WKH *2* QRZDGD\V
KDUERXUVEHWZHHQDQGRIWKHLQGXVWULDODFWLYLWLHVRIWKHFRXQWULHVERUGHULQJWKHJXOI
,QWHQVLYH DJULFXOWXUDO DFWLYLWLHV DQG H[SORLWDWLRQ RI PLQHUDO UHVRXUFHV LQFOXGLQJ RLO DQG JDV
WDNHVSODFHLQWKHFRDVWDO]RQH/DQGFOHDULQJDQGIRUHVWH[SORLWDWLRQKDVIXUWKHUPRUHGHSULYHG
WKHFRDVWDO]RQHRIPRVWQDWXUDOYHJHWDWLRQDQGDWPRVSKHULFHPLVVLRQVUHVXOWLQJIURPWUDIILF
LQGXVWU\ SRZHU SODQWV DQG KRXVHKROGV DUH KLJK $ QDWXUDO GULYLQJ IRUFH LV PRUHRYHU WKH
WKULYLQJRIIORDWLQJDTXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQLQWKHODJRRQVULYHUVDQGHVWXDULHV
,Q WHUPV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO SUHVVXUHV LQGXVWULDO DQG GRPHVWLF HIIOXHQWV WRJHWKHU UHVXOW LQ D
UHJLRQZLGHDQQXDO%2'ORDGRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\ELOOLRQW\LQWKH\HDU1LJHULDLVE\IDU
WKHODUJHVWFRQWULEXWRUDQHVWLPDWHG,QGXVWULDOVRXUFHVPRVWOLNHO\PDNHXSWKHODUJHU
SDUWRIWKLVORDGLQSDUWLFXODUWKHIRRGPDQXIDFWXULQJLQGXVWU\ZKLFKDFFRXQWVIRUDQHVWLPDWHG
RI LQGXVWULDO %2' ORDGV )RU WKHVSHFLILFVLWXDWLRQRIWKH(EULp/DJRRQWKHHVWLPDWHG
WRWDO%2'ORDGLVW\ZLWKGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOFRQWULEXWLRQVRIWKHVDPHRUGHURI
PDJQLWXGH
,Q WHUPV RI 1 DQG 3 ORDGV GRPHVWLF SRLQW VRXUFHV PDLQO\ $ELGMDQ DQG ODQG UXQRII DQG
OHDFKLQJ DUH ERWK PRUH RU OHVV HTXDOO\ LPSRUWDQW DOWKRXJK WKH EDODQFH VHHPV WR EH VOLJKWO\
WRZDUGV WKH ILUVW 2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKH QXWULHQW EDODQFH WRWDO ORDGV RI 1 DQG 3 LQWR WKH
ODJRRQ DUH HVWLPDWHG DW W\ “ DQG W\ “ UHVSHFWLYHO\ $WPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQLVVPDOOHVWEXWLVDQRQQHJOLJLEOHIDFWRULQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFH7KHSROOXWLRQORDGV
DUHH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHE\DQHVWLPDWHGIRUXUEDQ%2'DQGQXWULHQWORDGVIRU
ODQGUXQRIIDQGIRUDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQRYHUWKHSHULRG,QDGGLWLRQWKH
HIIHFWVRIIORDWLQJDTXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQDGGWRWKHVHDQWKURSRJHQLFSUHVVXUHVWKURXJKLQFUHDVHG
RUJDQLFPDWWHUORDGDVDUHVXOWRIWKHGHFRPSRVLWLRQRISODQWVDVZHOOWKURXJKGHFUHDVHGOLJKW
SHQHWUDWLRQDQGLQKLELWHGPL[LQJHIIHFWVLQWKHODJRRQ
&KDSWHU
7KHFRQVHTXHQWLDOHIIHFWVRQWKHZDWHUFRQGLWLRQVWDNHPDLQO\SODFHLQWKHLQVKRUHZDWHUVLQ
SDUWLFXODULQWHUPVRIHXWURSKLFDWLRQDQGSDUWO\GHR[\JHQDWLRQRIWKHODJRRQVHVWXDULHVDQG
ED\V 7KH H[DPSOH RI WKH (EULp ODJRRQV FOHDUO\ GHPRQVWUDWHV WKHVH HIIHFWV 8QGHU D µGR
QRWKLQJ¶VFHQDULRWKHDOUHDG\KLJKQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKH(EULpODJRRQDUHSURMHFWHGWR
IXUWKHU LQFUHDVH E\ DQ HVWLPDWHG RYHUWKHSHULRG7KLVHIIHFWZLOOEHPRVW
QRWDEOH LQ WKH FRQWLQHQWDO SDUWV RI WKH ODJRRQ ZKHUH WKH QXWULHQW EXGJHW LV GLFWDWHG E\ WKH
LQIOX[ RI QXWULHQWV IURP WKH ULYHUV &RPRp 0p DQG $JQpE\ ZLWK QXWULHQW ODQG UXQRII DQG
OHDFKLQJDVWKHNH\IDFWRU1XWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKH$ELGMDQVHJPHQWRIWKHODJRRQDUH
SULPDULO\GLFWDWHGE\WKHODUJHXUEDQQXWULHQWORDGVEXWWKHHIIHFWVRIWKLVORDGDUHFRQVLGHUDEO\
UHGXFHGDVDUHVXOWRIWKHFRQWLQXRXVH[FKDQJHRIRFHDQZDWHUVWKURXJKWKH9ULGL&DQDO$VLW
FRQFHUQVWKHRIIVKRUHZDWHUVWKHRFHDQQRLPSDFWVRQZDWHUTXDOLW\KDYHEHHQPHDVXUHGDV
\HW
7KHHYHQWXDOLPSDFWVRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQLQFOXGHGHFUHDVHGILVKUHVRXUFHVFKDQJHV
LQ ILVK VWRFN FRPSRVLWLRQ DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ ORVV RI DPHQLWLHV WRXULVPUHFUHDWLRQDO YDOXH DQG
ELRGLYHUVLW\GHFUHDVHGXVDELOLW\RIZDWHUIRUGRPHVWLFLQGXVWULDODQGDJULFXOWXUDOXVHDQGWKH
RFFXUUHQFH RI ZDWHUERUQH DQG LQVHFWERUQH GLVHDVHV 3RVVLEOH UHVSRQVH PHDVXUHV LQFOXGH
PHDVXUHVIRUWKHUHGXFWLRQRIERWKSRLQWDQGQRQSRLQWVRXUFHVRISROOXWLRQ$PRQJWKHVHDUH
FRQWURO PHDVXUHV IRU XUEDQ DQG GHPRJUDSKLF GHYHORSPHQWV DQG LQGXVWULDO SROOXWLRQ
VXVWDLQDEOH ODQGXVH SUDFWLFHV SURWHFWLRQ DQG UHHVWDEOLVKPHQW RI IRUHVW DQG RWKHU QDWXUDO
YHJHWDWLRQPDQJURYHVZKLFKDFWDVQDWXUDOQXWULHQWFDSWXUHUVVWLPXODWLRQRIPRUHDOWHUQDWLYH
DQG PRUH HIILFLHQW KRXVHKROG HQHUJ\ SURYLVLRQ DQG DEDWHPHQW RI WKH IORDWLQJ DTXDWLF
YHJHWDWLRQSUREOHP
8QFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVKDVGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWWKHUHDUHFRQVLGHUDEOHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQYROYHGLQWKH
DVVHVVPHQW%DVHGRQWKHDQDO\VLVLWLVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUVRIXQFHUWDLQW\
DUHWKHDSSOLHGµSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV¶DQGµQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQ¶UDWHVLQWKH(EULp/DJRRQ<HWWKH
DQDO\VLVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDDQGDQLQWHUQDOFRPSDULVRQRIWKHUHVXOWVRIVHYHUDOVWHSVLQWKH
'36,5 IUDPHZRUN KDYH UHGXFHG WKH PDUJLQV RI XQFHUWDLQW\ 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW
VHHPWKHUHIRUHMXVWLILHG1HYHUWKHOHVVLWLVUHFRPPHQGHGWRIXUWKHUµWUXWK¶WKHYDOLGLW\RIWKH
YDOXHV XVHG IRU FHUWDLQ SDUDPHWHUV DQG YDULDEOHV SUHIHUDEO\ WKURXJK DFWXDO PHDVXUHPHQW LQ
SDUWLFXODU DV LW FRQFHUQV GHQLWULILFDWLRQ DQG VHGLPHQWDWLRQ UDWHV LQ WKH ODJRRQ V\VWHPV )RU
IXWXUHUHVHDUFKLWLVIXUWKHUPRUHUHFRPPHQGHGWRSHUIRUPDGGLWLRQDOGHWDLOHGDVVHVVPHQWVDV
GRQHIRUWKH(EULpODJRRQFDVHIRURWKHUVHQVLWLYHDUHDVRIWKH*2*
5HIHUHQFHV
$FTXDK3D&RQWURORI,QGXVWULDO3ROOXWLRQ*KDQD
V([SHULHQFH,Q,EH$&2WHQJ<HERDK$$=DEL
6*$IRODEL'(GV,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDODQG/LYLQJ5HVRXUFHV0DQDJHPHQWLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD7KH
/DUJH0DULQH(FRV\VWHP$SSURDFK&6,53UHVV$FFUD
$FTXDK3E*KDQD,QGXVWULDO3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW81,'2*()*2*/0(3URMHFW
$FFUD
$GLQJUD $$ $UIL 5 2UJDQLF DQG %DFWHULDO 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH (EULp ODJRRQ &{WH G¶ ,YRLUH 0DULQH
3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ
$IILDQ.%DVHGH'RQQpHVVXUOD3ROOXWLRQGHOD/DJXQH(EULp7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW81,'2*()*2*
/0(3URMHFW$ELGMDQ
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
$KQ+-DPHV5<2XWOLHU'HWHFWLRQLQ3KRVSKRURXV'U\'HSRVLWLRQ5DWHV0HDVXUHGLQ6RXWK)ORULGD
$WPRVSKHULF(QYLURQPHQW
$MDR ($ 7KH ,QIOXHQFH RI 'RPHVWLF DQG ,QGXVWULDO (IIOXHQWV RQ 3RSXODWLRQV RI 6HVVLOH DQG %HQWKLF
2UJDQLVPVLQ/DJRV/DJRRQ3K'7KHVLV8QLYHUVLW\RI,EDGDQ1LJHULD
$MDR($5HYLHZRIWKH6WDWHRI3ROOXWLRQRI/DJRV/DJRRQ1,2057HFKQ3DSHU1R1,205
/DJRV
$MDR($$QXULJZR6$VVHVVPHQWRI/DQGEDVHG6RXUFHVRI3ROOXWLRQLQ1LJHULD81,'2*()*2*
/0(3URMHFW$ELGMDQ
$MD\L727KH6WDWXVRI0DULQH)LVKHULHV5HVRXUFHVRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD,Q3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK
6HVVLRQRI)$2&(&$)$FFUD*KDQD2FWREHU
$OEDUHW -- &KDUOHV 'RPLQLTXH ( 2EVHUYDWLRQV G¶XQH 7DLOOH j OD 3UHPLqUH 0kWXUDWLRQ 6H[XHOOH
([FHSWLRQHOOHPHQW)DLEOHFKH](WKPDORVD)UXLWEULDWD%RZELFKGDQVXQH%DLH3ROOXpHGHOD/DJXQH(EULp&{WH
G¶,YRLUH'RFXPHQW6FLHQWLILFGX&HQWUHGH5HFKHUFKH2FpDQRORJLTXHG¶$ELGMDQ
$UIL5$JQqVH-)%RXY\0.DED1.RXDVVL(3DJDQR06DLQW-HDQ/6DQNDUp<0pWRQJR%6
3URWHFWLRQ GH O
(QYLURQQHPHQW G
$ELGMDQ 3URJUDPPH GH 6XLYL GH OD 4XDOLWp GHV (DX[ /DJXQDLUHV HW
0DULQHV7H[WHHW)LJXUHV&52$ELGMDQ
$ZREDMR6$$QDO\VLVRI2LO6SLOO,QFLGHQWVLQ1LJHULD,Q3URFHHGLQJVRID6HPLQDURQWKH
3HWUROHXP,QGXVWU\DQGWKH1LJHULDQ(QYLURQPHQW:DUUL1LJHULD1RY
$ZRVLND/)$Ep-&RDVWDO&LUFXODWLRQLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD,Q,EH$&=DEL6*(GV6WDWHRI
WKH&RDVWDODQG0DULQH(QYLURQPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD&('$3UHVV&RWRQRX
$ZRVLND/),EH$&*XOIRI*XLQHD&RDVWDO=RQHDQG6WUDWHJLHVIRU,QWHJUDWHG0DQDJHPHQW3ODQ,Q
,EH$&=DEL6*(GV6WDWHRIWKH&RDVWDODQG0DULQH(QYLURQPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD&('$3UHVV
&RWRQRX
$ZRVLND/),EH&(1ZDQNZR(2%DORJXQ$$GHNR\D($3K\VLFDODQG*HRORJLFDO)DFWRUV
$IIHFWLQJWKH7UDQVSRUW'LVSHUVLRQDQG'HSRVLWLRQRI3ROOXWDQWVLQWKH/DJRV/DJRRQ3URJUHVV5HSRUW,2&
81(6&23DULV
%LQH\&$$VVHVVPHQWRI:DWHU$LUDQG/DQG3ROOXWLRQ6RXUFHVLQ$FFUD7HPD0HWURSROLWDQ$UHD
*KDQD:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQL]DWLRQ5HJLRQDO2IILFHIRU$IULFD
%RRWVPD +$ %RRWVPD 0- +HFN\ 5( 7KH &KHPLFDO &RPSRVLWLRQ RI 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ DQG LWV
6LJQLILFDQFHWRWKH1XWULHQW%XGJHWRI/DNH0DODZL3HUVRQDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQ
%RXZPDQ $) /RQJWHUP 6FHQDULRV RI /LYHVWRFNFURSODQG 8VH ,QWHUDFWLRQV IRU WKH $VVHVVPHQW RI
(QYLURQPHQWDO ,QGLFDWRUV LQ 'HYHORSLQJ &RXQWULHV /DQG DQG :DWHU %XOOHWLQ 5RPH )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUDO
2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV
%URFKH-3HVFKHW-/(QTXrWHVXUOHV3ROOXWLRQV$FWXHOOHVHW3RWHQWLHOOHVHQ&{WHG¶,YRLUH,Q'XIRXU
3&KDQWUDLQH-0(GV5pVHDX1DWLRQDOG¶2EVHUYDWLRQGHOD4XDOLWpGHV(DX[0DULQHVHW/DJXQDLUHVHQ&{WH
G¶,YRLUH2UVWURPHW0LQLVWqUHGHO¶(QYLURQQHPHQW3DULV
&DUDFR1)&ROH--+XPDQ,PSDFWRQ1LWUDWH([SRUWDQ$QDO\VLV8VLQJ0DMRU:RUOG5LYHUV$PELR
&%1&HQWUDO%DQNRI1LJHULD$QQXDO5HSRUWDQG6WDWHPHQWRI$FFRXQWVIRUWKH<HDU(QGHGVW'HF
&%1/DJRV
&KDQWUDLQH-0'XIRXU3K'XUDQG-5,PSDFWRIDGMDFHQWV\VWHPVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWRIWKH(EULp
ODJRRQ,YRU\&RDVW,Q&KDR1/DQG.LUE\6PLWK:(GV3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO6\PSRVLXPRQ
WKH8WLOL]DWLRQRI&RDVWDO(FRV\VWHPV5LR*UDQGH1RYHPEHU
&KLNZHQGX&&2LO3URGXFWLRQDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQLQ1LJHULD
V&RDVWDO$UHDV,Q,EH$&
2WHQJ<HERDK$$=DEL6*$IRODEL'(GV,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDODQG/LYLQJ5HVRXUFHV0DQDJHPHQW
LQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD7KH/DUJH0DULQH(FRV\VWHP$SSURDFK&6,53UHVV$FFUD
'RVVR0'XFKDVVLQ0/RPEDUGR$.RQp0(GRK9&DV6SRUDGLTXHVRX'pEXWG¶XQH1RXYHOOH
(SLGpPLHGH&KROpUD"%XOOHWLQGHOD6RFLpWpGH3DWKRORJLH([RWLTXH
'XFKDVVLQ0&&OHUF$%RXUJHDGH$+RVRWWR076XUYLHGX9LEULRQ&KROpULTXH(/725GDQV
OHV(DX[GHOD/DJXQHG¶$ELGMDQ%XOOHWLQGHOD6RFLpWpGH3DWKRORJLH([RWLTXH
&KDSWHU
'XIRXU 3 /HV )URQWLqUHV 1DWXUHOOHV HW +XPDLQHV GX 6\VWqPH /DJXQDLUH (EULp ,QFLGHQFHV VXU
O¶+\GURFOLPDW+\GURELRORJ\
'XIRXU3'X%LRWRSHjOD%LRFpQRVH,Q'XUDQG-5(FRXWLQ-0$UIL5(GV(QYLURQQHPHQWHW
5HVVRXUFHV$TXDWLTXHVGH&{WHG¶,YRLUH256720(GLWLRQV3DULV
'XIRXU3/HPDVVRQ/&UHPRX[-/&RQWU{OH1XWULWLIGHOD%LRPDVVHGX6HVWLRQGDQVXQH/DJXQH
7URSLFDOHGH&{WHG¶,YRLUH,,9DULDWLRQV*pRJUDSKLTXHVHW6DLVRQQLqUHV-RXUQDORI([SHULPHQWDO0DULQH%LRORJ\
DQG(FRORORJ\
'XIRXU3K&KDQWUDLQH-0'XUDQG-5,PSDFWRI0DQRQWKH(EULp/DJRRQ(FRV\VWHP,YRU\&RDVW
,Q&KDR1/.LUE\6PLWK:(GV3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO6\PSRVLXPRQWKH8WLOL]DWLRQRI&RDVWDO
(FRV\VWHPV(FRV\VWHPV5LR*UDQGH1RYHPEHU
'XUDQG -5 *XLUDO ' +\GURFOLPDW HW +\GURFKLPLH ,Q 'XUDQG -5 (FRXWLQ -0 $UIL 5 (GV
(QYLURQQHPHQWHW5HVVRXUFHV$TXDWLTXHVGH&{WHG¶,YRLUH256720(GLWLRQV3DULV
'XIRXU3.RXDVVL$0/DQXVVH$/HV3ROOXWLRQV,Q'XUDQG-5(FRXWLQ-0$UIL5(GV
(QYLURQQHPHQW HW 5HVVRXUFHV $TXDWLTXHV GH &{WH G
,YRLUH 7RPH ,, /HV 0LOLHX[ /DJXQDLUHV 256720
(GLWLRQV)UDQFH
(FRQRPSRXOXV$3$VVHVVPHQWRI6RXUFHVRI$LU:DWHUDQG/DQG3ROOXWLRQ3DUWRQH5DSLG,QYHQWRU\
7HFKQLTXHVLQ(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQ:+2*HQHYD
(QRK (3 0EHQNXP 7) 0ERPH ,/ )RODFN - 7KH 6WDWH RI &DPHURRQ
V &RDVWDO DQG 0DULQH
(QYLURQPHQW,Q,EH$&=DEL6*(GV6WDWHRIWKH&RDVWDODQG0DULQH(QYLURQPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
&('$3UHVV&RWRQRX
(NOXQG7-0F'RZHOO:+6HDVRQDO9DULDWLRQRI7URSLFDO3UHFLSLWDWLRQ&KHPLVWU\/D6HOYD&RVWD
5LFD$WPRVSKHULF(QYLURQPHQW
(ULNVVRQ(&RPSRVLWLRQRI$WPRVSKHULF3UHFLSLWDWLRQ,7HOOXV
(WLHQ1(WDWGHOD3ROOXWLRQGHV(DX[&{WLqUHV,YRLULHQQHV7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW81,'2*()*2*/0(
3URMHFW$ELGMDQ
)HGHUDO(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ$JHQF\5HSXEOLFRI1LJHULD&RDVWDO3URILOHRI1LJHULD&('$3UHVV
&RWRQRX
)0:+)HGHUDO0LQLVWU\RI:RUNVDQG+RXVLQJ7KH6WDWHRIWKH(QYLURQPHQWLQ1LJHULD0RQRJUDSK
6HULHV1R,QGXVWULDO:DVWHPDQDJHPHQW/DJRV
*DOORZD\ -1 /LNHQV *( .HHQH :& 0LOOHU -0 7KH &RPSRVLWLRQ RI 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ LQ 5HPRWH
$UHDVRIWKH:RUOG-RXUQDORI*HRSK\VLFDO5HVHDUFK±
*(6$03 ,02)$281(6&2:02:+2,$($8181(3 -RLQW *URXS RI ([SHUWV RQ WKH 6FLHQWLILF
$VSHFWVRIPDULQH3ROOXWLRQ5HYLHZRI3RWHQWLDOO\+DUPIXOO6XEVWDQFHV±&DGPLXP/HDGDQG7LQ5HS
6WXG*(6$0381(35H6H6HDV5HS6WXG
*(6$03 ,02)$281(6&2:02:+2,$($8181(3 -RLQW *URXS RI ([SHUWV RQ WKH 6FLHQWLILF
$VSHFWV RI PDULQH 3ROOXWLRQ 5HYLHZ RI 3RWHQWLDOO\ +DUPIXOO 6XEVWDQFHV ± $UVHQLF 0HUFXU\ DQG
6HOHQLXP5HS6WXG*(6$0381(35H6H6HDV5HS6WXG
*RUGRQ&7KH6WDWHRIWKH&RDVWDODQG0DULQH(QYLURQPHQWRI*KDQD,Q,EH$&=DEL6*(GV
6WDWHRIWKH&RDVWDODQG0DULQH(QYLURQPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD&('$3UHVV&RWRQRX
*XLUDO ' 'HYHQLU GH OD 0DWLqUH 2UJDQLTXH 3DUWLFXOLqUH GDQV XQ 0LOLHX (XWURSKH 7URSLFDO 5HYXH GH
O¶+\GURELROyJLH7URSLFDOH
*XLUDO'$UIL57RUUHWRQ-30pFDQLVPHVHW,QFLGHQFHV(FRORJLTXHVGHO¶+RPRJpQpLVDWLRQ$QQXHOOH
GDQVXQ0LOLHX(XWURSKH6WUDWLILp+\GURELRORJLD
+DUGPDQ0RXQWIRUG 1- .RUDQJWHQJ .$ 3ULFH $5* 7KH *XOI RI *XLQHD /DUJH 0DULQH
(FRV\VWHP ,Q &5& 6KHSSDUG 6HDV DW WKH 0LOOHQLXP $Q (QYLURQPHQWDO (YDOXDWLRQ 9RO 3HUJDPRQ
(OVHYLHU
+REEHOHQ+30$VVHVVPHQWRI'RPHVWLF/LTXLG:DVWH5XQRII'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD06F7KHVLV
(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
+RZDUWK5:%LOOHQ*6ZDQH\'7RZQVHQG$-DZRUVNL1'RZQLQJ-$(OPJUHQ5&DUDFR1
/DMWKD.5HJLRQDO1LWURJHQ%XGJHWVDQG5LYHULQH1DQG3IOX[HVIRUWKH'UDLQDJHVWRWKH1RUWK$WODQWLF
2FHDQ1DWXUDODQGKXPDQLQIOXHQFHV%LRJHRFKHPLVWU\
,EH $& ([SHULHQFH IURP 0DULQH 3ROOXWLRQ 0RQLWRULQJ LQ :HVW DQG &HQWUDO $IULFD 6\PSRVLXP RQ
*OREDO0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ6L[WK6HVVLRQRIWKH,2&6FLHQWLILF&RPPLWWHHRQWKH*OREDO,QYHVWLJDWLRQRI3ROOXWLRQ
LQWKHPDULQH(QYLURQPHQW3DULV6HSWHPEHU
,EH$&=DEL6*6WDWHRIWKH&RDVWDODQG0DULQH(QYLURQPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD&('$3UHVV
&RWRQRX
,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH,3&&(PLVVLRQ6FHQDULRV&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
&DPEULGJH
,ZXML 6 /HV ,QIHFWLRQV ,QWHVWLQDOHV j 6DOPRQHOORV HQ =RQH /DJXQDLUH 5XUDOH 7KqVH GH 0pGHFLQH
$ELGMDQ1R
-XQDLG .6$ ,QGXVWULDO 3ROOXWLRQ 3UREOHPV DQG (IIHFWV RQ +HDOWK RI WKH 0DULQH (QYLURQPHQW ,Q
6FKHUHQ3$(G3URFHHGLQJVRID:RUNVKRSRQ(QYLURQPHQWDOO\6XVWDLQDEOH,QGXVWULDO'HYHORSPHQWLQWKH
*XOIRI*XLQHD5HJLRQ-DQXDU\$FFUD*KDQD81,'2*()*2*/0(3URMHFW$ELGMDQ
.DNXOX6(2VLEDQMR2$MDL627UDFH0HWDO&RQWHQWRI)LVKDQG6KHOOILVKHVRIWKH1LJHU'HOWD
$UHDRI1LJHULD(QYLURQPHQW,QWHUQDWLRQDO
.OHLQ - :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH $FFUD7HPD 0HWURSROLWDQ $UHD 6RXUFHV DQG ,PSDFWV 06F 7KHVLV
(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
.RXDGLR,7UHIU\-+6HGLPHQW7UDFH0HWDOV&RQWDPLQDWLRQLQ&{WHG¶,YRLUH:HVW$IULFD:DWHU$LU
DQG6RLO3ROOXWLRQ
.RXDPp.0RUHDX.7LPLWp.'LHNRXDGLR.$VVL$GRX-/D)LqYUH7\SKRLGHGHO¶(QIDQWj
$ELGMDQ5pYXH0pGLFDO'H&{WHG¶,YRLUH
.RXDVVL $0 *XLUDO ' 'RVVR 0 9DWLDWLRQV 6DLVRQQLqUHV GH OD &RQWDPLQDWLRQ 0LFURELHQQH GH OD
=RQH 8UEDLQH G¶XQH /DJXQH 7URSLFDOH (VWXDULHQQH &DV GH OD YLOOH G¶$ELGMDQ &{WH G¶,YRLUH 5HYXH GH
O¶+\GURELRORJLH7URSLFDOH
.RXDVVL$0.DED10pWRQJR%6/DQGEDVHG6RXUFHVRI3ROOXWLRQDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO4XDOLW\RI
WKH(EULp/DJRRQ:DWHUV0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ
.RXDVVL $0 1¶*RUDQ < .RQDQ - $PRQ .RWKLDV -% 0HWRQJR 6 $EH - (WDW GH
O¶(QYLURQQHPHQW0DULQHW&RWLHUGHOD&{WHG¶,YRLUH,Q,EH$&DQG=DEL6*(GV6WDWHRIWKH&RDVWDODQG
0DULQH(QYLURQPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD81,'2,2&&HGD3UHVV&RWRQRX%HQLQ
.UHLOHPDQ*--%RXZPDQ$)&RPSXWLQJ/DQG8VH(PLVVLRQVRI*UHHQKRXVH*DVHV:DWHU$LUDQG
6RLO3ROOXWLRQ±
.URH]H & 6HLW]LQJHU 63 1LWURJHQ ,QSXWV WR 5LYHUV (VWXDULHV DQG &RQWLQHQWDO 6KHOYHV DQG 5HODWHG
1LWURXV2[LGH(PLVVLRQVLQDQGD*OREDO0RGHO1XWULHQW&\FOLQJLQ$JURHFRV\VWHPV±
.XVHPLMX . 1ZDQNZR ', 2\HEDQML 02 $ 6XUYH\ RI WKH 3K\VLFR&KHPLFDO 3DUDPHWHUV DQG
3ODQFWRQRI/DJRV/DJRRQ1LJHULD81,'2*()*2*/0(3URMHFW/DJRV
/DQXVVH$*XLUDO'6XLYL$QQXHOGHOD&RQWDPLQDWLRQ%DWpULHQQHHW9LUDOHGHV(DX[HWGHV6pGLPHQWV
/DJXQDLUHVDX1LYHDXG¶$ELGMDQ2FpDQLV
/HPDVVRQ/3DJqV-$SSRUWVGH3KRVSKRUHHWG¶$]RWHSDUOD3OXLHHQ=RQH7URSLFDOH&{WHG¶,YRLUH
5HYXHGHO¶+\GURELRORJLH7URSLFDOH
/HZLV :0 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ &KHPLVWU\ DQG 1XWULHQW /RDGLQJ E\ 3UHFLSLWDWLRQ LQ D 7URSLFDO :DWHUVKHG
:DWHU5HVRXUFHV5HVHDUFK±
0DUFKDQG 0 0DUWLQ -/ 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ GH OD 3ROOXWLRQ &KLPLTXH +\GURFDUEXUHV 2UJDQRFKORUpV
0pWDX[GDQVOD/DJXQHG¶$ELGMDQ&{WHG¶,YRLUHSDUO¶(WXGHGHV6HGLPHQWV2FpDQRJUDSK\7URSLFDO
0pWRQJR%6&RQFHQWUDWLRQVHQ0pWDX[7R[LTXHVFKH]&UDVVRVWUHD*DVDU+XLWUHGH0DJURYHHQ=RQH
8UEDLQH/DJXQDLUHG¶$ELGMDQ&{WHG¶,YRLUH-RXUQDO,YRLULHQGHO¶2FpDQRORJLHHW/LPQRORORJLHG¶$ELGMDQ
&KDSWHU
0pWRQJR%6(YDOXDWLRQ5DSLGHGHV6RXUFHVGH3ROOXWLRQ$WPRVSKHULTXH+\GULTXHHW7HOOXULTXHHQ
&{WHG
,YRLUH7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW81,'2*()*2*/0(3URMHFW$ELGMDQ
0pWRQJR%66DQNDUp<7HQHXUHQ0pWDX[/RXUGVGHV2UJDQHVFKH]OH&UDEH&RPHVWLEOH&DOOLQHFWHV
$PQLFROD'HFDSRGH3RUWXQLGHDHQ/DJXQH(EULp&{WHG¶,YRLUH$JURQRPLH$IULFDLQH
0pWRQJR%6.RXDPHQDQ.)&RQFHQWUDWLRQVHQ+JGDQVOHV0XVFOHVGH7KRQV$OEDFRUHV7KXQQHV
$OEDFDUHVGX*ROIHGH*XLQpH-RXUQDO,YRLULHQGHO¶2FpDQRORJLHHW/LPQRORORJLHG¶$ELGMDQ
0pWRQJR %6 .RXDVVL $0 .DED 1 (YDOXDWLRQ 4XDQWLWDWLYH HW 4XDOLWDWLYH GHV (IIOXHQWV HW GH
3ROOXHQWV&DVGHOD&{WHG¶,YRLUHHWGHOD9LOOHG¶$ELGMDQ&HQWUHGH5HFKHUFKHV2FpDQRORJLTXHV$ELGMDQ&{WH
G¶,YRLUH
0H\EHFN 0 &DUERQ 1LWURJHQ DQG 3KRVSKRURXV 7UDQVSRUW E\ :RUOG 5LYHUV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI
6FLHQFH
0RUDOHV -$ $OERUQR] $ 6RFRUUR ( 0RULOOR $ $Q (VWLPDWLRQ RI WKH 1LWURJHQ DQG 3KRVSRURXV
/RDGLQJE\:HW'HSRVLWLRQRYHU/DNH0DUDFDLER9HQH]XHOD:DWHU$LUDQG6RLO3ROOXWLRQ
1('(&2$VVDLQLVVHPHQWHW'UDLQDJHGHOD9LOOHG¶$ELGMDQ&{WHG¶,YRLUH
1L[RQ 6: $PPHUPDQ -: $WNLQVRQ /3 %HURXQVN\ 90 %LOOHQ * %RLFRXUW :& %D\WRQ :5
&KXUFK70'LWRUR'0(OPJUHQ5*DUEHU-+*LEOLQ$(-DKQNH5$2ZHQV1-33LOVRQ0(4
6HLW]LQJHU 63 7KH )DWH RI 1LWURJHQ DQG 3KRVSKRURXV DW WKH /DQGVHD 0DUJLQ RI WKH 1RUWK $WODQWLF
&RDVW%LRJHRFKHPLVWU\
2GX($,PHYERUH$0(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQLQWKH1LJHU'HOWD7KH0DQJURYH(FRV\VWHPRIWKH
1LJHU 'HOWD ,Q 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6HPLQDU RQ WKH 3HWUROHXP ,QGXVWU\ DQG WKH 1LJHULDQ
(QYLURQPHQW/DJRV
2MR 22 %RWWRP 6HGLPHQWV DV ,QGLFDWRUV RI &KHPLFDO 3ROOXWLRQ LQ /HNNL /DJRRQ 06F 7KHVLV
8QLYHUVLW\RI,EDGDQ1LJHULD
2NRQQD6,$6XUYH\RI3HVWLFLGH5HVLGXHVLQVRPH1LJHULDQ5LYHU:DWHUVDQG6HGLPHQWV06F7KHVLV
8QLYHUVLW\RI,EDGDQ1LJHULD
2NR\H %&2 D +HDY\ 0HWDOV DQG 2UJDQLVPV LQ WKH /DJRV /DJRRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI
(QYLURQPHQWDO6WXGLHV
2NR\H %&2 E 1XWULHQWV DQG 6HOHFWHG &KHPLFDO $QDO\VLV LQ WKH /DJRV /DJRRQ 6XUIDFH :DWHUV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO6WXGLHV
2NR\H%&2$IRODEL$$MDR$+HDY\0HWDOVLQ/DJRV/DJRRQ6HGLPHQWV,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI
(QYLURQPHQWDO6WXGLHV
2\HZR(23ROOXWLRQ0RQLWRULQJLQWKH/DJRV/DJRRQ1LJHULD7HFKQLFDO5HSRUW81,'2*()*2*
/0(3URMHFW/DJRV
3DJqV-(WXGHGHOD3ROOXWLRQ%DFWpULHQQHHQ/DJXQH(EULp'RFXPHQW6FLHQWLILFGX&HQWUHGH5HFKHUFKH
2FpDQRJUDSKLTXHG¶$ELGMDQ9,
3DJqV-&LWHDX-/D3ROOXWLRQ%DFWpULHQQHGHOD/DJXQHHWGHOD0HU$XWRXUG¶$ELGMDQ'RFXPHQW
6FLHQWLILFGX&HQWUHGH5HFKHUFKH2FpDQRJUDSKLTXHG¶$ELGMDQ
3HLHUOV%/&DUDFR1)3DFH0/&ROH--+XPDQ,QIOXHQFHRQ5LYHU1LWURJHQ1DWXUH±
3RRU13ULEEOH5*UHHQLQJ+'LUHFW:HWDQG'U\'HSRVLWLRQRI$PPRQLD1LWULF$FLG$PPRQLXP
DQG1LWUDWHWRWKH7DPSD%D\(VWXDU\)/86$$WPRVSKHULF(QYLURQPHQW
3RUWPDQQ-(%LQH\&,EH$&=DEL66WDWHRIWKH0DULQH(QYLURQPHQWLQWKH:HVWDQG&HQWUDO
$IULFDQ5HJLRQ81(35HJLRQDO6HDV5HSRUWVDQG6WXGLHVQR
3RZHOO&%(FRORJLFDO(IIHFWVRI+XPDQ$FWLYLWLHVRQWKH9DOXHDQG5HVRXUFHVRI1LJHULDQ:HWODQGV
,Q3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH:RUNVKRSRQ1LJHULDQ:HWODQGV0DQDQGWKH%LRVSKHUH81(6&2
5HLPROG5-'DLEHU)&(XWURSKLFDWLRQRI(VWXDULQH$UHDVE\5DLQ:DWHU&KHVDSHDNH6FLHQFH
3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
5R\DO +DVNRQLQJ 7HFKQLFDO)HDVLELOLW\5HSRUW3ULYDWLVDWLRQRI/DJRV6WDWH:DWHU&RUSRUDWLRQ5R\DO
+DVNRQLQJ1LMPHJHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV
6DHQJHU 3 6DQNDUp < 3HUU\ 7 (IIHFWV RI 3ROOXWLRQ DQG 2YHUFXWWLQJ RQ 0DQJURYHV 81,'2*()
*2*/0(3URMHFW$ELGMDQ
6FKHUHQ 3$ %RVERRP -& 1MDX .1 :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH &DWFKPHQW $UHD RI /DNH 9LFWRULD
7DQ]DQLD(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
6FKHUHQ 3$ %RVERRP -& 1MDX .1 /HPPHQV $0 $VVHVVPHQW RI :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH
&DWFKPHQW$UHDRI/DNH9LFWRULD-RXUQDORI(DVWHUQ$IULFDQ5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW
6FKHUHQ 3$ =DQWLQJ +$ /HPPHQV $0 (VWLPDWLRQ RI :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD
$SSOLFDWLRQDQG(ODERUDWLRQRIWKH5DSLG$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGRORJ\-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW
6FKHUHQ 3$ ,EH $& (QYLURQPHQWDO 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD ± $ 5HJLRQDO $SSURDFK ,Q
0F*ODGH-0&XUU\3.RUDQJWHQJ.$+DUGPDQ0RXQWIRUG1-(GV7KH*XOIRI*XLQHD/DUJH0DULQH
(FRV\VWHP (QYLURQPHQWDO )RUFLQJ 6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW RI 0DULQH 5HVRXUFHV (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH
3XEOLVKHUVWKH1HWKHUODQGV
6FKHUHQ3$,EH$&-DQVVHQ)-/HPPHQV$0D(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
$5HJLRQDO$SSURDFK0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ
6FKHUHQ 3$ .URH]H & -DQVVHQ )- +RUGLMN / 3WDVLQVNL .- E ,QWHJUDWHG :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ
$VVHVVPHQWRIWKH(EULp/DJRRQ&{WHG¶,YRLUH:HVW$IULFDVXEPLWWHGWR-RXUQDORI0DULQH6\VWHPV
6HLW]LQJHU 63 'HQLWULILFDWLRQ LQ )UHVKZDWHU DQG &RDVWDO 0DULQH (FRV\VWHPV (FRORJLFDO DQG
*HRFKHPLFDO6LJQLILFDQFH/LPQRORJ\DQG2FHDQRJUDSK\
6HLW]LQJHU63'HQLWULILFDWLRQLQ$TXDWLF6HGLPHQWV,Q5HYVEHFK136RUHQVHQ-(GV'HQLWULIDWLRQ
LQ6RLODQG6HGLPHQWV3OHQXP1HZ<RUN
6HLW]LQJHU63.URH]H&*OREDO'LVWULEXWLRQRI1LWURXV2[LGH3URGXFWLRQDQG1,QSXWVLQ)UHVKZDWHU
DQG&RDVWDO0DULQH(FRV\VWHPV*OREDO%LRJHRFKHPLFDO&\FOHV±
6KHUPDQ.(PHUJLQJ7KHRUHWLFDO%DVLVIRU0RQLWRULQJWKH&KDQJLQJ6WDWHV+HDOWKRI/DUJH0DULQH
(FRV\VWHPV 6XPPDU\ 5HSRUW RI 7ZR :RUNVKRSV $SULO 1DWLRQDO 0DULQH )LVKHULHV 6HUYLFH
1DUUDJDQVHWW 5KRGH ,VODQG DQG -XO\ &RUQHOO 8QLYHUVLW\ ,WKDFD 1HZ <RUN 12$$ 7HFKQLFDO
0HPRLUHV10)6)1(&
6KHUPDQ . 7KH *XOI RI *XLQHD DQG *OREDO 'HYHORSPHQWV DQG 6XVWDLQDELOLW\ RI /DUJH 0DULQH
(FRV\VWHPV ,Q ,EH $& 2WHQJ<HERDK $$ =DEL 6* $IRODEL ' (GV ,QWHJUDWHG (QYLURQPHQWDO DQG
/LYLQJ 5HVRXUFHV 0DQDJHPHQW LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD 7KH /DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHP $SSURDFK &6,5 3UHVV
$FFUD*KDQD
6KHUPDQ . 6RORZ $5 7KH &KDQJLQJ 6WDWHV DQG +HDOWK RI D /DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHP &0/
6HVVLRQ
6KHUPDQ . $OH[DQGHU /0 *ROG %' /DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHPV 6WUHVV 0LWLJDWLRQ DQG
6XVWDLQDELOLW\$$$63UHVV:DVKLQJWRQ'&
7KRPDQQ590XHOOHU-$3ULQFLSOHVRI6XUIDFH:DWHU4XDOLW\0RGHOOLQJDQG&RQWURO+DUSHU5RZ
3XEOLVKHUV1HZ<RUN
7KRUQWRQ,1XWULHQW&RQWHQWRI5DLQZDWHURQWKH*DPELDV1DWXUH
9ROOHQZHLGHU 5$ $GYDQFHV LQ 'HILQLQJ &ULWLFDO /RDGLQJ /HYHOV IRU 3KRVSKRURXV LQ /DNH
(XWURSKLFDWLRQ0HPVW,WDO,GURELRO
:RUOG%DQN:RUOG'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV
:RUOG 5HVRXUFHV ,QVWLWXWH :RUOG 5HVRXUFHV $ JXLGH WR WKH *OREDO (QYLURQPHQW :RUOG
5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH81(381'3
&KDSWHU
&KDSWHU
)LQDO$QDO\VLVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
)LQDODQDO\VLVRIUHVXOWVDQGH[SHULHQFHV
&KDSWHU SUHVHQWV DQ RYHUDOO DQDO\VLV RI WKH UHVXOWV DQG H[SHULHQFHV IURP WKH UHVHDUFK
SUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLV7KHFKDSWHULVGLYLGHGLQWRWZRSDUWV6HFWLRQIRFXVHVRQWKHUHVXOWV
IURPWKHWZRFDVHVWXGLHVDQGWKHDFKLHYHPHQWRIWKHFDVHVWXG\OHYHOREMHFWLYHRIWKLVUHVHDUFK
,PSRUWDQW OHVVRQV OHDUQW IURP WKH WZR FDVHV DUH VXPPDUL]HG 6HFWLRQ UHIOHFWV XSRQ WKH
DFKLHYHPHQWRIWKHRYHUDOOUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYHDQGSURYLGHVDQDQDO\VLVRIWKHVWUHQJWKVDQG
WKH ZHDNQHVVHV RI WKH FRQFHSWXDO DQG PHWKRGRORJLFDO IUDPHZRUN GHYHORSHG DV SDUW RI WKLV
UHVHDUFK)XUWKHUPRUHUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVDUHPDGHIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFK
)LQDODQDO\VLVRIWKHUHVHDUFKFDVHV
$FFRPSOLVKPHQWRIWKHFDVHVWXG\OHYHOREMHFWLYH
7KHFHQWUDOREMHFWLYHGHILQHGIRUWKHWZRFDVHVWXGLHVZDV
WRGHYHORSDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIZDWHU
SROOXWLRQFRQWUROPHDVXUHVRQWKHEDVLVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
7KH,:3$FDVHVWXGLHVSUHVHQWHGLQFKDSWHUIRU/DNH9LFWRULDDQGFKDSWHUIRUWKH*XOIRI
*XLQHD OD\ RXW WKH FDXVHV DQG HIIHFWV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO SROOXWLRQ LQ WKH IRUP RI D '36,5
IUDPHZRUN 6WHSV , DQG ,, RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW Š WKH µGULYLQJ IRUFHV¶ WR µSUHVVXUHV¶ DQG WKH
µSUHVVXUHV¶WRµVWDWH¶UHODWLRQVKLSVUHVSHFWLYHO\ŠDUHSUHVHQWHGDVDTXDQWLWDWLYHPRGHO6WHS
,,,ŠWKHµVWDWH¶WRµLPSDFW¶UHODWLRQVKLSŠLVDVVHVVHGRQO\TXDOLWDWLYHO\
2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKH WKXV HVWDEOLVKHG '36,5 IUDPHZRUN WKH NH\ IRUFLQJ IXQFWLRQV WKURXJK
ZKLFKZDWHUSROOXWLRQPD\EHPDQDJHGZHUHLGHQWLILHGDQGDVVHVVHGLQWHUPVRIWKHLUSDUWLQ
WKHSROOXWLRQSUREOHP)XUWKHUDVVHVVPHQWLGHQWLILHGDOWHUQDWLYHUHVSRQVHRSWLRQVZKLFKZHUH
VXEVHTXHQWO\ FRPSDUHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH HVWDEOLVKHG TXDQWLWDWLYH PRGHO HTXDWLRQV DQG
TXDOLWDWLYHLQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSVZLWKLQWKHHVWDEOLVKHG'36,5IUDPHZRUN,QWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
FDVHWKLVHYDOXDWLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHVZDVH[HFXWHGE\PHDQVRIVFHQDULRDQDO\VLV,QWKH/DNH
9LFWRULD FDVH WKLV HYDOXDWLRQ ZDV OHVV IRUPDOLVHG DQG H[HFXWHG RQ D PRUH FRQFHSWXDO OHYHO
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWZHUHLGHQWLILHGDQGDQDO\VHGDQGWKHUHVXOWVRIWKH,:3$DQG
UHFRPPHQGHGUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGZLWKLQWKHOLJKWRIWKHVHXQFHUWDLQWLHV
)LQDO$QDO\VLVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
7KHDSSURDFKIROORZHGKDVOHGWRFRQFUHWHUHVXOWVZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHFDXVHV
DQG HIIHFWV RI WKH ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD DQG WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD DV ZHOO DV RI
SRVVLEOHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV,WPD\WKHUHIRUHEHFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNXVHGDV
D EDVLV IRU WKH ,:3$ RI WKH WZR FDVHV KDV EHHQ DQ HIIHFWLYH WRRO IRU WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ DQG
HYDOXDWLRQRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQFRQWUROPHDVXUHV7KHFDVHVWXG\OHYHOREMHFWLYHGHILQHGIRUWKLV
UHVHDUFKKDVWKHUHIRUHEHHQDFKLHYHG
7KHFDVHVSHFLILFUHVXOWVRIWKHDERYHGHVFULEHGDVVHVVPHQWDSSURDFKKDYHEHHQVXPPDUL]HG
LQVHFWLRQIRU/DNH9LFWRULDDQGLQVHFWLRQIRUWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDDQGDUHQRWUHSHDWHG
KHUH$QXPEHURIPRUHJHQHULFOHVVRQVOHDUQWIURPWKHFDVHVWXGLHVDUHKRZHYHUVXPPDUL]HG
LQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQ
/HVVRQVOHDUQW
7KHUH DUH PDQ\ OHVVRQV WKDW FDQ EH OHDUQW IURP WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD DQG *XOI RI *XLQHD FDVH
VWXGLHV RQ YDULRXV OHYHOV RI GHWDLO 2Q WKH FDVH VWXG\ OHYHO WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW
SURYLGH LPSRUWDQW QHZ LQVLJKWV IRU WKH UHVROXWLRQ RI WKH ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ SUREOHP RI WKH WZR
FDVHV 0RUHRYHU WKH H[SHULHQFHV DQG ILQGLQJV ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH DSSOLHG PHWKRGRORJLHV
FRQFHSWV DV ZHOO DV VSHFLILF YDULDEOHV DQG SDUDPHWHUV LQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW ZLOO EHQHILW IXWXUH
UHVHDUFKRQWKHVHDQGVLPLODUFDVHV7KLVVHFWLRQGLVFXVVHVVRPHRIWKHNH\JHQHULFOHVVRQVWKDW
FDQ EH OHDUQW IURP WKH FDVH VWXGLHV ZLWK UHJDUG WR L WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH FDXVHHIIHFW
FKDLQRIFDVHVVXFKDV/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDLLWKHDVVHVVPHQWDSSURDFKLLL
PRGHOFRPSOH[LW\DQGLYXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHDVVHVVPHQW
&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHFDXVHHIIHFWFKDLQRIWKHUHVHDUFKFDVHV
2QWKHFDVHVWXG\OHYHOVHYHUDOYDOXDEOHOHVVRQVOHDUQWUHODWHWRWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOFDXVHHIIHFW
FKDLQRIZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPVVXFKDVLQ/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDUHJLRQ7KH
VLPLODULWLHV DQG GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH WZR FDVHV DUH VXPPDUL]HG LQ 7DEOH $V LV FOHDU
IURP7DEOHWKHPDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHWZRFDVHVDUHTXLWHVLPLODU
N 7KHSULQFLSDODQWKURSRJHQLFGULYLQJIRUFHVDUHUDSLGSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLQGXVWULDODQG
DJULFXOWXUDOGHYHORSPHQWIRUHVWGHVWUXFWLRQDQGELRPDVVEXUQLQJUHLQIRUFHGE\QDWXUDO
FKDQJHV VXFK DV LQ PHWHRURORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV DQG LQ HFRV\VWHP FRPSRVLWLRQ HJ
DTXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQDQGILVKVSHFLHV
N 7KHPDLQHQYLURQPHQWDOSUHVVXUHVUHVXOWLQJIURPWKHVHGULYLQJIRUFHVDUHSRLQWVRXUFH
SROOXWLRQ ORDGV GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO ODQG UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ RI QXWULHQWV DQG
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ RI QXWULHQWV VWUHQJWKHQHG E\ SUHVVXUHV IURP QDWXUDO GULYLQJ
IRUFHV
N 8QGHUVXFKSUHVVXUHVWKHVWDWHRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPLVDIIHFWHGWKURXJKFKDQJHVLQWKH
HFRV\VWHPLQFOXGLQJLQFUHDVHGQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDEXQGDQWDOJDOJURZWKUHVXOWLQJ
IURPHXWURSKLFDWLRQSDUWLDOGHR[\JHQDWLRQ+6IRUPDWLRQDQGILVKPRUWDOLW\
N 7KHHYHQWXDOLPSDFWVPDQLIHVWLQWHUPVRIGHFUHDVHGILVKUHVRXUFHVORVVRIDPHQLWLHV
WRXULVPUHFUHDWLRQDOYDOXHDQGELRGLYHUVLW\DVZHOODVGHFUHDVHGXVDELOLW\RIZDWHUIRU
GRPHVWLFLQGXVWULDODQGDJULFXOWXUDOXVHDQGWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIZDWHUERUQHDQGLQVHFW
ERUQHGLVHDVHV
&KDSWHU
)LQDO$QDO\VLVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
&RPPRQIHDWXUHVVLPLODULWLHV
'HFUHDVHGWUDGLWLRQDOILVKUHVRXUFHV
/RVVRIDPHQLW\VWHQFKDQGYLVXDOLPSDFWV
/RVVRIUHFUHDWLRQDODQGWRXULVPYDOXH
+HDOWKLPSDFWVZDWHUERUQHGLVHDVHVVXFKDVGLDUUKRHDELOKDU]LDVW\SKRLG
G\VHQWHU\DQGFKROHUD
N /RVVRIZDWHUSURYLVLRQYDOXH
N /RVVRIELRGLYHUVLW\YDOXH
,PSDFW
N &KDQJHVLQHFRV\VWHPFRPSRVLWLRQGDPDJHWRH[LVWLQJDQGFUHDWLRQRIQHZ N 'RPLQDQFH RI 1LOH 3HUFK DQG 7LODSLD KDELWDWV
DQGGLPLQXWLRQRIHQGHPLFVSHFLHV
N &KDQJHV LQ QXWULHQW F\FOH DQG DOJDO SRSXODWLRQ LQFUHDVHG 1 DQG 3
FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
N ,QWHQVLILHGDOJDOJURZWKUHVXOWLQJLQHXWURSKLFDWLRQ
N ,QFUHDVHG R[\JHQ FRQVXPSWLRQ GXH WR PLQHUDOL]DWLRQ DQG GHFRPSRVLWLRQ
GHFUHDVHG WUDQVSDUHQF\ RI ZDWHU GXH WR DOJDO JURZWK DQG K\DFLQWK PDWV
GHFUHDVHGHFRV\VWHPKHDOWKWRVXVWDLQOLYLQJUHVRXUFHV
N 2[\JHQGHSOHWLRQEUHHGLQJJURXQGIRUEDFWHULDDQGSDUDVLWHV
N 0DVVLYHILVKPRUWDOLW\GXULQJVHDVRQDOXSZHOOLQJV+6IRUPDWLRQ
(VWLPDWHGGLVWULEXWLRQRI%2'VRXUFHVDV N 'LVWULEXWLRQRI%2'VRXUFHVDVLQ)LJXUH
LQ )LJXUH RI %2' ORDGV LV RI %2' ORDGV IURP GRPHVWLF DQG
GRPHVWLFRULJLQ
LQGXVWULDOVRXUFHVDUHHTXDOO\LPSRUWDQW
(VWLPDWHGGLVWULEXWLRQRI1DQG3VRXUFHV N (VWLPDWHGGLVWULEXWLRQRI1DQG3VRXUFHV
DV LQ )LJXUH WKH PDLQ VRXUFHV DUH DV LQ )LJXUH WKH PDLQ VRXUFHV DUH
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ DQG ODQG UXQRII GRPHVWLFORDGVDQGODQGUXQRII
'RPHVWLF VRXUFHV DUH PXFK OHVV
LPSRUWDQW
6WDWH
N
N
N
N
*2*VSHFLILFIHDWXUHV
N 2YHUJUD]LQJ±H[FHHGLQJVXVWDLQDEOHUDWH N &RORQLDO KLVWRU\ RI FRDVWDO ]RQH
E\DIDFWRU
GHYHORSPHQW
N +LJK UDWH RI ELRPDVV EXUQLQJ LQ N /DUJHVFDOH DJULFXOWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW
KRXVHKROGV
VWHPPLQJIURPFRORQLDOWLPHV
N &KDQJHGFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQV
N +LJKFRPEXVWLRQHPLVVLRQVIURPWUDIILF
N ,QWURGXFWLRQ RI H[RWLF ILVK VSHFLHV 1LOH LQGXVWU\SRZHUSODQWVDQGKRXVHKROGV
3HUFKDQG7LODSLD
/DNH9LFWRULDVSHFLILFIHDWXUHV
&RPSDULVRQEHWZHHQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSROOXWLRQFDXVHHIIHFWFKDLQVRI/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD*2*
N 3RRUOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQGWUDGLWLRQDOYDOXHVVXSSRUWLQJODUJHKRXVHKROGVL]H
VRFLRHFRQRPLFUHVRXUFHVDQGEHQHILWVRIWKHFRDVWDO]RQH
N 5DSLGSRSXODWLRQJURZWKKLJKXUEDQJURZWKUDWHUDSLGLQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ
N 7UDGLWLRQDOIDUPLQJWHFKQLTXHVDQGPHDQVRIOLYLQJ
N /DQGFXOWLYDWLRQIRUDJULFXOWXUHXQVXVWDLQDEOHIRUHVWH[SORLWDWLRQ
N ,QYDVLRQRIIORDWLQJDTXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQK\DFLQWKV
• 7DEOH
N
3UHVVXUHV N 'RPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDO%2'ORDGVPDLQO\IURPXUEDQFHQWUHV
N 1XWULHQW ODQG UXQRII DQG OHDFKLQJ DV D UHVXOW RI VRLO HURVLRQ PDQXUH
SURGXFWLRQDQGIHUWLOL]HUXVH
N
N 1HPLVVLRQVDQGGXVWSDUWLFXODWH1DQG3IURPODQG
N 1DQG3ORDGVIURPGRPHVWLFVRXUFHV
N 'HFRPSRVLWLRQ RI IORDWLQJ DTXDWLF YHJHWDWLRQ UHVXOWLQJ LQ QDWXUDO RUJDQLF
PDWHULDO ORDG UHGXFHG OLJKW SHQHWUDWLRQ DQG PL[LQJ GXH WR IORDWLQJ DTXDWLF
YHJHWDWLRQ
'ULYLQJ
IRUFHV
+RZHYHU WKHUH DUH DOVR LPSRUWDQW GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH WZR FDVHV LQ SDUWLFXODU DV LW
FRQFHUQV WKH GULYLQJ IRUFHV DQG SUHVVXUHV DVSHFWV RI WKH FDXVHHIIHFW FKDLQ $W WKH GULYLQJ
IRUFHVOHYHODQLPSRUWDQWGLIIHUHQFHUHODWHVWRWKHIDFWWKDWXUEDQLVDWLRQDQGLQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQLQ
WKH*XOIRI*XLQHDUHJLRQLVLQDPXFKPRUHDGYDQFHGVWDJHWKDQLQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDUHJLRQ
7KLVUHIOHFWVFOHDUO\LQWKHUHVXOWLQJSUHVVXUHVDVGHPRQVWUDWHGLQ)LJXUHZKLFKSUHVHQWV
DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKH UHODWLYH SROOXWLRQ ORDGV IURP YDULRXV VRXUFHV LQWR WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP 7KH
KLJKHUOHYHORILQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDUHJLRQUHVXOWVLQDPXFKKLJKHUVKDUHRI
LQGXVWU\LQWKHRYHUDOO%2'ORDGWRWKHZDWHUV\VWHPWKHQLQWKHFDVHRI/DNH9LFWRULD
/DNH9LFWRULD
*XOIRI*XLQHD
5HODWLYHFRQWULEXWLRQ>@
$WPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQ
/DQGUXQRII
,QGXVWULDO
'RPHVWLF
%2'
1
3
%2'
1
3
• )LJXUH (VWLPDWHGUHODWLYHFRQWULEXWLRQVE\SROOXWLRQVRXUFHVWRSROOXWLRQORDGVLQWR/DNH
9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD(VWLPDWHVIRU/DNH9LFWRULDDUHEDVHGXSRQDODNHZLGH
DVVHVVPHQWSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQ(VWLPDWHVIRUWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDDUHEDVHGXSRQVHFWLRQ
IRU%2'UHSUHVHQWLQJUHJLRQZLGHYDOXHVDQGVHFWLRQIRU1DQG3UHSUHVHQWLQJYDOXHVIRU
WKH(EULp/DJRRQVXEFDVH
)XUWKHUPRUHLQWKHFDVHRI/DNH9LFWRULDGRPHVWLFSRLQWVRXUFHVDUHUHODWLYHO\XQLPSRUWDQW
IDFWRUVLQWKHRYHUDOOQXWULHQW1DQG3EDODQFHRIWKHODNHZKLFKLVGRPLQDWHGE\ODQGUXQRII
DQGDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ,QWKHFDVHRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDKRZHYHUGRPHVWLFORDGVDUH
DSSUR[LPDWHO\ HTXDOO\ LPSRUWDQW WR ODQG UXQRII $QRWKHU ODUJH GLIIHUHQFH LV UHODWHG WR WKH
UHODWLYHZHLJKWRIDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQLQWKHQXWULHQWEDODQFHRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPVZKHUHDV
LQWKHFDVHRI/DNH9LFWRULDDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQRI1DQG3LVSUREDEO\WKHPRVWLPSRUWDQW
IDFWRULWKDVSURYHQWREHRIOLPLWHGLQIOXHQFHLQWKH(EULp/DJRRQV\VWHP
:LWKRXWDV\VWHPDWLFDSSURDFKDVDSSOLHGLQWKLVWKHVLVVXFKGLIIHUHQFHVPLJKWQRWKDYHEHHQ
UHYHDOHGUHVXOWLQJLQSRVVLEOHSROLF\IDLOXUHV$QH[DPSOHRIVXFKIDLOXUHLVWKHFDVHRI/DNH
9LFWRULD ZKHUH DQ HDUOLHU DLG SURJUDP IRFXVVHG RQ WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI ZDWHU WUHDWPHQW
IDFLOLWLHVIRULQGXVWULHVDURXQGWKHODNH$VPD\EHFRQFOXGHGIURPWKHDVVHVVPHQWSUHVHQWHGLQ
FKDSWHUVXFKPHDVXUHZRXOGQRWUHVXOWLQDQRWLFHDEOHLPSURYHPHQWRIWKHFRQGLWLRQRIWKH
ZDWHUTXDOLW\LQWKHODNH
&KDSWHU
:KHQ FRPSDULQJ WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN IRU WKH WZR UHVHDUFK FDVHV ZLWK FDVHV SUHVHQWHG E\
+DUUHPRsVDQG7XUQHUHWDOIRUVRPHGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLWPD\EH
FRQFOXGHGWKDWPDQ\RIWKHIXQGDPHQWDOIDFWRUVWKDWSOD\DUROHLQWKHYDULRXVHOHPHQWVRIWKH
'36,5FKDLQDUHTXLWHVLPLODU$VIRUWKHDERYHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKH/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH
*XOI RI *XLQHD FDVHV WKH PDLQ GLIIHUHQFHV UHODWH WR WKH µGULYLQJ IRUFHV¶ DQG µSUHVVXUHV¶
HOHPHQWVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNEXWWKHUHDUHDOVRDQXPEHURIGLIIHUHQFHVZLWKUHJDUGWR
WKHµLPSDFW¶HOHPHQW6RPHRIWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWGLIIHUHQFHVDUH
N $W WKH GULYLQJ IRUFHV OHYHO SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK UDWHV RI LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ DQG
DJULFXOWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV DUH PXFK KLJKHU WKDQ LQ GHYHORSHG
FRXQWULHV 0RUHRYHU WUDGLWLRQDO PHDQV RI OLYLQJ DQG IDUPLQJ WHFKQLTXHV FDXVH
LQHIILFLHQW ODQGXVH XQVXVWDLQDEOH IRUHVW H[SORLWDWLRQ DQG KLJK UDWHV RI GRPHVWLF
ELRPDVVEXUQLQJ
N $W WKH SUHVVXUH OHYHO WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI µGULYLQJ IRUFHV¶ DUH VWURQJHU XQGHU
FRQGLWLRQV LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV DV D UHVXOW RI WKH DEVHQFH RI DGHTXDWH SROOXWLRQ
DEDWHPHQWPHDVXUHVVXFKDVZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWDQGFOHDQWHFKQRORJLHV
N $WWKHLPSDFWOHYHOLQFRPSDULVRQWRWKHVLWXDWLRQLQPDQ\GHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVWKH
SRSXODWLRQLQPRVWGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLVVWLOOYHU\GHSHQGHGRQEDVLFUHVRXUFHVVXFK
DV ILVK 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG DVSHFWV VXFK DV DPHQLWLHV ELRGLYHUVLW\ UHFUHDWLRQDO DQG
WRXULVP YDOXHV ZLOO LQ PDQ\GHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVEHRIVHFRQGDU\LPSRUWDQFHZKLOH
WKH\DUHFRQVLGHUHGPRUHYDOXDEOHLQGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHV
)LQDOO\ WKH DVVHVVPHQW KDV UHYHDOHG WKDW LQ ERWK WKH /DNH 9LFWRULD DQG WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD
FDVHVFKDQJHVLQQDWXUDOFRQGLWLRQVDUHDQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQWKHSUREOHPE\DGGLQJWRRUE\
VWUHQJWKHQLQJKXPDQIDFWRUV([DPSOHVDUHWKHFKDQJHVLQPHWHRURORJLFDOFRQGLWLRQVDQGLQWKH
FRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH ILVK SRSXODWLRQ LQ WKH FDVH RI /DNH 9LFWRULD DQG WKH IDFWRU RI IORDWLQJ
DTXDWLFYHJHWDWLRQLQERWK/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDODJRRQV\VWHPV$VGLVFXVVHG
LQVHFWLRQQDWXUDOIDFWRUVDUHRIWHQQRWFRQVLGHUHGLQWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN5DWKHUWKH\
DUH WUHDWHG DV JLYHQ XQFKDQJHDEOH H[WHUQDO IDFWRUV RI WKH V\VWHP 7KH WZR UHVHDUFK FDVHV
KRZHYHUGHPRQVWUDWHWKHEHQHILWRILQWHJUDWLQJQDWXUDOIDFWRUVLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWIUDPHZRUN
7KHDVVHVVPHQWDSSURDFK
$QXPEHURILPSRUWDQWOHVVRQVFDQEHOHDUQWZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHJHQHUDOUHVHDUFKDSSURDFK)LUVW
RIDOODVDUJXHGE\)LQGHLVHQDQG4XDGHLWLVXQOLNHO\IRUDQ\V\VWHPVDQDO\VLVWREH
DGHTXDWHO\SHUIRUPHGLQDVLQJOHWULDOVHYHUDOLWHUDWLRQVWHSVDUHRIWHQUHTXLUHG7KLVFRXQWVIRU
DOOSKDVHVRIWKHSURMHFWL:LWKUHVSHFWWRWKHSUREOHPGHILQLWLRQSKDVHSDUWLFXODUO\XQGHU
FRQGLWLRQVRIGDWDVFDUFHQHVVDQDFFXUDWHGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHSUREOHPLQFOXGLQJLWVERXQGDULHV
DQG FRQVWUDLQWV LV RIWHQ QRW SRVVLEOH LQ DGYDQFH RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW $V NQRZOHGJH DQG
XQGHUVWDQGLQJHYROYHWKHUHIRUHWKHIRFXVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWPD\QHHGWREHUHGHILQHGLL7KH
DVVHVVPHQWVWDJHLQLWVHOILVDIXOO\LWHUDWLYHSURFHVV7KHUHVXOWVRIRQHDVSHFWRIWKHDVVHVVPHQW
PD\VKHGQHZOLJKWRQHDUOLHUVWHSVLQWHUPVRITXHVWLRQVWREHDQVZHUHGGDWDUHOLDELOLW\DQG
UHTXLUHPHQWV HWF LLL 7KH DQDO\VLV RI UHVXOWV ZLOO UHTXLUH LWHUDWLRQ VWHSV LQ WHUPV RI WKH
GHILQLWLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHVDQGVFHQDULRV7KLVSURFHVVRILWHUDWLRQLVGHPRQVWUDWHGE\WKHWZR
FDVH VWXGLHV ZKHUHLQ GDWD ILQGLQJV DQG UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV DQG HYHQ WKH DFWXDO DVVHVVPHQW
DSSURDFKDQGPHWKRGRORJLHVZHUHRIWHQUHYLVLWHGRQWKHEDVLVRIQHZLQVLJKWV
)LQDO$QDO\VLVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
$VHFRQGOHVVRQOHDUQWLQSDUWLFXODUIURPWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDFDVHGHPRQVWUDWHVWKDWVFHQDULR
DQDO\VLVSURYLGHVDXVHIXODVVHVVPHQWWRRODVDOUHDG\GLVFXVVHGLQVHFWLRQ)RUH[DPSOH
WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI YDULRXV UHVSRQVH VFHQDULRV RI SROOXWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH (EULp /DJRRQ
FDWFKPHQW DUHD KDV OHG WR FRQFOXVLRQV WKDW ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ OHVV REYLRXV ZLWKRXW D IRUPDO
VFHQDULR DQDO\VLV WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH VFHQDULR DQDO\VLV KDYH GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW ZKLOH RQ D
FDWFKPHQWDUHDVFDOHSRLQWDQGQRQSRLQWVRXUFHVDUHHTXDOO\LPSRUWDQWDUHGXFWLRQLQSRLQW
VRXUFHSROOXWLRQORDGVZLOORQO\LPSURYHFRQGLWLRQVLQWKHFHQWUDOSDUWRIWKHODJRRQ1RQSRLQW
VRXUFH UHGXFWLRQ ZRXOG RQ WKH FRQWUDU\ LPSURYH FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH FRPSOHWH ZDWHU V\VWHP
7KH FRQFOXVLRQ WKHUHIRUH LV WKDW ZKLOH SRLQWVRXUFH SROOXWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ LV PRVW HDVLO\
DFKLHYDEOH DQG DQ HIILFLHQW ZD\ RI UHGXFLQJ WKH WRWDO QXWULHQW ORDG FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH ZDWHU
V\VWHP FDQ RQO\ HIIHFWLYHO\ EH LPSURYHG WKURXJK QRQSRLQW VRXUFH SROOXWLRQ UHGXFWLRQ
SUHIHUDEO\LQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKSRLQWVRXUFHDEDWHPHQW
$WKLUGOHVVRQOHDUQWUHODWHVWRWKHV\VWHPVDSSURDFKZKLFKKDVHQVXUHGWKDWWKHDVVHVVPHQW
FRQVLGHUV WKH SK\VLFDO HFRORJLFDO DQG KXPDQ GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP DQG WKDW DV
UHDOLVWLFDVSRVVLEOHERXQGDULHVIRUHDFKRIWKHVHGLPHQVLRQVDUHGHILQHG+RZHYHUDVDOUHDG\
FRQFOXGHG E\ *UDHGHO DQG $OOHQE\ GHILQLQJ WKH ERXQGDULHV RI D V\VWHP LV DOPRVW
DOZD\VVRPHZKDWDUELWUDU\,WUHTXLUHVWKHDQDO\VWWRLGHQWLI\WKRVHDVSHFWVWKDWDUHUHOHYDQWWR
WKHV\VWHPDQGWKDWDUHUHTXLUHGWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHOLQNDJHVEHWZHHQDVSHFWVZLWKLQWKHV\VWHP
7KHERXQGDULHVGHILQHGIRUVXFKV\VWHPPXVWKRZHYHUDOZD\VEHSUDFWLFDO
,QWKLVUHVSHFWWKHERXQGDULHVRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULDDQG*XOIRI*XLQHDV\VWHPVDVGHILQHGLQ
WKLVWKHVLVDUHGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPV,QUHDOLW\KRZHYHUWKH
DUHDRILQWHUDFWLRQLVPXFKZLGHU)RUH[DPSOHLQWKHFDVHRIWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDWKHJXOILV
QRWDVWDQGDORQHZDWHUV\VWHPEXWLQWHUDFWVZLWKWKHRSHQRFHDQDQGZLWKQHLJKERXULQJZDWHU
V\VWHPV $QRWKHU LPSRUWDQW µFURVVERXQGDU\¶ DVSHFW LV WKH DWPRVSKHUH ZKLFK LQIOXHQFHVWKH
ZDWHU V\VWHP WKURXJK FOLPDWLF FRQGLWLRQV EXW DOVR WKURXJK WKH WUDQVSRUW RI VXEVWDQFHV YLD
DWPRVSKHULFDYHQXHV6XFKLQWHUDFWLRQVDUHWKHUHIRUHGHWHUPLQHGRQDPXFKODUJHUVFDOHWKDQ
WKH ERXQGDULHV RI WKH GHILQHG V\VWHPV ,W LV WKHUHIRUH LPSRUWDQW WKDW QRW RQO\ WKH LQWHUQDO
V\VWHPZLGHDVSHFWVRIWKHSUREOHPDUHDVVHVVHGEXWWRDFHUWDLQH[WHQGWKDWNQRZOHGJHLVDOVR
DFKLHYHGRQWKHH[WHUQDOFRQWH[WZLWKLQZKLFKWKHV\VWHPLVHPEHGGHG
0RGHOFRPSOH[LW\
$V GHPRQVWUDWHG E\ WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH (EULp /DJRRQ LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD D PXOWL
VHJPHQWPRGHOPD\KDYHJUHDWEHQHILWVRYHUDRQHVHJPHQWPRGHOVXFKDVDSSOLHGLQWKHFDVH
RI/DNH9LFWRULD,QWKH(EULp/DJRRQFDVHWKHZDWHUV\VWHPZDVGLYLGHGLQWRVHYHQVHJPHQWV
ZLWKFOHDUO\GLIIHUHQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFV,QWKLVPDQQHUNH\VHJPHQWVVXFKDVWKHFHQWUDOSDUWRI
WKHODJRRQZKLFKUHFHLYHVQHDUO\DOOXUEDQSROOXWLRQORDGVDQGVHJPHQWVUHFHLYLQJLPSRUWDQW
ULYHU LQSXWV FRXOG EH PRUH RU OHVV LQGLYLGXDOO\ DVVHVVHG %\ GRLQJ VR WKH DVVHVVPHQW KDV
SURYLGHGYDOXDEOHLQIRUPDWLRQZLWKUHJDUGWRQXWULHQWORDGVIURPULYHUVPDLQO\WKURXJKODQG
UXQRIIDQGSRLQWVRXUFHVDOORZLQJWKXVIRUPRUHILUPFRQFOXVLRQV,WLVQRWHGKRZHYHUWKDW
FDOLEUDWLRQ RI D PXOWLVHJPHQW PRGHO LV RQO\ SRVVLEOH LI VSDWLDOO\ H[SOLFLW GDWD RQ QXWULHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHZDWHUV\VWHPDUHDYDLODEOH)RU/DNH9LFWRULDWKLVLVXQIRUWXQDWHO\QRW
WKHFDVH&ULWHULDIRUWKHVHOHFWLRQRIDSSURSULDWHVSDWLDOUHVROXWLRQZHUHDOUHDG\SUHVHQWHGLQ
VHFWLRQ7KHNH\FRQVLGHUDWLRQVLQWKLVDUHDWOHDVW
$VDOVRDUJXHGE\RWKHUSUDFWLWLRQHUVRI,($VXFKDV,&,6DQG(($
&KDSWHU
N +RPRJHQHLW\ RI WKH ZDWHU V\VWHP :KHQ D ZDWHU V\VWHP LV VXIILFLHQWO\
KRPRJHQHRXVVXFKDVRIWHQLVWKHFDVHLQUHODWLYHO\VKDOORZODNHVZLWKDVXIILFLHQWO\
ORQJUHWHQWLRQWLPHDVLPSOHER[PRGHOPD\EHVXIILFLHQW:KHQKRZHYHUUHOHYDQW
YDULDWLRQVLQSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDODQGRUELRORJLFDOSDUDPHWHUVRYHUGHSWKRUGLVWDQFHDUH
H[SHFWHG VXFK DV ZLWK GHHSHU ZDWHUV YHUWLFDO YDULDWLRQV DQG ULYHUV DQG HVWXDULHV
KRUL]RQWDOYDULDWLRQVYHUWLFDODQGRUKRUL]RQWDOGLPHQVLRQVPD\QHHGWREHDGGHG
N 'DWDDYDLODELOLW\:KLOHLQYLHZRIWKHSUHYLRXVFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKHYDOXHRIDPRGHO
DQGDFFRUGLQJWR+nNDQVRQDOVRLWVUHOLDELOLW\ZRXOGVXEVWDQWLDOO\LQFUHDVHZLWK
DGGLWLRQDO VSDWLDO UHVROXWLRQ HDFK OHYHO RI DGGHG FRPSOH[LW\ LQ WKLV UHVSHFW UHTXLUHV
GDWDLQRUGHUWRFDOLEUDWHWKHPRGHO
,Q OLQH ZLWK VHFWLRQ WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI PRUH IXQGDPHQWDO SURFHVV EDVHG PRGHOV ZDV
DWWHPSWHGLQWKHFDVHRI/DNH9LFWRULD6XFKDWWHPSWVIRFXVVHGLQSDUWLFXODURQWKHVLPXODWLRQ
RIHFRORJLFDOSURFHVVHVDQGZHUHEDVHGXSRQWKHGHILQLWLRQRIDGGLWLRQDOPRGHOHTXDWLRQVDV
ZHOODVRQWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIH[LVWLQJJHQHULFPRGHOV7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHVHDWWHPSWVDUHUHSRUWHG
LQ 6FKHUHQ DQG 9OLHJKH ,Q ERWK FDVHV KRZHYHU WKH LQFUHDVHG OHYHO RI
VRSKLVWLFDWLRQUHTXLUHGVXEVWDQWLDOGDWDDQGXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHIXQGDPHQWDOSURFHVVHVLQWKH
ODNH &RQVHTXHQWO\ LW ZDV FRQFOXGHG WKDW ZKLOH ZLWK D ODUJH QXPEHU RI DVVXPSWLRQV LW LV
SRVVLEOHWRDSSO\PRUHFRPSOH[PRGHOVWRFDVHVVXFKDV/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD
WKH DYDLODEOH GDWD DQG NQRZOHGJH XQGHU VXFK FRQGLWLRQV LV LQVXIILFLHQW IRU DQ DGHTXDWH
FDOLEUDWLRQRIWKHPRGHO
,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGKRZHYHUWKDWWKHUHODWLYHO\ORZOHYHORIFRPSOH[LW\RIWKHDSSOLHGPRGHOV
EHDUV VRPH ULVNV )RU LQVWDQFH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH PRGHOV DV DSSOLHG LQ WKLV UHVHDUFK DVVXPH
WKDW DOO LQODNH SURFHVVHV DUH OLQHDUO\ UHODWHG WR WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI VXEVWDQFHV LQ WKH ODNH
+RZHYHU DV DUJXHG DPRQJ RWKHUV E\ *UDHGHO DQG $OOHQE\ LQ UHDOLW\ HFRORJLFDO
SURFHVVHVLQDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPVDUHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\VWURQJLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQFRPSRQHQWV
UHVXOWLQJ LQ QRQOLQHDU UHVSRQVHV )RU H[DPSOH WKH FRQGLWLRQV LQ D ZDWHU ERG\ PD\ FKDQJH
JUDGXDOO\XQGHUSUHVVXUHRILQFUHDVHGSROOXWLRQORDGVXQWLODFHUWDLQWKUHVKROGLVUHDFKHGDIWHU
ZKLFKHYHQDVPDOOLQFUHPHQWZLOOFDXVHFRQGLWLRQVWRFKDQJHGUDPDWLFDOO\$QH[DPSOHRIWKLV
LV /DNH 9LFWRULD ZKHUH D PDUNHG VKLIW LQ SK\WRSODQNWRQ FRPPXQLW\ WRZDUGV 1IL[LQJ
F\DQREDFWHULD VRPHZKHUH LQ WKH ¶V KDV EHHQ REVHUYHG ,Q LWVHOI WKLV FKDQJH LQ
HFRV\VWHPFRPSRVLWLRQKDVEHHQWULJJHUHGE\LQFUHDVHGQXWULHQWORDGVSRVVLEO\UHVXOWLQJLQDQ
1GHILFLW7KHUHVXOWLVKRZHYHUWKDWHXWURSKLFDWLRQRIWKHODNHKDVIROORZHGDVWHHSLQFOLQH
IURPWKHVRQZDUGV
)RUDUHFHQWH[DPSOHVHH+DYHQVHWDOZKRDSSOLHGDVLPSOHER[PRGHOWRVKDOORZODNHVLQ-DSDQ&KLQDDQG
WKH86$%HFDXVHRIWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIFRPSOHWHPL[LQJLQ/DNH9LFWRULDDVDUJXHGE\IRUH[DPSOH%HHWRQVXFK
VLPSOHER[PRGHOLVDOVRMXVWLILHGIRUWKLVODNH
)RUUHFHQWH[DPSOHVRIPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOPRGHOVWRHVWXDULHVVHH/RQLQDQG7XFKNRYHQDQG$UKRQGLWVLVHWDO
$VUHSRUWHGE\%RRWVPDDQG+HFN\*RSKHQHWDO+HFN\/XQJ¶D\LDHWDO0XJLGGH
DQG2FKXPEDDQG.LEDDUD
)LQDO$QDO\VLVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDDQGUHVXOWV
,PSRUWDQW VRXUFHV RI XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ WKH/DNH9LFWRULDDQG*XOIRI*XLQHDFDVHVWXGLHVZHUH
IRXQGWREH
N 3ROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV IRU GRPHVWLF DQG LQGXVWULDO SROOXWLRQ QXWULHQW ODQG UXQRII DQG
DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
N )DFWRUV GHWHUPLQLQJ QXWULHQW UHWHQWLRQ LQ ZDWHU V\VWHPV VHGLPHQWDWLRQ UHVXVSHQVLRQ
1IL[DWLRQDQGGHQLWULILFDWLRQ
,W PD\ EH FRQFOXGHG IURP WKH FDVH VWXGLHV WKDW WKH XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ SROOXWLRQ LQWHQVLWLHV FDQ
SUREDEO\ QRW EH UHGXFHG ZLWKRXW GHWDLOHG ILHOG UHVHDUFK HJ WKURXJK DFWXDO PRQLWRULQJ RI
SROOXWLRQORDGVIURPWKHYDULRXVVRXUFHV8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQIDFWRURQWKH
RWKHU KDQG FRXOG SRVVLEO\ EH VXEVWDQWLDOO\ UHGXFHG WKURXJK D EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH
PHFKDQLVPVEHKLQGWKHYDULRXVSURFHVVHVLQYROYHG+RZHYHUDOVRLQWKLVFDVHUHOLDEOHGDWD
FRXOGRQO\EHREWDLQHGWKURXJKDFWXDOPHDVXUHPHQW
,QERWKWKH/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH*XOIRI*XLQHDFDVHVWKHXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVSUHVHQWHGLQ
WKLVWKHVLVLQGLFDWHVWKDWWKHPRUHLPSRUWDQWRIWKHWZRDERYHPHQWLRQHGIDFWRUVLQWHUPVRI
XQFHUWDLQWLHV LV OLNHO\ WR EH µQXWULHQW UHWHQWLRQ¶ )RU 3 ZKLFK LV GLFWDWHG E\ VHGLPHQWDWLRQ
UHVXVSHQVLRQHIIHFWVRQO\WKHUDQJHVRIXQFHUWDLQW\DUHUHODWLYHO\VPDOO)RU1KRZHYHUWKHUH
DUH WZR LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV LQ DGGLWLRQ WR VHGLPHQWDWLRQ DQG UHVXVSHQVLRQ ZKLFK HQWDLO
FRQVLGHUDEOH XQFHUWDLQWLHV 1IL[DWLRQ DQG GHQLWULILFDWLRQ ,QVLWX DQDO\VLV DV UHSRUWHG E\
+HFN\ KDV GHPRQVWUDWHG KLJK OHYHOV RI 1IL[DWLRQ LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD ,Q WKH *XOI RI
*XLQHD1IL[DWLRQGRHVQRWSOD\DUROH'HQLWULILFDWLRQLVDIDFWRULQERWKFDVHV:KLOHGHVSLWH
WKHFRQVHTXHQWLDOXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQWKHUHVXOWVRI(EULp/DJRRQFDVHWKHPDLQFRQFOXVLRQVVHHP
MXVWLILHG WKH ODUJH XQFHUWDLQWLHV UHODWHG WR WKH 1IL[DWLRQ DQG GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWHV LQ /DNH
9LFWRULDKDPSHUDIXOOMXVWLILFDWLRQRIUHVXOWVZLWKUHJDUGWRWKH1EDODQFHRIWKHODNH
7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV IRU WKH WZR FDVHV KDYH QRW RQO\ UHYHDOHG WKH DERYH
PHQWLRQHG XQFHUWDLQWLHV EXW LW KDV DOVR SURYLGHG LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ SRVVLEOH UDQJHV RI HUURU LQ
UHVXOWV7KLVLQWXUQJLYHVFRQILGHQFHLQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQW$VDOUHDG\DUJXHGE\
RWKHUVVXFKDV9DQ$DUGHQQH+RUGLMNHWDO5RWPDQVDQG9DQ$VVHOW
DQG 9DQ $VVHOW HW DO WKH H[SHULHQFHV IURP WKLV UHVHDUFK GHPRQVWUDWH WKH YDOXH RI
XQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLQ,($7KHWHFKQLTXHVDSSOLHGLQWKLVUHVHDUFKFRYHUDOOWKUHHFDWHJRULHV
RIPHWKRGVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVDVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHSDJHLTXDOLW\FRQWURORI
PHWKRGV DQG GDWD DVVHVVPHQW RI FDOFXODWLRQ FRUUHFWQHVV DQG UHDVRQDEOHQHVV RI GDWD LL
LQWHUQDO XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV TXDOLWDWLYH DVVHVVPHQW H[SHUW HVWLPDWLRQ VHQVLWLYLW\ DQDO\VLV
XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV DQG DQDO\VLV RI XQFHUWDLQW\ SURSDJDWLRQ DQG LLL H[WHUQDO XQFHUWDLQW\
DQDO\VLV GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW PHDVXUHPHQW FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK RWKHU PRGHOV DQG FRPSDULVRQ
ZLWKRWKHUPRGHOVWUXFWXUHV7KHXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLVWKHUHIRUHFRQVLGHUHGUDWKHUFRPSOHWH
+RZHYHUDOWKRXJKDTXDQWLWDWLYHSUREDELOLW\DQDO\VLVŠLQFOXGLQJDQDQDO\VLVRISURSDJDWLRQ
RIXQFHUWDLQWLHVŠZDVDSSOLHGLQWKHFDVHRI/DNH9LFWRULDVHFWLRQWKHDQDO\VLVGLGQRW
IROORZDVWUXFWXUHGIUDPHZRUNZKLFKPLJKWEHFRQVLGHUHGDZHDNQHVVLQWKHDVVHVVPHQW
6HH$QQH[IRUDGHVFULSWLRQRI1IL[DWLRQDQGGHQLWULILFDWLRQSURFHVVHV
&KDSWHU
)LQDODQDO\VLVRIWKHFRQFHSWXDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUN
$FFRPSOLVKPHQWRIWKHRYHUDOOUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYH
7KHRYHUDOOREMHFWLYHRIWKLVUHVHDUFKZDV
WR GHYHORS D FRQFHSWXDO DQG PHWKRGRORJLFDO IUDPHZRUN IRU ,QWHJUDWHG :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ
$VVHVVPHQWXQGHUGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUFRQGLWLRQV $V GLVFXVVHG LQ VHFWLRQ WKHUH DUH RQO\ IHZ H[DPSOHV RI ,($OLNH DSSURDFKHV WR ZDWHU
SROOXWLRQSUREOHPV7KLVKROGVDOVRIRUWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVUHYLHZHG
LQ VHFWLRQ :KHUH H[DPSOHV GR H[LVW PRUHRYHU WKH\ FRQFHUQ VLWXDWLRQV SUHYLRXVO\
H[WHQVLYHO\UHVHDUFKHGE\PRUHGLVFLSOLQDU\RULHQWHGWHDPVEDQNLQJWKHUHZLWKRQDUDWKHUILUP
EDVLVRIH[LVWLQJGDWDNQRZOHGJHDQGIXQGDPHQWDOXQGHUVWDQGLQJ2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHOLWHUDWXUH
UHYLHZVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQDQGWKHUHVHDUFKSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVLVDVVXPHGWR
EHRQHRIWKHILUVWH[DPSOHVRIVXFKDSSURDFKWRGDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUVLWXDWLRQV
,Q FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI WKH OLPLWDWLRQV LQ GDWD DQG UHVRXUFHV D VSHFLILF FRQFHSWXDO DQG
PHWKRGRORJLFDO DSSURDFK IRU ,:3$ ZDV GHYHORSHG FRQVLVWLQJ RI WKH IROORZLQJ PDLQ
HOHPHQWV
N 7KH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVWKHRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNIRUDVVHVVPHQWRIFDXVHVDQGHIIHFWV
RIDQGUHVSRQVHVWRWKHZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPVHFWLRQ
N $VHWRIPHWKRGRORJLHVIRUDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHLQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKHYDULRXV
HOHPHQWVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUNDVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH
• 7DEOH
2YHUYLHZRIPHWKRGRORJLHVDSSOLHGIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRILQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQ
HOHPHQWVRIWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN
'36,56WHS
0HWKRG
6HFWLRQRI
WKLVWKHVLV
,
'ULYLQJIRUFHV3UHVVXUHV 5DSLG$VVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\
,,
3UHVVXUHV±6WDWH
6XEVWDQFHEDODQFHPRGHOOLQJ
,,,
6WDWH±,PSDFW
&RQFHSWXDO IUDPHZRUN IRU ZDWHU V\VWHP IXQFWLRQ
DQGYDOXHDQDO\VLV
,9
'HILQLWLRQRIUHVSRQVH
PHDVXUHV
&RQFHSWXDO IUDPHZRUN IRU WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ DQG
GHILQLWLRQRISRVVLEOHUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV
N 0HWKRGV IRU XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV ,Q YLHZ RI WKH LQKHUHQW XQFHUWDLQWLHV UHODWHG WR
ODUJHVFDOH ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW LQ JHQHUDO LQ SDUWLFXODU XQGHU GDWD SRRU
VLWXDWLRQV D VHOHFWLRQ RI PHWKRGV IRU XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV LV SURSRVHG DQG GLVFXVVHG
VHFWLRQ
)LQDO$QDO\VLVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
7KH SURSRVHG FRQFHSWXDO DQG PHWKRGRORJLFDO IUDPHZRUN ZDV DSSOLHG WR WKH FDVHV RI /DNH
9LFWRULD DQG WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD 'HVSLWH FHUWDLQ ZHDNQHVVHV LQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW VXFK DV
XQFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWRFHUWDLQHOHPHQWVRIWKHDQDO\VLVWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHVHFDVHVKDYHFOHDUO\
GHPRQVWUDWHGWKHIHDVLELOLW\DQGIXQFWLRQDOLW\RIWKHSURSRVHG,:3$DSSURDFKIRUWKLVW\SHRI
ZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPV,WLVIHOWWKDWWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHLQWHJUDWHGV\VWHPVDQGSUREOHP
VROYLQJRULHQWHGDSSURDFKGHYHORSHGLQWKLVWKHVLVVLJQLILFDQWO\LQFUHDVHVWKHSROLF\UHOHYDQFH
RISURSRVHGSROOXWLRQFRQWURODFWLRQV
7KH VXFFHVV RI WKH WZR FDVH VWXGLHV SURYLGHV FRQILGHQFH LQ WKH DSSOLFDELOLW\ RI WKH ,:3$
IUDPHZRUN SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV WR RWKHU VLPLODU FDVHV RI ZDWHU SROOXWLRQ LQ GDWD DQG
UHVRXUFHSRRUVLWXDWLRQV+RZHYHUWKLVGRHVQRWQHFHVVDULO\PHDQWKDWWKLVZRXOGEHWKHFDVH
XQGHUDOOFLUFXPVWDQFHV,QWKLVUHVSHFWLWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHIXQFWLRQDOLW\RIWKH,:3$
IUDPHZRUNGHSHQGVRQDQXPEHURIIDFWRUV)LUVWRIDOOWKHUHLVDPLQLPXPDPRXQWRIGDWDWKDW
LVUHTXLUHGLQRUGHUWRH[HFXWHWKHDVVHVVPHQW,QWKLVUHVSHFWLWPD\EHDVVXPHGWKDWRIWKH
UHTXLUHG GDWD PXFK ZRXOG JHQHUDOO\ EH DYDLODEOH HYHQ XQGHU GDWDSRRU FRQGLWLRQV 7KLV
LQFOXGHVGDWDRQGHPRJUDSKLFVLQGXVWULDOSURGXFWLRQDQGODQGXVH,IQRWHVWLPDWHVFDQRIWHQ
EHPDGH+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHDOVROLPLWDWLRQVLQWKLVUHJDUG7KLVFRQFHUQVIRUH[DPSOHGDWDRQ
FHUWDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPVXFKDVZDWHUTXDOLW\SDUDPHWHUVYROXPHLQIORZ
RXWIORZDQGGHSWKZLWKRXWZKLFKVWHS,,RIWKHDVVHVVPHQWWKHUHODWLRQµSUHVVXUHV¶±µVWDWH¶
FRXOGQRWEHUHDOLVWLFDOO\H[HFXWHG
)XUWKHUPRUH DV DOUHDG\ DUJXHG LQ VHFWLRQ LQ VHFWLRQ XQGHU WKH KHDGLQJ µPRGHO
FRPSOH[LW\¶LVQRWHGWKDWWKHOLPLWDWLRQVLQGDWDDYDLODELOLW\GHWHUPLQHDOVRWKHOHYHORIGHWDLO
DQG UHOLDELOLW\ WKDW FDQ EH DFKLHYHG LQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW )RU H[DPSOH LQ WKH FDVH RI /DNH
9LFWRULDWKHVWDWHRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPZDVDVVHVVHGRQDODNHZLGHOHYHOZLWKRXWDQ\VSDWLDO
UHVROXWLRQ,QWKHFDVHRIWKH(EULpODJRRQWKHOHYHORIGHWDLOZDVKLJKHUEXWVWLOOOLPLWHGWRD
EURDGVHJPHQWZLGHDQDO\VLV$OWKRXJKLQWKHWZRFDVHVWXGLHVVXIILFLHQWGHWDLODQGFRQILGHQFH
FRXOGEHDFKLHYHGWRDOORZIRUFRQFOXVLRQVZLWKUHJDUGWRUHVROXWLRQRIWKHSROOXWLRQSUREOHP
WKLVLVQRWQHFHVVDULO\DOZD\VWKHFDVH)RUH[DPSOHKDGLQWKHFDVHRIWKH(EULpODJRRQRQO\
ODJRRQZLGHQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVEHHQDYDLODEOHWKDQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWZRXOGEH
PXFKOHVVXVHIXOLQYLHZRIWKHVWURQJKHWHURJHQHLW\RIWKHZDWHUV\VWHP
)LQDOO\ LW LV QRWHG WKDW WKH DSSURDFK SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV SUHVHQWV RQO\ D IUDPHZRUN IRU
DVVHVVPHQW UDWKHU WKDQ D IL[HG VHW RI PHWKRGRORJLHV )RU H[DPSOH VHFWLRQ SURYLGHV D
JHQHUDO IUDPHZRUN IRU WKH VHOHFWLRQ DQG GHVLJQ RI PRGHOV IRU DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH µSUHVVXUH¶
µVWDWH¶ UHODWLRQVKLS UDWKHU WKDQ D VLQJOH PXOWLSXUSRVH PRGHO 0XFK LV OHIW WKHUHIRUH WR WKH
MXGJHPHQWDQGH[SHULHQFHRIWKHDVVHVVRUWRPDNHDILQDOFKRLFHRIPHWKRGVDQGDSSURDFKHVWR
EHDSSOLHG7KLVFRXOGEHVHHQDVDVWUHQJWKEHFDXVHLWJLYHVWKHDVVHVVRUWKHRSSRUWXQLW\WR
DGDSWWKHDSSURDFKWRDSDUWLFXODUVLWXDWLRQ+RZHYHULWFRXOGDOVREHVHHQDVDWKUHDWWRWKH
VXFFHVVUDWH RI WKH ,:3$ EHFDXVH LW UHTXLUHV PXFK LQVLJKW DQG NQRZOHGJH LQ WKH WHFKQLFDO
SRVVLELOLWLHVDQGOLPLWDWLRQVRIWKHPHWKRG
'HVSLWH WKH EHIRUHPHQWLRQHG OLPLWDWLRQV DQG UHVHUYDWLRQV ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH DSSOLFDELOLW\ RI
WKH,:3$IUDPHZRUNWRRWKHUFDVHVWKHVXFFHVVUDWHLQWKHFDVHRIWKH/DNH9LFWRULDDQGWKH
*XOI RI *XLQHD DV ZHOO DV WKH DERYHPHQWLRQHG IOH[LELOLWLHV EXLOG LQWR WKH PHWKRGRORJLFDO
IUDPHZRUN SURYLGH D UHDVRQDEOH FRQILGHQFH LQ LWV IXQFWLRQDOLW\ LQ PDQ\ LI QRW PRVW VLPLODU
FDVHV
&KDSWHU
7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQV SURYLGH DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKH VWUHQJWKV DQG ZHDNQHVVHV RI WKH ,:3$
IUDPHZRUN
6WUHQJWKVDQGZHDNQHVVHVRIWKH,:3$IUDPHZRUN
7KH ,:3$ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD DQG WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD KDV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKH DSSOLHG
DSSURDFK DQG PHWKRGRORJLHV KDYH PDQ\ VWUHQJWKV DQG DOORZ IRU FRQFOXVLRQV WR EH GUDZQ
ZKLFKZRXOGQRWKDYHEHHQSRVVLEOHWKURXJKDOHVVV\VWHPDWLFDQGFRPSUHKHQVLYHDVVHVVPHQW
DSSURDFK7KLVLVGXHWRDQXPEHURISRVLWLYHIHDWXUHVRIWKHFRQFHSWXDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDO
IUDPHZRUN
N 7KHV\VWHPDWLFPDQQHULQZKLFKWKHFDXVHVDQGHIIHFWVRIWKHZDWHUSROOXWLRQSUREOHPV
DUHGLVWLQJXLVKHGRUJDQL]HGDQGSUHVHQWHGLQWRD'36,5IUDPHZRUNFUHDWHVLQVLJKWLQ
WKH LQGLYLGXDO HOHPHQWV RI WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO FDXVHHIIHFW FKDLQ 0RUHRYHU LW DOORZV
IRU LQWHUGHSHQGHQFLHV EHWZHHQ WKHVH HOHPHQWV WR EH V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ LGHQWLILHG DQG
DVVHVVHGLQDVWHSZLVHPDQQHU7KLVV\VWHPDWLFZD\LQZKLFKWKHSROOXWLRQSUREOHPLV
DQDO\VHGKHOSVWRILQGDZD\WKURXJKWKHFRPSOH[LQWHUGHSHQGHQWQDWXUHRIWKHYDULRXV
DVSHFWRIWKHSUREOHPV
N 7KHV\VWHPVDSSURDFKHQVXUHVWKDWWKHDVVHVVPHQWFRQVLGHUVUHDOLVWLFERXQGDULHVIRUWKH
SK\VLFDOHFRORJLFDODQGKXPDQGLPHQVLRQVRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPXQGHUVWXG\
N 7KHLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\QDWXUHRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWHQVXUHVWKDWDOODVSHFWVRIWKHSROOXWLRQ
SUREOHPŠSK\VLFDOFKHPLFDOELRORJLFDOVRFLRHFRQRPLFPHGLFDOWHFKQRORJLFDOHWF
ŠDUHFRQVLGHUHG7KHYDOXHRIUHVHDUFKDQGDVVHVVPHQWWHFKQLTXHVRULJLQDWLQJIURP
YDULRXVGLVFLSOLQDU\DUHDVLVJUHDWO\HQKDQFHGE\WKHLULQWHJUDWLRQLQWRDFRPSUHKHQVLYH
DVVHVVPHQWDSSURDFK
N 7KHSURSRVHGPHWKRGRORJLHVKDYHSURYHQWREHUREXVWHQRXJKWREHDSSOLHGXQGHUWKH
GDWDDQGUHVRXUFHSRRUFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHFDVHVWXGLHV7KLVPHDQVWKDWZKHUHQRUPDOO\
GHWDLOHG ILHOG UHVHDUFK ZRXOG EH UHTXLUHG WKH PHWKRGRORJLHV PDNH XVHRIDYDLODEOH
GDWD LQ DQ LQQRYDWLYH PDQQHU OHDGLQJ WR QHZ LQVLJKWV LQ DQG SHUVSHFWLYHV WR WKH
SUREOHP
N 7KH ,:3$ IUDPHZRUN SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV GRHV QRW SURYLGH D IL[HG VHW RI
PHWKRGRORJLHV5DWKHULWSURYLGHVDPHWKRGRORJLFDODQGFRQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUNXSRQ
ZKLFKDFDVHVWXG\VSHFLILFDSSURDFKPD\EHGHYHORSHG7KLVSURYLGHVWKHDVVHVVRUWKH
QHFHVVDU\IOH[LELOLW\WRDGDSWKLVKHUDSSURDFKWRDSDUWLFXODUVLWXDWLRQ
N ,Q YLHZ RI WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI GDWD DQG UHVRXUFH SRRUQHVV DFFRPSDQLHG E\ VWLOO ODUJH
VKRUWFRPLQJVLQXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIVRPHRIWKHIXQGDPHQWDOSURFHVVHVLQZDWHUV\VWHPV
WKH DQDO\VLV RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ GDWD DQG UHVXOWV LV D FUXFLDO DVSHFW RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW
7KHXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVKDVVKRZQJUHDWPHULWVLQMXVWLI\LQJWKH
UHVXOWV RI WKH WZR FDVH VWXGLHV DQG LQ LGHQWLI\LQJ UHPDLQLQJ DUHDV RI XQFHUWDLQW\
0RUHRYHULWKDVDFWXDOO\KHOSHGWRVKHGQHZOLJKWRQVRPHRIWKHILQGLQJV
)LQDO$QDO\VLVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
N 7KHDSSOLHGDSSURDFKDOORZVIRULPSRUWDQWLQWHUQDOFURVVFKHFNLQJRIWKHUHVXOWVRIWKH
GLIIHUHQW VWHSV LQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW )RU H[DPSOH WKH LQGLYLGXDO SROOXWLRQ ORDGV IURP
YDULRXVVRXUFHVWKH:DVWH/RDGLQ(TXDWLRQSDJHHVWLPDWHGLQVWHSV,RIWKH
'36,5 IUDPHZRUN µGULYLQJ IRUFHV¶ ± µSUHVVXUHV¶ FDQ EH PDWFKHG ZLWK WKH WRWDO
SROOXWLRQORDG:$LQ(TXDWLRQFDOFXODWHGLQVWHS,,µSUHVVXUHV¶±µVWDWH¶$VD
UHVXOWWKHSRVVLEOHUDQJHVRIYDOXHVIRUVRPHRIWKHYDULDEOHVXVHGLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWDUH
VXEVWDQWLDOO\UHGXFHG
1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHUHDUHFOHDUO\DOVRDQXPEHURIZHDNQHVVHVZKLFKDUHLQSDUWLFXODU
N 7KH XQFHUWDLQWLHV UHODWHG WR GDWD DQG PRGHO SDUDPHWHUV DUH UHODWLYHO\ ODUJH DV D
FRQVHTXHQFHRIWKHGDWDSRRUFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHSUREOHPVVWXGLHG0RUHRYHUEHFDXVH
DOVR WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI HUURUV LQ SDUDPHWHUV DQG YDULDEOHV LV QRW NQRZQ D WKRURXJK
VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV RI VXFK XQFHUWDLQWLHV LV QRW SRVVLEOH 7KH WZR FDVHV VWXGLHV KDYH
GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKLV PD\ UHVXOW LQ FRQVLGHUDEOH XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH
DVVHVVPHQW
N 7KHOLPLWHGVFRSHRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWZKLFKUHODWHVILUVWRIDOOWRWKHIDFWWKDWWKHµVWDWH¶
±µLPSDFW¶UHODWLRQLVDVVHVVHGRQO\TXDOLWDWLYHO\ZKLFKGLVDEOHVDSRVVLEOHHFRQRPLF
DQDO\VLV RI WKH GHILQHG UHVSRQVH PHDVXUHV $V GLVFXVVHG LQ VHFWLRQ D VHFRQG
OLPLWDWLRQ LQ VFRSH LV UHODWHG WR WKH IDFW WKDW WKH DFWXDO SROLF\ DQDO\VLV LQYROYHV
FRQVLGHUDWLRQRIQRWRQO\WKHWHFKQLFDODVSHFWVRIDSUREOHPDVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLV
EXWDPXOWLSOLFLW\RIRWKHUIDFWRUVZKLFKLQFOXGHPRVWLPSRUWDQWO\
4 7KH FRQFHUQVSHUFHSWLRQ RI VWDNHKROGHUV DW WKH SHUVRQDO OHYHO ZLWK
UHJDUGWRWKHSROOXWLRQSUREOHP
4 7KHDFWXDOVRFLDODQGFXOWXUDOSURFHVVHVDWWKHFRPPXQDOOHYHOEHKLQG
WKHGULYLQJIRUFHV
4 7KH µGHVLUDELOLW\¶ RI WKH GHILQHG UHVSRQVH PHDVXUHV IURP D SROLWLFDO
SRLQWRIYLHZ
N 7KHGHSWKRIWKHDQDO\VLVLQSDUWLFXODUWKHVSDWLDODQGWHPSRUDOUHVROXWLRQRIWKHPRGHOV
XVHG LQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW DV ZHOO DV WKH OHYHO RI IXQGDPHQWDO SURFHVVHV WKDW FDQ EH
PRGHOOHG DUH VWURQJO\ OLPLWHG E\ GDWD DYDLODELOLW\ $V VXFK LQ FDVHV RI GDWDSRRU
FRQGLWLRQVDVWDUJHWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVWKHOHYHORIFRPSOH[LW\RIPRGHOVWKDWFDQUHOLDEO\
EH DFKLHYHG LV UHODWLYHO\ ORZ &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW SURYLGH
UHVXOWVWKDWDUHDYHUDJHGRYHUDFRQVLGHUDEOHUDQJHRIVSDFHDQGWLPHWRWKHQHJOHFWRI
ORFDOL]HGDQGWHPSRUDOHJVHDVRQDOFRQGLWLRQVWKDWPD\GLYHUJHIURPWKHDYHUDJH
N 7KH ,:3$ IUDPHZRUN SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV GRHV QRW SURYLGH D IL[HG VHW RI
PHWKRGRORJLHV5DWKHULWSURYLGHVDPHWKRGRORJLFDODQGFRQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUNXSRQ
ZKLFKDFDVHVWXG\VSHFLILFDSSURDFKPD\EHGHYHORSHG0XFKLVOHIWWKHUHIRUHWRWKH
MXGJHPHQW DQG H[SHULHQFH RI WKH DVVHVVRU WR PDNH D ILQDO FKRLFH RI PHWKRGV DQG
DSSURDFKHV WR EH DSSOLHG 7KLV FRXOG EH VHHQ DV D WKUHDW WR WKH VXFFHVVUDWH RI WKH
,:3$ EHFDXVH LW UHTXLUHV PXFK LQVLJKW DQG NQRZOHGJH IURP WKH DVVHVVRU LQ WKH
WHFKQLFDOSRVVLELOLWLHVDQGOLPLWDWLRQVRIWKHYDULRXVPHWKRGV
&KDSWHU
N 7KH SURSRVHG VROXWLRQV IRU WKH SROOXWLRQ SUREOHPV LQ WKH WZR UHVHDUFK FDVHV DUH
GLVFXVVHGRQDFRQFHSWXDOOHYHORQO\7KHOHYHORIGHWDLOSURYLGHGLQWKLVUHVSHFWFDQQRW
IXOO\DVFHUWDLQWKHWHFKQLFDODQGILQDQFLDOHFRQRPLFYLDELOLW\RIWKHVHVROXWLRQV
7KHVWUHQJWKVDQGZHDNQHVVHVLGHQWLILHGRIIHUYDULRXVRSSRUWXQLWLHVDQGFKDOOHQJHVIRUIXUWKHU
UHVHDUFKDVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQ
5HFRPPHQGDWLRQVIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFK
2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHFDVHVWXGLHVDQGWKHDERYHSUHVHQWHGDQDO\VLVRIWKHVWUHQJWKV
DQG ZHDNQHVVHV RI WKH ,:3$ IUDPHZRUN GHYHORSHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV WKH IROORZLQJ DGGLWLRQDO
UHVHDUFKZRUNPD\EHUHFRPPHQGHG
N 7KHFDVHVWXGLHVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVKDYHFOHDUO\LQYROYHGDQLWHUDWLYHDVVHVVPHQW
SURFHVVDQGWKHFRQFHSWXDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNSUHVHQWHGLQFKDSWHUKDV
HYROYHGGXULQJLWVFRXUVH0DQ\OHVVRQVFDQEHOHDUQWIURPWKHSHUIRUPLQJRIVXFKFDVH
VWXGLHV 7KH SUHVHQW VWDWXV RI WKH KHUH SURSRVHG ,:3$ DSSURDFK RIIHUV QHZ
RSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUIXUWKHUHYROYHPHQWRIFRQFHSWXDODQGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNVIRU
WKLV NLQG RI DVVHVVPHQW 7KH SHUIRUPLQJ RI IXUWKHU FDVH VWXGLHV LV WKHUHIRUH
UHFRPPHQGHG
N 7KHPDLQIRFXVRIWKLVVWXG\KDVEHHQRQWKHµGULYLQJIRUFHV¶µSUHVVXUHV¶DQGµVWDWH¶
HOHPHQWV RI WKH '36,5 IUDPHZRUN 7KH DVVHVVPHQW DSSURDFK IRU WKH LPSDFW DQG
UHVSRQVH HOHPHQWV RI WKH IUDPHZRUN FRXOG EH IXUWKHU VWUHQJWKHQHG WKURXJK
TXDQWLWDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJLHVZKLFKZRXOGDOORZIRUDSURSHUHYDOXDWLRQRI
WKHYDOXHVRIWKHZDWHUV\VWHPDVZHOODVRIWKHGHILQHGUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHV7KLVZRXOG
IXUWKHUHQKDQFHWKHYDOXHRIWKHIUDPHZRUNDVDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRRO
N $OWKRXJK FRQVLGHUHG LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\ WKH DVVHVVPHQW DSSURDFK DQG FDVH VWXGLHV
SUHVHQWHGLQWKLVWKHVLVIRFXVPHUHO\RQWKHWHFKQLFDODVSHFWVRIWKHSROOXWLRQSUREOHP
)RUIXWXUHUHVHDUFKWKHUHIRUHLWLVUHFRPPHQGHGWRGHYHORSDEURDGHUIUDPHZRUNIRU
DVVHVVPHQW LQFOXGLQJ LQ SDUWLFXODU VWDNHKROGHU LQYROYHPHQW DQG VRFLDO LPSDFW
DVVHVVPHQW
N 7KH PRGHOV DSSOLHG LQ WKLV WKHVLV DUH µVWDWLF¶ ZKLFK LPSOLHV WKDW WKH\ FDQQRW SUHGLFW
µH[WUHPHV¶ DQG VKRUWWHUP FKDQJHV ZKLFK PLJKW IRU H[DPSOH RFFXU DV D UHVXOW RI
VHDVRQDOYDULDWLRQVUDLQ\YHUVXVGU\VHDVRQ:KLOHWKHVWDWLFPRGHOVZHUHDSSURSULDWH
IRUWKHWDUJHWVHWIRUWKLVUHVHDUFKLWZRXOGEHXVHIXOWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRI
µG\QDPLF¶PRGHOVLQFRQQHFWLRQZLWKDQDVVHVVPHQWRIH[WUHPHYDOXHVDVIRUH[DPSOH
SURSRVHGE\.DU\GLV
N $V GHPRQVWUDWHG E\ WKLV UHVHDUFK WKH YDOLGDWLRQ RI UHVXOWV WKURXJK XQFHUWDLQW\ DQG
VHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVLVRIFUXFLDOLPSRUWDQFH7KHXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLV
WKHVLVGRHVQRWIROORZDVWUXFWXUHGPHWKRGRORJLFDOIUDPHZRUNIRUVXFKDVVHVVPHQWDQG
LWLVWKHUHIRUHUHFRPPHQGHGWKDWIXUWKHUUHVHDUFKZLOOSD\DWWHQWLRQWRWKHGHYHORSPHQW
RIVXFKIUDPHZRUN
,WLVQRWHGWKDWIUDPHZRUNVIRUXQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVIRUFHUWDLQDVSHFWVRI,:3$H[LVW)RUH[DPSOH9DQ$DUGHQQH
SUHVHQWVDIUDPHZRUNIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIXQFHUWDLQWLHVUHODWHGWRHPLVVLRQLQYHQWRULHVZKLFKZRXOGDOVREH
ODUJHO\DSSOLFDEOHWRLQYHQWRULHVRIGLVFKDUJHVIURPZDWHUSROOXWLRQVRXUFHV6WHS,LQWKH'36,5IUDPHZRUN±)LJXUH
)LQDO$QDO\VLVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
N 7KHDFWXDOSROLF\PDNLQJDVSHFWRIWKH,:3$DSSURDFKKDYHQRWEHHQFRQVLGHUHGLQ
DQ\GHWDLOLQWKLVWKHVLV7KURXJKRXWWKHSURFHVVLQWHUDFWLRQZLWKSROLF\DGYLVRUVKDV
EHHQ UHVWULFWHG WR FRQVXOWDWLRQV RQ WKH SUREOHP GHILQLWLRQ LQSXW GDWD DQG LQ FHUWDLQ
FDVHV D GLVFXVVLRQ RQ SRVVLEOH VROXWLRQV 7KH DFWXDO SROLF\PDNLQJ SURFHVV ZKLFK
ZRXOG LQYROYH PXFK ZLGHU SROLWLFDO DQG FURVVVHFWRUDO GLVFXVVLRQV KDV QRW EHHQ
HQWHUHGLQWR7KLVDVSHFWRIµEULGJLQJ¶EHWZHHQVFLHQWLILFUHVXOWVDQGSROLF\PDNLQJLVD
UHFRPPHQGHGDUHDIRUIXUWKHUUHVHDUFK
N 7KHWZRFDVHVWXGLHVKDYHLGHQWLILHGWKHPDLQIDFWRUVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHDVVHVVPHQW
ZKLFKDUHWKHSROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHVIRUGRPHVWLFDQGLQGXVWULDOSROOXWLRQODQGUXQRIIDQG
DWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQDQGWKHIDFWRURIQXWULHQWUHWHQWLRQLQZDWHUV\VWHPVZKLFKLV
SULPDULO\ GHWHUPLQHG E\ VHGLPHQWDWLRQ UHVXVSHQVLRQ 1IL[DWLRQ DQG GHQLWULILFDWLRQ
)XUWKHU UHVHDUFK LQFOXGLQJ H[SHULPHQWDO ZRUN WR GHWHUPLQH VXFK SDUDPHWHUV LV
UHFRPPHQGHG
N 2QWKHOHYHORIWKHFDVHVWXGLHVWKHSURSRVHGUHVSRQVHPHDVXUHVDUHIRUPXODWHGRQD
UDWKHUJHQHULFOHYHO7KHDFWXDOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIVXFKPHDVXUHVZRXOGUHTXLUHPXFK
PRUH GHWDLOHG VWXG\ DQG GHILQLWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI WKHLU WHFKQLFDO DQG
ILQDQFLDOHFRQRPLFYLDELOLW\7KHIXUWKHUGHWDLOLQJRIWKHVHPHDVXUHVWKHUHIRUHRSHQVXS
PDQ\RSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUIXUWKHUUHVHDUFKZLWKLQYDULRXVGLVFLSOLQDU\ILHOGV
5HIHUHQFHV
$UKRQGLWVLV * 7VLUWVLV * $QJHOLGLV 02 .DU\GLV 0 4XDQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH (IIHFWV RI 1RQSRLQW
1XWULHQW6RXUFHVWR&RDVWDO0DULQH(XWURSKLFDWLRQ$SSOLFDWLRQVWRD6HPL(QFORVHG*XOILQWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQ
6HD(FRORJLFDO0RGHOOLQJ
%HHWRQ $0 /DUJH )UHVKZDWHU ODNHV 3UHVHQW 6WDWH 7UHQGVDQG)XWXUH(QYLURQPHQWDO&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%RRWVPD+$+HFN\5(&RQVHUYDWLRQRIWKH*UHDW/DNHV$/LPQRORJLFDO3HUVSHFWLYH&RQVHUYDWLRQ
%LRORJ\
(($±(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDO$JHQF\6FHQDULRVDV7RROVRI,QWHUQDWLRQDO(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW
(QYLURQPHQWDO,VVXH5HSRUW1R(($&RSHQKDJHQ
)LQGHLVHQ:4XDGH(67KH0HWKRGRORJ\RI6\VWHPV$QDO\VLV$Q,QWURGXFWLRQDQG2YHUYLHZ,Q
0LVHU+-4XDGH(6(GV+DQGERRNRI6\VWHPV$QDO\VLV2YHUYLHZRI8VHV3URFHGXUHV$SSOLFDWLRQVDQG
3UDFWLFH-RKQ:LOH\6RQV&KLFKHVWHU
*RSKHQ02FKXPED3%23ROOLQJKHU8.DXIPDQ/61LOH3HUFK/DWHVQLORWLFXVLQYDVLRQLQ
/DNH 9LFWRULD (DVW $IULFD 9HUKDQGOXQJHQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDOH 9HUHLQLJXQJ IvU 7KHRUHWLVFKH XQG $QJHZDQGWH
/LPQRORJLH
*UDHGHO 7( $OOHQE\ %5 ,QGXVWULDO (FRORJ\ 3UHQWLFH +DOO ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6HULHV LQ ,QGXVWULDO DQG
6\VWHPV(QJLQHHULQJ3HDUVRQ(GXFDWLRQ,QF1HZ-HUVH\
+nNDQVRQ/2QWKH3ULQFLSOHVDQGIDFWRUV'HWHUPLQLQJWKH3UHGLFWLYH6XFFHVVRI(FRV\VWHP0RGHOV
ZLWKD)RFXVRQ/DNH(XWURSKLFDWLRQ0RGHOV(FRORJLFDO0RGHOOLQJ
+DUUHPRsV37KH&KDOOHQJHRI0DQDJLQJ:DWHUDQGPDWHULDO%DODQFHVLQ5HODWLRQWR(XWURSKLFDWLRQ
:DWHU6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\
+DYHQV .( )XNXVKLPD 7 ;LH 3 ,ZDNXPD 7 -DPHV 57 7DNDPXUD 1 +DQD]DWR 7 <DNDPRWR 7
1XWULHQW'\QDPLFVDQGWKH(XWURSKLFDWLRQRI6KDOORZODNHV.DVXPLJDXUD-DSDQ'RQJKX35&KLQD
DQG2NHHFKREHH86$(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQ
&KDSWHU
+HFN\ 5( 7KH (XWURSKLFDWLRQ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD 9HUKDQGOXQJHQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDOH 9HUHLQLJXQJ IU
7KHRUHWLVFKHXQG$QJHZDQGWH/LPQRORJLH
+RUGLMN/9DQ$DUGHQQH-.URH]H&,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW0RGHOVDQG8QFHUWDLQW\$QDO\VLV3DSHU
SUHVHQWHGDWWKH(),($:RUNVKRSRQ8QFHUWDLQW\3DUNKRWHO%DGHQ$XVWULD-XO\
,&,6,QWHUQDWLRQDO&HQWUHIRU,QWHJUDWLYH6WXGLHV,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW$%LUGV(\H¶V9LHZ0DDVWULFKW
8QLYHUVLW\0DDVWULFKWWKH1HWKHUODQGV
.DU\GLV (QYLURQPHQWDO 4XDOLW\ $VVHVVPHQW %DVHG RQ WKH $QDO\VLV RI ([WUHPH 9DOXHV $ 3UDFWLFDO
$SSURDFKIRU(YDOXDWLQJ(XWURSKLFDWLRQ-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO+HDOWK$
/RQLQ6$7XFKNRYHQNR<6:DWHU4XDOLW\0RGHOOLQJIRUWKH(FRV\VWHPRIWKH&LpQDJDGH7HVFD
&RDVWDO/DJRRQ(FRORJLFDO0RGHOOLQJ
/XQJ¶D\LD+6LWRNL/.HQ\DQ\D07KH1XWULHQW(QULFKPHQWRI/DNH9LFWRULD+\GURELRORJLD
0XJLGGH 5 7KH ,QFUHDVH LQ 3K\WRSODQNWRQ 3ULPDU\ 3URGXFWLYLW\ DQG %LRPDVV LQ /DNH 9LFWRULD
9HUKDOWHQ,QWHUQDWLRQDOHU9HUHLQLJXQJIU/LPQRORORJLH
2FKXPED 3% .LEDDUD ', 2EVHUYDWLRQVRQ%OXHJUHHQ$OJDO%ORRPVLQWKH2SHQ:DWHUVRI/DNH
9LFWRULD$IULFDQ-RXUQDORI(FRORJ\
5RWPDQV - 9DQ $VVHOW 0%$ 8QFHUWDLQW\ LQ ,QWHJUDWHG $VVHVVPHQW 0RGHOOLQJ $ /DE\ULQWK 3DWK
,QWHJUDWHG$VVHVVPHQW
6FKHUHQ3$*0$6\VWHPDWLF$SSURDFKWR/DNH:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQ/DNH
9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\WKH1HWKHUODQGV
7XUQHU 5. /RUHQ]RQL , %HDXPRQW 1 %DWHPDQ ,- /DQJIRUG ,+ 0F'RQQDOG $/ &RDVWDO
0DQDJHPHQWIRU6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW$QDO\VLQJ(QYLURQPHQWDODQG6RFLRHFRQRPLF&KDQJHVRQWKH8.
&RDVW7KH*HRJUDSKLFDO-RXUQDO
7XUQHU5.*HRUJLRX6*UHQ,0:XOII)%DUHWW66|GHUTYLVW7%DWHPDQ,-)RONH&/DQJDDV6
=\OLF] 7 0lOHU .* 0DUNRZVND $ 0DQDJLQJ 1XWULHQW )OX[HV DQG 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH %DOWLF DQ
,QWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\6LPXODWLRQ6WXG\(FRORJLFDO(FRQRPLFV
9DQ $DUGHQQH -$ 8QFHUWDLQWLHV LQ (PLVVLRQ ,QYHQWRULHV 3K' 7KHVLV :DJHQLQJHQ 8QLYHUVLW\ WKH
1HWKHUODQGV
9DQ $VVHOW 0 5RWPDQV - 9DQ (O]HQ 0 +LOGHULQN + 8QFHUWDLQW\ LQ ,QWHJUDWHG $VVHVVPHQW
0RGHOOLQJ±$&XOWXUDO3HUVSHFWLYHEDVH$SSURDFK*/2%25HSRUW6HULHV1R5,905HSRUW1R
9OLHJKH 3 $VVHVVPHQW RI WKH 9XOQHUDELOLW\ RI )LVKLQJ &RPPXQLWLHV 7RZDUGV ,QFUHDVLQJ 3ROOXWLRQ RI
/DNH9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD3UHVHQW6LWXDWLRQDQG6RFLRHFRQRPLF7UHQGV06F7KHVLV8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\
(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
)LQDO$QDO\VLVDQG'LVFXVVLRQ
$QQH[ 9DOLGDWLRQRILQGXVWULDO
SROOXWLRQLQWHQVLWLHV
7\SH
)DFWRU\
3URGXFWLRQ %2'IDFWRUNJW
8JDQGD
W\
0HDVXUHG
5$
%2'ORDGW\
0HDVXUHG
5$
&LW\$EDWWRLU
$EDWWRLU
-LQMD0XQLFLSDO$EDWWRLU
$EDWWRLU
'DLU\&RUSRUDWLRQ
'DLU\
.DNLUD6XJDU
6XJDU
,QWHUQDWLRQDO'LVWLOOHUV
:LQHLQGXVWULHV
8JDQGD%UHZHULHV
%UHZHU\
&HQWXU\%RWWOLQJ
6RIWGULQNV
&URZQ%RWWOHUV
6RIWGULQNV
7DQ]DQLD
1\DQ]D%RWWOLQJ
6RIWGULQNV
0ZDWH[
7H[WLOH
0ZDQ]D7DQQHULHV
7DQQHU\
*KDQD
$FFUD$EDWWRLU&RPSDQ\ $EDWWRLU
)LVKSURFHVVLQJ$FFUD
)LVKFDQQLQJ
*KDQD%UHZHU\,
%UHZHU\
*KDQD%UHZHU\,,
%UHZHU\
,YRU\&RDVW
$EDWWRLUG
$ELGMDQ
$EDWWRLU
6DSURODLW
(XURODLW
'DLU\
'DLU\
6DSOHG
'DLU\
5HDO
)LVKFDQQLQJ
3)&,
)LVKFDQQLQJ
6FRGL
)LVKFDQQLQJ
6LFRU
2LOZRUNV
2OHDWHFK
2LOZRUNV
6ROLEUD7UHLFKYLOOH
%UHZHU\
6,5
2LOUHILQHU\
8QLZD[
7H[WLOH
8JDQGD
&LW\$EDWWRLU
$EDWWRLU
-LQMD0XQLFLSDO$EDWWRLU
$EDWWRLU
'DLU\&RUSRUDWLRQ
'DLU\
7RWDO
9DOLGDWLRQRI,QGXVWULDO3ROOXWLRQ,QWHQVLWLHV
6RXUFHVRIGDWD
8JDQGD
'URUXJD15HSRUWRQWKH3XULILFDWLRQRI,QGXVWULDO:DVWH:DWHULQ8JDQGD0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQWDO
3URWHFWLRQ.DPSDOD8JDQGD
/DNH 9LFWRULD (QYLURQPHQWDO 3URJUDP 5HSRUW RI 1DWLRQDO :RUNLQJ *URXS 1R RQ 0DQDJHPHQW RI
:DWHU4XDOLW\DQG/DQG8VH,QFOXGLQJ:HWODQGV0LQLVWU\RI1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHV.DPSDOD8JDQGD
7DQ]DQLD
0DWRZR6(QYLURQPHQWDO6DQLWDWLRQLQ0ZDQ]D5HJLRQ0DML0ZDQ]D0ZDQ]D7DQ]DQLD0LQLVWU\RI
$JULFXOWXUHDQG/LYHVWRFN'HYHORSPHQW
%DVLF'DWD$JULFXOWXUDODQG/LYHVWRFN6HFWRU'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
*KDQD
(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ$JHQF\(3$*KDQD3HUVRQDO&RPPXQLFDWLRQ
.OHLQ - :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH $FFUD7HPD 0HWURSROLWD $UHD 6RXUFHV DQG ,PSDFWV 06F 7KHVLV
(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
,YRU\&RDVW
6HUYLFHSRXUO¶,QVSHFWLRQGHV,QGXVWULHV&ODVVLILpHV6,,&3HUVRQDO&RPPXQLFDWLRQ
2VVHYRRUW-6\VWHPDWLF$VVHVVPHQWRI:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQWKH(EULp/DJRRQ06F7KHVLV(LQGKRYHQ
8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
$QQH[
$QQH[ 1LWURJHQSURFHVVHVLQ
DTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPV
1LWURJHQSURFHVVHV
)LJXUH$SUHVHQWVDVFKHPDWLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHSURFHVVHVDQGUHODWLRQVLQYROYHGLQWKH
QLWURJHQF\FOHRIDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPV&HQWUDOLQWKHVFKHPHLVSK\WRSODQNWRQERXQGQLWURJHQ
1$ ZKLFK FDQ EH WDNHQ XS E\ DOJDO HLWKHU YLD SKRWRIL[DWLRQ RI LQRUJDQLF QLWURJHQ RU YLD
JDVHRXV 1IL[DWLRQ /RVV RFFXUV WKURXJK XSWDNH E\ ]RRSODQNWRQ GLUHFWO\ WKURXJK
VHGLPHQWDWLRQRUWKURXJKGHDWKLQZKLFKFDVHLWEHFRPHVSDUWRIGHWULWXVPDWHULDO
• )LJXUH$ 6FKHPDWLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRISURFHVVHVLQYROYHGLQWKHQLWURJHQF\FOHRIDTXDWLF
HFRV\VWHPV1$GHQRWHVDOOSK\WRSODQNWRQERXQGQLWURJHQDQG61GHQRWHGVHGLPHQWHGQLWURJHQ
LQDQ\IRUP
)URP)LJXUH$LWLVFOHDUWKDWDSDUWIURPWKHLQIORZRXWIORZRIQLWURJHQIURPDQGWRYDULRXV
H[WHUQDOQDWXUDODQGKXPDQVRXUFHVLQWHUQDOELRFKHPLFDOSURFHVVHVPD\DOVRSOD\DQLPSRUWDQW
UROHLQWKHRYHUDOOQLWURJHQEDODQFHRIDQDTXHRXVHFRV\VWHP7KHPDLQPHFKDQLVPVIRUWKLV
DUH
x 7KH IL[DWLRQ RI JDVHRXV QLWURJHQ 1 E\ EOXHJUHHQ DOJDO VSHFLHV DOVR FDOOHG
F\DQREDFWHULDRUUHYHUVLEO\
x 7UDQVIRUPDWLRQRI12LQWR1WKURXJKGHQLWULILFDWLRQ
1LWURJHQ3URFHVVHVLQ$TXDWLF(FRV\VWHPV
7KHJDVHRXVH[FKDQJHSURFHVVHVRI1Š1IL[DWLRQDQGGHQLWULILFDWLRQŠFDQEHLPSRUWDQW
VRXUFHVDQGVLQNVRIIL[HGQLWURJHQLQDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPVDQGDUHLQWKDWUHVSHFWHVVHQWLDOO\
RSSRVLWHSURFHVVHVGHQLWULILFDWLRQUHPRYHVIL[HGQLWURJHQPDLQO\DV1ZKLOH1IL[DWLRQLVD
VRXUFHRIIL[HGQLWURJHQ7KHWZRSURFHVVHVDUHRIWHQLPSRUWDQWHOHPHQWVLQWKH1EDODQFHRI
DTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPV$GHVFULSWLRQRIWKHVHWZRSURFHVVHVLVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV
'HQLWULILFDWLRQ
'HQLWULILFDWLRQ LV UHODWHG WR WKH GHJUDGDWLRQ RI RUJDQLF PDWWHU DV LW VLQNV WKURXJK WKH ZDWHU
FROXPQ ,Q QHDUVXUIDFH HQYLURQPHQWV R[LF PLQHUDOL]DWLRQ UHOHDVH RI RUJDQLFDOO\ ERXQG
QXWULHQWVDQGQLWULILFDWLRQFRQYHUWRUJDQLFDOO\ERXQGQLWURJHQWRQLWUDWH+RZHYHUWKHVLQNLQJ
DQGR[LGDWLRQRIRUJDQLFPDWWHUGHSOHWHVWKH2FRQWHQWRIZDWHUDQGDGHSWKLVUHDFKHGZKHUH
WKHUH LV LQVXIILFLHQW 2 WR R[LGL]H DOO RI WKH RUJDQLF PDWWHU ,Q VXFK FLUFXPVWDQFHV WKH
GHJUDGDWLRQRIRUJDQLFPDWWHUFRQWLQXRXVE\PHDQVRIGHQLWULILFDWLRQ
%LRORJLFDOGHQLWULILFDWLRQLQYROYHVWKHPLFURELDOUHGXFWLRQRIQLWUDWHWRQLWULWHDQGXOWLPDWHO\
QLWULWHWRQLWURJHQJDVZKLFKFDQEHORVWIURPWKHV\VWHP1LWUDWHDQGQLWULWHUHSODFHR[\JHQIRU
PLFURELDO UHVSLUDWLRQ LQ WKLV UHDFWLRQ DV VXFK GHQLWULILFDWLRQ LV FRPPRQO\ WKRXJKW WR RFFXU
RQO\LQWKHDEVHQFHRIPROHFXODUR[\JHQ7KHFRQGLWLRQVVXLWDEOHIRUGHQLWULILFDWLRQŠR[\JHQ
LVDEVHQWEXWQLWUDWHLVSUHVHQWŠDUHFRPPRQO\UHIHUUHGWRDVDQR[LF
6LQFH GHQLWULILFDWLRQ LQYROYHV WKH WUDQVIHURIHOHFWURQVIURPGRQRUWRDFFHSWRUKDOIUHDFWLRQV
FDQ EH XVHG WR GHYHORS WKH VWRLFKLRPHWULF HTXDWLRQV +DOIUHDFWLRQ HTXDWLRQV IRU QLWUDWH DQG
QLWULWHDVHOHFWURQDFFHSWRUVDUHDVIROORZV
(TXDWLRQ$
o 1 + 2 12 + H 
(TXDWLRQ$
o 1 + 2 12 + H 
5HGXFWLRQ RI WKH HOHFWURQ DFFHSWRUV UHTXLUHV DQ HOHFWURQ GRQRU ZKLFK FDQ EH DQ RUJDQLF
VXEVWUDWHLQWKHZDWHU)RUH[DPSOHWKHKDOIUHDFWLRQHTXDWLRQRIPHWKDQRODVDQHOHFWURQGRQRU
LV
(TXDWLRQ$
o &2 + H &22+ + 2 
$FRPELQDWLRQRIWKHDERYHUHDFWLRQVOHDGVIRUQLWUDWHWRWKHHTXDWLRQ
(TXDWLRQ$
o &2 1 + 2 2+ 12 &22+ 
,Q QDWXUDO ZDWHU V\VWHPV WKH FDUERQLF DFLG EXIIHULQJ V\VWHP LV WKH GRPLQDQW LQRUJDQLF
FRPSRQHQW LQ ZDWHU &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH K\GUR[LGH SURGXFHG GXULQJ WKH GHQLWULILFDWLRQ LQ
QDWXUDO ZDWHUV ZLOO UHDFW ZLWK FDUERQLF DFLG WR SURGXFH ELFDUERQDWH LRQV 7KH IROORZLQJ
UHDFWLRQWDNHVWKLVFRQYHUVLRQLQWRDFFRXQW
$QQH[
(TXDWLRQ$
o 1 + 2 +&2 12 &22+ + &2 
7KH GHQLWULILFDWLRQ SURFHVV LV RUGLQDULO\ PRGHOOHG DV D ILUVW RUGHU SURFHVV LWV UDWHGHSHQGLQJ
PDLQO\ RQ WHPSHUDWXUH DQG WKH R[\JHQ QLWUDWH DQG RUJDQLF VXEVWUDWH 6 FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LQ
ZDWHU7KHSURFHVVLVRIWHQZULWWHQDV
(TXDWLRQ$
'Q
)1 N 'Q
1 x'Q7x
'Q
'Q
'Q
. P12
. P2
. P6
x
x
x& 12 'Q
'Q
'Q
. P2&2 . P12& 12 . P6& 6
ZKHUH )1'Q >PROPV@ UHSUHVHQWV WKH QLWURJHQ IOX[ IURP GHQLWULILFDWLRQ N 1'Q >V@ LV WKH
GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWH FRHIILFLHQW DW R& 'Q7 >@ UHSUHVHQWV WKH WHPSHUDWXUH GHSHQGHQFH
'Q
>PROP@ LV WKH KDOI VDWXUDWLRQ FRQVWDQW IRU R[\JHQ
IXQFWLRQ RI GHQLWULILFDWLRQ DQG . P2
GHSHQGHQFH RI WKH GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWH +DOIVDWXUDWLRQ FRQVWDQWV IRU QLWUDWH DQG RUJDQLF
VXEVWUDWHDUHGHILQHGVLPLODUO\7KHWHPSHUDWXUHGHSHQGHQFHIXQFWLRQLVJHQHUDOO\ZULWWHQDV
(TXDWLRQ$
'Q7 6 7'Q LQZKLFK'Q>Hƒ&@LVWKHWHPSHUDWXUHFRHIILFLHQWIRUGHQLWULILFDWLRQ$VGHQLWULILFDWLRQRFFXUV
'Q
LVVPDOOLWLVQRUPDOO\FRQILQHGWRWKHVHGLPHQWOD\HU
RQO\DWORZR[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQ N P2
([FHVV1IRUPHGE\GHQLWULILFDWLRQFDQEHORVWWRWKHDWPRVSKHUHWKURXJKGHVRUSWLRQIURPWKH
ZDWHUVXUIDFH1RWDOO1LVORVWLQWKLVZD\KRZHYHU3DUWRILWZLOOEHUHERXQGHGDVQXWULHQWV
E\1IL[LQJEOXHJUHHQDOJDH
'HQLWULILFDWLRQRFFXUVLQHVVHQWLDOO\DOOULYHUVODNHVDQGPDULQHDTXDWLFV\VWHPV(VWLPDWHVRI
DFWXDO GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWHV YDU\ ZLGHO\ WKURXJKRXW UHSRUWHG FDVHV 7KH ODWWHU LV KLJKO\
XQGHUVWDQGDEOH ZKHQ FRQVLGHULQJ (TXDWLRQ $ ZKLFK GHPRQVWUDWHV WKH GHSHQGHQFH RI WKH
GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWH RQ WHPSHUDWXUH DV ZHOO DV R[\JHQ QLWUDWH DQG VXEVWUDWH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV
2YHUYLHZVRIGDWDRQGHQLWULILFDWLRQLQDTXDWLFV\VWHPVDUHSUHVHQWHGE\6HLW]LQJHUDQG
DQG6HLW]LQJHUDQG.URH]H
5HSRUWHGUDWHVRIGHQLWULILFDWLRQLQODNHVHGLPHQWVUDQJHIURPWR—PROPK7KHKLJKHVW
UDWHV DUH PHDVXUHG LQ HXWURSKLF ODNHV ,Q DGGLWLRQ GHQLWULILFDWLRQ DOVR RFFXUV LQ ORZ R[\JHQ
K\SROLPQHWLF ZDWHUV ZKHUH UDWHV UDQJH IURP WR —PROGPK ,Q ODNHV ZKHUH
GHQLWULILFDWLRQLQERWKWKHZDWHUDQGVHGLPHQWVKDVEHHQGHWHUPLQHGGHQLWULILFDWLRQLVDOZD\V
JUHDWHULQWKHVHGLPHQWVRQDYROXPHEDVLVHYHQE\DWOHDVWDQRUGHURIPDJQLWXGH7KHRYHUDOO
UDWHRIGHQLWULILFDWLRQIRUODNHVUDQJHGIURPWRRIWKHWRWDOH[WHUQDO1LQSXWWRWKHODNH
)RUULYHUVDQGVWUHDPVHVWLPDWHVRIGHQLWULILFDWLRQUDWHVUDQJHIURPWR—PROPKZKLFK
UHODWHVWRDVXEVHTXHQWUHPRYDORIWRRI1LQSXW)RUHVWXDULHVGHQLWULILFDWLRQUDWHVYDU\
H[WUHPHO\ZLGHO\IURPWR—PROPK6HLW]LQJHUKRZHYHUIRXQGDVXUSULVLQJO\
VWURQJ FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ H[WHUQDO 1 ORDGLQJ UDWHV DQG GHQLWULILFDWLRQ ZKHUH GHQLWULILFDWLRQ
UHPRYHG D UHODWLYHO\ FRQVWDQW SHUFHQWDJH RI WR RI H[WHUQDO 'LVVROYHG ,QRUJDQLF
1LWURJHQ',1IURPWKHV\VWHPZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIRQHHVWXDU\
1LWURJHQ3URFHVVHVLQ$TXDWLF(FRV\VWHPV
1)L[DWLRQ
$WPRVSKHULFQLWURJHQFDQEHIL[HGGLUHFWO\E\FHUWDLQRUJDQLVPVVXFKDVF\DQREDFWHULD'LUHFW
ELRORJLFDO IL[DWLRQ RI 1 RFFXUV ZKHQ RWKHU IRUPV RI LQRUJDQLF QLWURJHQ DUH XQDYDLODEOH LQ
VROXWLRQ7KLVODFNRILQRUJDQLFQLWURJHQSURYRNHVSK\VLRORJLFDODQGELRFKHPLFDOFKDQJHVLQ
RUJDQLVPVZKLFKJLYHVWKHPWKHDELOLW\WRIL[DWPRVSKHULF1
7KH NLQHWLFV RI 1IL[DWLRQ DUH JHQHUDOO\ FRQVLGHUHG WR EH VLPLODU WR WKH FRPPRQ XSWDNH RI
QXWULHQWVE\DOJDO8SWDNHLVFRQVLGHUHGWREHDIXQFWLRQRIERWKWKHDFWXDOQXWULHQWFRQWHQWRID
FHOODQGWKHH[WHUQDOVROXEOHUHDFWLYHQXWULHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQWKHPHGLXPVXUURXQGLQJWKHFHOO
ZDWHU 7KH GHSHQGHQFH RQ WKH H[WHUQDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQ LV RIWHQ GHVFULEHG DV D 0LFKDHOLV
0HQWHQUHODWLRQVHHHJ9DQVWHHQNLVWH-¡UJHQVHQDQG*URPLHF6RPO\RG\DQG
YDQ6WUDWHQ-DQVHDQG$OGHQEHUJ
(TXDWLRQ$
41PD[41
&
)
)
x ) 1
3 1 3 1PD[ x87 x8,x
41PD[41PLQ . P1& 1
+HUH Y 1) >PRO1PRO&V@LVWKHQLWURJHQXSWDNHUDWHGXHWRIL[DWLRQ Y 1) PD[ >PRO1PRO&V@
LV WKH PD[LPXP XSWDNH UDWH 87 DQG 8, >@ DUH WHPSHUDWXUH DQG OLJKW OLPLWDWLRQ IDFWRUV
UHVSHFWLYHO\41>PRO1PRO&@LVWKHQLWURJHQFRQWHQWRIWKHFHOORU
FHOOTXRWD
41PD[DQG
41PLQ >PRO 1PRO &@ WKH PD[LPXP DQG PLQLPXP QLWURJHQ FHOO FRQWHQW UHVSHFWLYHO\ DQG
)
. P1
>PRO1P@WKHKDOIVDWXUDWLRQFRQVWDQWIRU1OLPLWHGXSWDNH87LVGHILQHGVLPLODUWR
(TXDWLRQ$DQG8,LVJLYHQE\
(TXDWLRQ$ 8 , ,
,V
ª § ,
·º
«H[S¨¨ ¸¸» ¹¼
¬ © ,V
ZKHUH,UHSUHVHQWVWKHLQFRPLQJVRODUUDGLDWLRQGXULQJWKHGD\OLJKWSKRWRSHULRGIDQG,VLVWKH
VDWXUDWLRQ OLJKW LQWHQVLW\ IRU 1IL[DWLRQ 7KH HYHQWXDO IL[DWLRQ UDWH WKXV GHSHQGV RQ
WHPSHUDWXUHDQGOLJKWWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI1LQWKHZDWHUDQGWKHµFHOOTXRWD¶
%LRORJLFDO1IL[DWLRQUDWHVLQROLJRWURSKLFDQGPHVRWURSKLFODNHVDUHJHQHUDOO\ORZDQGUDUHO\
DFFRXQW IRU PRUH WKDQ RI 1 LQSXWV 6HLW]LQJHU ,Q HXWURSKLF V\VWHPV KRZHYHU
F\DQREDFWHULDDUHRIWHQPRUHDEXQGDQWUHVXOWLQJLQPXFKKLJKHU1IL[DWLRQUDWHV)LJXUH$
SUHVHQWVGDWDRQ1IL[DWLRQDQGGHQLWULILFDWLRQIRUDQXPEHURIODNHVDQGHVWXDULHVDVSUHVHQWHG
E\ 6HLW]LQJHU 2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKLV RYHUYLHZ 6HLW]LQJHU FRQFOXGHG WKDW 1
IL[DWLRQ UDWHV DUH LQ JHQHUDO DW OHDVW D IDFWRU WZR ORZHU WKDQ GHQLWULILFDWLRQ UDWHV UHVXOWLQJ
WKHUHZLWK LQ D QHW ORVV IURP WKH V\VWHP 7KH H[FHSWLRQ (/$ FRQFHUQV DQ
H[SHULPHQWDOO\ HXWURSKLHG ODNH ZLWK D YHU\ ORZ 13 UDWLR E\ DWRPV DQG VKRXOG QRW EH
FRQVLGHUHGUHSUHVHQWDWLYH0RUHRYHU1IL[DWLRQLQHVWXDULHVVHHPVWREHPXFKOHVVLPSRUWDQW
WKDQ IRU ODNHV ,W VKRXOG KRZHYHU EH QRWHG WKDW 6HLW]LQJHU¶V DVVHVVPHQW ZDV EDVHG XSRQ D
OLPLWHGQXPEHURIREVHUYDWLRQVDQGFDQWKHUHIRUHQRWEHDFFHSWHGDVDUXOH
$QQH[
/D
1IL[DWLRQ'HQLWULILFDWLRQ>—PROP K@
NH
2
NH
HF
KR
/D
EH
NH
H
0
HQ
GR
/D
WD
NH
:
LQ
(/
JU
$
D
(/
$ /D
NH
0
1D
LFK
UUD
LJ
JD
DQ
QV
HW
W%
2
FK
D\
OR
FN
RQ
HH
%D
OWLF
6
HD
'HQLWULILFDWLRQ
1IL[DWLRQ
• )LJXUH$ 1IL[DWLRQUDWHVDQGGHQLWULILFDWLRQUDWHVUHSRUWHGIRUYDULRXVODNHVDQGHVWXDULHV
%DVHGRQ6HLW]LQJHU
5HIHUHQFHV
-DQVH-+$OGHQEHUJ73&/RRVD(XWURSKLFDWLRQ0RGHORIWKH/RRVGUHFKW/DNHV1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI
3XEOLF+HDOWKDQG(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ5,90%LOWKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
-¡UJHQVHQ 6( *URPLHF 0- 0DWKHPDWLFDO 6XEPRGHOV LQ :DWHU 4XDOLW\ 6\VWHPV (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH
3XEOLVKHUV%9$PVWHUGDP
6HLW]LQJHU 63 'HQLWULILFDWLRQ LQ )UHVKZDWHU DQG &RDVWDO 0DULQH (FRV\VWHPV (FRORJLFDO DQG
*HRFKHPLFDO6LJQLILFDQFH/LPQRORJ\DQG2FHDRQRJUDSK\
6HLW]LQJHU 63 'HQLWULILFDWLRQ LQ $TXDWLF 6HGLPHQWV ,Q 5HYVEHFK 13 6¡UHQVHQ - (GV
'HQLWULILFDWLRQLQ6RLODQG6HGLPHQW3OHQXP3UHVV1HZ<RUN
6HLW]LQJHU63.URH]H&*OREDO'LVWULEXWLRQRI1LWURXV2[LGH3URGXFWLRQDQG1,QSWVLQ)UHVKZDWHU
DQG&RDVWDO0DULQH(FRV\VWHPV*OREDO%LRJHRFKHPLFDO&\FOHV
6RPO\RG\/YDQ6WUDWHQ*0RGHOLQJDQG0DQDJLQJ6KDOORZ/DNH(XWURSKLFDWLRQ:LWK$SSOLFDWLRQWR
/DNH%DODWRQ6SULQJHU9HUODJ%HUOLQ
9DQVWHHQNLVWH*&0RGHOLQJ,GHQWLILFDWLRQDQG&RQWUROLQ(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV3URFHHGLQJVRI,),3
:RUNLQJ&RQIHUHQFHRQ0RGHOLQJDQG6LPXODWLRQRI/DQG$LUDQG:DWHU5HVRXUFHV6\VWHPV*KHQW%HOJLXP
$XJ6HSW1RUWK+ROODQG3XEOLVKLQJ&RPSDQ\$PVWHUGDP1HZ<RUN2[IRUG
1LWURJHQ3URFHVVHVLQ$TXDWLF(FRV\VWHPV
/LVWRIDEEUHYLDWLRQV
DF
$FWLYHFRPSRQHQW
%2'
%LRORJLFDO2[\JHQ'HPDQG
%2'
GD\%LRORJLFDO2[\JHQ'HPDQG
%27
%XLOG2SHUDWH7UDQVIHU
&
&DUERQ
&$
&DWFKPHQW$UHD
&%1
&HQWUDO%DQNRI1LJHULD
&,$3
&OLPDWLF,PSDFW$VVHVVPHQW3URJUDP
&2'
&KHPLFDO2[\JHQ'HPDQG
&2;
&DUERQR[LGHV
&8
$JURFKHPLFDOVFRQWDLQLQJFRSSHU
''7
'LFKORURGLSKHQ\OWULFKORURHWKDQH
',1
'LVVROYHG,QRUJDQLF1LWURJHQ
'2
'LVVROYHG2[\JHQ
'20
'LVVROYHG2UJDQLF0DWWHU
'36,5
'ULYLQJ)RUFHV±3UHVVXUH±6WDWH±,PSDFWIUDPHZRUNIRUHQYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQW
'&6
'HFLVLRQ6XSSRUW6\VWHP
(($
(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDO$JHQF\
(),($
(XURSHDQ)RUXPRQ,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW
(3$
(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ$JHQF\RI*KDQD
(6(0
(DUWK6\VWHPV(QJLQHHULQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW
(8
(XURSHDQ8QLRQ
)$2
)LVKHULHVDQG$JULFXOWXUDO2UJDQL]DWLRQRIWKH8QLWHGQDWLRQV
*'3
*URVV'RPHVWLF3URGXFW
*()
*OREDO(QYLURQPHQWDO)DFLOLW\
*(6$03
*URXSRI([SHUWVRQWKH6FLHQWLILF$VSHFWVRI0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ
*,:$
*OREDO,QWHUQDWLRQDO:DWHUV$VVHVVPHQW
*'3
*URVV'RPHVWLF3URGXFW
*13
*URVV1DWLRQDO3URGXFW
*2*
*XOIRI*XLQHD
+&
+\GURFDUERQV
KK
+RXVHKROG
,$($
,QWHUQDWLRQDO$WRPLF(QHUJ\$JHQF\
,&,6
,QWHUQDWLRQDO&HQWUHIRU,QWHJUDWLYH6WXGLHV±8QLYHUVLW\RI0DDVWULFKW
,($
,QWHJUDWHG(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQW
,,$6$
,QWHUQDWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHIRU$SSOLHG6\VWHPV$QDO\VLV
,02
,QWHUQDWLRQDO0DULWLPH2UJDQLVDWLRQ
,2&
,QWHUQDWLRQDO2FHDQRJUDSKLF&RPPLWWHH
/LVWRI$EEUHYLDWLRQV
,3&&
,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH
,6(0
,QWHUQDWLRQDO6RFLHW\IRU(FRORJLFDO0RGHOOLQJ
,6,&
,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WDQGDUG,QGXVWULDO&ODVVLILFDWLRQ
,:3$
,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQW
/0(
/DUJH0DULQH(FRV\VWHP
/8
/LYHVWRFN8QLW
/9(03
/DNH9LFWRULD(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW3URJUDP
/9)2
/DNH9LFWRULD)LVKHULHV2UJDQLVDWLRQ
1
1LWURJHQ
1$
,QRUJDQLF1LWURJHQ
1(5,
1DWLRQDO(QYLURQPHQWDO5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWHRI7DQ]DQLD
1*2
1RQ*RYHUQPHQWDO2UJDQLVDWLRQ
12[
1LWURJHQ2[LGHV
2$
2WKHUDJURFKHPLFDOV
2&3
2UJDQRFKORULQH3HVWLFLGHV
2(&'
2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU(FRQRPLF&RRSHUDWLRQDQG'HYHORSPHQW
3
3KRVSKRURXV
3&%
3RO\FKORULQDWHG%LSKHQ\O
365
3UHVVXUH±6WDWH±5HVSRQVHIUDPHZRUNIRUHQYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQW
5$
5DSLG$VVHVVPHQW
6
2UJDQLF6XEVWUDWH
6,,&
6HUYLFHSRXUO¶,QVSHFWLRQGHV,QGXVWULHV&ODVLILpHV
61
6HGLPHQW1LWURJHQ
62[
6XOSKXUR[LGHV
66
6XVSHQGHG6ROLGV
653
6ROXEOH5HDFWLYH3KRVSKRURXV
7&0%
7DQ]DQLD&RWWRQ0DUNHWLQJ%RDUG
7'1
7RWDO'LVVROYHG1LWURJHQ
7'3
7RWDO'LVVROYHG3KRVSKRURXV
7,1
7RWDO,QRUJDQLF1LWURJHQ
71
7RWDO1LWURJHQ
73
7RWDO3KRVSKRURXV
8.
8QLWHG.LQJGRP
81'3
8QLWHG1DWLRQV'HYHORSPHQW3URJUDP
81(3
8QLWHG1DWLRQV(QYLURQPHQW3URJUDP
81(6&2
8QLWHG1DWLRQV(GXFDWLRQDO6FLHQWLILFDQG&XOWXUDO2UJDQL]DWLRQ
81,'2
8QLWHG1DWLRQV,QGXVWULDO'HYHORSPHQW2UJDQLVDWLRQ
86$
8QLWHG6WDWHVRI$PHULFD
:+2
:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQLVDWLRQ
:02
:RUOG0HWHRURORJLFDO2UJDQL]DWLRQ
:7$
:LOOLQJQHVVWR$FFHSW
:73
:LOOLQJQHVVWR3D\
/LVWRI$EEUHYLDWLRQV
/LVWRIV\PEROV
6\PERO
8QLW
(TXDWLRQV
'HVFULSWLRQ
:DWHUVKHGDUHD
$ZV
&$
NP
JP &RQFHQWUDWLRQRISROOXWDQW$LQWKHZDWHUERG\
& $L JP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQRISROOXWDQW$LQVHJPHQWLLQDZDWHUERG\
& $V U D L r JP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQRISROOXWDQW$LQVHDVULYHUVUDWPRVSKHULF
GHSRVLWLRQDDQGQHLJKERXULQJVHJPHQWVL“
& $ JP
,QLWLDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQRISROOXWDQW$DWW R
& $66 JP
&RQFHQWUDWLRQRISROOXWDQWV$DWVWHDG\VWDWHFRQGLWLRQV
'
'Q7
'SRS
(&ULY
(&ZV
P
'LVWDQFHEHWZHHQGLVFKDUJHSRLQWDQGODNHVKRUH
$
7HPSHUDWXUHGHSHQGHQFHIXQFWLRQRIGHQLWULILFDWLRQ
NP
3RSXODWLRQGHQVLW\
5LYHUUHWHQWLRQIUDFWLRQ
:DWHUVKHGUHWHQWLRQIUDFWLRQ
)1'Q PROP V $
1LWURJHQIOX[IURPGHQLWULILFDWLRQ
IXUEDQ
K
+
+L
,
,V
.
.$
)UDFWLRQXUEDQSRSXODWLRQRIWKHWRWDOSRSXODWLRQ
0XOWLSOHRIWKHHVWLPDWLRQHUURU
P
'HSWKRIWKHZDWHUERG\
$YHUDJHGHSWKRIVHJPHQWLRIDZDWHUERG\
P
P(P V $
,QFRPLQJVRODUUDGLDWLRQGXULQJWKHGD\OLJKWSHULRG
P(PV $
6DWXUDWLRQOLJKWLQWHQVLW\IRU1IL[DWLRQ
V
'HFD\UDWHIRU%2'
\
2YHUDOOORVVUDWHRIQXWULHQW$
. $L \
2YHUDOOORVVUDWHRIQXWULHQW$LQVHJPHQWLRIDZDWHUERG\
)
. P1
PROP
$
+DOIVDWXUDWLRQFRQVWDQWIRU1OLPLWHG1IL[DWLRQ
'Q
. P12
PROP
$
+DOIVDWXUDWLRQ FRQVWDQW IRU QLWUDWH GHSHQGHQFH RI WKH
GHQLWULILFDWLRQUDWH
'Q
. P2
PROP
$
+DOIVDWXUDWLRQ FRQVWDQW IRU R[\JHQ GHSHQGHQFH RI WKH
GHQLWULILFDWLRQUDWH
'Q
. P6
PROP
$
+DOIVDWXUDWLRQ FRQVWDQW IRU RUJDQLF VXEVWUDWH GHSHQGHQFH RI
WKHGHQLWULILFDWLRQUDWH
N 1'Q V
$
'HQLWULILFDWLRQUDWHFRHIILFLHQWDWR&
/
JP
'RZQVWUHDP%2'
/LVWRI6\PEROV
6\PERO
(TXDWLRQV
'HVFULSWLRQ
JP %2'DWWKHSRLQWRIGLVFKDUJH
H[S
1 ',1
NJ\
5LYHU',1H[SRUW
H[S
1 12
NJ\
5LYHU12H[SRUW
P\
+\GUDXOLFORDGLQJRIWKHV\VWHP
P\
/
T
TL
4HY
4LQ
8QLW
+\GUDXOLFORDGLQJRIWKHV\VWHPLQVHJPHQWLRIDZDWHUERG\
P \
(YDSRUDWLRQUDWH
P\
,QIORZ
,QIORZLQWRVHJPHQWLRIDZDWHUERG\IURPVHDVULYHUVU
DWPRVSKHULF GHSRVLWLRQ D RU IURP QHLJKERXULQJ VHJPHQWV
L“
4LQV U D L r P \
41PD[
41PLQ
4RXW
PROPRO $
0D[LPXPQLWURJHQFHOOFRQWHQW
PROPRO $
0LQLPXPQLWURJHQFHOOFRQWHQW
P \
2XWIORZ
L
4RXW
P\
2XWIORZIURPVHJPHQWL
4U
5$
P\
5DLQIDOO
J\
5DWHRIORVVSURFHVVHVWKURXJKZKLFKSROOXWDQW$LVµORVW¶IURP
WKHV\VWHP
5 $L J\
5DWHRIORVVSURFHVVHVLQVHJPHQWLRIDZDWHUERG\
UV
V
V
V
6$
6UXQRII
W
JP\
6HGLPHQWDWLRQUDWH
W\
(VWLPDWLRQHUURU
W\
1HJDWLYHPRGHOHUURU
W\
3RVLWLYHPRGHOHUURU
&RQFHQWUDWLRQRIQXWULHQW$LQVHGLPHQW
P P \
7RWDOZDWHUUXQRII
\
7LPH
WG
\
+\GUDXOLFGHWHQWLRQWLPH
W GL \
'HWHQWLRQWLPHIRUVHJPHQWLRIDZDWHUERG\
8,
87
9
$
/LJKWOLPLWDWLRQIDFWRUIRU1IL[DWLRQ
$
7HPSHUDWXUHOLPLWDWLRQIDFWRUIRU1IL[DWLRQ
P
9ROXPH
9L
Y
P
9ROXPHLQVHJPHQWLRIDZDWHUERG\
PV
5LYHUIORZYHORFLW\
Y L$ P\
1HW VHGLPHQWDWLRQ YHORFLW\ RI SROOXWDQW $ LQ VHJPHQW L RI D
ZDWHUERG\
Y 1) PROPRO $
1LWURJHQXSWDNHUDWHIURPIL[DWLRQ
Y 1) PD[ PROPRO $
0D[LPXPQLWURJHQXSWDNHUDWHIURPIL[DWLRQ
PJJ
/LVWRI6\PEROV
6\PERO
8QLW
(TXDWLRQV
'HVFULSWLRQ
Y V$ P\
1HW VHGLPHQWDWLRQ UDWH IRU SROOXWDQW $ VHGLPHQWDWLRQ ±
UHVXVSHQVLRQ
:
:$
W\
W\
7RWDOORDGRISROOXWDQW$
:DVWHORDG
: $GHSRVLWLRQ W\
/RDGRISROOXWDQW$IURPDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
: $GRPHVWLF W\
/RDGRISROOXWDQW$IURPGRPHVWLFVRXUFHV
: $L W\
7RWDOORDGRISROOXWDQW$LQVHJPHQWLWRDZDWHUERG\
: $LQGXVWULDO W\
/RDGRISROOXWDQW$IURPLQGXVWULDOVRXUFHV
: $UXQRII W\
/RDGRISROOXWDQW$IURPODQGUXQRIIDQGOHDFKLQJ
:DG$
:IHUW$
:KLJK
:ORZ
:PO
:SV$
1UHWDLQHG
W\
:DWHUVKHGDYHUDJHG1ORDGVIURPDWPRVSKHULFGHSRVLWLRQ
W\
:DWHUVKHGDYHUDJHG1ORDGVIURPIHUWLOL]HUDSSOLFDWLRQ
W\
+LJKHVWSRVVLEOHZDVWHORDG
W\
/RZHVWSRVVLEOHZDVWHORDG
W\
0RVWOLNHO\ZDVWHORDG
W\
:DWHUVKHGDYHUDJHG1ORDGVIURPSRLQWVRXUFHV
ORVV LQSXW PLQXV RXWSXW RI 1 LQ D ZDWHU V\VWHP ZKLFK
LQFOXGHV WKH MRLQW HIIHFWV RI VHGLPHQWDWLRQ UHVXVSHQVLRQ DQG
GHQLWULILFDWLRQ
L
1 UHWDLQHG
ORVV LQSXW PLQXV RXWSXW RI 1 LQ VHJPHQW L RI D ZDWHU
V\VWHP ZKLFK LQFOXGHV WKH MRLQW HIIHFWV RI VHGLPHQWDWLRQ
UHVXVSHQVLRQDQGGHQLWULILFDWLRQ
¦$
'Q
&KDUDFWHULVWLFWLPHIRUUHVSRQVHWRDVWHSLQSXW
$
7HPSHUDWXUHFRHIILFLHQWIRUGHQLWULILFDWLRQ
\
ƒ&
H /LVWRI6\PEROV
&XUULFXOXPYLWDH
3HWHU6FKHUHQZDVERUQLQ(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGRQWKHWKRI$SULO,QKH
FRPSOHWHGKLVVHFRQGDU\HGXFDWLRQDWWKH6DQFWD0DULD&ROOHJHLQ.HUNUDGH)LYH\HDUVODWHU
LQ KH REWDLQHG KLV 06F LQ &KHPLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ DW (LQGKRYHQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
7HFKQRORJ\ +LV PDMRU VXEMHFWV ZHUH SRO\PHU FKHPLVWU\ DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO WHFKQRORJ\
'XULQJKLVVWXG\3HWHUZDVDFWLYHLQYDULRXVH[WUDFXUULFXODUDFWLYLWLHV$PRQJRWKHUVKHZDV
D ERDUG PHPEHU RI WKH &KHPLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ GHSDUWPHQW¶V VWXG\ DVVRFLDWLRQ µ-DSLH¶ DQG
VHFUHWDU\RIWKHWUDYHOIXQGRIWKH5R\DO'XWFK&KHPLVWU\$VVRFLDWLRQ.1&90RUHRYHUKH
FRRUJDQLVHGVHYHUDOLQWHUQDWLRQDOHYHQWVVXFKDVDVWXG\WRXUWR6RXWK.RUHDDQG-DSDQDQGD
(XURSHDQ VWXGHQW FRQIHUHQFH LQ (LQGKRYHQ 'XULQJ KLV VWXG\ KH ZRUNHG IRU D PRQWKV
ZRUNLQJSHULRGDW9LQDPXO/WGLQWKH8QLWHG.LQJGRPDQGVWXGLHGIRUPRQWKVDW6\GQH\
8QLYHUVLW\LQ$XVWUDOLDZKHUHKHFRPSOHWHGKLV06FJUDGXDWLRQUHVHDUFK
)URPWRHDUO\3HWHUZRUNHGDVDUHVHDUFKHUDWWKH7123ULQV0DXULW]/DERUDWRULXP
LQ5LMVZLMN,Q$SULOKHUHWXUQHGWR(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\DVDUHVHDUFKHU
$,2 IRU D SHULRG RI WZR \HDUV 'XULQJ WKLV SHULRG KH VWXGLHG YDULRXV DVSHFWV RI
HQYLURQPHQWDO VFLHQFHV DQG WHFKQRORJ\ DVVLVWHG LQ WKH VHWXS RI D SURJUDP RI FRRSHUDWLRQ
EHWZHHQ (LQGKRYHQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 7HFKQRORJ\ DQG WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 'DU HV 6DODDP DQG
FRQGXFWHGUHVHDUFKRQWKHZDWHUSROOXWLRQRI/DNH9LFWRULD7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHODWWHUVWXG\IRUP
WKHLQLWLDOEDVLVIRUWKLVGLVVHUWDWLRQ
6LQFH 3HWHU KDV EHHQ ZRUNLQJ RQ YDULRXV DVVLJQPHQWV LQFOXGLQJ D SRVLWLRQ ZLWK WKH
5R\DO'XWFK,QVWLWXWHIRU)UHVKZDWHU0DQDJHPHQWDQG:DVWHZDWHU7UHDWPHQW5,=$DQGDQ
DVVLJQPHQW ZLWK WKH 8QLWHG1DWLRQV,QGXVWULDO'HYHORSPHQW2UJDQL]DWLRQ81,'2'XULQJ
WKHODWWHUKHOLYHGDQGZRUNHGDEURDGIRUWZRSHULRGVRI\HDUVHDFKLQ(DVW-HUXVDOHPDVD
SURMHFW FRRUGLQDWRU DQG LQGXVWULDO GHYHORSPHQW DGYLVRU IRU WKH 3DOHVWLQLDQ 2FFXSLHG
7HUULWRULHVDQGLQ,YRU\&RDVWDVDQDVVLVWDQWSURMHFWPDQDJHUDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOH[SHUWIRU
WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD /DUJH 0DULQH (FRV\VWHP 3URMHFW 3UHVHQWO\ 3HWHU LV HPSOR\HG E\ WKH
FRQVXOWLQJ ILUP 5R\DO +DVNRQLQJ DV D SURMHFW PDQDJHU DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO H[SHUW IRU
LQWHUQDWLRQDOSURMHFWV'XULQJWKHVHDVVLJQPHQWV3HWHUFRQWLQXHGWRZRUNRQKLV3K'EDVHG
XSRQ WKH UHVHDUFK ZRUN VWDUWHG GXULQJ KLV $,2 DVVLJQPHQW DW (LQGKRYHQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
7HFKQRORJ\FRPELQLQJWKHSUDFWLFDOH[SHULHQFHRIKLVZRUNZLWKVFLHQWLILFSHUVSHFWLYHV
&XUULFXOXP9LWDH
3XEOLFDWLRQV
3XEOLFDWLRQVUHODWHGWRWKLVWKHVLV
x 3$6FKHUHQ-&%RVERRP.11MDX5DSLG$VVHVVPHQW:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQWKH&DWFKPHQW$UHDRI
/DNH 9LFWRULD 7DQ]DQLD &HQWHU IRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RRSHUDWLRQ $FWLYLWLHV (LQGKRYHQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 7HFKQRORJ\
,6%1
x 3$6FKHUHQ-&%RVERRP.11MDX$0/HPPHQV$VVHVVPHQWRI:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQWKH&DWFKPHQW
$UHDRI/DNH9LFWRULD7DQ]DQLD-RXUQDORI(DVWHUQ$IULFDQ5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW9ROXPH
x 3$ 6FKHUHQ $ 6\VWHPDWLF $SSURDFK WR /DNH :DWHU SROOXWLRQ $VVHVVPHQW :DWHU 3ROOXWLRQ LQ /DNH
9LFWRULD(DVW$IULFD(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\,6%1
x 3$6FKHUHQ+$=DQWLQJ$0/HPPHQV(VWLPDWLRQRI:DWHU3ROOXWLRQLQ/DNH9LFWRULD$SSOLFDWLRQ
DQG(ODERUDWLRQRIWKH5DSLG$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGRORJ\-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDO0DQDJHPHQW9ROXPH x $0 /HPPHQV 3$ 6FKHUHQ +$ =DQWLQJ *- 1MDX '- YDQ +RUHQ ,QGXVWU\ DQG (QYLURQPHQW
0HWKRGRORJLHV IRU (QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW LQ 'DWD 3RRU 6LWXDWLRQV 3DSHU 3UHVHQWHG DW WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&RQIHUHQFHRQWKH,QGXVWULDO3HUIRUPDQFHRI7DQ]DQLD-XQH(LQGKRYHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
x $0 /HPPHQV +$ =DQWLQJ 3$ 6FKHUHQ -+ .DWLPD -6 %DOLUZD ): %XJHQ\L $ 5DSLG
$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGRORJ\IRU(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQ,QYHQWRU\LQ7DQ]DQLD/DNH9LFWRULD&DWFKPHQW$UHDDVD
&DVH6WXG\3DSHUSUHVHQWHGDWWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO6\PSRVLXPRQ(QJLQHHULQJIRU6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW -XO\'DUHV6DODDP7DQ]DQLD
x 3$ 6FKHUHQ &RHGLWRU LQ ,EH $& 2WHQJ<HERDK $$ =DEL 6* ' $IRODEL (GV ,QWHJUDWHG
(QYLURQPHQWDO DQG /LYLQJ 5HVRXUFHV 0DQDJHPHQW LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH )LUVW 5HJLRQDO
6\PSRVLXPRQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD/DUJH0DULQH(FRV\VWHP-DQXDU\,6%1
x 3$ 6FKHUHQ (FRORJLFDOO\ 6XVWDLQDEOH 'HYHORSPHQW (6,' LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD 3URFHHGLQJV RI D
5HJLRQDO:RUNVKRSKHOGLQ$FFUD*KDQD-DQXDU\
x 3$6FKHUHQ90LUDPER$0/HPPHQV)--DQVVHQ<..DWLPD$VVHVVPHQWRI3ROOXWLRQ6RXUFHV
DQG 6RFLRHFRQRPLF &LUFXPVWDQFHV UHODWHG WR WKH (XWURSKLFDWLRQ RI /DNH 9LFWRULD 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH /DNH
9LFWRULDV\PSRVLXPLQ.DPSDOD8JDQGD0D\
x 3$ 6FKHUHQ $& ,EH (QYLURQPHQWDO 3ROOXWLRQ LQ WKH *XOI RI *XLQHD ± $ 5HJLRQDO $SSURDFK ,Q
0F*ODGH-0&XUU\3.RUDQJWHQJ.$+DUGPDQ0RXQWIRUGV1-(GV7KH*XOIRI*XLQHD/DUJH0DULQH
(FRV\VWHP(QYLURQPHQWDO)RUFLQJ6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQWRI0DULQH5HVRXUFHV(OVHYLHU6FLHQFH3XEOLVKHUV
WKH1HWKHUODQGV,6%1
x $0 /HPPHQV 3$ 6FKHUHQ +$ =DQWLQJ *- 1MDX '- YDQ +RUHQ ,QGXVWU\ DQG (QYLURQPHQW
0HWKRGRORJLHV IRU (QYLURQPHQWDO $VVHVVPHQW LQ 'DWD 3RRU 6LWXDWLRQV ,Q 6]LUPDL $ /DSHUUH 3 (GV 7KH
LQGXVWULDO([SHULHQFHRI7DQ]DQLD3DOJUDYH3XEOLVKHUV1HZ<RUN,6%1 x 3$6FKHUHQ$&,EH)--DQVVHQ$0/HPPHQV(QYLURQPHQWDO3ROOXWLRQLQWKH*XOIRI*XLQHD $
5HJLRQDO$SSURDFK0DULQH3ROOXWLRQ%XOOHWLQ9ROXPH
x 3$6FKHUHQ&.URH]H)--DQVVHQ/+RUGLMN)-3WDVLQVNL,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU3ROOXWLRQ$VVHVVPHQWRI
WKH(EULp/DJRRQ&{WHG¶,YRLUH:HVW$IULFDVXEPLWWHGWR-RXUQDORI0DULQH6\VWHPV 2WKHUSXEOLFDWLRQV
x 3$ 6FKHUHQ 7HVWLQJ WKH 3VHXGR%XON &KDLQOHQJWKGHSHQGHQW 7HUPLQDWLRQ 0RGHO RQ 6W\UHQH ,QW ,,,
(PXOVLRQ 3RO\PHULVDWLRQ ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW $GGHG ,QHUW 'LOXHQW 06F 7KHVLV (LQGKRYHQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
7HFKQRORJ\WKH1HWKHUODQGV
x 3$ 6FKHUHQ *7 5XVVHOO ') 6DQJVWHU 5* *LOEHUW $/ *HUPDQ &KDLQ /HQJWK'HSHQGHQW
7HUPLQDWLRQ5DWH3URFHVVHVLQ)UHH5DGLFDO3RO\PHUL]DWLRQV6W\UHQH3RO\PHUL]DWLRQVZLWKDQGZLWKRXW$GGHG
,QHUW'LOXHQWDVDQ([SHULPHQWDO7HVWRI0RGHO0DFURPROHFXOHVYROXPH 3XEOLFDWLRQV