decision analysis

Project
Management
Slide 1
Project Planning, Scheduling,
and Controlling
Project Planning
1. Setting goals
2. Defining the project
3. Tying needs into timed project
activities
4. Organizing the team
Time/cost estimates
Budgets
Engineering diagrams
Cash flow charts
Material availability details
Project Scheduling
1. Tying resources to specific
activities
2. Relating activities to each other
3. Updating and revising on a
regular basis
CPM/PERT
Gantt charts
Milestone charts
Cash flow schedules
Project Controlling
1. Monitoring resources, costs, quality,
and budgets
2. Revising and changing plans
3. Shifting resources to meet demands
Before Project
Reports
• budgets
• delayed activities
• slack activities
During Project
Slide 2
Slide 3
Project Scheduling:

Gantt Chart

PERT/ CPM
• Project Scheduling with Known Activity
Times
• Project Scheduling with Uncertain
Activity Times
• Considering Time-Cost Trade-Off
• PERT/Cost
Slide 4
First Step: Define the activities in the project &
establish the proper precedence relationships.
Example: Moving the Global Oil’s Credit Card Operation
_______________________________________________________________________
Activity
Immediate
Activity
Activity
Description
Predecessor
Time(weeks)
_______________________________________________________________________
A
Select office site
3
B
Create org. & financial plan
5
C
Determine personnel requirements
B
3
D
Design Facility
A, C
4
E
Construct interior
D
8
F
Select Personnel to move
C
2
G
Hire new employees
F
4
H
Move records, key personnel, etc.
F
2
I
Make financial arrangements
B
5
J
Train new personnel
H, E, G
3
_______________________________________________________________________
Slide 5
Gantt Chart

Simplicity and clear graphical display for recordkeeping of progression in time of the subtasks of a
project.

Activity is listed on vertical axis. Time is on the
horizontal axis. Actual duration of each activity
represents by a bar.

Indicate the earliest possible starting time for each
activity
Slide 6
Gantt Chart
A Select site
B Plan
C Personnel Req.
D Design
E Construct
F Select personnel
G Hire
H Move
I Financial arrange.
J Train
0
At week 13, D, E, H are behind schedule
but G is ahead of schedule.
5
10 12 13 15
(weeks)
20
25
Slide 7
Drawbacks of Gantt Chart

Fails to give important information on whether the
overall project is being delayed from the target
schedule.

Fails to reveal which activities are “immediate
predecessors” of other activities. From the chart, it
seems that F and I are immediate predecessors of
G(but ,in fact, it’s only F).
Slide 8
PERT/CPM
PERT:
CPM:




Program Evaluation and Review
Technique
Critical Path Method
Graphically displays project activities.
Estimates how long the project will take.
Indicates most critical activities.
Show where delays will not affect project.
Slide 9
Applications of PERT/CPM

Used to plan, schedule, and control a wide variety
of projects:
•
•
•
•
•
Construction of plants, building, and highways,
Maintenance of large and complex equipment,
Design and installation of a new systems,
R & D of new products and processes,
etc.
Slide 10
PERT/CPM can help to answer the following questions:





1. What is the total time to complete the project?
2. What are the scheduled start and finish
dates for each specific activity ?
3. Which activities are “critical” and must be
completed exactly as scheduled in order to
keep the project on schedule?
4. How long can “non-critical” activities be
delayed before they cause an increase in the
total project time ?
5. How might resources be used on activities to
speed up project completion?
Slide 11
The Pert/CPM Critical Part Procedure

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3
Develop a list of the activities that make
up the project.
Determine the immediate predecessors
for each activity in the project.
Estimate the completion time for each
activity.
» With known activity times
» With uncertainty activity times
Slide 12

Step 4
Draw a project network
Method 1: Activity-on-Node (AON)
» Each activity is represented by a node in the
network.
» A precedence relationship between two
activities is represented by and arc or link
between the two.
» May be less error prone because it does not
need dummy activities or arcs.
Slide 13

Step 4
Draw a project network
Method 2: Activity-on-Arc (AOA)
» The arcs of the network represent the
activities.
» The nodes of the network represent points in
time when an activity or a group of activities
have been completed.
» The nodes are numbered so that each
activity begins at a lower numbered node
and ends at a higher numbered node.
» Dummy activities having 0 completion times
can be created to help indicate that the
proper set of activities has been completed
prior to the start of another activity.
Slide 14
AOA Network Conventions
1
a
3
2
1
c
4
1
a
c
4
b
a
1
3
b
d
5
3
c
4
2
b
3
2
a
b
2
c
4
Dummy
activity
Slide 15
Example: Moving the Global Oil’s Credit Card Operation
_______________________________________________________________________
Activity
Immediate
Activity
Activity
Description
Predecessor
Time(weeks)
_______________________________________________________________________
A
Select office site
3
B
Create org. & financial plan
5
C
Determine personnel requirements
B
3
D
Design Facility
A, C
4
E
Construct interior
D
8
F
Select Personnel to move
C
2
G
Hire new employees
F
4
H
Move records, key personnel, etc.
F
2
I
Make financial arrangements
B
5
J
Train new personnel
H, E, G
3
_______________________________________________________________________
Slide 16
Project Network of Global Oil’ s Credit Card Operations
(AON)
Construct
Select size
Design
A
D
Personnel
Start requirement C
Hire
Select
Personnel
F
B
E
Train
G
J
Finish
Move
H
Plan
I
Financial
arrangement
Slide 17
Project Network of Global Oil’ s Credit Card Operations
(AOA)
D
2
5
Design
E
Construct
A
Select size
H
6
F
1
4
B
G
Select
Personnel
Personnel
C requirement
J
Move
Hire
7
Train
9
8
I
Financial arrangement
Plan
3
Slide 18

Step 5
Determine the earliest start and the
earliest finish time for each activity by
making a forward pass through the
network. The earliest finish time for
the last activity in the project identifies
the total time required to complete the
project.
Slide 19
Let
ES
EF
t
= earliest start time for an activity
= earliest finish time for an activity
= time
The earliest finish time for any activity is
EF = ES + t
Earliest Start Time Rule
The earliest start time for an activity is equal to
the largest of the earliest finish times for all of
its immediate predecessors.
Slide 20
ES
D 8 12
4
EF
5
2
A 0
3
E 12 20
8
3
F 8
2
1
10
6
H 10 12
2
7
J 20 23
3
Train
9
G 10 14
4
4
8
B
5
0
5
C
3
5 8
I 5 10
5
3
Slide 21

Step 6
Use the project completion time as
the latest finish time for the last
activity and make a backward pass
through the network to identify the
latest start and latest finish time for
each activity
Slide 22
Let
LS
LF
t
= latest start time for an activity
= latest finish time for an activity
= time
The latest start time for any activity is
LS = LF - t
Latest Finish Time Rule:
The latest finish time for an activity is the
smallest of the latest start times for all activities
that immediately follow the activity.
Slide 23
ES
D 8 12
4 8 12
EF
5
2
A 0 3
3 5 8
1
E 12 20
8 12 20
F 8 10
2 14 16
4
6
H 10 12
2 18 20
7
J 20 23
3 20 23
9
G 10 14
4 16 20
8
B
5
0
0
5
5
C 5 8
3 5 8
3
I 5 10
5 18 23
LS
LF
Slide 24

Step 7

Step 8

Step 9
Use the difference between the latest
start time and the earlier start time for
each activity to determine the slack for
the activity.
Find the activities with zero slack;
these are the critical path activities.
Use the information from steps 5 and
6 to develop the activity schedule for
the project.
Slide 25
Earliest Latest Earliest Latest
Start
Start
Finish
Finish Slack Critical
Activity
(ES)
(LS)
(EF)
(LF) (LS - ES) Path ?
____________________________________________________________
A
0
5
3
8
5
No
B
0
0
5
5
0
Yes
C
5
5
8
8
0
Yes
D
8
8
12
12
0
Yes
E
12
12
20
20
0
Yes
F
8
14
10
16
6
No
G
10
16
14
20
6
No
H
10
18
12
20
8
No
I
5
18
10
23
13
No
J
20
20
23
23
0
Yes
_____________________________________________________________
Slide 26
ES
D 8 12
4 8 12
EF
5
2
A 0 3
3 5 8
1
E 12 20
8 12 20
F 8 10
2 14 16
4
6
H 10 12
2 18 20
7
J 20 23
3 20 23
9
G 10 14
4 16 20
8
B
5
0
0
5
5
C 5 8
3 5 8
3
I 5 10
5 18 23
LS
LF
Slide 27
Contributions of PERT/CPM

1.
How long will the project take to complete ?

2.
What are the scheduled start and completion times
for each activity?

3.
Which activities are critical and must be completed
exactly as scheduled in order to keep the project on
schedule?

4.
How long can non-critical activities be delayed
before they cause an increase in the completion time
for the project?
Slide 28
Example:
“Super” Vacuum Cleaner Project
_______________________________________________________________________
Activity
Immediate
Activity
Description
Predecessor
_______________________________________________________________________
A
Design “Super”
B
Built prototype Units
A
C
Perform tests of prototype
B
D
Estimate material costs
A
E
Refine “Super” design
C, D
F
Demonstrate “Super” to customer
E
G
Estimate labor costs
D
H
Prepare technical proposal
E
I
Deliver proposal to customer
G, H
_______________________________________________________________________
Activity
Time(days)
20
10
8
11
7
6
12
13
5
Slide 29
EF = ES + t
ES
EF
A 0 20
20
1
a
B 20 30
10
2
D 20 31
11
b
C 30 38
8
3
d
c
E 38 45
7
4
6
e
H 45 58
13
Dummy
5
F 45 51
6
g
8
f
h
i
7
I 58 63
5
G 31 43
12
Slide 30
Critical Activity
Critical Path : a-b-c-e-h-i
A 0 20
20 0 20
1
B 20 30
10 20 30
2
a
b
3
d
D 20 31
11 27 38
LS
C 30 38
8 30 38
4
F 45 51
6 57 63
6
e
g
8
f
H 45 58 h
13 45 58
Dummy
5
LF
c
E 38 45
7 38 45
i
7
I 58 63
5 58 63
G 31 43
12 46 58
LS = LF - t
Slide 31
Earliest Latest Earliest Latest
Start
Start
Finish
Finish Slack Critica
Activity
(ES)
(LS)
(EF)
(LF) (LS - ES) Path ?
____________________________________________________________
A
0
0
20
20
0
Yes
B
20
20
30
30
0
Yes
C
30
30
38
38
0
Yes
D
20
27
31
38
7
No
E
38
38
45
45
0
Yes
F
45
57
51
63
12
No
G
31
46
43
58
15
No
H
45
45
58
58
0
Yes
I
58
58
63
63
0
Yes
____________________________________________________________
Slide 32
Example: Building a park consists of nine activities. The activities
and their immediate predecessors are shown. Develop the project
network.
Activity
Immediate Predecessor Activity Time (weeks)
A
9
B
6
C
A,B
6
D
A,B
3
E
B
0
F
C
3
G
D
2
H
D,F
6
I
E,G,H
3
a) What is the critical path for this network?
b) Show the activity schedule for this project.
c) If the governor wants to open the park within 6 months from the
starting time. Is it possible?
Slide 33