Social-ecological systems in practice –
understanding the potential for use in
UK marine policy and management
Kieran Hyder, Hannah Tidbury, Tiziana Luisetti, Stuart Corney,
Eugene Murphy & many others
Centre for Environment, Fisheries & Aquaculture Science
[email protected], @kieranhyder
MSEAS 2016, Brest, France,30 May – 3 June 2016
Outline
• Role of models in decision making
• Uptake of models by decision makers
• Lessons learned from ecosystem &
bioeconomic modelling
• Potential for use of social-ecological
models in UK decision making
© Beth Fulton, CSIRO, Australia
Science is complex, but so are policy & management
Complexity
Scale
MSFD
CFP
WFD
Etc.
Resources
Models have an important role to play
Co-creation
Role of models in the science-policy interface
“Social processes encompassing relations between scientists & other actors in the
policy process, & allow for exchanges, co-evolution, & joint construction of
knowledge to enrich decision-making” (Hove 2007, Futures 39: 807–826)
Data
Models
Evidence
generation
Evidence
Sciencepolicy
interface
Impact
Knowledge
Models contribute to the evidence-base
Decision
Time is right for social-ecological models (SEMS)
• Models integrating social, economics &
governance with ecosystems are
exceptions – become the rule?
• Marine ecosystems & human activity
transcends scales (e.g. El Nino), so need
integration across scales
• Decision makers likely to perceive an
increase in complexity & uncertainty, &
resistant to change
Fulton et al. (2011) Fish and Fisheries 12, 2–17.
Corney et al (in prep.). The need for marine ecosystemsociety models in an era of rapid change.
Models are important, but uptake limited in UK
• Models central to delivering policy &
management challenges (e.g.
ecosystem approaches)
• Models developed, but limited uptake
• Challenges:
• Lost in translation
• Currency & uncertainty
• Confidence, legitimacy, & quality
• Scales (spatial & temporal)
What can we learn from other models?
UK ecosystem models – uptake & use
Physical
(e.g. NEMO)
Ocean BGC
(e.g. MEDUSA)
Shelf model
(e.g. ERSEM)
Food webs
(e.g. EwE)
Size-based
(e.g. LEMANS)
System
(e.g. ATLANTIS)
• Multidisciplinary workshop (policy
questions, model summaries,
mapped models, & socio-ec)
• Many issues can already be
addressed (e.g. attribution,
integration, indicators, & costs)
• Multi-model ensembles possible,
but unclear how
• Gaps identified to be assessed in
context of other models
• Link to social & economics as
policy couched in these terms
Coupled Models = physical + biological
(e.g. NEMO-ERSEM)
Hyder et al (2015). Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community
and ecosystem models to policy development & management. Marine Policy 62:291-302
http://www.masts.ac.uk/research/marine-ecosystem-modelling
UK bioeconomic models – uptake & use
• Bioeconomic modelling has important but
unclear role in decision making
• Workshop - concepts, challenges, & case
studies
• Outcomes:
Generic fisheries bioeconomic model schema
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bioeconomic models needed
Good examples exist, but not well publicised
Common / shared language – ecosystem services
Social factors are difficult to quantify & model
Social sciences role in modelling process
Lack of skills – training programmes
Hyder et al (in prep.). Is bioeconomic modelling an essential tool for
future marine policy and management decisions?. Marine Policy
Common themes that are applicable to SEMs
• Awareness & understanding
• Specific challenges
• Timely outputs
• Co-development
• Confidence
• Skills
Learn from other models
Potential for using SEMs in UK decision making
• Potential – publicise success stories
• Co-develop – multidisciplinary community
• Funding – specific challenges
• Confidence – transparency & quality
• Skills gap – training programmes
• Social sciences – communication space
• Other disciplines – differences in uptake
Tett et al (2012) Ecology & Society 17: 16
Engage with decision makers now
Summary
• Social-ecological models have an important role
to play in marine policy & management
• Workshops linking UK ecosystem & bioeconomic
modelling to policy & management described
• Common challenges for uptake & use of models
in the UK that apply to SEMs
• To maximise potential of SEMs in UK, need to
learn from other fields & engage with decision
makers early
Don’t be an ‘anti-social’ scientist
Acknowledgements – many contributors
Axel Rossberg, Icarus Allen, Mel Austen, Hayley Bannister, Rosa Barciela, Paul Blackwell, Julia Blanchard, Mike Burrows, Emma
Defriez, Tarquin Dorrington, Karen Edwards, Bernardo Garcia-Carreras, Michael Heath, Deborah Hembury, Johanna Heymans,
James Hewlett, Jason Holt, Jennifer Houle, Simon Jennings, Irene Lorenzoni, Tiziana Luisettti, Steve Mackinson, Stephen Malcolm,
Simon Mardle, Ruaraidh McPike, Laurence Mee, David Mills, Caron Montgomery, Dean Pearson, John Pinnegar, Marilena Pollicino,
Ekaterina Popova, Tavis Potts, Louise Rae, Stuart Rogers, Douglas Speirs, Michael Spence, Robert Thorpe, Hannah Tidbury, Kerry
Turner, Johan van der Molen, Andrew Yool, Tom Webb, David Paterson & workshop attendees
Funded by Cefas (DP348) & Defra
(ME5248, SLA15, SLA33)