Dr. Y. İlker TOPCU www.ilkertopcu.net www.ilkertopcu.org www.ilkertopcu.info facebook.com/yitopcu twitter.com/yitopcu instagram.com/yitopcu Dr. Özgür KABAK web.itu.edu.tr/kabak/ MADM Methods Elementary Methods Value Based Methods Multi Attribute Value Theory Simple Additive Weighting Weighted Product TOPSIS Outranking Methods AHP/ANP Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 2 MAVT vs. MAUT Multi Attribute Value Theory (Evren & Ülengin, 1992; Kirkwood, 1997) – Weighted Value Function (Belton & Vickers, 1990)– SMARTS (Simple Multi Attribute Rating Technique by Swings) (Kirkwood, 1997) Multi Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) is treated separately from MAVT when “risks” or “uncertainties” have a significant role in the definition and assessment of alternatives (Korhonen et al., 1992; Vincke, 1986; Dyer et al., 1992): The preferences of DM is represented for each attribute i, by a (marginal) function Ui, such that a is better than b for i iff Ui(a)>Ui(b) These functions (Ui) are aggregated in a unique function U (representing the global preferences of the DM) so that the initial MA problem is replaced by a unicriterion problem. Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 3 MAVT This procedure is appropriate when there are multiple, conflicting objectives and no uncertainty about the outcome (performance value w.r.t. attribute) of each alternative In order to determine which alternative is most preferred, tradeoffs among attributes must be considered: That is alternatives can be ranked if some procedure is used to combine all attributes into a single index of overall desirability (global preference) of an alternative: A value function combines the multiple evaluation measures (attributes) into a single measure of the overall value of each alternative Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 4 MAVT: Value Function Value function is a weighted sum of functions over each individual attribute: n v(ai) = w v (x j 1 j j ij ) Thus, determining a value function requires that: Single dimensional (single attribute) value functions (vj) be specified for each attribute Weights (wj) be specified for each single dimensional value function By using the determined value function preferences can be modeled: a P b v(a) > v(b); a I b v(a) = v(b) Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 5 Single Dimensional Value Function One of the procedures used for determining a single dimensional value function that is made up of segments of straight lines that are joined together into a piecewise linear function, while the other procedure utilized a specific mathematical form called the exponential for the single dimensional value function v(the best performance value) = 1 v(the worst performance value) = 0 Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 6 Piecewise Linear Function Consider the increments in value that result from each successive increase (decrease) in the performance score of a benefit (cost) attribute, and place these increments in order of successively increasing value increments Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 7 Value function value EXAMPLE: 1-5 scale for a benefit attribute Suppose that value increment between 1 and 2 is twice as great as that between 2 and 3. Suppose that value increment between 2 and 3 is as great as that between 3 and 4 and as great as that between 4 and 5. In this case piecewise linear single dimensional value functions would be: v(1)=0, v(2)=0+2x, v(3)=2x+x, v(4)=3x+x, and v(5)=4x+x=1 v(1)=0, v(2)=0.4, v(3)=0.6, v(4)=0.8, and v(5)=1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 Performance value Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 8 Exponential Function Appropriate when performance scores take any value (an infinite number of different values) For benefit attributes: vj(xij) = 1 exp ( x x ) / ij j , * 1 exp ( x x )/ j j x x j ij , otherwise * x j x j where is the exponential constant for the value function Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 9 Exponential Function For cost attributes: vj(xij) = 1 exp ( x x ) / ij j , * 1 exp ( x x )/ j j x x ij j , otherwise * x j x j Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 10 Exponential Constant For benefit attribute z0.5 = (xm – x ) / ( x* – x j ) j j For cost attribute z0.5 = ( x – xm) / ( x – x* ) j j j are used (where xm is the midvalue determined by DM such that v(xm)=0.5) to calculate z0.5 (the normalized value of xm) The equation [0.5 = (1 – exp(–z0.5 / R)) / (1 – exp(–1 / R))] or Table 4.2. at p. 69 in Kirkwood (1997) is used to calculate R (normalized exponential constant) MDM06Table = R ( x* – x ) j j is used to calculate Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 11 Value function value Exponential Functions 1 1 5 0.8 0.6 0.4 5 1 0.2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Value function value Performance value 1 1 5 0.8 0.6 0.4 5 1 0.2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Performance Value Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 12 Example for MAVT Price: Exponential single dimensional value function Other: Piecewise linear single dim. value function Let the best performance value for price is 100 m.u., the worst performance value for price is 350 m.u., and the midvalue is 250 m.u.: z0.5=0.4 R = 1.216 = 304 vp(300)=0.2705, vp(250)=0.5, vp(200)=0.6947, vp(100)=1 Suppose that value increment for comfort between “average” and “excellent” is triple as great as that between “weak” and “average”: vc(weak)=0, vc(average)=0.25, vc(excellent)=1 Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 13 Example for MAVT Suppose that value increment for performance between “weak” and “average” is as great as that between “average” and “excellent”: va(weak)=0, va(average)=0.5, va(excellent)=1 Suppose that value increment for design between “ordinary” and “superior” is four times as great as that between “inferior” and “ordinary”: vc(inferior)=0, vc(ordinary)=0.2, vc(superior)=1 Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) 14 Values of Global Value Function and Single Dimensional Value Functions a2 Price 0,3333 0,2705 0,5 Comfort 0,2667 1 1 Perf. 0,2 1 0,5 Design 0,2 1 1 a3 0,5 0,25 1 1 0,6333 a4 0,6947 0,25 1 0,2 0,5382 a5 0,6947 0,25 0,5 1 0,5982 a6 0,6947 0 1 1 0,6315 a7 1 0 0,5 0,2 0,4733 Norm. w a1 Dr. Y. İlker Topcu (www.ilkertopcu.net) & Dr. Özgür Kabak ([email protected]) v(ai) 0,7569 0,7334 15
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