Optimal Entry Mode and Technology Transfer of FDI with Differentiated Products Ho-Chyuan Chen Department of Risk Management and Insurance National Kaohsiung First University of Science & Technology, Taiwan Mei-Fang Chung Department of International Economics, Kun Shan University of Technology Abstract This paper employs a three-stage game to analyze the effect of product differentiation on the foreign firm’s technology transfer and entry mode and on the host welfare. It finds that lower differentiation induces higher (lower) technology transfer given a sufficiently low (high) transfer cost. Secondly, given sufficiently low transfer costs, acquisition induces less technology transfer than direct entry and the foreign firm would prefer acquisition, and the probability of those decrease in differentiation. Probability for the equilibrium mode of acquisition to induce higher technology (than direct entry) decreases in differentiation. Thirdly, the equilibrium entry mode more likely results in less technology transfer and host welfare (than the off-equilibrium mode). Fourthly, the government and the foreign firm prefer identical entry mode only when transfer cost is within some certain intermediate levels. But probability of that is always less than half and generally decreases in differentiation. Keywords: Entry mode; technology transfer; differentiation; FDI; acquisition Corresponding author: Ho-Chyuan Chen, Professor of Economics at Department of Risk Management and Insurance, National Kaohsiung First University of Science & Technology, No.2, Jhuoyue Rd., Nanzih District, Kaohsiung City 811, Taiwan. Tel: 886-7-6011000 ext.3024; Fax: 886-7-6011020; E-mail: [email protected]. 1 1. Introduction The issue of technology transfer and entry mode of foreign firms has gained increasing attention, because the enormous growth in FDI has significantly increased the number of multinational enterprises (MNEs).1 Entry modes may be different among MNEs. During the period from 1994 to 1999, on average about 93% of the total FDI inflows to OECD countries took the form of mergers and acquisitions, while direct entry has predominated over other types of FDI into China from the late 1980s.2 Bjorvatn (2001) claimed that the knowledge gaps between MNEs and the developing countries usually result in larger costs of technology transfer for mergers and acquisitions, which makes direct entry more preferable to MNEs. Obviously, the entry mode of MNEs affects the efficiency of technology transfer and becomes an important strategic decision for the foreign entrants (Mudambi, 1995; Culem, 1988; Devereux and Griffith, 1998; Kasuga, 2003; and Eicher and Kang, 2005). But then what factors determine MNEs’ optimal entry mode? As Culem, (1988), Davidson (1980), Devereux and Griffith (1998), and Mudambi (1995) claimed, one important decision to make for international diversification is to enter the foreign market through acquisition of a currently operating firm in the foreign market, or through the direct entry. Mudambi (2002) found that a strong relationship exists between the entry mode and diversification. On the other hand, Eicher and Kang (2005) showed that large countries are more likely to attract acquisitions, intermediate-sized countries may be served predominantly through trade, 1 During the period from 1994 to 2003, according to the International Financial Statistics Year Book (2004), the increase in FDI inflows are estimated at about 144%, 478%, and 122% in Germany, France and the U.K., respectively, which have an average 16.3%, 10.3%, and 13.98% GDP growth, respectively. In China, firms with FDI have contributed to over 40% of its total trade since the mid-1990s, according to Lv (2005). It has received about one third of FDI in all emerging markets and 60% of FDI in Asian emerging markets in the last decade (Prasad and Wei, 2005), and has become the largest overall recipient of FDI in the world in 2003. 2 See Lv (2005). Razin and Sadka (2003) showed that a host country can have the ex ante gains from opening up its economy to the flow of capital and intrinsic gains associated with the superior micro-management by FDI investors. 2 and small countries are most likely to experience either or no entry. When the capital market of local countries is inefficient, Kasuga (2003) found that acquisition mode becomes more difficult. When the costs of technology transfer are high (low), Mattoo et al (2004) showed that domestic welfare is generally higher under acquisition (direct entry), whereas the foreign firm prefers direct entry (acquisition) to acquisition (direct entry). Moreover, Muller (2007) showed that direct entry becomes optimal if the technology transfer cost is sufficiently high and the local market is with low competition. However, product differentiation of MNEs, which can produce a significant effect on their own profitability and hence their decision behaviors (including decisions on technology transfer and mode of entry), has not yet been studied in the literature. Porter (1990) claimed that product differentiation and lower costs are the two competitive advantages, which are the main reasons for the rise of Japan as a major exporter in the 1970s (Liu and Song, 1997). In the patent licensing contract, Mukherjee and Balasubramanian (2001) found that the best technology is transferred if products are sufficiently differentiated. As Lin (2004) observed in the Server and the PC industry, the entry modes of MNEs into a target market are generally different, because their different degrees of product differentiation matter. In order to analyze the effect of product differentiation to a foreign firm’s decision of entry mode and technology transfer, we employ a three-stage game model. The foreign firm chooses an entry mode (acquisition or direct entry) in the first stage, determines the level of technology transfer (which lowers its marginal production costs at the production stage) in the second stage, and finally produces heterogeneous products and Cournot-competes with the domestic firms in the host country. The existing literature relevant to our paper mainly focused on the decision of 3 entry mode, either licensing or direct entry. The MNEs are seeking optimal entry to prevent the dissipation of their technological advantages (e.g., Ethier and Markusen, 1996; Markusen, 2001; and Saggi, 1996 and 1999). On the other hand, Lee and Shy (1992) showed that the quality of technology transferred by the foreign firm may be lower if there are restrictions on foreign ownership. Roy et al (1999) identified market structure as a crucial determinant of optimal domestic policy by assuming costless technology transfer in a duopoly model. Note that our paper analyzes only the horizontal FDI (as in Mattoo et al, 2004) and the horizontal differentiated product markets, in order to handle the analysis of host welfare.3 There is substantial evidence that most FDI is horizontal, in which all firms (including the domestic and entrant firms) compete for sales of their final products in the host country (Markusen and Maskus, 1999). Instead, for vertical FDIs, the MNEs usually use the intermediate products that the domestic firms produce as the inputs of their final products, which are mostly exported to other countries (Busse and Hefeker, 2007).4 Furthermore, a large share of world trade happens as horizontal differentiated products, especially among the OECD countries (Greenaway and Torstensson, 2000). Storper, Chen, and De Paolis (2002) manifested that globalization brings into a given market many more versions of very similar products and benefits consumers’ variety preference, i.e., greater horizontal product differentiation, for EU and OECD countries. What is more, the horizontal differentiated products introduced to developing countries by MNEs have been increasing recently. MNEs, for lower labor cost in early days, introduced vertically differentiated products into the markets of China, who now instead welcomes MNEs to lead horizontal differentiated products 3 For vertical differentiation, the host welfare analysis will become more complicated and will remain until further study is done. 4 According to Aizenman and Marion (2004), the vertical FDI often arises when the multinationals fragment the production process internationally, locating each stage of production in the country where it can be done at the least cost. 4 into its markets for enhancing competition (Fang and Zhao, 2003).5 Brambilla (2006) empirically linked technological differences to product differentiation expansions of MNEs in China. 6 As commonly happens in OECD countries and recent Asian countries, our paper focuses on the horizontal FDI and horizontal differentiated products, and that helps keep the welfare analysis tractable. Our paper assumes that all domestic products are undifferentiated, but are differentiated from the entry products with a degree (denoted as ) to extend Mattoo et al (2004). The results then contain what they observed: the foreign firm is more likely to choose direct entry when the technology transfer cost is relatively high. Moreover, most of the results depart from their findings. We show that: (1) lower differentiation induces higher (lower) technology transfer given a sufficiently low (high) transfer cost; (2) given a sufficiently low transfer cost, acquisition induces less technology transfer than direct entry, and probability of that decreases in differentiation; (3) when transfer cost is sufficiently low, the foreign firm would prefer acquisition, and probability of that decreases in differentiation; (4) the equilibrium entry mode more likely results in less technology transfer (than the off-equilibrium mode), and probability for the equilibrium mode of acquisition to induce higher technology (than direct entry) decreases in differentiation; (5) when transfer cost is sufficiently low, the government would prefer acquisition, and probability of that decreases in differentiation; (6) only when transfer cost is within some certain intermediate levels, do both the government and the foreign firm prefer 5 Recently, Suntech Power, the top company of the solar energy industry in China, acquired MSK, a solar energy company in Japan, in order to smoothly enter the Japanese market. On the other hand, Sharp (from Japan), Siemens (from Germany), and Shell (from England) all set up their subsidiary to compete with Suntech Power in China (Lin, 2008). They provide horizontal differentiated products for consumers in China. 6 In the context of Brambilla (2006), product variety expansions (or new varieties) are not innovation but rather a horizontal expansion or renovation of the product portfolio of firms. That is, new varieties are those horizontal differentiated products of firms. 5 identical entry mode; (7) the foreign firm’s equilibrium entry mode more likely leads to smaller host welfare than the off-equilibrium mode. Under equilibrium mode of acquisition, the probability of the government preferring acquisition increases in but is always less than half.7 This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses the theoretical setup and describes the two entry modes (acquisition and direct entry) for the foreign firm to enter the host country. Section 3 provides a three-stage game model to analyze the extent of technology transfer and the optimal entry mode when a foreign firm decides to enter the market of the host country. Section 4 focuses on the impact of the foreign firm’s entry decision on the host country’s welfare. Section 5 offers our conclusions. 2. The Model Extending the basic model structure of Mattoo et al (2004), our model includes the product differentiation issue. There are n-1 domestic firms and one foreign firm. The domestic firms have identical marginal production costs and homogeneous products. The foreign firm enters the domestic market via acquisition or direct entry, introduces a differentiated product, and has lower marginal production cost through technology introduction. 8 To investigate the relation of product differentiation, technology transfer, and mode of entry, we employ a three-stage game. In the first stage of the model, the foreign firm has two options for entering the domestic market: acquiring a domestic firm or setting up a wholly owned subsidiary 7 Mattoo et al (2004) obtained similar results without taking into account the issue of product differentiation. They found that when increases, the foreign firm is more likely to choose direct entry, but under this circumstance the host country’s welfare is generally higher under acquisition relative to direct entry. 8 Without loss of generality, the assumption that all domestic firms produce homogeneous products can simplify our analysis. 6 that directly competes with domestic firms.9 If it chooses to acquire a domestic firm, it makes a take-it-or-leave-it offer, specifying a fixed transaction price (v), to the target firm. If the target firm accepts the offer, they form a new firm owned by the foreign firm. If the target firm refuses the offer, the foreign firm can enter the market by establishing its own subsidiary or by acquiring some other domestic firm. N denotes the total number of firms in the domestic market after the foreign firm enters. Thus, N = n-1 if the foreign firm chooses an acquisition mode, and N = n if it chooses the direct entry mode.10 After selecting the mode of entry, the foreign firm in the second stage chooses the amount of technology transfer (x) to its subsidiary, which costs the foreign firm C(x) with C(x) =x2/2. Assume that the technology transfer will lower the foreign firm’s marginal production cost at the third stage by x. Therefore, a higher parameter implies lower transfer efficiency and higher marginal transfer costs. In the last stage, firms compete in a Cournot-Nash fashion. Let a linear form of p(q) be the inverse demand function and notation qh, qi, and qf represent the total outputs of the N-1 domestic firms, the individual domestic firm, and the foreign firm, respectively.11 Therefore, the inverse market demand functions for each firm can be expressed as follows: N 1 pi a qh q f and p f a qh q f , where q h q i a > 0, and 0 1. (1) i 1 9 Mattoo et al (2004) shows that, in equilibrium, the foreign firm does not choose partial acquisition. Throughout the paper in order to proceed to a concise mathematical analysis, we consider only the case of full acquisition of the domestic firm. 10 Of course, there is a fixed cost of setting up plant for direct-entry MNEs. We do not contain the fixed cost in our model because it does not affect the decisions of optimal choice. 11 Hereafter, subscript h, i, and f denote the domestic firms, individual domestic firm, and the foreign firm, respectively. When the foreign chooses direct entry, the number of domestic firms N-1 = n-1; otherwise N-1 = n-2. 7 Parameter measures the degree of horizontal product differentiation. When = 1, the goods are perfect substitutes and the goods are unrelated when = 0. As increases, the products become more standardized (i.e., less differentiated). 3. Model analysis 3.1. Product market By backward induction, the analysis starts from the last stage (i.e., the product market), in which the domestic firms and the foreign firm simultaneously choose their output levels. The firms’ profit functions are given by: i (qi , q f ) (a q h q f c)qi . f (qi , q f ) (a qh q f c x)q f C ( x). (2) (3) Solving equation (2) and (3) for the optimal output levels under the Cournot competition is straightforward, which gives the first order conditions and then individual equilibrium output as follows: a Nqi q f c, for any firm i. a ( N 1) qi 2q f c x, for firm f. qi [ N ( N 1)]( a c) Nx (2 )( a c) x and q f . 2 2 N ( N 1) 2 N 2 ( N 1) To guarantee positive individual output, Assumption 1 is made: 8 (4) (5) (6) Assumption 1. x 2 (a c) x . The comparative statics of individual equilibrium output with respect to technology transfer, product differentiation, and the market competition are in Lemma 1: Lemma 1. The comparative statics are as follows: dq f dq dq h (1) i < 0; < 0; 0. dx dx dx dq f dq (2) i > (<) 0 if x < (>) x and < (>) 0 if x < (>) x, where x = [(4-)(N-1)-2N] d d (a-c)/ [2N+2(N-1)] and x = [2(N-1)+ 2(1-)N] (a-c)/2N. dq f dq dq h (3) i < 0; > 0; 0. dN dN dN d ( f / qi ) d 2q f d 2q f d 2 qi d 2 qi (4) 0; 0; 0; 0; 0; dxdN ddN dN dxdN ddN d ( f / qi ) d 2q f d 2 qi 0 if x >x; 0; 0. d dxd dxd Proof. See Appendix (A1) and (A2). Given a higher level of technology transfer, as shown in part (1), the foreign firm has a higher marginal production cost reduction, leading itself to a higher output and the domestic firms to a lower output under the Cournot competition. An increase in (i.e., less differentiated) increases market competition, decreases the foreign firm’s marginal revenue (as shown in (5)), and decreases qf if its cost reduction of technology transfer is not too high. It then causes qi to increase under Cournot competition and is stated in part (2). When the number of firms increases, each individual equilibrium output decreases, while the total domestic output increases due to higher competition, as part (3) claims. Moreover, higher competition due to the 9 increase of N (which lowers market price) increases the impact of x and to each individual’s output, as part (4) shows. According to part (4), the partial effect of x and to each individual output under the direct entry mode is higher than the acquisition mode because NE > NA.12 3.2. Technology transfer In the second stage, given an entry mode and expecting qi and qf in (6), the foreign firm maximizes its profit by choosing the level of technology transfer x, which reduces its marginal production cost by x and incurs transfer costs by x2/2. Taking derivative of equation (3) with respect to x, we obtain the first order conditions for technology transfer as follows, by the given (6) and the first order condition in (5): d f dx f dq f q f dx ( N 1) f dqi dC x dC ( x) f qf 0, where q f . (7) qi dx dx dx x The first term in RHS of the first equality equals zero due to the first-order condition of the foreign firm’s profit maximization. Following the terminologies used in Mattoo et al (2004), the second term is the strategic effect (SE) while the third term represents the scale effect (EE) of technology transfer. SE implies that an increase in technology transfer lowers the domestic firms’ output, thereby increasing the foreign firm’s profit. EE measures the direct effect of marginal production cost advantage due to technology transfer. SE plus EE represents the marginal revenue for technology transfer (hereafter, termed as MRTT), and the last term in (7) represents Throughout the paper, superscript A and E will be used to denote the “Acquisition mode” and the “Direct-entry mode”, respectively, when there is a need. 12 10 the marginal cost of technology transfer (termed as MCTT, hereafter). Therefore we obtain equation (8) by rewriting equation (7): MRTT SE EE {( N 1)[ q f ][ dC x ]} {q f } MCTT x. (8) 2 dx 2 N ( N 1) By Lemma 1, we can show that the SE is concave in N while the EE is decreasing in N. We then build Lemma 2: Lemma 2. The strategic effect of technology transfer is concave in the number of firms, while the scale effect always decreases in the number of firms. Proof. See Appendix (B1). Lemma 2 indicates that MRTT will decrease in N after some certain large number of firms (given and ). This implies that xE < xA, if it exists, will occur only when N is sufficiently large. Similarly, by taking derivative of SE and EE with respect to and applying Lemma 1, we obtain the impact of product differentiation to SE and EE in Lemma 3. Lemma 3. If x > x, then dEE/d > 0 and dSE/d > 0. If x < x, dEE/d < 0 but the sign of dSE/d is indeterminable. Proof. See Appendix (B1). 11 Therefore, MRTT is higher when product differentiation becomes smaller under a sufficiently large technology transfer. However, Even though MRTT decreases due to the N-impact in Lemma 2 and/or -impact in Lemma 3, the equilibrium technology transfer may still increase if MCTT is sufficiently low due to a sufficiently low . To see the equilibrium technology transfer, we solve (8) for x: x( N , , ) 2 N [ N ( N 1)]( a c) [2 N 2 ( N 1)]2 2 N 2 (9) It is obvious that 2n 2 [2n 2(n 1)] 2 is the lower bound of to guarantee a non-negative technology transfer. 13 Moreover, to guarantee both non-negative technology transfer and non-negative individual outputs, we need the following assumption for technology transfer costs:14 Assumption 2. 2n LL(n, ) . (2 )[ 2n 2 (n 1)] In Appendix (B2), we show that dx dN < 0 if > 1 and dx d < 0 if > 2, where 1 ( N , ) 2N 2 2N 2 , 2 ( N , ) , and T2N T [T 2 ( N N )] T [T 4 ( N N )] -2(N-1). Since LL < 1 < 2, we then build Proposition 1: Proposition 1. When > 2, the technology transfer is decreasing in both N and . For x 0, it requires 2N2/[2N-2(N-1)]2, which is increasing in N. Therefore, n (for the direct entry mode) instead of n-1 (for the acquisition mode) is used in the lower bound for x 0. 14 The necessary condition for non-negative x and individual outputs is 2N/{[(2-)(2N-2(N-1)], which is increasing in N. Similar to footnote 9, n instead of n-1 is used in the lower bound LL. 13 12 When < 1, the technology transfer is increasing in both N and . If it is intermediate such that 1 < < 2, then the technology transfer is decreasing in N but increasing in . Proof. See Appendix (B2). There are several implications in Proposition 1. First, when is sufficiently high, a market with more competing firms induces less technology transfer of the foreign firm if it enters. Therefore, under a discrete number of firms, x A x E if is sufficiently high so that TT (n, ) , where15 TT (n, ) 2n(n 1) . 4n(n 1)(1 ) (2n 2 4n 1) 4 (n 1)( n 2) 3 (10) Secondly, given a , 1 ( N , ) is satisfied only if N is sufficiently large. That is, when N is sufficiently large under a given , dx/dN < 0 and x A x E . The reason is associated to what Lemma 2 describes, owing to the concavity of MRTT with respect to N. Thirdly, given N, an increase in results in MRTT increase (when x > x according to Lemma 3) and a higher equilibrium x. However, the MRTT increase is dominated by the MCTT increase if 2 ( N , ) , leading to a decrease of equilibrium x. Fourthly, less differentiation (i.e., higher) leads to a higher substitution effect and market competition, which makes technology transfer more valuable for the 15 See Appendix (B3). 13 foreign firm. Therefore, the increase in leads to higher dx/dN.16 This implies that some result with x A x E given fixed and n under some lower level of may turn into “ x A x E ” when increases, which implies that TT(n,) becomes larger and shifts up as in Figure 1(a).17 Thus, we are ready for building Proposition 2: Proposition 2. If < TT, xA < xE; otherwise xA > xE. If is larger, then the possibility of xA < xE is greater. Proof. See Appendix (B3) and (B5) and simulations in Figure 1(a). In an economic sense, when the technology transfer becomes much more expensive (and therefore technology transfer decreases), the profit of the foreign firm becomes smaller when the market is with more competing firms. Therefore, it could be profitable for the foreign firm to adopt an acquisition mode to avoid fierce competition, in which the increase of technology transfer follows and results in xA > xE. On the contrary, the technology transfer becomes much cheaper when is sufficiently low. Therefore, facing more competing firms under the direct entry mode (which results in smaller profit), the foreign firm can largely increase technology transfer for taking advantage of the cheap cost-reduction and result in xE > xA. The threshold between these two cases is represented as a TT curve. [Figure 1 about here] 3.3. Optimal entry mode of the foreign firm 16 17 See Appendix (B4). Also see Appendix (B5) for the mathematic proof. 14 In the first stage, the foreign firm chooses the mode for entering the host country. Assume that the foreign firm has all the bargaining power under acquisition and it offers the take-it-or-leave-it price v = iA(xA) to buy out a domestic firm.18 The net profit (denoted as fA ) under the acquisition mode for the foreign firm is thus fA = fA ( x A ) v = fA ( x A ) - iA ( x A ). Plugging (6) and (9) into (2) and (3), we obtain the following reduced-form profits: (a c){( 2 )[ 2(n 1) 2 (n 2)] 2(n 1)} 2 ( x ) (q ) = { }. [2(n 1) 2 (n 2)] 2 2(n 1) 2 A i A A 2 i iE ( x E ) (q iE ) 2 = { (a c){( 2 )[ 2n 2 (n 1)] 2n} 2 }. [2n 2 (n 1)]2 2n2 fA fA ( x A ) v fA ( x A ) iA ( x A ) (q Af ) 2 (q iA ) 2 [( n 1) (n 2)][ 2(n 1) 2 (n 2)]( a c) 2 { } (q iA ) 2 . 2 2 2 [2(n 1) (n 2)] 2(n 1) [n (n 1)][ 2n 2 (n 1)]( a c) 2 } . [2n 2 (n 1)] 2 2n 2 Ef Ef ( x E ) (q Ef ) 2 { (11) (12) (13) (14) Let fA Ef and then solve for equation /( a c) 2 = 0, which gives equal profit contours. By way of simulations, we find two possible solutions defined as FF(n,) and FF1(n,), which give rise to fA Ef when FF(n,) > > FF1(,).19 Since the simulations in FF1(n,) are almost equal to or less than LL(n,), we use LL to substitute for FF1. Therefore, we conclude that fA Ef if FF(n,) > > LL(n,) 18 Assuming that the foreign firm has all the bargaining power simplifies our analysis, which is also used in Mattoo et al (2004). 19 Throughout the paper, all simulations are performed within the space of (0, 0, 2) (, , n) (3, 1, 200) with interval 0.015, 0.1, and 1, respectively. 15 and fA Ef if > FF(n,). FF curves are drawn in Figure 1(b), which shows up-shifting when product differentiation is lower (i.e., when is higher). Lower differentiation (i.e., higher ) results in a larger substitution effect and reduces more profit of each firm under direct entry than under acquisition (for the number of firms is greater under direct entry). Accordingly, a higher (therefore a higher buy-out fee) is required in order to achieve fA = Ef . Thus, the area below FF curve increases, which represents a probability of fA > Ef to increase. Proposition 3. If < FF, fA Ef ; otherwise fA Ef . If is larger, the probability of the acquisition entry being the equilibrium mode increases. Therefore, when the product introduced by the foreign firm is relatively highly differentiated from the domestic products, direct entry is more likely to become the equilibrium mode. While product differentiation is relatively low, acquisition entry is more likely to become the equilibrium mode. This finding accords with some practical facts. For example, in the Server industry, the products are highly differentiated because the server product line is highly technology-oriented. As we observe in the industry, the major players- Sun Microsystems and IBM - enter each target market mostly by adopting the direct entry strategy, which includes three steps: set up a branch, use the technology and engineers from headquarters to expand into this target market, and find a cooperative distributor to perform such a support role.20 In contrast, in the PC industry, the products become 20 See National Applied Research Laboratories in Taiwan (2004). 16 one kind of commodity and more homogenous. For the purpose of expanding the market, firms in this industry mostly adopt the acquisition strategy. For example, Lenovo, the number one PC market share leader in China, made an acquisition of IBM’s PC division in 2004 to enter the US and European markets. Acer, one of the top three PC makers in the world, made an acquisition of Gateway in 2007 to enter the US market. In the telecommunications industry, mobile phones are also becoming more homogeneous. In order to quickly expand its mobile phone market, BenQ merged with the Siemens mobile phone division in 2006. Combining the FF and the TT curves, there are four separated regions, which are shown in Figure 2 and summarized in Table 1. Notations in Figure 2 and Table 1 are defined as:21 R12 R1 + R2 = {LL < (n,) < min{TT, FF}} R36 R3 + R6 = {FF < (n,) < TT} R4 {TT < (n,) < FF} R5 {(n,) > max{TT, FF}} Rp R124 {LL < (n,) < FF}={fA > fE} Table 1. Classification of profits and technology transfer fA > fE fA < fE xA>xE R4 R5 xA<xE R12 R36 The reason for these results is as follows. When is sufficiently small: (1) xA < xE according to Proposition 1 because the foreign firm can largely increase the cheaper technology transfer to take advantage of production cost reduction; (2) The buy-out fee of acquisition entry is driven substantially down; (3) the x-increase Throughout the paper, whenever the notation “Rabc” is used, it means Ra + Rb +Rc, where a, b, c represent any numbering. 21 17 brings about higher qf increase for direct entry mode because N increases, according to Part (1) and (4) in Lemma 1. When is sufficiently small, the benefit of (2) may dominate the benefit of (3), making the foreign firm more likely to adopt acquisition entry. This is represented in Figure 2 as the region R1 plus R2 (i.e., R12), indicating fA Ef but xA < xE. 22 Nonetheless, if n is very small, the buy-out fee of acquisition entry becomes very much higher and may outweigh the benefit of (3), resulting in fA Ef with xA < xE, which is indicated as R3 plus R6 (i.e., R36) in Figure 2. Results turn out to be different when is sufficiently high: (1) According to Proposition 2, under a sufficiently highly expensive cost of technology transfer, xA > xE; (2) the buy-out price of acquisition entry is higher; (3) the x-decrease brings about lower qf decrease for direct entry mode because N increases, according to Part (1) and (4) in Lemma 1. For a sufficiently high , the costs of (2) may outweigh the costs of (3), making direct entry more likely to become the equilibrium entry. It is represented in Figure 2 as the region R5, indicating fA Ef but xA > xE.23 If is intermediately high, then xA > xE still holds but the costs of (2) may not outweigh the costs of (3), resulting in an equilibrium mode of acquisition. This is represented in Figure 2 as the region R4 for fA Ef and xA > xE. We then build the following corollary. Corollary 1. When < FF, acquisition becomes the equilibrium entry mode, where xA > xE if TT < < FF and xA < xE if < TT. When > FF, direct entry becomes the 22 Eicher and Kang (2005) found similar results that larger markets are covered by acquisition because the foreign firm can use FDI as threats to reduce purchasing price when the cost of technology transfer is small. 23 The result is consistent with Salant et al (1983) and Kamien and Zang (1990), which stated that higher technology transfer costs are more likely to induce direct entry because the profit (and hence the buy-off fee of acquisition) of each domestic firm increases. 18 equilibrium mode and xA > xE. [Figure 2 about here] The size of each region can be a good measure of possibility for its occurrence. In region R4 (in which acquisition is the equilibrium mode) and region R36 (in which direct entry is the equilibrium mode), more technology transfer of the foreign firm is induced (than under the off-equilibrium mode). However, simulations show that the area ratio R4/Rp (i.e., R4/R124) and the area ratio R36/R356 are relatively small. Figure 3(a) shows that R4/Rp is increasing in and always less than 0.5, while Figure 3(b) shows that R36/R356 is always less than 0.07 but exhibits no regular relation with . That implies that the equilibrium entry mode of the foreign firm more likely results in less technology transfer than the off-equilibrium mode; and probability of “xA > xE” under equilibrium mode of acquisition decreases in differentiation. However, even when products are undifferentiated, probability of “A > B and xA > xE” is less than probability of “A > B and xA < xE”. Proposition 4. The equilibrium entry mode more likely results in less technology transfer (than the off-equilibrium mode). The probability for the equilibrium mode of acquisition to induce higher technology (than direct entry) decreases in differentiation. [Figure 3 about here] 4. Host country welfare 19 To analyze the change of host welfare, we first investigate consumers’ surplus (CS) and firms’ profits.24 The consumer surplus can be expressed as: 1 1 1 1 (a pi )q h (a p f )q f (q h q f )q h (q h q f )q f 2 2 2 2 1 1 [( q h ) 2 (q f ) 2 2q h q f ] [Q 2 2(1 )q h q f ], where Q q h q f . 2 2 CS (15) Therefore, the host welfare can be approximately expressed as the consumer surplus plus the domestic profits (denoted as D): W CS D , (16) where D i 1 i for direct entry and D v i 1 i for acquisition, in which n 1 n2 the buy-out price v i and i (qi ) 2 . We then derive the host welfare under the acquisition mode and the direct entry mode as follows, respectively: 1 W A [(qhA ) 2 (q Af ) 2 2qhA q Af ] (n 2)( qiA ) 2 v 2 1 [(n 2 2n 2)( qiA ) 2 (q Af ) 2 2 (n 2)qiA q Af ]. 2 (17) 1 W E [( qhE ) 2 (q Ef ) 2 2qhE q Ef ] (n 1)( qiE ) 2 2 1 [( n 2 1)( qiE ) 2 (q Ef ) 2 2 (n 1)qiE q Ef ]. 2 (18) The consumer surplus, as in equation (15), decreases in when the cost of 24 Our paper starts with a given demand function, rather than the consumers’ utility function. Therefore, we approximate welfare by summing consumers’ surplus and firms’ profits, as in Shy (1995), p.68. 20 technology transfer is sufficiently high, as shown in Appendix (C1). Lower product differentiation (i.e., higher ) reduces each domestic firm’s marginal revenue, inducing a decrease of output and profit. A lower cost of technology transfer gives the foreign firm lower production costs, driving down the domestic market price. Therefore, when is sufficiently high, a higher product differentiation can induce higher consumer surplus and higher domestic firms’ profits, which is consistent with the findings of Symeonidis (2003) that quality heterogeneity is beneficial for both consumers and firms. Lemma 4. When the cost of technology transfer is sufficiently high, larger heterogeneity is beneficial for both consumers and firms, and therefore increases the host welfare. Proof. See Appendix (C1). Proceeding with welfare comparison between different entry modes, we solve for (WA-WE)/(a-c)2 = 0, with the solution defined as WW(n,). By equation (17) and (18) and through simulations, we find that WA < WE if < WW(n,); otherwise, WA > WE. When increases, the profit of an individual firm decreases, resulting in a lower buy-out fee for acquisition. Accordingly, the welfare difference WE-WA increases, which then requires a relatively higher to increase the buy-out fee (and therefore increase WA) for achieving WE = WA. This shifts the WW curve up and enlarges the area below WW when increases, indicating that the probability of WA < WE increases for lower product differentiation. Figure 1(c) shows the result, in which the WW curve shifts up when increases. 21 Proposition 5. If < WW, then WA < WE; otherwise WA > WE. If becomes larger, the probability of WA < WE increases. Combining together the curves of FF, TT, and WW, there are six separate regions as depicted in Figure 2 and summarized in Table 2. Notations are defined as: Rw R1 + R6 {LL < (n,) < WW} R1 {LL < (n,) < min{WW, FF}} R2 {WW < (n,) < min{FF, TT}} R3 {max{WW, FF} < (n,) < TT} R6 {FF < (n,) < WW}. Table 2. Classification of welfare, profits, and technology transfer WA < WE WA > WE xA > xE xA < xE xA > xE xA < xE A > E -- R1 R4 R2 A < E -- R6 R5 R3 The reasons which result in the classification in Table 2 are as follows. When > LL, the increase of one more firm in the market increases CS but decreases the domestic firms’ profits. 25 Therefore, consumers always prefer direct entry mode while the domestic firms always prefer acquisition mode. For the acquisition mode to create higher welfare, the buy-out fee paid to some domestic firm has to outweigh the CS increase of direct entry mode, which requires a sufficiently high . Accordingly, we observe in Figure 2 that WA > WE only when is sufficiently high so that > WW, which contains regions R2, R3, R4, and R5. In contrast, when is too small, the 25 See Appendix (C2). 22 buy-out fee paid to some certain domestic firm is too small to outweigh the CS increase of direct entry mode, resulting in WA < WE, shown as the region below WW (denoted as Rw). The key factor to make WA < WE is that the technology transfer under acquisition is relatively smaller than under direct entry (i.e., xA < xE). When WW < < FF (i.e., in R2 and R4), both the government and the foreign firm prefer the acquisition mode in which a sufficiently high induces higher technology transfer than under the direct entry mode. When FF < < WW (i.e., in R6), they both prefer direct entry, which induces higher technology transfer than acquisition. When > max(WW, FF) (i.e., in R3 and R5), the government prefers acquisition but the foreign firm prefers direct entry, in which xA is most likely to be greater than xE. Lastly, when < min(WW, FF) (i.e., in R1), the government prefers direct entry but the foreign firm prefers acquisition, in which xA < xE. Corollary 2. When > max(WW, FF) (i.e., in R3 and R5), the government prefers the acquisition but the foreign firm prefers direct entry. When < min(WW, FF) (i.e., in R1), the government prefers the direct entry but the foreign firm prefers acquisition. When is an intermediate value, both the government and the foreign firm prefer acquisition if WW < < FF (i.e, in R2 and R4) but both prefer direct entry if FF < < WW (i.,e in R6). Proof. See simulations in Figure 2. We use area size of each region as a measure of probability for its occurrence. When the foreign firm chooses acquisition entry, the probability of WA > WE is measured by the ratio of area R24 to area R124, which is increasing in but never 23 goes beyond 0.5, as shown in Figure 4(a). Contrarily, when the foreign firm chooses direct entry, the probability of WA < WE is measured by the ratio of area R6 to area R536, which is less than 0.0075 and exhibits no regular relation with , as shown in Figure 4(c). In sum, the foreign firm’s equilibrium entry mode more likely leads to smaller host welfare than the off-equilibrium mode. That is, the possibility for both the foreign firm and the government to prefer an identical entry mode is shown to be relatively small. Moreover, the probability of “WA > WE and xA > xE” under equilibrium mode of acquisition, which is measured by R4/R124, is also increasing in and is less than 0.5, as shown in Figure 4(b). Contrarily, the probability of “WA < WE and xA < xE” under equilibrium mode of direct entry, which is measured by R6/R536, is less than 0.0075 as in Figure 4(c). Therefore, there is relatively small possibility that the equilibrium entry mode leads to higher host welfare as well as higher technology transfer (than the off-equilibrium mode). Interestingly in Table 2, as long as host welfare under direct entry is larger than under acquisition entry (i.e., WA < WE), the foreign firm’s technology transfer will always be xA < xE (i.e., R1 and R6), indicating that technology transfer to reduce market price is a main source for welfare increase. [Figure 4 about here] Proposition 6. The foreign firm’s equilibrium entry mode more likely leads to smaller host welfare than the off-equilibrium mode. Under equilibrium mode of acquisition, the probability of the government preferring acquisition increases in but is always less than half. 24 5. Conclusions Multinational enterprises and their products have been and will continue to be an important source for improving competitiveness of domestic firms in developing countries. Accordingly, multinationals’ entry mode, technology transfer, and product differentiation will have distinct impact on the host countries’ welfare. This paper shows that an entrant’s product differentiation does affect the choice of technology transfer and entry mode and the host country’s welfare. Our analysis shows that lower differentiation induces higher (lower) technology transfer given a sufficiently low (high) transfer cost. Given sufficiently low transfer costs, acquisition results in lower technology transfer but higher foreign firm’s profit, which occurs with a decreasing probability in differentiation. In other words, when transfer cost is sufficiently low, acquisition more likely becomes the equilibrium entry mode if the foreign firm introduces less differentiated products. This finding is supported by stylized facts. For example, firms in the PC industry (in which products are commonly acknowledged as being highly undifferentiated) mostly adopt the acquisition strategy to expand the market. Lenovo acquiring IBM’s PC division in China in 2004 and Acer acquiring Gateway for entering the US market in 2007 are the recent events. However, acquisition as the equilibrium entry mode more likely results in less technology transfer and lower host welfare (than direct entry). Probability of its occurrence decreases in differentiation. We further find that either entry mode as an equilibrium will most likely induce less technology transfer and less host welfare (than the off-equilibrium entry mode) regardless of product differentiation level. In fact, the foreign firm and the host government generally prefer different entry 25 modes. When the cost of technology transfer is very high, it is most likely that the foreign firm chooses direct entry, while it most likely chooses acquisition entry under a sufficiently low cost of technology transfer. Both of them result in smaller host welfare (than the other entry mode). Only when transfer cost is within some certain intermediate levels, do the government and the foreign firm prefer identical entry mode. But probability of that is always less than half, which decreases in differentiation. Lastly, the extension issues of these lines can include the spillover effect of technology transfer, the joint ventures as another entry mode, and the vertical FDI. Appendix Appendix A. Calculations for Section 3.1 (A1) dqi 2 2 dqh dq ( N 1) i 0 . 0. 2 2 2 dx dx dx 2 N ( N 1) N (2 ) dq f N = > 0. dx 2 N 2 ( N 1) dqi [( 2 N (4 )( N 1)]( a c) [ 2 ( N 1) 2 N ]x > 0 if x < x [2 N 2 ( N 1)] 2 d [(4-)(N-1)-2N] (a-c)/[2N+2(N-1)]. dq f ( N 1) 2Nx [ 2 ( N 1) 2(1 ) N ]( a c) = < 0 if x < x [2(N-1) + 2 2 d [2 N ( N 1)] 2(1-)N] (a-c)/2N. Comparing with x in Assumption 1, we get x < x < x . dq f [( 2 )( a c) x] dqi (2 2 )[( 2 )( a c) x] 0. = < 0. dN dN [2 N 2 ( N 1)] 2 [2 N 2 ( N 1)] 2 dqh dq 2[( 2 )( a c) x] qi ( N 1) i 0. dN dN [2 N 2 ( N 1)]2 (A2) 26 d (dqi dx) 2 (2 2 ) d (dq f dx) 2 0 . 0. dN dN [2 N 2 ( N 1)]2 [2 N 2 ( N 1)] 2 d (dqi d ) [ N (4 4 ) 2 (6 2 )]( a c x) (a c)[2 N (4 2 2 ) 4(4 2 )] 0. dN [2 N 2 ( N 1)]3 d (dq f d ) 4 N[(2 2 2 ) N 2 ](a c) 2 [(2 2 ) N 2 ]x 0. dN [2 N 2 ( N 1)]3 q d ( f qi ) q f d ( dqi dx) 4N d ( f qi ) q f f . 0. 0. d d [2 N 2 ( N 1)]2 dN N d (dq f dx) 2N ( N 1) 0. d [2 N 2 ( N 1)] 2 Appendix B. Calculations for Section 3.2 (B1) ( f qi ) dqi f (dqi dx) dSE f dqi 2 ( N 1)[ ] = 2 dN qi dx N dx qi N [2 N ( N 1)]3 (-) (-) () (-) (-) () N[(2 4 2 )(a c) (2 2 ) x] [( 4 )(a c) x] < 0 if N is sufficiently [( 4 )( a c) x] dEE dq f large so that N . 0. [( 4 2 2)( a c) (2 2 ]) x dN dN d 2 SE 2 2 {[ 4 (3 ) 3 ( N 1)( 4 ) 4 N (1 2 )]( a c) 2 2 4 dN [2 N ( N 1)] [(4 2 )( N 2 ) 2 N (1 2 )]x} 0. ( f qi ) dqi f ( dqi dx) dSE K ( N 1)[ ] and dEE dq f , where d dx qi d d (-) (-) (-) q f and dq f d . According to (A1), if x > x, then dq f d ( d f dqi ) >0, which results in = dEE >0 d dSE > 0. d (B2) dx 2 (a c) 2 {T [2 N (1 ) 2 ( N 1)] 2 N 2 } 0, if 1 ( N , ) , where 2 2 dN [T 2 N ] 1 ( N , ) = 2N 2 and T = 2N - 2(N-1). T [T 2 ( N N )] dx [2 N ( N 1)( a c)]{[ 3 2 ( N 1) 2 N (1 2 )]T 2 N 2 } < 0 if > 2 ( N , ) , d [T 2 2 N 2 ]2 27 where 2 ( N , ) 2N 2 and T = 2N - 2(N-1). T [T 4 ( N N )] dx [ N ( N 1)][ 2 N 2 ( N 1)] 4 N (a c) 0. d {[ 2 N 2 ( N 1)] 2 2 N 2 }2 (B3) 2(a c) {( n 1)[( n 1) (n 2)][( 2n 2 (n 1)) 2 2n 2 ] RS n[n (n 1)][( 2(n 1) 2 (n 2)) 2 2(n 1) 2 ]} x x A x E 2(a c) {[ 4n(n 1)(1 ) 3 (2n 2 4n 1) 4 (n 1)( n 2)] 2n(n 1)}, RS where R [2(n 1) 2 (n 2)] 2 2(n 1) 2 and S [2n 2 (n 1)] 2 2n 2 . We then obtain that x 0 (i.e., xA > xE) if TT (n, ) , where TT ( n, ) = 2n(n 1) . 4n(n 1)(1 ) (2n 2 4n 1) 4 (n 1)( n 2) 3 (B4) d (dx ) dN 2(a c) {T 2 [4 N 2 16N ( N 1) 22 2 N ( N 1) 4 3 ( N 1) 2 ] d [T 2 2 N 2 ]3 2 2 2 N [4 N 2 N ( N 1)(8 3 ) 12 3 ( N 1) 2 ]}, which is always positive, proven by way of simulations. (B5) dTT (n, ) 2 3 [2n 2 (2 )n (1 )] 0. dn [4n(n 1)(1 ) 3 (2n 2 4n 1) 4 (n 1)( n 2)] 2 d 2TT (n, ) 2 3 dn 2 [4n(n 1)(1 ) 3 (2n 2 4n 1) 4 (n 1)( n 2)] 3 {4n 3 [4(1 ) 3 (2 )] 3n 2 [8 4 (1 ) 3 (4 2 )] n[24 4 (1 5 ) 2 3 (6 5 ) 7 5 ] [8 2 2 (4 3 ) 4 (5 4 )]} 0. dTT (n, ) 2n(n 1)[ 4n(n 1) 3 2 (2n 2 4n 1) 4 3 (n 1)( n 2)] 0. d [4n(n 1)(1 ) 3 (2n 2 4n 1) 4 (n 1)( n 2)] 2 Appendix C. Calculations for Section 4 (C1) With the equilibrium x in equation (9), we derive the equilibrium outputs in second period: qh ( N 1)qi ( N 1)(a c){( 2 )[ 2 N 2 ( N 1)] 2 N} , and [2 N 2 ( N 1)]2 2 N 2 28 qf (a c)[ N ( N 1)][ 2 N 2 ( N 1)] . By simulations under Assumption 2 [2 N 2 ( N 1)]2 2 N 2 (i.e., > LL), we obtain that: dq h ( N 1)( a c) {[ 2 N 2 ( N 1)] 2 [( 2 4 2 ) N 2 2 2 2 d {[ 2 N ( N 1)] 2 N } (4 )] 2 N [( 2 4 3 2 4 3 ) N 2 N (4 3 8 2 ) 4 3 ]} 0; ( N 1)( a c) {[ 2 N 2 ( N 1)][( 4 4 2 3 ) N 2 2 2 2 2 d {[ 2 N ( N 1)] 2 N } 2 2 N (1 2 ) 4 ] 2 N 2 [( 2 2 3 2 ) N 3 2 ]} 0; and dq f dq dCS dq (qh q f ) h + (q f qh ) f qh q f < 0 when is sufficiently large. d d d d dW dCS d i d (qi ) 2 dq Since = + ( N 1) i < 0 2qi i 0 according to (A1), d d d d d d only when is sufficiently large. (C2) With the second-period equilibrium x in (9) and qh and qf in (C1), simulations show dq f dq h (a c) that > 0 holds under Assumption 2. We also derive that = 2 dN [T 2 N 2 ] 2 dN {( 2 )T 2 2 N[ N (2 2 ) 2 2 ]} 0 if > 2 N (2 N 2 ( N 2) N ) . It (2 )[ 2 N 2( N 1)] 2 dQ dqh dq f > 0 under dN dN dN dq f dq h Assumption 2 (i.e., > LL), indicating that dominates . 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Contours = 0.2 = 0.4 (a) TT : x E =x = 0.6 = 0.8 = 0.9 (b) FF : = A E = 1.0 A E (c) WW : W = W 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.25 2.25 2.25 2 2 2 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.25 1.25 1.25 1 1 1 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.5 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 n 0.5 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 32 n 0.5 A n 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 Figure 2 Technology Transfer, profit, and welfare Simulations are performed within the space of (0, 0, 2) (, , n) (3, 1, 200). Rx {LL < (n,) < TT}, Rp {LL < (n,) <FF}, and Rw {LL < (n,) < WW}, R1 {LL < (n,) < min{WW, FF}}, R2 {WW < (n,) < min{FF,TT}}, R3 {max{WW, FF} < (n,) < TT}, R4 {TT < (n,) < FF}, R5 {(n,) > max{TT, FF}}, R6 {FF < (n,) < WW}. LL TT FF WW 0.65 = 0.2 = 0.4 0.85 R5 R5 R3 R3 R2 R6 = 0.6 1.15 R5 R2 1.05 R6 R4 R3 R2 R1 0.75 R1 1.25 R1 0.95 0.85 n 0.55 3 6 9 12 15 18 3 = 0.8 1.75 n 0.65 21 1.2 1.95 6 9 R5 R3 1.85 1.1 1.65 R5 1.55 R3 TT A E R1 I : x x 0.8 1.45 n 1.15 3 6 9 12 15 nn 0.7 1.35 23 7 6 12 3 9 17 2.55 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.45 2.6 2.5 2.35 2.4 R2 2.3 2.25 2.2 2.1 2.15 2 1.9 2.05 1.8 1.7 1.95 1.6 1.5 1.85 1.4 1.3 1.75 23 2212 Figure 3. Area ratio for foreign firm’s profit = 0.2 = 0.4 = 0.6 = 0.8 (a) R4/Rp = 0.9 = 1.0 (b) R36/R536 0.07 0.5 0.06 0.4 0.05 0.3 0.04 0.03 0.2 0.02 0.1 0.01 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 n 21 n 0 3 6 33 6 9 R1 1.25 n 0.75 21 R2 0.9 1.55 1.35 18 0.9 ==0.6 II : x A x E 1.65 R2 15 R4 1.75 1 R4 1.45 12 12 15 18 21 == 1.0 1.0 R5 II : x x E A R4 I: x x A TT E R1 nn 7 126 17 229 Figure 4. Area ratio for welfare = 0.2 = 0.4 = 0.6 = 0.8 (a) R24/R124 = 0.9 = 1.0 (b) R4/R124 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 (c) R6/R536 0.0075 0.005 0.0025 0.1 0.1 n 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 n 0 3 6 9 12 34 15 18 21 n 0 3 6
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