OPTIMIZATION OF CHOICE
MODELLING IN COMPLEX
URBAN CONTEXTS
Applications in planning for
sustainable development
Borri D., Circella G., Ottomanelli M., Sassanelli D.
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
1/27
OPTIMIZATION OF CHOICE MODELLING IN COMPLEX
URBAN CONTEXTS - Applications in planning for
sustainable development
1.
INTRODUCTION
2.
UNDERSTANDING TRAVELLERS’ CHOICE BEHAVIOUR
3.
PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
4.
PARTICIPATED MODELLING FOR TRANSPORT
PLANNING
5.
PLANNING FOR “SOFT” TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS
6.
STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR “HARD” INTERVENTIONS
7.
CONCLUSIONS
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
2/27
1.
What is an optimal choice in planning?

It is not easy to define if an optimal choice in transport planning processes
can be found.

Contemporary urban areas are day-by-day becoming more complex.

New activities are being established and are replacing traditional ones. The
widespread of technological solutions is gradually changing work and
transport organization.

In such areas, modifications of the transport systems are required, evolving
their features and organization.

Planners are called to a ambitious challenge, in order to assist these
changes, providing the most adequate measures for transport solutions.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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1.
Transport intervention selection

Several methods were developed for the evaluation and selection of
the possible actions to undertake.

Evaluation methodologies can be useful in the selection of the
actions and policies to pursue.

Several methodologies are nowadays available. Some of them
admit the use of fuzzy measures for the evaluation of the
alternatives while some others do not do it (Munda, 1995)

Such methods do not define the “optimum” for a specific problem of
planning. They generate an order of preferences, with the related
argumentation to support it, for the selection of actions, policies and
interventions to adopt.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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1.
Transport intervention selection (2)

The selection between different alternatives in planning is
carried out with Mathematical Programming Models, too.

Multi-Attitude Decision Making, Multi-Attribute Utility Theory
can be usefully applied in decision making for the evaluation
of different projects, considering multiple objectives.

In the selection of the transport solutions to adopt, a robust
and accurate modelling of the transport system is required, in
order to define the transport solutions which are best suited
on the local context.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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1.
Planning for sustainable development

This paper deals with the optimization of transport modelling techniques, in
order to assist the definition of transport solutions for complex urban areas.

The objective of sustainability is pursued with reference to the definition of
transport solutions which face at the same time transport system users’
needs and environmental concerns in metropolitan and urban areas.

The presented methodology is intended to solve the limitations of traditional
transport modelling, when defining acceptable transport solutions for
sustainable transport.

The methodology will be tested in the selection of the transport interventions
into the definition of the strategic plan of the city of Bari, Italy.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
6/27
OPTIMIZATION OF CHOICE MODELLING IN COMPLEX
URBAN CONTEXTS - Applications in planning for
sustainable development
1.
INTRODUCTION
2.
UNDERSTANDING TRAVELLERS’ CHOICE BEHAVIOUR
3.
PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
4.
PARTICIPATED MODELLING FOR TRANSPORT
PLANNING
5.
PLANNING FOR “SOFT” TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS
6.
STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR “HARD” INTERVENTIONS
7.
CONCLUSIONS
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
7/27
Travellers’ Behaviour Prediction

Forecasting travelers’ behaviour is an important topic in the
determination of transport demand and in estimating
travellers’ response to the planned interventions.

Several processes of planning fail in the definition of transport
solutions and interventions which do not get the foreseen
response among transport system users.

Several different approaches have been developed to predict
travelers’ choice behaviour. They are mainly based on the
hypothesis of rational behaviour of travellers, who try to
maximize their personal utility.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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EUT - Expected Utility Theory

In the EUT approach, an expected utility value is associated
to each alternative depending on all possible values
assumed by the alternative attributes:
EU j  i PiU ij
where Pi is the probability value associated to the result i of
the alternative j.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
9/27
RUT - Random Utility Theory

The utility of an alternative is expressed by the random
variable
i
Uj

 V ji + ε ij
The random residual is introduced to represent the different
sources of randomness involved in the choice
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
10/27
The Implementation of Behavioral Models
The implementation of choice models nowadays represents an important
topic in research activities on transport planning.
In many transportation choice contexts, RUT models are not able to
capture the effects of the uncertainty or variability associated to the
attributes on travelers’ choices.
The hypothesis of travellers’ perfect knowledge on the real attributes of
the alternatives is often not satisfied.
Moreover, travellers sometimes have only a limited knowledge of the
alternatives belonging to the choice set.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
11/27
OPTIMIZATION OF CHOICE MODELLING IN COMPLEX
URBAN CONTEXTS - Applications in planning for
sustainable development
1.
INTRODUCTION
2.
UNDERSTANDING TRAVELLERS’ CHOICE BEHAVIOUR
3.
PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
4.
PARTICIPATED MODELLING FOR TRANSPORT
PLANNING
5.
PLANNING FOR “SOFT” TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS
6.
STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR “HARD” INTERVENTIONS
7.
CONCLUSIONS
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
12/27
3.
PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
Many failures of transport planning processes, which get results below
expectations, are due to an incorrect estimation of the effects of the
planned solutions.
The aim of the paper is to implement a methodology for enhancing the
sustainability of transport solutions, moving from the concerns related to the
definition and modelling of transport interventions and policies in urban
areas.
The use of participation (both from experts and from the users) is seen as a
tool to reveal the correct perception of the alternative features among the
users. At the same time it gives contribution to the definition of measures
and interventions, in the construction of future sustainable scenarios for
transport systems.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
13/27
3.
PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
Transport Systems in Modern Society
All over the world, urban systems are day-by-day growing in their size
and complexity.
At the same time we are witnessing the growth of complex nets of
cities, which involve new material and nonmaterial transport flows.
Assessing the rules of such growth, defining acceptable measures for
the evolution of these complex systems, is universally understood as a
very high-responsibility challenge (Monzon et al., 2005)
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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3.
PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
Innovations and Complexity in Modern Society
The evolution of contemporary society is deeply influenced by the
widespread of technological innovations.
In most developed countries, new forms of work organization, as the ecommerce and telecommuting, lead the evolution of communication
systems and generate relevant flows of data.
As evident, the effects of the widespread of ICT are able to modify
people mobility needs and choice behaviour (Choo et al., 2005).
The arising of such new forms of “unexpected” mobility needs is not
easy to be predicted in traditional modelling.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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3.
PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
Objectives of Sustainable Development:
SOCIAL
JUSTICE
SUSTAINABLE
ECONOMIES
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
The attention is here focused on the development of transport solutions that are
able to meet the mobility needs of local population as a way to meet the
objective of environmental sustainability of transport systems.
However, the three previously stated issues are strongly interrelated, and
undoubtedly the same measures defined with the perspective of environmental
sustainability produce effects referring to the remaining two objectives.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
16/27
OPTIMIZATION OF CHOICE MODELLING IN COMPLEX
URBAN CONTEXTS - Applications in planning for
sustainable development
1.
INTRODUCTION
2.
UNDERSTANDING TRAVELLERS’ CHOICE BEHAVIOUR
3.
PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
4.
PARTICIPATED MODELLING FOR TRANSPORT
PLANNING
5.
PLANNING FOR “SOFT” TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS
6.
STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR “HARD” INTERVENTIONS
7.
CONCLUSIONS
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
17/27
4.
PARTICIPATED MODELLING FOR
TRANSPORT PLANNING
In this work, an integrated approach to transport planning is proposed.
In the proposed approach, modelling techniques are integrated with the
use of participation for a dual goal:
Investigating
the
real
perception of the transport
system features
Interventions to enhance the
information and knowledge of
the system
“SOFT INTERVENTIONS”
Part of the process of
scenario building for transport
in complex urban contexts
Definition of future transport
alternatives and solutions
“HARD INTERVENTIONS”
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
18/27
4.
THE PROPOSED METHODOLOGY
PARTICIPATION
&
COMPLEXITY
DISCOVERY
EXPERT
KNOWLEDGE
USER
KNOWLEDGE
POSSIBLE LAND
DEVELOPMENT
ACTIONS
TRANSPORT
SYSTEM
INFORMATION
LEVEL
TRANSPORT
SYSTEM ROLE
IMPACTS ON
LAND-USE
LATENT CLASS
OF USERS AND
NEW NEEDS
LATENT
TRANSPORT
ALTERNATIVES
POSSIBLE SET
OF PROJECTS
G. Circella
ACTUAL
PERCEIVED
CHOICE SETS
ACTUAL
PERCEPTION OF
SINGLE
ALTERNATIVE
The
methodology
aims
at
investigating the users’ knowledge
of the transport system, as well as
at involving stakeholders in the
construction of sustainable future
scenarios for transport planning in
urban areas.
Groups of stakeholders are
involved in the whole process of
planning.
Diffused knowledge (provided by
local population and by “experts”),
aids
planners
in
detecting
weaknesses and lack of efficiency
in the actual transport system and
in
proposing
solutions
for
sustainable transports.
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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4.
THE PROPOSED METHODOLOGY
PARTICIPATION
&
COMPLEXITY
DISCOVERY
EXPERT
KNOWLEDGE
USER
KNOWLEDGE
POSSIBLE LAND
DEVELOPMENT
ACTIONS
TRANSPORT
SYSTEM
INFORMATION
LEVEL
TRANSPORT
SYSTEM ROLE
IMPACTS ON
LAND-USE
LATENT CLASS
OF USERS AND
NEW NEEDS
LATENT
TRANSPORT
ALTERNATIVES
POSSIBLE SET
OF PROJECTS
G. Circella
ACTUAL
PERCEIVED
CHOICE SETS
ACTUAL
PERCEPTION OF
SINGLE
ALTERNATIVE
The methodology allows capturing
latent classes of users, whose
behaviour is not consistent with
prediction of choice models.
New mobility needs arising from
social
changes
and
the
widespread
of
technological
innovations can be included into
the process, with the aim of
defining solutions for modern
economic areas.
The participatory methodology
allows investigating the real
perception of the alternatives
belonging to the choice set and of
the alternative attributes among
transport system users and local
population.
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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4.
Experts and Users’ knowledge in
Transport Planning
“Experts”
= categories that hold a specialized knowledge about the local
territorial system: transport “specialists” (professionals and
researchers), planners, local economists, entrepreneurs and
contractors, public officials and executives, etc.
They are involved in focused group meetings, in order to identify the
current conditions of the system, including its weaknesses (blind spots),
and to define possible actions and interventions.
Users’ knowledge is required in the process as well as experts’ knowledge.
Local people and transport system users are involved in verifying the
perception of the system features (leading to the definition of soft
interventions) and directly play a role in the decision-making process
(planning of hard interventions).
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
21/27
5.
Participatory processes to enhance the
efficiency of the system
TRANSPORT USERS’
PARTICIPATION
EXPERT
KNOWLEDGE
ACTUAL
SYSTEM
DESCRIPTION
CHECK USER
KNOWLEDGE ON
TRANSPORT
SYSTEM
SYSTEM MODEL
INFORMATION ON PERCEIVED
CHOICE SET
MODEL
UPDATE
SYSTEM SIMULATION
RESULTS
ANALYSIS
INFORMATION ON PERCEIVED
LEVEL OF SERVICE OF
TRANSPORT ALTERNATIVES
YES
INFORMATION IS
CONSISTENT
NO
RESULTS
DISSEMINATION
G. Circella
Defining new
scenarios
POLICIES FOR
IMPROVING
USER
INFORMATION
The
methodology
allows
investigating the level of
knowledge travellers have of
the local transport system.
Information about travel options
is provided to the participants in
steps, verifying any differences
arising
between
choice
behaviour in the “everyday”
local context
and choice
preferences expressed after the
provision of relevant information
about the system.
The proposed approach allows
defining
the
necessary
interventions
for
the
enhancement
of
travellers’
information (soft interventions
on the system)
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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5.
Participatory processes to enhance the
efficiency of the system (Soft Interventions)
Two basic objectives of the actions:
TRANSPORT USERS’
PARTICIPATION
ACTUAL
SYSTEM
DESCRIPTION
EXPERT
KNOWLEDGE
To improve information and knowledge on
the choice set (pursuing the information on
the alternatives which are not well known).
CHECK USER
KNOWLEDGE ON
TRANSPORT
SYSTEM
SYSTEM MODEL
INFORMATION ON PERCEIVED
CHOICE SET
MODEL
UPDATE
SYSTEM SIMULATION
RESULTS
ANALYSIS
INFORMATION ON PERCEIVED
LEVEL OF SERVICE OF
TRANSPORT ALTERNATIVES
YES
INFORMATION IS
CONSISTENT
NO
RESULTS
DISSEMINATION
Defining new
scenarios
G. Circella
POLICIES FOR
IMPROVING
USER
INFORMATION
To enhance the information about the
alternative attributes, with the aim of
correcting the wrong perception (or lack of
knowledge) of the alternative attributes.
Dedicated information systems can be
introduced to enhance the level of
information. They can lead to a partial reequilibrium of the use of the transport
systems, contributing to increase the use
of those travel alternatives that show
better properties with reference to
sustainability and environmental matters.
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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6.
Participatory processes for the definition of
scenarios for future transport
DEFINING TRANSPORT SYSTEM
PROJECTS
PARTICIPATION TO PROJECT DEFINITION
EXPERTS
SYSTEM USERS
LAND-USE &
TRANSPORT
SYSTEM
PROJECTS
PROJECTS
RELEVANT
SCENARIOS
RELEVANT
BEHAVIOUR
ACTORS
INFORMATION
IMPROVING
POLICIES
POSSIBLE
PROJECTS
NO
MODELING
TRANSPORT/LAND-USE
SYSTEM
USERS CHOICE
BEHAVIOUR
OUTPUT IS
CONSISTENT WITH
OBJECTIVES
SYSTEM SIMULATION
SYSTEM
PERFORMANCE AND
IMPACTS EVALUATION
DECISION
PHASE
G. Circella
YES
PROPOSAL OF SYSTEM
PROJECT
The interactions between experts and
a wider group of stakeholders lead to
the definition of the possible projects
to be modelled.
The process allows investigating the
real needs in terms of mobility of the
local
population,
implying
an
improvement of the quality of the
solutions provided, which are better
suited for the specific needs.
After the application of modelling and
simulation, the outcomes are checked
with reference to the objectives of
efficiency
and
environmental
sustainability,
which
lead
the
planning process.
The consistency of the outcomes with
the objectives is presented in an
iterative way to the actors, in order to
implement the quality of the solutions
provided.
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
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6.
Participatory processes for the definition of
scenarios for future transport
DEFINING TRANSPORT SYSTEM
PROJECTS
PARTICIPATION TO PROJECT DEFINITION
EXPERTS
SYSTEM USERS
LAND-USE &
TRANSPORT
SYSTEM
PROJECTS
PROJECTS
RELEVANT
SCENARIOS
RELEVANT
BEHAVIOUR
ACTORS
INFORMATION
IMPROVING
POLICIES
POSSIBLE
PROJECTS
NO
MODELING
TRANSPORT/LAND-USE
SYSTEM
USERS CHOICE
BEHAVIOUR
OUTPUT IS
CONSISTENT WITH
OBJECTIVES
SYSTEM SIMULATION
SYSTEM
PERFORMANCE AND
IMPACTS EVALUATION
DECISION
PHASE
G. Circella
The participatory approach allows
investigating the arising of new forms
of unexpected mobility needs, which
are not easy to be predicted in
traditional modelling.
The influence of complexity and
technological innovations on people
behaviour can be captured into the
process, leading to the definition of
transport solutions which can face the
improved mobility needs and choice
behaviour (Choo et al., 2005).
YES
PROPOSAL OF SYSTEM
PROJECT
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
25/27
OPTIMIZATION OF CHOICE MODELLING IN COMPLEX
URBAN CONTEXTS - Applications in planning for
sustainable development
1.
INTRODUCTION
2.
UNDERSTANDING TRAVELLERS’ CHOICE BEHAVIOUR
3.
PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
4.
PARTICIPATED MODELLING FOR TRANSPORT
PLANNING
5.
PLANNING FOR “SOFT” TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS
6.
STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR “HARD” INTERVENTIONS
7.
CONCLUSIONS
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
26/27
7.





CONCLUSIONS
The definition of sustainable transport solutions in complex urban contexts
requires a positive response among users to the interventions that are
introduced, in terms of people travel behaviour.
The proposed methodology has been developed with the aim of improving
the consistency of transport solutions, defining interventions that more
successfully correspond to people mobility needs, as they arises from
participatory processes.
Two basic objectives are faced in the methodology: on one hand, the use of
participation in transport planning processes is seen as an important tool to
verify the information about the transport system among the users, and to
evaluate the needs of specific interventions to improve it.
On the other hand, the participatory process is seen as a tool for making
new conceptions of the transport system emerge, contributing to the
construction of future scenarios for transport planning.
Such a process is seen to be able to detect and formalise advanced needs
existent in the territory, and to contribute to the definition of the complex
framework which is gradually emerging and which will increasingly have
effects on the economies and on the mobility of the future society.
G. Circella
DDSS 2006, Eindhoven, 4-7 July 2006
27/27