Phil Pepper
Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning
Presentation to 2010 LEARN Conference
March 29, 2010
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR MISSISSIPPI
2009 ECONOMIC STATS
Mississippi
2,951,996
United States
307,006,550
$88.9
$12,015.5
9.6%
9.3%
2009 Unemployment Rate U-4 (US BLS)
10.2%
9.7%
2008 Workforce Participation Rate, 16 yrs+ (US Census)
60.1%
66.0%
$30,103
$39,138
2009 Populations Estimate (US Census)
2009 Total Personal Income, Billions (US BEA)
2009 Unemployment Rate (US BLS)
2008 Per Capita Income (US BEA)
2
3
4
Mississippi Nonfarm Employment
1,200
1,160.6
May 00
1,159.0
Jan 08
1,150
Thousands
1,100
1,050
1,108.3
Jun 03
1,085.5
Feb 10
1,000
950
900
850
800
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
Mississippi Employment
by Major Industry Sector, 1990 - 2010
430
Thousands of Jobs
380
330
280
230
180
130
MFG
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
Services
Gov.
6
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH IN REAL GDP DURING
PERIODS OF U.S. EXPANSION/CONTRACTION
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
-6.0%
Trough-To-Peak
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHL.
7
SLOWING INCOME GROWTH IN THE US
Average Annual Growth In Real Total Personal Income
During Periods of U.S. Expansion
8
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Sep-09
Mar 09
Sep 08
Mar 08
Sep 07
Mar 07
Sep 06
Mar 06
Sep 05
Mar 05
Sep 04
Mar 04
Sep 03
Mar 03
Sep 02
Mar 02
Sep 01
Mar 01
Sep 00
Mar 00
Sep 99
Mar 99
Sep 98
Mar 98
Sep 97
Mar 97
Sep 96
Mar 96
Millions of 2004 $
MISSISSIPPI REAL VALUE
OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
9
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
Percentage of Population 18-64 in the Workforce
84%
82%
80%
78%
76%
74%
72%
70%
68%
66%
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
US
MS
10
MS CONSUMERS ARE NOT SPENDING
$50
$45
Billions
$40
$35
$30
Loans
Deposits
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Source: FDIC
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
11
SALES TAX TRANSFERS TRENDS
Transfers to the G.F. -- Growth Over Prior Year
20%
17.2%
15%
12.3%
10%
6.1%
5%
5.6%
7.6%6.7%
5.9%
4.6%
5.0%
3.5%
2.4%
6.1%
4.2%
4.1%
1.9%
1.7%
0.9%
1.4%
0.9%
0%
-1.3%
-5%
-9.5%
2010*
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
-10%
Fiscal Year
Red Bars Denote National Recessions: July 1990-March 1991; March 2001-November 2001; December 2007 – June 2009(Preliminary)
2010 Growth is the March Revised Estimate.
12
INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX TRENDS
Transfers to the G.F.-- Growth Over Prior Year
20%
18.4%
15.1%
15%
12.1%
11.5%
10.5%
10.4%
10%
7.1%
5%
9.8%
8.1% 8.3%
6.9%
6.7%
3.2%
3.3%
2.9%
4.5%
4.1%
2.6%
0%
-5%
-4.4%
-3.8%
2010*
2009
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
2008
-9.8%
-10%
Fiscal Year
Red Bars Denote National Recessions: July 1990-March 1991; March 2001-November 2001; December 2007 – June 2009(Preliminary)
2010 Growth is the March Revised Estimate.
13
GENERAL FUND TRENDS
Transfers to the G.F.-- Growth Over Prior Year
14%
12.8%
11.4%
12%
9.1%
10%
10.5%
9.7%
8%
6%
6.5%
5.9%
5.1%
7.6%
7.2%
4.0%
4%
2.8%
2.9%
2.5%
2.1%
1.3%
2%
3.1%
2.2%
0%
-2%
-4.2%
-2.1%
-4%
2010*
2009
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
2008
-6.3%
-6%
Fiscal Year
Red Bars Denote National Recessions: July 1990-March 1991; March 2001-November 2001; December 2007 – June 2009 (Preliminary).
2010 Growth is the March Revised Estimate.
14
GROWTH OVER PRIOR YEAR: WITHHOLDINGS
AND GROSS RETAIL SALES TAX TRANSFERS
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
Withholdings
Gross Sales Tax
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-09
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-10
Feb
Mar*
-20.0%
March 2010 is preliminary
15
SUMMARY
Growth in the US and MS will be below the longterm average for the foreseeable future
 Job growth in particular will be anemic in MS
 State revenue growth will be slow with greater
frequency of negative years
 Restructuring of State verses Federal
government -- politics, politics, politics
 Education, Education, Education

16
Questions
or
Comments?
17