Attribution of Haze Phase 2 and
Technical Support System
Project Update
AoH Meeting – San Francisco, CA
September 14/15, 2005
Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.
Overview
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AoH Phase 2/TSS work plan
http://wrapair.org/forums/aoh/meetings/050817c/AoH_PhaseII_Work_plan_draft_081705.pdf
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Review of data summary products and suggested
modifications for Phase 2
IWG input from August meeting
TSS scoping study
Weight of evidence approach
Critical milestones
Goals of the AoH Phase 2 Analysis
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Refine Phase 1 techniques for use in Phase 2.
Reduce uncertainty and address the remaining
uncertainty in modeled data and attribution results.
Analyze the differences between modeled results for
2002 and the projected 2018 base case and various
other control strategy scenarios.
Develop additional analytical approaches (e.g., receptor
modeling, trends analysis, determination of the
representativeness of baseline data set).
Goals of the AoH Phase 2 TSS Project
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Provide a single web-based location for access and
display of technical data, display of analytical results,
and the reference location for related documentation to
support the regional haze implementation plans.
Provide specific analysis tools to synthesize technical
and contextual data and GIS layers, conduct analyses,
and store results for subregional/local/Class I areaspecific regional haze planning.
Provide the analysis and display tools for Phase 2
analyses, and the technical support documentation for
WRAP region SIPs and TIPs for regional haze.
Team Members and Responsibilities
Team Member
ARS
Primary Contacts
Joe Adlhoch
CIRA
Shawn McClure
Rodger Ames
ENVIRON
Gerry Mansell
Ralph Morris
Image Matters
Jeff Ehman
John Davidson
AoH Work Group
Responsibilities
Analysis lead, responsible for compilation and
interpretation of attribution and related results and
communication with AoH and Implementation work
groups
Design/development lead and hosting; acquire
appropriate data sets; use other team members for
development support as appropriate (funded under
separate contract)
Emissions inventory development and modeling
results (predominantly funded under separate
contract)
Transfer of emissions, modeling, and attribution data
to CIRA; development support for GIS applications
as required
Architectural/technical design; metadata template
and catalog development; data discovery, viewing,
and access capability - design and implementation;
interoperability standards and specifications; GIS
application support as required; documentation
Provide oversight and review of web site
development and products
Work Plan Tasks – Analysis Project
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Task 1: Solicit and define user requirements from the
appropriate WRAP work groups.
Task 2: Prepare suite of data products based on final
2002 emissions, modeling, and attribution results.
Task 3: Define the weight of evidence (WOE)
approach to be applied to AoH Phase 2 data.
Task 4: Interpret 2018 results and implications for
showing progress under the Regional Haze Rule.
Task 5: Prepare draft and final AoH Phase 2 analysis
report.
(Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports and solicit
project feedback at WRAP meetings.)
Work Plan Tasks – TSS Project
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Task 6: Perform TSS requirements analysis and scoping
study.
Task 7a: Acquire and prepare the relevant databases.
Task 7b: Summarize and evaluate WRAP Dust inventory.
Task 8: Develop data review interfaces based on user
requirements.
Task 9: Develop data exchange protocols and guidelines.
Task 10: Develop method to capture on-line user feedback.
Task 11: Travel to provide progress reports and solicit
project feedback at WRAP meetings.
Project Timing by Task
AoH Phase 2 Analysis
Month
1
August 2005
September 2005
October 2005
November 2005
December 2005
January 2006
February 2006
March 2006
April 2006
May 2006
June 2006
July 2006
August 2006
September 2006
October 2006
Task(s)
2
3
4
5
TSS Development
Task(s)
6 7a,b 8
9 10
Travel
Task
11
TSS Data Summary Products
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Emissions, monitoring, modeling, and attribution results
will be housed in on-line databases
User requests will combine data with contextual
information and/or GIS layers (if appropriate)
ARS and AoH work group will develop a Weight of
Evidence (WOE) approach for integrating results
Scoping study (Task 6) will determine the level of
sophistication achievable for data products during project
All data used for 2007 SIPS/TIPS will be version
controlled to keep it separate from new data and
information added to the TSS over time
Draft TSS Home Page
Emissions Data
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Sulfer Dioxide (SO2)
1,326 thousand tons/yr
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOX)
4,479 thousand tons/yr
Volatile Organic Carbon (VOC)
17,288 thousand tons/yr
Point
Area
Ammonia (NH3)
1,938 thousand tons/yr
On-Road Mobile
Off-Road Mobile
Rx Fires
Ag Fires
Off-Shore
Windblown Dust
Road Dust
Wildland Fire
Fine Particulates (PM2.5)
2,345 thousand tons/yr
Biogenics
Animals/Soils NH3
Coarse Particulates (PMC)
3,524 thousand tons/yr
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Use EDMS as data source
Summary of emissions
data will be available by
source type, point, county,
and grid cell
Provide summaries of
projected changes in
emissions from 2002 to
2018
Include GIS information
Monitoring/Modeling Data
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Display visibility
based on monitoring
or modeling results
Include RHR and other
monitoring data sets
Tie in 2000-2004 baseline
and glide
path results
Include GIS
information
Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide Path
Great Smoky Mountains NP (TN) - 20% Worst Days
35
28.94
30
Haziness Index (Deciviews)
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27.77
24.86
25
25.23
23.76
21.94
19.02
20
16.11
15
13.19
11.44
10
5
0
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
2044
2049
2054
2059
2064
Year
Glide Path
Natural Condition (Worst Days)
Observation
Method 1B Prediction
Attribution Data
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Attribution results will
include: PSAT, TRA, PMF
Integrate results with EIs
Provide more results with
map products than in Phase 1
Review attribution groupings
TSSA Sulfate Contribution
Attributed to the "Other"
(non-Point, non-Mobile)
Source Category
1
10
TSSA Sulfate
Contribution by
"Other"
10%
40%
9
2
11
3
4
12
8
70%
5
7
13
20
19
14
18
6
15
17
16
Supporting Data
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Assess what supporting
data is needed for SIP/TIP
preparation and WOE
Regional assessments
included in Phase 1?
Back trajectory summaries?
Integrate with GIS data?
Links to data web sites
New Data Summary Products
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Presentation of control strategies – may be descriptive text
with bar charts showing anticipated reductions
Projected 2018 emissions, visibility, modeling, and
attribution results – will be able display just like 2002
results; will also include display of 2002-2018 changes
Historical trend and future glide slope analyses – may
include multiple data sets (RHR, “raw”) and extinction
equations (current and proposed) – both VIEWS and
COHA projects working on versions of these products
Weight of evidence approach
Ability for users to add data/GIS layers/analyses to TSS
IWG SIP Outline
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Revised SIP outline
developed at August 2930 meeting
Items in red are directly
supportable by TSS and
are required products of
TSS
Each of these items
exists from Phase 1 or is
planned for the TSS
SIP Cover #1
SIP Submittal Letter
SIP Submittal letter enclosure (Authorizing statutes)
SIP Completeness Checklist
Executive Summary
(required)
(optional)
(required)
(Optional)
SIP Cover #2
1. Regional Haze Background
1.1. What is Visibility Impairment
(optional)
1.2. State description (Class I Areas list/maps)
(optional)
1.3. Visibility History
(optional)
1.4. Existing Visibility Protection in State
(optional)
1.4.1. Monitoring Strategy
1.5. Federal Land Manager Consultation
(required)
[Note: Refer to Appendices for contact letter & notice of SIP Hearing]
1.6. Collaboration with Tribes (strongly suggested/required if tribal source impacts CIA )
2. Regulatory Overview
2.1. Monitoring Strategy
2.2. Establishing Reasonable Progress Goals
2.2.1. Baseline Conditions
2.2.2. Natural Conditions
2.2.3. Glide path
2.2.4. Consideration/Consultation of RPG factors
2.2.4.1. Costs of compliance
2.2.4.2. Time necessary for compliance
2.2.4.3. Energy and non-air quality environmental impacts of compliance
2.2.4.4. Remaining useful life of any potentially affected sources
2.2.5. Consultation on RPG’s
2.2.6. Emissions reductions measures needed
2.3. Apportionment of Contribution by Pollutant and Predominant Sources
2.3.1. Contribution from Outside the State
2.3.2. Contribution from natural sources
2.4. Projected Emissions by Pollutant
2.5. Long Term Strategies
2.5.1. Enforcement (description of existing control strategies, authority)
2.6.
Demonstration of Reasonable Progress
2.6.1. Weight of Evidence
2.6.2. Consultation
2.7.
Periodic Review [NOTE: 5 year average of annual values]
3. National, regional and state-wide strategies
3.1.1. 2018 Baseline/Alternative Control Strategies
3.1.2. Mobile Sources
3.1.3. Enhanced Smoke Management Plans
4. Class I Area Analyses (to be used with Table __)
4.1. CIA #1
4.1.1. Analysis of chapter 2 requirements
4.2. CIA #2, etc
5. Class I Areas (and Tribal Class I Areas) Impacted by (my) State
[NOTE: Same analysis as Chapter 3, but by percentage of apportionment]
IWG Flow Chart for
Uniform Rate of Progress
2018 Baseline/Alternative Control Scenario Flowchart
2018 Baseline
Scenario
Analyze 2018
Alternate Control
Scenarios
NO
Uniform Rate of
Progress Met?
YES
Done
NO
Uniform Rate of
Progress met?
YES
NO
Justify why Uniform
Rate of Progress not
met
TSS Scoping Study Outline
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Identify, understand, and refine the user/system
requirements
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Explore the architectural options
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Match products types with user needs (e.g., SIP outline)
Identify a set of case studies that illustrate the system’s use
Select and evaluate a candidate architecture (feasibility, available
expertise)
Revisit system requirements – changes needed?
Finalize selection: create set of documents and diagrams that
describe system architecture, team member roles
Generate a detailed project plan
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What is feasible with available time/funds?
What cannot be done at this time?
Minimum requirement: MUST support SIP preparation
TSS Scoping Study Schedule
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Scoping study (task 6) must be completed before
most of the remaining TSS tasks (7-10) can be
started
Expected completion: November 2005
AoH work group will receive a detailed update at
November meeting
Weight of Evidence Approach
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Recipe for assessment of reasonable progress:
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Checklist containing each products type:
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Succinct description of what information product displays
Relative uncertainty of each product
Relative importance or weight of each product
Assessment of how well various analyses “agree”:
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Comparison between 2000-04 baseline and 2018 base case
Review alternate methods of calculating 2000-04 baseline (exclude fire, etc.?)
Review of alternate 2018 control scenarios
Justification of why a site does or does not show reasonable progress
Do all attribution methods tend toward similar results?
Do EIs combined with back trajectory analyses support attribution results?
Do changes in EIs support reasonable rate of progress demonstration?
Prepare tutorial for users – several case studies which require
somewhat different approaches
Weight of Evidence Approach
(Recap of Ralph’s slide)
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Glide paths and modeled RPG test (EPA)
Eliminate days dominated by “natural” events in
modeled RPG test (e.g., fires, dust)
2018 projections for species dominated by
anthropogenic emissions (e.g., SO4, NO3)
2018 projections for modeled worst visibility days,
worst sulfate days, etc.
Other???
Review of AoH Project Schedule
Phase 2
Report