New Frontiers in the Economics of Innovation and New Technology New Frontiers in the Economics of Innovation and New Technology Essays in Honour of Paul A. David Edited by Cristiano Antonelli Professor of Economics and Director of the Department of Economics at the University of Torino, Italy Dominique Foray Professor of Economics of Innovation and Director of the College of Management of Technology at the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland Bronwyn H. Hall Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley, Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and the Institute of Fiscal Studies, London W. Edward Steinmueller Professor of Information and Communication Technology Policy, SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, UK Edward Elgar Cheltenham, UK • Northampton, MA, USA © Cristiano Antonelli, Dominique Foray, Bronwyn H. Hall and W. Edward Steinmueller, 2006 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Published by Edward Elgar Publishing Limited Glensanda House Montpellier Parade Cheltenham Glos GL50 1UA UK Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc. 136 West Street Suite 202 Northampton Massachusetts 01060 USA A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data New frontiers in the economics of innovation and new technology: essays in honour of Paul A. David/edited by Cristiano Antonelli . . . [et al.] p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Innovative technology–Economic aspects. 2. Diffusion of innovations– Economic aspects. I. Antonelli, Cristiano. II. David, Paul A. HC79.T4N472 2005 338’.064–dc22 2005046147 ISBN-13: 978 1 84376 631 5 ISBN-10: 1 84376 631 0 Printed and bound in Great Britain by MPG Books Ltd, Bodmin, Cornwall Contents vii List of contributors PART I 1 The economics of innovation: between and Cristiano Antonelli, Dominique Foray, Bronwyn H. Hall and W. Edward Steinmueller PART II 2 3 4 5 GENERAL INTRODUCTION PATH DEPENDENCE IN TECHNICAL CHANGE Competing technologies, technological monopolies and the rate of convergence to a stable market structure Andrea P. Bassanini and Giovanni Dosi 23 Path dependence, localised technological change and the quest for dynamic efficiency Cristiano Antonelli 51 A history-friendly model of innovation, market structure and regulation in the age of random screening of the pharmaceutical industry Franco Malerba and Luigi Orsenigo Path dependence and diversification in corporate technological histories John Cantwell 6 Is the world flat or round? Mapping changes in the taste for art G.M. Peter Swann 7 Waves and cycles: explorations in the pure theory of price for fine art Robin Cowan PART III 8 3 70 118 158 188 THE ECONOMICS OF KNOWLEDGE Learning in the knowledge-based economy: the future as viewed from the past 207 W. Edward Steinmueller v vi 9 Contents The economics of open technology: collective organisation and individual claims in the ‘fabrique lyonnaise’ during the old regime Dominique Foray and Liliane Hilaire Perez 239 10 Measurement and explanation of the intensity of co-publication in scientific research: an analysis at the laboratory level 255 Jacques Mairesse and Laure Turner 11 Epistemic communities and communities of practice in the knowledge-based firm Patrick Cohendet and Ash Amin 296 Markets for technology: ‘panda’s thumbs’, ‘calypso policies’ and other institutional considerations Ashish Arora, Andrea Fosfuri and Alfonso Gambardella 323 The key characteristics of sectoral knowledge bases: an international comparison Stefano Brusoni and Aldo Geuna 361 12 13 PART IV THE DIFFUSION OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES 14 Uncovering general purpose technologies with patent data Bronwyn H. Hall and Manuel Trajtenberg 15 Equilibrium, epidemic and catastrophe: diffusion of innovations with network effects Luís M.B. Cabral 16 Technological diffusion under uncertainty: a real options model applied to the comparative international diffusion of robot technology Paul Stoneman and Otto Toivanen PART V 17 427 438 POSTSCRIPT An appreciation of Paul David’s work Dominique Foray Index 389 471 475 Contributors Ash Amin, University of Durham, UK Cristiano Antonelli, University of Turin, Italy Ashish Arora, Heinz School of Public Policy and Management, Pittsburgh, USA Andrea P. Bassanini, OECD, Paris, France Stefano Brusoni, University of Bocconi, Milan, Italy Luís M.B. Cabral, New York University, USA John Cantwell, Rutgers University, Newark, USA Patrick Cohendet, Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France Robin Cowan, Universiteit Maastricht, the Netherlands Giovanni Dosi, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy Dominique Foray, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale, Lausanne, Switzerland Andrea Fosfuri, Universidad Carlos III, Madrid, Spain Alfonso Gambardella, University of Bocconi, Milan, Italy Aldo Geuna, SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, UK Bronwyn H. Hall, University of California, Berkeley, USA Liliane Hilaire Perez, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, France Jacques Mairesse, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, France Franco Malerba, University of Bocconi, Milan, Italy Luigi Orsenigo, University of Bocconi, Milan, Italy W. Edward Steinmueller, SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, UK Paul Stoneman, Warwick Business School, UK vii viii Contributors G.M. Peter Swann, Nottingham University Business School, UK Otto Toivanen, Helsinki School of Economics, Finland Manuel Trajtenberg, Tel Aviv University, Israel Laure Turner, Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l’Administration Economique, France PART I General Introduction 1. The economics of innovation: between and Christiano Antonelli, Dominique Foray, Bronwyn H. Hall and W. Edward Steinmueller 1 PRELUDE The birth and infancy of innovation economics, as a specific area of academic study and empirical research, and one that had applications to real problems of industrial growth, firm strategy and economic policy, occurred at the same time that the boundaries of economic theory were expanding horizontally in the 1950s and 1960s. During that period, economic theory began to offer a detailed and interpretative framework for the study of economics, assimilated the Keynesian heresy as a structural variation in behavioural modelling, and foraged for new areas of research in which to apply its analytical categories and its powerful mechanisms of systematic analysis. This newly found confidence in the methodological validity of individual decision-making and marginal calculations was based upon rigorous assumptions about the rational behaviour of agents. The addition of a new, large macroeconomic area based upon the paradigm of general economic equilibrium, encouraged economists to venture still further into new areas of application. The extraordinary heuristic capacity of economic theory supported bold claims of explanatory competence and scientific primacy for the field. It is not surprising that those years are sometimes spoken of as economic imperialism. The new territories that economic theory colonised included the economics of health and education, of risk and insurance, of uncertainty and information, and of marriage and the family. Economics and related disciplines claimed to be able rationally to assess choice, in all of its manifestations, by processing the alternatives through the machinery of finance, probability and opportunity cost. At the same time there was a progressive specialisation of competencies. Areas which up to then had been thought of as interchangeable, such as international and regional, developed and developing economies or emerging and mature industries, became distinct. 3 4 General introduction There are many reasons why this phase can be metaphorically referred to as the . Just as the Greek heroes started their campaign of conversion of the barbarians to the superiority of Greek culture and ideology by winning the Golden Fleece, economists were convinced that their insights had become universal. In particular, their insights could be applied to the origin and spread of innovation and, consequently, to the issues of technical progress, science, the university and, even, the creative process. The result was that economists asked themselves not only what creates a nation’s wealth, but also why are certain countries more innovative than others or why do certain historic periods appear to be more fertile and dynamic than others? The analysis of what determines innovative activity, identified as a specific form of economic action, was distinguished from the analysis of the effects of introducing innovation. In this way, innovation economics invaded the territory that had already been subdivided by industrial economics, the theory of the firm, regional economics while not ignoring important points of international economics and, above all, public economics. The claim of scholars of innovation to the ownership of the Golden Fleece was certainly at hand: the rate of growth of economic systems and their share of the international market, wage differentials and rates of profit were increasingly linked to innovative capacity. Innovative capacity was (and still is) perceived as one of the fundamental source of a nation’s wealth and more specifically the ever changing, if not increasing, differences in that wealth. The wealth of knowledge and the abundance of recipes, diagnoses and therapies, deriving from the economics of innovation have tempted many of its followers to advocate the , a contest for the capital cities waged from what is still often regarded as the hinterland. Studying and investigating the multifaceted field of innovation economics has, in fact, more than once unearthed some awkward and significant results; results that cannot easily be ignored and that are, at least in some circles, embarrassing for claimants to the Golden Fleece of a true knowledge of the means and ends by which economic results are produced. This is true, above all, in the dominant theory that the imposing expedition had advanced and, indeed, financed. Technological knowledge does not appear to be an exogenous flow into the economic system, as had been assumed for the purpose of ‘simplifying’ analysis. Neither does it appear that the choice of factors of production or individuals’ preferences are necessarily reversible. The workings of the whole economic system seem to be far from such Newtonian physics. Instead, the emerging model of economic life is one suffused with nonergodic dynamic elements, where the path taken shapes the destination The economics of innovation 5 reached, where rate and direction are interdependent and where causes are entangled with effects in uncomfortable new patterns. Correspondingly, examining the origins and spread of innovation has made it possible to understand clearly how incomplete and indeed inaccurate it is to assume that economic agents act in a perfectly rational way with the corollaries of perfect cognition and predictive capacity. There is a notable absence in the real world of the race of super-rational agents endowed with rational expectations and able, thereby, to anticipate a whole range of future actions including innovation and new patterns of consumers’ preference. But an even fiercer battle remains to be waged. For, if technological knowledge is no longer exogenous, but instead strongly influenced by the unfolding of economic life, the same hypotheses regarding the workings of the market must also be questioned. Firms do not limit themselves to adjusting outputs to prices, but also struggle to survive or race to supremacy through innovation. In such a world, it can be understood that it is no longer possible to imagine a single general economic equilibrium, it is necessary to speak more of a range or, perhaps, even more precisely, of a series of possible general economic equilibria. When the evolution of consumers’ preferences are also recognised as being endogenous and dependent upon experience, it seems equally doubtful that we are living in the best available world, and that we might at the same time know how long or how far our journey might be to a better one. As innovative capacity is strongly influenced by the processes of accumulation of technical knowledge, the direction that we take in attempting to add to this accumulation affects what destination can be reached. And through this uncertainty, choice, imagination and inspiration are reintroduced into economic life. The weapons for the are by now ready. Will our heroes manage to complete the journey which returns them to Athens? And, above all, will Athens be able to appreciate the new language, the plates and gold and silver that the Argonauts will bring with them? Will Athens be able to recognise that its past certainties were limited and fragile, and were, above all, based on static and incoherent assumptions, although they were the source of great daring and farsightedness? Economics of innovation enters the twenty-first century unable to decide between the modest yet reassuring temptation to consolidate long-held certainties and the far bolder and more tenuous goal of rewriting the model. Regardless, it has begun its return from the interior to the country of its birth, eager to show that new truths are to be discovered that are less certain but more complex and plausible than those made by the forefather conquerors. This is the context into which the lifelong contribution of Paul David can be better appreciated and valued. David has built essential pathways 6 General introduction in both directions; in the as well as in the . The contribution of David has been fundamental in the to building economics of innovation as a new discipline and area of specialist expertise and competence. In the same fruitful career, Paul David has contributed some of the most powerful analytical tools by which the may be organised. In this introduction we review David’s contributions to three important areas in the economics of innovation: the economics of knowledge, the role of path dependence in the evolution of economic equilibria and the diffusion of new technologies. We have necessarily been selective in our choice of contributions to discuss, lest this introduction become longer than the volume it introduces! Nevertheless we hope that our brief surveys will give the reader an idea of his many faceted contributions to this literature, at the same time that it places the chapters in the context in which they were written. 2 THE ECONOMICS OF KNOWLEDGE While ‘knowledge’ in a very broad sense has always been at the heart of Paul David’s work, at both microscopic and macroscopic levels, he came to explore this topic more systematically in the early 1990s. Starting with the analysis of the peculiar properties of knowledge and information as an economic good, he proceeds to the historical and normative analysis of resource allocation mechanisms in the field of knowledge production and distribution and, more generally, socio-economic institutions that can be relied upon to produce, mediate and use knowledge efficiently. The intellectual journey of Paul David in this field consists of a systematic exploration of the three-dimensional space in which ‘knowledge-products’ are distributed.1 The first dimension of that space is the continuum between secrecy and full disclosure; the second is the spectrum of asset ownership status ranging from legally enforced private property rights to pure public goods; and the third is the dimension along which codification appears at one extreme and tacitness at the other. How do institutions, technologies and economic factors determine the location of knowledge in this three-dimensional space, and what are the implications of this on allocative efficiency in the domain of knowledge production and use? These two questions are raised repeatedly in Paul David’s work. The argument that knowledge and information have the properties of public goods creates the theoretical framework in which these questions are addressed. The economics of innovation 7 Knowledge, the Lighthouse and the Economist David has made it very clear that saying a good (for example, knowledge) is a public good, on the basis of the properties of non-excludability and non-rivalry, does not imply that this good must necessarily be produced by the state, that markets for it do not exist or that its private production is impossible. It simply means that, considering the properties of the good, it is not possible to rely exclusively on a system of competitive markets to efficiently guarantee its production. Considering the example of the lighthouse as a paradigmatic case of a public good, David shows that the fact that the lighthouse service was once provided by the private sector in the UK, as Coase documented in a famous paper, does not mean that the lighthouse is a private good.2 Private markets function in this case because an agent is granted local monopoly on the right to collect a tax in exchange for the service provided. In the same way, the creation of a private monopoly on new knowledge (a patent) enables the market to produce that good. But in both cases the remedy is imperfect, for the owner of the monopoly will not supply the ‘light’ (of the lighthouse or of the knowledge) at a price (harbour tax or royalties) equivalent to the negligible cost of making these goods available to additional users (the marginal cost of use of existing knowledge is nil, as it is in the case of using the harbour’s lighthouse).3 What are the consequences of such a clear and strict position on the economic nature of knowledge? In the domain of the production of new ideas (a very broad domain ranging from scientific discovery and technological and engineering innovations to intellectual creation), the fundamental problem for the allocative efficiency of competitive markets arises from the externalities that exist because of the public good nature of ideas. It is, therefore, crucial to analyse the historical emergence and the allocative efficiency of various kinds of institutions devised to correct or to provide alternatives to such market failures. The 3 Ps figure (public procurement, patronage and private property) then provides a framework for such an investigation.4 From the New Economics of Science . . . In this direction, the main contribution of David (notably with Partha Dasgupta) has been the rigorous and systematic exploration of the economics of ‘open science’ – including both a detailed analysis of the norm of openness which is ‘incentive-compatible with a collegiate reputational reward system based upon accepted claims to priority’,5 and an analysis of the historical emergence of this institution.6 Both analytical and modelling approaches show how efficient such a system is, for it ensures the rapid and 8 General introduction complete diffusion of new knowledge while preserving a certain level of incentive.7 Moreover, complete disclosure functions as a sort of ‘quality assurance’ in so far as published results can be reproduced and verified by other members of the community. Given the fact that by most measures the productivity of scientific research as organised under these institutional principles has been outstanding, it is clear that the economics of open science provides a framework to study and assess other kinds of institution with similar positive effects on the growth of knowledge. The economics of free/libre open source software is, for example, a direct extension of the work done on science. Today, David is in the forefront of research on this particular class of social systems in which high rates of innovation are correlated with rich spillovers, implying that private agents do not always rely on exclusivity and excludability mechanisms to capture private benefits from their intellectual creative work. . . . to the Comedy of the Commons Owing to the peculiar features of knowledge, the production of knowledge has the potential to create a ‘combinatorial explosion’. This good is difficult to control and can be used and reused infinitely to produce other knowledge which is in turn non-excludable, non-rival and cumulative, and so forth. In many cases knowledge is also deliberately disclosed and organised in order to facilitate its access and reproduction by others. All these processes give rise to the creation and expansion of a ‘knowledge commons’. ‘Knowledge commons’ are not subject to the classic tragedy of the commons, a parable describing the case where exhaustible resources (such as a pasture or a shoal of fish) are subject to destruction by unregulated access and exploitation. Knowledge may be used concurrently by many, without diminishing its availability to any of the users, and will not become ‘depleted’ through intensive use. As David recently wrote, contradicting the American poet Robert Frost’s elegy to New England civility, good fences do not make good neighbours: ‘information is not like forage, depleted by use for consumption; data sets are not subject to being “overgrazed” but instead are likely to be enriched and rendered more accurate and more fully documented the more researchers are allowed to comb through them’.8 The properties of non-excludability, non-rivalry and cumulativeness have features akin to quasi-infinite increasing returns. Thus, the commons is not tragic, but comedic, in the classical sense of a story with a happy ending. Managing and protecting the ‘knowledge commons’ requires social regulations that are entirely different from the social arrangements used to regulate ecological systems of exhaustible The economics of innovation 9 resources. In this respect, Paul David has devoted a great deal of time and intellectual creativity to conceive of remedies to the current tendency to strengthen intellectual property systems, especially as they apply to scientific research and scientific databases. ‘Knowledge on Line’: the Economics of Learning-by-doing Learning-by-doing has been a key form of technical change analysed by Paul David in his studies in economic history, allowing him to address the issues of localised learning, the importance of history, and the policy implications of supporting infant industries (see the section on path dependence).9 Apart from these works on economic history and path dependence, the most interesting contribution of David related to learning-by-doing is perhaps his emphasis on the fact that the economics of learning-by-doing appears to be an area in which the conflict between static and dynamic efficiency is particularly important. There is a tension between the normal performance expected in the course of ordinary operations and the learning aspect: In most instances of learning-by-doing, the feedback from experience to inferred understanding is severely constrained. The doers have limited facilities for accurately observing and recording process outcomes, or for hypothesizing about the structure of the processes they are trying to control. Advances in knowledge that are empirically grounded upon inferences from trial-and-error in a myopic control process cannot be a big help when they are restricted in both the number of trials they can undertake, and the states of the world they can imagine as worth considering.10 In a similar vein, David has been a pioneer in building the concept of experimental or explicitly cognitive learning-by-doing.11 Such a process consists in performing experiments during the production of goods or services, or in the case considered by David and Sanderson, the production (or non-production) of children. Through these experiments new options are spawned and variety emerges. This is learning based on an experimental concept, where data is collected so that the best strategy for future activities can be selected. Technical and organisational changes are then introduced as a consequence of learning-by-doing. In other words, explicitly cognitive learning-by-doing consists of ‘on line’ experiments. The possibility of moving on to explicitly cognitive learning in activities other than ‘craft trades’ represents an important transition in the historical emergence of the knowledge-based economy. As long as an activity remains fundamentally reliant on learning processes that are procedures of routine adaptation and leave no room for deliberate planning of experiments during economic 10 General introduction activity, the gap between those who deliberately produce knowledge and those who use and exploit it remains wide. When an activity moves on to higher forms of learning where the individual can plan experiments and draw conclusions, knowledge production becomes far more collectively distributed. The Increasing Use of Codification . . . Paul David has been a leader in the analysis of the economic significance of knowledge codification both at the macro and micro levels. Codified knowledge serves inter alia as a storage depository, as a reference point and possibly as an authority.12 As such, codification is a state in which knowledge is presented (improving memory, learning and communication), a tool for constructing new knowledge and a means to facilitate co-ordination. In pointing out the important distinction between knowledge that is codifiable (in the sense of articulable) and that which actually is codified, and in focusing analytical attention upon the endogenous boundary between what is and what is not codified at a particular point in time, David and colleagues have helped to persuade economists to ‘colonize’ this new area (previously left open to other social sciences) with their tools and concepts. At the macroeconomic level, Abramovitz and David have analysed knowledge codification as both the driving force behind the expansion of the knowledge base and its favourite form; in short, the most salient characteristic of modern economic growth.13 . . . and the Trap of ‘Taciturnity’ Investment in codification is suboptimal due to public good problems and high fixed costs. Any lack of attention paid to complementary components of a codified knowledge base (continuity of languages, software enabling access to older files) runs the risk of irremediably altering the codified knowledge base and diminishing private and social returns from codification investments. One policy failure can, therefore, be seen in the lack of provision of incentives to codify resulting in the building of excessive stocks of knowledge that are left in a ‘tacit’ form. These accumulations of tacit knowledge are distributed throughout the private sector in a way that makes them more costly to locate, to appraise and to transfer. Policies that encourage strategies of excessive tacitness by some firms thus tend to reduce incentives for other firms to invest in searching for existing codified solutions to their scientific and technological problems. A result may be excessive insularity and a waste of resources. In lowering the private rate of return on The economics of innovation 11 monitoring and information searches over a wide field, such strategies and policies will reinforce excess concentration of research and development (R&D) in certain areas, and contribute to the under-utilisation of existing stocks of knowledge. ‘Taciturnity’ (a word proposed by Paul in this context) describes a deliberate failure to express feasibly codifiable information for strategic or cost reasons and may therefore create private and social inefficiencies.14 Information and Communication Technologies as a Knowledge Instrument and a Mischievous Break A central theme in Paul David’s work on knowledge is the information and communication technology (ICT) revolution in so far as it involves technologies geared to the production and dissemination of knowledge and information. Apart from the productivity paradox issue, which is mainly a ‘diffusion story’ (see section 4 in this chapter), David has developed systematic analyses of the ways in which ICTs interact with organisational and institutional changes to profoundly transform the organisation of economic activities dealing with knowledge creation. E-science is a particular field which warrants in-depth investigation in order to evaluate how far the system of knowledge production and use is transformed through the full realisation of the potential of ICTs as knowledge instruments. Scientists are now reaching the step of building and using a comprehensive virtual federation of resources. ‘Comprehensive’ means that the extent and nature of the resources available through the cyber-infrastructure (people, data, information, computational tools, specialised instruments and facilities) could approach functional completeness for a specific community of practice. However, institutional and organisational issues have to be addressed so that old institutions and organisations are not an impediment to the full and efficient deployment of resources and potentialities in an e-science environment.15 Paul David is certainly a great ‘techno-optimist’ and places strong hope in the advances of new ICTs to improve the ways people are organising their private and professional activities. However, he also knows very well that any success in collaboration and interaction with colleagues is contingent on ‘emotional trust’, namely, a sense of shared identity and familiarity. And this is not going to emerge spontaneously from long-distance collaboration even if mediated through the best of the present ICT infrastructure. This is why Paul applies to himself a practical recommendation for enhancing trust in geographically distributed teams, which is to increase travel early in the history of the project and to travel again each time emotional trust requires some further support! 12 General introduction Public–Private Interactions and the Transferability of Knowledge Direct transfers of knowledge between academic science communities and the proprietary R&D organisations of the private business sector are especially problematic to institutionalise. This is because the coexistence of two reward systems within any single organisation makes the behaviours of the participants difficult to anticipate, and tends to undermine the formation of coherent cultural norms which promote co-operation among team members. The main issue here is to maintain a proper balance between, on the one hand, the requirements of openness and autonomy of investigation (as these are required for the rapid growth of the stock of knowledge) and, on the other, the need for delays and restrictions upon the full disclosure of all new information (which facilitate the appropriation of economic returns needed to sustain investment in expanding the knowledge base).16 David is a key player in the policy debate on the current transformations of the relationships between science, technology and economic performance, and on the various institutional mechanisms to be designed to get a better protection of the public domain of knowledge from further encroachments by the domain of private property rights. A constant argument in his work is that the basic rationale of intellectual property law depends on an independent public domain containing a stock of freely accessible information. That shared collection of basic knowledge provides the building blocks for new inventions.17 How will it be possible to maintain and expand this collection of freely accessible basic knowledge in the long term? What kind of mechanisms should be designed to preserve the intellectual commons, given that they must be ‘incentive compatible’ with the private allocation of resources to inventive and innovative efforts? These are the ‘big questions’ in his exploration of the future economic organisation of a well-functioning science and technology system.18 A General Insight on this Work As a rationale for his development of such a rich repertoire of works and studies, there is in Paul David’s work a sense of inadequacies and erroneous development in the passage between the understanding that economists have gained about the very detailed mechanisms of knowledge production and distribution, and the stylised facts encapsulated in the formalities of macroeconomic models. This is perhaps why he continuously probes deeper in the microanalysis of detailed resource allocation processes in various areas of the economics of knowledge (open science, open source,
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz