Financial Sector in Slovakia: Pillar of Stability Martin Barto Sberbank Slovensko, a.s. Some historical remarks • Situation in 90s: Large state-owned banks, on-going privatisation into hands of domestic “investors“, Asian crisis • Result: Three largest banks on the verge of bankruptcy, without capital, almost 50% of non-performing loans, state was the main owner of these banks • Solution: Capital strengthening (620m EUR), bail-out (12% HDP), privatisation • Lessons learnt: Bank supervision to be strengthened, stricter regulation, role of state is only regulatory and supervisory • Legal basis: Amendments to Constitution, NBS Law, Banking Law, NBS by-laws • Institutional platform: New Banking Supervision Unit in NBS since 2002, implementing 25 core Basel principles of prudential supervision • World Bank and IMF were involved through EFSAL loan conditioned by FSAP (2002, 2006) Financial sector during crisis and euro adoption • 2006: NBS became the sole regulator and supervisor of the financial market • 2007: New organisational structure, where institutions are supervised within financial groups. Group approach has proved as very efficient. • High ROE in financial sector in these years, banks above 15% • Slovak financial sector was only marginally negatively influenced by fall of some asset prices, most investments into domestic quickly growing economy • Almost none retail loans denominated in FCY, corporate loans usually naturally hedged by company receipts from exports • L/D ratio < 1, no dependence on foreign funding • Behind this – combination of trustworthy monetary policy (low inflation expectations) as well as prudent and forward-looking FM supervision Financial sector during crisis and euro adoption • Slovakia was among few EU member states which did not need to bail-out any financial institution; although the law was adopted in line with EU demand • Other measures were taken: – NBS decree on liquidity and liquidity management in banks and branches of foreign banks – Main shareholders of domestic banks were asked to keep a part of 2008 profits in bank capital funds • These measures were meant as prevention against uncontrolled liquidity and capital outflows to mother companies, some of them were under heavy stress, applying for a support from their governments • Fully in line with the first stage of Vienna initiative • Three negative impacts on banks in 2009: crisis, loss of money market and exchange transactions with very limited new business opportunities (1/7 of total operational income) and decrease in assets (10bn €) as a result of the end of convergence game Financial sector during crisis and euro adoption • 2009 banking sector profit halved in comparison with 2008, some banks posted red figures • Insurance companies, voluntary pension funds increased their ROE in 2009; asset managements ROE went down by 1/3 • NBS stress tests proved a solid resilience of the banking sector despite combined negative factors, as well as other segments of the financial market • Stability of the financial system was crucial for all phases of the smooth euro adoption Financial sector at present • Financial sector remains the pillar of stability of the Slovak economy • NBS stress analysis (2013) says that at maximum 2% of present bank own capital should be added in the case the adverse scenarios realise • Main risks: corporate credit risk, household credit risk • Other segments: market risks, but impact on economy less important than banks • With ECB assuming the supervisory role as home supervisor for 130 main banks in eurozone, the role of NBS will change partially • Three largest banks will be supervised directly by ECB, however details are unknown • For other banks with mother companies abroad NBS will be in a role of host supervisor • Close co-operation with ECB is expected • Full responsibility for domestic banks – PB, Prima, Privatbanka, SZRB • Taking into account ownership structure, this is a tough task Financial sector at present • New banking union project underway • First element: Single Supervision Mechanism was approved by EP and Council • SSM will directly apply to 130 banks under ECB supervision, it will be binding for national authorities, ECB will have access to all data • AQR for those banks - before implementation - includes three parts: supervisory risk analysis (liquidity, funding, leverage), asset quality review and stress tests - resilience • Recapitalisation needs: 1) markets, 2) national scheme, 3) ESM • Second element: Single Resolution Mechanism - framework required: Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive - since 2015, question whether 130 or all ? • Single Resolution Authority and Single Resolution Fund • Resolution: 1) shareholders and creditors, 2) resolution fund made up by banks, 3) fiscal backstop • Each bank will be obliged to have an adequate loss-absorbing capacity Financial sector at present • Third element: How to finance failures ? • Resolution Fund created by banks • More integrated financial market as a shock absorber • Insurance scheme for tail and unexpected events • ESM to play the role of public finance backstop - lender of the last resort • This is a partial answer to the problem of banks too large to fall, single states unable to rescue them or the price is enormous (IRL) • Nevertheless, this is not a proper answer to the problem of moral hazard • Too much regulation and supervision give managements feeling of ultimate responsibility being with regulator and supervisor • Existence of SRM, ESF strengthen this feeling • Conclusion: Even Banking Union cannot exclude bank failures 8
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