2. UTILITY THEORY 2. 29 Utility Theory 2.1. The Expected Utility Hypothesis We consider an agent carrying a risk, for example a person who is looking for insurance, an insurance company looking for reinsurance, a financial engineer with a certain portfolio. Alternatively, we could consider an agent who has to decide whether to take over a risk, as for example an insurance or a reinsurance company. We consider a simple one-period model. At the beginning of the period the agent has the wealth w, at the end of the period he has the wealth w − X, where X is the loss occurred from the risk. For simplicity we assume X ≥ 0. The agent is now offered an insurance contract. An insurance contract is specified by a compensation function r : IR+ → IR+ . The insurer covers the amount r(X), the insured covers X − r(X). For the compensation of the risk taken over by the insurer, the insured has to pay the premium π. Let us first consider the properties r(x) should have. Because the insured looks for security, the function r(x) should be non-negative. Otherwise, the insured may take over a larger risk (for a possibly negative premium). On the other side, there should be no overcompensation, i.e. 0 ≤ r(x) ≤ x. Otherwise, the insured could make a gain from a loss. Let s(x) = x − r(x) be the self-insurance function, the amount covered by the insured. Sometimes s(x) is also called franchise. The insured has now the problem to find the appropriate insurance cover. If he uses the policy (π, r(x)) he will have the wealth Y = w − π − s(X) after the period. A first idea would be to consider the expected wealth IIE[Y ] and to choose the policy with the largest expected wealth. Because some administration costs will be included in the premium, the optimal decision will then always be not to insure the risk. The agent wants to reduce his risk, and therefore is interested in buying insurance. He therefore would be willing to pay a premium π such that IIE[Y ] < IIE[w − X], provided the risk is reduced. A second idea would be to compare the variances. Let Y1 and Y2 be two wealths corresponding to different insurance treaties. We prefer the first insurance form if Var[Y1 ] < Var[Y2 ]. This will only make sense if IIE[Y1 ] = IIE[Y2 ]. The disadvantage of the above approach is, that a loss IIE[X] − x will be considered as bad as a loss IIE[X] + x. Of course, the insured prefers a smaller to a larger loss. The above discussion inspires the following concept. The agent gives a value to each possible wealth; i.e., he has a function u : I → IR, called utility function, 30 2. UTILITY THEORY giving a value to each possible wealth. Here I is the interval of possible wealths attainable by any insurance under consideration. I is assumed not to be a singleton. His criterion will now be expected utility; i.e., he will prefer insurance form one if IIE[u(Y1 )] > IIE[u(Y2 )]. We now try to find properties a utility function should have. The agent will of course prefer larger wealth. Thus u(x) must be strictly increasing. Moreover, the agent is risk averse, i.e. he will weight a loss higher for small wealth than for large wealth. Mathematically we can express this in the following way. For any h > 0 the function y 7→ u(y + h) − u(y) is strictly decreasing. Note that if u(y) is a utility function fulfilling the above conditions, then also ũ(y) = a + bu(y) for a ∈ IR and b > 0 fulfils the conditions. Moreover, ũ(y) and u(y) will lead to the same decisions. Let us consider some possible utility functions. • Quadratic utility u(y) = y − y2 , 2c y ≤ c, c > 0. (2.1a) y ∈ IR, c > 0. (2.1b) • Exponential utility u(y) = −e−cy , • Logarithmic utility u(y) = log(c + y), y > −c. (2.1c) • HARA utility u(y) = (y + c)α α or u(y) = − (c − y)α α y > −c, 0 < α < 1, y < c, α > 1. (2.1d) (2.1e) The second condition for a utility function looks a little bit complicated. We therefore want to find a nicer equivalent condition. Theorem 2.1. A strictly increasing function u(y) is a utility function if and only if it is strictly concave. Proof. Suppose u(y) is a utility function. Let x < z. Then u(x + 21 (z − x)) − u(x) > u(z) − u(x + 21 (z − x)) implying u( 12 (x + z)) > 12 (u(x) + u(z)) . (2.2) 2. UTILITY THEORY 31 We fix now x and z > x. Define the function v : [0, 1] → [0, 1], α 7→ v(α) = u((1 − α)x + αz) − u(x) . u(z) − u(x) Note that u(y) concave is equivalent to v(α) ≥ α for α ∈ (0, 1). By (2.2) v( 21 ) > 21 . Let n ∈ IIN and let αn,j = j2−n . Assume v(αn,j ) > αn,j for 1 ≤ j ≤ 2n − 1. Then clearly v(αn+1,2j ) = v(αn,j ) > αn,j = αn+1,2j . By (2.2) and 12 (αn,j + αn,j+1 ) = αn+1,2j+1 , v(αn+1,2j+1 ) > 21 (v(αj,n ) + v(αn,j+1 )) > 21 (αn,j + αn,j+1 ) = αn+1,2j+1 . Let now α be arbitrary and let jn such that αn,jn ≤ α < αn,jn +1 , αn = αn,jn . Then v(α) ≥ v(αn ) > αn . Because n is arbitrary we have v(α) ≥ α. This implies that u(y) is concave. Let now α < 21 . Then u((1 − α)x + αz) = u((1 − 2α)x + 2α 12 (x + z)) ≥ (1 − 2α)u(x) + 2αu( 21 (x + z)) > (1 − 2α)u(x) + 2α 21 (u(x) + u(z)) = (1 − α)u(x) + αu(z) . A similar argument applies if α > 21 . The converse statement is left as an exercise. Next we would like to have a measure, how much an agent likes the risk. Assume that u(y) is twice differentiable. Intuitively, the more concave a utility function is, the more it is sensible to risk. So a risk averse agent will have a utility function with −u00 (y) large. But −u00 (y) is not a good measure for this purpose. Let ũ(y) = a + bu(y). Then −ũ00 (y) = −bu00 (y) would give a different risk aversion, even though it leads to the same decisions. In order to get rid of b define the risk aversion function u00 (y) d a(y) = − 0 = − ln u0 (y) . u (y) dy Intuitively, we would assume that a wealthy person can take more risk than a poor person. This would mean that a(y) should be decreasing. For our examples we have that (2.1a) and (2.1e) give increasing risk aversion, (2.1c) and (2.1d) give decreasing risk aversion, and (2.1b) gives constant risk aversion. 32 2. UTILITY THEORY 2.2. The Zero Utility Premium Let us consider the problem that an agent has to decide whether to insure his risk or not. Let (π, r(x)) be an insurance treaty and assume that it is a non-trivial insurance, i.e. Var[r(X)] > 0. If the agent takes the insurance he will have the final wealth w − π − s(X), if he does not take the insurance his final wealth will be w − X. Considering his expected utility, the agent will take the insurance if and only if IIE[u(w − π − s(X))] ≥ IIE[u(w − X)] . If equality holds, the agent is indifferent. So taking the insurance is possible. The left hand side of the above inequality is a continuous and strictly decreasing function of π. The largest value that can be attained is for π = 0, IIE[u(w − s(X))] > IIE[u(w − X)], the lowest possible value is difficult to obtain, because it depends on the choice of I. Let us assume that the lower bound is smaller or equal to IIE[u(w − X)]. Then there exists a unique value πr (w) such that IIE[u(w − πr − s(X))] = IIE[u(w − X)] . The premium πr is the largest premium the agent is willing to pay for the insurance treaty r(x). We call πr the zero utility premium. In many situations the zero utility premium πr will be larger then the “fair premium” IIE[r(X)]. Theorem 2.2. If both r(x) and s(x) are increasing and Var[r(X)] > 0 then πr (w) > IIE[r(X)]. Proof. From the definition of a strictly concave function it follows that the function v(y), x 7→ v(x) = u(w − x) is a strictly concave function. Define the functions g1 (x) = s(x) + IIE[r(X)] and g2 (x) = x. These two functions are increasing. The function g2 (x) − g1 (x) = r(x) − IIE[r(X)] is increasing. Thus there exists x0 such that g1 (x) ≥ g2 (x) for x < x0 and g1 (x) ≤ g2 (x) for x > x0 . Note that IIE[g2 (x) − g1 (x)] = 0. Thus the conditions of Corollary G.7 are fulfilled and IIE[u(w − IIE[r(X)] − s(X))] = IIE[v(g1 (X))] > IIE[v(g2 (X))] = IIE[u(w − X)] = IIE[u(w − πr − s(X))] . Because π 7→ IIE[u(w − π − s(X))] is a strictly decreasing function it follows that πr > IIE[r(X)]. Assume now that u is twice continuously differentiable. Then we find the following result. 2. UTILITY THEORY 33 Theorem 2.3. Let r(x) = x. If the risk aversion function is decreasing (increasing), then the zero utility premium π(w) is decreasing (increasing). Proof. Consider the function v(y) = u0 (u−1 (y)). Taking the derivative yields v 0 (y) = u00 (u−1 (y)) = −a(u−1 (y)) . 0 −1 u (u (y)) Because y 7→ u−1 (y) is increasing, this gives that v 0 (y) is increasing (decreasing). Thus v(y) is convex (concave). We have π(w) = w − u−1 (IIE[u(w − X)]) and π 0 (w) = 1 − IIE[u0 (w − X)] . u0 (u−1 (IIE[u(w − X)])) Let now a(y) be decreasing (increasing). By Jensen’s inequality we have u0 (u−1 (IIE[u(w − X)])) ≤ (≥) IIE[u0 (u−1 (u(w − X)))] = IIE[u0 (w − X)] and therefore π 0 (w) ≤ (≥) 0. It is not always desirable that the decision depends on the initial wealth. We have the following result. Lemma 2.4. Let u(x) be a utility function. Then the following are equivalent: i) u(x) is exponential, i.e. u(x) = −Ae−cx + B for some A, c > 0, B ∈ IR. ii) For all losses X and all compensation functions r(x), the zero utility premium πr does not depend on the initial wealth w. iii) For all losses X and for full reinsurance r(x) = x, the zero utility premium πr does not depend on the initial wealth w. Proof. This follows directly from Lemma 1.8. 2.3. Optimal Insurance Let us now consider an agent carrying several risks X1 , X2 , . . . , Xn . The total risk is then X = X1 + · · · + Xn . We consider here a compensation function r(X1 , . . . , Xn ) and a self-insurance function s(X1 , . . . , Xn ) = X − r(X1 , . . . , Xn ). We say an insurance treaty is global if r(X1 , . . . , Xn ) depends on X only, or equivalently, s(X1 , . . . , Xn ) depends on X only. Otherwise, we call an insurance treaty local. We next prove that, in some sense, the global treaties are optimal for the agent. 34 2. UTILITY THEORY Theorem 2.5. (Pesonen-Ohlin) If the premium depends on the pure net premium only, then to every local insurance treaty there exists a global treaty with the same premium but a higher expected utility. Proof. Let (π, r(x1 , . . . , xn )) be a local treaty. Consider the compensation function R(x) = IIE[r(X1 , . . . , Xn ) | X = x]. If the premium depends on the pure net premium only, then clearly R(X) is sold for the same premium, because IIE[R(X)] = IIE[IIE[r(X1 , . . . , Xn ) | X]] = IIE[r(X1 , . . . , Xn )] . By Jensen’s inequality IIE[u(w − π − s(X1 , . . . , Xn ))] = IIE[IIE[u(w − π − s(X1 , . . . , Xn )) | X]] < IIE[u(IIE[w − π − s(X1 , . . . , Xn ) | X])] = IIE[u(w − π − (X − R(X)))] . The strict inequality follows from the fact that s(X1 , . . . , Xn ) 6= S(X), because otherwise the insurance treaty would be global, and from the strict concavity. Remark. Note that the result does not say that the global treaty constructed is a good treaty. It only says, that for the investigation of good treaties we can restrict to global treaties. Let us now find the optimal insurance treaty for the insured. Theorem 2.6. (Arrow-Ohlin) Assume the premium depends on the pure net premium only and let (π, r(x)) be an insurance treaty with IIE[r(X)] > 0. Then there exists a unique deductible b > 0 such that the excess of loss insurance rb (x) = (x − b)+ has the same premium. Moreover, if IIP[r(X) 6= rb (X)] > 0 then the treaty (π, rb (x)) yields a higher utility. Proof. The function (x − b)+ is continuous and decreasing in b. We have IIE[(X − 0)+ ] ≥ IIE[r(X)] > 0 = limb→∞ IIE[(X − b)+ ]. Thus there exists a unique b > 0 such that IIE[(X − b)+ ] = IIE[r(X)]. Thus rb (x) yields the same premium. Assume now IIP[r(X) 6= rb (X)] > 0. Let sb (x) = x − rb (x). For y < b we have IIP[sb (X) ≤ y] = IIP[X ≤ y] ≤ IIP[s(X) ≤ y] , and for y > b IIP[sb (X) ≤ y] = 1 ≥ IIP[s(X) ≤ y] . 2. UTILITY THEORY 35 Note that v(x) = u(w − π − x) is a strictly concave function. Thus Ohlin’s lemma yields IIE[u(w − π − sb (X))] = IIE[v(sb (X))] > IIE[v(s(X))] = IIE[u(w − π − s(X))] . 2.4. The Position of the Insurer We now consider the situation from the point of view of an insurer. The discussion how to take decisions does also apply to the insurer. Assume therefore that the insurer has the utility function ū(x). Denote the initial wealth of the insurer by w . For an insurance treaty (π, r(x)) the expected utility of the insurer becomes IIE[ū(w + π − r(X))] . The zero utility premium π r (w ) of the insurer is the the solution to IIE[ū(w + π r (w ) − r(X))] = ū(w ) . The insurer will take over the risk if π ≥ π r (w ). By Jensen’s inequality we have ū(w ) = IIE[ū(w + π r (w ) − r(X))] < ū(w + π r (w ) − IIE[r(X)]) which yields π r (w ) − IIE[r(X)] > 0. A insurance contract can thus be signed by both parties if and only if π r (w ) ≤ π ≤ πr (w). It follows as in Theorem 2.5 (replacing s(x1 , . . . , xn ) by r(x1 , . . . , xn )) that the insurer prefers global treaties to local ones. From Theorem 2.6 (replacing s(x) by r(x)) it follows that a first risk deductible is optimal for the insurer. Thus the interests of insurer and insured contradict. Let us now consider insurance forms that take care of the interests of the insured. The insured would like that the larger the loss the larger should be the fraction covered by the insurance company. We call a compensation function r(x) a Vajda compensation function if r(x)/x is an increasing function of x. Because rb (x) = (x − b)+ is a Vajda compensation function it is clear how the insured would choose r(x). Let us now consider what is optimal for the insurer. Theorem 2.7. Suppose the premium depends on the pure net premium only. For any Vajda insurance treaty (π, r(x)) with IIE[r(X)] > 0 there exists a proportional insurance treaty rk (x) = (1−k)x with the same premium. Moreover, if IIP[r(X) 6= rk (X)] > 0 then (π, rk (x)) yields a higher utility for the insurer. 36 2. UTILITY THEORY Proof. The function [0, 1] → IR : k 7→ IIE[(1 − k)X] is decreasing and has its image in the interval [0, IIE[X]]. Because 0 < IIE[r(X)] ≤ IIE[X] there is a unique k such that IIE[rk (X)] = IIE[r(X)]. These two treaties have then the same premium. Suppose now that IIP[r(X) 6= rk (X)] > 0. Note that r(x) and rk (x) are increasing. The difference r(x) − rk (x) r(x) = − (1 − k) x x is an increasing function in x. Thus there is x0 such that r(x) ≤ rk (x) for x < x0 and r(x) ≥ rk (x) for x > x0 . The function v(x) = ū(w + π − x) is strictly concave. By Corollary G.7 we have IIE[ū(w + π − rk (X))] = IIE[v(rk (X))] > IIE[v(r(X))] = IIE[ū(w + π − rk (X))] . This proves the result. As from the point of view of the insured it turns out that the zero utility premium is only independent of the initial wealth if the utility is exponential. Proposition 2.8. Let ū(x) be a utility function. Then the following are equivalent: i) ū(x) is exponential, i.e. ū(x) = −Ae−cx + B for some A, c > 0, B ∈ IR. ii) For all losses X and all compensation functions r(x), the zero utility premium π r does not depend on the initial wealth w . Proof. The result follows analogously to the proof of Proposition 2.4. 2.5. Pareto-Optimal Risk Exchanges Consider now a market with n agents, i.e. insured, insurance companies, reinsurers. In the market there are the risks X = (X1 , . . . , Xn )> . Some of the risks may be zero, if the corresponding agent does not initially carry a risk. We allow here also for financial risks (investment). If Xi is positive, we consider it as a loss, if it is negative, we consider it as a gain. Making contracts, the agents redistribute the risk X. Formally, a risk exchange is a function f = (f1 , . . . , fn )> : IRn → IRn , 2. UTILITY THEORY such that 37 n X i=1 fi (X) = n X Xi . (2.3) i=1 The latter condition assures that the whole risk is covered. A risk exchange means that agent i covers fi (X). This is a generalisation of the insurance market we had considered before. Now each of the agents has an initial wealth wi and a utility function ui (x). Under the risk exchange f the expected terminal utility of agent i becomes Vi (f ) = IIE[ui (wi − fi (X))] . As we saw before, the interests of the agents will contradict. Thus it will in general not be possible to find f such that each agent gets an optimal utility. However, an agent may agree to a risk exchange f if Vi (f ) ≥ IIE[ui (wi − Xi )]. Hence, which risk exchange will be chosen depends upon negotiations. However, the agents will agree not to discuss certain risk exchanges. Definition 2.9. A risk exchange f is called Pareto-optimal if for any risk exchange f˜ with Vi (f ) ≤ Vi (f˜) ∀i it follows that Vi (f ) = Vi (f˜) ∀i . For a risk exchange f that is not Pareto optimal we would have a risk exchange f˜ that is at least as good for all agents, but better for at least one of them. Of course, it is not excluded that Vi (f ) < Vi (f˜) for some i. If the latter is the case then there must be j such that Vj (f ) > Vj (f˜). For the negotiations, the agents can in principle restrict to Pareto-optimal risk exchanges. Of course, in reality, the agents do not know the utility functions of the others. So the concept of Pareto optimality is more a theoretical way to consider the market. It seems quite difficult to decide whether a certain risk exchange is Pareto-optimal or not. It turns out that a simple criteria does the job. Theorem 2.10. (Borch/du Mouchel) Assume that the utility functions ui (x) are differentiable. A risk exchange f is Pareto-optimal if and only if there exist numbers θi such that (almost surely) u0i (wi − fi (X)) = θi u01 (w1 − f1 (X)) . (2.4) 38 2. UTILITY THEORY Remark. Note that necessarily θ1 = 1 and θi > 0 because u0i (x) > 0. Note also that we could make the comparisons with agent j instead of agent 1. Then we just need to divide the θi by θj , for example θ1 would be replaced by θj−1 . Proof. Assume that θi exist such that (2.4) is fulfilled. Let f˜ be a risk exchange such that Vi (f˜) ≥ Vi (f ) for all i. By concavity ui (wi − f˜i (X)) ≤ ui (wi − fi (X)) + u0i (wi − fi (X))(fi (X) − f˜i (X)) . This yields ui (wi − f˜i (X)) − ui (wi − fi (X)) ≤ u01 (w1 − f1 (X))(fi (X) − f˜i (X)) . θi P P P Using ni=1 fi (X) = ni=1 Xi = ni=1 f˜i (X) we find by summing over all i, n X ui (wi − f˜i (X)) − ui (wi − fi (X)) θi i=1 ≤ 0. Taking expectations yields n X Vi (f˜) − Vi (f ) i=1 θi ≤ 0. From the assumption Vi (f˜) ≥ Vi (f ) it follows that Vi (f˜) = Vi (f ). Thus f is Pareto-optimal. Assume now that (2.4) does not hold. By renumbering, we can assume that there is no constant θ2 such that (2.4) holds for i = 2. Let θ= IIE[u01 (w1 − f1 (X))u02 (w2 − f2 (X))] IIE[(u01 (w1 − f1 (X)))2 ] and W = u02 (w2 −f2 (X))−θu01 (w1 −f1 (X)). We have then IIE[W u01 (w1 −f1 (X))] = 0 and by the assumption IIE[W 2 ] > 0. Let now ε > 0, δ = 21 IIE[W 2 ]/IIE[u02 (w2 − f2 (X))] > 0 and f˜1 (X) = f1 (X) − (δ − W )ε, f˜2 (X) = f2 (X) + (δ − W )ε, f˜i (X) = fi (X) for all i > 2. Then f˜ is a risk exchange. Consider now V1 (f˜) − V1 (f ) − IIE[u01 (w1 − f1 (X))]δ ε h u (w − f˜ (X)) − u (w − f (X)) i 1 1 1 1 1 1 = IIE (δ − W ) − u01 (w1 − f1 (X)) , (δ − W )ε 2. UTILITY THEORY 39 where we used IIE[W u01 (w1 − f1 (X))] = 0. The right-hand side tends to zero as ε tends to zero. Thus V1 (f˜) > V1 (f ) for ε small enough. We also have V2 (f˜) − V2 (f ) − IIE[u02 (w2 − f2 (X))(W − δ)] ε h u (w − f˜ (X)) − u (w − f (X)) i 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 = IIE (W − δ) − u2 (w2 − f2 (X)) , (W − δ)ε Also here the right-hand side tends to zero. We have IIE[u02 (w2 − f2 (X))(W − δ)] = IIE[(W + θu01 (w1 − f1 (X)))W ] − δIIE[u02 (w2 − f2 (X))] = IIE[W 2 ] − δIIE[u02 (w2 − f2 (X))] = 21 IIE[W 2 ] > 0 . Thus also V2 (f˜) > V2 (f ) for ε small enough. This shows that f is not Paretooptimal. In order to find the Pareto-optimal risk exchanges one has to solve the equation (2.4) subject to the constraint (2.3). If a risk exchange is chosen, the quantity fi (0, . . . , 0) is the amount agent i has to pay (obtains if negative) if no losses occur. Thus fi (0, . . . , 0) must be interpreted as a premium. Note that for Pareto-optimality only the support of the distribution of X, not the distribution itself, does have an influence. Hence the Pareto-optimal solution can be found without investigating the risk distribution, nor the dependencies. It P also shows that any Pareto optimal solution will be a function of ni=1 Xi only. We now solve the problem explicitly. Because u0i (x) is strictly decreasing, it is invertible and its inverse (u0i )−1 (y) is strictly decreasing. Moreover, if u0i (x) is continuous (as it is under the conditions of Theorem 2.10), then (u0i )−1 (y) is continuous, too. Choose θi > 0, θ1 = 1. Then (2.4) yields wi − fi (X) = (u0i )−1 (θi u01 (w1 − f1 (X))) . Summing over i gives by use of (2.3) n X i=1 wi − n X Xi = i=1 The function g(y) = n X (u0i )−1 (θi u01 (w1 − f1 (X))) . i=1 n X i=1 (u0i )−1 (θi u01 (y)) 40 2. UTILITY THEORY is then strictly increasing and therefore invertible. If all the u0i (x) are continuous, then also g(y) is continuous and therefore g −1 (x) is continuous, too. This yields f1 (X) = w1 − g −1 n X wi − i=1 n X Xi . i=1 For i arbitrary we then obtain fi (X) = wi − (u0i )−1 θi u01 g −1 n X i=1 wi − n X Xi . i=1 Thus we have found the following result. Theorem 2.11. A Pareto-optimal risk exchange is a pool, that is each individual agent contributes a share that depends on the total loss of the group only. Moreover, each agent must cover a genuine part of any increase of the total loss of the group. If all utility functions are differentiable, then the individual shares are continuous functions of the total loss. Remark. Consider the situation insured-insurer, i.e. n = 2 and a risk of the form (X, 0)> , where X ≥ 0. For certain choices of θ2 it is possible that f1 (0, 0) < 0, i.e. the insurer has to pay a premium to take over the risk. This shows that not all possible choices of θi will be realistic. In fact, the risk exchange has to be chosen such that the expected utility of each agent is increased, i.e. IIE[ui (wi − fi (X))] ≥ IIE[ui (wi − Xi )] in order that agent i will be willing to participate. Bibliographical Remarks The results presented here can be found in [80].
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