Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Coalition support
holds up at 53-47 as Malcolm
Turnbull slides
Date
March 13, 2016 - 6:58PM
Mark Kenny
Chief political correspondent
EXCLUSIVE
Turnbull slips but coalition well ahead
Malcolm Turnbull's soaring popularity is coming down but the coalition is well ahead in the latest
Fairfax-Ipsos poll. Analysis with Mark Kenny.
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Australians are sticking with the Coalition, despite many cooling on Prime
Minister Malcolm Turnbull's performance, as Labor's plans to lift taxes on
superannuation and investment properties cause concerns with voters.
The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, conducted over the weekend, has found support
for the Coalition is stronger in March than it was in February, when talk of a
hike in the GST and ministerial resignations forced a reshuffle, hammering the
government's standing.
At 53 per cent after preferences - as allocated by voters at the last election support for the Turnbull government is now hovering around the same level
achieved by Tony Abbott at the September 2013 election, where he secured
53.5 per cent, compared with Labor on 46.5.
Labor's two-party-preferred vote stands at 47 per cent, dragged lower by
a disastrously low primary support at less than a third of voters on 31 per cent down one point in a month and 4 points lower than its long-term average of 35
since losing office.
The Coalition's primary vote stands at 45 per cent, while the Greens remain the
first choice of 14 per cent of respondents.
But the rebounding support for the Turnbull government is not matched by an
upward trend in the Prime Minister's personal standing. Mr Turnbull, who is
facing widespread criticism for keeping tax reform policies, and the timing of
both the budget and the election a secret from voters as the
government determines its election strategy, lost more shine since February
with a significant 15-point deterioration in his net approval rating.
That was made up of a 7 point drop to 55 per cent in his approval rating and an
8 point rise in his disapproval rating since February to give him a net rating of
plus-23. Last month, it was plus-28. In October, Mr Turnbull's net satisfaction
rating was plus-51.
Bill Shorten's personal numbers continued to improve - albeit off a very low
base - with his approval rating up three points to 33 per cent and his disapproval
down 3 points to 52 per cent for a net rating of minus-19.
On the head-to-head question of who would make the better prime minister, Mr
Turnbull continues to lead easily at 61-22, but even that represents a 6 point
closing of the gap by Mr Shorten.
While Mr Shorten may be encouraged by his progress, his party can take less
comfort from the public's less than enthusiastic reaction to his tax reform
policies, and to the broader view voters have on the economic competence of
the respective parties.
Just one in four voters think Labor is the better economic manager, despite the
budget deficit worsening since the Coalition promised to balance the books
within its first term of office.
Forty-three per cent of respondents think the Coalition's policies are better
suited to the economic needs of the country - a drop of seven points for the ALP
on this index since last polled in April last year, and up 2 per centage points for
the Coalition in that time.
The statistically weighted nationwide phone survey was taken between March
10-12 from the responses of 1402 voters. It has a margin of error of plus or
minus 2.6 per cent.
Its findings, based on the flow of second preferences at the last election, show a
swing away from the Coalition of just 0.5 per cent. Asked directly who would
get their second preference now, support was even higher than in September
2013, registering a small swing of 0.5 per cent towards the Coalition.
The survey suggests the ALP vote is now being adversely affected by Mr
Shorten's plans to reduce generous superannuation tax breaks for the wealthy,
and to limit the scope of negative gearing tax breaks on investment
properties by restricting it to new investment housing exclusively, and halving
the capital gains tax concession on them.
Unsurprisingly, these policies tend to be the least popular with those likely to be
most directly disadvantaged such as those with incomes above $100,000 per
annum.
Forty per cent of voters said they opposed Labor's plans on superannuation and
42 per cent said the same about negative gearing changes.
The numbers for support were 35 and 34 per cent respectively.
On cutting high-end superannuation tax breaks, there was almost no difference
between Labor and conservative voters with 35 per cent support for each group,
although Greens supports backed the change more decisively at the rate of 43
per cent.
But 41 per cent of Coalition voters and 40 per cent of Labor voters did not
approve of the change.
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