Executive Summary
Analysis of the key findings of the study on the perceptions of
citizens about the functioning of institutions and political parties,
the role of EU, U.S. and OSCE in Albania's political arena and
citizens’ preferencestowardsa new President.
TiranaJune 2012
1. STUDY PURPOSE
The purpose of this study is to measure perceptions of
Albanian citizens on the functioning of institutions and
political parties, the role of EU, U.S. and OSCE in Albania's
political arena and citizens’ preferences towards a new
President.
www.soros.al
Tirana, June 2012
2. METHODOLOGY
The study was conducted mixing three techniques, an online
survey, face to face interviews and phone interviews. The
online survey was implemented through an online
questionnaire that reached mainly young responders of
urban areas. The field survey was implemented through face
to face interviews in households of rural areas, reaching
mainly old age voters. The phone survey was conducted in
Tirana reaching mainly old age voters. The sample for the
rural areas, made of 250 responders, was designed based on
the number of voting centers of rural areas, in May 2011 local
elections, and on the number of inhabitants in most
populated Communes of the country, based on 2011 Census
preliminary results . A total of 25 Primary Sample Units (1 in
each big Commune) were selected to conduct face to face
interviews. Interviewers randomly selected one in every
three households, beginning from the starting point.
Responders of households were chosen randomly using next
birthday method.
conducted from 1 to 3 June 2012.Phone interviews in Tirana
were conducted from 1 to 4 June 2012.
After the data cleaning the total number responders is 7,669.
Hence the sample of this study consists of 7,669 respondents
of age 17+, of whom 53.54% residents of urban areas and
46.16% residents of rural areas. The sample of 7,669
respondents has been proportionally weighted in SPSS by
gender, age & location of residence, matching INSTAT data on
the population of Albania.
To perform a comparative analysis this study has made use of
previous surveys conducted by OSFA. Survey results have a
margin of error of ± 1.6%.
The key demographic characteristics of the sample after
proportional weighting are as follows:
The sample of the phone survey, made of 250 responders,
was designed based on number of voters in 2011 local
elections in every municipality unit of Tirana. To have a
representative sample all voting centers were mashed up in
Google earth and used in combination with roads
surrounding them. A total number of 41 Primary Sample
Units were selected on the map, based on the number of
voters. Afterwards for each road selected phone numbers of
responders were randomly chosen from Tirana landline
phonebook. For each municipality unit of Tirana 18 to 24
interviews were conducted.
The questionnaire of the study consists of five sections, which
are a) Perceptions of citizens towards potential presidential
candidates, b) Preferences of citizens towards early elections,
c) Perception of citizens towards the level of democracy in
the country, d) trust in institutions and political actors, e)
Perception of people's level of welfare in the country and f)
Perceptions of citizens towards the role of EU, U.S. and OSCE.
The questionnaire contains 44 questions in total.
40%
37%
Party preferences
33%
30%
20%
8%
10%
10%
5%
4%
2%
1%
AKZ
FRD
LSI
PDIU
0%
OSFA
The online survey was conducted from 2 to 6 June 2012. The
face to face interviews in rural areas countrywide were
PSSH
PD
Refuse
to
answer
Tjeter
2
3. KEY FINDINGS
3.1. Perception on economic situation of the
country
36% of Albanian citizens expect for 2012 to bring a little or a
much worse living conditions in the country, meanwhile23%
of them expect a little or a much better living conditions.
Tirana, June 2012
69% of citizens perceive a poor or very poor economic
situation of the country and 31% feel the economy is doing
good or very good.
3.2. The new President
OSFA
www.soros.al
Asked about own family standard of living the figure is quite
different with 66% of citizens assessing their family standard
of living as good or very good and 34% of them assessing it as
poor or very poor.
77% of Albanian citizens want for the President of the
Republic to come from a career other than in political parties.
3
Tirana, June 2012
Asked about the way the President should nominated/
elected only 8% of citizens are of the opinion that no
agreement between the government and the opposition is
needed. Meanwhile 32% think that an agreement is not
obligatory but desirable and 60% are of the opinion that it is a
must to have an agreement between the government and
the opposition.
49% of responders think that the election of the President
and the electoral reform should not me interrelated. In
addition 25% of citizens think that first the President has to
be elected and afterwards the electoral reform can be
concluded.
Even though most of citizens prefer a nonpartisan candidate,
when addressed with an open ended question (top of mind)
on the name they prefer for President, the majority point out
Fatos Nano (37.9%). He is followed by Ismail Kadare (10.7%),
XhezairZaganjori (9%), JozefinaTopalli (8.3%), BamirTopi (4%)
and PandeliMajko (2.9%).
Asked about the attention political parties, media and
international players have given to the Presidential election
topic, 39% of citizens feel the topic got more attention than
needed and 23% of them think it got less attention than
needed.
www.soros.al
Position A: First the electoral reform should be concluded and
afterwards the President can be elected
Position B: First the President has to be elected and
afterwards the electoral reform can be concluded
Position C: The election of the President and the electoral
reform should not be interrelated
OSFA
To asses citizens perceptions towards potential candidates
for President, responders were asked to give grades to six
potential candidates. Same as it is done in schools of Albania,
4 standing for a failing performance and 10 standing for an
excellent performance. Based on average grade Ismail
Kadareis the best potential candidate (average grade of 7.7).
He is followed by Fatos Nano (average grade of 7.0) and
ArtanFuga (average grade of 6.5). The worst grades are given
to Topalli (average grade of 5.8), Berisha (average grade of
5.8) and Meta (average grade of 5.1).
4
10
Would prefer for him/her to be elected President instead
Average grade
Would prefer early elections instead
9
76%
8
7.3
7
7
6.5
5.8
6
5.8
40%
5.1
67%
65%
60%
35%
33%
5
24%
4
Tirana, June 2012
Kadare
Nano
Fuga
Berisha Topalli
Meta
Evaluating Ismail Kadare and Fatos Nano citizens are divided
lagging in two extreme positions. When evaluating
JozefinaTopalli, SaliBerisha and Ilir Meta a wider agreement is
reached giving them a failing grade to a large extend.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Nuk e di
10
9
Nano for
Topalli for
Berisha for
Meta for
president or
president or
president or
president or
early elections? early elections? early elections? early elections?
The second scenario tested two options, the first one being a
President named Nano, Topalli, Berisha or Meta, and the
second one being deepening of the political conflict. Same as
in the first scenario it is noticed that only having to choose
between Nano as a President and deepening of the political
conflict, citizens would prefer Nano as a President. For all
other candidate Albanians would rather prefer deepening of
the political conflict.
8
30%
7
Would prefer for him/her to be elected President instead
20%
6
Would prefer deepening of the political conflict?
10%
5
0%
4
70%
OSFA
www.soros.al
39%
63%
61%
61%
39%
37%
30%
In order to test citizens’ reactions to a possible candidacy for
President of Nano, Topalli, Berisha and Meta, responders
were tested with two scenarios. The first scenatiotested two
options, the first option being a President named Nano,
Topalli, Berisha or Meta, and the second option being early
elections. It is noticed that only having to choose between
Nano as a President and early elections citizens would prefer
Nano as a President. For all other candidates Albanians would
rather prefer to have early elections.
Nano for
president or
deepening of
the political
conflict?
Topalli for
president or
deepening of
the political
conflict?
Berisha for
president or
deepening of
the political
conflict?
Meta for
president or
deepening of
the political
conflict?
5
Tirana, June 2012
To assess citizens’ approach towards dynamics of
parliamentary party alliances responders were asked about
their opinion on a potential alliance PS+LSI to overthrow
Berisha’s government in the Parliament. 57% of citizens see
this as something bad or very bad, meanwhile 43% see this as
something good or very good.
3.3. Democracy and elections
Asked about next step, out of the 43% of citizens that would
prefer an overthrow of Berisha’s government by PS+LSI, 78%
see a future government of PS+LSI led by Edi Rama as a good
or very good thing. Meanwhile 70% of them see a future
government of PS+LSI led by Ilir Meta as a bad or very bad
thing.
A very good thing
A good thing
A bad thing
48%
www.soros.al
Asked about casting or not a ballot in early elections, 72% of
responders say they would definitely go out voting.
69% of citizens are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the
way democracy works in the country.
A very bad thing
47%
30%
25%
23%
16%
5%
6%
OSFA
After overthrowing Berisha’s After overthrowing Berisha’s
government a new
government a new
government of PS+LSI led by government of PS+LSI led by
Rama as a Prime Minister
Meta as a Prime Minister
would be…
would be…
6
Asked about confidence in elections being free and fair,
responders trend to have more confidence in 2013 elections
rather than in early elections of 2012.
Very confident
Confident
Not confident
Asked to give grades to political parties citizens list PD
(average grade of 6.4), PS (average grade of 6.4), AKZ
(average grade of 6.4), FRD (average grade of 5.9), LSI
(average grade of 5.9) and PDIU (average grade of 5.4).
Not confident at all
10
40%
34%
9
36%
8
30%
7
6.4
6.4
6
21%
16%
5.9
5.4
5.4
LSI
PDIU
5
14%
4
9%
Tirana, June 2012
6.4
PD
Are citizens confident that
Are citizens confident that
early elections would be free 2013 elections will be free and
and fair?
fair?
PS
AKZ
FRD
Political parties gettinghighest grades are PD, PS and AKZ.
100%
90%
80%
3.4. Trust in political actors
Dynamic of trust in political parties shows that compared to
May 2011there is a 7% of trust increase in political parties.
Much trust
Trust
No trust
No trust at all
Don't know
38%
www.soros.al
35% 36%
34%
50%
8
7
30%
5
20%
4
25%
10%
18%
17%
16%
0%
17%
PD
9%
PS
AKZ
FRD
LSI
PDIU
8%
7%
OSFA
9
6
28%
27%
10
60%
40%
36%
35%
Don't know
70%
3%
3%
Political
parties - Jan
2011
Political
Political
parties - Mar parties - May
2011
2011
3%
2%
Political
parties - Jun
2012
7
To asses citizens feeling about political leaders responders
were asked to provide their impression on 8 political leaders.
Results show that the most inspiring political leaders are
BamirTopi (with 47% feeling hopeful because of him),
LulzimBasha (with 45% feeling hopeful), and Fatos Nano (with
45% feeling hopeful).
Asked about the preferred candidate for Prime Minister in
2013 elections by part of the Socialist Party, 42% prefer Edi
Rama, 17% prefer PandeliMajko, 11% prefer Ben Blushi and
10% prefer Fatos Nano.
Tirana, June 2012
Gives me hope
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
47%
45%
45%
39%
38%
33%
29%
17%
The most disappointing leaders are SaliBerisha (with 30%
feeling disappointed of him), Ilir Meta (with 27% feeling
disappointed), JozefinaTopalli (with 19% feeling
disappointed) and Edi Rama (with 19% feeling disappointed).
Asked about the preferred candidate for Prime Minister in
2013 elections by part of the Democratic Party, 31% prefer
SaliBerisha, 28% prefer LulzimBasha, 9% prefer Ridvan Bode
and 7 % prefer JozefinaTopalli.
Makes me feel disappointed
35%
30%
30%
27%
www.soros.al
25%
20%
19%
19%
17%
17%
17%
15%
10%
10%
5%
OSFA
0%
8
3.5. Trust in institutions
Compared to 2011 the general Prosecutor has lost trust.
The most trusted body results to be the media, with 70%
having trust or much trust. It is followed by the President, the
Police, the Constitutional Court and the General prosecutor.
The less trusted institutions are Political Parties and Courts
other than the Constitutional Court.
Much trust
34%
Trust
34%
Don't know
Don't know
34%
34%
28%
28%
23%
23%
21%
90%
70%
No trust at
all
No trust
60%
Trust
80%
17%
14%
12%
50%
Tirana, June 2012
No trust at all
27%
26%
100%
No trust
9%
8%
9%
8%
6%
4%
40%
30%
Prosecutor
General - Jan
2011
20%
10%
Prosecutor
General - Mar
2011
Prosecutor
General - May
2011
Prosecutor
General - Jun
2012
0%
Compared to 2011 there is no significant difference in the
level of trust towards the Parliament.
Much trust
Trust
No trust
No trust at all
Don't know
37%
35%
Compared to 2011the President has gained trust.
32% 32%
29%
Much trust
Trust
No trust
No trust at all
Don't know
28%
47%
46%
28% 29%
26%
24%
23%
www.soros.al
21%
38%
10%
23%
7%
21%
10%
The Parliament Jan 2011
OSFA
The President - May
2011
6%
The Parliament May 2011
The Parliament Jun 2012
10% 10%
6%
The President - Mar
2011
6%
3%
15%
13%
10%
5%
18%
18%
16%
10%
9%
The Parliament Mar 2011
The President - Jun
2012
9
Compared to 2011trust towards the Government has slightly
deteriorated.
Much trust
Trust
No trust
No trust at all
Don't know
42%
39%
3.6. The role of international players
To asses citizens perceptions towards the role of
international players in Albania, responders were asked to
give grades to three ambassadors accredited in Albania.
Based on average grade the list is led by Arvizu (7.8) followed
by Sequi (7.7) and Wollfarth (7.2).
36%
32%
10
9
24%
23%
21%
7.8
8
21%
19%
7.7
7.2
7
17%
15%
15%
15%
Tirana, June 2012
26%
25%
13%
6
5
4%
4%
2%
4%
4
Arvizu
The Government The Government The Government The Government
- Jan 2011
- Mar 2011
- May 2011
- Jun 2012
Compared to 2011 there is no significant difference in the
level of trust towards the Courts other than the
Constitutional Court.
Sequi
Wollfarth
Arvizu gets a larger number of excellent evaluations, with
32.8% of citizens giving him a 10, while Wolfarth getsthe
larger number of failing grades with 15.8% of citizens giving
him a 4.
100%
90%
Much trust
Trust
No trust
No trust at all
Don't know
39%
35%
35%
33%
OSFA
www.soros.al
31%
31%
22%
20%
19%
9%
9%
8%
3%
3%
3%
Courts - Jan 2011
Courts - Mar 2011
Courts - Jun 2012
80%
Don't know
70%
10
60%
9
50%
8
40%
7
30%
6
20%
5
10%
4
0%
Arvizu
Sequi
Wollfarth
10
In terms of international players, the US Government is listed
fist in the level of trust, followed by the EU and OSCE.
Compared to 2011 there is no significant difference in the
level of trust towards the EU.
100%
90%
Don't know
No trust at all
No trust
Trust
Much trust
80%
70%
60%
Much trust
Trust
No trust
No trust at all
Don't know
46%
43%
50%
41%
38%
39%
39%
35%
40%
30%
30%
20%
10%
0%
13%
US Gov
EU
10%
OSCE
Tirana, June 2012
6%
Compared to 2011 there is no significant difference in the
level of trust towards the US Government.
Much trust
Trust
No trust
No trust at all
Don't know
EU - Jan 2011
5%
4%
EU - Mar 2011
6%
EU - May 2011
6% 5%
EU-Jun 2012
Compared to 2011OSCE has lost trust.
46%
44%
Much trust
37%
35%
10%
8%
8%
8%
No trust
43%
36%
36%
Trust
No trust at all
42%
39%
Don't know
38%
36%
36%
32%
28%
12%
10%
OSFA
www.soros.al
6%
8%
5%
7%
9%
5% 5%
12% 11%
7%
14%
9% 9%
12%
8%
7%
7% 7%
4%
US Government Mar 2011
US Government May 2011
US Government Jun 2012
OSCE - Jan
2011
OSCE - Mar
2011
OSCE - May
2011
OSCE - Jun
2012
11
Tirana, June 2012
59% of Albania citizens expect from international players to
be more active in Albanian political arena.
If a referenda was to take place on Sunday 90% of Albanian
citizens would vote for Albania to join the EU.
OSFA
www.soros.al
Eventhough most of citizens expect for the international
players to be more active in Albanian political arena, 65% of
citizens are totally against a President chosen/appointed by
international players.
Out of the 33% of Albanian citizens that think that
international players maybe or must be the one to choose/
appoint the President, 44% think the US Government should
be the one to lead.
12