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OVERVIEW: UNDERSTANDING COMPLEXITY
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Complexity, What is it?
Why Does it Matter?
Complex Attributes.
 Diversity
 Connectedness
 Interdependent
 Adaptation
Complexity vs. Uncertainty
Harnessing Complexity
Review and Reflection
GET SET!
 Assemble
the item in the diagram
provided in the allotted time.
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Work as a group
Designate a subject
matter expert—engineer.
 Designate and observer.
 Use the materials provided. 1 minute to prepare.
 9 minutes to construct.
 Have
Fun!
 Be Safe!
HOW WAS THIS AN EXAMPLE OF COMPLEXITY
Objective
 Team Construct
 Team Dynamics
 Relation to Other Teams
 Pressure to Succeed
 Risk of Failure
 Personal View of Games
 ETC.
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Operational Complexity
Anything that keeps us from producing exactly what we
want at the precise time we want it.
THIS IS WHAT IT SHOULD LOOK LIKE .. DOES YOURS?
CLASSIC DEFINITIONS
A complicated system assumes expert and rational leaders,
top-down planning, smooth implementation of policies, and
a clock-like organization that runs smoothly. Work is
specified and delegated to particular units.
Certainty about outcomes is in the air the organization
breathes. Complicated systems use the most sophisticated
math, technical, and engineering expertise in mapping out flow
charts to solve problems.
Complex systems are filled with hundreds of moving parts,
scores of players of varied expertise and independence yet
missing a “mission control” that runs all these different parts
within an ever-changing political, economic, and societal
environment.
The result: constant adaptations in design and action.
COMPLEXITY DEFINED
We describe something as complex when it
consists of interdependent, diverse entities, and we
assume that those entities adapt—they respond to
their local and global environments.
Attributes
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Interdependent
Diverse
Adapt
Connected
Landscape Matters
 Simple
 Rugged
 Dancing
COMPLEXITY DEFINED
They offer the opportunity to deliver robust
solutions, often from the bottom up.
 Increase the opportunity for success despite an
uncertain future.
 Better adapt to emergent conditions, particularly
when limited notice has been given.
 Allows an organization to deal with issues of
significant scope and reach.
 Often capable of delivering a lasting solution
faster, even under conditions of great duress.
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ATTRIBUTES
Attribute
Significance
Interdependent
One part links to another. Do
something in or to one part
and it will effect another.
Diverse
More than one entity, variation,
characteristic that compose
the whole and perhaps even
substantive parts.
Adapt
Influence of one part may
move another to act in like
manner. Motive unknown.
Connected
Entity is linked and in many
cases influenced by other
entities outside the entity itself.
OPTIMIZING COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Interdependency
Diversity
Adaptability
Connectedness
LANDSCAPE
RUGGED
SIMPLE
DANCING
CONSIDER TWA
1930-1970
1970s-1992
Founded 1930—Mail
Carrier, 1938 Howard
Hughes buys stock
1960s TWA invests in
ALL jet fleet
1940s-50s rapid growth
1970s cash rich TWA
Corp diversifies
1960s technological
leader, secure routes.
1980s carried 50% of all
trans Atlantic PAX,
deregulation forces hubs
1970s 3rd largest airline,
spans globe.
1992 Bankrupt
How does TWA’s fate link to their failure
to embrace complexity?
CONSIDER TWA
Attribute
Impact
Interdependent
Large investments in planes, airport facilities,
repair and maintenance, sales offices in densely
populated areas, food service, etc.
Diversity
Very little inside the company, profit heavily
dependent on foreign routes, nothing distinctive
about service as other airlines adopt new
technologies, match service options.
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Planes?
Airports?
Service?
Cities served?
PRICE?
CONSIDER diversity vertically and
horizontally.
Adapt
Worked to develop sophisticated hub/spoke
system (STL/NYC), buy more domestic capacity,
secure more financial support to expand.
Connected
Fuels prices, increased competition both
domestically and internationally under
deregulation force economizing.
HOW THEY BLEW IT
Lessons
Take your own advice, don’t believe your
own hype.
Don’t take revenge on your own past.
Accept that luck plays a part in your
success.
ENJOY your success!
Believe in the miracle of the mundane.
If you don’t understand something
others will mislead you!
One more deal won’t salvage a broken
business model.
Jamie Oliver
& Tony Goodwin
2010
LEARNING CAFE
Explore the complex nature
of post secondary education.
 Areas of interdependency
 Evidence of diversity
 Proof of adaptability
 Connectedness
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20 minutes, 5 minutes at each chart
Recorder, Reporter stays ate each chart
Prepare short summary of key points to share
Rest rotate on command
CERTAINTY VS UNCERTAINTY
Every system presents issues that offer some
amount of certainty and uncertainty. The
question is how do you know what’s true,
what deserves to be responded to or is simply
another false trail filled with the promise of
frustration or worse, false hope ?
Sometimes the answer
is as simple as it
looks. Consider the
case of how to put a
giraffe into a
refrigerator.
HARNESSING COMPLEXITY
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Consider simple answers or approaches
before looking for complicated ones.
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Think about the consequences of your
previous actions.
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Every action begets a reaction.
Use all available information.
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Just because the problem is hard doesn’t
mean the answer is.
Don’t let perfection be the enemy of good
enough.
Focus on the big picture, not just part of it.
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It’s important to distinguish the forest from
the trees.
HARNESSING TIPS
Scott Page—The Difference . . . .
“Complex systems are inherently interesting, producers of
robust solutions, but they are not clean and simple, which
makes them a lively playground for the mind.”
Issue
Considerations
Setting incentives
Typical command and control technique, links
reward to specific desired outcome.
Inject Diversity
Expands scope and reach of options and
opportunities, prevents error, enhances buy-in.
Keep eye on tails
Don’t be pushed or pulled, let momentum build
and move you forward.
Evolution vs. Revolution
Watch out for little Tendency is to reach for the stars and settle for
efficiency gains.
much less, or worse yet, seize on an easy
solution that has an adverse effect.
Sever/Build
connections
Embrace the new, be willing to release the past.
REFLECTION
Record 2-3 ideas, issues that came out of the
discussion that were most meaningful to you.
PERSONAL INVESTMENT PLAN (PIP)
Personal/Professional Investment Plan 2013-2014
Personal Object of My Desire
 Time to complete.
 Things to do.
 Why this matters to me.
How will I know I’m done; what
does success look/feel like?
 Journal
 Discussion with mentor/buddy.
 Objective assessment.
Professional Object of my
Desire
How will I know I’m done; what
does success look/feel like?
 Time to complete.
 Things to do.
 Why this matters to me.
 Journal
 Discussion with mentor/buddy.
 Objective assessment.