EMBEDDING
THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL
INTO THE REALITY
IRES – TORINO – 19/04/2010
Floriana Gargiulo
From concepts to reality…
VILLAGE
ACTIVITIES,
LAND USE,
SERVICES
AGE DISTRIBUTIO
700
600
•EUROSTAT datasets
500
400
300
•CENSUS Data at municipality level
200
40-44
30-34
20-24
0-4
0
10_14
100
90-94
80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
•Inventaire communale+ Base
permanente des èquipments
population- ABREST
populationl- BELLERIVE
HOUSEHOLDS
HH •Corine
SIZE DISTRIBUTION
land cover
1400
1200
RESIDENCES
•Enquête RP99 migration
1000
800
600
•Labour Survey
400
200
0
1
HH size - ABREST
HH size- BELLERIVE
2
2
…
3
4
5
>6
Two examples:
Initialization of demography at municipality level
The network of municipality at regional level
3
DEMOGRAPHIC INITIALIZATION of POPULATION
AGE DISTRIBUTION
HH1
700
600
500
400
300
200
HH2
90-94
80-84
70-74
population- ABREST
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
0-4
0
10_14
100
populationl- BELLERIVE
HH5
HH SIZE DISTRIBUTION
HH3
1400
1200
1000
800
HH6
600
400
HH7
200
0
1
HH size - ABREST
HH size- BELLERIVE
4
2
3
4
5
>6
HH4
CONSTRAINS:
•HH Type
•Age of Referent
•Difference of age between partners
•Difference of age between mother and
children
NO INDIVIDUAL DATA
NO DETAILS ON A SAMPLE
NO INFORMATION IN
DIFFERENT YEARS
NO POSSIBILITY TO USE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL METHODS LIK
5
ITERATIVE ALGORITHM:
STOCHASTIC EXTRACTION
+ TEST
HH SIZE DISTRIBUTION
1400
CONSTRAINS:
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1
2
HH size - ABREST
3
4
HH size- BELLERIVE
5
>6
•HH Type
•Age of Referent
•Difference of age between partners
•Difference of age between mother and children
AGE DISTRIBUTION
700
600
500
400
TEST
300
200
3
HH size
6
populationl- BELLERIVE
90-94
80-84
70-74
60-64
40-44
50-54
population- ABREST
30-34
20-24
10_14
0
0-4
100
Age of Referent
0,5
0,4
0,45
0,35
0,4
0,3
0,35
0,25
0,3
0,25
REAL DATA
0,2
0,2
ARTIFICIAL
0,15
0,15
0,1
0,1
0,05
0,05
0
0
15-24
25-29
30-49
50-59
60-74
>74
15-24
ABREST
25-29
30-49
50-59
60-74
>74
BELLERIVE SUR ALLER
Number of Children
400
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Familles sans
enfants en 1990
Familles d'un
enfant en 1990
Familles de deux Familles de trois Familles de quatre
enfants en 1990 enfants en 1990 enfants ou plus en
1990
ABREST
REAL DATA
ARTIFICIAL
Familles sans Familles d'un Familles de
enfants en enfant en 1990 deux enfants
1990
en 1990
BELLERIVE SUR ALLER
An Iterative Approach for Generating Statistically Realistic
Populations of Households
7
Floriana Gargiulo, Sônia Ternes, Sylvie Huet and Guillaume Deffuant
PLoS One. 2010; 5(1): e8828
Familles de Familles de
trois enfants quatre enfants
en 1990
ou plus en
1990
The REGIONAL level: the commuting network
8
WEIGHTED GRAPH
DIRECTED GRAPH
UNWEIGHTED GRAPH
SURVEY ON
COMMUTING
1310 municipalities
43323 directed links
WEIGHTED GRAPH
UNDIRECTED GRAPH
UNWEIGHTED GRAPH
9
DEGREE DISTRIBUTION
MUNICIPALITY WITH IN-DEGREE HIGHER THAN 100
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
10
15014 -Aurillac
43157 - Puy En Velay
63014 - Aubiere
63032 - Beaumont
63040 - Billom
63063 - Cebazat
63075 - Chamalieres
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
63103 - ChatelGuyon
63113 - Clermont Ferrand
63124 - Cournon D’auvergne
63164 - Gerzat
63178 - Issoire
63193 - Lempedes
63284 - Pont Du Chateau
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
63300 – Riom
63307 - Romagnat
63430 – Thiers
03095 - Cusset
03118 – Gannat
03185 – Montlucon
03190 - Moulan
03310 – Vichy
Definition of the reachable outside
AUBIERE
11
SAINT GERON
SAINT PAULIEN