Overview of handbook
on rapid estimates
Expert Group Meeting on Short-Term Economic Statistics
in Western Asia
16-18 February 2016
Amman, Jordan
United Nations Statistics Division
Outline of presentation
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Introduction to rapid estimates
Objectives of the handbook
Governance structure
Outline of the handbook
Status and way forward
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Introduction to rapid estimates
What is a rapid estimate?
 Rapid estimate, also called early estimate, refers to a
timely numerical evaluation (i.e. an estimate) of an
economic variable of interest, using the real-time data
flow, in such a way that an early picture of the present,
the recent past or the near future can be formed
Real-time data flow
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Is the information set available to people (official
statisticians, researchers, etc.) at a specific point in
time
Includes soft, hard, financial data
Usually provides an incomplete data coverage of the
reference period at a specific point in time
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Objectives of the handbook
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Provides international statistical guidance based on
best practices and harmonized principles for the
compilation and reporting of rapid estimates
Outlines practical and suitable compilation methods
and issues, drawing on a wide range of experience
and expertise
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Objectives of the handbook
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Assists compilers in producing rapid estimates of key
short-term macroeconomic indicators in a
comparable manner, using best international
practices
Assists countries that plan to set up a more
comprehensive system of estimates of key
macroeconomic indicators by
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Providing methodological foundations for the
compilation of rapid estimates
Offering practical guidance on individual steps and
elements of the compilation process
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Governance structure
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Working group was established to prepare handbook
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Eurostat (lead agency)
United Nations Statistics Division
Statistics Netherlands
National statistics offices of Mexico, Singapore and South
Africa
Various experts have contributed to the preparation of the
draft chapters
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Outline of the handbook
Seven parts comprising 18 chapters
Annex (Glossary)
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Outline of the handbook
Part I: Generalities
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Chapter 1: Introduction: objectives, definitions, costs
and benefits of rapid estimates
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Discusses the importance of timely economic information
and the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy
Identifies the advantages and drawbacks of rapid
estimates
Chapter 2: Rapid estimates: different products for
different purposes
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Provides a less formal description of some of the most
commonly used rapid estimates by synthetically sketching
their main features
Provides a rationale to the disambiguation of a variety of
rapid estimates, based on the identification of key
elements which should be taken into account when
characterizing them
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Outline of the handbook
Part I: Generalities
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Chapter 3: Forecasting and nowcasting macroeconomic
variables: a methodological overview
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Presents a technical discussion of the techniques in
forecasting and nowcasting
Chapter 4: The trade-off between timeliness and
reliability: the perspective of a statistical agency
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Presents in detail the trade-off between timeliness and
accuracy
Discusses how a statistical agency acquires information and
the resultant accuracy of the estimates
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Outline of the handbook
Part II: Statistical and econometric techniques for
rapid estimates
 Chapter 5: An overview of modelling techniques for rapid
estimates
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Provides non-technical overview of statistical and
econometric techniques to construct rapid estimates
Discusses advantages and drawbacks of the techniques
Chapter 6: A review of parametric and non parametric
techniques for variable selection
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Reviews several econometric and statistical methods to
handle variable selection, mainly in the context of multiple
regression
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Outline of the handbook
Part II: Statistical and econometric techniques for
rapid estimates
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Chapter 7: Model selection, model specifications and a
typology of rapid estimates
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Presents the statistical and econometric models that are
more suitable to producing a given type of rapid estimate
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Outline of the handbook
Part III: Rapid estimates based on data available
at different frequencies
 Chapter 8: Multivariate temporal disaggregation
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Reviews the methods of multivariate temporal
disaggregation in the literature and evaluates their
potential both from the theoretical and empirical
standpoints
Chapter 9: A survey of econometric methods for mixedfrequency data
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Reviews the methods in the literature to deal with mixed
frequency data and missing values due to publication lags
Summarizes most significant empirical applications
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Outline of the handbook
Part IV: Rapid estimates based on factor models
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Chapter 10: Dynamic factor models: A review of the
literature
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Presents the models and their most interesting
extensions, main estimation methods, and tests of the
number of factors
Presents examples of the application of dynamic factor
models to macroeconomic forecasting, the construction of
short-term economic indicators and the analysis of
monetary policy and the international economy
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Outline of the handbook
Part IV: Rapid estimates based on factor models
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Chapter 11: Forecasting with rich data: Model
comparison and evidence from European countries
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Discusses the theory and practice of alternative
macroeconomic forecasting models that utilize large
datasets
Compares the models in a forecasting on a set of
European countries
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Outline of the handbook
Part V: Rapid estimates based on combining
forecasting techniques
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Chapter 12: Combined forecasting methods and rapid
estimates
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Provides an overview of the literature on forecast pooling
Evaluates the empirical performance of a set of alternative
forecast combination methods for the principal European
economic indicators (PEEIs)
Chapter 13: Combined forecasting techniques
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Provides an overview of the "combined forecast" theory
Examines the practice of combined real time forecast using
quarterly GDP growth rate and industrial production index
growth rate
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Outline of the handbook
Part V: Rapid estimates based on combining
forecasting techniques
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Chapter 14: Density estimates of combined forecasting
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Describes how various techniques can be used to combine
competing density forecasts to obtain a single density
forecast
Evaluates the performance of combination forecasts in a
pseudo real time forecast exercise for five PEEIs
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Outline of the handbook
Part VI: Aggregate versus disaggregate approaches
to construct rapid estimates
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Chapter 15: Aggregate versus disaggregate
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Discusses the construction of rapid estimates for aggregate
variables using direct/aggregate and indirect/disaggregate
modelling approaches
Undertakes simulations, using real-time vintage data, to
investigate the empirical performance of the aggregate and
disaggregate approaches when nowcasting Euro Area GDP
growth
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Outline of the handbook
Part VI: Aggregate versus disaggregate approaches
to construct rapid estimates
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Chapter 16: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP growth using
multivariate models
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Presents a unified multivariate model to produce nowcasts of
an aggregate variable which nests aggregate and
disaggregate modelling approaches
Considers approximations to the, in general, infeasible
multivariate model
Undertakes a detailed set of out-of-sample simulations, using
real-time vintage data, to investigate the empirical
performance of the mixed approach when nowcasting Euro
area GDP growth
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Outline of the handbook
Part VII: Constructing and evaluating rapid estimates
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Chapter 17: Quality assessment of rapid estimates
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Describes how to conduct a standard assessment of the
quality of rapid estimates, including deciding when to publish
them and how to monitor revisions to the estimates
Chapter 18: Constructing and evaluating rapid estimates:
some examples
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Presents some empirical examples on how to construct and
evaluate the quality of rapid estimates
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Outline of the handbook
Annex
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Glossary of rapid estimates
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Was prepared by Eurostat
Contains definitions of common terms in the literature based
on a transparent and easily understandable framework
Aims to avoid misunderstanding and communication
problems due to a lack of common vocabulary and
terminologies when talking about rapid estimates
Was developed by Eurostat
Is available on http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticsexplained/index.php/Category:Rapid_estimates_glossary
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Status and way forward
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Expert group is currently reviewing draft handbook
Draft handbook which will incorporate the comments
from the expert group review is expected to be circulated
for global consultation by summer 2016
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Thank you
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