INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS POLICY AND ECONOMICS Vol. 4, No. 2, (2011) : 241-276 AN EMPIRICAL TESTING OF CARHART MODEL IN INDIAN STOCK MARKET* Santosh Kumar Lecturer, Finance and Accounts Department, Amity Business School, Amity University, Noida Tavishi Lecturer, Department of Economics, Mity Business School, Amity University, Noida Indian capital market has changed drastically in the past one decade. The ability to predict the stock price movements based on a given set of information helps investors and fund managers to frame suitable strategies for investment. CAPM, Fama-French, Arbitrage, Carhart, are among the various models which are used in investment decision making. This study examines the validity of Carhart Model in Indian Stock market using the daily data on stock price, size, B/P, and the market index S&P CNX 500 for the period ranging from 2009 to 2010 and documents its pricing ability. Results indicate that the momentum factor WML (winner minus loser) is not significant in Indian stock market while the factors like SML (Small Minus Big), RM (Return of Market) and HML (High Minus Low) reflects higher reliability and explanation capacity in the pricing of stocks. It is also found that the size effect (SMB) is significant in almost all portfolios except in the larger companies and the higher returns of the portfolio are attributed to either medium or high Book value by Market value (B/P) and small size. It implies that investors can rely on size, B/P and market index rather than ex post performance. Keywords: SMB, HML, WML, Carhart Model. 1. INTRODUCTION India is considered as one of the fastest emerging markets in the world and these changes in the economy are directly reflected in capital market. Indian capital market has changed rather drastically in the last few years. A capital market in which stock prices fully reflect all available information can be termed as efficient. The ability to predict stock price changes based on a given set of information is behind the notion of stock market efficiency. Momentum investment Strategy is based on efficient market hypothesis. It suggests that “today’s winners will be tomorrow’s winners and today’s losers will be tomorrow’s losers” and hence the investment strategy based on buying today’s winners and selling today’s losers will generate superior returns. However, Contrarian investments strategy claims that “Today’s losers are tomorrow’s winners and today’s winners are tomorrow’s losers’ and thus the investment strategy based This paper is presented and discussed in a National Finance Conference LBS, New Delhi. 242 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi on buying today’s losers and selling today’s winners should generate superior returns. This strategy is based on the idea that market is inefficient. It is also known as overreaction hypothesis. Studies have shown sufficient evidence of both overreaction and momentum hypotheses. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) oversimplifies the complex market scenario by using a single factor market, to compare the excess returns of a portfolio with the excess returns of the market as a whole. Fama and French in 1992 have extended the model to three factors viz. Market Return (Rm), Small minus Big (SMB) and Highest minus Lowest (HML) and have observed that stocks which are either small caps or higher Book Value to Market Price ratio have relatively performed well. This model captures most market deviations except the momentum effect. Carhart model in 1997 have augmented the Fama and French three-factor model with a momentum factor Winners minus losers (WML) constructed by the monthly return difference between the returns on the high and low prior return portfolios, to capture the cross-sectional return patterns. 2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE The Overreaction Hypothesis asserts that stocks which have underperformed the market over a period of time will outperform the market over a subsequent and similar time period. Till now many researchers have shown interest in the functioning of overreaction hypothesis. De Bondt and Thaler (1985) reveal, using monthly return data for New York Stock exchange common stocks from January 1926 and December 1982, loser’s portfolio outperforms the market by 19.26 per cent. They discover that overreaction hypothesis is asymmetric; it is much larger for the losers than for winners. De Bondt and Thaler (1990) further studies rationality of earnings forecasts, using analyst’s earning forecasts of New York stock exchange between 1976 and 1984 and concludes that there exsists a strong evidence of overreaction in the predictions of graduates as well as stock market professionals by applying regression analysis. Paul, (1990) investigates that tendency for losers to outperform winners is not attributed to investor overreaction, but to the tendency for the losers to be smaller sized firms than winners. They identify that when losers are compared with winners of equal size, there is little evidence of any return discrepancy, and in period when winners are smaller than losers, winners outperform losers. Lawrence and Hao (1992) test the overreaction hypothesis using monthly data for stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange over the 1950-1988 period and find significant continuation behavior for the next one (and two) year(s) for winners and losers, and insignificant reversal behavior for winners and losers over longer formation/test periods of up to ten years. Page & Way (1992), study overreaction hypothesis on Johannesburg Stock exchange using data from July 1974 to June 1989 for 204 relatively well traded securities. They observe that portfolios of prior losers significantly outperform portfolio of prior winners by 10-20per cent .Clare and Thomas (1995), analyzes overreaction hypothesis for the UK stock market using data from 1955 to 1990 drawn from a random sample of 1000 companies. They find that losers outperform previous winners over a An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market 243 two year period by a statistically significant 1.7per cent per annum. On further investigation they locate that such overreaction may in fact be a manifestation of the small firm effect. Aiyagari and Gertler (1997) study the overreaction of asset prices to movements in short term interest rates, dividends, and asset supplies with the help of a dynamic general equilibrium model of asset pricing. They analyze that it is possible to have substantial departures of the market price from the corresponding price under frictionless markets. Karan et.al. (2003), test overreaction for the Istanbul Stock Exchange using price limits in two sub-periods when the daily price limit is 10per cent and 20 per cent respectively. They observe overreaction mainly in the second sub-period when the daily limit is higher and changes in the trading volume that accompany overreaction in prices. Up-limit hits are accompanied by increases in trading volume while consecutive price falls are accompanied by decreasing trading volumes. Antoniou et.al. (2005) investigate the existence of contrarian profits and their sources for the Athenes Stock Exchange. Results indicate that contrarian strategies produce statistically and economically significant profits even after risk and market frictions are taken into considerations. Ali et.al. (2009) investigate overreaction in the Malaysian stock market taking data for the period from January 1987 to December 2006. They establish that loser has insignificantly become loser and winner has significantly reversed in the subsequent period. Du and Denning (2009) examine US and international stock price reaction to common market-wide information over the period 1941-2006 and 1975-2006 respectively. They come across evidence of both under and over-reaction but it is not systematic and further concludes that although investors might make mistakes, they do not do so consistently. Rastogi and et.al. (2009) study momentum and overreaction hypothesis in the Indian equity markets by taking the adjusted monthly prices data for all NSE listed stocks for the period of 1996 to 2008 from the CMIE prowess database. S&P CNX 500 index is used as a proxy for the market return. They find out strong substantiation for the presence of momentum in all the categories, but weak evidence for the presence of overreaction in the low and high cap stocks. The mid cap stocks demonstrate strong overreaction. Thus in Indian Context there is dearth of literature regarding overreaction hypothesis. This paper tries to bridge the above gap. The objectives of the study is to test the impact of loser and winner portfolio in the next period on the portfolio’s return and to test the importance of size, P/B of the firm in their pricing . 3. DATA & METHODOLOGY Data: The closing prices of different stocks for a period 2009 and 2010 is taken from www.nseindia.com historical data. Market returns of S&P CNX 500 of the same period is taken from prowess database. Portfolio construction: The three benchmark factors, i.e., HML, SMB, and WML, from the 27 (3*3*3) three-way independently sorted size, book to market, and momentum portfolios at each point in time t are calculated through the following equations: This 3 way sorted benchmark factor portfolios, i.e. HML, SMB, WML are created from the formulae given by Liew and Vassalon (2000). 244 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi HML = 1/9 ((S1M1B3-S1M1B1) + (S1M2B3-S1M2B1)+ (S1M3B3-S1M3B1)+ (S2M1B3-S2M1B1) + (S2M2B3-S2M2B1) + (S2M3B3-S2M3B1) + (1) (S3M1B3-S3M1B1) + (S3M2B3-S3M2B1) + (S3M3B3-S3M3B1)) SMB = 1/9 ((S1M1B1-S3M1B1) + (S1M2B1-S3M2B1) + (S1M3B1-S3M3B)+ (S1M1B2-S3M1B2) + (S1M2B2-S3M2B2) + (S1M3B2-S3M3B2) + (2) (S1M1B3-S3M1B3) + (S1M2B3-S3M2B3) + (S1M3B3-S3M3B3)) WML = 1/9 ((S1M3B1-S1M1B1) + (S1M3B2-S1M1B2) + (S1M3B3-S1M1B3) S1M1B3) + (S2M3B1-S2M1B1) + (S2M3 B2-S2M1B2) + (S2M3B3(3) S2M1B3) + (S3M3 B1S3M1B1) + (S3M3 B2-S3M1B2) + (S3M3B3-S3M1B3)) In order to limit the number of test assets, the firms are assigned 27 (3*3*3) portfolios based on the break points for the bottom 30 per cent , middle 40 per cent and top 30 per cent of the ranked values where the first two characters of the portfolio name indicate the size category the portfolio belongs to, the second two characters indicate the momentum category, and the last two characters the book value to market price category, with size, momentum and book to market increasing from one to three. The Table 1 presents the unique code of 27 portfolios and consequent features. Table 1 Portfolio Construction and Description Portfolio Code 41 42 43 46 47 48 51 52 53 61 62 63 66 67 68 71 72 73 81 82 83 86 87 88 91 92 93 Market Capitalization Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Small Medium Large Small Medium Large BE/ME High High High Medium Medium Medium Low Low Low High High High Medium Medium Medium Low Low Low High High High Medium Medium Medium Low Low Low Cumulative Return Symbol Loser Loser Loser Loser Loser Loser Loser Loser Loser Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Winner Winner Winner Winner Winner Winner Winner Winner Winner S1B3M1 S2B3M1 S3B3M1 S1B2M1 S2B2M1 S3B2M1 S1B1M1 S2B1M1 S3B1M1 S1B3M2 S2B3M2 S3B3M2 S1B2M2 S2B2M2 S3B2M2 S1B1M2 S2B1M2 S3B1M2 S1B3M3 S2B3M3 S3B3M3 S1B2M3 S2B2M3 S3B2M3 S1B1M3 S2B1M3 S3B1M3 The Table 1 presents the unique code of 27 portfolios and consequent features. An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market 245 The four factor model suggested by the prior macroeconomic asset pricing literature is used in the analysis, which is as follows: Rit = α1 + β1 (Rmt) + β2 (SMBit) + β3 (HMLit) + β4 (WMLit ) +ε (4) Where SMBit is the return on a zero investment portfolio long on large and short on small market capitalization stocks. SMB is meant to mimic the risk factor and returns related to size and SMB is largely clear of B/P effect, focused on the different behavior of small and big stocks. HMLit is the return on a zero investment portfolio long on high and short on low value book to market ratio stocks. It is meant to mimic the risk factor in returns related to values (Book/ Market Price). It is relatively free of size effect. WMLit is the return on a zero investment portfolio long on loser and short on winner stocks. The entire four factor model is tested with the help of SAS programming in following major steps: First the returns of stock price data is calculated , followed by computation of cumulative return for each stock. Then the return is converted in to 30, 70 and 100 percentile and unique code is assigned to market’s return, P/B, size and cumulative return of stock which is later added.then Segregation into different portfolios on the basis of unique code and transposition into column format with column variables as 27 portfolios and portfolio return and market return takes place Atlast after computing SMB and HML and WML, all 27 portfolios are regressed to test the significance of coefficients of different factors. 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1. Pricing Ability of the Carhart Model The results presented in Table 2 indicate that in almost all 27 portfolios’ (3*3*3) market return and size is significant in 100 per cent and 77 per cent of the cases respectively and P/B is also significant in 75 per cent of the sampled portfolios. The momentum (WML) factor is not significant in Indian scenario. In all the 27 portfolios the Fama French model reflects higher reliability and explanation capacity of the price of the firm. Thus the fourth factor (Winner minus Looser i.e. momentum factor) is not significant in Indian stock market. The market return estimate is significant in 100% sampled portfolios indicating the reliability of fundamental CAPM model. Thus the movement of benchmark or market has a deciding role in the portfolio return. The size effect (Table 2) is pronounced in almost all portfolios except in the larger companies. Thus the results exhibit consistency with the previous work that the small size of the company leads to better return even more than 200 per cent in few cases. The higher return of the portfolio (Table 2 and Table 3) is evident in the cases of medium or high values of B/P. Thus the Three Factor Model represents that the price of the stock can be well explained in the range of 60 to 80per cent with the help of market return, size effect and B/P values. It is attributed to higher significant in almost all portfolios except 3 or 4. Further it is also observed that higher return of portfolio is mainly in higher B/P values. Out of the 27 portfolios, 14 have insignificant value of WML indicating that the overreaction is not justified in majority of portfolios. Thus it is evident that WML is not a key attribute or factor in Carhart model. 246 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi Table 2 Regression Coefficients of 27 Portfolios in Carhart Model Four Factors of Carhart Model Portfolio Code Portfolio Symbol Rm HML SMB 41 S1B3M1 0.90* 1.16574* 1.03303* -0.73442* 42 S2B3M1 0.83* 0.47527* 0.85369* -0.22211 43 S3B3M1 0.96* 0.77128* -0.34916* 46 S1B2M1 0.83* 0.9697* 0.41665* -0.30609* 47 S2B2M1 0.93* 0.47702* 0.3749* -0.22103* 48 S3B2M1 0.86* 0.16309* 51 S1B1M1 1.16* 0.98812* 52 S2B1M1 0.83* 53 S3B1M1 0.94* 61 S1B3M2 62 -0.01134 0.18102 WML -0.60796* -0.4161* -1.93312* 0.48828* -0.1633 -0.85962* 0.06606 -0.13674* -0.19695* 0.96* 1.10809* 0.82086* -0.15828 S2B3M2 0.86* 0.57322* 0.58626* -0.00055406 63 S3B3M2 1.05* 0.03955 1.09681* -0.1758 66 S1B2M2 0.80* 1.02311* 0.69837* -0.22935 67 S2B2M2 0.95* 0.54834* 0.25765* -0.18577 68 S3B2M2 1.08* 0.07729 0.40804* -0.25261* 71 S1B1M2 1.16* 0.97052* -0.86022* -0.3907 72 S2B1M2 0.90* 0.54916* 0.10532 -0.173 73 S3B1M2 0.93* 0.2021* -0.07421 0.05858 81 S1B3M3 1.03* 1.12354* 0.72398* 0.05523 82 S2B3M3 0.94* 0.63582* 0.81524* 0.27306* 83 S3B3M3 1.01* -0.16796* 0.49548* 0.10097 86 S1B2M3 0.84* 0.90682* 0.61022* 0.59184* 87 S2B2M3 1.01* 0.55691* 0.35082* 0.00233 88 S3B2M3 0.80* 0.04909 0.17677* 0.26235* 91 S1B1M3 1.06* 1.24116* -0.13836 1.95827* 92 S2B1M3 0.72* 0.35762* -0.08969 0.31153* 93 S3B1M3 0.83* 0.07893 -0.03004 0.01395 Significant at 5% level of significance. Almost all 27 portfolios’ (3*3*3) market return and size is significant in 100 per cent and 77 per cent of the cases respectively and P/B is also significant in 75 per cent of the sampled portfolios. The size effect is pronounced in almost all portfolios except in the larger companies. It is evident from the above results (Table 2 and Table 3) that the portfolios which gave good returns consists majority of those companies which have low to medium book to market ratio and are small to medium in size. These portfolios consist of losers, showing that losers outperform in future and gives high returns. On the other hand the portfolios which gave low returns, majority of them consists of mediocre to winner companies, medium to large size and medium to high book to market ratio. This shows that winners of the past underperform in the future. This analysis again supports contrarian hypothesis for the Indian 247 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market Table 3 Annualized Return of 27 Portfolios Portfolio Code Portfolio Annual Return (%) 41 S1B3M1 37.2 42 S2B3M1 64.4 43 S3B3M1 13.2 46 S1B2M1 60.7 47 S2B2M1 229.3 48 S3B2M1 87.5 51 S1B1M1 99.3 52 S2B1M1 204.0 53 S3B1M1 475.3 61 S1B3M2 74.5 62 S2B3M2 48.2 63 S3B3M2 20.0 66 S1B2M2 90.1 67 S2B2M2 186.9 68 S3B2M2 21.8 71 S1B1M2 29.1 72 S2B1M2 98.3 73 S3B1M2 37.2 81 S1B3M3 33.1 82 S2B3M3 32.4 83 S3B3M3 13.7 86 S1B2M3 38.4 87 S2B2M3 89.7 88 S3B2M3 25.8 91 S1B1M3 41.7 92 S2B1M3 75.2 93 S3B1M3 59.8 Out of the 27 portfolios, 14 have insignificant value of WML indicating that the overreaction is not justified in majority of portfolios. stock market. The sign of coefficients has a significant role in these equations. As in the equations coefficient of SMB and HML are positive (Table 2) in majority of the portfolios thus showing that these have a direct effect on the portfolio’s returns. But however coefficient of WML has a negative (Table 2) sign in majority of the equations showing inverse relationship but insignificant in majority of the cases. 5. CONCLUSIONS From the above analysis the work concludes that size factor, book to market ratio and return of market play a significant role in determining portfolio’s returns; however it was seen that momentum effect is not evident for the Indian stock market. Further it is also observed that the past losers were seen to perform 248 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi well in future by giving higher returns while the past winners were underperforming and were giving very low rate of returns. Therefore contrarian profits do seem to exist in the Indian Stock market and therefore contrarian investments strategy would be the most suitable investment strategy. 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Paul, Zarowin (1990), Size, Seasonality and Stock Market Overreaction, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, March. 249 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market APPENDIX Table A1 Detailed Description of 27 Portfolios (SAS Output) (1) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: _41 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 Error 245 0.06418 0.01604 250.96 <.0001 0.01566 0.00006393 249 0.07984 Root MSE 0.00800 R-Square 0.8038 Dependent Mean 0.00155 Adj R-Sq 0.8006 Source Corrected Total Coeff Var 514.34163 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00138 0.00054522 2.54 0.0117 mktreturns 1 0.90270 0.05470 16.50 <.0001 hml 1 1.03303 0.10510 9.83 <.0001 smb 1 1.16574 0.06719 17.35 <.0001 wml 1 -0.73442 0.14466 -5.08 <.0001 Value Pr > |t| 250 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (2) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL2 Dependent Variable: _42 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.04786 Source Root MSE Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.03744 0.00936 219.96 <.0001 0.01043 0.00004255 0.00652 R-Square 0.7822 Dependent Mean 0.00043894 Adj R-Sq 0.7786 Coeff Var 1486.14409 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Variable DF Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 0.00047311 0.00044482 1.06 0.2886 mktreturns 1 0.83203 0.04463 18.64 <.0001 hml 1 0.85369 0.08574 9.96 <.0001 smb 1 0.47527 0.05482 8.67 <.0001 wml 1 -0.22211 0.11802 -1.88 0.0610 251 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (3) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL3 Dependent Variable: _43 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance Source Sum of Squares DF Mean Square Model 4 0.04062 0.01015 Error 245 0.01166 0.00004758 249 0.05228 Corrected Total Root MSE F Value Pr > F 213.42 <.0001 0.00690 R-Square 0.7770 Dependent Mean 0.00039462 Adj R-Sq 0.7734 Coeff Var 1747.99316 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Variable DF Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 0.00017084 0.00047037 0.36 0.7168 mktreturns 1 0.96467 0.04719 20.44 <.0001 hml 1 0.77128 0.09067 8.51 <.0001 smb 1 -0.01134 0.05796 -0.20 0.8451 wml 1 -0.34916 0.12480 -2.80 0.0056 252 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (4) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL4 Dependent Variable: _46 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 0.04069 0.01017 218.75 <.0001 Error 245 0.01139 0.00004651 Corrected Total 249 0.05209 Root MSE 0.00682 R-Square 0.7813 Dependent Mean 0.00206 Adj R-Sq 0.7777 Coeff Var 330.85490 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00131 0.00046504 2.82 0.0052 mktreturns 1 0.83929 0.04665 17.99 <.0001 hml 1 0.41665 0.08964 4.65 <.0001 smb 1 0.96970 0.05731 16.92 <.0001 wml 1 -0.30609 0.12338 -2.48 0.0138 Value Pr > |t| 253 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (5) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL5 Dependent Variable: _47 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 0.03394 0.00848 219.59 <.0001 Error 245 0.00947 0.00003864 Corrected Total 249 0.04340 Root MSE 0.00622 R-Square 0.7819 Dependent Mean 0.00199 Adj R-Sq 0.7783 Coeff Var 312.29606 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Variable DF Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 0.00120 0.00042386 2.83 0.0051 mktreturns 1 0.93210 0.04252 21.92 <.0001 hml 1 0.37490 0.08170 4.59 <.0001 smb 1 0.47702 0.05223 9.13 <.0001 wml 1 -0.22103 0.11246 -1.97 0.0505 254 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (6) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL6 Dependent Variable: _48 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.03889 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.02478 0.00620 107.58 <.0001 0.01411 0.00005759 Root MSE 0.00759 R-Square 0.6372 Dependent Mean 0.00273 Adj R-Sq 0.6313 Coeff Var 278.27134 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00160 0.00051748 3.10 0.0022 mktreturns 1 0.86183 0.05192 16.60 <.0001 hml 1 0.18102 0.09975 1.81 0.0708 smb 1 0.16309 0.06377 2.56 0.0111 wml 1 -0.60796 0.13730 -4.43 <.0001 Value Pr > |t| 255 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (7) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL7 Dependent Variable: _51 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.09385 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.06454 0.01613 134.87 <.0001 0.02931 0.00011963 Root MSE 0.01094 R-Square 0.6877 Dependent Mean 0.00276 Adj R-Sq 0.6826 Coeff Var 396.34670 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Variable DF Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -0.00042050 0.00074585 -0.56 0.5734 mktreturns 1 1.16225 0.07483 15.53 <.0001 hml 1 -0.41612 0.14377 -2.89 0.0041 smb 1 0.98812 0.09191 10.75 <.0001 wml 1 -1.93312 0.19789 -9.77 <.0001 256 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (8) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL8 Dependent Variable: _52 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.04397 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.02543 0.00636 84.05 <.0001 0.01853 0.00007565 Root MSE 0.00870 R-Square 0.5785 Dependent Mean 0.00303 Adj R-Sq 0.5716 Coeff Var 286.89785 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00124 0.00059309 2.10 0.0369 mktreturns 1 0.83919 0.05950 14.10 <.0001 hml 1 -0.16330 0.11432 -1.43 0.1544 smb 1 0.48828 0.07309 6.68 <.0001 wml 1 -0.85962 0.15736 -5.46 <.0001 Value Pr > |t| 257 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (9) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL9 Dependent Variable: _53 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.02803 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.02367 0.00592 332.73 <.0001 0.00436 0.00001779 Root MSE 0.00422 R-Square 0.8445 Dependent Mean 0.00273 Adj R-Sq 0.8420 Coeff Var 154.74690 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00125 mktreturns 1 0.94718 hml 1 smb wml Value Pr > |t| 0.00028759 4.35 <.0001 0.02885 32.83 <.0001 -0.13674 0.05544 -2.47 0.0143 1 0.06606 0.03544 1.86 0.0635 1 -0.19695 0.07630 -2.58 0.0104 258 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (10) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL10 Dependent Variable: _61 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 249 0.06650 Source Corrected Total Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.05988 0.01497 554.43 <.0001 0.00662 0.00002700 Root MSE 0.00520 R-Square 0.9005 Dependent Mean 0.00101 Adj R-Sq 0.8989 Coeff Var 512.40033 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Variable DF Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 0.00074807 0.00035435 2.11 0.0358 mktreturns 1 0.96878 0.03555 27.25 <.0001 hml 1 0.82086 0.06830 12.02 <.0001 smb 1 1.10809 0.04367 25.38 <.0001 wml 1 -0.15828 0.09402 -1.68 0.0935 259 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (11) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL11 Dependent Variable: _62 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 0.03537 0.00884 170.68 <.0001 Error 245 0.01269 0.00005181 Corrected Total 249 0.04806 Root MSE 0.00720 R-Square 0.7359 Dependent Mean 0.00184 Adj R-Sq 0.7316 Coeff Var 391.47079 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00153 0.00049083 3.11 0.0021 mktreturns 1 0.86897 0.04924 17.65 <.0001 hml 1 0.58626 0.09461 6.20 <.0001 smb 1 0.57322 0.06049 9.48 <.0001 wml 1 -0.00055406 0.13023 -0.00 0.9966 Value Pr > |t| 260 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (12) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL12 Dependent Variable: _63 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.07453 Source Root MSE Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.05534 0.01384 176.67 <.0001 0.01919 0.00007832 0.00885 R-Square 0.7426 Dependent Mean 0.00064888 Adj R-Sq 0.7384 Coeff Var 1363.81956 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Variable DF Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 0.00087308 0.00060346 1.45 0.1492 mktreturns 1 1.05165 0.06054 17.37 <.0001 hml 1 1.09681 0.11632 9.43 <.0001 smb 1 0.03955 0.07437 0.53 0.5953 wml 1 -0.17580 0.16011 -1.10 0.2733 261 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (13) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL13 Dependent Variable: _66 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.06590 Root MSE 0.00926 R-Square 0.6811 Dependent Mean 0.00256 Adj R-Sq 0.6758 Source Coeff Var Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.04488 0.01122 130.79 <.0001 0.02102 0.00008579 361.97208 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t 1 0.00229 0.00063160 3.63 0.0003 1 0.80723 0.06336 12.74 <.0001 hml 1 0.69837 0.12175 5.74 <.0001 smb 1 1.02311 0.07783 13.14 <.0001 wml 1 -0.22935 0.16758 -1.37 0.1724 Variable DF Intercept mktreturns Value Pr > |t| 262 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (14) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL14 Dependent Variable: _67 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.04207 Root MSE 0.00561 R-Square 0.8166 Dependent Mean 0.00235 Adj R-Sq 0.8136 Source Coeff Var Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.03436 0.00859 272.75 <.0001 0.00772 0.00003149 238.78716 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00137 0.00038266 3.57 0.0004 mktreturns 1 0.95152 0.03839 24.79 <.0001 hml 1 0.25765 0.07376 3.49 0.0006 smb 1 0.54834 0.04716 11.63 <.0001 wml 1 -0.18577 0.10153 -1.83 0.0685 Value Pr > |t| 263 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (15) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL15 Dependent Variable: _68 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.04876 Source Root MSE Dependent Mean Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.04043 0.01011 297.39 <.0001 0.00833 0.00003399 0.00583 R-Square 0.8292 0.00084494 Adj R-Sq 0.8264 Coeff Var 690.01481 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t 1 -0.00003229 0.00039756 -0.08 0.9353 1 1.08840 0.03988 27.29 <.0001 hml 1 0.40804 0.07664 5.32 <.0001 smb 1 0.07729 0.04899 1.58 0.1160 wml 1 -0.25261 0.10548 -2.39 0.0174 Variable DF Intercept mktreturns Value Pr > |t| 264 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (16) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL16 Dependent Variable: _71 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.09744 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.05061 0.01265 66.18 <.0001 0.04684 0.00019117 Root MSE 0.01383 R-Square 0.5193 Dependent Mean 0.00170 Adj R-Sq 0.5115 Coeff Var 815.04650 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 -0.00137 0.00094284 -1.46 0.1468 mktreturns 1 1.16780 0.09459 12.35 <.0001 hml 1 -0.86022 0.18174 -4.73 <.0001 smb 1 0.97052 0.11619 8.35 <.0001 wml 1 -0.39070 0.25015 -1.56 0.1196 Value Pr > |t| 265 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (17) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL17 Dependent Variable: _72 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.03892 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.02952 0.00738 192.35 <.0001 0.00940 0.00003837 Root MSE 0.00619 R-Square 0.7585 Dependent Mean 0.00309 Adj R-Sq 0.7545 Coeff Var 200.68211 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00195 mktreturns 1 0.90055 hml 1 smb wml Value Pr > |t| 0.00042239 4.61 <.0001 0.04238 21.25 <.0001 0.10532 0.08142 1.29 0.1971 1 0.54916 0.05205 10.55 <.0001 1 -0.17300 0.11207 -1.54 0.1240 266 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (18) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL18 Dependent Variable: _73 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.03096 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.02443 0.00611 229.17 <.0001 0.00653 0.00002665 Root MSE 0.00516 R-Square 0.7891 Dependent Mean 0.00207 Adj R-Sq 0.7857 Coeff Var 249.11370 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t 1 0.00080794 0.00035201 2.30 0.0226 1 0.93440 0.03531 26.46 <.0001 hml 1 -0.07421 0.06785 -1.09 0.2752 smb 1 0.20210 0.04338 4.66 <.0001 wml 1 0.05858 0.09340 0.63 0.5311 Variable DF Intercept mktreturns Value Pr > |t| 267 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (19) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL19 Dependent Variable: _81 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.07189 Source Root MSE Dependent Mean Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.06232 0.01558 398.63 <.0001 0.00958 0.00003908 0.00625 R-Square 0.8668 0.00099021 Adj R-Sq 0.8646 Coeff Var 631.33969 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Variable DF Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 0.00060957 0.00042630 1.43 0.1540 mktreturns 1 1.03041 0.04277 24.09 <.0001 hml 1 0.72398 0.08217 8.81 <.0001 smb 1 1.12354 0.05253 21.39 <.0001 wml 1 0.05523 0.11311 0.49 0.6258 268 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (20) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL20 Dependent Variable: _82 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.05829 Root MSE 0.00713 R-Square 0.7863 Dependent Mean 0.00102 Adj R-Sq Source Coeff Var Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.04584 0.01146 225.42 <.0001 0.01245 0.00005083 0.7829 699.19716 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00108 0.00048619 2.22 0.0273 mktreturns 1 0.94160 0.04878 19.30 <.0001 hml 1 0.81524 0.09372 8.70 <.0001 smb 1 0.63582 0.05991 10.61 <.0001 wml 1 0.27306 0.12900 2.12 0.0353 Value Pr > |t| 269 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (21) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL21 Dependent Variable: _83 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.04917 Source Root MSE Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.03773 0.00943 202.03 <.0001 0.01144 0.00004669 0.00683 R-Square 0.7674 Dependent Mean 0.00040224 Adj R-Sq 0.7636 Coeff Var 1698.82601 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Variable DF Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 -0.00004046 0.00046597 -0.09 0.9309 mktreturns 1 1.01879 0.04675 21.79 <.0001 hml 1 0.49548 0.08982 5.52 <.0001 smb 1 -0.16796 0.05742 -2.93 0.0038 wml 1 0.10097 0.12363 0.82 0.4149 270 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (22) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL22 Dependent Variable: _86 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.05766 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.04016 0.01004 140.53 <.0001 0.01750 0.00007144 Root MSE 0.00845 R-Square 0.6964 Dependent Mean 0.00122 Adj R-Sq 0.6915 Coeff Var 694.92978 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00126 0.00057636 2.18 0.0304 mktreturns 1 0.80234 0.05782 13.88 <.0001 hml 1 0.61022 0.11110 5.49 <.0001 smb 1 0.90682 0.07103 12.77 <.0001 wml 1 0.59184 0.15292 3.87 0.0001 Value Pr > |t| 271 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (23) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL23 Dependent Variable: _87 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.03666 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.02843 0.00711 211.55 <.0001 0.00823 0.00003360 Root MSE 0.00580 R-Square 0.7755 Dependent Mean 0.00211 Adj R-Sq 0.7718 Coeff Var 274.88525 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00152 0.00039528 3.84 0.0002 mktreturns 1 0.81841 0.03966 20.64 <.0001 hml 1 0.35082 0.07619 4.60 <.0001 smb 1 0.55691 0.04871 11.43 <.0001 wml 1 0.00233 0.10488 0.02 0.9823 Value Pr > |t| 272 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (24) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL24 Dependent Variable: _88 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.03973 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.03309 0.00827 305.27 <.0001 0.00664 0.00002710 Root MSE 0.00521 R-Square 0.8329 Dependent Mean 0.00133 Adj R-Sq 0.8302 Coeff Var 391.87336 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00043038 0.00035496 1.21 0.2265 mktreturns 1 1.04147 0.03561 29.25 <.0001 hml 1 0.17677 0.06842 2.58 0.0104 smb 1 0.04909 0.04374 1.12 0.2628 wml 1 0.26235 0.09418 2.79 0.0058 Value Pr > |t| 273 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market (25) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL25 Dependent Variable: _91 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.10046 Root MSE 0.01188 R-Square 0.6558 Dependent Mean 0.00143 Adj R-Sq 0.6501 Source Coeff Var Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.06588 0.01647 116.68 <.0001 0.03458 0.00014114 830.48793 Parameter Estimates Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Variable DF Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 0.00066731 0.00081013 0.82 0.4109 mktreturns 1 1.06391 0.08127 13.09 <.0001 hml 1 -0.13836 0.15616 -0.89 0.3765 smb 1 1.24116 0.09983 12.43 <.0001 wml 1 1.95827 0.21495 9.11 <.0001 274 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi (26) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL26 Dependent Variable: _92 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.02566 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.01671 0.00418 114.39 <.0001 0.00895 0.00003652 Root MSE 0.00604 R-Square 0.6513 Dependent Mean 0.00222 Adj R-Sq 0.6456 Coeff Var 271.92912 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00129 0.00041207 3.12 0.0020 mktreturns 1 0.72797 0.04134 17.61 <.0001 hml 1 -0.08969 0.07943 -1.13 0.2599 smb 1 0.35762 0.05078 7.04 <.0001 wml 1 0.31153 0.10933 2.85 0.0048 Value Pr > |t| 275 An Empirical of Carhart Model in Indian Stock Market ( 27) The SAS System The REG Procedure Model: MODEL27 Dependent Variable: _93 Number of Observations Read 250 Number of Observations Used 250 Analysis of Variance DF Sum of Squares Model 4 Error 245 Corrected Total 249 0.02498 Source Mean Square F Value Pr > F 0.01932 0.00483 208.90 <.0001 0.00566 0.00002312 Root MSE 0.00481 R-Square 0.7733 Dependent Mean 0.00249 Adj R-Sq 0.7696 Coeff Var 193.04513 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Intercept 1 0.00141 mktreturns 1 0.83634 hml 1 smb wml Value Pr > |t| 0.00032785 4.31 <.0001 0.03289 25.43 <.0001 -0.03004 0.06320 -0.48 0.6350 1 0.07893 0.04040 1.95 0.0519 1 0.01395 0.08699 0.16 0.8727 If we look at the equations of these portfolios, then portfolio 41’s equation is r = Rf + beta (Km-Rf) + bs.SMB + bv.HML + bw.WML Table A2 Detailed Representation of Carhart Model for 27 Portfolios Portfolio no 41 r = 0.00138 + 0.90270 (Km-Rf) + 1.16574SMB + 1.03303HML -0.73442 WML Portfolio no 42 r = 0.00047311 + 0.83203 (Km-Rf) + 0.47527 SMB + 0.85369 HML -0.22211 WML Portfolio no 43 r = 0.00017084 + 0.96467 (Km-Rf) - 0.01134SMB + 0.77128HML - 0.34916 WML Portfolio no 46 r = 0.00131 + 0.83929 (Km-Rf) + 0.96970 SMB + 0.41665 HML - 0.30609 WML Portfolio no 47 r = 0.00120 + 0.93210 (Km-Rf) + 0.47702 SMB + 0.37490 HML-0.22103 WML 276 Santosh Kumar & Tavishi Portfolio no 48 r = 0.00160 + 0.86183 (Km-Rf) + 0.16309SMB + 0.18102HML - 0.60796 WML Potfolio no 51 r = -0.00042050 + 1.16225 (Km-Rf) + 0.98812SMB - 0.41612HML - 1.93312 WML Portfolio no 52 r = 0.00124 + 0.83919 (Km-Rf) + 0.48828SMB - 0.16330HML - 0.85962 WML Portfolio no 53 r = 0.00125 + 0.94718 (Km-Rf) + 0.06606SMB - 0.13674HML - 0.19695 WML Portfolio no 61 r = 0.00074807 + 0.96878 (Km-Rf) + 1.10809SMB + 0.82086HML - 0.15828 WML Portfolio no 62 r = 0.00153 + 0.86897 (Km-Rf) + 0.57322SMB + 0.58626HML - 0.00055406 WML Portfolio no 63 r = 0.00087308 + 1.05165 (Km-Rf) + 0.03955SMB + 1.09681HML - 0.17580 WML Portfolio no 66 r = 0.00229 + 0.80723 (Km-Rf) + 1.02311SMB + 0.69837HML - 0.22935 WML Portfolio no 67 r = 0.00137 + 0.95152 (Km-Rf) + 0.54834SMB + 0.25765HML - 0.18577 WML Portfolio no 68 r = -0.00003229 + 1.08840 (Km-Rf) + 0.07729SMB + 0.40804HML -0.25261 WML
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