When integrated models meet
stakeholders and data (& vice-versa)
POPULATION
DATA
WATER BASIN
STAKEHOLDERS
MODELS
MODELLERS
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Objective

Describe the method followed in the global
approach of :
 Water
basin management issues assessment
 Stakeholders participation & empowerment
 Models design
 Calibration data gathering
 Validation
 Use
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Participative approach
Protracted cooperation with water council
 Successive surveys & meetings:

 Basin
issues and representations (done, 7/00)
 FIRMA presentation & reaction (done, 12/00)
 Modelling tutorial (5/01)
 Scenarios design (6/01)
 Strategic decisions surveys (summer 2001)
 Model re-engineering (end 2001)
 … (Further steps of iterative process)
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
FIRMA : Orb planning
European
partners
Cemagref
1999
Orb participants
2000
Models discussion
Preliminary diagnosis
Core modelling bases
Defining focus / needs /
models
Regional
models
Results
comparison
Test Orb models
Evaluation model
Results
generalisation
R
2001
Propositions
& viewpoints
R
R
Validation with 2002
scenarios
Evaluation
results
R
R
R
2003
R
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Orb : the basin issues

Objective of FIRMA in Orb :


Support water council for mediation
Issues :
Floods : big issue, but risky business
2.
Irrigation & scarcity : not a big deal
3.
Water quality :  bathing issue, fish
4.
+ Tourism & Agriculture
BUT : Integrative objective for policy makers = local
development…
 Objective : keep together population &
environment (W) in a touristic region
1.
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Stakes / actors / usage system
Agriculture
Tourism
Gravels
Housing
Energy
Actions
Decisions
Floods
Quality
Quantity
River
restauration
Evaluation vs stakes
and W uses
Local actors and institutions
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Basin survey : some results
Météo.
Inondations : les causes avancées
Bassin entonnoir
Épisodes concentrés
Infos météo imprécises
Relief barrière
Déficit d’annonce
de crues
imprévisibilité
orages méditerranéens
Conjonctions défavorables
Urban.
Pas d’écrêtement
Processus
Pas d’écrêtement possible
hydrologiques
Gestion BRL
Avène
Qualité
qualité biologique
Genèse Aléa
Position Avène ds le bassin
rivière
milieu
Gestion EDF
Laouzas incontrôlée
Restitution
acteurs
@
SMVO
–
Béziers
–
5/12/2000
Détérioration
aménagementsEmbâcles
Chgt feuillus
berges
Propagation
Abandon des
baignade
 résineux
Amplification
cultures
Plantations
transversales
Trt mécanique Non submersion
Voiries transverses
nappes
des vignobles
des vignobles
Enherbement
aux écoulements
d’accompagnement
Processus
vignobles agriculture
Détérioration
Faucardage
Vignes
hydrologiques
ripisylve
rivière
immersibles
Dégâts
forage
Endiguement
Quantité
Barrage
rétention
Déprise
amont
Pression touristique
en aval
Imperméabilisation
Urbanisation
Transfert viadomestique
en z inondable
Canal du Midi
Urbanisation
aval
pêche
agriculture
tourisme
Irrigation
qualité biologique
Soutien d’étiage
eau potable
milieu
pêche
Vulnérabilité
des affluents
Expl.
Agriculture Enegrie.
Houle & vent de mer
nappe
seuils Astienne
forage
canal du Midi
Projet aqueduc
rhône-barcelone ?
pavillon bleu
nappe
Astienne
littoral
tourisme
sports
Avène
littoral
navigation
baignade
nappes
d’accompagnement
Habitat
en RDC
Oubli des crues
industrie
Ligne d’eau
eau potable
tourisme
pavillon bleu
tourisme
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Cemagref background
Hydrology
 Spatial analyis
 Role playing games for negotiation support
 Social simulation

 Social
networks dynamics
Stakeholders / stake representation models
 Representation spaces design

LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Possible models and usage
choices
role playing games and models for collective
management

prospective simulation of the basin, with
population dynamics
 negotiation models for flooded area
TRY : Design a representation of the evolution of
the Orb basin, unders various scenarios
(weather, economy, migrations, water
strategies), with outputs as water issues,
economy & demography. Have this evaluated
and modified by actors. Start actual process…

LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Model’s structure (extended Thursday WP3)




Water environment + population (+ economy)
Time horizon : + 15 years (back  40 years)
Time step : ~ season (cf tourism)
Main processes :
•
•
•
•
Migrations (housing & tourism)
Land use evolution
Water use changes (demand & wastes)
Tourism dynamics
!!! A common model but different possible
approaches of model use and degrees of realism of
representations
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Model participative design
Objective : design models structure & content with
actors, to facilitate appropriation  ask for :
 model focus
 known environmental and social dynamics
 main inputs and leverages
 interesting descriptors
 scenarios
 past observed processes
 validation of what’s done and results
 Requires preliminary education ???
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Models, participation & surveys

Models for what ? What’s in (which agents,
interactions and organisations) ?  Model design
 Participatory

Model calibration
 Participatory
(role playing)
 Surveys

Model validation
 Participatory

Model use
 Participatory
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Modelling strategy
•
2 incremental steps (decreasing abstraction) :
CA model fitting population data & Water
1.
•
•
Cf. litterature review (Margaret)
Individual models (end 2001…)
2.
•
•
•
Practice choices with social influences
Local environment / decision model
Attractivity = f ( self, others, environment)
VIRTUAL WORLD
•
Population clusters dynamics
Group dynamics & water demands
Attractivity = f (water, pop, economy)
REAL WORLD
•
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Multi-agent design

Heterogeneous interaction patterns in CA
4
main layers : water, population, land use, economy
 Cells composed with quasi-agents (incl. changing
interactions & strategy for change)
 Fitting statistical data & some (limited) surveys

Individual models
 Multi-criteria
model with social influence through
versatile social networks
 Fitting data and surveys
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Model use scenario
Appropriation (Alone / Group)
1.
•
Modification, criticisms (A/G)
2.
•
3.
4.
5.
6.
Actors play with model
Actors disagree, propose changes in the M
Scenarios designs and test (A)
Proposals and discussions (G)
Transmission to represented people (A G)
Validation of decisions (A & G)
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Calibration & Validation

From data (existing and specific surveys)
 Population
models
 Spatial grains design (crossing grids)
 Individual strategic models with questionnaires
 Physical (water, flows) time series

From knowledge (participation)
 Dynamic
relation between issues / objects
(qualitative description)
 Empirical validation (experts)
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Data needs & requirements

Environment
•
•
Landuse
Water
 Population
•
•
•
•
Water demand & use
Structure and evolution
Migration preferences & change decisions
Social networks
 Economy
•
Costs and benefits
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Population behavior surveys ???
Characteristics of interviewee (ref pop. data)
 Behavior vs. :

 Mobility
and housing
 Water use

Process of change
 Self
evolution
 Social influences
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Problems & questions…
1.
2.
3.
Disagregation level & heterogeneous scales
Interface for models & participation
Relevant parameters (indicators) vs. data
1.
2.
4.
5.
6.
Environmental
Management
Cross-validation
Attractivity of waters for populations
Validation through role playing games
LISC – IRMO – UR3S
Barcelona meeting – March 2001
Conclusion : agenda

FIRMA cooperation :
 Can
provide :
Actors representation surveys methodologies
 Individual decision & population structure surveys
 Role playing games methodologies
 Hydrological models

 Need
:
Participative methods theory
 Economic valuation methods…
 Interfaces, ergonomy
 Cognitive (deliberative) models
 Qualitative models and representations

LISC – IRMO – UR3S