This article was downloaded by: [137.132.123.69] On: 02 July 2015, At: 02:16 Publisher: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) INFORMS is located in Maryland, USA Operations Research Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://pubsonline.informs.org A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options Under Markov Processes Ning Cai, Yingda Song, Steven Kou To cite this article: Ning Cai, Yingda Song, Steven Kou (2015) A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options Under Markov Processes. Operations Research 63(3):540-554. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1385 Full terms and conditions of use: http://pubsonline.informs.org/page/terms-and-conditions This article may be used only for the purposes of research, teaching, and/or private study. Commercial use or systematic downloading (by robots or other automatic processes) is prohibited without explicit Publisher approval, unless otherwise noted. 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For more information on INFORMS, its publications, membership, or meetings visit http://www.informs.org OPERATIONS RESEARCH Vol. 63, No. 3, May–June 2015, pp. 540–554 ISSN 0030-364X (print) ISSN 1526-5463 (online) http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1385 © 2015 INFORMS Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options Under Markov Processes Ning Cai Department of Industrial Engineering and Logistics Management, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong, [email protected] Yingda Song Department of Statistics and Finance, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China, [email protected] Steven Kou Risk Management Institute and Department of Mathematics, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119077, [email protected] A general framework is proposed for pricing both continuously and discretely monitored Asian options under onedimensional Markov processes. For each type (continuously monitored or discretely monitored), we derive the double transform of the Asian option price in terms of the unique bounded solution to a related functional equation. In the special case of continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), the functional equation reduces to a linear system that can be solved analytically via matrix inversion. Thus the Asian option prices under a one-dimensional Markov process can be obtained by first constructing a CTMC to approximate the targeted Markov process model, and then computing the Asian option prices under the approximate CTMC by numerically inverting the double transforms. Numerical experiments indicate that our pricing method is accurate and fast under popular Markov process models, including the CIR model, the CEV model, Merton’s jump diffusion model, the double-exponential jump diffusion model, the variance gamma model, and the CGMY model. Subject classifications: finance: asset pricing; probability: stochastic model applications. Area of review: Financial Engineering. History: Received December 2013; revision received October 2014; accepted March 2015. Published online in Articles in Advance May 13, 2015. 1. Introduction our paper provides a unified framework for pricing both continuously and discretely monitored Asian options under general one-dimensional Markov process models. Recently, Novikov and Kordzakhia (2014) propose a unified approach to deriving upper and lower bounds for Asian-type options, including discretely and continuously monitored Asian options and options on volume-weighted average price, under general semimartingale models. Fusai and Kyriakou (2014) develop a unified method to obtain very accurate bounds for both discretely and continuously monitored Asian option prices under a wide range of models, including exponential Lévy models, stochastic volatility models, and the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. In comparison, our paper is focused on deriving the prices rather than the bounds, and our method is completely different from theirs. The contribution of this paper is threefold. 1. Under general one-dimensional Markov processes, we derive the double transforms of the Asian option prices, either discretely or continuously monitored, in terms of the unique bounded solutions to related functional equations; see §§2 and 3. 2. In the special case of continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), we show that the functional equations reduce to Asian options, whose payoffs are contingent on the arithmetic average of the underlying asset prices over a prespecified period, are among the most popular path-dependent options that are actively traded in the financial markets. The average of the underlying asset prices can be computed either discretely, for which the average is taken over the asset prices at discrete monitoring time points, or continuously, for which the average is calculated via the integration of asset prices over the monitoring time period. The valuation of Asian options is challenging since the arithmetic average usually does not have a simple distribution. There is a vast literature on the pricing of Asian options under the Black-Scholes model (BSM); we refer to Fu et al. (1999) and Linetsky (2004) for detailed literature reviews. Results on the valuation of Asian options beyond the Black-Scholes framework are less extensive. Table 1 summarizes some papers on the pricing of either discretely or continuously monitored Asian options under certain special one-dimensional Markov processes, which are closely related to the study of our paper. It can be seen that the existing literature is usually focused on one type of Asian option (discrete or continuous) and on particular Markov processes. By contrast, 540 Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options 541 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. Table 1. Some literature on Asian option pricing under one-dimensional Markov process models beyond the BSM. Discretely monitored Continuously monitored One-dimensional diffusions Fusai et al. (2008) (CIR) Cai et al. (2014) (general) Fusai et al. (2008) (CIR) Exponential Lévy processes Fusai and Meucci (2008) (general) Fusai et al. (2011) (general) Cai and Kou (2012) (HEM) This paper (general) This paper (general) One-dimensional Markov processes Notes. Fusai et al. (2008) provide a single transform formula for the discretely monitored Asian option price under the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. Cai et al. (2014) derive closed-form analytical expansions for the discretely monitored Asian option prices under general one-dimensional diffusion models. Fusai and Meucci (2008) and Fusai et al. (2011) develop recursive algorithms to evaluate discretely monitored Asian options under general exponential Lévy models, by using convolution and maturity randomization, respectively. Cai and Kou (2012) obtain a closed-form double Laplace transform for the continuously monitored Asian option price under the hyperexponential jump diffusion model (HEM). linear systems that can be solved analytically via matrix inverses, thanks to the Lévy-Desplanques theorem (see, e.g., Horn and Johnson 1985, Corollary 5.6.17); see §4. 3. By first constructing a CTMC to approximate the targeted Markov process via the elegant technique in Mijatović and Pistorius (2013) and then numerically inverting the double transforms related to the constructed CTMC, we can compute the Asian option prices under general one-dimensional Markov process models. Numerical results demonstrate that our method is accurate and fast under popular Markov process models, including the CIR model, the CEV model, Merton’s jump diffusion model (MJD), the double-exponential jump diffusion model (DEJD), the variance gamma model (VG), and the Carr-German-Madan-Yor (CGMY) model; see §5. Pricing Asian options under a CTMC is quite different from pricing other path-dependent options. For example, to price barrier options, one needs to study the first passage times under a CTMC, which have analytical solutions via a matrix obtained by deleting some rows and columns in the transition rate matrix of the CTMC (see Mijatović and Pistorius 2013). Unfortunately, it is not easy to find such simple matrix operations for Asian options. We overcome this difficulty by working on the double transform of the continuously monitored (respectively, discretely monitored) Asian option price with respect to the strike price and the maturity (respectively, the number of monitoring time points), in the spirit of Fu et al. (1999). Then we show that the double transforms are the unique bounded solutions to related functional equations, which can be solved analytically in the case of CTMCs, using the strictly diagonally dominant matrix and the Lévy-Desplanques theorem. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Some preliminary results regarding the double transforms of Asian option prices are given in §2. In §3 we derive the double transforms for Asian option prices under general one-dimensional Markov processes in terms of the unique bounded solutions to related functional equations. Then we apply the general results to the CTMC in §4 and solve the related functional equations explicitly. We summarize our pricing method in two steps and provide numerical results in §5. Error analysis of our pricing method is conducted in §6. For error analysis related to Asian option pricing, we refer to, e.g., Zhang and Oosterlee (2013) about a Fourier cosine expansion method for Asian option pricing under exponential Lévy models. 2. Preliminary Results For simplicity, we consider only Asian call options, while the put options can be dealt with similarly. Throughout this paper, we shall work under the risk-neutral probability space 4ì1 F1 8Ft 9t¾0 1 5. This implies that for t ¾ 0, Ɛx 6St 7 = xe4r−d5t , where r is the risk-free rate, d is the dividend rate, and Ɛx 6 · 7 denotes the expectation taken under the risk-neutral measure given the initial price S0 = x. The price of a continuously monitored Asian call option at time 0 is given by + 1 Vc 4T 1 K3 x5 = e−rT Ɛx AT − K 1 T Z T with AT 2= St dt1 0 where T is the maturity and K the strike price. Similarly, the price of a discretely monitored Asian call option at time 0 is given by + 1 −rT x B −K 1 Vd 4n1 K3 x5 = e Ɛ n+1 n with Bn 2= n X Siã 1 i=0 where ã is the length of the monitoring time interval and the n+1 monitoring dates are assumed to be equally spaced with nã = T . For convenience, define vc 4t1 k3 x5 = Ɛx 64At − k5+ 7 and vd 4n1 k3 x5 = Ɛx 64Bn − k5+ 70 (1) Note that Vc 4T 1 K3 x5 = 4e−rT /T 5vc 4T 1 TK3 x5 and Vd 4n1 K3 x5 = 4e−rT /4n + 155vd 4n1 4n + 15K3 x5. Then the pricing problems of Asian options reduce to the computation of vc 4t1 k3 x5 and vd 4n1 k3 x5. The following proposition provides a model-free result for the double transforms of vc 4t1 k3 x5 with respect to t Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 542 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS and k and vd 4n1 k3 x5 with respect to n and k. Fu et al. (1999) use the same transform in the pricing of continuously monitored Asian options under the BSM. Here we extend it to general Markov processes for both continuously and discretely monitored Asian options. (ii) The proof is similar to that for (i) and is thus omitted. Proposition 1 (Double Transforms of Asian Option Prices). (i) (Discretely Monitored Asian Options) Let Ld 4z1 3 x5 be the Z-Laplace transform k3 x5 P of nvRd 4n1 + −k with respect to n and k, i.e., Ld 4z1 3 x5 = + e · n=0 z 0 vd 4n1 k3 x5 dk. Then for any complex z and such that z < min8e−4r−d5ã 1 19 and Re45 > 0, we have 1 1 x Ld 4z13x5 = 2 l4z13x5− 2 + 1 41−z5 41−z541−zerã 5 where + X l4z1 3 x5 2= zn Ex 6e−Bn 70 (2) According to Proposition 1, to derive the double transforms of discretely and continuously monitored Asian option prices, it suffices to compute the functions l4z1 3 x5 and m41 3 x5. In this section, we will show that for onedimensional time-homogeneous Markov processes, the two functions l4z1 3 x5 and m41 3 x5 are the unique bounded solutions to certain functional equations. Suppose 8St 1 t ¾ 09 is a nonnegative one-dimensional time-homogeneous Markov process. For continuously monitored Asian options, we require 8St 9 to have the infinitesimal generator G (the existence of infinitesimal generator can be ensured by the Feller property; see, e.g., Ethier and Kurtz 2005, Chap. 4). Infinitesimal generators of some popular models are listed in Table 2. n=0 (ii) (Continuously Monitored Asian Options) Let Lc 41 3 x5 be the double-Laplace transform of Rvc 4t1 k3 x5 R + + −t with respect to t and k, i.e., Lc 41 3 x5 = 0 e · 0 −k e vc 4t1 k3 x5 dk dt. Then for any complex and such that Re45 > max8r − d1 09 and Re45 > 0, we have 1 1 x 1 Lc 41 3 x5 = 2 m41 3 x5 − 2 + 4 − r5 where Z + m41 3 x5 2= e−t Ex 6e−At 7 dt0 (3) 0 Proof. (i) First, the function l4z1 3 x5 is well defined for any z < 1 and Re45 > 0 because l4z1 3 x5 ¶ P n n=0 z < . By Fubini’s theorem, Z B n X Ld 4z1 3 x5 = zn Ɛx e−k 4Bn − k5 dk 0 n=0 = X n=0 = zn Ɛx Bn 1 − e−Bn − 2 1 X zn 4Ɛx 6e−Bn 7 + Ɛx 6Bn 7 − 15 2 n=0 1 1 1X + zn Ɛx 6Bn 70 = 2 l4z1 3 x5 − 2 41 − z5 n=0 Note that under the risk-neutral measure, n X 1 − e4n+154r−d5ã Ɛx 6Bn 7 = x e4r−d5ti = x 0 1 − e4r−d5ã i=0 Then it follows that for any complex z and such that z < e−4r−d5ã and Re45 > 0, 1 1 Ld 4z1 3 x5 = 2 l4z1 3 x5 − 2 41 − z5 + = X x zn 61 − e4n+154r−d5ã 7 41 − e4r−d5ã 5 n=0 1 1 l4z1 3 x5 − 2 2 41 − z5 x + 0 41 − z541 − ze4r−d5ã 5 3. Functional Equations for Markov Processes Theorem 1 (Functional Equations: Uniqueness and Stochastic Representations). (i) (Discretely Monitored Asian Options) Given ã > 0, for any z and such that z < 1 and Re45 > 0, if there exists a function f 4x5 that solves the functional equation ex f 4x5 − zƐx 6f 4Sã 57 = 11 (4) and is bounded, i.e., supx∈601 5 f 4x5 ¶ C < for some constant C > 0, then we must have f 4x5 = l4z1 3 x5, where l4z1 3 x5 is defined in (2). (ii) (Continuously Monitored Asian Options) Furthermore, assume that 8St 1 t ¾ 09 has right-continuousand-left-limit paths and the infinitesimal generator G, and Ɛx 6St1+ 7 < for some > 0. For any and such that Re45 > 0 and Re45 > 0, if there exists a function f 4x5 that solves the functional equation 4x + − G5f 4x5 = 11 (5) and is bounded, i.e., supx∈601 5 f 4x5 ¶ C < for some constant C > 0, then we must have f 4x5 = m41 3 x5, where m41 3 x5 is defined in (3). Proof. See Appendix A. 4. Analytical Solutions to the Functional Equations Under Continuous-Time Markov Chains It turns out that the two functional Equations (4) and (5) in Theorem 1 can be solved analytically for a special family of Markov processes, i.e., the CTMCs. Consider a nonnegative CTMC 8St 1 t ¾ 09 with finite state space 8x1 1 0 0 0 1 xN 9, whose transition probability matrix P4t5 = 4pij 4t55N ×N and transition rate matrix G = 4qij 5N ×N are defined as pij 4t5 = 4St+u = xj Su = xi 5 and qij = pij0 4051 1 ¶ i1 j ¶ N 1 t1 u ¾ 00 Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options 543 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS Table 2. The infinitesimal generators of some popular models. Gf 4x5 Model BSM Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. CIR CEV DEJD MJD VG 1 4r − d5xf 0 4x5 + 2 x2 f 00 4x5 2 1 4r − d5xf 0 4x5 + 2 xf 00 4x5 2 1 4r − d5xf 0 4x5 + 2 x241+5 f 00 4x5 2 Z 1 2 2 00 0 4r − d5xf 4x5 + x f 4x5 + 6f 4xey 5 − f 4x5 − xf 0 4x54ey − 157de 4dy5 2 Z 1 4r − d5xf 0 4x5 + 2 x2 f 00 4x5 + 6f 4xey 5 − f 4x5 − xf 0 4x54ey − 157mj 4dy5 2 Z 4r − d5xf 0 4x5 + 6f 4xey 5 − f 4x5 − xf 0 4x54ey − 157vg 4dy5 CGMY 4r − d5xf 0 4x5 + Z 6f 4xey 5 − f 4x5 − xf 0 4x54ey − 157cgmy 4dy5 Notes. For the DEJD model, de 4dy5 = 4pe−y I8y¾09 +41−p5ey I8y<09 5dy, with 0 ¶ p ¶ 1 and > 111 > 0; for the √ 2 −44y−52 /22 5 dy, with 1 > 0; for the VG model, 4dy5 = 41/4vy55exp44/2 5y − MJD vg p model, mj 4dy5 = 4/ 2 5e 2 2 4 2/v + / /5y5dy, with 1 v > 0; for the CGMY model, cgmy 4dy5 = 4C/y1+Y 5 exp444G − M5/25y − 44G + M5/25y5dy, with C > 0, G1 M ¾ 0 and Y < 2. Define x = 4x1 1 0 0 0 1 xN 5T , D = 4dij 5N ×N as a diagonal matrix with djj = xj for j = 11 0 0 0 1 N , I = IN as the identity matrix, and 1 as an N × 1 constant vector with all entries equal to 1. Theorem 1 immediately implies the following result. Corollary 1 (Uniqueness and Stochastic Representation Under CTMCs). (i) (Discretely Monitored Asian Options) Given ã > 0, for any z and such that z < 1 and Re45 > 0, if there exists an N × 1 vector f that solves the linear system 4eD − zP4ã55 · f = 11 (6) then we have f = l4z13x5 2= 4l4z13x1 510001l4z13xN 55T , where l4z13x5 is defined in (2) for the CTMC 8St 9. (ii) (Continuously Monitored Asian Options) For any and such that Re45 > 0 and Re45 > 0, if there exists an N × 1 vector f that solves the linear system 4D + I − G5 · f = 11 then f = m413x5 2= 4m413x1 510001m413xN 55 , where m413x5 is defined in (3) for the CTMC 8St 9. A square matrix A = 4aij 5N ×N with complex entries is said to be strictly diagonally dominant, if N X ajk Proof. The two matrices eD − zP4ã5 and D + I − G are both strictly diagonally dominant because for all j = 11 0 0 0 1 N , we have edjj −zpjj 4ã5 ¾ edjj −zpjj 4ã5 ¾ 1−zpjj 4ã5 > z41−pjj 4ã55 = z N X pjk 4ã5 and k=1 k6=j djj +−qjj ¾ Re4djj +−qjj 5 (7) T ajj > Theorem 2 (Analytical Solutions for l4z1 3 x5 and m41 3 x5 Under CTMCs). (i) (Discretely Monitored Asian Options) For any z and such that z < 1 and Re45 > 0, we have l4z1 3 x5 2= 4l4z1 3 x1 51 0 0 0 1 l4z1 3 xN 55T = 4eD − zP4ã55−1 · 1. (ii) (Continuously Monitored Asian Options) For any and such that Re45 > 0 and Re45 > 0, we have m41 3 x5 2= 4m41 3 x1 51 0 0 0 1 m41 3 xN 55T = 4D + I − G5−1 · 1. for all j = 11 0 0 0 1 N 0 k=1 k6=j The Lévy-Desplanques theorem (see, e.g., Horn and Johnson 1985, Corollary 5.6.17) states that if A is strictly diagonally dominant, then it is invertible. Applying the LévyDesplanques theorem, we can solve (6) and (7) by inverting the matrices. = Re45djj +Re45−qjj > −qjj = N X qjk 0 k=1 k6=j Therefore, both of them are invertible thanks to the LévyDesplanques theorem. Hence the solutions to (6) and (7) are f = 4eD − zP4ã55−1 · 1 and f = 4D + I − G5−1 1, respectively. By Corollary 1, we complete the proof immediately. 5. Pricing Asian Options by CTMC-Approximation According to Proposition 1 and Theorem 2, if we can construct a CTMC properly to approximate a general onedimensional time-homogeneous Markov process, then the Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options 544 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. double transform inversion-based analytical solutions to Asian option prices under this constructed CTMC can serve as approximations for Asian option prices under the original Markov process model. Mijatović and Pistorius (2013) develop an elegant technique to construct a sequence of CTMCs that weakly converge to a one-dimensional Markov process with generator G given by Gf 4x5 = GD f 4x5 + GJ f 4x51 where GD f 4x5 = 4r − d5xf 0 4x5 + 21 4x52 x2 f 00 4x5 and Z GJ f 4x5 = 6f 4x41 + y55 − f 4x5 − f 0 4x5xy74x1 dy50 −1 Here R 2for any x ¾ 0, 4x1 dy5 is a Lévy measure such that y 4x1 dy5 < . −1 More precisely, based on the technique of Mijatović and Pistorius (2013), we can use a CTMC with state space 8x1 1 0 0 0 1 xN 9 and transition rate matrix G = åD + åJ to approximate the targeted Markov process. Here åJ = 4åJij 5N ×N is constructed explicitly by åJij = 01 i = 1 or N 1 Z i 4j5 4x1 dy51 i = 6 11 N and i 6= j1 i 4j−15 N X − åJ 1 j=1 ij i 6= 11 N and i = j1 j6=i where i 405 = −1, i 4N 5 = +, and i 4j5 is any number between xj /xi − 1 and xj+1 /xi − 1 for j = 11 0 0 0 1 N − 1. Moreover, åD = 4åDij 5N ×N is a tridiagonal matrix determined implicitly by N X åDij = 01 j=1 N X åDij 4xj − xi 5 = 4r − d5xi − j=1 N X N X åJij 4xj − xi 51 j=1 åDij 4xj − xi 52 = xi2 4xi 52 + j=1 − N X Z y 2 4x1 dy5 −1 åJij 4xj − xi 52 1 j=1 when i 6= 11 N , and åDij = 0 when i = 1 or N . Then G and P4ã5 = Exp8ãG9 will be used to calculate l4z1 3 x5 and m41 3 x5 in Theorem 2, where Exp8 · 9 denotes the matrix exponential. Notice that when the original Markov process is a diffusion, G ≡ GD is simply a tridiagonal matrix. In our numerical implementation, we choose x1 = 10−3 S0 and xN = 4S0 , and generate other states 8x2 1 0 0 0 1 xN −1 9 based on the procedure in Mijatović and Pistorius (2013). More specifically, we set xk = S0 + sinh441 − 4k − 15/4N /2 − 155 arsinh4x1 − S0 55 for 2 ¶ k ¶ N /2, and xk = S0 + sinh444k − N /25/4N /255 arsinh4xN − S0 55 for N /2 < k ¶ N − 1. Intuitively, these N states are nonuniformly distributed over 6x1 1 xN 7 and are placed more densely around S0 . Since the Asian option payoffs are continuous with respect to the sample paths (see, e.g., Prigent 2003, §1.2.2), we can show that the Asian option prices under the constructed CTMC converge to the prices under the targeted Markov process models, thanks to the continuous mapping theorem and the dominated convergence theorem. In summary, our pricing algorithm consists of two steps: Step 1. Construct a CTMC to approximate the targeted Markov process model via the technique in Mijatović and Pistorius (2013). Step 2. Invert the analytical double transforms of Asian option prices under the approximate CTMC numerically to obtain the approximations for Asian option prices under the original Markov process model. For the numerical inversion of the double transforms, we use the algorithms in Choudhury et al. (1994); the details are given in Appendix B. In the following subsections, numerical results will be provided to illustrate the performance of our method under different models, including the CIR model, the CEV model, the DEJD model, the MJD model, the VG model, and the CGMY model. These models are selected as representatives for different types of Markov process models, namely, diffusion models (CIR and CEV), jump diffusion models (DEJD and MJD), and pure jump models (VG and CGMY). Our method appears to be accurate and fast under these models. All the computations are conducted using MATLAB 7 on a desktop with an Intel Core i7 3.40 GHZ processor. 5.1. The CIR Model Table 3 provides numerical prices (denoted by “CTMC”) for both discretely and continuously monitored Asian option prices under the CIR model obtained via our method. The parameter settings are the same as in Fusai et al. (2008) for the commodity market, and the results obtained from their analytical solution are used as benchmarks (denoted by “Fusai et al.”). As shown in Table 3, our method is highly accurate for both discretely monitored Asian options with different monitoring frequencies (n = 12, 25, 50, 100 and 250) and continuously monitored Asian options (n = +). The average (respectively, the maximum) absolute error is approximately 0000020 (respectively, 0.00095) and the average (respectively, the maximum) relative error is approximately 0.11% (respectively, 0.44%). Besides, we report that the CPU times to generate one numerical price via our method are about 0.2, 0.4, 0.7, 1.5, and 3.7 seconds for n = 12, 25, 50, 100, and 250, respectively, and about 0.12 seconds for continuously monitored Asian options (i.e., n = +). Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options 545 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS Table 3. Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. K Pricing Asian options under the CIR model. Fusai et al. CTMC 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 0021279 0018659 0016282 0014140 0012223 0021257 0018638 0016264 0014126 0012213 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 0021501 0018883 0016505 0014359 0012434 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 0021560 0018943 0016565 0014418 0012492 Abs. err. Rel. err. (%) Fusai et al. CTMC 0010 0011 0011 0010 0009 0021428 0018810 0016432 0014287 0012365 0021406 0018789 0016414 0014273 0012355 0044 0011 0011 0010 0008 0021538 0018920 0016542 0014395 0012470 0010 0011 0011 0010 0009 0021575 0018958 0016580 0014433 0012506 n = 12 −0000022 −0000021 −0000018 −0000014 −0000010 n = 50 0021406 −0000095 0018862 −0000021 0016487 −0000018 0014344 −0000015 0012424 −0000010 n = 250 0021537 −0000023 0018922 −0000021 0016547 −0000018 0014403 −0000015 0012481 −0000011 Abs. err. n = 25 −0000022 −0000021 −0000018 −0000014 −0000010 n = 100 0021515 −0000023 0018899 −0000021 0016524 −0000018 0014381 −0000014 0012460 −0000010 n = + 0021552 −0000023 0018937 −0000021 0016562 −0000018 0014418 −0000015 0012496 −0000010 Rel. err. (%) 0010 0011 0011 0010 0008 0011 0011 0011 0010 0008 0010 0011 0011 0010 0008 Notes. Pricing Asian options under the CIR model via our CTMC approximation with N = 50. The parameter settings are the same as in Fusai et al. (2008), i.e., r = 0004, d = 0, = 007, S0 = 1, and T = 1. The columns “Fusai et al.” are taken from Fusai et al. (2008) and are obtained from their analytical solution. The CPU times to generate one numerical price via our method are about 0.2, 0.4, 0.7, 1.5, and 3.7 seconds for n = 12, 25, 50, 100, and 250, respectively, and about 0.12 seconds for n = +, i.e., for continuously monitored Asian options. 5.2. The CEV Model Table 4 gives numerical prices (denoted by “CTMC”) for both discretely and continuously monitored Asian options under the CEV model obtained via our method (we refer to Davydov and Linetsky 2001 for analytical pricing of Table 4. other path-dependent options such as continuously monitored lookback and barrier options. Also see Sesana et al. 2014 for a recursive algorithm for the pricing of discretely monitored Asian options under the CEV model). Here we consider three cases with = 00251 −0025 and −005, Pricing Asian options under the CEV model. (I) Discretely monitored Asian options under the CEV model (n = 250) K Cai et al. 80 90 100 110 120 21060167 13015550 6084034 3007180 1022841 80 90 100 110 120 21067122 13026903 6084853 2092962 1004072 80 90 100 110 120 21071428 13032877 6085365 2086119 0095542 CTMC Abs. err. = 0025 21060974 0000807 13015548 −0000002 6082619 −0001415 3005691 −0001489 1022497 −0000344 = −0025 21067979 0000857 13026768 −0000135 6083407 −0001446 2091597 −0001365 1004152 0000080 = −005 21072237 0000809 13032675 −0000202 6083904 −0001461 2084823 −0001296 0095803 0000261 (II) Continuously monitored Asian options under the CEV model Rel. err. (%) MC value Std. err. 0004 0000 0021 0048 0028 21059408 13015109 6083859 3007333 1023175 0000468 0000425 0000340 0000239 0000154 0004 0001 0021 0047 0008 21066618 13026741 6085150 2093166 1004453 0000464 0000417 0000327 0000221 0000131 0004 0002 0021 0045 0027 21071118 13032850 6085984 2086666 0095995 0000465 0000416 0000324 0000215 0000122 CTMC = 0025 21061076 13015931 6083128 3006138 1022762 = −0025 21068104 13027147 6083920 2092049 1004429 = −005 21072370 13033052 6084420 2085276 0096084 Abs. err. Rel. err. (%) 0001667 0000822 −0000731 −0001195 −0000413 0008 0006 0011 0039 0034 0001486 0000407 −0001230 −0001116 −0000025 0007 0003 0018 0038 0002 0001252 0000202 −0001564 −0001390 0000089 0006 0002 0023 0048 0009 Notes. Part (I) compares our numerical prices via CTMC approximation (N = 50) with asymptotic expansion results in Cai et al. (2014) for discretely monitored Asian options under the CEV model. It takes around 3.6 seconds to generate one price via our method. Part (II) compares our numerical prices via CTMC approximation (N = 50) with Monte Carlo simulation estimates (denoted by “MC value.” The sample size is 110001000 and the number of time steps is 101000) for continuously monitored Asian options under the CEV model. It takes around 0.12 seconds to generate one price via our method. The unvarying parameters are r = 0005, d = 0, S0 = 100, T = 1, and S0 = 0025. Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 546 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS respectively. Part (I) in Table 4 provides our numerical results for daily monitored (n = 250) Asian option prices as well as the benchmark prices (denoted by “Cai et al.”) that are taken from Cai et al. (2014) and obtained from asymptotic expansion. It can be seen that our method is very accurate with average (respectively, maximum) absolute error 0.00798 (respectively, 0.01489) and average (respectively, maximum) relative error 0.19% (respectively, 0.48%). Besides, it takes around 3.6 seconds to generate one price via our method. For continuously monitored Asian options, we construct benchmarks using Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000,000 sample paths and 10,000 time steps. From part (II) of Table 4 we can see that our method is also very accurate with average (respectively, maximum) absolute error 0.00906 (respectively, 0.01667) and average (respectively, maximum) relative error 0.17% (respectively, 0.48%). Besides, it takes around 0.12 seconds to generate one price via our method. Table 5. 5.3. The Double-Exponential Jump Diffusion Model Part (I) in Table 5 shows the comparison of discretely monitored Asian option prices obtained via our method (denoted by “CTMC”) and those obtained by the recursive algorithm in Fusai and Meucci (2008) under the DEJD model (see Kou 2002). We can see that our method is quite accurate for different monitoring frequencies (n = 12, 50, and 250) because the average (respectively, the maximum) absolute error is around 0.00325 (respectively, 0.00458) and the average (respectively, maximum) relative error is around 0.09% (respectively, 0.15%). Besides, it takes about 0.2, 0.7, and 3.6 seconds to generate one price via our method for n = 12, 50, and 250, respectively. For continuously monitored Asian options, we compare our numerical results with those obtained via transform-based analytical solution in Cai and Kou (2012); see part (II) in Table 5. It can be seen that the average (respectively, the maximum) Pricing Asian options under the DEJD model. (I) Discretely monitored Asian options under the DEJD model n K Fusai and Meucci CTMC Abs. err. Rel. err. (%) 12 90 100 110 90 100 110 90 100 110 12071236 5001712 1004142 12074369 5005809 1006878 12075241 5006949 1007646 12070857 5001254 1003988 12074016 5005358 1006725 12074875 5006491 1007489 −0000379 −0000458 −0000154 −0000353 −0000451 −0000153 −0000366 −0000458 −0000157 0003 0009 0015 0003 0009 0014 0003 0009 0015 50 250 (II) Continuously monitored Asian options under the DEJD model K Cai and Kou 90 95 100 105 110 13047952 9016588 5038761 2072681 1028264 90 95 100 105 110 14017380 10053795 7048805 5009001 3032061 90 95 100 105 110 16081490 13087995 11033257 9016131 7034063 CTMC Abs. err. = 0005 13046823 −0001129 9018472 0001884 5037399 −0001362 2071628 −0001053 1030224 0001960 = 002 14017589 0000209 10053824 0000029 7048621 −0000184 5008708 −0000293 3031802 −0000259 = 004 16081130 −0000360 13087460 −0000535 11032581 −0000676 9015366 −0000765 7033266 −0000797 Rel. err. (%) Cai and Kou 0008 0021 0025 0039 1053 13055964 9041962 5091537 3035071 1074896 0001 0000 0002 0006 0008 15033688 12010723 9035336 7008059 5026109 0002 0004 0006 0008 0011 18046259 15075006 13036027 11027716 9047826 CTMC Abs. err. = 001 13056418 0000454 9042931 0000969 5091365 −0000172 3034830 −0000241 1075431 0000535 = 003 15033545 −0000143 12010414 −0000309 9034883 −0000453 7007520 −0000539 5025561 −0000548 = 005 18045288 −0000971 15073859 −0001147 13034737 −0001290 11026330 −0001386 9046389 −0001437 Rel. err. (%) 0003 0010 0003 0007 0031 0001 0003 0005 0008 0010 0005 0007 0010 0012 0015 Notes. Part (I) compares our numerical prices via CTMC approximation (N = 50) with those obtained via the recursive algorithm in Fusai and Meucci (2008) for discretely monitored Asian options under the DEJD model. The unvarying parameters are the same as in Fusai and Meucci (2008), i.e., r = 000367, d = 0, S0 = 100, T = 1, = 00120381, p = 002071, = 9065997, = 3013868, and = 00330966. It takes about 0.2, 0.7, and 3.6 seconds to generate one price via our method for n = 12, 50, and 250, respectively. Part (II) compares our numerical prices via CTMC approximation (N = 100) with the double-Laplace inversion results in Cai and Kou (2012) for continuously monitored Asian options under the DEJD model. The unvarying parameters are r = 0009, d = 0, S0 = 100, T = 1, p = 006, = = 25, and = 5. It takes about 1.1 seconds to obtain one price via our method. Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options 547 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS absolute error is around 0.00736 (respectively, 0.01960) and the average (respectively, maximum) relative error is around 0.14% (respectively, 1.53%). Besides, it takes about 1.1 seconds to obtain one price via our method. Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 5.4. Merton’s Jump Diffusion Model In Table 6, we compare in part (I) the numerical results of discretely monitored Asian option prices obtained via our method with those obtained via the recursive method in Fusai and Meucci (2008), and we compare in part (II) our numerical results for continuously monitored Asian option prices with Monte Carlo simulation estimates under the MJD model (see Merton 1976). It can be seen that our method is quite accurate in both cases. Indeed, in the discrete monitoring case, the average (respectively, maximum) absolute error is around 0.00417 (respectively, 0.00592) and the average (respectively, maximum) relative error is around 0.12% (respectively, 0.21%). In the continuous monitoring case, the average (respectively, maximum) absolute error is around 0.00235 (respectively, 0.00822) and the average (respectively, maximum) relative error is around 0.27% (respectively, 0.76%). In addition, the CPU Table 6. Pricing Asian options under the MJD model. (I) Discretely monitored Asian options under the MJD model n K Fusai and Meucci CTMC Abs. err. Rel. err. (%) 12 90 100 110 90 100 110 90 100 110 12071066 5001127 1005162 12074093 5005246 1007959 12074917 5006381 1008740 12070620 5000539 1004941 12073659 5004654 1007736 12074485 5005790 1008515 −0000446 −0000588 −0000221 −0000434 −0000592 −0000223 −0000432 −0000591 −0000225 0004 0012 0021 0003 0012 0021 0003 0012 0021 50 250 Table 7. Case no. 1 2 3 4 90 100 110 MC value Std. err. CTMC Abs. err. Rel. err. (%) 12074587 5005974 1008413 0000371 0000399 0000280 12074705 5005740 1009235 0000117 −0000235 0000822 0001 0005 0076 Notes. Part (I) compares our numerical prices via CTMC approximation (N = 50) with those obtained via the recursive algorithm in Fusai and Meucci (2008) for discretely monitored Asian options under the MJD model. It takes about 0.2, 0.7, and 3.6 seconds to generate one price via our method for n = 12, 50, and 250, respectively. Part (II) compares our numerical prices via CTMC approximation (N = 50) with Monte Carlo simulation estimates (denoted by “MC value.” The sample size is 110001000 and the number of time steps is 101000) for continuously monitored Asian options under the MJD model. It takes about 0.3 seconds to obtain one price via our method. For both parts, the unvarying parameters are the same as in Fusai and Meucci (2008) and obtained from calibration, i.e., r = 000367, d = 0, S0 = 100, T = 1, = 00126349, = −00390078, = 00338796, and = 00174814. r d 000533 000536 000549 000541 00011 00012 00011 00012 0017875 0018500 0019071 0020722 0013317 0022460 0049083 0050215 −0030649 −0028837 −0028113 −0022898 Note. These parameter settings are obtained from calibration for S&P 500 on June 30, 1999 by Hirsa and Madan (2004). times for producing one numerical result via our method are 0.2 seconds for n = 12, 0.7 seconds for n = 50, 3.6 seconds for n = 250, and 0.3 seconds for continuously monitored Asian options. 5.5. The Variance Gamma Model In this subsection, we consider the VG model, a pure jump model, under the four cases of parameter settings calibrated for S&P 500 on June 30, 1999 by Hirsa and Madan (2004) except T = 1 (see Table 7). Table 8 provides the numerical results for both discretely and continuously monitored Asian options obtained via our method as well as the benchmark prices computed by Monte Carlo simulation. We can see that the average (respectively, maximum) absolute error is around 0.0099 (respectively, 0.0187) and the average (respectively, maximum) relative error is around 0.17% (respectively, 0.30%). Besides, the CPU times for producing one numerical result via our method are 0.2 seconds for Table 8. n 12 50 (II) Continuously monitored Asian options under the MJD model K Test cases of parameter settings for Asian options under the VG model. 250 Pricing Asian options under the VG model. Case no. MC values Std. err. CTMC Abs. err. Rel. err. (%) 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 505193 507773 603873 601591 505740 508455 604541 602146 505975 508606 604752 602246 505932 508585 604687 602289 000034 000036 000039 000040 000034 000037 000040 000040 000034 000037 000040 000041 000034 000037 000040 000041 505068 507692 603802 601404 505655 508301 604436 602011 505815 508467 604610 602177 505869 508533 604673 602295 −000125 −000082 −000071 −000187 −000085 −000154 −000105 −000135 −000160 −000139 −000143 −000069 −000063 −000052 −000014 000007 0023 0014 0011 0030 0015 0026 0016 0022 0029 0024 0022 0011 0011 0009 0002 0001 Notes. Pricing Asian options under the VG model via CTMC approximation (N = 50). The columns “MC value” and “Std. err.” denote the Monte Carlo simulation estimates and associated standard errors obtained by simulating 110001000 sample paths and using 10,000 time steps for continuous monitoring cases. The four cases of parameter settings are taken from Table 1 of Hirsa and Madan (2004) except T = 1 (see Table 7 in this paper) and obtained from calibration of S&P 500 on June 30, 1999. The CPU times for producing one numerical result via our method are 0.2 seconds for n = 12, 0.8 seconds for n = 50, 3.8 seconds for n = 250, and 0.3 seconds for continuously monitored Asian options (i.e., n = +). Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options 548 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS Table 9. for n = 12, 0.8 seconds for n = 50, 3.6 seconds for n = 250, and 0.3 seconds for continuously monitored Asian options. Pricing Asian options under the CGMY model. Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. (I) Discretely monitored Asian options under the CGMY model 5.7. Computing the Greeks n = 12, 0.8 seconds for n = 50, 3.8 seconds for n = 250, and 0.3 seconds for continuously monitored Asian options. Our method can also be applied to compute the sensitivities of the option prices approximately. Below we take the delta as an example. To approximate the delta ã4S0 5 of either continuously or discretely monitored Asian option price for an initial stock price S0 , we first use our CTMC approximation method to obtain the Asian option prices V 4S0 + 5 and V 4S0 − 5 with the initial stock price equal to S0 + and S0 − , respectively (here is a small number). Then ã4S0 5 can be approximated by ã4S0 5 ≈ 41/42 554V 4S0 + 5− V 4S0 − 55. Table 10 gives the numerical results for the delta (denoted by “CTMC”) under the CEV model obtained by our method. The parameter settings are the same as in Table 4, and the benchmarks are constructed using the finite difference approximation of Monte Carlo simulation estimates. It can be seen that our results are very accurate. For the daily monitored (n = 250) Asian options, part (I) in Table 10 shows that our numerical results of delta have average (respectively, maximum) absolute error 0.00092 (respectively, 0.00170) and average (respectively, maximum) relative error 0.33% (respectively, 1.15%). Besides, it takes around 7.1 seconds to generate one numerical result of delta via our method. For continuously monitored Asian options, as shown in part (II) of Table 10, the average (respectively, maximum) absolute error is 0.00086 (respectively, 0.00149), and the average (respectively, maximum) relative error is 0.27% (respectively, 0.96%). It takes around 0.2 seconds to generate one numerical result of delta via our method. For a detailed study for computing greeks of Asian options under exponential Lévy models, we refer to the paper by Ballotta et al. (2014). 5.6. The CGMY Model 5.8. Pricing of Floating Strike Asian Options In this subsection, we consider another pure jump model, the CGMY model (see Carr et al. 2002). In Table 9, we compare in part (I) the numerical results of discretely monitored Asian option prices obtained via our method with those obtained via the recursive method in Fusai and Meucci (2008), and we compare in part (II) our numerical results for continuously monitored Asian option prices with those generated by the Monte Carlo simulation method of Madan and Yor (2008). It can be seen that our method is quite accurate in both cases. In the discrete monitoring case, the average (respectively, maximum) absolute error is around 0.00573 (respectively, 0.00941) and the average (respectively, maximum) relative error is around 0.28% (respectively, 0.64%). In the continuous monitoring case, the average (respectively, maximum) absolute error is around 0.00388 (respectively, 0.00846) and the average (respectively, maximum) relative error is around 0.13% (respectively, 0.21%). In addition, the CPU times for producing one numerical result via our method are 0.2 seconds In the previous sections, we focus our discussions on the Asian options with fixed strike prices. There also exist floating strike Asian options. For instance, the price of a continuously monitored floating strike Asian put option at time 0 is given by + 1 AT − ST 1 Ṽc 4T 1 3 x5 = e−rT Ɛx T Z T with AT 2= St dt1 n K Fusai and Meucci 12 90 100 110 90 100 110 90 100 110 12070625 5003492 1002115 12073854 5007570 1004674 12074737 5008694 1005389 50 250 CTMC Abs. err. Rel. err. (%) 12070406 5002551 1001464 12073745 5006651 1004012 12074653 5007783 1004725 −0000219 −0000941 −0000651 −0000109 −0000919 −0000662 −0000084 −0000911 −0000664 0002 0019 0064 0001 0018 0063 0001 0018 0063 (II) Continuously monitored Asian options under the CGMY model K 90 100 110 MC values Std. err. CTMC Abs. err. Rel. err. (%) 12074788 5008865 1005810 0000396 0000405 0000280 12074689 5008019 1006028 −0000099 −0000846 0000218 0001 0017 0021 Notes. Part (I) compares our numerical prices via CTMC approximation (N = 50) with those obtained via the recursive algorithm in Fusai and Meucci (2008) for discretely monitored Asian options under the CGMY model. It takes about 0.2, 0.8, and 3.6 seconds to generate one price via our method for n = 12, 50, and 250, respectively. Part (II) compares our numerical prices via CTMC approximation (N = 50) with Monte Carlo simulation estimates (denoted by “MC value.” The sample size is 110001000 and the number of time steps is 101000) for continuously monitored Asian options under the CGMY model. It takes about 0.3 seconds to obtain one price via our method. For both parts, the unvarying parameters are the same as in Fusai and Meucci (2008) and obtained from calibration, i.e., r = 000367, d = 0, S0 = 100, T = 1, C = 000244, G = 000765, M = 705515, and Y = 102945. 0 and the price of a discretely monitored floating strike Asian put option at time 0 is given by + 1 −rT x Ṽd 4n1 3 x5 = e Ɛ B − ST 1 n+1 n with Bn 2= n X i=0 where is a positive constant. Siã 1 Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options 549 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS Table 10. Computing deltas for discretely and continuously monitored Asian options under the CEV model. (I) Discretely monitored Asian options under the CEV model (n = 250) Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. K MC value 80 90 100 110 120 0094395 0081128 0056919 0032310 0015470 80 90 100 110 120 0093839 0081468 0058549 0033351 0015113 80 90 100 110 120 0093583 0081682 0059358 0033836 0014866 CTMC Abs. err. (II) Continuously monitored Asian options under the CEV model Rel. err. (%) MC value CTMC 0004 0017 0000 0036 1002 0094395 0081126 0056844 0032315 0015487 0094415 0081250 0056923 0032212 0015338 0005 0016 0000 0035 1008 0093815 0081458 0058509 0033375 0015080 0093873 0081582 0058552 0033252 0014977 0006 0016 0000 0035 1015 0093586 0081732 0059266 0033802 0014829 0093624 0081791 0059364 0033735 0014725 = 0025 0094429 0000033 0081269 0000141 0056920 0000002 0032193 −0000118 0015312 −0000158 = −0025 0093884 0000045 0081601 0000133 0058547 −0000002 0033234 −0000116 0014950 −0000163 = −005 0093634 0000052 0081811 0000129 0059359 0000001 0033718 −0000118 0014696 −0000170 Abs. err. = 0025 0000020 0000123 0000080 −0000102 −0000149 = −0025 0000058 0000124 0000043 −0000122 −0000102 = −005 0000038 0000059 0000097 −0000067 −0000104 Rel. err. (%) 0002 0015 0014 0032 0096 0006 0015 0007 0037 0068 0004 0007 0016 0020 0070 Notes. Part (I) and (II) compare the numerical results of delta via our CTMC approximation method (N = 50) with Monte Carlo simulation estimates (denoted by “MC value”) under the CEV model. For the simulation method, the sample size is 110001000, and the number of time steps for approximating continuously monitored Asian options is 101000; the deltas are calculated by the central difference scheme with step size 0.50. It takes around 7.1 seconds and 0.2 seconds to generate one numerical result via our method for the discretely and continuously monitored Asian options, respectively. The unvarying parameters are r = 0005, d = 0, S0 = 100, T = 1, and S0 = 0025. When the underlying asset follows an exponential Lévy model, Eberlein and Papapantoleon (2005) prove that under some regularity conditions, a floating strike Asian option is equivalent to a fixed strike Asian option under another closely related exponential Lévy model. More precisely, suppose 8St 1 t ¾ 09 follows an exponential Lévy model with the infinitesimal generator 1 4r − d5xf 0 4x5 + 2 x2 f 00 4x5 2 Z + 6f 4xey 5 − f 4x5 − xf 0 4x54ey − 1574dy51 and assume there exists a constant M > 1 such that Ɛx 6Stb 7 < 1 Asian call (respectively, put) option with fixed strike S0 under 8St∗ 1 t ¾ 09. As a consequence, this correspondence enables us to price the floating strike Asian options under an exponential Lévy model 8St 1 t ¾ 09 by pricing the corresponding fixed strike Asian options under the closely related exponential Lévy model 8St∗ 1 t ¾ 09 via our CTMC approximation method. Table 11 provides some numerical results for pricing Asian options with floating strike under Merton’s jump diffusion model. We can see that the average (respectively, maximum) absolute error is around 0.0062 (respectively, 0.0114), and the average (respectively, maximum) relative error is around 0.19% (respectively, 0.35%). Besides, the CPU times for producing one numerical result for any b < M0 Furthermore, consider another process infinitesimal generator Table 11. 8St∗ 1 t ¾ 09 with the 1 4d − r5xf 0 4x5 + 2 x2 f 00 4x5 2 Z y + 6f 4xe 5 − f 4x5 − xf 0 4x54ey − 157 ∗ 4dy51 n 12 50 250 Pricing floating strike Asian options under the MJD model. MC value Std. err. CTMC Abs. err. Rel. err. (%) 303002 303463 303676 303658 000041 000041 000042 000042 303116 303565 303688 303678 000114 000103 000012 000020 0035 0031 0004 0006 where ∗ 4dy5 = e−y 4−dy5. In other words, 8St∗ 1 t ¾ 09 follows another exponential Lévy model with risk free rate d, dividend rate r, and Lévy measure ∗ . Then the price of an (either discretely or continuously monitored) Asian put (respectively, call) option with floating strike and multiplier under 8St 1 t ¾ 09 is equal to the price of an Notes. Pricing Asian put options with floating strikes ( = 1) under Merton’s jump diffusion model via our CTMC approximation with N = 50. The parameters are the same as in Table 6. The columns “MC value” are generated by Monte Carlo simulation, for which the sample size is 1,000,000 and the number of time steps for the continuously monitored Asian option is 10,000. The CPU times to generate one numerical price via our method are about 0.2, 0.7, and 3.8 seconds for n = 12, 50, and 250 respectively, and about 0.3 seconds for n = +, i.e., for continuously monitored Asian options. Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options 550 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. via our method are 0.2, 0.7, and 3.8 seconds for n = 12, 50 and 250, respectively, and 003 seconds for continuously monitored Asian options. Under general Markov processes, there may exist no such simple relationship between floating strike and fixed strike Asian option prices, and the problem of using CTMC approximation to price floating strike Asian options remains an interesting research topic. Since vc 4t1 k3 x5 = Ɛx 64At − k5+ 7 ¶ Ɛx 6At 7 = 4x/4r − d554e4r−d5t − 15, for any A1 > max824r − d5t1 09 and A2 > 0, we can also derive a computable error bound for Error c : Error c ¶ 6. Error Analysis for Our Pricing Method This section is devoted to the analysis on the errors associated with our pricing method, including the CTMC approximation error in Step 1 and the transform inversion error in Step 2. 6.1. The Transform Inversion Error in Step 2 According to Choudhury et al. (1994), the numerical inversion of double transforms in Step 2 may incur two types of errors: the discretization error and the truncation error. For simplicity, we assume r 6= d in the following analysis. For the discretely monitored Asian options, the discretization error for the double inversion (B2) is given by Error d = X X e−Aj 2ln vd 441 + 2l5n1 41 + 2j5k3 x50 j=0 l=0 not j=l=0 Note that vd 4n1 k3 x5 = Ɛx 64Bn − k5+ 7 ¶ Ɛx 6Bn 7 = x44e4r−d5ã4n+15 − 15/4e4r−d5ã − 155. Then for any ∈ 401 min8e−4r−d5ã 1 195 and A > 0, we can obtain the following computable error bound for Error d : Error d X X x ¶ = e4r−d5ã −1 e−Aj 2ln 6e4r−d5ã641+2l5n+17 −17 j=0 l=0 not j=l=0 x e4r−d5ã −1 e−A +4e4r−d5ã 52n −e−A 4e4r−d5ã 52n 41−e−A 561−4e4r−d5ã 52n 7 e−A +2n −e−A 2n − 1 (8) 41−e−A 541−2n 5 · e4r−d5ã4n+15 which implies that Error d = O4e−A 5 + O42n 5 as A → + and → 0. Therefore the discretization error can be controlled by properly specifying inversion parameters A and . For the numerical examples in this paper, we choose A = 20 and such that e−A = 2n . It follows from (8) that this setting is able to bound the discretization errors of the option prices by 10−6 . Similarly, for the continuously monitored Asian options, the discretization error for the double inversion (B1) is given by Error c = X X j=0 l=0 not j=l=0 e−4A1 j+A2 l5 vc 441 + 2j5t1 41 + 2l5k3 x50 X x X e−4A1 j+A2 l5 6e4r−d541+2j5t − 17 r − d j=0 l=0 not j=l=0 x e−A1 +24r−d5t + e−A2 − e−A1 −A2 +24r−d5t e4r−d5t r −d 41 − e−A1 +24r−d5t 541 − e−A2 5 e−A1 + e−A2 − e−A1 −A2 0 (9) − 41 − e−A1 541 − e−A2 5 = It follows that Error c = O4e−A1 5 + O4e−A2 5 as A1 → + and A2 → +. Namely, the discretization error has an exponential decay as A1 and A2 go to +. In our implementation, we set A1 = A2 = 20 based on (9) such that the discretization error is no greater than 10−6 . The truncation errors are related to the parameters m1 and m2 used in the Euler transformation E4m1 1 m2 5 in (B3), which is applied to accelerate the convergence of the partial sums to the corresponding infinite series in (B1) and (B2). As suggested by Abate and Whitt (1992), the truncation errors can be estimated by E4m1 1 m2 5 − E4m1 − 11 m2 5 and E4m1 1 m2 + 15 − E4m1 1 m2 5. Figure 1 plots the estimated truncation errors with respect to different choices of m1 (with the fixed m2 = 15) under the CEV model, Merton’s jump diffusion model, and the VG model and for different monitoring frequencies, n = 12, 50, 250, and + (continuously monitored). As we can see, the estimated truncation errors decay very fast as m1 increases. For instance, when m1 ¾ 30, all the errors are less than 10−6 except the continuously monitored Asian option under the VG model. In the latter case, the error is less than 10−5 that is still sufficiently small in practice. This might be due to the power decay of the moment generating function of the VG process. Nonetheless, this effect seems not significant in the discretely monitored cases under the VG model for commonly used discretely monitoring frequencies such as n = 12, 50, and 250. 6.2. The CTMC Approximation Error in Step 1 In Step 1, we approximate the targeted Markov process model with a CTMC. With the inversion errors in Step 2 controlled at a low level, the approximation error in Step 1 decreases as the number of states for the approximate CTMC increases. Figure 2 plots the absolute pricing errors for both discretely and continuously monitored Asian options obtained via our method with respect to an increasing number of states in the approximate CTMC, under the CIR model, Merton’s jump diffusion model and the VG model, respectively. The errors are estimated by Error4N 5 = Price4N 5 − Price4N ∗ 5, where Price4N 5 Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options 551 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS (Color online) The decay of the truncation errors of the double inversions. %STIMATEDTRUNCATIONERROR #%6MODEL ¾n n n n n∞ -ERTONSMODEL ¾n n n n n∞ 6'MODELDISCRETELYMONITORED !SIANOPTIONS n n n %STIMATEDTRUNCATIONERROR %STIMATEDTRUNCATIONERROR ¾n m m ¾n 6'MODELCONTINUOUSLYMONITORED !SIANOPTIONS n∞ m m Notes. The estimated truncation errors of the double inversions with respect to different choice of m1 and fixed m2 = 15. All the options computed in these figures are at the money. Other parameters are set as follows: the parameters for the CEV model are the same as in Table 4 ( = −0025); the parameters for Merton’s jump diffusion model are the same as in Table 6; the parameters for the VG model are the same as in Table 8 (case no. 2). represents the price computed by CTMC approximation with N states and N ∗ is a fixed large natural number. Here we set N ∗ = 11000. It can be seen from Figure 2 that for the discretely monitored Asian options, the logarithms of (Color online) The decay of the CTMC approximation errors for pricing Asian options. Error decay for ATM Asian options under CEV model Error decay for ATM Asian options under VG model Error decay for ATM Asian options under Merton’s model 10–1 10–1 Absolute error n = 12 n = 50 n = 250 n=∞ 10–2 10–3 10–4 1 10 absolute pricing errors are approximately linear in the logarithm of N and the slopes of the lines are about −2, which suggests that the absolute pricing errors appear to be proportional to 1/N 2 . For the continuously monitored Asian 102 N 103 10–1 10–2 Absolute error Figure 2. Absolute error Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. %STIMATEDTRUNCATIONERROR Figure 1. 10–3 10–4 10–5 1 10 102 N 103 10–2 10–3 10–4 1 10 102 103 N Notes. The absolute errors of discretely and continuously monitored Asian option prices obtained via our CTMC approximation with the number of states N = 25, 50, 100, 200, and 400. Left: The CEV model with the same parameters as in Table 4 ( = −0025). Middle: Merton’s jump diffusion model with the same parameters as in Table 6. Right: The VG model with the same parameters as in Table 8 (case no. 2). Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 552 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS options, the slopes of the decay lines in Figure 2 vary from −106 to −208, which suggests that the decay of the absolute pricing errors of our method appears to be at the speed of 1/N 106 to 1/N 208 . This is similar to the observation by Mijatović and Pistorius (2013) in the CTMC pricing of continuously monitored double barrier options, where they find that the absolute pricing error is approximately proportional to 1/N 102 to 1/N 2 under different models. (ii) Suppose that f is any bounded solution to the functional Equation (5). Define Z t Mt 2= f 4St 5e−t−At + e−u−Au du for t ¾ 00 Acknowledgments d x Ɛ 6f 4St+ 5e−4t+5−At+ Ft 7 d d = Ɛy 6f 4S 5e−−A 7y=St ·e−t−At d The authors thank the area editor Benjamin Van Roy, the associate editor, and three anonymous referees for their helpful comments. The first and third authors are grateful for the financial support from the General Research Fund of the Hong Kong Research Grants Council with project No. 16200614. The research of the second and third authors are supported in part by National University of Singapore Research Grants [R-146-000-180-133 and C-146-000-038-001]. Appendix A. Proof of Theorem 1 Mn 2= f 4Stn 5eStn · zn e−Bn + zk e−Bk = −Ɛy 6e−−A 7y=St ·e−t−At = −Ɛx 6e−4t+5−At+ Ft 71 where the second equality holds because of (A2). Then it follows that Ɛx 6f 4St+u 5e−4t+u5−At+u Ft 7 − Ɛx 6f 4St 5e−t−At 7 Z u =− Ɛx 6e−4t+5−At+ Ft 7 d0 Therefore, Ɛx 6Mt+u Ft 7 − Mt = − for n = 01 11 0 0 0 0 n−1 X zk e−Bk k=0 n−1 X zk e−Bk 1 < +1 1 − z (A1) where Pã f 4x5 2= Ɛx 6f 4Sã 57. On the other hand, for n ¾ 1, since eStn e−Bn = e−Bn−1 , Ɛx 6Mn F4n−15 7 − Mn−1 = zn e−Bn−1 Pã f 4Stn−1 5 + zn−1 e−Bn−1 − f 4Stn−1 5eStn−1 · zn−1 e−Bn−1 = zn−1 e−Bn−1 6zPã f 4Stn−1 5 + 1 − f 4Stn−1 5eStn−1 7 = 00 Therefore, 8Mn 1 n ¾ 09 is a martingale with respect to 8F4n5 1 n ¾ 09, and hence Ɛx 6Mn 7 = M0 = f 4x5. Letting n → + P k −Bk and noticing that limn→+ Mn = + almost surely, we k=0 z e obtain h i f 4x5 = lim E x 6Mn 7 = Ɛx lim Mn n→+ =Ɛ + X x Also, noticing that Mt ¶ C + Re45−1 < +, we conclude that 8Mt 1 t ¾ 09 is a martingale with respect to 8Ft 1 t ¾ 09. Then by the dominated convergence theorem, we obtain h i f 4x5 = M0 = lim Ɛx 6Mt 7 = Ɛx lim Mt t→ t→ Z = Ɛx e−u−Au du = m41 3 x50 0 k=0 ¶1+C + u 0 t Then we claim that 8Mn 2 n ¾ 09 is a martingale with respect to 8F4n5 1 n ¾ 09, where F4n5 2= Fnã . Indeed, on the one hand, = 1 + zPã f 4Stn 5zn e−Bn + Z Ɛx 6e−4t+5−At+ Ft 7 d Z t+u + Ɛx e−s−As ds Ft = 00 k=0 Mn ¶ f 4Stn 5eStn zn e−Bn + (A2) 0 Proof. (i) Suppose that f is any bounded solution to the functional Equation (4). Define n−1 X 0 We claim that d x Ɛ 6f 4St 5e−t−At 7 = −Ɛx 6e−t−At 70 dt If (A2) holds, we have n→+ zk e−Bk = l4z1 3 x51 k=0 where the second equality holds because of (A1) and the dominated convergence theorem. This implies that l4z1 3 x5 is the unique bounded solution to (4). To prove (A2), first note that for any fixed t ¾ 0, Ɛx 6f 4St+u 5e−4t+u5−At+u 7 − Ɛx 6f 4St 5e−t−At 7 u 1 x −4t+u5−At+u − f 4St+u 5e−t−At 7 = · 4Ɛ 6f 4St+u 5e u + Ɛx 6f 4St+u 5e−t−At − f 4St 5e−t−At 75 f 4St+u 54e−4t+u5−At+u − e−t−At 5 = Ɛx u 4f 4St+u 5 − f 4St 55e−t−At + Ɛx 0 u (A3) We intend to let u ↓ 0 on both sides of (A3). For the first term on the right-hand side (RHS) of (A3), when u ∈ 401 u0 5 with any fixed u0 > 0, f 4St+u 54e−4t+u5−At+u − e−t−At 5 u Ru f 4St+u 5 0 4− − St+s 5e−4t+s5−At+s ds = u CZ u ¶ + St+s · e−4t+s5−At+s ds u 0 ¶ C · + max Ss ¶ C · + max Ss 0 t¶s¶t+u 0¶s¶t+u0 Cai, Song, and Kou: A General Framework for Pricing Asian Options 553 Operations Research 63(3), pp. 540–554, © 2015 INFORMS Appendix B. Double Transform Inversion Formulas By Doob’s inequality, Ɛx h i max Ss ¶ 41 − e−1 5−1 41 + Ɛx 6St+u0 log St+u0 75 0¶s¶t+u0 Downloaded from informs.org by [137.132.123.69] on 02 July 2015, at 02:16 . For personal use only, all rights reserved. 1+ ¶ C1 + C2 · Ɛx 6St+u 7 < +1 0 for some C1 1 C2 > 0, where the second inequality holds because x log x ¶ C3 + x1+ for some C3 > 0. Therefore, applying the dominated convergence theorem yields lim Ɛx u↓0 f 4St+u 54e−4t+u5−At+u − e−t−At 5 u (A4) For the second term on the RHS of (A3), by Proposition 1.1.5 in Ethier and Kurtz (2005) we obtain 4f 4St+u 5 − f 4St 55e−t−At u e−t−At = Ɛx 4Ɛx 6f 4St+u 5 Ft 7 − f 4St 55 u Z u −t−At e = Ɛx Ɛx 6Gf 4St+s 5 Ft 7 ds u 0 Z u −t−At e = Ɛx Gf 4St+s 5 ds 0 u 0 4f 4St+u 5 − f 4St 55e−t−At u Ru Gf 4St+s 5 ds −t−At x 0 = Ɛ lim e u↓0 u = Ɛ 6Gf 4St 5 · e 70 X X e−4A1 j+A2 k5 f 441 + 2j5t1 1 41 + 2k5t2 50 j=0 k=0 not j=k=0 n−1 X eA/2 X 4−15j+1 4−15k n 4n t j=− k=−n A i ij − − 1 e4ik5/n − eg 1 ·g̃ 2t t t (B2) eg = X X e−Aj 2kn g441 + 2j5t1 41 + 2k5n50 j=0 k=0 not j=k=0 −t−At ef = where Then it follows from the dominated convergence theorem that x (B1) where g4t1 n5 = Z u −t−At ¶ C + max Ss + 10 Gf 4St+s 5 ds e 0 t¶s¶t+u u u↓0 X e4A1 +A2 5/2 X 4−15j+1 4−15k+1 4t1 t2 j=− k=− A1 i ij A2 i ik · f˜ − − 1 − − −ef 1 2t1 t1 t1 2t2 t2 t2 Similarly, we use the formula below to evaluate g4t1 n5 from its Z-Laplace transform g̃4t1 n5 Since Gf 4x5 = 4 + x5f 4x5 − 1 ¶ 4 + x5C + 1, we have lim Ɛx f 4t1 1t2 5 = = Ɛx 6f 4St 54− − St 5e−t−At 70 Ɛx To numerically invert the double transforms involved in our pricing algorithms for both discretely and continuously monitored Asian options, we shall use the transform inversion algorithms proposed by Choudhury et al. (1994). Specifically, to evaluate f 4t1 1 t2 5 from its double-Laplace transform f˜4t1 1 t2 5, we have The involved parameters, i.e., A1 > 0 and A2 > 0 in (B1) and A > 0 and ∈ 401 15 in (B2), are chosen to control the errors of the corresponding inversion formulas. P j Besides, when evaluating series of the form + j=0 4−15 aj in the formulas (B1) and (B2), we can accelerate the convergence via P j Euler transformation. Namely, we approximate + j=0 4−15 aj by E4m1 1 m2 5 2= (A5) m1 X m1 ! 2−m1 Sm2 +j 1 j!4m − j5! 1 j=0 (B3) Now letting u ↓ 0 on both sides of (A3) and using (A4) and (A5) yields Pj where Sj 2= k=0 4−15k ak . We set two parameters m1 = 10 and m2 = 15 in our implementation. 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Zhang B, Oosterlee C (2013) Efficient pricing of European-style Asian options under exponential Lévy processes based on Fourier cosine expansions. SIAM J. Financial Math. 4(1):399–426. Ning Cai is an associate professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering and Logistics Management at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. His research interests include financial engineering, stochastic modeling, and applied probability. Yingda Song is an associate professor in the Department of Statistics and Finance at the University of Science and Technology of China. His research interests focus on financial engineering, simulation, stochastic modeling, and applied probability. Steven Kou is the director of the Risk Management Institute and a Provost’s Chair Professor of Mathematics at the National University of Singapore. His research interests are in quantitative finance, applied probability, and statistics. He is the winner of the 2002 Erlang Prize awarded by the Applied Probability Society of INFORMS. He is currently the Vice Chair of Applied Probability for the Financial Service Section of INFORMS.
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