Market Prices and
Production levels of honey
In Vermont and North
Dakota
By: By Connor Williams
For: CDAE 295 Data Management and Analysis
Professor: Chyi Lyi Liang
Market Prices and Production levels of honey
In Vermont and North Dakota
Abstract:
Honey production in Vermont happens on a much smaller scale than in North
Dakota. The question this study attempts to answer is: What makes this difference
in scale? and what other differences or similarities are there?. The Price level of
honey in Vermont and North Dakota is on the rise but the market is not thriving
accordingly. The price of honey in Vermont has been rising rapidly but the amount
of honey produced and the number of colonies in Vermont has been declining at a
similar rate. In North Dakota the price has been steadily rising but the amount of
honey produced has not been keeping up with the rising price level despite a more
rapid increase in the number of colonies in the state. The gap between production
and price is more evident in Vermont than in North Dakota because North Dakota is
a much larger state and contributor to the nations agriculture, which depends on
pollination from honeybees.
Introduction:
One reason I chose this topic because I enjoy honey on many of my food and
for cooking. I also enjoy many of the local recipes that use Vermont honey as an
ingredient. I also have some history in my family with beekeeping and honey
production. My grand father used to farm his own honey in Vermont as a hobby. He
and my father share many stories with me about the education and resolve they
experienced while farming bees for their own honey.
I am concerned about the agriculture in my home state as well as the United
States and because honeybees and the honey they produce plays an important role I
found it to be an interesting topic to investigate. I was born and raised in the small
town of Bradford Vermont, which was a host of many dairy and produce farms. The
farmers have had bad crops in recent years. Some so bad it made the front page of
the local newspaper. Sometimes they blamed the weather and other times they
blamed poor pollination. I have also taken some classes during my course study at
the University of Vermont that emphasized the importance of pollination for all
types of agriculture and ecosystems.
The economic benefit that comes from honeybees pollinating abilities and
honey production was another large reason for my interest in this topic. The
national economy is, as we know in recession. Vermont’s economy is no exception. I
was interested to see if those involved in honeybee farming were affected by the
economy and just how large this market is in Vermont and North Dakota. Knowing
that they are both agricultural states, although North Dakota has much larger scale
agriculture than Vermont I thought comparing these two states might yield some
interesting results.
This topic is important because if honeybees were to become non-existent so
would a beloved sweetener and a valuable ingredient to many recipes. A rich culture
and tradition along with a masterful trade would be lost and bee farmers would
become unemployed.
The nations agriculture would be put at risk because honeybees are a large
contributor to pollinating crops. Small local farms and large scale farming
operations would both be put at great risk if the honeybees are not plentiful enough
and if they are not being farmed due to poor returns on honey sales. The economic
benefit of agriculture and the necessity of food warrant a closer look at honey
production. The economic benefit of honey production is also important because
many family operations as well as professional large-scale farmers make a living out
of producing honey.
I expect to find a correlation between the price of honey, production level in
pounds, and the number of colonies in Vermont and North Dakota, as well as a
correlation in these variables between the two states. I expect to find how the
number of colonies and pounds produced influences the price of honey. I also expect
to find how changing prices affect the number of colonies and amount of honey
produced. I also expect to see some kind of evidence of external influences on honey
production through examining the production and price level statistics.
Literature Review:
There are many factors that influence the production of honey and there are
many factors and influences that the industry can withstand. A study about
Africanized Honey Bees that migrated to the U.S. in large numbers was done in
2010. This new species raised a lot of concern in regards to environmental and
economic results. They found that it caused a significant shift in the production. This
means that the industry “shifted” many aspects such as location, and concentration
of honey production (Livanis, G., & Moss, C. B. 2010). However their study found
that this new species of bee did not make a persistent enough shift to be considered
a significant influence on the honey industry.
Another article that explains an influence on honey production was an article
from the Wall Street Journal that focused on the price of honey in relation to
production levels and import tariffs. In the article they explain how the government
put an import tariff on honey coming from Argentina and China. It explained how
the honey from china had some health concerns regarding antibiotics. It also
explained that often times the quality of honey from these countries is more like
“sugar water” than honey (Flandez, R. 2003). The increasing price and decreasing
competition has benefitted the beekeepers but there is now pressure on the
beekeepers to lower their prices (Flandez, R. 2003).
An article from The Magazine of Food, Farm & Resource Issues raised
questions about how much support the government should be giving this industry.
In the article it states that the “9 billion dollars” given to the U.S honey industry is
unjustified (Muth, M. K., & Thurman, W. N. 1995). They raise a lot of questions about
substitute pollination organisms however they state that “honeybees are
responsible for 70% of the pollination for apricots” and that 54% of the apricot crop
would be lost if they were to go extinct (Muth, M. K., & Thurman, W. N. 1995).
An article from USA Today explained how the U.S is losing its bees and
beekeepers. The article explains that a recent issue is seeing “the whole colony
dying off or being very weak” (Heather, C. 2008). This creates huge difficulties for
beekeepers. It means that beekeepers have to have more colonies in order to
maintain a sustainable production level and it discourages people from moving into
the industry (Heather, C. 2008).
An article from the New York Times discusses how North Dakota is a huge
hotspot for honey production and how the beekeepers are passionate about their
work (Hesser, A. 2002). It describes the declining production and some
discouragement among beekeepers. It explains how beekeepers take pride in their
job and that they are saddened by the loss of production that has been evident in
recent years (Hesser, A. 2002). It describes how it is a masterful trade and that
successful beekeepers understand the behaviors and patterns of their bees and
respect them.
Data Source:
The data used for this research was taken from the USDA National
Agricultural Statistics Service. I used the QuickStats search query on there website
to get data on: the amount of honey produced in pounds, the number of colonies,
and the price per pound of honey in North Dakota and Vermont. I found data on
each of these variables from 1987 to 2012. I used excel to calculate statistical
analysis including: Mean, Median, Mode, Range, Kurtosis, Skewness, Standard
Deviation. I also used excel to calculate correlation coefficients between the
different variables for each state as well as the correlation coefficients between the
variables of the two states. I calculated regression and ANOVA statistics for the
variables of honey production in each state and calculated a future linear estimate
formula for future honey production prices.
Graph Description Vermont Pounds produced:
The graph below shows the linear time series data for the production of honey
measured in pounds in Vermont. The black line of best fit represents the overall
trend of production and the red line represents the change in production for each
year. The graph depicts a decline in the production of honey in the state of Vermont
from 1987 to 2012.
Mean: The average number of pounds
produced was 382423.
Median: The middle value of pounds
produced was 372000.
Mode: N/A.
The kurtosis result of .18 shows that the
distribution for pounds of honey produced
in Vermont was relatively flat. The
skewness result of .539 shows that the
distribution was not overwhelmingly
skewed to the earlier or later years. There
was a very high range result of 451000
because of the dramatic difference in
pounds produced in 2002 and 2011. The
regression line shows that the amount of
honey being produced has been decreasing since 1987.
Graph Description Vermont Colonies:
The graph below shows the linear time series data for the number of colonies in
Vermont each year since 1987. The black line of best fit represents the overall trend
of the number of colonies present. The green line shows how many colonies are
present annually. The graph depicts a decline in the amount of colonies present in
the state since 1987.
Vermont have been decreasing.
Mean: The average number of colonies was
5692.
Median: The middle number of pounds
produced was 6000.
Mode: The most common value was 6000.
The distribution for honey bee colonies in
Vermont was shown to be fairly peaked with
a kurtosis reading of -.87. There was a very
large range in the number of colonies
because of the large peak in 2000-2004 and
the minimum in 2011> The distribution had
many large peaks and valleys and therefore
was not very skewed. The regression line
shows that the number of colonies in
Graph Description Value of honey in Vermont in cents per pound:
The Graph below shows the linear time series data for the Value of honey in
Vermont in cents per pound. The black line of best fit represents the overall trend of
honey value in Vermont. The purple line represents the value of honey in Vermont
annually. The graph depicts an increase in the value of honey in Vermont since
1987.
Mean: The average value of Vermont honey is
126.423.
Median: The middle number of pounds produced
was 91.
Mode: the most common value was 91.
The distribution was relatively flat with a kurtosis
rating of .8. The distribution was heavily skewed
towards the most recent observations for the value
of Vermont honey with a skewness reading of
1.288. There was a relatively high range which
shows along with the trend line that althought the
production of Vermont honey has been decreasing
the value has been increasing.
Graph Description North Dakota pounds produced:
This graph below shows the linear time series data for the production of honey in
North Dakota since 1987. The black line of best fit shows the overall trend of honey
production and the purple line shows the amount of honey produced annually. The
graph depicts an increase in honey production since 1987.
Mean: The average number of pounds
produced was 27895192.
Median: The middle number of pounds
produced was 28160000.
Mode: N/A.
The distribution was not very skewed or
peaked with kurtosis reading of .27 and a
skewness reading of .37. There was a very
high range reading because of the
minimum in 1988 and the peak in 2010.
The trend line shows that the production
of honey has been increasing in North
Dakota.
Graph Description Colonies in North Dakota:
The graph below shows the linear time series data for the number of colonies in
North Dakota each year since 1987. The black line of best fit represents the overall
trend of the number of colonies present. The green line shows how many colonies
are present annually. The graph depicts a decline in the amount of colonies present
in the state since 1987.
Mean: The average number of colonies was
317500.
Median: 300000 was the middle number of
colonies.
Mode: The most common number of colonies
was 220000.
The distribution showed a very negative
kurtosis reading at -.7 which explains the large
“dip” or vally in the mid range of the
distribution. It was shown to be very skewed
towards the earlier observations with a
skewness reading of .69 and the trend line
shows that the number of bee colonies in north
Dakota have greatly increased since 1987.
Graph Description Value of honey in North Dakota in cents per pound:
The Graph below shows the linear time series data for the Value of honey in North
Dakota in cents per pound. The black line of best fit represents the overall trend of
honey value in North Dakota. The purple line represents the value of honey in North
Dakota annually. The graph depicts an increase in the value of honey in North
Dakota since 1987.
Mean: The average value of North Dakota Honey is
88.8 cents per pound.
Median: The middle value of honey was 71.5.
Mode: The most common value of honey was 136
cents.
The Kurtosis reading of 0.45 shows that the
distribution did not have a balanced peak. The
data was heavily skewed towards the most recent
observations with a reading of .87 and the trend
line shows that the value of north Dakota honey
has been increased dramatically.
Vermont Correlation Coefficients
The relationship between the number of colonies in Vermont and the
number of pounds of honey produced was shown to be a strong positive
relationship with a coefficient of .72. If the number of colonies in Vermont increases
the number of pounds produced is very likely to increase.
The relationship between the value of Vermont honey and the number of
pounds of honey produced was shown to be a weak negative relationship with a
coefficient of -.42. If the number of pounds of honey produced in Vermont decreases,
it is not very likely that the price will decrease.
The relationship between the price of Vermont honey in cents per pound and
the number of colonies in Vermont was shown to be a weak negative relationship
with a coefficient of -.56. If the number of colonies in Vermont decreases it is not
very likely that the price of honey in Vermont will decrease.
North Dakota Correlation Coefficient
The relationship between the number of colonies in North Dakota and the
number of pounds of honey produced was shown to be a strong positive
relationship with a coefficient of .74. If the number of colonies in North Dakota
increases it is very likely that the number of pounds produced in North Dakota will
increase.
The relationship between the value of honey in North Dakota in cents per
pound was shown to be a weak positive relationship with a coefficient of .56. If the
number of pounds produced it is slightly likely that the value in cents per pound will
increase.
The relationship between cents per pound and the number of colonies in
North Dakota was shown to be a strong positive relationship with a coefficient of
.83. If the number of colonies in North Dakota increases it is very likely that the
value in cent per pound will increase
Combined Vermont/ North Dakota Correlation Coefficients
The relationship between Pounds produced in North Dakota and Vermont was shown to be a weak negative
relationship with a coefficient of -.28. If the amount of honey produced in North Dakota decreases it is not very likely that the
amount of honey produced in Vermont will decrease.
The relationship between the number of colonies in North Dakota and pounds of honey produced in Vermont was
shown to be a weak negative correlation with a coefficient of -.408. If the number of colonies in North Dakota decrease it is not
very likely that the amount of honey in Vermont will decrease.
The relationship between the value of honey in North Dakota in cents per pound and the amount of honey produced in
Vermont was shown to be a weak negative relationship with a coefficient of -.259. If the value of honey in North Dakota
decreases it is not very likely that the amount of honey produced in Vermont will decrease.
The relationship of the pounds of honey produced in North Dakota and the number of colonies in Vermont was shown
to be a weak negative relationship with a coefficient of -.34. If the amount of honey produced in North Dakota decreases it is
not very likely that the amount of colonies in Vermont will decrease.
The relationship between the number of colonies in North Dakota and the number of colonies in Vermont was shown to
be a weak negative correlation with a coefficient of -.48. If the number of colonies in North Dakota decrease it is not very likely
that the number of colonies in Vermont will decrease.
The relationship between the value of honey in North Dakota in cents per pound and the number of colonies in
Vermont was shown to be a weak negative correlation with a coefficient of -.49. If the value of honey in North Dakota
decreases it is not very likely that the number of colonies in Vermont will decrease.
The relationship between the amount of honey produced in North Dakota and the value of honey in Vermont in cents
per pound was shown to be a strong positive relationship with a coefficient of .716. If the amount of honey produced in North
Dakota increases it is likely that the price of honey in Vermont will increase.
The relationship between the number of colonies in North Dakota and the value of honey in Vermont in cents per
pound was shown to be a strong positive correlation with a coefficient of .90. If the number of colonies in North Dakota
increases it is very likely that the value of honey in Vermont will increase.
The relationship between the value of honey in North Dakota and the value of honey in Vermont in cents per pound was
shown to be a strong positive correlation with a coefficient of .90. If the price of honey increases in North Dakota it is likely
that the price of honey in Vermont will increase.
Regression and ANOVA Statistics
Vermont
31.3% of the total variation for the price of Vermont honey in cents per pound can be calculated using X1: Vermont
Pounds and X2: Vermont Colonies.
To predict the future price of honey in Vermont you would use the following formula:
(Estimated price of honey in Vermont)= 334.05- .000189 * (X1: Vermont Honey Production in Pounds) - .035 * (X2: Vermont
Colonies)
The Significance F can measure the accuracy of this regression analysis; in this case the F value is .0134, which means it
is very accurate because it is such a small value.
North Dakota Regression and ANOVA Statistics
69.7% of the total variation for the price of North Dakota honey in cents per pound can be calculated using X1: North
Dakota Pounds and X2: North Dakota Colonies.
To predict the future price of honey in North Dakota you would use the following formula:
(Estimated price of honey in North Dakota)= -27.106- .00000067 * (X1: North Dakota Honey Production in Pounds) - .000423
* (X2: North Dakota Colonies)
The Significance F can measure the accuracy of this regression analysis; in this case the F value is .00000108, which
means it is very accurate because it is such a small value.
Conclusions:
The production of honey in pounds has been decreasing in Vermont since
1987. The number of colonies has also been decreasing. Despite the decreased
production the price of Vermont honey has been increasing. This may be because
larger prodders of honey are flooding the market with cheaper honey and Vermont
has begun to produce smaller quantities of higher quality or organic honey. The
Quantity of honey produced in North Dakota has been increasing since 1987 and the
number of colonies has been increasing but the number of colonies has been more
dependant on what price the honey is being sold for rather than how many pounds
are being produced. The price of honey in North Dakota is closely correlated and
responsive to the price of honey in Vermont. However the amount of honey
produced in each state did not seem to have much of an impact on price or
production in the other. Vermont’s production and price change patters were much
more erratic and difficult to predict. One reason may be because there are fewer
operations and less honey being produced to withstand external influences. Another
may be because there is less agriculture dependant on the honeybees so it allows
the population and productivity to change without much consequence. The
production and price change patterns in North Dakota were much more predictable.
One reason may be that there are more operations and a larger amount of honey
being produced and therefore making this states operations more resistant to
external influences. Another reason my be that there is much more agriculture
dependant on the honeybees in this state and may therefore put more pressure on
the quantity and productivity of these bees. Overall the honey industries in these
two states were very different besides the strong correlation with increasing honey
prices. If I had more time I would analyze more states and more variables for each
state. If would also study the influence of agriculture and the need for pollination in
each state. You could also study the global market of honey production and the same
variables of other countries that produce honey. If I were to have this information I
would be able to complete more accurate and meaningful study on the production of
honey and provide more information.
References:
Livanis, G., & Moss, C. B. (2010). The effect of Africanized honeybees on honey
production in the United States: An informational approach. Ecological
Economics, 69(4), 895-904. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.11.013
Flandez, R. (2003, August 8). Pressure on Honey Prices May Sting Beekeepers in U.S.
Wall Street Journal - Eastern Edition. p. C1.
Muth, M. K., & Thurman, W. N. (1995). Why support the price of honey? Choices: The
Magazine Of Food, Farm & Resource Issues, 10(2), 19.
Heather, C. (n.d). USA is losing its bees, beekeepers. USA Today.
Hesser, A. (2002, Jul 31). In the clover, A bee nirvana. New York Times (1923-Current
File). Retrieved from