Statistics and Probability 14_Overview of Learning Plan
(Year 4) ACMSP092, ACMSP093, ACMSP094, NSW MA2 19SP
Order chance, chance affecting chance.
THIS IS A SUMMARY OF THE LEARNING PLAN, DESCRIBING THE SEQUENCE OF LEARNING WHICH WILL OCCUR OVER MULTIPLE LESSONS. COMPLETE LEARNING PLAN STARTS ON THE NEXT PAGE.
Order the
possibility of
chance events
using the
language of
chance.
Describe
situations where
one outcome
does and does
not affect the
outcome of
another event.
Children:
Children
►

Order the possibility of chance events from most to least
likely.

Order chance words to explain the likelihood of events
from most to least likely.


►
►
Describe situations where one outcome prevents
alternate outcomes in chance events.
Describe situations where one outcome has no effect on
other outcomes.
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►
ask one another questions about the likelihood of chance
events, and chance affecting chance in everyday
situations.
What chance word could we use to describe the likelihood
of this event happening?
Which event is more likely?
Which event is less likely?
►
Could we place some of these chance words next to each
event to describe its likelihood?
►
Could we say that in one roll a 4 cannot be rolled if a 6 is
rolled?
►
Could we say that when we spin the arrow once, the one
outcome cannot occur if the other occurs?
►
What outcomes are possible if we roll each die one time?
►
Are the possible outcomes on each die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6?
►
If we get a 6 on the first die, can we still get a 6 on the
second die?
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Statistics and Probability 14_Explicit Learning Plan
(Year 4) ACMSP092, ACMSP093, ACMSP094, NSW MA2 19SP
THIS IS THE FULL LEARNING PLAN, WITH DETAILS OF ACTIONS AND QUESTIONS THAT MAY BE USED TO DEVELOP DEEP UNDERSTANDING OVER MULTIPLE LESSONS.
Order chance of familiar everyday events occurring from most likely to least likely
Identify everyday events where one cannot happen if the other happens
Identify events where the chance of one occurring not affected by occurrence of other.
Resources: dice, spinners, pencil, paper
EXPLICIT LEARNING
Focuses
children’s
Children think about, talk and listen to a friend about, then have the
thoughts on the opportunity to share what they already know.
concept,
exposing
current
understanding
and any
misconceptions.
Introduces
Today brings an investigation about chance.
What do you know about chance?
Talk about chance with a friend.
Is anyone ready to share what they are thinking about
chance?
Today we’re going to order the chance of events occurring
from most likely to least likely.
ordering the
chance of
events
occurring from
most likely to
least likely.
Here we have some cards with events recorded on them.
Let’s select one event and describe the chance of the event
occurring.
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Display a card with an
event recorded on it, for
example,
Select one chance event card, for example,
What chance word could we use to describe the likelihood
of this event happening?
Is it certain that Ellen will win?
Is it likely that Ellen will win?
Is it unlikely that Ellen will win?
Does Ellen have an equal chance of winning and not
winning?
Let’s place this chance event card here and select another
chance event card
Select another chance event card, for example,
What chance word could we use to describe the likelihood
of this event happening?
Is it likely that Alice will roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6?
Is it unlikely that Alice will roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6?
Is it certain that Alice will roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6?
Let’s place these 2 chance event cards in order of their
likelihood.
Which event is more likely?
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Let’s place it here at the top.
Which event is less likely?
Let’s place it lower down
Place the ‘certain’ chance
event card at the top, for
example,
Let’s select another chance event card
Place the equally likely
chance event card under it,
for example
Let’s determine the likelihood of the event occurring.
Let’s place the chance event card in order of likelihood with
the other chance event cards
Children select other chance event cards.
Children determine the likelihood of the event occurring.
Children place the chance event cards in order of their likelihood
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Display some chance words, for example,
How could we describe the likelihood of each event
occurring?
Could we place some of these chance words next to each
event to describe its likelihood?
Children record events whose likelihood could be described using the
chance words, for example, children may select the ‘unlikely’ chance
word and suggest ‘I will roll 2 sixes in a row with a standard die’
Could we think of some events whose likelihood could be
described using some of these chance words?
What even can you think of that is unlikely?
What event can you think of that is certain?
What event can you think of that is 50 – 50?
Allow children time now to engage in guided and independent investigation of
ordering the chance of events occurring from most likely to least likely.
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Introduces
identifying
everyday
events where
one cannot
happen if
another
happens.
►
Today we’re going to investigate the occurrence of
events
►
Here we have a die
►
What outcomes are possible if we roll the die?
►
Are the possible outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6?
►
How many of these outcomes are possible with one roll
of the die?
►
Is only one of these outcomes possible each time we roll
the die?
►
Is it possible to roll a 6 and 4 in the same roll?
►
If one of these numbers occur in rolling a die once, none
of the others can
►
In one roll, if we roll 6, can we also roll 4?
►
Could we say that in one roll a 4 cannot be rolled if a 6 is
rolled?
►
How could we describe these outcomes?
►
Could we say that when we roll a die once, the one
outcome cannot occur if the other occurs?
Record, for example, ‘when we roll a die one time, one outcome
cannot occur if the other outcome occurs’
►
When else does one outcome occurring mean that no
other outcome can occur?
Display a spinner, for example,
►
What about with spinners?
►
What outcomes are possible if we spin the arrow?
►
Are the possible outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8?
Display a standard six-sided die, for example,
Record, for example, ‘in one roll, only one outcome is possible’
Record, for example, ‘It is not possible to roll a 4 and a 6 in one roll’
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►
How many of these outcomes are possible with one spin
of the arrow?
►
Is only one of these outcomes possible each time we spin
the arrow?
►
Is it possible for the arrow to stop at a 6 and 4 in the
same spin?
►
If one of these numbers occur in spinning the arrow
once, none of the others can
►
In one spin, if the arrow stops at 6, can it also stop at 4?
►
Could we say that in one spin a 4 cannot be stopped at if
a 6 is stopped at?
►
So the arrow can stop in only one segment for a
single spin
►
How could we describe these outcomes?
►
If 6 is the outcome of the spin, no other number can
occur
►
The spinner is designed so that the outcome of a
spin gives one and only one result
►
Could we say that when we spin the arrow once, the one
outcome cannot occur if the other occurs?
Record, for example, ‘in one spin, only one outcome is possible’
Record, for example, ‘It is not possible to spin a 4 and a 6 in one roll’
Record, for example, ‘when we spin the arrow one time, one
outcome cannot occur if the other outcome occurs’
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Introduces
identifying
everyday
events where
the chance of
one occurring
is not affected
by the
occurrence of
the other.
►
So we’ve looked at outcomes that cannot occur if
another outcome occurs
►
Could we also look at outcomes that are not affected by
the occurrence of another event? Let’s investigate!
►
Here we have 2 dice
►
What outcomes are possible if we roll each die one time?
►
Are the possible outcomes on each die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6?
►
If we get a 6 on the first die, can we still get a 6 on the
second die?
►
Does getting a 6 on the first die affect our chance of
getting a 6 on the second die?
►
Does getting a 6 on the first die affect our chance of
getting any number on the second die?
►
How could we describe these outcomes?
►
If 6 is the outcome of the roll of the first die, what
outcomes could we get from the roll of the second die?
►
Could we still get 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 on the second die?
►
Could we say that when we roll the first die, the outcome
does not affect the outcome of the roll of the second
die?
►
Could we say that when the outcome of the roll of the
second die is not affected by the outcome of the roll of
the first die?
Display 2 dice, for example,
Record, for example, ‘the outcomes of the roll of each die is 1, 2, 3, 4,
5 or 6’
Record, for example, ‘Getting a 6 on the roll of one die does not
affect the chance of getting 6 on the second die’
Record, for example, ‘the outcome of the roll of one die does not
affect the outcome of the roll of another die’
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Display a spinner, for example,
►
What about with spinners?
Record, for example, ‘the outcomes of
each spin is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 , 7 or 8’
►
What outcomes are possible if we spin the arrow?
►
Are the possible outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8?
►
If we spin the arrow twice, is each of these outcomes
possible each time?
►
Is it possible for the arrow to stop at a 6 in both spins?
►
If we get a 6 on the first spin, can we still get a 6 on the
second spin?
►
Does getting a 6 on the first spin affect our chance of
getting a 6 on the second spin?
►
Does getting a 6 on the first spin affect our chance of
getting any number on the second spin?
►
How could we describe these outcomes?
►
If 6 is the outcome of the first spin, what outcomes could
we get from the second spin?
►
Could we still get 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8 on the second
spin?
►
Could we say that when we spin the arrow, the outcome
does not affect the outcome of the second spin?
►
Could we say that when the outcome of the second spin
is not affected by the outcome of the first spin?
Record, for example, ‘Getting a 6 on one spin does not affect the
chance of getting 6 on the second spin’
Record, for example, ‘the outcome of one spin does not affect the
outcome of another spin’
Allow children time now to engage in guided and independent investigation of
ordering the chance of events occurring from most likely to least likely.
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Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @learn4teach
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Chance Event Cards back
Ellen wins a prize in a
competition in which she
has half of the tickets.
Donald wins a prize in a
competition in which he
has all of the tickets.
Sally wins a prize in a
competition in which she
has no tickets.
It will be sunny
tomorrow.
A bus will drive past in
the next hour.
Lilly chooses a red apple
from a bag with 8 red
apples and 5 green
apples.
Harry will roll a 6 with a
standard six-sided die.
Alice will roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
or 6 with a standard sixsided die.
Fred buys a carton of eggs The arrow will stop on red The arrow will stop on red
from a furniture store.
on this spinner.
on this spinner.
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The arrow will stop on
red on this spinner.
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Chance Words back
never
equal chance
no chance
possible
always
probable
impossible
certain
likely
unlikely
more likely
50 - 50
maybe
might
very likely
very unlikely
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